Fantasy Football Daily - STOP Drafting These Players 🚨 Top 12 Overvalued & Undervalued (2026 Fantasy) w/ Jared Smola

Episode Date: May 6, 2026

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Who are the most undervalued and overvalued players heading into the 2026 fantasy football season? We're going to find out today. That's him. That's the old cheat. Welcome to Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger, joined today by Jared Smola, one of the sharpest guys in the industry over at draft sharks. And a person who I love talking to this time of year, because we now have clarity with all the free agents. We saw the trades go down. and of course the NFL draft is over.

So we pretty much know where most players are going to play this year. Of course we're going to have an AJ Brown potential trade. And then there's a couple of guys lingering on the market, the Stefan Diggs, Juan Jennings types. But for the most part, the projections that we're starting to see are pretty accurate heading into the season. Jared's going to reveal some of the players that he is most excited about and maybe least excited about versus the market.

Jared, why don't you talk about your process here with your projections? Yeah, so we, you know, I start working on the projections for the coming season during the NFL playoffs. And then we released them like right after the Super Bowl. There's obviously a lot of guessing that goes on when you're, you know, trying to project this stuff in January and February. Like you said, Theo, this, I do a big projections update after the NFL draft. And that's my favorite one to do because at this point we kind of have like 95% of the answers, right? We can look back at all these teams, see what they did. with the coaching staff, see what they did in free agency, see what they did in the NFL draft,

and sort of start to get a feel for what they're telling us, you know, what kind of offense, what kind of team they want to be this season. So I feel really good about where our projections and rankings are at now, you know, much better than I did when I, you know, first came out three, four months ago. Yeah, and you're always really spot on with this one. Again, like Jared, you always have, you know, the breakout player or the comeback player of the year. You guys do that during the summer. It's always something I pay attention to because you hit on this very, very, very, often. And nowadays, these sort of early league winner shows are important because drafters are drafting earlier and earlier. There's $350 contests going on over at the FFPC where drafts are

continually filling and that's redraft. And then for best ball, the draft kings, the underdog, those are like filling up regularly. There's big time contests where there's a ton of skin in the game. So we want to we want to figure this stuff out earlier and earlier and early. Let's start off with a player that I was really excited to see you include on the sheet, a player that I have kind of pushed the chips in in Dynasty, and I'm going to be drafting a ton of in redraft. And that's Christian Watson. Talk about why he's underrated, reflective to the market right now,

and what a smash season for him could look like. And just looking back to last year, Watson was awesome. He was Green Bay's best wide receiver by basically any metric you want to look at, PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, target. per route run. Watson led the Packers wide receiver core and all those metrics. He actually posted career bests in both PFF receiving grade and yards per route run. And he was top six among 76 qualifying wide receivers in both of those metrics. So he was awesome last year. And remember, that was all coming off a January 2025 ACL Ter. I honestly was like totally off

Christian Watson last year. I thought last year would kind of be a lost season for him because of that, you know, early 2025 significant. knee injury, but he came back was super productive. But to me, the fact that he's still, I think, 27 years old, another year removed from that knee injury, there could be another level up to his game in 2026. And then you talk about Romeo Dobbs being out of the picture here, 85 targets last year. A big red zone role, Dobbs played for Green Bay last year. He had 26 red zone targets, 10 end zone targets. He's gone. You look at this wide receiver core. It's Christian Watson. It's Matthew Golden. It's Jaden Reed. Then,

And it's like Savianne William. So, you know, we've had these concerns with the Packers wide receiver core in the past where, you know, they have all these guys that they want to rotate and we don't get anyone running, you know, more than 70, 75 percent of the routes. I don't think that's going to be the case this year. I don't think it can be. I think Christian Watson is going to have to be a, you know, virtual full time player in this offense. I have a lot of concerns about Matthew Golden, just how good he is. I know we got the first round draft capital, but he just was not a target earner in college and was not. not in his rookie year. Jaden Reed. I love Jaden Reed. We'll see if the Packers are willing to play him into wide receiver sets. We haven't seen that be the case so far. So to me, Christian Watson just looks like the clear top option, at least among the wide receiver core. We can talk about Tucker Kraft as well, who is awesome, but he's coming off his own significant in the injury. So we'll see what he does at least early on in the season. But to me, the path is kind of clear for Watson to set career highs in, you know, volume this season, remain an efficient player, remain a big time touchdown score, which he's been throughout his entire career so far.

So we have him wide receiver 20 in our half-p-R rankings that, you know, the latest update. He's wide receiver 29 in underdog best ball ADP. So Watson, to me, looks like one of the best values at wide receiver right now. Yeah, I love it. And I think when you look at Christian Watson, he is a player that you could say, if things go well, the guy could end up with 12, 13 touchdown catches. and then if things go really, really well, there's some parallels to maybe his usage

and like a George Pickens last year where I don't know if he can get up to 135 targets, but I think 120 in this offense is doable if they commit a little bit more to passing the football. And you talk about Green Bay being a really good team, back-to-back disappointing playoff losses, have to do a little bit of self-reflection, and using Christian Watson like an alpha,

would be fantastic. You look at like the Terry McLaurin 2024 season where he had 13 touchdown grabs. Why can't they lean into Christian Watson like that? So I love it. You mentioned wide receiver 29. He's a smash pick for me right now on underdog and also an

