Fantasy Football Daily - Super Bowl 57 Prop Betting Show | Two-Point Stance Podcast

Episode Date: February 7, 2023

Super Bowl 57 is here and that means it's time to bet props!  The Super Bowl is always the most fun game to bet with the deepest pool of props.  We're talking with FantasyPoints.com betting analyst Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) about his favorite plays for the Chiefs vs Eagles.   We also have a fun listener contest where you can win a FREE subscription to Fantasy Points!  See notes below.   Two-Point Stance Super Bowl LVII Prop Contest: https://t.co/KCSMl1X3gp   Fantasy Points Prop Bet Contest Sheet: https://t.co/loMudhho6v   Follow the show on Twitter:  https://twitter.com/DrakeFantasy  https://twitter.com/FG_Dolan  https://twitter.com/FantasyPts   FantasyPoints.com is running its 30% off 2023 early bird special.  Get in now for the lowest prices of the season!  This offer ends on Super Bowl Sunday. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. All across the fantasy universe, you are looking live at FantasyPoint.com and the two-point stance. Welcome in, everybody. I am Brian Drake. You can follow me on Twitter. Drake Fantasy. We got a big show for you today. Big time because we're talking Super Bowl and we're talking betting. So I bring in my co-host, Joe Dolan, you follow him at FG underscore

Dolan. Joe, we've got a special guest here. We know him at lovingly as the grinder, but this is a guy who's going to help us win some cash on Super Bowl Sunday. Introduce our very special guest, if you may. So Tom, who's a much bigger radio star than either you or I, because he hops on on John Hanson's morning show and he gets, Tom, who is that? You get Judith Priest? Is that? Yep, Judas Priest playing the grinder. Um, every Thursday morning. Get the intro music. That's Tom Brawley, who's, who's our head of betting content over at FantasyPoint.com. Um, also was in my wedding, a good friend of mine. So, uh, we're, we're, we're bros. And I, like, here's what we're going to talk about today. I'll let you introduce it. You are the host, uh, Drake. So I'll let you introduce it.

but we're going to be talking not just prop betting on this show, but a way for you to involve everybody at your Super Bowl party in a prop bet contest that's way more interactive and way more fun, though I guess not as easy to run as the old Super Bowl squares pool. Absolutely. And in the show notes, guys, if you're on our YouTube page and why aren't you, just search fantasy points on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. look in the show description.

I've got links in there for you. One will link you back to the FantasyPoints.com article. The other will link you to our show contest. And it's going to be such a fun time here. Let me read the rules to you guys what we're going to do here. So there's a number of questions. I think there's 36 questions in all. And what you're going to do is answer each question.

You're going to have to like book out like two hours to fill out this form. You're going to really dive in there, dig in, study up, 36. questions. This is, this is not your average quiz from, you know, back in high school. And we're going to have Joe put his professor hat on. He's going to be grading these things. Yeah, I am. So let me introduce this just the way, like, this is something that like literally, Tom, I found our first one. It was for Super Bowl 50. You and I were like, ah, we're going to a Super Bowl party. What's a way to like involve prop bets, you know, for the, for the party and people can be interested. And we decided to put together this contest. Now, there is one thing that makes

our contest a little bit different than some of the ones out there, not all of them. But Tom, when we were putting this together, we realized, well, unfortunately, there's a lot of the places that do these prop bet contests just have either or. And it's whoever gets the most questions right. But if anybody who does prop bets obviously knows, not every outcome is an equal weight outcome. That's why you bet props that are, Tom, you're going to talk maybe about a long shot prop that you like for the Super Bowl.

That's why you bet props that are 40 to 1 because it's fun. I, for the Bronco Seahawks Super Bowl, I won safety to be the first score of the game at 60 to 1. So like, you know, you can't just say, oh, I'm going to pick safety to be the first score of game and get one point. That's not what we do. We assign different point levels to these questions. So Tom goes in and Tom, talk about your process. You go through and you basically take the odds using the implied odds and you translate that to a point value for the contest.

Yeah, it's kind of like if you do any kind of like parimutual betting where you're like betting on the ponies, there's a favorite. You know, you're not. you bet a little bit, you know, you bet 10 bucks on that. And if they're plus 100, you're only going to get a $10 return. But if you bet the long shot, who's 50 to 1, you put that $10 down, you make $500 off of that. So that's, that was the thought process on it, like, hey, let's reward people for taking shots on, you know, the more difficult props.

And that also helps us to, you know, put more long shots into this, into this betting system. So, yeah, I use the, I look at the odds and I come up with the point system, you know, based on the odds, the, basically the odds of the, the outcomes actually happening. So if you want to play it safe and take all one point questions on all 36, there's a chance you might do pretty decent and you'll finish in the top 15, you know, the top 10, top 15%, but you're probably unlikely to win the poll. you're going to have to take a couple shots. You know, you're going to take your shots somewhere with this type of system. It's like a tournament pool. Sometimes, you know, you've got to pick a long shot. You've got to pick that 15 to upset a two to move on to win that office pool.

