Fantasy Football Daily - TreVeyon Henderson LEAGUE WINNER | Week 16 Fantasy Football Playoffs: Top 12 Players to Watch with Jacob Gibbs
Episode Date: December 20, 2025Fantasy Points’ 2026 Early Bird is live. Get the rest of 2025 plus all of 2026 at the lowest price we’ll offer all season. Take 20% off any Fantasy Points subscription when you lock in early. Thi...s deal expires on Super Bowl Sunday. Save 20% now, plus an extra 5% with code THEWORM. Theo Gremminger is joined by Jacob Gibbs for a Beyond the Box Score edition of Fantasy Football Daily, breaking down the top 12 players who can swing Week 16 of the fantasy football playoffs. The show opens with a big-picture debate on Trey McBride’s historic positional edge and whether he deserves early 2026 1.01 consideration, before diving into the surging Atlanta Falcons offense, Kyle Pitts’ resurgence, Bijan Robinson’s dominance, and whether Kirk Cousins can be trusted when it matters most. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ vibes stay scorching behind Liam Coen’s QB and RB whisperer run, with actionable takes on Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and the viability of Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange. The episode also covers TreVeyon Henderson’s post-bye eruption as a potential league-winner, Kenneth Gainwell’s PPR utility, the sneaky power of free-agent running backs, concerns around Brock Bowers and George Pickens, renewed optimism for Nico Collins, San Francisco’s playoff stack coming together, and Jameson Williams’ shifting narrative. Jacob closes with a bold Week 16 flag plant you won’t want to miss. Where to find us: http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy http://twitter.com/jagibbs_23 Join the Discord here: https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Podcast Transcription Here: https://podsqueeze.com/embedded/transcript/4mx8xKHXLumiPcFrPsCFMS Fantasy Points Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts #FantasyFootball #2025Rankings #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL #FantasyFootball #WaiverWire #Week14 #FantasyFootball2025 #FantasyPoints #NFLFantasy #FantasyAdvice #Sleepers #WaiverPickup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Week 16 is here.
We have two weeks left of the fantasy football playoffs.
Theo Greminger Fantasy Football Daily,
joined today by Ball Knower, big time ball knower, Jacob Gibbs.
We're going to help you try to identify some edges
that can help you win in the fantasy playoffs.
Can't get it wrong this week.
Jacob. This is single elimination football, but let's have a moment of appreciation.
Is Tray McBride the biggest positional edge pick that we've seen in quite some time?
Just completely lapping the field. Put up a monster, monster stat line in week 15 and has this
unbelievable looking schedule for the rest of the fantasy playoffs. I mean, yeah, I've had a hard
time thinking of one. Like, Kelsey comes to mind, of course. Honestly, like what CMC's
been able to do in some of these seasons, but really it's, it's been special what we've gotten
from McBride. I'm sure that we'll all dig into this. I'm excited to see Ryan Heath's takeaways
when you do some of the historical comps on, on this season and everything. And it's, it's been
like a perfect storm for McBride. Like that's, we, on Beyond the Box score, Dan Schneier and I did
flagplants for who we think are like the players who you, you know, you're going to have to have
had to get to the top, to get to the summit this year.
And he sent McBride, which was a pretty easy one, you know, but it was, it's the
schedule, it's Jacoby Preset, it's their defense seeming to have just quit.
It's Marvin Harrison, like, it's the running back's all getting hurt.
Like, it's everything coming together.
And on top of that, he's truly a special, special player.
And so, yeah, just an absolute monster for fantasy.
Yeah, it's a perfect storm for Trey McBride.
I said this to Scott Barrett on School of Scott.
we recorded yesterday, and I think one of the biggest, like, things to happen, sort of a sliding
doors effect of the entire fantasy football season was when Kyler Murray went down,
Jacoby Brissette had his opportunity, and then, like, you know, we saw Kyler Murray's season
end somewhat quickly after that, but what Jacobi Brissette's been able to do with this
offense is just remarkable. QB won every single week, and he's elevated,
McBride to this new level of play where like last year the the the catches were all there
but this year we've seen much more frequent spike weeks he's been the tight end one or the
tight end two on a weekly basis in so many weeks it's just unbelievable and then for him to
deliver this sort of scoring line in week one of the fantasy playoffs when every single analyst
under the sun has been circling week 17 against Cincinnati it's truly telling let me ask you
this, Jacob. What, like, what are the chances that we see Jacoby Burset as a bridge quarterback next
year in Arizona? I think it's not out of the question. Yeah, it makes sense to me the way that
he's played, that they might, they might just go to Brissette again, especially with this
quarterback class, and then the following one's supposed to be so much better. So I'm, I mean,
we're here for it, right? For fantasy purposes, we're definitely here for it. Yeah, 100%. 100%
with, and you bring up the positional edges.
I think that you nailed it.
It was, I'd have to go back to like Christian McCaffrey, like 2019, where he was 80, 90 points
ahead of the RB2 overall that season.
That was sort of like the one I would sort of circle, the last big monster Christian
McCaffrey season there.
Of course, he's had other monster seasons, but that was the one where he had one of the
highest scoring lines of all time.
I mean, this one.
Yeah.
Like this one, this happened.
right now is pretty much that, especially like Jonathan Taylor is kind of falling off.
And like, I think Jemir Gibbs is totally fine.
Last week was just a fluke, but still doesn't really matter if you lost, you know,
with Jemir Gibbs, whereas like CMC is just like an absolute lock for 20.
And then he has the access to more and more upside as this offense gets better and better
and healthier and they've got great matchups down the stretch.
I think he really is like basically that edge this year.
He's after 25 PPR points for game.
That's a great point.
And I think that, like, it was, it wasn't as pronounced because of the quality of Jonathan Taylor, because of at times the quality of Bijan Robinson.
And then most recently, Jemir Gibbs, Devon A. Chan. But A. Chan and Gibbs both had a tough, tough week in week 15 by their standards. So I think those guys will potentially bounce back here.
