Fantasy Football Daily - The Fantasy RB Market and Projections vs. Rankings with Jake Ciely | 2Barz Podcast

Episode Date: August 22, 2023

Jake Ciely (@allinkid) from @TheAthleticFS joins Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and @GrahamBarfield to discuss Jake's projection process, the difference between "rankings" and "projections," and how to draft this year's fantasy RB market. READ DR. EDWIN PORRAS' INJURY [PRO]NE GUIDE WITH CODE INJURYPRONE25: https://injuryproneguide.myshopify.com/ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠ ⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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So what better time to kick back off two bars. And bring in one of our good friends is Mr. Athletic, Mr. Jake Sealy, all in kid. Jake, how you doing, man? I'm doing good, although you might say Mr. The Athletic, because I don't know how athletic I really, yeah. I was always like somewhat good, like just above average. I'm basically like I'm the 53rd man of the Deptart over here.

Oh, you're, you're number one on the depth chart in our hearts, Jake. Number one in our hearts for sure. Excited to talk some ball with you. We're going to talk some projections. Your projection process today. And we'll go through that. Scott, get to you, man. How are you doing?

I'm doing great. Just excited two bars is back. Yeah. Big, big day. Yeah, more than overdue. Bring it back here for the season. Yeah, man. It's a good time.

Can I say two terrific beards, too? Like, I feel subpar in that fashion as well compared to you two. Two bars, two beards. Two bars, two beards. Three boys. Let's go. Yeah, week 15 in my beard's like. like down to my neck.

Scott and I are like ready for the off season. But not, man. It's good to talk to you. Good to talk, ball. We'll go through some projections today. And Jake, you spend a lot of time, obviously, building projections at the athletic. It's a big part of what you do. It's obviously a huge part of what we do in fantasy.

We'll just get started off the top. Like, is there any difference for you between rankings and projections? And if there are, like, what is that distinction for you? Yeah, it's quite a difference. That's why I saw my. So I have my projections, the customizable sheet, as you mentioned, where people can guide and go say, hey, Jake, you're dumb. I think this is what's going to happen. And that's what the whole point is, is you can customize it, not just through your scoring, but if you disagree with me.

And that's why my rankings are actually different to my projections as well. I'm assuming most people are similarly is the projections are just going to be points more than points, more than points, more than points, more than points. It doesn't factor in upside versus risk. It doesn't factor in roster construction. It doesn't factor in a lot of things, which is why I will draft differently than my projections, you know, where somebody might pop off at wide receiver 40, be like, oh, you know what? The upside for him being Y receiver potentially 20 is much greater than, yeah, okay, does he probably finish around Y receiver 40, 90 times out of 100?

Sure, but the upside of it, like a Gabe Davis this year is a perfect example. Everybody loved Gabe Davis last year, and obviously we've cooled off of him a little bit, but, you know, projections might spin him out Y receiver 38, but if he gets back, to even two years ago as a full-time basis, there's top 20 upside. So I'm going to rank him higher than the projections. I think that's like absolutely crucial is do not draft off of projections, draft off of rankings. I got into quite a bit of trouble a few years ago being critical of the fantasy pros rankings process or contest. A lot of people draft off of that. And I just think that's like the absolute worst way to do it because those rankings are designed to win the contest where

you know you want to be accurate but that's not how you should draft in fantasy remember on the upside wins championships guys so like rounds five beyond you really want to be focusing only on upside with your projections and so in that it's like oh uh james white is the consensus rb 22 and he's being drafted as the rb 29 but i'm like yeah but he's a horrible pick for fantasy because a low end RB2 is worthless. It doesn't even matter if he beats his ADP, doesn't have that upside. And, you know, no disrespect to the fantasy pros contest.

But yeah, like the last two times we entered that, or maybe even three times, Joe Dolan, I think, won it. But, like, you're not drafting off of our projections. You're taking an L, that's minus EV if you're doing that. I think Gabe Davis was a great example. Another one is like Isaiah likely. It's like, what do you project for Isaiah likely? It's like 2.5 catches per game and a tight end 30 finish, something like that.

It's like, okay, but what if Mark Andrews suffers an injury in week two, then he's a league winner? Then he's an amazing pick in FFPC, tight end premium leagues, an amazing pick in underdog tournament formats, probably a bad pick everywhere else. But it's like that upside, whatever your projection say are probably right, but you need to factor in that sort of upside, players like him and Gabe Davis when you're drafting your own leagues. For sure. And I think another layer to this, and Scott, you know, I talk about this all the time is tiered rankings. So knowing, you know, where certain players go in certain pockets and how you are drafting those players. And Jake, you kind of touched on an important angle with roster construction. Like, I'm a very dynamic drafter. Like, you know, I have my projections. I have

my rankings. But, you know, if I start my draft with three receivers, you know, I'm probably going to be bumping up a lot of running backs in the fifth and sixth round range. I'm going to be taking those guys. I'm going to be getting my targets slightly ahead of 80p. So it's also a factor of just knowing who's on your team and knowing how you want to build. And also your league rules, like I can't stress this enough. You know, in drafts that you guys are going to be doing the next two to three weeks as we as we lead in this season. Like, if you're in a league where you only start two wide receivers, like you should be bumping up the running backs. And conversely, if you're in a league where you start three or more receivers, you need to be bumping up the receivers way more.

