Fantasy Football Daily - Thanksgiving Menu and Contenders' Fatal Flaws | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) prepare for the Thanksgiving Day football slate by breaking down their upcoming menus, and then get into the football talk by discussing the biggest weakness for every Super Bowl contender. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS WITH CODE GURRIFIC25 AT CHECKOUT FOR 25% OFF: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ READ DR. EDWIN PORRAS' INJURY [PRO]NE GUIDE WITH CODE INJURYPRONE25: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://injuryproneguide.myshopify.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle. From numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. We are back with another episode of the Take Talk podcast. This is a Thanksgiving week special. Brett Whitefield and Stephen O'Rourke here with you this fine week of lots of food. We're definitely going to get into some food takes, Steve, but how are you? I'm good.

I'm doing well. It's reached the point, and I swear it happened like a switch was turned on and off, but it's really, it's getting dark early. Oh, man. It's such a pain in the butt. I mean, like, I, like, what was it? It was not last night, but the night before I was sitting there. And it was like 6.30.

And my wife looks at me and she goes, she's like, oh, my gosh, it's so. late. I need to go to bed. I looked at my phone. I'm like, oh, it's 630. So I think we have a little bit before we do that. It's just like, it's just that time of year where it's light for like 10 hours. For sure. And you know, it's crazy is it's been, we've had a really sunny fall for Michigan standards. But yesterday, it was that gloomy, rainy day all day, which that's what we used to in the fall here. And that just makes you feel tired no matter what. Like you can help you and work out. And it doesn't matter what you do, get good sleep and you just, you feel exhausted just because it's so gross outside. Right. So, yeah, that's always a bummer. I will say this, though, it's easier getting the kids to bed because they don't know that it's, they think it's super late outside. Right, right.

Must be way past my bedtime. But anyways. All right. Thanksgiving. That makes dark when they get out of school now. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I mean, seriously, like, you know, they have,

extracurriculars like practices or whatever and it's dark before we get home so right yeah um but but it is thanksgiving week um last you know last year steve we had an epic food discussion with one christopher whacked on the show but yes he's not joining us but we can still continue the discussion i mostly just want to know what is on your menu this year and uh are you are you a traditional food guy or or do you guys make it a little more exotic yeah this year i actually have have no concept or idea of what's on the plate because this is the first year in a gosh in a while actually that we're actually spending Thanksgiving with like one of our big families like my we're going to go over to my wife's parents house and their whole extended family is going to be there

so for the first year in like three years we're not in control of the menu and I think I'm I assume it's going to be mostly traditional food. They're a pretty traditional family. I imagine it's going to be mostly traditional and it's just going to be your standard Thanksgiving food, which I'm fine with. You know, I like the last couple of years, we've kind of done things differently and kind of switched up a little bit. But it'll be nice to do the whole turkey. And I imagine it'll be turkey and mashed potatoes, mac and cheese, all that. Yeah.

All that stuff. So which are return to the basics for us. Yes. Well, I'm sure this doesn't surprise you, but my hot take is that turkey is awful. Yeah. As I say, you've thrown that out there a couple times. And I mean, I agree. I think that we could have, we could have and should have gone in so many different

directions with Thanksgiving. It's a big, it's a big day. It's a big deal. People love it. Why do we have to settle for a okay bird? Exactly. Well, and the big issue with turkey isn't actually the turkey. It's usually 95% of people cook the whole turkey together. And the problem is the different meats on the turkey cook at different temperatures and different speeds. Like the breast, for example, the white meat that everyone loves, that really beautiful cut, that cooks extremely faster than the dark meat of the bird. So if you're pulling it at the correct temperature, if you wait till the breast, ready and pull that, then something else might not be done. Or if you wait until all the dark meat is, it hits, you know, like 165 before you pull it,

your breast meat's going to be super dried out. And I've yet to go to a, you know, and you can smoke a turkey. You can deep fry. Yeah, that adds flavor for sure, but it doesn't change the fact that the texture still sucks, in my opinion. So if you want to actually truly cook a turkey and do it well, you have to, you have to cut it up and cook each part individually to their proper temperature. But anyways, I guess.

Well, we're doing, so you know, you know, last year we had a pretty exotic meal. This year we're going pretty nuts. We're sticking with the prime rib. So prime rib is a thing. Nice. I'm also doing a venison roast. So it's seared off really nice. Then, you know, get it in the slow cooker for, you know, eight hours with traditional

potatoes, carrots, celery, onion, yada, yada, yada, make a really nice au jiu for it. It's delicious. Then I'm also doing three crown roast of lamb. that's going to be just hanging. I made a traditional Yemeni garlic sauce and a pistachio mint pesto to throw on that baby. So that's going to be cool. I'm also doing like sweet potato mash, a big tray of that. I'm doing some kuscus, some purled kuskosk for the lamb.

