Fantasy Football Daily - Turkey Day Wagers + Trey Cracks a Busch Latte | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: November 28, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today on the week 13 edition of the Fantasy Points Best Bet Show, Tom Browley and I will break down the Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate of games and any bets that we like. And then, of course, good friend Trey will join us to do whatever it is he's going to do. Hope you enjoy. Buddy, I hope you all are doing a great deal of cooking and a great deal of eating and hopefully a great deal of drinking. As you're listening to this, Dolan is going to be finishing up a turkey trot in downtown Greenville, South Carolina. God knows what they're going to have to peel me off the pavement after that.

I'm a Pella, bro. I don't go on my feet, T, bro. But look, I felt like I needed to get out of the house and get moving before I consume all the beer and the turkey chili and the mac and cheese that I'm going to be having on Thanksgiving. And I'm going to get ready to sit down and watch himself some footwear. football. T-brough, what's going on, man? This time tomorrow, I'm guessing you're going to be at your mom's house or your brother-in-law's house and your sister's house. I don't know where you go for Thanksgiving. But I don't know what it's like to see family on Thanksgiving. So I'm glad you're going to get that experience. Joe, the good thing about doing that turkey trot, you'll, you'll probably feel a little lighter and you'll probably have a bigger appetite for more food on Thanksgiving Day. I set your over under at 33 minutes and 33 seconds. Take the over. You're saying the over. So you're taking the trot to the full extent here. Absolutely.

It is specifically called a run walk. And like, you know, I figure, you know, I get to accomplish something. I got to pick up my packet and I got a bid there. Nice. I'm number 6,006. It looks like boob if you look really close. That's a big turkey trot there. Yeah.

My wife's doing the 8K. I'm only doing the 5K. There's not five times more people in the 5K. But hey, I'm, well, I'm not looking. forward to it, but I'm going to be, I'm looking forward to finishing it and being and wearing, I'm going to wear that metal all day tomorrow. Yeah, exactly. It will be rewarding at the end of the day. Yeah. But yeah, I, I'm doing the serious XM Thursday morning show for Thanksgiving and then driving to my sister's place in Greensburg, Pennsylvania for the day. So going to see some

family and relatives over there. So looking forward to it. And also looking to look forward to a little football on, on Thanksgiving Day as usual. might take a little bit of a nap in that 4 o'clock game between the Giants and Cowboys. But we'll find some props here to make it a little bit more interesting. Let's kick it off with the opening salve, if you will. The Lions and the Bears, T-Bro. We're looking at the Lions laying, oh, 10. Nine and a half now.

That key number of 10 got bet down. 48 and a half being the total. I have a bet on this one, Tom, and it has to do with the fact that, first of all, the lions are basically going up against these point totals by themselves. I mean, some of these point totals that have been in the 40s, the lions have been attacking and taking down alone. And the fact that I know he took an awful sack in overtime last week,

holding the ball for nearly 10 seconds, but since firing Shane Waldron, Caleb Williams has looked more like a competent NFL quarterback. They have some explosive playmakers and DJ Morkina Allen's getting open a little bit more. Roma Dunzee is quietly having a pretty strong rookie season. I think he's on pace for like 800 yards, which I think many Bears fans would have taken at the beginning of the season. Tom, give me the over. I got it actually at 49.

It's kind of floating between 48 and a half 49 minus 105. I feel like the Bears, I don't know if they're going to score enough to be competitive in this game, but I feel like they're going to score enough to keep the lion's foot on the gas pedal. And Dan Campbell likes to take his team and really make a statement every week. This is a national TV game. Thanksgiving, you know, the Lions for years for most of my life, struggled on Thanksgiving Day. And now they're a premier franchise, premier team in the NFL. I think there's going to be some fireworks in this one.

Give me the over the 49th. Yeah, I like that. I kind of lean towards the lion's side. the I pick every game against the spread and we're on a nice little hot streak with those and we're putting the staff picks up on Wednesday night so make sure to check those out coming off an 8 and 5 week

and been running hot here the last couple of weeks with the against the spread picks and I'm leaning towards the lines here I'm with you here I think they want to put on a good show on national TV against the Chicago Bears, their arrival so I think they're going to keep the foot down on the pedal in this one But we also saw last week with the Bears.

