Fantasy Football Daily - The Process of THE BEAST with Dane Brugler | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: April 21, 2023

With less than a week until the 2023 NFL Draft, Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) welcomes in one of the most respected analysts in the business, Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) of @TheAthletic. The boys discuss Dane's famous THE BEAST prospect guide, with specific analysis on Kayshon Boutte, Jalin Hyatt, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Scott. BRETT WHITEFIELD'S 2023 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT GUIDE IS FREE TO READ WITH A NO-CHARGE LOGIN AT FANTASY POINTS. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome into another episode of On the Clock. I'm your host, Brett Whitefield. And today we are joined by the Beast of All Guests, and that is the author of The Beast himself, Mr. Dane Bruegler from The Athletic. Dane, how are you doing, sir?

I'm good. I appreciate you having me on. It's a fun time. We're under a week until the draft and still feels like there's a lot we don't know. And honestly, I'm okay with that. That's a lot of fun. You know, it's one of the reasons we love the draft is the unpredictable nature of how it's all going to play out on draft night. And you know what?

That's, that's okay. That makes it fun. So it's going to be an interesting next few days in the lead up and then should be a fun three days of the draft. Heck yeah, so I got to ask you. I mean, you spend what, nine months writing the beast? Yeah, about 10 months. Yeah, it's definitely a year. And honestly, it's more than that because I already have a lot of notes for next year's draft guide where, you know,

inadvertently, you're talking to coaches, talking to scouts, you know, you pick up these random nuggets about players that are not even in this draft class yet. And so, you know, you're making these notes or you're watching tape on a player and you can't help but know who's this, who's number 24 there? And then, oh, he's not eligible. Okay, let's make sure we got him down for next year. And so it's definitely a year in the making, but it really gets started around June 1st, you know, laying the groundwork, laying the base of, okay, these are the top seniors, going through, you know, all the top underclassmen, getting early positional rankings. And then obviously the season, or you adjust based off the tape, then you get an all-star season, combine, pro day, workout, all the testing, how that might tweak things a little bit.

So, yeah, it's, it's May. I try to take May for, you know, what I'm going to coach baseball, coach softball, my kids, things like that. But then once we get into June, it's right back into it. Right on. So for those that don't know, the beast is probably the preeminent, I would say, content piece of draft literature you can possibly own. I haven't really dove in a ton myself.

I try to wait to dive in until I'm done with all my write-ups. And I just look at about 10 to 12 guys to write. up here. So I'm hoping this weekend, though, I'm going to get into that pretty good. But yeah, if you haven't checked out the beast, please go to theathletic.com. Dane, do you have a specific, like, subscription thing you can give them? If you go to my Twitter, I got a pinned at the top. Do you use that link? I think we're still running the $2 a month. You know, if you're not interested in a full year, I get it.

You know, try us out for a month. You get all our draft content, sign up for a month, and you get the draft guide included. So it's a pretty good value. Yeah, the athletic is great in general than the draft guide more than pays for your subscription there. All right, Dean, let's jump in a little bit here. I kind of want to pick your brain about your scouting process. I know you put in a lot more work than I would say most guys in the draft space with background information and stuff like that. But talk to me a little bit about when you're watching guys, what your process looks like there.

Yeah, and it's, I try to treat my job like an area scout. So, you know, I'm keeping tabs. on certain players. And throughout the year, like, in a perfect world, I'd wait until the year was over and then, you know, watch guys, you know, watch five, six, seven tapes of a player and then move on. But I just, there's, in terms of only having so much time, I'm watching tape the Sunday after college football games. And so Saturday, I'm watching all the college football action, making notes about

plays I need to go back and revisit Sunday morning when the tape's uploaded. I'm watching the coaches tape and looking at those plays and writing about those guys throughout the year, throughout the fall, writing it on the athletic and tweeting about them and then, you know, making these notes for the draft guide. And then, you know, it's, you know, what you see in September, maybe changes from what you see in October and then November. And, you know, injuries can be involved there. Sometimes guys just get better. So, you know, it's an interesting process. You know, for me, the summer is a big part of it because that's where you set the base. You know, you set expectations for a player based off of what you see in the summer from the previous year, trading notes with scouts and other people that I trust that I've watched these players.