So this is a part of the dynamic drafting is like knowing your league rules, I still think is the number one edge. And being able to exploit those in your draft is the number one edge. Jake, let's let's kind of flip the tone here. I have a question really quick. Who are, who are some players that are you're really struggling with when you're doing your projections where you're like, well, I could see him being this high or I could see him being this low, maybe like a wide range of outcomes. One player who comes to mind for me is Aaron Jones, uh, 2019, 16 rushing touchdowns, then nine, then four, then last year, two, uh, gets a lot of targets, probably 50, 50 with A. J. Dillon in terms of carries, but last year, A.J. Dillon had like five times as many carries inside

the five yard line. What should Green Bay do the, Aaron Jones is one of the most efficient touchdown scores of all time, great inside the red zone. Like he should, in my opinion, get that role, but it's just, I don't think they want that for him. And I don't know how to tackle that from a projection standpoint. I feel like if you just go right down the middle, then, you know, like you're going to be wrong because, you know, like if he doesn't get that role, he's a wasted pick. If he does, you know, he's a great value. What do you think, Jake? Yeah, I would say the player. And I'm inside my head over here, my article that's coming out this week is where my projections in ADP are the biggest gap differences. And that's the article I have.

One of them at wide receiver is Debo Samuel. That's the one guy I really don't know what to do with because of what you just said. Like, my projections have him as wide receiver 28. Is there upside for top 15? Yes. Is there a floor where he's not even 28? Because what we're sitting here looking at is we got a very small sample of Brock Purdy. But if we take that sample, what did Brock Purdy tell us?

Is George Kittle in the red zones is number one? Brandon Ayukes is number one wide receiver. And Debo Samuel is not used as the backfield as much because of Christian McKinsey. But is it, you know, it's kind of the chicken and the egg. Is it because Debo wasn't 100% healthy and those touches out of the backfield? They're really evaporated and it's only going to be one or two. Or is that going to come back around and maybe Eli Mitchell's not even a factor unless Christian McGaffrey gets hurt?

Does Brock Purdy adjust? And now Debo sees more targets. There is such a wide range where I can see Debo finishing 12th and I can see Debo finishing 48th. And as you said, kind of look, if you play the middle ground, Debo at 28th's wrong. he's either too high or too low. Yeah, Debo, I think Debo has been a lynchpin guy for a lot of people that have struggled to figure out in the third round. I've been higher on him in the five games that Brock Purdy, McCaffrey, and Debo all play together.

Debo led the team in targets per route round by far. 0.26 over Iuke and Kittle at 0.19. And then like you mentioned, you know, Debo is, you know, he was hurt all last year, three different injuries, knee, hamstring. And I think he heard his ankle too. You know, Iyuk's awesome, like for sure. but Debo to me is still the wide receiver one but he's he's tricky man and I want to I wanted to bring up kind of that whole pocket really like that third to fourth fifth round range is really tricky and especially for running backs and I know Debo's not a running back anymore

you know he's not doing the wide back thing anymore he's he's probably going to strictly be a wide receiver but who are some of the running backs in that kind of like third fourth fifth round pocket that either project well and therefore they're higher in your rankings or are there any guys that you have like big stands on kind of in that in that pocket for running backs yeah so i'm going to save one for a question later when we have a committee backfield situation that we're trying to parse through because there's one that i really love in there but if we hit to the top end of it it's the damien pierce is one that i've been a lot higher i was a lot higher on last year i said talent's going to win out in this backfield uh similar to tyler algier who's now taking a back seat

to some terrific running back but damien pierce we knew the question was going to be is he going we get the third down work is devon singletary brought in to be a timeshare piece what's going to happen the first game in the preseason devon singletary profiled and again we're trying to parse through what preseason really is but it at least looks like he's the backup plan and it's more a gumbal wali might be the past catcher and then we see week two and that's ho damien pierce is staying on the field for third downs saying for that third and long and if he's a bell cow which is that's what i've been projecting and profiling him as damien pierce even on the houston texans we were talking about top 15 potential running back and at worst case he's probably rb 16 maybe worst case scenario of

obviously injury aside but i'm super high on him in that range i i hate to go back to the cam acre as well after what happened last year promoting him in the fifth round and everybody hates me i don't think i have the right to talk about cam makers anymore um but there's one that it kind of kind of answers both questions it goes back to scott's question about who's somebody like with a range of outcomes that's frustrating me and then somebody I'm high on. It's J.K. Dobbins. Like on the one end, I'm like, hey, I don't care if he only gets 200 carries. Mark Ingham got 200 carries and he's RB10 that year. You're stepping in next to Lamar Jackson. But the other side of it, and that's not even including the last five games last year where he was amazing. He was an RB1. It's what's going on?

