Fantasy Football Daily - Sloppy Divisional Wagers + Trey's Straight and Narrow Picks | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: January 16, 2025

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's the divisional round on the Best Betts podcast here at Fantasy Points. Figure out which of Dolan's teasers you should fade this week. And we'll talk to good friend Trey a little bit later on in the show. It's now gotten to the point with the Dolan teasers that I just get, I got a bad number and lost my teaser by a half a point because I had the Buccaneers teased to plus two and a half. I at least would have pushed that leg of the teaser. I read the Bill's game completely right last week. But I went in with my mantra. I'm betting against the rookie quarterbacks.

I guess Jaden Daniels is just not your typical rookie. And he was excellent last week. And now everybody's anointing him the next great one. And he might well be. He's got an opportunity to show that this week. Tom Broly, Joe Dolan here. What's going on, T-Bro, Divisional Round? How did we make out last week on the bett to bet.

Jane Daniels did play for like eight years in college, if that makes you feel like he's like 26. Although Bo Nicks played even longer than than Jane Daniels. So you think the rookie stuff would be. But no, I pretty well overall. Actually had a winning weekend with the ATS picks. Hallelujah. It's been it feels like six six weeks for that two and one overall there. And player props are staying hot here. Five and three overall. cooled off a little bit on Monday in that dog dirt game that it turned out to be either Pooka Nakua over and just was a whole lot of reason for offense for the Rams in the second half of that game.

But overall, pretty good here. So good vibes going into the divisional round. I wish I could say the same about our Nittany Lions in my Pittsburgh Steelers after the weekend. But hey, that's football. Now I can watch as an impartial viewer for the rest of the playoffs. Well, I will not be an impartial viewer the rest of the way.

My stupid team plays on Sunday. I'm actually weirdly confident about them, but we'll get to that game. Let's start, though, on Saturday with a game where I have the least betting interest in. I don't know about you, but I have the least betting interest in this game. The Houston Texans, I swear to God, if this team advances to the Super Bowl, they're going to have to move the Super Bowl to Saturday at 4.30 p.m. Eastern. that it is physically impossible for this team to play a playoff game at another time. Well, they travel to Arrowhead.

So even the defending champs don't escape the vortex of the Houston Texans 4.30 p.m. Eastern window. And the Texans coming off that drubbing of the L.A. Chargers, which has sparked all kinds of Justin Herbert discourse. We have the Chiefs laying eight and a half at home, Tom, against the Texans. We have a 41.5 point total, which is the lowest of the. entire weekend slate. I don't have a bet on the side or the total here. I haven't even dabbled into the prop market in this game. I don't know if I have a great read here. Kansas City seems to be obviously getting healthier at the right time, but they have been a money

loser for me in a huge way this year. And I'm not sure that was anything more than a one-week aberration with the Texans having some really wild plays that kind of went their way against the Chargers. Nonetheless, the defense was exceptional against Justin Herbert. Can they repeat it against Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, the defense kept them in that game until, you know, they made a big play on that third and whatever, third and long deep in their own zone late in the first half there, kind of a fluke play and kind of got the offense going after that. And they rode the momentum the rest of the way and picked off Herbert four times in that game. And yeah, I was on the charger side in that one. I've been trying to fade these Texans. And I keep picking the wrong spots here.

I would look towards fading them again here. Chiefs are coming off a buy. They got to rest in week 18 as well. Of course, we had Patrick Mahomes dealing with that ankle injury prior to that and successfully played through it. So he should be back to 100% for this game. Yeah, I'm leaning towards the chief side on this one. But it is bumped up here.

They're in that teaser protection range a little bit here, in that eight and a half to nine point range. So I probably won't get involved in this one, but I'll kind of see how the injury report kind of plays out here. Of course, the Texans keep losing receivers here. Deonté Johnson, I don't know if we can even count them, but they released him this week. Cade Stover, another piece of their offense.

So they're dropping like flies still for the Houston Texans. But I also, you know, my first prop for this game, if we want to just jump into those, I have DeAndre Hopkins over his receiving yards. This number is a revenge game. It is a revenge game. And it is a tough match. No doubt.

