Fantasy Football Daily - Thursday Night Action + Trey's Ant Rant, Slop Parlay, and BONUS College Football Parlay | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week 14 of the best bet show here at FantasyPoints.com. Listen in to hear how I got screwed yet again by the Atlanta Falcons and why good friend Trey is a big fan of a certain quarterback in Indianapolis. Some fantasy teams have given up, some betters have given up, and Tom Brolly, it seems by our research right now as we record this on Wednesday evening the 4th of December, do you remember? I don't know, the 4th of December. The fourth of the closing up. It feels like the books have given up because I don't really,

it was very difficult for me to come up with bets that I like this week. Maybe that's good for me given, I was staying far away. Oh, actually, matter of fact, I didn't stay away from the Atlanta Falcons, but I'm going against them. So we'll hear about that a little bit later in the show. But T, bro, what's up, man? How'd you do?

I had a two and two week. I will rant and rave about the the falcons game but I want to hear how you did I had two and two week I hit my Dolan teaser of the Eagles and the Bills I should have just money line parlayed on my probably would have gotten better odds and I hit Rico Dowdle over the Russian yards that was a non-sweet honestly neither bet was a sweat for me I but I lost two other bets how did you do last week pretty good yeah the sports books I think they're still working off that trip to fan from last week a little slow getting props and everything out there. But we found a little bit of stuff for this week and we'll dig into it. But yeah, Thanksgiving was great. Three and O in the player props. Had money on the Dolphins. That was a disappointing game.

As soon as Malik Washington fumbled that punt inside the five-yard line. I knew that one was over. But also won a couple of bets on the Black Friday game as well. So finished up eight and four overall for player props last week, up to 61% overall. I think we're up 23 or 24 units on those bets. So hopefully people have been falling along with those. ATS right around 500.

Can't get any momentum going there. Got a couple of bets there. But yeah, it was a pretty strong week overall. And looking forward to these books, eventually putting some more player props out there. So, Tom, let's recap some of my bets. I seem to lose bets in the most hilarious ways possible. I had the Bears and the Lions over the 49.

Hmm. I, all I needed was overtime. Or the, or the, or the, or the, oh yeah, or touchdown. Yeah, yeah. Yep. All I needed was overtime. The Bears get into field goal range and then immediately commit the most obvious hands to the face penalty of all time. So I'm sitting here rant and raven.

You know, my wife's there listening to me and she's like, oh, now are the Lions now one of those teams like the Chiefs that's going to get a friendly whistle? You know, every big bear's play had a penalty calling it back. And then they'd show the replay and it'd be the most obvious penalty of all time. Cole Commet running directly into a defender. The guy bounced off of them like a rubber ball, 15 yards down the field for a pick play. And then on the play that got them down inside, I believe inside the 15 to Keenan Allen, the left guard got called for hands to the face. I mean, he ripped the guy's helmet off.

I mean, like, most obvious penalties of all time. Caleb takes a sack on the next play to an unblocked defender. Guy basically log rolled into the backfield. And then the Matt Iber flus fiasco. So my overbet, which was over 49, all I needed was the Lions, the Bears to tie that game at 23, get it to overtime. Maybe I get a touchdown. At least I get a push was not to be.

And then the Atlanta Falcons. Oh, I was on this one too. This is absolutely infuriating this game. absolute domination on the Atlanta Falcons side, Joe. So, um, no idea how they didn't cover this game. I think it might be Seth Walder, but it, forgive me those of you on, on Twitter, blue sky, wherever you post these, the charts of how badly did we get beat? I think that's actually Sam Hoppin.

I think he used to do four for four. And I think he's with one of the sports books now. I think he might be ESPN bet now. Yeah, Sam Hoppin does it. Well, it basically was essentially. the Falcons beat the piss out of the Chargers last week. And they were the worst team. As a matter, they had the worst loss in terms of by how much they were expected to win by EPA, right?

I have bet on the Falcons twice this year. In each game, they had the worst loss of the week in terms of how badly they beat, beat up on their opponents. A few weeks ago, it was Youngwey Koo missing three field goals. He missed one in this game as well. And then this week, it was. Kirk Cousins playing as awful a game as we've seen a quarterback play this year. I'm done with betting on the Atlanta Falcons for the time being Tom. Let's get into Thursday night football.

And it is a rip snorter. We got Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions in an absolute killer game. I mean, not only does this have NFNFC North implications. This has NFC implications. This has Super Bowl implications. We got the Lions laying 3.5, 51 and a half being the total. I think that's a fair number. But for a team that in the Lions that you might argue should have lost last week.

