Fantasy Football Daily - Thursday Night Action + Trey Is Finally Broken | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. Welcome into the Best Bet Show here at Fantasy Points, Fantasy Points, YouTube, Fantasy Points Now, wherever you get your Fantasy Points content. I'm Joe. He's T-Bro. Good friend Trey, cooking up another heater in the lab. He is O-4 on this year. The world's worst gambler. We'll be back. He's going to try to get off the Schneide this week. I think you might want to fade him, though. But Tom, I am back to 500 for the year after last week. And I don't consider myself like the professional gambler or anything like that like i told you what's our little tagline on this show we're not wise we're just guys i am the definition of a guy i am 12 and 12 on my best

bets uh i i keep of that uh oscillating between one and two weeks and two and one weeks and two and three weeks and three and two weeks i had a two and one week last week um i hit that that that that bryce young panthers under i'm glad i got the number where i got it because it was i got it at that 43 and it hit at 42. So I got that under. Got the chargers in an easy, pretty easy cover. There was a little sweat just because that game was sloppy, but it was a pretty easy cover over the Saints. And unfortunately, you and I both lost Aaron Jones on Thursday night with one of our super best bets. But hey, T-Bro, how were the props this past week? I think you were kind of cooking ATS though. I was cooking overall. Got off to a really slow start. The 0-2 Thursday night.

It's always one. You've got to dig yourself out of there. But went six and three on Sunday and then two and oh on Monday night football. So I had a nice week overall with the player props. The super best bet. We got to do better on these super best bet, Joe.

I think we're 0 for two now because the Tony Pollard won a couple of weeks ago. Oh, God. So hopefully. Don't get started about that. So, yeah. And at 3 and 0 on the ATS, best bets in 11 and 5 overall. So hopefully you've been following those. They come out every Thursday.

The best bets are back to 14 and 10. So dug myself out of a hole there. And then the picking every game against the spread is going well. So check out our staff picks. If you want to check those out, if you're in a pool, an ATS pool of some sort. But overall, the player props are going well. ATS is going well. I know John Hansen's crushing it still. Alex Pendergrass had a big night on Monday night football as well with his SGPs. So yeah, get over to the site. This is just a taste of what we're doing over at fantasy points. Go get over in the Discord as well and get those bets when they first drop.

YouTube 25 gets you 25% off. NFL premium will get you. Tom's plays, Graham Barfield's plays, Justin Varns, IDP plays. You can get good friend Trace plays. plays here for free because we're not illegally allowed to pay while those plays. Yeah, I don't think you want to pay for these. Just fade these whenever you hear them at the end of the podcast. Tom, we have an interesting Thursday night game.

Once again, we are subjected to the New York Jets. But here's what's interesting about this. This line stinks out loud. The Jets are laying, well, honestly, depending on where you look, two, two and a half. There's some one and a halfs out there. wherever you side with this game, if you have a play on the side, you can get a good number for each team. They host the Houston Texans. Jets minus two, two and a half, one and a half,

depending on where you look. I do not have a play on this side because this line stinks out loud. And because this line stinks out loud, if I had a play, I would be grudgingly lean to the Jets, but I just can't get myself to the window. Yeah, I have this, you know, I have this close to a pickum game. sure we're getting a little extra because of the short week. The Jets are at home. A little less. Desperately need a win. Yeah, and they desperately need a win.

They're going to throw the kitchen sink at them. And of course, the Texans, I didn't know how much to downgrade them now. I downgraded them a half a point, but maybe it should be closer to a point, at least for this week, because you lose Stefan Diggs for the rest of the season. Nico Collins is already out. Tank Dell has not played well all season. this could be a tough game here for the Houston Texans passing game. This offense has been relying a lot on Joe Mixing here recently.

So, yeah, I have this close to a pick-um if this was a normal Sunday, but I'm going to guess that the extra point, point-a-half is desperation on the jet side and that little bit of home travel, no travel being at home on Thursday night and with Houston having to travel up there on the short week. So I know that's been the kind of a little bit of the talk of the week here, but I think that's the reason why the Jets are slight favorites here. So, yeah, I agree. Stefan Diggs out. Obviously, Nico Collins is not going to be back until next week.