Derek Stingley's playing well. Lasseter as well. But his number is at 28.5 yards here middle of the week. He's been able to hit this number in most of his games that he's played since he's joined the chiefs here. He's hit 10 of his 11 games with the chiefs. I'm also thinking, is he going to see a little uptick in playing time here in the postseason? He had a threshold with the trade that they had. I think it was over 60% or more of the snaps.

Fifth round pick becomes a fourth round pick. Obviously, they sat him out for week 18. They've been kind of use them as a part-time player. So I'm thinking maybe he'll have more of a full-time role here. we're going to see more Marquise Brown, more Xavier worthy. So we haven't projected for around 37 yards in this matchup. Houston, for as tough of the matchup is, they're still giving up the 15th most receiving yards per game to outside receivers.

So I'm looking at DeAndre Hopkins, a lot of positive talk about him coming out of the Chiefs camp. So looking for him for a big game here in the postseason. You know, I was actually looking at the playoffs are time for just abscessing. slot props like guys who might have a couple of them on my list you know i do i have one as well um i was actually looking at noa gray here at like 10 and a half yards here's the issue though he hasn't gone over that in two consecutive games and i was thinking along your lines not necessarily because of the incentive of the chiefs to not play hopkins because of the draft pick but also what if my narrative

from all seasons been kind of right um Travis kelsey unleash him in the playoffs you know like what What else is there for the chiefs to do but win three straight Super Bowls? Travis Kelsey's probably going to retire after this year and go be a homemaker, you know? Like so professional podcaster with his brother. Right, exactly. So I was like, I'm not going to touch Noah Gray just in case like all of a sudden we see old Kelsey out there. Old Kelsey as in like the Kelsey of the past, not old as in aged Travis Kelsey. Unfortunately for Travis Kelsey.

The good age. Yeah, yeah. I mean, he's he's got himself a little dad bod going there. and hey, but maybe he's unleashed here. So I didn't bet anything in this game time. I don't know if I'll get something closer to game time. Maybe I'll hit like a prize picks or something. I got a little slop if we want to get it into a little slop here.

Somaget P. Ryan over eight and a half receiving yards. There you go, Joe. He's hit this number in a, he's gotten to 11 yards. So if this line does tick up one or two yards, he's hit 11 yards in seven straight games. and in 14 of 17 games overall. So this is an extremely low number. But if we, you know, this backfield has been a pain in the butt with Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. But Samajai P. Run is kind of locked into his third down, hurry up back in the four-minute offense kind of rule.

And we know that Patrick Mahomes is good at extending plays. And P. Rine is the guy in those situations. And they'll even, I was looking through our fantasy points data suite. I think he has eight or nine design targets, you know, most likely on screen type of play. So he's been involved in the screen game as well. So yeah, looking at Samajai Piron here, over eight and a half yards. Not much, not much wiggle room here. We haven't projected for about 12 yards.

But ever since Pacheco came back, the numbers are pretty dang good. Eight catches for 124 yards. So the fact that Pacheco's back hasn't affected him. And if we go back to week 16 against the Texans, he had three catches for 50 yards in that game. So we're looking at Samaj-P-Rine over eight and a half receiving yards on Saturday afternoon. All right. We're going to get to the rest of the Saturday and Sunday slate, Tom, including the Dolan teaser. First, we're going to pay a few bills and then we'll be back.

At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans. We've mastered made to measure growth and expansion. advice, and we can talk your ear off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do, business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us, and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business.

All right, Tom, the Saturday slate wraps up with a real hoot nanny on Saturday night with the upstart Washington commanders against the Detroit Lions. Now, I think there's a lot of respect for Jade and Daniels, obviously, in this total line. It's 55 and a half, which I think might be the highest I've seen in any game this year. I'm thinking back, but it's pretty damn close to the highest. Yeah, the lions, the lions, I think the lions, the last game they played against the Vikings was 57. half. I think I did see that this is the highest implied total for a team. The Lions here, I think it's 32.5 doing the math, quick math in my head here. Highest implied total for a team in any game this

