Fantasy Football Daily - The DL Contract Market and Weak Positions on Contenders | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: August 11, 2023

In Take Talk 67, Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) talk the crazy contract market for defensive linemen and also hit on some weak position groups that could hold contending teams back! Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Yo, welcome into another episode of Take Talk. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield, joined by my usual co-host, Stephen O'Rourke. Steve, what's going on, my man? Not much.

It's a good day. Preseason games are officially underway today. I'm excited. It's a good day. The first full slate of preseason games at that. We have a full 16-game schedule between now and what Sunday night? Or is there even a game Monday this week? Is there really a game?

I don't think so. I don't think there is. Yeah, I think it's Thursday through Sunday. Yeah. But still, you'll get 16 games between now and Sunday, which is pretty cool. I think there's even two tonight, right? Like an East Coast West Coast game. Yep.

Then you'll get, I don't know, five, six tomorrow, then five, six Saturday, and then they'll round it out on Sunday. So that's exciting. We're not going to spend a lot of time previewing that, though, because while preseason is exciting, it's also kind of boring to talk about. Yeah, I mean, listen, camp battles are fun to follow, and you always enjoy the couple guys that pop off the field in the preseason.

but like long term when it comes to grand scheme of things, you're not really pulling away much. It's really more like for the casual fan and even for, you know, guys like us, it's really just exciting to have football back. But in the grand scheme of things, it's not anything that I'm like digging in and taking a ton of notes. Well, right.

And like, you know, for your individual team, it's really exciting, right? You want to go see. For Steve and I to know every camp battle going on in every team and like sufficiently preview that would be very difficult and boring for 90% of the listeners. Because if we're not talking about your team, you probably have no idea what's being discussed. Right. Well, we do have a good grasp of most things going on. There's no way for us to know like legit every camp battle. And the reality is like teams use preseason differently than fans.

Right. They're looking for very specific things. They're looking for how our third or fourth receiver can perform on special. teams because that's something that will get him a roster spot. Right. You're looking for situational football. Like we might intentionally goof up third and two so we can get into fourth and two. Like that stuff happens in preseason.

People don't realize that. Teams will purposely screw up third and short so they can get into fourth and short because that's a situation you don't see a ton of in the NFL and you want reps doing that stuff. Right. You know, and teams will also look at what they're doing bad in camp and they'll say, hey, we're really struggling with this. Let's try to hit that hard in this game coming up. So they might be intentionally doing things they know they struggle with just to get some reps doing it and try to, you know, shake off the rust or develop some skill, whatever it is.

So teams use preseason way different than the fans do. It's not really a viewing experience that's pleasurable unless you, you know, are a degenerate, which most of us are. And or you're watching your specific team. Right. We do, however, have two fantastic topics. talk about tonight or today almost a tonight what um you have two really good topics about before we get to that though let's quickly hit some news and then we're going to get into things Steve likes um news i don't there wasn't really a ton right like you got the john taylor

holdout situation the joe burrow uh calf strain is looking a little more serious than maybe we thought yeah that's a little bit right yep the quote was several weeks from when i said several weeks from Zach Taylor. So not really a great timeline, but still it's something to be considered. And I know that even Jamar Chase went on, he was on Kay Adams show earlier this week. And he said, he's like, I hope Joe Burrow doesn't play in week one. Whoa. He basically was like, I would rather him miss week one and make sure that he's completely

fully healthy than rush him back for week one and have him like re-injure it or not be at 100 percent it's funny you say that because i saw a one of these uh you know the and twitter doctors NFL Twitter doctors we have our own at fantasy points it's really good that dr edwin pyris um he's awesome but i saw one of these guys likening this injury to what kevin durant went through uh his last year in gold state which he was spinning it positively like oh see durant had this bad caption he was able to return um you know quicker than people thought and i was like do you forget the end of that story though to tear his first game back yeah or second being back or something like that so like uh and it was a 100% related to that calf strain right um yeah i for for the

bengal's sake if they're not 100% confident he's ready to return do not rush that man back because i would hate to see him tearing achilles man that would be awful yeah that'd be brutal Plus, again, even if it doesn't lead to like a greater injury, even if it just leads to having that linger for, you know, six, eight, ten weeks. I mean, this is a year where, you know, since he's all in, it's, you know, another year of being competitive. You never know how long that window's going to last. And you'd hate to risk that by trying to rush back a quarterback to play, you know, one or two games when in the grand scheme of things. You know, those games aren't as impactful early in the season. You can make up ground.

Absolutely. Yeah, if it's a short amount of time they're losing him for, then definitely season's still on. We're still Super Bowl contenders. If we're talking, you know, significant time at any point, whether it's because they rushed him back or just because of this injury, then that's concerning. Yeah.

You know, that's a really competitive ASC. So I think that would be a very big detriment to them, obviously. So all right, I don't think there's any more news, Steve. Let's get into things Steve likes. Last week, we introduced a new segment called Things Be Like. And I went first last week. And so today is things Steve likes. Steve, take it away, my main.

Yeah. So first thing, I like anime. It's something that I've gotten into recently. probably like the last two or three years. I have buddies from college that watch it, and they kind of got me to start watching it. And there's just a couple. I'm not like super, super into it.