So it's looking like the receivers are Tank Dell, John Mechie, Xavier Hutchinson. I think they brought Kevin Walter and Joel Driesen back to catch passes in this one. Tom, I do have a wager, though. It is projected to be a close game. Joe Mixon's been Houston's really best offensive player in games that Nico Collins hasn't been active. And you might argue in games that Nico Collins has been active when Joe Mixen played. He's been their best player. I project that this game will be close.

That's what the spread suggests. The rushing yardage was kind of juiced up. It was up to 89 and a half, I think the last I checked. But I did get over 20 and a half carries on Joe Mixon minus 130. It's a big number, but he's gone above this. He went over 25 in each of his last two games. I believe in week number one, he had over 30 carries. So he had 30 carries, 25, 25.

He only had 13 against New England in his return from injury, but he still had 100 yards rushing in that game. I think Joe Mixed in over 20 carries. Thursday night football. We don't have our wide receivers. We're going to try to slow things down. The jets have been vulnerable to the run. let's go with Joe Mixon over 20 and a half carries against the New York Jets.

Yeah, and Damien Pierce has also already been rolled out here. Injury reports came out here Wednesday afternoon, and he is not going to play. So they're down to Daria Gumbawale behind him. So he's more of the passing back. So I would think in early down situations that Mixon's going to get most of that work. So I do like that one. I do think that this is a game that I would be surprised that the Jets race out to a big lead.

kind of bury the Texans a little bit and they have to abandon the run. So I like that bet. I actually have, I'm fading the running game on the other side. I'm taking a rare under here. We're fantasy points where we love our overs and we don't take a whole lot of unders. But I'm taking Breece Hall under 69 and a half rushing yards. That was over at ESPN bet. We haven't projected for about 54 rushing yards right now. And he's been at 62. or fewer yards in six of his eight games. Last week, I write up our waiver wire. Braylon Allen was heavily involved again last week.

The new coaching staff had kind of buried him in the first two games, but Braylon Allen was back in the mix, and he scored a short touchdown. And I would think that on a short week here, we could probably see him mixing in again. So, and the matchup kind of lines up as well. Houston in our fantasy points data. They're giving up the second fewest adjusted yards per carry per attempt.

And overall, they're giving up the six fewest rushing yards per game to running back. So looking at Breece Hall under 69.5. I know Brett Whitefield, at least in our company Discord, has been saying that breeze doesn't look quite the same this year. So maybe we see a little more of a 50-50 split like we kind of did last week. So I'm looking at Hall to go under his rushing yards. Yeah, Tom, the Jets under. seem to be hitting quite a bit.

I always just hate betting them. I know they're winning bets. Oh, I know. But, you know, I completely agree, though. Take some Jets unders. I took an under, cashed an under last week. Hey, let's see if we can do it going forward. We're going to pay the bills here for a little bit. And we're going to talk about the rest of the week 9 Sunday slate and any best bets that Tom and I have on that sleep. At Capital One, we're more than just a credit card company.

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Yes, Terms and conditions apply. All right, welcome back, everybody, to the Best Bet Show here at FantasyPoint.com. Tom, we have two teams on. on by this week. First and foremost, how do we have six teams on by in weeks 12 and 14? What a joke. No teams on by in week eight,

two in week nine. Sticking in your ditty bag. The 14 one is the one that hurts the most because that's the fantasy playoff start then. That's after Thanksgiving as well. Like, holy crap. Let's like let's spread out at least maybe if it's going to be a week 14,

Like give us two and give us two crappy teams, not six of them. But yeah, I totally agree. But we're back to some buys this week. Yeah. So Tom, I have one against the spread bet. And I usually like to throw one in there and against the spread or a total bet, not just so this doesn't become entirely a prop show. I know props are kind of where I make most of my wagers.

And I was looking and I couldn't really find one I loved. And look, I'll flat I'll tell you, I did not get the best of this number. This opened at a lower number on Monday. But a piece of news came down a little bit later in the week, came down on Tuesday night, but the Jacksonville Jaguars traded Cam Robinson, their left tackle to the Minnesota Vikings. Now, do I think this is any, like, big, like, oh, my God, line moving kind of move? I don't, you know, according to PFF, like Robinson grades out as a decent to, to, to good tackle.

And I think Minnesota obviously is making this move because they view themselves as contenders following the loss of Christian Darisov. But it is just another feather out of the cap of the Jaguars who are already going to be down Christian Kirk. Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday, each of which in a non-contact jersey. Brian Thomas has a chest injury.