FFPC. Let's talk about another player that you have as undervalued and it's a player that everybody was talking about last year and it's Drake May. What makes Drake May so undervalued to you? Do you think the market is sort of brushing off

last year's season and maybe not even anticipating that he could be actually better in 2026. This is an ADP that surprises me. I mean, Drake May, an exciting young player coming off an awesome 2025 season, but he's quarterback seven in ADP right now. He finished quarterback three last year. He's our quarterback three in our rankings right now. So he is probably my favorite target if you're, you know, looking to get one of those elite quarterbacks, you know, relatively early in your draft. again, Drake May last year, first in the NFL in completion rate, first in completion rate over expected, first in yards per pass attempt. He actually 8.9 yards per pass attempt last year, the 17th best mark in NFL history. He was third in the NFL in passing touchdowns last

year and he gave you rushing production, third among quarterbacks and rushing attempts, fourth in rushing yards, eighth in rushing touchdowns. Again, he finished quarterback three last year in fantasy points per game. In his, his second NFL season with what was still a, I don't know, mediocre at best supporting cast. They add Romeo Dobbs this offseason already. Seems likely they're getting A.J. Brown and we do have that baked like mostly into the into the projections. I think, I don't know, 75% chance. A.J. Brown ends up in New Engel. That's obviously going to be huge for Drake May. I think the, the pushback you get on May is

the super soft schedule he faced last year. And that was definitely the case. And it's, The schedule is going to be tougher this year. We are projecting his passing efficiency to come down. But a tougher schedule is also going to mean more competitive games for New England, probably more losses for New England. And if that's the case, you're going to have pass attempts go up. And New England last year, they were 26th in the NFL and pass rate, but they were 18th in neutral pass rate and fifth in pass rate over expected.

So what that means is this team didn't throw a lot because they were leading and winning a lot of football games. you know, by design, this was a neutral to even pass leaning offense. So if you get, again, more competitive games, more games where, you know, the Patriots are just playing from behind. I think Drake May is a good bet to throw more this season. So that's going to help offset any of that loss and efficiency. Yeah, I love the post you put over on X where you pointed out that when ADP opened up over an underdog, Drake May was QB2. And now he's been pushed all the way down to QB7.

And really nothing has changed other than. and his team drafting an offensive lineman in the first round. They take Lomu with the 31st overall pick. So they add another offensive tackle. And then, of course, they add Romeo Dubs, who fantasy managers have never gotten in line with, but he's a solid NFL player and certainly an upgrade for what they've had. They lose Stefan Diggs, but they're most likely adding A.J. Brown.

So I think the market's really overthinking Drake May. And then you talk about all the passing efficiency with improved weapons, but he also has had back-to-back seasons with at least 420 rushing yards. There's a chance that number could tick up too. So he's got so many outs here. And then just looking at the rest of the market, it's sort of like we're going back to early 20. It's like a time machine.

And now the market is like early 2025 ADP. It's Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and then Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hertz, where Drake May was great last year as a second year player and really his first full season as a starter. And now the market is sort of like he is what he is. You know, we'll put him in the lower, you know, QB1 range. So I love it.

I agree with you. The market is not baking in upside with him at all. Soccer fans, your chance to witness history is here. You can win tickets to the FIFA World Cup 2026 final thanks to Visa. All it takes is a BMO Visa credit card to enter. Sign up and enter at BMO.com slash contest. Contest Rules Apply. You talked about Christian Watson.

You also view his teammate, Josh Jacobs, as an undervalued player. And that was the only one where I thought maybe this was sort of contradictory to one another. But you sort of pushed back on that in the pre-show. Explain your enthusiasm for Jacobs, who's been just awesome ever since he got to Green Bay, back-to-back years with insane volume. He's going off the board right now as the RB 14. Jared, the guy has 28 rushing touchdowns over the last two years. Yeah, and he's near the top of the league and expected rushing touchdowns over the last two years and carries inside the five yard line over the last two years.

Like we can count on this guy to score a lot touchdowns. Just going back to Watson real quick, you know, not to spend too much time on him. But the exciting thing to me is that he comes out wide receiver 20 in our projections with us still projecting Green Bay to be, you know, one of the run heaviest offenses in the NFL, which they have been over the past two seasons since Josh Jacobs arrived. But, you know, if something were to happen with Jacobs, with the, you know, lack of depth they have behind him, like, Green Bay would have to throw a lot more. So that's just, that's just another path to upside for Christian Watson. But again, if Jacobs is healthy, again, how good I expect this Packers team to be, the defense is going to be awesome if, you know, Michael Parsons gets and stays healthy.

They're going to be playing with a lot of leads. I think this is going to continue to be a run leaning offense. And Jacobs, the last two seasons, RB seven in half PPR points per game, RB nine in half PPR points per game. Again, like you said, Theo, he's going, you know, well later than that among running backs in ADP right now. Even last year, remember he dealt with some injuries down the stretch and his workload was kind of scaled back over the final month or month and a half of the season.

If you just look at through week 10 last year, Jacobs was RB5 in half PPR points per game. He was RB3 and expected half PPR points per game. 18 carries 3.8 targets per game through week 10 last year. And again, the Packers this off season, they lose Emmanuel Wilson. They've added nothing to the backfield. It's Chris Brooks. And, you know, maybe we'll see if Marshawn Lloyd can finally stay healthy. But it's pretty clear to me that as long as Josh, Josh Jacobs is healthy, he's going to be a workhorse back on a good team, big touchdown upside, especially in half PPR like an underdog.

I think RB 14, he's easy, you know, five, six spots undervalued. Yeah. And I think that's sort of the. If the volume was catching up with him, the team would know internally before we would know. We've often seen teams make these like KG moves to add depth and quality at the running back position. I think that's really the best Josh Jacobs, like the pro Josh Jacobs could have another smash season argument is it's nothing. And Emmanuel Wilson was a valuable player for them. And I don't know, maybe there's some optimism for Marshawn Lloyd.

