Fantasy Football Daily - Scott Barrett's Week 1 Fantasy Recap

Episode Date: September 14, 2023

Scott Barrett takes an incredible deep dive into the statistics to review all the fantasy football usage from 2023 NFL Week 1, with everything (seriously, everything) you need to know for the rest of the season. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS WITH CODE GURRIFIC25 AT CHECKOUT FOR 25% OFF: https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ontario, the wait is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget online casino is live. Bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots that can turn any mundane moment into a golden, opportunity at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Take a spin on the slots, challenge yourself at the

tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you can go for the gold at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Gambling problem call connects Ontario 1866531-260. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See Golden Nuggett Casino.com for details. Please play responsibly. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What is up?

It's Scott Barrett. FantasyPoints.com. Here to give you a quick little week one recap. Here is everything, no seriously everything you need to know from week one, a very important week. Yes, it's way too early to write off some of these players as bus or league winners, but this is crucial information so long as you know what to look for, which I do, which is primarily usage over raw fantasy production results. So long as you know what to look for. I feel really good about my rankings, a lot of hits in there. I'm sure there were a few misses.

But myself, any fantasy analyst, your rankings are going to look a lot better if you had the benefit of everything we know from week one. So here I am to tell you everything you need to know from week one, the most important facts. They're going to help you win your championship. This is a great time to try and trade for some of these players. I'm high on or maybe trade away some of these players I'm low on before all of your opponents, your league mates, become aware of this new reality of the NFL. Basically what I'm doing here today is I'm going to be recapping my article. It's over on fantasy points.com.

It's free for just this week, next week, every week after. It's going to be paywall, but it's free week this week. Scott Barrett's week one fantasy recap. typically the week one, week two usage report. And so you could check that out for some more thorough analysis, but today mostly just going to be giving you the quick hits. And so at like 33 bullet points, really a lot more than that,

but that's how I structured it, 33. And I started with the quarterback position, number one takeaway. It's looking like to attack Ovaloa was one of, one of the best values in 2020. 2023 drafts. This is something I was very into the possibility of happening. It was awesome last year.

Over the last two seasons, he averages 21.5 fantasy points per game in healthy games. He cleared a 75% snapshot. It was the QB13 by ADP. Joe Burrow averages 21.5 fantasy points per game, same as Tua, one healthy over the same stretch. he was your QB5.

I still think, of course, Burrow outscores him, but this is just to give you a glimpse at the sort of value Tua offers. Obviously, he was awesome in week one. He threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. He did that without one of the best left tackles in football, Taran Armstead. Since the start of last season, there's only been four instances of a quarterback eclipsing 460 passing yards

in a single game. That's Tua twice. and Joe Burrow twice. Not only were the results terrific, but he looked amazing on film as well. This is Brett Whitefield, who runs Fantasy Points Data, watched basically every snap of every player this past week,

12 different times. He said, based on film study, far and away, Tua, impressed him more than any other individual player. Second point, Anthony Richardson, he's looking exactly like the top 12,

fantasy quarterback, I hoped he would be. If you've consumed any of my analysis this offseason, you know I was very bullish on Richardson and week one was highly encouraging 40 rushing yards and a score on 10 carries on the ground, six design runs, second most among quarterbacks. He had three of the teams four carries inside the 10 yard line prior to his late game injury. That's a crucial point. That was something I was hoping was going to be sticky. Stuyken obviously used Jalen Hertz as the primary co-lineback for the Eagles last season.

He's now coaching Anthony Richardson. Only four scrambles. So it makes me kind of think that 40 rushing yards on 10 carries is close to his floor. Through the air, he was pretty good. 223 passing yards, 30 yards shy of Jared Gough, who ranks sixth on the week. He finishes the fantasy QB4, 21. point nine fantasy points very easily could have scored 28 because he got injured late in the game. He's fine.

Don't worry about it. But it was on the two yard line second and second and two. Very easily could have ran one in for an extra 6.2 fantasy points or actually it was the one yard line. And believe it or not, Richardson now has become the first rookie quarterback to finish top five at the position in week one since Robert Griffin the third. he's looking like a top 12 fantasy quarterback. I don't know that we're going to see consistent results like this. I'm expecting a little bit more volatility, but by season's end,

I'm confident he finishes as a top 12 fantasy quarterback. Point number three, it's a little too early to give up on Deshaun Watson. I talked last year about how rusty he was, the really difficult schedule he faced, the ridiculously bad weather luck he had. Every game was, I don't know, eight degrees with 20 mile an hour winds.

That happened again this week, heavy rain. Before all that, you know, he was finishing top six in fantasy points per game in four or four career seasons. Obviously, he was really bad in week one, but like I said, there was bad weather. And he was 154 passing, or it's not good, but significantly better than Joe Burroughs 82.

And so now over the last two seasons, he averages 179.4 passing yards per game, which is bad, but still significantly more than opposing quarterbacks, 155.7. I think that's a testament to the weather luck. And then in spite of how bad he looked through the air, he did rush for 45 yards,

the second most of any quarterback in the week, his second best output since October of 2019. So that is encouraging, you know, very well could be a bus, but I want to give it another couple of weeks at least. Number four, Brock Purdy. He's not going to be a league winner, but I do think he was seriously underrated in basketball drafts all offseason.

Last year, he was eighth in fantasy points per start, fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Week one, this was a non-competitive blowout victory, 30 to 7-0 against a tough Steelers defense. And he scored 14.5 fantasy points in the first half on pace for 29, 0.63 fantasy points for dropback. Could have had a monster game if San Francisco kept their foot in the gas in the second half. They did not.

