Fantasy Football Daily - Super Bowl Plays and Joe’s Conspiracy + Trey’s Hot Streak Continues? | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: February 6, 2025

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports. Play the Super Bowl contest here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/promos/super-bowl-lix-props-contest#/ Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Intro - 0:00 Super Bowl Feels - 0:34 Early Bird Special - 2:35 Looking Around The Market props - 3:49 Our Props - 7:56 28:55 - Good Friend Trey Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We are just days away from the Super Bowl of betting. The Super Bowl. We have bets on the spread, maybe the total. We've got low probability prop bets, high probability prop bets, and good friend Trey is on a winning streak. This is fantasy points and the best bet show. Welcome to Super Bowl 59 week, Tom Brawley. It is finally here that two weeks.

When your team is in the game, the two weeks doesn't feel like long enough, quite frankly. Like my wife told me this morning she's like she feels like she's getting sick every time she thinks about the game. We're not having a party for the game because she doesn't want to interact with people. She just wants to become a feral Philadelphia fan. And of course, though, I've got to put money on the game because, well, that's kind of what I do here at the best bet show. T-bro, you've already analyzed the game. It feels. like the analysis is kind of done, and now you're just trying to make sure you don't twist yourself into a pretzel with the analysis. So how are you feeling about this game and about the week in

general? I'm looking forward to it. I think we do have the two best teams from each respective conference in the game. So that's good. But this two weeks, it is tough. I just keep a good thing we were all down at the senior bowl last week. So that kept me away from my computer looking at prop bets for most of last week. I still snuck. in some time to look at prop bets. But the last couple of days, since I got back into the saddle here, just going through every page and prop on Fendell, Draftings, Bet 365, ESPN bet. I mean, I've looked at all of them.

It feels like dozens of times now. Just looking for any bet that's going to stand out. So from that perspective, I almost wish the game would just get here. I analyzed it from every angle. still trying to find a last gem or two. So stay tuned to FantasyPoints.com, get in the Discord. I'll probably still drop another proper tube. But I found some bets that I like and have already wagered on here.

We'll go through them here on the Best Betts podcast. If you're listening to this show, you're and looking for actionable information, like as in it's before the game, well, then you can still go to FantasyPoint.com and get our early bird special 20% off any package at fantasy points, which includes NFL premium, which is where you can get all of our betting and DFS and fantasy regular season content. All of that is included. No strings attached.

You don't even need to use a code. It is 20% off up to and through Super Bowl Sunday. Should also remind the people, T-Bro, that the fantasy points prop pool contest is live at fantasy points. We're giving away $1,200. in subscriptions to the website with our 36 question proper. We broke that down on the last best bet show. So if you want to understand that contest, maybe run it at your home and in your own Super Bowl party,

we have the ability for you to do that with a printable PDF. It is a really fun contest. And heck, you can enter on the website and win a subscription. So, Tom, let's get to the game right now. Okay. And this is not an early look at the Super Bowl. This thing has been bet on there, have been billions bet on this game already. Right now, I am looking for, I'm looking at

Drafking Sportsbook and looking around the landscape, which is what you're doing. I currently have Kansas City minus one and a half minus 105. And then I have the over under at 48.5. So both the spread and the total have kind of come down a little bit. I got an Eagles plus two. I'll already tell you, I bet that last. I got an Eagles plus two. I don't have a bet on the total in this game. I'm actually leaning to the under, but I don't have a bet on the total. And here is the key.

I'm looking at Drafking Sportsbook. The Eagles plus one and a half, and we're recording this on Wednesday afternoon is minus 1.15. By the time you listen to this, that one and a half might be gone. It might be down to one. And I was listening to some other shows, multiple shows. And Tom, the word on the street is, don't be. be shocked if the Eagles go off as the favorite on Super Bowl Sunday. If you want to bet the Philadelphia Eagles, the time to do so was last week.

