Fantasy Football Daily - Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets, Long-Shot Props, and Breakdown | Point Spread Podcast

Episode Date: February 8, 2024

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) take a look at some of their favorite bets from the Big Game between the Chiefs and 49ers! Play the Fantasy Points Super Bowl Contest for a chance to win a Fantasy Points subscription! https://www.fantasypoints.com/promos/super-bowl-lviii-props-contest#/ SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Happy Thursday morning of Super Bowl Week. My name is Joe Dolan. His name is Tom Browley. Welcome to the final point spread live stream here at FantasyPoint.com. Great to be with everybody as we break down the big game, Tom. By the way, I probably, I don't know if I should, I should even talk about this, but I don't know if I know the rules over who's allowed to say Super Bowl and who's not a lot, who has to say the big game. I don't know. I bet Goodell is watching this right now. He's yeah. He's one of the rules. He's one of the dozens of people who are tuned in right now to the game. Anyway, Super Bowl 58, Kansas City Chief, San Francisco 49ers. Tom, obviously there's a lot going on for this game. Everybody knows it's the most bed event of the year. And we're going to talk about that. But we always use this as kind of a fun breakdown. And I think starting with Super Bowl 50, which was the Panthers and the Broncos, you and I started kind of saying like, hey, how can we do something a little bit more involved than Super Bowl squares at our Super Bowl party. And we threw together like a little prop contest, which, you know, can get people to get the thrill of betting on the game without actually having to bet on the game so like your grandma can do it. And we have since adapted that contest to run on FantasyPoint.com. So if you go to FantasyPoints.com and I'm sure Trey, Trey will put this in the show notes, right, Trey? a link to our contest.

And it's our big game prop contest. There are 36 multiple choice questions. And instead of having like money lines on them, you essentially assign a point value based on the likelihood of that happening, which is similar to the what the plus value would be or the minus value would be on a betting website. And the strategy is, yes, you want to get more questions right. but you also want to kind of hit on some of those ones that might happen a little bit less. For instance, in that Super Bowl 50 contest, my wife posted defensive score as the first touchdown, and that ended up actually hitting and propelling her to a victory in that contest. Safety.

No, that was Vaughn Miller. Oh, that was one. Okay. I'm thinking of the other. I want to bet on that one. Yes, the first points of the game. Yeah, I won, it was 60 to 1. I want to bet on that.

I think that's a cousin Sal special, right? Yeah, that was a cousin Sal back in the day. We bet that a couple of years. And then Brady did it the couple years before that. He had the intentional grounding. Yeah, he did it after Brady. Yeah, Brady had intentional grounding from the end zone against the Giants. And Peyton, it was, I believe the center was Manny Ramirez, the other Manny

Ramirez snapped the ball over his head. And resulted in a safety in that awful Bronco Seahawks Super Bowl. But anyway, that contest is up on the website, Tom. And let's just give you a little a look-see at some of the kind of. We have some of the fun prop bets in there. You don't go too nuts because, like, we have to grade this thing. And sometimes it's like, it's like, oh, we take like the Vegas, you know, if it's graded by a, you know,

we use the NFL media, you know, the, the playbook that they have at the conclusion of the game. We do mix a couple in, though, stuff that we can actually time. And like the National Anthem with Reba McIntyre is one of them. We'll have, we always have a couple questions like,

well, this coach B.C., you remember last year, I think Nick Siriano was the big underdog to be shown first. Yeah. Andy Reed was in his, you know, multiple Super Bowels.

And then Siriani, like rivers of tears are coming down his face. And the camera- Sean Moreno style. Yeah. The cameras couldn't go off of them. So, you know, that was a bit of an upset. But we have stuff like that. We'll do, I always mix in a couple of national halftime props as well. Like what song will usher play first. And, yeah, we have some fun ones as well. I noticed that I put one in for bad blood, a little Taylor Swift reference there.