But still, very good game from Brock Purdy. Number five, week one was extremely encouraging from Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Matthew Stafford. Jordan Love came into this game. Without his wide receiver one, Christian Watson was hurt. Wide receiver two, Romeo Dobbs was on a snap count because of injury, 48% snap share. And he threw for three touchdown passes.

That's something Aaron Rogers accomplished only once all of last season. He finished the week as the QB3, 23 fantasy points, led the position in fantasy points per dropback and pass. Racerating, really encouraging results from Jordan Love. Now, I don't think he's going to be a league winner. And Carson Wentz was like the QB1 week one last season. So I don't think he's going to be a league winner, but, you know, he could be a thing. He could be high-end QB2, I'd say, probably.

And who knows, maybe even better than that. But that's my take right now. Mack Jones, another player is bullish on his final season of college earned the best PFF grade in PFF college history as a rookie, the third best ever grade awarded to a rookie since 2013. Last year, really bad results. But I mean, Matt Patricia was calling plays. And now he has Bill O'Brien who made Deshaun Watson into a fantasy superstar.

And so in week one, Mac Jones scored 25.1 fantasy points. That was second most of any quarterback in the week. he did that against an easy top three defense in the Eagles. He did it without his wide receiver one, Devante Parker, Juju Smith Schuster on a 53% snapshot due to injury. And so he looked awesome. And the big takeaway here isn't, you know,

pick up Mack Jones. He's not going to be probably a quarterback. You ever feel comfortable starting. I don't think it's what he does to everyone else within this offense. Ramadri Stevenson saw amazing usage last year, really good usage in week one. What was really holding him back was just how inept this offense was. It was slow pace. They couldn't pick up a first down.

They couldn't get into the red zone. So if this offense goes from bottom five to just average, above average, that can pay off in a really big way for someone like Ramandre Stevenson. And then Matthew Stafford, he looked great. He didn't have Cooper Cup. He was up against a really tough defense. and he looked great. PFF's second highest graded quarterback in the week,

third most passing yards. This was the fourth most total points, second most yards, third worst yards per attempt average. The Seahawks have given up to an opposing quarterback over the past two seasons. And again, the bigger takeaway here isn't,

you're probably not going to be too excited to start Matthew Stafford. If you ever do, there's probably 11 other teams that have a better quarterback. than you in your league. The big takeaway to me, well, hey, who knows when Cooper Cup comes back? But the big takeaway to me is that this offense right now, at least from a one-game sample

size, looked a lot more like it did when they won the Super Bowl than how it looked last year. Maybe even if Cooper Cup returns, Puka Nukuwa can put up Robert Woods-like fantasy production. So again, really encouraged by the results we saw there. Number seven, you are not panicking on Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, or Josh Allen. It's just that the Browns, Cowboys, Jets own them. Joe Burrow, his numbers against the Browns are really bad. And he was also understandably rusty after missing all of preseason and much of training camp. T. Higgins, yeah, brighter,

days lie ahead for him. He put up a goose egg, but he did see eight targets, and just about none of those were catchable. So the fault really lies on Joe Burrow there. Daniel Jones, yeah, Daniel Jones is owned by the NFC East. He cannot put up any points against the NFC East since week seven last year, just 13.5 fantasy points per game against all other opponents, 23.5. And what is that? It's the Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in football, the NFC East, two or three teams with, you know, ranking top five and pass rush maybe. And boy, his offensive line was horrific up against one of the best pass rushes in football. Andrew Thomas, their left tackle suffered an injury in that game.

Evan Neal is looking like a colossal bust. You should be a little worried about that offensive line. I'd expect a bounce back performance this week against Arizona, probably 20 plus fantasy points along as Andrew Thomas comes back. But week three against Nick Bosa and the 49ers, that is going to be rough. Josh Allen, of course, what do you say after the game? Same shit, same plays, different day. The Jets, Robert Sala kind of owns him, if we're being honest.

It was a really rough game, but this is a player you drafted top three of the position, probably going to finish top three at the end of the year. Do not worry about him. Number eight, Arthur Smith, Desmond Ritter, means you probably overdrafted Drake, London, and Kyle Pitts. It was so bad. It was so bad last year, one of the slowest teams in the league. He ran the ball like a team from 1947. And he had the two worst quarterbacks in football by off-target throw rate.

and 2023, their week one, was somehow even more pathetic than that. Atlanta won 2410, which is great, but we're talking fantasy here. And Rinder had 58 air yards passing. There was only one air yard better than the Pittsburgh Steelers tight end three, Connor Hayward. I ring 51st among all receivers. Ritter completed just six passes to non-running backs, one of which was to himself.

And that was also more than what Drake London had. Yeah, this is cataclysmic. Is that how you say that word? This is apocalypticly bad. I'm hitting the panic button on Drake London and Kyle Pitts. It's going to be rough, even if things improve, which I mean, it's hard to get worse than this. They're going to be tough starts week to week, a lot of volatility. Number nine.

Oh, man, it's going to get bad for the New York Jets. Oh, my heart goes out to everyone who drafted Aaron Rogers, Garrett Wilson. Like, I really thought they were going to be league winners this year, and it doesn't get much worse than what we saw on Monday night. This is probably like the funniest section in this article. If you want to read how bad Zach Wilson was last year, it's like almost impossible to even comprehend just how bad he was and I'm not expecting any improvements I can't imagine like the Jets signing anyone who can be you know better than the 32nd best quarterback in football but guess what whoever that is would be significantly better than Zach Wilson if I were redrafting today I'd probably take Garrett Wilson round four or five I had him 12th in my pre-week-1 rankings.

It is really bad. Breeze Hall should be okay. I think Robert Sal is going to do everything he can to make sure Zach Wilson's throwing as little as possible. So even if it is a committee, I think we're going to see a lot of really productive days from Breece Hall. Now let's move on to the running back position. Number 10, Chris McCaffrey as your RB1 was definitely the right call.