They showed a little bit of fight against the Vikings, took that game into overtime when it looked impossible. So I like your lean there. Why not a little bit of fireworks in that opening game? But I do have some player props. I'm going to follow a good friend Trey from last week. I don't know why I didn't back it last week. I really liked it a lot.

The DJ Moore receptions. I'm going back there this week. four more design targets for him last week. He's up to eight design targets in the last two weeks under Thomas Brown. He's getting these real cheap, easy catches, even look for, I didn't actually look to see, but rushing yards as well. I didn't give it out on the site, but I took it myself. It was like plus 185 for DJ Moore to have over a half a rushing yard.

That would be something I would look at too. He's gotten more than a rushing, he's gotten an attempt. each of the first two games was Thomas Brown, and he's got opportunities the last, you know, quite a bit this season. So look at his over rushing yards as well, especially if we're going to get a little bit of a plus price on it. I'm not seeing anything out there right now, but that was something that popped up on game day that I liked last week.

And I kept that one to myself. I had a little boost and I boosted it up. But I like this receptions prop just because they're featuring him. Real short A-DOT. So we're going back to DJ Moore to collect some cheap catches. The ADOT is at 1.8 yards so far under Thomas Brown. And if we look at Detroit on the other side, they're giving up the most receptions per game to wide receivers at 15.3.

So it's adding up that DJ Moore could catch some passes. And as you said, Joe, we've got a big spread here, expecting a lot of points. Maybe they're going to be tossing around the field here late as they try to catch back up. So I like the over four and a half reception for DJ Moore. I also like the under. I'm giving out an under here.

Cole commit under his yards. I gave it out 36.5 on our Discord in on the site on Tuesday. This has been bet down a little bit. I'm seeing I think 33.5. 32 and a half is the best number now. Don't like it as much here, obviously. But I still think this is bettable. The lines just don't give up any production to tight ends this season.

and only two tight ends have hit 34 or more receiving yards against them so far this season. We haven't projected for right around 34 yards. So looking for Cole Komet to have a little bit of a quiet game here. So taking his under. I know everybody, we don't like the bet unders, but I got a couple of them this week. I like it, T, bro. Well, we're going to pay some bills even on Thanksgiving. We got to give thanks to the people who sign our paychecks here.

So we're going to do that. and I'll be back with another bet from the Thanksgiving slate that I like, and it might be in that boring game that we're all anticipating. You know, Tom Brawley, I am, this is what I get for laughing at John Hanson, just like out of sheer love, nothing, nothing other than that, about how he complains about losing props by, you know, half a yard or half a carry or like two yards here. And I'm like, well, yeah, John, that's why they're good at what they do.

They set the lines really tight, and you can lose it. them by half, but I am sick of losing bets by half a unit or half a carry. Naji Harris, 16 carries last week. I had the over 16 and a half. And if, I mean, James Winston completely bailed out because if he does not accidentally hit an offensive lineman with a throw, turning it into an illegal touching penalty, he gets called for intentional grounding. The Steelers end up taking over probably on downs, and Najee Harris is going to get a carry

as the Steelers try to run out the clock. So I lost that last week. Yeah, that was, that's ridiculous. I was thinking about that. Obviously, I'm a Steelers fan. I don't understand why there isn't a loss of downs with the illegal touching. That penalty just doesn't add, you know, if it's intentional grounding, you get the spot where it's intentional grounding. Yeah, it's the same functionally as intentional grounding.

Yeah, but it's only a five-yard penalty and it turns in, you know, you get the down over again. It just does not make any sense. I'm sure there's a reason, but. It feels like there should be a different penalty for an ineligible receiver touching a ball vis-a-vis a receiver who steps out of bounds and doesn't establish himself, right? Like, it feels like there should be a different penalty for that. Get on that NFL because I'm sick of losing by half a freaking carry. And then, of course, Jalen Warren looks good for the first time in three months.

So that also was against me. Nonetheless, Tom, we got to get back to the window. I got a bet in the Cowboys Giants game. Now, I'm not sure I like it as much now that we learned that Drew Locke is probably going to start the game for an injured Tommy DeVito because I don't know what the difference is, but I actually tend to think Drew Locke's probably better than Tommy. The books, not the books, the betters think he's the better option as well. We've seen some money. This line was at four last on Tuesday night. News came out basically this on Wednesday afternoon.

