Fantasy Football Daily - Sneaky Free Agent Winners & Losers | 2Barz Podcast

Episode Date: March 29, 2023

The Barz Bros are back! This week, Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) talk about the top guys in this year's running back draft class, Elijah Moore being #freed, why some people might be underrating Daniel Jones, and the winners/losers of the free agency period. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-fantasy-points --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sale. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27th. Conditions apply, details online. One foot of money, two bars on the show. Yo, welcome back.

It's two bars. I'm one half of the bar. Scott's on the other side of the bar. We're here. Breaking down some sneaky free agency winners, losers. As if there isn't enough free agency content out there, we're here for some more. So hopefully we'll give some insight that hasn't been previously talked about, get some deeper names here.

But Scott, how's it going, man? It's good to kind of have like a little lull, I guess, between free agency and the draft. Yeah, no lull for me. I'm knee-deep in my rookie model stuff. I think I'm going to publish this late for the first time ever, going to publish this post-draft instead of pre-draft. I give it some thought. I think it's really just for me. Like, I've had the most accurate pre-NFL draft rankings for, I don't know, three years in a row. And that's like right up there with anyone, you know, Dean Bruegler even.

Really proud of that. But like no one, no one cares, right? So it's just kind of like a vanity thing for me. Also just like behind on it. And also, like, I have no confidence in this rookie class after. Bijon or Gibbs and it's all landing spot in draft capital so yeah uh that probably going to be a little late on that this year yeah you might be better off waiting until after the draft honestly to do it because i mean you're right this this rookie class especially at running back and after like even three i think you can just i mean it's literally just lot of picks at this point uh by the way you sound amazing. You sound like you should be on NPR. That's right. With that new mic, man. ASMR.

Yeah, if this doesn't work out first, bro, you could just do ASMR videos on YouTube. Yeah. Well, people are subconsciously just going to think I have the best takes because I sound so crispy and clean. So you need to upgrade your mic. I've been doing podcast and shows with you for like five years. And you sound like a new man. This is awesome. Yeah, man. I know, I know you're grinding hard on rookie class stuff. This is like the first time because I'm not doing your arts grade. This is like the first time. It's been like March 28th and I feel like caught up somewhat on work.

So I have like some stuff on the back burner. You've done an amazing job with the free agency stuff where I've kind of barely paid attention to it. I'm just kind of building out all the shells of the prospect stuff. And you know, collecting my thoughts. So like I'm excited to you have all your well-reasoned takes. where I'm just flying in a blind, just like full yolo, like the hot take. So this is going to be a fun show. All right.

It'll be fun. It'll be fun. Let's get to it, man. We'll start off with some pretty obvious sneaky, not so sneaky, sorry, not so sneaky, free agency winners. Three backs here really kind of dodged some of the free agency, the dearth of free agency running backs at the position. Ramondra Stevenson, Tony Pollard, and Rashad White.

I'm not sure if you have a strong take on any of those three. I think Stevenson and Pollard are pretty straightforward. I mean, with Stevenson, man, we still want him just to get these dump offs. But no Dame Harris. They signed James Robinson, who is most likely dust. And they could draft a back for sure. But, I mean, outside of Robinson and Gibbs, no one really scares me. And then with Tony Pollard, I mean, Zeeke is gone.

I think the Cowboys are definitely going to draft a back. But again, it's one of those situations where like no one in this class really scares me. scares us. So we'll start with those two. Stevenson, I think, is the trickier one, just because this Patriots offense man still might stink. But at the end of the day, I mean, if he's still getting four or five, six targets a game, Stevenson's going to be a strong back end RV1, even if the Patriots, you know, draft another back to give some early down carries too. So I love Romandre Stevenson, loved him coming out. And he was just awesome last year. Two hundred 10 carries. 88 targets, was this bell cow that we haven't seen in New England in, I don't know, since

the Lawrence Moroni era. The question was how much of that was due to Damien Harris dealing with injuries. But remember what our sources told us in heading into the season. And I guess the same exact source also told Matthew Barry, which was you might not see it in 2022, but in 2023, for sure. New England is envisioning Remandre Stevenson to be their Alvin Camaro. And remember, this was said before Camaro sucked in 2022. So yeah, massive fantasy potential belcow workload. And it seems like, you know, James Robinson not scaring me

that are sources correct. And like, there's a really good chance that happens because he was the Belcow. He was awesome. And there's a chance, you know, that role even grows in 2023 because James Robinson, in a far dustier version of Damien Harris, I think. So I'm definitely very excited about him.

