Fantasy Football Daily - Super Bowl Futures $100 Pick Your Poison + The First EVER Uwe von Schamann Reference in the History of Podcasting | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: February 20, 2025

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports. Play the Super Bowl contest here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/promos/super-bowl-lix-props-contest#/ Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today on the Fantasy Points Best Bet show, we look at the early odds for Super Bowl 60 and the winners of the 2025-26 Super Bowl. We'll also introduce an off-season game we're playing on the show, and we finally hear from you, the people, with the new Best Betts Hotline. Best Betts here, Joe Dolan. Tom Brawley, T-Bro. We look, the season's over. 24, 25 season is over. Super Bowl 59 is over. If you are watching on YouTube, you can see I got the little trolling hat for good friend Trey

who does not respect the Paisan, Nick Siriani. He doesn't respect him. Well, Nick Siriani could shove that in his face. He is a Super Bowl champion and a two-time NFC champion, and I think that is a wonderful thing to bring up here because on this program, we're going to be talking Super Bowl 60 futures. And we're talking the teams you were ranking at the top, middle, bottom of the board, teams maybe you can get a little bit of value on right now,

teams that you've already bet on, teams that we're going to recommend you bet on on this show. And I think that's important to discuss because if we did an offseason show at this point last year, you would have already given out a winner and a winner at by far the longest odds you were going to get them all season. So I want to talk about the Super Bowl, how you bet the Super Bowl this early in the offseason, and maybe some ways to kind of leverage that before we actually get into like the odds and the little game we're going to be playing on the show throughout the off season. Yeah, I bet your Eagles last year at this time right after Super Bowl 58 wrapped up odds for Super Bowl 59 came out. and I really liked the Eagles. They were 22 to 1 when I gave it out.

And by the time the season rolled around, I believe they were about 14 to 1. So we got a lot of value on them. A lot of people were thinking, they're cooked. They're, you know, they ended the season so poorly. They got, you know, wiped out by the Buccaneers and the playoffs. Lost all those games at the end of the regular season.

But I still saw a talented team. Of course, they still, you know, They continue to improve throughout the offseason. They get the big signing of Sequin Barclay. Awesome draft getting Quinnion Mitchell and Cooper DeGine, who ended up both of those guys making huge contributions during the Super Bowl. And because of those moves, they moved, you know, their odds shrunk. They went down to 12 to 1, 14 to 1 by the time the season started.

But I was able to get in early. And that's really what we're looking to do here. If you're looking to bet Super Bowl odds right now, you want to look for teams that you think are going to get, their odds are going to improve as the year moves along here. Maybe it's through the draft. Maybe they have a lot of salary cap. You know, they have wiggle room with salary caps.

So those are the type of teams we've got to be looking for at this time of the year. I'm not necessarily looking at the Philadelphia Eagles now heading into Super Bowl 60 because now they're at the top of the board at plus 650 plus 700. I don't, you know, their odds aren't going to significantly improve. They're not probably going to get to plus 500 or plus 400. So these teams at the top, I'm not really looking for them. I'm going a little bit down the board to find more of those values right now. Well, that being said, Tom, that begs another question, though.

Of the last nine teams to win the Super Bowl, let's actually go back 10 teams. Let's go back 10 years back to Super Bowl 5th. when Denver won the Super Bowl. Only one team, though, ranked outside the top, I guess, six in what would it be odds when the NFL season began to win the Super Bowl. That being the actually the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2017 season at the 13th longest odds to win the Super Bowl at plus 4,000. But let's go back. The Eagles closed at the fourth best this year. Kansas City was first in 2020, third in 2022.

The Rams were third in 2021. Tampa Bay third in 2020. Kansas City second in 2019. New England first in 2018. The Eagles, I just mentioned, 13th in 2017. 2016, the Patriots were first, and in 2015, the Broncos were sixth. So that is a long trend of the books correctly identifying the favorites to win the Super Bowl. But at this time of year, is there?

an edge to be had with like in in terms of a team who might be 25 to 1 jumping to 15 to 1 after the draft is is really that the only time you should be betting on the Super Bowl right now? Yeah, I still think so. I mean, a lot of the lot of these odds improve as the summer goes long. These are odds I use for the article. This is like right before the start of the season. So right, uh, the Eagles finished, you know, fourth at the start of the season. But they were much farther down the board. Uh, and they just improved because of their off-season moves. So another team like the Texans last year. We remember them. They were about 30, 35 to 1, even with C.J. Strau coming off that awesome season. Then free agency came around.

