Fantasy Football Daily - The FIRST College Fantasy Football Underdog Best Ball Best Strategies!

Episode Date: July 16, 2024

College fantasy football Best Ball is HERE. The CFB All-Access team is here to review the best and first wave of CFB's best ball strategy on the eve of Underdog Fantasy releasing CFF Best Ball for the first time ever. We will dive into our general thoughts, specific strategies, and edges to exploit. Join us each week and take your game to the next level with CFF All-Access. Make sure to follow us for more valuable college fantasy football content! College Fantasy Football Full Playlist - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-kupTuz42SfcO1TY2hirR-4l0-6E2SSb Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Where to find us: https://twitter.com/CFFguys https://twitter.com/CFFroton https://twitter.com/CFFChamps http://twitter.com/MBainbridgeCFF FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts  @UnderdogFantasy  @TheFantasyFootballers  @NFLFantasyFootball  @Flockfantasy  @deadstockdynasty3481  @SpikeWeek  @ShipChasing  @NFL  @fantasypros  @legendaryupside  @lateroundff   #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #bestball #dynastyfantasyfootball #dfs #nflbetting #FantasyFootballAdvice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When you fly in Emirates business class and you're picked up by your private, luxury, chauffeur-driven car, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly, Emirates, fly better. What? You're checking your head. You're welcome. Hello, this is the CFF All Access podcast, and that's right. It is the week we have all been waiting for. In the case of the video game, it's been 11 years.

And the case of Underdog, it's been actually much longer, if you think about it. It's been since the existence of college football, we have been waiting for an opportunity like this for a major site to take up the CFF banner and to hopefully push a lot more of the casual users into the college fantasy football realm where myself and my co-host here, Mike Bainbridge, have been swimming for quite a long time, haven't we, Michael? Indeed. Yeah, it was just another one of our favorite topics, player props, and not actual best balls here. But yeah, very excited and on the horizon. Yeah, absolutely. I'm hired it. Very, very soon. It has been hopefully tomorrow, you know, depending on how things all lay out. But we know it will be sometime this week as will be the release of the video game. So in preparation for the onslaught of college football and college fans,

football material you will be inundated with over the next five days. We thought we would go through the power for. And the reason why is because Underdog is going to be a power for only platform for the CFF best balls that they're rolling out. So rather than talk about the G5, you know, too much and get into that player pool, luckily, we happen to be running concurrent P4 and G5 drafts. Last week we talked about the G5. We just happened to have the P4 rolling. That's the draft board you see there on the side. And we figured we would have a little bit of a dual sort of a show.

We'll get into position by position what the P4 looks like with the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end rooms. And then we'll pivot over to the current P4 draft we're doing, which has 16 teams. So it will be a bigger pool than I think we'll be dealing with underdog drafts. it will be a bigger pool, which actually kind of helps in terms of depth and kind of give you a primer to look at for where these guys are going in this expert format. So, Michael, let's get right to quarterbacks. Do you know, first off, when we're talking about quarterbacks, most important thing to identify right out of the gate, is this four point passing touchdowns or is this six point passing touchdowns? Do we know yet what underdog intends to do? Don't know that. Always

we kind of can deduct from what we've obviously seen on the website so far. ADP went up to, what, 216 players, so that should be 18 round drafts, I believe. And the other part that I think people know or circulating or what have you is that there will not be a super flex in the lineups. obviously not cemented in stone at this point because nothing's released, but that's kind of what we're looking at or what we know to date. So we're talking one QB, no superflex, or we're talking two pubis? I don't know that part. I don't think it does not sound like it's going to be super flex.

Interesting. I wonder if they will keep with a standard CFF 2QB format that we have grown so accustomed to, or if maybe they're going to look at it in the same way they do as, the regular best ball mania with the NFL. Do you know if that's 18 players on that roster for that best ball team? No, couldn't tell you. I wonder if they're going to, I remember at one point this offseason, you said you were going to stop playing best balls if they did four point passing touchdowns.

So what I'm curious, what if Underdog is four point passing touchdowns, Eric? Well, Michael, let's face it, the circumstances with Underdog being a four point passing touchdown of bestball would override my proclivities towards the six point passing touchdowns. I am willing to acquiesce if it is for the greater good of the game. And with that in mind, I mean, what do you think? Difference wise, we might as well kind of dive into that, first and foremost, since we literally have no idea if it's four point or six point passing touchdowns. I feel like with the passing touchdown situation, get into a little bit of what you

think about the differences between the six point and the four point passing touchdown formats and what you look at differently what are you shopping for in four points what are you shopping for and six well i think it's pretty obvious right i'll just go high level right at four point we're looking for the dual dual threat quarterbacks right that's kind of what we're going to prioritize and i personally think that those guys and this is just part of playing college fancy football those guys are going to come off the board sooner, right? So you're probably going to have to draft them a little bit higher, in my opinion. And when we go over the P4 drafts that we're currently participating in, I think with six point, you're able to wait a little bit longer because some of

these pocket passers typically don't get drafted early, but they're going to be more favorable in the six point passing touchdown format. So we're, and we'll go over the draft. And some of my favorite teams actually are the ones that kind of waited until the fifth, sixth round in those high volume passing attacks. We're able to get quarterbacks that definitely see an increase in value because of six point passing touch. Yeah, and you make a good point because I would like to kind of get into that. The rule of 35. Now, I put out my wide receiver column last week, and if anybody had gotten a look at that and seen it, here it is, on the page, that kind of gets into the potency of passing attacks.

And when it comes to wide receivers and when it comes to quarterbacks, this does apply the rule of 35. When that simply is, is you want to attack rosters that are throwing the ball 35 times a game, 35 pass attempts, and are scoring 35 points per game. So you want to be as close to those two metrics as you can for each side of that passing attack. And obviously, it was in the wide receiver column, but this certainly translates over to quarterbacks. And if you look at this, you know, you're reading it on the screen. Here are, you know, 2022 and 2023 in terms of the 35, 35 teams, right? Eight programs hit that in 2022.