They now escape. They get Green Bay coming in on a short week. Of course, both of these teams have, well, they have full weeks. They're just Thursday to Thursday. Yeah, Thursday, Thursday, yep. In a fascinating game, Tom, I'm interested to hear what you think about this. Yeah, this one, if everything was kind of equal going into, you know, coming into this game, I think it would be probably closer to four and a half, but the Detroit Lions are really dealing with a lot of injuries of late.

I think they have the most guys on the injured reserve at this point. So this line has just kind of stayed at three and a half all week. And even starting to see some threes popping at Draft Kings, it's minus 118. So this is one of those. If you're looking to lay it with the lions, you could probably wait it out. possibly get a three on game day. So there's a lot of support here for the Packers who are surging a little bit. And the Lions seem to be leaking a little bit of oil because of these injuries,

especially on the defensive line. They've had some issues in the secondary as well. So this is why that's the line. Is this kind of hanging out at three, three and a half right now? So Tom, I've been looking at those Lions injuries. They have really, really bad injuries on defense. and they especially have deep injury. Packers also have some injuries.

I should, this is going, you know, we just got to see their injury report and Jair Alexander. He's out. He's out. He's out. Alexander and Romeo Dobbs are both out again this week. They're both out. Yeah. But I wanted, I wanted to lean into the Lions injuries just for the bet that I have on this

particular game. Two, three defensive linemen are out for the Lions. Levi on Wuzerike, hamstring. He's out. Josh Pascal, knee. He's out. DJ Reeder, the big powerful guy right there in the middle of the defensive line. He's out with an injury.

Alex Anzolone is already on IR with a broken leg. And then Malcolm Rodriguez, you know, Rodrigo from Hard Knocks from a couple of years ago. He tore his ACL. He's out for the season. He's on IR. So that is five key rotational players for the lines. Oh, by the way, also. Aiden Hutchinson, yeah.

You know, that guy. Kind of a poor player. Six key defensive linemen. and just in the front seven on that defense, Tom. And I know he didn't hit this number last week, but I have a feeling that the Green Bay Packers are going to want to run the ball, and they're going to feel like Josh Jacobs is going to have an opportunity to do so. Give me Josh Jacobs over 69 and a half rushing yards on Thursday night against Detroit.

I mean, it's going to be indoors, so it's not an outside Richard in the soil kind of game. but those injuries for the lions, I think, are pretty critical here. And I think the Packers are going to want to try to run the football, keep this game close. Yeah, this is, if you look at the season long numbers, it doesn't look like a great bet. Fourth, fewest rushing yards per game to running backs. But as you said, it's the most recent weeks here.

They're starting to leak a little bit of oil. They're giving up the 14th most adjusted yards before contact now at 1.94 yards. So, yeah, I think they could have a little bit of success here. And if you look at what Matt LaFleur has done recently, he's starting, he's never been a bell cow guy. The last couple of weeks, he really has. And it's because the injuries behind him, Marshall and Lloyd has been basically lost for the entire season. But they're really leaning into Josh Jacobs. So he should, you know, he should be able to get to maybe 20 carries in this game as long as they're able to keep it close.

That would be my one concern for this bet. This lion's offense, we saw last week with the Bears. they jump out to a big lead, really put teams into a passing situation. So that would be my only concern for it. But the spread has been coming back towards the Packers all week. So a lot of market support here for the Packers. So I like this one. I'm also going to the Packers side for my player prop.

I'm looking at that Romeo Dobbs entry. It's going to open up some more snaps potentially here for Christian Watson, who's been getting more of a full-time role here. in recent weeks, led them in route share last week with Romeo Dobbs out. And I'm looking at Detroit here. They play a lot of man coverage, most in the league at around 45% from our fantasy points data. And Watson is averaging 2.54 yards per route run and 30% target share against man coverage. So it's not the most, you know, they're a little weaker in the slot, which is where Jaden

replays. I'm looking towards Watson in this man coverage. I think that could dictate more targets for him out on the perimeter. Carlton Davis is playing. I would have really liked to see him out of the lineup. But I'm banking on Watson staying hot here over the last couple of weeks. He did have that bad drop of two weeks ago. But he's been getting these downfield opportunities.