They go and trade for Stefan Diggs and the vibes were through the roof. And right after that trade, you know, they were down to like 16 to 1. So, you know, maybe just like going through free agency, seeing what teams have some salary cap room at this time of year. I also think looking at draft capital as well, you know, a team that might have a bunch of selections in the draft. Maybe they can make some trades and, you know, swing some deals during draft time. So just looking for those kind of teams that have some room to potentially improve.

As you said, it's been pretty much dominated the Super Bowl champions by the, you know, top five or six teams here. But if we look at, you know, the teams that finished runner up and right on the doorstep of winning, We've had some longer shots. The Eagles back in 2022 were 25 to 1, 13th longest odds. Pengels the year before that were 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl before the season. Then they went on that magical run with Joe Burrow and came pretty close to beating the Rams. 49ers were 40 to 1 back in 2019 when they lost the Chiefs.

So we've seen, I got to mention Trey's Falcons back in 2016. they nearly they basically had the Super Bowl wrapped up. But they were at 80 to 1 odds back in 2016. They were 80 to 1 to 1 to win it before the season. And they were 1 to 80 to win it after like 45 minutes. You probably had to lay minus 8,000 when they were up to 283. But yeah, so we've had teams right on the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl at longer odds. So and maybe this year we do see maybe one of these teams.

that's, you know, a deep, you know, we saw Jaden Daniels make a run to the NFC championship. So it can be done. These teams that are down the odds board, they can make runs. And that would not deter me just because the last 10 years, it's been a little bit chocky. But we do still find some good values down the board here. Okay, T, bro. So what we're going to do is we're going to take a break. And then I want to introduce the little game that we're going to be playing throughout the

offseason on this show and make some wagers based on that. So stay tuned and we'll talk about that game. Okay, so guys, we came up with this literally right before we kind of came on air. And what we wanted to do was a fun way to track bets and make sure this offseason we're giving a little bit of thoughts while not necessarily making bets, just things we're thinking about. So Tom came up with this idea that we're going to track throughout the off season. I guess every time we have a new kind of subject on the show, we can play the game and then we'll recap it. at the end of the season.

But what we're going to have is we're going to have $100 each of us in Monopoly money. And what you can do is on each show, we're going to have $100 to make whatever futures bets we want to make. And the smallest bet you can make is a $10 bet. Obviously, the longest or the biggest bet you can make is $100 bet. So I can do $10, $10, which I don't think any of us are actually going to do. Or we can do one, $100 bet, or I think what we're mostly going to. do T-Bro, kind of split that into like three or four bets on every show. So on this show,

we're going to stick just to Super Bowl odds. We're not going to talk conference champion, although conference champion might be the way to bet if you like some of these longer odds, like we just mentioned the Bengals, the Falcons, who were bottom 10 in Super Bowl odds, would have cashed a real juicy conference champion check and not actually the Super Bowl check. But just for the sake of this show, we're going to look at Super Bowl odds, Tom Brawley. And we're going to play that game throughout the offseason. We'll welcome in good friend Trey. He can make his picks after the way.

He has cooking up here. He gave him $100 to spend. What could he be looking at to spend that money on? But yeah, I figure this is a good way to, you know, kind of have a little bit of structure here. Everybody has the same budget. And you can decide how you want to allocate it. I mean, maybe you really like one team's odds here.

You want to put all $100. Yeah, put it all on one team. But I think most of us will be probably spreading it out a little bit. But yeah, I think there's a fun little exercise. And I've already bet on a couple of my teams. I've written up an article that's all on fantasypoints.com right now. So, you know, I'm going to be probably, you know, tail in a couple of those picks already. So but yeah, I figure this is a good way to have a little bit of structure

and to pick out some of our best bets from each of these categories. So that's what we're going to do. Smallest bet of $10, biggest bet of $100. We'll do this with, I guess, after free agency. We'll do it with awards odds next week. We can do it around NFL draft time. So I also want to make sure we will tell you, by the way, when we put our actual money on a bet. Like, we can tell you this is just for the game or like, Tom, you'll bring up during the season.

This is just for office pools. Like for office pools, this is the way I lean, but I didn't bet it. That's kind of what we're going to do. If I put my actual money and I haven't actually made a Super Bowl bet yet. So just let me throw that caveat out there. If we put our actual money on something, we're really putting our money where our mouth is, we will mention that. And I'm sure you will as well. So, T-Bro, you came up with the contest.

You're the one who's already made some Super Bowl 60 winner wagers. How about you take the floor and you make your first pick for the game? All right. First pick for the game. I'm going right to my article here. Gave it out at 16 to 1 on the site. It's down to 14 to 1 at most shops now. I think it's been a pretty popular pick out there.

