Fantasy Football Daily - Shocking Revelations from 2024 Dynasty Rookie Drafts | With Danny Kelly of The Ringer

Episode Date: April 17, 2024

The 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft season is here and the difficulties this class brings outside of the top six is starting to cause a buzz. Special guest Danny Kelly joins Dynasty Points to discuss the top picks, surprises, and potential breakout stars in this year's draft class and the frustration of the second round when you get to be on the clock. You won't want to miss this if you're a Dynasty Points player! Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us:   / elnostrathomas     / jakobsanderson     / lgilbertff     / dannybkelly   FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter -   / fantasypts   Facebook -   / fantasypts   Instagram -   / fantasypts   #fantasypoints #fantasyfootball #nfl #nfl #fantasyfootball #bestball #dynasty #dfs #nflbetting #FantasyFootballAdvice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ontario, the wait is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget online casino is live. Bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots that can turn any mundane moment into a golden, opportunity at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Take a spin on the slots, challenge yourself at the

tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you can go for the gold at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Gambling problem call connects Ontario 1866531-260. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See Golden Nuggett Casino.com for details. Please play responsibly. There's only a couple of weeks left until the draft. There's only so much that we can talk about. So why could we possibly still be bringing in top end guess week after week after week after week? Isn't it going to get mundane?

Isn't it going to get repetitive and overall? No. Because this week we have somebody who's just as big of a degenerate as we are hitting rookie drafts before the NFL draft the way the game was meant to be played. We come through here swinging with big punches, much like UFC 300. Oh my goodness. Today, of course, is no different than any other day. If you're watching over on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel,

and you have not already, you need to hit the button, ring the bell, leave a comment, do all the things that help us move further on this algorithm so we can continue doing shows like this one. I, of course, am your host with the most time on his hands. I am Thomas. You can find me at El Noster Thomas. My fun fact of the day is in one of the few matches, me and my brother ever wrestled against each other, commentary was done to the promoter by none other than the honky-tonk man.

And when we went backstage, he looked at us in the face and said, the next time he tells you to go 10 minutes, tell him off, and go 20. That's fun. I'm Jacob Sanderson. My fun fact, this requires somewhat of a backstory. Tom's the only one here that's met my mom. But my mom is, It's like one of those like charmingly crazy people.

She's like a little bit paranoid about, you know, microwaves. And a little bit paranoid about what people are seeing on the internet. And so when I first got Facebook, which was about five years after everyone else got Facebook, I had inherited that paranoia. So I decided I can't let people know my real birthday. So my fake birthday, when I first got to, Facebook was April 16. And I didn't change it for like years. And so every year on April 16, I would get a bunch of fraudulent happy birthday messages from people who didn't know me and didn't

know when my real birthday was or friends with me on Facebook. And so I just want to wish a happy second birthday to myself. Oh my God. Savvy. Amazing. That's that's pretty good. That's hard top. I'm Luke Skilbert. You can find me on X at L. Gilbert F.F. And it's more of just a fun. take, but there's been a lot of coach movement in college basketball. It's been very fun to follow. But John Caliperi, the coach of the Kentucky Wildcats for the last 15 years, is now at Arkansas, and he's wearing red. And there's just some people who shouldn't wear red is very much a shock to the system to see that.

John Caliperi looks like crap and red. It's just, I don't know if it just doesn't suit him or if it's just completely. different than seeing the blue and I'm so used to hating him in the blue going from Memphis whenever Tennessee beat Memphis to become number one for the first time, which was very fun. Then him going to Kentucky where Tennessee has owned them the last couple of years. It's been, I've just been used to seeing him lose in blue and now I'm going to have to get used to it in red. So that's going to be really fun.

And the new coach interest or entrance for Kentucky, that was that was something to watch. I don't know if I should feel embarrassed for Kentucky fans or if it was actually like a hype. But I don't know. It's just been it's been fun. Today on college basketball today. I just out of curiosity, I just pulled up a photo of John Cal Perry wearing an extremely baggy 90s red jacket when he coached at UMass. So he's going back to his roof. Yeah, that's been a while.

Oh my goodness. Yeah, I completely forgot about that. And of course, our guest. of the evening joining us today. Yeah. I am Danny Kelly. You can find me on Twitter at Danny B. Kelly. I refuse to say X. Thank you.

I'll stick with the weird coaching vibes theme that we're talking about here. The Washington Huskies, who famously lost a title game last year, have now hosted Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll to their practices, which is just the weirdest, most surreal. The Matrix is tweaking out. type of deal I've ever seen in my life. I saw Bill Belichick wearing a bunch of Udub Husky. So anyways, that is a weird fact that I just saw today. And I don't like it. It makes me feel gross. Shout out to him for carrying on the hoodie tradition, though. I mean, could you expect anything?

Yeah, it's just bizarre. I don't get it. That looks Photoshop. I didn't know. I didn't like it. AI is taking over the college coaching media. Weird hand. Like the AI just didn't quite work right now you know you know it's AI and fake because he would just wouldn't be wearing a hoodie I think that that's the day we'll know that it was AI look I mentioned at the top of this year program rookie drafts deserve to be done before the NFL draft and some people don't like this they don't agree with this and they're entitled to their wrong opinion but on this show we're going to hit it first what we're going to do is we've done our intros we've been talking and talking and talking we're going to take a quick break and when we come back we're going to try to dissect

the brain that is danny kelly and why he decides to to do these drafts so we love it sit tight back five seconds okay mr kelly please get people on the right track with us we have talked about this a couple of times this off season we are met with disgust how could you possibly you need the most information. Why do you in these leagues do it before the NFL draft? Well, I'm not the commissioner of these leagues for the record. I kind of just got on that train and decided to keep going with it. But I will say, it makes things way, way more difficult and more challenging.

I think that's kind of a fun part of it. It's like there's a whole other layer to doing pre-draft rookie drafts. And that is doing your best. And I think the most important thing, well, not the most, but one of the most important things is trying to figure out where guys are going to go in the draft. I think that's really fun. And I think that gives me a very slight edge, maybe over some of my competition. Obviously, the industry is extremely sharp.

But, you know, obviously you want to pick the good players, but it helps to pick the players that are going to be taken earlier. Generally, they have longer runway. They have more opportunities, you know, all that stuff that you guys are well aware of. I just think doing pre-jeff rookie drafts is fun because you have to be able to guess and predict where players are going to go, which guys are going to be day two picks and which guys are going to be day three picks and then probably never do anything for your team. I think what makes it the most fun for me is that it becomes very dynamic. Like one of the things that I try to do is if I can't get my rookie drafts before the

NFL draft, then I want them like in August because the worst time for me or literally the day after the draft. But every year it feels like the fun part of the rookie draft is the unknown and this, it feels like this blank canvas where you can trade up and down the board. and try to bend the board to your will and get the guys you want. And after a week or so, especially because just the way the dynasty community works is you probably end up in a lot of leagues with a lot of the same people. You know, it's like you're going into the country club and you're like,

oh, you're the force of ahead of us today, Paul. Yeah. And you kind of know everybody's guys are. And you know there's, you get these tears that become very, very solidified where you kind of know, okay, this is where you want to trade out of. This is where you want to trade into. And it becomes difficult to. maneuver and it becomes kind of boring because every rookie draft effectively becomes somewhat the

same. Whereas pre-NFL draft, you just don't really know everybody's feeling. You don't really know where the tiers are and the tears aren't. You don't know who the landmine is that, oh, congrats, you just spent 205 on a sixth round pick. You know, you don't know who the gem is. Actually, congrats. You just spent the 403 on a second round pick. It just makes for a more dynamic experience. And it's fun to root during the draft, right? Like, that's why it's probably the biggest reason that I enjoy playing Debbie is when I get to watch the NFL draft and like fist pump when some guy goes in the second round that I already have exposure to. Like last year, for instance, you know, Devon A-chan was like a guy who I was preaching

the good word of all throughout the pre-draft period and Kincaid as well. They both get these really lucky draft capital landing spot combination. But outside of like a couple of Debbie shares of A-chan, it's like I didn't really feel like I got any reward for this. It's like, oh, great. Like, now they're really expensive. And, like, there's no edge to being right on them anymore. I don't even know much I could take.