Just six hit that metric in 2023. And what you notice is there are three constants. And that is simply Memphis, USC, and Washington. And with Washington, that is Kalin DeBoer, essentially his system, who is now at Alabama. So we can kind of, you know, project that out in that front. And when you're shopping for these teams, obviously this is last year, right? But in terms of projecting game flow, which is a lot of what we do with the college football player props, that translates down to what we're trying to do here on the college fantasy front,

especially best balls, because you're going to have just a better chance at scoring the the more potent the offense is going to be, and the more slanted towards a passing script that each of these teams is. So in terms of that, you know, you look at these teams over the last two years that have had that sort of a tendency, those are the ones you want to sort of attack. So we will be taking a break right now, and then we'll get back on and talk about more of the positions. All right, Michael. So in terms of some teams potentially that we're looking at. at for the potency, aerially. What are some teams that you're looking at that you've been targeting in this offseason that are from the power four level that you think could have some value for potential

best ball drafters out there? Yeah, it's funny. I was just kind of looking at the teams that generally, and I'm looking over the last three years specifically, that have been those high volume passing attacks. And you look at teams like Washington State up near the top, actually number one in the country over last three years. and pass attempts per game. Oklahoma State, Washington, TCU.

You know, it's kind of noticeable with those schools this year at least. You got a quarterback battle at Washington State. You got Allen's Olman at Oklahoma State. Washington, Will Rogers, new system, you know, turning over the entire offense. TCU, first year starter and likely Josh Hoover. So we're not necessarily tart. these teams early on, which normally we would because of the high potency of their passing volume. But I think that also alludes to the fact that you can get some of these guys later

beyond round 15. And particularly in this draft with P4, like Josh Hoover going after, you know, later on. Alan Bowman is all of a sudden becomes a sleeper because of high volume passing attack plus the six point passing touchdown. So I think that really changes the dynamic with the scoring settings. Yeah, I mean, look at Oklahoma State right here, you know, ranked eighth in the country last year with 41 attempts per game. And that's not something you really would think about because you think Oklahoma State last year.

You're thinking Ollie Gordon, but that's where it comes down with the 18 passing touchdown to 16 interceptions. 20 interceptions led the country, and that was Davis Pickle Brin at Georgia. just southern. He was right there with 16 in terms of Oklahoma State. Only the 18 passing touchdowns. You see here from some of these passing attacks that we have just on the screen. I mean, you're looking at Sam Houston State. You're looking at Baylor and then Arizona State with a putrid eight. But for those teams that are throwing, you know, 36, 35 or more passes, most of them are in the 20s for the passing touchdowns. And that's really what you want to be,

because that's what you can control. You know, a lot of times it's hard to control what happens on the ground and it makes quarterbacks more susceptible to injury. You get, you know, I think it's fair to say that in the college level, you get more running from the quarterbacks and you do at the NFL level. You don't want to put them in harm's weight quite the same way, whereas it's, you know, you get what you can at college. In terms of, you know, quarterbacks for this,

We will try to put a bow on this particular position here. But how much do you put a premium on the traditional pocket passers and six-point passing touchdown as opposed to the rushing QBs? Is there a real difference between how you look at the way that these two skill sets present themselves, depending on the scoring system? I think it depends on how good. I mean, I think it depends on how good. of a passer that dual threat is, right?

Could you get, like, just looking back a couple of years and somebody that you hated on routinely, Max Duggan, right, at TCU, right? Yes, he was a top 10 fantasy quarterback that passed here, but he could not throw the ball into the first few years that he was a starter. You kind of look at guys like Ashen Daniels this year. We don't know that he's a good quarterback.

Yes, he's going to run the football a ton based upon the system that he's in at Stanford under the head coach there, Troy Taylor. But there's a chance that he either doesn't give us much from a passing perspective or he gets replaced entirely. So, yeah, I'm going to prioritize the true dual threats versus maybe a quarterback that can run, but hasn't really shown that he can throw either. Yeah, and you mentioned with African Daniels, you know, kind of a, and up in the air situation before.

It now has a live of Brown coming in, who is a high four-star quarterback. Somebody I got to watch the Elite 11, and I actually got to talk to him pretty extensively, and I like him a lot in terms of a kid. He's got a good head on his shoulders and a great arm on his shoulder as well. So that certainly gives me a little bit of pause. I believe Ashton Daniels was a summer around,

I think he was at the 2,000 and a half mark for props for his opening. I believe so, yes. Yeah. And it really does bake that in, because you would think with Troy Taylor's offense through 12 games, having thrown 2796 yards, that would put him in the over department. But we don't know.

Yeah, but you don't have a mind. Yeah, 35 a game they're throwing, but does he keep it? You know, and obviously injuries have to be a factor there too. That being said, moving on to running back now. Well, not as much variance when it comes to the quarterback position. There is one standard scoring format. I assume we'll have PPR. Do you think they could possibly go with half PPR here in this format?

Because I know that they do in some of their best balls with pro football. I would think half point PPR. Okay, so there we go. Because that's what Underdog does for props. They do half. I believe prize picks does full. Is that right? Or are they both half?

Do you know? I don't know. Man, you got draft kings and Pam do in different scoring settings. Everybody does everything. Definitely right. I'm thinking, like, you would think it would be linear in uniform between the two. Like, all right, well, they do one, you do the other. Fair enough.

When it comes to the running backs, half point per reception, big deal, big deal in this format. Okay? And the reason why we're talking about this is a lot of teams, you have a significant degree of variance between schemes. And you get a team like Rutgers, you get a team like Liberty. who does not throw to their running vets. Cooley and Monongai both had sub-10 receptions last year. There were single digits. You're getting nothing out of them.

So in those PPR formats, they certainly take a hit. And even in PPR, we're seeing in our current bestfalls in the expert leagues, Montan guy is still going at a very, very high spot. He's still going. I believe he's most of the time, third, fourth round, Michael, especially in the most recent ones. Yep, absolutely. Chris K has been pushing that. Chris K, the bulwark of Kyle Monang guy,

and I got no problem with that since I do have multiple dynasty shares and just took him in the eighth round of the dynasty nerds C2C. That being said, let's take a look at what the running back position looks like here. And last year, 41 running backs ran for 1,000 yards. Now, the delineation is 24 of those were in the P5, 17 in the G5. That's actually a little bit of a departure from previous. is years where the G5 would be pretty close in terms of the G5. Do you look at 2019 here, right?