It's going to be Drew Locke here starting. been down to three and a half, but it looks like there's a lot of pressure. We could see some threes pop up. This is going to be one of those classic like 3.25 lines. If you want a three and a half with the giants, you probably can get it. If you want to bet it with the Cowboys at minus three, you're probably going to have an opportunity here today. There is absolutely no way in hell I am backing the Giants, even with Drew Locke, and I'm definitely not backing the Cowboys. But the Cowboys are favored in this game. Over the last five, weeks. No team has given up more schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs as

runners. So this doesn't even take into account receiving like Bucky Irving was doing last week. Then the New York Giants, they are giving up the single most schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs on the ground over the last five weeks. The Dallas Cowboys have finally realized that Rico Dowdle is their best option. In week, in week 12 against, Washington, his 19 carries in 86 yards were his second highest in each category on the season. His number of rushing yards down at just 67 and a half. The Cowboys are favored and it was even odds for Rico Dattle to go over the 67 and a half. I don't think he's any great shakes, but I think the New York Giants have quit.

Give me Rico Dowdle over 67 and a half rushing yards. Yep, they're giving up 12th most adjusted yards before contact as well per attempt. nine yards from our fantasy points data. 5.1 yards per carry as well to backs. He actually, you know, he looked pretty good in the first matchup. This is already, this is one of those matchups that we saw on Thursday night football back in week four. He had 11 carries for 46 yards.

So much smaller rule in that game. But yeah, I like this one. He should be able to get a little bit of volume, even if Drew Locke does make these giants a little friscier. I don't see them racing out to a big lead and being. able to shut Rico Dattle out of this game. So as for my prop, this is one. It might have been the worst prop line I've seen of the year.

I gave out Malik neighbors over 53.5 receiving yards. It's been bet up into the mid-60s at this point. So I still like it. We have them projected for around 70 yards. But obviously a lot of that, there's no value left on that one. But I still like him to be fed in this matchup. We saw it earlier this year, 12 catches for 115 yards and 15 targets. That was with Daniel Jones, obviously.

He suffered that concussion late in that game. That was that real bizarre play along the sidelines where he fell face first into the ground and suffered a concussion. But he's been leading the NFL in Target share at 33%. First read share at close to 43%. So everything's kind of lining up here. It could be in a trailing state. I like the fact that Drew Locke is back in the line up here. And then Dallas has given up 105.9 receiving yards per game to outside receivers

and the fourth most yards per route run to receivers at 2.24 yards. So everything is kind of lining up here for Malik neighbors to have a big game. And the biggest part of my handicap and the reason why I like this so much was he was the guy after the game basically calling out his head coach. Yep. We're going to get the squeak wheel here. I can't believe I miss that line. Yeah, this is a, and I still like it in the mid-60s.

I see some, I could see if you want to take that, you know, maybe, maybe you don't want to bet that mid-60s now. Maybe you go look at a first quarter line, first half line. I do think they're going to feed him early, you know, the game script that Brian Dable will have. I guarantee that he has a few targets for Malik neighbors in it after not getting a target in the first half last week. So I'm looking at Malik neighbors to get fed early in this game and they could be trailing. So could get a little bit of garbage time work as well. So love neighbors this weekend. Yeah, I think that's a really good.

I think that's a really good number here. Let's see. What is Malik neighbors to make a reception on their team's first drive, Tom? It's got to be like plus 120. Plus 100. It's either. Okay, okay, okay. I'm going to lay.

Now, this is not a best bet. This is a Tom Broly convention. Vince is Dolan into a D-Gen bet. So he is plus one, he is even odds to make a, so this is not one of my best bets, but I like that, Tom. All he's got to do is make a reception on the first drive. So I have to think he's going to get targeted in one of their first three plays. And if they pick up the last week, like Daibald knows,

Neighbors is kind of the face of the franchise at this point. And he needs to keep him happy. So keep him out of the press a little bit. So I think he's going to be fed here early in the game. Oh, what a horrible bet that is. I'm doing some tray levels up there. It's Thanksgiving Day. You're going to get a little bit of booze in you.