Gabe Davis has a shoulder. So even if those guys are trending towards playing, are they limited at all? The Jaguars are terrible. They can't stop the pass at all. Jalen Hurts just had his best game of the season. Heck, best game in over a year against Cincinnati. When he had time to throw, he picked the Bengals apart. The Eagles are laying seven and a half.

They have blown out two consecutive opponents. They blew out the Giants. They blew out the Bengals. Tom, I think they beat the Jaguars by two scores as well. Give me the Eagles laying the seven and a half against Jacksonville. Yeah, I love this one. This is one I was looking at hard on Monday. I give out my initial bets on Monday morning around 9 to 10 o'clock.

Just because I knew the injury situations at wide receiver for the Jaguars. I mean, it's going to be difficult for them to move the ball, especially if Brian Thomas Jr. does not play. It's going to be a lot of Evan Ingram and, you know, Parker, Washington could be their second receiver here. So it does look like they could get Travis Eton back at least. least. Does that help them? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it might make it even worse if they play him more than Tank Bigsby. Bigsby's been at least the better runner here so far this season. So I'm with you, John. I also think the Eagles are flying a little bit under the radar here. I almost gave them out

last week. I ended up backing off. I thought Cincinnati was a little bit overrated and Philadelphia's been a little bit underrated since, you know, the whole Siriani crap at the beginning of the season. thing. He's cocky. He's abrasive. And there were, they were obviously valid concerns. I said a couple of weeks ago, I thought he was going to get fired if they lost to the Browns. Well, they didn't lose to the Browns. And now they have three straight wins and just played their most complete game of the season. So, yeah, I think the Eagles are hitting their stride right now. And I like them laying the seven and a half. Yeah, defensively, they look good. And the offense, you're right. It's starting to hit hit it stride here. And I like this one a lot. Seven and a half, though. Yeah, I wish you.

I wish you had gotten the best of the number, but this kind of happened last week, too, didn't you? Or do you have the charges at seven or seven and a half? I got the chargers at seven. Okay. Nonetheless, you know, the charges would have covered the seven and a half. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, it could be a similar situation here. So I'm with you on this Eagle side.

This is the way I'm leaning. I almost gave it out on Monday. Probably going to stay away from it because of the hook. But it's definitely a major lean for me towards the Eagles on this one. Tom, did you hit anything ATS here? or total wise. Yeah, I think this would be a good little discussion. I gave out, I gave out a couple lines that have moved here.

In my favor, I gave out the Rams plus one and a half. You know, this is, I rode the Rams hard. I had no agree on this game. Oh, no, I love the Rams. I think the Seahawks are overrated. Yep, that's, that's my feeling. I feel like the Rams are going to start surging again, just like the second half of last year.

I think this defense is going to just continue to improve here. and we saw what the offense looked like against the Vikings on Thursday night football here. So they're now laying one and a half. So we've seen three points of line movement. Of course, over the zero, you know, over the pickum part, not as meaningful, but still a significant line movement towards the Rams. I also gave out the Browns at two and a half, plus two and a half. I think this should be closer to pick them.

I think people are kind of underestimating just how big of an anchor, Deshawn Watson was on this entire franchise and both units and even the home crowd here. So I think this team has some new life here with James Winston. Of course, we're betting on James Winston. So I got to hope that he doesn't throw any backbreaking interceptions like he nearly did a couple of times last week. But the one that I so I give out these Monday bets and typically they move in my favor. But I gave out the Vikings minus six. and a half here. And the Colts made a quarterback switch. And the line has moved towards the

Colts and the backup quarterback here. The Vikings are now minus five, minus five and a half, depending on where you look. So Joe Flacco is essentially a point to a point and a half better than Anthony Richardson, at least according to the sports betting markets. Yeah. So, I mean, look, the Colts are telling you that they think Anthony Richard is better. And let's talk about the Anthony Richardson thing. I don't want to make this a podcast about the policy of the Indianapolis Colts. Some guy sent me a ticket. I actually answer our customer service tickets at fantasy points. I do that quite a bit. And some guy complained that I talked about the Colts decision making on today's show. He was like, don't just get to the plays and

the rankings. And I'm like, dude, it was 10 minutes, man. It's pretty, it's pretty. It's pretty pretty big news. I mean, this is, this has been the talk of the NFL, you know, that was Jaden Daniels and that whole fiasco for the Bears, you know, Sunday and Monday, but this is, you know, he's the number four overall quarterback. And I mean, this is a huge decision that they're making to go to Joe Flacco here. And here is why also, I think this moved. Not only because the markets think that Joe Flacco is better, but it's pretty obvious that the Colts think Joe Flacco is better. And I don't necessarily mean that just Shane Steichen. They do not do this unless there is locker room unrest.