I think a lot of people are starting to see the same reasons that I, why I like the San Francisco 49ers to bounce back in 2025. Man, this is the team that just reminds me the most of the Eagles last off season. The team that we're going to buy low on, everybody's kind of, you know, sick of it after a very disappointing 2004 season, but, you know, they still have a lot of good pieces on that team. Faced a lot of adversity with injuries.

Christian McCaffrey, of course, the number one overall pick for fantasy. Very disappointing year. Only played a couple of games after sitting out the first half of the season. Of course, Brandon Ayuk, the prolonged holdout last summer, and then he tears his ACL after a pretty disappointing starting. Even Trent Williams. They're, you know, all pro left tackle. I had some personal issues with his family and, you know, an ankle injury. So there was just not a whole lot of continuity

for the San Francisco 49ers offense. But they were still right in the mix of a lot of games and ended up having some bad luck and finishing six and 11. But if we spin that forward, I think that's a good thing for 2025 here. It means they're going to be playing a last place schedule. year. That means they get the Giants, Bears, and Browns as extra games compared to the other NFC West teams. They also get to play the AFC South and NFC South for their crossover games. So if you tell me what divisions I want to be playing in each conference, I would pick the AFC South and NFC South. So great chance to rack up some wins here. Look at defensive coordinator. Robert Sala is back in in the fold here.

We saw what happened to the Jets. They fired him after, I believe it was like week five. And that defense just collapsed without him, had some very good runs with the 49ers before he ended up taking the Jets job. So everything is kind of telling me here that the 49ers are kind of getting written off a little bit with these odds. I think they should be right there with the rest of these top teams in the NFC, right behind the lines. I think they should be closer to 10 to 1, 12 to 1 at this point. And maybe they will be by the end.

of the summer. But I'm grabbing this at 14 to 1 and I'm going to put $50 on this one. That'll be half of my, half of my budget is on the 49ers at 14 to 1. Okay, Tom. So I did a little bit of work and Draft King's Sportsbook has a really interesting special. And the thing about these specials, I think Adam Levittan always points it out that like, was it the Dave Portnoy specials? Actually, the odds absolutely fucking suck for them. Yes. Like you just, you just are, you're better off parlaying and like actually, as opposed to building a special parlay. That being said, I figured out the odds for this interesting special for the Super Bowl up at Draft Kings.

And here is essentially what they're proposing. Will there be a first time winner of Super Bowl 60? It's no minus 200 and yes, plus 150. Now what that means is, is a new team, a team that has never won the Super Bowl, and there are 12 of them in the NFL who have never won the Super Bowl, will a new team win the Super Bowl in 2025, 26? So that would be the Bengals, the Bengals, the Bills, the Browns, the Cardinals, the Chargers, the Falcons, the Jaguars, the Lions, the Panthers, the Texans, the Titans, or the Vikings. Now, if you're being judicious here, you're probably talking about. five or six of those teams that actually have a shot. So I went out and multiply it out the odds for the top six teams,

which goes from the bills down to the Vikings. The bills, I believe, are plus 750 to win the Super Bowl, or plus 700, rather, and the Vikings are down at plus 4,000. And multiplying that out, I actually thought the bet with just those six teams should be closer to plus 140 with just the six. So that even precludes maybe like a Cinderella run from a team like the Bengals had a couple of years ago that you don't see coming. So really, in all actuality, I feel like this should be closer to plus 130, plus 135. Well, it's actually getting it to you at plus 150.

But like, look, the Bills, the Bengals, obviously two of the primary contenders to Patrick Mahomes. You're looking at the Lions who were the Super Bowl favorite for much of this season. So you get three premier teams right off the bat on that. this and you get to sprinkle in some potential Cinderella runs as well. And we'll get to one of them later because I'm going to be putting a small bet on a long shot to win the Super Bowl. But give me a new Super Bowl winner for $30 plus $150 at Draft King's Sportsbook, one of the 12 teams who have never won the Super Bowl to win it in 2025. I like that. I like that. You get some pretty good teams at the top of the board. You also know getting into the nuts and bolts a little bit,

since they gave you two options, so you know the odds are going to be a little bit better that way. A lot of these, you know, promos that they have up with the Dave Portnoy, as you say, it's only a one-way bet, so they can slant the odds extremely, you know, extremely in the book's favor. And they're not advantageous bets. But since it is a yes, no question, and you have the ability to bet no on the other side at minus 200. That's going to be a little bit better. You're going to get much better odds with those type of bets. So that's how you know it's a little bit better bet there.

