Fantasy Football Daily - Tracking Tyreek, Michigan Sign-Stealing Scandal, NFL MVP | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: November 8, 2023

Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7) and Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) hit on a variety of hot-button topics for their Week 10 Take Talk discussion, including Tyreek Hill's bizarrely low ranking by ESPN tracking data, what will happen with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and their picks for the 2023 midseason NFL MVP. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS WITH CODE GURRIFIC25 AT CHECKOUT FOR 25% OFF: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠ READ DR. EDWIN PORRAS' INJURY [PRO]NE GUIDE WITH CODE INJURYPRONE25: ⁠⁠⁠https://injuryproneguide.myshopify.com/⁠⁠⁠ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. ⁠⁠⁠⁠Use our code FANTASYPTS⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog⁠⁠⁠ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. And voila, we are back with another episode of Take Talk. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. We got Stephen O'Rourke in chair number two as always. Stephen, what's up, man? Not much.

Just middle of the season, having fun. I think we're like, it's nice. We did some good games last week. We got good games this week. I think we're right in the wheelhouse of the NFL where things are starting to take shape for, you know, narratives for the end of the season and what the playoffs start to look like. So I'm loving it.

It's a great time. We're no longer working with small samples too on the data side, which is dice. Yes. Become a little bit more easy to project and to kind of anticipate, you know, early season data struggles are always rough because you're like trying to work in some of last year's data, yada, and it's just whatever. But we've got a nice big sample. Now, we're officially halfway through the season, by the way. Everything at the data

part of what we do is going great. Other than our guy, Michael Taylor, deciding to get married this week, he's one of our best charters here at fantasy points. He pulled a wecht slash O'Rourke and decided to go off and get married. So he's going to miss week 10. I'm not happy about that, guys. Not happy, but it is what it is. At this point, I think I'm culpable for this. It's a trend.

Yeah. It's one every year for the last three years. It's, yeah, it's great. And, like, you know, if one happens, that's probably your fault. If three happened, that's my fault. I'm the guy doing the hiring. I'm the guy finding you people. So I think that's got to fall on my shoulder.

I'll take the blame for that. So anyways, we have a unique show this week. I know last week we kind of tease that we might go game by game. We're not going to do that. There's enough other football things to talk about where I'd rather do that. One, we're going to get into some MVP discussion. But there's a couple other topics I want to hit. But before we do that, Steve, I want to address something.

The show is called Take Talk. So anytime we can discuss a take on the show. show, Steve, I want to do that. I'm not going to name this take by name for now. Maybe we'll get into that. Maybe we'll even have them on the show to debate. I don't know. But anyways, we, you know, recently, there was a podcast where the guys in the podcast brought

up the Fantasy Points Data Suite, which is really cool, by the way. I love the conversation as PFF and SIS and we were named with those companies. But specifically when they were talking about us, they were talking about how we were, the term was that was used was that we're a bit of a black box as far as our process goes and what we do and the quality control mechanisms in place yada yada yada so i think this is a fair criticism steve so i'm not coming on here to be mad and rant about it i think this is a fair criticism and i think this is what's been plaguing the data community for a while actually yeah there isn't enough accountability there's not enough um i don't know open curtain moments where you can kind of see the process so

i could promise you though if you're a listener and a subscriber of the data tool or a future of the data tool. We do not want to be a black box. That is something we really don't. I mean, one of the reasons Scott Barrett and I set out to do what we're doing was to break the trend of the data industry and the data community. We want to be as open and transparent as humanly possible. We're still pretty new at this. If you guys have any suggestions about how we can do a better job being transparent. I know something internally that we're going to be doing is a lot of YouTube shorts where we're kind of breaking down how we come up with a data point. for example. I know a catchable ball rate or accurate throw rate.

We're two that were being discussed recently of doing a quick YouTube short where we're kind of breaking down with the quality control mechanism for what we consider accurate and what we consider not accurate are. But any suggestions you guys have, please feel free to DM me, DM Steve, email the company. I don't care. Hit us up. Let us know. We do not want to be a black box. We want to be as open as humanly possible to earn everybody's trust. I think that's important. Yeah, I agree. I think transparency. And like you said, it is this, you know, the thing within the industry where it's a lot of blind trust. It's a lot of blind trust from the consumer, you know, myself, yourself included for years up until this point. You've been involved with it for years with a couple different companies. And, you know, I think there is that thought process with the consumers of like, well, I'm just assuming that these people know what they're talking. talking about and this is getting you know percolated correctly all that and I think that it's good to give a little insight you know I know that's a big reason why I got involved in the first place was that you know one I wanted to get involved because I love football and all that but also I thought that you know I want to be a part of it because I think that you know these stats are

interesting and I want to know how they come about because it is it is like you know you just to see it and assume and you it's given a description and all that and you're like yep that's it but a lot of you know companies us included up until this point it is just yeah it is that blind trust from people that we know what we're doing yep um I agree the the thing too is like we understand there's a lot of money based decisions being made on the data you're looking at like that's not loss on us. I think that's probably why I think we do what we do better than anybody else, because I think being that our origin is a fantasy company and a betting company and a DFS company, I think that helps shape what we do to better, you know, arm you guys for the war

you're going after with betting and DFS and fantasy. So I do think like that makes us better equipped to take on this task. We are, we do have a B to B product, but that's not our sole focus. Our focus is you, the consumer. So we are, we're 100% engaged towards you guys making better money decisions with our data. So I think, I think that will serve us well in the long run. Anyways, let's move on, Steve. One of the things we want to talk about, and we meant to do this last week, was Tyreek Hill in the ESPN receiving model. You know, we ran out of time last. we kind of forgot and then ran out of time last week. But this is Take Talk and that kind of was a take.

