Fantasy Football Daily - Thursday Night Football Crap Fest + Wagers for the Weekend and Trey's Steiner Math | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: October 17, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

the best best show here at Fantasy Points, Fantasy Points, YouTube, Fantasy Points Now, wherever you consume your fantasy points content is here. I'm Joe, that's Tom. Good friend Trey, the world's worst gambler, is coming off an absolute heater. And I mean heater because he's the world's worst gambler and he has further reinforced that after what happened last week. I can't wait to bring him back to recap that disaster. But Tom, I continue to be the absolute embodiment of this show saying, we're not wise, we're just guys. I am exactly 500 on my best bets on the year. I am 8 and 8.

I am not going to be 500 after this week, though. Well, I guess I could. There could be a push. Yeah, there are going to be 500 after this week because I have five best bets that I want to get to. I got rationale behind all of them. T-bro, what's going on, man? How did you do last week? How'd the card make out?

Oh, good, good. It's doing well. I went seven and four on my player props and two, oh and one on the ATS bets. I sent a little bit of money to Trey just to get the lights back on in his place. So I thought that would be the nice thing to do. So the bets did well. I missed a couple. I missed two props by a half a yard, though.

I had Tage Spears over his rushing yards. He was half a yard away. at halftime and he didn't play in the second half and also had a Jamar Chase that missed by a half a yard. So that close to being nine and two on the player props last week. But that's that's going to happen with these player props. So never complain about a winning week. So did you get that Jordan love prop? I have to ask you because that one was that I did.

Okay. That finished right around where that number. I got 256 and a half was the number I got. And he got, he threw for 258. And I know there was a controversy that at one point it looked like he. He got the 266, but they called it a running play. Yeah, they switched it because I think it was, it was like a nine yard game.

It was up to like 267 or whatever it was for a little bit. And then they switched it back to 258. I know that was like a, because I know John, I think had, he gave it out later in the week and it was at 260. So I was wondering if you, it was too. Yeah, I got a good number.

Okay, good, good. I got a good number. Glad that you got that in the wind column because they did nothing in that second, you know, the second half really, and especially in that fourth quarter, there was very little going on in the passing game because they were winning so much. The one I, the one I missed on was Terry McLaren. I missed by like three yards because the end zone kept stopping his progress. He scored two touchdowns in that game. So I missed that one. You know, if I miss like that because a guy scores two touchdowns, I'm not going to lose my mind because obviously my process was right. The one that that made me look really bad was Trey put the ass compilation together.

of me talking about Brandon Iuk's great ass, and he didn't even come close. As soon as Debo Samuel scored that long touchdown on that broken play where the safety just completely missed his pursuit, I was like, oh, that's a losing bet. It's not going to hit, and it didn't. But I got Jordan Love and I got one. Tom, I'm going to go back to the well with this week. And we'll hear about that a little bit later. So on this program, we typically like to talk about the Thursday.

night football game. We record on Wednesday, afternoon's, evenings, and that's typically the game that has the most robust prop market. You know, the most of the injury reports are out and all that. We can really analyze it. T-Bro, I do have a bet on tonight's game. I don't know if I'm going to watch it. This might be the first Thursday night primetime game where I'm just like, you know what, I got something better to do. I can tickle my pickle my pickle. I can do whatever it is that is going to be more entertaining and better for me than watching Spencer Rattler against Bo Nix. Spencer Rattler doesn't have Chris Oliva. He's not going to have a speed, Chehid, concussion and the knee injury for Shaheed.

The Broncos aren't going to have their best defensive player in Patrick Sertan. It's going to be an absolute slopper out there. But I do have a wager. Do you have one? I do. And I feel like I have to, you know, give something out there. We have to make this game somewhat entertaining. I am at least a little bit interested. I haven't really seen them really up close.

I did see Bow Knicks against the Steelers a little bit. That was an atrocious game. I do kind of want to see Rattler here a little bit, but it's tough to take much away from either of these guys. They're both playing with limited weapons right now. This line has completely flipped. The Saints were favorites coming in and just all these injuries that the Saints are dealing with.

Now they are three point underdogs in some spots. So really tough spot. That offensive line is really banged up for them. But I do have a bet here. I'm not feeling great about it with the line switch. I was just trying to find something I liked. But Giovante Williams, I'm going to go with over his receiving yards. I can see them the Saints really trying to sell out and stop the run.

