Fantasy Football Daily - Way-Too-Early 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings w/ Theo Gremminger | School of Scott

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

Welcome to School of Scott, the ultimate fantasy football masterclass hosted by Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com. In this episode, Scott and Theo Gremminger break down the "Way Too Early 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings." Read The Article Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2025/way-too-early-fantasy-football-rankings-top-25#/ Where to find us: http://twitter.com/ScottbarrettDFB http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/the-everything-report-week-4#/ Use promo code SCOREMORE for 10% off your subscription. Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ FantasyPoints Website - https://www.fantasypoints.com NEW! Data Suite - https://data.fantasypoints.com Twitter - https://twitter.com/FantasyPts Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Try them now and have a smooth night. Yo, what is up? If you are tuning in second week of January to a fantasy pod, that means you are an absolute degenerate. That means you're just like me. You're a sicko. And I love you. So thank you for being here.

if you tuned in to School of Scott in the offseason, you were accustomed to me interviewing a really smart, brilliant, wonderful guest. You tuned in during the season. You had the privilege of listening to Theo, interview myself every single week. And so it's back to the off season. I'm going to be hosting today's show. And I have a wonderful guest, no better possible guest than the man himself, who you've been listening to for 17 straight weeks. Theo Greminger back in the school of Scott, but in opposite chairs, he just dropped an absolute banger of an article

way too early, 2025 fantasy football rankings. He is giving you the top 25. I was supposed to make my own list. I was supposed to make my own list and we were going to battle it out with our competing top 25s. I didn't do that.

I'm a little, I'm pretty sidetracked with, CEO stuff right as the season ended. I don't want to give away too much. I just want to say it was an incredible year. I really appreciate everyone who listened to us every week, everyone who's a subscriber. We're so happy to have you as part of the team. We're doing big things, really big things. I don't know how much I can give away, but fantasy points data. The best color commenter you can think of, he uses fantasy points data to prep for his broadcast, single week. The biggest NFL agent you can think of, him and his team use fantasy points data

every single week. At least one really high ranking director of analytics at an NFL company is using fantasy points data every week to try and find the next edge in their upcoming matchup. And so big things are happening behind the scenes. So I've been sidetracked with CEO stuff. So we're going to go through Theo's article here, top 25, and he's on the hot seat. I might be vicious here. He doesn't know what to expect. Theo, Theo, thank you for joining us. What's going on?

This is the first time I, you know, I record all the time. And I'm, this is the first recording I'm doing actually in, in 2025, just got back from a little vacay with the family. I'm rejuvenated. I'm ready for any haymaker you might throw at me. My top 25, it's absolute fire. It's very forward thinking. And I think that this is going to be, some people might be disagreeing with, with a few of these ranks.

But I think that this is the way the market's going to be looking over the next few months. So we'll see how it goes. The early best balls, you know, we'll see where the market is there. I know I'm planning on being one in a couple of weeks at big FFPC one. So I'm ready, Scott. What do you got? All right. Let's start off with 101.

You decided to go with Jamar Chase, even though the Bengals might lose T. Higgins. And Chase was considerably less productive without T. Higgins. You know, Mike Jaseki was outproducing and out targeting him and some of these. No, I love this pick. I'm right on board. Jamar Chase, triple crown, come on, 101. You feel good about it? I feel very good about it.

And I think that the statistical edge he gave you, you don't usually see this big of a gap, between the wide receiver one overall and everyone else. You also have, when you start, we'll get a little bit deeper into the wide receiver ranks, but we can start poking a little bit of holes into some of the other players, like Justin Jefferson now has target competition from Jordan Addison, target competition from T.J. Hawkinson. When it comes to Chase, he's the unquestioned leader of this room. T. Higgins had this phenomenal season.

I don't think he's going to be back. I don't think that this is a, I don't think it's like a 100% he's gone, like some people are saying. I'm projecting him to leave, but let's say he does leave. I think, I mean, it'll be, it would be the best thing for him in terms of his production, not necessarily his wallet. I think some of these teams like Carolina, New England, Washington could completely, you know, treat him with the same regard as like Chase might get salary wise. I think T. Higgins' open market is going to get more than Nico Collins and Jalen Waddle got last year. So we'll see. But I think that this is a franchise and an offense that if they lose T. Higgins, you'll see them draft a wide receiver or they'll sign someone.

There's plenty of wide receivers they could get on a lesser deal that they could plug in and maybe not get the same role. But I think there'll be a strong wide receiver two role, like Chris Godwin in the wide receiver two role, different one, sort of like a supercharged Tyler Boyd type role. Like we'll see them figure it out. I don't think it's going to be like Andre Yoshivas and Jermaine Burton on day one opposite Jamar Chase. And we're like, oh, no, he's going to get doubled every game. I think they'll figure it out.

So, yeah, I think Chase is the chalk. He's also in that perfect age group, age range where there's still some upside there. Like, why can't he be a 200 target guy next year? Yeah, what was weird was, you know, targets came down. like the first half of the season, we talked about this on the Everything report where he was seeing less volume and the games where he saw less volume.

Higgins kind of becoming more of the PPR cheat code until very late in the season. He was more productive for that and for it. And that was also true of his rookie season. I think he's just like kind of a can't miss where it's just like elite alpha wide receiver one. I think he could be a hyper-efficient lower target guy. I think he could be a target hog if he wants.

So I take no issue with Jamar Chase as the 101. I think that's a good call. 102, you have Saquan Barclay. And I can't really nitpick this too much in a year where like every analyst was proven wrong on Saquan Barclay. Who was the most valuable player in fantasy in 2024? It was Saquan Barclay in two wide receiver leagues, in three wide receiver leagues. It was Jamar Chase, but it was so close between those two guys.