But they have a model where they've basically ranked Tyree Kill as the 16th best receiver in the NFL. Which, Steve, that's freaking crazy. It's so funny. I don't even know how I genuinely don't know how you can stand by that. Right. They've had two weeks to retract this now, by the way. to like confident like it wasn't even that they released it and people criticized it because there was criticism that came that came out and the person that you know was managing it um

you know people were people were kind of coming after him not really coming after him but they were asking questions about it and darn it the guy stood by it and was like no this is like we said like that's legitimate he's the 16th and it was that they put in a lot of adjustment for certain um certain i can't think of the word i'm thinking of but variables yes there it is certain variables that they adjust for and that led to tyriek being 16th and one of the big things that they adjusted for that he had said is tyriek's speed which i can't even take it seriously i'm sorry which I can understand to a degree that, no, I can't. Actually, I take it back.

I can't understand it because that's like taking away a big part of what makes him good. But also this assumption that like the speed needs to be adjusted for also lends that all people who have are fast, utilize that speed in the same way, which is just blatantly false. Because if that were the case, we would have Tyree Kill, we would have Darius Hayward Bay, Jamison Williams, Artavis Bryant, let me think of guys in the past. Sonoris Moss. Like these guys that came out of college and ran, you know, 4, 3, 4, 4, like low 4, 4, low 4-3 like in that range that speed it would mean that everybody would be as good as

Tyreek if you're adjusting for that speed you're saying that that is not a differentiator and talent that is just a that is just something that they can do and everybody could everybody could do it if they had tiring speed and that's just not true the thing that is really frustrating about the speed adjustment is you're taking a clear skill that Tyreek has and you're penalizing him for it. But the only reason you're doing that is because it's actually measurable and discernible. You can make the same argument that a guy like Stefan Diggs, his quickness is a cheat code. And we're going to adjust for quickness.

There's not a quickness measurement. You can, yeah, you could go back to Combine and go short shuttle three cone data, but that's still kind of skewed. They're literally using NGS speed data to make this curve. and it just happens to be the only other metric they have. I don't, right. That's the part that's mind-blowing. It's like you can't,

you can't athleticism correct for every other trait that a receiver has, but you can for speed, so it doesn't make any sense. And they also penalized him for his yards after the catch number because his depth of target was too high, which makes no sense. Did his depth of target cause him to force 20 mistagles on the season leading all wide receivers?

I don't think so. Probably not. Yeah. And yards after catch has been a huge part of his game since he came in the league, whether that was, you know, think about year one when he was in Kansas City. Was he getting a ton of deep targets? No. He wasn't a great route runner yet. He didn't know how to use that speed and run routes in rhythm and time with Patrick Mahomes or H.A.L.

I think that's something that is lost. Now I think it was lost in the time when he was in Kansas City is that because of his speed, because of. Patrick Holmes' arm. There was a lot of assumptions, I think, and a lot of, like, now that you're, like, going back in hindsight, people are looking back and they think that it was a lot of deep balls to Tyree. I think that he didn't have that high of a deep ball target rate. They were successful when they did it, especially not early.

Right. They were successful when they did it. And I think that's a big reason that people lean toward that and think that. but Tyreek was used so much more in like screen, short game, even a little bit. Like he makes a living in the middle. Yeah, and he makes a living in the intermediate. Like the deep ball is just a, you know, a perk of what he can do, but it's not all he can do.

Yeah. They literally, when they drafted him, he was a running back slash wide receiver. He played at least at the power five last. level. He played more running back than the wide receiver. He had like a hundred and something carries his one year Oklahoma State. A hundred and then the chief's using the same exact way. He played running back a ton. The speed, the point, bigger point being, if the speed was the reason he was who he is, that he would have been that guy from the start. But he had to create a role in the NFL by being a gadget guy, being a screen guy, being a yards after catch guy. He's an elite

yards after catch guy. That's the part that's so frustrating. And to make a weird adjustment because the depth of target. It's almost like they went out of their way. It literally felt like they went out of their way to push Tyree Kill down the chart. Like, oh, he's the consensus number one. So we're going to like not do that. Kind of like they did the same thing with Aaron Donald like two years ago.

Same guy. Right, right. Same team of people tried to say Aaron Donald, well, actually, he's not that good. I mean, he's not that good to run. I remember they doubled down and they literally said Aaron Donald. One of the things that hurts him is, he gets too much penetration, Steve.

They actually said that. Yeah, right. Too much penetration. It messes up the run lane or the, you know, the runs, I can't run fit lanes for all the other defensive linemen and linebackers because he gets too much penetration. Yeah, I'm sure every coach in the NFL is like, you know what, Aaron, try not tackling the guy four yards in the backfield. Can you please, like just let someone else make a tackle around the line of scrimmage for us? What the hell are we talking about?

And it's also, again, it's discrediting. Like, at the time, it's discrediting what the Rams were doing on defense because you can't tell me that, like, Rahim Morris at the time, the D.C. did not coach and plan for the fact that Aaron Donald is that disruptive. Like, you can change the way, like, you can adjust and change the way the guys fit run. Right, exactly. based on the personnel that's on the field. And that's why they, you know, that's why they had, you know, some bigger. Like, that's why they had like, you know, A. Sean Robinson in there because he's not a big penetrator. He's a guy that you can have, maintain the line and kind of slide along the line and fill the gaps that Aaron Donald had, you know, from rushing too good, I guess.

