Fantasy Football Daily - Unders Are For SQUARES, a Ladder to the Promised Land + Trey Sings "Here Comes the Money" | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: January 23, 2025

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share the...ir top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:34 If you fear the chance of accidental leakage and skin irritation, you need to try tennis sensitive care overnight pads. Its skin comfort formula acts as a barrier to help protect your skin. Try them now and have a smooth night. Conference championship week in the NFL and here on the Best Bet show, I finally hit my Dolan teaser, my final Dolan teaser of the season, but my props got cleaned out. Maybe I'm betting on too many low-end players.
Starting point is 00:01:02 Tom Brawley, hopefully he did better than I did. We'll get his word. And then of course, good friend Trey is working in some conference championship slop. This is the best bet show. Tebrough, we've made it. The last multi-game slate of the NFL season. And it is just two games, both on Sunday. Saturday football is over. We have a 3 p.m. Eastern NFC championship game with Washington Commanders visiting the Philadelphia Eagles. We've got the AFC championship. game with the Buffalo Vills visiting guess who the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. That's at 630
Starting point is 00:01:45 Eastern. It is a classic championship game window. Tom Brawley, I've been kind of going through the props. It's tight this week. The books have only two games to focus on and they are setting some tight lines, but I've made a couple of bets that I feel decently good
Starting point is 00:02:01 about. How are you doing? How was your divisional round output? It was a little bit of a struggle in the divisional round. I thought the lines were pretty tight last week as well, especially with the player props. Went two and four overall. A little bit of a small loser.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Geez, I can't remember the last time I had a losing weekend with the player props. But I had a 1 and O. I've had the Eagles against the spread. I gave it out at five and a half. Luckily, it got under that number after that safety. You got on the right side of that. I know. Yeah, I know a lot of people were on that six, six and a half.
Starting point is 00:02:37 So some people. ended up getting a backdoor cover, having the Rams plus six and a half in that game. Yeah, it was a weird weekend of games, though. All the winning teams thoroughly outproduced the winning teams. But it all came down to turnovers last week for the winning teams. So hopefully we get a little bit more offense from some of these winning teams this week. I think that really hurt a lot of the props. I mean, Buffalo didn't have to do much on offense, Kansas City as well.
Starting point is 00:03:07 So hopefully we see a little bit more offense in these games. It looks like weather-wise, it's shaping up to be a pretty nice weekend, all things considered. Not a lot of wind and temperatures in the low to mid-30s, right around freezing for both games. So it doesn't look like it should be a major factor in these championship games, which I'd rather these teams be playing in somewhat ideal conditions after last week's pair of snow games on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:03:35 So let's start with the NFC championship game. We have the Philadelphia Eagles at home, Tom. They were laying six, okay? This opened it four and a half. So it really feels like that if Jalen Hertz was in any way going to be severely limited, all right? I'm not going to say he's going to be 100% healthy, but it seems like the books and the markets got word kind of early this week that Jalen Hertz was going to be okay and is going to play.
Starting point is 00:04:04 Quinyon Mitchell. Okay. going to play. That seems to be everything that Nick Siriani is indicating. That opened at four and a half and it quickly got bet up to five and a half. And as we're recording this, we are looking at a six with the Eagles. Fandul has a six and a half out there. So if you like the commanders, take that six and a half. It's pretty much universally six. So I want to talk to you about the points where A number one, do you have a bet on the point spread or the total in this game? And B number two, could you see this moving maybe back towards the commander?
Starting point is 00:04:35 are even in favor of the Eagles before Sunday. No, I mean, I jumped on the commanders here when I got to six and a half. I thought the line was pretty much where it should have been when it opened at four and a half, five. I have about a three point difference between these teams and give the Eagles a full two points for home field advantage. So I thought the line should have been right around five. So once it got up to six and it crossed over to six and a half, I felt kind of obligated to take a little bit of Washington. in this game. So, but we saw last week gave out the, the Eagles, five and a half.
Starting point is 00:05:12 And that line, a lot of people, as we were saying, got burned by it. It was up to seven at some point. So I would not be surprised if this line kind of settles in at six and a half later in the week. Maybe it touches seven, especially if the injury report is, you know, pretty favorable for the Eagles here with the Jalen Hertz situation. I think the, the Sam Cosme injury. And the interior of the offensive line for Washington might be driving some of this.