I talked to this offseason how in games Elijah Mitchell played, Christian McCaffrey's usage really declined. Without Elijah Mitchell, he was far and away the most valuable fantasy asset. With Mitchell, he's more like the RB6. But I mean, week one, he was the number one Belcal in fantasy. Elijah Mitchell barely played five touches, 15% snapshot, CMC, 22 carries, four targets, led the position and Snapshare, 100% of the snaps inside the Red Zone. And what's most interesting about this is this all came in a non-competitive 30-7 blowout victory. You think given that game script, that's like perfect for Elijah Mitchell.

And it was the CMC show. And so, yeah, if you drafted Christian McCaffrey, congratulations. You drafted what I think is the most valuable running back in fantasy this year so long as he stays healthy. number 11 uh austin eckler i talked about how awesome he was in week one finished second and fantasy points scored first and weighted opportunity uh i talked about how it was a little worrisome joshua kelly mixed in some people on twitter were saying oh this is a now a thunder and lightning situation uh Joshua kelly is kelly is kellan moore's new zeke elliot and uh the t lDR i have on that is like well austin eckler suffered an ankle injury and then so that that's

that certainly could have played a role that probably led to Joshua Kelly's fourth quarter goal line touchdown. And then even if you just like ignore that, like he wasn't a belcow last year. He was the RB won by fantasy points per game, but it's not like, you know, he was dominating carries because he wasn't. The bigger takeaway here is just like, yeah, keep a close eye on this injury. I've seen some people speculate based on the tape that it looked like a high ankle. I don't know about that.

I don't know if anyone can say that definitively. But that would be worst case scenario for sure. In the meantime, I think Joshua Kelly is like a great player to have on your team. I think he's a high-end RB2. Could even be like a mid-range RB1, honestly, because I think he would be the bell cow for this offense, which is a great offense to be the RB1 on. Is he going to be a thing with a healthy Austin?

I don't know. I'd say probably not. But right now, yeah, that's a great player to have on your team. Number 12. For the first time since 2018, Derek Henry was fully healthy. It did not lead the Titans backfield in snaps. That's not good. You had a 67% snapshot last year. It was 48% in week one. That's not good. Can't really blame this all on game script. Tennessee only trailed on 37% of their offensive plays. What I will say is I just don't think it matters all that much. Derek Henry, like, always ranked dead last in the league and targets per route run or targets per snap.

And so really, I just think they took a lot of empty snaps, like empty calories off of his plate. So I don't know that we're going to see a significant decline in touches. Maybe Tajay Spears mixes in more than we've ever seen from a Titans RB2, or at least in recent memory. but yeah i don't think this seriously hurts him again these were snaps he would would have been on the field but never touching the ball anyway i think if i were drafting today i'd have him i don't know rb seven rb eight so not too bad number 13 pour one out for jk daven's owners because you know

two minutes prior to this injury i was beating myself up for being too low on him he had eight of the team's nine carries, two of the teams two targets out of the backfield. It looked like he could be a league winner, but lo and behold, the most injury-prone player in football suffered a season-ending injury, potentially career-ending injury. Right now, this is looking like a 50-50 committee backfield, Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, I think Melvin Gordon's going to mix in now. If I had to pick a favorite, I'd go with Gus Edwards. Believe it or not, he ranks behind only Nick Chubb in yards per carry.

since he entered the league. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw them sign. Letter for Nett, Kareem Hunt, I don't know that there is going to be a fantasy starter from any running back wearing a Ravens uniform. But these are guys to, you know, have on your roster, at least now, just on the off chance that one of these guys breaks out and gets the Belcow workload.

It looked like J.K. Dobbins was going to have. Number 14. I remain very bullish on Nick Chubb's Exodia potential. If you don't know what the word Exodia means, it's a very nerdy Yu-Gi-Gi-O reference where basically like you have Exodia, you just automatically win. And that's like the sort of potential I think Nick Chubb offers. If you look at the box score, it looks like a 50-50 committee. But if you exclude the fourth quarter when Joe Burrow was pulled from this 24-3 drubbing, and it was clear Chubb looked like a highest-end bau. It looked like a player who has the potential

to finish as the overall RB1 in fantasy. Remember, Nick Chubb was an annual top-five fantasy running back despite splitting 50% of the work with Kareem Hunt. But what happened in week one? Throw out week four, the fourth quarter, and he was on pace for 21.3 carries, 5.3 targets, 150 yards from scrimmage, 80% carry share, 100% backfield target share, easily the best usage of his career. And this is one of the best players in all football. So, yeah, player is really high on. I'm even higher today. I mean, who knows,

Jerome Ford missed a good chunk of training camp. But right now, very bullish. Number 15. James Connor and Rashad White were the Belkow running backs we were hoping the would be. Two players I was very high on. James Connor, 14 of 19 carries out of the backfield five of five targets. You love to see that five targets. It's great.

85% snapshare second most among all running backs. Amazing. That's great, great volume. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry. his only threat for touches, the only other running back to touch the ball, Keante Ingram, he averaged a negative 0.8 yards per carry. So not too worried about that guy. The big problem, of course, was he wasn't that productive, and it was bad. But it's also not surprising. Without Cliff Kingsbury, this offense is running at a much slower pace. So that's fewer plays per game

that you take off 10 plays per game and that's, I don't know, five fewer touches. That could be really bad. It was just week one, but in Arizona was still, you know, above average in pace. They just weren't second fastest like they were last year. And then, of course, the offense was really bad. Josh Dobbs, a player they just added a few weeks ago. Zero touchdowns, 3.6 yards per play. So the big hope here is just, you know, James Connor can just live off that volume enough to be a mid-range RB2.

