Fantasy Football Daily - Seattle Seahawks with Michael-Shawn Dugar | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: July 26, 2023

The Seahawks' run to the playoffs in 2022 was one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, and Geno Smith earned every bit of the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. What's next for Pete Carroll and the boys? Michael-Shawn Dugar (@MikeDugar) of @TheAthletic sits down with Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) to talk Geno's expectations, how the Seahawks' loaded backfield will be deployed, and statistical thresholds for rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points Podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. The franchise focused podcast series on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network. I'm your host, Joe Dolan, and our long journey is coming to a close. 32 teams in 32 days, occasionally skipping a day here and there. But essentially in one month, we have a podcast for each NFL team, starting with the AFC East and now wrapping up with the NFC West.

I hope you enjoyed this journey as much as I did. I hope you learned as much as I did. Getting Intel on camp battles, potential sleepers, injuries, who's going to be back early in training camp, who might not be back until a little bit later in the summer, contract situations. All of that has been covered. I just want to thank all of my co-hosts for scheduling these.

It was not a fun job scheduling the podcast. Once I started recording them, that's when I really started to enjoy it. Scheduling and getting people all on the same page was not the most fun, but everybody who I had on this podcast was so excited to join me. And it was such a pleasant experience once I got these things scheduled that I really can't imagine not doing this next year, even though it was a massive stress item in my life. But I think the fruits of the labor have really borne out here with all the information that we have acquired throughout the franchise focus podcast series.

We also, by the way, if you just listen to this and you're not subscribed to fantasypoints.com, we also did an accompanying article for all 32 NFL teams in which we broke down, did a full breakdown of every player projected, on those 32 teams, including John Hansen's final thoughts and how he's approaching all the teams. So I want to thank everybody for reading those articles. Tom Broley, Ryan Heath, Jake Tribby contributing to those articles. The guys did a wonderful job. Tom Brawley also did a full betting preview for all 32 teams. The guy is just a machine, so I really hope you check that out. And finally, we launched the Fantasy Points Data Suite last week, and to say the reception's

been great is an understatement. I think the industry is enjoying it, and I think the industry is seeing the potential of the fantasy points data suite. If you haven't signed up for the data suite and given a look at everything that the tool can do, you can go and sign up for a free seven-day trial. It will not charge your credit card for seven days, and you can decide that the data suite is something you want to add to your fantasy football research this year. It has been a big research month here with the franchise focus podcast series and the fantasy points data suite. I hope everybody is along for the ride and I hope everybody is ready for training camp in the preseason. That is what this series was leading into.

And without further ado, here is our final division, the NFC West. Welcome to the 32nd and final edition of the franchise focus here in 2023. We have journeyed through every division. We, of course, wrapped up with the NFC West. and that means, well, the only team we have left to cover is the Seattle Seahawks. I have one of the best to talk Seahawks. His name is Michael Sean Dugar, and he covers the Seahawks for the athletic, and of course he hosts the Seahawks Man to Man podcast.

You can follow him on Twitter at Mike Dugar. Mike, welcome to the program. Thank you for being a repeat, I guess a repeat offender if you're coming on my podcast twice. But thank you for doing this. It's going to be fun to talk some Seahawks with you. Yeah, thank you for having, man. I appreciate it. So, Mike, I think the Seahawks were one of the best.

big surprise teams of the NFL last year. And I've asked a handful of my co-hosts here about like a vibe check. The vibes in Seattle were just completely different with Gino Smith at quarterback than they were with Russell Wilson. At least that's how I feel. How do you feel about that? And do you think those good vibes will carry into 2023 with Gino now under a new contract? Yeah, I do think the vibes were a lot different. And some of that just started, it starts at the top with the vibes in most buildings, to be honest, the good ones or the bad ones. And they obviously wanted to get rid of Russell Wilson. That's why they traded him. They were done with the offseason rumors and the contentious debates about how the offense should look and dealing with him flirting with like

playing baseball, you know, whenever it was contract. I mean, I just kind of wore on the people at the top. And when that was kind of lifted from their shoulders, like, all right, cool, whole new energy now. And that energy then translated down to the coaches staff, some of who were new last year, new defensive coordinator, new DB coach, new assistant D coordinator kind of in Sean Desai, who's now with the Eagles. They just had a lot of new and it just trickled down. And a lot of guys believed in Gino already. I liked his first sentence of his Players Tribune article. He says people think like I just showed up last year. Like, yeah, Last year was like his fourth season in Seattle.