So it's not traditional, but still going to be freaking delicious. My brothers, though, they are coming and they were like, dude, menu looks amazing. I can't do Thanksgiving without stuffing, though. Do you mind if we bring stuffing? I was like, no, bring whatever you want. Whatever the other side you want that I'm not making, bring it. I don't care. So we are going to have stuffing.

So it's going to be all this nice exotic menu and then stuffing. And then classic stuffing. And classic stuffing, yeah, it would be cool. So, no, I'm excited. Maybe I'll save you a plate. You live close enough. I could get you one on Friday, you know. I would appreciate that because I would slam that stuff.

Yeah. Well, so my brothers, too, this is the first time. So we're actually hosting this year. We don't normally host. It's normally at my dad's house. Okay. We had some family, you know, stuff going on. I don't want to get into.

But anyways, because of that, the family is kind of separated throughout the state this year. And but my brothers are coming over and we haven't, the three of us have not celebrated Thanksgiving together intentionally in like a decade. You know, because we all have our individual families like my wife. Right. And so usually we're separate. Sometimes we end up together for like dessert at the end of the night, but usually we don't see each other. So this is really cool. They're coming.

And they're both big dudes. I'm the runt of the family. I'm small compared to them. Yeah. They're both. I think everybody would be surprised to hear that. Yeah, right. I know.

So my brother Jason, for example, just won the U.S. National Strongman Corps. So he is, he's officially the nation's strongest master. What's that? I said, not a big deal. Holy crap. Yeah, yeah. I mean, this is what they. do they're strongman competitors they're you know my brother brian owns multiple gyms and he's a

kind of a fitness guy but he he if you've seen a strong man competitor he's you know the stereotype version of that he's you know 320 pounds and just wider than a door frame so right so i i've you know we're not having that many people but i had to go big because we're we're feeding giants literal giants um anyways exciting times and then there's football on all day which is that's just makes the day awesome. Yeah. But Steve, today we thought that we would get into fatal flaws. Let's talk.

Let's go through our contenders. I think we probably agree on the contenders. I think realistically, there's probably four in each conference, give or take. You know, I'm not sure some of these are truly contenders, but because they've been in the mix the last couple years, I think we're including them. And there's some new faces as well. But we want to go through each team that we consider a contender and talk to you guys about what we think the fatal flaw.

What is the one thing that could hold that team back? Steve, why don't you get us started with, you want to do the Eagles? Did you prepare the Eagles? Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead. I think we saw it first hand.

I mean, the reason we thought of this idea was because of the game on Monday, which was a good game, but I think that you came away from it. Feeling not as good about both teams. about both teams and with the Eagles, I think the biggest thing that you're worried about right now is play calling. Yeah. I mean, their defense is solid. They, you know, they kind of got ran on in the first half.

They really shut it down in the second half. I think that was a big thing that turned the game. And their secondary has moments where, you know, they don't play the greatest, but they have a really good pass rush. So that kind of gets covered up and they can deal with that and they have enough athletes back there. But with the play calling, you just, the whole first half and even halfway through the second half, I feel like everybody was kind of feeling like there was a lot left on the bone.

And you didn't really understand the flow of what they were trying to do on offense. It was, I mean, they completely didn't target AJ Brown. I think he had like three or four targets at most. And, you know, one of them was a short in route that he caught. the others were a couple deep balls that, you know, they weren't able to connect on. He did have one that I think was AJ Brown's fault. He had that touch. They were in the red zone.

It was like a 20-yard go-rout. And he kind of hesitated. He, like, stopped to. I think he hesitated because he wanted to make a play on the jump ball, but then realized that the trajectory of the ball was going to be more for it over-the-shoulder, paused, and, you know, it could have had it. But it just, the flow of their play calling and what they do, it just doesn't seem connected,

and it just seems disjointed at times. Like running, you know, you're running three to four screens in a row for zero yards and having none of them go to AJ Brown and two of them go to Julio Jones, just doesn't seem like... Offence, bro. Right.

It just doesn't seem like the way you want to utilize the weapons that they have, and I just think that they could get them into trouble come to playoffs where all it takes is, you know, obviously their offense can explode at any time. They showed that on Monday. It's the reason that they won. But all it takes is for that play calling to keep going and those big plays not to hit. You know, if they're able to, if the chief stopped that third down throw to,

to onto Smith, we're having a completely different conversation. And that's the benefit of their offense is that they have enough dudes that they can kind of transcend that a little bit. But I think that you could see an issue. of, you know, the 49ers that went in which we get to see them play here in two weeks. But when you go up against these better teams, every drive is really important. Yeah. Every drive, like, you need something to happen.

And you just get worried about their offensive play calling. And I know you were kind of on the forefront a little bit of it last year that you had been kind of worried with Scyken at times. And I think it's amplified even more this year. Yeah. And you're feeling it even more. year. Yeah, I've talked about last year I got into a good bit.