But there's still time. Get the point and a half. Get the plus money line. The time is now. It is a chance. This game becomes a pickum or even tilts to the Eagles being favorite. Yeah, David Purdom had a little article up on ESPN going through some of the latest talk that he's here out in Las Vegas.

and he talked to the sports book manager out at Westgate, and he thinks that there's going to be a flood of Eagles money coming later in the week, mostly from the sharp betters. I mean, anybody you listen to, they have the Eagles as the better team in this game. They have the better. They're better at all the skilled position, in all the position groups,

except for quarterback there with Patrick Mooms. But at the end of the day, they're going to go with their numbers, and the numbers are saying the Eagles are the better team here. And we saw this in the AFC championship game. We didn't have a chance to talk about those games because we were down at the senior bowl. But the bills got a flood of money late in the AFC championship game, before the AFC championship game on that Sunday.

And that game, for much the way, it was two, two and a half. The bills were underdogs in that game. And they ended up, a lot of places ended up having them go off as pick them between the bills and chief. So we could see a similar situation here where the sharper betters, looking to get their money down on the Eagles when the limits go up later in the week. That's when the bigger bets go in. So if you're a smaller time better like us, you're putting just, you know, 50 bucks, 100 bucks, whatever you're putting down on the game.

Now will be the time to probably get down on some Eagles just in case this game does go off as closer to pick them. But yeah, I'm with you, Joe. I got the plus two. I also have the first bet I gave out last year, which I'll be doing again next week, and we can get into it in our future podcast. It never stops. Yep, it never stops.

The odds for the Super Bowl are already out for 2026. First bet I gave out last year was the Philadelphia Eagles at 22 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I actually got them at 25 to 1 at ESPN bet. There was a little promo right after the Super Bowl last year. So got that on the line too here. I'm not hedging it. I like my position here with the Eagles here. But I'm also sweating that one out.

So hopefully some subscribers also jumped on that one. So we got a little bit of a sweat here with the Eagles at 22 to 1. So yeah, I have to remind people again, Early Bird Special NFL premium. Tom Broley, once those first Super Bowl futures come out, Tom Broly is going to be going through them. You'll update them throughout free. agency, and we'll talk about them on the podcast as well.

We don't talk about all the plays on this podcast, certainly, but there are plenty up at fantasy points as well. Tom Brolly, we got to pay a couple of bills. When we come back, we're going to talk about some of the props we have in this game, and I have twisted myself into a pressel with a conspiracy theory, and I'm going to throw that off the wall and see if you agree with it. We'll be right back with more for Super Bowl 59. You know, my sheet is the foolish sheet.

I've had here on the best bet show all year. And like I've told you, I am not wise. I'm just a guy. I like to do this recreationally. Tom puts way more effort into it than I do. And good friend Trey, well, speaking of twisting yourself into a pretzel, he's done that. He's won two weeks in a row. We'll hear from him a little bit later in the show, Tom. So I want to go back and forth with you. And I want to start, I'm going to go with what I think is the most likely prop that I have bet so far. I only have one prop with minus odds. Oh, wow. You're doing a lot more than me.

I have, I think four minus. Okay. But a couple plus prices as well. So we'll dig into those. But maybe let's go with a negative price. All right. So you can save a couple of your, you can save a couple of your better bets for the,

for the article up at the website for NFL premium subscribers. But I got four props. I'm going to lay them all out here. And you give me one as well. And I'm just going to start with a very simple one. Patrick Mahomes over 13 and a half longest. rush minus 1-15. I like that one quite a bit. He seems to turn it on in the playoffs. This Eagles defense is really good on third downs because of their coverage. But Patrick Mahomes is

the best in the league at figuring out when to take off when, you know, maybe the pass rush just over pursues them a little bit. And he picks up those 15-yard runs that piss everybody off because he's the fastest slow guy in the NFL. And then, of course, he goes to the sidelines, and we will talk about that in a little bit. But look, the Eagles, this is a team that is given up long runs to mobile and immobile quarterbacks alike. Matthew Stafford, not in the snow game, but earlier this season had a 15-yard run against them, okay?

