Fantasy Football Daily - The Guru's 2023 Underdog Best Ball Draft Plan | Hansen's Hints Podcast

Episode Date: May 19, 2023

After participating in a good number of post-NFL Draft Underdog Fantasy best ball leagues, John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) has developed one of his industry-standard Draft Plans strictly for the format, with roster construction hints and top players to target at each position. He goes position-by-position for his full breakdown in his latest show. Read the written version of the Guru's 2023 Underdog Best Ball Draft Plan. FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. What is up, everyone? Welcome to another edition of Hanson's Hence here on the Fantasy Points podcast feed. I am John Hanson and going to be doing this podcast every week. Now, we started this last week today, recording this puppy on Thursday, May 18th. So a weekly podcast from yours truly between 20 and 60 minutes, most likely, at least, let's say 30 and 60 minutes, 20 to 30 and 60 minutes, every week for the rest of the season. And today I just wrapped up the first draft, if you will, of my draft plan, basically.

But we usually start nowadays with a little best ball preview, kind of feel things out in the draft plan while forming it looking at underdog fantasy, our friends over there. And this is basically an underdog fantasy best ball draft plan. but it is really the crux of my early 2023 plan here. And we'll revise the article, tweak it just a little bit, get it up on the website. Pretty soon, probably, I mean, this is up now at fantasypoints.com. So you can read the article and get the crux of it. But I'll probably break out the complete, massive full version in sometime in, June. But before we get into the individual positions here, breaking down the plan, just a quick

overview of what this is. And, you know, it's a basically a plan of action, a little bit of a hand-holding type of an article. And that's how it started 20 years ago when, you know, I used to get a lot of requests for, well, what would you do in a draft? And how would you approach this? So I'm like, all right, well, getting a lot of questions about this. So let me just start formulating a plan. of attack every year for my drafts. Most of the time the plan lately is somewhat similar, but there's always a little nuanced item or two nuances that we sprinkle in and make some adjustments for the, for the current year.

And this year in particular, I am deviating from the normal plan a little bit more than usual. We'll get into it and certainly trying to always be decisive. which I feel like I am and clear, basically, not a little too flexible. I try to narrow it down to, okay, this is what I'm going to do, and here's who I'm going to do it with. And that's an important point because, you know, the draft plan, I think it used to be about just guiding position by position, you know, my approach. When am I looking to draft a quarterback this year? How many running backs do I want early? things like that. But, you know, I found that to really map out the plan, you've got to talk

about the players you're going to use to implement the plan. So the draft plan is what it suggests with the name, but it also includes basically all my personal players to target. So without any further ado, let's go through it here. The article, like I said, just dropped at fantasypoints.com this afternoon. And that's one thing I'm going to do. Whatever I write. about something in a given week. I'll do an accompanying podcast, and that's what this is for the draft plan. So we start that plan, of course, at the quarterback position. And as I've said for a couple of years now, if you read my stuff, read my stuff, or hear

me on Sirius XM, you know, the savvies, if you will, the sharps have been very quietly giving a little more love to the quarterback. there was a time about five to seven years ago where I would say a lot of people were conditioned to hold off in the quarterbacks. Of course, experts and the like, we typically all hold off on the quarterbacks when we do these expert drafts for websites and magazines. But I have noticed over the last few years that, yeah, they're getting a little bit more love. And this year, it's very, very out of control. I think we do have some data where we've got maybe some super flex situations involved there. But generally speaking, the quarterbacks are getting pushed up the board way higher than usual, which, look, I'm all about impact players.

That's why I've never been afraid of using a somewhat early pick on a quarterback. In fact, in the draft plan itself, I have advocated over the last, let's just say, two years. didn't recall the year before that, but I have advocated drafting a top seven quarterback in each of the last two years. Last year, my guy was Joe Burrow, and he was perfect because he was the QB7 off the board. I had him at four. He was four. So that was a good buying opportunity there, a little bit of a value. But more importantly, you just made a great pick with Joe Burrow. You got some value for sure, but you made a great pick for Burrow. Unfortunately, his price tag is basically doubled from where it was last year.

Maybe a little less than that ADP here on Underdog of 41. So anyway, back to the quarterback plan here. You know, by the way, the year before Josh Allen was the guy that I was really, really into. And that was just, you know, it was not until 2022 that Josh Allen truly got to love. but they're all getting love now, including Allen, of course, Mahomes, Jalen Hertz, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields. Those are the top five quarterbacks. So what's a little ironic, I guess, is that I have been talking about a willingness to go a little

early at quarterback lately, yet now that seems like everyone is doing that, not everyone, but the quarterbacks have clearly been pushed up the board. I'm kind of out on going quarterback early. And part of that is, I mean very early, part of that is the cheat code guys getting hurt the last couple of years. Jalen Hertz has been a major juggernaut, but not in the fantasy playoffs. Last year he was out. But the semis and the finals the year before that, he had that ankle injury and he was not as effective. Lamar Jackson, of course, was out of the mix.