Like, is this a real knee issue or is this a quote unquote knee issue? And he was just frustrated about a contract because if it's a real one and there's been a few people floating out, And it's just unquantifiable rumors right now is like the knee keeps swelling up. They're just holding them out because they don't like how. If that's the case, that could be a messy, messy pick. And we go right back down to J.K. Dobbins' hole of, you know, frustration the entire year. A little bit lower than that. And this is one I'm coming around slowly on.

I was a proponent of pushing back against James Cook because I've been a proponent of saying, you got Josh Allen who runs it in too much. We're going back to the Cam Newton years. Like, if we got one running back next to Cam Newton, Yay, but it was two. And I was like, Damien Harris has been great at the goal line. But the name is Harris got hurt. And Damon Harris has been still banged up as of today.

And now I'm coming around saying, well, if James Cook is the only real threat in that backfield, you know, Josh Allen taking a six, seven, eight rushing touchdowns, I'm okay with because if James Cook is going to get 65% of the touches, I'm okay with that then. But my concern previously was that Damien Harris was going to take too much away from him. Yeah, I wanted to talk about just two of the players you mentioned. One, J.K. Dobbins, I'm with you. He's really tough for me to rank. I think one thing people are missing is that he's kind of this all of practice and training camp. And that's really bad when there's a brand new offense that I think really hurt Darren Waller last year, just not knowing the nuances of this new Josh McDaniels offense. And I think he very well could be in the doghouse. And then on top of that, you know, he's missed more career games. games than career games he's played, but you're right. Like the upside is undeniable.

He's one of the most efficient runners ever when he's healthy. He looked great at the tail end of last year. There's talks that, you know, Todd Monkin wants the running backs more involved in the passing game. He's only ever been a 50-50 committee back, but maybe that changes. And then Damien Pierce is probably the player I've bumped up more than anyone this preseason.

I was just projecting a lot more of a committee. I don't think Devon Singletary is very good, but I think he is more of a threat than anyone else he had last year. And, you know, Bobby Slowick coming from this Shanehand run scheme, which is very in favor of committees. And then Matthew Berry put out a tweet where something like, you know, Damien Pierce's ADP makes no sense to me. He's going to be an every down bell cow back behind a really good offensive line.

And so I slithered into DMs. I'm like, hey, do you have sources on this? He's like, nope, just that's what I think is going to happen. And so I did a little bit more research, and I found a quote from about a week ago. He asked if Pierce is going to be more involved in the passing game. And he was like, yes, yes, absolutely yes. That's why I'm losing weight, man. Bobby Slowick has me running all these routes.

And that's encouraging. Like, I try to underreact to preseason more than definitely not overreact. That's bit me more times than not. And sure, he's gotten like a bell cow roll, a lot of routes running. run on obvious passing situations, which he didn't get last year. But sometimes these coaches just want to like see a guy in every snap, then pull him, then put a new running back in, see him on every snap and pull him. But this is a player.

I did go out of my way to bump up over a Cam Acres who I think there's more uncertainty regarding his past catching usage. Yeah, I've bumped up Dame Pierce too. I had similar concerns with you, Scott. This has been a, this is a Damien Pierce. We're a Damien Pierce site for sure. Brett Whitefield and I were both really, really high on Dane coming out. We both had them at RB3 and our rookie rankings behind Brees and Ken Walker.

So I can definitely buy the talent. I thought Singletary would mix in more as like a pass blocker, but if they're truly going to play Pierce all three downs, he's obviously, you know, at RB 24 and ADP on Underdog all summer. You know, he's been a really good value. Dobbins, man, Dobbins is obviously tricky for everybody. But did you guys know, like, he's only played three games? with 60% or more of the snaps.

Yeah. Three times in his entire career. But you can say with a new coaching staff, maybe that changes. So there is that sort of hypothetical upside. You mentioned you and Brett being so high on Damien Pierce. I was a big Damien Pierce guy last year when I put out, you know, my big article. I was saying he is the number one must draft player. You can't leave your draft without.

He was going round 12. And then he rose all the way up to like round six. Yeah. Just because the training camp buzz was so insane, which brings us back to the last running back, Celi mentioned, which is James Cook. Like he's getting the exact same buzz, but there's just not this corresponding ADP John, which has me excited. It's like, oh, he's running wide receiver routes, which is what he did in college.