And then when Kyler Murray returns, he could be even just a little bit close to who he was at the tail end of last year from week 10 on. You average 19.8 fantasy points per game that ranked behind only Christian McCaffrey, just a little bit like that guy. And that would be great. Rashad White terrific usage 79% snap share 100% in the red zone

17 carries two targets that's the good news the bad news is he was awful Sean Tucker wasn't that much better listen this offense is bad

the offensive line is bad I don't see that improving I think Jared Smala on Twitter sum this up nicely if Rashad White isn't the worst running back on the planet, he's going to deliver for fantasy. The only concern is that White continues to be really bad, which would pave way for Sean Tucker

or Chase Edmonds to force a committee. That would be really bad. But for right now, he's a bell cow, and I'm bullish, and I'm expecting much better results in week two. He only saw two targets. That's worrisome. But, I was predicting like 4.5 targets per game, but I'm willing to just chalk that up as an anomaly. Sean Tucker, I think, is like a great player to add if you're in a deep league, deep roster league, your team's are being needy, just because like he doesn't have, it doesn't only have big upside in the case of an injury, but there is a chance he could win this job on talent alone, but still, still bullish on Rashad White, you know, you get this sort of snap share.

you're probably going to deliver. And if you're used in the passing game, which you should be because this guy was so terrific in that role in college, you could rise above the negative game script and you could rise above the bad offensive line. You just need to be peppered with targets, which are worth 2.5 times as much as a carry in PPR league. So hopefully that number jumps. Hopefully he rebounds and efficiency, staves off Sean Tucker.

that's my take number 16 really encouraging signs from rookies jemere gives and be john robinson even if the usage was a little unideal jimier gives led all running backs and missed tackles for us per touch only 27% snap share but dan campbell promised us that's that's going to climb you know you want to take it easy on the rookie in his debut bejean robinson obviously uh it's a little disappointing that Algier had more opportunities than he did, including all three of the team's carries inside the five-yard line. But it's certainly possible, and I think likely Robinson's workload is going to climb. Bigger takeaway for me is that he looked awesome.

His usage was still really good. You know, if you promised me a 65% snapshot and a 35% target share, you know, I'd be head over heels. as much as we dislike Atlanta's offense for Kyle Pitts and Drake London, this is a team that runs the offense through the running backs. We saw that with Derek Henry when he was coached by Arthur Smith. Last season, Atlanta led the league in rushing yards from running backs with much lesser talent. I am worried a little bit that Cordarelle Patterson might steal some work in the passing game,

but still, if you drafted Bejohn Robinson, this isn't anything I would be too worried about. Number 17, Cam Acres was wildly overrated, in part, but only in part because Sean McVey is a liar. McVey talked up Cam Acres every chance you can get, said this is going to be my guy, and then what happened, Kyron Williams dominated him in terms of usage.

out snapped acres 11 to 3 inside the red zone. By games end, Karen Williams had 52 snaps to Acres 26. And it looked a whole lot worse before the blowout game script at the end of the game. And not only that, but Acres was so bad. 22 carries, 29 yards. It's one of the worst games in like 20 years. So yeah, that's really bad.

I right now I think acres was legitimately one of the worst picks he could have made I think Williams will probably outscore acres by season's end so shout out to anyone who drafted karen williams good job the number 18 just some other running backs trending up I'm going to try and do this quick hit style although it wasn't very quick hitish in my article but if you want that the more detailed information uh you can read that article kind of gainwell saw a better usage than Miles Sanders did last year. Only question is how long does that last? He's already hurt.

DeAndre Swift is more talented than him. Rashad Penny is more talented than him. Tony Pollard, amazing, amazing usage. Tom Pelliserro told us before the game that they were going to kind of take it easy on him in week one with only 18 to 20 touches. What that means to me is like sky is the limit

for one of the big, best most efficient running backs in all of football. If you drafted him, he's looking like a league winner right now. That defense is so good. Mike McCarthy wants to run the offense through the running back. And he's just awesome. He's the man. Six carries inside the 10-yard line.

That was already half of what it was last year when Zeeke got that role. Kenneth Walker, really good usage. He drafted a running back in the second round. It makes sense. You'd think there'd be more. of a committee. But that wasn't the case. Really good passing down volume from Walker as well. Ramandre Stevenson. This one was a little complicated, I guess. He did enter this game with the flu or stomach bug, something like that. His usage wasn't quite as good as it was last year when

Damien Harris was out. But to me, it was still really good. I mean, he led all running backs and snaps on the week. Eighth in Snapshire. Really good. to me. Yeah, I think he's going to be a fantasy RB1. I think he's going to beat his RB 1580P. Really like this from him. Miles Sanders. It was encouraging usage.

This one was also a little complicated. 56% carry share, 58% snap share. So like not a bell cow by usage, but like Carolina did, you know, run the ball through the running back to such a high degree that like the raw volume was really good. I bet he finishes as a mid-range RV2 by season's end, so better than where he was at last year.

James Cook usage really good, 60% Snapshare. It's not great, but 12 of 15 carries, 80%, way above what I expected. Only 6 of 10 among the running backs on the team, but still six targets, 12 of 15 carries. It's really good. What I think explains the snapshot is that Latavius Murray, played in the two-minute drill, which I did not expect. I'm just guessing that this means, you know, you don't trust James Cook in past production,

but guess what? You don't score fantasy points for a successful block. So I don't think that really matters all that much. Yeah, I left really, really encouraged, and this is a player I was bullish on all off-season. Breeze Hall, obvious takeaway. He looked awesome. That's really all that matters.