And then Tony Pollard, like obviously, like if we were drafting today, like the draft happened and Dallas didn't add anyone, he's a round one pick. Just every, I mean, on like the X, he was the number one XFP guy where basically he got low end RB2 volume and was an easy mid-RB-1 in production. So it's like you give him RB1. volume and like okay is he the overall rb1 he's just so good he's awesome the problem i have the concern

i have is that jerry jones is obviously had donkey so it's like you know i could see them adding bjohn robinson or i could see them adding jemir gibbs or i mean kareem hunt is sort of lurking and then i was talking with tom tipple and jacob sanderson of their podcast last week like it's what if they did draft bjohn like that would be i would be you after paying Zeke, after drafting Zeke at four or five, whatever it was, and then paying him all that money, it'd be hilarious if they came back and drafted Beijon. Speaking of Bejohn, I've heard some legacy media folks say that the Patriots are going to draft him at 14. Like, he should be in play for them.

Like, that makes no sense. I mean, Ramandre is, what was he, a fourth round pick, man? Like, he's super cheap. He still have two years of control on his deal, and he's proven he can be a Vel-Cal. I don't get the Bijon at 14 at all. I don't get Bijon, frankly, like, in the top 30 at all. But, yeah, man, I think, I think, I think you're right. If we were drafting today, Pollard would probably go 10 or 11 behind JT.

I think that'd be about right. Maybe a little, maybe even ahead of Eccler. Let's talk about Rashad White, though, because, I mean, the Bucks are obviously still in flux here. You know, Baker will get a shot. Maybe they'll draft a guy. Maybe they really just wanted to be Baker and Trask, and they tanked within this division this year. But Rashad White is set up pretty well here. I mean, this backfield behind him is not great.

You know, Lenny's gone. I wasn't really enamored with Rashad White as a prospect, and I don't think he were either. But, I mean, when he did get significant run last year, he was much better than Leonard Fournette. And that's not saying a whole lot, obviously. But he was light years better than Fournet. He's a tricky guy to rank, but right now I have him like 75, 78 in best ball rankings. That's slightly ahead of ADP strictly just because I think the workload for him is going to be pretty strong. And again, I think this kind of sticks back to a theme of at least these three guys here.

Like this rookie running back class is not that great. And I mean, I don't think the bucks are in contention to draft, Bejan or Gibbs. Like they have a lot more concerns, I think, than running back. Right. So this team is going to absolutely stink, I think. And, you know, maybe they'll just go full on tank mode and try and get a quarterback in next year's stack class, like an early draft pick. And so you have so many holes.

You're not really thinking about running back. So Rashad White was someone my model said had a really high chance of being a Belkow. My running back model is basically ranked by likelihood of being a Belkent. And so like pass catch, really good pass catching running back, more than competent runner. And so, yeah, it looks like he's going to be thrust into a belcow workload. And sure, the offensive line is bad, the offense is bad, doesn't really matter. Running back is just a position that's so driven by volume. The only thing I'll say is I feel like my initial evaluation on him was a little wrong,

or at least I'm more worried about it now. Sure, he underwhelmed as a rookie. but I was digging into the prospect model stuff. And my concern on him last year was sort of whoever the coach he had was, has had a lot of hyperproductive running backs who never panned out at the NFL level. And then what did we see this year? We saw a running back. I can't pronounce his first name because there's an X, Z, and a V in the first five letters of his first name.

But his last name is Valdei. and he basically had the exact same production as Rashad White. He had nine more rushing yards. And granted, not as many receiving yards per game, but really similar production. So that's like a bit of a red flag for me. So again, I don't really know how good he is. Like I think maybe I was a little too high on him. But certainly, you know, he seems set up for terrific workload.

And that is the most important thing beyond talent. Yep. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, he didn't really pop in yards created for me, but was a great receiver. We saw that last year. Yeah, and targets are worth 2.8 times as much as a carry in PPR league. So that is just huge. Yeah, you want that. Yeah, exactly.

