Fantasy Football Daily - Thursday Night Who Dey Super Bet + Good Friend Trey's FIRST WIN | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share the...ir top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:10 Week 10 best bet show here at Fantasy Points and Fantasy Points YouTube and Fantasy Points Now. My name is Joe Dolan. Tom Broly's with me right now. That's Butterscotch over my left shoulder. And if you see over my right shoulder, which way do I got to turn here? There we go. That's crimpet back there in the hallway. My co-hosts here today, we're going to be talking some best bets for the 2024 NFL season. Week number 10, T-Bro. I think last week, we hit our first Did we hit our super bet last week? Yes, Devin A-chan. A-chan over the receiving yards, the 33 and a half receiving yards.
Starting point is 00:00:48 We have a couple super best bets. And so what our super best bets are, if you haven't been listening to the show, is when Tom and I come up with a prop or a bet we like, and independent of each other. We don't talk to each other beforehand, and we each come up with the same one that we like. We actually have two of them this week. Tom, I went two and one last week.
Starting point is 00:01:06 I'm above 500 for the season. There we go. I had an awful beat in the Eagles Jaguars game. Nick Siriani leaving a million points on the field and the worst fumble call of all time going against the Eagles. And that was returned for a touchdown. And we got some new. And they still almost cover. They missed the field goal when they had a chance to go up by 8 and that would have given you the cover.
Starting point is 00:01:31 I have to tell you another story about that game. And I'll get to it after we acknowledge that we got some big news. Yes. The world's worst gambler. Good friend Trey is off the Schneide. He did it. The ball has gone through the hoop. He needed 67 minutes on Monday night football to get it done, but he got it done. The ball has gone through the hoop for Good Friend Trey, and we'll welcome him in later on in the program. Tom, you know, the thing about Nick Siriani and I'm just going to post-mortem that bet. was my only best get that loss last week,
Starting point is 00:02:09 so let's post more to admit. You deserve it. That was a bad one. And a half, okay? But additionally, I had seven zero in my Eagles squares pool. I'm in a squares pool
Starting point is 00:02:23 for all the Eagles games. So I hit the first quarter for $100. Half time is worth $300. The Eagles are up 16-0. Yes. 16 points is a two-score game. 17 points is a three score game. 18 points is also a three score game.
Starting point is 00:02:44 There is a fundamentally massive difference between 16 and 17 point leads in football and 17 and 18 point leads. There is a much bigger gulf between a 17 and a 16 point lead. So Nick, siriani lines up to go for two. What the hell are you doing, Nick? What the hell are you doing? I'm sitting there. And they're, oh, they just try to draw them off sides. Okay, whatever.
Starting point is 00:03:05 go, they kick the extra point. The Jaguars are off sides on the extra point. I think extra point. And then Siriani takes the point off the board and then decides to go for two. You know, of the calls that Siriani made in that game, that was really the only one where I'm like, this is egregiously dumb. Because after he missed that one, I get chasing the point and all that stuff. But it's been like Murphy's Law for Siriani.
Starting point is 00:03:29 You're going to call it Nick's Law, right? if Nick Siriani has like a 50-50 decision, he picks maybe the right one, but it goes horrifically wrong. Yeah, he's got to be batting like, you know, a hundred right now on those 50-50 calls. He has been awful. And all the, yeah, all the stuff at the end of the game,
Starting point is 00:03:51 the missed field goal, multiple chances to, that game was so done whenever they got up 16-0 there and just kicked the extra point. And then, you know, Siriani's constant fight with himself obfuscates the worst fumble call I have ever seen. And my reaction to that was, and we'll get off of this, I'm just lamenting a bad beat. Go ahead, go ahead. The worst part of that was, say Seqaun Barclay, instead of fumbling when he hit the ground, got up and ran for a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:04:23 Yeah, they would have called him down. They would have called him down, right? And if it wasn't a lopsided game at the time, they probably would have called him down. Yeah, the NFL, I think they were turning the knobs a little bit on that one. They're like, eh, it's close enough. We'll say it's a, it's a touchdown on the field. I, I, that was, that was a brutal beat for you, Joe. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:04:42 I had a couple of those myself. I kick some ass again on my player props. We went 10 and 2 on Sunday. Lost to Josh Downs when I gave it out at 60 and a half. Of course, it gets to 60. Lose it by a half a yard. And my other bet that I lost on Sunday was, AJ Brown, of course,
Starting point is 00:05:02 it looked like he was going to probably go over that one as well, jammed his knee, ended up missing the second half. Looks like he's even going to play this. It looks like he's going to play this week. Yeah, it looked like he was going to play. He came out of the, out of the locker room at halftime, looking like he was ready to play.
