Fantasy Football Daily - Tiering Down In Startups - Dynasty Points: Market Report

Episode Date: January 27, 2024

Dynasty Points Market Report dives into a listener startup. And how to apply the tier-down and nesting doll draft theories to your drafts. There are some players you want to draft and some to avoid. What is happening with the mid-tier of QBs? Should you panic and draft RBs? --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Get you and your crew to the big shows with Go Transit. Go connects to all the main concert venues like TD Coliseum in Hamilton and Scotia Bank Arena in Toronto. And Go makes it affordable with special e-ticket fares. A one-day weekend pass offers unlimited travel across the network on any weekend day or holiday for just $10. And a weekday group pass offers the same weekday travel flexibility from $30 for two people and up to $60 for five. Buy yours at gotransit.com slash tickets. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle,

from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening. Whenever you're listening to this, this is the Dynasty Points Market Report, first official episode coming in to everyone. We were going to push this off for a little bit longer, wait for Tom Lee to get to rejoin. But you know what? There's been so much talk about startups and ADP

and where to tear and how to tear out. And we talk about it a lot in the Fancy Points Discord. And maybe to some of you that's this is new information or you might be newer to Dynasty, this is stuff we've covered before with the Fulteil Dynasty podcast. but we're going to cover it again today, at least a little bit, just to get some ADP content out there for all of you degenerates that are drafting right now. Again, the main Dynasty Point show is not back until towards the end of February.

And then so Market Report will be there in its stead moving forward every week. Of course, on this pod you have myself. I am Thomas Tipple. I am hosting this here event. Joining me tonight on this program is Lucas Gilbert. You know him from the Dynasty Points and the Full Tilt Debbie Show. And of course, a new host in here to Dynasty Points is Andy Buckler. You can find him Andy underscore Buckler.

This team is an interesting team of people to be doing this podcast because we all think differently. And that is what is important. It is very hard to create content that is actionable when everyone nods along and doesn't have a disagreement. On this podcast, I can firmly say that Lucas and I definitely don't agree because I win championships and he likes rebuilding. How Andy plays his leagues, we're going to find out here on this program, and we're going to find how that correlates to the content. It's great stuff. I'm looking forward to it. We have a lot to kick off to early.

We have a few questions that we were outright asked here, guys, if we can get into. So I think the best thing we can do is just peel off the Band-Aid, dive right in. Look, Andy Lucas, we're not a new show. We are not a start and sit show. We are not You know There's There's

$672,421 Other podcast articles Tweets where you can just get a bulk of information from That's not what we're going to be here for We're here for market watch Values Who's moving in ADP Who's not?

Who's climbing? Who can we target? Who can we avoid? Who can we tear down to? That's what I want to start with And Andy I'm going to start with you Right here. tiering down is my personal favorite method for doing a startup draft we are going to do start

draft draft we actually have a startup draft that draft board that is going on live right now that has been given to us via fantasy points discord user and subscriber for an example how do you approach it even to begin with i think is what i want to open with yeah so i think I think it's a little tough because a lot of startups I'm in, it's kind of hard to trade down because everyone wants to trade down. So a lot of times, honestly, like I do sit at my pick a lot of times, like whether that's like not necessarily like there might not be the best strategy. But I'm just not trying to pay that price. Like, because sometimes it's honestly cheaper to move up. But with moving into tiers, I think probably the most would be like around that fifth round of those receivers.

I think that's really where you should be doing that. You should be moving from like the fifth to the eighth and getting a 20. I think that's really where you should be doing it because you're off of the like, by the time you're in the fifth round, you're off the players that are worth two, three, first at that point, they're gone. They're off the board. And when you get into the fifth round of receivers and you're at like the Drake London, Michael Pittman or she races, they're all the same player.

So move back and get, you know, get you a little asset. That's where I do it mostly. But like I said, a lot of times I'm just not moving back because it's sometimes it's just not really worth it all the time for me personally. I understand that. I still am just constantly trying. Lucas, when you have the situation where everyone is trying to trade back, how do you stand out in this?

Is it moving fewer picks back? Is it being okay taking a bigger quote unquote value loss and moving a full round back? How do you approach a situation like that? I mean, typically whenever I'm in drafts, it's the folks who are wanting to move that round plus up to go and get people in like multiple players in tier one of that position. They're trying to go out, get an advantage that no one else in the league's going to have. And you don't necessarily have to do that for all of your teams. You don't need, you know, multiple tier one receivers right off the bat, multiple tier one running backs, especially right off

the bat. So you have to be comfortable also just taking those little moves, the one to two picks, three to four picks, because while you not, while you might not be gaining as much in return, you're still able to move down, stay within a similar tier originally, up until the point that you get out of that tier, you have a nice long range of assets. And I think that that's really nice, especially for some of the earlier round picks whenever you're moving from like your tier two or tier three players down. But it also presents a very fun buying opportunity as well. If you're close to the end of a tier and you're seeing multiple people like trying to do this sort of strategy, there's a very good way to come out and really like pick up some extra value that others are laying off the board. Yeah, I'm just okay skipping all rounds if it means I am getting some appropriate value in return. And let me explain that.

if you're looking at let's say this draft this draft board and i'm looking at this the first round is not that far off from the second round to me outside of the quarterbacks and then of course obviously like say jefferson and lamb i am okay trading back from one seven one eight one nine one ten and moving back to two ten if i'm pulling a fifth because that's generally the move If you're moving a full round back, you take an excess pick, say, in the fifth, the fourth round, that's obviously an ideal scenario, right? I move one and nine, and I get back late, two, and five. I'll smash that every time.

Because I am moving away from the end of a lot of middling tiers. Say in this draft, you're moving away from Najee, Montgomery, Robinson, Levice, Deontay, Stafford, Kirk, and you're getting to move, whether it's six or five, because some people might think that five is too expensive. But if you're telling me, I can take a slight value hit from Justin Herbert to Bejohn, which for the most part, in a league outside of a startup,

that's almost a one-for-one at this point in terms of value. So if you're looking at it from a outside of a draft into an established league type value, if you're telling me that I can get Beijon, and if we go up here into the fifth, this being a tight end premium, if you're telling me I can get Bejohn and Kyle Pitts for Herbert and Rocheon Johnson,

then, yeah, I'm gonna do that. I'm gonna do that very quickly. Because you can make up that value later, because again, you'd end up having two second round picks. So if you're, if you're ending up with Dak or Kyler, who's still going entirely Tudelow, which we called on Dynasty Points, mind you.