As long as he's still, you know, getting 60, 65% route share, even if they draft the guy late, getting some really done work, I think I'm going to be higher than market on Rashad White. All right. I'm going to kick it to you. I know where you're going to go with this first. We got to talk about him. Who is your favorite?

I don't even know if it's favorite, but who's your top player that gained value that you want to get to here? Oh, that's absolutely Elijah Moore. My guy is freed. We've been saying, hashtag free Elijah Moore. He is finally freed. Also, guess what? I had the scoop on this. I was in a work company meeting with you, and I didn't check my DMs.

And I could have scooped Adam Schaefter and Ian Rappaport for the first time ever. But yeah, my guy is free. He has Deshawn Watson as quarterback. There's not a lot of target competition. Amari Cooper just always disappears on the road. So this is like a great spot for Elijah Moore. And it's like now it's do or die. It's, you know, was my initial valuation correct and this guy is a stud?

Or was I just wrong? And like, you know, if it does not go well in Cleveland, you know, I'm going to be eating so many else, you know, reputation damage. But I'm bullish. I'm excited. I think this is a great landing spot. Yeah, man, I'm with you. You know, the Browns obviously are going to draft a guy, too. So they view Elijah as kind of their rookie this year, you know. He fits in perfectly. Cooper and DPJ on the outside. DPJ came on really strong, like sneaky, really strong in the back half of last year. I remember I was I was betting his over yards prop like every single week. But all three of these guys work really well together. Then you mix in and

Joku, who's kind of like a big slot receiver. You can play in line and dominate up the seam. I mean, you can really convince yourself that this is the best quartet of weapons that Deshaun Watson has had in his career. I think the big question now becomes like, is Deshaun Watson still Deshaun Watson? You know, I think we kind of expected him to have a little bit of a falloff coming back from suspension and then basically not playing for the first 10, 11 weeks, not being with the team. He was a bottom, you know, six, bottom eight NFL quarterback last year.

I do think he rebound some, but, you know, Deshaun Watson was a guy in Houston, man. I mean, he elevated Will Fullard, wide receiver one status. Brandon Cook's was consistently a two. So Watson, to me now, becomes the biggest question of this offense, ironically, for fantasy purposes, because, I mean, all three of the receivers really, really work well together. And, man, I think kind of a sneaky, sneaky winner is Nick Chub right now. too. Kareem Hunt still unsigned. Their only back

behind him is Jerome Ford, who I kind of liked a little bit, but he didn't get on the field last year. Deerner's Johnson is now a Jaguar. You got a one-year deal. So Chubb is somebody I'm definitely a little bit higher on than the markets right now too, because I am buying a little bit of a Watson bounce back. He's not a bottom

eight quarterback. I think he's going to bounce back this coming year and this offense, I think he's going to take a step forward. Did you know that... With your boy, Elijah. Did you know that in the history of the NFL, there are only 86 instances of a running back averaging 5.0 yards per carry or better on 190 plus carries. And there are only five running backs with three such seasons in their career. And Nick Chubb, who's done it five of five career seasons. Wait, hold on, can I guess the other two?

Can I guess the other three? Yeah. Okay, there's three more. So it's three or more seasons with over five yards for there are only there are only four running backs with more than three such seasons in their career but all all three uh did it exactly five times so there was no one with four and there was no one yeah there was no one peterson uh no oh off to a rough start um just name the best running backs barry sanders yep he did it so five times and ten career seasons okay um um I want to go Earl Campbell. No. He was a yards per carry legend, though.

He didn't probably play long enough. All right. Next to who? Jamal Charles, which he should have got. Oh, yeah, though. Five of 11 seasons. And then Jim, Jim Brown, five of nine career seasons. So Nick Chubb has done this in five of five career seasons.

This is a generational, that word gets thrown around way too much. A generational runner, like the best since Adrian Peters. and the best in Jamal Charles. But we're in an NFL era where pure runners are massively devalued. But yeah, Nick Chubb is awesome. The problem is he's not a great pass catcher.

So even losing Kareem Hunt, I think, who did he have there? Demetriq Felton. Yeah, yeah. And he was basically a slot receiver when he played last year. Damn, yeah, Adrian Peterson only have two seasons that were five yards per carry.