But I think I have no problem with us, but I think you're going to see people nitpick this and drive him down because you're going to look back at the injury history with the giants, the efficiency issues with the giants. I know this is a much better team. And then you're going to get the regression to the mean nerds of which I am one that say this isn't sustainable. Like look at all these long runs he had. This has never been done before. every season in which this was done, you see a heavy regression to the mean in the following season. Look at Jalen Hertz, touchdown vultures, the tush push. It's just not sustainable. Do you have a counter to this? Do you feel really good about 102 or is that a concern? No, I think for me, 102 to 105 is sort of flat with all exciting backs. But I'll say this. One thing that you do very well, Scott, every offseason is dive in.

into the offensive coordinators. And I think that another thing that Sigmund Bloom has often discussed is we get super excited about talking about the brand new signal callers, what these guys are going to bring to the table. But we don't pay enough attention to year two offensive coordinators. And I think that Kellyn Moore, maybe he found his footing. He sort of was able to roll with the punches. There was, things went wrong with this Philadelphia offense.

They missed Dallas Goddard for part of the year, missed DeVantza Smith. for parts of the year, missed A.J. Brown for parts of the year. Like the sort of the one constant was Sequin Barclay. This is one where I don't know. I mean, even if he regresses 20%, he's still not going to hurt you if we get this sort of production last year, like minus like 20%. If he goes down 10%, there's a couple of variables too, like maybe the receiving numbers go up. He just looked so comfortable in this offense that I don't know. I think there's still some meat left on the bone before we start talking about fading him simply because he had such a fantastic season.

All right. Before we get to our next one, which is a spicy one, which will ensure a debate between us, a quick word from our sponsors. All right, Theo, 103, Jemir Gibbs. And on one hand, I get it. There's no David Montgomery, far and away, the most valuable running back and fantasy, easily one of the best running backs in all of football. The dude is awesome.

I just worry, we didn't learn anything new about him. It's, you know, David Montgomery got hurt and he balled the F out. It was the same thing as last year. But what happens if there's a healthy David Montgomery? Are you drafting this guy as the RB2? It's just going to be the RB8 because it's a 50-50 commas. committee alongside this other guy who was much less talented than he is, but it's this this stubborn commitment to that running back by committee situation. So Montgomery stays healthy.

You know, that's not great for you. And like, let's not forget Montgomery, before he got hurt, just signed an extension with the lion. So I don't see them moving away from him. Maybe how good he looks now. Maybe we see something different in the playoffs. And it's like, Oh, no, no, no, no. He's the bell count now, but it feels like that's fully baked in. What do you think? When I look at Jemir Gibbs, it's like when we start searching for league winners, it's this sort of talent profile where the guy averaged 21 points per game this year. And I know some of that scoring numbers were backloaded into week 18,

where nobody was getting any of those points except for DFS players. But at the end of the day, it's like, we had this discussion a few weeks back where I'm, made this prediction to you that I said, I thought Jemir Gibbs would end up being like the 103 and the Dark Horse 101. David Montgomery has sort of been, let's say, exceeding expectations for him in back-backed seasons. Like, I think Montgomery's production has been about as good as it can get for David Montgomery. Jumeer Gibbs, on the other hand, has 31 touchdowns in his first two seasons in the league. You're talking about legendary numbers. He has more touchdowns. than Barry Sanders does, did at this point in his career, more touchdowns than Ladanian Tomlinson

had at this point in his career. I think it's time that we take a step back and just say, Jemir Gibbs is one of the most talented offensive players in football. He has the ability to average 25 points per game. We also have the factor that Ben Johnson might not be there. And most people will say this is a negative for the offense as a whole. And I would tend to agree with that. But I do think that the next man in might be less inclined to use two backs at the same level that Johnson did. That was sort of the same at the MO. Johnson had, you know, the year with DeAndre Swift and Jamal Williams, where they both finished inside RB2. He had the last year with Gibbs and Montgomery. And then this year where it looked like both were going to be RB1s. And then

of course Montgomery goes down and Gibbs makes this run up to like RB2 overall. So for me, I just think it's more of a bet on the talent. The offense is still going to be very good. It's still one of the best offensive lines in football. And I'm not going to let the presence of David Montgomery prevent me from drafting a guy. I mean, Scott, we're talking about seven touchdowns in like a six-day period down the year. The guy looks incredible and the home run hitting ability. And I'll say this, when he came into the league,

I'm sure you and Brett Whitefield at the time discussed this guy's past catching ability is legendary. This is going to be Christian McCaffrey. This is going to be Reggie Bush. He hasn't hit that ceiling at all. He hasn't had the usage as a receiver. If the next offensive coordinator says, you know what, I'm going to get this guy all the targets as well. Then we're talking about a new ceiling opened up. So I think for me, it's really like with, and I talked to Ryan as well about this.

because when I first gave these rankings to Ryan, he wanted me to put A-chan ahead of-head of Gibbs. Of course he did. I just can't do it. I have A-chan. Hi, but Gibbs is very special talent, and he'll only be 23 years old next year. This is a guy where I don't think we've seen what a ceiling season looks like from Gibbs.

I'm extremely bullish. I hope to have a lot of exposure to Gibbs. It was a very, very profitable dynasty season for me with a ton of exposure to Gibbs. next year, I want to have a lot of exposure to him in redraft because I think this guy could really, really break fantasy next year if it all kind of swings his way. Yeah, you had me on your show actually to talk about him before the draft that year. And I said he was Alvin Kamara reincarnated knowing full well, like how blasphemous that sounds.

And to me, that's exactly what he looks like. And if that's the case, you can hand wave the committee concerns. Like maybe he's just that good. And he looks it for sure. still, I think it's a mistake to have him above your 104. Bejohn Robinson hit 17.5, draft Kings fantasy points and 11 of his last 12 games was the overall RB1 from week six on. Usage kept improving, volume kept climbing.

I think the offense runs through him. I think he's, you know, another sick talent. We've been kind of starved for elite running back talents ever since that. I don't know, legendary Kamara year that also had Kareem Hunt and Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones and whatever. And this year's class is stacked. Last year's class is good year before that. So Bejohn Robinson 104, I would probably have him above Gibbs personally.

Yeah, I mean, there's really no wrong answer here. I think that Robinson's the safer pick. But I think like the, for me, it's, I think Gibbs might have the highest ceiling. And I'll agree with you. I do think that the Falcons, I even wrote it in the article. I think that the Falcons could enter the season even more running back centric in their touches. You know, you had going from cousins to Pennix, we have such a small sample size. It's only a three-game sample size with Pennix.

