Fantasy Football Daily - The Worst Picks in Every Round Of Fantasy Drafts (Rounds 1-6)

Episode Date: July 10, 2024

Dynasty drafts in 2024 don't have to be difficult. With Dynasty Points, you can spot the draft busts and bargains and win your fantasy league. Dynasty Playlist - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-kupTuz42SeHflK6fqOqKTxwqB2s46M6 Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ All our podcasts are here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ ADP Tool Dynasty Data Lab - https://dynastydatalab.com/ Pure Potential YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@PurePotentialFF Where to find us: http://twitter.com/DynastyPts http://twitter.com/ElNostraThomas http://twitter.com/JakobSanderson http://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath http://twitter.com/PaulPattersonFF FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok- Http://TikTok.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What? Why are you shaking your head? You're welcome. Well, it's Tuesday night, and that can only mean you're in one place. You're here with us at Fantasy Points here on YouTube. If you're not already, you're going to want to hit the subscribe button, hit the bell. Make sure you're not missing anything that we are releasing. We are going crazy with the Fantasy franchise focus, 32 beat reporters for 32 teams.

We have some of the regulars here tonight, no Lucas Gilbert. We do have Ryan Heath at Ryan J underscore Heath, Jacob Sanderson, back to Galaxy Brain Us All into submission at Jacob Sanderson. And coming all the way from Pure Potential, this is Paul Patterson, making what I think, if I might have lost count, is this fifth appearance here with us. We're excited to have Paul with us. We are excited to now have Paul doing some video content for us. coming down the pipe

some very fun dynasty driven videos coming your way because like we said, we are building the dynasty product for you. More dynasty content than has ever been put on our platform is being served to all of you.

So shout out to everyone joining us tonight. Paul, Jacob, Ryan. I am excited to dive right in. People are going to be sad. There's no five for five. five tonight. We're not, we just, we couldn't fit it in. Thank God. What we do have, what we do have, though.

I'm sad not to give Paul a shot at it, though. That's, that's unfortunate, but we'll make sure that we make that up to him, I'm sure. Oh yeah, we're going to get, we're going to get them in on one for sure. However, we do have something new today. Today, we are going to do beat or bogus. What is going to happen is I am going to read a beat report, and the gentleman here are going to have to decide if someone, some beat reporter out there on the internet, remember, there's a lot of them, actually wrote this for their website or blog. So, real simple, I'm just going to read it, and you guys are going to decide. Let's kick it off.

Starting up, veteran wide receivers, Defon Diggs, is on the wrong side of 30, heads to his third team in his career, raising questions about his declares. declining skill set and locker room fit. According to an inside source familiar with the Texans and in training camp, concerns are swirling about Diggs' ability to maintain his past production, while Case Keenham, his former teammate and current Texans backup, offered glowing praise. Some within the organization remain skeptical.

We've seen flashes, but there's also a lot of frustration, said the source in his quote. He's not the burner he used to be, and there have been some drops in key situations, including drills, end quote. The Texans are banking on Diggs elevating their offense, but if he can't adapt to a new system and a young quarterback, this trade could be a big gamble. Diggs' consistency is undeniable, but his age and recent team changes raise questions about whether or not he can be the Texans true, wide receiver one, only tell if he can silence his doubters,

or if this move becomes another pit stop in a downward trend for the veteran. This is way too dramatic. I'm going bogus. You can tell this is bogus because it's like a smut novel. Yeah. It's just structured in a way where you like it gives the overall negative thesis. And then it says, oh, well, there's this opinion from case keynote. But here's everything else that's like negative.

This is AI generated. I know this. Yeah, I think the boys here make a pretty good point. I'm an English teacher, high school English teacher, so I'm pretty good at spotting chat GPT, and this doesn't sound real to me. So it'll be interesting to note that this was a real written piece taken from a Houston beats blog. However, I did just go in and change. Every positive word to a negative. Oh, my gosh.

But everything in terms of its structure, how it was written, all of that was actually produced and put out. I just made it mean. So they got it. You inception the AI. I think this was an AI written word. Yeah, we're two layers deep. You fed it back through chat GPT. That's why it just hits in like double AI.

He, AI moderated at blurb that was already written by AI. Yes. I'm convinced of this. Perfect. I love that. So that's one for everyone. I'm glad that we got the introduction. We are going to be stepping this up as we go.

Because we are working on getting Pat Dowardy back. And of course, this whole theme started when Jacob came up with an idea to read Pat Dowardy's blurbs back to him and try to figure out if Pat actually wrote it or if Jacob did and it was a phenomenal bit. So we're back with it, just changing it up a little bit. Fun start, you know, I had to pick on the digs thing because when I actually saw the real report, I too questioned whether or not I actually thought that was real. It was a lot. A lot of Case Keenum in that report too, by the way.

Why he was the start of the show, I don't know. Case Keenom's cousin nephew or something like that. I don't know. all right sean he says nothing like three hour evening dynasty content to lead right into hump day we promise this is not going to be three hours even though the poll in the fantasy points discord which you can get to if you make a free account at fancy points dot com it will get you access to the discord just with the free account there was a vote and 67% said that we should go three hours and the rest of the votes all said do it so tom gets even less sleep so shout out to everyone my my lap literally won't last three hours until the battery dies. So I love that. It does not own a laptop charge you. That's the best hard out I've ever heard.

It's a legitimate. It's a legitimate heart out. It's I have there's like two ports, right? One of them I need to use to connect my mic and camera. And then the other one doesn't work. So I can't charge my laptop. And have my mic and camera at the same time. That's the issue.

Wow. Yeah. Well, you know, Mac and stuff. So this is what it is. Where are the fun facts too? What is happening? Look, we time. Brian, this is a lengthy topic that we have today.

So unfortunately, something had to get cut. Okay. So this is where we're at. I'm about to start a GoFundMe for Jacob Sanderson. Let's get him more ports on his laptop. Uh, 100% this is not drafting enough Devon Achan in bestball. He's never going to be able to buy himself. All right. With that, we're going to take a quick break. We're not talking best ball in this podcast. When we come back, we're getting right into why we're here, which is giving you what we think are the worst picks in as many rounds as we can get through before Jacob's laptop dies, which I now think is the theme for the show.

I feel like after about an hour, the Jaws theme is going to have to start playing. to let us know we need to hurry up. So sit tight. When we come back, Paul's going to give us who he thinks is the worst pick around one on top of some other fun stuff that we're going to lead the conversation with. So you're going to want to sit tight. Okay, before we get into the meat of the episode, the real meat, which is what everyone is here for, I just want to add in a little convo that has popped up in the Discord quite a bit.

here at Fantasy Points with players being more and more willing to move out of their round three, four, and five picks in startups. I just want to ask you guys a question, because this is something that has been in my head now for a little bit. I do not think rounds one and two carry as much weight in terms of importance as rounds three, four, and five in a startup, which is going to make today's episode very, important. I feel like if you're drafting anywhere in round one and two, you're getting a good player unless something horrendous happens like Aaron Rogers Achilles blows out, Breece Hall's knee explodes. It's really just the Jets. But, well, and or Kyler, right? I feel like everyone's kind of on a level playing field in that round one and two. But to me, the skill is in rounds three, four, and five. Because that's where you're going to potentially either get that guy that's

breaking out or that's going to absolutely slub it and lose his value. It's the difference between having DJ Moore or Garrett Wilson who shoots up to the second round where DJ Moore just stays in eternal fifth round purgatory forever. Do you feel the same way? Are you more inclined or more? Are you okay with moving out of your three, four, and fives? Because for me, the difference maker is rounds three, four, and five. I'm going to go to Paul first as our.

our guest of honor. It's a good question. You know, generally I just try to, I do try to be pretty flexible with what the rest of the league's trying to do. So that does impact what I would be doing in a trade scenario. But I'm very interested in getting up back into the second round when I can, if I can package up some picks and get an extra one of those premium assets early on in the draft, very open to doing that.

But there are guys that I really. like sprinkled throughout those three rounds. So it's not like I'm avoiding picks there. If anything, I think there's a really, really bad patch in like round six and seven more so. So not an area I'm targeting, not an area I'm necessarily trying to get out of, but there are some landmines for sure that come up there where I see players go off the board and I'm like, I don't know what people are thinking. We'll definitely talk about some of those guys.

But it is definitely the volatile area of the draft because there's a lot of speculation. players that haven't necessarily done it yet, that we are hoping take that next step, and that can blow up in your face pretty quick. Yeah, I think for me, the cutoff is probably, it's usually in the middle of round two. We'll have the ADP pulled up later, but you see Kyler and Justin Herbert go off

in the middle of round two there, depending on the room you're in. It might be slightly other quarterbacks. That's really to me where there's kind of a mark of difference. From that point forward, I think it does get pretty flat from the, top of that next group of wide receivers. So into the, you know, Puka, Garrett Wilson, that grouping all the way down to some of the

guys, some of the tight ends that you'll get kind of towards the end of the fourth round. Generally, I say for a couple of quarterbacks, like a Trevor, a DAC that right now I think their ADP is a glaring value, but save for them, I generally want to be trying to get up into the first picking first twice in the first maybe three times in that first round and a half vacating out of that late two early three area and then seeing if I can sneak back up maybe make my third or fourth maybe third and fourth pick in that late fourth where I feel like I'm catching the end of that tier I definitely agree that's where there's a lot more high risk opportunities or high opportunity costs that's not quite as sure is when you're

getting into that early third round. And I think it is reasonably flat there. I agree where you're talking about a really dropping off in the sixth. Like to me, it's a little hard because there's always going to be sort of some picks here when you look at ADP that don't actually align with how I tier it. So you can expect, you know, in any draft, there's going to be people who draft guys that you might not be looking at for a while. But specifically, if we just like a wide receiver, like I find once you get past, like I'm looking at round five right now, you know, here's. There's Pitman and more Mekkaff flowers into Dell. Once you get past that grouping, give or take,

I think it's a really substantial downgrade when you get into like JSN, Brian Thomas, Debo, Ladd-McConkie, Jordan Addison, that group. At that point, I'd much rather just go all the way down, take the value and go down like three, four rounds even to sort of pick up the Mitchell Leggette, Deonté Johnson, Pearsall, like that, Christian Kirk, that kind of end of that tier. So generally it's about navigating. agree with you very much that like those those first round in a bit it's less about the player choices it's more about i just want to pick multiple times in that grouping whenever i can yeah i

i'm going to largely agree with jacobs take there i think it there's just a confluence right around like that middle to end of the second round of all of the positions to just having a simultaneous teardrop i feel like uh like i i think even with running back like after you get past like a Jemir Gibbs. Suddenly, I'm very not interested in selecting running backs for a while. I'm not even interested in Jimmy. Yeah. And even sure, Gibbs I'm ambivalent on, I guess, in like late round two of a startup.