I don't know the last time Matthew Stafford ran 15 yards all at once. So he had that run against them. That Eagles coverage is excellent down the field. The Chiefs wide receivers are, in my opinion, at a disadvantage against this Eagle secondary. but if those guys get blanketed, that is when we have seen Patrick Mahomes at his best as a runner.

I would be pretty surprised if he doesn't have at least one decently long run to go up and over this 13 and a half yards. Yeah, you got on this kind of a similar bet here with Barclay in the NFC championship game. We liked the longest rush on that one.

He got it on the first carry of the game, but we were a little scared away by the total rushing total. It was up near 130 yards. And that would be my concern. with Mahomes too. Maybe it's just a scramble or two. We both have the Eagles here, but if the Chiefs

would win, that was one of the worst beats I've ever had was the Mahomes Chiefs versus the 49ers quite a few years ago in the Super Bowl and he was well over his rushing total and he took, you know, I think it was about negative 15 yards

on kneel downs at the end of the game to go under the total. And so that would be my concern if you're going to look at that 30 and a half, 31 and a half is what I'm seeing out there 29 and a half at draft So I just look through Some of the game logs here

Five of his last seven Postseason games including against the Eagles The last time in the Super Bowl He's had a run of 15 yards or more So I like this little bet here To look at maybe just the longest rush Compared to overall rushing yards Because yeah his total

It's right in that five and a half Six and a half rushing attempts total So yeah I like this little angle here to go for the longest rush at 13.5. Yeah, so T-Bro, let's go with your most likely, or one of the most likely props you think you have, because then I'm going to all plus odds afterwards. Well, I got Dallas Goddard. I'll give that out here.

That was one of the first bets I gave out last week, just because I knew it was going to get heavy steam here. I gave it out at 45 and a half, but I think it's now 50.5, 51 and a half. But this is one I'd still hit here. 50 and a half, it looks like, is the best number out there at Fandall. So make sure he shop around, get the best number. But he's been really involved here in the postseason. Even back to Week 18, whenever he played a few snaps coming back off of an injury.

And Kansas City, this has been a defense. I've targeted all year for player props, specifically for the tight ends and slot receivers. They like to put those two safeties back deep in the middle of the field, kind of take away the perimeter. So a lot of a lot of pass attempts go or funneled towards the middle of the field here towards tight ends. So they're giving up 70.1 receiving yards per game to the position in the regular season. And Dallas Goddard in this matchup two years ago, had seven targets, had six catches for 60 yards. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar type of playout

for Dallas Goddard in this matchup. So like his over receiving yards. So I got one at plus 220. And this is based on an offensive line matchup. I'm actually diving into the defensive side of the football here for the Philadelphia Eagles. He hasn't had a sack since that aforementioned Rams game in L.A. back on November 24th. But the Chiefs on the left side of the offensive line, obviously they kicked out Joe Tuny to be left tackle. I was listening to my guy Ross Tucker and he said it has not been pretty, but Tooney has gotten the job done at left tackle. But kicking Joe Tooney out to left tackle means they need somebody to fill in at right, left guard.

The impressionist, Mike Calliendo, is in there at left guard right now. Obviously, we know Jalen Carter is the most dangerous player on the defensive side of the football for the Eagles. Now, the matchup there between Jalen Carter and Trey Smith is going to be one of the best matchups of the entire Super Bowl, especially if you like the trench warfare. The question now becomes, can Trey Smith handle Jailen Carter by himself? Does he need help from Creed Humphrey? You would think it's going to be a mix of both. So Jalen Carter typically likes to align over the right guard.

It's just simply where he prefers to play. I think Ross and Greg Kosell mentioned that he played just six snaps over the left guard against the commanders, which is one of his highest totals of the year. The other defensive tackle for the Eagles, the unsung hero, the unheralded hero, who's heading into free agency is Milton Williams. He has five sacks this year. He is going up against Don't Call Me, Frank Calliendo at left guard.

