Fantasy Football Daily - Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Greg Auman | 2023 Franchise Focus Podcast

Episode Date: July 22, 2023

The Buccaneers got three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl out of their Tom Brady investment, but now is time to pay the check on going all-in. Greg Auman (@GregAuman) of @FOXSports and Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) discuss Baker Mayfield's outlook, Rachaad White's ability to be a bell cow, and just what new OC Dave Canales' scheme will look like. Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast here at FantasyPoint.com. My name is Joe Dolan, and we've made our way through six of the eight divisions in the NFL, in our franchise focus podcast series. Only eight podcasts left to go. I can't believe it.

It's been a grind. It's been challenging. It's been a lot of fun, most of all. And while we're going to get to the NFC South here in just a little bit, if you're listening to this podcast, whether it's July 19th, up into the 23rd, go to data. Dot FantasyPoints.com for our data suite free preview. You can access it without a login.

We believe this is going to be a tool that is going to absolutely revolutionize the fantasy football industry. And we're really just getting it off the ground floor now. We have so much more planned. And we're really excited to show it to you. So if you're listening to this podcast and you have any interest in NFL statistics, high-level DFS research, high-level betting research, or really you're just an NFL nerd and want to know who the best quarterback in home games in 15-mile-on-hour. wins was in terms of yards per attempt, you can do that with the fantasy points data suite. So I really encourage you to check that out. And if you're listening to this after July 23rd,

you can sign up for the data suite and get a free seven-day trial. So we're giving everybody the opportunity to look at the data suite and say, you know what, this is for me. I really want to be in on this. And also give you an opportunity to say, you know what, maybe this is just a little too in depth for me, but you can check it out for free. And if you do decide to purchase the Datasuite package, well, it's $50 for 2023, down from what we expect to be the regular price going forward of $200. So it's 75% off. It's going to be updated weekly with our native charted stats. I'm really excited to show everybody the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and I really hope you check it out. But if you're here, you're listening, you're listening for some NFC

South franchise focus information, and I'm pleased to give that to you. right now. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at FantasyPoints.com as we wrap up the NFC South. And we have a very special guest today, longtime Bucks Beat reporter who now covers the NFC South for Fox Sports. His name is Greg Alman. You can follow him on Twitter at Greg Alman, A-U-N-A-N, no sweet Melissa over here. Greg, it is wonderful to be with you on the podcast Talking Bucks. Thank you for joining me. Hey, no problem. Thanks for having me on. Hope you're doing well. Greg, so obviously the Buccaneers, look, if the team signs Tom Brady three years ago, you tell any Buccaneers fan, Buccaneers coach, Buccaneers executive, you get three years

at a Tom Brady, you get three playoff appearances, and you make a Super Bowl. Every single person would have taken that, but it does come time to pay the check. They're playing the Brady tax this year. Do you kind of view this as a reset year for the Tampa Bay Bucks? I mean, at least relative to what the last three years have been, I think because the division they're in, they still can have very real optimism. They can still contend. They've never had

back-to-back division titles in their history. Three straight playoffs. They haven't done that many times. So I think there's an inevitable drop-off. It's one of those where the expectations have changed so much for this team. You go back to even a year ago, still thought of as one of the better teams of the NFC,

certainly the prohibitive favorite to win the division. So now you have people having them win five, six games, on the outside looking in in a pretty bad division. So I just think it's one of those where they have almost the opposite perspective going into the year where it's so easy to exceed expectations because they're fairly low right now. For sure.

And is there a legitimate quarterback competition? I don't think so. I don't. I mean, they've been very careful to say there is. And Cal Trask, if Byron Lefich had stayed and Cal Trask had two years in this offense as an advantage, I would say that would give him a better shot. But it's all new with Dave Canales here. So it's one of those where I think Baker Mayfield, his history of the interceptions probably makes it a little bit of a competition if he has problems with that.

But as long as he isn't giving the ball away, his edge in terms of experience and leadership is so much different from what Cal Trask has. He's taken teams to the playoffs. He's won a game in the playoffs. Cal Trask has nine passes in the NFL. It's just really hard for the best. potential of that to get the nod over something that's fairly proven. So I want to talk about Dave Canales because I think this is the big change. You know, there was a point last year.