I know there, like, I know some people that watch like 30, 40 shows. I watch like five. But like there's one that's actually finishing up probably in the fall here, attack on Titan that I think is like one of the best like storyline shows I've ever watched. And it's like just insane animation, really cool. And then there's another one that's My Hero Academia that is a ton of fun too. It's like probably geared a little bit more toward younger ages. But I think like it's cool.

It's about a kid going to be like the best superhero ever in a world of superheroes and super villains. But yeah, I love that stuff. I think it's I think the animation is so much fun to watch. Demon Slayers, another one that that's probably the most. like visually beautiful show animated show I've ever seen like just really cool I think they're so well done and the storylines are insane like how they come up with that stuff I think it's really cool a ton of fun and you know like a lot of it is out and ready so like it's easy to kind of go back and just watch a couple episodes are usually 20 minutes long so that I love that another thing I

like is Thai food. We actually just went. My wife's birthday was yesterday and we actually just went to a new Thai restaurant in Corktown, Detroit. And man, it was so good. We had, we did like a full kind of like three course meal. And like they, it was ramen. And then it was like this nice spicy Thai salad, these awesome, like little coconut cream pancakes that were incredibly good. And then the last thing I like, super simple one is just the first sip of coffee in the morning. Oh, heck yeah. There's nothing that gets me going better than, you know, brewing a fresh pot of coffee

and having that first sip of coffee and knowing that the day is ready and going. And, you know, it just gets me. gets me excited for another day to go out and just like conquer whatever's on the plate, take care of whatever needs to get done. I think it's just the, it's a simple thing, but I really like coffee and it really is just like that first sip of coffee and the first sip of like a good coffee is undefeated in my opinion. Yeah, coffee slaps. Like in pretty much any form, I like just black coffee.

I like lattes. Like I'm a huge cortado snob. Oh, yeah. and how good they do a cortado. But it's so hard for me to not wake up and walk right up to my espresso machine and just turn it on and just get that double shot going. Because I have to force myself to drink a couple liters of water because I literally run on coffee. So if I don't start by hydrated, by the end of the day, I'll be so dehydrated from all the coffee I drink. So I'm constantly like I'm usually double fissing.

I've got a liter of water in my hand and then a double shatter of espresso. Yeah, I'm the same way. It's like first thing as glass of water, then grab the coffee. I mean, like at this point, I'm not even convinced that caffeine affects me that much anymore. Say,

I can drink a double right before bed and fall asleep. Yeah. Yeah. I can, I can drink coffee, you know, a cup of coffee, you know,

at 9, 10 p.m. and be laying in bed and asleep an hour later. Yep. If anything, I think it has like a calming effect on me now. If I'm like, if I'm just exhausted from the day and I can't like sometimes you're overtired you can't sleep right about what's coming tomorrow like I got a ton on my plate I'll just go hit some you know

some espresso and it like just kind of like seizes me calms me down then I can just easily sleep right right right which is hilarious because that's like the exact opposite effect it's supposed to have it is not supposed to be calming in any way shape or form but yeah I mean I know like I had a friend a friend growing up where his family they would they would drink gallons of coffee at all hours of the day yes they had the they had the biggest it was a gallon coffee maker it would make it would make a gallon of it which is the biggest coffee maker I've ever seen and they would take it down whenever they would get together they would take it down no problem wow we're going on a massive coffee sidebar here on things Steve likes but

Yeah, when I lived in North Carolina, my wife and I, we had our first two kids. When our second child was born, Kristen's mom came and stayed with us for a couple months just to kind of help us. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I worked from home.

I was at PFF at the time. Kristen was obviously on maternity leave and we were trying to give her as much rest as possible. And Kristen's mom can work from home as well. So it was like this trio tag team situation and Kristen's mom's coffee drinker. we were probably blowing through, I'm not exaggerating three, four pots of coffee a day. We always had one on the hopper ready to get brewed. We had two coffee pots going. We'd be drinking off one.

The other one would be brewing. And literally four coffee pots a day between her mom and I. Kristen doesn't even drink coffee like that. That's incredible. Oh, it was crazy. I mean, yes. When you have kids, you'll know. You'll know the struggle to keep yourself awake.

but um all right that's the thing steve likes we are doing this to kind of you know peel back the curtain get you guys know us a little bit better on a personal level connect at that audience um next week we'll do three more things i like anywho we had two sweet topics teed up for you guys today the first one i want to get into steve is a defensive line contract discussion with a little more focus on the detackles there's a couple points points here I wanted to hit too but if you look at the market the D-line market right now Steve it is wild it is absolutely incredible what's happened like you just look this off season alone yeah 24 million a year Jeffrey Simmons almost 24 million a year dron pain Dexter lawrence

giovon hargrave even delvin tomlinson by the way got paid like you know 14 and a half million a year And I really wanted to point that one out because, you know, we have all these arguments about running backs not mattering, running the football being a low value proposition in the NFL. Yeah. You had a run stopping detackle like Delvin Tomlinson who doesn't really offer you anything in the past game. Just signed a four-year deal making him 15 or 14 and a half million bucks a year with like almost 30 guaranteed by the way. It's like that is a like for a while, Steve, it looked like the safety cornerback. market, maybe even wide receivers to an extent, were the ones that were pushing the envelope.