Yeah. That's a big deal. It's very hard to come into a new situation and just command everything, whether you're a rookie or a veteran, whether you're like Anthony Richardson doing it now or Aaron Rogers doing it now. It's just hard. Gino wasn't doing that. Like, man, I've been here.

I got the same locker. I got a parking space. You know, I already got a place here. I know the cooks, no security guy. And it's little stuff, but all that does matter when you're actually to lead the show. So I do think that that helped the transition a lot, that it wasn't, not to shade him,

but it wasn't Drew Locke. Drew Locke would have been coming here from Denver and year four as well, I believe, or just year four in his whole career, not year four with the Seahawks. So year four, that's just been harder to do. And he's not as good as Gino. But I do think that that Gino, in its familiarity, was a big part of why the vibes are so different and why everything just kind of went smoothly transitioning from Russ to him.

What was it about Gino's game that maybe made this offense a little bit more consistent than it was in maybe Russ's last couple years? I think being on the same page about how they wanted to attack teams offensively was huge. It's running the same page in those last few years. I mean, you could see it on the

field for sure, particularly in 2020, which is why when Brian Schontenheimer got fired, it's the OC at the time, the press release said he got fired due to philosophical differences. And I was like, that's huge. That's usually never the case. Usually they just kick to the curb, you know, and then that's it. We don't want to

why? Or they explained it later in a press conference. They're like, nah, we just don't see eye to eye on how we should do things from a philosophical standpoint. That's pretty deep. But if anyone who watched the game, you watch the film, you can see it. The same thing existed in 2021. The philosophical differences just shifted between Schadenheimer and whoever else to Russ and whoever else. So I think that in 2022 was kind of clear like, this is what we're going to be for better

or worse. And that shifted a little bit after week two when Pete was like, oh, Gino's good. Let's throw it. But by and large, they were all on the same page about how they were going to attack teams. It didn't always work. They stunk at running the ball for like a five-week stretch in November or December. But they knew what they wanted to be, which was just important. I think that matter.

The other thing was Gino is, he just wants to smoke. You know what I mean? When it comes to black concepts, he's reading everything high to low, but it's like if there's a chance to take a shot, he's going to take it. If he can fit a ball somewhere, he's going to take it. He's not a dink and dunk all-star. You know, he was to start those first two weeks that I mentioned. I think he was last in the league in air yards per attempt.

And then from week three on, he was like a top 10 guy, I believe, and just way better. It wasn't last, let's put it that way. So he just started airing it out while leading the league in completion percentage too. So not only was Gino like a big game hunter, he was also very accurate, which is, that's a pretty lethal combination when you think. think about it, which is why he was so impressive last year. So I think that is part of it because this is not a dink and dunk scheme that Shane Waldron the new OC runs. Like he wants you to take

those shots. And he wants you to take those shots to everybody, not just D.K. He wants you to try them to Noah and Kobe Parkinson and Tyler and Marquis Goodwin and whoever. And I feel like that was a big part of why the offense was so good. And the accuracy, man. Go watch some of these. And now we're in the NFL offseason where the NFL account just treats. random highlights every once in a while. Just look at the ones that are Gino. Man, those are some tough throws that he makes. And those are some seriously like,

whole shit, this is the actual pro day throw in a game that he was making. Like, I think that was another part of it as well. So, you know, Gino's a pocket passer. He's a processor. And the Seahawks kind of leaned into that. I mean, their first round pick was Jackson Smith and Jigba. This has been a team that since DK arrived, it's been DK, it's been top.

it's been Tyler and it's just been random smattering of number three receivers who are contributing. But you make an investment in Jackson Smith and Jigba, the Seahawks do. There's an expectation that he's going to come in and play right away. You mentioned reading high to low. You know, DK can get deep. Tyler can get deep.

Smith and Jigba probably more of a slot type of guy. But how do you expect him to fit into this offense from day one which I expect to be a pretty significant role? Yeah, I think that I'm struggling with how to quantify the type of impact he will have. I've kind of come to terms with that. It won't be high volume just because you just look at the target shares, D.K. and Tyler are getting and how efficient the offenses have been. I just see no reason to deviate from that.