And then this year, you know, my criticisms and more on the play designs than the actual play calling. But you saw that like both are bad at times. And the play callings really kind of, I guess when you don't design plays well, then your play calling is more likely to be bad too because you're, you're in, I don't like a lot. So, but yeah, I mean, this has been, you know, stiking, like Brian Johnson has taken everything I had issues with with this offense last year, and he's amplified it by 100.

So, or at least Stuyken still was a really good play caller, in my opinion. Just I didn't like some of his answers for Ha. I didn't like, you know, that he doesn't utilize a ton of in-breaking routes and his concepts. Where Brian Johnson now has literally, like almost eliminated in-breakers, other than, you know, the short post to A.J. Brown, they run that play a lot, but that's it. There's no deep crossers. There's no, there's no, they don't run dagger, really. They don't run Yankee. nothing like no end breakers um and then and then just they put so much on jalen hurt shoulders for

answers to hot they don't they don't build in a lot of easy checkdowns for him uh there's not a lot of checks at the line he can do when he's when he knows he's about to be pressured they like he is the answer by time yeah but when he's clearly hide they're clearly hiding some type of injury with him by the way right super like conspiratorial but i mean it's it's obvious he doesn't have the juice and the burst he had last year when that's going on though you're just like he can't carry this the entire year so i totally agree play calling is an issue play design is an issue that could be you know really bad it's really frustrating too because like you said they do have the dudes especially when goddard was healthy goddard

a j brown devante smith diondre swift these are all weapons in the past game um yeah they even had some speedsters like on the bench and they don't use any any of them other than you know boom or bust type plays screens or goes and anyways yeah good good stuff there i like it um you mentioned san francisco in that bit so i'll just go ahead and jump right into that they so this is a pretty complete team they got a great roster um brock purdy seems to have weathered the the yips storm he was in looked really good on sunday i think their fatal floss eve is their secondary it is and i've talked about this on the matchup points podcast when we're trying to project wide receivers against 49ers, the inclination is to be very scared of the 49ers.

But the reality is if your team has the offensive tackles to slow down their edge rush, you can throw on the 49ers all day long. We've seen it multiple times this year now. The Vikings, without Justin Jefferson, just shredded them. And they have a great, you know, tackle duo. The concerning thing for me with the 49ers is look at the other contending teams in the NFC, the lions, the Eagles. I mean, we're not throwing the Vikings in there.

but if they ran into the Vikings, say, like, in the first or second round of the playoffs, like that could be, well, I should say first, because I don't think the Vikings are getting past that. But those are all real possibilities. All those teams have really good tackle play. Dallas even is getting decent tackle play right now, although it's been on the decline for a couple weeks.

But, man, like, that's just scary to me, because when those pass rushers aren't getting home, the secondary has been beatable, all of them, too, not just one guy. Chavaris Ward has looked, you know, not the same at times. Lenore has not looked great. Isaiah Oliver, who I think got benched, but might have to play now that Hufunga has hurt.

I was the same because they rolled out Ambri Thomas at the outside corner with Lenore bumping inside this week. Yep. So I'm curious to see how they handle the, well, that's the other thing, too, is Hufunga is now out for the season, it looks like with the torn ACL. So they're even down a guy from when I originally constructed this take. Yeah, but I think that really is a fatal flaw,

especially when it is a passing league, as you know, and all of those teams I mentioned can throw the ball, you know, when they need to. Yeah. And I mean, honestly, I think their defense as a whole, the outside of the pass rush has kind of left things to be wanting. And normally it wouldn't be as poignant, but I think because of the conference they're in, the Eagles and the Lions, you know, presumed that being the other top two, two other three seeds.

The 49ers run, run defense hasn't been as, like, staunch as it had been in years prior. I mean, years prior, they were always at the top in yards per carry preventing explosive runs. And, you know, just the nature of how good their offense is it generally gets them to a game script where, you know, the other team isn't running the ball as much. So that always helped too. But this year, teams are able to run the ball on there a little bit more, too. and the explosive play rate or the explosive run rate isn't huge. It's at 4.4%. But that's still, you know, bottom 15 in the league, which compared to last year.

You can find out carries against them too. Yeah. And so that's also something that I look at. And again, if they were in the AFC, I would say, doesn't matter. Not that big of a deal. But because they'll probably have to play the Eagles or the lion and or the lions, that could come into play because those are both teams that do, love to run, run first and set up the pass later. So it seems like they're really missing

their dec coordinator. Houston Texan's head coach, D'emico Rines. Yeah. I mean, especially when you see what D'emiko's done with far less talent in Houston. I mean, he's got those boys playing really freaking good on defense. Secondaries playing really well. They're manufacturing enough pass rush. The run defense is excellent. I think the 49ers are really missing him. Yeah, yeah, 49ers are like. They're kind of just banking on splash plays. It's kind of what they do with their offense, too, is where they're like, we have better,

we have more dudes than you do. And eventually that's going to win out. And that's what they've been doing on defense this year. And, you know, it's not, like I said, we're not seeing as staunch of play on, you know, both the back end and the front seven as you're kind of used to with them. And I mean, that's what they do on offense too. But with the offense, you know, they have Kyle Shane.