Starting point is 00:05:18 So another great week for the player props up to a 63% right now, up over 22 units so far. So, yeah, it's, It's going really well. I hope anybody that's listening to the podcast is joining in on a little bit of the fun here. I've been giving out some of the free plays. And obviously, if you're a subscriber, you get the rest of those plays. So the fantasy points data is really crushing out.
Starting point is 00:05:45 I know John Hansen. Alex had a couple close calls. Our guy, Justin Barnes, as well, with the IDP. I think he had a down week last week. So I'm sure he's going to come roaring back this week. Anytime Justin has a little bit of a down week, usually bounces back in a big way. So get in on the fun on the premium side there.
Starting point is 00:06:04 And hopefully we give out a couple of winners here on our super bets. Yeah, all right. So T-Bro, we're going to talk Thursday night football right away. And we actually, this is this our first Thursday night super best bet of the year? You and I both are going to take the six and a half points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night football tonight. I don't know if that number has changed at all. but I doubt it's going to get the seven.
Starting point is 00:06:29 If it does, we're going to get some serious buyback. But I love the six and a half with the Bengals. And the point being, I thought Joe Burrell was outrageous last week. Obviously, Mike Kosicki won me a lot of money in DFS, not as much as Jake Tribby did. But Jake Tribby took down 5K in DFS. But Mike Gisickey was a great play. And here's the deal for the Baltimore Ravens,
Starting point is 00:06:51 who apparently are counting on Tredavius White to be their savior in the second. I can't give up a whole lot for him, but he's been awful with the Rams this year. The Ravens give up the fourth most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, including the second most to quarterbacks as passers. They give up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers schedule adjusted through the year on the season. This has been a major pass funnel defense. And look, I know the Bengals have been up and down to say the least, But even without T. Higgins, I like Joe Burrow catching such a big number against a team in Baltimore that has given up a lot of points through the air and has blown some covers late in the fourth quarter of games. Obviously, they didn't do that last week against Denver. I think Cincinnati's a much bigger challenge for the Ravens.
Starting point is 00:07:43 Yeah, they've kind of struggled at least Lamar Jackson here over the last three or four years in this point range here when they're a little bit more than a field goal and not quite double-digit favorites. So, yeah, this could be another spot here. The back door could be open if it's a, you know, 10-point game or something late in the game. We've seen their defense give up plenty of big leads. Dallas Cowboys comes to mind earlier this year. So I think, and we saw this game earlier this year, Cincinnati back and forth the entire way, wild one,
Starting point is 00:08:17 overtime affair. The Ravens ended up winning that one. So I think we're going to see another game here where the Bengals can keep it close. I am, the only thing I'm a little bit worried about is the T. Higgins factor. He's going to miss this game again. He did not practice all week and looking like a third straight game where he's going to miss. He's doubtful official.
Starting point is 00:08:37 Yeah, he's doubtful. But he hasn't practiced and he hasn't played in a couple weeks. So that's basically a slam dunk that he's not going to play in this one. So that's why we've seen the Mike Kosicki props. That was one of the props I hit last week. his prop was at like 30 and a half or 31 and a half last week. I thought I was going to go back to the well here. That Kassiki prop has been smashing when T. Higgins is out,
Starting point is 00:09:03 but they've raised it basically 20 yards since last week. He is up to like 52 and a half now. So I'm going to stay away from that one. But I did have a Jamar Chase one. I am a little bit worried here. His yardage numbers haven't been that great when T. Higgins is out of the lineup, but he smashed against the Ravens earlier this year, 193 yards. I think this is a big spot, obviously.
