Fantasy Football Daily - The Two-Point Stance | Diggs Trade and Prop Bets with Tom Brolley

Episode Date: April 4, 2024

The fantasy football community was shocked when the Buffalo Bills traded superstar WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Our Two-Point Stance podcast looks at the Diggs trade from all angles. Is C.J. Stroud a top five fantasy QB now? How high are we drafting Dalton Kincaid? Which NFL Draft prospect should the #BillsMafia hope to land? Plus, NFL team win totals are out. Our Director of Betting, Tom Brolley, joins and gives you his best bets for the 2024 season. 3:00 Diggs 6:30 Dolan’s Diggs Take 14:00 Joe Mixon’s Value 16:00 James Cook to the Moon? 29:30 Chiefs win total 33:00 Lions win total 37:30 Cowboys win total 41:00 Falcons win total 43:30 Jets win total 47:00 Browns win total --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sales. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27th. Conditions apply, details online. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle,

from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. All across the Fantasy Universe. welcome one and all to the two-point stance powered by fantasy points.com. I'm your host, Brian Drake. What a great show we've got for you today, folks. We're going to be doing NFL win totals over and under, so get your betting hats on. And we're also, of course, going to dig into the big Stefan digs to Houston trade with our betting lead over at fantasy points.com. Mr. Tom Brawley, Joe Dolan will be along with me momentarily, but I got to start things, folks, with the biggest thing we're doing at the site right now. and it's the prospect guide. Brett Whitefield has rolled this out. It is live and it is free at FantasyPoints.com. Our draft guru, Mr. Whitefield, spent hundreds and hundreds of hours cultivating this rookie manifesto to help you guys, our listeners, be the most prepared when it comes to your rookie drafts, your prep for next fantasy redraft season.

It's all there. It's all live again. It's all free. It includes profiles on every position. Brett's big board, 24. rookie rankings and a link to Brett's on the clock draft series podcast, which is a home run. I've listened to several of those. Again, folks, 100% free. Access it right now. Go over to FantasyPoint.com. Check it out.

You'll sure be glad you did. Let's bring in the managing editor of FantasyPoints.com. He edited the damn guide. Mr. Joe Dolan, what's up, brother? How you been? Every single prospect that Brett's done so far. And what we have up so far is basically, we, we are fantasy football website.

So Brett's focus so far has been on the skill position players. He still has a few to go, but then he's going to get into the offensive linemen, defensive linemen. So he scouted them. He's had his notes. He just has to write up the profiles. But it's a living,

breathing document that I hope everybody enjoys. Drake's been a while. I think since we last talked, I think both of us have made an excursion to Disney World. Yours was with your family. I went with my wife when she was at a conference. It was, let me tell you something, man, you better, you better be prepared to have a lighter wallet after you go there. Oh, man, it was, and we just went for one day and it was like super expensive.

Then I went to the Arnold Palmer invitational, but it's been good. Let's talk. Look, I was trying to lay down for a nap yesterday, and it wasn't feeling great. And the NFL always has a way of what, like, just kind of preventing you from doing things when the NFL is your job. and we got the big news about Mr. Diggs, who just a few hours before, I guess the trade was chirping again on Twitter, you know, about how Josh Allen and not like,

it wasn't him saying this. It was, I guess, responding to somebody on Twitter, well, I don't know if Josh needs Stefan as much as Stefan needs Josh or something. And then Diggs responds, we'll see. And, well, now we will see, Mr. Drake. Yeah, Stefan Diggs traded the Houston Texans. Buffalo sends Diggs down south along with a 2024. sixth and a 25 fifth rounder.

They collect a second rounder back to Buffalo in 2025. They're going to eat 31 million in dead money, the six largest dead cap hit ever, the largest for a non-quarterback. So we're going to, we talked about the product guide. Let's bring in our guest, Mr. Tom Brawley. I think Buffalo, Tom, Tom, might be in the market for a wide receiver after this. We're kind of, we'll dig into each side of it. but Tom, your initial reaction to Buffalo shipping their ace wide receiver to an AFC competitor.

Yeah, that was kind of a little bit of the most surprising part. I mean, the Texans are an up-and-coming team. Obviously, they've been very active in free agency, bolstering the team that already went to the division, divisional round last year. So that just tells you just how much the bills won it digs out of town. And they were willing to send them to another AFC contender. Yeah. And I've just started to dig into the draft props. It looks like the bills are essentially locked into drafting a receiver in the first round,

at least with their first pick. They went, I believe they were sitting around like minus 120 to draft a wide receiver in the first round. Now they're sitting like in that minus 250 to minus 300 range. So basically like a 70, 75% chance that they're going to draft a wide receiver. And I wouldn't be surprised if that rises even more. So a bit of a surprising move, but Texans, we see this, we've seen this recently, these quarterbacks on these rookie contracts. These teams are going all in while they have that quarterback on the cheap contract.

And we've seen it on the opposite side recently here with Patrick Mahomes when they traded Tyreekill. These teams need to restructure and they're kind of trusting their quarterbacks that have become established. Hey, we can, you know, Josh Allen, now you. you got to do what Patrick Mahomes did, make these receivers, these lesser receivers, you've got to lift everybody else up. So it's kind of funny how this cycle has really started to develop over the last couple of years. But these teams going all in on rookie, you know, when they have a rookie quarterbacks and maybe lightning the books whenever they have to start paying for these rookie quarterbacks in the future.

Joe, we now see that Stefan Diggs is in Houston. He's going to join Nico Collins and Tank Dell. and Joe Mixon, by the way, is down there as the new running back for the Houston Texans. So let's spin this forward to fantasy. Nico Collins had a higher ADP or lower, if you want to go that route, then Stefan Diggs did. Coming off the board, I mean, it's current early ADP, but Stefan Diggs was coming off the board at 22.

Nico Collins was an early second rounder coming off at 15, which probably is too high for Nico Collins. little bit. So let's say all three of these guys are here in Houston. What's your early fantasy outlook for these guys? The early fantasy outlook is, I think this is going to be the common take. C.J. Stroud up all three of these receivers down. And I think the big question becomes, who is the real Stefan Diggs?