So, you know, it's the summer's a very valuable part of really setting that base. And then that's, you know, you go into the season with certain expectations. And then, you know, either players meet those or don't and you figure out why. some guys get better some guys don't and you know it's uh it's it's definitely a process it's something that uh you know in a perfect world i you know i'd be able to live in a vacuum and at the end of the year watch all these guys and write them up and it but in order to see thousands of thousands of players because that's over the course of a year i'm watching um you know probably over i mean i looked at my notes and i've got notes for over 3,500 players and you know in order to do that it just

have to use the full 12-month schedule or our 12-month calendar. So that's just kind of how it works out. Heck, yeah. So when you start stacking up your position boards, your rankings inside of a position, do you have like a numeric scoring system you use? Or is this like more gut? Like you've been doing this long enough to know like what kind of traits

you're looking for in a player to kind of stack them? Yeah, I mean, I've got my own personal. And this is something I've, you know, grappled with. Because I think ideally I would come up. up with the grading system that I would include it. Because the way I do it is by rounds, like in the draft guide. And that's not an ideal way to do it.

You know, because saying a guy is a third round pick, there's a lot more that goes into that. You know, and that's one of the just toughest part it's about doing this overall is just, you know, because we're not scouting for a specific scheme, a specific culture, a specific building. we're scouting in very general terms. And so that could be a difficult part of this because a third round pick for this team might be a fifth round pick for another team. A guy might not even be on the board for another team because it just doesn't fit what they want. So, you know, that's always tough to do from a general perspective.

But yeah, I do have my own internal son of system. And I kind of leave it up to the readers and say, you know, hey, do you guys want to keep it like this? We're just kind of keep it as simple as possible where, you know, ranking these guys by round. or do we want to start implementing the scoring system? Like if I give a guy at 6.24, like, is that you going to be too confusing? And so, but the readers want the rounds, which, again, is not an ideal way to do it. But, you know, I get it for simplicity purposes. I keep doing it as long as that's what the readers want.

Yeah, it helps them paint context for when their team drafts a player. Like, oh, cool, Dane thought this guy was a second round pick. We got to be a third. That's a value, you know. Right, right, right. I get that for sure. Let's pivot to some specific players I want to ask you about. This is kind of a random assortment of guys.

I technically work for a fantasy company, even though my podcast is more NFL driven. So I want to ask you about a couple receivers specifically. Kishon Boutte, Dane, I know you mentioned in the beast about his medicals, or his off-field stuff, right? Is there medicals there, too, that teams are concerned about? We haven't heard a lot about this, but it seems like with the way he tested, maybe there is. Yeah, he did not test to a level, I think a lot of people thought, including myself. You know, he's, he tested like a below average athlete. You know, when you're a receiver and you're under a 30-inch vert, that's not a good sign.

And the fact that he did not retest at the pro day, that's like one of the big values of my draft guide. It's something I'm very proud of is having all the pro day data in there for almost, 1900 players. So, you know, you can, you can see, okay, he was 195 at the combine. Then he's 197 at the pro day. And then, okay, he did the three cone, but he didn't do anything else. And I try to give reasoning for that. Maybe it was an injury. Maybe it was. And I'm going by what I get from NFL teams. And so according to this, Bouttie, by choice, only did the three cone. He stood on his 4-5-0. He stood on his 29-inch vertical. And, you know, watching him on tape, you didn't see a below average athlete.

