Fantasy Football Daily - Scott Barrett's Post 2023 NFL Draft Press Conference Breakdown

Episode Date: May 15, 2023

As he does every year, Fantasy Points' Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) plunges into the depths of NFL teams' post-draft press conferences, looking for a fantasy-focused "vibe check" on how teams feel about their new rookie picks. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. I watched 80 hours of post-draft press conferences so you don't have to. Here are my top six fantasy takeaways. I'll start us off with one that absolutely no one else is talking about. Chris Rodriguez is your top rookie sleeper, both in underdog bestball drafts and in rookie drafts. His analytics profile really wasn't all that bad at all.

I wasn't in love with him, but I definitely seemed to like him a lot more than anyone else. Well, anyone else besides the Washington commanders, who reportedly, per beat writer Nikki Javala, had a round three grade on it. They mentioned that in their press conference. Ron Rivera said, we had a higher grade on him. as well. So we thought we got a lot of value here. The grades we had on him, he was sticking out like a sore thumb. He said maybe some people only view him as a two downback, but we didn't. We got really excited about Martin Mayhew's vision with him. And based on a number of people we

talked to, we think he can be a lot more than that. Another quote, we got another big physical guy. That was one of the things that Eric Bienemy wants to do. This was a guy Eric was very high on, a guy that Eric thinks will most certainly have a role for us on the offensive side, talking to Eric and how he wants to use him. In Eric's mind, this is a guy that will fit in with what he wants. So it seems they have a clear role in mind for him this year. It seems he was handpicked by their new offensive coordinator, Eric B. Enamey. What this means to me is that Rodriguez will immediately compete for carries against Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson

in what will inevitably be some sort of committee. but I like his chances against these names. Antonio Gibson spent a great deal of time last offseason, living exclusively in Ron Rivera's doghouse. Rivera was frequently, publicly, critical of his play and basically relegated him to only kick return duties before Robinson suffered an unfortunate injury. Sources told us privately prior to the decision to draft Robinson

that the team had seriously soured on Gibson. And at the moment, he's still working his way back from foot surgery. Brian Robinson does have round three draft capital on his side, but that doesn't really give him a major edge on Rodriguez, especially if Nikki Jabal's report is true. And besides, he wasn't handpicked by the new offensive coordinator like Rodriguez was. And sure, Robinson was dealing with injury last year, but his play wasn't all that inspiring. Among 50 qualifying running backs, Robinson ranked seventh worst in rushing yards over expectation

per carry. Ultimately, Chris Rodriguez. Gez checks in as my RB9 and rookie drafts in between Tank Bigsby and Chase Brown. And for underdog bestball drafts, I really like him in the last rounds as a sleeper. My number two takeaway is that Jackson Smith and Jigba's landing spot is really an ideal in the short term. Sure, he has to compete for targets alongside studs like D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett. And we know P. Carroll likes to lean, run heavy. The biggest concern I have is that Carol loves

12 personnel. He's always run 12 personnel, two tight-ons on the field, two wide receivers on the field at one of the highest rates in the league. And that means that JSN as the slot wide receiver is probably riding the bench when only two wide receivers are on the field. The one glimmer of hope that I had was that the offensive coordinator Shane Waldron ran 11 personnel at the highest rate in the league when he was with the Rams. A beat reporter asked Pete Carroll exactly about this and if the decision to take a third wide receiver this high means we might see a change in personnel. And basically, he said no. We really like our tight ends. This was more about maximizing our three wide receiver plays when we do have three wide receivers on the field than any sort

of change in personnel. And this really destroys JSN's floor, especially in year one. Seattle had three or more wide receivers on the field on just 64.5% of their dropbacks last year. That ranked sixth fewest among all teams. And basically, this implies if things don't change at all, he's at a 65% route share at best. That would put him at about 25 routes per game, which would have ranked only 75th among wide receivers last year. From a redraft perspective, I'm probably fading him. It sucks because I think if he landed in Green Bay, I would have promised you 100 catches this

year. From a dynasty perspective, I still love the talent. I think buying JSN is exactly like buying Keenan Allen in 2013. Mind you, Alan is finished as a wide receiver one in six straight seasons. So he's definitely still a player I'm targeting. But then again, he's probably going to be cheaper in a few months. Immediately following the draft, I basically had JSN and Jemir Gibbs tied right behind Bejohn Robinson with maybe Anthony Richardson also in that tier. But after watching these press conferences, I had a little bit of.