That's surprising. I am kicking myself for not getting Jamal Charles. I was a huge Charles stamp. But yeah, I think it sounds like we're all in on Browns. And I think if you're playing early bestball or in Dynasty leagues right now, maybe it's time to see what the market is for the Browns because I think, you know, watching Watson and watching that team kind of struggle a little bit has kind of killed our perception. As we go into 2023, and I want to make sure that I'm not biased towards that.

One offense. I'm thinking of, by the way, I'm sorry. Yeah, go ahead. Deerness Johnson, but not even him. Jerome Ford, that's going to be the guy to draft in that best ballies. Yeah, I've got him, I've got him ranked in like the 220 range. There's a bunch of like, I mean, the draft is going to blow up probably this backfield. I think the Browns probably draft somebody late.

But there's a bunch of handcuffs that are going in like the 220 range that are probably going to be in the 175 range in the summer. So if you can get on it, get on it. Switching over, this is more like broad. a team take, but I'll say Trevor Lawrence is a sneaky free agency winner. Calvin Ridley, obviously. What's that? This is a Homer take?

Oh, I mean, partially, absolutely. Is this the most excited you've ever been, the most optimistic you've ever been as a Jaguars fan? Without a doubt, yeah, without a doubt. Man, I thought David Garrard was a great quarterback growing up. Like, that's how bad it was as a Jaguar. That's so sad. Yeah. Like, Garard was easily the best quarterback we had in, like, the late 2000s, too.

But yeah, I mean, not just that. AFC South is really, really bad. Colts, Titans, Texans all struggling. But, I mean, it's hard not to be in love with Trevor Lawrence, and it's hard not to be loved with this offense. I mean, they're all cheap. I mean, you can get Ridley, Kirk, Ingram, all past round five right now.

I think Ridley's going to really come up in price right now. He's going around 40 and 80p. But, I mean, this offense, man, is going to score a ton of points. And it's not just, I think, Trevor Lawrence takes another step further. and continues kind of this upward ascension, like, their defense sucks. They are going to give up a ton of points this here. And I think that's a factor in buying this offense. I think Lawrence, in terms of just positional ADP,

Lawrence is being drafted near his ceiling at like QV7, QV8. We need him to run a little bit more. And I just don't know if that's something that Doug Peterson's going to want him to do. We know Lawrence can. We saw him do it at Clemson. He would run past defenders, which is crazy. I don't know if that's going to be a part of his game. the NFL. But if that ever it is, I mean, that'll be the next step for him to become a top five

fantasy quarterback. But all that being said, like, I think if you're playing early best ball right now, man, Jags are probably one of the most fun mid-round teams to stack because you can get pretty easy dub stacks between Ridley, Ingram, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk. Yeah, I think I think Charter Lawrence is set up for, you know, 35 touchdown season here, if all goes right. Yeah, I can't help it think of Andrew Luck. You know, this is the guy he was come to come as the greatest, most complete quarterback since Andrew

Look. And looking at Trevor Lawrence's sophomore season, especially the second half was just right up there with you know, sophomore season Joe Burrow. But like really, you know, optimistic expectations just like Andrew Luck who was being drafted as the QB1 heading into his junior

season, although he finished, you know, eighth or whatever the year before but uh yeah Trevor Lawrence last year 242 passing yards per game 25 touchdowns eight interceptions Andrew luck his sophomore year in the NFL 239 passing yards per game 23 touchdowns nine interceptions and then there was that Andrew luck explosion junior year where he averaged 298 passing yards per game and 40 touchdowns he basically doubled his touchdown total so yeah I can definitely see that happening. Yeah, I mean, over his final 10 games, basically once they came out of the buy last year, Lawrence had 18 passing touchdowns, basically the bulk of his passing scores came in the back half of last year.

I think he's absolutely a candidate to have an Andrew Luck type explosion. And like I said, I mean, ironically, with the luck comparison you just made, those Colts defenses were not very good back then too, gave up a ton of points, a lot of shootout games. So, yeah, I'm all in on Jags. Next guy for you, man. Who's on your list? Who you have your eye on as a post-free agency winner? This is another easy one, Garrett Wilson.

Yeah. I mean, come on. Well, Rogers hasn't signed yet, man. Is he still in his dark room? Like, what? Is he ever coming out of this? No, I mean, it's like 90% odds that he's going there. That's basically what Vegas is saying.

