Fantasy Football Daily - The Draft Betting Market One Day Out with Tom Brolley | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

The NFL Draft has some of the most sensitive line movements in all of sports betting, as anonymous (and unsubstantiated) rumors can lead to major action. Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) welcomes in Fantasy Points betting lead Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) to discuss the latest shifts just over 24 hours away from the start of the 2023 NFL Draft. BRETT WHITEFIELD'S 2023 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT GUIDE IS FREE TO READ WITH A NO-CHARGE LOGIN AT FANTASY POINTS. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode of On the Clock. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. And today I am joined by Mr. Tom Brawley of FantasyPoint.com. He is one of our co-founders. He is the betting expert at the site.

Tom, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me on here. I've enjoyed the series. You've been crushing it with these daily podcasts. I feel like I guess I'm like one of the last guests. Does that make me an honored guest to kind of wrap up this series? You're an honored guest for more than one reason, Tom, for sure. But yeah, I mean, we're what, less than 36 hours out?

Less than 36 hours out from the draft from round one. So I figured it'd be a good time to have you on to talk. Betting. You also will join us on the live stream. We'll have for those listening, if you want to watch the live stream, it's going to be fantastic. Me and Scott Barrett with producer Thomas, Thursday night and Friday night, giving you, you know, wall-the-wall coverage of the draft. And Tom's going to be guest one on Thursday night.

We'll be touching up on all the betting options there as you head into the round. On the first and the last, you know, the last on the first on the first. podcast first on the hit on hitting all the uh the big notes here so i'm i'm looking forward to that that's what that's gonna be on the fantasy fantasy points uh youtube stream uh live stream i guess yep yep fantasy points youtube account it will be live streamed there all right tom let's jump right into it so the first thing i wanted to pick your brain about is what in the hell is vegas thinking allowing reddit to move lines the way that what what happened yesterday that this was like I need an overview of this, a breakdown of what actually happened here.

There was just a poster on Reddit yesterday that said that he knows Will Levis and has information that he'll be going. He'll be selected number one overall by the Carolina Panthers. And these markets, they set limits. They're not taking massive bets. But anytime significant bets start to come in, they're going to move the market. They're not, you know, they're just kind of like us. They don't have necessarily inside information. They don't have connections with the teams to know exactly.

Because this is different from, you know, they can run numbers during the season and they have an idea of, you know, what a spread should be, what a player prop should be. But this is the NFL draft, betting on the NFL draft, is more of an information game than anything else. So they don't know for sure if that, maybe that guy does have connections. Maybe he does have some sort of information. So they're going to follow the. money, and they certainly did. He was 50 to 1 to be the first overall pick before the Reddit post

yesterday. And now, looking at Fandall right now, he's the second favorite at 6 to 1 behind Bryce Young. Bryce Young is still the overwhelming favorite at minus 1,000. He was, I think he was out to minus 2,000 at some point in the last couple of days before the Levis leak on Reddit came out yesterday. So I yeah, Levis got it to as high as four to one. Yeah. To be the first overall pick, which is wild to see that. Like you said, 40 to 50 to one on most sites when we woke up yesterday. And then, you know, within a couple hours, things dramatically shifted there.

So I have a theory that that guy, the leaker there is a disgruntled Panthers employee. Yeah. Who's like, I want Willis. I'm willing this to happen. And I'm just going to post this on Reddit. Maybe it's David Tepper. Maybe it's one of his like sons or something. You know, a grandson or yeah.

Exactly. Yeah. So, I mean, that's crazy. So, I mean, obviously, Vegas is still favoring Bryce Young pretty heavily to be the run overall pick. So I think maybe that that's still safe. Are you taking any bait on the Levis thing or no? No, I have not.

He's, he's fascinating. He's kind of a wild card at the top of this draft. I mean, he could go anywhere from number two, and maybe he even falls down into the mid first round at some point. He's kind of him and CJ Stroud, all these remaining quarterbacks, they could really go anywhere. I mean, Adam Schaefter said, you know, last week that he would not be surprised if quarterbacks don't go two, three.