Let's look at the evidence. The Buffalo Bills, as Tom alluded to, just paid $30 million to get rid of him. Okay. So now look, that might not just be on field stuff. Maybe the on field stuff is the smaller part of that equation, but they wanted him gone. And then Brett Whitefield dug into the numbers. 91 players ran at least 200 routes from week 8 onward last year. Stefan did so those 91 players was 52nd in yards per route run and 50 second in first downs per route run,

despite commanding a number one receiver target share. He was top 12 in target share. Before that, from weeks one through seven, he was fourth in yards per outrun and sixth in first downs per outrun. So there was a very evident and clear decline in Stefan Diggs's tape and Stefan Diggs's efficiency. That happened to coincide with the Buffalo Bills firing Ken Dorsey and hiring Joe Brady. So you have this. Look, and we all watch the playoffs, okay? We all watch Stefan Diggs drop that perfectly thrown ball against Kansas City that would have set up Buffalo to

tie or go ahead in that playoff game. But I also saw him drop screen passes, drop quick slants, that the play, you could see it with your own two eyes, you don't need to be a tape guru, to see that Stefan Diggs' play dropped off. But the fact that it coincided with Joe Brady getting promoted, there was no real reported injury. It's really a tough onion to peel all the layers back here. And maybe he had checked out mentally.

and maybe that's the one reason Buffalo one of them gone. Nonetheless, there was a clear decline in production. He's an older player and his team on which, by the way, he was one of only two wide receivers on the roster or was even caught a pass from Josh Allen. The other being Khalil Shakir. Shakir is the only one now who has ever caught a pass from Josh Allen. The team paid $30 million to get rid of him.

So this is a really hard breakdown for me. But on the other hand, Stefan Diggs doesn't need to be Alpha Stefan Diggs, Minneapolis Miracle, Stefan Diggs, for this trade to work out for Houston because Houston already has two other really good receivers. They have a reliable tight end in Dalton Schultz. They brought in Joe Mixin, who is going to continue to face light boxes just as he did in Cincinnati. The question I have is if Stefan Diggs doesn't need to be an alpha, which he clearly does not in Houston. Is he going to be okay with not being an alpha in Houston?

because he doesn't need to be, and I don't think he will be with the Texan. Yeah, it's an interesting fit as well. I think it kind of is a great fit. You think about Tank Dell as kind of the vertical threat in this offense. You know, Nico Collins is dominant in the middle of the field in that, you know, 10 to 20 yard range. And then Stefan Diggs can win, you know, put them out in the perimeter, win quickly, win in the short underneath areas. You know, he's the route running technician now for CJ Stry.

crowd. So just a fantastic group of receivers for him. I'll say even Joe, back to 2022, if you look back at his game logs then, it wasn't as precipitous as it was in 2023, but Diggs did not play as well in the second half of that season as well. So I don't know if that's an age thing. I don't know if that's playing out in the cold in Buffalo, you know, he gets to go down to Houston and gets to play in air-conditioned, you know, dome in Houston, you know, playing in the AFC South. So I'm not going to have to deal with weather factors. So, but it is interesting that, you know, the last two years, it's, we've seen drop-offs in the second half of the year for Diggs. So who do we think?

I still think Diggs will be the target share leader here, but I still think Niko Collins is the guy. I want more than these other two. I want to see how ADP shake out. But here's what my view is going to be. I think it's going to be Collins Diggs Dell ADP of the three. Remember, Ken Dells coming off a serious injury. He's coming off a serious injury. So we have to factor that in.

Collins Diggs Dell ADP, I think my preference for fantasy factoring in cost will be Collins Dell did. Yeah, I think I might be Dell. I mean, we'll see how close they all are. I think we saw it last year. We saw Noah Brown step into the line. You know, CJ Stroud does not discriminate. He's going to throw it to whoever's open.

All three of these guys are going to be capable of going nuclear and having these huge weeks for best ball and for, you know, for redraft leagues as well. So we'll see how it kind of shakes. I still think Diggs will probably be the target share leader. Collins will probably be the overall fantasy points leader. but I think all three of these guys are going to really be bunched up. And we'll see how it shakes out in ADP,

but I kind of have a feeling all three of these guys are going to be in that, like, third round to fifth round range. Like, it's going to be fascinating. You know who I think might be the biggest beneficiary of all this? And everyone's goes, oh, it's CJ Stroud. No, no, no. It's Joe Mixon. Oh, yeah.

I was going to say that. Yep. Joe Mixon now comes onto a team who is going to have a lot of second half leads. We would assume we're going to get into their win. totals here in a few minutes. And they're going to be in the red zone a ton. You could see a lot of pass interferences in the end zone putting the ball down at the one two yard line and having him run them in closing out games. And there's going to be no team that's more overhyped for fantasy than the Houston Texans this year. So is this changing your guy's opinion at all of where you might

want to draft C.J. Stroud or is he going to be so overhyped? I think I heard today's was a QB6. so I can pull up the current underdog ADP, see where he's going off the board. But are you going to tread right now? Are you going to reach any higher for that on Stroud? Let's see here. I don't know if I can't. He still does not have that element of rushing.

We haven't seen. He only really did it in that Georgia game in the fantasy, in the college football playoffs. Didn't really run last year. It's always going to cap, you know, his upside. But I will say the one thing, we were yelling at Bobby Slow, for a lot of last season.

Like throw the ball more. You got a stud here. Why are we trying to establish the run with Damian Pierce and Devin Singletary? So I think at least this shows that they're going to lean heavily into C.J. Stroud. Obviously, he's going to be throwing it a lot more. But I just, the rushing, there's just no upside with rushing.

So I don't know if he cracks, you know, that Lamar Jackson, you know, that kind of tier there. But maybe he's drafted right there with Patrick Mahomes now. So a couple things with Joe Mixon, by the way. Yeah, I think he's going to get past Anthony Richardson and ADP, Tom. I think that's fair. Joe Mixen, and this is basically ADP from yesterday, so not have any time at all to factor in the trade with digs.