Yeah. It's definitely deline. And the detackle market has come roaring out of nowhere. It's incredible. Yeah. I mean, the top, what, five of the top six guys in like contract value and like overall contract value in year by year got signed this off season. Yeah. Yep. I mean, Aaron Donald's making over 30 a year.

So, I mean, two things I wanted to hit was like, what's the next group of D. Lyman? Because there's a bunch more that are going to get paid, dude. You got like Nick Bosa coming down the pipe. Like he's going to get, he's going to get what, 25 at least, maybe 30, he'll push 30.

I remember when 20 was like the magic number for starting quarterback. Right. And now you're getting like almost 10 detackles over 20 million a year. And then you're going to have you know, Donald's at 30. Chris Jones is holding out for a new contract. He's

he'll get close to 30 when that's sudden done. Nick Bosa will get 30. Micah Parsons will get close to 30. Like this is insane. This is actually crazy. Yeah. And it just, it's crazy because for what it means as far as like,

you know, we talk about team building all the time. But the investment that needs to go into the defensive line now is crazy. I mean, it is so critical with how, I mean, we talk about it all the time with how rushing the pastor has become so integral,

getting pressure and all that. And, you know, it really can make and break a team of, you know, if you don't have sufficient pass rushers on your team, it really can be the difference between you making the Super Bowl and you not making the Super Bowl. I mean, look at what happened with the bills last year when Von Miller went down. They didn't have a ton of depth behind them. They had, you know, some younger guys that they kind of were just hoping would develop,

hoping that, you know, what they've built and who they brought in would develop. and they just didn't totally get there. They had, you know, Rousseau, who came on a bit. But even then, like, Von Miller was the linchpin to that unit. And it was kind of what spelled not necessarily their demise. They had some other issues, but it definitely was an integral piece to what kind of led to their downfall at the end of the year last year. Yeah. A couple I even missed.

Ed Oliver got a nice deal for four years, 68 million. Which is. per year with like 45 guaranteed or something? Yeah, which like that's crazy. I mean, at Oliver, I think, you know, if you talk to most football analysts, hasn't really lived up to the total hype of where he was drafted and what everybody thought he was going to be. And yet still, like, the need to retain someone who has the potential or even has shown a

little bit of promise, like, it's just such a value, it is such a valuable position, especially a defensive tackle that can do both things like playing against the run as well as rushing the passer, which like you said is why I dealt like Tomlinson getting what he got. You know, it's interesting. Let's talk about that specifically because, well, Draymond Jones is another one that I missed. Guy who plays mostly on the interior. Obviously he's like an underside. He's a pass rusher specifically.

He's a pass rushing specialist. That's what he does. I get why he got big money. but like I'm looking at this list right now I've just pulled up you know over the cap I'm looking at the detackle contracts you've got Vita Vaya Kenny Clark Ed Oliver Dalvin Tomlinson

DJ Reader these are all guys who are primarily run stoppers so in so I think it's worth talking about because we spend so much time talking about how you don't want to build teams around running the ball conversely it should then equal you don't want to build your roster around stopping the run, right?

Right. Running the ball doesn't matter, then why to stopping the run? And I think it's not as simple as just that mindset. And what I wanted to get into is like how valuable it is to have guys you can rely on to plug holes on first down. The key to winning a series on defense is getting teams in the third long, right? So if you can stop the run, if you can say, hey, we're, you know, you're looking at second and nine now and you're forced to make the decision. Do we run it again or do we go for a short pass?

Like that's that's a winning proposition. Yeah. Getting, getting teams set up to where they have to pass. They have to show you their cards, forcing them into passing situations, preferably long distance passing situations. That is, that is how you get punts. That's how you force punts. It's just why it's wild to see these contracts, man. Yeah, I mean, like you said, being able to just turn a team. team into being one dimensional. Being able to just have them be where it's like, no matter what, we know that third and short, they don't trust what they're doing. And they need to drop back and pass.

So then that just allows, you know, defensive ends, defensive tackles to pin their ears back and just go. And I think that's, you know, that's where you get your pass rushing specialists. And you get those guys that, you know, once you're able to bring them in on a third down, even third and short and just say, go. because we're not really worried about them running the ball. And the one or two times that they do go after it and try and run the ball on like a third and short, then fine. We'll take that.

It is what it is. But on the other six to eight a game, we're banking on them passing the ball. And we're banking on being able to put a lot of speed like a dime set and just have our defensive line just rear back and go. Yeah, I mean, look at a team like the Detroit Lions last year who they started the year. defensively bad. And then things made a really crazy turn about halfway through the year. And then even so,

you know, early in the year they were both bad against the run and bad against the pass. But I actually was using the Fantasy Plains Data Suite to go through this yesterday. When the Lions had that defensive turnaround, and we'll call it a turnaround, listen, they didn't go from like bad to top five

or top 10 even. It was like to middle of the pack. But that was enough. turn around for them to start winning games. And what happened was, yeah, the coverage got better. But the reason it got better is because they started stopping the run, Steve. They had multiple games. I think actually four of the top seven games in rushing yards over expectation allowed,

fantasy points surrendered over expectation allowed. The Lions had four of the best seven games of all defensive units last year. Wow. You know, and you look at just the raw box scores, you can kind of figure out which games will be. You know, they shut down the Packers and Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. They shut down Danny Dimes and Sequin Barclay. There's a bunch of games in there where you couldn't run the ball against the line.

