Fantasy Football Daily - Week 1 Rookie Highlights + JJ McCarthy and Shadeur Sanders | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: September 16, 2023

In the latest On the Clock! Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) breaks down some key rookie performances from Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, then gives early evaluations for Michigan QB JJ McCarthy and Colorado QB Shadeur Sanders. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS WITH CODE GURRIFIC25 AT CHECKOUT FOR 25% OFF: https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Want to join a high-stakes dynasty league -- or any other high-stakes league? All new FFPC users get $25 off their first FFPC league of $35 or more, including dynasty orphans, using our affiliate link: https://myffpc.com/cms/public?affid=fantasypoints FANTASY POINTS PROJECTIONS ARE LIVE FOR ALL STANDARD AND PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS! Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. And we are back with another episode of On the Clock. I am your host, Brett Whitefield. And today I'm running at Solo Dolo again. I know I promised a nice guest here. But, you know, the time slot here is a little tough.

So we're going to have to make some adjustments, I think, get earlier in the week. And we'll still do the Saturday release for sure, but we will be able to fetch some better, more willing guests if it's a Monday through Friday thing. So anyways, enough of that. Let's jump in. We're going to do some rookie review.

We got one week in the books. And I got to get my eyes on a lot of rookies. I want to start with my guy. Anthony Richardson. My number one QB in this class goes to the Indianapolis Colts and I thought well coming into the draft

you guys know I was a lot higher on Richardson than anybody else. I thought for my money he was the most NFL ready guy I know he had the accuracy concerns but when you look at everything else from a processing standpoint from a mechanical standpoint

from a just a feel for the game the way he manipulates the pocket things of that nature like actual quarterbacky things I felt like he did all of those things at a much higher level than C.J. Stroud and Will Levis. And then Bryce Young was close. Close in a lot of regards, but he had some other warts that kind of turned me off on him a little bit. And that's why I had Richardson as my QB1. And coming out of week one, nothing has changed. In fact, all every feeling I had about Anthony Richardson, all my analysis, if you go on to fantasy points.com and check out that prospect guide. everything I wrote about Richardson was true in that first game.

The footwork was great. The pocket manipulation was great. One of my favorite things about Anthony Richardson is that he is not a quarterback who is a run first guy, even though he is literally Superman wearing football pads. He's not a run first quarterback. He wants to keep his eyes downfield. He wants to throw the ball from the pocket. If he can't, he'll take what he gets after that.

But he's not a guy who's looking to tuck and run. He's going to hang in there long. and he's going to make you pay if you make a mistake. So those are things I really like about Richardson. The throwing mechanics look better as well. He's a little less heel-clicky than he was coming out. So I know it's one week. So I mean, I don't know what we're doing with that,

but everything looks really good to me. He actually didn't miss that many throws in this game either, guys. That's the really fun part. I felt like his accuracy, you're already seeing crazy improvements. He was actually layering the ball in some tight windows between lines, backer safety. Yes. Big concern, though, is that Shane Stuyken offense.

I know Shane gets a lot of credit for the Jalen Hertz development. I think Shane is a really, really good offensive coordinator, but it doesn't mean he's perfect. And a lot of the issues, like we saw the Eagles offense last year stagnate at times, and we saw it happen this week, or week one and week two already this year now. and the reason that happens is there's there are flaws in the stiking system and one of the things that really drives me insane is just like the overload of static routes um and doing everything from shotgun with static routes to me is not good especially when you are running you know they run these like max protect three deep hook concepts where by the like sometimes by the time richardson or even we saw it with jalen hertz on thursday night when he hit was hitting that back foot all he sees is the back of jerseys and there's no in breakers in this offense so there he's can't

throw anticipatory he's having to you know wait until numbers flash and then and then you know throw a strike and any time an offense is that static it's just it gets easy to defend um i it's it's just not necessarily for me all the time i think there's a place for those play calls especially if you're playing like a heavy man team where you know you're going to have throwing windows i think that's fine. But what we saw the Vikings do on Thursday night against Eagles, and this for sure relates to Richardson, which that's who we're talking about. But what you saw the Vikings do is play this really just soft shell where they kind of were like this really loose, relaxed, five deep almost. It looked like. And out of that look, they can play cover three. They can play buck, you know,

two. They can play quarters. They can do a lot of really cover six. They're in some cover six, which is crazy because Flores, that's not really something he had done in the past at a high rate. But what it does is it takes away all those deep throwing lanes and you have linebackers digging stuff out. You got safeties in throwing lanes and it's a problem, I think. And I think the tape the Vikings put on Thursday night to stop that past game was something that's going to get reused against Indianapolis now and Philadelphia going forward. And so for Richardson, like most of the issues, he kind of slowed down on that second half. I'm sure anyone that watched the game, noticed that.