Like, it's just I, this contrary, like, and I think that this is a big. thing with the industry as a whole is this need or want to be contrarian to the point of to the point of fault of like wanting to zag when everyone is zgging just because it creates a conversation like it creates a conversation it puts you in the you know the the circle being talked about just because now you've created a metric where you are different and sometimes that's good I mean that's the big thing with data as a whole. It's a big thing with us and PFF and all that is being able to find those, you know, those differentiators, those diamonds in the rough, those guys that are being underappreciated

or the guys that are being overappreciated. But that's, it's like sometimes it gets to a point where it's like, okay, we need to relax a little bit and just under and just be okay with this guy being better than everyone else. Yes. For reasons that either like we can't necessarily explain or. you know, Tyree kill being too fast. Like, yeah, that's probably frustrating that this guy can do so many different things and it can be such a weapon all because of his ability to utilize his speed.

But again, to take that away from him, it feels disingenuous because, you know, he's not, he did not run the fastest 40 ever. He's not, you know, he's up there with the fastest players ever. But again, it's like they're. not every fast player has turned out to be Tyree Kill. Adjusting for that speed says that, like at least in my head, it says that every player who has that speed

has a baseline of they're this good, and then we go from there. And that's just not true. Yeah. Yes, to be clear, too, by the way, my actual stance on this issue, Tyree Kill was my number one wide receiver going into last year, my number one wide receiver going into this year,

year. He's still my number one wide receiver in the league. He's probably a first ballot hall famer to me. I think he might be the best receiver of this generation, which is insane to say when you've got guys like Calvin Johnson in the same generation. I think technically right? Yeah, I think he is. Yeah. Anyways, there's regardless of the insane production, which is insane by the way, there is not a player in the league who puts the fear of God into their opposing coordinator more than Tyree Kill. He, fundamentally changes the way defenses have to play. He is so good as a deep threat that it opens the world up to him elsewhere as well.

And for his teammates as well. He's so good after the catch that if you're going to play too high safeties against him, he's going to destroy you in the short and intermediate part of the field. Right. You can't cover him. And then when he catches the ball, he's going to make guys miss. He's a problem everywhere. A true three-level threat, there isn't a play you can't run for him.

I don't know how else to say it. Oh, he's also good on contested catches. He's small and strong and he's fighting. And he's a maniac and he puts his body on the line. I don't know how else to say it, but this dude is the best. I don't think people disagree with this either, Steve. So we're probably spending too much time on it. But I think the general consensus was, oh, this is a joke.

Why is Tyreek 16th? Right. Right. And we had to touch on it. And to the yak point, I think that honestly, Tyreek Hill is one of the smartest players when it comes. to picking and choosing his points where he's going to go get yak. Tyler Lockett is kind of,

is kind of similar. And there are other guys who have been and are in the league that are similar in this way. And it really is a football IQ thing of knowing when and where to take your chances with getting yak. Yeah. Because you'll see it with technical he'll sometimes. He'll catch the ball and go down right away. He understands how big he is. He understands the positions of players on the field.

And he knows when and where he can. can, you know, take his shots of like, if I make this man miss, I can, you know, keep this going or I've got guys all around me. It's better for me to just get down, make this catch, and move on to the next down. It's a football IQ thing. And again, to penalize him for that is just hilarious. Yes. All right.

Let's move on. We got one more topic before we get into MVP discussion through the halfway point. And this is a topic that's not technically NFL-related. but the reason I'm throwing it in the hopper, Steve. Last, two nights ago, I got a DM from somebody saying, hey, do you think this is going to impact the way NFL teams view these prospects? And that is the, this is the Michigan football scandal

that's currently going on. I've got some pretty, I got a pretty strong opinion about this. I would say different from what you've seen in the media as well. So anyways, I was like, well, I guess since they tied it to the NFL, we could talk about it on a TikTok. To answer that, no, I don't think NFL scouts or teams will care whatsoever about this. This is just kind of part of the game of football. And besides the players had nothing to do with it, like it's completely moot. Right.

I really don't even think it's going to be considered or talked about unless, you know, more information comes out that, you know, J.J. McCarthy was the ring leader of the... Right, right. I don't see happening. So anyways, I thought we could talk Michigan football scandal. For those that don't know, which I don't know how you wouldn't know, they're being accused of stealing teams signs with video. I guess the violation they're alleged to break is they videoed another other team's signs from the opposing sidelines or stands.

Yeah. I guess in the NCAA penal code 11.16.66. you're not allowed you steal sign stealing is completely legal but it's not if you're recording um with a video camera of some sort which right you know there's a lot of reasons that doesn't make any sense but um we can we can break it down I guess by I don't do you have a hard take on this or do you just want me to go and then you can you can add in um I don't know hard I have gone back and forth on a hard take might I don't think I have a hard take on it. necessarily. I have my opinions on it.