I love that one, Tom. I thought you picked that up from the sports book, but you did not. I was looking through her titles, and I'm like, how bad blood. I'm like, because I had the Ravens Chiefs game on my mind, all those penalties that the Ravens, you know, all the unsportsman like and the roughing the passers. I'm like, oh, okay, I could do one off of that. So it's like all the penalties, you know, after the, you know, after the play type of penalties or, you know, excessive amounts of, you know, the dirty play or whatever. So that was one of them. You changed one as well.

It's over now. The final play of the game, which is a, that's one of the ones I actually came up with myself in terms of it's a great prop. It's, uh, the final play is it a kneel down, which is the most common victory formation. Is it any other play or is it a scoring play, which obviously would be a very exciting way, uh, to end the Super Bowl. So, um, but, but again, the one, the higher like, like for instance, let's, let's go here. Mm-hmm. We'll record the most rushing yards from this group. Christian McCaffrey is a one point. answer because he's an obvious answer. Isaiah Pacheco is two. And it's just of those two. So who records the most of those two? Well, Isaiah Pacheco, we have less likely to do it. So you actually get more points if you pick Isaiah Pacheco and he goes up. So it's a really fun contest. We have a PDF. You guys can run the contest from your home party. And we'll post an answer key up on the website the day or the day or two days after the Super Bowl once we get everything kind of graded up. But on website and I'm bearing the lead here Tom we are running this contest for fantasy point subscription

the grand prize winner uh will get an all in subscription and a fantasy t-shirt second place will get an all-in subscription third through fifth will get an NFL premium subscription and six through tenth will get an NFL standard subscription for 2024 at fantasy points and if you already have those packages uh we'll work we'll contact you by email we'll work with you for um an alternate an alternate prize. So don't worry, we will work with you. But if you don't already have the prize that you win,

you can't negotiate an alternate. We'll just give you what we laid out. We should say, like you don't even have to be a subscriber to the site. No, no, no, no, you just have to sign up for the free account, which is, you know,

basically your email and your name and you're, you know, you can sign up for the contest. So yeah, even if you're not a subscriber and you're like, hey, I'd like to have a little bit of fun. and hey, maybe I can get this data pack. I've been hearing all about fantasy points data.

Maybe I can win one of the top prizes and get access to that or, you know, just have a little bit of fun. Yeah, there's somebody in our Discord was reaching out to me earlier this week. He's like, I mean, I love this poll. I run it with my office. You know, can you get me like a PDF? Like, it's right in there, right there in the article. So a lot of fun.

You can print a couple out. Do your own grading. you know, if you have a little get together and everybody fill out their sheet and you can be your own judge. So it's a lot of fun. We've been doing this for eight years, I guess. Now this will be the ninth season, I guess, that we've been doing it. So next year's the big anniversary. That'll be the 10th anniversary, Joe.

So, yeah, this has been a lot of fun. People love it. And they always talk. They always ask about it. So we love doing it. And I hope you get a little bit enjoyment out of it. And it adds a little extra to the game. you know, on top of all the commercials and all the great food you're going to be eating and the beers you're going to be drinking.

How about a little bit of fun with a little bit of prop contest on the side? Now, Tom, let's go to the sports books and let's hit some of the bets that you've made here. I think you and I are aligned here. I'm taking the choice. Everybody on our staff is I've seen the early, I haven't posted our staff picks yet, but we're just waiting on John Hanson. I was talking with him on Sirius XM for 40 minutes this morning. And I think, oh, you did 40 minutes. Yeah, I did two segments.

We did, you know, they moved to the three hours show here this week. So they're looking for, you know, to fill a little more extra time. So it's like, yeah, I'll do two segments with them. So but everybody, it's universal. We're Kansas City across the board on the staff here, which can mean only one thing. That San Francisco is probably going to win in a route. Yeah. I'm with, I'm on Kansas City.