Starting point is 00:09:30 They're going to throw the kitchen sink at this game. Honestly, they're kind of back in the AFC North race, too. If they end up winning this game, the Steelers have two matchups with the Bengals later in the year. They could even the series with the Ravens at one and one. So Bengals are still kind of alive in this AFC North. I think Jamar Chase is going to be heavily featured in this game. And as you said, their secondary is extremely weak so far this year.
Starting point is 00:09:59 So I'm going to Jamar Chase for a player prop here, 78.5, I believe is the number I gave out at. It's been bet up a little bit to 79.5. But you might want to get on that now. I can see that one drifting up a little bit to Jamar. Once the public gets in a, you know, they like to bet those star players. So I could see this one getting up to the mid-80s. later in the day on Thursday. So if you're listening to this a little earlier in the day,
Starting point is 00:10:25 make sure you get that player prop bet in and save yourself a couple of yards. We're going to pay some bills. We're going to be right back and we're going to talk about the rest of the week 10 Sunday and perhaps Monday slate of games. Feeling festive. Catch classic holiday favorites like Home Alone,
Starting point is 00:10:43 the Santa Claus and Die Hard, along with holiday episodes from Family Guy, Abbott Elementary, and more with Hulu on Disney Plus. From festive Disney Flicks, to binge-worthy Hulu originals. Hulu on Disney Plus is your home for the holidays. Celebrate the season with Hulu, available on Disney Plus in Canada. Welcome back.
Starting point is 00:11:06 You might have heard Tom Broly mentioned that he gave out a couple plays on Discord, which is where he always gives out his best bets before they even go in an article before they come out in this podcast so you could get the best of the numbers that we discuss. You can get an NFL premium subscription at FantasyPoint.com already 50% off for an extra 25% off using code YouTube 25. You will be glad you did get in that betting discord. All right, Tom, you and I have our second super best bet. We did not collaborate on this, but I'm going against a typical bet on spot here.
Starting point is 00:11:41 And I want your further analysis here. Okay. Because you're probably approaching it from the same direction I am. I am laying three points with the Falcons on the road in New Orleans. New coach bounce is typically a bet on. spot. Here is the issue. New Orleans effing sucks. They are terrible. Derek Carves getting chirped at by Michael Thomas on Twitter. He put Chrysalabe in the hospital. They traded away Marshawn Latimore. This team is a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if they just freaking pack it
Starting point is 00:12:16 in for the rest of the year. Atlanta's playing pretty well overall, Tom. That's all the analysis I have for you here. You might have something a little bit more insightful to say. But I think I got the right side of this number. I've seen some three and a halfs out there. I think New Orleans is abominable. I'm laying the three with the Falcons on the road. Yeah, it is mostly three and a half now. So this is one.
Starting point is 00:12:38 Maybe you just wait a little bit later in the week. Maybe that money comes in for the new coach bounce. Yeah, the new coach money later in the weekend. And if not, you probably can still get a three and a half or four later in the weekend. So this is one I'd wait on a little bit. But you kind of laid it out there. I mean, Derek Carr is getting chirped at. But yeah, now he has nobody to throw to.
Starting point is 00:13:01 Cedric Wilson is also on the injury report. He might miss. Of course, Rashid Shaheed is already done for the season. So it's going to be Mason Tipton, who's already, you know, just a jag anyway and a bunch of other jags behind them. So this is a tough spot here for a Saints team that's really reeling. losing against the worst team in the NFL. I had the Carolina Panthers power rated like three points below every other team in the NFL going into last weekend.
Starting point is 00:13:34 So just an unacceptable loss for the Saints, even though it was on the road. And this is a team that's really reeling right now. And you laid it out there. Marshawn Latimore is also gone. He missed last week anyway with the hamstring injury. But this is a tough spot here. They're one and six against the spread in their last seven games. We'll see if I'm hoping Drake London plays looking like he's going to be a toss-up later in the weekend.