And Justin Fields got banged around a lot too. so I'm not exactly trusting Justin Fields. So when I formulated my draft plan here for 2023, I'm passing on these guys, most likely. I'm also likely passing on Justin Herbert, who I didn't isolate last year, but, you know, did rank him at two, I guess like everybody else, unfortunately.

And he'll do better this year. I feel okay about him, but not necessarily relating cost-wise to, his contemporaries who are a little less expensive. So when I start out that draft plan, if I get to a point early in the draft where I'm like, oh, wow, I don't see any great running backs here or wide outs or certainly tight ends.

Well, okay, I am willing to go QB early with my guy Burrow in the fourth round. That's when you can get him. Not opposed to it. Listed him as one of my targets. It's just not ideal. I do have a sneaking suspicion that they're going to throw the ball a little bit more this year. A lot of rumblings about Joe Mixon, whether or not he's going to be there.

They lost Samajie P. Ryan. They did ask Chase Brown at him in a draft. Pretty good back. Great kid. But they don't seem that concerned about some slippage running the rock with Joe Mixon. Maybe that's because they're going to throw it a little bit more with Burrow, yet another year removed from that ACL. the offensive line is in the best shape it's been probably in 10 years and you might not have another year with Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.

Now they add Irf Smith as well. You may not be able to keep the band together. So if I'm Zach Taylor, I'm like, yeah, we're going to throw a little bit more this year with Burrow, who obviously can handle it, but that's not my ideal plan of action at quarterback. What I really want to do is get a little bit more value. I'm greedy. I want a stud and I want a value. And at 60 overall on Underdog Fantasy, this guy really fits the exact profile that Joe Burrow fit last year.

And that's Trevor Lawrence. You know, all the analysis we have on the site or will have, but obviously he was very good last year down the stretch. I liked how he fought through a lot of adversity. He struggled for about a month. Then he played hurt, proved he could play hurt. and then he lit it up down the stretch. But he really fits my profile of a perfect quarterback like Burrow last year and Mahomes, as I've been saying, I like the cheat code.

I don't want to rely on the cheat code. I want to cheat with the cheat code, basically. I want a guy who wins from the pocket like Burrow and Mahomes typically, but also adds 300 yards, two, three touchdowns on the ground. You know, give me 50 points with your legs, and that's exactly what Trevor Lawrence has done the last couple of years with, was it five rushing touchdowns last year. And when you really look at, I really look deeply into this,

we're going to take off with the passing numbers because his YPA was not that great and neither was his touchdown percentage. So I think those two numbers are on the rise. So he's way up there in terms of my ideal quarterback one in any format, but certainly here on Underdog Fantasy. But my number one target, Lawrence is two. The guy who I think is going to present the best ROI at 77 overall at quarterback is, in fact, DeShon Watson. I spoke today with my boy Nathan Zagora, who is the color commentator for the Browns Radio Network and formerly a fantasy guy.

He's totally with me on Watson being like the target this year. And look, he works for the team. He is Mr. optimistic on the Browns, but you could tell in his voice that he's kicked it up a little bit in terms of the enthusiasm for his Cleveland Browns, and I'm with him. I think this is one of the best rosters in the league, and they really have no weaknesses. So they'll be, I think, very competitive. All five starters returning on the offensive line. They love Elijah Moore. I love Elijah Moore. Really like Cedric Tillman as well. Chopped it up with him at the Combine. Great kid.

professional and David Nijoku looking good they even bring in Jordan Akins who is Deshawn's boy from back in Houston he's actually pretty good decent blocker and good red zone guy doesn't bode well for my other guy Harrison Bryant and also when you look at the Browns they did not do anything at running back other than letting D. Ernest Johnson and Kareem Hunt walk so we do a like Jerome Ford. He is the backup and the handcuff, but that is another indication that they're going to be a little bit more about the forward pass. So Deshawn Watson, my number one target. Now, we always need a backup plan. You know, again, ideally I'm going into a draft targeting Lawrence in fifth, sixth round, and then Watson a round or two later. But if I miss out, get

hosed, got to have a backup plan. That's Daniel Jones at 100 over. overall. He's quarterback 13 off the board. And I just, I understand it to an extent because the man only threw 15 touchdown passes, but last year. But he was a QB1. And, you know, we've been talking about this on the radio and other places about the phenomenon that, you know, is the giant offense here near two under Brian Dayball. And Dayball and friends, Mike Kafka. What they did first and foremost was They reigned them in, Daniel Jones, took care of the ball security issues and the like, and obviously ran him a lot. Maybe he doesn't run as much this year, but obviously he's going to run a lot.