He is plus 220 to register a sack in this game. The Eagles did not sack Mahomes in Super Bowl 57. I think you know that there was some controversy about the sod father and the slippery conditions. Mahomes sacked a couple of times in each of the Chief's first couple playoff games. I think Milton Williams has a decent chance to get to him. I bet him at plus 220 to register a sack in the Super Bowl. I like that one a lot.

Yeah, we're going to be targeting that defensive line going against that interior of the offensive line. So like that one, Joe. I'll give this one out, Xavier Worthy, over his rushing yards. I've talked about this a little bit with John Hanson on his Vsson show. So this one's out there a little bit, five and a half rushing yards. We've seen Xavier Worthy's rule really expand here, basically starting around Thanksgiving time. And it's continued into the postseason. He's coming off a season high, 88% route share.

So he's out there. He's a full-time player now. We've seen it in years past here with these younger receivers. Andy Reid is kind of slow to bring his rookies along. But by the end of the season, once it's the most pivotal time of the year, he starts to play these guys a little bit more. And Worthy has become the receiver that's out on the field the most. And he's getting these design touches for most weeks.

Four out of the last five games, he's gotten two carries, and he's gotten at least 10 rushing yards. So only down game was against the Texans. He had a major negative play in that game where one of the Texans players blew it up way back in the back field. He lost eight yards. But other than that, he's been very heavily involved in the running game. And as you said there, I think there's the weakness of this Chiefs offensive line is in the middle. And that's the strength of the Eagles.

defensive line. So what are you going to do? You're going to just bash your head into the wall with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. Now you're going to get it to your fastest player on your team, try to get them out on the edge. We saw it early in the game against the bills, some designed target slash runs. They ended up counting as runs. So hopefully that's going to be something we're going to watch on these plays. But hopefully they're behind the line of scrimmage and out on the perimeter, giving it Xavier worthy a chance to follow his wide receivers and, you know, tight end, you know, Travis Kelsey or Noah Gray. And hopefully pick up some yardage. So we're looking at Xavier worthy over five and a half rushing yards for my second problem. All right, Tom,

I'm going to go to a long shot here before I, but before I put my conspiracy hat on. Okay. And this is just a pure like one tenth of a unit bet here. Zach Bond to win MVP. plus 8,000. Okay. Turnover machine. And I'm just looking here. I said I kind of like the under in this game. I think the Eagles can slow the Chiefs offense down.

I think Steve Spagnolo, after what happened in the Super Bowl, the last time around is going to have a better plan for Jalen Hertz and the Eagles pass game. The Eagles obviously have a big advantage over their last game when they had they have Sequan vis-a-vis Miles Sanders and Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell as their running backs. So maybe the Eagles play it a little bit closer to the vest. Brett Whitefield disagrees.

He thinks the Eagles need explosive plays in the passing game to get out to a lead so they can pin their ears back. But nonetheless, if the Eagles do pin their ears back, Zach Bonn has been a ballhawk all year, forcing fumbles, recovering fumbles, intercepting passes. If he intercepts a pass and let's just say returns it for a touchdown to put the Eagles up two touchdowns in the third quarter and the Eagles offense doesn't do a ton, I can see a pass. for him, much like it was, who was it Malcolm Smith who won the MVP for the Seattle, for the Seattle in the game against Kansas, against Denver in the New York Super Bowl, you know, something like that makes up two picks, returns one for a touchdown.

I've, crazier things have happened. It's an 80 to one bet, guys, okay? So I'm just giving you. So you're not saying, we shouldn't, I shouldn't put my full unit bet on this to try to to win a unit. Okay. I wouldn't do that. But I'm going to be looking prescient. Like, like, this is just something that, like, I'm throwing out of here on the podcast because if it happens, Trey can plaster it all over social media. And if it doesn't happen, we just forget I talked about it. It's just in the ether. It's gone.