Starting point is 00:14:04 Grady Jarrett's another one I'd like to be in the lineup. So monitor those injuries. Maybe that could have some effect on the line. But I like the Falcons here. I know it's a little bit of a square spot, but I just can't put any money on these Saints here. I wish I was I was thinking about betting the Carolina Panthers last weekend because that was just way too many points for I have the Saints rated as a power a bottom five team right now so they're they're pretty close to the bottom league at this point and the Falcons are a team that's
Starting point is 00:14:38 slowly putting together they're starting to surge a little bit so uh they're they're on the come up here so we're going to lay the points with the Falcons not the easiest spot against the Saints but this could also be a spot where that home crowd, it could turn against the Saints pretty quickly if they get off to a slow start and maybe that home field advantage that they usually enjoy. One of the few spots that actually is a home field advantage, it could turn against them in this game.
Starting point is 00:15:06 Tom, do you have anything else in terms of a point spread or a total or should we get to our best bet props of the week? You know what? Let me give the prop. I have a prop in that game. Oh, please do. Alvin Kamara, I have Alvin Kamara over his receipts. We haven't projected for 51 to 52 receiving yards in that game. The prop has come out higher than his previous props earlier this season at 36.5.
Starting point is 00:15:30 But I'm just looking at all these injuries at wide receiver, anticipating that they're going to probably scheme him up different touches and different screen passes, maybe even line him out wide. Who knows? I mean, they're so thin at wide receiver. Maybe they'll have him playing the slot a little bit and do some different things with him. So I think he's going to be involved in the game as a receiver. We've seen the Falcons give up some passing game production as well.
Starting point is 00:15:53 So looking at Alvin Kamara to go over his receiving yards at 36 and a half yards. Yeah, he's, Alvin Kamara has been at 40 receiving yards or more in six out of his last eight games. So had 42 receiving yards in this matchup as well back in week four. So I think everything's kind of lining up here. You saw Rico Dowdell, Rashad White, and Bucky. Irving the last two games they have combined for 110 receiving yards out of the backfield against the falcons so uh bigger number here for a running back but uh we're laying it over 36 and half receiving yards for alvin kamara uh tom i have a couple of props here that i like including
Starting point is 00:16:34 one plus money prop but uh i want to start with one of the more straight up ones i'm going to go with aaron jones who's been like an rb one for fantasy his his line is that 66 and a half uh rushing yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Aaron Jones, in his career, this is great research from Jake Tribby from our DFS early look article, which is free to read at FantasyPoints.com. In wins, Aaron Jones's rushing yards over the last three seasons, it sits at 79.1 in victories, up from 47.7 in losses, and they basically have a two-thirds implied win probability because of the spread in this game.
Starting point is 00:17:13 His workload has been outrageous. He led all running backs in Snapshare in week eight, and he was fifth in expected fantasy points in week nine. Now, I took the rushing yards prop, but that's because of his success running the ball in wins over the last three seasons, and the Jaguars just got crucified by Seekwon Barkley. So I'm going to go with Aaron Jones over the 66.5. Yeah, you know, Sequin Barclay, yeah, he crushed Josh Jacobs a couple of weeks as well.
Starting point is 00:17:47 Two weeks ago, he had a big game against them as in that up at Lambo field there. So no, no complaints there. I guess the one thing, Cam Acres getting worked in a little bit more, but I'm not too concerned about that. I still think Aaron Jones is controlling the work in this backfield. So, you know, 12th most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. The Jaguars are giving up. So this is looking like. It's lined it up pretty well.
Starting point is 00:18:13 And you have to wonder, you know, this Jacksonville team, how much juice they have left here. If they fall behind again, you know, they've been a team that's showing some signs of quit here. So, yeah, I like this one. I've been on Aaron Jones props this year. I'll let you handle this one. I think I've won one of them, but I've missed two of them. So I am not the Aaron Jones whisperer this year.
Starting point is 00:18:39 I'm hoping that you have the better luck with Aaron Jones. this year. I'm all right. So I'm, I'll, I'll try to be that guy. I'll try to be the opposite side here, Tom. I also have a plus money prop that I want to give out. Where are you looking at? One of the past heaviest teams in the NFL since week seven is the Los Angeles Chargers. What? Justin Herbert averaging over 300 passing yards per game over that stretch. And then, And last week against Cleveland, he was sacked six times in the first half and still through for 250 and two touchdowns. Still. So I have a plus money prop on Justin Herbert in this matchup against Tennessee, which has been, by the way, outside of a game I think against Malik Willis has been like the biggest pass funnel defense in the entire NFL.