But I was pretty impressed with what I saw. And I do think that Bejohn is about as safe as it gets. He's a stud. He's a two-way player. The touchdown ceiling was extremely high this year. The total yardage was there. I mean, Bejohn's an absolute stud. Those guys are, I mean, they're very much.

in the top four. You could have put Bejohn ahead of Sequin. I wouldn't want to argue with you about that one either. Okay. Next one is Devon A-chan. I'm sure if this were Ryan, he would have him as the 101. One thing I think is funny is like, I don't know why regression works this way, but it just seems to constantly work this way, where everyone like heading into the

season is like A-chan as a top regression candidate. It's like, yeah, no shit. He just had the best yards per carry season in NFL history. Of course he's, but then up until like three weeks. ago, he was like dead last and rushing yards over expectation per carry after, you know, leading the league. And the same thing have with Tony Pollard, same thing have with Leonard Furnett one year, Joe Mixon, one year.

So I don't know why it went from like best to worst. It just tends to work like that. But you did see the explosive plays come back these last three weeks. Usage volume out of this world. You know, we're talking about Jemir Gibbs as Alvin Kamara. He's had 52 catches in back-to-back years. A-chan had what, nearly 80 and 600 yards. And we know he has that upside as a runner to potentially break records and yards per carry.

I do worry about things looking more like a running back by committee situation. It wouldn't surprise me if he draft someone. But A-chan top five, I think that's right. I feel good about that. Yeah, and I'll add that I think that this is a guy that you could see him with 100 targets next year. There's also the rumblings that Tyree Kill might want out. I think this could end up being kind of an offseason of change in Miami. If Tyree Kill does move on, it already went from a Tyree Kill offense to a Devon A. Chan offense, like, rapidly.

And if Tyree Kill's gone next year and they enter the season with like Jalen Waddle, Malik Washington, and whoever at the wide receiver spot, then I think you could see them fully commit to using A Chan as a receiver. receiver even more than they did this year. So I think that's an exciting one. Agreed. Not too much to talk about it. He's an absolute stud. And I'd like to say anybody who listened in to you, Ryan, myself, last offseason. I hope you enjoyed your A-chan season because the guy was awesome this year. All right. Next up, we have six wide receivers in a row. We have Justin Jefferson six, Pooka, seven, C.D. Lamb, eight, Amun, Ross, St. Brown, nine. Nico Collins 10, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. 11, rookie Malik neighbors, 112.

We're going to debate this in a little bit. But first, I want to say, how are you feeling about this round one? Does this not look like one of the best deepest round ones? We're like 112 is a great place to be. Yeah, and it's funny because we talked about this earlier today that the last two years, if you're drafting at the 112, it wasn't looked at as like, hey, this is the nuts. spot. So the worst turned out easily. But the last two years, people were, but it's turned out that way.

Yeah. CD lamp, CD Lamb two years ago. CD Lamb seen round, round one turn, which was two nuts guys to have. This year it was what Gibbs, Barclay. Barkley was there. And then I was drafting with Nelson Sousa in the New York Super in the NFFC. And Jamar Chase was falling into like the 110. So like the 110, 11, 112, 112.

This past off season. And it was, you know, you have to have that 101. This is the Christian McCaffrey. You got to get that Christian McCaffrey. And then Tyree Kill and CD Lam were looked at as these like elite assets to get at the number two and number three spots, however you ranked them. And it turned out to be another year where the back end was just awesome. So it could end up being that way again. And yeah, I mean, I ranked all these wide receivers.

I tend to gravitate towards wide receivers as much as possible. And I think this is going to be a really special year for the position. we had this year the running back scoring was way, way up. These things have a way of sort of correcting themselves, and next year could be the revenge of the wide receiver. And I think a number of these guys are in that age range where they're in their primes, they have very, very strong roles. These guys are all capable of absorbing a high level of targets.

And then when you look at certain guys, the touchdown scoring numbers could be absolutely wild. And the talent, just pure talent, of this range of wide receivers is awesome. So I think you could change this order up. The one guy that I think people are sort of soured on is Nico Collins in this range where I've had some pushback on this one. You were saying you were too low or too high.

Yeah, they were saying I was a little bit high on this one. Wow, no, I think maybe too well. Well, so you've made a very strong argument for Nico for, you know, this entire season. And this was one where it looked like he was going to be the league winner. Then obviously he deals with some injuries. And the Houston offense has sort of gone south. But I think that right now, people are extremely low on C.J. Stroud,

extremely low on Bobby Sloick. They have an opportunity to sort of regain the faith in the NFL playoffs. Maybe that Nico goes off and people sort of are like totally agreeing with this one. For me, I just think Nico Collins, he's averaged like 17. and a half points per game for two straight seasons. He's right there if he can stay healthy, that if everything goes well for him with his role, you could be talking about a guy who puts up 21, 22 points per game,

challenges for the wide receiver one overall, and has a like P. Cooleo Jones type outcome. I think you've made that comparison. And I think the more you think about it, he's sort of in that quality of player where he makes the grown-ass man touchdowns. he's able to get behind a defense he's able to absorb a higher number of targets than maybe we would have thought two years ago uh so i'm i'm cool with where i have neko i still think that i don't want to put him up as as high maybe as you would i just have less question marks when it

comes to a guy like puka a guy like a cd lamb those guys are just so locked in right now yeah i i love the player like he's he's he's he's kind of like a j brown clone too to me it's just he has cj shroud as as his quarterback. Shroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever this year. He's analytically one of the worst quarterbacks in football. So if you get a middle of the road outcome, I could see him as a league record. But honestly, I thought this ranking at 110 is fine. This isn't the one I would fight you with the most. But we'll get to that right after this commercial break. When you're flying Emirates business class, enjoying a good night's rest in your lie flat seat. You'll see

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Try the season's hottest flavors from the PC Holiday Insiders Report. Please feast responsibly. All right, two things I want to fight you on. Jefferson versus Puka. To me, it's easily Pooka. Like, the best wide receiver in football the last two years by all of my favorite stats, yards per route run, first downs per route run, fantasy points per route run, X-P per route run.