And I'm going to tell you why just like, first and foremost, yeah, Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes. And I mean, I think that's right. I think he's leveled up his game. Travis Kelsey has leveled up his game in the postseason. But I actually want to kind of point and lean into maybe my favorite long shot prop that you actually added to your long shot prop article. You said you're just you're driving around. You're like, I don't have access to a book.

Tom, can you find this prop? I was in an Uber. This is a prop that's never usually out there, but I did a little digging and found it. Founded at the ESPN bets. So here is the research that I have done on here. I was actually in an Uber on my way back from the Senior Bowl. And I was, I said, Tom, I have a, I have a little spot.

I did the Roto Wire Super Bowl marathon with Jim Coventry. And his request was, we're going to talk a little bit about the game. He said, come up with a prop you like. And I'm like, well, I'm not going to say Kansas City plus one and a half, you know, like the, yeah, thanks stolen, you know. And believe me, I want you to know, I cannot bet on this because I live in South Carolina and South Carolina in this regard sucks. We don't have any of the fun stuff legal here, including the wacky tobacco and none of that's

legal here. The sports betting is not legal here. So I don't want to come out here and say, put all your money on this because I can't. But Tom, you've laid out. I can put some money down for you, though, Joe. You just got to say the word. All right. Oh, yeah, okay.

Hopefully Draft Kings isn't listening. Anyway, Brock Purdy, we have him charted at Fantasy Points data as having a turnover worthy throw rate of 7.1% in the NFL playoffs. That's the most of any quarterback in the playoffs so far. His actual interception rate is 1.4% in the playoffs. So we have Brock Purdy as having thrown basically one out of five deserved interceptions. Now, that's kind of reductive. Not every turnover worthy throw is supposed to turn into a turnover.

It doesn't work that way. And occasionally, non-turnover worthy throws turn into turnovers, you know, an interception off a receiver's hands or something like that. But essentially, yeah, we have Brock Purdy as having thrown five deserved interceptions. he's thrown only one in this postseason. He can't keep getting away with it. Yeah, the Aaron Paul, Jesse Pinkman. Steve Spagnolo's defense has been hounding quarterbacks in this postseason.

Obviously, they made Lamar Jackson looks at. Lamar was so frustrated at the end of that game. You know, we threw that interception into triple coverage and it was a dumb throw. And sometimes it's just like he was playing clean, but he's like, shit, I got to do something here. You know, I have to try to make a. play. And then at the end of it, he's like, no, I should not have I tried to make a play. And they picked them up. So I said to Tom, Brock Purdy to throw an interception. That's small

beans for the super. Yeah. You know, like, does 15 if you're looking to bet that too? Minus one. Does anybody have Brock Purdy to throw two or more interceptions? And you found it on ESPN bet. At the time it was plus 450, it has been bet down, dole in the line mover. Yeah. And if you're feeling really frisky, Brock Purdy to throw three plus interceptions, plus 1,600. And I just feel like the way he's played in this postseason, with the way Steve Spagnolo's defense has played in this postseason, I feel like that's why I'm taking Kansas City in this game, Tom. Let's hit some of your analysis. I ended up putting that into my article, all the stuff that you touched on. But if we look

closer at the sample here recently, he's throwing an interception in seven of his last 13 games. So if you're just looking to bet the interception prop at minus 115, he's been turning the ball over a lot recently. And if we look at their losses, four losses this season, three of those games, he threw for multiple interceptions. Of course, the Ravens game, the Minnesota Vikings game on Monday night football. And I'm blanking on the other. They had that three game lose.

It might have been against the Browns, I guess the other one maybe. So three of their four losses, he's thrown for multiple interceptions. So I'm with you. I'm on the chief side here. If we get a, and we've seen it the last two weeks. They've been playing from behind.