I think Vikings were another one. They shut down Delvin Cook pretty good. Yep. So they had like four of the best run-stopping performances of the season for any team. And those games magically correlate with. Oh, wow, they didn't, you know, yards per attempt against was also really low that game. I wonder why. Well, when you're in third and 10 all the time, it's hard to throw the ball because you know the past coming.

You know, the defensive backs know that, you know, you got to take a seven-step drop because there's no, there's no three, you know, quick game that's going to get you 10 yards. So it's, it really is crazy how stopping the run kind of changes the defensive structure. And it starts to make sense. When you see a guy like Ed Oliver, I remember when this deal came out, it's, Actually, we had a conversation because there was rumors he was going to get traded to the Detroit lines at one point. And I was like, well, I'm just scared about what he's going to get paid because I knew his contract was expiring. I was like, yeah, if you could sign him to like, you know, 10 million a year, then that'd probably be worth it. But he got 17 million a year.

And at the time, I was like, this doesn't make any sense. Like, this is way overpayment for a guy who's kind of underwhelmed. Well, he's been good enough, and especially against the run. I think he's developing that pass rush arsenal. And once he gets that going, he'll make, you know, every dime of that contract makes sense. Yeah. But his run-stopping ability is ultimately what earned him that. Kenny Clark's another one where it's like, yeah, he's decent rushing the passer,

but he's really freaking good against the run. So especially for a team like Green Bay who likes to use six defensive backs, like how critical is Kenny Clark? Yeah. I mean, seriously, like, because those looks don't work if you don't have a Kenny Clark. And that's, I mean, that's, that's why Dallas invested in Mazi Smith. Yep. Same type of thing. They love this, they love dime packages.

Yep. So in terms of drafting, should teams start drafting these big Hog Mali types sooner? I mean, all the guys we mentioned were pretty high pedigree guys. Like, if Dalvin Talvin Towninson was a second round pick, right? Reeder was second round pick. Yeah. Clark first. Oliver was the first.

But like every year, it's, seems like there's some big nose tackle types that always slip in the draft a little bit. Yeah. This year, the dude from Baylor, Siaki Ika, who's now with the Browns. So this is a good example of what I'm talking about, too. Browns, Steve, have been how bad against the run the last few years? Oh, I mean, they've been like on a yards per carry. I mean, they've been pretty consistently.

They gave up 4.7 yards per carry last year. Yeah. And they went out and gave Delvin Thompson four years, almost 6. million and they drafted Siaki Ika with a top 100 pick. I mean, they basically were like, yeah, enough's enough. We got to fix this. And they doubled down on getting, you know, run-stopping bodies in there. And that's, you know, same type of thing.

It didn't work out as well last year, but that's why the charges brought in Sebastian Joseph Day to be a guy that plugs against the run. And, you know, the charges are another defense that has been consistently getting absolutely, you know, run on, like pretty consistently weak and weak out. I think they gave up, you know, from Fantasy Points data, they gave up 5.4 yards per carry. And it's, it also is funny because you see the investment into the defensive line, but you aren't really seeing the investment into that second level, the linebackers. They really, it's, it's, you know.

They're the running back of defense. Right. They're the, I mean, and you think they're the guys that would be just as crucial. I think, you know, I think San Francisco is a good example of a team that utilize, you know, they have a good defensive line, but they also have very good linebackers that are able to, you know, plug the run and play well against the run. But you don't see that investment. It is all about like, okay, we can get mid-level starters at linebacker if we put in front of them top tier defensive linemen. And it's, you know, same type of thing with like,

like you said on offense, where you, the investment goes into the office. offensive line, but everybody's like, you know, once we shore up that spot, then we can bring in a mid-level starter, a, you know, free agent, a Jamal Williams. And, you know, if our offensive line is good enough, he's going to make it work enough that our run game will operate functionally. For sure. I mean, linebackers are definitely the running back of defense. No no position in the NFL relies more on another position than running back does offensive line. And then I would say the close second place of that is linebacker to D-Line. Yeah.

If you don't have a line in front of you, as a linebacker, your job is very hard in terms of defending the run, that is. Yes, yes. Yeah. All right, let's move on. So this whole discussion got me thinking, well, shoot, are there D-lines out there that could hold a team back? And then I started thinking in broader terms, like, what position groups are out there? Like, who's got a really weak position group that is a serious detriment to their team? Yep.

And then I, then that was too broad. So then I boiled it down to a little bit. Like, how about which contender? What teams have big aspirations for this year that could be held back by one of their position groups? I came up with a couple we talked about. And yeah, I just wanted to quickly go through some of those. I got like one team who's, I would say, a fringe competitor. Then I got another team was a really good team.

I can make first throw, though. Let's go Chief's D-Line. Steve. This is ultimately how I got on this whole subject of D-Line value. Because Chris Jones is pulling out. I started looking at the Chief's depth chart, and I'm like, oh, my God. For a Super Bowl winning team and a team that obviously has aspirations to repeat,

they are not in a good spot on the D-line. No. It's like you called me yesterday, and this was like, you know, we talked about this. And, you know, looking at their depth chart for their defensive line, it is purely banking on the development of young guys in hoping that they are able to fill out space aside Chris Jones. Because Chris Jones is what they have on the off on the defensive line. Like it's Chris Jones. It's George Carl Loftus, who they're hoping works out.