He's getting deep targets, which is so rare for a running back. He's there every down back. Like I did not see that from his profile coming out, like the size concerns. He did get round two capital. I just didn't see that happening but like there was with all the Josh Allen concerns he's a vulture all that we did see

Devin Singletary at the tail end of Lash two years ago with the post season included he was averaging over 21 fantasy points per game he was an Uber Belkow so I do I do find myself liking James Cook in the upside there The one that I just jump in here

that I think compares a little bit to Damien Pierce this year would be Rashad White a crappy potential A potential crappy offense. That one under wraps, but yeah. And the thing is, we see the preseason and they're all trying to figure out who's next up behind Rashad White. It's almost like, who cares? Because, yeah, sure, do we expect it to be a bottom 10, probably even bottom five offense?

If everything goes haywire, the offensive line has question marks. But as seen with Damien Pierce, I mean, you can be in a crap situation and still produce top 10. It's rare. I actually did a study. You guys remember the late great Mag Taglier was the one that he put out an article a bunch of years ago pointing out like how rare it is for a running back to finish top 10 on a bottom 10 offense. And I look, I just pulled the last five years just say like let's go back and double check if this is still true. And it was the last five years there's been 10 running backs, an average of two per year on a bottom 10 offense that have finished as RB ones. And it's even worse when you drop down to a bottom five offense.

But Rashad White, we're not even like where he's going. He's still like down in the bottom 20s for like somebody that. you know, okay, if it goes wrong, a terrible offense, oh, these RB 17, like, it's still a value for somebody that's going to be touching the ball almost every down. Well, on the field for almost every down, not touching the ball. That would be insane. I think there's an important exemption there. You know, Christian McCaffrey strikes me as a major outlier. And that's that. If you're heavily involved in the passing game,

offensive line concerns don't matter. Game script does not matter. because then you're used as an extension of the running game. Targets in PPR leagues, you know this, Jake, worth 2.5 times as much as carries. And so that's your path to overcoming all that. And that's what we keep hearing with Rashad White. He's an incredible receiver. That's probably his Trump card. And so to me, I think he's maybe the most mispriced running back in all the drafts right now.

Yeah. Yeah, Rashad is looking really good. And especially, obviously, since we've seen all these free agent backs, you know, who scares you? Really? Like, who's left that scares you here? I don't even know if they're really process-wise. I don't even know if there was a back that even scared us. But just looking back at the last, you know, since 2000, Rashad White, one of 16 backs to catch 50 balls as a rookie as a rookie running back.

So, you know, like you said, Scott, he might only score six, maybe seven touchdowns on the ground. but, you know, if he's walking into 80, 90 targets, he's a very good value. I did want to talk about that pocket. And I guess we kind of covered it, like the 6, 7, 8, 9 pocket. Jake, Jake, you're in on Rashad White. I'm in Rashad White. Scott's gigantically in on Rashad White. Are there any other guys in that pocket, any players that you've moved up based on

preseason, based on just like, you know, going through your projections process? Is there any guys, any running backs from, let's say that you previously had in like rounds nine or ten that you've bumped up or conversely any guys that you've you've bumped down. So I have two, well, two, one has stayed higher than this rounds have been, and the other has bumped up a little bit. And that was coming from somebody that was already bumping the second one up, but I'll save him for a second. The first one is Antonio Gibson.

I don't understand what happened here. Like, I don't know if, look, and I'm not saying Antonio Gibson is going to be a top 20 running back, but it felt like the past two years, the entire industry was like, it's Antonio Gibson season. He's going to be unleashed. He's going to be unlocked in the passing game. he's going to be and all this kind of great stuff and then we get the arrival of one of the greatest offensive minds in all football and Antonio Gibson continue to look great and all of a sudden

people are just like nah whatever Antonio Gibson Barbie 32 you just call Eric the enemy one of the greatest offensive minds in football yes oh that's a spicy take Jake you don't believe it I mean I think Matt Nagy was like clearly an incompetent head coach and play caller and Andy Reid seems to think this guy's better than Eric the enemy so I don't know These coaches are not look really good with Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback is my That's fair. I, here's what I'll say. Like, okay, maybe we'll say, can I say top five?

Top ten? Offensive of coordinators only. And I like, here's why. And we'll sidebar on this real quick because of how he adapted the offense to what was going wrong with the wide receivers and changed it. Like we saw the offense was broken after the departure of Tyreek Hill and they kept trying to run the Tyrick Hill offense briefly. And then with the Juju Smith-Juster, they pulled everything in.

They started doing the let's get people open quicker. And once you adapted that offense, we saw Patrick. Everybody, you guys remember the conversation. Everybody was like, man, I took Patrick Mahomes as the first quarterback. What's wrong with Patrick Mahomes? He's broken. He's not the best quarterback anymore. And then he fixed it.

So again, maybe that was- I said, maybe it's Mahomes. Okay, like, I'll take that as part of it. So I'm not calling the best. But anyway, point being, like, we've been wanting more of Antonio Gibson. And I'm not taking anything away from Brian Robinson. I think Brian Robinson is a great talent as well. especially somebody who said that himself, I was not 100% even coming off the gunshot wound for a couple weeks.