So this might be a good opportunity. I know people are always looking for these ladders. This would probably be a good one here. I think he's going to get some downfield opportunities. chances in this one. So I like Christian Watson. Over 48.5 is the number that we have on Wednesday night right now. Well, I like it, T-Bro. I'm excited for this game on Thursday, obviously later on today, if you're listening to this show now. Just to give us a couple of seconds here to pay some bills and then we'll get back and talk about what is a very thin slate as we're

talking of Sunday props. All right, Tom, I had to scour to just find something. And, you, You know, this is a prop I was looking for a couple of hours ago, and then it popped up just before we recorded. And, you know, I'm not even sure I love this number, but I feel like I had to get something for the show since we've been doing these best bet shows, and oftentimes we'll have three, four, sometimes even five best bets. And I was able to get to three once I include my Dolan teaser of the week.

You call me The Tees. The tease, Joe, the tease Dolan. Yeah, so my teaser of the week is coming up a little bit later. But I went to the Falcons and Vikings game, and I'm betting against the Falcons. And I'm betting against the Falcons in a prop. And I'm going with JJ. I'm going with Justin Jefferson. I know they had a great game defensively last week against the Chargers.

Jefferson has zero games over 17 PPR fantasy points in the last month. However, over the last five weeks, Atlanta is the single. softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside wide receivers in terms of fantasy points per game. This is from Jake Tribby's wonderful early look article, DFS early look article up at fantasy points per game. It's the second highest total on the slate. For DFS users, his prices dropped significantly. For me, the numbers at 81 and a half. I don't adore that, but he went over 99 against Arizona. He had 81 against Tennessee a couple of weeks ago. And, uh, in, in, uh, from weeks five through eight, he had 85, 92, 81, 115, 137.

So Justin Jefferson, he's been cold recently, but this is a number he should be able to get to. Give me Justin Jefferson over 81 and a half against an Atlanta team that has been hemorrhging points to outside wide receivers. Yeah, the 11th most to outside receivers. 11 both receiving yards per game. And cover three, they run a lot of cover three, you know, averaging 3.25 yards per route run. for Justin Jefferson. So yeah, you look at any number and Justin Jefferson's going to pop. But I do like this one. The Falcons have been picked on on the outside all year.

I got a JJ as well, Joe. I'm going to Juan Jennings. Oh. Another JJ wide receiver here. Got his number at 54 and a half receiving yards. I'm liking this one a lot. We got Christian McCaffrey out of the mix now again. So I think that does open up a few targets.

I don't think Isaac Arendo is going to be featured heavily in the passing game. Patrick Taylor, I doubt it as well. And I also look towards that running game. Maybe it's going to struggle a little bit more with some new faces back there. We had Jordan Mason earlier in the season. So maybe this is a team that has to be a little more pass heavy. I know it's against the Bears. Everybody runs against the Bears so far this year.

But looking to the passing game here, we have Jennings projected for about 69 receiving yards. and since Iyuk has been, Brandon Iyuk has been out of the lineup here in the four games since then, since they're by. That's when Jennings has been in the lineup here. He missed a little bit of time there before they're by. He's leading the team in target share at 28.8%.

Air yard share at 37.6%. And first read share at 36.3%. So he's been become the new number one target. Maybe he was even the number one target before Iyuk was out. So I'm liking everything that's kind of lining up here. Chicago plays a lot of cover 3, 41.3%. And he's averaging 1.77 yards per round run. Not a great number, but I think it still stands out among these receivers that are left in San Francisco.

So looking for Jennings over 54.5. I thought this number should be up in a high 50s. So getting a little bit of a discount here at the current price. Tom, I don't have anything else from the Sunday slate except for my teaser, so I know you have a couple ATS bets. I want to hear you break those down, see what you like on the slate. Well, I have a similar one to you so I'll leave you to that one with the Atlanta Falcons.

We can get into that one, but I do like... That was my bet with the Falcons. My Falcons, it was them hemorrhaging points against JJ. I don't actually have a bet on the spread in this game. Well, there we go. I have a bet on the Minnesota Vikings in this game then. I'm fading the Falcons after what I saw last week. We gave this out at four and a half on Monday. It's up to five and a half. I'd still bet it there. Once it gets to six, I'd probably lay off though. But we're still under that key number of six here. But this is basically a fate of what we've seen from Kirk Cousins the last couple of weeks. He's been an abomination,

basically. He has zero touchdown, six interceptions. I'm worried about it. him. I know this is a revenge game for him. I know he wants to play well in it, but I'm sure the Vikings also want to show that we're in a much better situation here with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Did you guys see the stat that was floating around this past week about the, you know, Kirk Cousins didn't attempt to pass over 36 miles per hour? Yeah, I didn't see that. Last week, first quarterback to do that with 20 or more attempts. That concerns me a little bit going against this Vikings defense that's very opportunistic. What's the context there, by the way?