Mike Dana, who's pretty much just a pretty situation. He's been situational pass rusher. isn't like his career so far but now he's slated to be you know a integral piece to that defensive line Dana was a nice find for a fifth round pick

but he's not a guy like he's he's a replacement level player I think right right Derek Nottie's a run stopping nose tackle only he literally offers nothing else so they're really relying on young guys Carl off this has to develop

and a duke Zoma first one pick this year has to perform well. Their initial depth chart has him behind Mike Dana, which I would imagine that changes quickly. Yeah. They have three, they drafted three rookies on the D-line this year. They're expecting reps from. They're all running with the second team already. Kendrae Colburn, another one, the Wake Force kid.

And then B.J. Thompson, the SF Austin guy. So they're like relying on young guys to develop. And shoot, it might work out. Steve, I'm not going to say it won't. They're obviously a good team that draft well, develop well. Yeah. But that's like if this Chris Jones holdout lasts for any significant amount of time, that is scary for them.

Because that defense could easily fall apart. Yeah, because I mean, a lot of what their defense is is predicated on pressure. I mean, they bring a lot of different pressures. They like to, they like to blitz from the nickel. They like to do some different things. But Chris Jones is really the motor that keeps. keeps that defense running. They're pretty consistently expecting him to take on double teams, get pressure from the interior. I mean, they were even moving him outside at times last year and

having him rush from there. And we've talked about how that wasn't the best. You know, those snaps weren't the best snaps, but they were still valuable because Chris Jones is who he is. But, you know, if that pressure starts to go away, you know, they have a solid secondary, but, you know, you can start to see, you'll start to see the pieces somewhat fall apart if they can't get the pressure that they've been somewhat known to get, you know, at least, especially in the playoffs. That's really a big part of why they're able to make deep runs is when the playoffs come. They, you know, Spagnolo gets really tricky with his pressures and Chris Jones. Illing it up. Right. And so, like, yeah, their defensive line, like, if, like, if Chris Jones holds out, it, let's, say he doesn't play, let's say he doesn't get a full training camp and he needs time to get going, it's one of those situations where all of a sudden teams will start to run the ball more on

them and establish their offenses against them more running the ball. Yeah. Because then, you know, it's the famous, like, do you play keep away from the quarterback? Like, you can't really keep it away from homes. But if you can, you know, if you can establish a run game and control the ball, you can control the amount of possessions their offense gets. Yeah, for sure. they legitimately are like an injury away from being very thin there it's kind of

scared you got anyone else yeah i have i mean i have a couple another one a team that is aspirations to make waves in the playoffs this year is the jaguars and a big thing looking at their secondary they did nothing to shore up their secondary this year and it's been a I've, you know, it's been a talking point across the NFL a little bit. But, man, that secondary is really banking on development of the guys that were there. Because they brought in, like, one draft pick. They brought in Antonio Johnson, the guy from Iowa State. That's pretty much their only, you know, upper tier draft pick that they used to do anything.

thing on the secondary. They have Tyson Campbell who still is developing Ray Sean Jenkins, Andre Cisco, Darius Williams, who they brought in in free agency last year and then Trey Herndon at the nickel. That's a team that could get absolutely ripped apart in the past game. Yeah, so I like Tyson Campbell a lot. I think he's a, they're definitely banking on him stepping into that elite tier cornerback territory which helps if he does I like Andre Sisko a little bit I think he can play but yeah Ray Sean he's good at what he

like you put him near the line of scrimmage you know defending the run playing the box in zone coverage I think he's solid you get him isolated a man coverage or even you know playing like too high type stuff against like the charges we saw in the playoffs last year or even the chiefs, like, you know, you're going to get,

he's going to get one-on-one with the slot receiver and he's going to get cooked. So I don't think he's a bad player, but in a team where that was a weakness, I would have definitely probably looked to upgrade that spot. Yeah. Darius Williams is, he has utility. Again, in his own heavy scheme,

he works a lot better than any time you're playing, man, he's tiny. He's like 5'8. Trey Herndon, I think, is done at this point. So I'm surprised they didn't do anything to, I think Tray Herndon actually played reasonably well last year despite, you know, kind of what his perception was. So maybe they're banking on that being a long-term thing. I just don't think it is.

So they really didn't do anything on defense in general this off season. No. I mean, they were young last year? Yeah. Yep, they were young last year. Roy Robertson Harris, another interior de-linman, by the way, that got a big contract. they re-signed him everything else was like a

fourth, fifth plus pick in the draft. They didn't bring in any free agents. They went on that spending crusade last year. Right. Yeah. I don't know. Yeah, that's a good call though. Their secondary could be problematic.

Yeah, I mean, their team that we expect their offense to take a jump. But that, I mean, the defense is a lot of banking on things taking us, everybody just taking another step. Yeah. Another one in the same, similar vein as in secondary, is the Minnesota Vikings. Look, I know a lot of people are projecting the Minnesota Vikings to take a step back this year,

which I am as well. And the main reason I am is because that secondary is in brutal shape, Steve. Brutal shape. They don't have anybody that I would consider. a plus starter right maybe byron murphy junior he's a plus starter harrison smith i think is washed yeah can bind him you know is not very good they're banking on mackay blackman a rookie to come in and play yeah every at right cornerback um he he's really raw i don't see that working for them i know lewis seen you know he's got a chance to really develop and and take the next step but

still like they're they're beat up at corner they're old at safety i don't know what happens there i'm real that's really worrisome to me andrew booth junior booth junior is kind of getting beat out by a fourth round pick from the same draft class which is concerning yeah yeah i mean that's been the kind of the reports out of their training camp is booth junior and louis are two guys that they expected to take a step but aren't breaking into the starting lineup yet and yeah that's a lot of draft capital that you invested into those two guys and to have them not turn into starters. Yep.