Chris Brooks certainly has a hive out there, but neither one of those guys, if we were ranking handcuffed running backs in the NFL, those two guys would come in in like the bottom three or four. So Josh Jacobs, the team is basically telling you everything you need to know. I think generally just taking a pro Green Bay Packers approach and drafting both of these guys is fine.

And the consolidation of touches could be there for both of these guys. This could be like the focal point of the passing game and obviously the running game with Josh Jacobs. He's had back-to-back seasons there where he's caught 36 passes. So that's pretty stagnant. It's solid. He's actually even caught a couple touchdown passes in Green Bay, which is nice to see.

And then you also mentioned like the Tucker Craft, where Tucker Kraft, there's a ton of enthusiasm for him, but coming off of a major injury, if there's a little bit of regression there, then they could lean into these two guys. So I really like where you're going with this Green Bay Packers enthusiasm for both of those guys. Another player who came out of the NFL draft, a winner,

was Rashi Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was associated with guys like Carnell Tate, guys like Jordan Tyson. There was also some Kenyan Sadiq enthusiasm there that they'd add another pass catcher at 9. They do none of the sort. They, in fact, go with a cornerback with their first pick. And then he avoids another wide receiver

at the end of the first round, as well. So Kansas City had a emphasis on defense, the entire NFL draft. Obviously, they had Emmett Johnson very, very late. But Rashi Rice sort of comes through this thing in the similar role that we saw at the beginning of last season. Exactly. I mean, give me the target hog playing with Patrick Mahomes. That's I think we're getting with Rashi Rice here. In his eight games last year, 26 and a half percent target share also played a huge red zone role for the Chiefs last year, 19. red zone targets in those eight games. That was seventh most among wide receivers. Rashid Rice in his eight games was fourth among receivers and expected receiving touchdowns.

And this is not a new thing either. Remember in 2024 in his three full games, 31 and a half percent target share, go back to his rookie season over his final 10 games, 24 percent target share. So the guy just controls targets for the chiefs. Like you said, Theo, no significant additions to the past catching core this off season at this point. They lost Marquis Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster, who actually combined for 119 targets last year. Travis Kelsey is another year older. He's obviously on the decline at this point, sort of nearing the end of his career. So this one's just simple to me.

I think Rashie Rice is going to again see 25 to 28 percent of the chief's targets. And that's good enough for me at his cost. This is one where this could be a topic for a whole other show. But, you know, we're only one spot ahead in wide receiver ADP on Rashy Rice. We have him wide receiver seven. wide receiver eight in ADP. But he comes in as our 11th overall player and he's 20th in ADP overall. So this is the case, you know, we just, we're higher on the wide receivers versus their running backs than market. I think, I think things have swung a bit too far

toward running back where, you know, for the, you know, four or five years before that it was, you know, zero RB, this, zero RB that let's pound wide receivers. I think it's swung a bit too far towards running back. So I find myself targeting some of these wide receivers more so than they're running backs in the first few rounds of drafts. I'm completely with you on, on, the running back enthusiasm is through the roof. And it's sort of a fantasy managers have seen that the last two seasons have been so running back dominant in terms of fantasy scoring. You're seeing also the embrace of all this 12 personnel where there's extra blockers on the field. And wide receiver twos are not scoring at the same rate as they used to as well.

I think there's some great value in attacking the clear alpha wide receiver ones. Now, not all wide receiver ones are cut from the same cloth, but when you find these guys with the immense target share, and they're also getting those first read rates, and then there are also threats in the red zone. Rashi Rice has so many outs. One devil's advocate take that, and I'm sure there's going to be people in the YouTube comments saying this one to us is they're going to say, yo, Jared, yo, Theo. Rashi Rice, back-to-back years has gone down with a lower body injury to end his season. Do you have any concerns about that? Nope. I will always buy any injury discount. I look at a young player, did not have injury issues in college. I don't think Rashi Rice is more injury prone than any high volume wide receiver. And a lot of motivation in the Rashi Rice camp, 2027, he's set to become a free agent. I would imagine based on all of the moves that Kansas City didn't do this off season, that they are going to re-sign him. We've also got the out that Travis Kelsey is what? 57 years old or 36. I can't remember. He's getting older and older and older where Rashi

Rice has already taken over as like the chain mover and the offense. Now he could potentially have an even larger role with Kelsey sort of being there. And I think the Kenneth Walker edition helps the offense just become more well-rounded, the threat of the running game there. So Rashi Rice, so many, so many ways he could win this season, completely agree with you. He's a very strong ADP value where he's at. Another player where we're seeing it again. Last off season, I remember having the take that like, oh, Terry McLaren's going ahead of Devante Adams. That feels wrong. Well, Terry McLaren's going ahead of Devante Adams again. And Devante Adams caught a million touchdowns last year. His first year is a RAM. Ends up with 14 touchdown grabs in, I believe it was

only 14 games played. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jared. So 14 and 14. And then you had, LA who was associated with guys like Mackay Lemon, Kenyon Sadiq, they end up passing on wide receiver entirely or receiver entirely in the first round. Draft Ty Simpson, sort of a zero addition in terms of what they're going to get in 2026. And then they draft Max Clare in round two, who's going to affect the Terrence Ferguson's, the Colby Parkinson's of the world. But he's certainly not going to do anything to Devante Adams. So there's a major gap between wide receiver three and the Pucanakua, Devante Adams hierarchy there. Last year we saw them as one of the most consolidated wide receiver target shares in the league, if not the most. Talk about Devante Adams and your enthusiasm here.