He's basically a poor man's Josh Allen at this point, and he's a very effective runner. But the question now is, will he maintain the ball security and all that stuff when you're letting it rip a little bit more, which they need to do? I got to lean toward the positive here. You check all the, you line up the pros and the cons here for Daniel Jones, and you're checking way, way more on the pro side than the con side. There is absolutely no doubt about it. So pretty high level of confidence here in Danny Dimes,

who, by the way, per fantasy points data from weeks 10 to 18, was first in the NFL and completion percentage. over expectation. So that is a very good sign, 4.9%. That's a clear sign that he's still ascending and likely to hit very, very soon. We certainly need quarterback depth on underdog. It's a set-in-forget-it situation. Kirk Cousins checks in as, you know, essentially my top backup quarterback,

QB2 guy continues to put up numbers. The strength of the team is the offense. their offensive line's been slow going, but there is a lot of talent here. Left tackle Christian Darsaw entering year number three should be really good. He's a very good player. So we had Jordan Addison. Defense is going to stink. Kirk is going to do it again.

And here are the other QB2s that I'm targeting for my drafts this summer. And, of course, best ball drafts right now here in May. I am in on Russell Wilson at 128. for the record, no parts of them last year, but I'm in with a lowered ADP, basically a 50% reduction in price and with Sean Payton here in the saddle in Denver and Jerry Judy looking really good.

We'll get to him. Kenny Pickett at 172. I know Canada is terrible, but read the article. Kenny Pickett had the 33rd best touchdown percentage last year. I mean, dudes like Marcus Mark. Ariota and Justin Field smoked them. 1.8%.

Those dudes were over 5%. So what I'm trying to say is, yeah, it's a problem, but look at the room for growth. All we have to do, we double it. And that's only, by the way, good for QB 22, second best, 22nd best. If we doubled his touchdown percentage, it would still only rank 22nd best last year. I didn't even double it. and he still comes in way over the markets there. So he's a really good value, I think.

Good player may not be a stud. He does have some limitations, but QB25 is simply too low for Ken Pickett, who, by the way, is going to run a little bit too. And he kind of fits that profile too. No reason why Kenny Pickett can't give us 300 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. I mean, absolutely no reason.

Heck, he did it last year with the Russian. Touchdowns for sure. I mean, he got got it in there. Was that three? Let's take a look here. Rushing touchdowns three. Yeah, there we go. It was close.

237 and 3. That's about it. You know, we'll take that because that's kind of like 302. So that's what I'm talking about. Augment the value. So Kenny Pickett, feeling it. And then 195, we're digging deep here, but Brock Purdy. was the best touchdown percentage guy in all football last year,

among all quarterbacks, let's say, attempting at least 170 passes. 7.6% touchdown rate. He's not overly talented. He's not a gifted guy at all. The rate could drop in half by 50%, yet I still think he'd be a viable pick with all the weapons here. He is in a perfect system that's damn near quarterback proof in San Francisco. Then finally, I'm going to list McCorkel-Jones again.

I did have him in this article last year. but I did not spin it positively. It was all about the cost, and that cost has gone down even a little bit this year. 208. We all know what happened last year. They ran the offense into the ground, did Matt Patricia and Joe Judge,

but a lot of confidence in Bill O'Brien. Very good play caller. Okay, let's say good play caller and office coordinator. Maybe not a great head coach. very good overall coach on the opposite side of the ball and a good offensive play caller very good very good um so there it is my ranking of my top five favorite picks based on underdog ADP number one Watson at 77 number two Trevor Lawrence at 60 number three Daniel Jones at 100 number four I'll put my guy borough at 41. You know, it is a little cheaper than the other studs like Mahomes and Josh Allen and then

Ken Pickett there at number five. Nice little look there at my quarterback draft plan here early on for Underdog Fantasy here on, well, in May, mid-May, May 18th here. Before we get into the running backs here, quick note from our friends at the FFPC. Excellent website. Excellent interface. excellent dudes running the company. I know that because I know these dudes and we do some business with them and they're very good. All FFPC tournaments are launched and drafting right now with the only exception being their big main event, slow drafts for that kickoff July 4th. The FFPC now has two tournaments with $1 million grand prizes, the FFPC main event and the Fantasy Pros Championship. Dynasty startups also are filling daily starting at 100,

an entry all the way up to 5,000. I'm in one year two, fingers crossed. Got a little super flex action here. I got a little Justin Fields and Daniel Jones and Mack Jones, along with my running backs are too good, actually, Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. Anyway, the FFPC basketball tournament as well, is going on right now, $125 entry in the Super Flex Best Ball tournament, $35 entry, that is often running as well.