There were 51. 29 of those rushers came in the G5, all right? 22 in the P5. Then kind of the transfer portal area came around. And you saw that start to pivot. 30 in the P5, 20 in the G5 last year. 2020, right? Dead nuts in 2020.

to 20 in the P5 had 1,000, 20 in the G5. And frankly, that carried on down to the 10 and 10 with a thousand yards and 10 touchdowns, 15 and 13. So we started getting pretty close. And then, you know, another important metric running backs with 200 plus carries, right? And that's important because, as you'll see with this column I have coming out at the end of the week, when it comes to running backs, it's extremely difficult to hit the 10, the 1,010 mark, which is the baseline for what we're getting for, you know, high-end running back production. You're not getting that unless you're hitting 200 carries. So the fact that, you know, that was happening with the G5 getting more big factor.

This year, as discussed a little bit, more slanted towards the P5. But once you get to the 1,010 at the high end, still pretty close. 15 and 13. And then it becomes even more important with the G5 and all the running backs as a separation point, 41,000-yard running backs. How many of these guys catch passes, right? Very, very important metric. But without the full point for reception does factor in.

Running back to 30 receptions last year, there was 20, 12 of them in the P5, 8 in the G5, but 25 plus receptions. you have 41, double that amount, just from that five reception jump. So it shows that's kind of like the 20 to 30 range is where you need to be in in these PPR formats. And again, 23 of those are coming from the P5. That being said, just six running backs last year had 1,000 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards. Three of them return, and they're all top 10 running backs. Ashton J. Giddens, Ollie Gordon, the best of the best.

Michael, talk to us about running backs for best ball and some of the things that you look at. I was going to just kind of mention I did a little bit of research in conjunction with kind of what you have here. And 60% of the top 50 high scoring fantasy running backs from last year, 60% of those came from the P4 conferences. So that seems to be in line with the stat you had up with the, if you scroll down a little bit with the P5 and the, yeah, there you go, with the 25 plus receptions and everything. So it seems to be kind of in line those statistics.

So I didn't get a chance to go year over year to see the kind of percentage. You know, we had 60% last year come from the P5, but I would imagine it's relatively similar year over year in terms of, like, the highest scoring running backs that come from the P4 conferences versus the G5. And those percentages actually are very similar between the position. So you have like 60% of the top 50 running backs last year coming from the P4 is 58% amongst quarterbacks, and then it dropped to 55%, I believe, among wide receivers. So there's a relatively healthy, or a similar-ish split in between P4 and G5.

And I would imagine that translates from year to year. Not a high discrepancy, I guess, is my overall point, right? Yeah, no, great stuff and very relevant. When it comes to production, you know, the way that these running back, have scored in a way that they've been used has actually changed pretty significantly. If you look at this, the downward trend in producing ion fantasy rushers, you see here, a 32% reduction in a thousand yard backs from 2018 to 2023. I mean, that is, you know, a third being locked off there.

And if you look at that on the targets front, it's interesting. You know, they didn't, only 16 running backs with 30 receptions in 2018. And then it's been 20 or more. actually dipped down in 23, which is a little bit of a surprise. But, you know, regardless, that's all still there. And that kind of gets into the 50-point principle, which deals with for PPR running backs, you have to be getting 50 points out of you, out of a starting running back throughout that season, right? And if you are, chances are you're going to be having, on a basketball format,

you're going to have success. So you're going to have a high floor on a weekly basis. Since those points, I mean, if you break off, call it 60 points, which seems to be kind of a baseline here, that's five points a week over the course of 12 weeks, you know? That's a touchdown extra that guys like Monom Guy, that's a point in coolie. They're simply not getting.

So if you look at some sleepers, like I said, I have this column coming up, but you guys get a special preview, of course, because you're watching. Here are some guys that fit some of those profiles for the PPRs. And you can see guy like Dylan Edwards. You know, Trashon Ward two years ago was a factor in that room behind Giddens. God hurt.

It was not able to be a factor. Now he comes in, transfers over after being a legitimate weapon out of the backfield for Colorado. You'll get Hemby, Scatabo, especially a guy I love Jonah Coleman going to a tougher conference in the Big Ten. Quality Connolly, Montreal Johnson is a guy who's probably like a 13th, 14th round running back right now. spite the factor over ETN left. He's got a really nice profile, caught 30 passes last year, one of, you know, a dozen guys to do that. The Dylan Samson, you know, Tennessee used the running back a little more than you think.

It's just they had three guys rotating through with Jalen Wright out. I think you could certainly see him bus, if he will bust the 50 point mark. And then the guys like Kobe Pace way, way, way down the board. And, you know, Devin Mockaby with Reggie Love in there, potential that works out. But anybody that you like out of this group that you think could be relevant in the P4 best ball. I just want to give away some sleepers, I guess, from this group.

I love that you listed Kobe Pace. Now, we obviously know the last few years that Virginia has been completely inept running the football, but the running backs coach came out in the spring practice and said that, hey, Kobe, we're getting Kobe Pace ready for a workhorse role, okay? and you obviously love to hear that from a, you know, fantasy perspective. And, you know, are we expecting dramatic increase from the Virginia run game? No, but volume is king. And obviously, the statistic shows that Kobe Pace is, you know, adequate in the passing game.

Jack Caz cross, I sort of my projections. He is my number 10 running back in terms of most projected receptions this season. I think you can get him in around 30 of best balls. Jordan Simmons at Akron, former Michigan State transfer, if he wins that RB1 job at Akron, a very productive system under Joe Moorhead, typically. It's kind of similar to Kobe Pace, not the last few years, but, you know, maybe there's hope there. So, yeah, some of the, there's a lot of late round guys that are going to be heavily utilized in the passing game, which if you're in full point PPR format, why not take a stab?

you know, round 25 and beyond. Yeah, yeah, good call. And with that, we reached a 25-minute mark. We're going to take another quick break before we go over to wide receivers. All right, Michael, it is time. Wide receivers, oh, the bugaboo, the tough analysis. Everybody knows when it's time to draft wide receivers, especially with these best ball formats.

