Fantasy Football Daily - Super DUPER Wild Card Weekend + New Year, New Trey | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Everyone, it is wild card weekend. It is frigid here in South Carolina. We're supposed to get some snow this weekend. And Tom Broly, it is a reflection of how my best bets have been. I have personally chilled down the entire state of South Carolina with my best bets over the last number of weeks. But the playoff season, a new year is a new opportunity for us to start making some scratch. weekend all the best bets all the ats i'm going to have my i i made the awful decision to do these dolin teasers which have been ice cold for me but hey look as i say on the program we're not wise we're just guys so i mean we're here to entertain if you want to back us if you want to fade us i mean that's all up to you but we're going to talk about it anyway tom brolly what's going on man uh saturday sunday monday we've got games every day you're looking at

looking fresh there with the I know with clean shaving here I'm going down to Miami for for the orange bowl on Thursday so we're recording this a little earlier than usual but figured I would take my beard off and look a little respectable heading out of the northeast here so looking forward to getting out of this cold it is you think it's cold in south Carolina it was 16 degrees this morning when I woke up so uh hoping for a little warmth and actually looks like the weather's going to be pretty good for these games this this weekend on super we're going super wildcard weekend. What's the NFL doing anymore? Is it wild card weekend? I don't know if they know there was a lot of wild card weekend anyway. I know there was a lot of pushback whenever they

started the super wildcard. People are just like just call wild card. You know, so I don't, I don't know if the NFL is officially going just back to wild card weekend. But it is a fun little stretch of playoff games here. We've got a college football on Thursday, college football playoff on Friday and then three dites of NFL playoff football. So meaningful football for five straight days here looking forward to it. A lot of opportunities to lay some wagers here. I will tell you, I will not be watching college football on Friday if Penn State doesn't win on Thursday. I will forget college football exists. Even if you get the text message at halftime that Texas is up like 10 points on Ohio State, maybe then you'd flip it on to see that. Maybe I'll flip it, flip it on.

But so yeah, all right. So here we go. It's 36 degrees right now in South Carolina. Now look, if you see there, I got the snow indicator on Saturday. How often do you see that down there? Not very. It has snowed a grand total of two times in the five, now going on five years that I've lived here. Now, one time it was like eight inches and it was frigid and it just stayed for like two weeks. and it got all hard. And that's why I hate snow. But of course, definitely down here, it just absolutely, they don't know how to take care of it. No, I was going to say,

they're not probably prepared for it and probably not worth their time to have a bunch of equipment to remove it all. So let's start with a game where weather will not be a factor. We're going to go on Saturday here, Tom, and I'll be honest. I don't have a bet on the Saturday games.

We're going to start with, I mean, the official team of the 430 Saturday slot, the Houston Texans are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers here. The Chargers are favored on the road by two and a half. I'm looking at Draft Kings right now. Two and a half, 42 and a half the total. The Texans obviously limping into the playoffs. However, they did get their starting offense a series in week 18, marched right down the field, carrying some momentum into the wild card round against the LA Chargers.

Yeah, I like the Chargers in this one. This is one of the, I bet I put three ATS picks down on Monday, my initial ATS bets for the week. They've not been doing very well this week. Sorry to anybody that backed me with the Kansas City Chiefs last week, not even a chance in hell of that cover. So step by, you know, this is, I'm limping into the postseason here with the AT. TTS picks. You might want to follow me on the player props, but I do like the Chargers here.

This is a Texan team. I've been kind of looking to fade whenever I could get opportunities. And this is one of them here. I like the Chargers. They're playing pretty good ball here the last couple of weeks, dominated the Patriots and Raiders. So I'm liking the Chargers going on the road here. Jim Harbaugh has been pretty good for his backers so far this season. So I'm looking looking at the charges. Make sure you can get the two and a half, though. It's one of these lines. It's 2.75.

It's been bouncing between two and a half and three most of the weeks. So make sure you get the best of the line, no matter what side you're betting. But if you want to back me with the chargers here, let's get them minus two and a half. The Texans, I mean, they lost Tank Dell a couple of weeks ago, down to Nico Collins as the only threat at receiver right now. Joe Mixen has lost a lot of steam as well.

This rushing attack has not been very effective in recent weeks. And I think this Chargers offense has found another gear with J.K. Dobbins back in the lineup. Gus Edwards was not doing the job at running back. And they tried Kamani Vidal a little bit, Hassan Haskins. But with Dobbins back in the lineup, it was against two lesser foes, but the offense has looked a lot better here. So expecting the Chargers, They have a little bit of experience as well.