But yeah, I'm not running out to get him. But my point is, yeah, I look at these running backs in rounds three through five. And I just see a lot of landmines and a lot of like, why would I do this type of thing? So I'm okay with trading out if I'm saying, okay, there's a lot of landmines in this area of the draft. Theoretically, you want to trade out and have other people be making picks and them being the ones to make the mistakes into the landmines, right? But I mean, there are guys I'm interested in here. Like this is, I think this is much more of like a I know ball area of the draft where you're going to pick your guy. Like you're going to say, okay, look, this is where I'm taking.

in Kyle Pitts because I know better than everybody else and I know Ball and he's going to be in round two of a startup next year or whatever. Like I can definitely pick out a few guys from this area of ADP that I feel that way about and that I will run right into the landmine for. But I guess that tendency in me wanting to do that is almost more of an argument of get the hell away from these picks. Yeah, I will say that tier drop at the end of round two can hit pretty hard depending on the draft group that you're in.

Like sometimes you can see like a Tyler fall there or like I got Garrett Wilson at the 302 at my last startup and like that that feels great. But sometimes you are staring down the barrel of some players you don't really want there. It almost swings it to the point where I'd rather have a late pick in a startup if it's third round reversal. Like it's kind of nice having the you know the 112 and the 201 and the 301 and the 301. It's almost preferable knowing you get two of those. premium guys at the end of the first round.

But yeah, I've had trouble weighing it with the advantage of that high-end quarterback, but it does get pretty flat, like Jacob said in the third through fifth round, I'd say. But that's definitely where the separators are, in my opinion. So that's to me why it's important. Somebody, and we're going to get, again, going to get into bad player picks at each round. But I think what Ryan said about this is the, No ball portion is really where I was going with this because to me you make the right pick in round five compared to the bad pick in say round four, you're sitting a lot nicer

in your dynasty picks. If you make bad picks in round three, four, and five, chances are your flat picks in round one and two, you're still, they're not going to make up the difference if you blow picks in round three, four, and five. Brian mentions that I'll do a trade down from four to six as part of a trade up into two. Yeah, there's a lot of different ways to get back up in to the second round. Jacob's going to hit on that as they pop up. He is definitely more inclined to trade up than I am.

I just never do it. It never seems to be beneficial for me in my leagues. Brutal. Just it never actually works out for me. But good conversation to kick it all off. I think it's time to dive into round number one. And of course, again, guest of honor, it's Paul Patterson giving us his first of his worst

picks in round one. Well, you've kind of set me up for failure here, giving me round one where all the players are awesome and I'm going to sound like a real hater saying one of these guys is a bad pick. But I'm going to take the low-hanging fruit here and I'm going to go with the guy with the 112 ADP, and that's Amaranas St. Brown.

I think he's a really great player, valuable dynasty asset. I just think he's the odd man out here when we're looking at, like, your first round pick, you know, absolute ceiling outcome. The floor is there. We know the floor is there, and it's very, very high. And even the ceiling is relatively high. But I just think, I think he's a little bit more limited as a player compared to Jefferson, Lamb, and Chase.

You know, you look last year, his experience. points per game, 17.8. He was three points per game over expected. I don't know how sustainable that is, especially a player with his role where he's largely a volume compiler. So to me, I view him as more of like a mid-second round startup pick. Still a guy I want to have on my team.

But if I'm on the clock at the 112, I just don't think that I'm taking him as the foundational building block of my dynasty team. Yeah, I don't agree. I like if I'm taking a wide receiver I'm fine with Aminraa there like if he finished his third like if he finishes as the wide receiver three over one of Jefferson Lamber Chase I'm going to be like yeah like that like if one of those guys finished fourth I wouldn't really shake too hard if I was taking a wide receiver I would take him but I just wouldn't take a wide receiver that's fair that gets into the conversation around two like we can tie this in the round two and what's there but you're right just within that vacuum I can see that. Jacob, want to get yours next.

For sure, yeah, and I mostly agree with Paul there on Amman Raw, but my guy, a couple picks in front, if you happen to catch it or if you go on YouTube and find it, I got to about an hour-long chat with Ben Gretch

on his channel about Anthony Richardson in a best ball setup, in which I was really the Anthony Richardson Bull. He was certainly less bullish on him for this year, I think his dynasty ADP is completely unreasonable. We have two-game full sample on him as NFL quarterback. Really just confirmed, I think, things that we already knew before he ever played a game,

which is that he's going to run a lot and his passing is inconsistent, right? The upside, and I think why his ADP has gotten so much higher, even though he barely played last year, my guess is how impressive Shane Steichen was in getting a legitimate offense out of Gardner Minshu playing at a high pace, all that stuff. We see kind of proof of concept of him as a play caller. But you still look at the names behind Richardson that you can draft in round two, like Tyler Murray, I just prefer straight up.

I easily prefer Justin Herbert by like leaps of bounds. And then I think like even you get into Lawrence, Doc Prescott, Drake May in rounds three and four, you can make the Daniels argument as a similar kind of high variance. bet. These are all guys that I think are more or less similar bets to Richardson or safer bets that are a little bit narrower, banned on both side. But I can then just take two of those quarterbacks and start adding a receiver. Realistically, I'm at the 110 there. I'm either trying to move up into the top nine. I think there's a real drop off after those top nine names, or I'm picking Herbert, or I'm trading back. But Richardson is the one who particularly

strikes out as just an extraordinarily risky proposition at that ADP. And those are fair cases. Absolutely. There's going to be, you're beating allegations of homerism with that pick, by the way. And you absolutely love this. Yeah. I mean, look, I think he's going to score a lot of points this year. I'm just looking at the board, right?

Josh Allen, going to be a Hall fame player, probably, at the very least of several-time Pro Bowl. Patrick Mahomes, probably the best quarterback of all time. You know, maybe people don't have quite as much certainty as I do on C.J. Stroud, but you certainly should be a lot more sure. about him as an NFL quarterback than Richardson, you know, hurts what he is, Lamar. Like, it's just proven great players all the way down this board, even behind him in Amund Wrestling Brown, where obviously the upside is nowhere near what Richardson is, but you're

very, very safe from a floor perspective there. Richardson just strikes me and Caleb you could throw in two as being the ones who are of a very different floor proposition from round one. Yeah, I guess we're kind of doing the fields thing again, right, where he was going, right, If you were, if you were, if you were, extreme. Tom was just talking about it, right? Where Tom's talking about, you know, just round one even matter, they're all good, right?

If someone here on this board that we're looking at, it's going to be the guy that 30% of teams he drafted him are orphans in two years. It's, it's Richardson. That's fair. Yeah, no, that's a great way to look. My life got a little, little hectic. I got to cut back on some of these.

Ryan, your worst, your worst pick round one uh yeah i for me it's going to be caleb williams for basically okay types of reasons that jacob just said um yeah you just take a look into round two and it's like oh look justin herbert and kail murray who have already had like an 80th percentile outcome for caleb williams first few seasons in the league so but i the point i instead of harping on kail williams the point i want to bring up is we just talked about what Wow, it's almost nice to have like a back end of the first pick if you're like if we're just talking about third round reversal with how these tiers end up shaking out in like the third, fourth and fifth round. But all three of us just identified the last three picks by ADP in the first round as our worst picks.

So I just agree. I don't know. I'll all said there. I disagree vehemently. I think my favorite picks, well, look, if I can just have a top three pick, I just want a top three pick. I think those three are leaps and bounds out of the rest. If I can't pick three, I want to be sitting in the third round of Versal at eight, nine. I think it's pretty flat for me from four through nine.

And then my like dream start that I've been able to get in startups has been getting one of those top three wide receivers in the first. And then being able to still come back at one of Kyler or Herbert in the second and then get one of DAC or Lawrence in the third. If I'm not able to get one of them, take the receiver, try to get May in the fourth. That's my dream setup. I like that. Yeah, 1009, good spot. 10, 11, 12, maybe a little bit less good. Yeah, I think that's all.

I think all three of those picks make a lot of sense. But my worst pick of the first round is C.J. Stroud at 103. Just one person on this podcast network has spoken the truth about C.J. Stroud and all others will not be remembered fondly by history. Now look, C.J. Stroud has. a phenomenal rookie year. But I feel like it is safe to say that if you want a quarterback that has his range of outcomes, you could just take Joe Burrow at 109 because we've seen Joe Burroughs ceiling

when healthy in his offense. I think that if you're looking at someone like CJ Stroud at 103, like I would still very much rather Jalen Hertz. I feel like his week-to-week upside is just higher. Lamar Jackson's week-to-week upside is just higher. C.J. Stroud had an amazing rookie season. I will not deny that this show. Jacob, you and I, some of the earliest.

We had Scott on here. We are arguing C.J. Stroud's upside at nausea. We tilted people with how much we loved him. But let's face the facts, he is not a strong rushing prototype quarterback. And those typically, when you're drafting them, it wasn't that long ago Justin Herbert was being taken in the first three picks. It wasn't long ago that Joe Burrow found him's health sitting in this exact same spot. It takes so much for these quarterbacks that do not run enough to maintain these spots for me to be willing to take him at 103. I am not telling you that he is a priority cell.

I am not telling you that C.J. Stroud is hashtag bad. What I am saying is if I got the opportunity to move back from 103 to 109 and just draft Joe Burrow, I would do that every single time. And I would also just draft Jalen Hertz and Lamar Jackson ahead of where I would take C.J. Stroud. But I just want to make sure that I am not quoted as somehow saying that C.J. Stroud is ass. I am not one. taking it. I am not. This is not. But I will be, I will

let the exact one second that you just said, C.J. Stroud is ass. That was at 27 minutes and 15 seconds. I know you would. I need that on like a soundboard, right? It's just Thomas saying. C.J. Stroud is ass. It's going to be next week's game.

We're just going to play that back and we're going to have to say if that was the real quote or not. Yeah. Let's not encourage everyone to just start creating soundboards for these shows. Like, we're going to dial that back. But that's my point for why I think Stroud is just to me the worst pick

because Ryan did take Caleb, who wasn't my number one pick, but I did have a very close number two, which was CJ Stroud. There you go. And it's really, it really is just about the rushing. Like if you tell me Stroud and Burrough scored the exact same amount of points next year, I'd be like, yeah, you know. So that's it. That's round one.

We're moving in a round two. And again, guest of honor. we're going back to Paul Patterson. Oh, gosh. Okay. All right. I think this one will be more well received by this group, and that's Christian McCaffrey at 204.

Now, the game is specifically in a startup, right? Worst pick in a startup. I think Christian McCaffrey might be the single worst pick you can make in a startup because unlike every other player that you might take in the first two rounds, he locks you in to a very specific type of, of roster construction as a 28-year-old running back, like you can't draft Christian McCaffrey and then build yourself a, you know, productive struggle team

or like, I don't know, we'll see what happens this year kind of team. Like, if you draft Christian McCaffrey, you're saying I'm going to win the championship in year one and I'm going to build it around this 28-year-old running back. The fact that he goes ahead of Breece Hall, on average, is kind of outrageous to me. Like, Breece Hall could very easily be the RB1 in fantasy this year, and he's five years younger than Christian

McCaffrey going ahead of Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray like those are foundational building blocks and dynasty this ADP just seems like not real to me like it just it seems like a hologram I don't know so Christian McCaffrey is the worst pick on the board I had a backup in case I didn't go first because I figured somebody would take that but I'm just going to say like don't take Christian McAfrey in the second round of the startup yeah I mean that's the reason I didn't pick it is I just don't think that our listeners will encounter Christian McCaffrey actually going at a brief hall very frequently, but I totally agree with everything you said. I think even where he does go in most of my startups, he's never gone at a place where I've even

remotely considered clicking his name. I do think it really boxes you in. It'll be no shock to anyone who my name is going to be. Sam LaPorte at the 211 is, I guess my version of the C.J. Stroud thing with Tom. It is kind of funny because I think that there are some similarities between these two players, actually, and the arguments, although we will wind up diametrically opposed. You know, Tom sort of made the case for Stroud is okay. He had this exemplary rookie year, but there's other sort of cheaper, similar archetypes available that are just a little bit older. And I would make the same argument for Leporta where you go down as much as four rounds into the fifth round where, you know, you see Mark Andrews going. who I think is pretty much a 50-50 bet to outscore him this year. You get guys like Brock Bowers that are multiple rounds later.