I just think he's that dude. I think he's, you know, like he could have that Cooper Cup season, the record-breaking season easily this year. I think Stafford's coming back. I'm not too worried about that. I am a little worried about Cooper Cup, who ghosted these last few weeks. I have to think Puka steps up in a big way.

What do you think about that? I think both of those guys are excellent. With Justin Jefferson, I've seen a wide receiver one. overall season out of him already. With Puka, it's something where it's really splitting hairs on this one, to be honest with you. Puka, I made a prediction the other day. I dropped these predictions, 20 predictions for the 2025 season. And I said that I think Pukua is going to break the NFL record for receptions in a season.

I think he's going to get 150 receptions this year. And I think he can be the next 200 target player in the league. I think that's in the range of outcomes. So there's been three players who have hit 200 targets. Puka looks like the kind who can do it. He's average enough targets per game that if he can just stay healthy and take that next step where Cups a year older and Nakua just kind of takes on an even larger role,

I think the sort of like peak Michael Thomas type season or better, somewhere in between Michael Thomas, wide receiver one overall season, and Cooper Cups wide receiver one overall season. Somewhere in between those two guys could be in the wheelhouse. He's fantastic. But when it comes to Jefferson, I mean, gosh, it seems like it's really hard to go for me to rank Justin Jefferson low. This was a transition season. Next year could potentially be year two for Sam Darnold, where maybe a little bit more familiarity.

This was the transition season. I think it's J.J. McCarthy and they go more run heavy. Well, you know, that could happen as well. So if that's the case, and I think that Darnold does move on, then I think you probably flip these two guys and you just take Nkua. And it's sort of the unknown upside drafter is going to gravitate towards Nakuwa as well. He'll be in year three. The one thing with Chase that we didn't bring up was it's exceedingly difficult to repeat as wide receiver one overall.

Cooper Cup was going to do it if he didn't get injured. At least we think he would have. It's hard to imagine him. that much if he didn't get injured the year Jefferson finished as the wide receiver one overall. You have to go back to like Antonio Brown to find a wide receiver one overall that repeated. It's just so many things can go wrong. A guy can catch fewer touchdowns. A guy can miss a couple games with injury.

An offense can regress. With Nakua, we love the offensive situation for him. Sean McVeigh has been one where if you follow Scott's work on offensive coordinators, that's one of the coordinators that you really, really want to bet on. So we have a lot of boxes sort of checking off with Nakua and the fact that he's entering year three. Everything's sort of slowed down to a point where you could see Nakua have like a break fantasy type season.

So if you're an unknown upside guy and you want to take the guy with maybe the highest possible ceiling, go with him. If you want to go with a little bit more of a player you've sort of seen reach that outcome, he'll be bracketed by the two former wide receiver one overalls. in Jefferson and Lamb. So I'm okay with all those guys. It's a really exciting group of wide receivers, though. If I can walk out of my draft with two of these guys

because someone wants to push Josh Jacobs up, push Derek Henry up, I'm happy going wide receiver, wide receiver. I love it. And Scott, you're not even talking about the two guys that I'm most excited to talk about is Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. Okay, all right, all right. I mean, now that's my start. So I did want to say one last thing on Puka Nakuwa.

I would be happy to take him 101. I don't know that he's my 101, but I would be, I would be fine with Puka. Like, that's how good or deep this 2025 feels in comparison to other years where it's like, there's a clear delineation between 106 and 101 or whatever. I would be, I would be fine with Puka 101. Is that crazy to you? Is that a hot? No, I don't think it's, it's a little hot take.

Going anybody, anybody over Jamar Chase, right at the 101 for me is a hot take right now. Chase is just unbelievable. PR league? I don't know. Maybe I'm just a love drunk on Puka. But yeah, let's talk about these rookies. I don't want to beat right now I'm just beating you up on guys who are like one pick next to each other. So like that doesn't seem fair. But I would definitely go neighbors over BTJ. I mean, the bottom line is like these guys look elite. They're insanely talented. I gravitate more towards neighbors with dayball still with the Giants. I think that's a big point. The dude just had the best target share and first read target share of any wide receiver in fantasy points

data history. That is the most important stat to me, more predictive than anything else, although they were all close and all the other stats I care about. BTJ also went off with Evan Ingram out and Christian Kirk out and Gabe Davis out. But like that doesn't really, the dude just freaking awesome. It's also by the way that neighbors outproduced him when they were on the same team together in college. I think you get the Giants a shitty bridge quarterback, just like a Kirk cousin or Sam Darnold, whatever. Like I think, I think we could be taking him 101 and in 2026 so easy.

And I don't know that I feel as strongly about BTJ, but I do know for like from a dynasty perspective, like give me all the BTJ. And you and I were all over that and everything. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think it's sort of, okay. So we have another trend and the trends are all. always like our friends when we're trying to chase this sort of thing. The last four seasons, the wide receiver one overall has led the NFL in targets and in catches. So if we're going

to project which guy is going to have that sort of outcome where he could lead the league and catches, lead the league in targets, it's absolutely Malik neighbors. This is a guy where he's an absolute target magnet. Everyone talks about Brock Bowers, how he broke the Pukunakua record. but Malik neighbors also broke it. He set the record for the most receptions by a rookie wide receiver ever, and also a record for the New York Giants in his first season. So he's the target magnet. He's the one.

But when you start talking about Brian Thomas Jr., to me, it's a little bit of a squint, and you see Peak Josh Gordon. And anybody who was around during that time frame, it's like, hey, man, you want some of that Josh Gordon, who's not necessarily going to get you a 20, target game like Malik Neighbors will, but a guy who just might impose his will and have this insane Julio Jones-like outcome. So for me, I think both of them are appropriate picks. Neighbors definitely is the safer one. The guy is just so good at absorbing targets. You bring up the first

read rate, it's incredible what Neighbors has done. And yeah, when you compare the two at LSU, it's not even close. It was Neighbors as well. So, yeah, you know, maybe it should be neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. Flip-flopping, but I'm happy to exposure to both this year. I think they're both awesome. And yeah, we've been all over both those guys. So I mentioned this on, and I think your show, I got inside sources on Malik Neighbors versus BTJ and LSU.