Yeah, I mean, I think we have Adams is probably the most undervalued wide receiver based on our projections and rankings right now versus ADP. He's wide receiver 26 in underdog ADP. again, that's half PPR where Adams gains value versus full PPR. We'll talk about it. He's getting a lot of his value from the touchdowns. But we have Adams wide receiver 17 in our half PPR ranking. So listen, I'm a, I'm a projections guy. So I am all about regression.

And I think when you look at someone like Devante Adams, who scored as much as he did last year, that would be a concern in most cases. And it is at least a bit of a concern for me this season. You know, we're not projecting him to score another touchdown per game. he did last year. But his touchdowns last year were fueled by usage, you know, 14 touchdowns. Adams had 14.9 expected receiving touchdowns last year. That was 5.7 more than any other wide receiver. This is all through week four, uh, week, week 15 before Adams got her. So 5.7 more expected touchdowns than any other wide receiver. He led wide receivers with 27 end zone targets,

12 more than any other receiver. Adams said 27. The next highest was 15. Adams also led receivers with 44 red zone targets. No receiver had more than 39. So, and I mean, listen, if you, if you watched Rams games, you saw this. They got down inside the five yard land. It was not handing off to Karen Williams. It was Stafford, quick drop back, you know, throw a quick slant or throw a fade to Devine to Adams. He was the goal line offense. I'm not sure that's going to change this year. It was super effective last year. The Rams obviously had a big season. Matt Stafford had a big big season. So I think the touchdowns, I think Adams is as good a touchdown bet as any receiver in the NFL. And it's not just touchdowns either. I mean, he had a 23.5% target share in

his 12 games with healthy Pukua last year. So 23 and a half percent target share. That's a strong number. And I could actually even argue that there could be some positive regression coming for Devon to Adams. He had a 52.4% catch rate last year. That was a career low. Just 65% of his deemed catchable. That was 59th among 76 qualifying wide receivers. Pucanacua, for comparison, was at 86% catchable target race. I just think, I don't know, maybe some positive variance, another offseason with Matt Stafford. I think that catch rate is going to come up for Devon Adams. You know, maybe that helps offset any loss and touchdowns. But to me, he just looks like a huge value at wide receiver 26. Yeah, he's like an easy click in best ball. There's the only reason I

think that he's available in this range is he's 33 years old. This is an ages take where people are fading the old guy, especially the old guy that caught a lot of touchdown passes last year. But completely with you, he's got room to run on the raw targets, too, only 114. And again, that was in 14 games. That could tick up a little bit. And again, this is a Matt Stafford offense where Matt Stafford is a good bet to finish within the top three or four quarterbacks and touchdown passes once again this year. So I love it.

Devante Adams, an easy click right there in the wide receiver. or three range. It just, it feels like a, like a free gift. As long as he stays healthy, there's no way you're going to see him fail at this sort of an ADP range. Very strong stuff. You've also got some tight ends, including one where Scott Barrett and I were breaking down sort of tight ends that we're into. We're going to be talking about on School of Scott this week. We're going to be breaking down some more Tyler Warren takes. But Tyler Warren just, it feels like the market is not where it should be. We saw how. Harold Fanning going ahead of him in the pre-NFL draft bestball streets, which felt really weird.

Tyler Warren last year had a really strong season. And then their new wide receiver one is now Alec Pierce, very different than their former wide receiver one in Michael Pittman, who was traded to Pittsburgh. So Tyler Warren, if we're talking about tight ends with the potential to lead their team in targets, he's towards the very top of the list. and that's been a massive indicator of fantasy football success, but you're still able to get Tyler Warren in like a comfortable range, 20 plus spots behind Colston Loveland.

So Warren's the tight end four, but he's the tight end four with a considerable gap from tight end three. Yeah, late sixth round ADP on underdutter right now. So like you said, Theo, you know, basically two rounds after Colson Loveland, four rounds after the elite guys, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. I think Warren might end up being the best value among those four. And I like those other three guys.

I'm drafting them plenty. But I love Tyler Warren at cost right now. He was an awesome prospect coming into the league last year, got the draft capital, and then scores the 10th most fantasy points per game by a rookie tight end in NFL history last year. And that was with Warren's production falling off pretty, pretty sharply without Daniel Jones. If we just look at through week 13 with a healthy Daniel Jones, Warren was tight end six in fantasy points per game. Tighten five in expected points per game.

He had a 20 and a half percent target share in those games with Daniel Jones. A really strong number for any tight end, especially a rookie tight end. 1.95 yards per route for Tyler Warren. That was fourth best among 36 qualifying tight ends. Again, this is in those 13 games with Daniel Jones. At this point, it does sound like is going to be back for week one this season. Michael Pittman out of the picture for the Colts. He leaves behind 111 targets.

And Pittman kind of worked the same area of the field for the Colts as Tyler Warren. Right. You look at their average target depth. Michael Pittman 8.2 yards. Tyler Warren, five point four. So both short range targets. Alex Pierce is going to continue to be, you know, mostly that downfield guy.

It's going to be Warren. And then Josh Downs, another guy who I like, you know, I think soaking up a lot of those Michael Pitman targets. So, you know, Warren's just a bet on talent at the cost right now. I know he's not as exciting as obviously Bowers and McBride, not as exciting. as Colson level just because the Bears offense in general is more exciting. But, man, Tyler Warren, like you said, he could get to 22, 23% of the Colts targets as their top target. And if that's the case, it's going to be really tough for him not to return value at this

current cost. You go back to what he did at Penn State, where his numbers, like, it's like when you look at him, you're like, did I read that correctly? 104 receptions sets the Big Ten record for that with the tight end position. And then also sets a Big Ten record. in receiving yards had 1233. Another thing that's sort of not being baked in with Tyler Warren is when he came to the league, we heard maybe they're going to use him in some of these Taysom Hill like packages.