You have to think that Jemir Gibbs is going to give you another monster December game or two. A. Chan, it's interesting what's going on in Miami with.
with McDaniel talking about a potential quarterback change
and all that sort of stuff.
But you mentioned CMC, and you've got the Brock Purdy,
George Kittle, Joanne Jennings, Christian McCaffrey,
those four guys.
We've circled San Francisco as a team in the preseason
when the strength of schedule came out
and we tried to identify like those best ball matchups
we wanted to chase, that San Francisco Chicago game in week 17,
that was one that we very much were enthusiastic about.
Is it sort of all coming together for San Francisco here
to put up just monster numbers over their next two weeks
and help lead fantasy managers to championships?
Your thoughts of the way that the 49ers offense is looking right now?
Looks great, yeah, and the defense is not good, you know,
and they're playing warm weather games.
Like, it's all set up perfectly.
That's when we've been circling a lot beyond the box score
as we get near the end here is like George Kittle,
We had above Tyler Warren.
We got a bunch of pushback on that, obviously.
Who knew Daniel Jones was going to get hurt?
But even before that, I think it was trending in a really good direction for Kiddle,
where he's giving you huge upside with yardage and touchdowns.
It's just pretty unique at the position.
Obviously, CMC is doing his thing.
And now the Ricky Pierce all injury, it's like, this is perfect.
It's the perfect recipe.
You obviously don't want to see him get hurt.
He's a fun player, but it's like the target distribution just keeps getting more and more concentrated.
It's basically like three guys at this point.
And Purdy's playing pretty well.
We're going to talk about some quarterbacks today, a stat that I really like in terms of not necessarily, like, isolating quarterback play, but like how good is this offensive environment in terms of facilitating fantasy production is just simply catchable air yards.
And 200 is an arbitrary end point, but I use it as like, that was a really good game.
If you can produce 200 catchable air yards, some of the quarterbacks have, like, struggle to get there.
like CJ Stratt didn't get there until like week 12 Baker Mayfield hasn't really gotten there all year
and I'll give you the list there's only a handful of guys who even have multiple of these games
Purdy's one of it. Bertie has two games already over 200 air yards and he's only played like
five games or whatever you know so I feel really good about them down the stretch here
yeah me too I think specifically my question for you would be your trust level with
Joanne Jennings you mentioned Ricky Purcell being injured now so that's sort of
clears up a target share. But these start-sit decisions for fantasy managers in week 16,
week 17 are just so, so, so important. Sort of your trust level for Joanne Jennings. And I realize
that, you know, people are going to say Theo, you know, the guy caught two touchdown passes.
But there was only five targets there, three catches for 37 yards, ran pure on the touchdown.
And how about this week against Indianapolis next week against Chicago? Is he a player that you're
looking to cram into lineups, is it kind of team specific?
Everybody knows Kittle, everybody knows Christian McCaffrey, and then
Purdy, for most of you, it's a no-brainer.
I know I'm starting Purdy in a couple of spots.
Yeah, Jennings is interesting.
He's like one of the few receivers who offers like some semblance of safety.
The receiver position has been kind of an albatross this year.
But you look at Juan Jennings, and his expected fantasy point number has been
double digits.
seven of his last eight games, which is really rare consistency for the receiver position this
year. His first retarget rate's been 30% or higher in three out of the past four. It's been
28% or higher in every game since week seven except for this past game. It was down a little
bit. I think maybe they made a concentrated effort to kind of get Pierce all going. But I think
all things equal, it's because it's just these three guys that are like,
the main target earners on the team with with juan jennings and kittle and cmc he's pretty much locked
into 25 to 30 percent for three target rate maybe not a ton of downfield looks but he can score
a touchdown and give you that upside where you're going from like 10 to 16 or you know 15 to 21
or whatever yeah and this week's matchup is against indianapolis we won't have to worry about
anything with the weather it's going to be indoors what that's sort of nice this time of year there's
always these variables for these super cold weather games. Sometimes these things don't go our
way. But 49ers Colts, that game, we have the stability of good weather. And then week 17,
that game is going to be in San Francisco, I believe, against Chicago. Yeah, in Levi's Stadium
for the 49ers. So back-to-back games where we don't have to worry about the weather as well.
I think the 49ers, start them all, ride this wave. And I think there's going to be some real positivity
with Brock Purdy.
I know a number of people
have sort of brought up
the 49ers won't trade
Mac Jones in the offseason.
I think that's going to be
one of the bigger offseason
stories to watch out for
the comfort level
to move off of Mac Jones
as your high-end level backup
because of just this incredibly quality
play from Purdy running this offense
and the contract installation
that he has.
I think Jones,
the way this NFL draft class
is shaping out,
you could end up seeing a team
giving up like a second
and a fourth,
maybe even more than that for Mac Jones.
Let's take a quick break.
We come back.
We're going to talk about another quarterback
who's trending up in a major way
in Trevor Lawrence
and how confident is Jacob
in this Liam Cohen offense
continuing to just put it on people
in the fantasy playoffs.
All right, welcome back.
Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger,
with Jacob Gibbs.
Let everybody know about beyond the box score.
It's been a really, really great show for you this year, Jacob.
Talk about it a little bit,
where people can access it,
out these next couple weeks yeah beyond the box score i mean if you're here listening to this and i think
you might really like beyond the box score a lot of the stuff we're talking about today uh we've been covering
and trying to get under every single stone and try to understand you know some of these players
that we didn't maybe think were so good like and but they're performing really well you know
they're training the right direction like how much of that is due to the coaching how much of that is
due to all these extenuating circumstances um digging into the weather and everything like just
trying to, you know, truly like exactly what the name sounds like, give you all the context
that you need to help understand what's going on in the football field, whether that's
just sometimes for fun, or, you know, we do, you know, target some DFS, sports betting,
lineup setting, stuff like that as well. So like Ryan Heath, the fantasy points, comes on
every Thursday and has been helping get a better, get our heads wrapped around matchups,
better, different matchup angles and stuff like that. So, yeah, it's,
three days a week. It's on FFT Fantasy Football
Today. You can check us out on
YouTube. We have live chats and we love to interact
with people there. So yeah, give it a look.