And it was, my source was telling me is like, don't read too much into the target discrepancy. Neighbors was a bit of an asshole, like in a good way where he, like, demanded the ball. Whereas like BTJ was more laid back. So the target discrepancy was more of a factor of like keeping this guy happy. But like, that's what I wanted a PPR league. It's like, give me the assholes. Like, if I don't get 10 targets every game, I'm going to cause a problem. And here's a good stat for you.

Most fantasy points per game from a rookie wide receiver since 1990, the year I was born, one OBJ, two Randy Moss, three Malik neighbors, four Jamar Chase, insane year from neighbors on a shitty, shitty team. Don't underrate just how shit. that like Jaguars were bottom seven, sure, but like Giants were bottom one with a big gap between them and like the next least competent offense in football. Also, we're not talking about Ladd-McConkie. These wide receivers are great. You know, who led in ass, Ladd-McConkey, who led in yards per route run, first downs per route run, yards per target, yards per target

over-expectation, mistackles force per catch, Ladd-McConkey issues with target volume. but we'll get to him. Is he in the top 25? No, he didn't make it. That's one where it's sort of like a, what I had like when we get down to it, there's a number of running backs who get crammed in in the bottom of the 25.

If push come came to shove and it's, I'm drafting, I'd go lad over those two guys. So I'm with you, Ladd-McConkie's awesome. I think that this is one where, especially you're in a dynasty league right now, you might be able to get some Ladd

McConkey. I don't think that the market is sort of moved with the other two guys ahead of them, despite his incredible season. I think people are still sort of waiting for something bad to happen where charges add another wide receiver, something like that. But I think at the end of the day, Ladd is really, really special. Just a great class of wide receivers towards the top. But Ladd, he could have easily been in there. Yep. Next up is another rookie. Any guesses folks at home and who it is? I think there's an argument to be made. You could take them above the two wide receivers we just mentioned, which is just a testament to how freakish this dude is.

Brock Bowers, tight end. We all know rookie tight ends typically struggle, and then they have that breakout sophomore season. Not the case for Brock Bowers, who if he were led all tight ends and fantasy points. If he were a wide receiver, he would have been the wide receiver nine, just behind CD Lamb on the year.

And this is something we talked about during our prospect research is like, okay, he's the greatest tight end prospect ever, but just how freakish is he? Because this is a stacked wide receiver class. And if he were in my model as a wide receiver, he'd be a generational wide receiver. And then you have to factor in that tight end points go such a farther long way to helping your team than wide receiver points because, you know, the talent gap there is so massive. It's an absolute cheat code. most receptions by any rookie in NFL history,

Malik Neighbors is two, Pooka Nkua 3, massive upside. This dude is just a freak of nature. I love him. I want him on all my teams. 201. Brock Bowers, what's his upside? Does he have eventual like top three overall pick upside? Yeah, and I think that it'll be interesting to see where he ends up in the

FFPC and tight end premium ADP because I think that he's going to be up there with the top three, top four. And there'll be some leagues where people just take them one. I get the one-on-one. I don't know how many times I'm going to get the one-on-one. I'm going to make sure I get Brock Bowers. And when we talk about him on a historical note, he had the third most receptions all time in a single season at the tight end position. So I think next year the natural progression is for him to pass Zach Ertz by and set the record in year two. I think that he also, the other record to keep an eye on that Pucanakua probably would have gotten this year had he not gotten injured is the two-year record, which is shared by Justin Jefferson, Amun-Raw St. Brown, and Michael Thomas for the most receptions in a two-year period in NFL history. So for a tight end to give you that sort of an edge is absolutely scary.

A few factors could fall into place. We don't know what the quarterback situation is in Las Vegas heading into next year. It can't be much worse, Theo. It can't be much worse. It can't be, but there is a, maybe a small chance. It might be a OC to start the year. Depending on how this draft class, not to get to draft class focus, but it's not the deepest class for quarterbacks.

And you bring up Sam Darnold. After Sam Darnold, it's not too deep of a class for free agent quarterbacks either. So there's not exactly a number of players that are sort of elevate Brock Bowers in terms of quarterback landing spots. maybe they get a second chance quarterback. Maybe some guy like Kirk Cousins is like a bridge quarterback there. So greed, it can get better. But the chances that you're going to just get a Shudur Sanders, a Cam Ward, or a Sam Darnold, that might not happen.

So it might still be another year of really, really poor quarterback play. It sort of caps the touchdown ceiling a little bit for Bowers. But I do think that when you have an entire offseason to prepare for, how are we going to maximize his usage? Last year, we didn't have that. We had him sort of being able to coexist with Devante Adams. And then the role sort of became elevated throughout the year, obviously with Adams gone. So he'll start the year with this absurd target ceiling. I mean, when you talk about a positional edge, Bowers gives you all of it, anything you'd ever want.

Last year, I compared him to a bigger Jordy Nelson playing tight end. And the haters, the haters came at me on that one. Where are you guys now? Where are you guys now? That is a sexy comp. And I said with a little shit and shot mixed in. So yeah, that's a good one. So Brock Bowers is the truth.

But I will say that here's the one argument is I don't want to hear that. I have Trey McBride at 23, not to believe 23. To me it's he's also gives you this incredible edge at the tight end spot where his target share actually was higher than Bowers. And Trey McBride, this is a guy where I hate to say positive touchdown regression, but no matter what, we can criticize Kyler all we want. And certainly there's going to be people who are very effusive in their criticism of Kyler. But Kyler's still going to be better than anything that Vegas puts behind center next year, barring some big move.