Alexander Madison, another player, supposedly going to be a bell cow, and it really looked like he was, basically saw the exact same usage Dalvin Cook did last year. I don't know why we wouldn't value him exactly like we did Dalvin last year except, you know, expecting a little lesser efficiency. Travis Etienne, this was another one that was a little complicated. amazing usage in week one amazing you know 80% snap share far and away a career high by route share 15.6% target share easily a career best and this comes after you know reports this off season that he was working in with the wide receiver group at times in training camp there was one hole you could poke in it though and i think this is legitimately worrisome so tank Bigsby saw two of the team's two opportunities inside the 10-yard line.

The team was dropping hints all offseason that we could see Bigsby in the goal line role. Etienne was one of the league's least efficient runners inside the red zone last year. And so to me, Etienne is a highest end bell cow everywhere, except where it matters the most inside the 10-yard line. Balance those two points. What do you get? It means, I think he was probably a good pick at ADP. I don't think he's going to be a league winner,

but if he matches or beats his ADP, yeah, I could definitely, I could definitely see that happening. Number 19, running backs trending down. Naji Harris, got to start off with old Naji. Yeah, this is a disgusting 50-50 committee backfield on a bad team. I wouldn't be excited to own Jalen Warren. And Naji's looking like one of the worst picks you can make. Damien Pierce, maybe I'm just panicking here.

Maybe this is just like emotional. But like I hadn't buried in my rankings. And then preseason usage is an every down running back. And that doesn't always mean anything. That was the case with David Montgomery two seasons ago. It was the case with Kille Herbert. this past off season. They're also, you know, from reading interviews with the coaches, you know,

they kept talking him up as a pass catcher. He was like, why do you think I dropped all this weight, man? It's because Bobby Sloak wants me running all these routes. And I'm like, okay, it's a bad offense, bad offensive line. But if he's a bell cow, you know, and this is a player, I think, is really talented. And then in week one, it was really bad, unideal game script. So you could put some of the blame on that, but only 48% of the snaps. Only 11 of 18 carries 61%.

Only 2 of 5 targets out of the backfield. He's out-targeted by Mike Boone, who ran only two fewer routes. This looks like a committee. This looks like a bad offense. This looks like a bad offensive line. He's going to have better days for sure. He's just going to be very game script-dependent. The problem is I just don't see.

lot of games with really good game script. Texans ranked second worst in Super Bowl odds. So, yeah, if I could go back in time right now, for some reason, like, maybe it's not warranted, but this would be the first thing I would do is I would just go back to where I initially had him ranked. But this one could be an overreaction. The Chicago Bears running backs, maybe it's a little more complicated than this, but I just think it's a gross three-way committee on a bad team, maybe four-way committee if you want to

count Justin Fields. Another takeaway, Zach Moss, should be owned in 100% of leagues, saying he was one of the best draft picks he could make, but he's only 7% owned in Yahoo Leagues. A great volume of the tail end of last year, 17.3 carries was good with it, 83.5 rushing yards per game. And then Dion Jackson had the third best volume of any running back last week. And he was so bad. He was historically bad.

Evan Hall is hurt. You listen to our podcast with Adam Schaefter, and it doesn't sound like Jonathan Taylor will ever play for the Colts again. He could be a fantasy starter for you. Right now, he's unowned in 93% of leagues. I think that's crazy. Some other running backs, number 20.

Aaron Jones, he looks like a sell high candidate to me. I mean, he was dancing circles around A.J. Dillon, 11.5 yards per touch for Jones 2.4 for Dylan Dylan. Dylan is so bad. Aaron Jones is so good. But for some reason, these coaches won a 50-50 committee backfield. If you exclude the fourth quarter because of Aaron Jones's injury, he barely out-snapped Dylan, mashed him in carries, only saw two more targets. And Dylan out-carried Jones three to one inside the 10-yard line. That's the exact same ratio we've seen since week 10 of 2021. I mean, the Packers should give Aaron Jones all of the Red Zone work.

He's so much better at it. He's one of the most efficient Red Zone touchdown scores of the past decade. But, you know, it's not what the coaching staff should do. It's what they will do. And right now, this is, you know, yeah, he finishes the RB1 in the week. but this is not anything close to RB1 usage or RB1 volume. And then Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixen, Sequin Barclay, it was either just as good usage as we should have expected

or maybe a little bit better, kind of wait and see there. Sequin Barclay, yeah, not every game is going to look like that. I think he's going to drop 20 plus fantasy points this week on Arizona. We'll see. But again, monitor that offensive line. Brian Robinson, I think he's a sell high candidate. He saw a little bit better work than I expected, but Antonio Gibson did fumble early in that game. To me, this is a gross three-way committee backfield and a bad offense.

I think Chris Rodriguez is going to get a little bit more work than people are thinking he might. But I mean, even two-way committee backfield and a bad offense. I don't know. I'm pretty pessimistic there that he's ever a player you're excited to start. Chivante Williams, really encouraging usage for a player, you know, who's coming off of ACL surgery. He beat his timeline and basically got, you know, 60% of the work. That's really good. And remember, Sean Payton, another coach who likes to run the offense through the running backs and to great results.

So Chavante Williams, I think, is a near lock to beat his ADP. It was going really late in drafts. Then we move on to the wide receiver. section number 21 if we were redrafting today tyriek hill would be the 101 i think he's going to break the nfl record for single season receiving yards i wanted to put him as my 101 i didn't have the cahones to do it but i wanted to the big concern was just whether or not twoa stays healthy um his numbers last year were insane so much more impressive than jefferson's in my opinion and then week one was just absolutely nuts.

15 targets, 11 catches, 215 yards, two touchdowns. This is the best wide receiver in the game. Hot take, I think he's better than Calvin Johnson. I was getting skewered for that on Twitter, but that's what I think. Just like in terms of what he brings to the table, you know, he keeps defensive coordinators up at night. There's, and even so, there's just like no real way to stop him. Alex Smith, I mean, he was, you know, the worst deep ball thrower in football.