I definitely called that, still going in the third round, assonine behavior. But if you're telling me you can walk out, moving down from Herbert, pick up Bijan, still lock in Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love,

and then come back around to the third and then get to double tap in the fifth as well and pull out a Rishi Rice and Michael and Kyle Pitts. again at the expense of having Justin Herbert and Rochon Johnson, that's to me a move to make. It just might sound a little difficult to get your head around. I'm losing out on that first round pick. Why would I want to?

Because at the end of the day, when it's league time, you're still gaining a competitive advantage. Especially if you can start working in packages for future second round picks into every single one of these trade downs. every single one of these trade downs you should be asking for a future second because they're going to be easier to attain in a startup draft than any other time of the year

because most people aren't like I would be asking for 26 seconds in every trade I do because it's the third too. Yeah, it's the cheapest time to get them and they're the most common trade fodder. You will send more trades out

trying to get Keenan Allen for two seconds someone like me you offer two seconds for everybody and hope something lands but right if you're actually contending or competing or you keep those seconds and now you're stocking up even more ammunition more opportunities so if you're trading down I would say don't be afraid to trade out of these first and second rounds and net those extra

third fourth fifth and six picks because though Andy said you're okay trading out of 6 to 8, 6 to 9, I agree. In terms of stockpiling opportunity at realistic minimal cost, yeah, give me those 3, 4, 5, 6 as an extra because your dynasty team is just going to be storing value. And though having two elite quarterbacks, so I'm saying if I trade out a 107, but what if this guy had 103 and now he gets to walk out with C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert. that's great for him that's phenomenal but in a lot of those weeks

your Matthew Stafford cars and other quarterbacks you can get later in the draft they're going to definitely make up a lot of that production and then you're going to make up most of the rest of the production

with how much better the rest of your roster is at the end and it gives you again more trade ammunition I think that this year presents a real opportunity for dynasty managers in startups to not even pick in the first two rounds with the way that quarterbacks in that second to third tier are falling especially if you are including your rookie picks and your startup this is a great opportunity to get the Brock parties of the world the Jordan loves of the world I know I know that one hurts a little bit more but

there are really good quarterbacks in the third round that you can trade two rounds out of of really get some really nice picks in four, fifth, six rounds. And you're going to have a absolutely just deep starting roster right off the bat that no one else is really going to be able to compete with you with. Just it's free value. It's stuff that we don't normally get to see because you're seeing, I don't know, 15, 16 corebacks go off the board before it turns into round three. This is a very unique year just because that tier has got.

gotten bigger from the elite. There's a lot more who moved up tiers, not moving down. And I think it's time to take advantage of it. So, yeah, I mostly agree with what you just said. But I also think that it's a very bad time to draft round, early round three Brock Purdy. There's some landmines in there. Like, you got to avoid the Tuas and them taboo is not third right now.

Like, I loved. And we talked on the, on dynasty points, Jacob and I, how I said, Brock Purdy, deserves to go with the 2-1 but he'll never get there it doesn't matter how good Brock Purdy does

he'll never get to the 2-1 unfortunately Brock Purdy is in purgatory at 3-4 3-3-3-2-3-1 4th round Brock Purdy like that a lot 4th round QB1 in Brock Purdy

I like that a lot a lot a lot but give me AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson Trey McBride in a tight-end premium over over Brock Purdy for sure especially again when you have other quarterbacks down down not other quarterbacks that are one is my QB one but if you are moving out of rounds one and two and you're okay with Purdy you

would better be collecting an extra second round pick in the startup draft a future first round pick and like a sixth and seventh to be able to do that because that is that is a big jump in a big long You better be comfortable doing that. Yeah. I also want to point out that the second round this year for running backs is insane. Yeah, it's good. It's absolutely goaded.

Not what I want to be doing, obvious reasons. I don't want to draft running backs. If I can avoid it, I will. However, what this is doing, running backs are moving up boards right now, which is kind of the opposite from my pass. So if we go, we're looking all the way up into the fourth round. We're looking at Hall McCaffrey, Bijon Gibbs,

Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, E.T.N., Kiron, and A. Chan, all being drafted in the first four rounds. That is more running backs than I ever expect to be drafted at that point. What that is doing is as long, oh my God, as well as, Watson going at the 310, golf going in that mid-third range, Tua going in the mid-3, Brock Purdy moving up to the mid-three,

fields falling to the early three and love moving up to the early three range is pushing more receivers down. So it's actually viable to draft, you know, a Brees Hall, a Gibbs, go anchor RB if you trade out of the first round because receivers are just getting pushed down right now. Alavi's a fourth round pick.

Cooper Cup is an eighth to seven and eighth round pick. There's so much value in those seventh rounds, if you're okay, having some vets, Adams, sorry, not Godwin. Debo. Adams, Debo, Diggs, Cup, Keenan Allen in the ninth, Evans, Mike Evans, yeah. You're just getting some killer wide receiver values right now just pushing down. And then, of course, there's Nico Collins in the,

in the late 4. Waddle is actually at a very comfortable place right now in the mid-fours. I'm actually finally comfortable drafting Jalen Waddle in the mid-four. I have been anti-Waddle for years because he was going in the fucking second round. I don't want second round Jalen Waddle. He's alpha-cucked. I don't want that. He's 100% cucked by A.J. Brown.

So, or not A.J. Brown, Tyree Kill, who's also back in the second round. Shout out. Shout out to everyone that let me draft Tyree Kill in the mid third because he got traded to the dolphins. You're still loving that. Yeah. It won me leagues for two years. Just love it. I appreciate all of you. The more I look at that third round, that third round is ugly as hell.