They got embarrassed last week by Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. So I could see them really trying to bottle up their run game a little bit, but I think that could lead to some easier passes. We know that Sean Payton likes to get his backs involved in the passing game, and it's his return to New Orleans here. So I'm looking at his receiving prop, and the Saints have been pretty giving in the passing game to opposing backfields as well, giving up the sixth most receiving yards per game.

game. Both Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker had some success as receivers last week as well. And just a couple of weeks, Tyler Algier and Bijon Robinson. So this is something I think that they could exploit. And the receivers are a little thin in Denver right now. Josh Reynolds is out. So the weapons aren't nearly as robust. And Chavante was out on the field for 59% route share last week as well, even with Audrick Estimate back in the mix. So that was the one thing that I found that kind of stood out here. So I have to have some sort of wager on this Thursday night game. What did you find, Joe, to make this game interesting? This is a first. And I am not actually using Justin Barnes's research here. Because this is going to be such a shit fest, I had to take a

look at some of the numbers. And we have a scout on staff at FantasyPoint.com. Scott de Benedetto, and he viewed this Saints' offensive line against this Broncos' defensive line as a major matchup to avoid from a fantasy standpoint. Denver has the eighth best pressure rate over expectation, and quarterback Spencer Rattler for the Saints was pressured 21 times against the Buccaneers last week, took five sacks. I got a plus. 100 wager on Nick Benito to basically go over a quarter of a sack. Ergo Nick Benito, who has four sacks and six games to get a half a sack was plus 100, right on even.

Rattler was under complete distress last week. Cesar Ruiz is still going to be out. Lucas Patrick, the other interior lineman, he's questionable. He only got limited practices in on Tuesday and Wednesday. and Spencer Rattler was pressured 21 times by the Buccaneers last week. Give me Nick Benito to get at least half a sack of Spencer Rattler in this game. Yeah, the Buccaneers and Broncos are pretty similar teams. They both are right at the top of our fantasy points date.

Pressure rates and blitz rates is what I was looking for. They both like the blitz of the hell out of quarterbacks. And Buccaneers were playing pretty passive in the first half last week. And then they started to really dial up the pressure. So I'm going to guess that the Broncos limited week here, but I'm going to guess they watch that tape and are going to follow a very similar formula where they're going to blitz the crap out of Rattler

and put a lot of pressure on that offensive line. So I just looked it up. Bonito, 42. All right, I'll have my eyes on Nick Benito tomorrow tonight here. I had to, I did not know Nick Benito's numbers. So now I know, and I'll be looking for him to make a sack. Benito, Bonito, Bonito. Well, we will, we but need to pay the bills.

So we'll be right back after a little quick word from our sponsors. And then I want to talk the London game on Sunday morning, Tom. I've got a wager on that game. Let's see if you agree with that or not. All right, Tom. One of the first bets that I hit on this podcast this year was in week three. And now I, in week two, I went 0 for three. In week three, I actually started to catch a little bit of fire.

And I corrected my process from week two when I had losing right from the get-go spread picks. I had the Colts in week two against Malik Willis. That was a loser right from the opening kickoff and I knew it. I had the Cowboys minus six and a half in week two against the Saints. That was a loser right from the opening kickoff and I knew it. And then in week three, I said, let me reevaluate my process here. Let me go through and just look at the numbers and just kind of evaluate what I was missing. And one of the bets that I made in week three was Carolina with Andy Dalton at quarterback getting six points against the Raiders.

And the reason I made that wager was because I sat there and said to myself, I don't care if the Raiders are coming off a win against Baltimore. It was kind of a fluky win. Baltimore gave them the game. My thought process was the Raiders should not be favored by six points against him. anybody. I have the similar thought for Sunday morning in London. I don't care who the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing. Doug Peterson would have been fired if they didn't stay over in London. Doug Peterson's out there talking after that game that we have no culture, we don't have talent,

our players don't buy in. He's basically blaming literally everything, including himself. He was blaming himself. I know the Patriots just got beat by 20. Drake May, though, kind of stepped up. I thought he played well. I thought he did some really interesting things. But ultimately, my wager here is the Jaguars is six point favorites. They should not be favored by a touchdown against anybody. I don't care what team it is.