A lot of that was just a play calling. Like, it was rough. I need to see more in-breakers. I need, like, he proved in that game alone, he can throw with anticipation. He can throw guys open. He can create windows that don't yet exist. Things that the best quarterbacks are doing at a high level.

Richardson was already doing that stuff in his first game. Like, dudes, guys, girls, he is light years ahead of where Justin Fields is. Three years in the field's career now. Light years ahead. head. And I like to comp those, because they're very similar in that they're, you know, the embodiment of Superman, but wearing football pads. They have electric arms, some accuracy issues. But far from the mental part of the game, Richardson is so far ahead of fields. It's kind of crazy. And he's doing a lot with a little, because similar to fields, I don't think the play calling Richardson got on Sunday was good. But he, he shined. Obviously, the quarterback run stuff is borderline unstoppable. But man, just the ability to throw with, anticipation to throw on the move create out of structure it just looks awesome so Shane if you're listening I need more in breakers from you more crossers more dig let's run some traditional NFL concepts that are that still run by the best office in the league I need

some Yankee I need some dagger you know some some Y cross like come on let's let's get some of this stuff going for the man I think he can do it you can throw over the middle of the field you can throw with anticipation so but week one I was wildly impressed at Anthony Richardson. I was not, like as high as I wasn't him, I wasn't expecting him to put up that kind of performance. So other rookies that really impressed me. We got to start with my guy, Puka Nakua. I think industry-wide, I might have been the highest on him in the industry. I know my guy Derek Brown over at Fantasy Pro is also very high on Puka. Not sure what kind of grade he had on him, but most of the industry had Puka as a day three guy. And people kind of

even laughed about him being talked about as that so yeah i want a victory lap this for sure because i've been talking about puka since you guys know since i saw him at the senior bowl watched his tape that week phenomenal prospect i thought i had a day too great on him let's talk about the things he does well though he is he has elite body control and catch radius elite ball tracking skills and he's got really good hands. Immediately to me, translated as a high-end possession receiver, I wrote in my write-up on Puka that he gives me like poor man Justin Jefferson vibes, where sometimes it's not the route running that's going to get the job done, but it is that catch radius, that ball tracking,

the ability to be a bully at the catch point. That's Jefferson all day. And Jefferson is a phenomenal route runner. I'm not saying he's not. But sometimes defenses do things to take away that route running. and Jefferson still produces anyways. I think Puka has that kind of swag to him, that body control. He's going to own the boundary.

If you're throwing him the ball outside the numbers, he's just going to own that part of the field. Like it's, that's his. He owns it. And then on top of that, he's got some really nice built-in gadget type stuff. Like the way BYU used him in college was phenomenal. I love that, like, he is going to be ridiculous.

But, like, he kind of had like some debo to him at BYU. you and I know we're throwing out Justin Jefferson Debo comps now and now like I'm going to look like I'm overselling him but it is what it is man I'm just telling you how he was used that's how he was used a lot of handoffs handoffs out of the backfield a lot of jet motion fly sweeps

a ton of really cool I got a fly in here what the heck a ton of really really cool gadget plays and insert him into the Rams offense we know the Rams can use receivers that way we saw it with Bobby Woods we've seen it with Cooper Cub and he steps on the field immediately gets 15 targets

his first game, which is nuts. Ten catches, 119 yards. And there was meat left on the bone. There was like at least one go ball where he cooked his corner clean, beat him on a nine route, and Stafford just missed him. You add that

45 yard, 50 catch, 50 yard catch to this total. It looks even better, which is crazy. He was beating man coverage. He's beating zone coverage. And like, look, Pook is not necessarily the best route runner, but he understands some nuance in route running details at a high level. Like he understands leverage.

He's got a decent burst. You know, he's not going to go out there and run like an Antonio Brown like whip route or, you know, 83, blaze out or anything like that. But he's competent enough as a route runner that he can get open. Combine that with his bully ball mentality. And he's just, he's a really hard guy to stop. I think he should be a fixer in that offense for the rest of the season. I really do think that I think he earned targets.

I've been calling it since he was drafted. When he fell to like mid to late day three, since that moment I've been saying he is 2023s Amman Ra St. Brown. Not from a playstyle comp by any means, but from a Amonra should not. I had a top 40 grade on Amman Ra and he goes in the fourth round and then immediately is a stud. Like that's what I mean. Like Puka should not have fallen as far as he did. Maybe some teams had some medicals on him that weren't savory.