But yeah, certainly I like some of those teams. And I actually have on my list two teams that have never won a Super Bowl for my remaining bets. So I'll just get into the next one. I actually place money on this one as well over at Fantasy. points with the Texans 30 to 1 odds i'm actually kind of kick myself i gave the i wanted to give it out at 35 to 1 but by the time i was writing up the article and everything it had dropped to 30 to 1 but yeah make sure you shop around for that one i believe the uh the odds for that one are a draft king is draft kings is where i got it so uh but i'm just thinking hey this was a team that everybody was

really into last year uh odds were you know much much lower at this point after trading for Stefan Diggs, got down to 16 to 1. And now it's all, it's kind of sunk here. It's at 30 to 1, but I still like how it kind of lays out for them. They're going to get a AFC South here that's pretty weak. You know, you got the Titans picking at the top of the draft. Jaguars are in a rebuild. They're going to be, you know, cutting some players and redoing the offense.

Offense here under Cohen. So, you know, I like the AFC South here so they can rack up some games, maybe finish with a top, you know, one of the top seeds. They've been stuck in that fourth seed the last couple of years. And they've been able to win a couple games in the playoffs in the wild card round. But they've run into the top team with the number one seed the last two years. So maybe they can improve on that, maybe host a divisional round game. But I'm just thinking, hey, the league caught up to C.J. Strauss. a little bit here. Maybe they'll go out there and prove the offensive line. That's the first

pain point for this offense. They do need to upgrade a wide receiver as well. But let's get C.J. Stroud some more time. You know, they were ranked 29th in pressure rate allowed at 37%. Success rate on the ground, running the ball. They were dead last at 40.6. So a lot of issues with this offensive line. but I like a lot of pieces on defense. They got Will Anderson, who has the six best odds to win defensive player of the year. Daniel Hunter is on the other side with him, one of the best pass rushing tammons. And then you got Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lasseter, one of the best young cornerback duos in the league.

And they were really starting to shine towards the end of the season. So I think they have the potential to have one of the best defenses in the league. We still really like CJ Stroud. We like the schedule. the AFC South six times. So I don't like that they have to go through the AFC with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. But if we're going to pick a young quarterback who could jump into that group, I think C.J. Straub would be near the top of the list. So give me the Texans at 30 to 1. Much, much longer odds here than they were getting last year in the middle of March

after the digs trade. We're going to buy low on the Texans. Give me 30 bucks on that one. 30 bucks on the Texans. All right. I got 50 on the 49ers at 14 to 1 and 30 on the Texans at 30 to 1. Okay. So let me go with two bets here that where I'm going to try to, I'm going to try to split the Dorfuses a little bit here to quote my old buddy, our old buddy, Greg Wensel. And I'm going to have two similar teams here, Tom, because they come from the same division. And if I'm looking right now for a team to advance to the Super Bowl,

it's got to be, and then they have longer odds, it's got to be a team from an easy division. And like you said, you're talking Texans, AFC South. What about the NFC South? The best quarterback in the NFC right now, I mean, I guess you can say Jaden Daniels, but you have to go through Jalen Hertz. who knows if Matthew Stafford at this point is even going to be in the NFC. It's not as arduous a road to get to the Super Bowl right now. So I'm going to bet on two teams from the NFC South.

And I will admit, I looked so damn hard at the Panthers at plus 130. Wow. Plus 13,000 to win the Super Bowl, just with how Bryce Young played, but I just can't get there. So I'm going to go with the two projected best. teams and put $10 on each of them from the NFC South. The Buccaneers are plus 35 to 1 or plus 3,500, 35 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I think Baker Mayfield's got that dog in them. I think Mike Evans still has a little bit of life left.

They obviously had McMillan coming on late. Bucky Irving was a revelation for them. So I feel like a couple of moves here on the defensive side of the football, and the Buccaneers could be live. And they were a team who, you know, took the commanders to overtime very easily could have gone into Detroit and beat them. They already did that this year. And they gave the Eagles their biggest loss of the year. Give me the Buccaneers at 35 to 1.

And I feel like I'm trolling good friend Trey enough. But I tell you what, man, if things break right. Let's look at the Joe Burrow from a couple of years ago. he's coming off the ACL tear, right? We're not really sure about him, you know, what's Jamar Chase going to do? Well, we don't really know about Michael Penix yet. There's some stuff I liked, some stuff I didn't.

You know, some throws were erratic, and then some throws I thought he made big-time throws. Well, what if we just didn't get a clear enough picture of what Michael Pennix is? And what if he's better than, you know, people are thinking right now. 65 to 1 in what I think is the easier conference, in the easiest division in the easiest division

in the conference, I think is a decent price to pay. So give me $10 each on the Buccaneers and the Falcons, 35 to 1 and 65 to 1 respectively to win Super Bowl 60. All right, all right. I like it. I'm going to go with kind of a rookie quarterback, kind of like you did with Michael Penix. I'm going to go with J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings.