And so that was, that was interesting. You know, the off-field stuff is definitely going to be a big talking point when you, when you teams are in the war room figuring out where Bouti fits on their board. He did have, you know, the ankle was a big issue. He had multiple surgeries. You know, he had an initial surgery that didn't heal correctly. And he had another one. I have not, that has not come up in terms of.

the lingering injuries were worried about that. It's been more about just a maturity. You know, needs to learn how to be a professional, that type of thing. And a lot of scouts think he's a slot only. And, you know, he's a little bit of a boomer best, boomer bust element to him because you can you really trust them? And a lot of teams are trying to figure that part out. Right on.

Yeah. So his tape for me, like I felt like this past season was not his best tape. I feel like I could notice maybe a lack of Twitter. compared to some of the other season. Did you feel the same way? Oh, yeah. I mean, coming into the year, he was my top receiver. I mean, he was, you know, like Jackson's bit the jig, but I liked that of Ohio State,

but, you know, he's a certain type of receiver. Boutet actually showed some of the things, him and Quentin Johnston, coming into this year were the two guys that you thought, if things fall correctly, they could be legitimate wide receiver one type of guys at the next level. Now, I don't think either of those guys met the expectations of what we thought could be possible. Booty more so in terms of this. You just don't know where you're getting. Week in, week out, play and play out.

Snap in, snap out. You just weren't sure what you're getting from this guy. And that's a huge red flag and something that, yeah, I mean, I agree with you. I think that, you know, for going back to his freshman year even, when you're watching and seeing him kind of emerge on the scene. okay, this is the next guy. This is the next Jamar Chase, next guy in the pipeline, Justin Jefferson, LSU's next receiver. Did he peak as a freshman?

I mean, I don't know, but I haven't seen the same guy, especially this past year that we saw flash all over the place as a true freshman in 2020. Right on. Another guy I want to ask you about is, I think you're wide receiver three, and that's Jalen Hyatt from Tennessee. This is a guy, so I've been a little more bullish on him than most people in the community. I think a lot of people are throwing the baby out with the bathwater because the Tennessee offense is so wonky and Hyatt didn't necessarily have to work very hard for some of the production he got. I do want to pick your brain on him, though.

Why number three for you? What do you see in the Hyatt that gives you the confidence to put him that high? You know, I think we need to add context to any wide receiver conversation because we rank all these guys together in the same bucket of wide receivers. But they're all different. They all offer something different with the strengths of their game. You know, there's certain positions within wide receivers. X, Y, Z, different teams at different variations of, you know, how they want to deploy their receivers. And a guy like Jalen Hyatt offers a very specific skill set.

So if you're looking for more of an underneath player, more of a well-rounded receiver, Jalen Hyatt's not for you. And that's okay. But if you are looking for a potential home run threat, an explosive vertical element to your offense, that Jalen Hyatt, there's a lot there. I mean, you think about what Ted Ginn was offering for offenses for a lot of years there. You know, and a guy like Jalen Hyatt, even though he is under 180 pounds, you know, it's coming from an offense where it was a lot of very simplistic routes, linear routes. When you have, when you do two things above average, and that's vertical speed and then ball tracking, I can use that.

I mean, and again, not for every offense, not every, it's not going to fit what every team needs, but if I'm the chiefs, if I'm, you know, the Saints, if I'm a team that likes to push those vertical routes, Jalen Hyatt is going to be a great fit somewhere in those top 40 picks. And so again, this goes back to what I was saying about, you know, we're not scouting for a specific team or scheme or anything like that. It's trying to do it very generalized. And so it's hard to rank a Jalen Hyatt in the same breath as a. Smith and Jigba because they're two very, they play almost two different positions. So, you know, it's, I think it's important to understand the strengths of these guys and how

they project at the next level. It's not, they're not all very similar. For sure. I'm glad you mentioned that with the receivers and how every team is going to view these guys differently. I know for myself, like I use a numeric scoring system. Quentin Johnson and Jordan Addison graded very similarly, but they're not similar players at all. Right. Right. And so people ask, well, who do you actually like more? and it's well, tell me what team is drafting and then I can make that decision. But I don't. That's it. Yeah.