It's been a fun season. Yeah, highly,
highly recommend all of Jacob's work and
obviously Ryan Heath. We love seeing him on there as
well. We talked about
Trey McBride. Let's
talk about another player who put up a monster
week. The Jacksonville
Jaguars, specifically
Trevor Lawrence, but
also like sort of a player
that there hasn't been enough hype about this.
week because Lawrence put up this historically great quarterback performance, but also Travis
ETN completely locked in as a fantasy asset. Liam Cohen is the quarterback whisperer,
the running back whisperer, the team whisperer. He's the real deal and the Jaguars are trending
up. Yeah, Liam Cohen and Ben Johnson were two of my absolute favorites going into the year.
Clint Kubiak. I was really curious to see how these guys would pan out, especially the two
head coaches because it's not you know it's a little bit more complicated than like just being the
opposite coordinator and they've really risen to the occasion like it's been so cool some of the most
like profound impacts that we've seen in the NFL have been like new coaches like new england
um and then these two instances too where it's like not only has it been great for fantasy but
the real life success has been really cool to see especially here in jacksonville with Trevor lawrence
who has been through you know the coaching carousel is in his fifth or sixth year now like a pretty
much everybody's out on Trevor.
I have, like, even I have been, like, one of the staunchest, like, wanting to believe
in Trevor, people out there, but I, by faith, honestly, wavered.
The more I dug into it, this offseason with all the historical comparisons and everything
and just watching the film, like he didn't feel like he progressed that much.
And so he's kind of like Caleb Williams, where there's, there are clear limitations
to their game, there's clear things that can be frustrating if you get stuck on certain
aspects of their game. But both of these coach has been Johnson and Liam Cohen have really
helped work with what they have and accentuate the strengths and really, really build the
run game up. And especially in Jacksonville, that's been impressive because they don't have
the offensive line talent that Chicago has. But still, they've been a really effective run game.
And so Liam also, Liam has also brought in all the screen game stuff that was working so well in
Tampa. It hasn't been quite as effective in Jacksonville, but still he's doing it a lot. And so there's
some, some target insulation for ETN. It's been a bit inconsistent week to week in terms of his
targets. But this past week, we see three receiving touchdowns, you know, like that isn't something
that was happening for him much with previous regimes. But remember at Clemson, he was a really
electric receiver, you know, like I thought that was going to be part of his fantasy profile as a pro.
We just hadn't seen it yet. So for Trevor, I've told you about the catchable.
air yards. I want to tell you this, that, because it's kind of crazy. He's QB3 in catchable
air yards on the year behind only Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. And if you look at games,
the number of games with 200 or more catchable air yards, you've got Justin Herbert and
Caleb Williams, each have three, Drake May and Jordan Love each have four. Dak
Prescott has five. And then Lawrence is next, the only one below Stafford. Lawrence has six. Stafford
has eight he's insane um but that's that to me is just like it speaks to the consistency of this
offense and consistency is never something that we could attribute to Trevor's game you know like
it's always been a problem that we run into whether it's you know his struggle to like
get through his reads and find people that he needs to and get off of things just clinging to things
a little bit too long and taking sacks whatever it is struggling against pressure it's been
something that's killed drives and if you are running into that a lot
then you're going to have more volatility game to game.
But I think Cohen is, that's the most impactful thing he's done,
is really clean that up and helped with the processing.
And so we're seeing this where it's just consistently,
like basically every game,
you're getting 150 to 250 catchable air yards.
And so that even this weekend match against Denver has me feeling like
maybe you can trust some of these players as scary as that sounds.
Yeah, I mean, the Denver matchup is one we usually want to avoid.
there's a counter argument that we just want to roll the hot hand
and you can't sort of get away from this sort of proficiency.
I think a lot of people benched Jacoby Berset last week
and he ended up delivering with like the three touchdown passes
end up being like a fringe QB1.
I think this is a matchup where it's scary,
but if Jacksonville can hold up against the pass rush,
I think they can put up points in this one.
ETN completely locked in.
It's a difficult matchup,
but the fact that things are opening up for him as a receiver
maybe that's a trend for this offense, and it's something that we continue to see heading into the NFL playoffs. Jacksonville is also 10 and 4. They're a live dog in this one. Denver playing for the AFC number one seed. This is a really, really fun game all around. So we're way more confident in Trevor Lawrence. I mean, it's complete narrative shift in the second half of the year. He's QB7 on the season in quarterback points per game. Travis ETN, complete narrative shift from last season. He's
nearly doubled his points per game from last year was like eight point something last year.
He's up to nearly 16 points per game.
My question for you would be the wide receivers here.
Your thoughts on what you've seen from Jacoby Myers since he's come over.
And last week we saw BTJ with a touchdown grab.
Your thoughts on BTJ over the next two weeks sort of continuing to not necessarily be
where we thought he was the beginning of the year, but stabilizing and offering the potential
to put up a spike week, consideration for fantasy lineups.
Yeah, I've been kind of pounding this BTJ drum for a few weeks now,
and everybody hates it.
But I do feel like he's, I think that we can kind of throw out the beginning of the year.
Obviously, like, that feels like selection bias.
But, like, they were asking to do different things at the beginning of year than they are now.
And the offense was a lot more, it was finding its footing at the beginning of the year.
They were trying to do something really hard with Travis Hunter with having him play both ways and everything.
And I feel like Jacoby Myers has been a good stabilizing force filling that offensive role.
The Hunter was asked to fill.
Trevor's playing better.
The run game is working and everything.
And everything is just like more cohesive.
And BTJ doesn't, he's not being asked to do as much of it over the middle stuff.
Also, some of his struggles was Wild Britain Strange was out.
And I think him being back helps to where you've now got two dependable targets over the middle.
And so you can basically just have BTJ weigh on the outside.
And we know that he can do that.
And Trevor is delivering accurate throws down the field.
So can you trust it?
It's a volatile equation, right?