So it's fun to have already done, already have some skin in the game. Oh, that's a great point. The live draft, like updating your rosters and looking at your team and being like, hell, hell, yeah. Yeah, like, just this is one example. But I remember I got, you know, Luke Musgrave in like the middle of the fourth round a bunch last year. People were for some reason just really out on him prior to the draft.

And then he lands in the second round. with the Packers. We'll see if he ends up panning out, obviously. I think he looked pretty good, but Tucker Kraft is still there. And there's a lot of competition for targets. But still, I think, you know, that kind of stuff, those kind of victories are super fun during the draft. Absolutely. And I think a fun thing, at least spending so much time looking at these prospects through a Devilins. We're looking at this year, so I can only think about this year.

I've already forgotten about last year's drafts. But for this year, there's so many players that I feel like are all, like you can argue are all in the same tier. which makes all of these before you get the NFL's input on how they value them, it makes it so much more fun to try to maneuver and see where you're comfortable taking. I don't think you really necessarily even have to move up right now too, which makes it more fun to start moving down, trying to stockpile picks up. I don't know, you can probably go even into the 20s and 30s right now of where you're stockpiling picks and just get the players that you like.

You don't have any guilt behind it either. You don't have to go, well, the NFL really hates, I don't know, Malachi Corley, but I love him, so I still want to take him higher than he probably should go. You can take him right now and have no guilt in that. And that's nice whenever you draft privately based off of those sort of instant reactions, your take lock from watching film on them for however years they've been in college. It just makes me feel a little bit better inside the NFL wrecks it later, but that's fine. This will be the theme of the episode for me when we talk about some round two guys. But like nothing gives me more like personal spiteful joy than drafting in like a rookie draft full of spreadsheet lovers, myself included. And just watching someone take like Sean Tucker three and being like you're going to be yourself in a month.

And just and just scooping up the like 10% of closing line value on like third round Ricky Pierce. or whatever. It really, it really just brings a tear to my eye. Well, and I think you just, you have to have, right, I think you have to have

kind of the stones for it. You know what I mean? Because you could be the Malik Willis person. You could be the Malik Willis 101 person, right, who or someone who trades like a high-end quarterback. You've seen this.

Someone trades a high-end quarterback for Malik Willis and then Malik Willis turns out to be nothing and that player never recovers. That's a miserable situation. That is the fact. this way to have like life's gotten hectic, have to leave.

That's how you create. Yeah, that's how you get. I'm cutting down on my leagues. Yeah. That's the orphan pick, right? But as long as the rest of the league is comfortable with that, I think it is fine.

But if I'm playing the devil's advocate, I understand why people might not want to introduce that level of just horrendousness into their league. I get it. I agree, though. I'm with the fun. I'm with the like, I'm going to set this pick on.

like we're just burning money on Capitol Hill. Like I'm just, I'm ready to do that for sure. It's, it's entirely more fun. That was awesome. I love that. A lot of different opinions on doing a rookie year.

We have one in one full tilt league before we rolled over in the Nancy points where we have the fantasy points, listener leagues. We still have the full tilt leagues that are still alive and very well. We have a draft in two days. It is going to be a lot of fun. I'm excited to do it. and mortified because I have the 108 and I have no idea what I'm going to do.

So I'm going to use Danny Kelly to cement my pick. That way I can push the blame off. Okay. For if it doesn't work out and then take all the credit if it does work. Because Danny, that's how it works in this business, as you know. Oh, yeah. We're going to take another quick break. When we come back, we are going to hit some of these drafts and some of the things that you have seen.

I know you and I have been talking DMs and such. We'll go over that with the people at the other side of this break. Okay, we were talking leading up to this show a little bit about how, and like Jacob said, we want to get the wide receivers not out of the top three. But I want to lead in with this. We were talking about how usually we can rely on analytical profiles or something that's super concrete to make some of these wishy-washy picks instead of insert wide receiver that goes to the bills at 101 8 inside uh insert bow nicks or pennix if they get taken

in the first round and then whatever running back goes to dallas like that's your first 10 picks normally we could target oh this guy's got a phenomenal analytical profile we can definitely feel good about him into 203 none because if you listen to scott barrett and his uh analytics versus film debates with brett whitefield film guys say this is like the best most deepest wide receiver class there is and to take it right from Scott, this is the worst analytical profile wide receiver class that we might have ever seen. So how are you handling these, the tough decisions? And then do you have a lockdown of your wide receivers past one, two, and three? I don't have, I don't have like a very, really strong, I think ranking. Right now for me, it, my 104 or my, my fourth receiver would

probably be Ladd-McConkey. It comes down to him or Brian Thomas. I think, you know, Brian Thomas is probably going to go top 15. So it's hard to really know or that. Well, I don't know, top 20 at least. Um, based on everything and a half over under for the people. Yeah. I mean, I think like there's a chance. We see a team like the bills trade up for him. Um, you know, there's plenty of teams in that range that could take him at 15 Jacksonville. 17 are both very possible. And since he's in there, it wouldn't be too surprising to see them kind of invest in a guy and then move on from T. Higgins. So, um, I think the league likes Brian Thomas. I like Brian Thomas in theory, but again, this is the class where there's just a bunch of extremely scary analytical

profiles attached to guys whose tape is pretty exciting. So, um, you know, obviously Brian Thomas and 80 Mitchell are the two guys for me that I think the biggest boomer bus players I've maybe looked at in the last like five or six years, just players that I like, I like, I like, AD Mitchell a lot. When I watched him, I was like, this guy's awesome. This was before I sort of dug into the analytical profile. It's just like my first impression was this guy moves different. He's extremely explosive, extremely twitchy, catches everything.

And why are people not talking about him as a first rounder? And then lo and behold, he is now talked about it as like a probable first rounder. And unfortunately, he is the most bottom left quadrant receiver I've ever seen in my life in terms of like every graph or, you know, every graph or table that you see is literally like last. He's the worst, like the worst guy you could imagine being on pretty much everything I've ever seen.

So that's scary. So I really don't know what to do with those guys. Again, it's just you kind of have to take a leap of faith or just take a running back. Take one of Trey Benson or Jonathan Brooks at that spot. I've seen a lot of J.G. McCarthy going at 108, which makes sense because he's probably going to be a top 15 pick. Yeah, I don't think he'll be 108 for long, honestly. And so I've had a couple of 108s. I've taken McCarthy a couple times.

I'd be willing to take Brian Thomas there and just kind of hope it works out, but I'd be scared about it. And then if I had my preference, I'd probably take Ladd-McConkie there just because I think, even though his profile isn't awesome either. I just have, I can picture him being a high-volume target in the NFL. I'll make the case for McConkey.

And just so I don't get caught in a Giovante-William situation from last week. That's right. You liar. For the record, for the record, I would then went and traded for Giovante Williams in two leagues after that episode. So I backed myself up. But just making up for being an absolute fraud live on air. The back story for this, Danny, is that I caped hard for Giovante Williams being being talked about too meanly, mostly by Tom. And then realize the two of the three players that I said you should be ranked above are actually ranked above him in my own rankings.

That was the problem. So that I had to, sometimes you need to get check. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I haven't. I had to make it change. I had to be the change I wanted to see in the ranking. Yeah. But anyway, so Ladvikki, I should note, is not currently my wide receiver four, although

the gap has been closing and it might end up there post draft, mostly just because I'm a little bit less secured in his round one capital, the other guys. But I think I'm getting there. I've been going through kind of like we mentioned pre-show, somewhat of an existential crisis with respect to wide receiver prospecting. Back in the day, we talked about this with Scott. It used to be like ADP is more or less aligned with draft capital and landings.