Like, I still felt it while I was running. But even if it's a one-two punch, we've done the one-two punch with other backfields where Antonio Gibson's the pass catcher. And he's in the RB 30s. So I've been higher on Antonio Gibson this entire time. I feel like he should be hired in general. But the other was, I'm not a Ken Walker guy. I think Ken Walker, where he excels, should show up on the field. He doesn't.

He's one of the most inefficient. short yarders guys, but that's where he should be good. Like his breakaway plays are still great. That's not going to go away from his game, but he should be better in the short yards than he is. And they draft Charbonnet, who I think is a great pass catcher, somebody who also can run some tough short yards that people kind of overlook because of his past catching ability. And now Ken Walker's been banged up. Sharbonne is already back on the field. Charbonnet is making plays week in a week out. And how many times have we see Pete Carroll in the preseason see a new running back flash a couple times? And then we're screwed because it's a 50-50,

it or whatever. So it's not so much that I think Charbonnet is overtaking Ken Walker or is going to make Ken Walker irrelevant. But Ken Walker is RBE teens and Charbonnet all the way down almost at the 40th running back in like the 90 to 100 range. Like the gap should just be vastly smaller, in my opinion, for those two. To me, these are basketball guys and not really draft. I just question the upside.

I think Washington is a one, two, three punch. You called it a one-two punch. a one, two, three punch on a bad team without a quarterback. I don't know. I'm a Chris Rodriguez guy, so maybe I'm overstating his impact, but it really seemed like Bienemy in particular has a year one role in mind for him. And then Charbonnet, I think there's an injury to Ken Walker. I think he's a league winner, but otherwise I see them cannibalizing production too much

for you to ever really feel comfortable starting them. Graham, you're the running back guru. What did you see from Charbonnet on tape? Because I, to be honest, wasn't a huge fan. I like Kendrae Miller a little bit more. Yeah, Charbonnet strikes me as a guy who can do everything pretty well, but nothing extremely well. Like, you know, he's obviously a physical runner.

We saw that in the preseason. But there's just things that Ken Walker does on the field that Charbonnet can't do. And I definitely grant you that this will probably be some sort of gross committee. And like Ken Walker, you know, the Seahawks only ran eight plays. inside the 10-yard line and called it, you know, eight runs on those, on those plays. Like,

the opportunity for touchdowns just was not there relative to how good the office was. So I think, you know, there's going to be some natural, just more touchdown chances for these guys. But yeah, it definitely could be a split.

I just think Charbonnet is like a solid player whereas Ken Walker, like if we're shooting for upside, like, you know, Walker's got that home run ability. And Jake, I've been saying this. Like,

there's these, like, new breed of running backs. They're kind of like the true three. outcome running backs I've been calling them. You know, they either strike out, they walk or they hit home runs. And Ken Walker's, he's the true three outcome runner. Like, he's either going to strike out. I agree.

Yeah, he's going to strike out and hit his offensive lineman and go backwards. He's going to walk. He'll have like a three-yard run or he's going to hit a home run. And he's going to turn in a what a play that should have only gained three yards into 15. And like, I think that's the difference between he and Charbonnet is like, Shrebinay is always going to get with blocked. They have like a nice kind of consistent guy with that.

And then you compare it to Walker, who's actually kind of more of the whitening compared to Charbonnet's thunder. But yeah, for fantasy at the end of the day, we got to project opportunity. We got to project touches. We got to project Red Zone touches. And this should be a committee. And I'm not saying Charbonnet in the fifth. I mean, he's going to, you said the ninth round, I'm going to take a flyer on it. You know what I think he's Cole Beasley of running backs.

Like he's just going to chip in and produce every single week. And at the end of the year, he's going to finish like R.B. 36. Oh, my God. He needs to grow the hair out and everything. Oh, my goodness. The Cole Beasley running backs. Yeah, Jake, that's like, I think, I think this is kind of just like a more broader point about this year. And this is, you know, we've been talking 25 minutes basically all about running backs.

You know, this year is just wide open at running back. You know, it just feels like after round four, like after, you know, that pocket of like remandre and Brees and Najigo, it's just like wide, wide open. And I guess structurally speaking, like, what, do you have any advice for listeners? Like, you know, this is kind of a different year. Like, what are you doing in your drafts? What, you know, and are you allowing this kind of like different R.B market to change how you draft? Yeah, I think that this is the what we talk about fancy all too often. It's cliche, but Zieg when everybody else is zagging.