Starting point is 00:05:42 You know, he's coming in to this season as their best offensive linemen. And the O line has overperformed to this point, but they're taking out a key piece of that offensive line. And we know the Eagles defensive line is one of their strongest position groups. And we saw it at the end of that game last week when the Rams were on the move. And Jalen Carter made the big sack on the third and two play to kind of blew up. that drive. flew up the right guard and yes he did. Right in that same spot there.
Starting point is 00:06:11 So that game could have been totally different. But if they're able to hold them off there and maybe the Rams have a chance to win. So but that's what this defensive line can do. So I think that that's a big cause for this, this little bit of a line movement towards the Eagles here laying a few more points. Yeah. So I hit the Eagles. and the commanders in a teaser last week, the Eagles was the only sweat of that one
Starting point is 00:06:40 because I had basically the Eagles money line with the commanders catching 15 points. So I hit that. I am not on the spread in this game. I think six and a half, six, six and a half sounds about right to me. And the thing that either, I don't know, it kind of scares me about this game is we didn't see either of these teams at close to full strength
Starting point is 00:07:01 in either of the two matchups. You know, in the first matchup, which the commanders, it was 2618, I believe, but it was 2610 for, for, you know, a lot of, a lot of the third and fourth quarter and then Ertz scored a late touchdown. But Jane Daniels was playing with banged up ribs, even though, you know, I don't think he was on the injury report or anything like that, but he was playing with banged up ribs. Obviously, when the commanders beat the Eagles, Jaden Daniels throws for five touchdowns, but he also has five turnovers or the, the commanders have five turnovers. The Eagles lose Jalen Hertz on the second
Starting point is 00:07:31 series of the game. Meanwhile, Chaunty Gardner Johnson gets thrown out of the game, the safety for the Eagles, and his backup gives up multiple touchdowns. So really a strange situation here for teams that have met twice already this season. So I didn't feel great about the spread. I did feel great about one thing. And it's the one thing that the Eagles fans feel the best about right now, Sequin Barkwood. Against the commanders. How about his prop, Joe, if you're going there. I mean, this prop, This is the highest player prop I've seen in terms of rushing yards this season. I am not betting this prop. Okay, it's 1.29 and a half.
Starting point is 00:08:10 It's the highest. I mean, that's a lot. Yeah. I mean, I don't know how you can take an under here. And I'll tell you why. I talk to Brett Whitefield today. And it's as convicted as if I've heard them all year. Now, maybe there's some Lions fan bitterness hanging around.
Starting point is 00:08:27 There's a lot of that going around right now in Detroit fandom. He thinks that the Eagles are going to wallop the commanders. So he thinks the Eagles have a significant advantage on both lines. And he thinks that's going to be the difference. But Sequin's prop was way too high for that. That being said, he ran for 146 and two touchdowns in November against Washington. He ran for 150 and two touchdowns in December, right before Christmas, against Washington, performing in a win and a loss.
Starting point is 00:08:58 his longest rush prop is 23 and a half yards. He bested that in each of the games against Washington. He had a run of 39 yards against Washington in November. He had a run of 68 yards against Washington in December. He had two touchdowns longer than this against the Rams. He had a run of 23 yards against Dallas a couple of weeks ago. He has had a run of 23 yards or longer in 11 games this year. I am betting Saquan Barkley to have at least one run where he gets to the edge
Starting point is 00:09:39 or maybe the Eagles get to the second level. Give me Saquan over 23 and a half rushing yards on his longest run of the day. Yeah, I feel like we've seen that plenty of times so far this postseason. He slid down early. I think it was only for a 17-yard gain at the end of the wild card round there or else. Right, right. And that's not even one of the games where he went over it. He had free grass.
Starting point is 00:10:01 Yeah, he could have easily. I forget what if I think he would have run for 70 plus yards on that, that run or 60 plus yards, whatever it was. So he easily would have gotten at that. So yeah, no complaints here. Maybe that's a way to attack this very high number at 129. And a half is what I'm seeing. He was about 110 yards last week.
Starting point is 00:10:22 And we've seen him fly over this number in both games against the commander. So, yeah, the numbers kind of line up. Commanders are giving up a lot of adjusted yards before contact. So, yeah, you have my endorsement on this one. I got a couple player props in this game as well. I'm going back to the Dallas Goddard. Well, why not? One last time here, or maybe two.