So the winners of this contest, you're going to accumulate the most points. So you want to take some of those calculated risks on some of the lower likelihood events. For instance, if you get one eight point answer correctly, that obviously is equivalent to eight one point answers correctly. So guys, why are we? talking about this because we are going to give away a fantasy points.com subscription to one of the listeners of this show, the two-point stance. We love you. We thank you. You're following us here on YouTube. You're listening to the podcast, wherever podcasts are found. And what exactly does that entail, Joe? Okay. So first and foremost, here's what we're going to do. Number one,

we are giving away one fantasy point subscription. We're also giving away two and three fantasy point subscription. So for the top three finishers in the contest, by the way, it is linked in the show notes down below on YouTube. It's a Google form. All you do, you put in your email address, you put in your name, and you fill out a Google form, like a multiple choice test. And each question has a point value. And then I'm going to grade them early next week. The top three point finishers will get a fantasy point subscription. The first place finisher, we'll get an all-access subscription. You'll get everything we have to offer. For those of you who finish second and third, you get a fantasy point standard subscription for free. If you're already a standard subscriber, we upgrade you to premium. And if you already have premium, because you're taking advantage of our super-er- You get Adam Kaplan's home phone number. Yeah, yeah, I'll give you Adam Kaplan's home phone number. That's exactly right. I'll do, I have an additional. If you finish in dead last, you take all the long.

shots and they all miss. I'll give you this Antonio Brown signed autograph picture here. So only if you want it, only if you want it, but if you finish in dead last, I'll give you that. Where'd you get that? That was, so my mother works for, she volunteers at St. Vincent DePaul, and she gets some random stuff taken into the Safe Vincent DePaul sometimes. And she will not be putting an Antonio Brown autograph up for sale. It's a St. Vincent DePaul. So she always gives me any like leftover, funny Pittsburgh memorabilia. So the booby prize is an Antonio Brown autograph, one of the greatest fantasy receivers of all time.

So there you go. And now disgraced. Let's say, guys, you don't win any of those prizes, but you still want to get in over at fantasy points.com because we've got incredible content just from the Senior Bowl this week. Brett Whitefield and the guys. You want the guru, John Hanson's rankings. You want the grinder Tom Brawley's content all season long.

Scott Barrett, at Graham Barfield, the cast of thousands at fantasy points.com, well, we're still giving you 30% off until Super Bowl Sunday. Lock in your FantasyPoint.com subscription, folks, this is not brain surgery, 30% off. In this day and age, this economy, save yourself some money, go get that early bird special at FantasyPoints.com. All right, what do you guys say we get into some of these and give our opinion of what's going to happen?

Yeah, let's do it. I mean, we put this together. Might as well, you know, I hope. hope nobody copies my answers. Although I will say, I put this together for the last eight years. I've never, I don't think I've ever finished in the top three in this poll. So the brains behind the poll, you know, has never won. So maybe you want to go the opposite of what I'm doing this week. I've got to do better than on my Grammy projections because I didn't know a single person nominated for any award. All right. Let's go. Length of the National Anthem by Chris Stapleton. I've heard of him. I don't know any of his music, but I've heard of Chris Stapleton.

Yes, you do. You know some of this. There is no way you haven't heard Tennessee whiskey. There is no chance you haven't heard that song. It's funny that I'm a whiskey salesman also. There you go. He's countries, you know, broken into the mainstream. Good hat, I believe. Yes, he's got a cat to ask a cat. All right. So under 125 seconds, that's 204.5. That'll get you a point or over. So really, you're just playing over under here. It's not going to get you a big advantage. Over one point, under is one point. Have you guys done any research?

Have you gone on YouTube and looked up Chris Stapleton and seen some of his other national anthems? Tom, I feel like you've done this. I just looked at, I have the results from the last couple of years here. We've had a run of three out of the last four years where it's been an over. Now, if you're looking, you're thinking, oh, country guy. Eric Church was a couple years ago. He wasn't over. That was with Jasmine Sullivan. They did over two minutes and 17 seconds. Looking back, oh, Luke Brian was right around here at 204, same time in Super Bowl 51. That was an under. So if you're looking for, you know, the classification of a country singer, we have a couple different results here in recent years. And let me also tell you how they score this. It is not from when,

music starts. It is from the first vocal note to the last vocal note. So if you do a Christina Gallera, you know, vocal gymnastics of, oh, they're going to start the clock. This is like, honestly, the funniest part is like, this is like the most stressful bet. Like, because you're sitting there at the beginning and then like, who is it? Was it Gladys Knight last year? She started real quick and then like, slow it down. Slow it down. Yeah, it was, it was fantastic. But, but yeah, so Chris Stapleton, normally, Tom, I will say it kind of feels like Friday, Saturday, sometimes even Sunday morning, there starts to be a little, like, move when people, maybe people inside the building hear the sound check or something like that. Yeah, this has been one that leaks a little bit in recent years. This is why a lot of the state, you know, stateside books, you know, they're not allowed to list this. It actually has to be a competition on the field for it to be graded.