Starting point is 00:19:37 They just lost Quandre Diggs for the season. give me Justin Herbert over one and a half passing touchdowns. He did it in the first half against Cleveland last week. This is another pass funnel defense. Give me Justin Herbert over the touchdown passes. He is absolutely cooking right now. And this is plus money, plus 120. So obviously there's a little bit of a little bit of juice that the book is taking on here.
Starting point is 00:20:01 So I like Justin Herbert over the one and a half passing touchdowns. Yeah, pass rate over expectation of 5.8% over the last. three weeks, which ranks fifth, they were at negative 7.2% in the first six weeks of the season. So they've completely changed their stripes here coming out of their buy. Yeah, and you look at the Tennessee side, they gave up multiple touchdown passes in three straight games before going against Drake May and that anemic Patriots receiving core last week. So yeah, it's kind of lining up here. I'm with you. I was looking actually, I was also looking at the Herbert passing yards, is around 222 and a half.
Starting point is 00:20:42 We have them projected up over 250 yards. So that was, I left that one on the cutting room floor here for the, for the time being, maybe I'll double back to that later in the weekend. But I'm just, I'm just worried about them getting up multiple scores and leaning into the run. But if they're going to get up multiple scores, maybe they're doing it through the air with multiple touchdown passes. That's what happened last week against Cleveland, you know. So, yeah, I liked, I looked at the passing yards as well, but that was.
Starting point is 00:21:09 was that was the one that sit out to me, especially because of the plus juice there. I know obviously I'm at the risk of J.K. Dobbins busting off a run, but such is the life of an NFL better. Tom, do you have anything else from the Sunday slate or is it time to welcome in our pal? I got another player too here. I'll give out the Sunday morning game. If anybody is willing to get up at 9.30 a.m. to watch the New York Giants and the Carolina Panthers. You might want to just sleep in. Or you can just check this box score after the fact, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:45 whenever you're getting ready to watch the 1 PM games. But this is a prop. I gave this out on the site last week in our Discord. I think Graham also jumped in on this prop as well. It was a little super play in our Discord here with Tyrone Tracy. We're going back there this week. The line has opened up at 65 and a half rushing yards over at Fandall. Jumping on this one, the Giants have gone really.
Starting point is 00:22:14 I mean, that game last week, they ran the ball so many times, especially early in the game against the commanders. I could see a similar type of strategy here against this Carolina Panthers, one funnel defense. Tracy has gotten to 66 yards or more in three of his last five games, and he's been at 16 plus carries in four out of his last five. We didn't know if he was going to play last week. and he ended up playing.
Starting point is 00:22:40 And he had a huge workload off the concussion on Monday night football in week eight. So good sign there. Shouldn't be limited at all. And we look at this Panthers run defense, giving up the fifth most yards before contact per attempt from our fantasy points data at 2.36 yards. And they're giving up the most rushing yards per game to running backs at 132.9. And if we look at individual games here for running backs going against the Panthers,
Starting point is 00:23:09 Eight different backs have hit 71 plus yards, rushing yards against the Panthers through nine games. So this has been a number that plenty of backs have been able to hit 65 and a half. I would not wait around on this one. We hit the Alvin Kamaro rushing yards prop last week on the podcast. We gave it out at 62 and a half. That was the initial line that came out. I think it got up to the high 60s. No sweat on that one.
Starting point is 00:23:35 I think Kamara had almost 30 rushing attempts in that game and easily clear. that number but now we're going back with tyrone tracy and we're going back against the carolina panthers run defense uh for this profit 65 and a half rushing yards all right tom we delayed his return just a little bit but good friend tray is in the win column we got one this past week let's we're going to talk to him about it because i'm sure with the newfound confidence he is doing something absolutely disgusting for this week so i am looking forward to talking to him we'll uh bring him back on after this. You might know him as the world's worst gambler. You might know him as good friend Trey. You might know him by his formal name, Tracen Q. Camberling. But now on this program,
Starting point is 00:24:26 we can officially know him as a winner. He did it. Tray Camberling has hit one of his bets. Good friend, Trey, welcome to the show. And with your fat pockets, uh, I hope you, you now have the confidence that you need to cook up a real stinker for the people. Well, speaking of the people, there's two groups of people that I'd like to address here. The first being the group of people who maybe insinuated that I was not going to get a win this week. You know, they were all around. They were in the discord. They were on social.