Starting point is 00:10:45 Maybe we'll do it again in the Super Bowl. We'll see how the game plays out. But I have Goddard over 37.5 receiving yards. Got it in the first two postings. season games here. He's hit 38 yards and seven of his 11 games. I also think if Hertz is a little bit limited here, I know his rushing yards prop has dropped by about 10 yards compared to where it's normally sitting. It's right around 29 and a half coming into the game. So maybe if he's not going to scramble as much, maybe he has to check it down a little bit more. Maybe that gets Dallas
Starting point is 00:11:19 Goddard, a couple of those targets. But all the numbers are screaming that Dallas Goddard is having a great season here. Washington plays a lot of man coverage and his numbers are really strong against man coverage, averaging 3.61 yards per route run with a 25% target share on those routes. So yeah, I'm going back to the Dallas Goddard well here one last time in the conference championship and go until Alameday Zakias for receiving yards prop. I'm kicking myself, Diami Brown. I wanted to hit that prop. last week. He is so good against man coverage and he dusted the lions. This week, they're going to go
Starting point is 00:12:02 against the Eagles and play a lot more zone coverage. And that's where Zakias, I think, is going to pull, you know, of these secondary receivers for the commander, Zakeas is targeted a little bit more in those type of situations. Eagles are playing a lot of cover four and a lot of cover six. And against those coverages, he's averaging 2.41 yards per route run with a 30% target share. Maybe those numbers are a bit inflated
Starting point is 00:12:30 because one of his best games came against the Eagles in week 16 and probably against those coverages. He went for five catches, 70 yards and two touchdowns. So a little revenge factor as well in the conference championship. So give me Zakias over 20 and a half.
Starting point is 00:12:48 I think it's up to 21 and a half right now and Godder over his receiving yards. Well, I love it, T, bro. And we'll get to the main event. event here, which is the Buffalo, Kansas City game. But first, we've got to hear a little word from our sponsors. Okay, so the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, it feels like it's becoming one of those annual things in the playoffs. I know not always these two teams meet in the playoffs, but it just feels that way. Kind of like it felt like about the old Colts and Patriots back in the Peyton
Starting point is 00:13:15 days and then the Broncos in Patriots back in the Peyton Manning when he was in Denver going up there against Tom Brady. This is the new rivalry. And much like it's been, at least it was early in the Patriots cult rivalry. It has been all Kansas City. That being said, and we've been saying it all year, this feels like the most vulnerable Kansas City team in recent years. Patrick Mahomes' numbers by his standards, lofty standards, are pedestrian. They seem to be winning just one possession game after one possession game. We've got all the controversy about the refs, well, whatever the case, we have Buffalo catching either two or a point and a half. They're essentially plus 1-10 to win the game. So in many ways,
Starting point is 00:14:02 this is about as, it is about as close to a pick-em as you can possibly get with Buffalo catching it against Kansas City. We have an over-under of 47 and a half, which is actually the same over-under as in the Philadelphia-Washington game. So these two games are totaled exactly the same. Tom, I would lean to Buffalo here. I pick Buffalo to win. Buffalo to win. Buffalo, Philadelphia was my pre was my pre postseason Super Bowl pick. I have seen no reason to go off of that, but I don't feel convicted enough with the, with the bills going on the road to Arrowhead to actually take the point in a half.
Starting point is 00:14:41 I'm interested to see what you have to say about. Yeah, I'm doing it. I'm ready to get my heartbroken. Like Bill's fans have three out of the last four post seasons going against the Chiefs. But yeah, I took the two points earlier this week. week, as you said, it's one and a half, but there are some twos out there. So make sure to shop around. Maybe it gets to two and a half, but I don't know.
Starting point is 00:15:04 I feel like the public is starting to turn against the chiefs here a little bit, especially after last week's games, after some of the calls that went against the Texans in that game. So maybe the bills get a little bit more action later in the week. And I think most of the projections and power rankings that are out there, have the bills as the better team and uh i do as well with the uh home field advantage i do think this line is pretty close i would make the chiefs about a one one and a half point favorite so but we're down to as you said joe at the top of the pocket we're down to three games here we got two this weekend in the super bowl i got i got to give an a t s pick for all the games here so
Starting point is 00:15:46 uh i'm going to go with the bills uh we saw this match up earlier this season of course that was the one of the you know premier plays of the season of the season i got to the first you know i'm The bills rolled the dice. Go for it on fourth down. Josh Allen rolls out and gets the 26-yard touchdown run on the play to price the game. They were up at that point, but I think everybody kind of expected Kansas City to go down the field and score and win the game if they didn't convert that fourth down. So they were able to get the touchdown, and they pull off the win as two and a half point favorites at home back in week 11. But these teams are, you know, looking a little bit different here.