But I think it was the Super Bowl down in Tampa Bay. I think it was the Eric Church one. You know, there was just some random news reporter outside of Raymond James. And he just recorded it. He, you know, and he had a clock on it. And it was over the, a lot of time. So, yeah, there's a chance that information might leak out on this one. So you might want to, you know, we always, you know, if you have time on Sunday to fill out the prop sheet,

maybe it's best then because maybe you'll get a little bit of insider information on some of these you know at least these artist performance type of props i'm going with the under joe how about you i i feel like stapleton's a no nonsense guy on yeah that's i oh geez i don't want to be uh an agreement here uh all across the board but i have to i think i don't think stapleton's going to really drag this out all right we won't do every single one on here guys right we'll just kind of pick and choose or do you want to do every one i will say Let me point one out because Tom sent me the sheet. I was at the Bruce Springsteen concert last Friday night,

and I was literally inside State Farm Arena when Tom sent the first run through the sheet. For number two, coach shown first during the national anthem. Tom, for the last like five years, we've had this one. And I'm pretty sure two years. And Tom sent me the original, and it was Andy Reed, Nick Siriani split screen. And I said, Tom, I really think we've no action this like three years in a row. They didn't show any coach during the national anthem, not during the broadcast, during the national anthem. So I had to throw a neither option in there.

I like it. I like it. Yeah. So maybe that's a little bit of a hint to people who are listening. The neither has won the last couple of years. And honestly, it wasn't even an option for us. Yeah, it was been a no action. So I like your additional little choice there.

Yeah, I would like to have multiple choice in a lot of these. But we do like to ease into it right at the beginning. That's why we have the overrun during the national anthem. We have the coin toss. Everybody loves the coin toss. Yeah, that's one of the first one that everybody can get behind. So, but yeah, that one, that one, the coach is one. They like to show a lot of the singers and a lot of players.

And we just haven't seen a lot of the coaches on screen during the national anthem for some reason. I will take Andy reading that. I think they will show both. I think they go big red first. That? I would agree. I would agree because you have the factor, him being a former. you know, Eagles coach there.

You think that he's going to be probably getting a little bit more of the publicity this week. So, and he's the more notable coach as well. Sure. Siriani's certainly had a great season here of one of the front runners for the coach of the year. But, you know, everybody, you know, everybody knows Andy Reid. So I agree with you there. Maybe Andy Reid is the lean there on that one.

People love betting the coin toss. I don't know why, but they do. Tails never fails. I'm sure there is a great. You can go back and look up the history of Super Bowl coin tosses. I'm going to take tails on this. I'm a tails guy as well. I'll go heads because everybody picks tails.

Either way, they're deferring to the second half. Yeah, that's, yeah, that's, uh, yeah, it's still actually the last two have been heads. Yeah, I have it up here. Four out of the last five have been heads. So it's, it's, it's. Oh, tales is due. Tails is due. That's right.

That's right. If you are looking about the heads or tails, I would recommend going to Draft Kings and not some of these other books. They are offering plus 100 on both sides. So if you're one of those types of people that needs to have some action on the coin toss right out of the gates, make sure you go to a book that's offering plus 100 on those sides. Now, this next question, number four on the score sheet, again, go over to our show notes. It's on fantasy points.com.

You can get the prop bet sheet. Number four is really interesting, and this is a way you can differentiate yourself if your number hits. First accepted penalty. So you get a three-pointer for like an off-sides, neutral zone, false start one of those deals. Three points for a holding or illegal block. Then we start kicking it up a notch. Unnecessary roughness gets you six points. A PI is eight.

Intentional grounding delay a game is a 10-pointer. I love taking that 10-pointer. delay a game, maybe early on. There's some crowd noise, some jitters. I think that's a great way to differentiate itself. I think pass interference is almost what you have to take also. I think everybody's going to take pass interference here because they're going to be like, well, both of these teams like to throw the ball, you know, like,

I think that's what everybody's going to take. And this time, very often this one almost decides the pool. Tom, I think it was a couple years ago that shitty Rams Patriots game were like there was no action on half of these things because. because the game was so bad. That, like, I think somebody who entered the pool picked, like, pass interference and that, and nobody else scored any points because the game was so bad. I think it was actually, I think that was an intentional ground.

Wasn't there one year, Brady had an intentional grounding where he threw it to the middle of field really early. That was against the Giants in Super Bowl 46 because that was one of the Super Bowls where safety was the first point scored. Yeah, that's right. Because he got it in the end zone, yeah. But yeah, I'm with you there, guys, but, you know, holding illegal block and not as many points. But if there's any kind of return on the first play, that's a good opportunity for that to happen.