Maybe they embraced that a little bit more in year two. He had one rushing touchdown as a rookie. If that number turns into four or five to maybe take a little bit of the pressure off of Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones also maybe as they ease him back coming off an injury, Maybe they don't use him quite as often as a runner. Maybe Tyler Warren ends up falling in the end zone four or five times. Then he becomes a candidate to finish as the tight end one overall on top of what we're predicting will be. I mean, Jared, he had 112 targets last year.

What do you think a ceiling outcome target would look like for you? I know you're very realistic. But if everything goes, goes well, is this a player that could end up getting a, dare I say, at 140 target season? Yeah. Yeah, again, I'm projections guy. I hate just throwing out numbers about actually looking at how it would break down. But I think if he gets 23% of the Colts targets, that'd probably be 130, 140 targets. And that's, again, kind of like the case with the Packers, I'm still projecting the Colts to be a, you know, run leaning Jonathan Taylor centric offense.

But if things go bad there, if something happens to JT and they end up throwing it, you know, 58, 59% of the time, you could, you know, you could get war into 140, 150 targets at that point. Which is insane. and if you're an FFPC player, you play tight-end premium, lean into Tyler Warren. He's got that Trey McBride-esque outcome and lesser target competition than like a Colston Loveland has right now. So unbelievable potential as a target earner. We've all been there. The watch party finally makes it out of the group chat and uh-oh, you volunteered to host. Suddenly you need snacks, drinks, dips, cups, and all the other party essentials.

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Another tight end who you're always sort of backing up. It's been a guy that you've been synonymous with. We're back at it again this year. Also a Brett Whitefield favorite, I will add, Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo. The fantasy community sometimes gets really annoyed on these pro Kincaid takes. And the market's reflective of that. He's tight end. 14 right now, but you like him in this range. I do. And I know not many people do and I get it right. Cause he, he's always dealing with injuries. You know, it's usually been the knee thing, which is, you know, still a concern.

I think getting into 2026 because he did not get it taken care of surgically this off season. But listen, when Kincade was on the field last year, he was like historically efficient. He led all 41 qualifying tight ends last year in targets per route, earned a target on 24% of his routes last year. I also led all 41 qualifying tight ends in yards per route run at 2.79. That was the best mark from any tight end with 40 plus targets since George Kittle in 2020. So super efficient, Kincade was the issue, of course, was the playing time. He was down to 52% of the bill's routes last year.

And that sunk every year. He was at 70% as a rookie, down to 61% in 2024, 52% last year. And I think that's partly by design, right? Kincaid is not someone you want out there when you're, you know, running it up to the middle and, you know, need a blocking tight end. That's not Kincaid. I think the lack of playing time last year was also at least partly health related. Again, he was dealing with the knee stuff throughout the season. And if you listen to what Brandon Bean said back in February, he said, quote, our number one thing with Dalton is to see if we can get him in a healthier fashion this this year so that we don't have to, A, miss games and then be limit how much.

much he's playing. So that tells me that, again, the lack of playing time was at least partly related to the health. And if he can, you know, get and stay healthy, he can get back up to 60, 65, 70% of the routes. And if you get that type of playing time with somewhere close to the efficiency he gave us last year, you know, I think Kincaid has a path to be a top five or top six fantasy tight end. And I can't say that about the other guys going in his, you know, range in draft here now. So just he's the upside to me. I want to take. in that, you know, tight end 12 to tight end 15 range. Yeah, and you said that very, very well in his range.

He's bracketed by guys like Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goddard a little bit behind them, and then Isaiah likely, who I'm always, you know, I'm always stumping for my guy, Isaiah likely. But Dalton Kincaid has the pedigree. He's a former first round draft pick. Obviously, he's played with Josh Allen for a while. But I think people are looking at this Joe Brady, Pete Carmich, new bills offense and trying to find the player that's going to benefit the most.

We're going to talk about DJ Moore. James Cook, obviously, there's people pounding the table for taking him and he's steamed up big time. But Dalton Kincaid could also be a real winner here if this new coaching staff embraces him a little bit more. And he simply sees the snaps and stays healthy. So I'm into that one. It's not all positivity, though, with Jared Smola. We're also going to talk about some players that Jared thinks are underval. But before we do that, why don't you talk about what you have going on this time of year over at draft sharks?

What is like the month of May looking like for you? Yes, you know, we spent the very end of April and early May getting our dynasty content in line. Obviously, we have our rookie guide up. That's totally free. Then our rookie projections, dynasty rankings, all that stuff's ready to go for your rookie drafts. And then after that, again, I moved on to these 2026 projections updates. Those are done. The rankings are updated.

Our draft award room is up and running. That's your, you know, custom. Drafting tool. You put in your league rules. It's going to spit out custom rankings and then keep those rankings updated for you with a live draft sync. So as your drafts happening, players will be coming off your rankings. Keep you updated there. So I'm excited to, you know, really dive deep into these best ball drafts now that I think, you know, our 2026 rankings are pretty set. Yeah. And a big shout out to Jared and all the guys over draft sharks. You guys are putting out continually really, really sharp content. And Jared has the receipts that sort of speak for

himself. That's why we keep asking him to come back on all these podcasts. A guy's always bringing the heat. Let's talk about some overvalued players. And this is one where I had Sigmund Bloom on a dynasty life maybe two months ago. We talked about potentially that Omari and Hampton was a player we should consider selling because of the way the market had steamed him up. And basically he was being valued like a guy who was going to become the next Jonathan Taylor. He comes in here overvalued. valued on your list in terms of the projections. Is this reflective to his ADP, or do you have concerns that Keaton Mitchell and Kamane Vidal are going to be involved a little bit more than fantasy managers might be,