And so. Their design, you know, amplifies the dudes that they have on offense. Yeah. All right. Let's jump to Dallas. Dallas, you know, are they truly a contender? I don't know. They seem to be in the mix.

Their team, they're top to bottom, Steve. They arguably have a top three roster in the NFL. Like they're deep just about everywhere. I think pre-show we were kind of talking. I wanted to go offensive line, but you said you made a good point. You said, how about just offense in general, like their play calling specifically? So why don't you run with that? Talk about offensive play calling in Dallas.

Yeah. I mean, so with Dallas, obviously the team kind of starts and stops with their defense, in my opinion. Yes. They, you know, they can put any team out of the game pretty early with the way their defense plays. But when that doesn't happen, and we've seen their defense get, you know, kind of, they've been able to put yards or yards have been able to be put up against them. Not often, but it happens. and it's, you know, it's happening against some of the better teams. But it's that when that happens, you know, when their defense kind of falters,

they have a fantastic ability to go stagnant sometimes. And I think that they've started to remedy that a little bit towards the last couple weeks. You've seen their offense come a lot a little bit, but you look at their roster, and their offense looks good on paper. It's just that there are times where brain and brain and, Cooks goes dark. Michael Gallup goes dark. The run game is not what it used to be, you know, probably two, three years ago. I think that, I don't know, Tony Pollard taking over as a leadback. We're not seeing the explosiveness and, you know, all those splash plays that he kind of produced

when he was committeing with, with Zeke and how you're, I mean, you're seeing Rico Dowdell, who's kind of taking over what Tony Pollard was beforehand, where now I think that people are like, well, why don't we get Dowell more, um, more burn? and get those splash plays. And it seems to be a never-ending cycle with the Cowboys. But it's just that all of a sudden, it happens in games where it's a one-trick pony offense where it's either get it to CD-LAM or it's dead.

And I think Dak Prescott has played better the second half of the year. I think he's starting to come alive. You're seeing like the third down numbers look really good. And he looks more comfortable. But just, they just need to be better about, keeping everyone involved, I think, is the biggest thing, is that keep spreading the ball out, don't fall into that trap of forcing the ball to CD.

I think that the best games that they have are when his targets and his yards come naturally, as opposed to more of a, you know, last resort, we can only target him because nobody else is getting open. They have to keep scheming it up to get everybody open and get guys like Brandon Cook's big games and get, Michael Gallup involved a little bit more, even though he has lost a little bit of juice. But yeah, I mean, and this was my worry with them because of Mike McCarthy for the beginning of the season. And you're seeing it at times.

And I think that they've had a couple weeks where they've beaten up on some bad teams. And that kind of, I think, pulls everyone off of that and you don't notice it as much. But it's the games against the Eagles where they face a better defense and they face teams that can match their talent level a little bit and they get into trouble just because they can't consistently create on offense outside of DAC, you know, creating outside of the pocket and CD Lamb being forced by the ball. For sure. I think Ferg has quietly had a good season, but I mean, they don't have the horses like the Eagles or the Lions or the 49ers on offense. They just don't, you know, Brandon Cooks until that big game he had, was it last week or the week before, he

he was like bottom five in yards per route run. Yeah. He was on the all track team or all cross country team where he was just out there running routes and not doing anything. Right, right. Gallup, you know, he looks like he's better than he was last year, but he's still just a contested catch guy right now. I mean, he's like, I'd still rather have Zay Jones to do that job than Michael Gallup at this point.

Yeah. You know, Cavante Turpin is giving them a spark here and there because he's a big play guy. but like they just don't have the horses, I think. Like if they get in a true shootout, I don't think that offense is going to do too well. Yeah. But anyways, yeah, good stuff there. Let's move to the AFC.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Whoa, whoa. I missed a team. I missed an NFC team, Steve, the Detroit line. I know. You're not, you're still, still not used to it. Yeah, and I'm also in denial because this, the line's fatal flaw might be the worst of the NFC.

And that's, uh, their pass rush specifically versus mobile QBs is not existing. And the reason it's so concerning is because you kind of feel the inevitability that they're going to play the Eagles in the playoffs at some point. Yeah.

Whether that's the second round or the NFC championship or whatever. Like the chances of them running into a team with a pretty mobile quarterback in the playoffs is pretty high. Now, thankfully there's no one really else to be super worried about. Maybe Seattle if they happen to catch them. It doesn't look like it will work out that way as of right now, but there's still a lot of season left to play.

but man that's that's crazy so the lion's pass rush just completely falls apart against mobile qubs erin i i've been saying all year that he's scared of mobile qbs and you can't convince me he's not with the way he calls plays he all that aggression he had you know look at last year especially first half of last year the lions they would zero blitz a ton they would blitz in general a lot um i think going like the last three weeks going into this recent game against Justin Fields, they were number two in blitz rate in the NFL over the last three weeks. When they see quarterbacks that they don't view as hyper-mobile, they are very aggressive. Yeah.