You know, we see, you know, we saw at the end of the Cincinnati Kansas City game where we have a play that goes out of bounds and unnecessary roughness. So it can go a number of ways here. But, yeah, pass interference might be an interesting way to go, especially if Kansas City might get them all first. Yeah, I've seen some great stats on Philadelphia, by the way. Since week 18, they've had 95 pass blocking snaps, zero pressures, zero sacks allowed. And also, it might be since Siriani gave up his play calling. I want to say Jeff McLean, maybe the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote this, is since Siriani gave up his play calling duties,

the Eagles have not had to burn a timeout for not having a play, like a delay of game coming down the line. So that's a related prop here a little further down the board. I like that. So, all right, here we go. Player to score the first touchdown. Eagles wide receiver running back, that'll get to three points. Eagles tight end QB, three and a half. I like that lean a lot with the way Jalen Hurts can run the football. You get the same three and a half points for Travis Kelsey or Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs RB and wide receiver. If either team's defense or special team scores the first points, you get eight points there. Joe, you're going to get a little. little frisky here and maybe go defense. So Super Bowl 50 the first time we, we ran this pool for our friends. The Denver defense scored the first touchdown. That was a pool decider. You remember that, Tom, that that ugly Panthers Broncos games. So again, you want to take a calculated risk with some of these. Now, if you take all the risks, you might hit one or two, but if you're giving away easy points, you know,

it really becomes an interesting and an interesting strategy. I would like to see what happens if somebody were to take all the big, all the big money ones and just set. They end up with Antonio Brown. Yeah. Or end up with the premium subscription. So, um, yeah, that's right. There's no middle ground, maybe.

Yeah, I like that. Go big or go home there is what you're saying. Yeah, like, whenever I play in a playoff contest, I'm like, I want to finish first or last. I don't want to finish in the middle, you know, like when I'm doing and playoff fantasy. Like finishing in the middle doesn't get anything. Dre, I think most people's first instance here is going to lean to Eagles quarterback tight end

because of Jalen Hertz. Yeah. I think by the book, Kelsey is the slight favorite to be the first touchdown score. But Jaylon Hertz and Miles Sanders are like neck and neck. And, you know, second play, I think it's plus 650 and they're plus 700. But, you know, if you take the wide receiver there, you also get A.J. Brown, Devante Smith. You know, you don't, like, have another out with Dallas Goddard with the tight end. So I can, I tried to balance them there.

But, yeah, that's why they're all pretty equal. We don't typically see that. But the top of the first touchdown odds board is pretty even across the, across it with Kelsey Sanders and Jalen Hertz at the very top. I like question number seven. happen first. It's only a one pointer either way, a sack or a touchdown because these quarterbacks run around a lot. So you could get technically a sack, right? If the guy, maybe, we see it all the time with you. So they run out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage or something like that. And, you know, I think this Eagles pass rush is going to get all up in Patrick

Mahomes business. So I would take sack on what will happen for a sack or touchdown. Both of these teams stack the quarterback. Both of these teams score a lot of touchdown. So even odds here is about right. Oh. Drake, let me throw this out here, everybody, by the way. If you're not looking at the YouTube, which does have a, which we do have a visual of the questions, I also threw in a PDF into the Fantasy Points article so you can run this pool at your Super Bowl party. I threw a PDF in.

Tebrough and I will get an answer key up Monday or Tuesday, and then you can pay out at your Super Bowl party. It'll be a lot of fun. You can score it yourself as well. But some of these ones, like we're going to get to the Rihanna one. some of them you might need a little bit of a close call from the from the gambling books. That Rihanna one. Don't ask me to score that one. I don't even know most of the songs. So I'm pretty out of time.

I know the favorite though. So that's, please don't stop the music. I can even know that one. I watched the replay of Prince's Purple Rain from the thunderstorm at the Super Bowl a few years ago. God, that was fantastic. All right. That's why we did add an ademptive. on that question. That's question 13, which of these, we changed it so which of these songs is played first. We always used to have it worded just what song is played first. And then, you know,

I think one of the years, the, one of the songs in the field didn't actually get played. So that's why it's the songs in the field here. So that's why we word that question a little bit differently on number 13. All right. Question number eight, team to call the first time out in the game. Nobody uses timeouts as frivolously as Andy Reid early in a game. This is a slam dunk, pick the Chiefs, get the point. Yep. And you had that note about, you know, no delay games here recently for the Eagles. So that's why this is usually one that I wait pretty evenly.

That's a one for one side, one point for one side and one for the other. But this year, it's a little different with Andy Reed and Nick Serionni involved. So I'll kind of with you there. I'm going to, I'll probably lean towards the tree. Chiefs getting that point. All right. First player to throw an interception. Mahomes gets your point in a half.

Jalen hurts for two points. No interceptions is good for three points. And any other player, maybe there's a halfback option pass or some kind of weirdo play. That'll get you 10. I'm not sure we see that broken out in the Super Bowl. You think we see another Philly special from the birds this year? I really hope they don't do it just because like it feels like it's destined to fail if they do.