Like, I, like, if we know if a pitcher, right, doesn't, if his fastball average is 93 miles an hour and he's topping out at 88 in a game, that's bad. Like, what's the, what's the scale? What's the one to one scale here? I don't, I don't know, actually. That's a great question, but I know 36 miles per hour is not very fast. I mean, that's, that's how I know it in my head. I mean, I would think most of these guys, especially for thrift.

throwing stuff to the outside to the perimeter. Like, it's got to be in the 40s. They're putting some zip on it. So that's a great question, Joe. So, but yeah, I'm really worried about him going against this Vikings defense. They're going to be blitzing the hell out of them. We know they love to do that anyway. And he's been better, you know, when he's been pressure a little bit this year.

But I just hate this little spot for me. This could be the end of the Kirk Cousin's era in Atlanta. if this game goes poorly for him. So I'm looking for the Vikings to go after a wounded duck here and take down Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons. Lay the points with Minnesota this weekend. Well, I'm looking at a I'm looking at next gen stats right now and I can't even really find their speed. I guess that might have been one of those just like that they have in the database. And, you know, let let me see if I can find Josh Allen's average velocity time.

while you have another ATS bet I think that well let's go there I actually have a Josh Allen wager here I took the bills laying four points against the the Rams I actually looks like there might be a three and a half out there for the bills right now there's it's some split lines four and a half fours and three and a half so it looks like a draft king so maybe could even get a better price on this one I think I think there's a little bit of support for the Rams just because people think this might be a you know little bit of a soft spot for the for the bills after playing on Sunday night football wrapping up the AFCE's title maybe they were partying a little bit but this seems like a team that's kind of

on a mission this year they want to they want to get Josh Allen the MVP they want to continue to put the pressure on the Kansas City Chiefs who actually play after them on Sunday so they would like to win in that four o'clock window to say hey chiefs you know we're right behind you if you drop a game against the Los Angeles Chargers. So I think the timing of these games is important. I think that the bills will want to come out here and dominate. They've played against two NFC West teams already. And they, three teams actually,

they played Cardinals earlier in the season. But they beat the 49 years, obviously by 25 points last week, 21 points over the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago as well. So they've dominated in the recent weeks here against these NFC West teams. honestly, I like the Rams a lot last year. I was backing them quite a bit down the stretch. And this does not look like the same Rams offense that we saw at times last year. Cooper Cup had a player prop on him last week.

Only 17 receiving yards against that bad Saints defense. This hasn't looked like the same explosive offense. So I think the bills keep it rolling here. They've gotten to 30 points in six straight games. I think they're going to make it seven here and win by margin out in Los Angeles. Give me minus four for the Buffalo Bills. Well, I am going to talk about that game as well. But Tom, I want to tell you, basically from my limited research here looking at NFL

combine numbers, anything under 50 miles an hour is generally considered pretty slow. Do you remember when Deshaun Watson, though, this is pre? what we know about Deshawn Watson now. But there were big like concerns about him at the combine because his average velocity at the combine was not good. That was 45 miles an hour. Wow. And Kirkie is down at,

Kirkies throwing Ephes pitches out there. Well, that's what they were, the chargers were basically, they were baiting, baiting him to throw to the outside. They were like just showing it like it was open. And then just, you know, they were,

that's how they got a couple of interceptions. So yeah. Kirkie, man. Like, this was terrible. But yeah, so Josh Allen has had some throws and Mahomes has had some throws clock north of 60. I mean, with a football hole. That's pretty freaking slow for Kirkie, though.

I mean, he's, and by the way, that is justifiable just by watching television. Oh, yeah, I know, no, it doesn't look good. I mean, even his decision, like he, he, the, the touchdown of the, the pass that he threw into the end zone to try to get a touchdown. He threw it into triple, you know, the decision making is even not there. So, yeah, I worry a lot about this Falcons team this weekend. So we were listening on the Game Day show. I was hosting with Justin Fenstrom in this past weekend on Sirius X-M.

And we were listening into that Falcons as they were trying to go ahead for the game-winning touchdown. And the announcers are like, and Kirk drops back. And I think it was a fourth down play. So, I mean, take that with a grain of salt, you know, who cares if you throw an interception on fourth down. And he's like, and then Kirk Troth's back, and it's intercepted. Like, it was just like very matter of fact. Like this.