And I would be surprised, but Levis is now the, you know, plus 300 to go number two overall. Tyree Wilson's plus 125, Will Anderson's plus 300. So this draft, there's just a lot of information out there and there's not a lot of certainty. It feels like we've had a better idea what was going to happen in recent years. This is kind of as wide open as I can remember. Tom, I've been working on.

So my one and only predictive mock comes out today on FantasyPoint.com. This is the mock that we enter into the huddle report contest. So it's kind of a big deal. I started writing it at 6 a.m. after my workout. And I've thrown it away seven different times and started over. This is the craziest year. I'm a very confident individual and I am not confident in any.

Like you'll start to get in a groove. You're like, oh, yeah, yeah, cool. This makes sense. I could see this playing out. And then all of a sudden you hit a pick. You're like, well, what the frick? I can't. That doesn't make any sense.

So then you go back and redo the whole thing. Or then you realize you forgot Peter Skoronski or you forgot Nolan's Smith and just like throw your hands up in there like I don't I don't know what's happening this is this is just insane yeah I don't envy people that are trying to I don't personally do a mock I mean I have you know I have I have a general idea of where I think players could go and if you're betting on the NFL draft I think you you should have at least a rough outline of what you think could happen and what might happen and but I don't envy anybody that's doing mock drafts right now but I guess it opens up some opportunities maybe for betting more long shots maybe betting things that are, you know, a little less uncertain than in past years. So like one bet I put out there, and it's gotten some steam this over the last week, but I got it at 20 to 1 posted on the site was the Patriots to draft a quarterback. Feels like there is some smoke there that Bill Belichick and Mack Jones aren't on the same page. There was an athletic report a couple of weeks ago.

Pro football talk got, you know, Mike Florio got a little. bit of, you know, not heat, but he got some blowback for reporting at the Patriots shop Mac Jones, but it seems like there is some validity there. And we all know that the Texans and Nick Asario have connections with New England. Bobby Sloick was on that 49er staff that was looking very hard at both Trey Lance and Mac Jones. So I would not be stunned if something like, you know, the Patriots moving up to number two and draft, you know, Send him Mack Jones, the 14th pick. Maybe a three, round three, around four pick.

Probably a three this year and second next year, too. Exactly. So, and that kind of, it seems like the Texans aren't very interested in these remaining quarterbacks. So I don't think they want to run it back with Davis Mills. They collect more picks for next year's draft. You know, they already have the additional pick from the Cleveland Browns. if they trade back, that gives them three picks to potentially, you know, do some moving around next year and next year's draft, which, which will feature Caleb Williams.

So do I think it's going to happen? Probably not. But when I bet it at 20 to 1, I thought those odds were great. It has been bet down. I was seeing like 9 to 1 yesterday. I haven't seen the most recent bet. But I still think that's worth a small little bet there for something crazy to happen. Oh, yeah. I have. I only have. the same bet 20 to 1 Patriots Take the QB. I mocked them Will Levis and the staff mocked that we did Tom. Okay. You know, I think there's enough smoke there.

I mean, you already mentioned Mac Jones and the Bobby Sloat connection. Well, what about Trey Lance in the Bobby Sloat connection? There's smoke there as well. I mean, listen, would it shock me if the Texans decided, you know what? We'd rather go with a Jones or a Lance and it allows him to still play for next year, too.

Yeah, if he's, if Mac Jones and Trey You know, continue to struggle or whatever. Maybe they break out and, you know, you found your guy, but it still gives them that leeway to, you know, turn back to next year's draft and see what happens there. Cost of acquisition is what I'm looking at here. So like the cost to acquire Jones or Lance is going to be significantly cheaper than drafting a quarterback at second overall.

And so, you know, you throw a dart if he plays well this year, cool. We might not need a quarterback next year. But we have the ammo if we do need one. So it kind of works out. It seems like they kind of, they would love to get Bejeon. There's been a lot of talk with them. Just absolutely loving him.