If you're getting a lot of downfield targets, especially with BTJ,
who doesn't, I guess, maybe have the most dependable hands is basically how I would say it, you know.
So I don't know if you can trust it.
It's pretty much any of these, like, deep threat only guys.
are hard to trust.
But it's in a good offense with a quarterback who's playing at a high level.
And it might not matter if you can trust that he can take anyone play and make your weak.
You know, we know B2J has that in him.
So that's kind of where I've arrived is like, I don't know if he can trust it,
but there's very few receivers that I think you could trust.
Jacoby Myers is one of them, you know,
where it's like kind of like Juan Jennings is kind of a lower upside but higher floor equation.
But there's not that many of those guys.
Most of the receivers are pretty dicey propositions at this point.
Yeah, I think that's a great way of putting it. Myers offers you a ton of safety.
BTJ doesn't offer you that, but he does offer you upside and the chance that he can get loose for a long one that could potentially win you your week.
You know your matchup better than we do. A lot of times this time a year, if you're maybe a team won as a sixth seed last week, maybe you're a team with a buy week.
Maybe you have a huge edge in sort of the projections. You can get by with using some of the floor guys.
but if you're chasing upside, you have to swing for the fences in single elimination fantasy football,
and certainly BTJ will be one of them. Myers, I've just been really impressed with ever since he came over there.
Love the fit with Liam Cohen, this offense. They seem to really, really value him.
A huge shift from him in the production he had in Vegas versus what he's had in Jacksonville recently.
What a tremendous trade. Things really, really worked out for them acquiring him.
And the team is, again, trending up heading into the playoffs.
Let's talk about Atlanta.
Are we going to trust Kirk Cousins in week 16?
I start looking through the streaming quarterbacks,
and Cousins looks like one of them that I'm interested in.
You have last week the Kyle Pitts explosion,
and love to hear your opinion on that one.
Bejohn Robinson playing an exceptional level of football,
and Kirk Cousins is targeting him at a high rate,
and we're keeping a candle burning for Drake London,
never say never, that he comes back this week.
Your thoughts on this one, Jacob, plus matchup against Arizona.
Yeah, this Arizona defense has been one of the best to attack.
So I do feel sort of optimistic about Kirk Cousins.
You know, the underlying stuff is good.
If you check out Fantasy Points data, they've got Kirk Cousins as the third
quarterback on the list of 38 qualifiers, third in highly accurate throw rate on
throws of Tenermore Air Yard.
So if you watch him, there's still some limitation,
driving the ball.
There's some throws that he turns down because he can't quite make.
But, like, when he's choosing to throw it, he's been highly accurate.
He's ninth overall, not just on throws of 10 and more air yards.
But I brought it to 10 and more areas because I think that's interesting.
He's been able to push the ball down the field with some accuracy when he chooses to do that.
Another cool stat on him is his top games this year in terms of catchable air yards
are he got 227 this past week, which I gave you that list of 200 plus, you know.
that's a really good number for where it feels like we're at with Kirk Cousin's career, right?
He's averaging 152 in games that he started, 152 catchable air yards.
So for reference, that's like top 12 if it was over the course of the full year.
That would be just the head of like Jared Gough, Baker Mayfield, well behind Lawrence and some of those players we discuss.
But pretty dang good for Cousins, better than Michael Pinnock was giving us.
And at this point, I feel fine going to pits.
We've been talking about him for four or five weeks now,
like I'll be on the box score.
It's what we saw last year when Drake London was out and Cousins was in,
where they use him in pre-snap motion and all these ways to get him moving horizontally,
which is great.
I do wonder if London comes back what the role might be,
but I think just based off the coach speak,
they're feeling really good about where they're at with pits and how he's playing.
And so we might see them continue to design stuff to him.
We've also seen before London play games where he's playing through an injury,
it seems like, where he's not maybe quite his full self or he's even sort of a decoy.
When I heard the London news initially and heard the coach speak on it and everything,
I was pretty nervous that we were going to see him at all again this year.
And that's still kind of how it feels to me.
But maybe he comes back.
That would be great for me.
we'll see but I overall yeah I feel great about Bijon
feel fine about Cousins when we looked at streamers this week
I said if you get Stroud that's probably your best bet CJ Stroud
but he's only available in like 30% of leagues or something so
you're probably looking at Kirk Cousins is the top guy yeah it's interesting
the London one it keeps feeling like there's this segment of people
who think they're just going to shut them down for the year but my counter argument
would be why haven't they already I feel like there's a little part of this
coaching staff that wants to get them back out there that week
17 matchup against the Rams, that's a potential high scoring game. This week's a potential
high scoring game. So sort of never say never. But the way that cousins treated Pitts last
week, it's hard to see him getting away from it. Three touchdown catches, just absolutely
insane. And just a reminder, Kyle Pitts is going to be a free agent. The timing could not have been
more fortuitous for Pitts to put up this sort of numbers to end the season. It'll be very, very
interesting to see where Pitts ends up next year. I think there's going to be a significant market
for him. A lot of teams remember him as a prospect. They think I can do a lot with this guy
and he could be an impact player in the passing game. I'm not sure where he'll end up,
but I think this could be a really, really fun offseason storyline. We could be really excited
about Kyle Pitts all offseason long. And certainly, Bejohn, what a year for him. The receiving
ability he has is just exceptional, the two-way ability.
completely locked in asset.
You mentioned C.J. Stroud, another player who I know you were very bullish on,
enthusiastic about when we podcast together in the summer was Nico Collins.
61 targets over his last seven games played.
We saw his first two touchdown score game of the season this past week.
The target volume was low, but it didn't matter.
He's an absolute alpha on the outside.
And it seems like this offense has figured out a lot of things with him that we weren't
necessarily seeing to start out the year, confidence level in Nico Collins and his ability
to be a league winner right now? Yeah, I feel good about it. See, Des Stroud has played better.
Two of his three highest catchable area yardage numbers have come over the past three games.
Week 15 was not one of those. Week 15, it was extremely low average depth of target,
and so the underlying volume stuff doesn't look that good for Nico and for a lot of these
other players, but still, Nico is like the guy.
when he gets down there and scoring distance.