And I still think there's some room with his ADP. But yeah, look at what Garrett Wilson did last year. With Joe Flacco, 17.3 fantasy points per game. With Mike White, 17.3 fantasy points per game. So, you know, sophomore, wide receivers tend to get better in their second season as opposed to their rookie year. With Aaron Rogers, I mean, you know, sky feels like the limit. This is the offensive rookie of the year.

No more Elijah, sure. Aaron got some of his guys, but none of these guys, I think, are really talented. Even if they get Odell Beckham Jr., who I maintain has been cooked for quite some time, I could see Garrett, you know, everyone's saying Garrett Wilson is his new Devante Adams, but I could really see that from a production standpoint. Yeah, I mean, did you see the quote this week from Robert Sala, where he was basically saying, oh, yeah, we didn't sign Alan Lazzard to try to lure Rogers over. We didn't bring Nathaniel Hackett from the Broncos after he had such a great year.

Yeah, we just thought he was, you know, got it on his laurels. Like, dude, are you kidding me? Like, I kind of feel bad for Saul at this point. And I kind of feel bad for Jets fans just waiting and waiting. But you're right. Garrett Wilson, man, I mean, we talked about it, I think, on our last show. But you and I both are probably going to be heavily on him in the second round. And I'm not sure too much more needs to be said.

I think more leaving just further bolsters that case because I'm with you. I don't think Alan Lazard is anything more than like just a pretty good number three. And Corey Davis is not that good anymore. They'll probably draft somebody. But yeah, man, Gary Wilson's set up for Monster. Monster season, 150 targets. It feels like the floor and he can really explode with upwards of 180 if Rogers does go. All right.

So that one was a little more obvious, but still Gary Wilson, massive, massive. Basically, like, Gary Wilson's name is surrounded by rocket ship emojis at this point. I'll take it a little deeper. Khalil Herbert, I think, is a post-free agency winner. Listen, David Montgomery's gone. Deontoy Foreman right now is his only competition. They signed Foreman on a one-year deal. But Khalil Herbert was awesome last year in a small sample.

He tied for third among 44 running backs and mistackles force per carry. He was second yards after contact per carry in that sample. I think Herbert, as long as he can dodge one of the three or four top running backs, rookie running backs in this class, which he very well might. The Bears have a ton of other needs along the offensive line, especially on defense too, and they have the capital to do it. I think Hello Herbert and Deonté Foreman is a one-two punch, super cheap, one-two punch in the back field to go with fields.

It makes a ton of sense from the way the bears are just kind of constructing their roster. I think higher than anybody that I've looked at in terms of early rankings on Khalil Herbert. I think I see, you know, I see eight touchdown upside here. The only downside is he really is not going to get any passing down work at all. But, you know, eighth, ninth, tenth round, and best ball. I don't really care so much about that. I want the, you know, the 20-carry 100-yard-2 TD games with fields. I think the bears are going to take a huge step forward offensively this year.

and I think Herbert, you know, just will, you know, more layup touchdown attempts, more red zone all helps Herbert score more in the red zone. What are your thoughts on this backfield here? Because, I mean, if it's just Herbert informing, like, both of these guys are massively, massively mispriced. Yeah, my only concern is, you know, out of the combine, Matthew Berry and the roster watch guys interviewed the Iber Flues who said, yeah, we need, you know, Herbert's not really much of a past catcher. We need to add some help there. So that's definitely not foreman.

So, you know, if Herbert's losing carries to form in and then losing tart, I mean. Maybe he's Travis Homer. I mean, they did sign them too. Yeah. So maybe the move is to draft Travis Homer in round 19. Like that's not a terrible idea. But yeah, you know, hyper-mobile quarterbacks tend not to target running backs and does help ground game efficiency.

And the offense should be better. And Herbert was a beast last year. and he's probably a value in bestball. He's just not someone I'm personally excited to draft, but you know, you give him that full on workhorse role

if you don't view form in a serious competition. I can see him smashing as like a cheaper version of Nick Chubb. Yep, that's kind of what I'm thinking, man. Next guy on your list. I think we're going to agree on this one. Darren Waller, I think he's the most misprice player

in basketball drafts right now. I really like, you know, as a Giants fan, I, you know, I'm kind of bummed that we made the playoffs and then won a game because, you know, we needed kind of good draft capital and now we don't have it. But we're in good hands with a brilliant head coach and a brilliant GM. And I think what the GM was doing is something I've talked about is there's a market inefficiency with highest end past catching tight ends because they're priced like tight ends when Darren Waller should be priced like a wide receiver.