They knew it was coming. Yes, this is how this game ends. So it was not a pretty sight out there by any stretch of the imagination. So Tom, you have the bills laying the four. Well, they're included in Dolan's teaser of the week. Why not go right back to the well? The bills, baby. I teased them to minus one.

No sweat there. I had the Eagles plus nine. No sweat there. Even though they got down nine nothing. By the time the second quarter rolled around, it was pretty obvious the Eagles were the right side of that. So I'm going right back to the bills. Now, I actually tease them from, I actually tease them on a six-point teaser from, I believe it was four and a half. I got it down to one and a half to plus one and a half for the bills.

So I essentially need the bills to beat the Rams straight up, essentially, in this game, this two-team teaser for minus 126 point teaser. And, you know, my first two teasers of the season when I started, all of a sudden just decided to start doing this in week 11 were blued up, as well, as my nephew used to say, they got blued up by bad legs on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs could not cover plus eight and a half against the bills in week 11. They could not cover minus four and a half in weeks. I even forget who the hell they played, but they could cover. I do it was the Carolina Panthers. Yeah. So here is what I did.

I'm teasing against them. Give me the Chargers plus the 10 points against Kansas City. Kansas City can't beat anybody by margin right now. Tom, they can't cover spread to save their lives. And they can't beat anybody by margin. So I feel very comfortable putting the Chargers plus 10 as a leg in this teaser. Yeah, I like it. I was thinking about betting the Chargers just at plus four this week.

I wanted to see more information on Ladd-McConkie, because that is the one thing that kind of scares me about this. Limited in practice on Wednesday. Yeah, this Chargers offense. I mean, it's literally just Lab McConkey at this point. I mean, nobody, none of the outside receivers are really helping. Quentin Johnston's a mess. The running game is completely non-existent.

We saw last week, even the offensive line was having issues blocking the Atlanta Falcons who couldn't get to the quarterback before last week. So that would be the one thing I would be looking at. We need Ladd McConkey to play. But if he does, this has been the spot where we've been picking on the Chiefs all season out of the slot here. So like Ladd McConkey to keep the momentum going, even like Will Disley potentially here for some player props once those come out for this game. But that would be the one thing I'd be watching this weekend. Make sure we're lads out there.

But 10 and a half against this Chief's team that can't beat anybody by margin. Yeah, I like that leg. T-bro, my ringlight has a mind of its own. It just went out, and I think that means only one thing. Like the Undertaker, you know, the Undertaker comes out in wrestling. The lights go off, you know, boom. Almost mean Big friend Trey. Big friend, Trey, good friend Trey, is approaching the podcast here.

He's got a rant for us. And, of course, he's got some general Thursday night slop. I'm going to try to get these lights back working. and maybe like when the Undertaker goes like this. Yeah, whenever he comes on, it will just turn on. Maybe I'll be able to do that. We're going to get a word from our sponsors and then good friend Trey will return to the show. Welcome back to the show.

Good friend Trey joins us here. The man who on now 13th, this is our 14th best bets podcast. The man has hit one bet of his slop bets. And it was the easiest one for him to hit. And he still almost didn't hit it because he, He trusted the Kansas City Chiefs, which we have learned not to do. Good friend, Trey. I mean, you've been working in the lab.

You've got something for Thursday night. But man, you're coming at us like you're on around the horn with like a speech here tonight that you have prepared. You didn't win anything. Normally on around the horn, you only get your speech when you win. You haven't won, but hey, I guess you have the floor anyway for something that I guess is pretty controversial. Yeah, this is kind of my one time each week.

I can get my takes out there and this is my platform and something's been on my mind, you know, the last couple weeks, Joe, and I got to get it off my chest. What's here? What's bothering you here, Trey? First, I'd like to address my biases here. So I am not an Indianapolis Colts fan, okay? And I am not a Florida Gators fan. I want that on the record.

Secondly, I needed to show up today to defend Anthony Deshawn. Richardson senior quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, okay? People are talking way too recklessly on my guy. Somebody needs to stand up for him. Somebody needs to say something. So I'm here today to do that. This may take a little bit. I apologize in advance.

Here we go. Last week against the Patriots, okay? Anthony Richardson accounted for every touchdown that team scored, okay? Every touchdown, including a game-winning drive, right, that he capped with a rushing two-point conversion. in a one point win we got that on the record but tray this is the you know the peanut but tray he was 12 of 24 with 109 yards that's what they're saying i this pardon my french guys okay what the fuck are we talking about we got me we got me what are we talking about with this the completion percentage stuff this is not drew breeze that we're talking about okay this isn't

This guy's not from the Drew Breeze mold. This is more Josh Allen, right? We've always known this about him. Do you guys remember off top of your head what Josh Allen's completion percentage was his rookie season? He played 12 games. Any guesses? It was like 52%. Yeah, 52.8%.