That 40 to 1, I think, is the best numbers, what I saw out there. I'm going to put $20 on this one. I didn't actually wager on this this off season just yet. But it is available at three, bet 365 and Draft Kings at 40 to 1. So this is definitely, this was on my chopping block. I also list, you know, four or five teams that I also considered placing bets on in, in my Super Bowl odds article up on fantasy points.com.

And the Vikings were, I really wanted to bet them. And we even had some people in there are discord like, yeah, why not bet on the Vikings at 40 to 1? And ultimately, I decided against it at this time just because there are so many unanswered questions with J.J. McCarthy and, you know, just how he'll fit in the offense. But I also think that's why we're priced where we are here. Sam Darnold or another quarterback was coming back. It's probably closer to the Texans. It's probably in that 30 to 1 range.

So we're getting a little bit of value here. They just finished 14 and 3. They were able to hide a lot of the Sam Darnold Warts for much of the season until week 18 and into the wild card game there. But still finished with a 14 and 3. They were right there on the doorstep of getting home field advantage in the NFC. And now we're getting them with the 40 to 1 odds, 13th longest Super Bowl odds on the board. We love a lot of these pieces, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hawkinson at receiver. They're going to make JJ McCarthy's life a lot easier developing and becoming an NFL quarterback here, even with a year off last year.

And then we look at the defense. Brian Flores, you know, went unclaimed. Nobody wanted them once again. So they get to keep one of the best defensive coordinators. They finished first and takeaways last year with 33, fifth and points per game allowed at 19.5. Yeah, we might see a little bit of regression from that, but I'd still expect this defense to be. one of the better units with Brian Flores leading the group. So give me the Vikings.

Another one of these teams in Joe's little basket there that have not won an NFL Super Bowl just yet. But so Minnesota wins. Joe will be happy. I'll be happy. I'll take them at 40 to 1. I'll put my remaining $20 on them. Before I make this final wager here and before we get to good friend, Trey, I have to acknowledge that the only team I've currently doubled up on is the Falcons. a team that's never won the Super Bowl, and I've also made an individual bet.

I've got $50 left. Uh-oh. Fly, eagles fly on the road to victory. Plus 650, the best roster in football. Nearly everybody is locked up. Pretty much everybody on the offensive side of the football is coming back. Mackay Beckton is the only question. They have to replace potentially two starters on the defensive line.

I think they're going to lose both Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, but I think they're going to re-sign Zach Bond, the defensive player of the year finalist. It is a phenomenal draft for defensive line, including defensive tackle. This is Howie Roseman to a T. Let your big money defensive tackle walk, draft one high, develop them. Maybe he swings a trade for one of these edge rushers who's available on the market,

and you get another year of development from Nolan Smith and Jalick's Hunt. Unlike the last time the Eagles went to the Super Bowl, or excuse me, won the Super Bowl. There's no quarterback controversy. Jalen Hertz is your guy. They promoted from within to replace Kellynne Moore. I know that was a problem under Shane Steichen, but this time they don't have to replace both coordinators.

Vic Fangio is back, and I truly believe that the Philadelphia Eagles draft in 2024, with Quinniann-Mitchell, Cooper DeGine, heading that class, was enough to start a potential new Legion of, of boom. Look at the statistical comparison between Jalen Hertz and Russell Wilson through their first four years as a starter. Look at the resume. It is eerily similar. And Quinnion Mitchell and Cooper DeGine come in and affect this defense just the way Richard Sherman did, just the way Cam Chancellor did, just the way Bobby Wagner did with the Seattle Seahawks, who did go back to

the Super Bowl after winning it and should have won it. The Eagles are the shortest odds on the board, But I got $50 left and I wanted to troll good friend, Trey. And I still think it's a decent bet. Yes, can I get this after free agency in the draft? Yeah, for sure. And maybe that's when I'll put my real money on it. But for the purpose of our exercise, give me $50 plus $6.50. I'm a Philadelphia Eagles to repeat a Super Bowl jambics.

Yeah, honestly, I think this is one that I could see actually improve a little bit. You know, the odds get a little shorter, maybe even the six to one, $5.50. How he's feeling himself and trades for Miles Garrett. Like that's what's in the real possibility. They do actually have some cap flexibility. They have a lot of picks. I could see them making another big move or two. So this is one of the few teams at the top of the board

where I can actually see it, you know, shortening a little bit here over the next couple of weeks. So, hey, hey, I can't speak ill of the Eagles. They did me well last year. So, hey, if I'm going to pick a team at the top of the board right now, it would probably be the Eagles. You don't have to go through all those quarterbacks in the AFC. It's kind of the Eagles.