So you're getting like an extra $8 million in saving. So I thought that was really smart adding him. And this is what the Giants Beats are saying is like, no, this is their wide receiver one. This is how they're viewing that. And say he is their wide receiver one. This is by far the best wide receiver, Daniel Jones has ever played with. So I mean, Golden Tate was awesome, but not when he was on the Giants.

Right. Yeah. So and in basketball in particular, like getting a true oligarch. tight end is just so immensely valuable to your roster construction. You only need a draft two in total, let's say, and the comparative edge against all these people who are just, you know, unreliable tight ends. Getting one who's putting up wide receiver production, it's just a huge edge. So, yeah, I really like that big time buy, and he's a great play in baseball. Yeah. Say what you want about the Daniel Jones deal. They gave him the same.

deal with Stafford and DAC. We don't need to get into that. But like the Waller trade and then I also loved the Paris Campbell signing. I mean, they gave them like one year, one and a half million in base. Like it's, yeah, I mean, just a great upside deal for them. Waller, they essentially traded Tony, the pick that they traded the chiefs for, uh, that they got, sorry, the pick they got in return for Tony. They traded away. Um, so yeah, yeah, sharp move. Waller, man, like, you know, everybody's going to, the sticklers will be talking about how he's injury prone, but like, I mean, when he was healthy last year, Waller was still the same player in terms of efficiency. I mean, he was really good as an in-line receiver. I think he'll line up there more this year. And

Giantsmen, I think they have a really interesting rotation at receiver. But all that being said, I mean, yeah, I think Waller is probably going to sleepwalk doing like 115, 125 targets. Well, I had Daniel Jones listed as a big time winner, so let me just touch on that. This is by far the best supporting cast. He's had since high, I guess ever, right? I mean, he's supposed to do it was a joke. It was a joke at Duke, you know. Worst.

And then it's been the same thing in the NFL. And so now he has the best receivers ever had. The offensive line is going to be better. But the big thing to me, too, is, so he got paid. he's going to stay there and Brian Dable like look at the the change we saw from Daniel Jones in 2021 to 2022 and look at what Brian Dable did with Josh Allen and then the progress he made in a second and then third year and then kind of look at the step back that we saw from Josh Allen last year without Brian Dable so and and Daniel Jones does have

that Konami code upside so I think I'm I think people maybe underrating him as a easy QB1 for fantasy this year. Yeah, not me, man. I think I'm highest on him on staff and best ball rankings. And, you know, he's, he is like, I don't think he's going to get the rushing scores that he got this past year, but he is like baby Josh Allen for fantasy. And he's like, he's like 75, 80% Josh Allen, and he's priced like 50% Josh Allen. I'll be heavy on Danny Dimes once again.

He's not going to be a QB2 anymore, unfortunately, but yeah, absolutely. And on Danny Dimes. A couple of deeper names here that I wanted to talk through. Actually, real quick, one tight end that I want to mention before I move on here. T.J. Hawkinson, he's on your list, and I wanted to bring it up because I think he's a sneaky winner too, man. you know no adam feeling just justin josephorne's the two the vikings will probably draft one of these receivers on maybe late day two early day three fully expect them to do that because they need some depth but i'm with you on hawkinson i think hawk and waller are pretty clearly the two free agency winners

at tight-in yeah i mean he saw obscene volume with uh minnesota last year also like two of the biggest spike weeks we've ever seen from a tight end. And he cleared, what, 38 fantasy points twice last year. And yeah, just, you know, the clear number two receiver for Minnesota with Justin Jefferson, you know, getting bracket coverage at least, at least, you know, 30% of the time or every other week. So, yeah, just a great spot for him. I could really see. I don't trust.

the talent that much, but just the role on the volume and what we saw last year, I'm really open to the idea of him being an oligarch tight end. He kind of strikes me as like Zach Ertz in his prime. Like he's never going to be super flashy, but he's really good against zone, understanding how to get open underneath against zone. And he opened things up for Justin Jefferson. I mean, if you look at Justin Jefferson splits last year with and without Hawk after the trade, he was much better. It allowed him to throw the ball deeper to Jefferson. He was running deeper routes. And I think that's a part of the reason we saw Jefferson just get even better and better as the season went on.