Yeah. And the way, you know, that we can beat draft capital and especially beat landing spot, effectively what the whole point of our dumb game in podcast is, at ADP, is, you know, for the most part, let's go sort by yards for team pass attempts.

And ideally age adjust that. And we'll have a, a discernible edge that isn't going to hit every single time, but on aggregate is going to be directionally accurate. And I don't, like, I've seen a lot of people say that like all this stuff is, you know, bunk now or it doesn't matter anymore. I don't agree with that take. I think that most of these analytical signals are actually getting better and better every year. The problem is that the market is becoming so much more aware of them. And there are so many more spreadsheet people in your leagues than there are pure film grinders in your leagues that like no longer is draft

capital and landing spot determining ADP. It's, it's your, it's all these models are all of a sudden determining ADP, right? It's like it's, it's the JJ Zapp score and Pat Corain's legendary upside model and all these things. It's, it's really shifted in the landscape. So with all that said, it's incumbent upon us to look at like, how else do we derive any sort of edge from this? We're mostly referring to 2019 here, you know, the accurate list, right? We're all, we're all back in the day of McColl Hardman and Paris Campbell. So anyway, all that being said, what I'm trying to look at now is like outside these elite guys.

It's like who in their profile analytically looking through, can I paint myself a picture of a guy who can sustain volume on NFL routes, right? So not just a bunch of big mouse routes and not just a bunch of field stretcher routes. But like who can actually gain volume consistently on intermediate, deep intermediate looks? and that basically comes down to like what's the signal in the analytical profile and what's the stylistic tendency and lad mcconkey despite never really being on the field because george is either up by a ton or he's heard or they're just rotating guys for shits and giggles they have like so many four star and five star guys they just need to get everybody on the field yeah yeah exactly yeah and

Derek's already saying in the cons his per route stuff you know vastly vastly surpasses his overall analytical profile. So if you, if you accept, if you take the leap of faith into the per route numbers, and I think there's legitimate excuses for why that's the case, you say, okay, this is a guy you can earn volume as an intermediate player, you know, as a three level score, I like to say, per route, it's guy you can be efficient on that. And then you look stylistically at like, what are the film people saying? And I'm not a film expert at wide receiver, so I'm mostly looking at other people's work. And it's, you know, it's a guy that can separate. It's a guy, you look at like Matt Harmon stuff that he's able to consistently win man and press

consensable in zone and it's like okay how can this guy align do we have routes issues well he's probably not going to be an extra but it seems as though based on his skill set he can play slot or he can play flanker and so hopefully that's a guy you can push for 90% route share based on all that like yeah I'm actually pretty excited about this player you might have my wider 4 because I don't know who else I can say that about where I can picture like 24% targets for route run in the NFL not on a is brian thomas the other guy that you're wrangling with there or who would be the other what was you here for i'm rambling with thomas my issue with thomas is we've never had 20% targets per route run his route tree is pretty defined right now in terms of like the slant digs

and the go routes and so the ceiling for that archetype like unless he just really becomes a different player feels like we're we're living in like the best case scenario it's like a t higgins uh a dk me that's a massive hit right i preferred 100th percentile outcome i guess is what i'm saying and like then you're and if you're not that you know then we're living in like mike williams devante parker territory so it's just it's just a profile that's tough for me but i i do think he's he's gonna get the draft capital i don't even know if i consider him like a super risk reward profile as much as i i think it's like he has a very clear defined nfl use case yeah and he's gonna need i think really favorable environment.

He's going to need a quarterback that's willing to throw in the cult areas. He's going to need a quarterback who's not a loser. He needs a quarterback who's willing to chuck falls down the field. And he's going to need also, I think, a really high volume passing attack because I think he's not going to be able to draw volume that high per route. So he's going to need, you know, like the T. Higgins situation where, okay, who cares if you only you're going to target on one of every five routes if there's 45 routes in a given game. So that's why I did you with Thomas.

And then the other guy that's still hanging around for me, but I don't know what to do it is worthy because the, I mean, like two years ago, me is like easily my wide receiver four, you know, pen, pen down, close the book, hand in the test because the profile is just there analytically. And I think the draft capital is going to be there too. But I have like legitimate concerns about like if all he can do is run really fast down the field and do yak stuff, like, I don't know. I've been burned on that stylistic.

That is the stylistic profile in which we've seen the most analytically inclined busts. So I'm concerned with him too. Well, there's stuff with Worthy, too, that Brett Whitefield has talked about quite a bit, how, you know, he loses focus. He can't track the ball very well for being a deep threat. Like Brett says that he's just absolutely horrendous at doing so, that he doesn't run strong through contact. His hands kind of become buttery when he gets around people, which would be very, bad for an inline slot player. So it's the slot fade production that scares me off of him.

I think I still, I think I'm leaning Ladd at four. But if you look at say Peter Shreger, NFL.com 31 to San Francisco for Ladd, and all of a sudden, I want to go into oncoming traffic. I also had that in the much less populated Jacob Sanderson mock draft on the PFF simulator. I also had that to San Francisco. That would make me sad. Charles Shanahan to me. Yeah, exactly. Like, unless we get the IUC trade, right?

That just would be very sad. Very, very, very sad for me for production. And that's my biggest issue with this whole draft class in and of itself. Like, all these guys can go to places that just make us hate ourselves, neighbors to the Chargers to deal with Harbaugh running the ball. You're dating neighbors on the Chargers? That is way too galaxy brain, dude. That's a way to do.

That's a way to dox. I've watched Greg Roman run a high school passing offense for years. You're not going to be upset about Malik neighbors. I will. Justin Herbert. I don't care about Herbert. I care about Harbaugh running the ball 650 times. Blake Corum and Gus Edwards are going to hit 300 carries this year.

I've watched Greg Roman, right? He gave me my gray hairs. I based my whole personality on watching Greg Roman. He was Patrick Ricard on Go Routes at the end of a game. You think it's going to change? No. I don't want that. I would like, I would like.

Yeah, I don't want them two years. You can get them two years later for cheaper. 400 past attempts. That works. Who do you like neighbors on the Giants or the Chargers? I'd rather want to. I like it more. I like him more on the Chargers.

Yeah. But the most mad that I've ever had people at me in like, I don't know, years of is when in a Discord. I said, I said that the Giants and the Cardinals were in the same tier of landing spot. And like I thought that I was going to be burned an effigy with people's upset. I actually think the Giants are like a pretty good or like a sneaky good landing spot. They have no competition. I think Davel's a pretty sharp schemer.

Like I think Daniel Jones sucks. But like right. I just think they're going to, I think if the Giants draft a guy and whoever that is, a Dunezay or neighbors, I just think the entire offense is to be about them. Like the entire scheme of the. offense is how do we get the ball and especially with neighbors who's so dynamic after the catch and you move them all around like i think the whole the whole offense just becomes the malik neighbors show and he gets like 180 targets in space and unique ways i think it's fun nobody survives

greg roman it's never happened it just doesn't it doesn't happen personally scarred but it doesn't everywhere he's gone nobody nobody nobody yeah he's a tight end yes he's essentially bowers chargers all day i would be so happy so happy Any wide receiver, burn him to the ground. 40 targets off him in one year and he's just, you know, he drops some footballs in Detroit. You'll get him cheaper in two years after Greg Romans run his value into the ground. It's just, it's going to happen. But I agree that I like, like, you can have terrible quarterback play and good wide receiver play.