Oh, yeah. Like there is, and that's part, that's the thing you have to, you have to deal with, right? Because you're signing these players. You sign Jonathan Taylor, why? Because, well, we think we can contend. And you go get these players. We, well, we think we can contend. And Anthony Richardson's out there not giving them a chance.

And I know, Shane Sekegson said, the tap out had nothing to do with it. Bullshit. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. That was the last draw. I mean, everything was just kind of piling up and then you put that tap out in there. And that was just the final one. So, you know, you're a receiver.

You're out there running routes and you feel like, you know, you're not going to get the ball. Yeah. And you're, well, no, I'm saying like, I think the players are also frustrated by his, you know, inability to complete passes and extend drives. I just think if you're a defensive player, like you're kind of. constantly going back out there after three and outs or quick drives and receivers. You're going out there running routes and you feel like it's almost hopeless. I know the film bros were out there this week, you know, talking about, you know, it wasn't nearly as bad a film as it was.

And I watched the cutups. It's true. But it's still at the end of the day, 10 for 32. I mean, that's just not acceptable. You don't think Shane Steichen also saw that the film wasn't as bad as the statistics. You know, he of course he saw it. He's an NFL coach, but that's why it was more than that. And I just feel like the tap out was just kind of the on-field manifestation of everything that's been kind of bubbling underneath.

That's what it feels like to me. But I wouldn't be surprised, unfortunately, for your bet, Tom, and I know you probably agree with this. I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts came out with a little bit added fire here with old Joe. Yeah, and I'm kind of, you know, obviously I did think about this on Monday. I'm like, what if they would make the switch? But I thought, you know, he's healthy. I'm like, they're not doing this in the middle of his second season. They're not pulling the guy that they drafted fourth overall.

But this tells you what exactly they're thinking behind the scenes with him right now. I will say there's no props out yet, but we will be hitting some Josh Downs over receiving yard props whenever we get the chance. We're going back to the well. We went to the Cooper Cup well last week. It didn't work. but we're still looking at these slot receivers against the Vikings. So I'll already tell you right now.

I don't know where the number is going to open up. It'll probably be, I would think, in the low to mid-50s, somewhere in that range. And we will be betting Josh Downs over once those props come up. I have an over here as well, Tom. And I'm going to go to the AFC East in a divisional matchup there. And I am going to hit Devon A-chan. I have Devon A-chan over 30. 33 and a half receiving yards.

Now, these numbers, when I looked at them, were like impossibly low to me. I wanted to see if I could get a total yardage bet at my book. I couldn't get one right now. But I have 33 and a half receiving yards for Devon A. Chan. I think I think I saw the rushing yards at 49 and a half. That went up to, that's up over 50 and a half right now. But I mean, look, Tom, when Tuatunga Viloa has been healthy, and this is a good research from our guy, Jake Tribby,

he did this in the DFS early look this week up at fantasy points, which is a free article, by the way. He averages 26.4 fantasy points per game in games with Tua. That's first among running backs. But additionally, for this particular matchup, Buffalo allows the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs as receivers. So I'm like, all right, this 33 and a half,

How many times have we seen A-chan go over this in one catch? Or, you know, he gets a 25-yard catch and then a nine-yard catch, and this prop's done. So I thought this was one of the easier ones for me to hit on the board. I know they're mixing in Mo Sturt and Jalen Wright, but their usage of Devon A-chan. It makes it obvious that they believe Devon A-chan is their best back. The matchup is good with Buffalo. Give me A-chan over the 33 and a half receiving yards. We're making this a super bet or we're probably totally jinxing it.