We all get a little nervous because, as you know. Yeah, we all get real nervous. Because with this, with our standard best balls that we do, it's obviously most of them are both. But even in the P5, even the G5, we're doing 30 rounds because you have to account for the two buys for each team. And once you get in six, seven, eight, nine those weeks, or get a boat in terms of

all the different buys you're going to have to line up. So if there's anything before we get any further that you all have to be aware, we have 18 spots. You have to be all over the schedule matrix. Be extremely aware of the biweeks, or especially your quarterbacks. If we got two, your quarterback buy weeks, be aware, okay? Even if so, you're going to have what, probably three quarterbacks. You have to roster out of the 18, even if you're doing one. then you're going to go, what, 552?

Is that pretty much what it would be? 552? It would be 553. Wait, what are you referenced? What do you reference? I'm trying to get the numbers. Wait, it would be 3-663. It would be three QBs, six running backs, six wide receivers,

three tightens. Yeah. That sounds about right, right? If you're going, because, man, if you're going to two QBs, it's over. You can't have 18 roster spot. with two QBs. It doesn't work up. You don't have enough guys to cover the boss. So you're going to have to be one all over your QBs. You're going to have three of them. Make sure they line up so you get as many pieces of the pie. You're not leaving any openings because you're dead.

If you're an opening, it's gone. Forget about winning bestball mania or whatever this will look like. But that being said, moving on to wide receivers. in terms of the wide-ups, look at the difference in 22, 2022, and the 2023 when it comes to receivers getting 100 targets, right? 53 of them in 2022. 51 in 2021. 58 in 2019. Last year, 42. Noticable drop-off that we're talking about here, 58 to 53 to 42.

And why do you think that is? Why do I think that is? I think it's just because with the air raid offense, you have more guys on the field that are wide receivers. I just think there's more options to distribute the ball to. So if you run three and four wide receiver sets, every team runs a three wide receiver set. A lot of them run the four.

And if you're doing that, it's just so much distribution. So, I mean, that's kind of what I look at. And then the thing is, I think that's kind of borne out a little bit. it because look at the difference in targets and regular season, right? We're going regular season targets. That went down to 41 because you have to delineate between the two. We are a regular season thing. It goes down 41 and 22.

It goes down 33 here, which is wide, right? But that didn't change much. 63 receivers with 90 plus targets here, 61 receivers with 90 plus targets in 20, 23. And those are regular season targets, as we're talking about. So while the distribution of 90 targets, it's almost you're getting more number two receivers that are eating and number threes than you are with the classic ones is what it kind of looks like to me in the distribution chart. Because, you know, 33, 100 targets. That's a classic one, 100 plus. It's broken up 16p5, 17G5.

but with only 33 of them that's down eight from just a year ago. So the high-end targets are getting distributed amongst the proletariat. You know, the bourgeoisie has been spread out amongst the commoners. And it's kind of bringing the floor up, I think, for the high-potency rule of 35 offenses we talked about a little bit more. Please expand on that, of course, Michael. I think, yeah, why don't? wide receiver twos and high volume passing offenses, I think, are becoming more, not prevalent. That's not the word I'm looking for, but it's a position that you want to target.

I'm thinking in terms of Antoine Wells, right, Ole Miss, very high on that offense. And especially if these targets are going to be, as your kind of stats are alluding to, they're going to be spread out a little bit more amongst the top three positions. Elijah Badger also comes to mind who, you know, I kind of question. you on drafting him so highly in some of our recent drafts. But, you know, I mean, again, these stats kind of allude to that, like, you, there is reason why, and especially high-volume passing offenses, passing offenses that are going to project really well, that you really want to, you know, kind of, not, I guess, prioritize, yeah, in the certain rounds,

these wide receiver twos and potentially even wide receiver threes. and I know you are a big proponent. You came up with it, the jumbo wide receiver three theories. It's the power three. That's gimmick infringement on my friend Chris Kaye's part with the jumbo three. There you go. Potent offense wide receiver three. Yes.

Power three. Yes. It goes to the twos, the twos and the threes. It's basically it's the non-linear number ones. Frequently outperform the ones. And that was, that came to fruition exactly. last year with Washington with Jeline Polk, who was, what, going in 18, 19, round 20. And I think he ended up as a wide receiver, too, if I'm not mistaken.

Do you remember? I'm just curious, do you remember who was the prime example from two years ago when you? Booke. Oh, yes. It was Booke. And then before that, Devante Smith, you know, because he was the number three going on that behind rugs, behind Judy. And then he came in and he said, no. I'm the guy.

No. And did he have, my gosh. But yeah, those are just the recent ones. And again, these are power five, power four examples of serious wide receiver rooms that you can make some money out of. And I get into that, obviously, down the board a little bit. But, you know, other things, just some other data points that I like to do is almost like my co-worker, MBC Matthew Berry having like the way he would do that. some of that.

But in 2020, the top 15 point score has all had a thousand yards or more in the air, right? Top 15. So that is a mark that we want to be looking at. Obviously, you look at a few of these that are interesting, but it's extremely hard to have a low

target, to have a sub 90 target threshold in terms of, you know, what your workload is. And getting to the 1,000 yard mark. It's extremely difficult. And if you don't have 60 receptions, it's even more difficult, right? So out of 155,000 receivers since 2018, only 16% of them did not reach 60 receptions or 100 targets, right? It's

important. It's an important benchmark that we need to be remembering for these sort of things. Lastly, I guess we'll get into here's a few more of those. It gets to when it comes to receivers that had 1,000 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, and less than 1,000 targets, there's only one receiver since 2018 that managed to do that twice. So if somebody's doing it, and that CD-Landt, who's got, the wide receiver two in the NFL right now, maybe three, if it's at the worst, at the worst, it takes a talent of that level in the Lincoln-Reilly system, too, that he did it to be able to cross those thresholds without the volume, that we need. So these are the sort of things you just want to make sure when you're evaluating,

we're going through these B4 teams, and we're hitting that rule of 35, right? And then here's, here's some guys, right? A single team in the FBS had three or more 90 plus target wilds in 2023. That would start departure from previously. Used to have the big offense of the Western Kentucky's, you know, stuff like that. They would do it. So 14 teams supported multiple 90 target wide receivers. Five teams produced a pair of 100 target wideouts. As you see here, Washington, right there, Oregon, Virginia. You expect Washington and Oregon, but look at Virginia here, you know, certainly something

to be considered with Malachi Fields. Malik Washington is now departed. Where do those targets go? Obviously, these are things you want to look at, and these are sort of the metrics. Here are the rooms right here that are producing the high volume targets. Those are the places you want to be focusing some of your shots because they have a higher ability to hit. It's just math with the 35 passes and the 35 points and the targets. All those things go in the passing games.