And he's the guy all over the place.
He's really, really hard to stop.
So this feels good.
At their by week, which was week seven,
I was actually starting to get pretty dang nervous about Nico,
because I love the guy to death.
I'm probably overexposed to Nico Collins and fantasy.
And it just wasn't feeling the same.
New offensive coordinator,
Stroud wasn't playing very well.
The offensive line, that felt the same.
And that was a problem.
And the way that they were utilizing Nico,
it was like the offensive line was making,
it really hard to get him the ball.
And so his first retarget rate before the buy was at 27%, which was like way lower than
it's been in the past.
And that got me pretty nervous.
But since then it's been a lot better.
It's 30% since then.
And he's hit 27% or higher in six out of eight games, like this past game where it was just
weirdly low, actually brought the number down.
But if we're getting up in that 30% number and the offense is also playing better than
it was last year and has at times this year, then I feel pretty good.
league winner. I just don't quite trust the Texans enough to say that, but like it's definitely a
possibility. We know Nico can pop off. Yeah, that's the thing. When it comes to Collins,
it's that ability to put up a 25, 30 point week. And just the consistency that we've seen,
like you said, over the second half of the year. So maybe not quote unquote, the league winner,
but a player that if you have in your lineup, you feel like you can get a top five wide receiver
scoring week potentially for back-to-back weeks. So big narrative shift from Nico Collins this year.
You love to see it. And I think he's sort of solidified himself that his draft capital next year
might not be quite as high as it was this year at that one-two turn. But I think he's going to
settle in somewhere in the late second round, two-three turn at the floor. He's just such a consistently
good fantasy asset on the outside. And there's just few alpha wide receivers like him in the NFL
today. You love to see a big physical Nico Collins touchdown grab. It's just an awesome
site. Let's take one more quick break. And let's talk about when we come back, a potential new
cheat code for fantasy managers heading into the offseason. All right. So the player I wanted to talk to you
about was Kenneth Gainwell. But Kenneth Gainwell sort of is part of a big like discussion here where
We've seen now back-to-back years where simply just attacking free agent running backs
has been a cheat code for finding ADP wins.
Last year, it was at, like, the top of the food chain.
Guys like Saquan Barclay, Derek Henry, Josh Jacobs, and for that matter, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard,
all of those guys were ADP winners last year.
Barkley, Henry, Jacobs really helped influence fantasy football leagues.
performances from them. Then this year, we've continued to see it on sort of the lower end.
Javante Williams has been terrific. The return on investment you got from drafting Jvante in like
the ninth, 10th, 11th round has just been fantastic. He's consistently put up strong numbers for
fantasy football. J.K. Dobbins started out the season very, very well, gave you a ton of running
back utility. And then over the second half of the year, RICO Dowdell, one of the best waiver
wire pickups at the running back spot. And also Kenneth Gainwell, one of the best waiver wire
pickups at the running back spot. Gainwell was sort of buried by fantasy managers. No one
drafted him. People were on Caleb Johnson if you weren't on Jalen Warren. But if you look at Gainwell's
performances over the last month of the season, excuse me, the last five weeks of the season,
running back 5 in week 11, running back 9 in week 12.
Then work 13 sort of came back to Earth against Buffalo.
But the last two weeks, running back 12 overall, running back 9 overall,
he's been a PPR cheat code, six catches or more in four out of his last five weeks.
Gainwell's looked really good.
So your thoughts on Gainwell and thoughts of embracing new faces in new places next year
and attacking free agent running backs?
I'm really intrigued by the free agent running back thing when you, when I saw that on the show shoot,
I was really curious what that was. But yeah, we've had some huge hits lately. I feel like we've all
been sort of trained to like avoid these veteran cheap signings, you know, like Giovante Williams
and the types. But it was a huge hit this year. So that's something to think about more for sure.
I'm glad that you brought that up.
As far as game, oh, man, yeah, it's just been nuts.
Like, he's been extremely good.
Like, he's run well, well enough that they sometimes will give him, you know,
some early down work, some drives and stuff like that.
They'll even, you know, keep him in the red zone and stuff like that.
And then also he has this built-in receiving role where the target shares of 26%, 19%, 18%, 18%,
26%, and four of us past five games.
The lowest was 8%.
Like that's really, really, really good for the running back position.
The only one who's getting that type of a target share is CMC.
But because we're on this weird Steelers team that has like no pass-catching options,
like Jono Smith hasn't become a thing.
So there's like who are the short yardage targets?
Like Washington, they're other tied in.
Like that's pretty much it.
It's him and Gainwell.
And Gainwell is the easier one to just dump off to.
Rogers has loved doing that.
So I feel like we're pretty much.
much just locked into like, unfortunately for me, because I've got a ton of Warren,
Gainwell being the better running back for fantasy right now as Warren's kind of
battled through a few things at the end of the year here. And they're, and they're content
using both guys. Yeah, it's, for me, it's, it's, it's super interesting the way it's gone.
It's sort of like the Matthew McConaughey, Interstellar meme, Jalen Warren drafters,
looking at Kenneth Gainwell's weekly target share and yelling, no, no, no, that's
supposed to be my guy. But yeah, it's this, this confidence level that Aaron Rogers has in him
and also with the lack of pass catching weapons and the fact that Gainwell is just a good
receiver. He's a reliable receiver out of the backfield. So he's a PPR compiler, but it's landed
absolutely perfectly well. And also just to a credit to Arthur Smith, Arthur Smith's been a coach
that's been able to just extrapolate running back fantasy scoring out of guys that we're not necessarily expecting it.
The Corderole Patterson season, the Tyler Algear, 1,000 rushing yard season,
and now the Kenneth Gainwell PPR scam season.
So everything's sort of playing itself out.
And when you look at the Steelers schedule, they play Detroit this week on the road in Detroit.