Starting point is 00:16:23 but we saw Travis Kelsey come back to life. He only had two catches for eight yards back in week 11. He's back to his playoff ways last week. So I'm going to go with the bills here, though. Give me the points. I think this is going to be a very tight game. As you said, who's going to come down to who makes the mistakes in this game? We saw last week both the Bills and the Chiefs played very clean games,
Starting point is 00:16:47 but they didn't do very much on offense. Not a lot of explosive plays. they let the Texans and the Chiefs make the mistakes and they capitalized on them. So we'll see who plays the cleanest football in this game. For a lot of the year, it's been Josh Allenman and the bills. So I'll trust them to do it in the AFC championship game. Tom, I have finally been afflicted.
Starting point is 00:17:09 I have caught the disease. I have spent so much time with good friend Trey that I have caught Digenitis. Uh-oh. Now let me lay this out to you. Let me see if I can put my best good friend Trey impression out there for you. All right. Over the last five weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs are giving up the single most
Starting point is 00:17:32 schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Over that same span, they're giving up the eighth most receiving yards per game to opposing slot receivers. They've given up the second most, tied for the second most, receptions to opposing slot receivers, and that's in just four games. The Philadelphia Eagles are number one, and they've played an extra game. Over the last five weeks,
Starting point is 00:17:58 the Kansas City Chiefs have given up 85.7% catch rate to opposing slot receivers. That is the most in the NFL. Over the last five weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs have given up three touchdowns to opposing slot receivers. That is tied for third most in the NFL. They are getting crushed by opposing.
Starting point is 00:18:20 slot receivers. So I'm just like, all right, what's Khalil Shakir's bedding line here, right? Oh, 59 and a half, 60 and a half. Whoopty do, right? Let's ladder this, baby. Uh-oh. I am having a Khalil Shakir over 50 receiving yards, over 60 receiving yards, over 70 receiving yards, or these are the at least bets. This is at least 50, at least 60, at least 70, at least 80, at least 90, at least 90, at least 100 receiving yards. Now I'm starting that obviously with a one unit bet, and then I'm gradually going to decrease it until about a quarter of a unit up at the top.
Starting point is 00:19:03 But that is Khalil Shakir's betting line. In his game against the Chiefs earlier this season, eight catches for 70 yards. Well, what do I have there? If he does just that, the first three legs of this ladder hit, and I've already made a huge profit. So I'm getting Khalil Shakir with a 50 to 100 yard ladder receiving yards prop.
Starting point is 00:19:26 He's, he has two 100 yard games on the year. And once I get a little bit closer to game time, you might be able to convince me of a little touchdown prop as well on him. He only has four this year. So it's not, it's not a great number. And, you know, down near the red, he's not a big play guy. So down near the red zone, you always think Josh Allen, James Cook, or elite touchdown scores. But I am laddering Khalil Shakir.
Starting point is 00:19:49 from at least 50 yards to at least 100 yards here in the AFC championship game. Yeah, I like it. And you hit on the slot numbers that the chiefs are giving up, just looking through the fantasy points data. They play a lot of two high safeties, and Khalil Shakir is their guy when they go against two high safeties. He's averaging 2.71 yards per route run in a 28% target share against two high safety looks. So everything is kind of lined up. I like that, that play there. I'm going to go into the middle of the field too here for a little prop.
Starting point is 00:20:24 I have Dawson Knox. We're going with these low end, skanky plays here. But they're splitting the snaps here, splitting the routes. He actually ran one more route than Dalton Kincaid last week. Knox has been involved here. We haven't projected for about 19.8 yards. And I'm taking his over 13 and a half receiving yards at Bet MGM. He's hit 22 yards in six of his last nine games.