Where I think Jackson can help the team and help them be efficient in some situational football, Seattle, whether with Russ or Gino has been a pretty anywhere from a mediocre to just bad third down team, particularly on third and we're going to throw downs, you know, basically third and four or longer. It's been not very good for a myriad of reasons, but I do think Jackson can help there. I think last year, like I have a third down cut up of, you know, my computer. You can just see him like he's a sitting duck just waiting for yards to clear the routs to clear the sticks because there are terrible yards after catch team that also precedes Gino. That might even perceive Russ as well.

I think Jackson can help with moving the sticks on third down and part because you don't have to, if it's third and eight, he doesn't have to run eight yard route. He can run a six yard route. He's probably going to get those extra. you might get more than two. It doesn't matter. All of the needs, too. So I do think that that's a very small thing, but it will help the overall efficiency numbers, even if Jackson doesn't have a lot of volume. Like, he could have a few games where he has three catches for 33 yards, but that might be three first down catches, you know, maybe even if he doesn't score like,

all right, well, now you're 100% of the time when you touch the ball, we move the sticks. That's huge. That's huge. Whether you're a Tyree killer, you're Jackson Smith and Jigpa. So I do think he'll help in that area. That would help them also in the red zone, not a very efficient. red zone team last year. Gino forced a lot of balls to DK in the red zone. Now, I would too if I was Gino, to be fair. It just wasn't a very efficient throw. I forget what the numbers is, but it wasn't great.

So I think Jackson helps them there. In terms of volume, I'm just spitballing on this. David Moore's 2020 season playing with D.K. and Tyler is like an interesting baseline. I think it's like 35 catches, 400 and some odd yards and about six touchdowns. those numbers don't jump out much. You play the DK and Tyler, right? I think David that year got 47 targets, which for a number three receiver, like you really can't expect that many more realistically, I don't think,

unless you're, you know, greatest show on turf offense or something, or that 2007 Patriots. So I think that that's a decent baseline. Like if Jackson hits those numbers, I think it would be great, particularly that touchdown number, I believe, off the top of my head, I looked up the other day. I think David was either number two or number three in touchdowns per target that year. I think it was like him and adding feeling.

So it's like 47 targets and six touchdowns. That's pretty impressive, man. Anyone who's ever had Keenan Allen in a fantasy knows how tough it is for him to get the six touchdowns and a whole season with all the targets that he gets. DJ Moore too, yeah. Yeah, like Julio Jones. Yeah, exactly. It's hard to score touchdowns and David was doing it.

So I think that that would be a nice kind of baseline for Jackson. and hit maybe more catches because David was a big play guy. But even if Jackson hits 35 catches, 400-ish yards, six touchdowns, 17-game season, I think that's fine for a rookie because you've got to imagine there's 200 plus targets going to, you know, two of the guys in D.K. And Tyler, not to mention the tight end group. You did nail the 47 targets right off the top of your head, by the way. That's exactly what he had in that season.

So I look at Kenneth Walker, who we'll obviously talk about the elephant in the room here. But when I looked at Kenneth Walker and I watched him last year, the thing that struck me was he wasn't your traditional Pete Carroll, Seahawks running back. When he came out, Greg Kossel called him a jazz musician. He was an improviser. He was always looking for, he was going to search around for the right note. He was a big play kind of guy. Do you think that's a fair assessment based on what you watched from Kenneth Walker in 2022 as a rookie? Yeah, I think that first game, again, it's like when you watch Ken, like that's the first in the jump start with this college or the pros, right?

You look at his, I forget where his first game that I watched him in college, I think it was Rutgers. He took like a huge run to the house. And then you watched the Michigan game. That was the first game I watched him like live. I was like, oh, my God, this dude is serious. Like five or six touchdowns in that game. But it wasn't just like, he wasn't goal line hunting like Jamal Williams was last year for the Lions. So, yeah, like 17 touchdowns, but none over like nine yards or something.

No, no, no. Ken is explosive. Ken's first, like, extended action last year. It was week five at New Orleans after Rashar Penny broke his leg. And Kent took like a 60-yard touchdown to the house almost immediately because he can do stuff like that. He's just a really, really, really explosive guy. And that's why they felt, that's one of the reasons they felt comfortable taking him so high. He was the 41st pick because we feel like on first and 10 from the 30,

there's a chance we might score on. like outside zone. It's unlikely we score, but he gives us a chance. And that's just something their previous running backs outside of Rashad Penny, who for sure gave them that. Everyone else kind of did not. You know, they flirt with Eddie Lacey, Thomas Rawls, Chris Carson, even Marshawn Lynch really wasn't, you know,

taking a 75 yards to the house. So like you said, that's not really a normal Pete Carroll guy. It's not like he hasn't had big play guys in the past. He's had them every once in a while. And C.J. Pro Seis from Notre Dame at the 2016 class was pretty explosive. at Jady McKissick on the roster for a few years. Also pretty explosive kind of scat-back guy. But Ken is just so powerful.