And just overnight, he was, what, number two, number three, in MVP voting that year, led the league in pass-a-rating, led the league in deep passing guards. And you saw the same thing with Tua, you know, everyone wrote off Tua. And now he's like the best quarterback in football. And I really think Tariq Hill is a big reason why. number 22 puka nakua and zay flowers historically great NFL debuts. Those two players led all receivers and target share in the week. Historically great numbers for a rookie. It really to me seemed like Nakua was in that Cooper Cup role,

which, you know, just by, you know, Target Share, first read Target Share, he was that guy and it was like an amazing role he looked awesome played really well the guy's making his first ever NFL game and i do think this is an offense to be excited about i think this is a player to get excited about you know obviously his upside is capped when cooper cup returns but like cap by how much you know robert woods was really successful there for a number of years for fantasy they don't really have too much else. Cup might not even return, in which case,

like, he could be a legitimate league winner. Zay Flowers. His day was actually a little bit less impressive to me. He had a 60% design target percentage, which just sort of means, like, unlike Puka,

you know, he wasn't actually beating NFL cornerbacks. He was just kind of getting layup throws and a bunch of screens. He had a 2.6 ADOT. you know mark andrews wasn't there um but i mean to me the biggest takeaway is just that he's like a ready baltimore's clear wide receiver one objay is super dusty rachad batman 48% route share he's dropable uh and you know this was a player's drafted round one a lot of NFL people were really high on you just hope the uh baltimore passing attack could be as good as uh you know people were

it would be in this Todd Monkin offense. 23, Kansas City Chiefs, wide receivers, TLDR, I'm bullish on Tony, for better or worse, that's where I stand. Sky Moore, I'm not.

I think you've got to give him another week before you drop him, but I think you're probably going to end up dropping him. Justin Ross, you know, like, I mean, Tony was so bad. Sky Moore was so bad.

Given how badly were, yeah, of course I'm still bullish on Justin Ross. I don't think you need to hold on to him in shallow leagues, in deep leagues, I think that's smart. We, too, you know, hope for some sort of increase in route participation. She Rice, you can make a case for stashing.

And VS, I mean, like, he looks like the clear wide receiver one. Basically, there's a lot of upside for being the wide receiver one in a Patrick Mahomes offense. We just aren't too sure who that's going to be right now. But, again, I would bet heavily on Tony for better or worse. Number 24. Calvin Ridley was one of the best draft picks you could have made while Christian Kirk was one of the worst. Ridley, amazing usage. The only concern with him was, was he going to be a true featured wide receiver one in this offense?

Doug Peterson historically spread the ball around quite a bit. And not just that, but like it's every week, it's sort of a different guy. Never really featured a true wide receiver one. I guess that was the one hole you could poke. and Ridley. But then Ian Rappaport told us a little before week one that I don't, no, no, no, no. This is the clear, featured wide receiver one in this offense. And that looked fully on display in week one.

Eight catches, 11 targets, 101 yards, and a score. Trevor Lawrence also did not play very well in this game. He missed a couple of big throws. Again, Ridley, sixth in target share, 10th in air yardage market share, sixth and first retargets. He's awesome. If I were drafting again today, probably taking him top 10 among wide receiver 10 or 11 probably. After Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones is the clear number two on the team, 80% route share,

22% target share, Christian Kirk. Meanwhile, the clear wide receiver 3, 69% route share. Only 9% route share in two wide receiver sets. 9% target share, fifth best on the team. And basically, I was down on Kirk all offseason because of this. He ran the fifth most routes in the NFL last year. But week one, he was just a part-time player. If he had this sort of usage last season, he would have fallen from 1,100 receiving yards,

13th most to 797, 36th most. It's probably still deserving of a roster spot, but I doubt he's ever going to be a wide receiver. You're excited to start. Number 25, all three of the Saints wide receivers looked awesome. Granted, this was against a league, worse, secondary in the Titans. But Chris Olavi was awesome. He missed some time with an injury, but 30% target share, 136 air yards, ranked fourth in yards per route run.

I had 10% of his routes came out of the backfield. You like to see that. We know he's an elite deep threat, but they're also going out of their way to get him some easy cheap PPR targets out of the backfield so that's that's pretty sick Michael Thomas I guess you know big takeaway didn't get hurt had a full-time role eight targets Rashid Shaheed really good usage 66% route share that's pretty good for wide receiver three but Chris Olive did miss time like I said the production was great I think he's really good I said that all offseason I think he's one of the best best ball picks you can make but in terms of him

like a fantasy starter in season long leagues. We'll have to wait and see on that. Number 26. If I were redrafting today, I think I'd probably take Brandon Ayuk over Debo Samuel. I am not super convicted in this, but it's just, I think what IEUK does well is more valuable.

What Debo does well, there's some redundancy to what Christian McCaffrey does well. We saw that at the tail end of last season, Debo declining usage post-McCafrey. and IU just, I think, is incredible. Brett Whitefield, our film expert, told me all offseason, this is already a top 10 wide receiver in the NFL based on film study. And I think he was right.

Number 27, Jacoby Myers looks like one of the best picks he could have made in bestball leagues. His week one usage was legitimately mind-blowingly good. Granted, Devante Adams was shadowed by Patrick Sartan. Jacoby Myers also currently in the Concussion Protocol. call, but like seriously, amazing usage. He tied Tyreek Hill and fantasy points for route run, ranked first in XFP per route run, uh, 14th in air yardage market share. So he's not being used like he was in New England, 100% end zone target share. Uh, really ridiculously good usage. Uh, he could be a thing. You know, my initial read was like, all right, one of the best,

basketball picks he could have made, but now I'm thinking he could even be a thing in season long leagues. some other wide receivers trending up my guy Elijah Moore really really good usage week one you know I was saying all offseason one of the best values of the position so chance he could be Cleveland's wide receiver one it's too early to tell marie cooper did miss some time in that game with an injury and tied Elijah Moore and target share nonetheless but still usage was really good even though if the results weren't great and a weird game were lots and shrugly I struggled.