All right. I just comparing people to Josh Allen is a good way to get people fired. But let's just keep going on. Just keep going. Right, but there's no other comparison. And I have more stats to back up why that's a fair comparison. In 13 career games, Anthony Richardson, okay? 50.8% a little bit lower, but again, this is not a death sentence,

this local appreciation percentage early. Okay. Now, here's the peanut gallery again. But Dre! Anthony Richardson isn't a rookie. This is the second year in the NFL. Can I offer one suggestion to these people? Okay.

Should we consider using our brains for just one second? Should we? Let's do that. Anthony Richardson has 692 career pass attempts between college and the NFL. That's a real stat, okay? 692 attempts. Let's compare that to Josh Allen, who after his rookie season had 969 between college and the pros. Let's compare that to Drake May, who had 1,28 between now and when his college career started.

Let's compare that to Jaden Daniels, who has 1,800 attempts between when he first started in now. Okay. Bo Nix, 2,300 and 70 attempts in his college career and so far his NFL career. Now, one more thing I need to add, because I really don't think you guys will believe this, but it's true. Okay. Bo Nix has nearly 600 more completions in college than Anthony, Richardson has attempted passes his entire life. Think about that for one second. Well, I'm also thinking of, of like, maybe like he shouldn't have been the fourth pick in the draft

because of this is what he should complete more passes to attempt more passes. He's got to get the attempts in. Okay. It's like anything in life, guys, you cannot skip the line. You got to put the working, which brings me to what my biggest issue is, is the narrative around this benching, okay, of Anthony Richardson. These are going to be some strong words, okay? This benching was the single dumbest football decision in my 30 years of life. Any level. I'm talking flag football.

I'm talking junior high. Never seen anything dumber than the benching of Anthony Richardson. Okay. Here's the peanut gallery again. But Dre, he learned from this benching. It was better for him. It's good that Stike and did that. I'm calling bullshit.

Full stop bullshit. And I'm going to tell you why, okay? By all accounts, this guy, okay, is a leader and an upstanding citizen. There's never been a character concerned with Anthony Richardson until he taps the helmet. Okay. And you could argue that a good leader, right? Maybe honesty is a good, a good trait of a good leader, you know, but I'll see. that point so we have one thing one thing that we know where he's made a mistake and he

maybe show poor leadership qualities okay and we're saying man we got to put him on the pine so he can learn to be mature that is absolute bullshit i need to say and on this note so you guys know jacob sanderson dynasty points right right he put it better than anybody else that i'd ever seen put it he says and it's paraphrasing but basically he said that you know, people were thinking that playing Joe Flacco was the best move to save jobs, right? And he said that it's actually the opposite. By benching your future franchise quarterback who only needs reps, the only thing he needs, Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen should have instead just signed their resignation letters that day.

And I think he's 100% right about that. I don't think the decision was made by Shane Steichen or Chris Ballard. That's to say, my next point is we think Shane Stuyckin. is a good head coach, right? We like Shane Steichen. We got no reason to believe he's an idiot. Shane Steichen wouldn't make that decision, right? But what do we know? Who should I say is an idiot? Okay. I mean, let's think about it, right? Let's think about it. It's Ursae. It of course had to be Ursae. Okay? And I've, you know, I've done the professional sports operations thing. I've seen how the sausage is made. It's my belief, as it seems to be your belief, Tom, that Erse made that call. So this whole the benching was great and it worked. That's absolute garbage.

I'm not taking that anymore. I've gone on too long, but all this to stay, okay, you got to stop praising the benching, okay? You got to stop using this completion percentage to tell this whole story. And you've got to give this kid some credit for what he's doing. Okay. This is some unbelievable stuff as much as people want to make fun of it and talk about how bad he is. And I want to say this. Anthony Richardson, so I'm on record, is a gift.

from the fantasy football gods. And right now is the best time to change your tune and show this man some respect and jump on the bandwagon. That is my rant. I don't know if I buy in just yet, but... He needs the reps, though. That is for sure. I will agree with that.