season. So, yeah, they expect the Lions to score, but they also expect Washington to kind of push back on that, you know, score a little bit. And what I'm also seeing here, Tom, A number one, the, the expectation that the Lions are going to dominate in the trenches, which is, is, I think, a reasonable expectation. I would think that's Washington's weakness as a team. But also maybe just kind of taking a step back and saying, all right, what we thought was that really impressive defensive performance from the Lions against the Vikings in week 18. Maybe not so much after Sam Darnold shit his pants right there on live television against the LA Rams on Monday night. So a really high total game. I did not hit any props in this because I'm scared to death of

high numbers. Complicating matters further, David Montgomery's back. And, you know, like on the surface, and I would agree with this. You know, earlier in the season, I said, David Montgomery is the heartbeat of that offense and that's not a player they want to lose. And then all of a sudden, they do lose David Montgomery. They look pretty good. And Jemir Gibbs goes 23 for 109 and a score, 4 for 45 through the air. 18 for 117 and a score, 4 for 46 through the air. 23 for 139 and 3 on the ground, five for 31 and a score through the air. So it are fewer snaps for Jamir Gibbs actually a good thing for this lion's offense. I'm not quite sure at this point. I'm not in the prop market here, Tom. I want to hear your read on this, but I did tease the commanders. I tease the commanders up to 15 points.

I put them in a teaser. I'll tell you the second leg of that teaser because it's the next game. But I just feel like I don't expect the commanders to win this game. But the Jaden Daniels, that I saw vis-a-vis this Lions defense that maybe wasn't as impressive as it looked in week 18. I think they should be able to keep this within two touchdowns. Yeah, Joe, I was having a tough time with the props in this game as well. I don't have anything at this point. They're so high, man. They're so high.

Yeah, just because that, as you said, the high total in this game. I wanted to, one, I was kind of eyeing up here, Jaden Daniels. We know how much he scrambles. I ran a lot in that game against the Buccaneers. and we look kind of historically here at the Lions the last couple of years. They struggle against mobile mobile quarterbacks. Play a lot of man coverage as well. But the prop, oh, it's set.

The books are well aware of this. He's been kind of set in that 46.5 to 48 and a half yard range. They bumped him up to about 54.5 is what I'm seeing at most books right now. So basically another carry or two onto that total, which has me a little scared away from that number. I can't quite get there. It's just a little bit too much for me to bet that. And as you said here, I'm kind of waiting on this.

I'm hoping for maybe a little more reporting on the Gibbs Montgomery split. I'm trying to determine if Montgomery is going to come back into his full-time regular role. Or as you said, Gibbs was excellent the last couple of weeks without him. Maybe it's more of a 60-40 split or even a 60-40 split or even a 60- 3535 split with Montgomery. Still trying to determine that. So the books are a little bit more shaded towards Gibbs on the prop market. Montgomery stuff is knocked down a little bit from where we were seeing earlier in the season.

And I mean, a lot of this could depend on just how well David Montgomery performs and he looks on that bad knee. This was an injury that people were saying he's going to be out the rest of the season. He was getting all these different opinions on it to see if he would be able to play again. and now he's back and what that was about five weeks ago for that initial injury. So, I mean, I'm a little bit skeptical that he's going to be back to 100%. But hopefully we get a little bit more reporting on this situation before the game kicks off on Saturday night. Receiving props wise, nothing is really standing out to me. I did think a little bit about Diami Brown for the commanders.

He has some good numbers against man to man, but, you know, it could be a little bit of a smaller sample there because of just how little he is actually played. But just, you know, he obviously had his breakout game last week, but he's been trending upward for four or five weeks. Alameday Zakias was getting most of the headlines, but Diami Brown's been a little bit more active here in the last five or six weeks since Noah Brown went down.

So that was one guy I was kind of looking at, but yeah on the on the line side nothing really standing out there i do think tray has a little something for us so you know stick around for the end of the podcast if you're looking to get something on this lions and commanders game tray tray has a little bet for you all right so uh yeah i'm not i'm not in on this game right now outside of the teaser t bro but oh i want to point out to people that you add bets throughout the week and your best bets article goes up at fantasy points com and you can get in at fantasy points.com for our early bird special. That is now through Super Bowl Sunday. You get 20% off. No strings attached. You don't need to use a code. It is just naturally 20% off.