Joe Mix and RB 16. Well, I think this is notable. First and foremost, he wasn't going to see stacked boxes anyway in this Houston offense. He didn't in Cincinnati very often. since a hundred with a hundred plus overall rushing attempts this is from our guy Nick Spinole at F ball underscore insights on Twitter Mixin was second worst in the NFL last year

with an explosive runs on heavy boxes against eight or more only Tyler Alger was worse Joe Mixon's not going to see eight man boxes in this offense now he isn't like a huge success rate guy even against lighter boxes but he's going to see a lot of light boxes in this offense. So Joe Mixen can be one of those guys. If you start your draft, let's say, you draft three wide receivers, maybe a quarterback or a tight end, somebody you could start

with in the fourth or fifth round as your RB1 and say, I don't love it, but he's in a great offense, could have some touchdowns. I think Joe Mixon's going to be a beneficiary here for sure. Yeah, a lot more scoring opportunities. Do they have a, do they have a receiving back here? I, you know, Damien Pierce isn't that guy. Jamie Pierce is a trade candidate, man. They don't have anybody that's going to catch the ball either. So, you know, right now mixing the RB 60, he should be inside the top 12, in my opinion, even though he is a bit of a declining player. But all you have to do is look at, you know, what they, you know, they traded for him.

They don't have anybody else in this backfield. He's going to get used. That's why they went out and got him. He's, you know, been on the field. He's been able to stay healthy. And I think he's, I think he's a little undervalued right now. He's going to play a lot of snaps. Yes, he is.

You guys talk about running back. and being maybe a little undervalued. Let's spin this around to the Buffalo Bills and talk about James Cook. Weeks 1 through 10, he averaged 12 rushing attempts per game, 12 PPR points. Talk about that Joe Brady switched offensive coordinator weeks 11 through 18.

Now he's averaging nearly 17 rushes a game. He's averaging over 16 fantasy points per game. Is James Cook now a guy that needs to be on our radar, move him up a round or so because let's face it, guys, they're going to have another rookie wide receiver on the outside. I doubt they trade for any one of significance. But it's Dalton Kincaid, it's Curtis Samuel, it's Khalil Shakir, and it's James Cook.

And James Cook is going to be, dare I say, a workhorse three down back in an offense that needs weapons. So like we can't overlook James Cook. We've got to focus in on him and say, James Cook is a guy we should be targeting, maybe in the first three rounds of a fantasy draft. What do you guys think? I still, it's the touchdown capability.

I mean, he just does not, you know, Josh Allen takes a lot of those opportunities. Even, even I just like him to get more involved in the passing game, just a little bit more. It was pretty good last year, you know, 44 catches for 445. But it all comes back to that touchdown upside. I just don't know if it's there with Josh Allen, stealing so many touchdowns.

going to be the QB1 again this year. I don't know if he can get pushed much higher. You have to score. If you're a running back, you have to score. We want backs that can catch the ball. But at the end of the day, we need our backs to score touchdowns. And he just does not do enough of that. I don't know if he can get pushed much higher than he really is right now.

Yeah, he's already 13. He's going in the fourth round, right behind Rashad, like the pick behind Rashad White. I wouldn't be surprised if he moves past Rashad White. I don't know if he's going to move past. I don't know if he's going to move past. Derek Henry, who's RB 11. I think Derek Henry's just in a perfect spot. E.T.N's RB10.

So I'm already, you already pick through these running backs and I'm like, oh, there's some warts there, man. DuPont H.N. is RB8. Like, they just brought Brahim, Rahim. Moester, you know? So, um, now, Cook, I think is going to,

I think that you're going to trust them to be a workhorse. This is going to sound like a cop out here, Drake. We're going to give some analysis, but this is, this is going to be dictated by the draft man. Like, What players are they going to draft? I think they're drafting two receivers. I wonder if you could get a special prop bet on the bills to draft receivers with their first two picks.

What would the odds be on that? But Dalton Kincaid is probably the guy we can most analyze here. Heading into this trade, he was coming off the board, sixth round, tight end six, behind Kyle Pitts, who was tight end five. He was a full round behind Mark Andrews. Does he move up above Mark Andrews into the Trey McBride, tight end three kind of area? It's Loporta. In terms of ADP right now, it's Loporta, tier drop to Kelsey, mini tier drop to McBride, mini tier drop to Andrews.

I think Kincaid probably moves into that tight end three. Like I think there's an opportunity for him in the next week to move past Trey McBride to be the tight end three. I'm not sure if that's prudent or not. but right now he's by far the most talented pass catcher on this team. This receiving core, holy crap. We talked about that they have to draft a wide receiver, but I mean,

we don't even have, you know, Curtis Samuel was a three wide receiver set guy for the commanders, Khalil Shakir. He's the best receiver on this team. I know Matt Harmon was excited about that signing. Oh, I like the signing, but, you know, he was a guy that when they were in, you know,

two wide receiver sets last year wasn't even on the field. It was Jahan Thawin' Ter McClorn and Kalil Shakir was the same way. this is this is a group that does not even have a definitely not a true number one wide receiver not even a true number two wide receiver right now so I get the love for Dalton Kincaid here I mean that's why we love Mark Andrews so much in that Baltimore offense

because they haven't really had a number one wide receiver all these years and he's been a major beneficiary area of that and Dalton Kincaid could see a very similar situation here with these, you know, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakira's top two, you know,

target, you know, hogs right now. So, yeah, I'm with you. That's, Kincaid has got to be,

at least in that top four, and he's going to push Andrews for the tight end three. But the debate is this, right? Do that, does Buffalo State put and end up with like 80 Mitchell or Xavier Leggett or Ricky Pearsall or throw in one of the 947 receivers in this draft? or Drake does Buffalo trade up to get Roma Dunzei and Relique neighbors?