Those third round quarterbacks are so bad. And it's such a dead zone. Hey, almost all those third round QBs are bad. There's a first round QB going in that third round. Tyler doesn't count, but Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, Tua, and like, Jerich Gough in the third. Like, I don't know how you can do that. And then there's such a dead zone of QBs. I don't mean to get off top of it, but you got, you got 5-9, well, I guess,

5-9 in the draft and 5-9 in real life, Price Young right here. And then no quarterback goes for another almost two rounds. Like, you have to avoid that dead zone of QB. You can't pick a quarterback there. If you're stuck, like if you have no quarterbacks or one quarterback, you can't dive in that dead zone right there. If you're the one that picked Bryce Young, like right there, you pretty much threw away a pick because what's the difference between him and like a shot at Levis way down in the ninth? Like, yeah, just looking at the board. I don't know if you guys

have any takes on that. So, all right, I just want some clarification here. You're saying you don't want a quarterback in the third round, but then there's this huge dead zone and quarterbacks. I'm very okay with getting my QB one in the third round. Yeah, I'm very cool with that and then waiting much further down to get the Stafford. Some days the Will Levisis depends on how risky I'm feeling. Kirk Cousin's Derek Carr, but I'm very much okay with waiting for that second one if we're doing that. Yeah, I just think where we differ, and I think maybe I'm like messing up.

But like when you said the Bijan, the Bijan pits for Justin Herbert, like I just want Justin Herbert there. Like I don't want to get out of that tier. Like I just don't want to give up one of these. Like I want one of those first on quarterbacks. Like I don't want to lose Justin Herbert for, you know, running back and attack. end that may never happen like i want just want just an herb right there like and this is this is why wherever you have leaks that have people who just want to trade down you can still find that person

to trade up we all have our different preferences and what we want to do see but i don't i don't think that way only because i know that again i mean again and i post this a lot in the discord when i when i And I say it a lot into the mic. I'm comfortable being wrong on things like that. Like I'm comfortable going from Herbert. And instead, I'm just going to roll out Matthew Stafford every week. And when he puts up nine, I'm just going to be okay with it while I watch my wide receivers dominate. So I'm totally okay not having 18 point per game Justin Herbert, 19, even 20.

I don't even think he, I don't think he hit 20 point per game. now that I'm thinking about I don't have them pulled up here off the top of my head but I'm comfortable knowing that I can make that up in the aggregate with my higher value players at running back right so where somebody Andy you might be comfortable saying yeah I want Justin Herbert and I'll take Naji in the 10 or Connor in the 14th

I don't I want the elites the upper elites at the top tier at the expense of being able to tear down at a position like quarterback. Those players you mentioned, like those players you mentioned, those are like sexy till they play players. Or like, like Kyle Pitts looks really good in your lineup till he plays

and then he scores five points. And then you just wish you had Justin Herbert. No, but in a tight and premium league, I'm still not like regretting having Kyle Pitts on my roster. Because I'm very much aware of, you know, his situation, injuries, things like that. If you go and you look at things like

fantasy points per dropback or fantasy points per opportunity, let's say, to include some of the rushing, there's just other options. And I agree that I don't want to be sitting there in the fourth round drafting, or the third round drafting guys like Tua or whatnot. But I'm fully aware that like,

yeah, Pits hasn't looked super sexy but his upside is there for sure in those big games that's what tight ends are until they break out I'm fine with that in a tight end premium I don't want to be rolling out Ty Conklin like I do in so many leagues because I miss out on that you're still gaining a position of scarcity

a player with upside who's young who has insulation and a situation that can get better when he doesn't have Desmond Ritter throwing him the ball and a head coach that takes them out at the goal line constantly, then, yeah, there's a clear path there. We know what Herbert is, and Herbert's very good.

He's a very good asset. But there's just quarterbacks that you can, again, make it. I would just, Kyler Murray. I would trade out of Justin Herbert to go and get Kyler Murray. Fantasy points per dropback, Justin Herbert last year was a 0.47 fantasy. points per dropback. Kyler Murray was a point five. I agree. I just don't know how realistic it is. I know it's in here, but like I just don't know how

realistic that is in like most leagues to really get Kyler there. But it's happening all the time in the half of the second round all day. At least, I know we're using this draft board an example, but we're talking about from every bit of ADP searching that I've been doing. Yeah, Kyler Murray going in that in that at least the maximum that I've been seeing him unless it's like a really sharp Kyler Murray individual. He's going in the late second or early three. Like that's just where he's going. Especially now with the rookies going in there.

And it's a travesty. You should be going in the first round. Without question, I would swap Trevor Lawrence in the mid two. I would put Lawrence at the beginning of the third than before I put Kyler. Yeah. People love Trevor Lawrence. But that's a great example on tiering down from tier to tier. We can just immediately shift right to that.

Let's talk about tearing down within a position to gain elsewhere. Because I think that's kind of what we were doing already. There's a couple of quarterbacks where I'm not comfortable doing that. Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, and a list. And even still, Lamar Jackson, he's teetering. I've talked about how Lamar Jackson is the worst elite fantasy. asset that you can have for years because his 12-point games come in bunches and then his 40-point games come in bunches.

So you never know what you're quite going to get with him. You just know that he can blow your league up every four to five weeks and then go on runs and tears, right? So he's teetering on that. Yeah, I could trade down to Kyler-Murie-type tier two rounds later. I can do that. Every other quarterback on the board from Burrow to Herbert to Hurst. Hertz to Richardson, Lawrence, Dack, Kyler Love, Fields Purdy, Tuat, Gough, even Watson.

I am comfortable moving up and down within those quarterbacks if it means getting pluses like Nico Collins, Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Rishie Rice, Kyle Pitts, DJ Moore, etc, etc. I'm okay with that. I'm totally fine. And getting obviously picks and whatever else it comes into, what you're looking for when tearing down, because I know this was a question that got asked. What I am looking for in terms of how I pick a player to tier down to, are there a range of outcomes at least similar? On a week-to-week basis, will they be able to provide similar to greater production on any given week consistently? Fuck it, even inconsistently.

Can they just do it? Like, I know that Derek Carr, towards the end of the year, was playing like Justin Herbert. He can give you those games. Now he's going to give you a lot of bad games at the same time, but every player in the league does. Look at what Patrick Mahomes did this year.