Michael, take it away. Yeah, I mean, I get volume of targets is obviously essential to. I tend to look at it sometimes from a different lens. And I like the target share just because you know when a team is passing, it's going in one or two primary directions. I think you mentioned it with Malachi Fields and Virginia. I mean, when they dropped back to pass, it was literally going in two directions, right? It was going to Washington or is it going to Malachi Fields, right?

And so I did some research over, you know, the off-season. and just kind of targeting those teams and systems which generally feature the wide receiver one. Of course, the over the scraping of the data, like literally the first three teams on the list are Minnesota, Air Force, and Rutgers. So I wish I would have chosen at least high volume passing offenses, especially Air Force. That's part of it. Then you start to move down the list. Steve Sarkesian at Texas features his wide receiver one on average 27% of the time, which is a really high number, obviously.

Major Applewhite, I know it's not a P4 team, but at South Alabama, now the head coach. So that's why, you know, people are drafting Jamal Pritchett and Devin Voic. And so he typically features the wide receiver one often. You just kind of going down the list, Shannon Dawson and Miami. We obviously love Xavier Restrepo, usually around 27 percent. His wide receiver won. Kirby Moore, obviously great with Luther Burden. I think we expect probably 30% target share, though.

So for me, 100 targets is very important, but I also look for 30% target share because that means that your quarterback is typically just throwing it in one direction, and that means high volume. You're going to get 100 plus and maybe even more. Yeah, good point, though. I am no one-direction fan.

Moving on to the tight end position. as always, always, always fun and an interesting evaluation. We're getting into the tight ends. Just in terms of their value, I guess, is I guess we'll start. And how you approach the position draft-wise, how do you look at the tight-end position? And what rounds do you think for a P-4 format are you targeting them in? I was kind of going to go into it.

when we go into the draft. But to be honest, like in our 16 team draft, like rounds, I waited until rounds 8 and 10 to draft my two tight ends, I believe. I know one of them I got in round 10. And while it could be a huge advantage, I know that it's a definite fact in the NFL, right, where you have the, you know, the Travis Kelsey of the world, Mark Andrews, like they can be a huge difference.

in those latter weeks. I think the depth that tied end this year in college fantasy, in particular with the P4 options, is really lengthy. So I was fine, and we have the draft board up there right now. As you can see, I drafted Luke Lichet, top five, top 10, likely guaranteed tight end in round seven, and then a guy that I have as my tight end eight, Tyler Warren in round 10. so you don't in my opinion have to go up to draft a P4 tight end in this format and you know I'm going to stick to that method most likely when when underdog here opens up interesting so

as we're looking at this draft boy or Ronda Gatson was the first one taken and you know notable Tito and uh brand kithy which gosh if we're going to talk it's hard to argue with that I mean, you got a lachet two rounds later, or, you know, a round and a half later, call it 515 to 7.4. But, you know, there's a reason for that. And obviously, Iowa's offense has been much maligned, even though they have a new OC. But for Utah, Andy Ludwig is the god of tight ends. I mean, he nobody, nobody produces tight end production like offensive coordinator.

of Utah, Andy Ludwig. So this is a guy that, if you remember, in I believe, 2021 was it? You see here. I believe in 2021, they actually had, yeah, Utah had two tight ends, both Keithy and Dalton Kincaid that put up 500 yards and five touchdowns, which is really for me the benchmark of successful tight end play. I mean, that's really looking for.

He had great tight ends going back to Vanderbilt. Jared Pinckney was the tight end three back in 2018. That is correct. Let's go up here to the number 2018. Here you go. And let's take a look. Yes, here he is Vanderbilt. Year four out of Ludwig produced a 505 tight end.

You ain't seeing another 505 tight end out of Vanderbilt in a while. Don't hold your breath on that one, folks. But yeah, look at him. He did it. And if you're looking at that, you know, looking at trends. In 2018, you know, 37 tight ends had 40 targets. There was seven of them. 5P5, 2G5 with the 505.

And now, if we look here and there's 2022, 53 tight ends with 40 plus targets. I mean, again, look, 37 in 2018, 53 in 2022, right here. year. And then 2023, again, 52. So just in that that short space, and that's why I kind of dialed it back to 2018, you notice with all of these positions, the gradual, if not gradual, kind of a rapid shift from the running back oriented offenses to everybody is spreading it out or air rating. It gets everything is a version of spread nowadays. And it's drastically changed the fantasy landscape because just more points have distributed throughout these passing games.

Now, Dalai Holker, my gosh, 105 targets last year. That is superhuman. Colorado State, obviously, it doesn't apply as much to us. But if we look at how the targets are distributed from the P5 to G5 levels, I mean, 33 of these tight ends that had 52, target 40 shooting of these 52 tight ends at 40 plus targets we're in the power five i mean that's two thirds of these tight ends are power five tight ends and it goes to show continuity in the passing game you're going to be better off in the power four anyways simply because there's

better quarterbacks and there's better guys with better hands and when it comes to that that aspect the continuity, it's just easier to get points out of more talented players. It's a harder thing to do to catch the ball 40 yards down field than just simply just have the ball put into your stomach and just run forward like you can with G5 running vans. Yeah. I was talking a little bit about tight-ins, my friend. No, I was just going to add on to that.