They love to play, or they love to play single coverage, man coverage, and get after you. Look at the games against the Packers and the Falcons. Those guys aren't super, like love and Ritter are, you know, they're not statues, but they're not super mobile. And the Lions blitz the crap out of both those guys got a ton of sacks in those games. then you line them up against Justin Herbert and Justin Fields and they totally and Gino Smith but early in the season they just totally freak out they play they do all these weird defensive linemen drops

like I think they blitzed four times the other day Steve there's less than 18% dropbacks and there's some averages in the high 20s so they just really get conservative and they're basically giving the opposing quarterback all day to throw and it doesn't have to be a fatal flaw. I think that's the part that's a little frustrating about them is it doesn't have to be a fatal flaw.

They could change schematically what they're doing to make it. Same with like what we said about the Eagles. They could change what they're doing. It doesn't have to be a fatal flaw. Well, the lines, they could do the same thing. Like AG needs to make adjustments. And Dan Campbell did say this week that they're at the point now where they will be looking into other people's opinions

about how to stop mobile quarterbacks, which I think. Which is. A.k.a. Calvin Shepherd's going to have a say. Yeah. Because the game plan's just been trash for what. This is going back to last year, there's probably the sixth game now,

seventh game, where a hypermobile quarterback just shredded them. They're still getting wins out of it. So it's not like the end of the world, but that game on Sunday was way tougher than it needed to be for them. Yeah. Yeah. And you just,

I don't think you can get into a shootout with the charger. and you can get into a shootout with the bears and things like that. But you don't want to get into that type of game with the Eagles and the 49ers because that's where. And the 49ers, obviously, Purdy's not really that mobile. But it's just you can't, against those defenses, you can't bank on scoring twice in three minutes and score putting up 41 points in a game. So I agree.

The old part is the other one, by the way. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. And it's, it extends to the entire defense with them, too, that it feels like with the mobile quarterbacks, the defensive backfield has more miscommunications when they play those guys. It just, it all seems so disjointed. Right.

That's the, yeah. And, you know, they just don't have, they don't have guys. They have Aidan Hutchinson, Alie McNeil is playing well. Outside of those two, they have no juice inside. and coming off the edge opposite hutch, it's wildly inconsistent. And yeah, that's where they brush four or even three sometimes. They give them these huge running lanes and it gives these mobile quarterbacks the ability to either run and take off or, you know, scramble outside the pocket

and just let everybody run free because it's been four seconds. And the line's defense, no secondary is good at covering over four seconds. So, yeah, it's, it's their, yeah, their defense, you're just seeing the talent deficit where you were hoping the scheme would play through and you were hoping a couple guys would, you know, develop on the edge that just isn't happening. You're getting, you know, good linebacker play this year out of Anzolone better than you've ever seen. And I think that's kind of a revelation. But it's just what you were hoping would kind of pull through as a good pass rushing unit as a unit hasn't been there. there and it really is amplified when, you know, quarterbacks are mobile because a lot of the,

a lot of the lion sacks are covered sacks and that works great against not mobile quarterbacks and you've seen it. But it doesn't work against guys who can get on the move a little bit. A lot of their sacks have been covered, like the two variety covered sacks or they, they schemed it up. You know, there was a game against the Falcons where, I mean, they were,

they were playing mind games with Arthur Smith. And they were, they were free rushers. on every play. I think Ainsolone had two sacks in that game. Barnes had two sacks in that game. And then Hutch had one or two and Alim had one. So yeah, but as far as a straight rush forward dropback,

they're not getting quick pressure, not generating sacks that way unless it is a coverage sack, which doesn't work against mobile QBs. Yeah. All right, let's move to the AFC now officially. We'll blast through these here. Kansas City, I think everyone knows what their fatal flaws. Yeah.

Their group of pass catchers is, as the kids say, not it. No. They struggle. I mean, dude, it's frustrating because you see like Rashi Rice looks really good. If it wasn't for Rashi, this unit would be dead, by the way. But he's been good enough, even on his limited snaps that like he kind of elevates them a little bit. But like MVS, like they're paying that to $10 million and he does nothing. And in big moments, he's dropping wide open passes.

Justin Watson is their most targeted receiver right now, which is crazy. He was the leader of the entire game in targets. I think he finished at 11. In a game with AJ Brown, Travis Kelsey, and Devante Smith. He was the leader in targets for the game, which is great. You know, listen, Watson's a fine role player. You want to tell me he's your wide receiver three. He's your shot guy.

We're going to take shot plays to him, hit him off play action. Whatever. That's cool. I'm fine with that. but like he's their number one right now. That's pathetic. So anyways, I mean, this is bad.