Everyone was pining for Patrick Mahomes to have good games. This is a year you could have tier down from Pat Mahomes to you get a tear down to Jordan Love or Brock Purdy or Tua or golf at any point. and gained so much in total value. And yes, it's Patrick Mahomes, and he's goaded and he's super good, but on a week to week basis,

his production is still replaceable, which sounds super messed up to say. But if you remove the name and just add the data, on a week to week basis, you can get at least similar production, and you're just adding monstrous value each time. I mean, I think you're saying it exactly right. And that's also how you start designing your tiers too,

whenever you're doing your rankings. I think a very fun thing, at least for this, is how some of these younger assets start getting valued beyond where they're currently going to be able to produce. And that's a very easy way to start making up some of these values whenever you're tearing down. If you're in a similar tier, but you're going from somebody who,

I don't know, it's their second year in the league, and everybody's really excited down to somebody who it's say it's their fifth year in the league. We already know what they are. And they're going to still be producing better, similar, if not better numbers than somebody who everybody's really excited about. I think Rashi Rice down to Michael Pittman, Brandon Ayuk. I think that that's a pretty good example. You could potentially go from Rashi Rice all the way down to Jordan Addison and still be in a very similar tier.

But just with what Rice is doing in the playoffs, right now that's also helping his value go up. But I think that that's a very good way to start gaining value. And I think it's the easiest to do in the wide receivers than any other position. But that's a very good place to do it. Pick up. I don't know, I think that that's going from almost fifth to six round or from early fifth to late in the fifth round.

Easy way to change your, I don't know, 11th round pick into an eighth, the seventh round pick and really help yourself out there, especially if you don't already have your quarterback yet but get that extra pick in the seventh round get somebody who's just going to slot right into starting lineup already yeah i think receivers is the easiest way to demonstrate similar range of outcomes while picking up values i had a question asked of me in another discord that i'm in at going for two dot com a shout out to jeff lambert over at going for two dot com who runs a good ship over there Someone had asked if they should trade A.J. Brown and a 25 first for Tyree Kill and the 106. It's like, without a doubt.

There's no question in my mind that you should make that trade. You're getting better than similar production because A.J. Brown has never outscored Tyree Kill. A.J. Brown has never surpassed 18 fantasy points per game. Ever. He's never done it. Tyree Kill is a monster. So you're getting similar production. You lose a little bit of years. You're netting a guaranteed top six pick in this draft for a 25-1 in this

while giving yourself an opportunity to trade for another 25-1 at any time leading up for that draft. That's a smash, in my opinion. And that is a clear way in this draft, Tyree Kill went before A.J. Brown. I don't see that being the normal once we really get into some. some serious ADP data, which we should be doing next week. I don't think that's going to be the norm. I think that this is a very case-driven situation. But shout out to whoever got AJ Brown at the 36 here.

Anytime you get AJ Brown in the mid-3, I mean, that's just a smash-this guy that was going at 2-1 last year. But that's an example of, quote-unquote, tearing down while gaining immediate value right now. Because whoever you take it 106, neighbors, Awuze, Bowers and Daniels is going to have more value than that 25-1. So that's just a simple way to do it. Now, I talk a lot about the nesting doll wide receiver market and why I would just

interchange any one of these wide receivers. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to explain this because this is another question that got asked of us. How do you navigate tiering and how do you decide what players go into these tiers? well let's talk about it because it's not that hard for me to sit here and point it out and again wide receivers are the same now I'm going to exclude Garrett Wilson here in this because I think Garrett Wilson is not a nesting doll I think he's absolutely goaded and he had the season that he had with four plays from Aaron Rogers

whatever it ended up being and then the ghost of Zach Wilson and then what was it I think it was simian Tim Boyle Tim Boyle, like Simeon, just like the worst possible case scenario. Wilson again, and he still balled out. He was still an absolute baller. So I think he doesn't fit into this, even though his end totals kind of fit into this, this tier. So let's talk about the nesting dolls. Jalen Waddle, Chris Alave.

You're going to not like this, Andy, but be ready. T. Higgins. Devontas Smith I'm gonna exclude DJ more from this because I think he finally got out of the nesting doll situation put him in there I think he's better than the nesting dolls he has alpha he has true alpha upside

I don't think these other guys really do but wattle olave Higgins Smitty Ayyuk Pitman London JSN Flowers Rishi Rice Rice, Tank Dell, D.K. Metcalf, Jordan Addison. There's no way you can tell me that these

guys' range of outcomes aren't all pretty much identical. Their usage, except for the rookies, obviously because they're rookies. But really, they're Zay Flowers, upside limited to the team that he's on, right? There's just never going to be that elite wide receiver one out of Baltimore. It's just not going to happen. They run the ball too much. And then everyone else. J.S.N. Not the alpha on his team. Rishie Rice might be the alpha wide receiver on his team, not the alpha pass catcher on his team.

London, alpha wide receiver on his team. Upside, not really there. Michael Pittman, a lot of targets. A lot of targets. Really good. True elite upside, not really there. Ayuk, same thing. Smith, same thing.

T. Higgins, same thing. Waddle, they're the same player. So if you're wondering how I'm identifying these guys to trade up or trade down or what have you, I look at their possible range of outcomes and I go, well, it's pretty probable that Waddle and Higgins in a full healthy season, they're going to finish the year about the same.

They're probably going to provide at least similar upside, even though Waddle's big blow-up game upside is absolutely nuclear. His floor is also hell, especially in that offense right now. So same thing to Smith. He has big boom, blow-up games, but his floor is mid.

It's so mid. And every single one of these guys, you can tear down to Keenan Allen and get big pluses and end up with production. That's similar. And that's the point. You have to be okay knowing that you're going to

lose maybe an opportunity on a big swing upside. I don't think T. Higgins is leaving Cincinnati, but if he did, he has an opportunity to be an alpha, right? Maybe A.J. Brown gets traded. Now Smith is maybe the alpha, right? You have to be comfortable. Tyree Kill is going to retire to do porn, apparently. That's what he said. That's what the amateur porn site, X.com, is talking about because of what, because of an interview. I mean, hey, that's your career path, man. God's I wish I could do it. No one wants to see that. So shout out to him.