It's been a couple of years. They played Jacksonville and, you know, they obviously blew that game. But I'm going to back Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert here, minus two and a half on the road here. The one is that the only road favorite I think we have this weekend? The Minnesota Vikings are favorite on the road. And we'll talk about that on the Monday night. That one is going to be a fascinating game. Yeah, that one, this is Wednesday when we're recording.

We're starting to see some Rams favorite in that spot. It depends on what book you're looking at. So there has been. Oh, we got a split favorite in the playoffs. Yeah, that's a fun one there. So, but the one solid favorite here on the road here is the charges and I'm going to back them. Well, Tom, then on Saturday night, Amazon Prime, your stees are heading on the road to take on the ratbirds. The Ravens are laying nine and a half at home, which is a reflection of, I think more so what's been happening to the stees of late. They've lost five in a row as they're limping into the playoffs.

their offense has not been good at all. That being said, a key injury for the Baltimore Ravens, Zay Flowers. Lamar Jackson's favorite target, his best target, is not expected to play this weekend. And according to reports, there's only really a chance he plays in the divisional round if the Ravens do advance. So we did see some tens here. Nine and a half, it's bounced back down. So when it gets to 10, there has been some buyback on the Steelers. I don't know if you have a wager on this one, Tom, if it's too emotional.

for you. But the Ravens are favored by nine and a half. They are the biggest favorite of wild card weekend. Yeah, I'm staying away from this one. But if I was making a way to probably be on the Ravens here, try to get it under the double digits here under 10 points. They played this game just a few weeks ago, right before Christmas, Pittsburgh was on the road in Baltimore, much different line, seven, seven and a half in that game. So this one, you know, the numbers between seven and ten aren't as meaningful as some other numbers, but just the fact that this has moved two points, three, two and a half, three points.

It shows you just the difference between these two teams right now. It's just a couple of weeks apart. And that's, as you said, with Zayflowers out of the lineup here, down a meaningful weapon for the Ravens. And this line has still moved significantly towards Baltimore. That game a couple of weeks ago, they didn't even have George Pickens as well. well. He was out of the lineup for that game. So even with Pickens back, this line has moved significantly.

So it just tells you what the market thinks of the Steelers right now and what it's thinking about the Ravens. This is a Ravens team that is picking up a lot of momentum heading into the postseason. They dominated the Texans, 31-2 on Christmas Day and then easily put away the Browns. It has 20-point favorites, although Lamar Jackson was a little shaky in that game. but yeah, I would like the Ravens a little bit more, but I got a prop for this game. I got Calvin Austin over his receiving yards. I gave it out at 20 and a half.

I think the best number out there is still 21.5. I still like it in the low 20s here. I think Fandals at 23 and a half, but playing a lot of snaps out there for a lot of routes. Four of his five best route shares have come in the last four weeks. So he's basically like a 75 to 80% route shared type of guy here. So he's out in the field plenty. And he had a lot of success in this matchup with Pickens out a couple of weeks ago. Went for four catches in 65 yards. So

if Pickens is going to be a no show or whatever he's doing this week, I think this week they're going to come in, come with a couple of design plays for, you know, design downfield shots for Calvin Austin. I'd like this number just the fact that he's out there so much. I think he goes over this number. So in our coverage matchup grade is down on the on our fantasy points data right now, but we don't have the the postseason stuff. But if you go back to week 16, you can go back to previous matchups and get the grade here. And Calvin Austin has the best grade in this matchup, 10% upgrade for him against the Baltimore secondary. So looking at Calvin Austin over his receiving yards. Okay, T, bro. I, you know, I think I buried the lead here on the podcast.

after a couple weeks sabbatical trying to get things right mentally trying to get back in the game. Good friend, Trey, will join us later and give the people something to fade. But for now, we're going to pay some bills, and we'll come back to talk about the Sunday and Monday slate of games. You know, Tom Brawley, sometimes with these playoff games, you've got to go back to old adages, not dig too far into the numbers and not dig too far, you know, trying to outsmart yourself. because the books are going to set sharp lines for the playoffs. You know, like that's why a lot of college football betters like to bet the Mac and the Mountain West because like maybe the books aren't paying as much attention as they are

to the Big Ten and the SEC. In the NFL, the books are sharp anyway. But in the playoffs, they're going to be especially sharp. So I'm getting back to like kind of that primal instinct and going to the well here. We've got four games here on Sunday and Monday. We've got two rookie quarterbacks going on the road. We have Bo Nicks traveling to Buffalo, a little cold weather action there with Buffalo, going to be below freezing there.