You're going to be feeling pretty good. You're going to be placing some bad bets. So why not? That one feels at least there's like a good narrative behind that bet. Yeah. So by the way, I'm probably going to be starting to set my DFS lineups tonight while I'm so here's what I'm doing and we'll talk to good friend Trey a little bit later about his plans obviously that you're listening to this on Thanksgiving Day but we're recording it the

night before we're going to talk to good friend Trey about his plans for later this evening all what I got to do Tom because of the turkey trot is I not drink less on Thanksgiving Eve just drink earlier you see yeah so I fall asleep earlier you see that's the that's the old plan so you get a good night's rest just like years of science have developed this technique. But I want to ask you about the Thursday night Thanksgiving night game. I don't have anything on this game currently. I am very worried about Tua's numbers in the cold.

I think he's like 0 and 6 in games that kick below 50 degrees, 0 and 5 when they kick below 40 degrees, and it's going to be cold in Green Bay. I'm excited for this game. These are two teams. Green Bay obviously very, look, Green Bay technically, he's still alive for the first seed because they're so tight in that division with the lions and the Vikings. And Miami very much alive in the playoff hunt. I'm more excited for this

as a football game. I'm sure I'm going to get down on some prize pick shit for this game. But do you have anything on Thursday night football? Yeah, I couldn't really find anything in the prop market. I'm kind of kicking myself. I really like the Johnny Smith stuff. It was in the low 40s. And now it's up to like 46, 47. seven and a half range. So I'm probably going to stay off of those numbers. But I am going against the narrative a little bit. I am backing the dolphins here. I think those numbers are a little bit overblown. Like last year, that was the Chiefs. That was like below zero. And the dolphins were a fading team at that point. You know, they had they backpedaled into the playoffs. And a lot of those other games are against

the Buffalo Bills. You know, people lose against the Buffalo Bills. up in Orchard Park all the time. They go up to New England. You're going to get beat by Bill Belichick, you know, certainly a few times there. So I think these numbers are a little bit overblown for Tua in the cold weather. So I see these two teams as pretty even.

In my power rating rankings, I have the Packers, slightly ahead of the dolphins. I've been bumping up the dolphins quite a bit here over the last five weeks since Tua came back into the line. But it's amazing. just how different this offense is with him in it. And I think their defense is starting to turn a little bit of a corner here.

Our guy, Chop Robinson from Penn State has been making some big-time plays here over the last couple of weeks, you know, off the edge. So I like the dolphins to keep this one close. I think we're getting a little bit of a little bonus here with this hook at three and a half. I think this line should be two and a half to three points. So I'm going to be taking the point. points here with the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. I wish I had a prop to go along with this, but I like the dolphins here. On Friday, Tom, I'm sick because you were able to find

an actual prop on this in Dolan's limited offshore options. Hopefully I win something so I can buy freaking Bitcoin, that's how they pay me in freaking Bitcoin. Maybe that's why they're Yeah, better get in on that Bitcoin. It's going way up. It's through the roof here. I don't know shit about it. I just know this is going up. I did have Bitcoin. Um, your roommate Tom would know the reasons we had Bitcoin. It was not investment. I'll tell you that. No, no, no. Now it's legal everywhere, so it didn't need that Bitcoin anymore. I live in South Carolina, man. Come on. Like, there's nothing legal here. Can't even buy booze on a Sunday down here. Um, anyway, um, you have something on the Friday game. I don't have, I don't have anything here. I will tell

what I am not doing. I am not teasing the Kansas City Chiefs. That is two straight weeks. They have absolutely goased me, and I'm sick and tired of it. So fuck this team. I'm not doing it anymore. You'll learn your lesson. You did throw a bet into our subscriber discord.

And I want to talk about our subscriber discord because for the rest of this week, which counts today, Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, and Saturday, which is, I don't know, Thanksgiving Saturday, whatever hell you want. Yeah, it's like the Saturday between Cyber Monday and Black Friday. It's still a sale down. We have a flash Black Friday sale at FantasyPoint.com, $10 NFL premium, which is $175 full price, or a $40 all-in package, which is $420 full price, gets you NFL premium package, which includes betting and DFS content. You will be glad you did. Tom, you have a prop in this, in this game, this Friday game that's going to.

to be terrible, or at least I think it's going to be terrible, but the Chiefs can't blow anybody out these days. What are you hitting here in this game? Yeah, hopefully this is still available whenever you listen to this. I have a feeling it might not be. So this is a good reason why to be in our discord. Kareem Hunt under 59.5 rushing yards, I would bet this down to like 50 and a half, 49, you know, Isaiah Pacheco is supposed to be back in the lineup here. where Andy Reid is saying that he is healthy again. As long as he doesn't have a setback, he is going to be playing again.