Like it feels like it feels like I mean if they do it and it works it might be the biggest freaking hog swinging move of all time. But I really don't think the Eagles are going to pull out a Philly special in this game. You don't want to see you don't want to see Kenny Gainwell flip to Jack Stole and throw it back across to Jalen Hertz or maybe Gardner Minchew. The thing about the Philly special is Trey Burton was a quarterback in college. Yeah. So like he was an accomplished pass or like I mean not to.

like an NFL level, but I don't know if they have that guy on the team right now. I mean, Nick Fools look like a wide receiver too. I mean, he could. No, but this one's interesting one. That's always a prop this time of year is, you know, will there be over two and a half players that attempt to pass in the Super Bowl? And looking at it this year, these are two teams that, you know, they don't use a lot of trickery, a lot of guys throwing outside passes.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but what do you got, Patrick Mahal, on one side, you know, why would you have, you know, Travis Kelsey throwing a pass whenever you have Patrick Mahomes that can do it just fine. So yeah, you never know. You never know. That's why it's tricky, you know, you never expect it. But these are two teams that really haven't pulled out, you know, those type of plays too much this season. A couple of questions then about some challenges and replays. The result of the first coaches challenge, booth review doesn't count. Will it be overturned? If it stands, you get a point in a half, or if there's no coaches challenges, you get two points. I don't think that we're going to get the no coaches

challenge. I think, hmm, if I'm going to bet on this, guys, I'm going to say the play stands. There's a, there's a lot of cameras here at the Super Bowl. I mean, you can get an angle on everything. I don't know. I think I'm going to stay with the play stands. Yeah, and then the booth review doesn't count for obvious reasons for this because you have to imagine if the booth initiates the review, it probably has a better chance of being overturned. So that's why we'd go with booth review doesn't count for these. Yeah, that's, I've been waiting. I'm actually kind of waiting to see if other books have one. Draft Kings has a similar prop to this. It's a plus 110 for the play to basically stand for a coach to lose the first challenge.

with these expedited reviews that they've been, coaches have been doing now, not that the coaches have been doing, the officials from New York, the command center, wherever they're at. They've been taking a lot of the obvious challenges out of the picture here. So that's why I'm thinking the play stands

might be a pretty good bet in the prop sheet. And I'm waiting to see if maybe it does come out, maybe a little bit higher. It was plus 110 at Draft Kings. I'm hoping maybe one of these other books puts out a similar. prop and maybe it's a little bit higher because I think I was looking at the numbers. I don't have them in front of me either, but I think Siriani's like two out of six or,

and Andy Reid, he'll have the frivolous timeouts and the frivolous challenges as well. So yeah, I'm with you there with the play stands at one and a half. I think you have to take the yes on question 12, which is will any touchdowns be overturned by replay, meaning they're taken off the board? A no is only one point, but a yes is two and a half. And we see that a lot in the NFL. Guy doesn't get a foot down or we think he's in and he didn't cross the line. I'm going to lean yes.

What about you, Joe? Yeah, this is one where I typically say put yes for this one. Maybe I should go with the opposite this year because I can't remember the last time this happened in the Super Bowl. Maybe I'm wrong. But I think a lot of people are going to say yes to this particular question. So you also have to try to like get in people's heads and differentiate yourself. you're like, well, that one seems really possible for two and a half points. So maybe I'll just go and maybe take the easy one point answer.

Yeah, that's good thinking. That's an angle that people don't really look about, you know, at these polls. It's on, you know, sometimes you've got to play it like DFS. You want to go away from the obvious answers here. So, yeah, maybe I will go for the no here with one point. But yeah, two and a half points for a touchdown over turn. We do think there's going to be a lot of points in this one. 50 and a half is now the total.

So there could be six or seven touchdowns in this game. So there could be some opportunities. So I could go either way on this one. But maybe I'll go with the no there to go away from the herd, Joe. You're listening to the two point stance podcast, part of fantasy points.com. I'm Brian Drake alongside Joe Dolan and our special guest, Tom Barley. We may look like three swifties, but we also get into the Rihanna business here. And this next few questions are about the half-time.

performer herself. Which of these songs, Joe, is played first? Please don't stop the music. This is what I came for. Diamond. I don't even know any of these songs. I act like I used to be a radio game. You know, you know umbrella. You know umbrella. You think umbrella. Okay, I got that one. Where have you been and stay? By the way, Joe, did you get the text when you sang Fleetwood Mac on our opening show? And I was driving around and it came up on my serious XM dashboard and I screenshot it and sent it. to you. Yes, I did get that text. A little bit of serendipity. By the way, we added this little, we added this little disclaimer to this question because a couple of years ago, the weekend performed, and if you'll remember, the choir started singing a song before the weekend came on stage. And I think, Tom, you and I and the books determined that the first song that the weekend himself performed was actually the winner. But I wanted to clear up some confusion there. If Rihanna comes out to one of her songs that's on this list, and it's just like the beat of the song, she has got to be performing the song herself. She has got to be singing it. So that clears up any confusion.

This question has been a pain in our butts over the year. So we've added all kinds of addendums to this question. I think we finally nailed it down, you know, by making it confined to this field question, which of these songs is played first, and where the artist actually has to sing it. So this is one that's moved a lot. BetOnline is kind of the offshore book that

has lines for these. There's been a lot of money on Don't Stop the Music. That was a plus 500 on Friday when I initially did this prop sheet and now it's minus 140 to be the first song. So I think there might be some inside information on that one. Do you have a favorite

Rihanna song, gentlemen? Oh, I've got to go umbrella because that's one of the only ones I know. She's a popular New York. And Broly is an umbrella in England. So I got to go with my namesake here. Get your Brolly out. I always love that tweet. So I can start calling you Tom Rihanna then.