But yeah, we didn't even talk about this before. No, no, this is, it's been a chatter in our discord about this one, too. This was, honestly, I start writing up our game hub. My game hub that goes up on the site, and this is one of the first games I was writing up, and I'm like, oh, God, I'm definitely betting on Devon, A-chan over receiving yards prop. He's done it in all, he's hit 50 yards in all three games with two so far this year. Of course, the Buffalo game, he had 69 year receiving yards in that game. And yeah, I echo everything you said.

Most receiving yards per game allowed by Buffalo to running backs, 54.3 per game. Teams just aren't, you know, they kind of concede these receptions. They're willing to give up the receptions to the running backs. They keep everything in front of them. So we're making this a super bat. We're both on Devon A. Chan. In the Discord, we were discussing, you know,

they were discussing the ladder on this one as well. I think it was like plus 220, at least at Bet 365, where I was looking to get to 50 yards. And then 75 yards, I think was close to 750 or plus 700. So this is one. I would not be afraid to take the ladder, get the ladder out and do some of the milestones for his receiving guards in this game. Did you hit anything else here on Sunday or Monday? Are we going to Good Friend Trey here? I got a couple of them here.

I don't want to give out everything, but, you know, we're going to YouTube 25. Yeah, there we're YouTube 25. See them all. I'll give out two more here, though. A.J. Brown, we're just, I've hit this prop three weeks in a row. I don't, I don't get it. The sports books are doing it again here. The line has opened up on his bet at 72 and a half again. This guy, A.J. Brown should be lined at like in the high 70s or low 80s every week at this point.

And once again, once again, you know, And it's a great, as John Hansen would say, a schematic matchup here. It's just, it's beautiful. We haven't projected for 89 yards. Jacksonville is deploying the second highest rate of man coverage right now. And A.J. Brown absolutely kills man coverage. 5.35 yards per route run. He's seen a target 35% of the time against man coverage on the routes that he runs.

And then Jacksonville's given up the fifth most yards per route run to receivers. And the third most receiving yards per game to receivers aligned out wide. So they've really struggled. We're just going back to this AJ Brown, but I can't believe it's still in the low 70s. Maybe by the time you're listening to this, it might be in the mid-70s or even into the higher 70s. It's still a smash up until like the low 80s. We're hitting that bet again.

And how about one more here? Alvin Kamara. We're going to Alvin Kamar this week. He's got that Carolina Panthers matchup that we're always, you know, as soon as we see Carolina Panthers on the schedule, we're looking at running backs. 62 and a half rushing yards. I think it may have bumped up to 63.5. But I like this up into the mid-60s, even into the high 60s.

Kendrae Miller once again has a hamstring injury. He's probably going to. to be out again. So not going to feel a whole lot of pressure behind them. And Caesar Ruiz was back in the lineup last week. And boom, Alvin Kamara averages 6.7 yards per carry, gets 67 yards. So the offense, the running game started to come back a little bit with Ruiz back. And then we look at the Carolina stuff.

They're giving up the second most rushing yards per game to running backs at 128 a half. eighth most adjusted yards per carry per attempt. Yards before contact per attempt, 2.31 yards there. So it's all lining up here. The Saints are major favorites, seven and a half point road favorites. So we're smashing Alvin Kamara over his rushing yards prop here. 62.5 is what I'm seeing.

If you're listening to this later in the week, I would bet it up to like 66.5, 67.5. I still think that's a number. I would bet it at. So those are two overs I'm smashing after giving out the breeze hall under on Thursday night football. The world's worst gambler, good friend Trey. He's got his tail between his legs, Tom. Let's put it that way.

Even he calls himself the world's worst gambler and he is still reeling right now. He is going to try to get off the Schneid when we come back. But when we first talk to him, I want to talk about his Anthony Richardson buffet. We're going to give him a little bit of a, of a, of a, of a, break here as we talk to our sponsors so he can start to prepare a eulogy. So we'll be back with Good Friend Trey after this. Folks, the world's worst gambler, Good Friend Trey. I am beginning to feel awful because he can't even hit a leg of a parlay, let alone a parley. So like, if you are anti-good friend Treying, like you're taking the opposite, you are up a

bagillion units, which quite frankly, Tom, is just as valuable as a, as a gambler who's hitting 100% of their bets, the tail. But Trey, I know last week was another awful one for you with the, the, the, the Cooper Cup ladder, because Pook and Akua goes absolutely nuts. Yeah, that was, that was kind of a brutal beat before the, the bet was even, you know, before the game even started. Because we didn't expect Pooka to play. Yeah, we got the Pooka news on Thursday afternoon that he was going to play. it seemed like he was trying in the right direction. Then he decides to play.