Justin Fields, DJ Moore is a prime example. Justin Fields was absolute dog water playing quarterback last year. And DJ Moore was dope because he was awesome. that's okay i'd rather that connection than good quarterback horrendous system because we know through history that system matters more and more and more i'm sorry but miss me with the gregg roman offense like i i'm more inclined to think that the chargers are trading down more than they are taking a wide receiver that just seems against everything that they want to do i have in the in the in the in the jacob sanderson mock draft trademark patent pending uh i have

them trading down as well and i have them picking a wide receiver but i have them picking brian thomas sure i'd rather that so they don't ruin a truly elite wide receiver they they can find their new jaylin guiten later in the first round i don't care i don't want it to be neighbors in that role i'm sorry terrible awful um no thing how do you feel about how do you how do you how do you feel about neighbors in the chargers offense then horrendous yeah look i don't want to lose all of our audience just hearing look oh we already lost it Fans have gotten a break for one year, not hearing me run rampant about Greg Roman.

It's back. The Greg Roman segment is back as of next year. So everyone can look forward to that and unsubscribing. Scott's going to ask me why we're losing so many subscribers. It's just going to be a scrolling picture of Greg Roman coming across the screen. I'm going to die a goatee to just look just like him. horrendous absolutely awful but anyway enough about that enough about that let's talk about your your second round because we said that this year it's it's tough it's very how are you

parsing through the picks because like you said there's nothing to really fall back on who's your favorite second round pick who's the second round pick that you see drafted far too often too high at this point in your opinion just just some thoughts um i would say my favorite second round pick and maybe this is going to end up looking really bad but are the two top running backs for me Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson like if I if either of those guys land any pretty much anywhere in the second round even if it's 201 I'm just like that auto pick that's fine I'm I'm I'm on that because I don't as much as Troy Franklin has a strong profile analytically I not quite sure I in my heart of hearts can trust him um ad Mitchell we've talked about a bunch like just the scariest

profile even though I love what he does on tape The two, like the quarterbacks, Boenicks, Michael Penix, again, do not trust either of those guys particularly at this point. I think these guys are going in round one. I tell him, I know. Jim Nagy, they are. I bet today, I'll go against Jim here. I just put it down today, plus 145 on under four and a half quarterbacks in the first round. I think it's a load of hooey, personally.

These guys are older than me. They've been playing in college for, for some. many years. We have injury concerns with panics. We have Knicks who is in this, like, what, what really makes Nick's, like, fundamentally different from, like, Hendon Hooker or any of these other quarterbacks where it's like, they come out really old. They're in the super past happy, like, very friendly scheme. Yeah. Like, they rack up a bunch of stats. I got, I'm fine with these guys on day two. It's just, I don't know. Like, they, people, people see these guys and it's franchise starting quarterback, like, based on, based on what? I, I, I really struggle to see these guys as

round one pick. Yeah, agreed. And that's why it's scary as hell to pick either of those guys. I've seen Michael Pennix. I think Knicks is generally going a little higher than Pennix, at least in the drafts I've seen. And Pennix has fallen sometimes to the third round, because I think people are just really scared he's going to end up being like a fourth round pick, you know, and I think there's a world in which that's possible. It's probably not likely. But and then, you know, Pat, so basically past Brooks and Benson, there's a bunch of receivers that I just don't feel strongly about. I've gotten Blake Corum a bunch in the middle of my second rounds.

I think in three or four leagues now, I've gotten Corum just because he... He's not going to love this guy. He's probably going to get a good amount of volume. I think he's a good player. Maybe not like the most elite prospect in terms of his analytical profile, broken tackles and all that. But I just feel like this is a player the NFL is going to like

and give the ball to this guy. Ricky Pearson has been a guy that I've been, taking a lot just because I love to hear yeah just because you know I think people are not quite sure what to make of him and he's falling a little bit past some of these other guys I think he's got the route running chops obviously he has the athleticism I think he has a higher floor than some of the other players in this area and he again like you were talking about earlier just like his the style of receiver that he is trend tends to be I think or has a better chance of being sort of high volume versus a clear out like deep ball guy or whatever.

And so he's another guy that I've gotten a lot of. And then the other, I think, player that I'm excited about getting anywhere in the second round really is, well, two of them, Audrake Esteemay and Marshaun Lloyd. I think Lloyd is a little bit more scary, even though I think he might have a little bit higher ceiling. But because, you know, I think athletically, he's very fast, explosive, jump cuts, elusiveness, tackle breaking, you know, he's got the perfect size as a running back. He can catch the pass.

He can catch passes, but this massive, massive butt, which is apparently like every single player in the second round and later, he fumbles the hell out of the ball all the time. So I'm like, he's the polar opposite of Blake Corp. Where like coaches are going to trust this guy. I can look, I can see in a world Marshaud Lloyd just be in the dog house immediately and never getting out of it kind of deal. And so he's a little bit scary, but I think he has a higher ceiling than a guy like Estimate, who I think is another guy that is, you know, his floor is going to be early down

banger. Like, I think teams will like him because he breaks a lot of tackles. He has explosive play potential. If he can get into the passing game a little bit, kind of like a Leonard Fournette style where it's just a bunch of dump off offense. But I think he could be a pretty high, high end fantasy guy in theory if he lands in the right situation. Estimate is one of so many running backs in this class that I like so much more in like a dynasty

best ball league. Yeah. Where it's just like, like, he's the guy where it's like, I know what you do and you do that really well. And are you ever, how are you ever going to score 15 points per game in a season? Like, it's just like it's tough. It's tough to find the picture. But I like him. Like he's a, he's, there's, there's a set of running backs like him and Corum and Jalen Wright.

There's nothing like those guys stylistically. But I think the end result is kind of similar in the sense like they're all guys who are like hashtag good at football. Yeah. But I don't know how like complete. And then on the other side, you have. this other sphere of running back and Lloyd is the poster child forward. It's like, if you're good at football, you'd be really good. Are you put in football.

I'm lesser. Yeah, 100%. I just think there's more role players in this draft that need a lot of things to happen for them to be legitimate producers, at least from what I can project and what we know at this point. So I'll pivot the conversation a little bit. I alluded to this before we went on the air. You know, every year in the social, it's just like, oh, you guys drafting these mid-tier

rookies, just draft vets, hashtag score points, hashtag you can win too, you know, the win-to movement, as we'll call it. I feel more inclined this year to partake in the trading for receivers that are deemed gross, right? Because this time a year, veteran wide receivers have the plague. They have cooties. You can't have them on your roster. They'll just infect everyone with gray hairs and

age and not fun. But I mean, the Amari Cooper's, the Marquis Browns, the Calvin Ridley's, Deontay Johnson's, Keenan Allen's of the Chris Godwins of the world can be had for some of these second round picks.

I'm way more inclined if I'm a team that the natural 208 in a start 10 to go and try to get some of these 12, 14 point per game producers because I don't see it consistently at this point. So if the cost is minimal to do that, I think I'm just more inclined to do that

rather than hoping and praying on some of these guys here. I like some thoughts on that. Somebody wants to expand or tear me down. Who's the worst player? Who's the worst player I would trade the 206 for? Yeah, because the best player I've trade the 206-4 is Patrick Mons is the worst player. I love that, you sly dog. No, if I'm going with the 206, I'm happy picking up the Deontay Johnson's, right?

I'm happy picking up the David Montgomery's, Ramandre Stevenson's, Marquise Browns, if possible. Let me. Right. I'm just happy doing that. Let me play a game. I'm going to Dynasty Data Lab. Okay. Shout out Dynasty Data Lab, ADP, best ADP in the business, hands down. Danny, you throw out while I pull this up.

You throw out a pick, anywhere in the second round. Okay. And then we'll play a little, would you rather here. Okay, let's go 209. Oh. Okay. The website's being a little slower to load than I was hoping for. Sounds like a skill issue.

Here we go. Now we're good. Now we're good. Now we're good. 209. Okay. So all of these players are within one round, either side of the 209. And we're just going to go roundtable, quick, quick, quick, yes, no.

Okay. So would you rather have the 209 or Jehan Dodson? 209. I'll take 209 there. Yep. Lucas? Yep, there we go. All right.

209, I'm in agreement. 209 or Austin Echler. Probably the 209, I think. I don't know. I think that's where I starts to get close, but 209. I'm depressing. I'll go E.K. Austin Eklah posted that off.