So we have him, a cream hunt, that is, projected for 33.6 yards. So this line, honestly, it shouldn't be on the board right now. And it might not be by the time you listen to this. If it is, pull over to the side of the road, you know, safely place your bet over a bet MGM. Bet 365 also has a cream hunt prop up. Some of these books have it up.

So make sure to go look around. This is a bad number with Isaiah Pacheco, supposed to be back in the lineup here against the Raiders. And if you look at the Raiders, they're not that terrible against the run. They're giving up the 11th fewest yards before contact per attempt at 1.76 yards. And then if we look at what Cream Hunt has done, he's averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

32 explosive yards on 155 attempts. Is that even? That means he has two explosive carries. That means me and you could get 32 exclusive yards if you give us 155 carries. Lock it up right. Yes, exactly. But so this is a bad number. It shouldn't be on the board.

I think this should be more in the 45 yard range. So go check to see if Kareem Hunt rushing guards are out there and bet it if it's still in the 50 yard range here. All right, Tom. Let's go to the Sunday slate because I actually have a couple of bets, including Dolan's teaser that's guaranteed to fail. But our boy, good friend, Trey, I'm going to have to ask him about this when he comes on because he's a Falcons fan. I got the Chargers coming off an emotional game, short week traveling west to east. The Falcons are coming off a buy. The Chargers just lost J.K. Dobbins. The Falcons are in basically close to must-win mode here in that terrible division

with the Buccaneers having an easy schedule down the stretch. Rahim Morris talking all week, watching all the film, the thing that makes me sick is all the self-inflicted mistakes. That's been a big focus of ours over the by week. The Falcons, I mean, this is a bet-on spot for them, Falcons plus one and a half. Now, maybe you could say this would be a better spot to bet the Falcons, If the Chargers won, you know, they won the Harbaugh Bowl and they're coming West, you know.

But I actually feel like the Falcons are still in a bet on spot here. They have to get things cleaned up. The Chargers just lost a key player in J.K. Dobbins. Falcons getting a point in a half. I have the Falcons as underdogs against the Chargers at home. I'm on this one too. This is one I liked on Monday morning, gave out right at the start of the week when I put my first bets of the week up. So not a whole lot to add here.

It works out a little bit. J.K. Dobbins, running backs don't really move lines. But, man, this is a team that wants to be physical and run the ball. And Gus Edwards just looked like crap a whole season long. They don't really have. Actually, I'm most worried about if Kamani Bidel gets a little bit more. Yeah, he looks good. Because if they waste handoffs on Hassan Haskins and Gus,

us Edwards, I'll gladly take that, you know, as somebody that's backing the Falcons here. If you look around, though, there are some plus twos out there. So make sure to look around, you know, not a ton of lines finish here in that one, the three point range. But we see it more often nowadays with, you know, more teams going for two, going for it in certain situations. So, you know, shop around, see if you can get a plus two. But, yeah, this is a situation where just it's screaming the. Falcons, they've had two bad performances before the buy, had a little bit of time to rest up, get healthy, hopefully correct some things, especially on the defensive line.

They need to start generating some pressure. That's the one thing that kind of worries me here is if Justin Herbert has all day. But even if he has all day, maybe those receivers will continue to drop balls for him. Quentin Johnston reverting back to his rookie form on Monday night football. So a tough spot here for the Chargers. You know, that was like, you know, the Harbour. They were trying to get up for that game against the Ravens. Guess who they have next week as well?

Kansas City Chiefs, the team that they're always measuring themselves against in the AFC West. Still in the division race, by the way. Still in the race. We'll see what happens. So this is the flattest spot. It might be one of the flattest spots that a team can have here between two big games. And you got to go fly out to the East Coast and play some NFC. team, who cares.

So let's take the Falcons here, getting some points. Do you have anything else on the Sunday slate before I get into the Dolan Tees to please? Okay, yeah, I have one more. Cals Seahawks minus one and a half. I have no clue what to do with this damn team, man. I still. Oh, Seahawks? I bet them last week.