And I think that overall, I think that this has been, I think it's more a commentary on the lack of innovation of technology within college football than it is anything else. Oh, that's one of my talking points that we'll get into for sure. All right. Are you, just for the record, are you a Michigan fan? No, I would not consider myself a. Michigan fan. I think it's important to disclose because a lot of people, as soon as you defend Michigan in any way, shape, or form, that you get accused to be in Michigan. Right. All right. So my take is twofold. One, the rule is super antiquated. It was written in like 1988. And the reason the rule exists was to prevent really rich programs like Michigan, like Notre Dame in Alabama, from sending video crews to opposing stadiums to, steal signs with video. It was a competitive advantage because, you know, bowling green or even, shoot,

even Michigan State probably didn't have the budget to do that at the time. This was a long time ago. College of football was very popular, but it wasn't the multi half a trillion dollar industry that it is today. So there is very much change since then. I think every Power 5 team, probably every Division 1 team, could now afford to do something like that, regardless of the fact that now, all it takes is this. This is a cell phone if you're audio only. I'm holding it on my phone. You don't even need a video recording career anymore.

You could literally send a guy to a stadium with a cell phone and he can get four kids on his phone. So the rule is antiquated. It doesn't make any sense. I think this is a great opportunity to look at that rule and say, hmm, maybe we should probably get rid of that because let's not kid ourselves. Everyone's probably doing it. But I'm not a fan of what aboutism arguments. if if michigan did indeed break the rule there still should be some type of penalty like we saw

with james and williams that rule was stupid he got six games suspended we disagreed with the suspension length but they reduced it to three games happy medium i think something similar should probably happen with michigan if they prove that it happened yeah my second big point steve is if michigan let's just assume that every allegation against them is true when you're talking about what disciplinary action should take place. You have to consider what the competitive advantage was. And I got news for you guys. There wasn't one.

There's not a big competitive advantage because whether you got the signs via video or you got the signs from your sign breaker, just writing them down on pen and paper, everybody has the other team signs. It's literally part of the game. It was the part of the game when I played high school football. It's what. right so the competitive advantage is they they did what they increased the efficiency in which

they record signs or steal signs that's not that doesn't equate to wins and losses really in my opinion so yeah i think this is like a i'm not entirely sure how the nca rules violations tiers are but i think this would should be classified as a tier three violation maybe you dock them a scholarship or two next season i don't know but this is this is literally a nothing to me. I think it's ridiculous. We spent so much time talking about it. Not us, but the media. Like ESPN clearly has their bias with the SEC, so they're crapping all over Michigan. And now the Big Ten, because the Big Ten, it sounds like it's a widespread problem in the Big Ten. I don't know if saw that come out. It's not even just Michigan anymore. Again, that doesn't absolve Michigan

because you can't just do something because somebody else. It looks like the whole, if your friend jumped off a bridge, would you do it too, you know? Right, right. You can't play that game. There should be, if they broke a rule, there should be some disciplinary action. I just don't think the disciplinary action should be amount to much at all. This is literally nothing. Yeah.

I think it's because it's, I mean, the way was surfaced in the way that they've been caught, I think is the biggest thing. Like the whole, I mean, the whole CM, him potentially probably being on the CMU sideline is what really kicked this into high gear. Which is freaking hilarious. It was the, you know, the meme of the ladies and gentlemen, we got them. Like that was, it was, you know, Michigan's a story program. So it is fun for fun, exciting.

People love to hate them, especially in the Midwest, if you're not a Michigan fan. And so, you know, it gives people reason to be angry. And I think college football, more than a lot of other sports, is one of the most emotionally invested that people get into a team because of their association with the university. Maybe they went there. They grew up around it, yada, yada, whatever the reason. I do feel like there is a little bit more of an emotional factor within college football. And so it's created this bigger talking point and becomes it's blown up into what it is.

But I mean, like I said at the start, I think this is more commentary on how like lacking the NCAA is in technology and how far behind they are in the use of technology. Because all of this could be erased. Almost all of this could be erased if we just put microphones into the helmets of the quarterback like they do in the NFL. That's all it is all the signs, all the signs go away. every like that's why you don't really see this in the NFL you mean you don't see it in the NFL like you don't see guys making signs you don't see the big four by four grids with you know different symbols correlating to different plays they use other signs like hand signals and even there's been several NFL coaches now that I've admitted that they have teams that are just watching them all the time like Dan Campbell said it yeah like oh what he was asked about Michigan's like oh well I mean we have a team of people that that. Yeah. I mean, it's it's one of those where it's like if you're in like I hate, you know, they did break a rule by the letter of the law. Yeah. But you know, to pretend like not

everyone is trying to get this competitive advantage in that and that like Michigan's the first and only team to do this. And yes, they're probably the first and only team to get caught so publicly. but it's the nature of competitiveness, it's the nature of competition, it's the nature of sports in general, is that you are looking for every competitive advantage that you can. And you're putting yourself behind the eight ball if you're not doing that.

Yeah. And it's just, I like, I think it's, yeah, I think it's got blown out of proportion to a decree that is comical at this point. You know, now we're like publicly, getting, you know, the resignation letter and the how he got how he resigned.

And now I think like I saw something actually yesterday where you know, Blake Coramett started a business with him and oh, what does that mean for this scandal? And that's just like, oh my God. Probably nothing. Do you think they're selling

other team signs? I mean, the great business model. Yeah. You're putting that money. People are doing it anyway they're paying people to do it anyway i guess it's just be paying a different different team different people but don't third party with it less yeah i just it's it's a it's funny it's funny i love i love college football for this exact reason because of the emotion and the anger and the like staunch opinions that people have on it and and now i mean now it's turned into the point

where you like you have to take like everybody is taking a stance one way or the other and you know it's just it just devolved into such a pissing contest at this point. Yep. And some of it too is like so Harbaugh like the NCAA clearly has a beef ax to ground with Harbaugh for the

cheeseburger lie or whatever. They want him out of college football. I get it. He's not the most likable guy in the world, whatever. The other thing too is Michigan as a as a you know program or even as like a entity has always kind of held their nose in the air

like they're better than everybody. Like, oh, we're, we're, they kind of have brained themselves as a Ivy League school with legit athletic programs. Yeah. You know, we're better than you. We look down our nose at you. So I see the why people hate Michigan. Like, I get that.