He sees a picture. It got me all hot and bothered. Yeah, yeah. I'm going to go 209 because the hat that Austin Echler was wearing was very, like, dad mode. And it just didn't, it didn't give off swag. So I'm going to actually take the 209, as Lucas reminded me of that, that dad hat that he was wearing. Can I throw out a random one that I actually just did? please and you guys tell me if I got swindled I traded the 209 for gino smith oh gino

this is a pro gino you can i'm like the biggest i'm like the biggest geno stan probably on on twitter dot com yeah nice you can you can find my gino smith write up you know you can find my gino smith write up at fantasy points dot com in my players that are undervalued in adp and it's it's king gino he we stand gino on this podcast good to hear Okay, continue, Jacob. Okay, 209 or DeAndre Hopkins? 209. Yeah, 209.

I feel like all these, some of these veterans are worth like early thirds. This is kind of like. I think he's being very, I think he's being very specific. We are going to do. I'm taking, I'm going everyone within one round of the time. Don't, don't blame me. Blame the ADP. I'll, I'll take.

You want someone younger, though. If you want like a younger option, I mean, that's fine. I don't have to choose. That's okay. Oh, go for it. I'll take 209. All right. All right.

Here's a even interesting one. Someone that, you know, maybe one of us on the show, kind of true this guy. 209 are Dantavian Wix. Oh, see, I like Wix. I like Wix. Do I like him at 209? I like Wix.

I think he's better than Watson. Yeah, I'll take Wix. I'll take my chance at Wix. 209. Same. 2.9. I feel like you could get him for a little cheaper. I'm taking Wix.

But for the record, for the record, you know, we started this off, Tom, where you were like, oh, you know, other, oh, we need to make sure to sell these twos for these veterans, right? We're presented with two veterans. You're presented with Austin Eckler. You're presented with DeAndre Hopkins, so the two, two biggest veterans. You can also have Jacoby Myers if you want. He's in this group of veterans near the 209. And the only one we got you on was, was Don Tavian Wicks.

I will take. I will take the Mary. but at heart you're also I'll take DeMario Douglas I'll take Curtis Samuel I'll take Devin Singletary I'll take Rahim Mostert all guys that you just

happen to glaze over that are also within that that range so I was prepared To Samuel's like two rounds Yeah that's gotta be that'll come up 209 is one singular round For what I'm looking at sir On Dynasty datelad.com

So maybe I'm a couple days behind Whatever I have missed me Try to catch me like that You and your fraudulent questions, right? But we can do the same thing with like 207 and 206, right? James Connor, Aaron Jones, Derek Carr.

Yeah, well, that's where it's interesting. Yeah, like the mid-2s. I have this line. I have this line of running backs in my base two tier in my ranks where I have them all basically back to back. Henry Camara, Mixon, Jones, Pollard, Connor, Monty.

And I have, that's, I don't know, I might be missing count, but that's right around like the 205 range. And then like once I'm out of these running backs Where I can picture like 14 even if it's only for one season I can get that for one season That seems reasonable enough on a contender Once I'm past that group of running backs though

Then I'm just like screw it Like let me just take shots at all the rookies and have fun Yeah the fun factor has to apply a little bit Like everybody wants the mystery box right Yeah it could be a boat Yeah Well it's just like you want you want you want You know 14 and a half points per game

from the second round running backs or Aaron Jones in Minnesota, just take Aaron Jones. If that's what you're gunning for to like push your team to that next level, right? It's just a matter of team building. But I think, Danny, you're right. The fun factor,

I want to be a part of the draft, et cetera, et cetera, but you're allowed to win games. Like you don't have to be forever rebuilding, Lucas. Like we did something we talk about all the time. That's so fun.

It's not winning is fun, right? Like I like winning. Like when every time I get to beat Jacob in a finals, I feel really, really good and know that I get an ad read out of it. So like you want these things for your leagues. I just think it's important to note, right? That this is a year that if you wanted to just invest in veterans for your flex bots,

this could be a year to do that. And then you also get this. This pick could be the next puka from the fourth round to first round startup for 1QB. Yes. We've also talked on this show a lot about how people are just going to absolutely chase outliers like they're chasing the dragon on Main Street. Like it's not likely. The point is I think still like directionally accurate in the sense of once you're out of the realm of where like, okay, your win probability in any given dynasty is already so low. Yes.

Most of that ability to shift that win probability comes from your best couple of players. And then, you know, once you've already taken out the best players on your team and you've already scaled down to the fact that your base win probability is 8%. Like even a 15 point per game player has like such a minimal impact on your win probability in a given year. Once you go below that, like once we're into like a 13 point per game player or 12 point per game player, it's so minuscule because that points above replacement is so negligible. Yeah. Like, it's almost, almost to the point where all player becomes worth is what you can trade them for in the future. And so, like, once you're, once you've crossed the Rubicon where like, yeah, it's like your 1% chance of Pukumakua is like actually more valuable. So it's like, you know, like, and I don't know where exactly that line is.

And it's, it's close. It's like Aaron Jones to me is on the right side of the room. Chuba Hubbard, I think he's crossed the Rubicon. Like, like the Andre Hopkins, we mentioned, right? Like I'm single tier maybe yeah single term I don't know right so it's like it's not really a linear scale it's almost like worth something worse something worth something worth something and then it's like worth nothing to the point where I'd rather just take a lottery ticket than then have this person like clogging up space so like is the next pookiniqu in this trial I don't know but like I mean almost every year there is someone and usually multiple someone the third and the fourth rounds of drafts who via talent circumstance or the inefficiency of the human becomes worth a first round pick. And like you, you know, I'm not saying like I can pick who those guys are, but I can have more darts, right?

Like I just, especially this year, we're going to get so much draft capital on so many wide receivers. Like, we're probably going to be able to take wide receivers who were drafted in round two of the real life draft in round three of our rookie. I would suspect. So like any, any opportunity to trade back and just pick up a 308 or 309 and just get a free dart across your portfolio, like that, that's. It's worth something.

Yeah, yeah. You know, Puka is like the big example that everyone's going to use. And of course, there's never probably going to be another. Well, there may be. But like it's rare to see a guy like Puka who comes in and puts up ridiculous yards like he did. But I think last year in the third round, you could have gotten Rishi Rice. You could have gotten Tank Dell. You know, there's definitely guys that are like, you know, the power up mushroom type players where it's like, really, this helps your team a lot.

obviously you have to hit hit those players but i do like the idea of just kind of throwing the darts versus taking a guy who is not really going to move the needle a whole lot probably for the overall value of your team so um yeah it i know i know that there's an element of mystery box there's an element of gambling probably to it where you're probably not going to win but it's still more fun to do it um but yeah i like taking taking you know dart throws on third fourth round guys a lot. So I have Dynasty League football's rookie ADP up right now. And just looking at with 24 being the cutoff going from second and third round, you currently have Ricky Pierce also saying there, who I think will go up based off of draft capital. I think he's going to go higher than people

are anticipating. You have Malkai Corley, who there's a hive that just absolutely loves Corley. I like him. I'm not quite willing to say that he's going to be the next Devo Samuels. Some will do. Some in the hive will say that, which is wild. And then there's the two Jalins from Washington, Jalen Polk, Jalen McMillan. I think both those have an excellent shot and you're getting them deep in the third round. And then if you want to go even crazier, you have Luke McCaffrey who some people are just going to draft because they see McCaffrey, but he's a solid player. And then Jermaine Burton, who's highly efficient is JJ's breakout player or his sleeper pick that he's calling right now. And then, I mean, you have running backs all the way down into the deep fourth round two that you can be taking.