You get Kyle Pitts multiple rounds later. It just seems like the opportunity cost on Leporta relative to the other positions is substantially higher than for other tight ends. And I guess what is different is like, I believe Stroud is a very singular player. I didn't agree with Burrow and Herbert when they got pushed up to the 103. I think Stroud's year is in a very different caliber, especially when you look at the type of receivers that he raised up.

I think this is one of those once-in-a-lifetime athletes in a way that I don't feel that Leporta is. I think that Leporta last year, you know, obviously goes without saying that when we're talking about a rookie season and comparing him to veterans, that we want to give him grace and his season was exemplary, but like 1.77 yards per outrun last year, and a lot of that is because despite a very strong 0.24 targets per out run,

he is that lower A-DOT role. That was also the true of him in college. That's probably what we should expect from him going forward. Resulting yards per run is substantially lower than Kelsey and McBride, who are both above two. It's lower than Mark Andrews. It's lower than George Kittle. It's like right comparable to David Njoku. You look at his expected fantasy points last year.

He winds up being the tight end one overall in points per game. In expected fantasy points per game, he was fifth. He was behind Kelsey, Hawkinson, Engram, and Njoku. Really overperforms in the touchdown department. I think that you're banking on his skill, of course, is getting better as a a player coming into this year, which is probably true. That it has to be true in a very massive way. It has to be true in a way that doesn't get flattened by some of the inevitable regression.

When you look at how much of that efficiency is just coming in from a touchdown perspective, it's not like he was outperforming consistently on a yardage generation perspective. Brian is trying to get me to argue against myself by bringing up James and Williams, who I just think doesn't have a high enough ADP for us to get to that round tonight. Otherwise, I'd bring up. Yeah, that was my backup pick. And I totally agree. Like, just the other options at lower price points later that I like just as much.

It's just really, really hard to justify the click there. I'm so upset that James and Williams made the show. Can we not talk about? I understand we're sick of talking about Sam Leporto on the show. I'm sick of talking, hearing, thinking about James and Williams. Why? Brian Brian like It's got to be on purpose

Down by my Jameson Like I got an extremely unnecessary Jameson William's side swipe in my last article They'd really upset Brian Where I was talking about the wide receiver window And I was like yeah then it ends here And then there's Jameson who's the single worst click And all of best ball on

What that is Why he's even drafted at all Anyway Didn't need to mention his name at all Chose to he didn't like Amazing. Literally not an NFL player. Don't understand how he's drafted.

Expensive Jalen Geyton and people got to realize that. He's just going to, he's just going to, I'm not talking about James Williams. You can't talk me into it. Ryan? Oh, man. So, I mean, yeah, these guys took like the two fairly obvious ones. I'm going to go with more of a thought experiment here, I guess. And I love this player.

I have exposure. I have drafted him in the second round. So this is like a very, very distant third worst pick for me. But Garrett Wilson in terms of the, I had Jacob's upset. You're going to hate this take. You don't know ball. You're going to hate what this take is. Garrett Wilson, I look across this entire round.

And if I ask myself who here has the least value insulation, I think it's actually Garrett Wilson. And the reason for that is, look, I believe Garrett Wilson's amazing, amazing prospect, blah, blah, blah, watch him, nerd. He's great. Yes, I get all of those things. But if we get into a third year of Garrett Wilson, not really producing any sort of fantasy points, and this assumedly comes via Aaron Rogers being really washed or getting hurt again or whatever it is decides to leave in week six for an important ayahuasca retreat or something. It doesn't really matter how we get there. This is a very fragile situation, and it's very hard to project Garrett Wilson to be having

a lot of, like, catchable volume next year in 2025. So if he doesn't produce this year, and I just wonder if we get almost like the inverse of like the Drake London effect from this year where it's oh okay Kirk Cousins is here like all is forgiven I feel like just our patience with Garrett Wilson especially if there's not any sort of projectable like sun on the horizon for him after this year is he is just plummeting down draft boards and it's just I can see a scenario where it's hard to imagine Garrett Wilson producing in 2025 after a disappointing And that I can't super say that about anyone else here, aside from arguably like Jordan Love, maybe, or Christian McCaffrey for being old.

But that's pretty much it, right? I don't think anyone else in this round, I can easily imagine a scenario where they're not giving you far above replacement level production in 2025. Is Stafford that much less fragile than Rogers? I'd say so. Like, we thought he was retiring, like 14 months ago. That's fair. Yeah, I mean, but also, Nakuwa has the best rookie season of all time, right? Like, he has more, like, points on the board, so to speak.

But he didn't have to play with Zach Wilson. That's true. Yes. I agree, Jacob. That's why I'm drafting Garrett Wilson. I'm not an anti-Garrett Wilson person in any format at all. But if I'm nitpicking between the lines here of who can I pick out. out as my third worst pick, I guess it's him.

Right. And because I don't have one outside of the other picks that you guys had mentioned, I'm just going to tack on with Ryan. At least with somebody like Pukinakua, we know for now he still has Sean McVeigh, right, who is a fantasy goldmine coach. He's one of the best play callers in the NFL. It's not just if Aaron Rogers is bad or done.

And then maybe they get a rookie quarterback. That's already more of a coin flip. and people want to remember because of how lucky we have been with rookies, with some real superstars on top of that, then it's what, is Hackett still around? Do they get a new offensive coordinator? Is that offensive coordinator bad at calling plays?

Does they just end up with the next Luke Getsy? What does their head coach end up? Like, there's more areas for Garrett Wilson to see a down swing, right, then and end up in DJ Moore Purgatory, where we're just hoping and praying he gets a good, good coach, a good quarterback, a nice system, and he finally breaks out, then I don't need good. I just need Don Zach Wilson. Like, I'm pretty, I feel pretty good that if we have like the 25th best quarterback and

offensive coordinator in the league, that that he can be a top six fantasy wide receiver. I just need like not, I just need not the worst quarterback in the league, just one time. That's all, like, I just want not like multiple tiers worse than the second worst quarterback. I get what you're like, I, I, 100% get it. But just to add to Ryan's point, there is a murkier, darker storm on the horizon if we don't see it, especially with how fantasy players react to not actually seeing it. It's just the Kyle Pitts argument, but for a wide receiver, not a tight end that we were hoping was the number one guy, right? But to be clear, we all actually think Garrett Wilson's like a perfectly fine second round startup pick, right?

Yes. Yes. The show is worst picks in every round. I'm just checking like, I think there's a lot of bad picks in this round. Yeah, I think Marvin Harrison and Jim. James are both worse picks, honestly.

I think Harrison's a bad pick. I think Gavry's a bad. But for the standouts, I agree. For the standouts, I think those would be the three for me. Number four would be Gibbs, but I'm,

I'm just fighting as Wilson. Wilson would be like, I think of everyone on this list, I think I'm ranking Wilson like four straight out. I would put value. At value, he would be my third favorite pick of the round. But I'm taking, so I just recently took Garrett Wilson at 2-4.

Like, I'm happy pushing the button. But I just wanted to add on to Ryan's point that I see where his process is coming from, where you could be hold. Ryan doesn't know ball. That's not. Let me go first for once. And I can take a low hanging fruit and then throw it at you guys when you have to take the trains. Yeah, let's see what else go first.

We're going to take a quick break when we come back. We're going to dive into round three. You're going to want to sit tight. We're just getting warmed up. It's the Nissan Black Friday event where you can, wait, wait, wait. Isn't it like a month long now? Nissan Blackfri Month? Does that work?

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Your first up, round three, keeping in mind, this is a third round reversal format, Superflex, tight end premium. It starts to matter at this point here. Third round reversal, Ryan, your number one worst pick in the third round. Oh, okay. Well, we're at the point where we can pick on

running backs now. So I might just have to go that direction. And this is not like the most egregious running back in in like this chunk of rounds three through five. But I don't get it with Travis ETN. I sort of get it in that you. Yes, he was really productive last year. I've done the show in a few weeks and Ryan was just like, I'm going to just get angry at all of Jacob's favorite players. Yeah, sorry, Jacob. No, Travis E.TN's a bad pick. here. He is. So, sorry, let me make the case a little bit.

Okay. Yes, Travis E.TN last year, definitely like a plus pick to make in all formats. It worked out pretty well for you. Yes. Early on in the season, basically 80%, 70% snapshot, Bell cow was awesome, was scoring tons of fantasy points. Kind of gets banged up around week eight, week nine, whenever that London game was, I think. And from then on, he is.

just kind of a run-of-the-mill, like 60-ish percent opportunity-shared type of back, not really providing anywhere close to that like RV1 very far above replacement level types of fantasy points, right? I think Travis E.TN is great, but kind of the drumbeat we've been hearing this entire offseason is we want to keep ETN fresh. I think they took that to heart, right? I think early on in the season, especially when the whole Tank Vigsby experiment was very much not working out. They were happy to ride ETN until he got hurt.

And now in that coaching staff's eyes, they need to not give it. They need to not do that again. I think that's just seared into their brains. And it's very unlikely that ETN is ever going to see like that real like 70 plus percent opportunity share belkow type of workload. And when this is in round three, when I can take a wide receiver that I like instead of that, instead of a running back that is all running backs are ultimately just kind of like falling knives at this point. Once you get past really the top three, I'm not going to catch the Travis ETN falling knife. I'm just going to draft Jalen Waddle, who I think is amazing. I'm just going to draft Drake London.

Like, that's, I'm just going to go that route every single time and just feel like I, I've kept more flexibility in my roster. And then I'm just going to get similar running back production a few rounds later. I think part of this is because he had the week 17 game against Carolina because five of his six best games came in the first eight weeks of the year, like you mentioned. He did next to nothing and then he got a cake matchup against Carolina. and Jacob, you might remember, but former host, Billy the Stone, mentioned that a player's lasting memory of doing something positive is at the end of the year is going to carry more weight than any of the negative. So ETIN having that week-winning, you know, championship week, in my opinion, is partially boosting some of this stock because we remember him fondly. You like ETIN. I message you about a part of your write-up on his stock.

him mentioning how he had his fifth year option picked up and you were happy with him at RB6. When I texted you're like, yeah, I still don't necessarily want to take him there. Do you want to dive into that a bit? Yeah. So I had a rule for coming up with my picks for this pre-show, which is my rule was that like, first of all, this ADP is just like, I know for a fact it's not representative at the running back position of leagues that I draft in.