It's the Super Bowl. I'm getting 180 to one bet. I've won a 60 to one bet on the Super Bowl before. That was when there was a safety as the first score in that same Super Bowl, the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl 48. I'm not expecting this to hit, but I could talk myself into the rationale. Yeah, we wish we put a full unit. on that that the safety be the first score we'd be rich men if we had done that i'll give another i'll

give a longer shot here uh before i let you go into your put your tin tin foil hat on here uh for the before we bring on tray as well so this one i don't think the odds are like fantastic but um Travis Kelsey we're going with a little Travis Kelsey here to have the first away team reception which is the Chiefs, at plus 250 at Draft Kings. Bet MGM also has this at plus 250. Make sure you shop this around. He's mostly plus 200, plus 210 at the other books. And I don't like the odds once it gets down to that range.

I'd look for something in the plus 230 range or better. But just going through some of the game logs in the playoffs here recently. We remember the Texans game. They had the quick three and out in that drive, the first drive of the game before the next series. They're like, well, screw it. Let's get our best play here to Travis Kelsey. And I think they ripped off like a 23-yard gain on that play.

And if we look back historically over the last three post seasons, Travis Kelsey has had the first reception in six of the nine games that the Chiefs have played. And I'm also thinking if we look what happened last week, it was a down performance against the bills, kind of quiet. I think they want to get their guy going early. Let's design a quick hitter on first or second down. The Eagles are probably more likely to play man defense,

and that's not the kind of coverage we want for Travis Kelsey. But on the early downs, they're probably more likely to play a little zone coverage. So maybe we can get a little quick hitter for five or six yards on the first or second play of the game to Travis Kelsey. And we also do, you know, fantasy, points data. We track first read targets. He led the Chiefs, 23.7 first read share. So, but if you, we also have the ability to split it out by quarter. And if we look at just the

first quarter specifically, that first read share goes up to 28.1. That's his best first read share of all the quarters that he plays. So I'm just thinking early in the game. We've seen it in the past in the last three years. I think they want to get Travis Kelsey going. I think that also gets the fans going. I mean, he's the, you know, Dayton Taylor Swift. He's, besides Patrick Mahomes, the most popular player on the Chiefs. So if you want to get that crowd involved early, let's get a quick target on first or second down against the zone covers against the Eagles here. So I'm taking plus 250 for Travis Kelsey to have the first reception. That's at Draft Kings and BetMGM. All right, Tom, I've been workshopping this. And if you follow me on Twitter.

Are you in the lab with Trey? You guys were hanging out last week. This just kind of came to me. I don't know, like an archangel, you know, just showing up and announcing this to me. I saw this yesterday when the NFL Referees Association, the executive director of the NFL Referees Association, Scott Green, put out a statement because Roger Goodell getting asked about the officials helping the Chiefs and Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes, some troll, as always, infiltrates Super Bowl Media Day and asked them about. it and you know now now it's like oh my god they're going to motivate them and all that stuff well

i took this a different way here is what scott green said quote it is insulting and preposterous to hear conspiracy theories that somehow 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officials are colluding to assist one team agreed i think that's preposterous i think it's completely outrageous and while i believe you know that there's two things you can believe here number one there is Absolutely no conspiracy to favor the chiefs, okay? There's no, like, top-down conspiracy. You must call this penalty in favor of the chiefs. That does not exist.

The game is not fixed. Number two, you can still believe Patrick Mahomes gets a friendly whistle. And I do. And here is the thing. Even if number one doesn't exist, and I don't believe it does, just imagine, just imagine, if a bad game change, call goes against the Eagles late in this game. Or at any point, a bad game changing call that prevents the Eagles from getting a sack

or an interception or a third down stop and then the Chiefs go on to score. Just imagine that. Now, because even if this thing doesn't exist, we live in a world where if it has been spoken, people believe it. And there is a level of truth to Mahomes getting a friendly whistle. We know that. Like Michael Jordan in the 90s. Yeah, right.

those in-between calls, he gets those. The only people arguing against it are Chiefs fans who are like, well, no, well, no, like we're not denying the greatness. Maybe some are, you know, some are arguing in bad faith. But I think you could say in good faith that Patrick Mahon's gets a friendly whistle and there's no conspiracy to favor the Chiefs. The Chiefs are just really good and just they're the team that can take advantage of the penalty being called.