There's potential not only for game flow to go in Gainwell's direction, but also for
garbage time if the Lions can get off to a significant lead in this one and put it on the Steelers,
there's a lot of sort of situations here. Then you've got Cleveland next week in a game in
week 17 where you like Gainwell's chances in that as well. So I sort of have a trust level in
Kenneth Gainwell. I realize we've seen what the floor can look like in that Buffalo week,
but you have to sort of ride the wave here. And when people say it's a floor play,
Gainwell has those two monster weeks this year, 31-pointer and a 29-pointer, and he scored 20 points this past week.
So, I mean, what's not to like here?
Your confidence level in using him these next two weeks.
Yeah, I've got him as a top 20 running back this week.
And that's kind of where he's been for me is like top 24 for like a month now.
And every week I'm shocked that consensus has him is like writing back 35 or whatever.
It's muscle memory, muscle memory from a month.
from rankers out there. They don't want to rank up high.
Yeah. I get that there's like a floor that you could worry about or whatever, like,
that it could drop out because he's not like the every down back, but like there's plenty of
every down backs that have got a really scary floor, like Brees Hall, Ashton Genty, you know what I mean?
Like I've, I've come to a point where I'm just basically ranking him ahead of Ashton Genty.
And Ryan and I argue about that every week on mastering batchups, but it's just like, I don't want
to start these guys, you know? Like, Gainwell, I don't ask.
actually think as far as that scary with the way the targets are going.
The concern is that Pittsburgh's offense could bottom out and the targets might not be
there.
You know what I mean?
Like it might be like two targets, three targets, something like that if it's a really bad
offensive game for Pittsburgh.
What I'm saying is you can run into that with pretty much any of these running backs.
And then there is some ceiling too.
I mean, he's not quite Trevion Henderson ceiling or whatever, but there is some ceiling.
So I feel pretty good about him every week, especially in a week like this against
Detroit.
You brought up Gentie.
Let's talk about Gentie and Brock Bowers.
Are we considering benching them?
Are we considering benching them this week?
I mean, they play Houston Texans.
Houston Texans defense has been lights out.
They've allowed one single QB1 performance this year was to Jacoby Brissette.
They've been one of the best fantasy defenses in general.
Or is there a chance that the garbage time, the game flow is,
sort of going to dictate that Bowers and Gentie will get their way through touches in the second
half. I mean, this is a scary thought. The idea of benching Brock Bowers at a one-off
position like Tide-end is sacrilege. I don't even want to think about it, but it needs to be
addressed. Yeah, we've arrived at a special point in the season where it's like,
Brock Bowers or Colby Parkinson, what are we feeling this week? Like, what are you talking about?
It's not good. They can't, they can't facilitate functional.
offense like it's i mean they're putting up historic lows like any given week it's it might be a
new historic low type of game in some facet and it's just like yeah i don't want any part of it um
so gentie has been outside of the top 24 basically two three four straight weeks or something
like that um for me and bowers i've been all right putting up higher um in that range
titan is obviously worse than running back and so it's not as big of a deal if you only get
you know five six seven points or whatever um this week i i would probably i know fanning and like buffalo
has been tough against tight-ins i'd probably rather start harold fannin junior you can make an argument
for a lot of other players too like darren waller if you want to go for more upside and stuff like that
because it's like how does bowers even get you to a really good game like um he's so good that
maybe he can break off a big play on his own but at this point it's like you're going against
Houston, who is a fundamentally sound defense and knows that you're the only threat, really.
Like, you and Ash and Gentier are the only threats.
And so they're just waiting and waiting for you to get the ball and swarming you.
I don't really see how you even create an explosive play in that environment.
I feel really bad about him, man.
Yeah, it's a terrible situation.
I think it's team dependent for you.
I know I have one Bauer spot, a big spot that I got to use him.
There's another spot where I'm considering.
It's a Trey McBride Bauer's team.
I know that's a humble brag.
It's FFPC Dynasty team.
So I don't need to use him at tight end.
Do I put him in the flex, even in tight end premium?
I probably will end up doing it begrudgingly,
but I'm not feeling confident about it whatsoever.
We talked about Gentie.
Gentie's an interesting conversation discourse for the offseason
where I think when we look back on it,
we're going to say that there was a lot of positives
he was able to accomplish as a fantasy asset
despite being in like this ridiculously awful situation.
So let's talk about a rookie running back
that we're really excited about the situation
and the way he's trending.
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The post-by-week production and usage for Trayvion Henderson was really, really strong.
The home run hitting ability from Ohio State has completely translated to the NFL level.
Not only one big long touchdown, but he had a second.
one in this one. The Patriots lose to Buffalo, but a big win for Henderson
managers. Sort of the fear of the rugpole with Romandre Stevenson wasn't there.
Stevenson's involved, but it's Henderson's the guy there. Your thoughts on what you've seen
from him this season. I mean, this is going to be a player, Jacob, that we're going to be
talking about just how high do we push him in 2026 rankings. It's going to be pretty damn high.
Oh, yeah. Yeah, I feel really, really good about Henderson. So I'll start by saying,
I mean, before I get people too hyped up, Baltimore's defense worries me a little bit,
where they're not maybe quite as susceptible to some huge plays and leakiness and stuff like
Buffalo's.
And we could even get a weird game where Baltimore plays well, and the Patriots are playing
from behind, which seems to be, based off of what we've seen most recently from New England,
seems to be the most likely failed situation for Henderson as if they're playing from behind,
then I think we've seen more Ramandre Stevenson.
so remandre had a much higher snap rate than henderson again this week um but i think that was
mostly empty snaps where he was past protecting um in the second half this is an instance
you know my the podcast is beyond the box score this is one where it's like even further it's like
beyond the advanced stats and everything um with henderson and in a lot of different ways here so like
snap rates and stuff like that is kind of like the next layer beyond the box score and it's
important but then like i go and watch the game and it's like they're being so intentional with
getting Trevian on the field.
And it's something they haven't been doing that much in the past.
So the very first carry goes their Montre.
Montre gets his start.
And then the very next play, they bring Trayvion onto the field to get him like an outside look.
And I was just like, okay, that's cool.
Like right away first drive, we're going to him on the second play.