Bullish on him. Michael Pittman. I went into more detail in the article, but amazing usage week one. I don't think there's any reason to doubt that he's just the alpha wide receiver one in this offense now. And it's just how good and consistently good can Anthony Richardson be as a quarterback. Nico Collins, wasn't really drafting him in any of my leagues, but he does seem to be the wide receiver one. Houston also passed more than expected. He saw a wide receiver one volume.

I don't know that that's going to be the case every week, but it was, again, really good. Robert Woods, 10 targets, not bad either. I wouldn't expect too much better results. I'm really worried about this Houston passing attack, but again, the volume was really strong. Jordan Addison, you know, the usage wasn't great, but pretty much was.

you would expect from a rookie wide receiver making their NFL debut. Remember Justin Jefferson only played on 61% of the team snaps. And his first two career game is the Vikings and he destroyed from week three on. I think something like that's going to be the case with Addison. He looked great, you know, ran fewer routes than KJ Osborne, but matched him in target share. Still bullish on him. DeAndre Hopkins, great usage in week one. Easy like mid-range wide receiver one usage, maybe even a little bit better than that. Ryan Tano was terrible,

like the worst we've seen from him since the Adam Gaystays. If he rebounds, you know, he should. You know, maybe it'll turn into legitimate wide receiver one production, but the usage is great so far. Keenan Allen, too,

is one of the guys I was really high on all offseason. One of the most mispraced players and all of fantasy drafts. He's finished top six and our top 12 in fantasy points per game in six straight seasons. He was being hyped up as the new CDLAM in this Kellynmore offense by Kellynne Moore. If you include plays negated due to penalty, he saw 12 targets on 37 passes, finishes the wide receiver 5 by XFP, really encouraging.

Wide receivers treading down. Drake London, DJ Moore, so bad. So bad. It's not enough that you're on a run-heavy team, but when you're on a run-heavy team with an inaccurate quarterback, it gets really bad. And then when you have like a zero to 9% target share, it gets even worse.

I think they both had somewhere around a 5.5% target share. Oh, it's so bad for both of those guys. DJ Moore, I think, is going to rebound a little bit. You know, he's going to get a higher target share. He's not going to be up against Jari, Alexander, every week. but it's, yeah, it's, it's not good. Definitely going to be inconsistent at the very least. Brandon Cook's, his route share was a little worrisome,

but it looks like he got hurt in that game, so you can not really worry at all about that. Jackson Spiff and Jigba was worrisome. Seattle actually increased the rate or decreased the rate of 11 personnel from a year ago. Pete Carroll said, We shouldn't expect their rate of three wide receiver sets to increase just because they drafted a wide receiver in round one. And that does appear to be the case.

Was the clear wide receiver three was coming off the field in two wide receiver sets? His 62% route share ranked 78th among all wide receivers. The good news, I guess, is D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett did come off the field a little bit more than I expected. JSN did come into this game with a wrist injury. Rookie wide receivers do tend to start slow before breaking out. And this is a player I loved. I think if you went to like two dozen other teams, I would have promised you 100 catches this year.

Probably something to just monitor, not necessarily, you know, really disappointing. Honestly, basically exactly what I expected. But a little bit better target share, to be honest. Gabriel Davis really bad mostly just because Sean McDermott threw him under the bus he asked about the team lacking as strong number two and he was just like yeah we need that

maybe that's to motivate Gabe Davis to step up or maybe it's Sean McDermott waving the white flag on him some players who are droppable based on route participation that would be Rashad Bateman Quentin Johnston I think he could be Quentin Johnston, I think could be a fantasy difference maker eventually. I just don't think you really need to hold on to him right now. Marvin Mims is dropable.

Hunter Renfro. Dropable. Ron Dale Moore. Dropable. Number 29, we move on to the tight end position. And so the tight end position is always a barren wasteland outside of the top two or three oligarchs. You just have a bunch of peasants.

But it was so bad in week one. Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews didn't play. They scored zero fantasy points, same as Dallas Goddard, who did play. More so than any other tight end, actually, by Routshare. Only two tight ends hit double-digit fantasy points in week one. That was the tide for the lowest amount in at least a decade. Here were the top five tight ends in half-point PPR league. So you're ready for this?

Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst, Donald Parham, Blake Bell, Harrison Bryant. Only Hayden Hearst was drafted as the tight end one on his own team, if you can believe that. So with tight end, you know, especially week one too, we're not really looking too much of production. We're focusing on usage, which is what we've mostly done for the other positions. And so here are some tight ends trending up by usage. Chico Conquo. Probably not too many other people have him trending up, but I certainly do. He scored zero fantasy points of week one.

But Ryan Tanil was terrible. and not only that, it was a worst possible matchup. New Orleans has been amazing against tight ends for, I don't know, about six straight seasons. The big thing is that his route share jumped from 30% a season ago to 74% in week one that ranked 12th best among all tight ends. And so last year, Oconquo put together one of the most hyper-efficient tight-end seasons ever. Led the league, led the position in yards for route run, ranked seventh best, since 2009, the only rookie to rank that highly, 2.61 yards per route run.

So basically, if he maintained that efficiency, which probably isn't too likely, but if he maintained that efficiency and kept this usage we saw from him in week one, we should expect 75.7 receiving yards per game would have ranked only three yards per game behind Travis Kelsey on like 20 yards per game ahead of anyone else.