It's because of Hawk. They do need a two, though. And KJ. Osborne is not going to cut it. So it'll be really interesting to see what Spielman does in the draft at receiver. Two deeper names continuing our talk of past catchers here of past coaches that have gained fantasy value after free agency. my two guys here, Alec Pierce and Nico Collins. Alec Pierce is simple. Paris Campbell's gone and their death chart is so thin.

I think they'll get a quarterback upgrade from Matt Ryan. Pierce was basically shoehorned into a part-time role last year with all of their entire coaching staff in flux. But right now it's just he and Pittman. I think both Pittman and Pierce are a little undervalued. Nico Collins for the Texans, he was better than Brandon Cooks in the back half of last season. It was better in terms of his.

yards per route run was better on targets per route run. He got more targets on similar volume. And their signings this so far have been extremely underwhelming. Robert Wood's got a multi-year deal, but he's probably dust. They signed Noah Brown who's met at best. John Mechie is, I think, coming back, but he's still a question mark. So really, just best ball only takes here for Pearson Collins, but I think both make a lot of sense as wide receivers five, six, seven types in the last few rounds of best ball. Any other big winners you want to touch on losers?

Yeah, I wanted to talk about Rashad Penny. And maybe I'll just always have a blind spot for these hyper-talented, oft-injured players. But, I mean, like, it's just easy to me. You know, like the toughest evaluations are, is this player good or not? And with Penny, I think we know he's good. it's just he needs to stay healthy. And like not only do we know he's good, but like his numbers are obscene.

Again, I'm doing my model stuff. And one of the most predictive variables for running backs is yards from scrimmage per team play. So since 2000, here are the best ever seasons. One, Rashad Penny, two, Christian McCaffrey, three, Lidini and Tomlinson, four Matt Forte, five, Melvin Gordon, six, Leonard Furnett. And the list goes on and on. It's like super predictive. So he had this amazing 2017 season. And then since then, just looking at what he's done,

he ranked second best all-time and yards per carry average in between Hall of Famer Marion Motley and all-time legend Bo Jackson. So he had the most efficient college football season ever. And he's been the second most efficient running back in 70 years. He only has 10 career games with 12 or more carries. But in those games, he averages. 122 rushing yards per game, 21.2 fantasy points per game.

That's more than Derek Henry's career game with a dozen and more carries. And over his last eight full games, 7.1 yards per carry, 18.8 fantasy points per game. And if excluding losses, because remember, he doesn't catch targets, he's just a pure workhorse.

He averages 141.6 rushing yards per game over his last five victories. And now he has ideal game script, the Eagles trailed at the lowest rate in the NFL last year. He is the best offensive line. Seattle's offensive line always ranked bottom seven. And what? He's going to be drafted in round 14 because he's injury prone.

The one knock is like, yeah, you know, he's signed for basically peanuts, but I just mean if he stays healthy, I don't see how he doesn't beat out what Miles Sanders gave us last year. Yeah, I mean, I think with this running back market, looking at these guys who got one-year deals, right, like Dame Harris and Penny, just, I mean, it kind of, I hate to say it, but it's just there are so many talented running backs that a lot of these guys that are really good players like Dame Harris, like Rashad Penny, that just have the one skill, you know, they're only early down backs. You know, they got kind of screwed in this market,

regardless of Penny's history, regardless of Harris dealing with injuries. I think those two kind of got screwed the most because I you know penny probably would have ended up getting a one year deal but maybe would have got a little more money regardless I mean there was just a huge dearth of running backs that all became free agents at once and you know that's why some of these deals look so wonky I mean even even miles Sanders who topped the market he's only getting six and a half million a year and that's like 14th or 15th among running backs so even the top of the market it was basically, you know, the 15th, 15th highest paid running back. Yeah, we haven't really talked losers.