Have to take a little bit more, you know, you have to have a little bit riskier play. He's thrown some passes that were turnover worthy, as our fantasy points data said. So the way we think this game could play out, you know, that also plays into the argument that we have to bet this at long

grow up. So yeah, I'm with you there. I sprinkle a little bit on that, that big, the two interception prop at plus 450. And I also have just the flat, you know, minus 115. That's the lowest number at Fandold. Most other places are around minus 130, minus 135. So most books are thinking that party is due for an interception here in the big game. Tom, what are the odds for MVP right now? because that sometimes is the way to like kind of kind of game the system in terms of betting on the on the on the money line or the spread. I'm guessing Mahomes is the favorite. Yes. Is there a way to like if you like the 49ers to try to create some equity by betting purdy and or Christian McCaffrey to win MVP?

Honestly, I kind of like if I was betting one of the top two guys for the 49er, I kind of like betting McCaffrey because I think that would be, you know, if they they really run out to a, I think. he's like plus 450 as well. But yeah, Purdy, I think, is it plus 210 last I looked and like, you know, my homes was like plus 150. I actually, we had some success with this, the MVP bet. I kind of have it laid out in my article. You know, everybody's like, oh, it's just a slam dunk for the quarterbacks. But if we look back over the last 10 years, it's, you know, 60 percent, 10 of the six

of the 10 have been quarterbacks. We hit Cooper Cup just two years ago. I gave it out at plus 700 odds. You know, had the big game against the Bengals that year. Had a couple, you know, three years, it's been a receiver or two years, I believe. It's been a receiver. Two defensive players of Von Miller, as you said, back in 2015. And the Malcolm Smith off the board, no odds on him back in 2013 with the Seahawks.

But recently we've had some receivers here win this. I was looking at, I mean, we got the Kelsey narrative. I mean, it's real. It's out there. He's on the top of everybody's mind. Got that at plus 2,000. I think it's down to plus 1,500. If we really look at the numbers, like over 17 postseason games with Mahomes,

he's either reached 100 yards and or hit two touchdowns in eight of 17 games with Mahomes. So he's a big time performer in the postseason. He's been, you know, the talk of the Super Bowl, the talk of the NFL, basically, all season long. If he has another performance, even like the one he had against the Ravens, over 100 yards, 11 catches and a touchdown, two touchdown receptions against the bills. He has anything like those two games.

I think he's live to win it. And the other guy was, if we're looking at the other side, I do think it's going to be probably either one of Purdy or McCaffrey, but Debo, I got him at plus 3,800. He's been bet down. I think plus 2,500 is like the best number now. But if we think about it, like, if he scores, he's the only guy that's going to have a rushing touchdown

and a receiving touchdown outside of Christian McCaffrey. And I went back through the numbers. Four of his 17 games that he's played, he scored a combination of a rushing touchdown and receiving touchdown. So, you know, 25% of the time, those odds are real long if he has that type of performance. And I do think they're going to feed him the ball.

I have another prop on his receiving yards over. And we kind of saw it. They were really stagnant without him against the Packers in the divisional round. And then in the conference championship, offense was kind of flat for the first half. And then as soon as the second half started, it was like Kyle Shanahan's like, we're giving the ball to Debo. They came out throwing in the ball, handing him the ball.

Well, you know, it was it was the Debo show in the second half of that game. So that's the two flyers I like here. But if you want to, you know, if you're going to take the Chiefs, maybe a sprinkle a little bit on Mahomes as well. If you want to have that plus 150 or whatever the number is at at this point. But yeah, those are two longer. So I always like to try to give out a long shot or two for the MVP. People like to watch that. So those are my two favorite long shot bets in that market.