I think this defense is starting to turn a corner. They gave Kyler Murray all kinds of bits. McDaniel. Excuse me, McDonald's defense. McDonald's defense. Yeah, they're starting to, you know, they're starting to get an identity here. This was a team we were picking on a little bit for fantasy in the first half of the season. But three straight games against division opponents against the Rams before their by, 49ers, out of the buy.

And then the Cardinals last week, this defense has started to look much better here. We know the Jets are reeling a little bit right now on Thursday. We did get a little bit of, you know, breeze halls got some knees soreness. So there's a potential that he may not play or maybe he's limited at some point in this contest. So I'm liking Jackson Smith and Jigba as well. An offense is starting to become a big part of this offense. So I like how this kind of lines up for him.

I know the Jets are coming back off of their by. Maybe they've had a little time to settle down here. But I think it's more likely that they continue to implode. There's a new story that comes out every day. He's still flapping his gums on television. He's going on Pat McAfee every week and, you know, just making the whole situation worse. So I try to find these spots every year where you kind of pick a team and, you know, you're backing them and you hope they go on a little ATS run. I thought it might be the Rams a couple of weeks ago.

Took them against the dolphins. That did not happen. But I'm going to ride with the Seahawks here. Took them last week. This feels a little light here. I think this should be closer to a field goal. So maybe we'll go on a little run here with the Seahawks. All right.

So I guess I created in the middle of the season, or I guess the end of the season, my teaser of the week. I'm owed for two on those teasers. Two weeks ago, I had the Steelers plus nine. They won out right. Last week I had the Wions minus one. They won in a blowout. But the other legs, the Kansas City Chiefs, plus eight and a half.

they lose to the bills. Yep, by nine. Josh Allen, gotcha. Chiefs last week, minus four and a half. Bryce Young plays the best game of his career. Nope, nope, nope, no, eh, eh, eh, Dolan loses that leg. I'm doing a teaser this week.

It does not include the Kansas City Chiefs. Does it include the Raiders? Getting that up to like 19 points? No, it does not include the Raiders. Tom, I'm going to take the other side of the Har Bowl here. and talk about maybe, hey, the Ravens just won a big emotional game. They're coming back east after an emotional win and a short week. They're laying three, excuse me, yeah, they are.

They're laying three to the Eagles. Well, I have the Eagles teased up to plus nine. I have a hard time seeing this Eagles team as currently constructed, losing by more than one score. Now, the thing that does concern me is the way to get these Ravens is through the air, and DeVante Smith is still up in the air for this weekend. being said, A.J. Brown can do a hell of a lot of damage by himself, and we know about that Sequan guy. So the Eagles are plus, plus nine. A team that's falling apart right now, San Francisco

might not have their starting quarterback. It's still up in the air with Brock Purdy. Now, my wife watches the weather channel every morning. Oh, yeah. I've been tracking this too. She said to me, hey, are the bills at home this weekend? I said, as a matter of fact, yes, on Sunday night football. Guess what it does in Buffalo in December, Tom? It can snow. It can snow. Bills are seven point favorites as it stands right now against the San Francisco 49ers. Well, in a two-team, six-point teaser, that teases them down to one. All I need is the Buffalo Bills to win the football game. That's it. Against San Francisco, well, I guess by more than a point, a collapsing San Francisco team, maybe getting some guys back, but I don't see this current version of

San Francisco going into Buffalo in a snowstorm and winning the football game, which is what they would need to do. So my minus 122 team teaser of the week, Eagles plus nine, Bills minus one. I like it. I'd like this one. I like the bills here. You know, 49ers, that's a, that's a tough spot. Go play out in weather after being out in California all week and Christian McCaff-you know, this is a game where the running game has to probably be very effective here. And Christian McCaffrey, It's been a slow first three weeks here. We'll see about Brock Purdy status. So, yeah, in the Eagles, though, that's the leg.

That's honestly, that's the part of the leg. Because we see Lamar Jackson, man. They can pile on some points at times. And we saw it last week. That game was really close. And then, you know, look up at the end and the Ravens are up multiple scores. So that is the leg I'd be a little bit more worried about. If Sequin.