Give me the Patriots plus the six. I got it at minus 120 so that I had to pay a little bit of juice to get that extra half a point. By the time you're listening to this, I saw some six and a halfs. I only have one book available to me because I bet offshore. So I sometimes I get a worse number just because I'm not shopping around in crypto books. But look, there might be a five and a half, a five out there. I don't know how you feel about that, Tom. That's a really strange number.

But I got the Patriots getting the six against Jacksonville because I don't think the Jaguar should be favored by a touchdown. Yeah, I'm seeing five and a halfs pretty much across the board right now on a Wednesday night here before we release this podcast on Thursday morning. opinion on buying points then to get to a key number? I mean, this early in the week, I'd wait. You know, this is, I'd wait for the market to mature a little bit. Maybe the, maybe the lines move. And hey, these books start the price numbers off of each other. So they try to get action.

So, but I do like the Patriots side in this one. We discussed this a little bit last week that Doug Peterson was the favorite to get fired next. And we, you know, we thought that, hey, he might have, may have gotten fired last, you know, after another loss, but they're not going to do it right in the middle of a road trip to London. So maybe this team has quit on him. He's talking about the culture in the press conferences. And I feel like the Patriots,

the only reason I think this line is up at five and a half because I keep my own power rankings. And I'm even giving the Jaguars like a point for this game, just because they're already over there. They're used to playing over in London. I still make this probably closer to a four, four and a half point line. The only reason I think it's up this high is just because we have a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback doing this first big trip for the first time.

So I think they're tacking on an extra point or two. But I mean, this Jaguars team, Andre Sisko was talking about how he was seeing guys quitting in front of him. And what's going to happen this week against an inferior opponent? And are they really going to go out there and step on throats? and I just don't see it. So yeah, I'm with you here. I do like this Patriot side. But if I was betting on it, I'd probably wait to try to get that six.

The six is a pretty key number, especially if there's overtime or something like that happens where you want to get that full six points. So what if it comes to Sunday morning and you're looking to get a bet on down on this game, I would take the five and a half. Yeah, by the way, Caleb Williams, I guess, broke the mini rookie quarter. in London curse last week.

Yeah. Absolutely lighting the Jaguars up. And I don't know if Drake May has the weaponry to do that the way Caleb does, but Drake May certainly acquitted himself pretty well last week. And I just don't think the Jaguars should be laying this number against anyone. Do you have anything to tell them? Actually, as a matter of fact, I think you do have something on the Sunday morning game. That might come into discussion a little bit later.

I do. I'll let Trey all. Trey, I kind of, I kind of, I took a little advice from Trey. He kind of let me keep behind the scenes about what he was going to cook up here later. I like the one leg to the to the prop that he was the two of the to the parlay that he was putting together. So I did tell that one. But I do have a I have a couple bets. I do like the Giants this week.

I know they're going up against your Eagles. I did get it at three and a half. But it's a little concerning some of the injuries on the giant side now. Starting to creep up here. Andrew Thomas. I knew that was, I knew he probably wasn't going to be involved, but they've had a couple of deep, their top defenders also missing practice here on Wednesday.

So Brian Lawrence, Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence. Both of whom say they're going to play, but they are dinged up, which yeah, the fact that they're a little, you know, that was kind of a big part of this handicap is that I think that the Eagles offensive line isn't playing nearly as well as they have been in the past. And my lot is probably going to miss with the hamstring injury. So, but I do. I do like the Giants catching a field goal, but maybe it stretches back out to three and a half,

which is where I gave it out at. I also, I took the Rams minus four and a half. That one's moved a lot after the Devante Adams trade, but one that's still kind of available here. I think it's two and a half at most places. It looks like it might get the three in some spots is the Packers against this Texans team. I just kind of like this spot. Packers are at home again.

They beat the Cardinals pretty soundly last week at home. This is the second straight week that the Texans will be on the road. They were up in New England last week, one handily there. But now they're going back on the road this week. And I just, I don't like exactly what I've seen. The Texans got actually got a cover for me last week against the Patriots, but they haven't been executing nearly as well as they were last year. And I think this week they could run into a little bit of a buzz saw

against this Packers team that's starting to, you know, hit their stride a little bit. So the Texans injury report is a little concerning to Laramie Tonsils banged up with an ankle injury and Aziz Al-Shireire has a knee injury. So looking at this Packers side, laying minus two and a half, should be a good one up there at Lambeau Field, but I think the Packers, at least situationally, are looking a little bit better this week. I'm going to get into some of the props I have. and I mentioned earlier in the program that I'm going back to the well with one.