Go to myfPC.com for more. We move now to the running back plan here for 2023. And, you know, I look back at last year's plan, by the way. And, you know, I saw more hits to misses. Unfortunately, I am including guys like Brace Hall as, I'm. a hit and unfortunately that was not but it kind of was but it wasn't i mean the guy was unbelievable i was calling him fleece hall all summer because he was a you're you're committing a robbery by by getting him at his ADP of 41 and he was fleas hall until he wasn't but it's a tough position

maybe that's one of the reasons why they're being pushed down the board this is very weird I don't think I've ever seen the running backs get knocked down a peg or two like we have this year. But certainly willing to draft one of the top backs here, the top 12, McCaffrey at 3.2, Bejohn at 7.1. Echler. But look at Echler. He was like three last year. Now he's sitting here at 11.5. Jonathan Taylor at 13.

Sequin at 16. Nick Chub at 21. Pollard at 23. Derek Henry at 27. I mean, not a Derek Henry guy. but it is best ball. Josh Jacobs at 28, the aforementioned Hall at 29,

and Ramondre, who I loved last year, and we all did, but I'm a little worried about this year. He's at 30. That would be your top 11 running backs on underdog. I do not find myself targeting these guys actively. I really want to be calculated at the running back position this year by targeting the best values,

and I really do see some excellent. you know buying opportunities with some dudes who were just screaming draft me because maybe I'm in a contract year or you know we'll get into it but um I narrowed it down in the article to 10 running backs basically from rounds three through like um what was that about 10 maybe um maybe four through 10 again these running back are being pushed down the board. So here they are in their order of ADP on underdog. Naji Harris at 39.

I really think people are overthinking this or not just not paying attention. He was banged up last year. He did work through it. The guy's durable as hell. Steelers O line is stronger than it's been now in a while. They're all a year old. It was the youngest offensive football last year.

So things are looking up for Najee. There's no doubt about it. the number one pick had left tackle, Dornel Washington, a tight end going to help out the blocking. J.K. Dobbins, you know, last year, J.K. stood for just kidding because his ADP was around 60, and we had, we were nowhere near that.

We had him, I had him about 35 picks, I believe, outside or listed below his ADP, because we're not messing around with that serious knee injury. So that's why we'll keep an eye on Javante Williams this year, by the way, something similar, but it is ironic. that this could be the lowest ADP J.K. Dobbins has ever had. Let's call it 59. It's very close.

Maybe a couple of years ago before the injury, he was getting some love. But it is all there for him. They did nothing in the backfield. So it's just Gus Edwards, basically, behind him. And, you know, some people are nitpicking, oh, they're going to throw more. Okay. Well, Dobbins can catch it. You know, he did a solid job catching a ball last year.

in the rookie year from lamar so the data at fantasy points data really points to a return you know weeks three through seven three point five yards of carry two point four yards after initial after contact and just point one seven forced miss tackles per carry those numbers soared from three point five yPC to seven from two point four yards after contact a four 4.2, and then from 1.7, forced mistackles per carry to 0.21. So, and it's the final year of his rookie deal, and he's looking to get the biggest contract of his life. So draft J.K. Dobbins. I'm going to go Damien Pierce at 61.4 because I'm not that worried about Devin Singletary. He'll look, they overexposed Pierce last year, and he wore down. They don't want that to happen.

so you sprinkle in some single terry. You give him a series of two or three. Number five here on the list. This one is, wow, Cam Acres at 74.6, all the data in the article points to him being completely back to form, which is what I thought watching him down the stretch. He was obviously a league winner, 4.9 yards carry in the final six. games 2.1 yards before contact per carry compared to 0.54. So the O line also came together a little

bit as well. And I am very confident that Sean McVeigh will want to get back to his roots with one bell cow and that they'd be willing to, you know, run acres into the ground, basically. It's the final year of his rookie deal. He'll be plenty motivated. They may not resign them. Or if he balls out like Josh Jacobs, maybe they will, or at least franchise them. We shall say, oh, they can franchise them, actually. He's a second round pick. So there it is. I mean, a lot of motivation for Cam Acres.

Next guy is Rashad White. That is my guy, 77.2. I don't think anyone was higher on him than I was. Maybe a couple right there with me. And here we go. We're looking really good. No additions of note in the backfield. Of course, no more Leonard.

They did bring in. Tucker from Syracuse undrafted, but they did pay them fairly well. So he could make the team and be a factor, but it's all Rashad. He's basically the face of the franchise already. If you follow them on social media and all in 7780P, that's going to go up. I'll take them at 50. I might even take them at 40 because I think we're looking at 80 plus targets and 225 carries. The O-line will be better.