So it was like bad beat city before the game even kicked off. If you had a puka ladder, that would have worked out really well. But Trey, let's talk about this little Anthony Richardson buffet that you made before the season. Because it doesn't look so hot right. Yeah, I'm realizing that I have a great power bestowed upon me these days. If I bet something, you're going to see the opposite. happen in catastrophic fashion. I mean, it's the, I just have the magic touch.

I can ruin anything that I touch. You know, it's just, it's, it's unbelievable. I'd like to recap some of the plays on this show that I've made. Obviously, the Anthony Richardson buffet. I had him for MVP, offensive player of the year, Stuyken coach of the year, Colts to win the division. He gets benched, okay? It's dead.

It hurts. Whatever. Devante Adams, two touchdowns, week one. He had 56 yards and nothing stinker, total stinker. I had a Bill's four-leg parlay against the dolphins. Tyreek flopped, Alan flopped. James Cook, to have two catches. He caught a touchdown pass.

First drive of the game. Only had one catch, brutal. 70 Club, O2 barbecue. Okay, we know this. The night off, the first touchdown score, that was a flop. The second 70 club, I went one out of four legs, got that done. I got one at least. The home dog parlay, I went 0 for three, and home dogs that week went 0 for nine.

The Steiner Math Parlay, that was 0 for four, and Chris Godwin broke his ankle. And the cup ladder, of course, was 0 for four. So that's a quick rundown of what I've been through this season. But I do have something up my sleeve. I think I can get right this week. All right. I want to hear it. I want to hear it.

How do you get right? I mean, like, you're not. going to do like what what what what possibly could you do to get right i mean look i can't wait to hear this there is only one option when you're presented with a situation like this you have to see the ball go through the hoop once okay you just have to so we're going to pivot this week into a cannot fail two-leg parlay not a big payout okay we're just we're putting one up we're going to see it go through the hoop so i'm going to take the ravens money line against the broncos they're nine and a half point favorites right now okay so we're taking them on the money line

the undefeated kansas city chiefs okay we're taking them on the money line against the buccaneers they're uh eight and a half point favorite okay this is only going to pay out minus 217 okay this is not my typical slop but i need to see the ball go through the who one time just so I can get my mind right, get back on track, and, you know, kind of advance to where I can give out the big plays and beyond my game. What is the,

what is the opposite of this? What is, what is the, the buccaneers on the money line? And the Broncos on the money line pay out. So, so when I was looking at it, if you were to fade this play,

which I don't advise it, it ain't going to happen. Okay, I'm taking, I've taken the tried and true, all right, taking the juggernauts, getting a big win. But the other side of this is going to be plus 2,082 the last time I looked at it. So if for some reason, we're going to find out this week, if the magic that I have, I don't even know if you want to call it magic, but whatever this power is that I have to ruin teams and ruin players, I'm putting it to the ultimate test this week. And yeah, if somehow the Ravens and the Chiefs both lose straight up,

I don't know where we go from here. I'm not sure what I'd have to bet next week. Are you concerned at all? Ravens, they've lost to the Raiders already. They lost to the Browns. Lamar Jackson's tired. He's resting in practice. You know, he couldn't even practice Wednesday.

That doesn't sound good. I mean, I mean, I'm talking to the Ravens side. I'm always nervous about anybody I put money on, but, uh, you know, it's just, they're eight and a half point favorites. They look pretty feisty without those guys, though, last week. I mean, they gave your Falcons everything they could handle. I don't think they're going to back down from this chief's team. I mean, I don't think this is a virtual lock like you think it is. Yeah, and the Broncos and the Broncos obviously against the Ravens, it's Bo Nicks, you know, the team is solid, but I, you know, the Ravens got a lot to play for right now. And there's no, the letdown already happened.

That was last week. So we're not, we're not in let down territory. If they happen to lose this week, you're in be worried territory. But we're not in, we're past letdown territory. So I'm feeling good about it. I'm just going to take two juggernauts in games that they should win comfortably. I'm going to take the easy money line parlay. I'm going to cash.