So that's just, you know, a taste of his upside. Player I was really high on. Maybe it's take lock. I don't think it is. But yeah, I think he's going to be a thing. I'm also a known Traylon Berkshater. So I'm still kind of envisioning him as the number two receiver on the team. Maybe that's wrong.

You know, I am on an island there, but crazy bullish on Chigo Conquo. And nothing about week one has me too worried. Beyond that rookie tight end. friends, Luke Musgrave, Dalton Kincaid, Sam Laporta, all impressed, really terrific usage, a really rare usage for a rookie tight end. So I'm opens the idea that these three are outliers where, you know, typically it's smart to fade rookie tight ends, but I think these guys are going to be exceptions to the rule. But not Michael Mayer, who barely played.

But those three guys, Luke Musgrave, Dalton Kincaid, Sam, Laporte. quarter to varying degrees. I don't know that there are ever players you're excited to start, but like I'd say all three probably beat their ADP. Dallas Goddert led all tight ends in Routcher. He scored zero fantasy points. Who cares? I think he did that last year and then dropped like 26 the next week.

Don't worry about him. Zach Ertz? Yo, I'm excited about Zach Ertz. This is crazy. He ranked second in Routher in the week. He ranked first in targets. He saw 10. Let all tight ends.

in XFP, but not only that, like, dominated in XFP, actually, 5.1 more than the next closest tight end. But he ranked fourth among all players in XFP per route run. Believe it or not, since Zach Ertz joined Arizona in healthy games, he's seen double-digit targets in 8 of 13, averages nine targets per game more than any other tight-end, 12.4 fantasy points per game. That's top five numbers. definitely worth a roster spot.

I can see him being an every week starter for you. I can see him being tight end five, tight end six by season's end. So he's definitely someone who excites me. Logan Thomas, same thing, but to a lesser extent. He only had a 67% route share. But, you know, he did miss a good chunk of training camp coming back from injury. But otherwise, this volume is stellar. He led the team with eight targets.

more receiving yards than Jehan Dodson or Terry McLaurin, ranked second XFP per route run tied with Jamar Chase. And we heard all offseason that this tight end position is so important to an Eric B. enemy offense. And I wasn't sure if that was just lazy beat writers or if Eric B. enemy himself was saying something to that effect. But that clearly seemed to be the case. And it's not like Logan Thomas isn't nobody.

He was dominant in 2020 the last time he was healthy. And then he's dealt with injuries ever since. So he's someone I'm pretty excited about. And I don't think anyone else is talking about him. Some other tight ends to get excited about Evan Ingram saw a nice little route share jump, design targets. Colquette, he looked like a bell cow tight end. You know, this isn't a great offense, but his usage was incredible.

100% snapshot share. fifth best route share of the week. 81% up from 73. Dalton Schultz, lack of targets wasn't good, but his route share was even better than it was last season. Kate Otten, he's the clear tight-in-one in Tampa Bay. Pretty good usage. Kylan Granson, clear Titan 1 with the Colts,

only a little bit of a committee. He ranked 15th in route share. Durham Smyth, like amazing usage, 100% snapshot, 85% route share. seven targets, second most on the team. I don't know that he's any good, but I mean, like, this is one of the best offenses in football, and like that's Belkow tight end usage.

So definitely keep your eyes on him. Could be someone to add. Tight end's trending down. I need to take the Allen, Gerald Everett, 45% route share, tied Donald Parham and targets. That's a committee. He's someone you can easily drop. David and Joku, 71% route share,

went down to 63% Harrison Bryant had a pretty good day he's not going to pay off that tight end 8 ADP with that sort of usage Irv Smith 65% route share that's not going to get him done and then wait and see tight ends

Darren Waller limited route share has that hamstring injury which is really worrisome I was drafting him everywhere I was drafting him everywhere and I was drafting him everywhere and I was drafting Christian Watson everywhere and they were both perfectly healthy 10 days ago,

and I don't know what happened, but they both picked up hamstring injuries. All the people who said he's injury prone, you can victory lap that. This is disappointing. Hopefully he's going to be okay. Tyler Higby, better usage than he saw last season, but it wasn't really quite ideal.

Hayden Hurst, he had a productive outing, but the route share was unideal. You can say the same thing about Hunter Henry, 57% route share. That's not great. Jake Ferguson, same thing. Good, good target share, bad route share, 56%. That's like way worse than what we saw from Dalton Schultz last year.

And then I just closed this article with the injuries we're monitoring. Make sure you're up to date on these. Aaron Rogers out for the year with a torn Achilles. Anthony Richardson missed a few snaps in week one, but he's fine. Austin Eccler, we're waiting to hear more on that ankle. J.K. Dobbins, out for the year with a torn of kill. I'llie's Evan Hall on I are going to miss four games. Aaron Jones had a hamstring injury.

He should be fine for week two, but keep an eye on that. Jacoby Myers, he's in the concussion protocol. Deonti Johnson, hamstring injury. He's going to be out a few weeks. That Steelers' offense is going to be a nightmare for however long he's out, maybe for the remainder of the season, in my opinion. Greg Dulcich, hamstring injury in week one. He's going to miss a couple of weeks.

And then Seattle's lost both tackles. I haven't seen an update on their injuries, but I mean, their offense imploded after they got hurt. And to make you a little nervous, the Seahawks did sign a 41-year-old Jason Peters on Tuesday. But that's about it. Those are the injuries you need to know.

And those are the, I don't know what it was, 35 stats or big takeaways. You need to know from week one. Hopefully this is going to help you gain a major edge on your opposition. And if you like this, you know, check of this article. It comes out every week behind a paywall over at fantasypoints.com. That's it for me, guys.

Peace. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.