Like Cadarist Tony disjointed. Skymore obviously looks like a bus at this point. They have a few other guys as well that just aren't very good. So, I mean, I don't really know where they go from here. It's a little too late in the season to fix it. I think the one fix they could do is getting Rishy Rice on the field more.

But man, I've got issues there, Steve. Yeah. And yeah, it doesn't even, much doesn't even need to be said about it. Like you said, it was as blatant as ever the other night. I mean, you had two huge drops by two different guys in most critical moments. You know, patched homes made probably two of his better. Two of his three best throws came on third and fourth,

or second and third down, or second and fourth down that night. And both passes were dropped by the receiver. So those were put on your back. type throws. Oh, yeah. I mean, that deep ball to MVS was one of the prettiest throws you'll ever see. The throw to Watson on fourth down was insane. Yeah. I know the Eagles gave him an unnecessarily large window, but Mahomes anticipated that window and put it literally within an inch of where he wanted it. Yeah. That was nuts. Yeah, you just, you worry how much this is going to affect Mahomes, just his I mean, you're seeing his confidence get hit during games where it's close.

You've seen it the last couple weeks against the Broncos and against the Eagles. And you just, yeah, it comes down to if you look at the last couple years of playoffs, it's a couple of their games have come down to it and they've needed a guy to make a play. And teams are focusing on Kelsey. So who do they have that we'll be able to make a play in the big moment? And right now, you don't feel good about any of them. No. don't

our Baltimore Steve I don't know what direction you were going to go here I this this was the hardest one for me

I I'm interested to hear yours because I didn't have one thinking about it so I ended up going O line okay which yeah

I think you're right there yeah so like past catchers I considered because I do think so anyways yeah like zay flowers they're just the way they're using him it's not moving the needle a ton yet obj though starting to look a little bit better a little more fresh and then baitman's coming alive like and i know bateman only had one catch for 10 yards last week but he looked explosive again so if you're going to get an explosive element from from bateman you're going to get some of

that run after the catch with uh with obj and some contested stuff with obj and then zay's giving you the manufacturer touches to move the chain kind of guy. I know they're down managers now, but Isaiah likely is still very good. Charlie Kohler is very good. I ended up just saying, no, I don't think past catchers is their fatal flaw.

I think it is offensive line. They've been hurt all year on the O line. I don't think they played without both of their starting tackles on Thursday night against the Bengals. And Stanley's been in and out of the lineup all year. Morgan Moes has been in and out of the lineup all year. They've had some guards miss some time. I think that's it.

Like, can they get those five guys healthy? I think if those five are healthy, they're fine. They're not like, it's not like a world beater offensive line, but they're fine. But they just haven't, I don't think they've had all five of them in one single game this year, actually. So they're similar to the lion situation, except the lines just have better depth. But man, like, woo, that's, I think that's problematic. Now, thankfully, Lamar is Lamar and he's, you know, he can evade just about anything.

And you really got to, you really got to pressure him to generate a lot of issues in the backfield. But I think when their identity, it's still, even though they're doing it. different way. Their identity is still to run the football. They want to hit you in the face. We've seen that run game slow down at times and they've had to rely on Lamar's arm, probably more than they want to. Lamar looks a lot better doing it and not saying that. I'm just the identity of the team is to be physical and aggressive and you need healthy offensive line to do that stuff. So that's it really. I'm not even sure how fatal the flaw is, but it's probably their biggest weakness right now. Yeah, I mean, as a whole, I'd say the Ravens,

probably look like the most complete team in the AFC right now. I mean, as far, like you said, their weakest unit is not as weak as like the Kansas City Chiefs receivers. Like I would put their, like if you're ranking units, their offensive line would be above the Kansas City Chiefs receivers. But yeah, that's, I mean, you've seen it in years where if you can get pressure into Lamar's face, especially up the middle, that's where you can kind of get them to make mistakes. they're, obviously their passing offense is different this year. And it's helped improve that a little bit. I think that just the scheme and the way they're drawing things up a lot,

it has created better opportunities for him and less of the garbage that I think Roman ran. But yeah, I think that you saw you've seen them get, you've seen him get pressure off the edges the last couple weeks. Like Hendrickson was getting in there quite a bit the other night when they played. And so it just, yeah, can they, if they get that offensive line healthy, I mean, look out because that I really like the Ravens. I think their defense is insane. And Lamar is playing probably the best football of his career, at least since his MVP year. Yeah, I agree.

Let's jump to Miami. This is another hard one because there's something about Miami I don't like. I'm not sure what it is. So I thought about a few different options. I ended up going with their run defense. Yeah. Do you agree with that? Yes, that's where I was going to go with it as well.

Yeah, so what we've seen against better teams too is they're getting the line of scrimmage controlled on them. And honestly, both sides of the ball, in fact, offensive line and D line. And what happens is that offense lives on explosive plays. They want to generate big chunks. And when you, it sounds old school and tacky and analytically, not sound, but when you control the flow of the game, when you, you know, limit the snaps that offense is playing, they do have trouble. And teams have been able to run the ball all over them.