My guess is that it might not be representative of some of the leagues, at least that you draft in in the sense that all. these running backs go a lot higher than my personal experience. For that reason, I was just not going to pick any running backs unless I disagree with their positionally. So Travis ETN, like clearly not a good pick at the 311. I'm not going to debate that. I do also have him ranked as my dynasty RB6.

So I'm not going to push back on where he is positionally. And I do think a lot more fondly of him than I think my co-host do. He has my highest drafted running back in the first. four rounds in bestball, for instance. I think that ETN's talent profile has really undergone some level of character assassination after last year that I don't personally think is his fault. He had pretty brutal efficiency numbers over the last half of last year, no doubt about that. But we still saw it pretty strong in the first portion of last year. His mistackles force for attempt actually got higher from 2022 into 2023.

three. And you look at the overall context of this offensive line. They were horrendously graded last year. I thought their scheme made no sense. It wasn't like there was any other running backs in this offense that were showing any sort of efficiency. You go back just one year to 2022. There's where Travis E.TN is third in the entire NFL and rush yards over expectation for attempt on 220 attempts. He was first among all backs with 200 or more attempts. Similarly, first in success rate relative to expectation. and of all running backs over 200 attempts, second overall. I think that that was a little bit more indicative of the talent level of Travis E.TN

or at least something into the middle. And you mentioned the narrative of, oh, they don't want to get them carries, they don't want to use them as the same way. Well, what do they do this offseason, right? I understand the words. The actions were they brought back Bjornis Johnson, they still tank Bigsby. The only guy they added was a day three running back in air quotes,

because I'm pretty sure he's more so a kick returner than he is anything else, Kailen Robinson. And then they picked up his fifth year option and they voluntarily agreed to pay him over $10 million in 2025. So I feel quite good about ETN from a talent perspective. And I feel very secure that he is going to be the lead back for minimum two more years after getting a 50 year option picked up. I'm, like I said, I'm not picking up to the 311, but I do like him at the RB6 in Dynasty. I have him over Devon A. Chan, which I imagine is going to get people very upset. I would disagree with that one, yeah. But I get it.

He's way easier to acquire outside of drafts than he is in drafts, which is my biggest point. I do just want to point out that Tank Biggsby had a higher miss tackles force per touch than ETN did last year. So there you go. The Tank Biggsby, by the way, this will be like, I mean, it's a low, it's a, it's a low stakes rant because I understand he's an 18th round vestball pick. So I probably shouldn't get that mad about people like hyping up an 18th round basketball pick. What the fuck is wrong with you, people? Did you watch Tank Biggsby last year? Like, either he was shaving points or he's the worst football player on earth.

This guy is undraftable. He's the worst football player in the entire league. Jonas Johnson is taking this guy's job by week eight. Be serious. You mean by week one. Yeah. Like, I don't know. The Tank Biggby Renaissance is bizarre a world.

Yeah. I'll replay this if I'm wrong on. And I like Tank Bigsby as a prospect. but like it is not happening for that individual. Like that was ghastly last year. I'll eat this if I'm wrong, but like this is, it's not a take lock thing.

Like I like Tank Biggsby too much to prospect. Like hand up was wrong, but it is ridiculous. Like that guy is like multiple tiers worse than the second worst running back in the league. Yeah. The chat GPT generated Doug Peterson quotes about how they love Tank Biggsby

and are going to get him involved. ever really destroyed the discourse and his value right now. Yeah, it's kind of insane. No, but I, again, I agree with Ryan. I think that is the most egregious pick of this round, bar none. I'm going to go over to Paul for your worst pick. Yeah, I gave myself a similar rule to Jacob. Well, in the sense that if I picked a running back as my worst pick,

I also picked another player as like a so the show didn't just become hey casuals draft running backs too high don't do that like that's not really the point um so for me I was kind of between two um I don't like really where either of these guys are going but I'm I'm just going to say Tyree kill for most of the same reasons that I said McCaffrey and it's not even like he's that far off yeah I hate points late and I like I just like rebuilding I like my nice screenshots. You know, I keep track to the average age of all my players,

and I want to make sure that's like 23 at the highest. No, I mean, late in the third round, late in the third round is fine with me. It's like, I just can't do it over specifically Trevor Lawrence, but also Dak Prescott, Malik neighbors.

The value insulation and upside of those guys, it's just not worth passing up, especially in a startup when I'm trying to build a team that makes sense. For the same reason, McAfri, I don't want to be drafting a 30-year-old wide receiver and then trying to shoehorn all of my other picks to fit around that particular choice. Because if I don't, then I'm like, okay, I have to make sure I can trade away Tyree Kill for a profit, or I can later on go acquire all the players that I need to make this year my year. I just like to maintain my flexibility, and I don't think I don't think I could pass up the

talents that are going after him. Yeah, it's fairly. He said it's kind of a specific build piece. I, I too have a hard time at 302. I have a hard time with 302 with that. I would take all four quarterbacks ahead of him at that 302, not the running backs, but you're right. There are just other receivers there that I would much rather take. Three oh two. One quarterback I would not take over Tyree Kelle that's on this list. That's yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, me too. That's clearly by miles and miles and miles, the worst pick of round three.

Here are some quarterbacks who had more expected fantasy points per game than Brock Ferdie last year. Gardner Minchew, Aidan O'Connell, Jake Browning, Tyson, Bajent, Nick Mullins, Deshawn Watson, Tua, Gough, Derek Carr, Will Levis,

Bryce Young, Daniel Jones. Like, he had 14.4 expected fantasy points per game last year. I understand there's some, the end zone got in the way effect to that, where when teams are especially efficient, it can actually reduce their expected fancy points. But we're basically talking with Purdy. It's like the extreme version of the Stroud conversation, where you get a guy who doesn't run, but also a team that doesn't pass very much.

So it has to be entirely on efficiency. And it's a quarterback who unlike C.J. Stroud, I don't think is very good. So I'm entirely reliant on the environment. And it's also an environment that's good, very good for his efficiency, not very good for his volume. I think he will continue to outperform his expected fantasy points and be a totally reasonable real-life quarterback for as long as he's in this confluence of Shanahan and Iyuk and Debo and Kittle and McCaffrey and all that.

But it's definitely going to be a spot where I think we're top end is that he's like roughly hanging out at this quarterback one, quarterback two borderline. And if that starts to dissipate, I think if there's substantial downside risk, I don't really see him as a different bet than say like a Jared Gough. I see him as like a demonstrably worse bet than Tua, who I think is a pretty similar bet, just better.

And then I don't understand why you go next to Dak and Lawrence at all, especially Dak. I mean, I get that I have like kind of a ballmower take on Lawrence that isn't entirely backed by the stats. But like him going ahead of DAC is like nonsensical to me. Yeah, that's who I was between with the other pick. I think that's definitely. Definitely all true.

So I agree I'd take DAC over him. I don't think Purdy's anywhere close to the worst pick here. I'll be the fish that will draft the guy that had the highest yards per attempt average since like the 1950s or something ridiculous like that is with the best offensive head coach of, I'm not going to call him of all time, but it is clearly with the head coach who has the system that is very much what defense is. cannot deal with in the NFL right now. It's what literally every single team is trying to copy.

I don't understand why we hate fantasy points. So I understand like the expected fantasy points saying, yes, the volume's not good. I think the 49ers had the fewest total targets. I might be lying about that in the league last year, right? They're not like they're this is literally like an Atlanta Falcons under Arthur Smith type of offense volume-wise. So I completely get that. But look, it's like it's also possible that Purdy is just going to continue taking advantage of this situation for at least a few years, right? I understand that they're going to have to figure out who's getting paid if Iyuk staying or

whatever. But I don't think he's anywhere close to like the worst pick here. Yeah, I'm taking DAC over him, I think I prefer him to Tua, or it's close-ish, I guess, but yeah, I don't think he's anywhere close to him. If you prefer Purdy to Tua, I don't. I have more faith in Tua as a player from a long-term perspective, and I think they're basically the same in like this-season perspective. But if you like Pretty Better, that's fine. I don't have that much but he's like a round and a half more expensive than Tua. And then like we're, like, I'm taking May easily over. I mean, I would just, if I'm already, already, if I've already gone on to this sort of, like, Ivey Purdy, two-end golf as these, like,

obviously they're capable quarterbacks, like the quote-unquote system quarterbacks, I don't, I don't want to pay for the most expensive of that three-sum, because I think the opportunity cost is way lower where Goff and two ago than where it is where Pretty Goes. I don't even really like Goffin, I prefer them. Yeah, I'm more inclined to agree with Ryan. I mean, we're talking about the guy that led the NFL in fantasy points per opportunity for quarterbacks that played 10 games, right? That's including rushing stats.

Like per time he touched the ball, he just produced. I don't think we should hate fantasy points either, considering his situation's not going to change drastically enough for me. Again, prefer DAC over him. Yeah, if you just want production, I think you're really looking at Brock Purdy's fine. Not at all the worst pick in this round, in my opinion. But we'll go with Jacob. other than Purdy, who was the worst pick in this round for you?

Well, I picked Purdy. I put off a big on such a long side tangent. I wasn't sure if that was just Jacob's pick or that was... I actually like every other pick here, except for ETN at, like, his fake cost. Okay, awesome.

Let me regroup after that wild. I honestly, you tied that in so perfectly. I thought it was just an aside. I almost wasn't ready. For me, my next thing is going to be Jonathan Taylor for a lot of the same reasons that was mentioned for ETN. Obviously different in terms of the efficiency. But we're just talking about a running back.

He's into a second contract. Don't know if his value is going to survive another injury, right? That's also something that I'm looking at with this. Do I think Taylor can be a very good player? Of course I do. I'm not blind. I hashtag watch the games. I hashtag look at the data over at the fantasy points.

data suite. But if you're asking me to take him over guys like Jalen Waddle, Trey McBride, Drake, Lenin, Chris Olive, I simply cannot do that. I just can't. Even his RB1 season was one of the worst RB1 seasons we'd seen in a while. So what is

his upside really? For me, it's not good enough to be taking him at the 307. The offense is going to be great. Maybe we get Richardson more than two, three games. Love that. Does Richardson continue to vault your touchdowns at the goal line?

Maybe we don't know. I just think you're taking on a lot of risk with the RB5 at 307. Same thing. Love them outside of drafts. Not paying for them in drafts. So for me, the worst pick is definitely going to be Jonathan Taylor. Let's head to round five.

Sorry, we're still in round three. This had to round four. Let's head to round four. And let's see how many times we can avoid not talking about the running backs. I haven't done a running back yet. I've been saving it for this round. They're just so.

I was going to say, there's only one good answer for this that's not a running back, I think, in this round. So I think one really good answer. We should have structured the show that way? Like, what's the one not named a running back? I look, I had, I restricted myself thoroughly. I prepared for eight full

rounds and I only picked three running backs. Oh, damn. Okay, well, I haven't done one. I need a first three rounds. Are two of them in this round? back. Yeah, I don't even know if I want to go first because there's two guys that I think are equally bad here, but I'll go with one of them.

