Fantasy Football Daily - Scott Barrett's 2023 Rookie RB Dynasty Rankings

Episode Date: June 6, 2023

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) argues that this "deep" rookie running back class isn't actually all that great for fantasy. Find out why as he ranks the 2023 rookie RBs for dynasty purposes. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league -- like Scott? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Okay. Bejohn Robinson is the easy 101 in rookie drafts. Duh. Everyone already knows that. But what if I told you there's another running back in this class being overshadowed by Bijan Robinson, who is already a top three overall running back in dynasty leagues.

I'm talking startups. All offseason, I've argued that this is not really a great fantasy running back class. NFL draft punants have said this is the deepest running back class in recent memory. That may be true, but in fantasy we should care more about good than deep. I saw only two running backs with realistic league winning potential, and then a bunch of running backs who profiled as committee backs. On top of that, I didn't see a lot of valuable landing spots. After a great free agency class and an especially deep running back class, I saw a lot of good running backs, but very few open jobs for a Bell Cow RB. And unfortunately, that seems to be right. I really like the top two running backs on my rookie rankings, but after that, things get a lot more murky. Even today,

it may seem as though some of these running backs had a great landing spot, but Ezekiel, Elliott, Leonard Fernett and Cream Hunt are still available in free agency. Without further ado, here are my top five rookie running backs in this class, plus my favorite sleeper. My RB1, no surprise, is Bejan Robinson. The most predictive rushing metrics we have to project running backs the next level are mistackles forced and yards after contact. That's true in all of its various iterations.

Yards after contact per attempt, total yards after contact, mistackles for, per touch, per reception, per carry, things of that nature. Well, by career yards after contact per attempt, Bijon Robinson ranks behind only Travis Etienne since 2014. He ranks second in PFF college history by career mistackles force per touch. He's just one mistackle shy of supplanting Giovante Williams for first on that list. He forced 112 mistackles in 2022. That was the most by any running back since at least 2014. By nearly every measure, my model is saying Bijon Robinson is probably the best pure runner to come out in nearly a decade. But of course, Robinson's rushing prowess is only part of the equation. Remember, in fantasy football, targets are worth roughly 2.5 times as much as a

carry in PPR leagues. But luckily, Robinson also profiles as a high-end receiver, both by usage and efficiency. Over the last two seasons, Robinson has seen a position best eight deep targets that's well above Jamir Gibbs zero and only one shy of Stanford wide receiver Michael Wilson Wilson over the same span. His 6.8 ADOT in 2022 wasn't far off that of tight ends Will Mallory and Sam Laporta. In other words, he offers a great deal more than your typical good pass catching back, who gains the bulk of the receiving yardage on short dumpoffs when the quarterback is facing pressure. Bijon Robinson is a true multi-dimensional receiver. He also averages 10.4 yards per target in his career. That's the second most by any running back since 2016, behind only Travis

Etienne. And keep in mind, that number is also above wide receivers like Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, and Zay Flowers. Since 2014, there's only three power five running backs to average over 100 rushing yards per game and over 25 receiving yards per game in their career. Christian McCaffrey, Saquan Barkley, Bijan Robinson. That's the end of the list. To me, Robinson is the last of the bell cows,

like the last the maheagans. The bellcows are a dying breed in fantasy. And because of that, the few true bell cows due to positional scarcity are among the most valuable players in all of fantasy, and all of dynasty.

And that's still somehow underselling it. To me, Robinson profiles is the best running back to come out since Christian McCaffrey. I would put him above Sequan Berkeley as well. Barclay's a little more athletic, and he was the more prolific pass catcher, but Robinson definitely seems to be the better runner. Bejohn's top 10 draft capital was ideal,

especially in today's day and age where running backs are devalued, and the landing spot seems solid on paper. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts despite a 7-10 record. Truthfully, I don't really trust the head coach Arthur Smith all that much. He just kind of seems like a moron, and so I think there's a chance he isn't used. as optimally as we want. I just don't think it really matters because I'm skeptical Smith will even be with the team

next season. That's the only possible concern, but otherwise, Bijan, yeah, easy 101 in rookie picks, a round one pick and dynasty startups as the first running back off the board. My RB2 is Jemir Gibbs, the player I teased at the top of this video. He's easily the best past catching running back to enter the NFL in at least five years. I don't think anyone can question that. Since 2014 and among all Power 5 running backs, Jamir Gibbs holds the best ever season by depth adjusted yards per target over expectation,

the best season by yards after the catch per reception, the second best ever season by yards per route run, behind only 2015 Christian McCaffrey, and his career yards per route run is better than that of Jalen Hyatt, Dalton Kincaid, and Zay Flowers. Since 2006, there's only one other Power 5 player to average more than 51 rushing and more than 38 receiving yards per game in their career. And that's Percy Harvin.

So there's no question Gibbs is an elite receiver. The big question is, can he ever come close to matching Austin Eccler, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey in rushing volume? Or is he destined to become the next Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, or D'Andre Swift. To be honest, I was pretty optimistic on this point pre-draft. He basically tied Zach Charbonnet and career yards after contact per attempt, and career mistackles force per attempt. But there were definitely some concerns.