might think that this season will shake out to? Yeah, so Hampton, uh, latest underdog ADP, RB 10 and 17th overall. We have him RB 12 and 24th overall. So again, this is a little bit of a case of I think he's a bit overvalued among running backs. And also, I just think running backs are going too high in general. So I would view Hampton as more like, you know, two three turn pick where as he's going, you know, early to mid round two, I'm excited about this Chargers offense and the run game in particular with Mike McDaniel. So I, I see the path for Hampton to be a top 10, you know, top eight fantasy running back. I think I just, I, like you

were alluding to Theo, I question how big a piece of the pie Hampton's going to get. He was good as a runner last year. If you look at 51 running backs with 90 plus carries last year, Hampton was 15th in rush yards over expected per attempt. He was 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Third and miss tackles force per attempt. So that's all good. I liked him as a runner coming out of college. And I think what he showed last year was solid. He was not very good in the passing game. 40 qualifying running backs. He was 26th in yards per outrun. 39th in PFF pass blocking grade. That was a big issue for him. We saw him lose work to Kamani v. Dow over the second half of last season because of the past blocking concern.

So I still have that concern, you know, how much, how involved will Hampton be in the passing game? And then how big of a role is Keaton Mitchell going to have? I mean, Mike McDaniel evidently loves this guy. He put up wanted posters in the Chargers facility for Keaton Mitchell. And, you know, their GM obviously made that happen. So I think Mitchell, I don't think Mitchell is going to do enough to be like a standalone fantasy option, but he might do enough to, you know, really take a bite out Hampton's fantasy episode. And then again, you just look at McDaniel, you know, his, and I know it's different personnel and all that, but his best

backfields in Miami were the Devon A. Chan, Rahim Moster committees, right? I mean, it wasn't necessarily a 50-50 split, but you had both those guys getting quite a bit of work. So I just, I wonder if he's going to, you know, work toward that in L.A. this season. And again, I think Hampton's going to be the clear leader. He's going to be a good fantasy pick, but, you know, can he pay off the R.B.10 ADP. I'm a bit skeptical of that at this point of the offseason. I think it could be an offense that's balanced with Hampton leading the way.

I think a lot of the players on L.A. are getting steamed up. We're not talking about Ladd-McConkie today, but I've talked about him on a number of podcasts, how he's steamed up to wide receiver 17. We're seeing Ronde Gadsden being drafted as a tight end one. And then a lot of these tertiary players like Trey Harris, Quentin Johnston, Quentin Johnson, I mean, maybe he's not quite tertiary. He could be a little bit more than that. But they're all going to get steamed up throughout the summer because people want. as many pieces of this Mike McDaniel offense as they can. I think the value could end up turning into Justin Herbert.

The way that O'Marion Hampton sort of burns your take is that he scores 15 touchdowns. He falls in the end zone a bunch of times. And I think that is in the range of outcomes. But betting on him having like that Josh Jacobs 2024 like season, I get it. It could happen. But he's being steamed up to the point where the unknown upside drafter. is also steaming him up to a point. People like those year two guys.

Jared, we've seen a lot of FFPC drafts where he's going at the one-two turn. So he's even more expensive in like the higher stakes leagues right now than a number of these running backs and certainly a number of these very appealing wide receivers. And I think if you're going with what Jared's saying, sort of the opportunity cost of drafting Omar in Hampton

is you're passing up on guys like Rashi Rice, passing up on guys like Drake London. and then he's also going ahead of like an Ashton Genty if you want to chase that year two upside bet. So I get it. People always get angry at this one. Let us know in the YouTube comments why we are so wrong about Omari and Hampton and why Jared should actually have him in the undervalued column and not the overvalued column. Here's another player that I've been talking about as a fade, a dynasty cell.

If you look over on keep trade cut, he's ranked ahead of guys. like Christian McCaffrey in Dynasty. And then in redraft, Bucky Irving continues to go at a very high range. He's, again, not steamed up to a point that's insane. He's RB 19. But I think the market is not putting enough stock into just how good Kenneth Gainwell was last year as a pass catcher. If Bucky Irving's going to smash,

doesn't he need all of the running back targets? Where are you at on sort of fading him as an overvalued player? Yeah, and again, he's RB19 at 43rd overall. So he's, you know, a mid fourth round round pick. There's another case where I have him, you know, a round and a half to two rounds overvalued, largely because I just, you know, some of the wide receivers, maybe an elite quarterback

and elite tight end in that range over these type of running backs. So, you know, I have, I have two issues with Bucky Irving. The first one is that he just was not good last year. 51 running backs with 90 plus carries last year. Irving was dead last in yards per carry. 50th in rush yards over expected per attempt, 51st in yards after contact per attempt. So he wasn't good last year. And I know there were the injuries.

I also know he was super efficient as a rookie and he was a nice looking prospect in terms of efficiency coming into the league. So I actually, I still believe in the player. I still think Bucky Evers probably a good runner, but he has something to prove after last year. The bigger issue is what his role is going to be. I think like you said, Theo, the buck signed Kenneth Gain, well gave him a decent contract. He's going to be involved and he's probably going to be involved in the passing game. So that takes away at least some passing game work from Bucking. We'll kind of see his beginning to the summer exactly what that split is going to look like.

And then I think he's probably going to lose goal line work to Sean Tucker. Bucking Irving last year did not have a single carry inside the five yard line. In Bucking Irving's 10 games, Sean Tucker had seven carries inside the five, Rashid White had two carries inside the five. Bucking, zero carries inside the five yard line. You go back to his, rookie year, he was not good at inside the five yard line, just four touchdowns on 13 carries inside the five. So I think this is a case where Irving's going to lead the team in touches, but he's going to lose passing down work. That's important. He's going to lose goal line work.