So for me, McBride is closer to Bowers than maybe the market wants to realize. I think that sometimes we get, and we should, get head over heels with what Bowers was able to do. But I think we should be even more excited about Trey McBride than we are. I really do think it's a big two at the tight end spot. There's your guy, George Kittle, there's going to be a couple other people we want to draft next year. But at the end of the day, if we simply just took away the tight end distinction, both of these guys are just incredible target magnets. And there's no reason to think that they can't exceed what they did this year. Trey McBride also 25 years old

perfectly in that wheelhouse to take another step forward. Bowers, of course, rookie. So it's really a, the change in the guard is complete. We went from like the Travis Kelsey years. Now it's the Bowers and McBride years. Yeah, I mean,

I think Bowers is kind of due for touchdown regression too. He only had five. McBrown only had one receiving touchdown, but he had, what, two more? Two rushing. Two rushing. So anyway, dude,

I love Bowers. We just talked about three. really exciting rookie wide receivers are receivers you know who we didn't talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. I got a question for you Theo. Dynasty League wide receiver designation for both. Are you taking Bowers? Are you taking Marvin Harrison Jr.? Bauer's, no question. And I'm not on the, I'm not on the, I'm not on the, I'm not on the, I actually think there's going to be a window this offseason if you're playing Dynasty to trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. who's getting extremely beat up by everyone right now.

And again, Marvin Harrison Jr. is really getting punished for us inflating him in ADP in redraft. I don't think that he's bad. I think they used him poorly. But at the end of the day, how can you not go Bowers over Marvin Harrison Jr. right now? Like, the, Mark Bowers is just incredible.

For him to get this sort of outcome as a rookie, like, we can't downplay it. The prince who was promised and the one who is not. Theo, this is, it's official. I am, I am taking the V away from Marvin Harrison. He's now either, should I give him the L? Is he Marlon Harrison? Are we going to- Don't do it.

Don't do it. He needs two consecutive 100-yard games to earn the V-back. Right now, he's Marlon Harrison to me. Well, you know, I mean, we'll see what happens. next year. I think it'll just, it could, sometimes we have this thing with these wide receivers where the guy didn't completely fall flat on his face historically, though.

Like the final numbers are, okay enough where people are still going to be so punitive with the other guys in his class outscoring him, sort of like what we saw with Jackson Smith and Jigba, where JASN got pushed down last year. JASN got pushed down below a lot of these rookie wide receivers and JISN ended up producing at ADP. So I think we could get to that point with Marvin Harrison Jr.

I think that the market is going to be a little bit higher on him ADP-wise, where there's going to be a little bit of resistance point with just how far Marvin Harrison Jr. can fall because I think people will still say, hey, I'm not going to let these guys get Marvin Harrison Jr. that late. But yeah, it's certainly if we're redrafting the class, he'd be going behind McConkey as well. All right. I won't give him the L. I'll give him the T.

He's now Martin Harrison. And I won't call him by any other name. on School of Scott until he gets back to back 100-yard games. Next one on your list, A.J. Brown, I know people said, oh, he feels like he could be five spots higher, and I think that's fine. I think it's just a testament to how deep this tier is. I'm totally comfortable with where you have him, just because the Eagles just finished dead last in past attempts per game and how high you have Sequin Barkley. This is fine. And then I think there's a big tier. I personally think, or maybe it's just I don't feel

great about your what is it, 203, number 15, Josh Jacobs. And then you have a 20, 25 rookie right behind him who I'd rather take. We'll get into that in just one second, one final word from our sponsors. And so next up you have, you have number 15, Josh Jacobs, 16, Ashton, Gene T, 17, Chase Brown. I don't love the Josh Jacobs call. I get it. He's super productive down the a stretch. But the team really liked Marshawn Lloyd. They kept talking about him, having a clear role, the Aaron Jones role. And you did see Jacobs in that committee role. And it seemed like they were kind of saving, you know, let's keep him here. And then Marshaun Lloyd steps in. And he just had like horrific injury luck as a rookie, never got to

play. So that's my bias there. I'll let you defend it in a second if you want to. Ash and Gene T, though, I think I'd put him in that top tier. I don't. see too many concerns. I think whatever team drafts him, drafts him as an Uber Belkow. Brett Whitefield is going to disagree based on film study, but to me, this is the best prospect to come out since at least Saquan Barclay, maybe the best since Christian McCaffrey in my model. Freak talent, former wide receiver in high school, caught a ton of passes two years ago. Didn't catch a ton of passes last year. What he did was break a ton of rushing records. So I think whatever team takes him is going to deploy him with an insane amount of volume,

ideal usage, Uber Belkow. He gets me excited. I think that's a player where if you're drafting bestball teams today, you draft him wherever he is and know that he's going to jump around immediately after the draft. Chase Brown, I think he was awesome. I mean, clearly the usage volume was awesome, but I do worry if they really trust him. I think Bengals have too many issues on defense. to really address it. So that's probably a good pick and probably a good value there. Honestly,

I would take over Josh Jacobs. Any quick, quick counters to anything I just said? No, it was more of a, the ranking for Jacobs is about as high as it could have been, where the other two guys, I think there's a little more room for growth. I'm glad you brought up Gentie as a receiver. I'm writing another article about dream landing spots. You'll be able to read that at fantasy points soon. But one thing, that I discussed was the 39 catch season that he had in 2023. And it wasn't like that was like one big spike week where they happened to use him as a receiver. He had seven games with at least four catches in that span.

So this is a guy where they really leaned on him as a receiver and it was recent enough. He's exceptional. We used your term the Scott Barrett Uber Belkow. This is your Uber Belkow. Like at the end of the day, if you asked me to bet, on who has the most running back touches next year and I had to rank guys. I will bet that Gentie is a top five in running back touches next season without even knowing the landing spot because he's just going to command them.

He's awesome. The best story about him, and I'll give Bruce Feldman the shout on this, the shout on this one, 605 pounds squat at Boise State. And the only reason it wasn't higher is because the strength and conditioning coaches would not let him go past 605. They would not allow him to put more weight on the bar. So you're talking about a guy, we don't even know the strength level. Everything about him just screams incredible usage. And there's been a very strong track record for these guys that get drafted in his range, returning value in year one. You talk about seasons by guys like Sekewan Barkley, guys like

Zeke Elliott. You can go down the list. There's been plenty of them. So I think that like, comes to shove, it's gentie. But at the end of the day, like, Josh Jacobs, this is the offensive focal point in Green Bay. I know that historically Matt LaFleur likes using two backs. I was big on Marshawn Lloyd as well, but I do think that there is something to be said that it's been the Josh Jacobs show. A lot of it's occurred over the second half of the season.