And I think that's part of the reason. Like, as good as this receiver class is, there's three guys who are really considered kind of alphas, right? Neighbors, Adunzei, and Marvin Harrison. Buffalo would have to make a massive jump to get those guys. I don't know if that's in the cards. They essentially have to move up 20 to 25 spots to get one of those guys. And if they've signaled that they're going to do a mini rebuild here,

I don't know if that's going to happen. And then in that case, do you expect a Ricky Pearsall to come in and be your number one receiver as a rookie anyway? So I think you have to kind of play the odds here. And the odds, even though Buffalo is drafting two receivers at least, the odds say Dalton Kincaid's going to come into this season as their most accomplished past guy. And remember, Buffalo lost both their top receivers now. Gabe Davis is out the door and obviously Stefan Diggs. So we'll see. Buffalo's got some other issues there.

You know, they got to address maybe center. You know, they lost both starting safeties and Trey White is out the door. So a lot of new additions could be coming to Buffalo. Yeah. Do they have the key ability to play four picks? Yeah. Yeah. It's not like they have a whole, they have a ton of picks on day three,

but I don't know if they necessarily have the amuse. Yeah, exactly. I don't know if they have the kind of ammunition to get up into that top 10 to get one of those true number one wide receivers. I just don't see it happening. So I think they're just going to have to, this is going to be a little bit of a slow build here. They're going to try to piece it together at wide receiver. And Josh Allen moved down, by the way.

He's QB1 and he's QB1 by far. Like he's, his ADP's like 24. Jalen Hertz is QB2 at 36. So that's an entire round difference between. I think you're going to see him. He's going to have a Jalen Hurts type year. It's just going to be Josh Allen, put the Superman cape on, go out there and run your ass off.

Scores 12 rushing touchdowns. And 12-15 rushing touchdowns for Josh Allen. Boy, oh, boy. Yeah, it's not the best situation. I do think his ADP will drop a little bit. But, yeah, I don't see him. He'll still be selected tail end of that second round or somewhere in that third round. I don't see it slipping too much.

Well, what we came here to talk about initially, guys, was NFL win totals. And Tom handles all our betting and props over at fantasy points.com. He put out a really fun article on the opening line for, NFL win totals. Go to fantasy points.com. Check that out. Tom is, of course, at Tom Brawley on Twitter. Joe's at FG underscore Dolan. I'm at Drake Fantasy. Make sure you give us a follow unless you're a porn bot or maybe even if you are. Sometimes I got downtime. I can, you know, find things to click. So let's talk about these teams. The Buffalo Bills, Tom, they have a win total prop right now set at 10 and a half. That is minus 145. Last year, of course, they were 11 and 6, won the NFC or

excuse me, the AFC East with this news, with all of the subtractions from that Buffalo team. How profitable or how do you feel putting a bet down that the bills can go over 10 and a half and get to 11 like they did a year ago? Yeah, I was actually looking at the under on this. It was at plus 120 initially last week before the digs trade. And I was seriously considering it. The line has moved, at least Draft Kings has moved it to a flat minus 1.1. 120 on both sides.

I guess they're a little scared. Every other line is, you know, minus 110 juiced on both sides. You know, they're only taking 20 cents of juice. They're taking 40 cents of juice on the bills win total prop right now. But it has moved significantly since the digs trade and for good reason as we, as we just laid out here. But I was looking at the under here. I think, you know, the AFC East overall is going to be a little bit stronger here. We have New York Jets have certainly loaded.

it up, gotten some key pieces this off season. I think the New England Patriots will be a little bit better this year. They'll get some a little healthier with Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon back. And they'll get some competent quarterback play, hopefully, from, you know, whoever they draft in second overall and Jacoby Brissette. So I was already kind of looking at the Buffalo Bills under. And, I mean, they have taken loss after loss. They're just, they're just rebuilding here.

They're getting their books in order. Yeah, this is the only way I can look for this one is under 10.5. I know it's a little difficult. Sean McDermott over the years has been money in the bank ever since he took over. I think he's 5 and 1 towards his win total. So up over the total. But I just can't. I can't do it this year.

I'm looking towards the under with the bills. Did you mention Tom that the bill's unique games this year? Yeah, that is a little key piece I have in the article. Go ahead, Joe. At Baltimore, at Detroit, home against Kansas City. So those are three, I mean, Kansas City is the toughest of those games. You get it at home. But on the other hand, these other two tough games, you've got to go on the road at Baltimore and at Detroit.

Tough schedule. Miami, New England's a patsy. New England's going to be a pushover. They're going to finish last in that division. But presuming Aaron Rogers' body parts don't explode on national television again, you can make the argument Miami and New York are better teams. in Buffalo right now. So they have a tough divisional schedule. They've got really tough, unique games. So yeah, look, there's a reason that the, there's a reason the juice here

is moving towards the under here on the Buffalo Bills after the step on big straight. Let's talk about the other team involved in this trade, the Houston Texans, and they're going to be a very trendy pick. No matter who you talk to this offseason, their win total, and I'm sure it'll change, but check your books when you're listening to this podcast. Is it nine and a half as of Tom's writing this article. They were 10 and 7 last year. They're unique games. Listen to these.

You want to talk about tough games. This is what happens when you win a division. They're at Dallas. They're at Kansas City. And they're home for the Ravens. Those are brutal. The AFC South. Give me that Houston Dallas game on Thanksgiving.

Oh, boy. Give me that game on Thanksgiving. Get some CJ Stroud on national television. That, yeah. I'm sorry we didn't record this yesterday. Your value on the Houston, Texas is completely going at this point, Tom. Yeah, it's minus 1.

It's minus 140 to that over nine and a half now. At the start of before free agency, they were like 22 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I think that last I saw it's like 14 to 1. So yeah, it's 16 to 1 at draft kings right now. So all the value has been kind of sucked out since the Stefan Diggs trade. but this was a team that was getting some momentum before the trade yesterday, getting Daniel Hunter and, you know, they loaded up on that defense.

We noted how they got Joe Mixing. But yeah, that schedule is looking a little tougher here. They do have the games with the AFC East as well. And, yeah, this is NFC North is their crossover games too. We're getting that on Monday night football, right, Buffalo, Houston. That's a Monday night game. Absolutely. So yeah, NFC North is their games with the NFC. So I think that's the toughest division at football right now. So everybody's going to be jumping towards that over nine and a half. The Texans were certainly fortunate, you know, on their little run last year. They had one of the easiest schedules in football.