And this is a similar situation where with the Chiefs where they're really counting on young development. Like just look at some of the pedigrees of these guys. Like Booth Jr. was a second round pick last year. Seen was a first round pick. This year they've got Mackay Blackman, a third round pick, Jay Ward, a fourth round pick. Caleb Evans last year was a fourth round pick.

They've thrown six draft picks. at the at the secondary they brought in joan williams from new england to play one of those corner spots and looks like he's not taking a starting job either so that i don't know man this secondary is in rough shape yeah and the team that would they win 12 games last year yes even it was a 13 yeah they won they won like seven games one score games or something yeah it was crazy historical season luckiest team ever. So people were projecting a step back just because of that.

And then when you look at their offseason moves, you realize this team kind of, I think the GM realized that they weren't that good. They didn't do anything that would compromise their future. So, but yeah, I mean, they should be competitive in the NFC North for sure.

I know a lot of people are handing that to the Lions, but the Lions still got to go earn it. And this is probably their biggest adversary right now. So that secondary, though, could be a problem. Yeah. Another one that I looked at,

was the Baltimore Ravens pass rush. Okay. Looking at their depth chart, where are, like they have Tyos Bouser, O'Dafay O'Dave, David OJabo, Maddabuke, Michael Pierce. I mean,

they, where are they getting their consistent pass rush from? Because OA didn't, you know, he showed some spots here and there, but was not, you know, this elite starter. OJabo is coming back from an injury. It's just, it's interesting for a defense that, you know,

played well last year that this year, looking at it this year, they aren't going to get, I don't think they're going to get a lot of a pass rush this year. They're getting pressure is going to be tough for them because they're relying on a lot of, again, mid-level starters, almost replacement level guys to command that pass rush. So this is another, this is going to cause me to go down a massive sidebar here. Can't wait. I'll get to the sidebar in a second though.

But this is another one where they're really truly counting on the system, counting on the development. They're trusting their process. Yeah. Hoping, you know, Adafi-OA, you know, lives up to the, that first round pedigree. David Ojobeau, they knew they weren't going to get anything out of him last year coming up in a late season ACL at that. Yeah. He tore him at what is pro day? I think. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, toward his pro day leading up to the draft. So they knew that that wasn't really going to be a thing. Um, so they're trusting the process with him. And then Broderick Jones is an

interior player. They think can give him a lot of pressure. They just actually resigned him yesterday. Another interior guy getting paid by the way. Um, now it wasn't some crazy contract, but I think he got like 12 million a year or something which they view him as an ascending player so to your point though I agree I like I like trusting the process but at some point I'm adding competition to the room because like hey

what if Odafei Owe doesn't develop into that guy you thought he was what if Ojabo is not the same after the ACL like those are big questions and this is a team that really wants to compete and this is my sidebar Steve I don't see a world I shouldn't say that. The more I evaluate that division, the more I think the Baltimore Ravens are the last place team. Really?

Yes. That's a hot take. I know it is. I know it is. And this is why I've even seen people picking them to win the division. And I think that's Cincinnati. When you look at the rosters of Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, stack them up next to each other.

You can't convince me Pittsburgh doesn't have a better roster. Yeah, I mean, defensively, for sure. Offensively, they've got the talent. The only spot you could argue Baltimore is better is quarterback, and we don't know what that looks like with Todd Monk and Colin plays yet. Right. So I don't know, man. Pittsburgh's defensive roster is way better,

and then they have just as good, if not better, skill players. So I'm having a hard time with all of the Baltimore more off-season love right now. I mean, and that's, you mentioned it with the Ravens. It's purely a big, that people are banking on Monkin coming in and just basically revolutionizing the offense a little bit, changing it from what it was, a very heavy 12, 13 personnel, little to know 11 personnel, and have that offense take off. Correct.

We don't, we don't know if it's going to work. I mean, Lamar did run some more spread concepts at Louisville. But guess what? That was when we saw also the bad side of Lamar. Right. The in the entities, the, you know what? I'm not taking traditional seven-step drops and throwing in rhythm. That's not what he did in that spread at Louisville.

You know, he was a playmaker. Right. Mendez's college quarterback, no doubt. Now, I'm excited to see him with the reins off. I'm excited to see that. Sure. I'm not going to sit here and say, I guarantee it's going to work, though. and even if it does work

this roster has whole man like look at their secondary like they're stacked at safety especially with Steve's cat out there tackling things I know I don't know what is going on with Steve's got out there tag with things they're stacked at safety though

Kyle Hamilton Marcus Williams then they have Marlon Humphrey who's a very good player but after that Rackison has not been very good his career so far there's a reason he's on like his fifth team already. Yeah.