Not too windy, it doesn't look like just yet, but we're going to Buffalo in the cold weather. The bills laying eight and a half points at home to the Denver Broncos. Buffalo, I'll just flat out tell you, I think Josh Allen's turned into Superman at the right times this year. I don't know if Buffalo's the best team in the AFC, but they're my pick to go to the Super Bowl, and I think the Buffalo Bills come out and they blow out the Denver Broncos. Denver's been very tough, a much better team than I anticipated, and Sean Payton has them playing exceptionally well.

You know, Marvin Mims has emerged as a really important player for them over the last month, but I am just going to lay it the eight and a half with the Buffalo Bills at home. I actually got a minus eight. That's not that huge a number, but you know, two point conversion can come into play here. But I got them at minus eight. I am laying it with the Buffalo Bills at home against a rookie quarterback in Bonax. I think Buffalo comes out well rested after resting their starters and really takes care of business here. As Sean McDermott looks to get over the hump and get his team to the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I've been really torn on this one. I think I'm leaning towards the bills, but I have been awfully impressed with Bo Nicks, last couple of weeks. But this is a step up here, obviously, even from just a couple of weeks ago playing Cincinnati. Although Buffalo's defense, it has been a little leaky the last couple of weeks, but maybe the time off, maybe they straightened some things up and got a little healthier by being able to rest some of their key players. So I didn't have a real strong take on this spread. So I'll trust you on the Buffalo Bill's side of this one. But I do have a prop on this one. I am going back to the well here. Anybody that's followed the props the last couple of weeks

knows we've been hitting Marvin Mims every week here. We're doing it again. The line is still too low here. I just talk to you talking about him. Yeah, Mark Vim. Yeah, I love him. He's been, I still wish he was out in the field a little bit more. Sean Payton still refuses to give him a 50% route share or better. But at least when he's out in the field, he's getting targets and he's getting game planned in. So I got it at 36. and a half. Give it out on our Discord Tuesday night. It looks like 38.5 is the best number out there still. We have him projected for about 52 yards. So I like this up into the low 40s, maybe even to like 44 and a half, 45 and a half, if you're listening to this later in the week.

He's been at 44 yards or more in six of his last seven games. And the yards per route numbers and the targets per route numbers are fantastic. Averaged 2.78 yards per route run and 28% target share whenever he's running a route. So extremely involved. The route shares still aren't where we want them, but they've been the best they've been. Three out of the last four games, three of his best route shares have come in that span. So matchup also looks all right here. Bills play a lot of too high coverage and he gets a lot of these underneath targets,

averaging 2.67 yards per route run against two high safeties and a 27% Routch targets per route run share. So everything's kind of lining up here. Guy has a lot of momentum. So I'm looking for Marvin Mims to stay very involved in this passing game. That's where I'm looking for this contest. Green Bay travels to Philadelphia for the 430 Sunday slate. The Eagles, I think Tom opened at 3, 3.5.

That's up to four and a half. It touched five and a half for a little bit. It did touch five and a half, yeah. And I think that's a reflection of A number one. I think the Eagles are really good. But number two, the Packers are quite literally limping into the playoffs. They've had major injuries on both sides of the football. Jair Alexander is out for the season.

Christian Watson is now out for the season. Jordan Love banged his elbow and didn't return to that game against the Bears. And they ended up losing to the Bears. There's Jaden Reed. I don't know what the hell is going on with this guy. If you'll remember, he had a big game in week one against the Eagles, but that was before the Eagles put Cooper de Gene in the slot. And that Eagle defense, really one of the best units in the league.

I do not have a wager on this game, Tom. If I was going to bet it, I would lean to the Eagles. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm heavily leaning towards the Eagle side. It does feel like, you know, we're kind of buying this number at the highest possible price, though. So if this was just a couple of weeks ago, Eagles probably would have been, as you said, about three-point favorites. But because of the situations going on, Green Bay, this line has been bumped up a little bit. So it's a little bit higher than I'd like to get this at.