Dave Canales, the new OC, never call plays. But he comes from Seattle. He's all about the run. Did a good job as well, working with Gino last year. So, you know, cautiously optimistic there. Next up, Dave Montgomery. I could go Jemir Gibbs. He's a sexy pick.

But Montgomery's the better value at 87.6. I'm trying to be a little bit more boring this year because normally I had to fall. Gibbs, baby, let's go. But, you know, Montgomery's not bad. self, yeah, a little boring. So was Jamal Williams this time last year. Not very boring when you score 17 touchdowns, though.

So this all bodes well for Montgomery. I think he'll be their short yardage guy, the goal line guy, doesn't have much explosiveness, but he forces miss tackles very well. And, you know, the O line is so good. He'll have a lot less of that to do, quite frankly. They'll block it up for him much better. so Dave Montgomery is looking good. I'm going to go Alexander Madison next at 103

because while it is a complicated situation in which Dalvin Cook may have to stay here because his contract makes him untradable, I'm still going to bet that he's off this roster. Maybe it'll take a serious injury to someone during the season or in the preseason, but I'm still going to go Madison here as a real savvy pick. Brian Robinson is next on my list here.

at 106. I'm adding, basically, you could start late third, early fourth with your drafting of running backs. And you could just get two or three dudes just from this list between Harris at 38, Dobbins of 58, Pierce at 61, Acres at 75, Rashad at 77, Montgomery at 87, Madison at 103, Robinson at 107. You know, that would be a RB3 at best. You know, the offense I'm a little worried about

with Sam Howell, but another guy whose numbers improved greatly is forced to miss tackle rate, for example, rose 27% from weeks 10 to 18. So the man did get shot. Look good to me, playing at a lighter weight. Antonio Gibson here is going to

be the primary receiving back, but Robinson can catch the ball for sure, much more so than your typical early down back, who is mainly an early down back. If he really needed him to catch 40 balls, he absolutely could, maybe 50. Watched him do that at the senior ball practice the year before. And then we also have two more names here on the list. Rashad Penny at 114, major injury track record, but also just massive upside. Penny ranked second in explosive run rate last year behind a lesser O-line at 10.5%. And he also led the NFL in yards after contact per carry among running backs with 50 plus carries per fantasy points data. So you can imagine the upside. If he can somehow stay healthy, he is only under contract for this year. And while he's lucky to catch 10,

He actually does have some upside as a checked-down option here for the Eagles or anyone else. Last running back here on the list is Samaj-P Ryan at 116. His 2.79 yards after contact per attempt were actually better than Joe Mixon's last year. It's much more decisive as well. Pretty good receiver. They didn't really do anything else in this backfield. Javante Williams might avoid PUP. per Sean Payton, but we are not counting on Giovante.

And we are looking at Somaget with 15 to 20 touches basically every week for, I mean, I have to say the first two months at least. And it could be longer and, you know, bump them down to an RB3 maybe because I feel like he's going to be a factor no matter what. I mean, Javante's not going to come out here and get 275 carriers. Some other running backs here that made my list. not a lot. I'm trying to be very selective here.

I don't want to be just throwing a bunch of names out there. Roshan Johnson, we go rookies here as well, at 139. Best overall option in the Bears backfield. So that's a decent bet. Tank Bigsby at 171. That's pretty cheap, actually, because he's got a real chance to collect playing time. He's not just an early down back, too. He can catch it.

I'm going to put Pierre Strong on this. list at 2.15. It's a long shot, but very explosive dude. And we got to get somebody else involved other than Ramandre. So Strong could have a big game or two. Good for best ball. You know, take a short pass to the house, something like that. And then my final group of names here, a bunch of choice handcuffs, including Chase Brown in Cincinnati at 166, Tage Spears for Tennessee at 185. Chuba Hubbard for Carolina at 189. Jerome Ford for Cleveland at 1206. And Eric Gray, like him a lot. New York Giants 215. There is a look at the running back plan here with a bunch of names. Speaking of Underdog here, the Underdog draft plan, this show is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy

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and present in a state where underdog fantasy operates. Terms apply, concerned with your play, call 1-800 gambler, or visit www.n.ncpgambling.org. In Arizona, call 1-800 next step. In New York, call 18778 Hope, New York. In Tennessee, call. 1-800-889-9-7-89 back to the draft plan here you're listening to hanson's hints for the week of we'll call it Thursday May 18th I am john Hanson just posted the article at fantasy points

dot com this afternoon wide receiver plan this is very interesting first thing I looked at when I looked at the board was I didn't really like the options in rounds three and four at wide receiver. Not a shock because everyone is drafting wide outs early and pushing the running backs down the board. Maybe they're doing quarterbacks a little too, but they're pushing these running backs down the board. So basically my first rule is got to get into the wide receiver business.