They're going to go from one of the easiest to one of the most difficult here. So I don't know, I don't know if I'd be joining the masses to go run and hit that over. minus nine and a half. This is one I would just stay away from. I don't want to bet the under. I don't, this is certainly a team that's, you know, on the come up here. But I also, the level of difficulty is about to go up tenfold here this year. We're not going to hit every team, obviously. We're not going to bore you guys out there. You can go over to fantasy points.com and check out Tom's fantastic article. But we're going to hit on some of the high points, go around the league. Three teams have win total props of 11.5. Can

City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens, and the San Francisco 49ers, who are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of those three teams, is there any one of them that you kind of think, I might take the under on that. All of them won at least 11 games last year, Kansas City 11 and 6, Baltimore 1,13, and San Francisco won 12. Anybody you think might not hit that 11 or, you know, might not hit 12. Yeah, yeah, I gave out the Baltimore Ravens on the site here last. week under 11 and a half. It was minus 135 at Draft Kings. But, you know, the Ravens obviously made some headlines with that big signing. They got Derek Henry. They got their guy. They've been kind of eye him him up. They were trying to get him at the trade deadline last year.

But other than that, it's been, they've been quietly kind of like the bills here, letting a lot of their key players walk, trying to get their books in order here. Patrick Queen, Gino Stone, Ginoe, Gino, Clowney. Offensive Guards, John Simpson and Kevin Zeiler. This is a team that lost a lot of key parts from that 13 win team last year that made it to the AFC championship. Obviously, they still have a lot of key parts left, but this is not quite the same team that it was last year. They'll get a tougher schedule here in terms of unique games. They get Buffalo Houston and Tampa Bay.

So no pushovers there. And if you look at the AFC North, that was the first division since they've gone to the, I think ever since to have four teams with winning records to each. They all reached nine wins last year. Even the Bengals with all their injury issues at the end of last year still got to nine wins. So this is not a easy division to, you know, to even go like five and one to you probably got to go at least four and two, if not five and one to get to this 12 win mark with all these extra games and stuff. So this is a team I'm looking. I still think they're one of the best teams in the AFC, but they've suffered some losses.

I think they're more of a 10 to 11 win team this year. I think this line is set a little too high. I think it should be at 10 and a half for the level of competition they're going to have to go through in the AFC North. Can I let me circle back one second to the Houston Texans because I was curious about this when we were discussing it. And I kind of agree with Tom. Like the value on the Texans to the Texans to the Super Bowl, it's a year too early.

Do you know that in six of the last seven Super Bowls, one of the two teams has had a quarterback in either his second or third year as a starter in the game? So you look, look at it. Brock, Joe Burrough, Jalen Hertz. Yeah. Jailen Hurts, Joe Burrow. The only Super Bowl that didn't was Tampa, Kansas City. Kansas City, San Francisco had, of course, Mahomes. Well, Mahomes in his second year as a starter.

New England in the Rams was Jared Gough, Philadelphia and New England was, if you want to apply it, make it five and a half because that was Carson Lentz on his rookie contract and he played most of the season. So there is that track record of success there. Just throwing that out there when it comes to C.J. Stroud. Now, of course, you've got to get through the gauntlet that is the AFC, which includes Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow and all in those quarterbacks, Josh Allen, those quarterbacks, we just in Lamar.

So, but just throwing that out there, that this is. I mean, this is the proven way to get to the Super Bowl in recent years, Drake. Sorry to sort of interrupt, but I just thought that was very important to point out. Great point right there. Let's bop around to some of these teams here. Last year's darling, the Detroit Lions. Now, they were within a blink of going to the Super Bowl. Some say they maybe should have gone to the Super Bowl.

Yep. They're minus 110. Their line is 10 and a half wins. They went 12 and 5 last year. I think their division is more difficult. You've got a surging Green Bay team. We'll see if the Bears with a new quarterback and some money spent are a little bit better. Minnesota is going to have a new quarterback.

We'll see about those guys. Let's start with you, Dolan. Do you think Detroit can keep it going and kind of repeat at least 11 wins? The thing I love about Detroit is I think the culture is repeatable. I think this is a team that's completely bought in. I think you've got Jemir Gibbs going into a second season, I think is going to be a big breakout player. We still have the unknown of Jameson Williams.

I'm told you guys on this bot, I'm going in again. I'm going to be in on James and Williams yet again. I think there's probably a little bit of concern about the secondary. Both of their outside corners are new. Amher Robinson and Carlton Davis. but they tried to address a weakness. They brought in Kevin Zaitler along the offensive line. I think this is a team that's set up for success this year.

The problem is, as you mentioned, I think the only pushover in that division, and pushover is probably stretching it. To consider a team that has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, a pushover is probably a little bit of a stretch, but Minnesota is going to have a rookie quarterback this year or Sam Darnold. It's almost like Buffalo situation, right? just you've got Caleb Williams is coming into a great situation.

Obviously Green Bay, Jordan Love announced himself to the world. I think I would lean to the over for the Lions, but I think that's going to be a really fun division to watch this year. Yeah, I probably would lean towards the end. I just think the Bears are going to be a little bit better. That was a team I considered for their over. I think people are kind of underselling just how great that situation is that Caleb Williams is going to walk in.

that was a good team. Last year in my power rankings towards the end of the season, they were a top half of the league type of team. They were like 12, you know, number 12 or 13, even with Justin Fields at quarterback. So I think they're going to get a, even with a rookie quarterback, I do think they're going to get a significant upgrade at quarterback. And I think this Packers team is on the come up as well. I mean, they were playing fantastic in the second half of the season. Jordan Love really hit his stride. They were, they were close to making that NFC championship game and making it a Packers Lions matchup in the NFC championship. So it's, I believe me, I've been riding the Lions here the last couple of years.

They've been the best team for against the spread purposes. They've won me a lot of money over the last three years. But maybe they're starting to hit that pinnacle. No team's going to take them lightly this year. I kind of lean towards the under here. but not a strong feeling on that one. What is it? Eight teams here with a 10-and-a-half win total prop.