That being said, the NFL is dreading, absolutely dreading a personal foul being called on Patrick Mahomes or a bad pass interference call bailing out an interception, something like that in this game. On the other hand, I don't think they can sit there and say, hey, guys, favor the Eagles in this game and then put their thumb on the other scale, you know? So here is my bet that I am making based on this cockamamie scheme that makes a lot of sense to me. I am betting under 79.5 penalty yards plus 140.

you would have to shop around. I got it in an offshore book. Sounds like the conspiracy theorist already got to the over on that one. It's juiced heavily to the over. Under 79.5 penalty yards. And now I went back and I didn't go through all the Super Bowls. But I do remember there were not many whistles in that Eagles Patriots Super Bowl a number of years back. There was only 40 penalty yards in that game.

Now, I understand one long, obvious pass interference penalty can blow this entire bed up. But my thinking is that the official. in this game are going to swallow their whistles. Okay. And they're only going to call obvious penalties. And you look at it from like a wider scope, too. This is going to be the most viewed event of all of 2025. Do you think they want their fans to sit there watching the officials take the limelight

and, you know, they're throwing 20 flags and the pace of the game is slow and there's not a whole lot of action. So I think just even looking at it from just that perspective, I think, they want these officials to let the game play out. These are the two best teams. Joe, while you were talking there, I pulled up some numbers. Most, you know, the NFL's, you know, team penalty yards per game here. Both of these teams are in the top five in penalty yards per game. As in, you know, they're not, they're not getting called.

Yeah, they're not getting called for a lot of penalties. Eagles are at 45.1 yards per game and the Chiefs are at 46.3. So, yeah, as you said, the past interference calls are the, that's the big one, right? Yeah. So, but if we look at how the chiefs are playing offense right now, you know, not a whole lot of, not a whole lot of downfield shots. A couple of Marquise Brown. They've gone to more of a dink and dunk style.

So, I don't see, you know, unless the Eagles, you know, anything can happen. But so I think that plays well for your bet. And, you know, the Eagles, hopefully, Sequin Barclay kind of dominates and they can just run the ball. And they're not taking a whole bunch of deep shots down the field. So I like this one. The conspiracy theorist, as I said, sounds like they've already gotten to this over, though, juicing it up. So you've got a nice little plus price for your bet.

Yeah. So, yeah, I understand it's under both, if you combine their two averages, it's under that. But I think maybe a little bit of a tighter whistle in the postseason. and also, man, and you have to think of it from the other angle, right? Oh, hey, guys, call everything, right? And can you imagine 25 flags flying in the Super Bowl when people are talking about the refs all week? So that's why I'm saying like, hey, guys, no conspiracy here, but tighten the whistle a little bit.

Just don't blow it unless you're sure. Oh, and by the way, I wouldn't be shocked if the sky judge is a little bit more, even if they don't tell us. I wouldn't be shocked if the Sky Judge is a little bit more. He's like the, he's like the board in severance, the unheard authority figure, right? Just like he is out there and he is saying,

hey, that wasn't valid. Don't call that. Don't call that. Yeah, so there is conspiracy dolan there. I like it. Trey's going to love that bet.

I guarantee it he's been listening in the background here. He probably already fired off the under bet. I'm sure he'd love that one. So here's what we're going to do, T-Brill. I want to remind everybody to check out all of your best bets for Super Bowl 59 up at FantasyPoints.com, NFL premium subscription, 20% off up through Super Bowl Sunday, the cheapest price you will get all year. And then once people do that, have them pause this and take a deep breath because on a winning streak is good friend Trey, and he is going to impart his wisdom on the best bet show when we come back. Trey, I had a lot of bad influence from you this year.

And it is finally, I have fully talked myself into this bet, this under 79.5 penalty yards. I think it makes way too much sense. And I feel like I'm being the nut on the podcast with an 80 to one bet and now this bet. And you're a guy who's been playing straight edge here. And you're on a two game winning streak, man. Congratulations. Thank you. Yeah.