I do think when you draft him, you're going to get off to a very fast start in terms of running back volume. But it does feel really weird for me to push a guy who was getting drafted at like 36 overall up to 15 overall. So this is probably one, when I do an update to this article, he's probably going to be a little bit lower. He probably should be lower than that guy who's going to be like 31 next year as well, if we want to go with like an older running back who gets a ton of carries and a ton of

touchdowns. But yeah, Genti's definitely like at the end of the day, he's probably going to be with those wide receivers in the end of round one. Okay. All right. GNT6, Chase Brown, 17, 18, Drake, London. 19 Derek Henry 20, Breece Hall.

Breece was so frustrating. He just seemed to lose his top end speed this year, and it really sucked all the upside out of him. I don't have a great read on him. 21, Bucky Irving, that is spicy, that is sexy. And then we get to 2020, then we get to 22, which is we might come to blows on. I don't know what you squat, Theo.

I just know it's a lot more than me. But we'll save that. We'll save that. quick hit on Drake London, Derek Henry, Breeze Hall, Bucky Irving. Who do you want to keep up for? Who's most exciting to you there? Well, I think at the end of the day, if three-game sample size gets you excited, then Drake London, when we start talking about a guy who could lead the NFL in catches,

lead the NFL in targets, being the wide receiver one overall for four straight seasons now, Drake London has a 39% target share in the three games that Michael Pennix has started. This is a guy who had 100 catches this year. This is still a very young player. This is still a player that is ascending and very comfortable with the quarterback there. So Drake London's one where if you're in the middle of the second round and you don't know who to pick, just take Drake London. And I don't think this pick would hurt you at all.

And at the end of the day, I think he's probably a quote unquote safer pick than the running backs around him where Scott has question marks on several of these guys. Henry I mean you had to pick one and you picked the one I happen to disagree with the most Okay but then go for it so you're you're citing a three game sample for Drake London The first game darnel mooney outproduced him more receiving yards the next game mooney got hurt The next game mooney set out and what you're left with this happened accidentally Because I had to keep up for my guy christian watson his career might be over after this ACL poor went out heartbreaking but the 2022 wide receiver class in games with a route share 60% or better christian

watson 1 13.9 fantasy points per game garrett wilson two chriselabbe 3 james and williams 4 then drake london 5th jorge pick and 6 i don't know i don't it seems like every year he's he goes higher than i would like or i think he deserves so i never end up with him i don't i don't want to turn this into a battle before we get into 22, which is definitely a battle. So I'll give you a quick. 45.1 first read rate on fantasy points data, also with Michael Penix. And at the end of the day, like, I mean, I get it. Darno Mooney was really, really good this year.

But at the end of the day, he's still Darnel Mooney. London's the alpha. We're not going into a season thinking this is going to be a Kyle Pitts season ever again. It's very clearly Drake London. I think next year could be very consolidated with a lot of Bejohn touches, a lot of Drake London, and then the other guys sort of are the role players. Mooney was, again, Mooney had like his best season ever as a pro in a number of metrics. So there's a chance that he regresses.

And also when we get to younger quarterbacks like Pennix, there is potential that he could be a little bit more hyper-focused on a single target than maybe Cousins who has been in the league a long time and would spread the ball around for better or for worse. So I'll be a little bit more bullish than you are on London. And I think this is one we could kind of talk about all offseason on School of Scott. Theo, this could be a five hour long show, honestly. One thing.

It's awesome. I'll say one more thing. I promise myself I wouldn't do it. The narrative on Pennix coming out was like, he's a bit raw here, a bit raw here. but he is the best deep ball. One scout said, one NFL scout said, he's seen in 30 years. Another one said best deep ball since Russell Wilson. You know, that's more Darnell Mooney's game than Drake London, although London can do that well.

He's a little bit of the George Pickens to him. To me, it's a little much. Irving, I thought was really interesting. Just because, like, I told you this over the summer, if he was 10 pounds heavier, he'd be my favorite running back in the class. but the size concerns, but you saw him as a bell cow and you saw him smash as a bell cow. But here's where we get spicy. And I don't have a great argument here, Theo.

I just know where my heart lies. And you have Christian McCaffrey 22. I don't know where he would be in my rankings. No idea. I just know I want him on all of my teams. And I have a much greater risk. Apologies in advance, folks. I have a much greater risk tolerance, I think, than anyone else.

what is my magnum opus called it is or self-proclaimed magnum o it's called upside it's called upside so i always gravitate more towards upside but we had a tweet today from nick wagner uh 49ers beat writer said mcalfrey is 100 percent the achilles issue has 100 percent quote unquote calm down it's not going to be an issue at all heading into next season he could play right now if the 49ers were in the playoffs stephania bell said i expect CMC back with a vengeance next season. And so I think where you had him is fine. I just know wherever he winds up because he burns so many people,

he is going to be lower than he should relative to league wrecking upside. And so I'm going to, I mean, there's a chance he's, you know, stuck in a committee, but I don't know. I think like the whole value CMC provides to a 49ers is that he's on the field every snap. He's not tipping play calls. Better yet, he's dictating. coverage, which you can exploit. So 28 years old, what is he, 29 next year. We just saw Derek

Henry destroy age curve. So I'm going to be into that. I don't know, I don't know about you. I get it, but that's my guy. I think that this is a, this is one of those things where you have to have a little bit of risk tolerance here. Once you start seeing the sort of these injuries with older backs, a lot of times it doesn't ever get better. Chris McCaffrey took a trip to Germany this year, Scott. And the guys, the guys fully healthy. But I do think that if I think he'll end up somewhere in this range. I think that people are going to be a little bit apprehensive leaning into him.

Maybe in the early underdog tournaments he'll be like once we start getting the volume players in post Super Bowl, maybe he'll be a little higher in the first round. But I do think this is sort of a, it's very weird for me to put Bucky Irving. ahead of Christian McCaffrey, I just worry that you're going to get into a situation where it might be a little bit more of a committee than we're used to. Now, will that matter at all if Christian McCaffrey's getting

the goal line touches and all the targets out of the backfield? No, he'll be the high value touch killer. But at the end of the day, I think that they have to utilize a second back. They have to keep them fresh. There was another cool thing where there's been some early strength of schedule metrics coming out, And it looks like the 49ers are going to get this incredibly soft one this year.