I'm going to take the couple quarters in my pocket. And I'm going to feel good about myself and be mentally refreshed for whatever week 10 brings. In sports betting, I know two things. Now, maybe this just seems anecdotal. I don't have the numbers. But hey, you know, we're not wise. We're just guys over here, right? There are two unassailable facts about betting.

One, I am terrified to bet against Baker Mayfield. Two, I am terrified to bet on Baker Mayfield. Although I have to imagine Baker's been a money winner the last couple of years. But, I mean, the guy's a lunatic out there. Hey, but you're not laying the points. You just need the one point victory. That's all you need. Money line.

And I will say, too, I don't want to get off into a tangent. But I don't believe in Baker Mayfield. I don't. I know that's a hot take right now. And he's, you know, making me eat it right now. But I don't think he's any good. I really don't. I don't.

It's not my guy personally. I know he's been having some success the last couple years, but it's not a guy. Did he do a guy I'm gonna go? It sounds like this is some old hatred coming out. No,

no old hatred. I don't, I don't dislike the guy. I'm sure he's a great fellow, but just, it's something, I know, something's not clicking there for me.

I don't know. It's just maybe it's a personal, you know, just it's not, not for me. I love a, I love Baker. He's a lunatic.

I love that kind of, that style of quarterback. Isn't it funny, by the way, that the Buccaneers have the Brown's old lunatic quarterback and now the, the Browns have the Buccaneers old lunatic quarterback and the fan bases.

I mean, I know they both love them too. I know I know. I know the Browns fans. They don't go to, don't go to Browns Reddit and bring up Baker Mayfield by the way. They have heard enough of it because they know, you know, they,

they, they, they screwed the pooch on that one. But, uh, well, let bygones be got bygones. And, uh, let, let losing bets be losing bets. That's what good friend Trey is. been doing. I mean, the man, the man, he comes into this podcast laying like plus 4,000

parlays, and he's got a minus two 17 parlay. I do not expect this curveball. I mean, I guess, I guess when you're down bad, you know, sometimes you just got to, as he said, you got to see the ball go through the hoop. So, uh, I mean, who's screwing this up, Joe, if you had to guess, which who, who, who screws it up? Baker or, uh, you know, Bo Necks? Who's Baker. Okay, you're on with Baker. Baker. I mean, Kansas City has been asking to be beat for weeks. they have. And Baltimore's already had a couple of those embarrassing losses. Kansas City can afford a loss, you know, like it's. Yeah, I don't know if Bo Nix is the quarter, you know, the Ravens secondary is vulnerable here. I don't know if Bo Nix is necessarily the guy that can take advantage of that. So, yeah, I got Bo Nixed in our, in our longest running league. I had 151 points. And my opponent had 157 because he started freaking book Nix. I'm sick of it. What a pull. That is a kick in the dick. Let me. tell you when you get bow next i do have to say one more thing here uh i i did have something good

happened to me last week so i want people know it's not all bad uh just a little brag sesh here but actually it is i want to bitch a little bit too uh i had a i had a lineup in the milly maker that was top one percent uh what does that get you 13 cents yeah not much however i really got screwed by Rahim Mostert. Oh, the two touchdowns? If any of those dolphins touchdowns are A. Chan or Tyreek Hill, I might have quit the podcast. I might be off on the island somewhere because I had just a great look at it. K. Dotton, David and Joku, the lineup was choice to a stack with A. Chan and Tyreek.

So, you know, I just had a beautiful look at it. It was looking right. and then Rahim Mostert crushed my soul. I had Cedric Tillman, I think, in that lineup as well. I had Tillman, Otten. I'm a, I am a single entry or low entry, two PPP. Two bullets.

Two bullets. That was one of them. And, yeah, I had, I, I've been like cash in every single week here. I'm red hot in DFS. Maybe I should. It's not that I'm like offering my own advice. I'm just reading what we have up at the website. YouTube 25 for NFL premium gets you,

betting and DFS content at FantasyPoint.com. We give the plays out for free on this podcast because we're not wise. We're just guys. I hope everybody had fun. I hope everybody's rooting for good friend Trey to get off the Schneid. The poor man is depressed. Let the boy have a win here one of these days. I'm Joe. That's Tom. That's Trey.

Have a good one.