bump Gibbs above JSN because I really do think Gibbs has way more upside in the short term and I do think in about three months, Gibbs is going to be maybe three rounds more expensive in Dynasty startups. That brings us to our number three takeaway. The Lions are insanely high on Jemir Gibbs. I don't ever remember a team getting this excited about a round one pick in my life. He acted like he just traded D'Andre Swift for Patrick Mahomes. I know the NFL mocked draft Cognacente destroyed the lions for taking a running back this early, but they feel really good about it. The GM said they were comfortable taking him at six overall ahead of Bijan Robinson, had they not traded down. The GM also slipped up and said they got a number of congratulation

texts from a number of different teams. One of those texts, presumably from the Jets, told them that he wouldn't have made it past pick 15. And I think that's a little interesting because it means then that the two teams with the most interest in Jemir Gibbs were also the two teams with the most interest in wideback Debo Samuel. Perhaps this hints at a sort of running back plus or wide receiver masquerading as a running back sort of role with massive fantasy upside. And so they took him with the 12th overall pick. That is rare draft capital for a running back, especially in today's day and age. Since 2011, there's been six running backs drafted inside of the top. 12. And those running backs have averaged 296 touches and over 1,500 yards from scrimmage per

game in their rookie seasons. For perspective, those numbers would have ranked ninth best and eighth best last year. Jamir Gibbs is currently the RB12 in underdog drafts. And the Lions running back coach Scotty Montgomery said he thought that Gibbs was the best base player in this draft. And I'm not sure exactly what that means, but I mean, analytically, you can sort of see it. average more career yards per route run than Jalen Hyatt, Zay Flowers, or any tight end from this class. Montgomery also said he views Gibbs as an every down running back. He doesn't see David Montgomery or Jemir Gibbs serving different roles, just that they can be used interchangeably on all three downs in any situation to keep defense is honest. And he went out of his way to mention that he also

thinks that's true near the goal line. And I think that's important, especially the near end zone usage, because that was a slight concern I had pre-draft. I like both his upside in the short term and long term. I think drafting him is sort of like drafting Austin Echler a few years ago. I think in Superflex rookie drafts, he's your 102 or 103. Bejohn Robinson goes one. Jamir Gibbs goes either 102 or 103 after Anthony Richardson. And I think if you're in a dynasty, startup, you can take Gibbs as high as the third running back off the board behind only Bejohn Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. My number four takeaway is that the Buffalo Bills view Dalton Kincaid as a slot wide receiver.

He was far and away their top target in the draft. He moved up to get him. And if he wasn't there, they would have traded back out of round one. They were really worried that the chargers would have taken him. Brandon Bean was asked about the wide receivers in this class. He didn't seem very high on them, probably highest on JSN. And I think it's possible that they thought Kincaid was either the best or the second best pure receiver in this class.

And they do view him as more of a receiver, a slot wide receiver like Cole Beasley than as a true tight end. Here are some quotes from Brandon Bean. He's a receiving tight end. When he and Dawson Knox are in the game, that's technically 12 personnel, but I'm paraphrasing a little bit here. That's basically 11 personnel because he's not your standard Y tight end. We're going to get nickel coverage when he's out in the field.

He's going to be in the slot and flexed out a lot. Basically, we view him as more of a receiver than a tight end. We're not going to have him block a lot. He mentioned Cole Beasley and said this guy, Don Concade, is like Beasley, but in a different body type that does all of the things that Cole Beasley does. He has elite hands. He's a really good route runner. tremendous separation ability at the top of his route.

And this is exactly what you want to hear. From a fantasy perspective, you want tight ends who are basically wide receivers masquerading as tight ends. They're not blocking. And the majority of the routes they're running, they're not chip blocks. They're coming from the slot. You're thinking of guys like Kelsey and Darren Waller. And Kincaid is exactly of that archetype.

So after watching this press conference, I did bump Don't Kincaid up. a few spots in my rookie rankings. He's now my 109 and definitely my tight end one in this class. From a redraft perspective, we don't really, we should never really expect too much from a rookie tight end. But a few years down the road, could this be Josh Allen's Travis Kelsey, Josh Allen's Rob Grunkowski, could he be the number two receiver on the team? I could see it.

It's possible. And that's exactly why you should be chasing. his rare upside in rookie drafts, especially tight-end premium rookie drafts. My number five takeaway is that the Colts were extremely high on quarterback Anthony Richardson. The owner Jim Ursa said that they still would have taken him even if he had the first overall pick in the draft. Unlike many other teams, they didn't pretend like he's going to have to compete against Gardner Minshu to earn the starting role.

They continually stressed that young quarterbacks need as many reps as possible. How important and valuable that is. So in spite of him being pretty raw or inexperienced, he only had 13 career starts in college. I do expect him to start for most, if not all of his rookie season. I also love this landing spot. The new head coach Shane Stike and coach Jalen Hertz over the past two seasons, that's another hyper-mobile quarterback. Over this span, Hertz ranked behind only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points per game. And he was really close to Mahomes. If you just give him one more passing touchdown, he would have beat out Mahomes as the QB2 over this span. And that's not all. Stuyken also coached Justin Herbert in his

rookie year. That season, Herbert threw 31 touchdown passes and averaged 289 passing yards per game. Both marks rank best all time by a rookie quarterback. And Herbert that year also averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game. That was 5.8 more than what he averaged last year. So Richardson to me in a Superflex draft should be the 102. If you really need a quarterback, if you really need a running back, maybe the 103. You can take Gibbs ahead of him, but feel really good about him there. And from a redraft or best ball perspective, right now he's the QB11 in our projections. And on a fantasy point per game basis, he'd be our QB9.