There are a lot of players, the later you go in your drafts that have the, in the range of outcomes, they can be somebody who's really contributing to your fantasy team, who's going to have a huge Delta next season on what you could flip them for in terms of rookie draft capital. And there's enough of them that I can talk myself into that I'm going to be taking. those picks way more than I'm going to be trading them off. Danny, I want your take on the Washington guys. You're the local. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So who's, I really like one of them, but I won't tell you which one. I'm guessing it's probably Jalen McMillan that you like. Yeah. I think analytically is a little bit stronger. I like them both. I would pick Polk slightly above McMillan, but I don't have any problem with people going the other

direction on it just because I know McMillan, I mean, he outproduced Polk in 2022. You know, he kind of got hurt this year and his production fell off. His playing time fell off just because of that. But I can see the arguments for both of them. I think Polk is, I mean, Peter Shrigger put out a mock today that had Polk in the first round. I think the league likes this guy. I've seen, I've seen Jim Nagy was talking about this on Twitter.

By the way, go, do you want an edge? Just go read Jim Nagy's replies to everybody. because he puts in he puts out little Easter eggs like all draft season it's great and you can you can go and listen he and scott barrett just sat down you can find that over at the fancy points youtube channel as well yeah i i try and consume all pretty much everything he does just because he's so good he has a he has the eye for the or he has an ear of the entire league like he's talking to players he's sorry he's talking to coaches he's talking to scouts he's talking to gms all year round so he has you know, a very pretty, a pretty good, I think, grasp on like where players are going to go.

And this goes back to what I was talking about earlier, where it's, you know, half the battle, I think in rookie drafts is like finding the guys that are going to be day one, day two picks. And so I saw Jim Nagy the other day say something about it was just a response. It wasn't even like anything to do with Polk, but it was basically like he, Nagy said, yeah, I was sitting next to a bunch of league guys at the combine. And they were all talking like Polk is going to go way higher than people. and I think the Twitter sphere think he's going to go. Not to say he's going to be a first round pick,

but I think there's a pretty strong chance he'll be a second round pick. If he lands in a good situation, to me he's just a very useful player. Good hands, good route runner, strong at the catch point, can pick up yards after the catch. He's a little bit like a Robert Woodsy Jacobi Myers type player.

I don't think he has a super high ceiling. But, you know, I think he's a type of player that could stick around in the league for a long time just because he has a really well-rounded skill set. I think Jalen McMillan, I've seen a couple of people. comp him to like, I'm on Ross St. Brown analytically, which is really, really interesting.

And, you know, obviously I think he's more of a slot only type guy, but if he lands in the right situation where he's going to be a high volume pass catcher, he's another guy that can get yards after the catch. He's really tough. He has a big catch radius. He's got good size. He's got a good, you know, good length, good speed. He tested, I think, better than people were expecting. So there's a lot of things like there. I've gotten a lot of Polk. I've gotten a couple McMillian in the third round. The other guy wanted to ask you guys about what your opinion is, because I think he's all over the place with a lot of people is Roman Wilson from Michigan. I think he's a tough one because I've gotten him in a few places and I still don't really know what to think about that,

like whether I should be excited or not. I think he's a guy. It's the same deal. It's like a Blake quorum situation. I think coaches are going to like him because he won't go out there and make mistakes. For Michigan, he was their touchdown score and first down score, like 75% of his catches where their touchdowns are first downs. And I don't know if he can necessarily separate at a high level, but I think he's the type of player that a coach is going to like.

So I'd love to get your guys' take on, you know, what you think of Roman Wilson, what his value is. Because I've gotten him anywhere from late second to middle of the third. I saw Lucas fist pumping. I was going to lead it to our devie guy here. Lucas will know. I mean, I really like Roman Wilson. Like you said, he is extremely efficient in that just draws your eyes to his analytical profile,

even though the volume stats aren't there. Right. He is a good route. runner. Whenever he got the opportunities, he showed out. And he's somebody who tested really, really well too, doesn't have the elite size, but has good size. I'm curious where the NFL will end up putting him. But especially with where you can get him, I absolutely love picking him up everywhere. I still prefer both the Jailens before Roman Wilson, but I really do like Roman Wilson. And I think that's also why I've been trying to target Jalen Polk and Jailen McMillan

so much is because of how awesome their ADP is. If people are going to be leaving them well into the third round, those are so easy picks. Just absolutely easy picks. And I mean, you can trade back from where you are in the second to get them. You can settle off somebody who might, somebody will probably believe in them for a third round pick. And, you know, like, it's good.

I really like the back end of this draft. There are players that it's very easy to get excited. about them because you're already going in and you've seen so many other players that are missing something from their profile, but you can still like them, just not like them at their ADP. And then you're running into very similar situations where all

of these players at the backend, they're missing something from their profile, but there are still aspects of it that you can get excited about. You can talk yourself into what their ceilings can be. And I'm going to be hammering as many of them as I possibly can't. I have not been super into Wilson and it's not

really anything against him. It's more just like, I don't know, it feels like there's so many guys that there just becomes like a cluster of guys who are my guys and then there's a cluster of guys who are not my guys. And I don't mean that as in that they're not my guys and I hate them. They're not my guys. Wilson's been like his analytical profile is fine. It's like doesn't really jump out that much to me from a lot of the other guys that are in the same group like a pierceal. It doesn't have quite the same ceiling season level as like a Xavier Legat or even a McMillan where. that third year, especially next to Dunes Day, is really popping for me.

And then, like, then I start to look, okay, well, you know, what does the film community think? And the first thing I usually do, and I'm thinking of a wide receiver, like, go over to Matt Harmon, see where he's ranking guys. And Wilson's scores are quite poor. I'm not going to spoil all the percentiles, streetball to go and read that. But I see that. I'm like, I have an analytical profile. I'm not super excited about.

I have Matt Harmon telling me he's not separating very well. I'm like, all right, I'm going to go to the next profile. and there's like 20 other profiles I can look to. So for me, like, who are the guys that are really grabbing my attention? It's Pierceall. It's McMillan. And it's Legat are probably the guys of that. Like, I don't know if I want to say third tier,

but those are probably like the guys that are that I want to make sure that I'm like 20% plus exposure to in my like late twos in early. Jake, I'm a little surprised at Liget for you. Just the way that I've like looked at you monitoring players, I don't know, Ligette just seems like the odd one out compared to most of the other profiles that you typically say are my guys. What is it about Ligette that's really getting you? I'll make the pitch for Liget. I think, I mean, his floor is nothing. But if we're trying to hit on a ceiling profile, what I like about him is of all these sort of non-traditionally, analytically strong profiles, at least he does have a season of really, really, really strong production.

So unlike guys like, you know, an Adon I Mitchell or Keon Coleman, where it's kind of like just a lot of this in the analytical profile. With Legate, it's a lot of nothing. And then it's a lot of, wow, like over three yards for a run, 24% targets for out run. Does it an interesting way where he's not just a yak threat, but a really large yak threat, which is something that it's just a profile that I'm always very interested in. When you combine after the catchability with size, now all of a sudden this is a guy, who can not just be a screen merchant,

but who you can build around on running the backside dig in these play action concepts, get a rumbling, you know? I'm not going to comp him to certain members of the 2019 draft class that I see him comp to, but you can picture him playing that type of role within the context of an offense is where I end up. So what I like about it is like you get a ceiling of production, you know, even if it comes way later than you.

And I like the fifth aspect. I saw JJ give this talking point where, you know, he was on the show a little while ago. He was talking about he has this new breakout metric where it's breakout score. And it's basically a combination of when did you break out and how much did you break out? So for a guy like Legat, where he breaks out very late, but it's a really, really epic breakout and comes in the SEC, its breakout score ends up being kind of okay. And you look at what's this combination of these old prospects that have a certain breakout score? And you get like pretty interesting guys.

You get like Cooper pops up in this mix. you get Jaden Riekeps in this mix, you get Leggett. So we'll see on him, but he's a guy like, if I'm just swinging for upside, he really interests me. And I think he's going to go around two. And so I look at him versus Coleman and Mitchell and Thomas as like these sort of four guys where there's something, well, and McConkey, be another one in this group, where it's like the draft capital projection is really strong and the analytical profile is really lacking.

and what I like with Legat and what I like with McConkey compared to some of those other guys is at least I have a sample where I can say these guys were earning a lot of targets on their routes at some point. Maybe it wasn't enough routes.