And yeah, so maybe you're missing out on that opportunity. I'm okay missing out on that in terms of gaining, whether it's multiple ones or some of these upside type players. I'm okay with that because you got later in this draft here specifically, Debo in the seventh, Adams in the mid-seventh, Keehan Allen in the ninth, Mike Evans in the eighth. Mike Evans in the 8th All of those guys are going to give you Similar to Equal Production To Waddle Ayuk, Smith, T. Higgins,

Chris Alave, D.K. Metcalfe. I mean, what we saw from Tank Dell, I don't think he's sustainable, but I think he's a good player. But again, I think those older guys lower are going to provide you with similar enough production that will allow you

to gain overall value elsewhere. Maybe it's like when Andy, what you said. Maybe it's the quarterback. Maybe you don't want to tear it out from quarterback and use Justin Herbert or Jalen Hertz or Anthony Richardson to tear down. You can for sure use these wide receivers to do that.

It'll probably quote unquote hurt you less. For sure. It'll feel more palatable. It's super flat. Exactly. So that's how I'm looking at tiering. What are their range of outcomes? Tight end, it's harder to do.

Tight end way harder to do. I mean, we talked, Lucas. Yeah. We did a whole schick about how it's tight end bliss now in Dynasty and how we're getting there. But there's still a big difference to La Porta to Kincaid, McBride, to Hawkinson. So it's definitely harder to do at tight end. It's once again, even though it's a deeper, quote unquote, pause, you still want to be wary that you still want to take one of the top five, in my opinion.

I want to walk out of the draft of the Leporta, a McBride, less Andrews, but I want Kincaid, and I want Pitts. Because I really think Isaiah Likeley's here to stay. I really do believe he's going to eat into Mark Andrews a little bit. Hey, you know. I had the pause on deck. I had the pause on deck. I was ready. what I was saying.

All right. Pause. I think you're exactly right though, especially at this time position. We're all super excited to get one of these really young guys. It does hurt knowing that you have to pay up that much to get one of them. But I think that they're definitely worth it. It's not the scenario where we've had of,

there's only three to choose from. If you don't choose one of those three, well, wherever you get someone like Injoku last year or like, I don't know, Goddard was down there whenever he's still in value. Evan Ingram was down there. So it sucks. It's just part of the reality of where we are. I will say though, if you don't get one of those five, really don't care about touching it until late, late.

Seven, eight. I mean, we're looking at Kelsey falling into the eight. I don't think that's going to be a regularity. No, I don't think so either. I don't hate that at all. Upside games. I don't know why Musgrave is going ahead of Kraft right now in drafts. I mean, I think Kraft has done a more than good enough job to sustain a role there. But I mean, you're getting the kittles.

Correct. You're getting the kittles. You're getting the injokos. You're getting, shout out to Jake Ferguson, who is just skyrocketing up ADP boards. He was my tight end favorite last year, if you remember. He was my favorite late round tight end last year. I don't know who it's going to be this year. I haven't got my finger on it yet.

But the more I dive into ADP data, I'll have one for you guys. And I'm, I got to tell you, if I pat myself on the back, pretty good. Conk Daddy, right, a couple years ago called that one, gave you. Joanne Johnson, another one I get, you know, I'm pretty good with the late round tight ends here. But same situation. And then you're looking at running back. And running back has always been just a clear fade for me. outside of the top three, top four,

like McCaffrey in the second round, I'll never touch it. I think that's bad roster construction. I think you're pigeonholing yourself into a win now team. Not good. But like, I'll draft some Breece Hall in the second. I'll draft some Bejohn in the second. I'll draft some Gibbs in the second.

I actually think there's value in these mid to late round running backs. So if you're tearing down and you're like, oh, no, I didn't get Gibbs. Or you're like, okay, I'll trade out of Gibbs or Bejohn because somebody really wants them. I'm going to get a sixth round pick. I'm going to get a ninth and tenth round pick. Well, guess what? You can get Rashad White in the mid-sixth.

Don't like Rashad White in the fifth. Love Rashad White in the sixth. Love Najee, anywhere after the eighth and lower. Love it. You can give me Derek Henry in the 10, 11, 12. Smash. You're getting your RB1. in the 10th round,

which is usually very difficult to do, but we're talking about guys with volume, Mondre, Pollard, Henry, I really hope Nick Chubb comes back, baby, I really do, but Naji,

Mixin, Camara, all going after or in the 8th and later. And don't get me wrong, I like Calvin Ridley, I like Terry McLaren, I like Amari Cooper,

I probably take these guys over running backs, but I mean it's getting harder and harder and harder to continue to push down like if you already have five receivers then no I wouldn't draft Amari Cooper I would I would draft one of the running backs because at some point you're just storing

wide receiver value on your roster and to what end so at some point I mean yeah but also can we can we shout out Christian Kirk going ahead of Calvin Ridley I mean I don't know I don't know anyone else that could have possibly predicted.

Oh, that was definitely coming. I don't know. Lucas was it you? Was it definitely wasn't Jacob. But I know, I know it was me that was team Kirk over team Ridley, team gambler that I also. I don't know if I was on Kirk by at least knew I was definitely not wanting to buy any Ridley. So all props to you on getting that one right.

that's how we roll baby uh that was just an easy fade for me but i'm gonna i'm gonna relish the victory lap on it because i'm not i may not have do we have victory lap music yet i don't i haven't got the victory lap music so yeah but i'm gonna get that i'm working with tray okay we're gonna get that on next thing to be added to the soundboard easily victory yeah you're right unfortunately i will never hear that But you know, it's it's fine. I have my own other strengths like just stockpiling a whole bunch of picks and having fun with that. And Jerry Judy, baby. Yeah.

Yeah. But, you know, that was fun for a little while until it wasn't. And boy, it wasn't after that. What I call that three years ago. And you fought me until this. Oh, my goodness. We relented. We fought that for so, so, so long.

And yes, yes, then I finally said, you know what is what it is. Good. I'm happy for you. I'm happy for you. I'm happy for me too. That's personal growth and I'll take it. Always improving. We talk about it all the time at fantasy, with, in fantasy football, being able to establish

that kind of growth. Well, look, I think that we've done a pretty good job hitting on some of this. the only thing I want to ask more of is this is the point after looking at this board I got inspired for this question that we briefly talked about off air. How do you take advantage of league mates futures first and second round picks? I'm talking 25, 26. If you can get it, if your league lets you three years ahead. Like there's always managers that you can identify that are probably future orphan teams in a startup. There are always that guy that's like, no, I'm taking these elite vets.

I'm just going for the title year one. Yolo, don't care. F these picks. Somebody has to win. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I love those guys. I love those guys. And there is always one.