That, you know, they can move back. It seems like they want to get one of these defenders, too. It's D'Amico Rines. He wants to get an edge defender or maybe defensive line. You know, one of these defenders there. If you're picking at 12 and 14, you have a chance to take that approach. Maybe get Bejon at 12 and take like a Lucas Van Ness or maybe if Nolan Smith. I don't think Nolan Smith's going to.

but maybe if he's still around there in the middle of the time. I'm sorry. You do think he's going to fall. Yes. Okay, because I have a top 10 on him. I hope not. I've got a plus 175. It's been bet down to I think he's about plus 100 now.

So the problem with Nolan is his really only two outs are Atlanta and Philly, barring crazy trade's happening. I'm buying into the Bijon to Atlanta smoke. and then in my perfect world of trades, I think the Eagles make a move for Carter. I don't think they'll stand at 10 and get him, but I do think maybe they move up and get him. Okay.

I was more in the camp. I thought Atlanta might go with defense. I feel like they're really trying to build up that defense this off season and some of their moves kind of signal that. And they have essentially a rookie quarterback here. I don't know. I could see them go on Bejohn. I mean, Arthur Smith comes from that Tennessee background and having that dominant running back.

But I could see them trying to piece together running back to another year. Yeah, and Arthur just likes to chase unicorns in general, right? Like A.J. Brown, Derek Henry, both kind of unicorn-ish-type players. They got Kyle Pitts, Drake London. Now that would be, like, I don't know. It's not a perfect mock by any means. Yeah, but if you go the other direction, he's, he's certainly a unicorn. I mean, he's, you know, it's what, 6-2-238, and he ran that blazing 40, you know, 4-3-9 at

the at the combine and I've heard some people. Tested like a cornerback. What's that? He tested like a cornerback, but he plays defensive then. So yeah, he's certainly. No, I hear you, man. I hear you. I'm struggling with Nolan.

That's what makes his draft unique. I mean, you can, you could draw a hundred different directions that the Falcons could go. I mean, maybe they beef up that offensive line even more. Do they go defensive line? You know, the cornerback is certainly still a need for them. I know they did the trade with your Detroit lines, but they could certainly still go quarterback. So that's what makes this why you've been tearing up your mock drafts today.

Yeah, exactly. Exactly. All right, Tom, why don't you tell us, I know, you're deep into the betting markets as far as the draft goes. Why don't you like any running back, what's the running back market looking like? Any bets you're liking? What about receiver? Yeah, the one, the prop that's been very, there's two props that have been very interesting to me this week is the over under one and a half back selected. It's been getting hammered this week ever since Todd McShay released an insider article on ESPN saying that a lot of teams were asking about Jemir Gibbs. So he thinks that Gibbs could go in the first round now. And we know that the running back position has been devalued by the league, but it makes some sense. There's been a lot of talk out there. I know

Bean from the Bills and some other GMs have been out there saying, we only have 17, round grades for players. So it would make sense that maybe a team at the back half of the first round is more willing to make a move for a Jemir Gibbs, who they think could be, you know, Alvin Kamar comp has been out there quite a bit and God, it could be a difference maker for them. And the Bengals are certainly a team that seems like they could be in the market for a running back with Joe Mixen and his issues. And maybe a team trades back into the back end of the first round to take a player like Gibbs.

So I thought that market was pretty fascinating. You could have bet over one and a half just a couple of weeks ago and gotten a nice plus price. And the last I saw was like minus 215 here on Wednesday before the draft. So it's been bet heavily. And the other one is the quarterbacks over four and a half in the first round. I know you were one of the first to have Hendon Hooker in the first round of your mock draft. I don't know which version of that.

Maybe it was your 2.0 or, yeah, I think it was 2.0. I was the first. You were the first. You saw it coming. So now that is, that's getting really blown out. Let's see here. It's minus 275 now that five quarterbacks go in the first round.