So he gets the hard yards and he can just run by your safetys, your linebackers, and your corners. He's a really unique guy in that way. The problem is, like I said from Greg, he will search for that big play and then that can lead to a negative play. I think it was Ken and every running back not named Breeze Hall for the Jets that were at the highest level of. percentage of their runs that went for negative yards or nothing at all.

That's not everywhere you want to be. Like you want to be with Breece Hall in categories last year. Not every other Jets running back. That's bad. So I think that's why they then took Zach Charbonnet to kind of fix that because he's not the jazz guy. He's like, this is power. I'm going to run power. We're going to get four yards and it's fine because we didn't lose any yards.

And we also didn't score, but we did what the run was designed to do. So your colleague Corbyn Smith from SI, he tweeted out, at this point it was it was yesterday. But if you're listening to this, it was a couple weeks ago. He tweeted out that he doesn't think Zach Charbonnet is going to take a significant chunk of Ken Walker's touches. Ken Walker was at around 17 a game last year. And he thinks he's going to be at that kind of that same number. Do you see it the same way?

Or is it going to be kind of a game game thing in your opinion? Yeah, I agree with Corbyn's kind of overall assessment there. I've written that as well, that I, just don't think that Zach's going to get the volume to be the type of guy that he needs to be. And the more I've talked to running backs about why that can happen is that they're, by and large, unless you're the third down guy. And even then that you're more past blocking and catching. Running backs are not relief pitchers, you know, or at least they're not, they're not,

they're not short-ending relief pitches, right? Then I come in, it's like, I'm going to just throw a hundred real fast. Like, I warmed up for a couple minutes, here's some gas. No, no, no, no. They need some time. that's usually that's what i've been to whenever i talked to running backs about it a few exceptions here and there but for the most part it's like now i need some carries to figure out how they're playing things how the blocks are coming together yada yada and that's a game to game thing so i mean

rashat penny was a great example of that like anytime he got like four or five carries when he was backing up chris carson he didn't do that with those carries yeah look at the games where he was played with chris cars and he got like double digit carries all right now then he was taking stuff to the house a little bit of chicken and egg thing like did he get those carriage because he was already playing well, yada, yada, yada. But he go look at those games. Like he, it was later in the game when he got a rhythm that he started to cook. So I think that that, I don't know Zach as well. From what I've seen at UCLA, like he was used to getting all the Garry's there and all the catches too. He's caught a bazillion swing passes at UCLA as well.

So I think that's going to be an issue for Zach early on, like not him personally, just if you're like trying to take him in fantasy thinking, all right, they're going to one two punch Zecchio Elliott, Tony Pollard this, I don't really think that'll be the case. I think Ken is so good that he's going to demand touches, you know, and that's, he's earned that. And I think that while he's healthy, it's going to be tough for Zach to get 10 or 11 carries in a game, at least in a game where they're not blowing the other team out. You know, blowouts are different, but I'm talking about a normal game script.

I could see, yeah, Ken can be in anywhere from that 14 to 17 carry number, not to mention plays where he's in and they throw the ball. And then, you know, Zach kind of have him deal with what's left, maybe some short yardage stuff, Voltress and goal line carries, perhaps. So I think that's what I envision for Zach when he and Ken are both healthy. Now obviously the other part of why they took Zach is running bags don't always stay healthy. You know, fingers crossed for Ken, but I think if healthy, it's going to be tough for Zach to really eat the way he has the potential to. Obviously, you would know that the Charbonnet pick in second round blew up fantasy because Ken Walker was probably angling towards being a first.

or second round pick. Now he's a fourth rounder. But I, you know, my assessment of it when I sat down and and I want you to let me know if this is accurate, I don't think Pete Carroll's a galaxy brain guy. I really don't. I think he'll wear his heart on his sleeve. And I think he and John Snyder saw that game. I believe it was against the Rams last year where DJ Dallas essentially had to play the entire second half on a severe ankle sprain. And they just ran out of running backs. And I think Pete Carroll probably said that's never going to happen to me again. Do you think that's a fair assessment? Yeah, he's had that happened a few times.