And I'm looking at this board and I've already identified that player. You know, if you're drafting five, six, seven running backs and aging veteran receivers, I want that guy's first-round pick So how do you guys take advantage of that? What are you looking for In targeting your leaguemates That might be more willing To move those future ones for these vets

Right now Definitely the same as you Like just looking at who's drafting Like immediately the guy who drafts Chris McCaffrey Like you want to go get his pick because you know that he should most likely be drafting all the you know the Devante Adams all the seven players right you just keep you just keep looking or like in this specific draft like this guy at the 110 like he has six tight ends in the first

eight rounds like I want to get his first and I want to pay out for it as much as I can okay okay I didn't I didn't realize he was doing that until right now what why oh I don't know what's going going on right now. His name is last place for life. So at least it's kidding. Yeah, exactly. So you want his pick. So I will say this during my startup

drafts. Hey, I like bully. I like bully tight end and tight end premium. Okay. Boley tight end and tight end premium is one point one point bonus for a tight end. Come on. What is bro cooking? You took a fourth round

dog can get a fifth round, Jake Ferguson. All right. I'll say this. I'll say this at least he's not drafting bad titans other than I'm not big fan of Jake Ferguson but Laporta, Kincaid and Joku, comeet. Those aren't bad, but... Not a fan of Jake Ferguson. Well, as going right after Kyle Pitts, no, not really. Just take a wide receiver brother. Just take a wide receiver. But if you're getting a full point per game bonus, his 50 catches equal 100. So I mean, it's it's more than viable.

in a flex spot on a week-to-week basis to go bully tight-end and tight-end premium. So I'm going to say, I'm going to back you up. You won't be last place for life. I'm going to back you up here. If you're drafting a tight end that is going to, like David and Joku in this format would have been like wide receiver five for like seven weeks. So I'm just saying, we're talking tight-end premium strategy.

When the bonus is this tilted to that way, I would rather have some of these young bully tight ends than like JSN. okay so I get it I'm just backing you up big homie but I think you're right I think there's also that guy in every league that at least that I've been drafting in that will send every other manager their future first straight up for a pick for like they'll send it to everybody oh those are my favorite it starts in the third round it starts a third round yeah I accept it in the fifth yeah you could almost always get a free first round pick for that fifth round start up pick almost every time and that's why that's why to me i'm

always in contact with that man chase you had this guy sending you who what is this guy doing that's sending a first already and then if you just get a reply maybe you don't you're fishing a little bit but i like to do that and that's how actually i met lucas i was making fun of somebody's draft yes that's exactly what it was oh my goodness that tactic i messaged lucas about it because i joined him as a forum boy back then and I was like is this guy what is this guy doing and that's how Lucas and I became friends and now we're podcast together making fun of somebody's draft goodness how that was during COVID that was a COVID draft holy cow I think it was a COVID 20 league if I'm not it was a flash from the past holy cow that's a deep pull right there yeah pull right there so

Holy shit did your voice get deep all of a sudden? What was that? I don't know, man. Where did that come from? Oh, my God. Anyway, there's always that guy. And I'm always in touch with my league mates as best as I can. Because if he's doing it, if he sent that to me, he sent that to other people.

And if you get that kind of confirmation, get ahead of the game. Hey, look, man, this is how I approach it. Look, man, the 106 is still on the board. I wouldn't make that trade for a future one straight up. If you give me like a middle pick here in this draft, I think I could do that swap. And if he says no, I wouldn't do it for a middle pick. Start working. He's giving you an opening now.

And if he still says no, if that pick is still available later, go after it every other round with that same thing until that's enticing. And then if he does move his 25 one, go after his 25 seconds and his 26 one. Those people that are willing to move those future ones will always reveal the. themselves. Pause. Hey, yo. You know.

That is a really fun strategy. So the person, the first person to move a 25-1, you immediately start saying, all right, you don't want your future picks. What's it cost for your 26-1? And you can even move that rounds before you get to that pick that they'll actually move them for. You don't even have to wait to do that. you can just already hey I'm not sure if you're into it or not but like if you get the itch to move your your future picks let me know because I'm more than willing to work oh yeah yeah another fun thing that I like to do is as Tom Lee special true as soon as there's a run on running backs in any round that's immediately whenever you start trying to talk to someone to move that pick because somebody gets

desperate. Tom, I think it was my second year ever in a league. He took so much advantage of me on that. Oh my goodness. The Josh Jacobs, the Miles Sanders, and just gutted me. That was that was a tough, tough, tough lesson to learn. But you know, it was learned. So not doing that anymore, but I love that strategy. To be fair, you you fleeced me on Giovante. So that's this year true. can't even cap. You still talk me into it. Yep. And Trudy was also in there.

I remember that too. That was a sad moment. Look at, I think you're right and when to identify on that R.B. run because for the most part, Andy, if I've got, sorry,

if you've got James Cook and I offer you a first and a second for James Cook in an established league, I know you're the James Cook truther. But it's going to be hard to say no to that. imagine well i mean james cook is the actual goat so i'm not sure but no obviously you obviously take a first for him you're not going to get like those running backs those like middling running backs that just don't really catch the ball don't like those like you know 12 point replaceable running backs like you just want to get a first or any of them do same thing with like you know the

debos like that type of range and wide receiver there in the seventh usually i've said debo probably closer to like a six round pick like you can get a first for him like you can get a first for him You can get a first for anybody in that tier. No one's really paying a first for Debo in a league. So, like, if that's the tier of players on the board and you can get a first rate up for that, I've done that trade a bunch of times. Like, you're just not getting, like, those players aren't worth. They're like the middling tier players where it's like they're worth more than

their second, still not worth a first. So, yeah, I would, you know, all day, you know, those dudes, like you said, usually revealing themselves pause. Even before the draft starts, they'll start saying, like, how they want to move up, they want to get off their picks. So you could do a lot of finessing and drafts like that. And you're bringing up another great point. If you have a position solidified and you start to see that there's the end of a tier coming up for another position that you're not really interested in attacking right now, that's another great way to get somebody to pay more than what they normally would.