Starting point is 00:20:53 We know there's struggles in the slot with Kansas City. They're also really struggling against tight ends. So, I mean, that makes sense. A lot of tight ends playing the slot. And in the middle of the field here, they're giving up the most receiving yards per game, two tight ends in the regular season. That was at 70.1.
Starting point is 00:21:09 And we saw Dalton Schultz getting loose last weekend. Four catches for 63 yards last week. So they're continuing to struggle. against tight ends. I wanted to go Kincaid, but his number's a lot higher. You know, it's sitting in the mid-30s. And for, you know, these two tight ends are splitting routes at this point. If Kincaid was, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:30 running 60 to 70% of the routes, I'd probably go that direction with this prop. But since they're both kind of hovering in that 40 to 50% range, I'm going to go with the lower, you know, the lower total here with Dawson Knox. It's only going to take potentially just one catch, maybe two. Kincades is going to take a little bit more. So going with Knox over 13 and a half receiving yards. It looks like there are some
Starting point is 00:21:54 15 and a halfs out there on the market too. I would still bet that there. I have another prop too, Joe, if you, unless you, you want to jump in with a no. I was spent making that ladder bet. I'm like, I'm done. I was going to say, we'll talk to Trey later. I'm done with my bed. You put some units out there on that bet. So let's let's get a couple of those, at least a couple of those rungs on that ladder. I'm going to go for Xavier Worthy, over four and a half catches here. This was one that was successful for me with DJ Moore back in the regular season. We were consistently hitting his over on his receptions. We track design targets over at Fantasy Points data. And Xavier Worthy is now getting a lot of, he's getting spammed these design
Starting point is 00:22:40 targets here. Two of them in five straight games, 15 designed total targets in five in those five games. He has 32 first read targets in the last four games. So we look over five receptions in six straight games. So he's a big part of this passing game. It was a little bit of a slow start to his rookie season, but he is the main wide receiver in this offense now behind, only behind Travis Kelsey in terms of the overall receiving core. But 84% route share for him last week, which is pretty nice. Their second best route share of the season in the divisional round, we saw Marquis Brown out there a lot as well.
Starting point is 00:23:22 So they're starting to play some of their best receivers. So Xavier Worthy is going to be out there plenty. We know the chiefs are going to throw it. The way that the bills play, they're kind of the two high safeties as well. They're playing back. And they're going to concede these short targets. and stuff. So Xavier Worthy should see a couple of those. And taking his over four and a half receptions, it's minus 132 at Fandall. I think it has been bet up a little bit. But if you get this,
Starting point is 00:23:48 whenever this podcast comes out on Thursday, it'll be minus, it's in the minus 140 to minus 150 range. I would not be surprised if this prop gets to five and a half by the weekend. Okay, T, bro. I'm sure a good friend Trey all week has had crystal blue persuasion kind of blasted in the background as he prepares to cook. We're going to feel, we're going to taste what he has, uh, what he's made for us here after a, another little word from our sponsor. Good friend, Trey Camberling. What's going on, man? How's the, how's the betting going? Look, uh, are you trying to, are you trying to switch up some mojo with the lack of facial hair here? No, I mean, I'll tell you what I've been doing off rip here, is I've been on the phone. I've been talking to, uh, management for, uh, naughty by nature. You know,
Starting point is 00:24:34 the song, Here Comes the Money, Shane McMahon. I'm trying to get that clear for the podcast because I needed that's naughty by nature. Yeah, I needed to get that playing when I came on today. Here comes the money. You know, because I had, I had a weekend. Four for five, just beautiful time up like 2.8 units, which is a great week for Good Friend Trey, if you've been following the podcast. So things are good and I'm hoping to keep the momentum going.
Starting point is 00:25:01 Got, you know, the shade. I was going to say, yeah, he's on the straight and narrow now. Joe and now he's got to clean it all. Do you go to like one of those? You ever get, did you ever get like an old school straight razor shave? No, I never have. There's a barbershop here in town with Meredith, my barber.
Starting point is 00:25:18 Now she'll occasionally do a straight razor shave here. And I only trim it because I look, I cannot even imagine what I look like without even this little dusting of facial hair I have now, just way too young for my age. So I get the, you know, I'll get the little neck beard done there. But a hot lather, straight razor shave, man, you'll never feel, if you've got an old school barbershop in town, treat yourself to that. He's up 2.8 units. He can afford it now.