And I had one that was a pretty damn easy cover, even though my entire thought process last week, it was surrounding the fact that I thought that Sean Watson was going to get benched. And quite frankly, Tom, at halftime of that game against Philadelphia, he probably should have been benched. I think he could have said that the last couple of weeks, too. No, they are steadfast. keeping him in there. Dee Haslam wants him playing quarterback for the rest of the year,

apparently. Five, five for 11 in the first half against the Eagles. Watson goes 11 of 12 in the second half. Plays, in my opinion, just rewatching that game probably as well as the current version of Deshawn Watson can possibly play. And he doesn't come close to hitting the 191.5 number that he was at last week. This week, Tom, the Browns are getting Nick Chubb back. He's putting up a big thing in the Players Tribune saying he's got Cleveland's back and they've got his and it's going to be a jolt of energy. Well, they also don't have Amari Cooper because they traded Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills. Nonetheless, Deshaun Watson here for Cleveland, his number drops only to 183 and a half despite the fact that his best receiver is now traded, despite the fact that Nick Chubb is now back,

and Cleveland is probably going to try to run the football. I know 183 and a half, Tom, is about as low as you're going to see a number for a starting quarterback in the NFL these days. But Watson has not hit this number in three straight games and in four of six games this year. He hasn't thrown for 200 yards once this year. just give me the under on Deshawn Watson until he's either benched or he finally goes over a number. And if he does go over a number, I'm jumping back on the under again next week. It's just that bad with Deshawn Watson playing historically bad football. They can't make this number low enough for me.

And look, again, the same caveats apply. At some point, somebody's going to get sick of this and they're going to have to pull the plug. and you can take the under on that. Give me the under on Deshawn Watson, 183.5. It's a low number, but again, four of six games this year. He has not hit 184 passing yards. Yeah, and he's been taking a little bit of a beating every week, too, behind this offensive line.

It's starting to get a little healthier, but it's, you know, one that's got, he's taking some hits. So it also could come to that where he gets an injury or something. So as you said, yeah, he hasn't hit 200 yards yet this season. I guess the one concern would be this Bengals defense, has been pretty shaky all season long, but they showed a little bit of a pulse last weekend.

Daniel Jones threw for 205 yards against them, and that was well under his prop. So maybe they're starting to piece some things together here. I guess he could be trail on a lot too, but Watson just is not playing well enough to be betting any, to even be considering over his props. So I'd like hitting this one again. Honestly, Joe, you could just keep.

keep going back to the well on this one until, you know, he proves you, proves you wrong otherwise, because he just looks like, I mean, there's all kinds of stats out there about basically that he's the worst quarterback, the starting quarterback in a long time. And I don't see a change in here, especially with Mari Cooper gone. Maybe Nick Chubb helps out a little bit because I guess he attracts more attention from defenses. But, I mean, he's still got to prove that he can play at a high level, too. So I like that. this under here and I'd like you going back to the well on it. Let me throw one more out there, Tom, because we really like Jaden Daniels at Fantasy Points this week. Jaden Daniels, we have him at

quarterback one. We love his schematic matchup this week. But his number for a rookie quarterback was a little high. I believe the number I saw was 242.5. I thought that was a little high for a rookie quarterback. you know, we haven't really seen him play a poor game yet. And that's going to happen. As impressed as I've been by Jaden Daniels, he's going to play a poor game. And he's probably going to hit a poor stretch at some point. So I wanted to find some value in the margins.

And I thought about going back to the well, Tom, with Terry McLaren. I think he had 53 receiving yards last week. His number was 56 and a half again. I'll take that loss. His progress was stopped twice by the end zone. Like, whatever. We'll take that loss. right process wrong results but his numbers up to 65 and a half and as much as i do still like that

how about the fact that in week six the commander's leader in target share expected fantasy points and air yarded share was noah brown as their number two receiver Noah brown 34 and a half is the number here um for brown who as you'll remember for a hot minute there in houston before he got hurt last year was like in every week you had to start a fantasy receiver when he got moved to Washington in the offseason we were like this is a place where potentially he could emerge you know John Dotson was clearly on the outs and there is really nobody outside of McLaren who was going to step into a role well jaden Daniels trusted him last week with that target share 23 percent he hasn't earned a route share over 62 percent yet in Washington but I do wonder if that's going