And I don't recall the exact specifics, but I believe at one point, the Buccaneers had a first and one because of a couple penalties, a very rare first and one. And I remember, I was sitting there watching the game and I'm on the radio on Sirius XN. And I lost my mind because they ran the ball on first and one. And I'm like, you want to talk about the perfect time to just take a shot down the field. And I think that really spoke to almost how broken the play calling process was under Byron Leftwich. What do you think Dave Canales is going to bring different to this offense in the biggest change for the Buccaneers? Yeah.

Broke is a pretty good word to use just when you think about the talent they had and how bad they were. I mean, like 14 points a game works than the year before. So with Canales, just the novelty of something new, I think carries some weight. I do think he's going to be a lot better about pre-snap motion and misdirection and not quite being as predictable as they were in Tampa. It was kind of okay to be predictable when they were averaging 31 points a game and the best offense in the NFL scored 30, you know. And the offensive line was protecting.

It's one of those where you had a good offensive line and you had Brady as a guy who gets rid of the ball quickly, knows how to avoid sacks. And they kind of got away with, you got away with a lot. that way. And then when they took some injuries on the line, it kind of put Brady in this bad spot where that internal clock was much probably faster than it needed to be. And it took away their downfield passing. And then you had a bad run game to begin with. So you're dead last in the NFL in yards per game and yards per carry running the ball. And as a result, you average 18 points a game. You know, I think in terms of touchdowns, red zone, all of your high leverage situations

that make a great defense offense or just a good offense, they didn't do well with those. So Canales, I think, will be more multiple, will be probably better just simply at running the ball than they've been. They don't really have a big change in personnel. Ryan Jensen's healthy. That'll be a big break. Matt Filer's probably an upgraded left guard. The switch with Tristan Worf's moving to left tackle, I think will move. I think that'll work fine.

So it'll be a better line in front of whoever's there. you know, we'll see how much of there. I think it would be really easy for this offense to exceed the overall production and scoring numbers that last year's offense had, even though you lose Tom Brady. The run game was, we already used the word broken, but the run game was broken last year. If you look at both Leonard Fornett and Rashad White's numbers, both of them rank near the bottom of every efficiency metric in the NFL. Some would think that that's a factor of the offensive line being so poor and the play calling being so predictable. They didn't make a whole lot of moves in the backfield. You know, they brought in Chase Edmonds, who was terrible last year.

Sean Tucker, the UDFA from Syracuse, that seems to me that that could be an endorsement for what Rashad White can do. And from a fantasy perspective, we're always looking for those running backs who can play three downs. Do the Buccaneers view Rashad White as that? And do you view Rashad White as that? I think so. I mean, I don't think the Bucks have had a clear cut number one like this

since maybe like Doug Martin near the end, 15, 16. You know, they haven't had a thousand nerd rush in a long time. And they haven't necessarily, it's like there's some places where you just have two really good backs and they share the load. They haven't really even had that. So the fact that Fournette is gone, I think Rashad White picks up a lot of the dual role that Leonard had. Leonard had like 75 catches last year. Had a bad year, but caught a ton of passes. Rashad White can very much be that.

I do think there'll be a better red zone offense. And I think that helps him as well in terms of, for me, fantasy success always starts with touchdown. So the question is, can Rashad White be a double-digit touchdown? guy, and I think he can be really easily. The Bucks don't have a ton of fantasy football relevant players. I mean, you have basically Evans-Godwin, Rashad White. Anything that's not those three, you're kind of taking a layground flyer on, if you will. So I think even if he's the third of those three, if it's, you know, 1,200 yards from

scrimmage and 10 touchdowns, it's not a bad season. Mike Evans is still here, and I think for a lot of people from the outside, Mike Evans being traded as he approaches maybe the twilight of his career would have made a lot of sense to the Buccaneers. But that does not seem to be in the cards, at least from my perspective. As a matter of fact, is there a chance that Mike Evans has even extended here in the near future? Yeah, there is. I mean, again, they love Mike here. He's kind of done everything right.

He's been a man a year for them, very consistent. Trading him didn't make a whole lot of sense this spring just because they didn't really gain any cap space. They got out from underneath some of the dead money that would have come after his contract. But I think it was like $2 million in cap savings. So the question is just whether they're willing to pay him at the level it's going to take to bring him back, which is probably north of $20 million a year. He's a relatively good buyer. He's like $16 million a year in his current contract.

He's worked more than that. But again, he's in his 10th year. So eventually you start to get to a point of diminishing returns. You know, with Mike, the big thing last year was just touchdowns weren't there. Here's a guy with 81 career touchdowns. It has made his name for himself with consistency in yards and getting touchdowns on a consistent basis. So you take away that Carolina game where he goes to three scores, he has three touchdowns all year. And that was kind of the crux of everything wrong with the offense.