It's the Lions and my team there with the 49ers. So I kind of, I kind of, I don't mind these odds at plus 650. All right, T, bro. Let's, uh, let's, let's welcome in good friend Trey to talk about his $100 game. Uh, and plug that hotline. We got ourselves a phone call. We got a voicemail from the people. We want to hear more from the people.

We want to hear from our sponsors. We'll be right back. All right. Good friend, Trey. He's got his falcons gear on. And he had it on before I even knew, before he even knew that I was, going to be wagering on his Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl. Good friend, Trey, I know you were not very happy with Nick Siriani. I need to send you the video of his parents hugging him

on the sidelines after the game. They're so proud of him. It's a very wholesome scene. Have you softened at all? Good friend, Trey. Well, I think I mentioned to you in Discord or over text, you know, even a blind dog finds a bone every once in a while, and especially with with Howie Roseman, you know, holding the leash. He's in a pretty good situation. So credit where credits do, you know, he got the job done. I really like the Eagles. I like Jalen Hertz, okay, like Coop from Iowa, you know.

I like some of these guys. Even though he's not a clone. Even though he's not a clone, you know, respect to a kid from Iowa. I just don't like Nick Siriani. That's my only big beef. I think he's kind of a chump. But listen, he got it done. Respect to him.

I mean, are the Eagles the only team in NFL history where neither the quarterback nor the coach has gotten credit for them winning the Super Bowl? Because everybody's twisting themselves into pretzels to kind of discount both of them. But regardless, you know, it's done. It's done. The Eagles have won. Tom got paid. And I'm a happy man. So good friend, Trey, we came up with the rules to the contest without you. You were out enjoying yourself a little bit there when we came up with the rules. to the to the contest and we've got to hear from you you we've given you a hundred fake dollars to play around with this is like your dream yeah no it's it was the perfect situation and i was able to uh land on three teams that i feel good about in in different capacities so let's get

right into it with my uh my highest dollar wager here um touched on briefly uh earlier but it's the Washington Commanders plus 2,300 at Fanduil. It's going to be $50 to win $1,150. And it's for a lot of the same reasons you talk about with these other teams, right? They've got the third most cap space in the NFL. Obviously, you saw major improvement from pre-Jaden Daniels to this year. And I know Tom took the Texan, so I'm not trying to throw any shade here. But I saw something with Jayden Daniels that I don't know that we saw from C.J. Straub.

in that rookie year where, and you could pick, you know, pick apart the line of situation and say that the defense was decimated and, and, you know, that was an easier game than it should have been for him. But that was kind of a Jane Daniels stamp on his legitimacy that, I don't know that we saw from Stroud when he made a run as a rookie. They did, they did win that first round play, wildcard playoff game and then lost to the Ravens. But that win against Detroit was one of the most impressive things that I've seen a rookie.

quarterback do. So for those reasons, very bought in to the Washington commanders. And that's where I spent half of my $100. I like it. Hey, hey, it's a cheat code. Having these rookies, rookie quarterbacks, their deals are cheap. They can go out there and spend a lot of money. They spent a little bit of money last off season, but that roster still had a lot of holes. So they can continue to plug away there. And I really like those odds. 23 to 1. They were one of the teams I was seriously considering just have to get through those eagles in their own division. But it's hard to argue against the 23 to 1 odds. It feels like those odds are going to keep falling.

And that's my kind of concern with them. It's like it feels like everybody's now trying to identify the young quarterback who's going to get to the Super Bowl. And you're probably not getting as long odds as you should. I'm actually looking at draft kings right now. They're plus 1900. So man, imagine if they trade for Miles Garrett, though. That's going to get them to like 13 to 1 or something like that. Yeah, this is definitely one of those teams.

We're talking about, you know, way through our money, well, yeah, but if like as soon as free agency comes around, middle of March, it starts, what, March 12th,

they're going to make, they're going to make some sort of splashy move. And their odds are going to be down to 18 to 1, as you said, Joe. Some of the books are already moving, moving in that direction. So I think it is a good time to jump in on the commanders at 23 to 1. I don't think those odds are going to be here in a month.

All right, good French, what else you got for us? Well, I will give you one more. note about the commanders. I have not seen this take anywhere. Anybody mentioned this, but do you think they're kicking themselves just a touch for getting rid of Montes sweat? I don't know how it worked out after the fact. I don't have the pick. You know, I think they got a second round pick for him, but that's the type of guy maybe they could use, you know, with this iteration of the Washington commanders.

So I don't know. Maybe that's a bad take, you tell me, but I don't think they expected to be in this situation, you know, so, but we'd be a nice piece to have. Who did that turn into? Was that McCaffrey or one of those picks? They ended, it was a second or third round pick that it turned into. Maybe it was Ben Sinnett from Kansas State who ended up doing very little. Here's the funny part because I just went there to try to find the trade. Okay. So Chicago traded it to Washington.