in a good matchup with the Carolina Panthers. Give me Noah Brown over the 34 and a half receiving yards, something that he could do in two catches. Yeah, this is a guy. I started highlighting on our Waverwire article this week. I add him to the end of it just as a guy that maybe a pickup now before he really starts to break out here. He was pretty involved in the offense,

even in a limited basis with three catches. And then he picked up an injury missed week five. But back in the lineup last week, and it was a pretty healthy rule. So you think maybe if he gets a little healthier, maybe that continues to expand a little bit. So I'm with you here. This is a guy down in Houston.

I don't think they really wanted to get rid of them, but they had some younger guys and Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchy that they didn't want to necessarily give up on too early. So Brown was kind of just the odd man out. But honestly, they probably would like to go back on that now with Nico Collins out and make that switch now. So I do think I do like this one. I did I did look it up.

42 is where we haven't projected, 42 receiving yards. My only concern would be that with going to the Jaden Daniels prop as well is that kind of saw like the Falcons last week. They got up so much. And then they just kind of rode Tyler Alger for the fourth quarter. This Panthers team is back at the bottom of my power ratings. This team is awful right now. So if the commanders get such a big lead, they might just kind of sit on the ball. And the Panthers can't stop anybody on the ground right now.

But they should be able probably to do enough, at least in the first three quarters, to get you this prop. So I did like this one a lot. He's been pretty active in the passing game. And the Panthers aren't slowing down anybody on the ground or through the air right now. So you get my approval on this one. Tom, do you have any other ones that you're going to? or do we have the prop that you and I are both highlighting this week here that we're going to call a super best bet? Yeah, let's get on that one because you drop that.

And I like that one a lot. I started looking around and I like that one too. Go ahead and introduce it. Yeah. This one is a pretty simple one. The Buffalo Bills are among the five. This is per Jake Tribby's DFS early look article, which is free, by the way, every week at FantasyPoints. fantasy points YouTube 25 by the way gets you the premium package which has all of Tom's best

bets I should not be giving out best bets on the website I give them out for free here because I'm not wise I'm just the guy now T-bro per Jake trippy's article Buffalo was among the five softest scheduled just in matchups for opposing running backs they funnel so much past game volume underneath now this could mean a lot for Tony Pollard as a receiver which is why Jake really likes him. We saw it, by the way, we saw it with, with, uh, with, uh, Brees Hall. Yeah. Now, here is the thing, though. Hit that problem. Tony Pollard with no Taije Spears in this game. Julius Chestnut is going to get what, 15% of the snaps. I thought the number was too low. It's 63 and a half. And I just thought that was too low a number for Tony Pollard as a true bell cow. Um, give me Tony Pollard over the

63 and a half rushing yards. Obviously with Will Levis's, his best move right now is to turn around and hand the ball off, quite frankly. Yeah, and honestly, I think the only reason the numbers this, it seems a little bit low is probably because the Titans are nine and a half point underdogs.

If it gets, there's a chance he could get game scripted out of it. But I do think at least for the first half, they're going to try to, you know, ugly this game up. And I think the Titans defense has actually played relatively well this year. And this Bill's offense isn't exactly

one that you're fearing right now. Maybe that changes with Amari Cooper stretching the field, giving them a vertical threat. But I do expect the Titans to come out here. You know, they don't want to put it in Will Levis's hand. So I think they could ride Tony Pollard. As you said, Julie's chestnuts not going to get that. And he touches here.

I would expect Pollard to be pretty close to a Belcal rule in this game. So we haven't projected close to 80 yards. He's been at 82. in three of his five games, and he's gotten to 16 carries in four or five games. So he's already getting a pretty substantial workload, even with Taji Spears next to him. Now we take him out.

And some of the other numbers for Buffalo, they're giving up the second most adjusted yards per carry per attempt, and 11th most rushing yards per game at 110 per game to running back. So everything about this is screaming that Pollard should go over this, But just as long as Will Levis doesn't throw any pick sixes or give away a couple turnovers deep in their own end. And their, you know, Titans are trailing by 14 points, six minutes into the game. I think we have a real good chance to hit this.