It is the lowest price you'll get for the entire 2025 season. And you get all of 24, or the remainder of 2024, at least, for just kind of as a throw in and no strings attached. That's what you get. Subscribe to NFL premium or all in to get Tom Burley's best bets. Team, bro, the early afternoon Sunday game is in Philadelphia. We are looking at potential snow in Philadelphia here. So we have seen this total dip. We have the Eagles laying six at home, 43 and a half being the total against the L.A. Rams who were coming off an ass-wipping of the Minnesota Vikings.

These two teams met earlier in the season, and the Eagles ran away with the game, literally and figuratively, Tom, with Sequin Barclay posting nearly 300, over 300 yards from scrimmage in that game. He could have housed a long run, and I know a lot of his prop betters were sick of it against Green Bay last week. Nonetheless, we have the Eagles laying six. Tom, I will tell you, this is the other leg of my six-point teaser. I have the commanders tease to 15, and I have the Eagles essentially to the money line here. I think the Eagles are going to beat the Rams.

Their defense is just playing at a super high level right now. Cooper Cup seems to have disappeared from this offense. I know Tyler Higby is dinged up. He says he's going to play, but he was spitting up blood at the hospital. And I feel like this is the kind of defense. The Eagles don't need to blitz a whole lot. And Stafford kills the blitz, but they don't need to blitz a whole lot. I think the Eagles match up pretty well with the Rams.

They ran all over them in L.A. earlier the season. If it snows all the better. You know, Tom Brady always says he loves playing off. in the snow because you know where you're supposed to go and the defense doesn't know where you're supposed to go. So the defense is playing a reaction. I would think it will possibly move closer to even maybe closer to a full touchdown, the full seven, if the snow becomes a bigger factor here. But I am laying the, I am picking the Eagles money line here. I have a prop in this game that I want to talk about later. But what's your read on the Eagles and the Rams? Yeah, this is the one ATS game

I'm also on so far this weekend. I'm on the Eagles as well. Got it at five and a half. But I would bet it now here. As you said, there is, it just seems like there's more pressure to the six and a half here. So if you want to stay at that key number,

get it at six here. I wouldn't wait around. I do think some six and a halfs will start popping up here. As a matter of fact, there is one at Fandle. So I do think it might move towards that seven. I don't know if it's going to get to seven. You'll see buyback at seven from the Sharf.

because of Matthew Stafford and Pooka Naku. Yeah, I think if anything, it probably settles in the six to six and a half point range. But I'm with you. You laid out a lot of the reasons why I like the Eagles as well. Dominated this matchup a couple of weeks ago. Well, not a couple of weeks ago. I was back in week 12 at this point. And they dominated the matchup last year as well.

These teams are pretty similar. I don't like to look too far back into the past. but these two teams are pretty similar to what they were last year. Obviously, the defensive line for the Rams is a little different now. So they've beaten up on them by multiple scores in each the last two years. And the spot, that's what's the tough part for me here, which is why I think this line has moved to six, six and a half as well. Rams, we know everything that's going on out in Southern California right now.

just they're just wondering if they can practice, if they can practice outdoors. But that game got moved from Los Angeles to Arizona. So they had to have a short flight back on Monday night after winning late. Now you have to fly out to the East Coast for a short week game. And it's six days. So they don't have a lot of time to get ready and necessarily prep for this game. And it's going to be completely different conditions.

As you said, Joe, it's going to be close to freezing, potential for some rain or snow in that game. So the circumstances, I think that's probably why this line has been driven from that five and a half point range up to the six, six and a half point range. So if you like the Eagles, if you want to back them like Joe and I, I would get this at six if you can. Try to get it before it gets to six and a half. Tom, I do have a prop in this game now. I want to throw this out there. We're recording this on Wednesday afternoon. And the Eagles are practicing as we speak. Now, the Eagles beatwriters are saying AJ Brown is not at practice, but also Saquan Barkley and several offensive linemen are resting at practice.