But let's go to the ones that aren't long shot. That's Tom. I know we shit on Brock Purdy here with the interception. Well, you already have one for an interception, but you also have Brock Purdy over the rushing yards after what we saw, especially in the conference championship game, but the week before that as well, he's gone over this number in each of his last two playoff games. Yeah, 62 rushing yards on 11 attempts in the last two games. You know, maybe we can get that kind of game script again where they're kind of chasing points a little bit. And, you know, his over was set at 10.5. That's what I gave it out. on Fendell last week. I think it's up to like 12.5 now. I, you know, I still don't think that's, I think that's still a number I would bet. Once it gets up to like 14.5, 15 and a half, I'd probably stay away. His like rushing attempts numbers at like three and a half. And so, you know, we're probably

looking at two to three potential scrambles here. But he can move a little bit. We don't see it very often, but, you know, he can run pretty well. So that seems to be something they've added to his Arsenal here a little bit, maybe to stop him throwing into bad situations and into coverage. Hey, talk it and run if you have it for you. We know that, you know, looking at how the chiefs play, you know, they'll play their fair share of man coverage. You know, that helps to, you know, if a quarterback gets lost, if he doesn't have somebody marking him, it's not like the chiefs are going to do what they did with Lamar Jackson,

to have a spy, you know, like, you know, watching him around the field. that's not going to be the situation with Purdy. So if they get locked up into some man coverage and, you know, maybe Purdy can sneak a couple here and break a long run here. And this is, this prop has been, you know, these rush, QB rushing yards can be a little scary. I had the Mahomes one a couple years ago in this same game. And that was the game that he took three kneels, that kneel downs at the end of the game, lost 16 yards and lost that prop.

But so this is, I'm a little scared going into this. but he's certainly been running around a little bit more in the post season here since the games of, you know, the stakes have risen a little bit. And we see that with these quarterback. You know, they're kind of in self-preservation mode in the regular season. But once these games start to mean a little bit more and, you know, the threat of missing a game or two isn't there. These quarterbacks will run a little bit more in the postseason. Tom, you mentioned Debo Samuel already, but just to reiterate, Kansas City, the too high safety coverage, 70% of the time. which is the most in the NFL. Debo is the team best in yards per out run and target share against too high.

He gets to avoid Legerries Sneed more than I. I don't think Sneed is going to shadow Iyuk. I think they match up depending on on alignment. But Debo, 53 and a half receiving yards is one you like in this game, which also kind of ties into your very long shot MVP bet. Yeah, I'm on Debo in this game. If I had to pick one guy that I thought would have maybe a down performance this week could probably be Iyuk in this offense.

Of course, this is, you know, we play this game every week trying to figure out who it is. You know, these guys are all capable of going off, all four of them. And they're, you know, usually only two or three of them go off. So it's, it was a little tricky. As John said on the radio show this morning, he's like, I'd probably be like hitting 70% of my props if I just stayed away from IUC props. So it can be a little hit or miss trying to figure out who the guy is this week in any given week for the, for the, for the, 49ers, but I kind of feel like it could be a Debo week. Ayuk is more stationary.

You know, Debo's moving around the formation. I think they're going to be able to get him away from Legerius Sneed a little bit more. Ayuk is more stationary. You know, he's kind of playing that ex position and on the line of scrimmage. And I think that's, you know, more, you know, a better chance that he sees a lot more sneed. So you laid it out with our fantasy points data. A lot of too high coverage.

Although I, if I remember correctly, the data. kind of says that Iyuk is the, the better man coverage guy, but, you know, that, you know, they're still going to run zone coverage 60, 60% of the time. No team really, you know, plays man coverage more than like 45, 50% of the time. So both guys should have their opportunities here. But I feel like this is tilted a little more towards Debo this week.

Tom, you've been had two weeks to look at this game. So you've got some sicko props here. And one of them is a field goal prop, which I actually like, though, because you dug into the data here to explain why you're taking Kansas City, excuse me, the total, the longest field goal for either team under 40 and a half yards. Not the long, it's the final successful field goal. So, yeah. Oh, excuse me, the final successful one. Okay.

Yeah. So if you look at this prop, most other books, it's like 36 and a half or 38 and a half, at least like the first successful field goal. but I went back through the numbers. 71% of Jake Moody's kicks have been from 39 yards or shorter. Bucker has been at 64% of his field goals have been 39 yards or shorter. And then I went back and looked through all the game log. This is how much time I have leading up. The two weeks gives you a little more opportunity to dig into these games.