So that's kind of where the books are settling on these teams that you think, well, they could be pretty good. And it's going to get good money going either way. Let me talk about a few of these. And you can't talk about any, you know, NFL win prop total without talking about the Dallas Cowboys because you either love the Cowboys and you think they're going to go, you know, 17 and 0 win the Super Bowl. or you hate the Cowboys and you hope their stadium burns down tomorrow.

They're at 10 and a half wins. Their unique games, very interesting. Very interesting, Dolan. Detroit at home, Houston at home, at the 49ers. Obviously, you know, the NFCs to get the Eagles, Giants, and commanders twice. They spent no money. They've done almost nothing to improve their roster here. You know, they just don't want to lay out any cash.

They don't have a running back on their team right now. That's what I'm doing after the show. you do, Drake. Yes, after the show, I've got a workout in place on Zoom with Jerry, and then I'll be fit for a uniform. But plus 100 for a 10 and a half line for the Cowboys. I mean, I just think with their division and they're just good enough, the defense. But, you know, no Dan Quinn anymore.

You're taking the over? You're taking the under on the Cowboys. Probably taking the under on the Cowboys. Remember that no team. It's been like 15 years since there was a repeat division winner. I think it's 2003. It's like 20 years. Philadelphia has had an interesting offseason.

I think Eagle fans would debate whether or not that team has improved. They certainly retooled. But I don't think there's any debate that Dallas is a worst team right now than they were when the season ended. And Drake, you mentioned people who hate the Cowboys and want their stadium and burn down. I think Cowboy fans hate the Cowboys and want their stadium to burn down right now. Dak Prescott has this bizarre legal issue. he's got the contract issue, that the Cowboys are sitting on their laurels and just letting drama unfold. And then, you know, when the season kicks off, they end up pretty good every year.

But this is more like a nine or ten win team to me right now than a team that's 11 or 12 wins and a Super Bowl contender. And maybe Jerry has something up his sleeve, but with the Prescott situation, it's hard to really overlook that. That relationship has been weird for the last number of years. Prescott's brothers going off on Twitter about how the Eagles are a better run organization than the Cowboys are. And it's just, it is a bizarre situation here. They have CD Lamb. They got rid of Michael Gallup, which that was a terrible resigning.

They might have been to an N. What a, what that was the biggest. Just a horrible decision. Brandon Cooks is another year old. They signed Martavis Bryant. Like Martaioz Bryant. Oh, right. There's go.

So nobody, they said they're not doing anything this off season. they're clearly doing something. Yeah, I mean, Tyron Smith is gone. Zach Martin's a year older. Their offensive line has, I mean, Tyler Smith is good, but the Zach Martin's year older.

He might have to play tackle now. Who knows what he's going to do? Yeah, it's just, I don't know, man. I think for my money, as bad an offseason as a team has had. And while the NFL draft certainly gives opportunities, look, over the last couple, you know, AJ Brown was traded during the NFL draft.

Markis Brown was traded during the NFL draft. There's going to be. be trades during the draft that are going to affect how you look at teams. But the Cowboys are playing from behind here, Tom. They have done literally nothing. Yeah. The one thing I'll say to go on the other side, I'm with you. I lean towards the under, but nobody gets more style points in the regular season than the Dallas Cowboys.

They love to put up those points and they love to beat up on teams. So that would be the one thing that's keeping me off this. But I'm with you. I mean, there's, I mean, you just have to look at their transaction log. They have literally done nothing all off season long. I get it to an extent, you know, they're looking to, you know, they got to get C.D. Lamb and Micah Parsons and Dak Prescott under contract, but I don't know what, hey, let's do it now before Justin Jefferson gets a contract,

before, you know, Tua gets a contract later. Like, do this stuff now. That's going to open up more money for you to maybe go out and spend in free agency still this season. So I have no idea what. they've been doing all off season. I get to an extent, but I'm with you. I lean towards the under, but the Cowboys being the regular season champions does scare me a little bit. One of the teams in the NFC that has a pretty large swing in terms of what they did last year

and what the books think they'll do this year is the Atlanta Falcons. Last year, seven and ten under Arthur Smith. Literally they had, you know, nobody playing quarterback. Now they got Kirkie Cousins coming off the Achilles. We'll see how he does. Remember, that's his plant leg. And he's not a spring chicken here. So I'm still a little curious how he's going to bounce back.

But the Atlanta Falcons, Tom, plus 125 for a 10.5 win total. I think, you know, a lot of people expect them to walk into that division and be the favorite. Some people may still lean towards the Bucks. I'm not a big Bucks guy. I think it was a lot of smoke and mirrors last year, just in a really horrible division. So I like Atlanta. Do I think Atlanta can win 11 games in that division? I don't know.

I kind of think they can. I mean, is that that Kirk Cousins effect? Yeah, I mean, the quarterback situation was as bad as it gets in Atlanta last year with Desmond Ritter and Taylor Hospital Ball, Heineke there. They get another easy schedule here. It's going to be one of the best in the league. That's, you know, Cousins, obviously is a big upgrade of quarterback. But, you know, they get Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota as their unique games. And NFC South gets the NFC East and AFCC.

West. So nothing too difficult here where they get to play against the Saints and Buccaneers and Panthers six times. So I think on the surface, it's like, how are they at nine and a half, 10 and a half wins here? Just getting Kirk Cousins. But you also have to factor in the schedule for why this total is set so high. And this was a division that was right there for the taking. The Buccaneers were the team that stepped up last in that division last year. But I'm with you, I got to put my money on Kirk Cousins, who's coming off a major injury and going into a new offense. I do like the changes that the Falcons have made by bringing in, you know, we're going to go into the, I haven't written in my article. They're going to move into the 21st century here, going from Arthur Smith to Zach Robinson.

They're going to go, you know, spread the, you know, three wide receivers out in the field and let Kirkie Cook here. but yeah, I think ultimately I probably lean a little towards the under here at 10 and a half. And I think most people did. That's why this line has moved to 9.5 towards the over at minus 140. I like it. I like it over. I think they're a 10-win team ultimately. So I would look towards the under at the 10 and a half, but over at 9.5.