Jacob's notorious Devon A-chan H-Han hater, as we know. Yes. I'll go with one of them. I'll go with the one that's probably the less popular punching bag. I'll be a little bit more brave, and I'll say Kyron is my least favorite pick of this round. Oh, I thought he was the popular punching bag, really? Oh, wow. I thought I thought everybody was going to be piling onto Barclay, but.

that's exactly where I was going. Yeah. Who, for the record, I also think, is not a good pick in this room. But Kiron's the one I'll go with, mostly because I just have more of a, I think more of a thought outtake on that one, whereas my Berkeley take is like, old man, basically. So my Kiron Haderade take is with these running backs, right? Like, it's a pretty universal take from best ball to dynasty. to any format that you can just get touches late in drafts.

Like, Javonte Williams projects for a lot of touches. He's very cheap, especially in best ball, Singletary in all formats, Brian Robinson in all formats. These guys project for like 250 touches this year, and they don't cost that much to acquire. So if you're buying on an early running back,

what am I getting that's not touches? Am I getting Devon A. Chan, otherworldly efficiency, great offensive environment, all that stuff. Am I getting, you know, super, human Christian McCaffrey. Am I getting Brees Hall, Bejohn Robinson, these incredible all around Supreme

Blue Chip talents. With Kieran, I feel like I'm just kind of getting what Josh Jacobs was this time last off season, which is when you zoom out, it's just a guy who's just a running back who got a lot of touch consolidation, but without a real superpower.

And then we all felt like we kind of had to respect Josh Jacobs enough because of how hot he ran in 2022, draft him a little bit above probably what he actually is. I view Kairn as being that guy this year where not actually that great of a pass catcher. He's a good runner, you know, has some strong metrics in terms of his consistency, his tacklevation, but like not an explosive runner.

And you're really just paying for touch consolidation. They go in the draft Korm in the third round. We'll see how that turns out. I'm of the mindset that they're going to use Korm a lot more than I think some other people are. I think they're going to run a two drive to one drive rotation where each of them gets all the snaps on the drive that they're on. to me that makes the most sense of why they went out and tried to basically clone Kairn Williams, get a guy you can also play as an all-purpose back, so they don't have to make those substitutions in drive,

but they can still get the undersized backs and time off the field. And you just take him down to a 60, 65 percent touch share with how little they throw to the backs in that passing game. And I think he becomes indistinguishable from your Rashad White, Isaiah Pacheco, kind of Joe Mixin, a lot of these guys. And, you know, who knows, he's young, obviously. see the upside, but I don't know that he has like that kind of super power that gives him the staying power.

He sticks out to me as a poor pick here. Okay. Fair points. Ryan, I saw that. I'm just, I'm deciding if I want to, like, obviously I'm not drafting Kyron Williams at the 410 in a startup or whatever. I'm just deciding if I want to have like the Kyron Williams fight right now, which is not

even really a Kyron Williams fight like in Dynasty because I actually the thing you didn't say, Jacob, in terms of like, what are you getting out of? of a running back that is more than just like a bunch of touches. The first thing that springing in my mind is like job security, right? Like I feel decently confident that a Reese Hall or a Bejohn Robinson is going to have a similar role two years from now, right? And I'm not going to make that argument for Kyron Williams, of course. I just think not so much in Dynasty, maybe in like even a basketball format where he's in

round three. And then I pay a little more attention. into like there's all of these projected touches. I agree with your take in terms of like the Rams want to use just one back on a drive and not make substitutions. I just see the world where it's instead of like every two to one, it's more like three to one or four to one, especially at the start of the season. And so, I mean, suddenly we're looking at kind of almost like this year's Travis Etyn

where we completely overreacted to a day two pick. and we completely just kind of let a guy fall who had a lot of projectable volume. I don't think Kyron Williams is as talented of a runner as Travis Eton necessarily, but Sean McVeigh, that's a pretty good system to be in, does have a pretty long history of producing really amazing fantasy football running back production. So I see the upsides to Kyron from like a this year perspective more than it sounds like you do. I'm still, he probably still is up there as my worst pick in terms of like a dynasty draft, but I just wanted to get that in there.

I see it in best ball. Like I, even people that, you know, I agree with on a lot of best ball takes with have kind of come to the other side of the coin now that he's fallen into the middle eight third and become kind of people. I just straight up prefer ETN to him. I prefer Pacheco to him. So I'm not going to get there. But I definitely could see how I'm wrong there.

I mean, I can see how I'm wrong there in Dynasty, too. But I think what you have to pay is so much higher that I'm more confident saying it's probably not worth the price of admission. No, I think those are all really, really strong points. Well, Ryan, let's kick it back to you. Let's get who you think is the worst pick in the fourth round. Do you want me to leave like the obvious one? I guess we kind of talk about Berkeley. I'm not taking my back.

I'm leaving them alone. That's not my pick here. I'll take mine. Okay. I, so. You do not have to force one. Let's keep that in mind. Like, right?

Like, we can just settle that we agree that it's Kyran. Like, you don't got to force it. I mean, you can if you want to. Okay. No, I'll pick on someone else. I think at Titan 3 and it's, I mean, it's kind of whatever. I should have stopped you. It's kind of whatever in terms of, I don't think Dalton Kincaid actually goes

tight in three super often. I would be very happy. I would be totally fine taking Dalton Kincaid as like the tight end six or the tight end five, like on the four or five turn. I don't think that's egregious. But just like specifically him as the tight end three where the splits with Knox active are just absolutely horrendous. Like this is not even really a startable tight end last year when Dawson Knox was there. just in terms of like the a dot like i i just am not getting excited about dalton kinkate as my dynasty tight end three i think he's fine yeah i i would take him like wherever i i wouldn't complain if

he's the one that falls to the end of this tight end tier and i'm taking him but he's just the profile i think i prefer the least out of them and for some reason he's the most expensive i agree i just fear that he's going to be my new hawkinson of like this tight end who i just Not actually that good. He's just going to spend his whole life with Josh Allen and a bunch of bomb-ass receivers, and he's just going to, like, score a lot of fantasy points anyway. Yep. Yeah.

Ryan, I thought you were the Brock Bowers hater. I mean, I could say, I could make, like, the same argument about Brock Bowers. Really, it all just comes back to, like, give me pits and Andrews. Like, and that's just the stance I'm going to take. But, I mean, I get it with Bowers, right? Like, whatever, most unbelievable tight end generational tight end prospects since Kyle Pitts. Can I ask you one question?

I mean, I agree. You're spitting with the King H. stuff. I'm in agreement with you on that. What leads, what leads you to be like pro-pits, but anti-Bowards? That combination of takes, I personally find confused. I mean, it's really like a, and maybe I'm too, like, redraft-brained here or whatever. But even if we, okay, let's take, like, their best ball 80Ps right now.

Pitts is the tight end six pretty solidly, I think. And Bauer is it tight end 11, 12-ish right now, I want to say? I haven't done drafts in the last couple weeks. I don't know. I think that's too low, but I think he's nine. Okay, sure. Yeah. So I just, number one, just in terms of I'm comparing their offenses,

I'm projecting them for this year, I can genuinely get excited about the pitch projection. I wrote entirely too many words about Kyle Pitts in mine and Scott Barrett's recent tight-end values article for Underdog, go check that out. But basically, I think Pitts is one of the biggest values that the tight-end position we've seen in years. And I am not, I swear to God, you guys all have to believe me,

I was not saying that last year. I was definitely not saying that the year before. I was kind of been kind of lukewarm on Pitts up until now. But when you just look at the difference, in going back to like offensive environment in terms of just the amount of catchable targets available in those Arthur Smith Falcons offenses versus what Kirk Cousins has provided over the last few years. It is literally a 50% difference in just the size of the passing volume pie.

If we get Pitts on, if he stays, I think there's two ways Pitts wins. one is he stops like having to punch so far above his weight on all these like very downfield routes that are incredibly volatile and hard for a tight end to consistently win on especially against outside corners then he just gets to be like a normal tight end in the slot all the time and he's and he's awesome and he makes guys miss constantly and it's a high octane offense and he scores a ton of touchdowns and it's great right or he stays as like this incredibly long ad hoc guy i believe he has has led like all relevant tight ends in average depth of target of his entire every single year

of his career so far. If they continue using him like that and the targets are now coming from Kurt Cousins, that I get really, really excited about that too, right? T.J. Hawkinson with Kirk Cousins, it is a clear top two, top three tight end every single week. And I, but now I air drop pits into that who I think there's a very good chance he's better as a talent than T.J. Hawkinson, I'm just really into that. So, yeah, I don't know. Maybe I, maybe all of my anti-Kincade anti-vowers is literally just like I have Kyle Pitts blinders and I don't

want to draft any other tight end other than him. You're brave, brave man. Yeah, just to like put, get you into my world, that's a little bit where it comes from. I'm taking Pitts this year because I can't live in the world where Pitts breaks up and I don't have any, but I'm not sharing the optimism. I'm, I'm pretty worried on Pitts from his talent. So, and then, I can tack on to the Bowers thing because I can relate it back to the conversation we had previously where there was a really real world possibility where he ends up in a spot in a situation where we are just on our knees begging and pleading a lot like people have for pits for a couple of years like we had with Injoku for so long. People held on to Jonu Smith and Mike G for far too long for hyper athletic tight ends. I mean, it ended up paying off from Djoku seven years later or whatever. But there was a real spot where he could see Bowers being in a spot.

where now we're praying and hoping rather than reaping the rewards for drafting him in the mid-fourth. So I agree. For me, Bowers and Kincaid, I'm just going to piggyback my pick on that. Bowers and Kincaid are about even for me because I, too, would rather trade back to the end of the round and take pits or move for Andrews. I likely have already selected McBride by now, but, you know, I would move down for someone like Andrews.

So for me, Bowers and Kincaid to me are in the same. spot for where I'm worrying, even though I view them as two completely different players. I think Bowers is a significantly better player. But if you were to tell me that two years from now, we're all hoping that Vegas gets a quarterback that isn't someone like Minchu or AOC, and we haven't seen the upside yet, I would not blink twice at that being a real world scenario and possibility. It is a huge gamble, especially for people that have been scorned. by Kyle Pitts as the generational prospect tight end and are now having to imagine themselves doing it

again. I think we've been a little bit warped by just how bad the Kyle Pitts situation is. Like there are bad situations, but like that's just not a normal bad situation. Like Gardner Minshu last year gave Michael Pittman a 30% target share and he scored like 16 and a half points per game. And like I don't think Michael Pittman's that good. like Devante Adams is 31 years old he's probably not on the Raiders next year like Brock Bowers could very easily be the number one target for this offense and I don't think that we're ever

going to find ourselves in a scenario where like they're throwing the ball 27 times a game and the other thing is like Bowers isn't like Pitts in the sense that Pitts is a guy that you have to like use him a certain way like you have to be like smart about how you use him because he has these skills but they're like not normal tight end skills Brock Bowers is just like an amazing normal tight end that you can just use like a normal tight end

and you can give them a million targets. Like, I don't know. I think that the situational concerns about Brock Bowers are just dramatically overstated. I don't think they are because we've seen it with tight ends so many times. Right? Yeah, tight ends that suck.