And then Arthur Mallet from Pittsburgh. Like, I don't know. Yeah. This defense would be bad, like really bad. Again, it's a bit, they're banking on, you know, when they brought Roequin Smith and they, you know, they had a, they got better defensively last year. But it really is banking on Mike McDonald's scheme and him being able to draw up an efficient defense.

And, you know, that's all fine and good. but if you don't have the players to do it, then, you know, it could fall flat on their face. Agree. Yeah, you know what, hot take. I'm just going to say they're going to finish last in the division. How about that? I like that.

I hadn't even considered it, really. But now that, like, now that I'm taking more of a dive and looking at their roster, I mean, it's there. That might be the most competitive division. in the NFL, either that or the AFC East. Those two divisions are chock full of anything could happen to

anyone pretty much. And like, you know, it could be four teams with winning records. Like those are, that's like legitimately a possibility. And, you know, I think Cleveland's going to take a step forward this year. They have so much, way too much talent to

have finished the way they finished and to have played the way they played last year. I think that's just, They have to take a step forward this year. Cleveland has a top five roster in the NFL right now. If Deshawn Watson is 80% of what he was in 2020, they're a playoff. Easy. Yeah, have to be.

Obviously, Cincinnati is good. So this is obviously what comes with a caveat of Burroughs, you know, healthy and plays, you know, at least 14-ish games. Right. So Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, you know, not to beat a dead horse, but defensively, they're very good. Deonti Johnson's one of the most underrated receivers in the league. They invest in George Pickens, Alan Robinson, Calvin Austin. We've got a good run game in Naja Harris and Jalen Warren. They've upgraded their offensive line like exponentially this offseason.

Yep. With their first round pick, Broderick Jones, and then adding Isaac Samaloo from the Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl loser Philadelphia Eagles. Whoa, almost slipped up there. So that whole left side of that offensive line's rebuilt now. They're locked and loaded. They're ready to go. If can you pick it takes a step forward?

Look out, Baltimore. You're finishing last place. I mean, Baltimore, like of all those teams, they have the biggest holes. Yep. Yep. All right. I got one more I want to throw out of these. A team that I think is gone under the radar because everyone kind of expected them to retool and rebuild and kind of punt the ball and not play for this year.

But their division is so bad. I think they realized, why not? Why would we do that? try to win the division. That's the Tennessee Titans. And the thing that could hold them back more than anything else is their offensive line. Especially for a team whose identity is we're going to punch you in the face 40 times a game. And it's going to hurt really bad. I just have a hard time thinking it all comes together with this offensive line.

Let's start with the right side. Chris Hubbard is might not even be a replacement level player. He might be worse than that. Daniel Brunskill he worked in that San Francisco system he's just a guy though Aaron Brewer not a good center They are like

This is this is not great Then they're going to rely on Peter Skoronsky demand the left guard spot It looks like which he was my favorite Offens of the line in the draft I think he can do that He's going to have a learning curve there though And stylistically I don't know if I see how Skoronsky

fits their identity as a guard he's not the meanest guy in the world he wasn't this guy going out there making pan king blocks he's a technical savant his technique is super refined and he's a very good player but like that attitude and that kill factor I just I didn't see that

in Skronski's tape that was more of the Tennessee kid that Chicago drafted I liked him better and as a tenant and obviously Tennessee didn't get a chance at him so it's whatever but yeah and then Andre Dillard who has been a he was a project first round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles who has the

best offensive line coach in the league, Jeff Stoutland. He couldn't fix him in Dillard. Playing behind the best, two of the best tackles in the NFL. When he was drafted, he was supposed to start over Jordan Milada. Milata came in the same offseason as part of the international program. Right. And Milata quickly passed him on the depth chart. So Dillard has been a disappointment. I don't see it, guys.

I don't see this offensive line holding up all year to make them as competitive as they want a B. But you know, Mike Vrable's a savant of his own right. So maybe they get it together. I don't know. They're going to be, I think the Tennessee Dightons could play in a lot of 17, 14, 14, 14, 10 games. Their defense is solid. I like their defense. But yeah, on offense, I mean, Tana Hill is going to be, it looks like he could be running for their life. And, you You know, of all the teams in the NFL, Tennessee is one that can somewhat mitigate, in their passing game, somewhat mitigate a poor offensive line. You know, Atlanta kind of did the same thing. It's that Arthur Smith vein of just getting your quarterback on the move constantly and, you know, trying to.

Yeah, heavy play action and just confusing the defense a little bit. But it's not, they're not going to be able to hide it for an entire game, 60 plays, 60, 70 plays on a lot. offense a game. And if they can't, especially if they can't get Derek Henry going, if like, let's say the run, their run offense takes a dip because Henry's getting, you know, like shut down and stuffed in the middle constantly. We've talked about constantly there. I mean, I know they brought in D'Are Hopkins, but still, that's an offense, that's a receiver group that isn't offering you a ton. Correct. Although, I do think it is much better now that Hopkins is in the fold, especially Hopkins re-niting with

Tim Kelly, who's calling their plays, should be good for them. Yeah. But, um, all right, Steve, do one more of these and then we'll get out of here. One more. I, honestly, the, the Jets wide receiver depth. Whoa. Hot take alert. The show is called take talk people, but Steve coming in hot with one.

I did not expect. Okay. I had another one that I, but I think this one is one that they have Garrett Wilson and then they have Alan Lazzard who, like nothing special. Meekle Hardman, who has not panned out. He's the Audrey Dillard of wide receivers.