And it speaks to exactly what you're saying. I kind of alluded to it earlier. So like 58% of the top 50 quarterbacks from last year are from the P4, okay? Right around half, okay? 60% of the highest scoring or the top 50 running backs are from the P4 from last year, okay, around the same range. You kind of drop down to 48% with the wide receivers, 48% of the top 50 scoring wide receivers last year come from the P4. P4. That number skyrockets to 76% among tight ends. 19 of the top, 19 of the top 25 scoring high scoring tight ends from last year came from the P4.

And then 10 of those 19 are back this year. In my opinion, that speaks to my point that I made earlier. I think you can bypass the tight end position within the first five rounds because I think the depth at the position this year is just so. is different than the other positions. My gosh. Yeah, I mean, that's 76. That is, frankly, I didn't even know that, and that's a staggering number, to be honest with you.

And it's right in line when we were talking about here, just some data points, the 37 tight end. That's a 41% increase from 2018 to this year. That's pretty amazing. You know, despite the tight end, you just 12 players hit the 505 tight end mark in 19 and 2021, hit nine. Nine of them hit it this year.

So that's interesting that, you know, we didn't have quite the same volume back then, but, you know, there was just, just more production. And this kind of speaks to it right here, and I'll kind of move on after this to checking out the draft board. But in 2022, just one G5 tight end hit 505.

As Kate and Preascoigne, what did you do? He immediately went to Ole Miss. So I had nobody returning last year. This year, it's only Harold Fanon. that's a 505 G5 tight end that's returning. So it just goes to show that there's only one coming back. It's a guy who is kind of a yes, Tito elements to his game, but he is a tight end.

And just goes to show just how hard it is to find that production in the G5 level. It's just a different level than what we are accustomed. That being said, at the 45 minute mark, we will be taking our final commercial break. All right. Now, draft board time. Actually, we should probably hit, I don't know how to put the comments on the show. But I'll go and talk about this a little bit. Pretty good point that historical anomalies makes here.

The first, you know, week zero is August 24th. So we've got five weeks here, right? I don't know. Bestball mania has 150 entrance and he brings up a good point. How many entrants does college football? best ball mania have because if it's 150 bro i don't know if we have enough time with 52 days to drop 150 bet falls i don't know if i got that in my back mich that's a lot plus i mean what are they 25 how much are they each like 25 bucks a piece i think it range it ranges i think it's

does it range i think it's five to two dollars five dollars yeah whatever yeah it's like dfs kind Yeah. Okay, because in order to do the best ball mania, it has to be a certain thing. Oh, we'll find out, obviously. Hopefully somebody can give us a little heads up. But man, it's just, I didn't thought about it. Like, I've got 150 max entries. Is that happening? But all right, yeah, sounds good.

Moving on here, full screen in it on the Streamyard tab going here. We get almost as much as we can. We can get the first half. here. So if we're looking at the first round, this is barely, I would say, in line in terms of the first 10 picks, Mike, with what we've seen in just a standard best ball, non-p4, mostly running backs with premium wide receivers sprinkled in and in Tetaroa and Burden. And in this format, obviously being a QB heavy, you know, format, it was a hard pivot right after Devin Neal. to quarterbacks in order to make sure that just what everybody here wants to make sure they get their guys before the QB run comes.

Because like we're talking about, this is a, in this format, 30 rounds and two QBs, right? So we're going full sick because obviously that's what we do. Underdog is going to want to make it a little more accessible to the common man, you know, and have 18 rounds. Now I'll go quite as deep. and historical actually mentioned that as well in the chat, is that people complain apparently on Unddog a lot about the length of the drafts. Apparently they haven't met the college fancy football community because all we do is sicko drafts, so don't worry about us.

Nobody's going to be complaining about extra draft spots, but, you know, to be his or her own, clearly to be right out of the gate was extremely important. Now, I think that's going to be the same. theme when we're talking about projecting to the power for best balls because look if you're drafted three of them like we said at three six six three format that's 36 QBs maybe you get some who double up and go with the four QB method I but I mean what do you think I I would go with four QBs even though like the the you're going to be dealing with attrition and the running

back you need as many running guys as you can I would probably I think I would, yeah, I just, here's my stance is that quarterback is the highest scoring position in college fantasy, right? And I want to make sure if, especially if you're, if you don't use, you know, a schedule matrix and your biweeks aren't lined up. There's no not using a schedule major. You can't, yes, you can't. You have to have a schedule matrix. And you don't you guys have them? I mean, CFF side, Zach does an amazing one that puts out.

So, you know, a little plug for CFF site. But in general, I don't want to miss on having, I don't want a zero at any point for a quarterback, in my opinion, right? So I don't mind going with four quarterbacks if this is the, you know, the format that we are going to be working with. But in general, with the quarterbacks, my kind of overall take with doing this draft is I don't necessarily think you have to hit it. in the first couple rounds, but you also can't wait too, too long here.

Okay. And I thought starting, if you're going to punt a little bit with quarterbacks in a P4, I thought starting in the fifth to sixth round was kind of the money round to at least start if you're going to, quote unquote, punt, right? I waited a little too long and went to round eight to get DJU to start my quarterback. Oh boy. Wow. How bald, Michael.

I balanced out the buy weeks. They're okay with there. But I thought the fifth to sixth round is really the sweet spot if you're not able to grab one of the top tier quarterbacks in those first two rounds. Yeah, I mean, some good value, especially Jalen Daniels in five six is an exceptional value, frankly. It's all about health with him. Yeah, if Daniels was healthy, it's on. He's got crimes there. I mean, Baylor threw for 276 a game last season, and they stumped.

you know like you're going to put them in kansas with that schedule that they got and you're going to let them roll i'm very very excited about that i also as we all know i love cam rising at six two i think it's smoking deal you at 40 touchdowns i thought i thought Nate had the best qby build here from from a punting perspective uh round six and and as we kind and talked about at the start of the show. If you're in a six-point passing touchdown league, Tyler Shuck and Blake Shepen are going to be extremely enticing quarterbacks in that range, right?