Oh, it is the leg I'm more worried about it. Yeah, if the Ravens, because they did. is the strength of that team. They can really stop the run. And if they find a way to bottle up, Sequin Barclays, though. So, yeah, I like it. But the Ravens Eagle's leg is probably the one I would be a little bit more worried about. Yeah. Well, I mean, there's always got to be a leg of a parlay you're more worried about. I know good friend Trey is worried about getting the hell out of here for Thanksgiving Eve. So let's, let's hurry up and get to him so he can go have himself some fun. We'll be back right after this.

good friend tray happy thanksgiving my friend what's happening man i know we we don't need to put his artificial lighting on because i actually have natural light right now which means we're recording this a little bit earlier in the day than is typical and that was at your behest actually so you you're cooking something else up in the lab this weekend yeah well it's about almost 4 p.m. central as we're recording and i'm i'm getting out to the bar as fast as i can this is the last thing I got to do today. Probably crack a beer right at the end of this podcast and get ready to go rock and roll. I'm going to edit this and zip on out.

So that's the plan. I do want to say from last week, I got a little story to tell you about my bets last week. So I'm doing my research, okay? I see DJ Moore. All right. He's now a target monster in this new office. I say ladder, ladder, ladder. I go bet his yards before I even finish doing the.

research. I come back and I see their, their Wondale Robinson type targets. They're low a dot target that said, oh, I screwed the pooch on this one. So I did bet DJ Moore one unit, uh, over 70 yards and half a unit over 100 yards, which after the fact, they did hit. So I was surprised to see that I, I, I did hit both of those. Uh, so you're investing that elsewhere now. Yes. Yes. I gave out the receptions, of course, over four and a half hit easy. I think you got, and then six, seven, eight. He did not get to eight, but he got to seven. And then the over and the under together, it failed. But, you know, one of my more successful weeks, I will say. Yeah, it's a low bar to cross, but it definitely was one of your more successful weeks. He did, you know, you went up that ladder a little bit. And I hope he does it again this weekend for me. Well, well, I need to know what's going on here on Thanksgiving week,

big week of football. Yeah, one of the biggest weeks of, I mean, maybe outside of Super Bowl Sunday, maybe the most bet weekend of football in general. Good friend, Trey, you've got to have something going. Well, you'd be surprised to know that I do not have something going. At this current moment in time, I've been very focused on the activities that I will be partaking in tonight. So I figured, what the hell? You know, I'm doing all this analysis and it's not working out for me.

So what if I grab my phone live on the podcast and just go on Vi? I think that might be the way to go. All right. Well, what are the vibes taking you right now? So the vibes are taking me to the Lions and the Bears, okay? And I think I'm going to pick four touchdown scores. Four of them. Joe doesn't like the over.

I do. Yeah. I think Caleb's looking better. He's getting better as the seasons going on. I think Anthony Richardson surprisingly looked pretty good against the Lions last week. I know the score did not reflect that, but he put some things together. I think this is a. somewhat beatable defense.

I'm not saying they're awful, but I don't think they're a little maybe overrated. I don't mean that in a disrespectful way, but people think they're the real deal. They're very good, but I think they could be beat. So with that being said, what do you guys think about David Montgomery, revenge game? He's getting in the end zone once. What do you think about that? I mean, that's like a lock. He scores every week.

Yeah, he's getting in. There's no questions there. I don't know why I feel this way. Sam Lipported just seems like a Thanksgiving Day touchdown score. Doesn't he just big tight end? Well, he's a farm boy. I'm guessing you, Iowa people love Thanksgiving. Yeah, it's a great time.

I mean, in the day before Thanksgiving, it's the greatest holiday of the year. I mean, it's, there's nothing better. I will say, they might be due to give up a touchdown. From my game hub, Chig Aquanko in the season opener is the last time the Bears have given up a touchdown. So either they're really good at defending down the red zone Or they are absolutely due to give up a touchdown on Thanksgiving Day. Sounds to me like they're due. I'm going to throw in,

let's go with Rome Madunesay. Let's go with Rome Madunesay to grab one. How are we feeling about Rome? He's had a, well, I do know that he was in sublime and then he was out of sublime. and now apparently, so apparently sublime with Rome was sublime with this guy Rome, singing for sublime. Well, the guys from sublime left sublime with Rome to reform sublime with Bradley Noel's son, okay? And now they were sublime.

So they were sublime without Rome, which means they were just sublime. But sublime with Rome still toward with Rome, but they didn't have sublime. So it was sublime with Rome without sublime. I don't understand how that all works. I don't get it. So you're saying the Rome pick is sublime. There you go. It might be sublime.