On the straight and narrow, you know, trying to keep it tight. And keep the money flowing. So last week, my podcast plays went three and no, you know, not too shabby. Got that little sweat with the P. Rhine late. But he got it done for me. Yeah, got the James Cook touchdown early and Cream Hunt was never end out. So, yeah, it was a good two out of three guaranteed. And then, yeah, we got the little sprinkle late.

We got that little Pyrine late and life's good. So I lost a couple other bets that I didn't throw on the pod. So up a unit and a half this week. So feeling good about it. Can't complain. Can't complain. And that begs the question, though. Did you dig anything up?

Did you have the bunsen burners going for the Super Bowl? I mean, there's a lot of bets out there, Trey. You've got to be going crazy this week. I'll say this. I sat down in the lab and I said, I'm going to let it fly this week. I'm going to bet so many different things. I'm going to have to take a loan to bet all these different bets. and when I finished the research, I only came back with two plays.

Wow. Discretion. And like I said, I'm on the straight and arrow. I'm trying to dial it back, trying to be smart here. So, yeah, I just have the one main play. I got a little bonus touchdown bet. And then I got something I want to bring up a little bit later. I kind of looked at the, I saw a little something on fan, do I want to get your opinion on?

But the first bed that I'm taking a stab at this week is D'Andre Hopkins over 10. and a half receiving yards. I got that at minus 110, bet 365. I think the lowest total now is 11.5. Basically everywhere. Yeah, it's just, this is, I believe, the highest game total of the Chiefs have played in this year. And like you guys have mentioned, you know, this may by the end of the week actually become a situation where the Eagles are favored.

So it's sounding like in all ways the Chiefs are going to have to pull out all the stops. I know they say that a lot with these overs, but they're going to have to pull out all the stops. And I do like the fact that this is kind of a legacy game for DeAndre Hopkins, maybe more than than anybody else on the team. I know the Snapshare's gone down. I know Hollywood Browns a little bit more in the mix there. He did go over 10 and a half last week on one catch.

So that's your hope. He's got that little floor. Hopefully it just would take him one catch to get over this 10 and a half. But yeah, the legacy game would like. to see DeAndre Hopkins have a have a big night at the Super Bowl. So for the first bet, give me DeAndre Hopkins over 10 and a half receiving yards. Yeah, I mean, this number has plummeted since the beginning of the posties. I bet on him in the first game that they played in the divisional round, his number was around 30 yards. His, his route share has fallen

dramatically here. Juju Smith-Schuster has jumped ahead of him. But, you know, maybe with two weeks off here. And I think with the, you know, the Eagles playing a lot of zone coverages. I haven't broken down in my game hub here. DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 2.07 yards against cover four and cover six, which are coverages that the Eagles run a lot. So even if he just gets out there for 10 to 15 routes based on those numbers, he should he should get to that number. Yeah, totally agree. My bonus touchdown bet here, not a lot of analysis needed. I'm going to go with Jalen Hertz. Anytime touchdown, I got this at a minus 105, bet MGM. I think I saw there's a minus 110 out there at Fandul at this point, but not a lot of analysis needed here.

If you're looking for a touchdown score for the Eagles, it's two guys. It's Sequan Barclay and it's Jalen Hertz. And on bet MGM, Seekwans up to minus 200. So you got a guy that I got at minus 105 versus a guy at the time was at minus 180. you know, the latte model actually likes Jalen Hertz more than Saquan Barclay, that, you know, for what it's worth. It's hard to like anybody more than Saquan Barclay at this point in time. But yeah, pretty basic stuff.

I'm going to like Jalen Hertz getting into the end zone. And I believe the last time they met in the Super Bowl was a three rushing touchdown. So not that that means anything, but he did find the end zone a few times back then. So yeah, I'll take Jailen Hertz. Yeah, this is one I've also jumped in on. I gave it out as a play. Chris hasn't projected for 0.82 touchdowns. And the odds basically imply it's a 51% chance that he scores a touchdown.