Like, you know who's a loser is like any agent for running backs or like anyone who's are needy and has a lot of rookie picks? It's just crazy this year. There's so many running backs available in free agency in the draft via trade. And there's just so few available jobs. And so I tweeted out today and you agreed with it was just like, if I'm drafting a rookie redraft today. I'm not taking a single running back besides Bijon Robinson. It's just like the age of the bell cow is done. There's just too many good running backs and not enough jobs. And and so like what do you do

do from a redraft perspective? I think it pushes up the Bejohn Robinson's of the world, the Sequin Barclays of the world, and then just outside of that, yeah, load up on wide receivers. Yeah. And I spoke a little bit about this in my top. 240 underdog rankings but for best ball this year man like it makes even more sense to go receiver heavy and then just take a freaking shotgun to all these oh absolutely rachad penny types and from an nfl draft perspective like yeah that penny contract is awesome like why would you take bjean robinson in round one when you could just sign uh rashad penny for peanuts Damien harris for peanuts and brett talked about this on on his podcast is just you're giving up so much potential surplus value the

opportunity cost and drafting a running back is so high because you draft Bejan with pick, I don't know, 25, right? He's immediately the fifth highest price running back, but you take a wide receiver. He's going to be the, I don't know, 35th highest price wide receiver. There's just so much. So I was open to it a few months ago, but I think that's wrong. It's just seeing these free agency contracts. It's, you know, I wouldn't take Bejohn run one if I'm an NFL team. Yeah, and I think it was a unique year in that. sense if you were if you were the panthers or you were the saints or you were the lions i think montgomery is still my favorite my favorite deal overall because he can do everything you know you can you know you

can you can pass catch pass block obviously he's good on early downs but fantastic mistackle numbers um yeah i'm with you um real quick before we get out of here kind of wrapping up this this overarching theme jimier gibbs i think he's like he's like the one exception, I think, to your rule would be Gibbs, but I'm seeing some early dynasty drafts where he's going like 106, 107. And I think that's like, man, that's drafting him near his ceiling, honestly. I think it's just we've become so thirsty for running backs that like Jamir Gibbs is probably, I mean, he's a really good pass catcher, but like we've got legit concerns about him, you know, getting early down to red zone work. Yeah. He just,

doesn't profile as a volume back to me. Like I could see it because he's that good as a pass catcher. He's, he's okay to good as a runner. I just don't know that he's great enough to really be a true bell cow. I see him more as being like, I don't know, some weeks he'll be an eight touch guy,

some weeks he could be a 15 touch, but just like inconsistent and volatile. And yeah, so in a rookie draft, I'm not taking him over Jackson Smith and Jigba or Quentin Johnston. but he is the one who makes me pause. But outside of that, Zach Charbonnet,

I see analytically no difference between him and a Kendra Miller or whoever your RB7 in this class is. He just, the Taj Spears, I like, it just, yeah, no one gets me excited.

Yeah. Yep. Kind of bittersweet. I'm not junior arts created, but honestly with this class. Yeah. I mean, man, it would have been, same thing as you, it would have been a slog trying to rank

three through 10. Would have been a waste of time. Like, honestly, it's just a bunch of, yeah, a bunch of committee backs, right? That's basically what this class is. And that's what I was saying about RB4 through 12 last year. I mean, it was just a bunch of committee backs and that turned out to be right. All right, good shit, man. Everybody, thank you for listening.

As always, I'm Graham for Scott. This has been two bars. We'll be back again next week with another show. So be on tune for that. Also be in tune to all of the podcasts that we're doing these days. Scott, you mentioned Brett Whitefield Show. He is cranking out more podcasts, literally more podcast than anybody, I think, in the NFL draft space. The dude is, he literally was recording, I think, two or three more shows before you and I got on.

So make sure you're checking out Brett Whitefield's show on the clock. He is an all-star cast of guests as well. He's getting all the heavy hitters. Like, we legitimately have, like, I love Daniel Jeremiah's draft pod. I love Dean Buegler's out, but like we're right up there in the top five of draft. Absolutely, absolutely. So make sure you're checking that out as the NFL draft continues to roll on. Maybe right now are going to do a little NFL draft prop show.

Oh, nice. I'm excited for that. Yeah, it's the best, it's such a fun betting event. We, the subscribers and I made a bunch of money along with Tom Browley, betting props last year. So it's about that time end of March, early April, where props are going to start coming out so we'll get to that as well but until then we'll talk to you soon Deuces to the mean your boy is never regressing off season through the season

365 247 and it's one for the money two bars on the show One for the money two bars on the show