So you'll have that too. This could be a big bounce back season for the 49ers. And if it does, if it happens, they could drag McAfrey with them on that. So maybe I'm too low on him. But yeah, 28 years old, missed a lot of games. That worries me a little bit. Yeah. Looking at the rest of your list here, you got 23, Tray McBride.

And certainly when you frame it that way, it's like, would you rather have Bowers at cost or McBride at cost? I get it. You know, might make me lean more towards McBride just relative to the players going around him. Jonathan Taylor, 24, I think that's good. Kairn Williams, 25. I can't take any issue with. So you definitely left some names off.

Who were the names that you left off that you felt most uneasy about? Well, I think that usually we don't see, I think we're going to see a correction with the elite quarterbacks this year where I think that the big two of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are going to get pushed up where I think they'll be in consideration with some people where I can get a Jamar Chase at the 101, the best running back or wide receiver or McBride at the 12th. And then I can just take Josh Allen or Lamar, Lamar Jackson and have this elite quarterback. I think that those guys are going to get pushed up. Who is quarterback 3, 4, 5?

Probably going to be Jalen Hertz. That's an interesting one. Joe Burroughs going to be up there. And certainly Jaden Daniels are probably the 3,4,5. But Allen and Lamar in their own tier, if T. Higgins lands on a team where we start getting extremely excited about his target ceiling and he's the clear-cut wide receiver one in that particular offense, I think T. Higgins could get pushed in there.

And then it's, you have your assortment of other running backs like Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixin, Chuba Hubbard, James Cook. And then Rashi Rice, that's the one where if he would have stayed healthy, we would have talked about him a little bit earlier. His role in Kansas City was elite. So that's those, all those guys sort of jump out of me. I think at the end of the day, people are probably going to be the angriest that I didn't put Kamara in there and James Cook because both those guys had big points per games.

I know that there's a lot. The guy had 16 touchdowns, Scott. You know, so in the day. Committee back who ran hot. OJ Simpson numbers over. I don't want any part of James Cook. No, I'm not, I agree with you.

I'm off of him too in this range. All right. Three-way committee backfield with a quarterback who vultures touchdowns. I don't think he cleared a 45% snaps here in any of his last five games. So I think is most interesting is the quarterbacks you mentioned. You know, in a vacuum, I have. I have no problem with them top 25. In fact, I'll argue for it in a second.

But to argue against it is like, what was my recommendation this past summer is just draft Jaden Daniels on every single one of your teams. And so if there's a Jaden Daniels of 2025, that will be my recommendation. But in a vacuum, like, I think the highest end quarterbacks are going too low. So we have a stat at fantasy points called wins above replacement war. you can find this for free. Even if you're not a sub, you can access it. And so if you look at PPR, two wide receiver leagues, 10 team ESPN, which is, you know,

the vast majority of people play. Most valuable player, Saquan Barkley, two, Jemir Gibbs, three, Bijon Robinson, four, Lamar Jackson. And then you have Josh Allen at 12. You have Joe Burrow at 13. You have Jaden Daniels at 17. They're not in your top 25. even if you go to like three wide receiver leagues, which is kind of more what I play.

You have Lamar Jackson is the sixth most valuable player in fantasy this past year. So you can get really good value on that. Like we always said in the past, you know, it's not a predictable position. It's scoring is really flat. That's not the case anymore. You have these high-end alphas who are, who are, you know, outproducing everyone else to such a degree that it's providing like really great returns to your team. So I just think that's like an interesting sort of philosophical thing to discuss and how that's been the case the past two years now.

Yeah, I mean, it comes down to it where the market drove these quarterbacks up two seasons ago in ADP, where you had the Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hertz tier that was going in this second third round. Lamar Jackson was close to those guys. It turned out to be a big four. then in 2023 we had all of these quarterbacks the Jordan loves the CJ Strouds they all sort of hit where the waiver and Dak Prescott had that massive season where you had a bunch of value from guys who were QB2s and waiver wire quarterbacks and the market's like you know what we're going to push these guys down we're not going to drive these guys up there wasn't that big of an edge but this year there was and at the end of the day it's like the value of having a Lamar Jackson and a Josh Allen as the third draft pick you make. It's it's helping you avoid landmines and it's giving you a high ceiling outcome player. I think that that people need to get over the fact that I'm not supposed to draft a quarterback early here and just say, I can find my values at the other positions in a round or two. But at the end of the day, when I'm drafting that next tier of quarterback, I don't have a ceiling

outcome that I do with a Lamar Jackson. Maybe Jaden Daniels takes that next step next year and joins this, this duo, but these two guys are just so elite. And everything's looking good for next year as well. All right. Great show, Theo. I feel like this honestly, we could have went for six hours. We could do this all day every day. And in fact, that's probably what we're going to do for much of the offseason is, you know, debate players, talk about drafts. And so check out Theo's article, absolute banger. Way too early 2025 fantasy football rankings top 25 over on. fantasy points.com and tune in to School of Scott. We're going to keep doing this. I think next week we'll do what I refer to as a self-flagellation session. So I put out my draft guide in early August.

I give you my rankings. And so we want to look back at that piece. See what I got right. See what I got wrong. See what was good process, bad results, bad process, bad results, see what we can learn from that. And Theo, when you're doing the show sheet, I want you to be vicious, man. I want you to be hard on me. So I think we're going to do that. I think, you know, it's therapeutic.

You know, you got to let it all out and then, you know, self-flagellate a little bit and then come back stronger, better than ever for 2025. That's right. All off season, we're going to bring you those great episodes. And this article is not paywalled over at fantasy points. You can read it right away. We'll put it in the description on YouTube.

And yeah, go and check it out. We're going to crush it all off season long. Happy New Year at everyone. Yeah, Merry Christmas. Happy New Year. Thanks for listening. Please leave a five-star review, all that good stuff. Check out FantasyPoints.com.

And thanks for listening.