Right. Corey Davis, who, again, he has his plays, his downs where he does well, but overall is not super impactful down-in, down-end, out. Randall Cobb? I mean, yeah, they have Aaron Rogers as a quarterback, but

the receiver depth is questionable. Did we talk about this last week on the pot or was this, did I do this on John Show where we talked about how Aaron spent years complaining about his receivers to then only bring them all with him? It must have been on John's show.

Yes. I made this point on John's show. But it's true. Like, he literally, literally had how many press conferences throwing the GM under the bus. Right. Because of the lack of investment receiver. And then the first thing he does when he goes to New York is he brings Lazzard and Randall Cobb and Malik Taylor with him and, oh, shoot, now you're stuck with the same situation

you were in. I think this is a hot take to the masses, Steve, but I think you're on to something here. I think Garrett Wilson is a baller, but Alan Lazzard is beyond jaggy. Miko Hardman is kind of a failed experiment so far. If the Chiefs couldn't get the most out of him with his skill set, why are the Jets? How are the Jets going to do that? Right.

Also a new offense. I mean, they're bringing Nathaniel Hackett. I just, the Jets have the potential to be very good. But looking at their depth chart of receivers and even tight ends, Conklin and Uzama, fine. They're fine. I'm the big Conklin guy, but yeah, I hear you. He's not special.

Right. And so, like, yeah, I can see situations where, you know, if a defense focuses on Garrett Wilson and focuses on taking Garrett Wilson away or just lets him get his and then says, okay, you have to make, you have to make, you know, pivotal plays with other guys, who does Rogers turn to? Who's his go-to guy? Is it Lazard? Is it Hardman?

Is it Corey Davis? You know, are they leaning on? Conklin to become a little bit better and develop a little bit more, I, like, I worry a little bit about the offense. There's reason to worry about it. Arts over Corey Davis. That's a crime against humanity. Corey Davis is a much better player than Alan Lazard. And I know Luzard is Roger's boy, and he got paid pretty good money to go there.

You know, one thing that would really fix this unit is if Mekyll Hardman went to the bench, Garrett Wilson went to the slot and then Davis played outside. Yeah. And I know that they don't want Wilson to be pigeonholed into slot guy. Right. Which is fun. Davis can play big slot as well. Lazzards played in the slot in Green Bay a little bit.

Yeah. But, man, getting Davis on the field would really help. Especially Rogers loves those back shoulders, you know, working the back shoulder stuff. Yep. Especially when teams are playing too high. He loves to work that, you know, those cover two shots. Davis is amazing at that stuff. really good at that. That's like what he does.

So I don't know. If you're a team that needs an extra receiver, go get Corey Davis because he's just sitting there doing nothing right now. Yeah. And if you look at the division they're playing in, that is a secondary, strong division. Yes, yes, sir. Miami, you know, they have the Jalen Ramsey injury, but still that, you know, Miami's secondary is, I like their secondary. The bills have had a strong secondary for, you know, years they've got some young guys that are starting to develop and get a year more a year under their belt and then um i'm blinking on the other team new england new england who they look their defense you know is going to be really good again yeah and so that like just the six games in their

division is going to be hard tough sledding for those of that receiver group i think and it that could it could potentially be the downfall it's been the downfall for Aaron Rogers for the past couple years. Right. And, you know, you hate to see that it's just different team, same story potentially. Exactly. Well, that's crazy to think about, actually. So where they're really hoping to make up ground, obviously, is that scheme, the run-heavy,

wide-zone scheme, they're going to work Brees. They're going to work, you know, Zonovan Knight. They're going to work Izzy of anaconda. It should look like a San Francisco offense. So the idea being you can isolate, you know, get Garrett Wilson isolated like they do Debo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk and, you know, get those one-on-one matchups. He can win those. But like you said, it's a tough division to do that against because all those defenses are pretty good. Yeah.

I mean, I could see it where teams just let Garrett Wilson go 10 for 170 each week and then shut down the rest of the guys. And Aaron Rogers has 220 passing yards. Yeah. Yeah, there might be weeks like that. I think Rogers is good enough. He'll transcend a lot like he has. Yeah. But if I were with them, I would probably be looking.

What's funny, and the reason I thought this was a hot take Steve is I think a lot of people think they have a ton of depth at receiver. Right. I thought that is too. Of guys you know their name. Like Randall Cobb is like their fifth receiver. So it's like, oh, wow, they're super. No, Randall Cobb can't play football anymore, guys. Like, it's done. It's over.

He's 32 years old. He's 32 years old. No one other than Garrett Wilson offers you any dynamic in a league where you need two dudes now. Yeah. You need at least two good receivers or you need a good receiver and a good great tight end. But you need two dudes now. If you have one dude, you can take one dude away. Yep.

You have a harder time taking two dudes away. So pretty much every high-powered passing offense has at least two dudes now, minus the Kansas City Chiefs. but that's because they have God playing quarterback. So it's different. They have God and God's right hand running the offense. Exactly. All right, let's get out of here.

That was a fun topic. We'll be back next week. Check out the FantasyPoint Data Suite. It's data.com. I don't think there's a trial still running, although I don't actually know because I know we're stupidly generous and like to give things away for free. So anyways, if you haven't checked it out,

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