But I did find a prop. Hopefully this is still out there later in the week. Jordan Love, under 33 and a half passing attempts. Don't take a whole lot of unders, but this one stuck out like a sore thumb. We haven't projected for 26 attempts this week. So we're well under this number. If you look at the last eight games, he has not topped 30 attempts in a single game. So we know Green Bay's offense, it's been, you know, ranks 30th in pass rate over expectation.

If you look at Philadelphia's defense, they rank 27th in pass rate over expectation. So teams aren't even trying to throw the ball on the Eagles as well, even though the Eagles are playing from ahead quite a bit. So if we look at that, this is all kind of lining up here. And we know Seekwon Barclay in this Eagles running game has been very effective at playing keepaway when they have a lead late in the game. As a Steelers fan, I remember that it was a 10 minute drive that the Eagles went on to ice the game against the Steelers in the fourth quarter. So the Eagles running game is certainly capable of keeping the ball away from the other team. So looking at Jordan Love here, as long as this game stays. relatively close within a score or two.

I think he easily goes under this number at 33 and a half. Hopefully it stays here. But I would bet this down to 31 and a half. That's about where I would draw the line here. One thing that if you're interested in, and obviously Saquan Barclay's props are going to be sky high, always something that's going to be difficult to hit. One thing that I would point out,

if you're into Saquan Barkley and you're into this Eagle run game, Dallas Goddard came back last week. And now obviously he caught a bunch of passes, you know, from Tanner McKee and just, you know, kind of getting his legs under him for the playoffs. But do not underestimate how much better a blocker he is than the Eagles backup tight ends. They can run split zone with Dallas Goddard and really open up some holes. So maybe some Sequan Barkley over the longest rush prop. Again, those are going to be sky high.

but you can see him busting off a long one here in this game. So, yeah, I lean to the Eagles, but Dallas Goddard coming back, remember the Eagles are about as healthy as they've been all season long. So, yeah, I just lean Philadelphia. I think it's a really tough draw for a Green Bay team that's essentially limping into the playoffs. I actually have a Dallas Goddard prop as well. I forgot that I had it on my list. I'll give it out here.

Why not? Over 33 and a half yards. I thought this would open in the mid-40s, closer to 37-5. 38 and a half. So I think there's a little bit of value here. Green Bay has been giving up production to tight ends for most of the year, giving up the eighth most receiving yards per game to the position. And the coverages that Green Bay likes to roll out here,

Dallas Goddard has done very well against. They play a lot of cover three and cover four. About 59% of the time. And Goddard averages 2.84 yards per route run and a 28% target share on those routes. So 90, just 95 routes. So it is a little bit smaller sample. All the Eagles numbers are bit inflated because, you know, they like to run the ball so much. And not a whole lot of routes run, but they have a lot of success through the air.

But Goddard's numbers really popped against cover three and cover four here. So hopefully, A.J. Brown and Devonsa Smith, give a, give Dallas Goddard a couple of targets in this game. And I think he gets over this 33.5. I want to remind everybody that fantasy points.com is now the cheap. it will be for the entire 2025 season. No strings attached. If you go to fantasy points and you subscribe for the 2025 season, not only do you get all of the 2025 season, but you get all of our playoff content for 2024, including Tom Brawley's best bets, or DFS content. If you subscribe to NFL premium are all in, you will be really glad you did. It is 20% off. No code necessary. It is our

early bird special now through Super Bowl Sunday. Go sign up. Tom, the other game on Sunday. The final game on Sunday, Sunday night is Washington at Tampa Bay. And I want to start this with a with a question just in general. The interesting thing is both the Saturday afternoon and Saturday, excuse me, Sunday afternoon and Sunday night games are week one rematches. How much do you look at that when you're, when you're going into? Because that, to me, that's an eternity ago. I would a little bit if they were two like veteran teams like, but this match, up here. Like the Green Bay one and the Eagles one,

I can't, I got to throw that one out as well because it was such a weird, you know, they were playing down in Brazil. The field was trash. Yeah. Exactly. The playing surface was,

you know, awful. And so normally if it was like the Packers and Eagles in a normal, you know, situation, maybe I take that into account a little bit. But, yeah,

this one on Sunday night, Jaden Daniels, it was his first professional start against the Buccaneers. So, you know, he's, you know, certainly come a long way since then. And so I don't really take too much into account there. Even if you look at the Buccaneers side, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, two key rookies for their offense. We're barely involved at that point. You know, Chris Goblin, Rashad White were in prominent rules at that point.