We've seen it with tight ends so many times. We, it just, I think it's still very reasonable. I think we're being too nice Cal Pitts. I think, I think that Cal Pitts is, I think, some of Kyle Pitts's problems were Arthur Smith problems and some of them were Mariota and Ritter problems and some of them were PCL problems and some of them were Kyle Pitts can't block problems. And I don't think, you know, everybody prayed for Bowers PCL and I have no concerns

about his blocking. And then, you know, we'll see. I think obviously I think he's about to have Gardner Minchu and EOC problems, but certainly both have to get-see problems. So it's an ideal spot but that upside upside case that we want to make with bowers i mean if you're telling me as upside as gardener minchu yeah i just think i think i think that pits thing is sketch man i think like i said i'm not going to be out i refuse to be out because i'm not going to i'm not going to sit on the sidewise watch all people dancing so i'm still drafting them i'm still above market in every format but like i don't think that that's smart i'm purely doing it to avoid a therapy bill um i think if you want to bet on the best ball that's really the place to get super over

weight. I think that, I mean, here's the thing, right? Here's the thing. If Kyle Pitts comes out, if Cal Pitts comes out and he's 61% route participation pits again, and he's not bringing any tackles like the first month of season, it's over, over. It's round 14 of startups next year over. Right? It is.

Exactly. That's why Bowers has to go ahead of pits because the downside risk is so dramatic. That's to me, at least to me. I think they're close, but like it's just too scary. to take Pitts over him when like like Jacob said it could be so it could be so over so fast like the upside's there too I I fully acknowledge the up oh yeah I just think I think it is a wide band play this year because we're I think we're we're assuming a lot um best ball obviously it's fine because he sucks on your best ball team it's not that big of a deal Tom can I ask you're just going to say best ball as many times as we like um right sentence no I'm very huge to your audience does play seasonal fancy football I almost sent you this, Tom. There was like a Reddit thread on the fantasy football subreddit this week that was basically asking, does anyone know any podcast that don't constantly bring out Bestball?

And I'm like reading through this thread. And I'm like, why would you care about this so much? Why would you be so offended when Best Ball comes up? But apparently that is, there are people like Tom out there. Are you sure that account? Wasn't like Thomas Pippel? they were all of Thomas's alt song. You want to know, no, I'm ending this right now.

You want to know the reason. Also, shout out Ryan McDowell. Happy to see you in the chat. I think it was the first time I'm seeing you. You're an absolute legend. Awesome. We appreciate you. However, I just want to point out that Ryan posted in the private chat,

that we were on hour and 15, and we are on round four. If we subtracted the 20-ish, I'm going to say references of best ball, I imagine the show shorter. You read a thousand word blurb about Stefan Diggs that was written by AI, all right? You are contributing to the problem. All right. We're all looking for the guy. That is for, okay, that's for a bit, you know, to help bring some entertainment here.

This is a bit. We're doing it to mess with you. You are not allowed to shame you on what I do in my spare time and what articles written by AI that I am I am not allowed to see. However, as someone that makes the graphics for said program, it says dynasty points at the top. It doesn't say bestball points at the top. It's not even dynasty bestball takes.

Like, I could live with a dynasty bestball take on the dynasty point show. But that's not what we're getting. We're just getting straight. For the record, we've now spent more time arguing about not saying best ball. Tom, can I please tell you the actual. Worst pick in the round four of a start out, please. Wait, no, I need to push back on the Pitts Fund. I'm sorry.

No, he's not the worst picking round four. He's not. You already made the case. You're getting three hours tonight. Forget taking part out. Okay. The worst pick in round four is Jared Goff by a mile. I don't even care.

It's Jared Goff. He, listen, every other player, including Kyron Williams, every single player in round four, has a reasonable shot to finish top five at their position, uh, except for Jared Goff. He, he just literally cannot do it.

Like, he finished QB 16 in points per game in 2022, QB 15 in points per game last season, with a phenomenal cast of Laporta and Amaraa, Brown and Jemir Gibbs and an amazing offensive coordinator of Ben Johnson, who is eventually going to leave and become a head coach somewhere that, like spending your fourth round start a pick so that you, can lock up half a decade of middling QB2 production is like the saddest worst thing that you

could do in this round like I just don't understand what the point of Jared Goff is I agree but it's hard to push back okay we need to move forward faster anyway round five I would like I'm blogger dude fator I put uh I'll put to in that same conversation at the at 4-1 I think to a 4-1 is is also egregious as a little bonus because I did already mentioned. Can I ask you guys? Like, yeah, I don't want to,

we don't have to reopen the whole thing. But like, if you guys don't perform, you guys don't like two in golf here. Like, why is pretty different than these guys? I just really don't understand what makes him different than these.

He's not. He's just been better. Like, again, the most fantasy points per opportunity in football last year. Right, but that's the problem is he doesn't have any opportunities. Jared,

uh, Brock Purdy had a better year last year than Trevor Lawrence has ever had. I mean, okay. Instantly goes for the Trevor Lawrence. But then Tua did. Okay, but if Pertie stats are real, because Tua had the best year of his career and he went down in value. Pardy had the best year of his career and he didn't.

There's obviously a stigma on somebody like Tua. Like, it just is what it is. People are going to tell by him. Okay, so the point isn't to describe why the, markets being a ration. Like if, if there, one is, if two guys are the same, but one has a stigma, I want the one with the stigma. It was cheaper. Like I, like these, I just, I don't get why we give Purdy credit for fake stats. Like to me, to me, if you want to, it's real fantasy points. It's real real fantasy points. What do you mean? They all perjury. They score like the exact

same amount of points. Like Purdy ran slightly hotter last year and he outscored them by like a point. Okay. I don't know. I don't, I don't, I don't want to argue Purdy anymore, honestly. This was like a lukewarm. I don't think he's literally the worst pick in this round. And now I'm being made to defend Brock Purdy. If you want how I square all of this, I think Purdy and Tua, yeah, I think those two are similar. I think those are both pretty decent.

And at that turn, if Pertie was going where Tua was great. Goff, I think, is completely different. He's older, right? Like, whatever, three or four years older. I have less conviction in. his environment in his offensive coordinator in all of that situation stuff. So I would agree with Goff being a significantly worse pick than either of those two. I just want to point out that Tua has also never had a year as good as Purdy did last year.

So I just want to point that out too with Ferris's two against 100 more attempts. It's just what the stats actually show. So we'll just, I just want to look, we've moved on. We're on around five. Okay, let's try to get through it. Before we get gone, enough. Before we get going on this one, we're going to take our last break

before we sail into the next hour and a half. Take a deep breath, everybody. Dynasty podcast for the duration of the evening. My goodness, like if you love Bertie Gothen Tua, you're going to really love round 5 J.J. McCarthy. That's all I'm going to say about this round. Holy, holy, are you ever going to love it? I just got called box score.

It's not a box score when he scored the most fantasy points for opportunity in football. It just is what it is. And then it just happens to line up with the fact that he had better years than the other guys were arguing. Anyway, back in a bit. When you're flying Emirates business class, sipping your favorite cocktail at our onboard lounge, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over. Fly Emirates. Fly better.

You and the Pern-Noele? The pro of the embellage Caducey. But Riesis' to demand? Cote of debalage, is who the mailer? The mull

Reese on beard-arachid make your art of the deballage and the dough and chocolate fornard-pacet, you have to what to end-draining?

For a-trow, and again, this pleasure sucre-sallie, and again, and again. The Pern-N-N-H-Biscuits, you, Tarr-Rise.

There's Ries. There's a Ries. Let's go into round five. I'm going to start with Paul here. All right. Well, the worst pick in round five is also the first pick in round five. If we're excluding the running backs that are obviously fake ADPs that suck,

which is Michael Pittman Jr. He, look, he had a good season last year. Good. Like, not amazing, but really good.

16 points per game. That's useful. That's valuable. I don't think that he's going to repeat that. I think he's going to find himself in a very different type of situation with Anthony Richardson Undercenter as opposed to Gardner Minshu. I just think that the way that those guys play is very different. And I think I've heard Jacob talk about this.

He can probably add to this, especially as the Colts fan in the house. But I just think that the targets think there's going to be less of them. And I think that they're going to be distributed differently. I think the addition of A.D. Mitchell, I think will make a pretty big difference because Alec Pierce can't buy a target to save his life. And I think Josh Downs is a good player who's coming into his own. So I just don't think there's going to be enough there in this type of run first offense

for Pittman, who's not terribly young either anymore to really pay off this type of price. Like I see him as pretty indistinguishable from like a production standpoint to guys going for the next three rounds. And I just don't know why I should be forced to take him ahead of all of those players. Yeah, I don't even need to go this round because Paul took mine and we have plenty of rounds. So I won't add another one. Very much agree. I think we're looking at like Pittman. I think all it's going to take is a few months of pedestrian production for Pittman to be looked at a lot more like a Godwin or McLaren.

It's sort of one of these kind of uninspiring wide receiver two threes that are middle aged than kind of the borderline wide receiver one he is right now. I do think that he's looked at. It hurts me and my soul. 26. That's fair. I think he is, I think a situation is about to get a pretty material downgrade, going from a guy who thrived in the short and intermediate areas of the field to a guy who does not, who succeeds more as a deep ball passer, but does not really where Pittman succeeds the most and always been deployed. And Alec Pierce had 0.104 targets per outrun last year on over 600 reps. that is just such an absolute gift for anyone running in that offense be able to compete with 600 routes of nothing

in terms of how that consolidates the rest of the way. I think that that's going to be, you know, I'm not even the biggest 80 Mitchell Bull, but I'm pretty sure he's better than that. That's like Marquez Valva Scantling numbers from Alec Pierce last year. And yeah, you're going to need to have a high degree of efficiency. Again, cannot be beating the Homer allegations more as I just tear down. all of them in every round.

See, I just wish Pittman wasn't 501 because I would take Pittman over Zay. I'd be fine with like arguing Pittman and Metcalf. I would like Pittman over all of the running backs, right? He and Dell to me side by side, fine. Like Pittman Jr. being the wide receiver 22 off the board and not wide receiver 18, just to me, those four spots feel significant to me.

So that's why I picked. Pitman is like, obviously, I agree with you on the running back stuff. And this was another example of running backs. I don't like their price overall, but I don't know. I'm not going to argue with that much on the positional rankings. But I like Pittman the worst out of all these wide receivers on the screen right here straight on. Oh, interesting. And not only do I like him worse than these wide receivers straight up in Dynasty.

I like him worse than all these wide receivers in redirect. So, and you notice I didn't say best ball. I know. No, you're such a little. So that's why he was the one. set up for me and I'd go even further. There's wide receivers behind him, specifically Higgins and maybe even Pickens that I'm that I like more in the next round. All right. I'll be the one. I'll just say, yeah, it's Josh Jacobs, whatever. Everyone here has

heard a million times why I don't like Josh Jacobs. It's a Jacobs takes out of me. So I'm actually, I'm going to bring up a different player instead. This is the official Marsong-wide podcast network. Yeah, we don't have, we don't have to get in. to Marshawn Lloyd stuff here, or the fact that Jacobs had like one of the least efficient seasons we've ever seen against his weighted opportunity in the last decade, blah, blah, blah, whatever.