That's important. So I just think he's going to fail to deliver on his, his current ADP. Yeah. And it's like a lot of the, the, the, like, the Bucky Irving enthusiasts were like, when Rashad White moves on, it's going to be all this considerable volume as a pass catcher. it's going to be all his. And Kenneth Gainwell had 73 catches last year. And people are not even talking about that. 73 receptions, three touchdown grabs, and then you enter free agency

and you choose to go to Tampa Bay. My feeling is Kenneth Gainwell was told this is what your role is going to be. Bucky Irving, we saw the steam when Zach Robinson was hired and he sort of said he can do all the Bijon Robinson stuff. Like that's cool, Zach Robinson, but you've also got this guy who had 73 catches last year.

So I'm completely with you. And I look at some of the running backs going behind Bucky Irving. I think I might like dusty old David Montgomery to potentially score just as many points. And then I look if I'm chasing an upside player, Cam Scadaboo, if healthy, Quinshaun Jutkins, if healthy. There's some interesting options where you can go wide receiver in that range Irving's being selected at and then find running back a little bit later. I mean, I can get Trayvion.

I can get Quinshawn Judkins 13 picks lower than Bucky Irving. I mean, I'm in there. So I'm with you on that one. I think it gets people very annoyed because Bucky Irving, I think a year ago, was looked as a foundational piece to dynasty rosters. Not sure it's going to be there. Talking about a foundational dynasty piece, last year we were burned by drafting wide receiver 2s early in redraft.

And a lot of these guys steam up in Dynasty, and then you see them steam up in the best ball and redrafts. streets. Last year was certainly Brian Thomas Jr. failed miserably as a one-two-turn type selection. Ladd McConkey failed miserably as a second round selection. And then of course

Malik neighbors got hurt. We're going to give him a pass. But this year, the number one year-two wide receiver has been Teteroa McMillan. He's going off the board as wide receiver 14 on underdog, similar range in FFC. And then

in Dynasty, Jared, Tetero McMillan is wide receiver nine on keep trade cut. So the market is steaming him up in all formats. Where are you at on him? Yeah, and Dynasty, I'm totally fine with McMillan because I believe in the player. He was an awesome prospect, got the draft capital, had a really strong rookie season. In redraft for me, it's, again, it's not a McMillan problem. It's a Bryce Young problem, and it's a pass volume problem in Carolina. So Bryce Young has not reached 100,000. 190 passing yards per game in any of his three NFL seasons. One 90. You know, that, you know, that's, that's not a high number. He hasn't hit it yet. Six point zero yards per pass

attempt for Bryce Young through his, his three NFL seasons. That's 36 among 37 qualifying quarterback. So I just, I don't want my fantasy receiver tied to Bryce Young if I can help it. And then again, this pass volume in Carolina. So, you know, from week four, four on last year, that's really when they kind of, I think quasi gave up on Bryce Young as like the focal point of the offense and just went super run heavy from week four on last year the panthers were 24th in pass rate they were 30th in neutral pass rate 30th in pass rate 30th in pass rate over expected and you know unless you believe brys young's going to figure it out in year four which i don't i think carolina is going to continue to want to lean on the running game this season and you know at least be a balanced offense potentially

be a run leaning offense like they were you know again over the final you know 13 or so games last year so just when you when you you know plug in the numbers for this panther there's offense again unless you think Bryce young is going to get to you know 220 230 passing yards per game it's tough to get McMillan up to where his ADP is like you said the wide receiver 14 in ADP he comes in at wide receiver 21 in our half PPR rankings yeah and if you look at some of the wide receivers going right around tetrault Mcmillan you've got guys like Devontah smith who could be in store for an awesome season when AJ Brown has traded chris salave had a hundred receptions last year we really like

the Kellanmore offense and and a law-based potential this year, as long as he stays healthy. And then McMillan's going ahead of like T. Higgins, who T. Higgins could smash this year if Joe Burrow stays healthy. So like it just feels like an elevated cost for McMillan. And if I want to chase a little bit of year two wide receiver upside, I can get a Mecca, egg-buka seven spots lower.

I actually think if I'm chasing it, Egbuka gives me maybe a higher ceiling outcome because the quality of the quarterback play with Baker Mayfield and offense that I think I could lean into a little bit more. more. So I love McMillan. He's a player that I rank very highly in Dynasty. And he's a player that I have a ton of exposure to in Dynasty. I don't think that's going to be the case for me this year in redraft and in best ball when it's all said and done. So I'm with you on that one. DJ Moore. There's been a ton of steam with DJ Moore. We've had a long trend of wide receiver gets traded,

wide receiver smashes in fantasy. We saw it last year with George Pickens. This year, Jalen Waddle. and DJ Moore. It's sort of an easy argument to say that these guys in these new situations are going to have these great seasons. The market has steamed DJ Moore up. Obviously, the Josh Allen effect. He's up to wide receiver 27 on underdog. Yeah, and he's wide receiver 32 for us. And my biggest concern with DJ Moore is, I'm just not sure how good he is anymore. If you look at last year, 76 wide receivers with 50 plus targets, he was 60th among those 76 in yards per route run. He was 55th in PFF receiving grade. Moore's actually posted career lows now in both of those metrics. Receiving grade and yards per outrun in two straight seasons. So this actually

goes back to 2024 as well. You look at some of the fantasy points data stuff that I love to look at. DG Moore was 35th in fantasy points separation score again among 76 wide receivers. He was 37th among those 76 in win rate. So listen, he's like he's like 28 or 29 years old. So maybe he bounces back, you know, in a new environment in Buffalo here. But I'm just, I'm not willing to go all in on that. And then you just look at this bill's offense. I mean, this is a run leaning offense. And it's leaned even further that direction under Joe Brady, the last two years with Brady as

offensive coordinator. The bills have been 26th and then 25th in past attempts. I don't think that's going to change significantly this season. They're still going to lean on James Cook and Josh Allen's legs. And I talked about liking Dalton Kincaid. I know Cleo Shakir is not exciting, but he's just that, like, reliable slot receiver that's going to remain involved. So I just, I don't see more getting to the 25, 26 percent target share that he, he has in a few seasons, including, you know, back with Joe Brady and Carolina.