And 74% of San Francisco's games have finished with a 40-yard field goal or shorter, 14 to 19 games. And Chiefs have been at 60% at 40 yards or shorter, 12 of 20. So honestly, I think this line is a couple yards too long. And that could be the different. This is a minus 110 on both sides. I think this probably should be set at like 37 and a half, 38 and a half. So just a little bit of value.

I mean, it's not like this is, it certainly could go over. It's still a bit of a coin flip prop. But I do think this is set. about two or three yards too high at 40 and a half. So yeah, it's a minus 110, not too sexy, but it gives you something to watch at the end of the game if they're lined up a field goal or potentially going for a fourth down. So that's a fun little prop to watch for the end of the game.

Tebram, anything else that we got a hit on here because you got to go. You call a plumber early this week to fix up your sink and your dishwasher. And he decided, you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to come right during your live stream. So anything else you want to hit on here with Super Bowl 58 and some of the props that you have? Yeah, just one more. I'll say I have a George Kittle. Let's hit on him real quick.

I gave us out plus 950. I think it's been bet down to plus 700, which is it's kind of, I probably wouldn't pull. It's one of those. It's a 50-50 play at that point. But for him to have the longest reception, I think, you know, he's getting slept on a little bit because. he's a tight end, but if you look at all the numbers, he's averaging 15.9 yards per reception. Yack is at 7.5 yards, yards,

yards per route run, 2.42 yards per route runs. All tight end best. So he's been a lead after the catch and went back through it, 32 plus yards or longer in eight of his 18 games. He's had a 32-yard catch or more. And, you know, two different times he's had the longest reception in the game. And he's been really close, like two or two. three other times. So I like George Kittle as a kind of a sneaky play to have the longest

reception in the game. So plus 950 is what I got it at, but I still think there's a plus 700 out there. So if you're looking for another long shot type of prop, I think that's a good one to maybe look at as well. If you want all of Brawley's best bets on the Super Bowl, we'll also get Paul Kelly in there. Justin Varns will be in there. John Hanson will get his props up. you need an NFL premium subscription at fantasy points.com. That doesn't preclude you, by the way, from also entering the contest and getting an alternate prize if you do subscribe to NFL premium.

But if you're like, now, screw these guys, they're morons. I'm going to wait until the end of the Super Bowl to see if they've won me money. But I'll enter the contest to see if I can get a free subscription to test out their work. Go enter the Super Bowl 58 prop contest. A tray is going to put it in the show notes. He put it in the comments. All you need is a free account.

at fantasy points.com to enter and it's a lot of fun. You can run it at your Super Bowl party as well. So $1,600 up in prizes in Fantasy Point subscriptions. For those of you who will succeed at that game, we'll get the answer key up. Tom, I'll be grading this one live. Our guy Clark Bundy always throws me together an unbelievable speed that calculates it live, which is badass. All I got to do is just pick the answer. So I'll be sitting there with my laptop during the Super Bowl like a freaking dork. But I'll be doing that. Joe, we've been doing this.

This will be the ninth year that we've been doing it. I've never placed. I don't think. I don't think. I at least not like big money. So it's got to happen. I come up with the damn questions. And I've,

you know, we do have a pretty big poll size, but still have never cash. So one of these years I'm going to, I'm going to cash. You know, I've been donating my $20 every year. So I'm thinking this year might be my year. So I have a pretty good feeling.

So let's go. I'm ready to do it. Trey behind the scenes, he better get in the pool as well. Anybody else out there running at your Super Bowl party and enter the contest at fantasy points.com. Hope everybody had a wonderful Thursday morning with us. Thank you for giving us your time.

Hope everybody enjoys the game this weekend. Thank you, everybody. Take it easy.