We talked about Tyler Shuck on the prop show, right? We thought him as a long shot to lead the conference ACC in passing. And then Blake Shepen, you know, I kind of compare him to a little Zach Wilson-esque, like just kind of playing style and skill set. He's going into a system under Jeff Levy. It's one of the highest fantasy producing systems in all of college football. So I really like what Nate did with the quarterback position, not drafting one in the first five rounds.

And then I think just hitting those. And then you get two dual threat quarterbacks right after that. I thought he did a really good job there. Yeah, and stack childs and valling. If you're going to go with one, let's roll. right might as well go with both of them and he did that same thing with uh oh no he didn't have bierrano i'm sorry bartholome yeah that makes a lot of sense and like you said that soft underbelly lenoor sellers could be a monster roco beck as well connor weggman if he's healthy in the

seventh round to go with shapen both of them exceptional picks i feel like you kind of go i feel like You kind of go, I feel like eighth round is where you get the dip, in my opinion. You know, I have real questions about Baron Morton, his ability to stay healthy and just his overall talent level. Did you draft Bill? Back up at Texas Tech. I thought I drafted Jake Strong. I drafted Jake Strong. You're damn right I drafted Jake Strong.

Type that, Joe D. But then, you know, like, I think there's more question marks about Tim Green. You're going to have Houston is definitely a rebuild type of a mode. with the coaching switch and having a more methodical Willie Fritz in there. DJU against switching teams. Rogers, we've talked about how tough that schedule is. Klugnick has been an underperformer.

Bowman, 3,000 yards, plus, but 18 touchdowns, total all year throwing. Childs switching. Daniels, we talked about, with the potential job issues. So, I mean, looking at this from this, from this format, it's those top seven rounds. Like Wegman and Shapen was the last hurrah. And then, you know, you hit that different level.

But once you hit it, look, there's no messing around here. There's still a lot of QBs being taken in this range. You have to balance out the bi-weeks and just kind of play with the schedules a little bit to make sure everybody's aligned and everything like that at that point. Because then once you hit round 15, look, Yarnel, starter, Mendoza, He's in a job fight. Mike Wright, good luck. Hank Bachmeier's a starter.

Fine, 14. But once you get past that, oh, it's on round 15. No. It's Showtime. Round 15. I was going to mention switching kind of positions here.

Like, that round 15 range is where kind of ends for me for running backs? You are not drafting any starter after round 15. You're literally drafting all handcuffs at that point. Roger Robertson, Robinson, sorry, Jalen Glover, Caleb Johnson from Iowa, Desmond Reed from Pittsburgh. Everybody that went in that kind of 15, 16, 17 round range,

they're all backups. And I don't know how many. Running backs and QBees. Yeah, exactly. Everybody is. Yeah. And I did the same thing with Glover and Whittington 16 and 17. and I'm like, all right, I'm taking a couple of guys who can take you out to be,

have some nice big weeks here and there. But my gosh, there's going to be some blanks you're taking. If you are punting two positions, in my opinion, it would be the wide receiver and the tight end strictly for that fact, right? I mentioned, like I got Tyler Warren, who in my opinion is the top 10 tight end in round 10. We're still in round 28 out of 30 at this point. And people are still drafting starting wide receivers, right?

Starting wide receivers in the 28th round. So in my opinion, you're hitting those quarterbacks and you're hitting those running backs pretty hard within those top 15 rounds. Yeah, like you said, there's plenty of receivers that are set to get targets down here. I had Tiger Bachmeier on my radar. I was going to say, who are your best value picks? uh in this range maybe like round 20 and beyond if you had if you had to choose see let's let's set the stage here for this uh felton's a nice safe pick oh that's me uh manjack why not it's gonna be the potential one at houston if tech tech throws i like eacon what i saw

for him too oh i love lawrence arnold love lawrence arnold in this range round 20 is the number one wide receiver. They threw 20 passes in the game, maybe 23. That's why I think they were at. They were extremely low. Yeah. But, you know, they were just really effective. Just when they chose to throw, they were doing it at the right time with Mr. Bean.

It was how you got Daniels back? Yeah. It was just at the time, it was low volume. And literally it was like, we were talking about target share earlier. It was like 15%, 15%, 15% across the board with Luke Grimm and Quentin Skinner, the other three starting receivers, they're all back. They're all back.

Kobe Pace, round 20, we just talked to me, the first pick in round 20, that's a starting running back in round 20. Not many out there, right? You got like a banged up digs. Who knows what happens in there? Toa, Phil is a third guy. And as you said, a running back that's going to get a lot of

targets in the passing game. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, those, that stands out. This is a PPR league. Lomoni is Craig for Arizona. If you look at you know, go back and read my wide receiver article. Arizona, cowing and Tet, all right, the past few years, getting pounded with targets. Somebody's going to take those cowling reps. Who's going to be, right?

I mean, not a bad shot there. I was literally thinking about this earlier, and I'm going to probably give away a pick to somebody in these last few rounds. Malachi Riley hasn't been chosen. He caught a 70-yard touchdown in the spring game, I believe. And Montana Lemonius Craig hasn't necessarily done. anything in his four to five year career. Someone's going to get it. So, yeah, there's a ton of vacated targets.

Somebody's not, a tech's not going to get 200 targets. So got to go to someone. He's not getting 200 targets. And he's not banged up a little bit. You think they want to ride him hard in the early non-con? Probably not. You know, at least, you know, worth a little bit of speculation here. Ellison, he should be the leader.

I mean, Katelyn Black's over there, too. She's the running back. It's so thin. It's not a lot to really love. Obviously, I like the Will Hammond pick by Luke. I think that could certainly happen. Connor Harrell. Hey, why not?

I don't like Max Johnson at all. So I think Harold's probably the favorite. I know Chris Well's there too, but I think I prefer Harold. Do you like him enough to go over 2,000, 220, passing yards? No. Or Max Johnson. You know I like him to go on this.

You know I like it's under. Come on now. I'll just offer a couple up that I liked. Zid Haynes by Justice in round 25. Could be the wide receiver one there. He's got familiarity with the new coaching staff, obviously coming home from Georgia, led the team in targets in the spring game.