And as we saw last week, AJ Brown barely practiced, wasn't even on the injury report, but we saw maybe he was a step too slow. Like, uh, you know, Jalen hurts on that fake tush push. He had AJ Brown open.

Hard to say, was it an accurate throw, an inaccurate throw? Was it affected by the wind as Tom Brady, uh, might have suggested? or was AJ Brown a step slow as he's dealing with that kind of nagging knee injury. Then, of course, we saw him reading the book on the sidelines.

That guy's now a gazillionaire. The inner excellence author is thanking the lucky heavens. AJ Brown was reading that book. But the last time we saw this, the squeaky wheel did get greased. I'm going back to the well. Now, I'm not hitting an AJ Brown total, but I am betting him to catch a pass on the Eagles opening drive. He is minus 20 to catch a pass on the Eagles opening drive. And I wouldn't be shocked if they were on a quick slant on the first play of the game.

I love that. I do love that. That's one I might tail after the program here. Try to find the best number on that one. I do like Dallas Goddard. That's one prop I've hit. I hit that last week and kind of going back to it here. I think he's playing well here since he's come back from his injury.

And as you said, AJ Brown, they could certainly feed him early on that drive. But something's not quite right with him here. here with this knee injury. Maybe he's not full go for the entire game. They have to spread the ball around a little bit. And the numbers are lining up pretty good here. He's hit. I gave it out at 34.5. I think there might even be a 33 and a half out there, depending on where you're looking. But he's hit this number in seven of his 10 games. And Los Angeles plays a lot of cover three, 33% of the time, 10th highest rate. And Goddard has been a cover three beater here for the for the Eagles. Averaging 3.16 yards per route run with a 31% target share on his routes against cover three.

So we think of DeVantza Smith and A.J. Brown just getting peppered with targets against all coverages. But this is one, and we saw against the Packers as well. They play a lot of cover three and cover four. And Goddard was active last week, had the big game. And then if we look at the matchup here, Hawkinson goes off last week, has the 64 yards. one of the few bright spots for that passing game. And the Rams for the season gave up the fourth most receiving yards per game, two tight ends at 64.8.

So he was quiet in this matchup earlier this season. I think I was actually on Dallas Goddard against the Rams in week 12 as well. And that was a game that DeVantz Smith ended up missing. He did get targets. He just only turned him into 19 yards on four catches. So I'm going to guess maybe those. Those catches and targets go a little farther this time. So I'll take Dallas Goddard over 34 and a half receiving yards.

Let's move to the Couta Gras, T-Bro, the best game of the weekend, a game everybody's looking forward to. People have already called it the game of the year and it hasn't happened yet. It is Baltimore traveling to the great white north to take on the Buffalo Bills. We have the Ravens laying 1.5, 50 and 1.5 being the total, Tom. the this is the super bowl window the sunday 630 kind of window i'm excited because i don't have to stay up till midnight watching a football game to then get to talk about it on serious x-n fantasy football morning and i see if you're excited about it 630 though depending on what your eagles do earlier that

afternoon maybe i won't even watch it if well now now or maybe you'll be ecstatic and you'll want to see potentially who you're going to play in the super bowl so uh you know it could go one of two ways there. I made a mistake in one and done, Tom. I should have played Derek Henry last week because I made many mistakes. So, so dumb. I don't know. Like, oh, you got to save these players. Yeah, but the Ravens are 10 point favorites and Derek Henry when their 10 point favorites is going to go off. And they should have it anyway. That's that's for another day. We'll break down our one and done strategy up at fantasy points.com in an article later this week. Tom, I do not have a bet on the side or on the total in this game, but I have some disgusting props for this one. And

I'm wondering where your lean is right here. I pick the bills to go to the Super Bowl before the playoffs. There's no reason for me to change that right now, but I'm not confident enough to take the point in a half here. Yeah, I'm on the opposite side. I have the Ravens going to the Super Bowl and our staff picks. And I miss my window. Ravens were briefly underdogs earlier this week.