So you could get that plus 198 under. I might do that. What's that, the under? I might hit the under. As much as I like. and there's enough red flags there to think a team teams will pass on him. I'm totally with you. That's,

I've been writing that in my article. I've been, I've been kind of scared off from it. There's a, it seems to be a lot of smoke there that one of these teams could pick him. But you're right. There's, you know,

he's an older prospect. I have it in my article. He's seven months older than Jalen Hertz. Yeah. He just got a second quarter contract from the Eagles. Played in kind of a gimmicky offense with Tennessee. it's coming off an ACL injury. It took them a while to break.

You had to go from Virginia Tech to Tennessee to really break out. So there's a lot of red flags there. But as we were saying, there's not a whole lot of first round guys. So maybe this makes it more palatable for some of these teams to maybe take a little bit of a risk in draft the Jamir Gibbs or a hending hooker at the end of the first round. Yeah, that's a great point. The lack of, I mean, to be honest, Tom, like every year, I think most teams are somewhere between like 17 and 23-ish first round grades. This year's obviously the light side of that.

I have 22 first round grades, but I give positional value bumps to receivers, corners, and quarterbacks. So I think that's skewing my numbers a little bit. But ultimately, you combine that with the fact that like this receiver group isn't great at the top. like the sweet spot for receivers second early third round if you need a receiver that's where all these guys are very similar in the in skill and and develop skill sets so unless you get j sn at the you know somewhere in the teens or early tens there's not a whole lot of value to like splurging on a zay flowers or quentin johnson the first round there just isn't so those two things combined

if we only get three receivers in the first round well you're open in the door like the last few years we've had six, seven receivers going to first round. Last year, everybody was moving up jockeing to get into the right position to draft a wide receiver. I thought it was, I'm a Steelers fan, so I follow them probably a little closer than most teams. And I thought it was fascinating. They're the best or one of the best at drafting these day two and day three wide receivers. And I thought I found it very interesting that they would go out and trade for an Alan Robinson, who's looked washed the last two years,

I thought that said something about maybe the overall quality of the wide receiver depth this year, that they don't think that maybe they can find that guy in the round three and later this year. So let's go out and get an Allen Robinson to be kind of an insurance plan if Calvin Austin is hurt or doesn't develop again in his second season. We have this backup plan for the slot.

Yeah, that definitely, a really interesting point. It also is interesting. Like, there's not a lot of guys that do what Robinson does in this draft specifically. Like that possession, contested catch type guy, bigger body, bigger frame, play strength. Not a lot of those guys. So I think it speaks to how limited the draft class is from that standpoint, but also like maybe a change of philosophy there. Like they have George Pickens, Deonti Johnson's, you know, he is a smaller guy, but he plays primarily. on the outside. Not only primarily,

nobody plays on the outside more than Deonti Johnson does, like his percentage of snaps. It's insane. So, like, what are they going to do? Is Robinson just a big slot now? Is Prigginsom? You think so? Yeah, I think so. They, you know, we're using Chase Claypole as kind of that bigger slot receiver last year.

And, yeah, the major problem for them last year was, Kenny Pickett, you know, they couldn't score in the red zone. They couldn't convert when they got down near the red zone. So I think, I think bringing Allen Robinson was in kind of a move to, let's get a bigger body in the slot here, help us out with some of our red zone woes

and give him one of those bigger options down near the goal line. So, but I do, I do see them probably primarily using him out of the slot. Maybe, you know, we'll see maybe it's kind of matchup dependent. Maybe, you know, Calvin Austin is like the completely opposite type of receiver than he's on the smaller side. I know he's been getting some like tank dell, you know, he's on the smaller side in this year's class. and Calvin Austin was kind of that guy in last year's class. I liked Calvin Austin every bit as much as people like Tankdale this year. I think he was a phenomenal prospect.

I was surprised he went where he went, and I think he could be very, very good. I'm hoping so it was frustrating that we didn't get to see him at all, you know, with the foot injury and just never, never even really got the practice or, you know, it was a pretty early injury and then it sounded like he aggravated the injury again. and couldn't play and had to get surgery. But I'm interested to see where he goes.