I kind of like LJ Johnson. I don't have from SMU. I don't necessarily have him ranked over Jalen Knighton at this point, but he's got had multiple 100-yard rushing games in the second half of last season, and I think an important set too, led SMU and Red Zone carries last year. Obviously, we like touchdowns in fantasy. So I think he's a deep kind of late sleeper there. And then Malik Carr, Houston, tight end.

transfers. We've drafted a lot of him. I get a lot of best ball shares in one. Inept quarterback play, obviously, last year at Michigan State. I believe he's a former basketball player. Tom Izzo might have included him to Michigan State. He had 30 receptions again for a terrible passing game last year. I think it should be better at Houston with Donovan Smith. And I know you mentioned Joseph Manjack, but, you know, who else is there besides him, really, in that wide receiver room? So I think Malik, car is definitely a deep sleeper at tight end and sounds like you like him as well it's well i mean he broke i think 12 tackles and 30 receptions they're like almost for like a 40% broken tackle rate

as a tight end sounds like running back in the tight i mean in the in the big 10 yeah like give me some elite car i love it but that's that's a thing like you got arroyo's got a shot being somebody too out here you know dynches that's a high volume passing offense trick take the Morales, why not Famari Marales, B.C. Forever and ever, Amen. Do they throw to the tight end? So, yeah, I mean, no problem with that. I think there's a lot of receiver potential value. Receivers and tight ones.

There's another one. Montori Foster, he looked great in the spring game. And he's got Jonathan Smith and Childs there. You know, this is a different, there's a whole different system. And screw Thor for that grim scaring combo there. He was so proud of that. Oh, yeah. He was squawking. Reggie Love ain't a bad shot there too.

I can't argue with that. Dawson Pendergrass could work out. Another guy he cut a lot of passes last year, and it was pretty good at it. We still know what we're getting out of Baylor. It could be anybody, right? Anyone. Dom Richardson went 2110. Can't stand down.

I know. It's like I would, I'd rather have pendergrass at one. Just real quick, the Baylor running back coach in the offseason, literally came out and said, I am a running back by committee guy. You don't get many running backs coach that says that, right? Yeah, I know. But here we are.

He wants to keep his guys fresh. So be it. But, you know, just getting back to the front, you kind of see, look at the change in colors. Look at all the blue you have down here, right? Look at all the blue and purple. And then you go up here and look at all the red and yellow. like it just especially through here it's just that's it seems like that's a lot of red and yellow through this area

i think we know our strategy for yeah tomorrow maybe tomorrow maybe late this week yeah well tomorrow tomorrow we got to we got to record we'll be up there bright and early um hopefully that's what's going down so i think hopefully the drafts are rocking tomorrow we don't know but that certainly could be the case. That's part of the fun is who knows. Who knows what we're getting out of this from the underdog bestball media? You know, as Tom Petty once saying, the waiting is the hardest part, but we shouldn't have to wait too much longer.

We got the game coming in. CFF best ball, 12 team playoff. Let's go. Gentlemen. Are you fired up, Michael? Yeah, I was going to say, though, when you start breaking. can out song lyrics, it's time to wrap things up. Well, we're an hour of five in, okay?

So we're not allowed to go past an hour of 10 is our hard, drop dead time. I know I've tried before, and I've been reprimanded. So I guess we could, you know, wrap it up here. Do you have any other observations, any thoughts? Final thoughts on your strategy, you will be kind of wrapping up, looking at these 18 roster bestball formats that we think is how these will be formatted. Yeah, I really, I think I like getting two quarterbacks and two running backs within the top

seven rounds. That would be preferable. I really think you can punt, especially P4, kind of based upon the stats that we alluded to earlier, I think you can punt a little bit on tight end here. There's some really good options. It's a really deep class. There might not be those high-end options at tight-end this year, like Brock Bowers. But I think it's a really deep class from a fantasy perspective.

And, you know, we talked about it. You can get starting receivers very late, rounds 20 and beyond here. So that's kind of the approach that I would take. Yeah, there's a lot of receivers. I will say just a little bit on the QBs with the fact that you'll be rostering three tops for. We're not getting, it's not going to be rostering more than four. No. You could make, like I said, that's what, 40 QBs?

You know, three QBs out of 12, that's, that's 36. You know, you get to 40, maybe a couple and go to that 4, 42. It's not a lot, right? So, I mean, I think I'll probably be looking at going with the classic running back with the first pick since you're only starting one. I'm going to be heavy running back then. We've got the Giddens, Taylor, Mopaman, J. Omari and Hampton Beach, Martinez, Brooks, Otto, Neil, I mean, Baxter, Sautchuk,

you've got a lot of talent up there at that top end of the running back room. And then when you get into round three, you know, I like LeQuint, but there's still conjecture, Abu Sama, Harvey now has Penny Boone in town, Donovan Edwards. I'm going to be looking, I'm going to be looking running back early. That's going to be my default. If I can get one, I'm taking one. I might even go with a running back in the second round, and I think third round is probably going to be my pivot point

because you're going to be able to get Jeremy Bernard, who has Camel de Borr going in there. Egbuka, he was a fourth rounder here. He's the certainty you're getting out of that. Audio manner is a guy to love. You know, I just think that I might be, you know, we might have a little difference in philosophy tomorrow, Michael on the stream when it comes to our best ball drafting philosophy.

I'm going running back, Henry, I think. I can't help but be drawn in by, you know, the certainty. And the fact that we have the short benches, I might be feeling a little bold on maybe waiting until around four or five on those QBs. Like you talked about, you liked how we waited the teams that waited in a 16-team format. If we're in a 12-team format and we're waiting to round four or five, didn't it be even more a meal? Yep.

I'm interested. This is going to be a lot of fun. So looking forward to when this eventually drops. I'm hoping that comes tomorrow morning. We will see. We're dreaming that it's a Tuesday a day. But thank you all to listening for myself, from Michael Bainbridge,

for the entire fantasy football community. We've been waiting so long to this season. 2024 is our season. No more NFL. Everybody knows. The gig is up with the NFL. It's homogenized and it's boring. We are the future.

College Fantasy football. for life and always remember do small things with great love. Nice. Nice. What? What? Why you're shaking your head? You're welcome.