Maybe it was way too late in college. But there was a period of time in which they were earning a lot of targets on their routes. And so that's like my one little analytical hat stand that I can hang my coat on and feel okay when I go sleep at night. See, and Wilson for me is a lot like Khalil Shakir. Right.

I think he's just going to be a guy same size. Athletic is relatively similar where he could end up going to a spot. And like you said, coaches are going to love him, right? He was a winner, real lunch pale guy. Like you said, produced right, when he got opportunities, big touchdown guy this year. His quarterback is going to go, right? Round one, probably a lot higher than people think he deserves to go. And landing spot like everyone else, look, you said he's going to be a,

there are players that are slot primary. That's not a bad thing in fantasy anymore, right? The shift between how we look at slot wide receivers has completely shifted. Well, we almost kind of want these guys in PPR formats, right? That can give you eight catches for 55 and one because it's just that's big points. That's Chris Godwin level production. And we like that. So I think he's somebody that profiles in that Khalil Shakir where the fantasy community

is going to really love him and want to wait. a couple years, even if it may never happen. Although Shakir this year, might have a shot to do what we all want him to. But a coach's guy, right, right situation in a role that's trustworthy, right? We could get a Curtis Samuel Shakir level out of him. And I could see that jumping his rookie ADP from that mid to late third round really creep into that second round.

So I like him, but I'm hesitant. He's not a guy I want to draft before. or the NFL draft. Right. Right. He's one of those potential, you know, landmine on. Derek said the rise of 11 personnel in too high has made slot only not matter. Well, I think I still think that it, I think slot only matters.

Like if you can't surpass, well, matters a lot if you're doing, especially for doing pre-roquie draft stuff. Because now we're talking about certain landing spots in which it's a lot better than other landing spots. Right. I still think slot only matters. I think that slot primary is great. Like the Ladd-McConkie Ricky Pearsall archetype of wide receiver is like my favorite archetype of wide receiver where they're going to play slot probably 65% of the time and they're going to play flanker in two wide receiver sets.

I'm all about it. That just means we're getting like all of the high target per route run route opportunities and we're still getting a really high percentage of route. Yeah. That pumps me up. I'm less excited if I think someone's slot only. I don't have enough of a refined Roman Wilson on take to like say whether I think he's slot only.

But that is, that would be like my, that's the big appeal to me of a lad or a pierceol is you're running a way easier diet of, I don't know if I should say, you're running a diet of routes in which it is typically easier to earn targets for fantasy purposes than like a Brian Thomas or an Adne Mitchell what they're dealing with. But you're also probably going to stay on the feet two-eyed receiver sets. And that, that to me, is the jackpot. Right. I think worry about that in the higher up picks and a rookie draft, worry less about that when you get to the end. You end up with the JSN who right is running primary slot type stuff and gets taken off the field because he's got other receivers.

You're really sad about that. You're a sad panda if you end up with that result and you drafted them at like 106. You're a very sad panda. But third round and you're kind of hoping for some other stuff to progress. I feel really okay with that. So I think the shift, so you get Derek saying that it, you know, has made it not matter. And you're saying primary kind of doesn't matter, et cetera. I feel like that changes based on the on the price in which you're drafting and how much you're concerned about it.

It's kind of how I look at it, if that makes sense. This has been phenomenal. We're going to take our last quick break. And before we can get Danny out and about for the rest of his evening and everyone else watching, shout out. If you haven't already, hit that subscribe button. of course you want to go and do that to catch everything else that we're doing also you're going to want to head in to the fantasy points discord we have dynasty exclusive content releasing more and more i promised that the dynasty product at fantasy points dot com is going to get a boost it is happening this off season we are delivering you're going to want to be there you're not going to want to miss it so another our last break i promise and we are going to get some final thoughts some favorite lepers, et cetera, from everyone here before we lit into next week where we have the guru on himself. As I mentioned, everyone loves like they're good. Look, I want to take this player every time in the

second round. However, there are players that we don't ever want to draft. And I feel like we've been very kind to this draft class. I'm what is, might be known as a hater. So I want to know players that you don't want to touch with a 10 foot pole and what your threshold is for because everyone is a buy

to a price. Lucas and I went at this a lot. Coleman, not a guy in the upper second round, not with a 50 foot pole. Is there someone that just has completely turned you off through this process?

Don't want to go near them. And what is that price for you that you don't want to go near? Great question. I think Coleman is a guy that I've been kind of scared off of. I mean, he's, he just up right. I've seen him falling towards the end of the second round, even in, like, maybe if he, if he falls into the early, early part of the third round, I'll definitely take him there kind of deal. But it's scary to take him early on in the second. I would say the same thing for Jetavian Sanders. At cost right now, for me, I just didn't really see it with him. I could end up being totally wrong. maybe he'll land in a system where the quarterback loves toward to a tight end and he'll he'll be really productive but i didn't

particularly see a guy that like separates or runs after the catch very well he's just kind of a guy i don't really understand the hype around him i like a couple of the other tight ends more um so he's not a guy i'm i'm looking to to draft in the second or really third round if he's in their fourth round maybe but um i say those are the two guys that really stand out to me i don't know what to do with braylin Allen so I've just been staying away. I just don't know what to make of him. I think there's definitely flashes, but there's also a chance he just ends up being like a day three guy that never does anything. So I don't know.

He's another guy that I've just been kind of gun shy about, not taking. Those are the main ones that come to mind. What about you guys? I mean, you hit two of them for me. I've already talked a lot about my dislike of Braille and Allen. I'm not going to do that one again. fourth show in a row. Okay, I'll give, I'm torn on this.

Hot take. In reality, I could end up, in reality, I could end up taking anybody. But, well, okay, so I've seen this whole draft scene by saying that like it's getting hard for me to be out on anyone who has bad analytics because, like, because everyone else is going to be out on them. So I'm probably more inclined to take them. So like, Adnay Mitchell's probably the guy I'm lowest on, but I could see a scenario where like he doesn't get a great landing spot and then people aren't as excited and I'm still like

oh all right well he has great film I'll take him so I'm gonna pick someone who is good analyst um I think the guy that I'm I'm not gonna take because someone in my draft will always be willing to take him uh as they as they pull up their yards per outrun chart and that would be Troy Franklin for me okay he he fits the he he just hits all the marks of the strong analytical profiles I least trust which is he put up a lot of numbers and kind of a gimmicky system with a lot of positive, you know, supporting cast terms of his coaching staff in terms of Bo Nix, who, you know, I just kind of mocked Bo Nix around one quarterback, but you could sure do a hell of a lot worse than Bo Nix as a college quarterback. And then the major issue with

Franklin is, I don't think he wins in a huge variety of ways. His profile is mostly coming from intermediate and deep completion. And he's this really weird prospect in that he basically played X wide receiver in college, stapled to the line of scrimmage at 6-2 and, I don't know, 130 pounds. approximately. So he's not going to be doing that in the NFL. So he's going to have to learn an entirely new position in the NFL because I'm sorry, Troy, but 62173, you are not playing X, Y receiver in the NFL. So he's going to have to probably be taking an off-line scrimmage. And then my question is like, okay, how great of a deep separator is he? Because we've seen this now with a couple of these other skinnier college players who won deep with Hyatt with Diami

Brown, where then they go in test. And it's like you're not actually that much of a burner. like you're fast. You run a 4-4. You're one of the fast humans on Earth. But in terms of NFL burner speed, you're not James and Williams, right? You're not Henry Ruggs. You're not Xavier Worthy.

So I think a ton of his profiles dependent on deep separation as a 4-4-10-yard split, which is like actually slow. That's for the record, Troy Franklin's 10-yard split, slower than David Bell's. I think David Bell's still running is 40. So it's, so in terms of a guy who's slow out of the break and is really skinny.