Here's the thing, though. Here's the thing with this. How do we decide which guys need reps and which guys need to sit and learn? because I have become a staunch rookie QB should sit bro because we saw what happened to Bryce Young and we saw what happened to Anthony Richardson like how do you know

like oh he needs reps well then why did Bryce Young need to sit or why did Jordan Love need to sit I don't what is the answer to this question that's the thing I have that like how do you decide which ones need to play and which ones need to sit? The answer to this question

lies in the historical disgusting lack of reps. I mean, this isn't like every rookie quarterback needs reps, right? We, in whatever capacity. This guy has barely played. And you see this across sports, and the best analogies I can make are NBA analogies. You look at a guy like Joelle Embed.

You look at a guy like Donovan Mitchell, two examples. Guys that didn't even start playing basketball until, Joel, he was a volleyball player. And all of a sudden he starts playing, I mean, this type of untapped potential in these guys that have barely played to do what he's doing and have only ever attempted 700 passes in like organized great and this is SEC and i mean i'm not counting high school obviously but like that's the situation we're in this is a total unicorn and that's why i respect your question

we have to look at this through a different lens because this guy is like the joel and bead who did not play you know any meaningful whatever until he's 19 years i mean this is this is the the unicorn of all unicorns right here. So this is why it's a situation where I think it needs to be treated a little bit differently. When you're talking about a Knicks versus a Bright's Young, right? Like, Nick's, the book was out on Nix that he had more reps than anybody would ever need in college, right? We knew he was going to be ready. Same with Michael Pennix, right?

Then you get into that middle territory of normal rookie quarterbacks. But this is a 100% unicorn situation. I'm asking the public, please take a second look at this situation. Well, he has a chance to change the narrative here. They are in the buy here this week. And they got the Broncos out of the buy. If they can pull off that win, they have such an easy schedule down the stretch. Titans, Giants, Jaguar, like, they could get right back into the AFC playoff hunt.

So hopefully they come out, hopefully he comes out and balls out here in the final four games of the year. I think he is building a little bit of momentum. But, yeah, the, you know, I know he needs. the wraps, but we need to be completing more than half of our passes. Let's come on. When, not if, when the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South. You remember, you remember this? It feels like there should be a bet there that you can make. Well, we did. That was, that was the original, that was his first bet at the via the first podcast. Yes. And I jumped the gun. Okay, I jumped the gun. I think he's an MVP level town. He's not there yet. But it's in there. And I still,

think they're going to win the division. You remember this day. I'm on that. All right. Well, I, I, I, if you, you can dunk on us if this, if this hits and maybe it hits as soon as after the buy, but that's not what people came here for. They came here for your slop. So, I know, I know we can make it quick. Is it plus 1,400 on the Colts to win the AFC salary, you know, just doubling down on it? I would, I would never call that slop. Okay. No, I do, I do have a little Thursday night bet, as you gentlemen have said, the lines are pretty thin out there for the rest of the week. So I get a little four-leg parlay that I feel pretty good about. So I'm going to roll through these picks all four of them and then see what you guys think. So very quickly, David Montgomery,

five or more receiving yards in the first quarter. I don't do a lot of first quarter bets, but Jair Alexander's out. I got another corner out, linebacker out. Okay. I think the line should be looking to attack in the past early. And I don't know what to say about this Gibbs doghouse narrative. I don't know if it's real or not. But if he gets dinged a quarter, maybe, you know, the only way you're going to benefit from that is maybe in the first quarter. And I think you'd benefit in this way,

where David Montgomery, you know, might get just an extra checkdown. You know what I mean? Just one extra checkdown. That's all you need for a bet like this. So I was trying to exploit the doghouse narrative if it was even there. But I'm not going to go all in on something like that by any means. So there's a little little. little shot at that.

He usually gets starts and he plays the first series or two, too. So that's, and then Gibbs kind of rotates, gets rotated in. So he should get the, he should get the early chances out of the backfield. Yeah, that's more of a bonus. He gets, it's standalone possibility, stand alone possible. But if Gibbs, if they're just like, make him sit a quarter, make it, you know, then you get maybe an extra checkdown. There's a little bonus on that.

The next leg, I don't think you guys are going to like. It's Jaden Reed. okay and it's going to be 70 receiving yards and if you've seen what jaden reeds done lately okay oh you're not going to be a fan of that number but i will say the last time these two teams met okay he went for 113 yards uh and quite frankly i think he's going to have to be involved okay for them to even have a shot in this game uh i think the lions again i know they're a little banged up but possibly the best team in football uh yeah he's going to have to get active and uh this is part where I actually had this in my notes,

but you guys mentioned it earlier. If you don't like this leg, just go bet Christian Watson ladders. That's exactly what I was going to say. So now that we're in agreeing on that, it's probably going to be Tucker Kraft for 150 yards. Todd Tavian Wicks game finally comes along. Yes.