And there's a lot of debate about, you know, those top four tight ends. You know, how do how should they be stacked? They're all different. They all, you know, Michael Mayer is different than what he gives you than Dalton Kincaid, then what Darnall Washington gives you, then Luke Musgrave gives you. So, I mean, I don't, I would not be surprised. Any order of those four could be drafted. You know, Musgrave could be the first tight end drafted.

wouldn't be surprised, you know, because he offers something a little bit different than the other guys. And so it just depends on what your offense wants and, you know, what your offense wants to be, you know, different teams have different priorities for certain positions and what they want out of that position. So, you know, it's the order of these tight ends and the way they come off the board, I think people need to keep an open mind because it's, they're all, all these guys are different. And it's less about who's the best. And it's more about what's the best fit. Absolutely. All right. Let's pivot to the running. back really quick. Bejohn Robinson, obviously, the dude here. People throw around the term

generational talent all over the place. I don't even know what that means. I mean, we seem to have a generational talent every other year. And so it kind of takes away from the term. But yeah, he's a good player, really good player. That's all I know. Yeah, very short generations. Right, right. Exactly. So I mean, it's, I, it's, say, Sequin Berkeley was a quote unquote, generational running back. So, you know, I guess we, we got to a new generation. already. So, you know, it's, I don't like that term, but yeah, he's a, he's a really, really good player.

Yeah, I, let me ask you, the moment he's drafted, let's just say he goes, let's say he goes 16 of the commanders. The moment he's drafted, is he a top 10 back in the NFL? Yes. For me, he is, yeah. I agree. I agree with you. And I would even go higher if it goes to a team like the Eagles.

You know, if I'm, if I'm drafted for the Eagles, I take him a 10. wouldn't look back and I'd feel great about it because in that scheme with that offense, I mean, he might be a top five back the moment he's drafted in the NFL. And so, yeah, you're paying him decent money, not, not, you know, roster changing money at the 10th overall pick, but you're paying a decent money, but he's going to earn it because I think you feel comfortable with him being, you know, the impact that he's going to bring and the fact that he's already going to be one of the better players of his position pretty quickly into his NFL career. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I'm,

So I spent seven years at PFF. I'm firmly entrenched in the RBSs don't matter camp, you know. But I recognize the value with a guy like Bijan even at 10. And man, I tell you what, I'd much rather get Bejon, the best five years of his career on a rookie deal than pay a guy a second contract. That's it. There's a big difference between drafting a running back high and the second contract. These are two separate discussions. And we have not seen many second contracts work out.

And I think that there is a lot behind that. I'm all for having more of a discussion about that. But I think that we've kind of jumbled it together where you can't pay a running back. You also can't draft one early. And I think that's a little short-sighted. If you look around the league at all the studs, most of them were pretty high draft picks, first or second-round picks. There's obviously exceptions to the rule. But have you heard anything on Bejan?

I know you're, you know, you're not breaking news like Ian Rappap Report necessarily, but I'm sure you're very well plugged in. Have you heard anything about where he might go? Do you think 10 to the Eagles is a realistic possibility? You know what? It goes against what they do. They have not drafted a running back since the mid-80s in the first round. So, you know, it's not something this organization does.

It's not something Howie Roseman does. But he has been, he has visited two teams, the Eagles and the Bucks. And, you know, the bucks are interesting because, you know, no more Leonard Fournett. You know, we feel like they're okay, you know, with what they have right now. But adding a guy like Bjean Robinson, whoever's that quarterback, it's going to make that offense look a little bit better. And so, you know, that's an interesting fit. The Eagles, I would be surprised if they draft them at 10 just because of their hit the history, the fact that it's just the, if we're going to put a percentage on it, it's much more likely they go offensive line, defensive line with that 10th pick. but they trade back five spots.