The wide receivers have become almost overinflated at this point, like because it's like, oh, they're more predictable, the less likely to get hurt. And we've seen the injury reports from like Dr. even, you know, all these sites, but there's a 0.8 difference in the injury rate of top 12 running backs versus top wide receivers. And Scott smiling because he knows the one that I referenced and I saw that. And that's why I'm talking about it. And like, but all down the list is it's not even this far as you're going, which I'm going to, I'm going to answer your question. But when we see the RB12, who is still an RB1 sitting there in almost round four, we've gone too far, people. Like we've took, we've taken the wire receiver predictability. If it's not, I'm not saying,

it's not there and the reliability. It is there. But we've gone too far with it. Now we need to start zinging back and getting back to running back. So I'm not saying you have to go running back, running back to start the first two rounds. I would never do that if possible, but it has happened. But you're talking about, like you said, fourth, fifth, sixth round. We're still talking about Miles Sanders, whether you're not your fan of him, the work is going to be there. Cam Acres, whether or not you're fan of him, the work is going to be there. Granted injuries, passing games, but like you can look at all the other names in this list. We brought up Damien Pierce, who's in the fourth round. You're talking about Rashad White, who we already brought up. Isaiah Pacheco's back at

practice. If he's going to be healthy, the lead option of the chiefs, even if he's not involved in the passing game. Isaiah Pacheco's down in the seventh round almost. So it's not so much the fact of like, hey, you know, you need to zig and start taking these running backs earlier. It's just now the opening is there. If you want to still go alpha, whatever you want to call it, Y receiver, I think it's even more available for that roster construction because you could hit Y receiver your first two rounds. And if you really don't want, what have you got, you know, no, this is the term. It's the R.B. Dead Zone, which is honestly, it's a moving target. Like, RB Dead Zone means nothing. It's going to be different in every single draft. But it's generally been those outside the top 20

running backs kind of in that range. But the RB Dead Zone that we've created as an industry, because of that, now includes guys with full-time roles. So you can actually dip in and get a solid RB 1 and 2 if you still want to go wire receivers in the first two and three rounds. So I like that what it's opened up for us as smart drafters. As Scott said at the very beginning at the show, you echoed it too. It's like you've got to be able to adapt to your drafts. Well, the drafts nowadays in 2023 means adapting and finding a rock solid RB2 where you used to have to be drafting them in the third or fourth round.

I think something unique about this season is like the most important position in fantasy is also one of the most difficult. It's like, do you spend an early round pick on Daniel Carlson or Justin Tucker or do you grab the value in Graham and No. Jake, what are your thoughts? Oh, God, I hate that question. The band kickers shirt, but the president kickers, I have t-shirts. If you're going to go to rotoware, rotoware is co-sponsored this and has them

so I didn't have to have the supply behind me. But yes, band kickers for life. Just add another flex. Please do so. Also, so your waiver wire isn't flush with options to step right in. But good God, don't ever ask me a question like that, man. I'm just saying Brandon McManus is looking good, man. I think you got to bump a bunch of projections.

I love when people jump into my columns or like rankings and projections, like, you really won't rank kickers. I'm like, no, this isn't a joke. It's not like some sitting here being like, no, I'm not going to waste my good time on meaningless junk. Sorry. Can you make a quick plea to like commissioners who are listening to urge them to, abandon the kicker position most volatile least predictive position right so there's two there's the first and foremost thing that i'll say and if there's a real life kicker out there listening there but i'm sorry but their job is dependent on the offense failing that's first and foremost

if your job is dependent on the offense not doing their job your job sucks i'm sorry but the second part about it is i've actually done an article on the app like why kickers suck everybody's like oh they're predictable you know at dFS when it was around i did it on fan duel i advantage when it was back on fan duel took advantage of all the people spending up for the top price kicker and i took my savings because it is somewhat you know predictable from that standpoint if you're going to do the dfs route but from the real life standpoint is the best offenses often don't even produce the best kickers because they're scoring touchdowns instead of setting up field goals so the the variance i'd rather just add another flex spot and it all started for everybody

wants to know it started the week that rob baronis kicked 18 billion field goals and I lost the matchup, watching him score more than every quarterback in existence that week. There's your origin story. You're Jake Sealy, band kickers origin story. He's still so tilted from those days.

Want to know how I got these scars? Yeah, so I'm with you. I'm with you, man. I think we, like, experts like us have a massive edge in fantasy. Anyone who reads her stuff does as well. And I like PPR because it makes it more predictable. thus furthering my edge.

And so getting rid of kickers would help that. I knew you would like that question. That was one of the questions I added. I was scrolling through your Twitter, trying to come up with some more questions. I saw some Justin Ross love. You know, I love me, some of that. And then I saw a graphic based on one of your most recent articles,

bold predictions. And like those are tough articles because you really need, like that's the thesis. Like these are bold. that's probably not going to happen, but I can see it happening. And I kind of agree with every single. And these all seem fairly realistic to me. I'm going to read them down one by one.

And again, I pretty much agree with every single one of these. Anthony Richardson sets the rookie QB rushing record. Easy. I think he does it. Nick Chubb scores 20 touchdowns. I could really see that. Darren D. Thrones Travis Kelsey is the top tightout. I thought I was highest on Darren Waller in the industry.