He's going to have to move off the line of sports, learn a new position, and then win in a way that's pretty narrow. I have a lot of concerns. And I think there'll be people in the draft that are more willing to just go with the production in a way that I don't know that they'll be able to wrestle. Yeah, that scares me. Because I agree. I see all that too.

And it's like, oh, I did take him in a draft. And I'm like, kind of regretting it a little bit. I don't know. Hopefully he lands in a good spot. But I don't know what to do with him. He could still totally hit. But Tom made me pick someone. Yeah.

No, I hear you. But Jacob, Devontas Smith, tank down. There's small. Oh, there's that voice. I've never heard of the TV's a boy for. That was a cool trick. Is that like a effect or did you just do that? Oh, I can't give away trade secrets.

But to your point on these small guys and how they play. Can you just do that? Yeah. Baby, we're in, we're in 2024. We can do whatever we want to. No, the voice of public opinion will tell you that to ignore size concerns playing outside. with these outliers that are hitting. It's the point, right?

So in the voice of public opinion, you're going to be wrong. But realistically, I agree with everything you're saying. So I think it's important. Helium mode. Fantastic. No,

and I know we're just hurting Lucas's feelings, right? With Franklin and Coleman and all these guys. I know the Devi guys get really hurt when we start doing this. For me, it's Pearsall. It's personal. No thank you. from me. He's not it for me. He's and I and I say it in the term like kind of how you did where someone else is going to like him way more than me, right? Like someone else is going to love him to a point

where I'm going to be okay to pass, especially if he gets the nut spot in their opinion. So he's just somebody I'm going to avoid because I think their cost is not going to reflect what their actual value is going to be. I'm okay passing and missing potentially. And every time we mention another player. I know Lucas is just throwing up a little bit. He wants to quit the show. So you've rolled your eyes. He's a lover. He does. Well, he is. He's a Devy guy too. And they just have a hard time letting go and understanding Jerry Judy. So I'm not going to break your heart anymore, but I'm going to give you an opportunity to try to speak unkindly about the player you don't want to have. All right. The person who scares me the most right now, it's not that completely

the volume just they scare me the most that's brian thomas junior that's the person who scares me his archetype i think is extremely high risk i do think i think earlier in the year i said that he may never have a uh season that's above wide receiver 36 but he'll still win you like three weeks throughout the season just with what he'll do i'm going off for that a little bit i think that some point in time in his career he will have the season above wide receiver 36 but i don't know especially at 109, after coming off the first eight picks, which seem extremely solid at this point, at least in terms of maintaining value through year one, it's just such a letdown to be sitting there. And I think part of its expectations, part of its archetype, and part of it's just that there's so many other wide receivers after him who have lower ADPs that I like just as much, if not more, at certain times.

And so I'm just really staying away from him. If he were coming off the board, this wide receiver seven or eight, I'd probably like him a whole awful lot more. And I'd feel more comfortable about taking on that risk. But with where he is, it just, it's turned me off. It scared me. Yeah, him being drafted, I mean, we're looking at ADP with rookies included. He's being drafted right with like James Cook, Travis Kelsey, Kirk Cousins. I'm just, I'm just totally okay missing that and taking that.

That's a classic, I'll take the veteran production type play. completely, completely agree with you. Look, we've gone an hour and 15. We've had a bunch of comments. We've had the voice of public opinion. We've played some games. We've got our hot takes. I think we've hit this. Look, we get to a point. And Danny, again, thank you so much for joining us. We get to a point in this process where I think everything's been said. I feel like, for the most part, we've now picked this apart from top to bottom between whether it's articles, 672,421 podcasts, tweets, 500 different metrics and you name it. But do you have any final thoughts that you could share with us on this program before we get out of here about this class,

maybe whether it's the process or how you've gotten to where you've been? Uh, no, I got nothing. That's it. That's it. I don't think I could add anything else. I think we've covered everything. Give me, this is a real life stereo that I'm staring down right now. What do you guys think of Tyrone Tracy?

Is that just a pipe dream or are you guys into it? Oh, both. When Jacob lights up like that, you can either get a two minute explanation or we're going to go here for another 20. So we're going to have a pipe dream and I'm into it. Yeah, yeah. This is a fourth round pick. I'm just trying to decide whether I should do this or not.

I just got up on the clock as we speak. Oh, live draft pick here on Dotsie Poo? Unticed, yeah. Do you like him more than say... No, we lost Jacob again. Do you like him more than say like a Javon Baker? I like Baker more personally, but that's because Derek Brown is swerving me on Baker every time he tweets about him more and more.

I mean, Baker is, like, I think Baker's better in like 90% of Cedar. scenarios because in 90% of scenarios, Tyrone Tracy plays like zero NFL downs. Right, right. In the 10% of scenarios, Tyrone Tracy is like legitimate starting fantasy player and Javon Baker is like living in the Alexir's extended universe. Right.

Right. Right. He's going to get a target. So I don't know. I can see it going either way. Yeah. At a certain point, it's like,

what are we doing down the wide receiver list? But yeah. Baker's probably like the right pick, but. It gives me like Brian Edwards like hope, right? Like everyone just wants Brian Edwards to have been a thing. Like it gives me that kind of hope. I mean, I used to, I used to be like if this was me even one year, I would have been like Tracy because like I've always been pretty uninterested in like bad wide receiver prospects just because the barrier to fantasy value is so high the position.

Whereas running max can just fall ass backward into fantasy points on occasion. Right. I don't know. Call it PTSD. but like watching Pooka Nakua and Rishi Rice and Tang Del and like this like cadre of mediocre production profiles just take over the NFL last year is like made me a lot more sketched out on just missing the potential untapped ceiling of Javon Baker. Damn it.

So that didn't help but me at all. I'm going to have to think a lot harder after this. All right. Oh, I love that. Lucas, do you have any final thoughts here? No, the last segment made me sad. So I'm ready to. All right, we've zapped the energy out of the always,

um, glowing and bright Lucas here. Jacob, final thoughts? What do you have for thinking about thinking? Yeah, um, I was in Montreal last weekend, so I didn't write, but I did a little bit on the planes.

And, uh, I will certainly have a big piece up at the end of this weekend, um, going through. I did basically the first round of rookie drafts. Uh, and I'll go through the second round of Ricky drafts and my thoughts on everybody similar to the first piece that I did a couple weeks ago.

By the end of this weekend, so I'm excited to have that up for people. Love that. Man of the People, even when you're on holidays, you're just continuously working around the clock. You were, you are, as people say, built different. I was working very little. I was eating a lot of smoke meat. I was trying to give you the ball. Con concert. It was incredible.

It changed my life. I love that for you. Love that for you. Of course, everything at Fantasy Points. Look, we had them on last week. I poked. I prodded for the entire off season. yards created finally makes its triumphant return.

Graham Barfield, once again, doing the Lord's work, doing all the work that, you know, nobody else can just quite do at that level, giving you the information you need for these running backs, bad class or not. That drops tomorrow. So you're going to want to be at fancypoints.com. You're going to want to sign up. You're going to get that. Nobody does a piece like this.

It is truly unique. So you're going to want to do that. Of course, best ball breakdown returns this week. Fantasy points, getting back into the best ball. streets, not going to want to miss that either. Again, the Discord, the place to be. I know we had some questions in here. Look, sometimes we just can't get to them,

but you know what you can do? You can get into the Discord in the Dynasty channel. Ask Away. We will be there for you all the time. Doesn't matter what time, I'll be there. I have no life. This is just what I do now. So, of course, you're going to want to do that.

Remember to hit like, subscribe, leave a comment. Tell us what kind of shirt you're wearing. It doesn't matter what you say. Just let us know that you are here. helps us with the algorithm, helps us do more shows like this for you. We love and appreciate you. Appreciate all of you. Remember that clear hours and full hearts can never lose in your best days.

They're always spent tilting. Good night, everybody.