Then they get down in the red zone of that first drive and it's Travion who's in.
Drake May scores on the RPO, but Trayvion's in on the field, I think, from the six-yard
line or something like that.
he gets another red zone carry later in the game like he was actually getting those looks ahead of remandre
um there was another driver was like mandre started the drive but then travion came in immediately on
the second play because they designed something to get him on the outside where it's like coming out of
the by they're intentionally getting stuff for him to try to get him a runway um and it's not just like
he's kind of the backup running back in the past we've seen remandre be out there for whole drives and stuff like
that. And so I was a little worried when I saw, I think it was 67% snap rate for Amanda.
I was a little bit worried that it was going to be a bad again. But then I wouldn't watch
the game. And it was not that way at all. They were very intentional with getting Treve on the
ball and obviously ends up with way more carries. And then the other thing is like, you know,
beyond the advanced stats is like you might look at this game and see the Trayvon had a ton
of yards before contact and think, you know, that maybe it's something kind of fluky.
You just had like some big holes or whatever. That's him, man. Like that was so much of that was
him. I feel like his vision and his pacing and tempo is showing up much, much better as the year
goes on. And he just does stuff where it's like, nobody else is doing that. Armandre sure is
hell ain't doing that. But like the two touchdowns, both of them, the first one was the 36-yard
touchdown or whatever wasn't anything like exceptional. But it was good timing and tempo and everything
through there. But the second one we reverse his field is just like, there's very few players who
can do that. And I think the more of that that he shows us and shows New England, the more we're seeing
them be like, this is a weapon. This is the only thing in our offense that gives us this
explosive playability. And when he hit that one to go up 21-0 on Buffalo, it just, it felt so
impactful. Obviously, they don't end up winning the game because it's, you know, Buffalo is really good
and Josh Allen and everything. But like, in that moment, it's like, this is why you got to get this guy
in the field because it adds this extra level of volatility and variance where you can just, you know,
turn a two-score game into a three-score game. Just one play, he can just like do that. And all of a sudden,
close on the ropes you like you guys have them on the ropes because of this one player he's really
special i feel yeah i mean if you look at some of the backs over the last couple years that
have made huge fantasy impacts the jameer gibbs devon a chan james cook for that matter
they all sort of have what henderson has with this explosive high value touch big playability
where you can just hit that home run and i think henderson next year could just be exceptional with
it we've seen sort of the leaps that guys like gibbs have taken
I think Henderson's right there.
So people hated the hyperbole last year of Jamir,
this is the next Jamir Gibbs, Patriots draft Jamir Gibbs.
But fantasy-wise, this might be the closest thing we've seen since Gibbs.
So I'm super excited about this one for Henderson.
And I'm really excited to put him in my lineup this week and next week as well.
He is absolutely trending up.
And it feels like a player that's going to have a big moment in the NFL playoffs as well.
and there's always this sort of recency bias
that carries its way to fantasy football.
The NFL playoffs might raise Henderson's ADP
like three, four spots, Jacob.
You could just see it,
him ripping off a big one in a national TV audience.
Let's finish the show by talking about
two wide receivers sort of heading in opposite directions.
What's going on with George Pickens
back-to-back weeks of lower production
after an outstanding season?
Can he get things together?
What's your confidence level for Pickens?
over these next two weeks.
Terrified.
I drafted or I traded for a lot of pickings.
Probably the player I traded for the most in Dynasty this year.
And the plan was always to like, let's get to the off season and then decide what we
want to do.
Like maybe we sell off about half of these, you know, me and my brother do it together.
And like, I feel so bad about it, man.
It's so weird.
The vibes are so weird.
And you just don't, I don't know.
I feel like when there's smoke is fire and you don't get this very often in the NFL,
where it's stuff like this, where national broadcast, people,
are talking about it during the game and everything, and you get weird stuff,
even coming out from DAC about it and stuff, and it's just like, I don't know, man.
This is, this is so clearly his opportunity, like, just if he can lock in through this season,
this is so clearly his opportunity to, like, cash in big, and we're having these lapses
in the end of the year, and that just gives me no confidence at all.
So, like, week to week, at this point, absolutely no expectation as to what you're going to
get from Pickens.
I'm ranking him outside of the top 20 receiver, which sucks, because he would.
was locked in as like a top five or six guy from each week.
I mean, that's a stunning ranking for Jacob to say that this week against the Chargers
in Dallas.
And then that Christmas Day game against Washington, that felt like a game where when you
looked at the schedule six weeks ago, that could be a 30-pointer from George Pickens.
Fantasy managers could win their league with him.
Now you've got to sort of measure starts-it decisions.
For most fantasy managers, it's still sort of a, if you got here with Pickens, you're probably
playing them you don't have enough options to pivot off of him um but yeah it's certainly lower your
expectations and he's been such a mercurial guy where you you just hate seeing it this time a year
uh really really a difficult one and a tilting name one player though to kind of going to jack's not
going to 20% 25% first three target race he's past two games those are like his lowest since like
the first two months of the season and do you think that's that's a specific like that's something
that could flip the script this week against L.A.?
I mean, it's hope casting.
If he shows up, sure.
But I feel like it's just kind of clear what's going on.
It's like he doesn't feel like he's presenting a trustworthy target.
And so, Dax's like, well, I know CD's doing it.
And honestly, Ryan Flora and I was busting his ass too.
So like I'm going to look at him, you know, like I don't really feel good about going to you.
It's just what it looks like.
Wild times, man.
Absolutely wild times and scary times.
let's cleanse the palate here.
Jameson Williams, absolutely cooking, the narrative shift this year.
I love bringing this up to guys who maybe weren't into him.
Scott Barrett, I've tried to talk about him every week on School of Scott recently.
But your thoughts on Jameson Williams, we have the two zeros.
But if you take the zeros out, this has been a player that's been a, like a,
he's like a top six wide receiver.
And he's a wide receiver won, despite the really low scoring weeks.
Last week, I thought it was a wonderful sign.
We saw him put up a massive week with Almond Ross St. Brown having season highs and catches, targets, receiving yards.