Anyways, D.K. Metcalf, I actually want to talk about because kind of what Jacob just said about Pittman in terms of it's going to take like a month of pedestrian production for the whole community to view him very differently. I think the same thing about D.K. Metcalfe, especially

if that is including one of the other two receivers in this offense being at least as good or better than him. Tyler Lockett has outscored D.K. Metcalfe every season of their careers until last year, right? Jackson Smith and Jigba, I understand that kind of on a surface level, like none of the stats like all that inspiring from last year. He there's, so number one, there's literally a clip of him being at a loss for words in terms of good things to say. about Shane Waldron, the outgoing offensive coordinator. That's an awesome one for anyone that hasn't seen it. Definitely go check that out.

Number two, if you do a little bit of like number massaging, you can very easily get to a point where Smith and Jigbo looks interesting. So JISN wasn't really on the field that much, especially on early downs, was not running that many routes. I forget the route chair off the top of my head. but on third and fourth downs, his route share just like increased to like top 12, top 15. Okay, he's a full-time wide receiver. And his first retarget chair was top 10 if you're looking at just third and fourth downs

when he was actually on the field and presumably when he was actually designed as a genuine part of the offense. I'm just having flashbacks to Pete Carroll quotes last summer. talking about, oh, yeah, I mean, like, we'll get him involved as like a third receiver or whatever. That was kind of like the vibe going into the season on JSN just with how that coaching staff was approaching him, which obviously makes no sense given the draft capital investment they had, blah, blah, blah. I don't need to get right in the face about Pete Carroll. But now that this is going to be a Ryan Grubb led offense, we have seen him utilize three wide receivers, all at the same time very well at the college level.

I just think Metcalf kind of has the furthest to fall here. I could see like a bit of a late career renaissance, especially early in the season from a Tyler Lockett, who I do think is still a very talented player and again, has outproduced Metcalf across most of their careers. Or we can see kind of this Jackson Smith and Jigba revelation. Either way, I don't think D.K. Metcalfe, just like running his usual types of routes on the outside and averaging like 11 fantasy points

per game is going to make people excited. It's not going to help you win your fantasy leagues. And yeah, very quickly will be looking at him as like, oh, remember when he came into the league and he was like super ripped and was like Superman and he ate like ate all the candy or whatever. And we do that. Yeah. But now it's it's. It's like, okay, the expectation versus the reality of DK.K. Metcalf's actual fantasy points for your fantasy team throughout his entire career has not really lived up to that.

So he's the one I would pick out in terms of the receivers here that I'm not really into in round five. Yeah, I think that's a great case. I'm excited about the Seattle offense in general. Metcalf to me is someone that you're going to be very ecstatic is your like third wide receiver on your team or your fourth wide receiver on your team. He's also much cheaper to acquire again outside of startup costs. Look, I'm not going to hammer the running backs. All three of these guys to me are egregious. For me, if I'm going to pick a player, it's going to be Travis Kelsey.

For me at 5'4, look, he's going to score points for you this year. I think any year after this, you're hoping he doesn't go away, right? Or we're hoping another injury doesn't come along. where they continue to limit his snaps for the playoffs or something that nature. He's also impossible to trade away at his current price. This is the McCaffrey. This is the Tyree Kill.

When you have him, you just must accept he is rotting away on your roster. If I were to look at this draft board and think if there's a player on here that could cause you to all of a sudden have life get really crazy busy and then see said player who orphaned a team in the next startup that you join. For me, it's 5-4 Travis Kelsey. Yeah. On this list, I mean, again, Josh Jacobs would be number two for me, but again, we have hammered.

Josh Jacobs has this podcast on a list of places he wants to go and cancel forever because of how much we have just trashed that man on this pod. But 5-4- Travis Kelsey, it's just a little much for me. It is much for me because it's, again, it's backing. me into that build? I agree with that for sure. Since I didn't give one, and since I know I'm not going to pick the guy as my favorite,

I'm just going to be real to show, and I'm just going to say, all the people who love faithful, all the ones that I don't. If you find yourself tempted by the siren song of a tour, of a god, of a Brock Bertie, who's not Brock Bertie,

just get it over with. Just draft a cheap one. And I just promise you, There's like no possible safer bet in terms of just ADP moving up. Just ignore those guys. Just take JJ. He also plays in a fake offense. He's a fake quarterback.

He's going to put up a lot of fake fat. And he's going to have the same fancy points as all these guys. I don't like him as much. We've gotten to the May McCarthy stuff about the true upside. But like if you're the type of player who sees the purdy, who sees the two-oves, who sees the goff, who sees us complaining about them and you think we're crazy, just get it over with. It can't fail, I promise.

see it's going to be fine. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, that's fair. Sean, will there be a quick summary in the Discord channel for the worst player in every round mentioned in this show? I'm starting to lose steam here over on the East Coast. Well, Sean, the best part about this is that you will be able to watch the second half. Well, we're not, it's not actually going to be three hours. You're going to be able to watch what you missed over there on YouTube.

And when you're done, you can actually leave a comment on your favorite one of the ones picked. for the worst picks in every round. And the podcast will also be released tomorrow as well. And I will. I really can't win, by the way, with these fake quarterbacks. I just made a pitch to go draft J.J. McCarthy. And people are saying that I'm going at J.J. McCarthy. So that's, you know, I just can't say a nice thing about these guys, I guess.

Okay. Look, I gave my glowing endorsement. That is as glowing of an endorsement as you would be prepared to give. It's the endorsement that I used to. give him a party, right? Now his price has gotten beyond where I think it's good. But like, it's the endorsement that I used to give up Purdy, which is like, yeah, he's going to keep putting up fake stats.

He will. Let's get round six out of the way. We're going to finish tonight with round six. Okay. And then we will do, if enough people want more of this next week or maybe the week after, we will finish this and do rounds 7, 8, 9, 10, and maybe a bonus round to, to, to just to just hammer it through. All right.

John 7, Jake Ferguson. Jeff, so we can. What? Well, I had a whole rant about Jake Ferguson. But if you want my rant about Jake Ferguson, I have it on my substack. So shout out to round seven. We'll get it for you when we bonus round this next week. But let's go round six, worst picks in each round for round six, Paul.

You are a guest of honor. We absolutely love having you here. every single time. Let's kick off this last bit with your pick for the worst player. Thank you, Tom. It's been a lot of fun. I'm talking with you guys. I think, yeah, this one's a little bit.

There's an obvious answer, which I'm going to take because it's easier than the second answer. No, no, no, no, I'm not going to do it, actually. I'm going to, I'm not going to leave. I'm going to leave the obvious one for someone else. And I'm going to go with a player that I feel like I've become, like, just, a legit hater for this player and i and i don't actually hate this player but jordan addison is a guy that i have a lot of trouble rostering thank you thank you it's just so it's all mine yeah i don't i don't have all the all the numbers in front maybe ryan has some good numbers but basically

with jordan addison he ran a bunch of routes in a very fake offense um with a very very good quarterback and kirk cousins who is steaming drake london's career 10 points per game up into the early second round of the format that shall not be named because we know that Kirk Cousins creates fantasy points. And now Kirk Cousins has been swapped out for either a rookie and J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold, probably a combination of the two this season. And I think that's going to be fine. Like ultimately it's going to be fine.

I think the offense is going to be fine. But I just, I think that Jordan Addison's value is going to go down before it goes up. I just don't see how he's going to really provide anything of value this year with this quarterback transition with Jefferson there. Maybe it's early in the year when Hawkinson's out. But like with all three of these guys on the field and those quarterbacks as the options, with Addison's per route numbers last year, like if you look at the time that Jefferson actually played, the target share, the targets per outrun, the yards per outrun, the first three target share,

like all of it was really, really, really bad. Like not like he's not like he's. a bust, but like it's not an indicator that this guy's going to be a difference maker, especially playing alongside another superstar. So like if I'm taking a wide receiver, I either want a guy here that I think can legitimately give me difference making production, you know, give me a guy like Debo Samuel who could, potentially be a wide receiver one, or I'm taking one of these rookies, which is probably what I would do, where I know the value insulation is there.

If it's, if I'm taking a guy, I don't think is going to be a real legit starter for me anyway, I would just rather have the insulation of like a lad macawyer, Brian Thomas Jr. Addison feels like this middle ground where I'm like taking a guy that's young, but they're not a rookie anymore. So some of the like safety is worn off, but I still don't think they're going to give me fantasy points. I don't know. It's just a weird pick here that I don't really want to make.

Yeah, it's just Dotson, right? Like everything I've looked up with Addison during this offseason, I've just tied it back to Dotson's rookie year. So I think you're right. I just think he's a very, question. Not my worst pick on here, but Addison has been somebody that I have been very much.

Addison feels like the wide receiver boy in your draft just doing the bit where he's just hammering nothing but wide receivers for like the first seven rounds. So he feels like he has to take Addison to fit his build. That to me is Jordan Addison. So I'm

right there for you. I tend to agree. Addison strikes me as one of those profiles of like we're drafting because he's young, but like, what's really the point of him being young? Exactly. Because like it's just going to be like, I don't think it's going to be like a very detrimental pick because I think he's just going to like, I think more likely than not he's going to

be valued around where he is for the next like three years. I just don't think he's ever going to be paying that off in terms of production. My worst pick here aside from the obvious one. Um, I'll, look, I'll, I'll be a hater for a player that I've hated on for a while. And I think I'm finally about to be correct. Um, like, what I don't really get the T.J. Ockinson, ADP. Um, he is not going to be playing football until November this year. Every, you know, play football at all this year. Um, like, we're, we're drafting a guy, like,

this guy is not going to be a part of fantasy football relevance in 2024. He tore, uh, he had, he had, tore his ACL in week 17. of last year's season, week 16, week 17, I would say an optimistic timeline is that he is playing week eight, week nine. It is possible he's not even on the football field until week 11, week 12. The chances that he's remotely productive

in this type of ACL timeline in 2024, I think is near zero. You know, Paul just mentioned all this environmental stuff where we're pretty optimistic about McCarthy being like 80% for cousins, but I don't know if he's 100% for cousins. are they going to be able to run at the same pace this year? You know, Ryan's making faces that says he's not so confident.

He's even going to be 80% Kirk Cousins. So I think with Hawkinson, you're looking at a guy up until last year was always living in like 1.68 yards per run, 1.5 yards per hour, 1.4 yards per run. Generally, he was a route consolidator. And I think worked favorably playing with some of these golf cousins, like very fantasy-friendly, intermediate, check it down, get to the check-down read.

type of quarterbacks. We're going to see what kind of offense they have with McCarthy. I just think you're paying pretty darn close to like the Andrews price for Ockinson for players markedly worse. And then most importantly, it's just not going to help your team this year at all. He's going to be 28 years old before the next time he has a chance to really be a meaningful producer, much too high for me. I would just straight up rather have like in Joku, Kittle, and Engram, who can help my team this year. Yeah, I think that's- We hate the Vikings, apparently. We just... Yeah. The reason I was making the face is like, okay, Jacob just got very indignant about talking up J.J. McCarthy and now we're just shitting all over everyone that he's theoretically throwing to this year. So that's just struck. Well, the answer is just to Jefferson. Yeah, fair enough. Yeah.