And we'll see where Tank Dell goes. Because Austin was a fourth round pick last year. So we'll see where a guy like Tank Dell falls this year. Yep. Yeah, I had a day two grade on Austin last year. And I have a late day two grade on Tank Dell this year. Slip my mind. I'm officially in most brain mode.

So how about this wide receiver market? any interesting bet sticking out to you? Yeah, I did hit one. I did like Jordan Addison under 23 and a half. Just there's a lot of, there are some wide receiver needy teams right in that range. He's got a connection with Chris Beatty with Los Angeles Chargers. He was the guy that recruited him to Maryland initially. Then Beatty moved on to Pittsburgh.

You know, dug up an article from 2020 when Addison was breaking out with Pitt and, you know, Beatty and Addison are, you know, just basically best friend. Like he's a father figure for him. And he, of course, went on to the Los Angeles Chargers last year. And Addison moved to USC as a matter of fact, right in the neighborhood. So I'm sure they stayed in touch last year. So, and we know the Chargers are kind of looking for a wide receiver or tight end help. So we got an out there.

We got the Ravens are in that same range at 22. We got the Vikings at 23. So I took a little roll of the dice there. I am scared overall, though. It seems like this wide receiver class overall has been, as you said, losing some steam here. Although I'm looking at the numbers this morning, the over three and a half has been getting bet up today. It's minus 138. It was kind of basically a pickum here earlier this week.

So maybe there is some late momentum for some of these wide receivers to be drafted in the first round. Is there any day two props? No, we probably really won't see those until Friday. Nothing quite like that. Yeah, I do believe, I don't have the book in front of me. I'm trying to think which book was, but there was, there are some books that have like second, you know, running back selected, you know, second tight end, third tight end.

So those are kind of day two picks. But the only one that's really, you know, after the day one of the draft is the Stetson-Bennett stuff. I'm not touching it. What's that? I'm not touching it. I think the favorite is for him to go undrafted. So, yeah, plus 100 from the go undrafted.

You know, plus 300, seventh round, plus 350, six rounds. So I think there was some initial buzz that maybe he could be an early day three pick. But yeah, he's another one of these older problems. prospects that I think there's some off the field red flags he's big time off the field stuff yeah so that's why I'm not like the most well connected guy in the world but I do have some you know team people I talk to

and the consistent team for all of them has been yeah no thanks yeah no thanks not worth the the pain so so you were you would suggest looking at that plus 100 for the undrafted yes yes for sure do we get in do we have any over unders on players, like, deeper into the draft. There's a mostly consensus first round guys.

Mostly consensus first round guys. I always think about as Amon Raz over under. It was like, it was like under 102. And I made, I bet the under like, this is by far the easiest bet I've ever made in my entire life. And then he went like one six under one seven. What do you end up going? Like 106 or 107, something like that, maybe 114. I know it was like a few picks after his over under.

And I was like, I can't even. they watching the same player I am? Right, exactly. And then what happened? Yeah, he blew up. You were right the entire time. Yeah, there's not a whole lot. I'll say this in general about the NFL draft props.

This year, books have really scaled back what they've been offering. They've been absolutely clobbered the last few years. It's a promotional thing. They, you know, they set the limits. You're not going to get, you know, five figures. figures down on these bets anyway, but they've just absolutely been get clobbered by them. So they've been really limiting the rollout here. So the markets aren't nearly as robust as they have been in years past.

And of course, this is the most difficult draft to probably predict, as you were saying, about your mock draft. So it's a tough combination for the draft props this year. Absolutely. All right. Before we go, Tom, give me one. one more thing and I would like to know as a Steelers fan how are you feeling about that pick at 17 because originally I was hot on darn all right like that is obviously their guy he breathes he

literally bleeds Steelers colors but now I think he's going to go earlier in 17 so I have no idea what to do there I'm holding out hope I'm holding out hope I'm with you I that was kind of the guy I had circled at the beginning of the process uh his over and under I saw this morning uh is it 15 and a half in the the the month is towards the over here. So there is, that gave me a little bit of hope that he could still be around at 17. I think they would jump on that immediately. Yeah.