I think when Buffalo beat them, what, 40 to 20 or whatever? I mean, I know Diggs had a monster game, but, you know, Buffalo moved the ball on the ground to start that game. And that's everything up. And I just think that's, like, it's been an issue going back to last year, too. I think we all thought Christian Wilkins would step up. And he has, but he doesn't have a guy next to him. I think that's really competent. I think it's, you were hoping to see better play from a healthy Jalen Phillips and Bradley Chubb.

And you're not getting everything out of that edge group as you kind of, as you anticipated going into the year. Right. I think that's been a big issue. Because like you said, Wilkins has been good. Like I really like Wilkins. I think he's one of the better interior defensive linemen in the NFL. But they just, yeah, it's it's trench play.

I think, yeah, trench play across the board, even offense. I think, you know, it's their ability to control the trenches is what gets them into trouble. Or rather, their lack of ability to. Yeah, I mean, they're giving up 1.36 yards before contact per attempt with it, which is bottom 11 in the league. So it's, you're seeing what number? 1.36 yard before contact. Oh, weird.

I'm seeing 1.64. Oh, interesting. Oh, this is adjusted yards before contact. Sorry. Oh, okay. That makes more sense. But their yards after contact number isn't too high. But if they play a team with a good running back, like, you know, if they go up against the Baltimore Ravens,

Those are guys that, you know, do make people miss and they skew it up well. And that yards before contact number can go up, can get kind of skyrocketed a little bit. And it's not, it isn't really explosive runs that get done against them. They only give up a 3% explosive run rate. But it's just, they're able to just get the ball smashed down their throats a little bit time after time for five, six yards, five, six yards. And it's just, yeah, their lack, lack of ability to control the line of scrimmage. that's true what week was the famous 70 bomb game

was that week one or three week three I think that was week three yeah huh yeah so in games against bad opponents they've had no issue stopping the run but that's because the game script has gotten out of hand

but yeah I mean that's that's what you want to see right now is them beat a good team yeah for sure All right, let's wrap it up. I think we were both hesitant to call this team a contender at this point, but there is a glimmer of hope from this past week. They have been there the last few years, obviously.

So I think we have to call them a contender. That's the Buffalo Bills. There's a million directions we could go with this, fatal flaw. Yeah. I'm going to take a more hot, takey angle and say their fatal flaw right now is Josh Allen. Yeah. I mean, I can understand it. I'm worried about their defense right now.

Yeah. That's the obvious one everyone's picking. Yeah, is that they've lost so much talent on the defensive end that they're susceptible to just getting run on, thrown on, whatever you want to do. They just can't really control the game on defense. But I mean, we haven't really talked about it a ton, but yeah, Josh Allen is a sore spot right now in a way.

He's also right in the MVP race and has big games, but there's that hide side to him. Yeah, they've played 11 games and dude has 16 turnovers this year. Yeah. Or maybe more, actually. I know he had another one against the Jets. Interceptions and fumbles have been an issue for him. And he's fumbled the ball a lot and got it back too.

So he's just kind of, he's playing too loosey-goosey right now. It just reminds me of rookie Josh Allen. I started saying this at the end of last year. It's like we're seeing rookie Josh Allen. I think maybe he really misses Dable or they miss Dable. Obviously they fired Dorsey and now they're going with Joe Brady. First game with Joe Brady looked good, right? But defense got three turnovers.

They had some short fields to deal with. So, you know. They had no threat on the other team scoring. What's that point? I said they had no threat of the other team scoring at any point. Right. I don't want to minimize a success. Like it definitely looked like an improvement. Yes. They ran the ball effectively too against a good run defense. And then they threw the ball effectively when needed. I think Allen was what, 275 yards and three scores. He did turn the ball over again though, which that's another one. And that's the thing is that I don't, there was never really an issue with them moving the ball.

If you've watched every Buffalo Bill's game, moving the ball has never been the point of contention with them. Like I kind of stand by. I think that Joe Brady's a good guy to be at the helm of the offense, but I don't think Ken Dorsey should have been fired because Josh Allen turning the ball over and trying to make hero plays when either the game doesn't call for it or it's just not there. that's not Ken Dorsey's fault in my opinion. I think the Ken Dorsey firing was more to do with the red zone stuff because they've been pretty bad in the red zone. Which is fair.

But I just, they moved the ball fine. It's just like once they get inside the 20, it's like everything gets all jumbled for them. Like coming off that Broncos game, there's no way you walked away from that thinking that the, or at least I didn't walk away from that game, thinking the Buffalo Bills offense was an issue.

It was the turnovers that were an issue. It was bad turnover luck. And I just think that they moved the ball fine. They were walking the ball up and down the field on the Broncos defense. They just turned the ball over in the worst spots. And I just, yeah, Josh Dayland's decision making, I don't know if he's just trying to do too much. I don't know if he's just trying to elevate himself to a different level.