But doesn't need to blow this up though. And no, like you said, it's not going to affect the way any of these guys are recruited. Because no. You can know the signs. You can know the play. you still have to execute and understand what's going on. And it's still in the, you know, it's still in the hands of the offense to be, you know,

proactive and the quarterback to manipulate with eyes and different things like that. Like, it's not, like, it's not run on paper. Like, these plays are not run on paper because, yeah, on paper you'd be able to perfectly plant people in every spot, but that's just not how it works. And I did that point. go ahead sorry no you go ahead because i just have one final point that

to that point like you still have to execute and then b like a lot of these teams that are alleging these crimes are alleging that they knew about it you know back in 2022 so if if as a team if you know your opponent's trying to steal your signs that actually becomes a weapon for you not against you You could totally screw them by simply changing your signs. Which to that point, did you see what I think it was the Purdue coach came out and said. I thought this was the most ridiculous part of the entire thing, what he said. He said that in a press conference, you know, it's been talked about every single Big Ten coach has been asked about it.

And I'm pretty sure it was the Purdue coach. It'd come out and said that I was worried about the same thing. of my players because we had to change our signs. Okay. Is that Luke Fickle that said that? He's the Purdue coach, right? No? Oh, I don't.

Isn't that? Who is it? We both rapidly Googling it. Ryan Walters. Oh, Schiff was at Wisconsin. What am I? Yeah, Fickles at Wisconsin. Yeah.

So I think it was Ryan Walters that came out and said it. And he, yeah, he said, I worried for the safety of my players because we had to change our signs like the week before. A, A, why you, like, you have this information. You knew, like, you on record, and everybody on record has said that they knew that this was happening. A, if you were going to change your signs, why would you wait until the week before? And B, I don't know, that just feels so discrediting to the players that what? They're not smart enough to take on a new game plan and, you know, like,

changing of signs a little bit that it's going to put them in danger of like what they're going to stand around in the middle of the field and like get clocked on the side like I just that that quote like set it off for me where I was like okay we've reached a point where this is so far gone and we're so beyond like actually talking about the issue and we're now just trying to implicate and further push for like bigger punishment and just like trying to drive home the point of like this is why they need to be punished. Yep. I, like, it just, like, it made me laugh.

It genuinely made me laugh because I thought it was just so absurd to, like, make this claim that you were worried about the safety of your players as if, like, this sign stealing is going to lead to, like, again, I don't even know how it would get to that point. Right. All right. Steve, let's move on. Let's get into the final topic of the day, which is,

going to be halfway point MVP discussion. Now, what I want from both of us is we're going to drop our five. If you had a ballot and you had to put five guys on the ballot, who would you throw on the ballot? Do you have your five already made? Yes. Is there any non-QBs on there? Yes.

Is it Tyree Kill? Yes. Okay. Cool. I didn't put him on mine just because he'll win offensive play. of the year for me. Right. I figured that was the case.

So I think that's worth thrown out there first. Tyreek, the only non-QB on Steve's ballot. Who else you got on there? I've also got Mahomes, Hertz, Lamar Jackson. And then the fifth one,

I toiled over. And I think right now, honestly, right now, I would, just for the sake of conversation, I would throw Christian McCaffrey in there as well. Oh.

So I think I would you had two non-QBs. Yeah, so I would have been burying the lead there. But yeah, I would have two non-QBs. I think this is the one, this is the year. If it were ever warranted to have non-QBs in this conversation, I think this year is a big one to have it. Gotcha. Okay, we had three of the same five.

I went with five QBs, obviously, as I told you. So that's what the difference is about. I went with Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, C.J. Stroud, and Jared Gough. Okay. I'll acknowledge Tyreek should be on that list. I just didn't for the sake of conversation. Yeah. We already spent a bunch of time on Tyreek Hill.

But yeah, so he'd probably bump Stroud off the list, to be honest. Make your case for CMC. I'll never ever put a running back in MVP discussion, but you can go ahead and make your case. And that's fair. I think that it's a big, my big reason for it is that I don't think that offense operates as well without what CMC brings to the offense. I think that his consistent production, his ability to, you know, get in the end zone schemed or not scheme consistently every game should not be discredited.

And I think that he's taken, I mean, he's taken that offense to a different level, like ever since he's come into it. And I think that this year, year with the rotating cast of, you know, people being hurt within the San Francisco offense. And I think Brock Purdy kind of coming back to Earth a little bit the last couple weeks. And yeah, and I think that McCaffrey's kind of been the consistent guy that's kept that train rolling and he keeps them on track. And I think that he's a big reason that offense has the multiplicity that it has and I think he changes the changes the way defenses

defend them with him in the game and I just think that his ability to be used within the past game in the run game is what helps drive shanahan's system a little bit yeah I think I might be wrong on this um just looking at McCaffrey and kind of what he brings to the table. He's on pace for 1,900 total yards from scrimmage and 26 touchdowns. I would say that's MVP, Gallaud. I don't know. These touchdowns and aren't in the conversation.