And now it's kind of flipped here. They're laying one and a half at most places. Maybe we'll see action later in the week. but I think the Ravens bandwagon is a little more full at this point. So I'm probably going to stay away from this game. It truly does feel like one of those toss-up games. And we've seen Lamar struggle in the past in the postseason here. But I do think the Ravens are the better team on paper right now.

But I'm not doubting Josh Allen in this one. So I'm going to probably sit on the sidelines on this one. But my slight lean is here. towards the Ravens. All right, Tom, let's get. I actually think we have a mutual god-awful prop here. I was just looking at our projections vis-a-vis the numbers out there. And Curtis Samuel is lined at 11 and a half receiving yards. And I'm starting to wonder if he's kind of emerged as a, not a go-to guy for Josh Allen, but somebody over the last two weeks, oh, he can make some place for us. He had seven catches two weeks ago. He had three catches. Um, uh, uh, he had three catches. Um, uh,

in the playoff win against Denver, including the long 55-yard touchdown, but even eliminating that touchdown, he would have gone over this number and gotten to 13. He's gone up and over this number in three of his last four games. And you wonder if he's earning a few more snaps going forward. Curtis Samuel over 11.5 receiving yards, the old he can do it in one catch type of prop. Yeah, this one I'm with you, Joe. It's kind of stuck out. I look through the props, and I always have like a general idea where I think a number should be.

and I saw that 11 and a half. I'm like, why isn't he like 18 and a half? You know, something where it's like a full two catches to get over the prop. So this one really stood out to me. I thought, you know, kind of just, I've been kind of avoiding bills receivers for most of the season because they've been using a rotation. But I was waiting to see maybe in that wild card round.

Maybe they tighten it up a little bit. Maybe Amari Cooper gets a bigger role. Maybe Keon Coleman. But they're still rotating these guys. So he was at a 44. percent route share last week. And if we think back to the preseason, who was the guy we were taking first in best ball drafts?

It was Kurt Samuel. And it's been a slow season here for him. But maybe he's starting to get a little bit of momentum built here with Josh Allen. We saw the big play last week. So 37% route share in six of his last seven games. He's been involved enough here. This is a low number. I also went back and looked through his prop numbers from throughout the season.

And the number went down. You know, it's the second lowest his prop total has been all season. And I'm looking at this game. I could see more passing here. It's going to be, I think, a higher scoring game. I think could turn into a little bit of a shootout. So yeah, this one's kind of standing out for me. I probably bet it up to 14.5, 15 and a half receiving yards.

If this does move up later in the week. But yeah, Joe, let's super best bet here with Curtis Samuel over 11.5 yards. Let's do it. Yeah, all right, Curtis. Tom, you said you were avoiding bill receivers because of the rotation they were using. Well, this isn't necessarily a receiver, but this is a receiving prop. This one is disgusting. Oh, boy, where are you going? Because the juice was minus 150. Okay. So this is considered more likely than not. But James Cook hasn't caught a pass in a month. Really? He hasn't called a pass in a month.

Ty Johnson, getting all the work. Yeah, Ty Johnson. Now, of course, this is potentially problematic because Ray Davis was put in the hospital by Josh Allen last week with a terrible. I did see before we got on the air here, limited practice today. Oh, okay. On a potential path to playing. Well, James Cook has gone under two and a half receptions in six of his last seven games. He has not caught a pass since before Christmas. Um, his line is at two and a half catches.

He can catch two passes, which would be literally his second best game in a month and a half and still not hit the over on this prop. So even if he catches two passes, I'm covered here. Give me James Cook under two and a half receptions. Okay. I like that one. I'll give you a little more slop here. Justice Hill over his rushing yards. I got this at six and a half. It has moved up here to seven and a half.

I'm seeing in some spots, but we're projecting him for 21 rushing yards. He actually had a season high last week, you know, kind of the blowout fashion of the game, six carries last week. But he's, you know,

this is the lowest. His prop has been all season. But he's averaging four and a half yards per carry, 3.3 carries per game so far this year. And he's hit seven or more yards in 10 of his 16 games. So in Buffalo looking at some of the numbers, they've been pretty friendly for opposing running games. And whenever Justice Hill is in the game,

he's usually facing lighter boxes. You know, he's in there in more passing situations. So they're taking linebackers off the field. And they're advantageous situations whenever he's on the field. And I have a feeling after watching the Steelers game last week, maybe the bills will key in on Lamar Jackson a little bit more. So if there's some of these zone reads, maybe the defenses will actually go after Lamar Jackson. And maybe that pops a little bit of room for Justice Hill on a potential carry in this game.