And credit to DJ, man. DJ could not walk. Yeah, incredible. Couldn't walk. He's limping around and looks like he got like shot in the foot. Like he was in so much pain and he finished that game because they needed it. It's like that scene in Friday Night Lights where they, the movie not the show where they popped the running back shoulder back in and say, all right, man, it's fourth and nine.

We're running a delay, draw. That's a weird play call. Anyway, but yeah, they had that happen in 2019. I want to say as well, Buda Baker broke Chris Carson's hip and CJ Proz's arm, I think, in the same game. I can't remember what year it was, but it was definitely Buddha that did it. And, like, they've had some other games. I mean, they had to call Marshawn off the street in 2019. Yeah.

And they started Travis Homer in that game. And I believe in the Eagles game the next week, too. So Pete has had some games, but it's like, we cannot have this happen again. and it's not to just run out of bodies they run out of capable bodies in some of these instances too. Like they signed Adrian Peterson off the street in 2021 because the running back situation had got so dire.

So yeah, that is the other part of it. It's just we don't I say we, they do not want a situation where they got to give fullback Nick Ballore some carries because they're out of bodies and they've done that too. I forget which

game they did that. So it's been pretty rough with keeping guys healthy at that position. Not just for the Seahawks for a lot of teams, but it feels like the Seahawks in a post-beast mode era. So about 2016 and beyond has just been very, very, very, very rough. So, Mike, I've been wrapping up all these podcasts and you were my 32nd podcast by asking each beat writer analyst, maybe an under-the-radar player on the corresponding team who could be, affect the team for fantasy. The Seahawks are a tough team to find one of those guys, but you did come up with one. Who is it for Seattle? Yeah, I think it would be no offense. I looked at his numbers from last year. I was doing a tight-in piece, or I was going to. I didn't put it out yet.

But I was like, man, Noah had that type of year, huh? And then I looked at some of the plays and was like, oh, okay. Like he had a touchdown against the Niners in week 15 when the score was like six to 20, I think, at the time. Like a garbage time touchdown. He had another one that's the next week against the chiefs, I believe, when the game was out of reach. he has some catches like that because like that right there i think that goes takes him from two touchdowns to four and they were just largely meaningless plays so i think that he is gino's garbage time guy which for better or worse that's great i mean who knows if that remains true when he has jackson

smith and jigba next year but that's in fantasy doesn't really matter where you catch him i won a league before off a random germane curse touchdown like week 17 before is obviously a few years back but You don't care when they catch them. You just care that they catch them. So I think Noah could be that. And he had a decent year last year. I don't know all the numbers off the top. I do.

He had four touchdowns, but which I believe ties a single season career high for him. So that's a route where he usually produces at best, at least when he was in Denver. But the Seahawks had, I think all their tight ends had over 300 yards. They're the only team with three to do that, which is that speaks to how much Gino was spreading the wealth around there.

Well, Dissie got hurt late in the year. but I still think everyone would have hit the 300 marks. So, yeah, no would be my guy if I had to pick one because you already know what Ken's going to do. Tyler, I know, and he, Tyler's aware of how frustrating he can be in fantasy. Of course. He's not as, I think I was just joking with somebody about this. The game he had 200 yards, I think I guess the Cardinals and with five or six of 2020. The next week he had like 20 yards.

So it's like, and he's aware. He knows how many yards each game. But you still know what he's going to do, right? Talo is the only player at any position with at least a thousand yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last four seasons. So you know what Tala's going to do. You know what DK's going to do. We can pretty confidently say what Ken is going to do.

So I think the maybe surprised guy who was just going to help you out on a biweek or get you through some injuries is probably no fan who he does catch touchdowns from Gino at the end of the day. His name is Michael Sean Dugard. He covers the Seahawks for the athletic. and obviously you get these fantastic insights on the Seahawks man-to-man podcast. Follow him at Mike Dugar on Twitter. Mike, thank you for being the 30-second and final franchise focus podcast for me. My name's Joe Dolan.

I need to go take a shower, get something to eat. It has been an absolute grind. I hope everybody enjoyed the podcast series. It's training camp time. It's pre-season time. It's 2023 NFL season time. I hope everybody enjoyed the series, and I'll talk to you shortly. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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