So obviously, he has to keep up this pace for the full season, but that's what we're talking about at the halfway point. Based on what he's done right now, I think you're right. I think he probably should be an MVP candidate. And I think that there's something to be said about the fact that he's one of, the few true like bell cow backs in the NFL like a guy that does not leave

does not really get spelled I mean he gets spelled here and there but like it's not it's not in a committee by any means and he maintains the workload week in week out and I don't think we've seen this I mean I know we haven't really seen this level of production consistently especially to start a season really since like ladenian Tomlinson like I mean he's the last he's really the last guy to do it in every facet of the game like

Christian McCaffrey is doing. And I think that that shouldn't be discredited, that he's able to do this in the NFL where now teams know that McAfrey's a big part of the game plan. He still works it and makes it happen week and week out.

Yeah, he leads the NFL in both rushing yards and receiving yards for a running back, which I would say is decently significant, Steve. Yeah. He's legit.

He's not only a belkow, he's a legit pass game weapon. It's fitting that McCaffrey would be the guy in the conversation because I'm as you know, I'm not super pro running back as far as what it means to a team, but he probably is the one guy that breaks the mold because he is a legitimate past game weapon.

Also looking at some of his other advanced metrics, I mean, super high explosive run rate, I shouldn't say super high, but high explosive run rate. A lot of yards on explosive run. his mistackles force rate is high it's not number one but it's basically top 10 for running backs if you set a certain threshold

his yards after contact per carry are also high like stuff rate is really good yes stuff rate's really good yeah he's got the fourth highest yards after contact per carry um I mean yeah dude's a stud dude is a stud in every way shape paper form. I think that's valid.

So I'll bump, I'm going to bump CJ Stroud off the list. Actually, I'll bump both Stroud and Goff for Tyreek and for CMC. So I concede my list to yours. I do. I mean, to your point of C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff,

I think that CJ Stroud want, I think it's worth a conversation. because one, I think that that's, those are two guys that not a lot of people are necessarily talking about in the MVP race. Now I think that, you know, golf was in it and like, you know, a dark horse, fun guy to talk about in the beginning of the season. I think that it's kind of gone to the wayside a little bit. You don't hear it as much just because his production, like in the Raiders game wasn't insane. He's, you know, they got blown out by the Ravens. that was a big, you know, dead point for golf.

But I think that, you know, he clearly, he's the guy that drives that offense and that, you know, there's still top 10 offense by almost every metric. And he's playing at a level. I think he's playing at probably the best level of his career from a standpoint of understanding the game and his ability to manipulate defenses and manipulate the way the game is run instead of, you know, back in Los Angeles when. it really was more of he was kind of the puppet within with McFay being the you know the master of the puppets there and it just like I think that I'd still think he should be in the conversation I think he'll get pushed out more and more as the season goes on just because of the way that offense runs and because of the way that golf operates the offense he's not you know to Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson like these guys that are necessarily. like making the most insane throws, great plays, things like that.

I think that he operates well within the offense, but he still operates the top 10 offense. Yeah. So the last few games, you know, he hasn't had his best games. So I think the last two, I should say. What I will say, though, is I think for the first time in his career, he's had multiple games of season where he's had to carry it all. And he's done single-handedly won them the game, flawless, performances. If he does, if he continues to do that and keeps, you know, if there's a couple

games throughout the season where he's got a, he's got to carry the team. I think he's in the conversation for sure. Do I think he'll ever win? No. I don't, I don't think that'll ever, I don't think that'll ever happen. I think, um, yeah, I think he probably, there's just going to be doubters for one because of his, his arc and how he got here. And then two, it's just, there's other, you know, going to be more productive players with better stats at the top as well. But You see what he's doing throw for throw on the field. It's nothing short of remarkable. He's definitely playing his best football ever.

As far as Stroud goes, Steve, I really like what I've seen from Stroud. Him and golf are probably the two QBs in the NFL that are throwing with anticipation better than anyone. They are literally creating windows with the way they're throwing the football. It's insane to watch. That said, Stroud has left a ton of meat on the bone. And this is why I'm okay with bumping him for now. Yeah. His advanced metrics, completion percentage over expectation is 13th.

Accuracy rate is 22nd. Catchable ball rate's only 30 seconds. There's only two quarterbacks worse than him in that regard. Off throw percentage is 29th. Hero throw rate 24th. So despite how good he looks and the number, the raw numbers are there, he has left a lot of meat on the bone. Sometimes, by the way, for the listeners,

when you're throwing the ball of anticipation, that's either going to make you look really, really good or really, really bad. If you have a slight miscommunication with your receiver, or if he runs his pattern a yard short and you're throwing in anticipation, that throw is going to look way off. Yeah.

The misses are going to look bad. It's just what it is. I mean, we've seen that with golf too. He'll throw a guy three yards before he's out of his break. And it looks like a bad miss, but the reality is he's just trying to throw into a window that's not yet there. probably some type of miscommunication.

I think when you adjust for the fact that Strout is throwing the ball downfield a ton, a lot of anticipation and he's throwing a, you know, he's got one of the highest A-Dots in the NFL. I think it starts to make sense why the accuracy rate is a little low, catchable ball rate's a little low. If he can bring some of those numbers up, I think he should be in the conversation, even though he's a rookie.