But that is a spicy take. I don't know, I can be that bold. Jahan Dotson is a top 10 wide receiver. I can see him being the real wide receiver one in this offense. And then Cooper Cup sets the all-time single season reception and receiving yards marks. Love that, Jake. Full agreement. Yeah. The Jahan Dotson one for everybody that wants to fall out of their chair when they go to that article is the comp.

There was the Tire Locket Comp coming out of college, Terry McLaurin, all down the list of Sean Jackson. And I said, well, let's take it one step further. Let's get nuts. Let's get crazy. Antonio Brown. And look, no, he is not. Like, everybody just like, forget this podcast. Screw you guys.

I don't know why you have this idiot on your show. But I am not calling them Antonio Brown. Where I went deeper, as you saw in the article about the Antonio Brown part, is that I compared Sam Howell to Ben Ralthusberger coming out of college. Actually, when they were doing the draft that year, I made a joke. I said, just draft the same guy you just had and get Sam Howell, who is like Ben Rolfusberger stylistically. Does he ever throw 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns?

Like, you know, probably not. Like, this is a high expectation for any quarterback. But the style comparison is why I said, if you look at Johan Dotson and his style and what he brings and being able to separate, but also bring the big plays while being able to separate. And what a quarterback like Rothusberger and who is Sam Howell can turn to as his number one, Terry McLaren is still going to be good. But Terry McLaren is going to turn into the Ju-Ju-Schuster or the other options outside of Antonio Brown those years. Antonio Brown's role is Jahan Dotson's role.

And if you look at last year, as the third option to start the season with junk at quarterback, he was number one in end zone targets and end zone receptions, returned into touchdowns, vastly kicking to the curb, Terry McLaren with eight and six. Terry McLaren had seven and two, two. So I say that even with that mess last year, the number one option, top ten potential. If you asked me out of my six, which I'd put my money on if I had to bet one, it would be the Dotson pick. Wow, that was probably my least favorite, but I can make a compelling case as well. You know, poor quarterback play last year. He dealt with a lingering hamstring injury. Hamstring injuries tend to linger that happen weeks four through 12.

But when he was healthy enough to play on just 66% of the team snaps, he averaged 14 fantasy points per game that was ahead of Michael Pittman, ahead of D.K. Metcalfe, Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, Chris Olive, Debo Samuel, guys going really early from week 13. He ranked 10th in yards per route run ahead of Terry McLaurin. It wouldn't shock me if this was, if Dotson was the leading receiver for the team this year. My first take of the off season is I'm going to have 100% Johan Dotson and bestball. And didn't get there.

Unfortunately, everybody else is kind of feeling the same way you are, Jake. It's like, you know, Terry McLaren's awesome. You know, we finally got him a decent quarterback, but so is John Dotson. And like, you know, we've been high on Dotson's talent since he came out of college. And I think there's a real chance this is like a 1A. one B type of situation. Real quick, got to tell you guys about our friend Edwin Porris' new injury prone draft guide and playbook.

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25 to take 25% off. Our friend, When Porras is injury prone draft guide. Guys, seriously, you will probably be buying this every single year. It's the nuts. Jake, before we get you out of here, I want to talk about two extremely tricky backfields that Scott and I have been struggling to project all offseason. We've been going back and forth on Miami, and we've been going back and forth on Chicago.

Now, we did get a little bit of news. Devon A-Chane hurt a shoulder in the game over this past weekend. He's week-to-week. He might be ready for week one. but at the very least, more mispractice time for him is no good. So with all that being said, where's your vibe on Miami in Chicago? So Miami, you guys are going to make me sing on your show? I did this on my podcast last year, and I continued into this season.

It's don't go chasing dolphins running backs. I'm not doing it. I'm not playing this game with the dolphins running backs, because even if you get it right, you still might not get it right. And that being said, is like if it is A-Chane, which we hope for projecting ability and his ability in the passing game, like that, you still might not get the game right. He still might not be the leading score that week. And then we are going to play this chasing your tail game of like, oh, Mosterts to lead. Mostard's been the lead a couple weeks in a row.

We did this last year. And then we come out the very next game. Oh, it's not mustard anymore. Now it's Jeff Wilson. Or is somebody else? Or is Savon Ahmed? Because that's what they felt like this week. Oh, why? Oh, what tree did Mike McDaniel come from? Like, we're really surprised by this. So I'm not doing the dolphins. But if I will, I'll just take the cheapest one. I'll take the flyer on the cheapest one because if I'm wrong no okay the Chicago backfield this is what I hinted towards earlier in the show this one I do have a strong stance on and I will argue this one and maybe I'm going down the Kamakers road from last year and this is the new one but I don't get the hate of wanting Khalil Herbert look even if he's not involved in the passing game that

much okay fine let's only talk about the games where he ran the ball 10 plus times 50 plus yards in every single one of those 5.1 yards per carry we've seen Cleo Herbert with the first team. We've seen them trying to get them some passing options in the preseason. Again, maybe that doesn't even carry over. And Rashon Johnson, sure,

better pass blocker, better pass catcher, whatever it want to be. But if you want to talk about pass blocking grades, Cleo Herbert, better last year than Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, oh, a bunch of dudes

where it doesn't matter that they were middle of the road pass blocking. And I'm not saying Cleo Herbert's a top 10 running back. I'm just saying the hate for him being basically a dead zone beyond. He's what, round eight still?