Starting point is 00:25:03 They were saying, what is he going to do if he doesn't get a win this week? do I need to say the rest? I guess we'll never know. The second group of people I would like to address is the people who think that I'm going to come on here and celebrate and go crazy and throw confetti and play music. I want to give them a little quote from Italian striker Super Mario Balotelli. He likes to say, does the post band celebrate?
Starting point is 00:25:38 When he delivers a letter? No, that's his job. That's what he's supposed to do. So when I get these wins, that's what I'm supposed to do. That's how I treat it. And I'm here today to cook up a parlay to build on this little momentum that we picked up from my nice win last week. Why weren't you doing your job the first eight weeks of the season then? Well, Mr. Postman.
Starting point is 00:26:04 I was on sick leave. Oh, okay. So how much were you sweating that Monday night game? Of course, the parley, two favorite, two massive favorites, Baltimore Ravens in the Kansas City Chiefs. The number out there last week was they were 13 and 1 straight up going into that Monday night game. And then all of a sudden, the guy you were slandering on the podcast last week was carving up that Chief's defense late in the game in the rain, ties
Starting point is 00:26:36 They got within one point I think everybody but Todd Bowles expected them to go for the two point conversion Did you have a call in for Todd Bowles Maybe he was following the parlay with you?
Starting point is 00:26:48 I don't know No, and you know what I'm not going to sit here And blame Todd Bulls You know who I'm going to blame? I'm going to blame the quarterback of the offense That had two drives in the fourth quarter
Starting point is 00:26:58 And they both went three and out That's who I'm going to blame I'm going to blame Baker Mayfield man, they had 20 looks at winning this game. Baker, shit the bed. Point Blake, keep him, keep him. I don't want him. You keep all the Baker Mayfield stock.
Starting point is 00:27:15 I'm out. Thank you, Baker, for two complete garbage drives that kept this with impossibility for me to, you know, capture my win this week. So thank you very much, Baker Mayfield. Well, good friend, Trey. I got to talk to you now about, well, the rest of the,
Starting point is 00:27:32 the rest of your job here on this program, which is cooking up disgusting bets. You had a very, very short odds parlay. As a matter of fact, it's minus odds. Yeah, yeah. I was going to say, but you just rolled the money from that winnings last week into this bet or you, you know, you're saving, you're saving, you're saving, a account or what are you doing with that winning? Yeah, that went, that went straight straight to the Roth IRA, 4.0. Yeah. You know, we're, you know, preparing for the future here. So, but this week. Appreciate it. Trust me, the odds are a little juicier this week.
Starting point is 00:28:04 So what are we doing? All right. So I'm going to go Thursday night because when you've got momentum, right, you want to keep it going. It's like that you get an interception on defense. First play, you come out, you throw it to the end zone. That's what I'm doing here. So I want to get it going on Thursday night. Okay.
Starting point is 00:28:20 This is going to be a five-leg parlay. And I had some real extreme, extreme version of this. And I dialed it back a little bit. I'm saying, listen, we're locked in now. We got to be crossing our. our T's dot in our eyes. So here we go. I'm going to start with Derek Henry anytime touchdown on Thursday night football. He's in the Christian McCaffrey territory right now. He scores every week. It's going to happen. Your hope is in this game. He gets it in the first quarter. And then after him,
Starting point is 00:28:48 we're going to all Bengals. Let's start with Joe Burrow to have 275 or more passing yards. Okay. I'm predicting here, and I know you guys are on the Bengals, I'm predicting here that the Ravens will get up early. Hopefully it's at 10 points, a 14 points, and one of those scores, it's Derek Henry touchdown. All of a sudden, the Bengals are down. They got to throw. So that is the basis for the rest of the legs of this parlay.