Starting point is 00:25:45 I'll just get somebody to come to the house. Oh, there you go. He's been cutting his own hair, shaving his, you know, saving his own beard. He couldn't afford it. So now that he's up a couple units, maybe is that a falcons gamers chair recline? A little bit. Yeah. It needs to be a little more than that for a lather and a shave. All the way back. Yeah, you know, I, uh, this week, too, after I hit the big win, I started watching the Sopranos again.
Starting point is 00:26:09 I got some polos and some slacks on the way. You know, I'm just, just, I'm, I'm like that now, I guess, you know. So, well, look, you're, you went four, you went four and one, right? Like, so that's a hell of a week for you. Did you play it on the straight and narrow this week is what I need to know. I'm staying on the straight and narrow, straight shave, you know, straight everything. We're, we're making it happen. And I have three plays this week that I feel good about.
Starting point is 00:26:35 Two basic plays, and then I got a little bonus touchdown action. So I'll start off rip here with the first play. And they're all based around this. Well, the two plays are based around the same kind of concept. But I've got Samajai P. Ryan over eight and a half receiving yards. I got that at minus 115. On Draft Kings, Chris got him projected for about 10. and a half. He's over this number in seven of the last eight games. And as we get deeper into the
Starting point is 00:27:03 playoffs, you know, a lot of these teams condense down to their best players, right? And Samajapirang is not that for the chiefs, but nobody is for the chiefs in the backfield. They've got Pacheco, who's just not there. He's not looking good. And that's Kareem Hunt. So this week is about starring in your role. They're going to need Samajai P. Ryan, and they're going to need Kareem Hunt. So give me the over there. And then quickly, I have Kareem Hunt's rushing yards, over 31 and a half, over three out of the last five games. Like I said, Pacheco, I think people need to kind of tighten this up with him because Isaiah Pacheco, he got a lot of preseason hype this year because, you know, he had a backfield to himself, basically. He's a seventh round draft pick.
Starting point is 00:27:48 He fractured his fibula this year. This isn't Jemir Gibbs coming back from injury. You know, this is a seventh round pick. I know he's exceeded his draft capital, but we got to, I think not only do I think his role is not going to increase. I, in fact, think it's going to decrease. He doesn't look healthy. He's not performing. And I think we see Kareem Hunt get a little more, get some more of the carries.
Starting point is 00:28:09 And I think we see more Samajai Pryan in this game. So give me both of the chiefs running back. Those are my two plays this week. So that's, uh, did you just give any thought to maybe just do a Pacheco under? I mean, if you're just going to go for the complete Pacheco fade here, Did that cross your mind? Or you just don't like betting on it. No, I mean, I think I think an under is just, it's a coward's way to bet.
Starting point is 00:28:30 So I can't, you know, I can't in good conscience put some unders on the book. So I wish I could maybe, I mean, I'm on the straight and narrow, but that's a little too straight and a little too narrow for what I've got going on. Maybe someday we'll get you to bet an under. But, you know, of course, I tried to be a good boy last week. And I put an under in and I even paid a little extra juice for an under because I thought it was so good. And then they designed two targets to James Cook.
Starting point is 00:28:54 And I'm like, come on. Guy hasn't caught a pass in over a month. I guess that was the wrinkle against the Baltimore Ravens. But now, uh, yeah, Trey, have you ever shot craps? That's one of the few games that I, I mean, I've played some bubble craps. I don't really play on the table because I'm not, I don't feel like I'm ready for that level yet. But, uh, yeah, I have, I have, for that level. It's a game I need to learn a little bit more about.
Starting point is 00:29:15 Well, um, the don't pass bar is fractionally a better. bet than the pass bar. But everybody knows you're an asshole at the crafts table if you bet the don't pass bar. So, um, no, it's, uh, it, look, you bet the unders. You say that's a, that's, that's, that's not an exciting bet. I understand that because you're sweating it out the entire game, because one play can undo a victory, you know, and you just don't like that. There's, there's very few overs where one play can undo a victory unless you bet quarterback rushing yards. So, uh, no, I understand that, But, yeah, maybe next, maybe for the Super Bowl, we'll get you in on some unders here. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:54 If they pop, if they pop, you know, I'll take a look at them. But yeah, it's just a little, I like to root for big games, fun games. And, you know, this feels like a Super Bowl worthy matchup, even though it's, you know, a conference championship game. And I want to see points. I want to see some high flying action. And, yeah, no unders for good friend, Trey. Yeah, we were 0 and 2 on the under bets in last week's podcast.