Rihanna is a popular New York Times crossword puzzle answer because her fans call her RRI, like RRIRI. And it fits very nicely in the corners of a crossword puzzle. So there you go. Look at you. If you got mine, R-W-W-R-W-E. Yeah. I love that you guys even threw in an outfit primary color.

Will it be black or other? Yeah, we got to get the women involved in this. They love the halftime special. So I try to get a couple of the halftime questions in there. Might not be for us guys that watch like all 285 games. Oh, yeah. Rihanna is so hard to look at. That's true.

Remember our boy, our boy Geiger was Shakira. Oh, we're honest, no, Shakira, but I think she'll do. Who's kicking the longest field goal here, guys? Is it Harrison Butker for a point, or is it Jake Elliott for a point and a half? Or do they tie and maybe there's no field goals? I'm going to say, I'm giving it to Big Leg Jake. Yeah, I'd like going for that extra half a point, too. Yeah, it's an extra half a point, but you also have to.

to keep in mind, Nick Siriani is incredibly aggressive on fourth downs. That's true, too. That's why it's weighted a little bit. Especially if they will go for those fourth and shorts, if it's say at the 30-yard line and that's fourth and two. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jalen Hertz keep the ball in those types of situations. So yeah, that's why that is, buoyed a little bit more towards the Eagles on that one. Which leads us to our next question, the shortest touchdown of the game.

Is it under a yard and a half for a point or over a yard. for a point and a half. You know if they're, the Eagles did a QB sneak on back-to-back plays in the NFC title game literally from like the three-yard line. I couldn't believe they were running the sneak from there. They ran it, they didn't get it, and they said, damn it, we're doing it again, and they scored. So they might do it from the 50 on Sunday.

It wouldn't shock me at all. What do you guys think? What are we going to get for the shortest touchdown? With the Eagles propensity to sneak the ball, under's the best bet here. Like with getting it down to the one. the under's the best bet i agree i agree um yeah nothing more to add there they'll they'll they'll finish the job at the one yard line so uh let's go with under one and a half though that that's

one i always take anyway that it seems that i don't have the numbers in front of me on that one but it it seems like under one and a half is usually the winner on that one all right let me skip around here we're going to get any defensive penalty uh penalties geez defensive touchdowns so are we going to get any defensive touchdowns special team scores or safeties. You get three points for a yes on this and only one for a no. We've had a couple of safeties since we've been running this poll. And Joe, as you said, to lead off a game. We had that nice prop at 50 to one on that one for the first score of the game to be a safety. So we have seen some defensive touchdowns, special teams touchdowns

and safeties, but I'm going to kind of go no on this one. We got two quarterback. are going to take care of the ball. It might have to be a fumble or, you know, something kind of weird. So I'm going to lean towards the no on that one. Joe, I love this one. This one screams Tom Brawley all day long. Question 20. Who will have more?

And again, there's no action on this. And you'll find out why if this, if something happens. Number one, Travis Kelsey catches. So what will happen more? Travis Kelsey catches or Rory, Macroarie, Roy birdies or better in the final round of the waste management open, which is also happening Sunday in Phoenix. Now, there's no action on this if Rory misses the cut. So is there a chance here, guys, that you can really get over on people who maybe don't follow golf or is there a chance?

I think Travis Kelsey catches seven, eight balls in this game. Do you think he can make seven or eight birdies in that final round? So here's a little story with this question. First and foremost, this is a jinx and a half because I can't tell you how many times we've had this question and the golfer in question did not make the cut. Number two, here is one. You can get a little bit of an edge. If Rory makes the cut and isn't like a leader and he's teeing off early on Sunday, you could wait a little bit. Ooh, is Rory hot? Like, oh, he's made a push. He's got six birdies in the first 12 holes, I'm going to take Rory and maybe the Eagles. So, like, there's a little gamesmanship you can have with this one, too.

Yeah, this was, we've really had trouble the first, I think it was like the first five or six years. I think we've had much better luck in the last year. And we even just like started getting better with golfers. Like, it was just like. We always use Ricky Fowler. Yeah, we always use Ricky and he always missed the damn cut. Oh, except he won the damn thing a couple of years ago. Yes, he did.

Like the year after we took him off the question, I think. Well, bubble Watson, forget it. Missed cut. We had Phil Mickelson one year. Missed cut. Like, we just kept going with like good golfers and they were all missing cuts. But anyway, I'm going to put all my money this week on Rory to make the cut. I don't see Rory

McElroy missing too many cuts. So I'm going to put my money on that. But I like Rory on this one. We've seen this tournament that it can be a birdie fest on Sunday. They set it up where you can really get after it. So I'll go with the extra point and a half. Maybe the birds can shut

down Kelsey a little bit. I love these next two questions. It's very straight to the point. Who's going to score more PPR fantasy points? Question 21, it's Travis Kelsey or it's A.J. Brown. And in question 22, it's Miles Sanders and Isaiah Pacheco. So I don't know if this has any, you know, lean on the game at all. But Travis Kelsey.