You know what's crazy though, Tom? I'm pretty sure he's like the second, he's the second highest odds to be the first offensive lineman off the board. And I think he's the favorite to be the second offensive lineman off the board right now. At least he was at some point this week. So I think the book's a little incongruent there with the over under and the, the favorite to be first or second offensive linemen. So there might be an edge to bet there, actually.

Yeah, he's been getting a lot of steam here. Broderick Jones is kind of the one guy that's fallen a little bit here. I see he's plus 1,600 to be the first lineman drafted. Wright has definitely passed him here. He's 8 to 1. I did give out of Brodwick Jones over 13 and a half. And I got that at a good price last week and feel a lot better about that after the New York Jets traded from 13 to 15, that certainly has helped that bet.

But yeah, I'm looking how ideally the Steelers take Darnel Wright, kind of solidify that offensive line for Kenny Pickett here. If not, maybe we can get one of those corners. I would, you know, Joey Porter, Jr., close to my heart. You know, obviously his dad played for the Steelers. And then he came to play at Penn State, which is my alma alma mater. So I have a soft spot for Joe. Joey Porter Jr. Deontay Banks would also be no issues with, you know, drafting him out of Maryland.

But I think it's going to be. What do you think? Go ahead. Sorry, what do you think about Brian Brise? I'll be cool with that. That's definitely, I think, the third priority, though. I think they attack offensive tackle. I think they, you know, they go either offensive tackle, cornerback with the first pick, kind of flip that with that first pick and the second. round and then maybe they start to attack defensive line. But I know Anton Harrison is another guy that's been picking up some momentum here. He's now basically a virtual lock to be drafted in the first round. And the Steelers have been.

I think that's this draft class for you. Like Harrison is not a first round player to me. But when you're limited on first round grades, you end up at the back, when you're at the back of the first round, you're just going to take, you know, premium positions. That's what ends up happening. Harrison at 17 would be way too soon. Yeah, that's my feeling too. That's what if those top four offensive linemen are off the board,

then I think you go pivot to one of these cornerbacks, if it's Joey Porter Jr. or Deontaine Banks. I think they should be able to get one of those three guys in that range. Even if Darnell Wright would go earlier, I think, you know, pivoting to Project Jones is fine by me. It seems like he'll be a bit of a project. But, yeah, I think they should be able to get one. of their picks, their offensive tackle or cornerback.

Right. If Porter Jr. is on the board, and so is Darnell right. What direction do they go? I think they go Darnel right. I think that would maybe disappoint some of the Yinsers in Pittsburgh, but I think they go offensive tackle. I think they, you know, you draft a quarterback first overall, 20th overall, first round last year. You got to continue to build around him and get that offensive tackle. you know, offensive line has been kind of an issue spot for them the last few years.

I think it played better as the season went along last year. They certainly had a lot of injury luck. I think they were the only team that had the same combination of the starting five all year long, all year long. But you've got to continue to build that offensive line up. And yeah, if it was me, I hope they go Dornel, right? Get that offensive lineman. Right on. All right.

That is going to do it for us. Tom. Thank you so much for joining the show. You guys can catch him on Twitter. What is your handle on Twitter time? Tom Broly, I believe. It's either that or at T-Brawley. I think it's at Tom Brawley.

So, B-R-O-L-L-E-Y. Yeah, Tom's a content machine. He's got a ton of good stuff on the site. I know his best bets futures article just dropped yesterday. Yeah, I've been updating them all. I've been updating for the last month. So I'll probably, this is Wednesday here. So I'll go through the draft props one more,

time here. I'll do one final update for, you know, all of my, you know, my best bets articles and see if there's anything still out there that I like, you know, this is an evolving market. So maybe something will pop up here in the last minute. But yeah, check out the site. And there's plenty of articles up there for you. Awesome. Good stuff. Thank you, Tom. We will see you tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.