So just looking at our numbers, based on the implied odds, it looks like a no-brainer play. We got a total it's 48.5, 49 points. So there's going to be a lot of touchdown scored. So I would get this in one in now, though. If you're listening now, minus 105. Trey and I were actually talking offline. we thought this would be closer to minus 130, minus 135. So, but once the, the public does come in here later this week,

I could see this one getting up to that close to that range. I don't know if it will, but I could see it closing like minus 125. So if you want to get a little more value for your bet, get that bet in now. I got to ask, where the hell is good friend Trayvon, man? What are these sensible plays that you're like, you just need one play to hit them? I don't, I'm kind of upset, man. And I had to wear the hat on this show. Well, I got some good news.

Okay. First piece of good news is your conspiracy theory kind of led me to look at this, this opportunity, we'll call it on Fandual. I want to get both your guys' opinions on this. Okay. All right. Now, I would be hesitant to bet either one of these by themselves. But together, separately, I think there might be some room to make a play here.

Fanduil has a player to record one plus receiving yard special going on right now. You got Patrick Mahomes at plus 2,200 and Jalen Hertz at plus 2,500. You guys saw the Phillies special. You know how this goes. One receiving yard for a quarterback? Not out of the realm of possibility. What would you guys think about betting a little bit on each side of this? I'll let Joe handle this one.

We kind of broke this down a little bit in our prop contest podcast. Yeah. So now look, like you did say it is the Super Bowl. So some things are out the window. I believe a reporter asked Andy Reid about a trick play a little bit earlier this week and he said, we'll see. What else is he going to say? You know, we're going to say, oh yeah. We got we're running one on. We're playing the game. Yeah. And then or no, we're playing pro set the entire game, you know, like what's he going to say? But neither one of these teams has had a non-quarterback attempt to pass this year. So they've been saving it. That's how you can talk yourself into it. So in our prop pool, we have an over two and a half players to attempt to pass,

which also, by the way, accounts for an injury or a blowout, you know, when, you know, maybe a team's down 31 to 10 late and they bring in the backup quarterback. You know, that accounts for that. But that is, mostly it's for a trick play. And, hey, maybe we could have a Josh Allen situation or, you know, maybe there's the, what's the, you know, the Marcus Mariotta scored a touchdown on his own pass. Yeah. Brett Farr's first completion was to himself.

We could have a lateral situation at the end of the game where one team is throwing it all around the field and a quarterback gets it and runs it forward for a yard. So I mean, that's always normal. I think it is possible. It's a fun bet for the Super Bowl. So I can't exactly knock it. Sounds like I've got a lot of outs. So maybe I'll maybe I'll add that to add that to the sheet,

even though I'm on the straight and narrow, maybe I'll, make an exception there. And one other exception I'm making. I'm going to be with the guru tomorrow. Well, today, as you're hearing this, and I'm reaching back in my bag of trips. I'm going to cook up a little bit of slop for the folks. So he asked me to come on and give him a parlay.

And I said, I'm not that guy anymore. You know, what's the, what's the, say no to the guru. So you can't. What's the, I think you should leave? I used to be a piece of shit, you know, not anymore. But now I'm going back to my old ways.

I'm going to give him a parlay. So make sure to tune in there. I believe Tom you'll be on at some point as well. I think we'll have a Trey Tom lineup on Thursday on the Vason show. It's also on 156, I think, on Sirs XM. So tune in and hear Trey. I'll probably be giving out a lot of the same bets that I just gave out on this show. But you can listen to me anyway.

I'll try to cook up something sick. I'll try to make it real nasty. I mean, he hasn't even cooked it up yet. Now, you can tune in on YouTube TV to V-Sin as well if you have the sports package and see if Good Friend Trey's hair is going to be slicked back or pushed back when he's on with the guru on V-Sin. It is Super Bowl 59, guys. I hope everybody enjoys the big game,

and mostly I hope everybody wins some money. That's Good Friend Trey, Tom Brawley. I'm Joe. Take it easy, everyone. Happy Super Bowl.