He wasn't a true belcow in college. He received far less rushing work than Charbonnet, and his usage really wasn't ideal. He was rarely used in between the tackles, was rarely used in short yardage situations and at the goal line, and he was never really effective when there. Add to this that he's only 199 pounds, based on his athletic profile, our best comparisons are Nahim Hines, Reggie Bush, and Austin Echler. Echler is the top bell cow on that list, but it took him five years until he ever had more than 135 45 carries in the season. And then the Lions shocked the world and drafted Gibbs with the 12 overall pick.

Everyone decried that as a reach, but look at how excited they were to draft him there. Clearly, they love this guy. They said they were comfortable taking him at number six overall, and that the Jets would have grabbed him at number 15 if they let him fall. Shortly after, they traded D'Andre Swift to the Eagles, opening up more guaranteed carries and targets for Gibbs. That top 12 draft capital is huge for a running back. Since 2011, there's been six running backs drafted inside the top 12, and they've averaged

296 touches and 1510 yards from scrimmage per game in their rookie seasons. For perspective, those numbers would have ranked 9th best and 8th best last season. So that draft capital is huge, and I really like the landing spot, even with David Montgomery there. As much as everyone hated DeAndre Swift last year, his role really wasn't all that terrible. Through 14 games, he played on just 42% of the team snaps, but he still ranked ranked 16th in fantasy points per game. And collectively, as a team, Detroit's running backs ranked second in XFP per game with 28.3. What that means is, basically, if he handles just two-thirds of the

team's backfield XFP, that's expected fantasy points based on volume, so just two-thirds of the usage in the backfield, he'd average 18.7 XFP per game. That would have ranked tied with Christian McCaffrey and behind only Austin Echler. So pre-draft, I kept comparing him to Austin Echler, and that's what I'm seeing now with this draft capital and landing spot. Basically, 2019, Austin Echler. In 2019, he split carries with Melvin Gordon, but dominated targets and managed to finish the season as the overall RB4 and PPR leagues. Perhaps Gibbs can be a balkout in a few years, but for right now, it doesn't even really matter. This is a great landing spot for a great player. Okay, after the top two, I'll go a little quicker with some of these names. Kendry Miller's my RB3. Maybe that's a hot take to some,

but my pre-draft model had him as the RB3 in the class, and I really like his landing spot. Miller doesn't bring much to the table as a receiver, but he profiles as a really good runner, possibly great, but probably not elite. Joe Mixen Light was my comparison for him. His draft capital was good as the fourth running back off the board, going in round three to the Saints, and I really like that landing spot. I think he's immediately the favorite to win over the Mark Ingram role in this offense. I think the days of Alvin Camaro receiving 70 plus percent of the team snaps are long gone. Miller might split that Ingram role with Jamal Williams to start, but I don't think

it'll be very long before he takes over that role and really starts dominating the team in terms of carries each week. Since entering the league, Jamal Williams ranks 12 worst in yards per carry among 54 running backs. The only names below him on that list who are still on an NFL roster are David Montgomery and Najee Harris. and Williams has reached just a dozen rushing attempts per game only once in six career seasons. Alvin Camaro will probably lead the team in fantasy points, but there's still quite a bit of

upside for Miller in both the short and long term. Camaro is going to be 28 years old at the start of this season. He's missed at least one game in each of the past five seasons, and over the past two, he averages just 3.88 yards per carry. That ranks fifth worst of 50 qualifying running backs. plus he's looking at a suspension of six or more games, if not prison time of up to five years. So definitely a great opportunity for Kendrae Miller. My RB4 in this class is Devon A-Chane.

Everything you see with A-Chane on tape matches up with his stats. He plays bigger than his size. He's unafraid of contact. He's freakishly fast. And he possesses legitimately rare big playability. Unfortunately, I did see similar rushing concerns to that of Jemir Gibbs. but in A-chain's case, much more exaggerated. And similar size concerns as well,

except, again, much more exaggerated. A-Chain showed up to the combine weighing only 188 pounds. Since 2000, there's only been three running backs to weigh less than 190 and finish a season ranking as an RB2 or better. Warwick Dunn, Darren Sprouls, and Tariq Cohen, and all three had a higher BMI than A-Chane.

This implies heavily capped usage at the next level, minimal belcow potential. So we don't like that. To make matters worse, A-Chane's production profile really wasn't all that great. Sure, he had an elite 40-yard dash time, the third best ever by a running back at the combine. But that just doesn't really matter as much as his size. But for what it's worth, a lot of film experts really loved him. Dane Bruegler told us in The Beast that multiple NFL scouts thought he could convert to wide receiver.

Unfortunately, it was just hard to agree with that analytically. He averaged only 5.5 yards per catch last year. That's really bad. But Danny Kelly of the ringer definitely had the best upside argument when it came to A-Chain. Basically saying this is a really rare player. There's really no good comparison for him at the running back position. The best comparison you can make is, what if this guy is the Tyreek Hill of RB's? And then after falling to a best possible landing spot in Miami, I'm taking that upside argument a lot more seriously.