A.J. question in it. Yeah, Travis Kelsey, AJ Brown. Who's going to score more fantasy points in this game? I think this is a big Devontas Smith game, but it depends. If they play a lot of man, I also think AJ Brown can just eat in this contest against that young secondary. But we're talking props here. So Travis Kelsey, and I just said he's going to catch eight balls or AJ Brown, who I think could score two touchdowns. Oh, boy.

I'm going to, you know what? I'm giving it to Kelsey. Yeah, he's rightfully favored here. The Sanders Pacheco one's interesting. That could be decided by a touchdown. So I think that's a particularly interesting one. I think my favorite prop of the entire thing is coming up here soon. Oh, is that probably doing a really nice prop here.

Oh, you like that? I try to come up with one that's kind of like, storyline for the game. Exactly. I worked it in there. That would be question 24. A.J. Brown receiving yards. Is it closer to Jason Kelsey's jersey number of 62 or Travis Kelsey's jersey number of 87?

That is a fantastic prop. That's a fan. Is that one at a book, Tom? Or did you... No, I just came up with it. I was just looking for it. I'm like, looking at it, I'm like, I've got to get the Kelsey's into the prop pole here at some point.

And I was like, let's do something with their jersey number. So I was looking for something that might be around, you know, 70 to 75 in terms of a player prop. So A.J. Brown's number is out there. About 73 and a half. It's a little bit shaded towards Kelsey. But I know how these props. work. Everybody's going to come in and bet AJ Brown towards game day. So his,

his number is probably going to be up 74 and a half, 75 and a half by game day. So I figure that's right in that range where he can go, he's going to have a down game. You go with Jason Kelsey. He's going to have an up game. You go with Travis Kelsey with 87. So I have a little bit of fun with that prop. And we have all sorts of great props in here too, guys. who's going to score the most rushing yards, the most receiving yards. That's all the stuff you would generally think anytime you're betting a prop. Here's what I really like, Joe, is we're getting near the end. Final play of the game.

Is it a kneel down for a point, any other non-scoring play, or a field goal touchdown or extra point, which is worth six points? So are we walking it off? Right. This was a Dolan invention last year. I was like, I wanted to throw another question in there. And this one was like, essentially, is there going to be a walk off? kneel down is of course the favorite but uh man if you think this is going to be a close game

having a field goal or a touchdown is the last play of the game you know maybe tom i think uh you like you like the odds like just based on the implied odds of this game going to overtime i did i was just about to bring that up there was a there's a nice prop on fandol it was plus 1360 at the end of last week i think it's been bet down a little bit that that implies basically a 7% chance of overtime in the game. Just looking at numbers from the last two years, you know, games have gone to overtime about seven and a half percent of games. We have a total, a spread in this game that's one and a half. So I think we're probably going to see some more Chiefs money, I think closer to kick off here. I think people are going to jump on Patrick Mahomes.

If the injury report is good for the Chiefs. So I do think it could get close to a pick-em game in this one. So I think maybe if we get overtime, we're going to have probably, we'll have to end on a scoring field goal touchdown PAT. Maybe we need to add safety in there. Any kind of scoring play for that last play at six. So I'm going to root for overtime. So maybe I'm going to go with that six-pointer. Oh my gosh. I'll have a heart attack in this game. Yeah, sorry, guys. There's all, you know, who's going to cover the spread, the total points, but nobody cares about that. want to know the color of the Gatorade that's going on a coach. And I remember the Eagles, I believe in the NFC championship game. It was orange. No, no, no, no, no. No, wasn't orange.

I thought I saw Lane Johnson and AJ, but they had an orange one out. Oh, no, I've done my reconnaissance on this one. That was yellow, green, or lime, I'm pretty sure. That was Lane and Fletcher Cox, I believe, porner on Siriani. I must have, maybe they hit somebody else with one. Yeah, maybe. Well, that adds a little wrinkle to it that they have multiple colors. on the ready on the bench there. So I looked it up. I looked it up for the Chiefs as well, because we know they've been in the Super Bowl here recently. And they were an orange team. That's why I have the yellow green and line. Eagles are slight favorites here. So that's why it's two points. Orange is two and a half because that's been the color of choice for them. We know these

teams are all superstitious. We want to drink the same Gatorade. We want to give our coach the same Gatorade baths so that's why those two are the favorites in this one all right lastly guys there's more questions but i want to we'll keep this concise who is the super bowl MVP is it jelan hurts for a point and a half mahomes is a point in a half and you get the a j brown Travis kelsey for six any other eagle is seven any other chief not listed is nine I'm going to give you my answer he was activated from injured reserve today it's Clyde Edwards hilarious Clyde Edwards Halear is winning this prop because Move over, Pacheco.

If the Eagles lose the Super Bowl because Clyde Edwards O'Lare is the MVP, I am going to jump off the building. Let's just put it that way. Who do you guys like for the MVP? Well, I mean, my favorite long shot is Hassan Reddick. Yeah, I like that. I have a little bit of money on that one.