Maybe that's why you fell. I'm not really sure, but pretty easy to see that I think this guy's a legit player. So very encouraged by what I saw from Puka in week one. They kind of used him in like a hybrid Bobby Woods Cooper Cup roll. They are getting them on those, you know, some fly sweep, jet sweep type stuff. But they lined up up all over the place. He played X. He played the flanker.

He played in the slot. Like it's rare to see a rookie in week one be used like he's the dude, you know, especially one that was drafted in the fifth round. Um, let's talk Zay Flowers real quick. So Zay, you know, I know the fantasy community is going nuts about his usage. His usage was just okay. It wasn't anything to like get super excited about. Um, I know receptions equal points.

So that's great. I just don't know that he's going to get a ton of like high value type touches, which we'll see. It's week one, one week sample. Maybe I'm, maybe I'm, um, overthinking it a little bit. But 10 targets, nine catches, 78, yards the a dot was super low it was like 2.4 or something they're basically hitting him on screens and shallow crossers and slants and not a lot moving down field most of what he did was after the catch

which listen that's kind of what we expected early from zay right like that's what he that's what he is he's a monster after the catch doesn't have a ton of wiggle but he's his burst is so crazy like yeah it's good stuff uh really good route runner too he impressed me of this route running in this game. I want to see them take it to the next level now. Let's let's scheme up some some deep touches for him. We saw it at Boston College like he can win on the outside even though he's a smaller guy. Reminds me a little bit of a former Baltimore Raven receiver and Steve Smith. Zay can, Zay can do that stuff. So let's let's dial it up now. Let's let's get them going out there. I know they got other receivers they're working in the mix with OBJ and Rashad Bateman and

freaking Nelson Aguilar for whatever reason. But I want to see I want to see Zay get more involved in the intermediate and deep part of the field. If that happens, then then you're looking at a potential rookie to year candidate because I think the target share should hold most of the year. Obviously not 10 a game, but I think he should be heavily targeted all year. Two other guys I want to mention before we talk a little college football, Jaden Reed in Luke Musgrave, a pair of rookies in Green Bay. I was super impressed with what I saw. Luke Musgrave had an 85% route participation in week one, 14.8 target share in an A dot of 18. Like the Green Bay Packers get it.

They get what Musgrave is. You know, for like people have been skeptical of Musgrave for a while because he's so raw. He didn't play that much in college because of injury, yada, yada, yada. Well, Green Bay obviously disagrees with you. They're playing the guy in 85% of plays as a rookie week one as a tight end, which is a very hard position to learn. And everything I saw on tape looked awesome. Like there was actually meat on the bone with him too where there was a deep crosser.

It was either deep cross or a seam ball where love just overthrew him. You know, add back catch to the mix and his total looks just outrageously good, especially for a really muddy tight end situation in the NFL where there's not a lot of like reliable, dependable tight end. So I really liked what I saw from Musgrave. The explosiveness is clearly there. He was arguably the fastest guy in the field that came. But yeah, I really, really liked what I saw for Musgrave.

And then Jay didn't read. And I know, you know, Reed didn't play a ton. He did have a 74% route participation, though, and an 18.5% target share. So, like, that's really encouraging. I know they were down Christian Watson, but basically what that tells you is like, hey, when we're passing the football, we want Jaden Reed on the field. And he's playing in the slot mostly. I think Reed is going to break out this week.

I'm calling it right now. Week two, he's going to get D. Alford. playing the Falcons. D. Alfred is not the best slot corner in the world. I think he had a passer rating against in coverage last year of over 105. The Falcons in general aren't good against the slot or they weren't last year anyways.

We'll see what happens. That could change, obviously, but D. Alfred's still the guy covering the slot mostly. So I really think this is going to be a Reed breakout game. Even if Watson is back, Watson being back might actually help him, right? Because you're getting a little bit of a field stretch around the field now and let Reed and Musgrave kind of worked the middle of the field a little bit more.

So I love what I saw from those two, though. And I think my early evaluations on those guys is correct. So I'm going to victory lap it, even though it's one week. All right. We're going to get, this is going to be a short episode today. There's not still not a ton of talk about as far as how the prospect landscape is developing. There's two guys of note. I'm going to, or actually three guys of note, I'm going to stick to those three,

and it's going to be mostly quarterback driven again because I think that's what we've learned the most about so far. I opened season two with a quarterback discussion, and I listed 15 guys that could be in the mix in this coming draft class. Two of those guys I mentioned were J.J. McCarthy and Shadour Sanders. McCarthy, to me, for my money, has been the most impressive quarterback in college football so far the season. I know he has played junk competition.