In fact, I'm just going to say, you must draft at least one with your first two picks at this point because otherwise, I don't know. what you're doing, you're going to be missing out on some value. You're going to miss out on a potential stud-wide receiver. Only if not that many of them to go around, you're going to overdraft probably another positional player if you take a running back. You might overdraft them. Not a lot, but yeah, got to get at least one wide out. So here are the high-end names that I am targeting in the second round. Garrett Wilson, Amon Ra, and Alave. All young. still ascending.

Wilson's a stud. Now team with Rogers. Amon Ra, they're going to need them. Did a lot outside last year, a lot more than people think. So James and William's out of the mix of first six games. Amon Ra is going to be real busy. I like Alave too, certainly fits the profile of a high pedigree guy. But, you know, otherwise I wrote in the article outside of the top 24,

I'm not really feeling a lot of the dudes going off the board and the 25 the 48 range. Again, rounds three and four. This is guys like D.K. Metcalfe, Debo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, and Mike Williams. Although, I mean, I kind of do like Cooper and, and Ridley, but they are a little pricey compared to some other options. Here are some other guys that I'm going to be actively targeting in the fourth. Jerry Judy at 47. I'm in. I did not list them as a target. last year and I've always been a Judy person. I was a little skeptical of Russ Wilson,

but we saw some good chemistry there with that duo. So I'm all in. They picked up the fifth year option. This is it. Sean Payton in town. A lot of good data points here with Judy. Drake London as well. I know Desmond Ritter is not a savior and Kyle Pitts was out the final six weeks.

But for what it's worth, his 0.29 targets per route run rate was fourth in the NFL last year he was also a top seven dude in yards per route run from the slot and you know ridder's going to continue to throw it to him a lot they did nothing at receiver obviously they added be john robinson he'll do some receiving work for sure but we're looking good here with a clear one guy that they're going to hang their hat on every week on the outside in drake london so through four rounds here as I formulate the plan. I've got to have at least two wide receivers. I've mentioned some names here.

Let's go down and check out those wide outs I'm looking at. Again, I don't love that 25 to 48 range, just not in love with that. And I didn't really see much, you know, 50 to 70, honestly. We could take a look at some of these names. in this range as I sort and view just the whiteouts. Yeah, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, Jackson Smith and Jigba, which is ridiculous. Godwin, Christian Kirk.

You know, I like Godwin, willing to take him. I'm willing to take Kirk. Not loving Pittman or Smith and Jigba. You know, guys like this. Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett. It's a little bit of a dead zone there. So this is, by the way, when you should be getting your running backs on underdog right now. If we're going off the ADP, which is what we should do.

So, yeah, we're going to grab, you know, like a Chase or a Jefferson and maybe even grab a Wilson in round two and kind of load up. Or we're going to get Wilson as our one in round two. and then we're going to look for like a Judy in round four. And then when we're looking for our third receiver and more and higher, third or fourth, here are the names I'm looking at. And I've highlighted Jordan Addison, very good situation in Minnesota, Cadarius Tony, and these guys are in the early low 70s in their ADP. I still like Sky Moore, but I was also a Tony fan when he came out.

I wrote in the article, actually, I took him over a Mon Ra in our staff dynasty draft, which is not good. But I was all about the talent. And right now he's the frontrunner to be quote unquote their one. They're going to spread it around a little bit. But if this dude can manage to play 14 games, the upside is quite large. Traylon Burke, so it was not a Burke's guy at all last year. But now we're at a discount. And he's feeling a lot better this year.

Massive role on the receiver. were poor Titans. Deontay Johnson. You know, I'm going to go here over George Pickens. I love Pickens, but Deontay is a better player. And he's cheaper. I know he didn't score last year. That's a problem, but he actually got 153 targets. That's pretty good last year.

I think that surprises a lot of people. Actually, 147 last year. He's averaging 153 in his three. but 147 was the second highest total of his career last year. And that came with a rookie and Kenny Pickett. So my man is due to score, by the way. That's a positive regression. Also, 80 overall.

A lot of my guys that flop last year, I'm back. Gabe Davis suffered a high ankle sprained in week one, miss week two. Okay, we lost the game there. Also had a game canceled. Lost the game there. The injury bothered them for two months plus, really struggled. That's where I'm putting a lot of the problems with the drops. That's putting it right there.

They still like them. They're talking them up. Big winner out of the draft. I'm very skeptical of Dalton Kincaid in terms of doing a ton here in year one. So Gabe's locked in. Big year, contract year. and his cost is down 100%, basically. ADP of 40 last year, 80p of 80 this year.