But I would expect him to kind of stay right where he's at, to be honest with you. Yeah, and that's fair. Texas fans are going to be freaking ecstatic for what they have. Yeah, yeah. I think that, you know, he's created a lot of discourse between, obviously, Panthers fans and Texas fans, Texans fans. But I think, I mean, the fact that he's a rookie and the way he's playing, it's fun to see because I think that so many people got caught up in where he came from,

which is coming from Ohio State and the narrative that was the narrative that you know wasn't necessarily wrong at the time it was you know like Ohio State quarterbacks hadn't really panned out in the NFL that well and to add to that Steve sorry not to cut you off but a good point on top of that is he he did a lot of the same things like some of the negative

the scouting report were very resembled Justin Field's scouting report Yeah. Or even Dwayne Haskins got a report. So yeah, I continue. Yeah, but it's cool to see because one, he's bucked that trend. And two, the thing that separated him was his ball placement and just the way he throws the ball. And seeing that come through in the NFL and still stand pat and be an asset to his game.

And it wasn't just he was throwing to three of the best wide receivers in college. like that, you know, it was him, or at least a big part of it was him and his ability to place the ball and his ability to see defenses in a way that a lot of college quarterbacks and quarterbacks couldn't see it. I just think that he throws one of the best balls in the NFL right now, in my opinion. It's one of the most catchable. The way he, when he's on and when he's able to place the ball, especially deep on a lot of those like outside the numbers throws and even across the middle. It's impressive and it's not something to be, you know, taken lightly, I think. Yeah, he's, he really is the mechanics, the technique, it's all so pretty from his drop to his base, you know, his lower half is just, it's always on point. Those arm mechanics, the repeatable mechanics that lend to throw for thorough accuracy.

And I know we talked about how his accurate ball rates low, but the repeatable mechanics are there. Like it's going to come, especially as they start to throw the ball in the short parts more. I think that's the deep throw stuff is something that's really holding his advanced metrics back. And it's why sometimes you have to apply context with this stuff. He, Steve, the other thing, too, is these deep throws are so not every deep throws created equally. The NFL standard for a deep throw is 20 plus yards downfield. The Texans take five or six deep shots a game. And I'm not talking 20 plus yards on field.

I'm talking 45 plus yards downfield. You are not going to hit on a lot of those. They hit on a couple of game, usually, one or two. But when you miss those, they look like bad misses. Like the ball's five yards out ahead or out of bounds. Right. Yeah, that's crushing his advanced metrics. But you have to put that in context.

I think C.J. Schro looks awesome. Yeah. I mean, the touchdown to take tell on the, it was a stop and go, hitch and go played. they were in Tampa Bay's side of the field and he did the he drops back and he does the shoulder fake and I thought it was one of the like coolest in rhythm throws that you'll see from a quarterback because it like the way he did his shoulder fake he literally gets down into a squat position and like rotate like rotates his shoulder and I just thought it was so cool to see that

rhythm and just I mean the ball placement was incredible but I just I just I just He's so, he is. He's just a very rhythmic thrower, rhythmic dropback guy. And it's, you know, we get so used to and we love seeing those out-of-structure plays from guys like, you know, Hertz and Lamar Jackson and Patrick Holmes. And that's not C.J. Straub's game. His game is to operate within rhythm. He's never been an out-of-structured guy.

But the way that he's able to manipulate defenses and the way he's able to get into a rhythm is what separates him as a, or over. Yep. Agreed. All right. So we spent a lot of time talking about the guys we're not giving the award to. We have our ballot of five. It's going to be Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, CMC, and Tyree Kill. I want you to pick your winner. Actually, I already know who your winner is, just because I know you. And I'll pick mine, and then we can discuss the winners. Oh, who's my one. Mark Jackson, didn't you? Yeah, of course. I know you did. See, I told you. That's awesome. This is a really tough choice for me.

I went with Patrick Mahomes, and I'll tell you why after we discussed Lamar Jackson. Because I do think this was close. I really wanted to give it to Lamar. But, yeah, give me your spiel on Lamar. For Lamar, it's just one, the game has evolved for him. His game has evolved. I think that he's becoming a better thrower. And I think that the offense is a big, big part of it.

But he's pushing the ball down the field. he's making a lot of throws that I think that people kind of chastised him for not making. Like he didn't take a ton of layups. And he was a guy that always pushed a ball down the field. But now he's just operating the offense well. And I think that he's finally in a system that fully captures what he's able to do. I mean, he's sitting right at the top of catchable ball rate this year. He's at 81.8% that's behind Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes.

His off-target throw. Behind who? Patrick Bomes. I'm kidding. I know. And it's fair. It's a fair point to make. But he's also making the big plays.

His hero throw rate is a 6.3%, which would be right up there. Yep. That leads the NFL. Yeah, for guys who have thrown, oh, no, sorry. Two is ahead of him. But two is the only volume thrower that's above Lamar Jackson. Right. And he's doing this all with created a better cast than Patrick Holmes for sure, but still not this elite group of past catchers.

And I think that just his knowledge now of when to run and when not to run has vastly improved the way this offense operates. It's back to where now I think that his legs are more of a weapon than they've ever been. then just because just because of the way he like now defenses can't key in on a scramble as hard because now he's not looking to run every time he gets out of the pocket he's picking and choosing his spots and I just think that what the raven I mean what the ravens are doing to top defenses in the NFL is insane and I think that overall you couldn't run the system they run you couldn't have the production that that Baltimore Ravens offense has without Lamar Jackson. Yeah.