He's having a good rookie season, but he needed a new career after sublime left sublime with Rome. So it's now sublime with Rome without sublime. It sounds like a winner to me. That's going to be plus 2,000. Do we even need a fourth leg? Though I'm kind of thinking. I need a third one.

I think, you know what? Let's throw Rochon Johnson in there, too. Oh my God, that is skanky. Let's sneak Rochon Johnson in there. You know, he's get some little go on guys, Gary's. And look at this. I even have a no sweat token. So we're going to go ahead and put, I usually bet about $25.

It's my unit. So we're going to put $25 on that one plus $8,500. Oh, my gosh. 25 to win $2,000. because, hey, the analysis hasn't been working for me anyway. Wait a minute. Are you betting all those individually? No.

Parlay. That's a parlay. Why would I bet them individually? I thought you want to see the ball go through the hoop. I already saw it go through the hoop a couple weeks ago. How many shots are I supposed to make this year? Oh, good Lord, man. All right.

Poor touchdowns. Listen, there's no rhyme or reason. It's just vibes. And if it hits, maybe I'm on to. something. I mean, you must be feeling immaculate before you're going out to the bar. Yeah, the, the, the boys are back in town on a Thanksgiving Eve night. So the best part, the best part about placing the bet is the, you know, the thought that what if it does happen? And the game's not until tomorrow. So I've got that all night. I can just sit at the bar all

night with that thought that, hey, what if? What if? What if you play the power ball, right? Exactly. Exactly. And then David Montgomery scores five minutes into the game. on Thanksgiving Day and you're like cash that baby out I'm winning all this money baby this is gonna be such this is my day oh I need these touchdowns because I have the over I think I think that's just minus 110 for me unfortunately yeah you're not gonna win that much on but uh yeah but you might win though so good friend try tell us what's the what's the beverage of choice at uh in uh the middle of Iowa well I'm glad you asked because I have one right here oh let me give give this a listen Tell me if you can hear this.

Oh, man. I can't wait to do that tomorrow. Bush latte in the corn can. That's popular in central Pennsylvania, too. What do we say that the morning after looks like, T, bro? The Bush, Bush. Yeah, yeah. You're going to have fun with the Bush Tush tomorrow.

Don't they have the camo cans out in Iowa? We don't need the camo cans. We've got the corn can for the viewers at home. you're seeing this in video form. There's corn on the can. And I do need to say with the bush lattes, I don't like it a little. I like it a latte.

Oh, Bush light, man, let me tell you something. I will say that was an impressive sound. I still contend Corv Light is the loudest beer can on the planet. Slim cans, however they, however they do it,

has an extra little pop to it. Yeah, like, but I'm pretty sure they use that. And there's a song by the drive-by truckers. called Hell No, I Ain't Happy, and it opens with the sound of a beer can opening. And it had to be coarse. It had to be a coarse light because it just snaps open.

Tom, I got some, I got some Duke Claw sweet baby Jesus in the fridge, which is the peanut butter chocolate porter, which I will be imbibing tomorrow after I do the turkey trot. Good friend Trey better send us pictures of this. What's this place called that you're going to? Oh, big shout out. Bill's Tap, Lisbon, Iowa. Bill's Tap in Lisbon, Iowa. If you're ever in the area, call me, hit me on Discord, find me down there. Tray will get you a Bush Light. It's on the house. I might be drinking something a little harder than Bush Light tonight. Well, I need to get some pictures from this. Meanwhile, I'm going to be starting out a little bit earlier than usual so I can pass out by like 10.30 to get my big ass up for the turkey trot. T-bro, you're talking to a Paul Kelly tomorrow morning on serious XM fantasy sports radio.

And none of this even matters right now because this podcast isn't even going to be out until tomorrow, but Thanksgiving it is. Happy Thanksgiving, everybody here from your three bros, as you well know, we are not wise by any stretch of the imagination. We're just guys. But hey, we have fun on the best bet show. Make sure you check out that $10 premium subscription at fantasy points or $40 all in, which also includes the data suite, which is free for this week only if you want to see what

that thing can do. All of our bets are powered by Fantasy Points Data, maybe with the exception of good friend Trace. His are powered by Bush Latte. Thanks everybody. Have a good one. Have a very happy Thanksgiving.