What I said pre-draft was basically, if he goes to Miami, or Denver, his ADP will rightfully skyrocket. If he goes anywhere else, it probably falls. One stat I mentioned in my article was that 66% of A-Chane's carries came on outside runs. That was one of the highest rates in the class. And he averaged just 4.5 yards per carry on inside runs, one of the lowest rates in the class. But the good news for him is Miami runs outside zone at one of the highest rates in the league. And right now there's not a lot of competition for touches in Miami. There's just the 31-year-old and oft-injured Rahim Mustard, the unspectacular Jeff Wilson, and then the anti-spectacular Miles Gaskin and Salvin Ahmed.

And Mike McDaniel clearly loves him. According to Greer, the GM, they knew they were going to take him two to three weeks before the draft. I do think they're going to add a veteran and Mike McDaniel has said as much. I'm still skeptical he ever gets more than a dozen or so touches in any given week. But hey, if I'm wrong, he could be a massive league winner. There's just rare upside here. My RB5 is Zach Charbonnet. This was a player I was a lot lower on pre-draft.

I could see the arguments for him as RB3. I just didn't think he was deserving of a mid-round-one rookie pick, which is where he was going. So again, I wasn't very high on him to start with, but then in a worst possible landing spot in Seattle, I had to bump him down to RB5. When you first look at Charbonnet's numbers, he looks really good.

His basic stats, his box score numbers, they look really good. The problem is they look a lot less impressive if you control for the fact that he had the second best offensive line in football last year, that Chip Kelly running backs always put up big numbers but never really do much when they get to the NFL. By all of my favorite efficiency metrics, Charbonnet was fine, maybe good, but certainly not great. If you look at everything over his full career, he ranks only fringe top 10 by the metrics that matter. I also don't think he is a great receiver, although he did have a lot of receptions last year. He really just ran a lot of routes. He averaged only 0.87 yards per route run in his career, and he never really did all that

much with his targets. I think what happened here is Pete Carroll's an old school head coach who values the running back position more than anyone else in football. He took one look at his depth chart, which consisted of Kenneth Walker, DJ Dallas, and literally no one else at the time of the pick. And he was reminded of all the injuries suffered by Chris Carson, Rashad Penner, and CJ Procyce, and so he felt he needed to address what he saw as the most glaring need on his roster. Obviously, this definitely hurts Kenneth Walker, but I do still view Walker as the far more valuable dynasty commodity. His analytics profile was significantly better than that of Charbonnet. Charbonnet wasn't really great at anything, but at least Walker is a highest-end runner. The one edge

he has over Walker is a better pass catcher, but he's also nowhere near as good of a pass-catcher as Kenny McIntosh, who the team took in round seven. I'm not going to be drafting either one of them in redraft leagues. I'd imagine usage sort of like what we saw before Rashad Penny's injury last year, where Walker is Penny, Charbonnet is Walker, and Kenny McIntosh is Travis Homer. So basically like 14 carries for Walker, eight carries for Charbonnet, and a few targets for McIntosh. None of that really moves the needle.

Those are players you don't feel comfortable starting in fantasy leagues week to week. In order to see my full top 20 running back rankings and where I'd take these players in rookie drafts, you need to check out FantasyPoints.com. But before we go, I'll give you my favorite running back sleeper from this class. And that's Chris Rodriguez. Rodriguez's rushing efficiency metrics were legitimately elite in 2022. He averaged 0.37 mistackles force per attempt and 3.94 yards after contact per attempt. Among all instances of a Power 5 running back carrying the ball 175 or more times since

2014, those numbers rank 7th best and 26th best. Rodriguez averaged 8.5 missed tackles per game in 2022. That ranks third best since 2014, behind only two seasons from Bejohn Robinson and immediately head of two seasons from David Montgomery. Sure, his draft capital wasn't great, but I think Washington liked him a lot more than his draft capital implies. Beat reporter Nikki Jabvala reported that the commanders had at third round grades on Rodriguez. I also think the landing spot was sneaky great. He's going to have to compete for carries against Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson in what will immediately be some sort of committee, but I like his chances against those names.

Gibson spent a great deal of last offseason in Rivera's doghouse. Rivera was frequently critical of his play. He basically relegated him to only kick return duties before Robinson suffered an injury. Sources told us privately prior to the decision to draft Robinson that the team had seriously soured on Gibson. And at the moment, Gibson is still working his way back from foot surgery. Brian Robinson was drafted in round three last year, but apparently Washington liked Rodriguez just as much.

And besides, he wasn't handpicked by the new offensive coordinator Eric B. Enamey, like Rodriguez was. And Robinson's play wasn't all that inspiring last year. Granted, there was the injury he had to deal with, but among 50 qualifying running backs, Robinson ranks seventh worst in rushing yards over expectation per carry. Chris Rodriguez has his upside cap because he's not going to bring anything as a pass catcher, but it really wouldn't shock me if he led Washington and carries this year. To see my full profiles on this running back class on my full top 36 rankings, check out the links in the description or head over to FantasyPoint.com.

Thanks for checking it out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.