He's a big thing for me, too. Another reason why I have Jared Goff and C.J. Stroud initially on my ballot was the turnover where you throw a percentage is insanely low, especially for Lamar Jackson. It's down 2.4%, which is eighth best in the NFL. Seventh best, if you throw Tyrod Taylor out, who hasn't played that much. Jared Goff is two and C.J. Stroud has three. so there's a good reason why I like those guys a lot, but he's taken care of the football,

which is, I mean, he's stumbled a lot, granted, but he has. The throw from a, from a, you know, quarterbacking standpoint, I feel like he's taking care of the football. And his stats could look, I mean, his stats would look even better overall if that Pittsburgh Steelers game goes a different way.

True. His deep ball throw rates insanely high, too. Dang. Yeah, he's a, 12.6%. Oh my, you guys might witness something that's never happened in the history of my 36 years on the earth. Me changing my opinion twice on one show.

I don't think that this might happen. And it also, I think that Baltimore is the best team in the NFL right now. And I think that Lamar, I think it's after this week, it's not as novel of an opinion. I want to stand by that I set it after the Detroit game. And I just I think that he's the engine that makes this offense and this team go. Man, I'm sitting here looking at the advanced metrics and putting everything in perspective. And I kind of, I'm starting to feel that like I should have stuck with Lamar.

Like, for example, Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in yards that have come from yards after catch. So he is relying on Jack more than any QB in the league. More than Tyson Badgant, who I once saw for the same freaking screen pass, four plays in a row, just literally like they were playing Madden. Left side, right side, left side, right side. But not kidding, that actually happened. That's a true story.

And Mahomes is getting more yards after catch than that guy. So that tells you a lot about the Chiefs offense and where it was at. The other thing, too, turnover with throw rate, Mahomes is like almost double what these other guys who've talked about is. You know, he does rank high and accurate ball rate, catchable ball rate, etc. Very low and off target throw percentage. So I do think there's some utility to what Mahomes is. The reason I wanted to go to Mahom, and this is all it comes down to, Steve,

the reason I went Mahomes over Lamar initially is because what Mahomes, again, is doing with the people he has to do it with is actually insane. Yeah. Rashi Rice is a good looking rookie, but he's a rookie. And he didn't have the pedigree of like a Zayflowers going one to one. Obviously, Travis Kelsey is arguably the best head end of all time. But after those two guys, and Rashi's only running 50% of the routes right now, the last few games. So he's only going half the time.

Justin Watson is a one-trick pony. Martez-Veld the scantling is nothing. Sky Moore is bad. Kare Deer, Sony's a good yards after catch guy. You can scheme him up, gadget him. He's being phased out of the offense almost. Yeah, exactly. It's crazy what Mahomes has done with nothing.

And I think that's why I was leaning his direction. That said, I do think you can make a legitimate case that Lamar is actually playing better. And you have to, ultimately, that has to be the deciding point. Like, yeah, what Holmes is doing with a bad supporting cast is exceptional. But is he playing better than Lamar Jackson? No, he's not. So I think Lamar's playing the best. So I think I'm pivoting.

I think I'm going Lamar Jackson here. I think you've swayed me. I don't know how this happened. That's a big day for me. I'm a guy who's pretty dug in on my. I know. Usually your heels are eight inches deep. Yeah, exactly.

I agree with everything you said about Patrick Mahomes, though. it's it it's a you know one of those like one a one B situations in my opinion like I don't think you're wrong if you pick either one right now but I just think that Lamar and their offensive output and just how well he's taking care of the ball passing the fumbles are that's still a thing and I think that's it is a part of the way they run the offense you're seeing two has had a couple of those too because they have so many moving parts and it's a lot of, you know, on the go reads, you know, RPO stuff like that that are like a little bit more complex compared to other teams that are kind of leading to some of these fumbles, but it still shouldn't

be taken away that, you know, he has turned the ball over in that area of the field. But just the way he's throwing the ball and the way he's running the ball efficiently, effectively, and making it more of a weapon than I think he ever has. I just think that he's, I think he's the MVP. I think he's, I think he's the MVP. All right, that's official.

First half, 2023 MVP goes to Lamar Jackson, offensive player of the year. I'm just giving it to Tyree Kill. No, no, you convince me on this too. CMC. I'm going to CMC. Oh, okay.

Does it change it? Go ahead. That's the thing. I think if Tyree Kill breaks the receiving yards record, it goes to Tyree Kill. If he doesn't, then I think goes to McCaffrey. True. That's a toss-up for me right now, actually. That's kind of crazy.

So, all right, Steve, we got to cut it there. I do want to send everyone, though, to data. com because you can still get a free look at the new coverage matrix tool, which I'm not even talked about on here, Steve, but it is a bad tool. Like bad as in bad. like it's a batty it's so good yeah um it's so bad it's good but yeah go on this check check out this tool if you haven't bought a subscription yet and then you go check this tool out and it still hasn't convinced you then you probably are 60 years old that's all i mean that

but that's not even true my dad is an avid subscriber and he uses the tool he makes all of his fantasy decisions using our stuff especially the new coverage matrix tool so please go check it out. It basically, it gives you a really easy look at how defenses are being deployed league-wide, how often they're using single high coverage, two high coverages, or sorry, middle-of-the-field open and middle-the-field closed, the actual coverage shells they're deploying. And then their performance metrics while using those coverages across the board makes it a really nice match-up tool. You could say, oh, Josh Allen's really great against cover three, and he's playing this team this week who, oh, they don't play cover three.

I guess that's probably not in Josh's favor. Anyways, long story short, it's a great tool to use for all things. Fantasy, betting, DFS. Please, please, please, go check it out. And with that said, Steve, we are out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.

Thank you.