It's just not being able to find Mike Evans in the end zone with Tom Brady as your quarterback. So you go back to what Baker did in 2020, having 2,000 yard receivers, having two, you know, solid above average receivers. He has the same thing here. So I think it'll be a good year for Evans and Godwin. I think Godwin probably is in line now to have more catches and more yards. But if Mike gets back to being Mike, it's going to be, you know, 10, 12 touchdowns and what he's done, you know, probably for the last six years. You know, Godwin's role has been kind of that big slot receiver. The guy who, if Brady needed five yards on third and five, Godman was going to get him six yards.

Do you view, do you think Dave Canales and Baker Mayfield will view him similarly to that? I actually, I don't. There was a lot of talk this spring about moving Godwin out. He's a guy that, you know, he's a guy that, you know, took a bad knee injury a year and a half ago. I think both in terms of extending his career and kind of, he's a guy that unfailingly will go across the middle under any circumstances. But I think they like the idea of using him outside more. I think he might have was like top three in the NFL in his lot production last year. So I think they'll still use him some there.

But I think they like the idea of him being outside and being a threat out there. So for him, you know, the team record is 106 catches in the season. He had 104 or 103 last year. he'll be right in line for that. If you think about last year being a season where he's eight months removed from an ACL tear, it's pretty amazing. He was as productive and consistent as he was.

So, no, I think he'll be extremely productive. And from a fantasy standpoint, the question is just whether it's six touchdowns or eight or nine touchdowns and where he fits in that way. So I think I've talked to so many people with the NFC South so far doing this podcast series, and you brought it up at the beginning of the show.

You know, you might look at this as a flawed roster, but it's a flawed division. And I think if the Buccaneers are going to make noise in the division, the defense is going to be the big factor here. You've got first round, second round picks up and down that roster. What do you think the outlook is for the defense this year? Yeah, the secondary, in good shape. I mean, to have Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean back,

have Antoine Winfield back. I think Winfield be better in that safety role. They used him a lot of nickel last year, and that didn't necessarily work for him. Linebacker play, still going to be strong with David and White. The question is just up front. I mean, if they're still stout against the run. They lost a ton of talent on their defensive line.

Akeem Hicks has gone. Will Goldston is gone. Akeem Needs Roaches is gone. There's a ton of turnover at the front. You know, they've got a collection from the Rams that helps. They've drafted guys to the defensive line in the last couple of years. But again, it's just not nearly the names and the experience they're used to having up front. So that's probably if there's question marks, that's probably where it starts.

Yeah. Greg, I've been wrapping up all these franchise-focused podcast by asking my guest, if there was an under-the-radar player on the roster, who you wouldn't be surprised if he made a statistical fantasy impact? Who do you think that is on the Buccaneers? Yeah, like I said, there's three names I think are fairly obvious and people are going to take fairly high in terms of Godwin, Evans, Rashad White.

The next guy I'd point to is probably Kate Auden. Believe in a second-side end on your roster, if you want to take a flyer later rounds, he's a guy that did really well in limited usage, and then they used him more as the year went on, can really easily be a 7-8 touchdown guy in year two. They don't have a lot else at tight end.

Cam Brade is gone. Kyle Rudolph is gone. They drafted a guy in the fifth round. It'll be help. But he'll be the primary tight end, a strong number one, in an offense that uses tight ends like crazy. So I think if I were to tell you,

there's a sleeper on this roster to be worth flying. There's not really receiver. Russell Gage is a third receiver. He actually probably did well on touchdowns last year, but I don't think there's a huge year for him unless something happened in Evans or Gobwin got hurt. So the first guy I'd point to beyond those big three would be Kate Otten. Yeah, and Gage another guy who got off on the wrong foot with injuries last year,

which just kind of happened. Yeah. In theory, Julio Jones is gone, Scotty Miller's gone, Bershot Paramond. So he's a stronger three than he was last year. Yeah. I just don't think there's more than four or five touchdowns if Evanson God went right. His name is Greg Alman.

He covers the NFC South for Fox Sports, but knows his bucks up and down. at Greg Alman on Twitter. Greg, it's been a pleasure talking to you. Thanks everybody for listening to the franchise focus podcast. This podcast, tapped up the NFC South. We have one division to go. That's the NFC West.

And then the Lord will rest, I suppose. Thanks everybody for listening and have a good day. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.