Joe, let me ask you about the New York Jets. They're listed here at 9.5. They were seven and ten last year with literally, you know, a kid off the street playing quarterback. You know, any trick or treater walking through your neighborhood is probably better than Zach Wilson at some point. To me, this is a slam dunk. You look at their unique games at Minnesota who doesn't have a quarterback against Denver at home. He doesn't have a quarterback. And at Pittsburgh who, well, some people might say they don't have two quarterbacks.

They have two quarterbacks. Do you have a quarterback if you have two quarterbacks? You know, nine and a half. This is a team with an elite defense. They've put tons of resources in this team. You've got now multiple weapons on the outside, you know, big Mike Williams, Garrett Wilson, Brees Hall, one of the best backs in football right now. And Aaron Rogers is healthy.

Come on. The Jets got to win 10 games, right, Joe? Well, here is, this might be the reason I'm going to take the over on the Jets here. And it's not necessarily Aaron Rogers, Trick. It's the fact that they signed Tyrod Taylor. Oh, because they might be a. nine-win team last year of Tyrod Taylor is their quarterback. You know, Aaron Rogers acquiesced.

He let them sign an actual backup quarterback this year. They didn't bring in Joe Flacco, you know, when he was on the street and then he leads the Browns to the playoffs. Now, I actually think that might be the reason I'm taking the over on the Jets because if Aaron Rogers misses time, I think Tyrod Taylor is going to be able to come out here and put enough points on the board that this defense is going to be able to stop teams. Now, they replaced Bryce Huff with Hassan. Ron Reddick. Literally, they just replaced a younger version of Hassan Reddick with Hassan Reddick himself.

So the defense, even though they lost a couple players, they bring in Javon Kinlaw. Look, this is going to be a good team. The offensive line should be improved. They signed Morgan Moses, but he's older. They signed Tyron Smith, who maybe you get eight games out of him. But they bring in John Simpson, maybe one of the most underrated signings of the offseason from the Ravens. So they, I think they're going to invest in the offensive line as well. I have this as a 10, 11, 12 win football team. I think they can get to like 11 or 12 wins without being overly impressive. That's the thing about that, the Jets, because as you mentioned, they were 7 and 10 last year with Zach Wilson at quarterback because the talent around Zach Wilson was so good that they couldn't go into the tank.

Yeah, I'll also say they pick 10th overall. They could, you know, bolster that offensive line again with that pick. They could even go Brock Bowers there. That's the kinds of, would add another element to that offense. They went out and signed Mike Williams as a vertical threat. Garrett Wilson is obviously dominant all over the field. And then if you go out and get Brock Bowers who, you know,

can take a five-yard pass and turn it into 15 yards very easily, suddenly that offense has a whole other element to, to defend. So they're going to get better here through the draft. So I hate to say, I kind of like what the chance have done this offseason. I probably would have had under until a couple of weeks ago, but I've liked some of the moves here over the last couple of weeks. A couple more before we get out of here. Remember, guys, get over to Fantasy Points.com.

We've got our prospect guide. It is free. It is available. Just head to the site and click on it and learn all about the new incoming rookies in 2024. This one surprises me. Let me talk to you about this one. Joe, we'll start with you, and then we'll head over to Tom. The Cleveland Browns at eight and a half,

going to be getting their quarterback returning. They were 11 and 6 last year with Joe Flack. What are you talking about? Their quarterback left. Joe Flacco left. Joe Flocko isn't Indianapolis. He's backup now. Hey, I put out there,

and I got a lot of heat on Twitter. I said that Deshaun Watson quit on them last year. I just didn't want to play, but that's the story for another day. This is a really real. I don't buy that, but yeah, it's got me a couple of things. They probably made the playoffs because he did. Thanks for the money there.

Honestly, I think that's why this line is might seem a little low. I think it's the quarterback situation. Really? Well, I loaded. I mean, you might have a job for a while. The defense is as good as anybody in the NFL. And they added Jerry Judy, you don't take that for what you will. But eight and a half, this is a real kind of sticking point here.

So, Braille, you telling me eight and a half, you're going over, you're going under on the brownies? I would probably lean toward the under here. I don't think Deshaun Watson's very good. And I think this line is telling you that. This was what they finished with 11 wins last year. This was a better team the last two years with Jacoby Brissette back in 2012. And when Joe Flacco came in at quarterback at the end of last year. So if they had a league average quarterback, I think this would be a nine and a half.

The wind total will be set at nine and a half right now. But I think the books are telling us they don't think very highly of Deshaun Watson. And I don't blame them. I don't either. from what I've seen from him. I mean, he hasn't really even had like a full season of game since he came back. You know, played six games at the end of the 22 season and was in and out of the line up last year before, you know, he ultimately got knocked out.

So, but the early returns since he came back to the NFL here have not been good. And this win total is telling you all you need to know about what the books think is to Sean Watson right now. He's got 14 touchdown passes in his 12 stars. with the Browns. That's Kenny Pickett level. Actually, that's like double Kenny Pickett. That's where it was for old Kenny. Let me play devil's advocate here. I did not expect to come on to the podcast

and start caping for backup quarterbacks. But like, if there's a reason to maybe bet the over for Cleveland, it's kind of like with the Jets. They've got James Winston here and Tyler Huntley. They signed them both. And I feel like both of those guys there are guys who can come out and win football games with the talent that the Browns have. I mean, look, Joe Flacco, I think most people would say he outplayed Deshawn Watson last year. But the one thing Joe Flacco did was he was just like, screw it.

I'm going to throw the ball all over the field. He threw a ton of interceptions. Well, that's what James is. James will throw for 350 with three touchdowns and three picks, you know? So it's not necessarily what you want, but that to me, like the fact, Tom, what you brought up, though, the fact of the matter that this team won 11 games last year now is lined at 8 and a half with all the talent on this team tells you exactly what the markets think of Deshawn Watson and I find that fascinating. I am not touching this line. Look, you're playing a division with Baltimore. Pittsburgh wins 10 games every year.