So that's leg two, leg three and four very quickly, pretty easy. Tim Patrick, two plus receptions. He's hit this number in four or five games, and the game he didn't hit it was golf's five interception game. So that, I'm feeling like that's easy money.

Maybe I'll get humbled. And then the Lions Money Line. I think they're maybe the best team in football. It's a home game. And this isn't a team that is going to overlook the Packers because they don't like the Packers. It's very well established. This is a rare legit rivalry these days where, you know, maybe that's coming from the former NBA guy where they're, you know, people don't care about the games really. But this feels like a real true rivalry.

And there's some real kind of hatred and disgust there. So I think the lions win this easy. I think the Packers need to try to keep up. I think they'll be throwing a lot. Those four legs parlayed, that's going to be plus 1453 and a nice little payout to start your week. T. bro, which of those legs would you be most worried about? A couple of them. No, now the Gibbs one, you know, I don't know.

That one's scary. But at least I do think he'll get most of the reps in that backfield in the first quarter. The Detroit one, that one scares me a little bit too. I think the money that's been out there this week, it feels like there's some momentum for the Packers because of these injuries. So I'd hate to see you hit the first three and then the Packers win this game late and you lose it on that final leg with the Detroit lines. But those would be the two that scare me the most.

I do like, I did consider Jaden Reed. We've seen Keenan Allen crushing that match up last week. They're giving up the second most receiving yards per game to, receivers in the slot. And if we get Dobbs out, you know, Reed should bust out here one of these weeks. He's probably due for a big performance.

So he was my second choice for player props. So no, no issue with that one. Well, T-Bro, I kind of agree about the lines. But I also agree with Trey. Dan Campbell is not anybody who's going to overlook anybody, whether it be the Green Bay Packers, whether it be the Carolina Panthers,

whether it's why this game's going to be fun to want. I mean, it really feels like, you know, true 5545 kind of game. Yeah, I'm really excited for this one tonight, if you're listening tonight. Hopefully, if you've listened to this podcast, the prop market has opened up. And I want to make sure everybody gets into the fantasy points subscriber discord, where Tom Broley is going to be posting his best bets and his article will be out all week. Trey Camberley, he'll throw his bets in there as well.

Yeah, we have to do a best bets college parlay here as well. Oh, shit. How did I forget about this? We go Penn State and the. Big 10 championship against Oregon. And we got Iowa State against Arizona State and the, the Big 12 championship. I think it's around plus 415.

If you do a money line parley with those two. So you want to, if you want us to be happy next week and you want to be happy, you know, parlay the nitty lions and the cyclones together this week. Yeah, I'll just put a couple. I'll do that right now. I can't believe I forgot about that because I was the one who had to, who, uh, I was the one who was like, yeah,

I'm going to, we'd have to do slop on the podcast, and I completely forgot about it. We are, we are Nittney Lions supporters. Graduates, too. Graduates, Trey Camberling, you are not an Iowa State graduate, but you are a lifelong Iowa state fan. You actually, as a matter of fact, went to a school that put Kurt Warner in the league in Northern Iowa. Yeah, all right, I'm on it. I'm on it, baby. Plus, I got it at plus four, I got it at plus four 10. So, all right, there we go.

That's pretty nice. There you know, money line parlay. Yeah, I'll say we're going to hit this bet. You know, it's going to be a nice little, nice little win. But then we hit the bet, then we're in the clear. But next week, there's some, there's some projections out there that the big 12 winner will match up with Penn State. And I say that's bad news for the Nits. Well, they're just got to take care of business this weekend.

Yeah, they better. Yeah, they better take care of business. Yeah. Just take care of business weekend. We can sit back, kick up the feet a little bit and, you know, watch that first round of the play. If we get to that point, there will be a monster bet. I'll go to war for my cyclones if we get to that point. So massive bet on that.

Well, I had to cancel my golf lesson early Sunday morning because I said to my teacher, I said, I did not anticipate a very important Penn State game to be played on that Saturday night. And there will be an important Penn State game played on that Saturday night. There's a very important game being played on Thursday night football tonight. I hope everybody checks it out. I'm Joe. If that's Tom and good friend, Trey, it's week 14 of the NFL season.

I hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving. I hope everybody has a wonderful Christmas coming up. We're going to be here all along the way to help you out. Take it easy, everybody.