So the most valuable advice that we're going to give you on this podcast would be to fade good friend tray. Because if you have faded good friend tray on this very show, you have made yourself an assload of money. And you've probably been able to keep your electricity on. Let's recap what happened to good friend Trey last week when we come back and see what he's cooking up in the lab for this week. So, Trey, welcome to the program, my friend. How'd your week of the home underdogs go last week?

I mean, it wasn't spectacular by any stretch of the imagination. I'm sure you guys would like to rattle off some stats here real quick, so I will let you do so. Yeah, did you have it? I know you picked three home underdogs last week. There was nine of them last week total. Do you know what the record was overall last week? I know what the record of my three were. Yeah, it was 0 and 3 for yours.

And then it was 0.9 overall for the home underdogs last week. So you would have been much better off just taking a nine leg parley with all the road favorites. And, oh, man, but yeah, I heard that's that. I would have paid for a new mortgage for you if you took it. I need to say, you know, before this goes any further, that there's at the, at the top of the gambling heap, there's the person who's always right. Right below that is the person who's always wrong. They're equally, almost equally valuable.

Because if I'm giving you exactly what's not going to happen every week, that's very valuable information. So I will, I like to say consistency is next to greatness. and if there's one thing that I have been this year, it is consistent. Now, Trey, are you going back to the home underdogs this week? I mean, isn't it a law of averages? Like, it has to balance out. They're going to go like undefeated this week, aren't they?

Somebody will go to the home underdogs this week. It won't be me. I feel like there's a concept for that, Tom. I feel like there's something somebody studied about the law of averages saying, in gambling saying something has to average out, right? It feels like somebody's written something about that at times. number two. Yeah, it's, it's been, I mean, the lights are back on literally, thanks to Tom's generous.

You know, nothing needs to be said. They're much appreciated. But metaphorically, it's as dark, you know, as it's ever been. We're, I mean, we're struggling to get a win here. But, you know, I will say last week I did throw my first hammer in the, in the discord. And that did hit, thankfully, Drake May over. 25 and a half rushing yards. I don't take my hammers lightly. So that was the first one of the season. He did get over that number. But this week, okay, let me just say this. The books, right,

they have an edge over normal gamblers. We know this, right? Absolutely. But they're taking them up away for, you know, everything's minus 110. Yeah. Everything's slated towards them. But like Big Papa Pump said, I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal. Okay. So I've got about a 55 to 60% chance, I think, of beating the books this season. And someone else in my shoes would have about a 100% chance of giving up. They'd be done. They'd be calling it quits. Now, you take my 55% chance of beating the books, plus that 100% chance that I'm not giving up.

I'm not going anywhere. That's going to give you guys and everybody else about a $1,45% chance that I'm not giving. 55% chance that I'm going to win this week and I'm going to come with something special. Sounds like a guarantee to me. Yeah, I mean, it's got to hit this week. I don't know how you argue the, I don't know how you argue the mathematics. 155. I mean, that's greater than 100%.

So, I mean, it's guaranteed. The numbers don't lie. I need to hear it. Here's my picks for you this week. Okay, I'm going to do a little two parlays this week. All right. One wasn't enough. We've been reading too many Alex Pendergrass.

I've got four bets that I love this week. The first one being Drake May, he's going to be over 27 and a half rushing yards. The number is too low. It was too low last week. Even last week he ran, but it wasn't anything spectacular. I don't think that was actually like a ceiling game. He had 38 rushing yards. It was just kind of a normal Drake May game.

I think that's what we're going to kind of see from him as he keeps playing, especially against the Jags, just in complete disarray. I think we're going to see him running all over the field. So in the regular parlay, I got him at 27 and a half. In the boosted parlay, we're taking him over 40 yards, okay? I did like this one. You were talking about this one last week, and I was heavily considering it. I whipped out.

I was like, I want to see a game first. I want to see how he handles it. I got to see it. He looked pretty darn good last week, too. So I'm joining you on this one. The Jags play a lot of man coverage. They've been giving up a lot of rushing production. We saw Caleb Williams that London game last week running around like crazy 56 rushing guards.

So I like this one. I like this leg. And this is a team in the Jags that I think have given up. We kind of hit on a lot of that earlier. The next play, okay, we're going to have Jameson Williams. That's going to be over 46.5 receiving yards. In the bigger parlay, we're going to go over 60 yards. Stephen O'Rourke did a fantastic film room review on Jameson Williams earlier in the season.