Round seven starting to creep up now that people are coming around on him. I do have a strong opinion that is Killeh Herbert with Rashaun Johnson. Granted, he's been fourth so far through the preseason. We know that's not true. But I think he's going to be a sprinkle and not a significant threat to Killeh Herbert. I think Kleeal Herbert would have to play poorly a couple weeks in a row before Johnson takes over. I think this is Kleele Herbert's backfield, 100%. That's the way I've been leaning.

inching towards two. I had to project it as like Herbert is the clear 1A all off season. Like if there's a guy in this backfield that they're going to give the keys to and just like be the 1A week one, it'll be him. And then as we've gone through this process and we've gone through the preseason, it's like yesterday, you know, Deonté Foreman or Saturday, Deonté Foreman was, you know, playing with the second team offense. Rochon Johnson, you know, rookies have to earn it, yada, yada, yada, coach loves to do that. But Rochon's out there too. And they were resting Khalil Herbert. And then when they did play Justin Fields, he was on the field for all of the snaps. And I get it. It's one, it was two drives. They were both extremely weird. You know, they both have, you know, more had the long touchdown than Herbert did too. But then, you know,

it's just, it's not just a small sample of usage in preseason. It was last year's data. I mean, no running back was better after contact than Klua Herbert. No, no running back was better on zone runs than Kulow Herbert. And like, that's all the Bears run. So I think everything is kind of set up right now for Herbert to get, get out of the gates really quick. And I guess that would be my one concern. And I have more in an article coming out this week. about this backfield and why I'm targeting cluel herbert for all the same reasons you are but my one concern is rochon johnson like there's one guy in this backfield that can play on passing downs and kind of give the bears that versatility of like hey we don't know if it's run or pass it's him

i don't know if the chicago bears care about that this year like they're going to be passing running so so much i don't think they care too much about that and care too much about their tells or anything uh that would be my one concern but cleal is definitely definitely somebody who should be coming up in your rankings don't disagree at all but i mean you miss on an eighth round running back like we do that every yeah you're gonna yeah you're gonna do that every year and those eighth round receivers man right now it's like courtland sutton and and and elijah like i love elijah more but like there's definitely downside with elizier more like he had last year happened you know oh gosh he's jerry i love elizher more my my downside is like is he only going to be

out there for three wide that's it's just a snap that is yeah that's a real concern yeah that is that's my only concern is if if it's dpj and cooper then that's probably not great but we're going to Regardless, yeah, I like Elijah more, but that's the thing is like, and I have an article, like I said, coming out later this week talking about just this. And it's those running backs and that eighth to ninth round pocket. And Kalil Herbert is one of my own of mine. So even pulling another one to Scott's argument earlier in the show, which was echoing what of my point was about drafting for upside, the upside of Juju Smith-Schuster at the same spot or Kalil Herbert, or Kahlil Herbert, like, why would you take Juju Smith-Schuster here? Just take Cleal Herbert. Right.

Yeah, this isn't best ball. This isn't best ball. It's a season-long league. Juju's upside is like, okay, he finishes his wide receiver 30. Herbert's upside is he's a top 15 running back. Like that is absolutely in his range. Jake, this was awesome. You're awesome like always.

We appreciate you coming on. Appreciate you spelling some wisdom. Really, kind of just breaking down really the whole second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth years of running backs with Scott and I today. Anything you want to plug? Anything you got coming up? Anything you're excited about? Yeah.

I know you want to talk about your Mets, so we can do that if you want. Thank you so much for the, hey, I was thrilled what they did at the deadline, the most expensive prospect purchasing in the history of baseball. True. I'm excited for. Yeah, I'm excited for next year and beyond. It's been miserable. But at least, hey, I can completely tune out baseball for the past month to get straight into football. That was nice.

That's what it is being a Met fan. I'm perpetually excited for next season. Yeah, 100%. And then by the All-Star break, you're like, well, it's football time, as it always should be. But, yes, Scott actually teed up the question before, which led into it. I'm going to do my biggest ADP versus projections differences, but versus projections to kind of go into what we were talking about today. Like, it's not why are the projections so different than the ADP?

There's more context to it behind there. But also, if people haven't been listening now, new serious XM show 9 to 11 a.m. So start off your weekend, as Nando would say, start off your weekend, wakey, wiki, wiki with eggs and jakey, as Nando would say, I hate Nando Daphino for that one. That's great. That's very nice. Well, wake up with Jake on Saturdays on Cirrus XM.

Jake, you were fantastic. Make sure you follow Jake on Twitter at Allend Kid. For Scott, I'm Graham. Thanks for listening, guys.