So he's a great pick in either format. My number six takeaway is that the NFL is a lot higher on Will Levis than his draft. Graph capital implies. Initially, I saw him land in round two and it's, okay, that doesn't really guarantee anything. You know, they could still re-sign Ryan Tannahill, but after watching these press conferences, I came out way more bullish on Will Levis. Sure, he did fall to round two, but it seems like he very easily could have went round one. And maybe nothing more than a little bit of bad luck cost him upwards of $25 million. The Colts owner, Jim Ursay, said he would have taken him if Richardson wasn't there at their pick.

And they might have still taken him at round two if he fell to their next pick. Jim Erseh tweeted something out to that effect. The Titans GM ran Carthon said they would have taken him at pick 11 if Skoromsky wasn't there and that they did try multiple times to trade back up into round one to take him. According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, Baltimore probably would have taken him at pick 22 had he not just agreed to a deal with Lamar Jackson earlier in the day. And then the Panthers GM, Scott Fitterer, was asked by a reporter. So you thought highly of all three quarterbacks?

And he went out of his way to correct the reporter and say, no, no, no, no, we thought highly of all four quarterbacks. So all of this was very weird to me. Why would the Panthers go out of their way to praise Will Levis? And then with the other three teams, it does seem, hey, if Skoroski went to the Bears at Pick 10, Will Levis would have had top 12 draft capital. If Lamar Jackson was slow to sign his deal, he would have went round one to the Ravens. Or if any team accepted a trade offer from the Titans, he would have went round one. Or if Richardson went a pick earlier, he would have been a top five pick.

So after all this, I am a lot more bullish on Willevis. And I bumped him up in my rankings because of that. Sure, round two draft capital isn't great, but he very easily could have been round one. and looking at the Titan's salary cap situation, I do think it makes the most sense for them to move on from Ryan Tannhill next year. So there you have it. My top six fantasy takeaways, but before we depart,

I've got a few other quick hits for you. When Chargers GM Tom Telesco was asked about Quentin Johnston and if he could step into a starting role early, he answered, I don't know, we'll see, we'll see. He has to earn it. But also there's only so many balls to go. go around. We'll kind of have to see how it plays out. We're really high on Josh Palmer. And you don't really love to hear that. You know, typically a GM when they've just taken a

player, 45 minutes earlier, is a little bit more excited, a little bit more amped up to hype him up. So that is a little discouraging and it plays back into what we talked about with JSN. The Chargers were middle of the pack and three wide receiver personnel last year, only about 78% of their passes. Another interesting point. this is that Brandon Staley said in praising him, we really like his yards after the catchability and what that does to unlock Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett. And that was just interesting to me that he would mention Gerald Everett. When you think of Chargers' top playmakers, you don't really think of Gerald Everett. So maybe he's a decent late round best ball dart throw.

Another point, the Raiders said that Michael Mayer was a top 15 overall player on their board and that he talked about trading up for him in round one. So maybe he's another guy that the team likes more than draft capital implies. We know that Mike McDaniel loves running back Devon A-chain. Chris Greer basically said that they decided they were taking him two to three weeks before the draft took place just because of how high Mike McDaniel was on Devon A-chain. But then again, also Mike McDaniel did say they are looking to add a veteran presence to that running back room before the start of the season.

Jet's head coach Robert Sala said that Breece Hall looks really good in rehab. That's encouraging. You do like to hear that. We're hearing rumors that Dalvin Cook isn't going to be long for a Vikings uniform. We're hearing purse sources word on the street. We're hearing that they're just waiting for him to get healthy enough to pass his physical. And then he's going to be traded. So I do think it's a little noteworthy that the Vikings said he had a starter grade on DeWis.

McBride. They were very high on this player and they did go out of the way to say they are bullish on his past catching potential. Although he wasn't used much in that role in college, they do see a lot of potential and upside there. It wasn't just lip service in this interest. Oftentimes it is. They just mentioned it repeatedly enough to me that I do kind of buy into, at least they think he has that sort of upside. Another point is I just got like really bad vibes on Rochon Johnson. I think that Chicago Bears landing spot is really interesting. Brett Whitefield's pre-draft comp for Rochon Johnson was David Montgomery. So to me, it's, oh, he just slides right into that David Montgomery role or maybe it's a 50-50 committee there. But I did get really bad vibes from

this press conference. The area scout said that the best thing he does arguably is special teams. So that's what made this feel like a slam dunk pick for us. They talked about, his A plus character nonstop. He talked about his special teams and past blocking ability. So a lot of stuff that doesn't contribute to fantasy points, you kind of wanted them to say, well, he's a lead at breaking tackles. You know, he's a grinder. He's, you know, he can do this and he has past catching potential.

And we just didn't really hear that at all. That's just, you know, I'm not moving him up or down to my rankings, but it's just a little unideal. They also told a story about why they drafted him was that. that when they were interviewing him in a meeting room, before they left, Roshan went out of his way to clean up a bunch of empty water bottles and throw them in the trash. Yeah, again, you just, you want that's a cool story, but you know, you want to hear them saying, this guy's awesome, you know, he's our new David Montgomery, and we just didn't hear that.

But these are more, less actionable takeaways, these final quick hits. But my top six takeaways at the start of this video, those are. art noteworthy to me and did factory. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.