So I will preface with that. Don't come from my head because I'm touting him after playing Eastern Carolina and UNLV. But every critique we had of JJ last year, and the reason he wasn't on a lot of people's radar as a first round guy even, was inconsistency throwing the ball, unwillingness to push the ball downfield, didn't throw into a lot of tight windows, didn't attack the middle of the field,

Well, throw that all out the window because through two weeks so far, he's pushing the ball down field. His throwing mechanics look incredible. He's completing 90% of his passes through two games, which mind-blowing. I don't care who you're playing. You're playing Division I, College football. If you're completing 90% of your passes with an A-DOT over 10, you are dealing, absolutely dealing. He's attacking the middle of the field at an incredibly high level.

He just looks like he's in complete command and control of that offense. a totally different kid. They have been passed first in both games and not run first. That's a huge sign moving forward. And honestly, like, prospects aside, if Michigan wants to take that step and actually win a college football playoff game and win those big games that they've fallen short on,

that's what they need. They need a passing attack that's actually worthy of being talked about. So JJ looks to be the dude, though. He looks ready. If the draft were today, I would tell you, I would have J.J. McCarthy as a top three pick in the draft. So that's about where I'm at with it. The other guy, Shadodoer Sanders, Colorado, quarterback, Dion's son.

Obviously, he's put up just ridiculously gaudy numbers. No one's denying that. Incredible stuff, but the tape is actually really, really good, too. He has come out of nowhere, and this happens every year, and this is why sometimes mock drafts are kind of annoying to do, because, or I should say early mock drafts, because what happens is you do an early mock, and then six months later,

people don't want to clown you for your takes. But you can't predict that a JJ McCarthy and a should doer Sanders are going to literally come out of nowhere. So it's, you know, it is what it is. But he looks awesome. I think he's cementing himself as a first round pick, probably even a top 10, 15 pick. And now I kind of feel like the quarterback market is shaping.

Now, granted, we're also assuming all of these guys come out because my top four right now are all juniors. And Caleb Williams, Drake May, J.J. McCarthy, Shadour Sanders. All those guys are juniors. So there's a chance they don't all come out. And then if they don't, you'd be talking about like the Michael Pennix of the world, the Bo Nix of the world, who have both played great. But I really, I really wanted to highlight J.J. and Shadur because they're the two guys, I think, that are just elevating their game to where now they're going to be, they're going to be in the discussion. I don't think they'll be in the number one overall discussion. I think that's Caleb and it's probably going to be Caleb all the way.

But they are absolutely in the discussion. So last guy I wanted to hit on really quick before I get out of here. Keon Coleman. This is one of my dudes already. I don't know if you guys follow Jacob Sanderson. I would highly recommend it from a full tilt. And I think he has a Patreon or substack. Check him out, though.

He's a good, good analytics-driven fantasy guy. he asked me, I did a pod or a best ball stream with him where he was asking me for a, you know, an under the radar player that he can grab in his Devee Leagues. And I told him Keon Coleman, this is before the season started. And Keon Coleman looks awesome. He might be the second best receiver in the country behind Marvin Harrison, Jr. What I love about it is him and Marv have very similar games. They are 6-4-220 explosive freaks of nature.

Great after the catch, great at the catch point, bully ball mentality. I'm excited to see how his season goes because I think he's already got six touchdowns in two games or something. So it's a pretty radical stuff there from Kean Coleman. So keep an eye on him. All right. Look, that's going to do it. Enjoy college football today. There's not a lot of good games on this week.

It's one of the reasons we're keeping this episode short. As we get into the conference schedules, we'll start, you know, previewing a little. some games here and there too, looking at, you know, prospect watch on both sides of the ball, but we're not quite there yet, guys. We still got a lot of lollipop matchups. So next week, we'll have Joe Marino on the show, though. So that's pretty cool. We love Joe.

Joe's friend of the show, friend of Brett, and we'll get talking about some college football, some prospect talk. Maybe he can give you some Caleb Williams takes. Caleb Williams takes. We might have someone else on to do that that I know is skeptical of Caleb, so I'd love to pick his brain. and get a vibe for what he's saying. So anyways, that's going to do it.

Thank you so much for listening. If you're not, if you're audio only, also go to YouTube, subscribe to the Fantasy Points channel, turn the bell on, please. That helps us. It also helps you because you get to look at all of our beautiful faces, especially like a guy like Joe Dolan, who's got a lot of videos out every week. John Hanson, these are like handsome looking dudes. Go out there, catch a glimpse of them.

Yes, thank you so much. I'm out. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.