I think he's going to be more of like a, you know, soft leader of the passing game where he's seeing, you know, 20, 21, maybe 22 percent of the target. So, you know, projecting him that way again, he comes in, you know, five or six spots overvalued based on his current ADP. So you talk about DJ more. You talk about Dalton Kincaid. Obviously, Josh Allen's going to come in towards the very top of your projections. James Cook, RB5. We're not talking about him as undervalued or overvalued. Is he valued correctly in this RB5 range?

Yep. I haven't read around ADP. And he was a guy I was, I was low on last year, which was obviously a mistake. And I was low on it because he was so efficiency fueled in 2024, right? Like the touchdown rate was insane. last year his production basically matched the usage. He got that contract extension from Buffalo. They turned him into a workhorse.

I think Cook is properly valued at cost right now. Yeah, it's a big, it's a big like price correction for James Cook, but I think it's a correct one. I'm going to be talking about him with Scott Barrett this week on School of Scott and sort of the upside case of what Cook could deliver this year. Really excited about him. Final player that we're going to talk about, again, another year two guy. everybody wants pieces of the Mike McDaniel offense and

Ronde Gadsden has steamed up to tight end 10 overall on underdog. Yeah, I don't get this one. I have I've drafted like no Arronda Gadsden at this cost yet. And maybe it burns me again. I see the upside. There is stuff to like about him as a player and there's probably going to be some value to be had from this Chargers offense. But I mean, let's look back at what Gadsden did last year. He had two top 10 weekly finishes last year. And I know it was,

was a tight end one finish and a tight end four finish. So he had two big games. I feel like everyone's kind of clinging to those games, remembering those games and, you know, and kind of dreaming about that upside. But that was it. He had two top 10 finishes. It was not a top 10 fantasy tight end in any of his other games. You look at kind of where he ranked in some efficiency stuff. 31st among 49 tight ends and targets per outrun. 17th among those 49 in yards per outrun. So nice, but nothing like dominant. And they just, you know, he's this guy was a, he was a fifth round pick. right like and again he he was a pass first a catch first tight end some again things to like about him but now in this brand new offense under macdano since mcdaniel arrived the charges have added

charlie coler they've added fullback alec ingold and no those guys aren't going to be fantasy factors but they they could steal snaps from irondi gadsden who is not a good blocker he's not going to be out there you know every snap he's going to be out there in passing situations but you know is he going to lose too many snaps to those other guys so i have some playing time concerns here for a Ronda Gets and checks in at tight end 15 for us. And if he was tight on 15 and ADP, I'd be taking plenty of them because then I see the upside. But to me, at tight on 10, he's priced pretty close to his fantasy ceiling. And actually I think it could trend upwards. I know we've had some positivity with George

Kittle and and the 49ers brass is sort of saying he could be there for week one. I'm not buying that at all. So I think there's a chance that gets and flips George Kittle moves up to tight end nine. This Chargers offense, again, I want lots of pieces of it, but I think Mike McDaniel effect is real. We've also heard reports this week that the Chargers have been linked to David and Joku. They're going to be in a lot of 12. Gadsden's like obviously a very talented player. You saw what a smash week could look like for him, but is there going to be consistency in this offense? I think there's a lot of question marks with L.A.

So again, if you love Gadsden, you love Hampton, you like McConkey, just get yourself some Justin. Herbert because if this offense explodes, Justin Herbert's going to explode. And he's also got a really solid floor as a really solid fantasy option as long as his offensive line stays healthy. Jared, this was awesome today. Break it down once again where people can find your work. Everything's on draft sharks. Again, I've been grinding away at those projections for the past, you know, week now kind of with the post draft up say. So check those out. Those are good to go. Again, the draft war room, if you're drafting, check that out. I use it for every draft I do. And then we're going to start to pump out our team previews at this point, which, you know, are kind of in-depth breakdowns of all these teams, all these fantasy relevant players.

Those are going to start to hit the site later this week. Yeah, highly recommend all of Jared's work. It's absolute fire. Make sure you check out my previous episodes, Fantasy Football Daily. Dropped one with Evan Silva the other day. That was great. I have J.J. Zacharisen coming back on to break down some of his rookie favorite landing spots. We're going to see that a little later this week right here.

And then School of Scott. Scott Barrett and I have a bunch of really cool stuff plan. You looked at Jared's projections. We're going to look at Chris Wex over at Fantasy Points. And Scott and I are going to start to talk about some of these Dark Horse League winners, guys where their ADP is shaping up where they could absolutely smash. So stick with us here, Fantasy Points YouTube. Make sure you're checking out Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube for all my Dynasty content.

And Fantasy Points, we're dropping new articles, a lot of free stuff, as well as our updated projections and amazing tools. Stick us here at Fantasy Points. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season. 300 favorite albums with James Campion. I don't think there's an album I know better front to back. I learned how to play guitar to a lot of these songs. If I could pick one record to hand someone and say this is what it feels like to be a woman, it would be this record.

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