So Eagles, Packers won. I'd probably take a little more stock in compared to this commanders and Buccaneers game. Okay, T-Bro, let's talk about the game, though. Commanders plus three on the road. I actually got this at three and a half. I misread that. But I'm just going back to the old adage. You know, I have been impressed by Jane Daniels.

The guy's going to win rookie of the year. I'm not trying to knock Jane Daniels. But, you know, I think the game that a lot of people point to that Eagles game a couple weeks ago, I will sit here and tell you, if they were playing the Eagles in round one, you couldn't set the line high enough for me to bet the Eagles in that game. That is not the case this week, but the game was a fluke. You know, like Jalen Hertz goes out on the first drive, C.J. Gardner Johnson gets tossed, and then they come back and win the game.

Last week, Marcus Mariotta quarterbacks the commanders to a victory, but this over an awful Dallas Cowboys team that had been just quit. I've got to quit. Yeah, they played Trey Lance. They'd Tray Lance, so they didn't have to pay Cooper Rush his, his, uh, bonus area, his due. And then two weeks ago, the Atlanta Falcons game, Raheem Morris putting his, his timeouts in, uh, in, in, in savings. He saved him to get an interest rate on him. Like, I don't know what the he's thinking. Um, like, so, like, just kind of three, hard to repeat victories for, uh, the commanders,

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers limped to a victory, but they got Mike Evans' record. They got that momentum. They got that huge locker room moment after kind of getting scared by the New Orleans Saints, a team they were two touchdown favorites against. That being said, I think Tampa Bay comes out here, and the defense worries me against Jaden Daniels and Terry McLaren, but I think the Buccaneers' offense gets it done. Got to check the status of Marshawn Lattimore.

I am laying three and a half with the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, I've also made a teaser. I'm teasing both the Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills. I have the Buccaneers T's to plus two and a half, and I have the Buffalo Bills tease to minus two. So I am doubling up on those games. I am going all in against the rookie quarterbacks on the road. I'm back in this rookie rookie quarterback.

Maybe you're making a good bet the way I'm running with my ATS picks the last like six or seven weeks here. It's been pretty rough here. I lean more towards these underdogs and the favorites have been cleaning up the last month or two. But I think they have a little bit of magic here. I think they're going to continue to keep this game.

I don't know if they're necessarily going to win, but I like getting the hook here. I could see another close game between these two teams. It wasn't so close in the opener, but I think Commander, yeah, that doesn't matter too much. But Jaden Daniels has also been pretty good to me so far this year. I got an offensive rookie of the year. ticket out on him at 14 to 1.

So we're waiting to cash that one in here once the award season comes around here in a couple of weeks. So I am on the commander side here. But I do like a prop. It kind of goes against my bet a little bit. But Bucky Irving over his rushing yards. The number out there that I got was 84.5. It looks like it's in the mid-80s and some other books. but make sure you shop around, get the best number.

Yeah, 84.5 is out there at Ben MGM on a Wednesday. 87.5 is like the max right now. So like this up into the low 90s. We haven't projected for about 102 yards. But that backfield last week, Joe, I'm sure you noticed. Rashad White completely iced in that game. Zero touch, zero opportunities. All of a sudden, this backfield is all Bucky Irvings.

matchup, it lines up perfectly. He's going to be a popular play in one and duns and in playoff contest this week. Washington gives up the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt and the fourth most rushing yards per game at 113.8. And that's the running back.

So he actually played pretty well in this matchup at the start of the season 2, 6.9 yards per carry, limited opportunities. But this backfield is his now. They're in the postseason. They're not wasting touch. on Rashad White anymore. This is Bucky's backfield.

So we're taking his over 84.5. I think he should be lined with the other top backs this weekend. I think, you know, right behind Derek Henry and Sequin Barclay. So I think we're getting about a 10 to 12 yard discount on Bucky Irving right now in the low to mid 80s. Tom, there's a game on Monday night. And let me tell you, I'm sure there is a great betting opportunity on this game. I don't know what it is, though, because I am not a wise guy. and we have the Minnesota Vikings.

We're looking at a split favorite here. I'm looking at draft kings minus one and a half. You said the Rams are favored in some spots. And we are talking about two teams that the last impressions, not exactly the best. Sam Donald was atrocious in the Sunday night game against Detroit last week. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford and the Rams starters rested in week 18. He hasn't gone over 200 yards passing since outdoors.