Then it becomes, I think, a much greater possibility. I think the percentages of Bejan Robinson be in that pick increases substantially if the Eagles are able to trade back. So, you know, there's a lot of teams in the first round where I don't think he's getting by. You know, if he makes it all the way to the 20s, Cowboys are drafted them like that. Easy. It doesn't matter who else on the board, the Cowboys will draft Vijer Robinson at 26. But I don't see any way how he's making it that far. You know, it's just there's too many other potential landing spots of commanders, the chargers.

There are too many other potential landing spots. Yeah, the Bucks where he's just too good to fall that far. So it'll be interesting to see where he does come off the board. Yeah, for sure. It seems like that range of like 10 to 19 is probably his sweet spot. Even like 18 of the Lions, I know they just signed Montgomery, but like it's their identity. It's their culture. It's like it just seems like that's what they'd want to do.

And Bejohn does give you a lot more in the past game. than a guy like Monty does as well. Right. All right, real quick, before we let you go, I know you have a hard out. I wanted to ask you one final question. What, if there was one receiver kind of projected to go day two somewhere

that you think has the best chance to be a dude in the NFL, who would that be? I got to roll with my guy, Tyler Scott. Oh, let's go. This is a guy that, you know, the moment he declared back in January, I tweeted a clip of, a clip from,

of his and said, just wait to you guys, watch this guy because he is so much fun. Tyler Lockett Combs get thrown out every year and it's, you know, too much and they never live up to it. But Tyler Scott, I tell you, man, I kept getting Tyler Lockett vibes watching him. He's undersized, 5'10, just around 180 pounds, but the speed's outstanding. And, you know, when you realize that this guy has not been playing wide receiver very long, but you wouldn't guess that by watching his tape. The way he runs his routes, by the way, you know, the ball skills, you wouldn't know that he was a.

a high school running back and an option offense. I asked them straight up. How many catches do you think you had in high school? He said, maybe 10. So this is not a guy that has been, you know, a full-fledged wide receiver most of his life. I mean, really not since he three years ago, when he got to Cincinnati moved to the position.

And the last two years has really, really developed well. And, you know, he's a guy that is a big play threat. I mean, he's a three-level guy, big play threat. 14 touchdown catches the last two years. those 14 touchdown catches, he is averaging 45 yards per touchdown catch. It's just bananas. So this guy has a lot of ability. Even with Desmond Ritter not there, you know, his production, I mean, he really was the offense for Cincinnati this year.

So I'm a big fan of his. To me, he's a top 50 player. I don't think he'll go that high. We'll see. I think he'll go somewhere in that 50 to 75, maybe 50 to 80 range. but I think he'll end up out playing that draft spot because the speed, the ball skills, just the way he's ascending. And it feels like he's not close to his ceiling.

Yeah. So about five minutes before we started recording here, Dane, my guy's article just dropped on FantasyPoint.com. And he's in that article. He's my 50-second player on my board. Love it. I love him. He is, I think he's got the best developed vertical skill set in the class.

Yeah. And it's not just, I mean, yes, he ran a fourth. three seven on his pro day, but it's not just that. He understands how to throttle that speed. You know, he, whether, you know, comebacks, digs, he can, you know, push receiver or push corners off the route, you know, with that, with that speed. So you have to respect the vertical element of his game, but he can also play underneath. So, yeah, there's a lot of Tyler Scott that, man, the more I watched him, I just kept getting excited about what this guy is and then what he could continue to grow into. So I'll be excited to see where he ends up, you know, where,

What's the fit? What offenses you go into? That'll be a lot of fun to see. Gun to your head, Jalen Hyatt at Pick 21 or Tyler Scott in the second round? Oh, second round. Yeah, I would much rather have Scott that value. I mean, I think, you know, on my top 100, Tyler Scott's 48, Jalen Hyatt is like 31. So I feel like the value of what I'm getting with Tyler Scott is better than the value that I'd get with Hyatt at that point.

Awesome. I agree. That's going to do it. We got to get out of here. Thank you guys so much for listening. You can find Dane on Twitter at DP Brugler. He is the author of The Beast. Make sure you check that out at theathletic.com. Dane, thank you so much. Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Matt. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.