And it's almost like he's trying too hard and it's biting in the ass. But, yeah, it starts and stops with Josh Allen. They can go with any offense in the league if they want to. It's just that can he not make those dumb throws in big moments? Yeah. And to be clear, as I'm saying as of right now, I think he's the fatal flaw. I also think Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, has a ton of talent, and you can get it figured out. If he gets it figured out, it's no longer a fatal flaw.

flaw and this team is probably right back in the mix. So I think they might have found something with the way they ran the ball in the second half against the Jets. Yeah, they ran the ball really good against the Broncos too. Yeah, and I think that that's weeks. I think they're starting to see the utility in getting James Cook's more, James Cook more carries over Latavius Murray, which. Which is funny.

It's like two weeks ago, everyone was saying the opposite. Right. And I, the metric is all. kind of pointed to playing James Cook and that this was going to happen, but it's hard. It's hard to see when you don't have those metrics in front of you and you're just watching the game and it did look like, well, Latavius Murray is the one breaking off the seven, eight yard runs, but that's all he has in him is seven, eight yard runs. He doesn't have the 25 plus yard run ability as much as James Cook.

Yeah. They've also gotten Khalil Shakir a little more involved and what they've seen there is he's an explosive playmaker. Like that guy, big time, ball skills downfield, good after the catch. He's fast.

I think that's a big win for them. They signed Deonti Hardy to do explosive playmaker type stuff and just hasn't really worked. Maybe Shakir gets more run now that he's performed well a couple weeks in a row. Tank Johnson, former Detroit line great.

Yeah. Coming in with the 28-yard touchdown the other day. That was a nice little play. To have speed, though, I guess is what I'm getting at. They got a ton of speed on offense. It just kind of hasn't been on cork yet.

Yeah, I think that I was, I'm glad you touched on Shakir because I meant to bring that up. But he's opening up a part in the past game that I think that, one, they thought Gabe Davis would, and two, they've desperately needed. Because now they're at a point where potentially with how Kincaid's playing well, Khalil Shakir coming alive a little bit, that offense isn't. as reliant on Stefan Diggs to be the starting and stopping point with that passing offense. And I think that that had been a fatal flaw of theirs earlier in the year, is that finding production outside of Stefan Diggs was brutal. And, you know, hopefully Shakir coming alive, you know, at least it then would lend to potentially opening up more things for Gabe Davis.

And you will have the game scripts where Stefan Diggs goes off. That's just because he's Stefan Diggs. digs but yeah i think that you could see an explosion from this offense if this if their turnover luck flips the other way and josh aelin protects the ball three percent better then i mean yeah this offense can put up 45 a game easily yeah and shout out to chris weck too he's been bagging on the bill's uh roster building for 18 months now yeah how they've suited the receivers not getting digs any help you know late late round capital spent on receivers or cheap free agents they've never really made a concerted effort to

get him help and he's right i think that's that's reared its head probably the last 20 games for buffalo and now they're finally getting a little something out of secure um kinkade obviously is basically a receiver too so that helps um but yeah good points if you look through their draft history of like the first three rounds the last six years it's really jarring to see it all on paper in front of you because there have been a lot of misses. A lot of, a lot of bets on guys that haven't materialized. Yep.

A lot of, they've done a lot of drafting developmental defensive linemen. Yeah. Some of those guys are starting to play well now. Like Eponessa's finally got a role and he looks good. Rousseau finally getting there. I think that Oliver is taking the step. that I think that everybody's been waiting for for four years at this point.

Yeah, they clearly thought he took the step last year because they paid the man this offseason, which I thought was crazy. But hey, it looks like it's working out for them because Oliver looks the best he's ever looked. But yeah, I mean, it is crazy how many dart throws they've truly made in the early rounds. And then they've ignored skill players on offense for the most part. I mean, Shakir was a fifth round pick. They drafted like Isaiah Hodgins in the sixth round a few years ago. You know, not really anything special there.

James Cook was, what, a fourth or fifth round pick? Yeah, right around there. Yeah, I mean, he looks probably better than his draft position. But point being is like they really had ignored this. They brought in digs and they kind of were like, oh, we're good. Yeah. I think Davis was either like a fifth round pick. So, yeah, anyways.

Yeah. All right, guys, we got to get out of here. We're cutting it early because it is Thanksgiving week. We got stuff going on, food to cook, people to see. We'll be back next week, though, with the full show. Thank you so much for listening. We just launched new tools. Yes, we did.

Some really cool stuff, some QB coverage matchup type stuff. We've developed like a matchup score. It's a proprietary algorithm that should help you win lots of things in betting fantasy worlds. Anyways, go check that out. Really cool tools in the data suite, data. Data.com. If you have any questions, feel free to DM myself or Stephen or Rourke. Steve, let's get out of here. Yeah, happy Thanksgiving, everyone. We appreciate it.

Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.