Josh Allen a month ago. So he has one touchdown pass over the last month. Kind of both of these teams not playing great as of right now, but we got the Vikings, I think, laying one and a half. We got the Rams favored in some spots. Tom, what's your read on this game? Yeah, this one could end up being a little more defensive battle than maybe people are expecting, but I do like the Rams here. I gave him out early in the week at plus two and a half. I would, you know, I'd probably take this down to about a pick-em. I have in the article plus one and a half, but I would take it down closer to pick them. So, but as you said, this is a split line here.

Probably, you know, maybe it stays that way for the rest of the week here. Limits will be going up for individual better. So maybe we'll see where this line moves in the next couple of days. But I do, I lean towards the Rams here. I'm taking the points with them. We saw this matchup earlier this season. This was a week eight. Thursday night game. So, you know,

there's another little wrinkle thrown into one of these previous matchups. Since it was a Thursday night, Minnesota came down to Los Angeles. Similar type of situation. Los Angeles was two and a half point underdogs in that one. Ended up winning outright, 30 to 20. That was the controversial ending. Minnesota got the ball back with a chance to, I believe, tie it or, you know, do something. And Sam Darnold had his face mask grabbed in the end zone.

should have been a 15-yard penalty and a first down. That was that long ago? Yes, it was. Week 8. That was a great game. One of the better Thursday night games of the season. And we'll see. I think the Rams defense has played much better in recent weeks.

The rookie defensive linemen could be issues here for this Minnesota Vikings. Not only Sam Darnold struggled last week, but I think that offensive line struggled. And, you know, this is a road game. So it's not the, you know, it's not an intimidating home crowd. But I still think the Rams will have opportunities to create some chaos for Sam Darnold. And I also think the week off for the Rams, I think that they were getting criticized in a little bit for sitting their older players and some of their key players for seating purposes. They could have improved their seed.

But they elected to, you know, sit some. guys. And I think the way the Cooper Cup ended the season, I mean, it looks like he has dead legs right now. So give him a week off, let him rest up a little bit. Matthew Stafford, a little bit of an older player too, taking a lot of hits, rest up that arm a little bit. Let it, you know, take some, take a couple of days off. So I'm hoping that this, you know, the week off, help the Rams get a little healthier on offense and maybe it helps their, this group that's really struggled, as you said, since that Bill's game. We thought,

oh boy, this Rams team, maybe they're one of the, they can beat anybody, yeah. Yeah, they could be a dark horse Super Bowl, Super Bowl contender and hasn't looked that way the last couple of weeks. But maybe the week off gives this older offense, a little bit more juice here heading into the postseason. Tom, I can tell good friend Trey is absolutely chomping at the bit to get on here and explain himself for the last couple of weeks

and kind of give you something to fade here. So we're going to take a break and then we are going to welcome Good friend Trey finally back to the show. Here he is. Good friend Trey. Welcome back, man. I mean, I know you kind of went on a sabbatical here, maybe took a little Aaron Rogers wacky tobacco, tried to see yourself from a different perspective. You still got the last samurai bun going on. So you haven't changed that. But man, what's happening here? Well, what's the read on the slate? What's the last couple of weeks? been like yeah i've uh you know i took a couple weeks and i sat down here on the casting couch

and looked up at the ceiling and you know just kind of kind of reflected on the journey that was this uh gambling season for myself and uh had a bit of an epiphany uh i'm going with straight bets whoa you're on out yeah i'm i'm giving the people you know something to you can't really fade a parlay and they just they're not smack in the way they smack for me sometimes so i want to give the people something that they can really fade or you know hopefully get behind and and kind of uh start building that bank roll back up and and you know get ready for actually get ready for the ufl season because i got to get my head screwed on it's straight straight for that ufl season so this is kind of a new season i mean we're into the post season you know it means a little bit it's it means a little bit more

it's a little different this time of year. So there we go. I like this. This is a new you here heading into the postseason. New year, new me. You know, got to do it. All right. So let's take a look, Trey, at what your, what the bets are. I'm not used to the straight bet. I'm not having to lead you around here because you always have some sort of weird plan being concocted. But you've got a, you've got a clear perspective. I want to hear it. What's, what's the slate looking like for you? Now, I, I couldn't just immediately get away from total slop, you know, so I'm going to ease it into the straight bets, but I do have a play that I think pays homage to the slop while, you know, going with the new direction. So I'm going to take

Quentin Johnston over 42 and a half receiving yards, uh, minus 110 on draft kings. We haven't projected for 64 and a half yards. Okay. So you get a little 20 yards work with there based on our projection, 22 yards. He's been over this number in four out of five games. So he's hitting that pretty consistently. We all saw last week, 186 yards. It seemed like they were kind of forcing him the ball and trying to get him some confidence. And I am a big believer in that type of thing. So, you know, we've seen it kind of with Bryce Young this year.