So I'm back. Rounding out this group is Zay Flowers. Love Zay Flowers. He was my favorite pre-draft rookie. I do like Addison a little more this year, but Flowers for the stretch run. I could absolutely see him taking over as the top guy here. Odell obviously has got some problems.

moving down the board here, 100 plus picks here. I'm going to reel off some names. A lot of my favorites here who are in maybe even better situations this year. Certainly Elijah Moore at 106, Darnel Mooney at 123, Sky Moore at 125. We'll see about things in the summer with Sky. Got to see him get some trust from Patrick Mahomes. And then here's a boring one, Adam Thielen, at 135. Moving down further, rounds 13 and beyond now.

some more names. Romeo Dobbs at 145. Some upside here. Rashid Shaheed at 160. Unbelievable showing last year. I know he didn't get a ton of targets, but dude had a first read target share of 25.9, the final four weeks of the season per fantasy points data. How about Marvin Mims at 176? I think Cortland Sutton could be off this roster some way, shape, or form by season's end. Jaden Reed and Green Bay, I love as a prospect, 180 overall. I love, love, love John Mechie, 190 overall. Paris Campbell, it's a tough one with the Giants, but he's their most versatile guy and probably their most talented guy

when you consider size because he's over six foot. Wondale coming off the ACL, Darius Slayton did get paid pretty well, but I'm still not sure they really like him a lot. They tend to bury him on the depth chart. Isaiah Hodgins was good last year. He's solid, but I think Campbell's probably the guy to look at. He finally did stay relatively healthy last year. He actually quietly had the same number of catches as DJ Moore, which is 63.

Tied for 37th the most. Michael Wilson, the rookie out of Stanford, watched him at the Senior Bowl. Very good. If DeAndre Hopkins is off the roster, we're pretty good shape here to deliver an ROI at 21580 p. And then here's another sneaky one at 2.15. Josh Reynolds, actually last year from weeks 2 to 5, 23% of the season, Reynolds was the wide receiver 16 in scoring with 22 grabs for 307 and two touchdowns of 14.0 YPA and a 71% catch rate. Pretty darn good here. So those dudes there, that group, your depth guys.

and, you know, 145 to 215 overall, you notice most of them are young upside guys, but we did throw a couple of boring guys in there. Moving on finally to the tight end plan. It's flexible this year. Travis Kelsey, man, wow. You know, looking at it very closely, I'm very concerned using a top six pick

on a 34-year-old tight end. You know, that's never been done before. but he's a he's a unicorn an outlier and honestly i saw a little drop off but not much it's negligible and i don't have a ton of confidence in in the other first round picks so yeah i will take kelsey this year i'm not going to call him an integral part of my plan though i mean that's a bit much i've got three options here at tight end this year somewhat you know definitively i'm going to go with these three options. Plan one, didn't have this guy on the list last year. He's kind of every other year, but I've been getting it right every other year. Mandrews, Mark Andrews,

down to 32. So as long as we're in the third round, I think he's a good deal. I know they're going to play a lot more 11th personnel, but they will throw it more. And that's Lamar's guy. Todd Monkin there, the new OC. I mean, you could say he's a tight end guy. I mean, look at Brock Bowers last year, last two years at Georgia. Dude's going to be a number one pick next year. Thanks apart to Todd Monkin. If I don't get Manjrews, I'm going to default to plan two.

And this guy might actually be my top target at the position. Also didn't list him last year. Wasn't a part of it. Very proud of myself for that. But I'm in now, Kyle. pits. And again, it's a calculated risk. We're not good at quarterback now at Desmond Ritter, but he'll be better than Marioita. And I do still worry about Arty Smith a little bit. Can he take advantage of Pitts? But there were plenty of plays where Pitts is wide open last year. Mario didn't

get him the ball. I think it'll be a better environment with Bijan now commanding attention. So between Bijan and Drake London, maybe Pitts isn't that just unicorns, like monster that you're staying up late at night worried about and just focusing on all game basically even even though he still gets open so Kyle Pitts this is the year down to 63 six round oh yeah I'll do it all day long dude was a third rounder last year then last but not least if I miss out on those two I'm going to wait a little bit 100 plus picks in and just basically target my two dudes here who I think have the best breakout potential. David Najoku, I don't think he's broken out yet.

I mean, last year was close. He had a similar year in 2011 or 18, sorry. And it was good, not great. He's still the guy. I know they brought in Naken's, but he's going to be the primary tight end receiving threat for Deshaal Watson, who he clicked with late in the year, scored, I believe, two touchdowns with the Sean. So do like Injoku, he's really matured. He's like a team leader now. He's still only 25, 26, 26. He's 20 years old when I talk with him at the combine. It's hard to believe.