You're going to win 10 games this year. I think Justin Fields is going to be the quarterback for the majority of the season for the Steelers. That's neither here. So that's where the Steelers have beaten. you down, Tom. Like, you're hoping. I know. I'm rooting for Justin Bills.

The quarterback. So Cleveland's unique games, Miami at Jacksonville at New Orleans. That doesn't scare me at all. So I would actually probably lean towards the over here, but I am not touching this. The fact of the matter is Deshawn Watson has not played well since 2020 when there were no fans in stadiums. Yeah, I guess the defense is hard to replicate from season to see. And they were, you know, the, you know, the league's best.

defense last year. So I think we have to expect some sort of, you know, a step down for that from the defensive unit. But I do, you know, as much as Jerry Judy has been a disappointment. I did like that addition to the offense here to give Deshawn Watson yet another weapon. So if it doesn't happen this year for Deshawn Watson or Jerry Judy, it's probably time to write both of them off, if we haven't already written them off already. So we have the full list and some of Brally's best bets and some of the plays he took, maybe some of the ones he considered. It's all over at FantasyPoints.com. Before we get out of here, guys, just looking at the list, is there one team maybe here

on the low end, we haven't mentioned yet that you look at and you go, ah, that's mispriced. I would take the over on these guys. I think they'll be better. Or is there a terrible team that you go, they are terrible. Bet the under. There's no way they're hitting that total. What I gave out in the article, I thought the Patriots at four and a half was a little

too low for me. that defense was really good last year. And they did it without their two best defensive players for basically three quarters of the season. And I think they're going to get way better quarterback play from Jacoby Brisset and a rookie quarterback. We'll find out who that's going to be here a couple weeks. If it's the rookie quarterback, are they going to trade down and try to get X to make this? I don't buy that line at all. You don't get the pick in the top three very often, especially in a draft with,

with quarterbacks, but I just don't see them passing on that opportunity. But quite honestly, I hope it's Drake May and they let Drake May sit for half the season and let Jacoby Brissette start and win some games early in the year to help me get over this four and a half. So I thought this one should be at five and a half. I thought that was a little opportunity to bet on the Patriots at over four and a half. Two stand out to me here, Drake. The one problem for the Arizona is they play in the same division as the Rams and the 49ers,

who I think are going to be too difficult teams to beat this year. So I'm probably staying away from that one. Tennessee is interesting to me. Six and a half. This one opened five and a half. I wanted to give it out and it moved too quickly, but I'm with you, Joe. Yeah, they're floating.

So like we don't know that Will Levis is good. And I don't know if you got the Tennessee brass, if you got Ran Carthon in a room and ask them, hey, Rand Carthon is Will Levis good? I bet you over a couple of sodie pops you tell you, you know, I don't know. But guess what? We're going to find out because we signed Calvin Ridley.

We still have DeAndre Hopkins. We signed Tony Pollard. They've been making moves with the sole intention of saying, you know what, we're going to find out if Will Levis is worth a damn. They brought in Mason Rudolph, as we saw last year, could stabilize things if things go haywire, made some moves on defense, obviously, to get legurious need. The Titans at six and a half is interesting to me.

That's one where I'd probably lean to it. You only have to win seven games. And look, Houston, Houston's getting smoke blown up their ass for good reason, but it's still a team that's coming off one year of success with the rookie quarterback. Jackson, I don't know what the Jacksonville is doing. Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson started what, five games last year and didn't finish four of them. So we have to. They got a Lacko, though.

I do love Joe. But now, I just think that's a division where, like, that division could be ripe for competition. I like Tennessee over the six and a half. I'll give one little quick under, too. We're giving a couple of. Give it to me, Braille. I think, I just think the Raiders. That's a team I think kind of overperformed last year.

I still don't think they're very good. We have Gardner, Minchu and Aden O'Connell. I just don't, I don't see them duplicating what they did in the second half of last year. This kind of franchise is just rudderless. I think Antonio Pierce certainly got the most out of that group last year, but you're not going to win and win a lot in the NFL if you're going to be focused on a running game. And the running game has Zamir White as its key running back. So I just see this.

I wish this was line open seven and a half, I would have definitely, you know, jumped into that under. But even at six and a half, getting a plus price, I just, I don't see it with this Raiders team. Obviously, they have a couple top end talents in Max Crosby and Devante Adams. but this is a team that's just otherwise blah to me. So that would be one team I would look to fade here off of what they did at the end of last year. All right, folks. If again, if you want more, head over to FantasyPoints.com. Check out all of Tom's great work and everything else we have going on there.

If you haven't been to FantasyPoints.com in a moment, number one, what are you waiting for? But we've got new writers over there like Mark Garcia, I've been putting out incredible work. You know, Joe, you are the managing editor. You can speak a little bit to some of our new writers. writers. The content doesn't slow down in the offseason here at fantasy points. It's only ramping up. Our dynasty content is now off the charts. We know you guys are going to have those rookie drafts coming up.

So make sure you're checking out Thomas Tipple and Jacob Sanderson and those guys over doing our dynasty podcast at J.J. Zacharisen on this week. So check that out on the YouTube channel. But Joe, it's just the wheels are in motion here to have a hell of a year at fantasy points. It's going to be a great year. I'll let the content speak for itself. Head on over. A lot of it We're not even paywalling some of it, this. And oh, by the way, Jake Tribee, I knew nothing about the UFL and spring football. Absolutely nothing. I read his article and looked at our projections that he and Chris Weck put together,

threw together one lineup and two and a half times my money. I mean, I put just 42 bucks down. I'm not trying to tell you I put a thousand bucks down, but I put 42 bucks down in 190. I'll take that any day of the week with the UFO content that those boys put out. So that's what's going up at Fantasy Points. right now you can get a subscription to that but um really really enjoy what what i'm reading and i'm learning stuff every day love it so folks enjoy your weekend uh have fun watching russellmania

because we know that's what everyone's going to be doing this weekend oh i guess you know the final four too oh yeah but uh we'll be back uh next time hanging and banging in the two points dance we'll see you thanks for tuning in to this edition of the fantasy points podcast remember to subscribe rate and review on your favorite platform and come join the at FantasyPoints.com.