He's got a little more confident. And all of a sudden he looks like a totally different player. So maybe that was a sign of things to come. But the big question mark in that game is obviously Derek Stingley. So I'm not thinking it's hard to say this. I'm not thinking ladders. okay, I'm not trying to go crazy with it, but I do like the over 42 and a half.

And then I got to say, his longest catch of the season, 66-yard bomb. So stop me if you've heard this before, but he could get it done in one play. It only takes one catch. So I like quitting Johnston this week. I feel good about the charges. I like what I saw last week, just stingly. That's the big question mark.

But I'd like to hear what you guys think about my first step into trying to be, come straight better. I mean, I don't, I don't dislike it at all. I mean, Justin Herbert, you saw him make that. I think it was to Quentin Johnson, Tom, where he was on like the left hash and he threw it all the way across the field into the turkey hole down the right sideline. Not too many guys on the planet can do that. And Quentin Johnson's been kind of the deep threat for this team. He's made some contested catches. He's also dropped some passes, but there seems to be a level of trust that Justin Herbert has in Quentin Johnson to go get the football. Yeah, he's still going to him no matter, no matter what.

But here, this is one of those. I have a feeling we're going to have a good feel if he's going to do this early or not. He's one of these guys that if he gets into a good rhythm early in the game and his confidence starts rising, he could have a monster game. So, yeah, if he drops a pass in the first quarter or he looks shook at all, then it could be a problem. But I think that confidence is rising here. I think they did that on purpose last week. Get him going a little bit, heading into the postseason. They need a third weapon in this offense. It's Ladd-McConkey, obviously, in the middle of the field. J.K. Dobbins has given them some juice in the running game here. But they need that third weapon in the postseason.

So maybe they're just trying to pump him up a little bit here, first round pick, be the difference maker on the outside here. Let's go with it. I mean, Chris's projections have been money all season long here. I thought he was projected a little high, but I'm going to trust Chris on this one at 64 yards. So let's roll with Quentin Johnson this weekend. Yeah, let's do it, man.

So wait a minute, good for a tray. Is that it? That's really all I've got. And I did want to say, let's hope this week he waits until his ninth or tenth catch for that first drop, you know? Yes, exactly. What happens again this week will be in good shape. If he does it on the first one, like, oh, man, he's just going to be sulking and just

looking at his hands. And so, yeah, hopefully he just waits a little bit to do it. But, yeah, hopefully that confidence has to be soaring after last week. You know, I'm proud of people for, for, you know, even trying a New Year's resolution. You know, I'm not one of those people who's going to sit here and criticize you. You know, Tom Braille, you go to the gym and purge. I work out at home. I'm a Pella bro.

And I see the leaderboards when I'm doing a race. There's way more people on them at this time of year. You're not one of those people who bitches about the gym being crowded. Oh, no, no. I'd rather see a lot of people. I think that's good that people are out there getting their sweat on a little. little bit. But yeah, it is always, this time of year you're driving, you know, into the parking lot, you think it would be empty, but I have to park all the way at the other side of the

building. But no, I never criticize anybody for making some changes in their life, especially this time of year. So going straight here, Trey, I love it. Let's hopefully we'll see a long that last though. Yeah. I mean, we also got to do it. We're going to be back thrown partly. We also have to acknowledge the facts, Tom, that by February, the gym parking lot is going to thin out. You know, so can good friend Trey keep this up throughout the postseason? We will just have to see here on the best bet show at Fantasy Points. That's Good Friend Trey. That's Tom Broly.

He's clean-shaven. He's heading down to Miami. So hopefully he's Macin down there on South Beach. I will just be here in freezing cold South Carolina, even though it's not as cold as it is in Pennsylvania. And remember on this show that we are not wise. That should be obvious. We're just guys.

We'll talk to you next week, everybody. Good luck this weekend.