I know that it used to be a couple of years ago, DJ Moore was like the last of like the young elite. at the time wide receivers and people yeah there were people sending arms and legs trying to just get that opportunity to add them because it was scary after that

so that's a great way to really take advantage of trying to get somebody's first I know it's not exactly trying to get the first the one where somebody orphans it and it's the 101 and you just feel so freaking

proud of yourself but it's another good way just to get extra value that you're normally missing in some of your trade downs. Those late first turned to midfirst, really fast, really, really fast. So you want to attack those for sure. Oh, my, anyone. Oh, I've ever projected.

I can do a whole podcast on how stupid that statement is. You are, you are never not a turf toe, pulled hamstring, got out of bed wrong, hurt my back shoveled snow and jam my wrists away from being 107 you're just not so stop with that yeah i'm i'm looking to trade my projected late 251 oh your 251 is projected late tell me how no stradamus i hate that you can't guarantee nothing there's nothing guaranteed in this game oh we want those you want every one of those because those are the future orphans guys I'm just you know I'm just looking to cut back on my leagues right now you know life life is busy life's life's just been crazy I haven't really been checking them that much you know

know it's just not working so I wish I wish all you guys the best good luck but if you got a shit team with no picks on it though but if you got a startup let me know I'm in yeah yeah yeah my my league fees check will bounce but I let let me get in on that league real quick with you We know people like that for sure in RL, and it's sad. Sad world out there. But take advantage of those guys, it shouldn't be that difficult to assess who the guys are. Like Karim Belicia, MacAfri, right? MacAfree, Barclay, Henry, Jacobs, Pacheco, Evans, Deontay, Nick Chubb.

we need that I'm coming for your for your picks and this is no disrespect people draft how they draft nobody gets it right but I'm coming for your picks because that

late 25 that late 26 that you think you might have like a nice half your team's going to either be in the CFL or retirement home I just realized the 112 didn't pick a real player yet correct

he's I like no Oh, my gosh. He drafted Amari Cooper and Big Parker. He drafted Baker. He's got Baker, Addison Cooper, and then all the draft picks, man.

I think I think that's a totally viable strategy. Oh, that seems like something I do. You're getting Caleb, Marvin Harrison, Jr. You're getting neighbors or bowers. I mean, you better hope those hit, otherwise you're perpetually rebuilding.

But, I mean, I think it's, I think that's a fine strategy. And now you're making a play at one-on-one next year? I think that's okay. I don't agree with burning buy-ins, though. Like, that's burning. You're burning two years of buy-ins for no reason right there, at least. All right.

Would you consider that a competitive struggle or just a struggle? It's a struggle. That's not a productive struggle. That is a struggling struggle. So two years ago, I didn't make my first pick in a startup draft until the fifth round. And this wasn't one that you were picking players in. But I didn't make my first pick until the fifth round. Obviously, I got the 101, the following gear.

I made the playoffs this year. There's the only league that I did. But I did make the playoffs with Sam House, my QB2, and was very quickly out of the playoffs with Sam House, my QB2. So you live and you'll learn. But I do have a lot of fun with those type of things. just my strategy in general, I tend to struggle with trying to make a very competitive team first year in a rebuild just because I can't bring myself to trade up to be more competitive

whenever I'm like, oh, but the optimum value here is I don't know Tajay Spears in the eighth round. So I'm way until the eighth round to get my Tajay Spears. And then he goes seven, nine. And I'm like, well, not making that pick, yeat. And you just, you move on. I do have a lot of player take luck when I'm doing a startup. Because especially in a startup, I don't want to draft someone that I'm not a massive fan of. I just, I can't bring myself to do it.

So I do end up trading down a ton. And then it shows that I have 15 future picks because I threw one of them into every single deal that I did and all of my like I took everybody in the league's future second because I traded my 6.11th round picks that I had stockpiled for a second. But it's it's just one of the things that I tend to run into. I am not a great startup person. I like to settle into it a little bit more. And like I said, because I pigeonhole myself into players and I'm not willing to draft if the player I want's not there. So see that that I don't understand. I think that's totally whack to me.

I don't have strong, well, I don't say I don't have. I try not to have strong player biases that limit my drafting pool. I've made that switch progressively over the last couple of years, and I have just been prospering about it. And with that mentality, I think that you're doing yourself a real disservice yourself. Like you, Lucas, and anyone that does that, I know this. himself a disservice like the thing that really got me in trouble a lot back we actually cared about trade lance was not taking a quarterback because i'm going to trade lance be by qb1 and

it's going to ride or die luckily most people didn't let me do that so who thank you for that somebody that loved them more yep or uh not wanting to take a running back until there's two years ago travis etienne he was the he was the one i wanted because you could give him in the fifth round i'm like that's perfect that's it'll be my rb one and somebody loved him just a little bit more and you go well i'm not taking a running back until the eighth round now you can still pretty much get in the fifth round so there you go yeah i'll say i'll say that having a strong player bias is the reason you miss out on getting purdy because even last year like midsummer you're getting party in the 15th round. You could get Jordan Love in the 15th round, in the 12th round, even though

clear path to him starting. But people just didn't like these players because of previous bias, and they stick out like a sore thumb. I can't stand Baker Mayfield. I won't say that. I can't stand Cleveland Brown Baker Mayfield stands that were convinced he was goaded. He wasn't. He was very good his rookie year and had this thing with handing the ball to the other team every year after that. I always thought he was kind of an older player. Never liked him once his price crossed the fifth round. Stayed away from him.

Love 10th round Baker last year. Loved it. Love 10th round Derek R, which you'll get with impunity because he'll never move up from there. But having these strong. player biases is why you end up paying for Brock Purdy at 3-4 when you could have got Brock Purdy in the 10th a year later, a year earlier or trading form. And if you don't have, if you're a portfolio player like we are, I completely understand if you limit your league to like two, three, four, five, and you're a normal human being, why you would want to pay for that so

you could have a share of a player. I understand that. I think that's important to recognize. But having a strong player bias is the fastest way to miss out on an opportunity if you're a portfolio player about not getting some of these guys when they're dirt cheap when there is a clear path for them to gain value and brock purdy had a clear path to gain value so double ed sword though because that also led me to drafting kenny picket sure in that say rich but i do agree with you want to you want to take like especially when you're like the eight to eleven round you want to take the shots on players that could go up a couple rounds in value for sure what's wrong with kenny

pick it in the 10th of 15 round? There's nothing wrong with Kenny pick it in the 10th of 15th round. At the time, at the time, nothing wrong with that pick. It sucks now because we get to look at it through hindsight. I'm taking Will Levis in the 10th round. Oh, for sure, yeah. Hell yeah.