20 years old. And then it's a tough one between Injoku and this guy, Chigi Okonkwo. But, you know, we've been all over this when I really dug in to do the projections. I couldn't believe. I was like, oh wow you know this guy really they really need him to step up hell they did last year only tyrie kill and a j brown had a higher yard per route round average in the entire NFL among players with at least 150 routes per fantasy points data so one of the worst receiving cores wide receiving cores i've ever seen a concoe by the way you know very impressive how he did this um in terms of a very good catch rate and also a very good yard per reception. I'm trying to do two things at once here.

Let me call up the stat here because it was like 70% catch rate and like a, well, we'll just pull it up right here. 14.1 yards per reception with a 69.6% catch rate. I know that these are not the end-all stats, but man, that's really good. Caught 32 of 46 targets. So, you know, played all 17 games wasn't really featured until, you know, down the stretch. So we do have him as basically the breakout tight end of the year. Some other guys here that I'll look at, you do need to get probably three tight ends on underdog,

just like you probably need to get three quarterbacks just to protect. yourself. So ideally these guys would be, you know, tight-end twos, but Cole Komet at 134, and I love this one. Ju-Wan Johnson, these are two really high-end tight-end twos. I actually had Kemet as my breakout tight-end last year. I ranked him at tight-end eight. And after four games, my man had eight total points. It was unbelievable. Um, actually no. He had 11. 50, five catches for 56 yards total in four games. I mean, that is abysmal.

Yet he somehow was tight end eight. And I was all about touchdowns. He went from scoring two and zero his first two years to seven. So he's going to need that touchdown love again. But the good news is he does have good chemistry with fields and he will once again be a touchdown guy. Speaking of touchdown guys, how about Joanne Johnson, a 20% touchdown rate the last two years,

11 touchdowns on just 55 grabs. They let Adam Troutman go. They traded him to the Broncos. You do have Taysson Hill here. Maybe you can't count on him as your title one, but you could down the stretch, that's for sure last year. Click with Andy Dalton of all people. But, you know, man, really intriguing dude here.

And now are we have my list of my top. These would be lower-end twos and really nice threes if you go three. Let's go Sam Leporta for the lines at 175. Very good combination of affordability, opportunity, and talent there in Detroit. How about Tyler Conklin? We actually ranked him. I did at tight-in 25 last year. His ADP was tied in 45 and he was tied in 16.

So the analytics guys there, the Jets loved them. and we got wind of that and that helped. We knew it was going to be like their move guy. I could really see Aaron Rogers gravitating to that guy. Jake Ferguson is next 210. I'd say he was a little bit of a winner in the draft. They didn't get a stud tight end. They got Luke Schoonmaker, who I like, but he'll probably need some time.

Ferguson's not a great athlete, but great kid and very good Red Zone guy. So he could score four or five touchdowns this year easily. And then last but not at least, Cade Otten. I thought he was pretty solid last year, still growing a little bit. It's possible that he emerges as a third option in the passing game. So there it is. Here's a couple of teams that I drafted, by the way, pretty much all the target names from various spots. So here's the first 10 rounds from the two-hole.

Jamar Chase, Tony Pollard, Mark Andrews, Jerry Judy, Christian Kirk, Jordan Addison, Cam Acres, Daniel Jones, Alexander Madison, Sky Moore. A little tough drafting at the top of round one, but still in pretty good shape at running back and wide receiver. And that is despite using an early pick on the tight end. Did a little exercise from the six hole. Actually passed on Kelsey, went Steph Diggs, Alave, Mark Andrews, Judy, so wide receiver heavy,

and then just attacked the running back. J.K. Dobbins, Rashad White, David Montgomery. I mean, this is ridiculous that these guys are available this late. Maybe they won't be in a month or two, but they are now. Then I went Daniel Jones, Elijah Moore, and Chigia Conquo. And then last, but not least, picking from the 10 hole, C.D. Lamb, Amon Ra, Najee Harris, Debo Samuel, J.K. Dobbins, Kyle Pitts, Deshaun Watson, David Montgomery, Brian Robinson, Darnel Mooney. Pretty darn good team. Very balanced. Maybe a little light at wide receiver. But as I wrote there in the article, sometimes you can't have it all, like every single thing. Going to have some weaknesses here. There it is.

Wrapping it up now. Thanks for tuning in. That was a look at my very early draft plan, the underdog best ball draft plan, which is going to be a big part of my regular draft plan here that I'll unleash later on here this year, late June, early July. Make sure you stay subscribed.

tell your friends, leave us a good review. Throw me a bone there. And we'll catch you next time here on the Fantasy Points podcast in Hanson's Hints. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.