If there's, if there's, honestly, you know, the other Eagle not listed is interesting, because, Drake, you think it's a Devante Smith game, you know, there are some good Eagles because AJ Brown is listed in this question. So, like, if it's Devante Smith, you might think the Eagles, you know, I was reading a shield Capadio over at the, at the ringer today about, you know, the Chief's run defense and the Eagles ability to just like, hey, if all else fails, if Jalen's shoulder isn't looking great, we can just pound the shit out of the ball.

Like maybe Miles Sanders wins the MVP. like it so like i kind of like that other eagle not listed but of course here's the other problem with this you have to pick the winner of football game true i i i kind of like the i like the calcy brown one you get two good players here uh i think there's been a the last 10 years we've seen four players that haven't been quarterbacks win it we saw cooper cup do it last year with two touchdowns and eight catches, 92 yards. So we've seen some of these big-time receivers do it. And I do have a little bit money on Travis Kelsey.

He's plus 1,600 on Fandall to be the MVP. We've seen him have some blow-up games. 14 catches against the Jaguars a couple weeks ago. Four touchdown catch game on Monday night football earlier this season. So- I take this one because you get a player from each team. Yeah, that's why. That's why I did.

Tinker around with the points on this one. I had to lower it a little bit because you do have two options. You get a guy from each team, so maybe that spreads it out. But you know, whenever you're filling out the props sheet, you do want to have like a narrative in mind. It's like these same game parlays. You want to kind of correlate the stuff that you have. So maybe you don't want to do that. Maybe if you lean real heavily towards the Eagles side, you just keep loading up on all Eagle stuff. But I do like having that option of, you know, know, either Brown or Kelsey blown up in this game and get six points for that one. All right, guys, we're getting out of here.

Can I get your Super Bowl prediction? Our guest, Mr. Tom Brawley, follow him on Twitter at Tom Broley. Does great work over at FantasyPoints.com. Who's winning the Super Bowl, Tom? All right. I'm about to get booted off here. I have the Chiefs. I grabbed them plus two and a half.

Nice knowing to Tom. Thanks for your time. All right. I'm out of here. Here's my prediction. I'm going to make a complete ass of my. myself at my at my house. Are you having guest over this year?

Yeah, I'm going to try to drink a little less than last time. Well, good luck with that. That's easier said than done on Super Bowl Sunday. Yeah, I mean, like, look, the Eagles have, like, the nice thing about the Eagles is they have had two completely stress-free playoff games. That's true. I mean, I would love. You were doing the celebratory drinking by the third quarter in the first two games.

nothing more than like the Eagles to do to Mahomes what the Bucks did to him a couple years ago. Yes. And just like pressure the hell out of him and he can't do it all by himself. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think I cannot pick against the Eagles. I can't do it. But I do predict that I am going to be in intestinal distress during this game. That's my prediction.

Yeah. I'll make that prediction too, Joe, that this will not be an easy one like the first two playoff games. I say the Eagles win. They actually end up winning by 10 when. all else fails, the Eagles lean on the run game and they run it down people's throats and they take eight, nine minutes off the clock. And I think that's what they will end up doing in the second half here because they'll realize, eh, maybe we, you know, everything's not working the way we wanted to. And, uh, you know, then I will spend all the money I win in this pool on Eagles,

Super Bowl jerseys and shirts for my kids after the game. But a lot of fun here, guys. Remember, go over to fantasy points.com. Check out the show notes. We've got it listed in there. Uh, you can click the link. There, Joe has a PDF you can fill out at your home party. We're giving away subscriptions here to our listeners. And the link is in the show notes. If you want to win, we're giving away three top prizes here, three levels of fantasy points.com subscriptions.

And if you're the last, but naked last place, you're getting assigned Antonio Brown. It's actually very nice. It is. It's already reframed. I mean, it's perfect. Wow, you don't even have to get it. It's like on pawn stars. Oh, I got to put it in a frame.

No, you know, like. Already handled. Did somebody do like eight lines of coke off that in a Pittsburgh Goodwill or something? Yeah, like if you bring the, you bring the, on Pond Stars, you bring the original declaration of independence in there. And he's like, well, this is worth $75 billion. But I got to put it in a frame. I got to list it for auction. I'll give you $400 for it.

You know, like, so like, the Antonio Brown Boobie Prize is already framed. There you go. I mean, that's all the incentive to enter the contest now. Yeah, just go for all the long shots. And if you miss and you strike out, you get the booby prize. All right. Remember also get over to FantasyPoint.com. The 30% off early bird special ends on Super Bowl Sunday.

You don't want to miss that. You know you're going to need all the fantasy advice for the upcoming season. Get it for 30% off right now. No promo code needed. Fantasypoints.com. I can't beat it into your head enough, folks. This is a lot of fun, Tom. Thanks so much for your time.

Good luck, everybody out there in Fantasyland. And we'll see you next. week when I'll have my Eagles Super Bowl champion t-shirt on. All right, guys, take care. Good luck. At the secret. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform.

And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.