It ended up being the 40th overall selection. Washington traded that pick. Oh, geez. The 40th, the 78th, and the 152nd to Philadelphia for two seconds and a fifth. The pick turned into. to Cooper DeGine. Now, Washington took Ben Sina and Mikey Sainer still. Sainer still had a really good rookie season, but he wasn't Dijin.

So would Washington take that trade back is the question? I don't know. Both potentially, Ed. Yeah, I don't think they expected to be in this situation. Regardless, little side note, but the next team that I have, Tom already touched on the Minnesota Vikings, kind of a glaringly obvious pick there, plus $4,000 on draft kings, be $40. I have to win $1,600.

They've got the seventh most cap space in the NFL. They maybe have the best head coach in football. I think there's certainly arguments out there for other guys, but O'Connell is kind of the man, one coach of the year. And at fantasy points, we love J.J. McCarthy. Yes, we do. For the reasons that Tom laid out where it's a risky bet, I actually like those types of bets because it's the uncertainty,

like you said, is where you're getting the value. I personally, the latte model, I had, I had JJ as QB1 in the class as well. I know Brett did and caught a lot of, caught a lot of flack for that. I totally agreed with them. And I think in this class this year, JJ would be the unquestioned top quarterback in this class. When you look at a guy like Sam Darnold, Sam Darnold, his entire career has been terrible. And I, you know, I know he had a great season. And congrats to him for playing well, but you have to look at a guy like J.J. McCartner,

and think to yourself, he's probably going to be better than Sam Donald, hopefully going to be better than Sam Donald. But it's just the wiggle room there. How much better than Sam Donald is J.J. McCarthy going to be? I say this to say there's reason to believe that he's going to be significantly better than Sam Donald. So I like this.

I think you get the rookie quarterback in here. Maybe they make a splash. I know Miles Garrett's been the name that people have been throwing around here. They're a piece away from really increasing their odds as well. well. So yeah, I got $40 on the Minnesota Vikings. Yep. And this is one of those. We get one month of a sample from JJ McCarthy. He looks pretty good. Those odds are going to sink pretty quickly. So yeah, we both both like the Vikings. And Joe's rooting for him too if his Eagles don't win it. Because that means he wins his plus 150, a new team to win them. So that would be a three way win

for us if the Vikings win it. And John Hanson would be pretty happy too. And Brock or developer. Brock. Yes. Who is, who is, I call him Vikings nihilist Brock. He's always, he's always in our staff discord talking shit on the Vikings. He's a Vikings fan. I guess they've given him plenty of reasons to over the years. But nonetheless, I don't know if he'd believe it until he actually sees the trophy.

And he might have to see it in person before he believes it. All right, good friend, Trey. That means you've given us two of the three teams that you discuss that you have an affinity for. Who's the third? And why are you saving it for less? I'm saving it for last because it's a little bit out there. Okay. Clearly I have $10 left for those who are good at math at home.

I'm going to put this $10 on the New England Patriots plus $12,500 at MedMGM. So that's going to be $10 to win $20.50. Extreme long shot. Now, let's look at the pros because I think there are many. And I think that a lot of the cases you guys made for other teams in this segment, you can make for the Patriots. So they have the most caps based in the NFL, obvious. We talk about a rookie quarterback, a good rookie quarterback. They have one.

I'm a big believer in Drake May. That's my quarterback, too, in this class. I think he's the real deal. The poor play and the poor season, I think you can attribute a lot of that to the fact that Drodmeil sucks. No disrespect to Drod Mail. but they clearly did not have a good thing going this year. And I think if you're like, I mean, at plus 12,500, I'll go out on a limb and say, they're going to be better without drawed mail.

That's going to be a big reason why they suck. Joe mentioned with the Eagles, this new Legion of Boom, which I like. Think about this. You take the Patriots. Imagine they take Travis Hunter with the fourth pick in the draft. And you now have Travis Hunter on one side, generational corner, Christian Gonzalez on the other side, generational corner, not generational, but great, great, great corner. Maybe the best rookie corner ever that his rookie season was, you know, unbelievable.

That already is a, you know, a defensive, you know, centerpiece that you can build around with all of this cap space. There's a couple wide receivers out there, like, I know they said they're going to franchise tag T. Higgins, but there's maybe some trade opportunities for a wide receiver. They're going to get a lot better. And I also think in this draft specifically, where they can improve is on offenses at running back. Remandre Stevenson had some fumbling issues this year and a good player. But there's so many running backs in this draft class that this isn't a team where it's one move is going to turn them into a contender. But if they can make four, five, six great moves and they're in position to do so, hire the right coach.