Jameson Williams looks fantastic.
Yes, he does.
Feel good about it and pretty good spots here to end the season.
The volume has been great.
So three of his four highest first three target rates have come over the past three weeks, up to 44% a few weeks ago in week 13.
love to see, and that was obviously
like Amon Ra factoring in there,
but like the fact that they're willing to go to him
in such a huge way, I think,
and that we're seeing that kind of lock in here
at the end of the season.
You got to feel good about it.
Of course, the week 12 game was brutal.
And I think in theory,
that kind of thing could happen at any time with JMO.
So like I've said a million times here,
like wide receiver feels pretty dicey.
And that's because even players like him
who are like probably a top eight
guy on paper or something like that, top 10 receiver on paper each week, there's a very real
floor that exists. But the role since Dan Campbell was taken over has felt like it's much
more built around getting him rolling, getting him horizontally breaking routes where he can
run, getting him more and more of these hitch routes where he was one of the most effective
receivers last year that that hitch route rate has spiked since Dan Campbell took over. So I feel
pretty good about him. We feel good about the offense overall. This is one of the best units to be
attached to at the end of the year here, I think. Yeah. And Jameson Williams now is like,
you just feel so confident where there was weeks where you didn't want to start him at the beginning
of the year. Certainly the loss of Sam Laporta helped tighten everything up, but I think the quality
of the play here. And also, only 24 years old, it's just a player really coming on to his own. Detroit
wisely gave him that contract this past off season.
completely, completely locked in.
This week again with Pittsburgh,
and then next week against Minnesota,
both of those games,
a ton of fantasy managers need the lines
to put up numbers in those ones.
And we love it.
We love single elimination fantasy football.
If you can't get stoked about
playoff fantasy football,
then you're playing the wrong game.
This is just an awesome time of the year for us.
Jacob, give me one sort of hot take, bold prediction,
or one flag plant,
a player that you were really,
excited about a big prediction you have sort of for this week or for the fantasy playoffs in
general. So yeah, I said that Dan and I on Beyond the Box Corps did our flag plans. It was three
weeks ago for who we thought were going to be the player you needed to have to win. And Dan's
was Tram McBride. I went a lot riskier. And I went with Trayvion Henderson. And I was with
Armandje, you know, coming back. We didn't know exactly what it would be. And I feel good.
I feel really good about it. And the thesis was basically like that he,
he can, even if he doesn't get an expanded role coming out of the by week, that he can still
get you there on any given week with the big plays.
And if he does get the expanded role, then it's like you're looking at a, I don't know, top 15,
top 20 running back floor, you know, because he's in one of the best offenses in the league.
And if he gets the explosive plays, then he's the weak winner.
And I think that's kind of just where we're at with Trevion is he can get receptions.
he can get touchdowns.
I love that we saw him on the field and in short yard situations in this past game.
And he can get you the big plays at any given point.
And they're apparently willing to give him this many carries, you know,
I think we're just locked in.
Like, it feels really, really good with Trayvion.
And we have the potential of the game against Baltimore in Baltimore.
That could be a game.
I'm not sure the way the game flow is going to go.
Baltimore completely shut down.
Cincinnati last week. New England, I think, is going to put pressure on them to make it a little
bit more of a free-flowing, higher-scoring game. But then you've got just unbelievable timing for
fantasy managers. The Jets are completely lying down. The Jets can't stop literally anyone. The Patriots
might put 40 points on the board in week 17 against this Jets team. You know, Mike Frable,
also a little cutthroat kind of guy, not going to mind putting it on somebody. So agree with you.
is in a fantastic spot.
He's going to continue his climb, maybe up to the one-two turn in 2026 redraft rankings.
I could just see it now.
Jacob, let him know once again where they could find your work.
It's beyond the box score.
And real quick, I wanted to give it James and Williams' stats.
Sorry, this isn't, yeah.
I looked it up and without Sam Laporta on the field over the last two years,
this is a 281 route sample size, which is not as big as these other players.
So the side-by-side comparisons aren't perfect.
But it's not a small sample size necessarily.
300 is the number of routes I typically look for as like a kind of stable,
it's relatively stable number.
2.8 yards per route run.
The only players who have a higher rate are like Pooka Nakua, Amanra, St. Brown,
you know, like that's truly elite stuff.
And it's also a really good first down per route run rate, 11%.
That's in the same vicinity as Jamar Chase, Devante Adams, A.J. Brown.
he's he's been freaking phenomenal when given any opportunity.
The only reason to be concerned about him early on,
I think, I don't speak for Scott,
but for me was like,
just didn't know if he was going to get the targets.
You know,
there's a lot of amounts of fees,
a lot of really good pieces in this offense.
New office and coordinator didn't know how he's going to go,
but now it's like we've got to play call around who's locked in on getting
into the ball.
And I think while I've had some concern about what Jamie will develop into long-term
is a route run and everything,
like the fact that he's been this productive when given opportunity
when more of a feature part of the office,
offense I think is relevant. They paid them. I feel really good about them. But yeah,
for all my stuff, it's you can follow me on Twitter. It's at J.A. Gibbs underscore 23.
Do check out Beyond the Box Score. That's anywhere you stream your podcasts. And then it's also on
YouTube. We're going to be doing that throughout the off season, helping you all feel better
about your dynasty decisions, helping you get ready for next year's draft, helping you understand
these incoming prospects and all that. It's going to be a lot of fun. Yeah, highly recommend all
of Jacob's work. Stick with us here at Fantasy Football Daily. We've got you covered. Startsit
with Graham Barfield, WaiverWire Show with Joe Dolan, Tom Brawley,
my takeaway show that drops every single Monday.
And then School of Scott, Scott Barrett and I, Dynasty Life,
Garrett Price of Dynasty nerds joining me this week.
We are dropping a 2026 way too early rookie mock draft.
And then the last podcast that I started up, Brett Whitefield and I,
2026 NFL draft podcast.
Subscribe to that anywhere you get your pods.
We're everywhere here at Fantasy Points.
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