So looking at him over six and a half yards. If this hasn't been sloppy enough for you, well, you know, good friend Trey, who tried to be a straight better last week is coming in. And he's going to give you certainly some things to think about. We'll be back with good friend Trey after a word from our sponsors. Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget online casino is live.

Bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots that can turn any mundane moment. into a golden opportunity at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Take a spin on the slots, challenge yourself at the tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you can go for the gold at Golden Nugget Online Casino.

Gambling problem call Connects Ontario 1866531-260. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See Golden Nuggett Casino.com for details. play responsibly. The newly straight better good friend Trey is joining us right now. And unfortunately, he learned a lesson. There is no such thing as straight betting when you're betting on Quentin Johnston. I got cleaned out on prize picks betting on Quentin Johnston last week, excuse me, playing DFS with Quentin Johnston last week. And look, he had five targets. He didn't catch any of

them. He has a drop problem. And on top of everything else, Trey, you even curse Justin Herbert. because Justin Herbert was god-awful in that game, and he is the reason that the Chargers lost, no doubt about it. It was a losing week for Mr. QJ, but you're back at it, man. You got to just get up off the canvas and keep on going. What do you got for us this weekend? How are you feeling? Yeah, I wish we'd recorded a little later in the week

because I had heard from basically every single person that they were on the Chargers in that game. So I should have known that the Texans would come through. and make it happen. You know, I'm okay. O and one in the playoffs. We're just taking these nice, straight, short bets and get things rocking and rolling. So I've got a couple plays.

I went deep into the well. I got the, got the latte model crank back up. And I came back with some plays that I think are going to make me some money this weekend. So what do you think? And what do you got anything for that Saturday night game? That's the one game, Joe and I didn't have anything for that Lions and commanders game. We got to give the people something for that game.

I do. I have a couple things potentially for that game, but what I have placed is Austin Echler over 22 and a half receiving yards. That's going to be minus 110 bet three, six, five. Chris hasn't projected for like 27.9, 28-ish receiving yards, which I think is a fair projection. He's over that number in seven of his last 12 games. and four targets last week didn't obviously get over the number last week, but it means a high total game, the highest on the slate. I think we're going to see a lot of Austin Echler, and when he does go over this number,

he clears it by a good 20, 30 yards. So I'm hoping it's not so much of a sweat. I'm hoping we get to this game, and he just kind of takes over, and we maybe get it at half time, you know, a little two-minute drill to end the half, and we call it good. And here's a weird stat.

Maybe it's not that weird, but I picked this up a little bit earlier today. He has never had less than four targets in a playoff game, Austin Eccler. So I think we're going to pencil in these four targets. And hopefully he grabs three of them. And yeah, hopefully, hopefully a nice easy cash there. Yeah, I was on that one last week. I was on a little Austin Echler action. He was under for most of the game and got a little late swing pass there late to set up the game

winning field goal. So got the number there. And yeah, this week's game kind of sets up here as big underdogs here, eight and a half, nine points that maybe they're in more of those hurry up and passing situations in the second half. So I'm liking this one a lot. I'm fully approved on this one. Have you dug into the rest of the weekend though? Yeah, Trey, that's the thing that people want to know. I've got one other bet that I put down and I'm feeling good about, but I'm a little nervous now because now that I know what action you have down, you know, I can see how this is going to play out. So what I actually picked up is Amari Cooper over 20 and a half receiving yards. That's the best line. Most places have it at 21 and a half. That's over on Fanduil. Chris hasn't

projected for 26.5. And so now that I know that we all have Curtis Samuel overs and Joe put a James Cook under on the books, James Cook's probably seven catches, eight, catches. It's going to be the Ty Johnson, James Cook and Dalton Concade game for the Buffalo Bills this week. Now, we're getting all these. They're spreading the ball around this week.