Starting point is 00:29:17 I mean, if you guys can dive in on that, if you want to have any comments on the first two legs or if you want to hear the whole deal. Yeah, I mean, the Henry one, it's like a lock like your bets last. week. I mean, he's scored a touchdown in every game. I mean, what are the odds on that? He's got to be like, almost like minus 250 to score a touchdown in this game. So it's hot. It's yeah, it's two, two, two, five or three hundred. It's yeah. No, no issues there. And I like
Starting point is 00:29:41 that burrow one. I think they're going to be throwing the ball a lot. I don't think they're going to be, uh, trying to run the ball in this raven's defense. So you got me on these first two legs. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm in. And so if, if we're feeling good about that, where do we go logically from there. So I'm hoping this rising burrow tide, okay, is going to lift all these boats, these other three legs here. So we got Mike Gaseki, okay?
Starting point is 00:30:06 40 or more receiving yards. With T. Higgins out, I think that's a reasonable number. Like you said, I didn't love his line this week. So I went down a little bit. Took it down a peg. Got it over to 40. Showing some restraint. Yeah, you know, I had to. And then I've got
Starting point is 00:30:22 two, 25-yard receipts. receivers in Chase Brown running back for the Bengals and Andre Yoshovas. I know, you know, we talked a little bit about it. You're a little scared of that one. But like I always say, the best ability is availability. My guys out there, he's not in the casino. He's not at the spot on the field. So this is my play. Quickly, I'll give you the payout here. So that's going to be plus 1,000. However, I did have a boost. So I've got plus 1,500. on this parlay one unit be about 400 bucks for me if this hits and and then we get a wind street going all right our yoshy bachu yeah that's the one that's a little scary for me i like the
Starting point is 00:31:06 kaseki leg uh you're right i don't like his i do like his prop but it's been bet way too high it's up into the low 50s at this point uh i was really strongly considering the chase brown one uh we haven't projected for like 30 so i did kind of like that one no zach moss cleoile Herbert probably is going to have a minimal role in this game. But the Yoshavos, man, he's just out there running wind sprints right now. Feeling pretty confident about that one? Or is that just one you're like one to get the odds up? So you got to get a leg that's a little more juicy. I like a guy who runs wind sprints for the 25 yards because I think, you know, it's possible he gets it on one play. I think that's the type of guy that you might want to go to on a 25, you know,
Starting point is 00:31:51 as opposed to maybe like a Wondale Robinson where they could catch seven passes and be under the 25 yards. So yeah, I just when I see that number 25, my eyes light up, especially when it's plus odds at those 25. Maybe that's a fish way to look at it. But I just, it's hard to. And like I said, this could be a first quarter. He catches one pass and all of a sudden he's there. Chase Brown, dink and dunk his way there in the first half. A two minute drill, Chase Brown could get there in a two minute drill.
Starting point is 00:32:19 So really liking it. And you know, like I said, now that I got this momentum, I'm seeing things a little more clearly. Now that the ball went through the hoop, I'm going to back up a little bit. I'm going to throw up a half quarter. And I think it's going to go in.
Starting point is 00:32:34 If this parlay hits, Tray, that's going to indicate a good shot of a backdoor cover for me and Tom. So I kind of like that, the correlation there, T, bro. Yeah, and I also got to ask you if it does hit. I mean, maybe I shouldn't even put if. When it does, when it hits. Are you going to put that money into your Roth R.A.? Are you going to join Jermaine Burton at the casino and press your luck a little bit?
Starting point is 00:32:58 You know, little column A, a little column B, you know? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, maybe I'll just, if I get the nice win, I'll fly down to Magic City and get some wings and just have myself a fantastic night. Wing sounds really good right about now. As a matter of fact, maybe I'll go order some. I hope everybody enjoys the Thursday night game following the best. bets along with us. Remember, we're not wise. We're just a bunch of guys. But we were winners last
Starting point is 00:33:24 week, and that's all that matters. That's good friend, Trey. That's Tom Broly. I'm Joe Dolan. Thanks, everybody. Enjoy the Thursday night game. We'll talk to you next week.

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