Oh, that's too good. Ryan. All right. Yeah, I mean, you guys have both skipped over, who I'm assuming you both think is like the obvious one in favor of the guys I probably would have picked. So, out of the park, buddy. Whatever. I'll just take the obvious one. Just so someone you would get like an actual take for me on this round. I don't hate most of the picks here. Like Worthy and Thomas are not like super my vibe. I prefer like the JSNs and especially the T. Higgins here.

So that out of the way. The Rashad White like at RV 13, I think positionally that's maybe a little aggressive. and especially in the sixth round of a startup, you're taking him over Jonathan Freaking Brooks. So Jonathan Brooks is Rashad White last year with his head coach that is going to deploy a bell cow. But it's like if Rashad White was really good, basically. And for some reason,

Rashad White is going before him by this ADP, apparently. I don't know what else it really is to say. I don't even care that much that it's like Rashad White is not official. especially on the ground. He looks really bad and all the nerdy rush yards over expected. He's really mediocre and not inspiring and any of the mistackles force and all that.

I get that. I don't think that's like the problem so much as what is this offense going to look like in a post-canales world? What is just the philosophy of how they split up this backfield going to look like in a post-canales world? I don't think Bucky Irving is like a huge threat on early downs or anything, but if he, it's just weird because you have a backfield theoretically with two guys whose best skill set is on third down is in the past catching game. So if Irving is getting into that like at all, then whites both redraft and dynasty ADP is like a complete, complete disaster. So yeah, it's really just about the fragility of.

that touch projection specifically that I would take umbrage with. So, so yeah, and just the juxtaposition of him and Brooks there. Like, it's so perfect that Canales is now going to do the same exact thing with Jonathan Brooks, but he's actually good. And for some reason,

he's going below him. Yeah. I want to credit Sam Sherman for this stat, but for the people who take umbrage with the nerdy R-YO-E stats, um, of the top things, 15 running backs going in Tom closed your rears, best ball this year. 14 of the 15 have a career rush yards over expected, 60th percentile or higher.

So there's certain guys on that list, like a Josh Jacobs or Joe Mixon, who not so impressive recently, but at least have established a pedigree of talent that thus teams keep giving them touches. That includes Kyra Williams, you haters. Sorry. It does. It does include Karen Williams. Like, hey, even in my rant, I said Cardin Williams is good at rushing the ball.

I'll admit that. Todd was at the 19th percentile. That's so like, he's just just straight up bad at rushing, right? If you want, if you want good at receiving and I don't know if he's good at rushing, I would just present James Cook in the same round who at least is good at some aspects of rushing, verifiably so, is efficient. I think he's a much better bet here. Yeah, fair.

for me I'm not going to go Debo like Debo would be my next one right we're talking about Michael Pitman Jr. being like a senior citizen last round like Debo's 28 right he's had one run upper tier season for an entire year so Debo would be

my next one here in the late 6th but I'm actually going to go Xavier Worthy I think that if just because look there's running backs on the board it's I'm not going to use George Pickett's as a punching bag I get the JSN thing. Brian Thomas Jr. Okay.

I'm going to go a little different route here just for the sake of getting a different take and perspective. If there was a player in this round that could be James and Williams next, it's Xavier Worthy for me. If you're taking Worthy at 606, you must be willing to accept that there is a chance you're getting MVS, Nicole Hardman, in this offense. Maybe an upgraded version of that player, but Rice is coming back. Rice was unbelievably good in this offense last year. He's very good.

Kelsey is going to be back. They do have Hollywood, who we know is only going to play seven games. That's just what Hollywood Brown does. But if Hollywood Brown plays the first or eight games of the year, and it limits worth his production, and Kelsey stays healthy, And then Rice comes back for the push at the end of the year.

And Worthy doesn't break out as a rookie. You're talking about a player, in my opinion, that has a very high probability of just dropping value because of what his role might be. He, very speedy guy, don't know what his route tree is going to look like in the NFL. Great freshman year in college. Didn't necessarily overly develop after that. questionable profile in that regards

because remember this receiver this receiver this receiver this receiver class was very much um I'll say look down on but we're very skeptical of it during this entire pre-draft process he just happened to go to the chiefs

which dope but the chiefs haven't exactly been a home run factory making like elite wide receiver team outside of Tyree Kill and then again the back half of GTA Rice's rookie season. It was really when he became a full-time player,

he really took off. So could worthy be a better NFL wide receiver than fantasy producing wide receiver? Absolutely. Do I want to rest that at my sixth pick? I'm not so sure that I do. So I'm not saying that he's bad. I'm not saying that he's going to be totally terrible,

but you are putting a lot of faith that this guy is going to say, stand head and shoulders above everyone else and produce what's needed to maintain this value or even reach that next level in value moving forward. There's just as equal a possibility that he is bad and dropping rounds quickly as there is of him staying at where he is at now. So for me, it is Xavier Worthy. Yeah, I mean, fair enough.

I mean, I think he's kind of a volatile process. I think there's definitely more risk with him than a lot of players in this round in terms of what we know about his talent. I do think it's, I think he'll be, I mean, I think like any round one rookie, he's going to have some level of insulation. Like, he's going to have to go out there and just be absolutely awful. I mean, like, Jackson Smith and Jigba's rookie season was horrifically bad. And he's going in this same round. Like, and he doesn't play with Patrick Mahomes. So, like, I think, I think you'd have to see, like, some serious, like, Quentin Johnston type stuff, really, like, Sky Moore type stuff for this, for that to go that way.

It's possible, definitely possible. But I do think more likely than not, he's probably going to hold this value, even if he's, you know, just kind of home. For me, like, that's the thing with me. That's why I mentioned JMO. Jameson Williams held insulation. Oh, well, he was injured. He didn't get to play as much year two is going to be. Like that archetype of player really fast, super fun in a good offense, right?

To me, that's fake insulation. He's going to have insulation, but his insulation isn't going to be because of his production. And to me, that's fake insulation. That's something I'm wary of. That's something I'm afraid of. That's why I mentioned, like, yeah, and I mentioned Brian Thomas Jr. is in the exact same spot. He could just be another Gabe Davis for that team, which is why I mention it.

But for me, it is the, to me, fake insulation in terms of insulation isn't because of his production. Right. But Jameson Williams is kind of a good example because he was going in the sixth round of startups last year. Oh, I agree. I honestly can't believe this. Like I think my body was possessed by some other, like fake ball knower or something. But I took James and the sixth round of a startup that the full tilt startup. I took, I had three six round picks actually.

I took Jerry, Judy, Daniel Jones, and Jameson Williams all in the sixth round last year. And I made the quarterfinals. And I drafted Kyle Pitts in the second round. I have no idea, like, how that happened. But either way. He must have gotten tired of Pooke out of making quarterfinals at the Fath Squadron. James caught one pass in his rookie season, and he was a sixth round start to pick the next year. I think Xavier Worthy is probably a little bit safer than you're giving him credit for.

But I won't push back on him. He's not much of it. I just agree with that you said. I think that was because Jameson was injured. You're like if worthy. If Severeworthy catches one pass this year, he will drop more than James and Williams did. I'm also saying just because they're insulated doesn't necessarily mean that I want them or want to take that shot at them. That's why I call it.

I don't think. I don't think worthy that insulated. Like we saw what happened with QJ dropped like an absolute rock. Like I don't know. If you're if you're a wide receiver that is viewed as sort of boom bust, and you get a great landing spot and you don't do anything. Like, I think the Jameson thing was a lot to do with people just say, hey, he had an ACL tear.

Yeah. I kind of see worthy more like the JSN though from last year where like he's going to have a lot of target competition on the roster. That's a built-in excuse. You also are going to have, unlike J.S. Actually, you have the Patrick Mahomes. Like, he's in this good offense. I don't know.

I feel like his, he would have to be really, really bad. Like, if he's QJ level bad, yes, he's totally going to, like, but I just think he's a better prospect than that. And I feel like some people, there are some people that view him as that same type of prospect, but I feel like there are a lot of people that think that he's, he has the early production and he, you know, he's actually a really good prospect. And I don't know. I could see it going out of way, I guess. I think he's similarly, I think he fits in a similar range of prospect of QJ and that I think there's a very wide range of belief. leafs on him. Like people, I think people forget how QJ was talked about this time last year. There were a lot of QJ bulls.

You guys around. You are, which is amazing. Like, JSN, JSN is viewed, I think, far more in line with, well, maybe not as highly as Harrison and neighbors, but certainly in line with how we view like a dunes egg. And I think probably even higher this time last year. Like, I think JSTN had a lot of, I mean, coming off the rookie. seasons that Wilson and Olavé just had. And then JFN having outproduced them that prior year at Ohio State, there was a lot of

very, very bullish JSN love and still is, I think reflected in this ADP that I think is kind of bad. But I don't know. It's not like, yeah, I thought about making JSCN my pick. I just don't think his ADP is quite bad enough, but now we're off of him, off of Worthy into him. I think Worthy is a notch below that. I think he's more of a high variance prospect than like a

probably true. That's why, again, you dipped out for a second there because we did hit your computer's timer limit. I appreciate you coming back. We finally hit it at like 150, which shout out. We said 130, but 150 we got there. That's why I put him and Brian Thomas Jr. kind of in the same spot. But like I said, if there's just one guy I could see completely dropping off of a cliff here,

You're basically just have to be willing to say that you have burned a draft pick at 6-6. If you're happy with that and you can live with that, all the power to you. If you're a good enough trader, like Paul said, that you're comfortable enough. If he's insulated at the same spot and you can move off him, if you see the iceberg coming straight for you. Yeah, then good for you. You can get out early. If you're good enough trader, if you're not, don't bother. I'm team lad for what it's worth.

I'm not actually taking worthy here at 606. I agree. I was just offering a little counter, but I agree. He's not my favorite pick in this round for sure. Yeah, and that's what we want. We just wanted to, we want, one thing that I'll always continue to hammer home on this program is that we have different opinions across the board more often than not. It is very rare on this show that you are going to get a think tank of the same takes from four people.

To me, that is what makes this program entertaining. It is what has set us apart for years as we continue to grow with you guys here. at fantasy points.com. Paul, always a pleasure. Absolutely. If you're not subscribed to the Pure Potential YouTube channel,

that link is going to be in the description. You head down there, you click that sub. You start watching those videos. We look forward, Paul, to you dropping some video content

as early as next week, possibly here at fantasy points. Sure, man. Thanks for having me on. It was a ton of fun. Bring me back anytime. I will clear my schedule. This is the best.

I think it's the best Dynasty podcast in the game. I'm definitely not biased because I'm currently on it at this moment. Mark. Does the best ball version starts right after this one's over, right? That's what I was laughing at. Say best ball again. I mean, in fairness, I'm about to go drafts and BBM and sprint teams, like literally in two minutes. So if people want to see me in the lobby, I'm going to start, I'll put it this way.

For anyone who happens to be in the chat and wants to, I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to be entering a best ball mania at 845 exactly, if you would like to jump in the lobby. Sorry, 845 Pacific time. 10.45 Central, 1145 Eastern. Some of like pop. Guys are a bunch of sickos. I'm going to be editing this till midnight. It's always worth it.

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