The guy can cover that in one play. He's a freak. The only issue is you worried that maybe he gets a carry that wasn't a reception, and all of a sudden it's rushing yards and not receiving yards. But I like Jameson Williams. I like him to have 70 or 80 yards this week. I think it's a big Jameson Williams game. But that's going to be the second leg of these parles.

76 yards and 45 games. He's, this could be a shootout too. Minnesota, they're a pass funneled team here. Got to probably go to the air a little bit more. I like it. I like it. Two legs. I mean, this is,

this is looking like a strong parley so far. They're going to need them. We should just take the guaranteed win with two legs. Not enough. Not enough. We got, we got to get back here. They're going to need them this week.

They're going to need them this week, unlike last week. I had a, Joe knows I had a lot of a deck Prescott stock. Oh, yeah. Yeah, not good. Third leg here. This does not need much explanation.

Chris Godwin, over 68 and a half yards. We're going to alt it up to 80 yards on the ex parlay. Do I have to say anything? Do I need to continue? I mean, he's over every week. He's dominant. He's a beast. He's a wide receiver one, like alpha wide receiver one almost right now.

So, yeah, until they start bumping him up into, you know, A.J. Brown type numbers or guys like that. I mean, this is a pretty high number, but not high enough. So we want to see that on the slips. Not much to say there. And then this one, I'm going to give this a hammer label, okay? And like I said, I've only done one of those this year. I'm going to give this the hammer label. Okay, you're 1.0 on hammers.

Chuba Hubbard over 70 and a half rushing yards. That's the hammer. I like this so much that I'm going to alt him up to over 100 rushing yards in the in the raised up parlay. The commander's defense, we know it's a great matchup for the run. Also great for the pass. Brooks is back practicing. I think it's a little bit too early for him to really, you know,

I think this is Chuba's last stand. And there's a little bit of a narrative there, I think, a little bit of narrative play. Chuba has earned the starting job. He's been awesome. And, you know, Jonathan Brooks is now creeping up behind him, trying to get into the mix. And I think he wants to go out there and make a statement.

And I think there's no better defense in the NFL for him to make that type of statement against than the commander's defense. So that is the final leg of both parley's. The lines are not quite out yet. I do know the alted up parlay is going to be pretty high. It's going to be a nice payout. We're going to take that. We're going to win. We're going to drive off into the sunset.

And we're going to be back, baby. I kind of like them all. I mean, the two but one has me. You know, if that game gets a little out of hand and they have to abandon the run, but it's kind of like the Tony Pollard prop that we talked about earlier. I think they can stay somewhat competitive there. I think he gets enough carries to get it. So I love the first two legs.

Godwin, I mean, that's, I mean, that's been almost a smash over every time other than a couple of weeks ago when they were playing the Falcons. So I'm liking this one. I don't know about the alternative one. you probably could have just, you know, just on the overs on the regular lines. But I see that you're trying to dig yourself out of the hole, so you're going big. Well, you know, my money's not scared because, you know, the scared money, it's never going to make me any money. So we're sending it. We're going in.

I believe in it. And yeah, we're making it happen. And like Joe said earlier, maybe we get one of those, you know, tough rookie outings from Jane Daniels. And all of a sudden this game is a little bit tighter than, you know, one might expect. And I like what I got here. I think, Trey, you are, you really should run for office because you have a sharp tongue when it comes to these, when it comes to these bets. None of them have hit yet, by the way, but you at least have a sharp tongue when it comes to the bets. I'm glad your lights are back on, my friend. And thank you to Tom Browley, who's been very generous to all of us. He was, he stepped in for me on the morning show when my lights were out. He personally pays for Trey's lights to come back on. Now it looks like mine are out. It's getting so dark here in central Pennsylvania.

Yeah, yours are dimming. Part on the lights whenever we record this podcast. Yeah, we're getting close to fall behind here, unfortunately, which is always one of my least favorite times of year, because by the time the game day shows over on Sundays, it's dark and depressing. But at least we still have football. Remember, guys, this is the best bet show on the Fantasy Points Network, Fantasy Points, YouTube, YouTube 25 gets you NFL premium. up at fantasy points.com. And I hope you just get entertained because as we've let you know a million times and my 500 record proves it, we're not wise. We're just guys.