Ninth round, Will Levis? Yeah. You just want those shots over the like, over those like, you know, old like assets, like the, like the Keenan Allen's. Those are always going to be available for a trade in the league. You want like a guy. like Will Levis, like there's, he had like a bottom could fall out of a Will Levis pause for sure. But he also could be a fourth round starter pick in a year pretty easily if things go right for him.

100% offensive coach. And that's never happening to Keenan Allen. He's never going to be a fourth round of star pick. They can go get another wide receiver, pair him with Hopkins if they keep him, unleash Tage Spears, fix that offensive line. Don't run an archaic system that just slams are running back into the A&B gap continuously and repeatedly. And he has tools for sure. Like we saw it. Like we saw he he definitely he does. Now counterpoint

they could draft a quarterback and say nope. You get rid of this guy. For sure there's a risk. But you're also running the risk. Let's look at some players that went after. Deontay Johnson. Okay. Replacable wide receiver three with with upside. Okay cool. Stafford could retire. Kirk cousins may never be the same. Christian Kirk fine wide receiver three with upside second round rookie picks could all miss

Derek Carr is who he is he is who we thought he was and we let him off the hook they're all just Super obtainable players Yeah Isaiah likely Going really high right now

Because of the run that he's on Limited upside with Mark Andrews around McLaren we know what he is Nick Chubb may never play football again Calvin Ridley Okay Daniel Jones ass

Derek Henry Rocheon Ass Eccler Could never play football again Mondre 26 year old running back Who's

On a contract Right So Yeah Levis can fail So can every single Other player Taken after him

So Take the shot Take the risk Because you could be looking at 3, 4, 5xing Even if he plays moderately okay.

Because quarterbacks that play, they gain value in their rookie year. So we can expect that from Will Levis. I think we covered a lot here today. I think there's very wide open. This isn't necessarily the style of podcast I like to do. I like everything to be very structured and very, you know, sectioned out and deliberate.

But I think it's a very nice open general discussion. discussion on how to draft some teams. Look us a little bit to get cooked up. But we're, we ended up cooking and, you know, for everyone else's enjoyment. We, we served everyone, a hot dish.

Of drafting on this here podcast today. This is a great time. I'm glad that we got to do this. Lucas, I'm glad you hopped on with Andy and I. We are looking to book the next episode with myself, Andy, Tom Lee. Not 100% sure when that's going to be up, but we are cooking it up.

If there's content that you want that we didn't deliver, let us know in the comments. Tag us in the Discord. Whatever you want, whether it's Lucas, myself, Andy, whoever you want to. Let us know if there's content that you're not getting because we're here to provide you all

with dynasty content, whether it is trades, who to stay away from, who to draft. we're the next show is definitely going to be some players to avoid at ADP because I see some standouts right now again really tough to get a collection of data we are working on an ADP for everyone working hard on it so hopefully we can have that out so there's just a better tool out there for you let's get some final thoughts here we haven't done a final thoughts in quite a long time so Lucas you're the guest of honor final thoughts on today's program my first final thought is that i can't wait to see you and tom lee sport and budgie smugglers together that's just going to be wonderful oh i've i've missed that i can't wait to listen to more of this you know i miss hearing tom lee's voice every week i do um it's great one of the smartest players around i think that this is awesome this if I had listened to an episode like this,

whenever I very first got into Dynasty Fantasy Football, I wouldn't have allowed you to take a cheap Lamar Jackson at 112 when only three quarterbacks had gone off the board in that first round. I would have tried way harder because I think all you gave up was an eighth and you're early second to do it. So yeah, you live and you learn from mistakes like that. And that's just all part of what this is. You're having fun, learn from your mistakes,

listen to people who are smarter than you, which for me is pretty much any of the other podcasts out there. But yeah, you have fun with it. And, you know, it's conversations like these. They're important to have stuff that I really wish I had before I started. but, you know, now I get to pass on the wisdom from many, many mistakes onto our listeners. You have like a 200 IQ and you're out here talking about people smarter than you. Yes, and I think I traded a fifth, sixth, and future first for the chance to get Miles Sanders in the fourth round.

So shout out, Pensac. Let me learn. The next Sequin Barkley is, you got to remember, That was a time. I'll say that is my final thought. Andy, final thought from today's episode. I had fun.

I thought it was real cool, you know, getting to meet Lucas. He did cook me when I realized I don't like the third round quarterbacks, and I also hate Bryce dug and all the fifth round quarterback, so then I found out I only like about five quarterbacks. So he did kind of cook me there.

But I had pretty fun, man. I like that. I enjoy it. I'm happy to keep it up and, you know, do some more of these. I love it, man. My final thought is this.

It is easy to look back at hindsight and see your mistakes. It is so simple to do and to make fun of yourself and have others make fun of you for it. I remember when you traded so-and-so for so-and-so. That's fun. It's cool. But let me tell you, everyone makes bad deals. Everyone has made a bad trade. All right?

I've hosed Andy. right i've had i've had i've been hosed in that league i've oh i got receipts baby i appreciate james cook thanks buddy uh you know Lucas talked about he's been cooked he's cooked me everyone makes bad decisions we just want to minimize you exactly and if you're okay kind of being made fun of a little bit on a trade to trade basis let me tell you you'll win more than you lose and you'll be better off for it. Don't not be afraid of taking your shots. Just do it within reason.

I'm not to pound the table, go get your guy at whatever cost type guy. Don't hear what I'm not saying. Okay, we don't want to be going out making egregious trades just so we can pick up your favorite wide receiver. But do not be afraid to take your shots. Do not worry about ridicule. Just keep playing the game and keep learning. and keep growing.

As long as we don't repeat those mistakes that we made previously, you'll be all right, like me, who decided that I was still not going to draft late-declare wide receivers, and instead took Skymore over Chris Alave in 95% of my leagues, and now I'm left crying continuously every time I look back at those drafts. And as always, remember to check in on your loved ones, because you never know when they're going to need it. Remember that clear eyes and full hearts can never lose in your best days.

They're always been tilting. Good night, everybody. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.