Yeah. So he's with the bills, he's over this number. Four out of the eight games he's played with the bills. And something that's kind of interesting with this, I know the discord will love this. When he does get over this number of 20 and a half, he's averaging

about 68 yards. per game. So this to me, if you're viving with it, is potentially a ladder opportunity. I will not be doing that, but you won't? I won't. I'm on the straight and narrow. Yeah, he's on that. Come on. Don't, don't, don't talk them off. Okay. All right, all right. I'm not, no, I cannot be an enabler. I won't do it. You'll be really proud of me with my last play here. Let's not even, I'm not even putting down, but I'm going to mention it. But yeah, it's a little bit of a ladder opportunity. Uh, matched up with Patrick Chertan last week doesn't have quite that presence to deal with this week

second highest total on the slate over 50 points so yeah I think that he you know is going to see the volume that we need and hopefully he brings down a long one or or gets another 14 target game or whatever he had in the middle of the season there that random spike week and yeah I just think the potentials potentials there for him to be well over this number you'll probably know at half time if he's got zero he's probably not getting there and if he's got 70 you're feeling pretty good so i'm uh i am just i'm taken aback by how subdued you are

how rational he's talking up the ladder where he's like i'm not actually jumping on this ladder guys you know well you might be you might be disappointed if uh uh the ladder hits now that that would be the worst thing for you i think if the ladder hits and you didn't bet it even though you talked about it on the show um look we're going to have a great weekend of football ahead of us and follow all of our work at fantasy points.com. Get the early bird special now through Super Bowl Sunday, no strings attached, no coupon needed, 20% off at checkout, get all of fantasy points. We are making hires on the development side to make sure things are just better than ever in 2025.

And we appreciate everybody growing with us. I've got one more thing that I just got to throw out there. And I'm not playing it. So take that with the grain of salt. you know because i'm sadly i'm on the straight and narrow okay so i'm i'm not i may may make the wager by the end of the but i have not like a free bet you know you get a one of those free bets you know yeah that's okay the latte model okay it's back up i i cranked it back and and we're crunching the numbers and it's telling me that terry mccloren is scoring a touchdown this week oh it's the

lines so i don't think it's the best place for me to be to be betting anytime touchdown scores uh but But yeah, I was, is it minus odds? No, it's plus. No, no, no. Plus 125. I was going to say, yeah, he's usually not one. Yeah, I was about to say that with that total being like 50s, there's going to be some really disgusting looking anytime touchdown score. That actually sounds like a decent bet given the odds, though.

Yeah, I feel pretty confident about it. He was basically the only guy on the slate that I felt pretty confident that he would score a touchdown. So best, the best number out there I'm seeing is one plus. 140 at Fandle. If you want to get the best of the number there, like the little little late bet here after a little sales pitch. So if you listen the whole way through, maybe you'll be rewarded with a little extra cash here. Yeah, you got a sneak one in there. Sneak one at the end. I'm mostly just bringing it up to let Joe know how good I'm being, you know, and I'm not chasing these touchdowns. I'm just going for just going for the props. I love how you're thinking about

it and still not chasing it. You know, most most people would try to remove that influence from their life. You're just trying to like, you're like, uh, Ben Stiller in Dodgeball when like, he has like a slice of pizza in front of his face and every time he goes to take a bite out of it, he shocks himself. To give himself that, oh man, that was, if you watched that movie recently, that's a good, that's a good, that's a good one. That's a all time.

Classic. That was a college, uh, Friday night. We, you know, if we, if we, if we didn't have any booze in the, uh, the dormitory and we need a little entertainment to watch Dodgeball. So, uh, Yeah, that's, so, yeah, I mean, Trey literally appears on a Best Betts, you know, podcast here, and he's trying not to bet all these. Well, good for good for good friend, Trey, good for Tom Raleigh, bad for me. It's been, I've been cold, man, like, but all I need is a four and a week to snap out of it. We'll see if it can happen.

Enjoy the games this weekend, everybody, for good friend Trey and Tom Raleigh. I'm Joe Dolan. Thanks, thanks, everybody. Talk to you next week.