Starting point is 00:30:16 I was on, uh, on Cooper Cup. ooh, Matt Stafford got hot. Maybe Cooper Cups last, like, I mean, not that he was amazing. No, no, that's like, decent game, yeah. Well, and, you know, I said, I said this to my wife, you know, obviously, I should try to have some level of objectivity, but like, I get as feral during an Eagles game as anybody does. I guess it's hard to maintain a level of objectivity when I have what's over my left shoulder.
Starting point is 00:30:46 But nonetheless, um, look, I said to my wife, like, Vic Fangio wants that second to last Rams drive back, bad. You know, and I understand why he did what he did. Like they had the five minutes, you know, and the Rams hadn't been able to move the ball since it started snowing. So he plays the soft coverage and Stafford picks him apart. And then on the final drive, you know, Nakuwa just made a great catch. No, I was an individual. You tip your cap to a guy making a great play.
Starting point is 00:31:12 But, you know, he really changed up the scheme after that. But that's kind of why Cooper Cup went on the over there, I think. Hey, good lesson coming into this week. Keep the foot down. You know, Jaden Daniels is capable. So, you know, maybe that's a good lesson to learn in the divisional round before you go to the conference championship and potentially Super Bowl. Well, it's going to be interesting to see because Jaden Daniels absolutely bitched the
Starting point is 00:31:34 lion's blitz and the Eagles don't blitz, you know. So they did a little bit more in the snow against Stafford. Another quarterback you don't want to blitz, by the way. But in the snow, it affected them a little bit. Anyway, that's enough about me babbling about the. Eagles and looking behind because good friend Trey is still looking forward. Trey, you've got you've got more bets here. I'm looking forward and I'm looking for the end zone with this one.
Starting point is 00:31:57 We got it last week with Terry McLaurin, the latte model I like to call it, said he's scoring a touchdown and we went and we got our touchdown last week. And this play actually projects better than that play did last week. And it's a better number. So I've got James Cook anytime touchdown plus 145 on Fandul. obviously he could get cucked by Josh Allen. He got cucked by Ray Davis last week. But I love the opportunity.
Starting point is 00:32:26 Like I said, unders, not for me. I'm hoping this game's high scoring, fast pace, and I hope the offenses are humming. And I hope he finds the end zone. And not to bring it up,
Starting point is 00:32:36 but with the design target last week, maybe we get it in the form of a receiving touchdown. You know, he did that earlier. Two design targets, not that are good. Three or four touchdown game. I can't remember what it fit.
Starting point is 00:32:46 I think it was three, He caught a touchdown earlier. So we had a little, we got a backdoor receiving touchdown here. But hopefully we just get a nice three yard rushing touchdown to cap a drive off. And we were off to the sunset. That's 0.69 units to win one unit. That's what I got there. Yeah, he had the 27 scrimmage yards against the chiefs earlier this year,
Starting point is 00:33:06 but scored two touchdowns, had five catches as well. So he was heavily involved in that game. So, yeah, just let's not get tired and have Ray Davis come in. like we saw on the first drive of the divisional round. Let's finish off these drives, James Cook. All right, good friend, T-Brow, Tom Brolly. I'm Joe. It's conference championship week, man.
Starting point is 00:33:28 And then, well, we get the Super Bowl of betting, which is the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl. We get that next week. I'm sure we're going to start next week by going over, Tom, like the props, everything that comes out, the initial point spread. But then we're going to be talking about, the Dolan and Broly fantasy points contest, the Super Bowl contest that we like to run.
Starting point is 00:33:54 Well, we'll be giving away fantasy points subscriptions and all that stuff. We'll get that prop contest going. As soon as the props come out, it is fun. And we'll talk about it on next week's show. I'm sure you will be thrilled to know that that contest will be coming back. That's good friend Trey, Tom Brawley. I'm Joe. Enjoy conference championship weekend, everybody.
Starting point is 00:34:15 the last weekend with multiple football games until September. So I hope you really soak it in. I hope you make a lot of bets. And I hope unlike me, you win those bets. Remember, we're not wise. We're just guys. Have a good one, everybody.

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