Maybe it happens. It's a long shot for a reason, but I'm putting my $10 on the new. England Patriots. Yeah, I feel like there's worse long shots, but it does feel like, oh, the Patriots probably are a couple of years away. Maybe they surprise. Maybe they take, you know, like the commanders last season where we think that there are multiple moves away, multiple years away, but maybe surprise in the second year with Drake

May, but it does feel like maybe a couple of years down the road. But offensive line would be the biggest one. That's the issue I think that they need to clean up the most. And I don't know if you can do that in one. one off-season cycle, but they're going to have resources to dump into it, as you said, with the salary cap and the wiggle room they have there. And they also are going to have a lot of top picks here, especially with the fourth overall pick.

Maybe they reach for a tackle there or they wait to the second round and select one. But that would be by one concern. But at those odds, I think there's worse bets down that and that far on the board for sure. So if you were with us last week and even if you weren't, we have a new feature coming to the Best Bet show, and I don't know how much traction this is going to get in the offseason, but it's kind of a vent hotline. Maybe you want to call in and yell at us for a bad pick. Maybe you want to call in and yell at us for a bad take. Maybe you just want to call in and ran about a bad beat that you've had. Or maybe you just want to say hi. We have the Fantasy Points Best Betts hotline that we set up. Good friend Trace set that up.

And a listener has actually taken advantage of that. And I believe has a suggestion. that fits the topic of this very show coincidentally. So good friend, Trey, remind everybody about the Best Betts Hotline. I don't know if we're going to call it something, maybe come up with a cuter name than that, but that's what we're going to call right now. But we do have a call. A listener has taken our advice and has, has chosen to empty the clip, so to speak. Yeah, I have my question marks about this listener that I'll, I'll mention after the call. But a reminder, Best Betts Hotline, 319-775-0-4-10 call in you'll hear what this caller has to say you can do just what he did ask a question

tell us what you think you need some advice maybe you need dating advice you know whatever you need you just ask us we'll get you set up but without further ado uh quote unquote ron from miami florida yo food you kapesta man how y'all doing this is ron berry from miami florida i'll tell you what miami dolphins they're going to be in the super bowl who you think's going to win the Super Bowl, I'd say the Miami Dolphins were as good as we were right now as what Ui Vonn Shaman was our kicker. I'll tell you what. You guys have a great podcast. Have a great day. Now let me just say something about this. There's some weird things going on here because one, this guy sounds exactly like my dad whose name is not Ron. Two, I don't know that anybody

knows Ui Van Shaman other than my dad. And my dad is a Miami Dolphins fan. So the call the call is a little questionable but i know garrar you're premium yeah that's the i mean that's the that's the i'm the that's the Miami dolphins kicker i remember from the 70s well i don't remember him but i that's the name i've heard i i do i won't shaman is a real person i did just look him up yeah so and i will say this i was going to save a little extra money to bet to bet the dolphins here on the program but i started looking to it looking into it and i said no that's not going to happen so uh yeah sorry sorry ron but none of the money from this show is going towards your dolphins, I don't believe. You know, plug that hotline number again, Trey.

I better, I better memorize this myself. Yeah, 319775-0-4-10. That's 319775-0-4-10. Tell us, you think the dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl. We'll take the call. We'll play it. As crazy as it is, as wild as that is, we'll play it. So, yeah, one more time, 319-7-75-0-0.

410. We'll be talking MVP, Combine, Free Agency, in the next couple of, you know, basically the next month. So if you have any thoughts on those subjects or any MVP bets or anything, any free agency bets, yeah, drop them on there. We'll play them. Well, I would be remiss to mention, I'm a terrible salesman, by the way. I need to get better at this. FantasyPoint.com. All of Tom Brawley's best bets are available for the NFL Premium Package. You subscribe now. You get. everything. Free agency, the draft, off seasons, line movements, anything Tom sees and drops in there,

he will get at you. Now, also, I need to bring up that the UFL season, we're going to have to talk UFO on this podcast in the off season because good friend Trey's a sicko. We're going to have to get our guy Jake Tribby on the show to talk UFL. That is a spring football package at FantasyPoint.com. You want to get an edge? Well, there is an edge for you. We're talking bets that like the books are pointing out backup quarterbacks having passing lines all tray needed was that guy to take a snap to cash an under he won jake triby won a lot with dfs uFL season is around the corner we'll be talking about that on this show as well i hope everybody likes the show if you do please subscribe to our feed leave a five-star review write a comment it helps us so much we've started playing

a new game we started listening to the people there is only up to go from here remember we're not wise we're just guys and we'll be with you next week take it easy everybody