Fantasy Football Daily - Week 16 Thursday Night Stinkfest, Joe's Hailstorm, and Trey's Ray-Ray Payday | NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

Welcome to NFL Best Bets, the ultimate guide for NFL betting enthusiasts! Join seasoned betting experts Joe Dolan and Tom Brolley as they break down the week’s matchups, analyze odds, and share their top picks to help you cash in on Sundays. But that’s not all—each week, they’re joined by their good friend Trey, the lovable degenerate who’s notorious for making the worst bets imaginable. Will Trey finally beat the odds, or will his bad luck streak continue? Tune in for expert advice, lots of laughs, and the occasional train wreck as Trey tries to redeem himself. Proud part of Pantheon Sports Where To Find Us http://twitter.com/FG_Dolan http://twitter.com/TomBrolley http://Twitter.com/TreyKamberling Find Our Podcasts Here - https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/ 2024 Dynasty Video Playlist - https://youtu.be/KthPmbCI0PA?si=wzNG-dm6vfPojE68 Use promo code - SCOREMORE for 10% off of your subscriptions Subscribe to FantasyPoints for FREE - https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on the Fantasy Points Best Bet Show, Dolan goes back to the well against the Kansas City Chiefs for whatever reason, a team that has burned them all year. Betts have burned Good Friend Trey all season, and then we get the actual brains in the operation, Mr. Tom Broley, to give you his favorite wagers. T. Brow, what's going on, man? Week 16 of the NFL season is here at Fantasy Points.com. It's week 16 everywhere, but it's especially Week 16.

at FantasyPoints.com. I'd like to welcome everybody to the best bets program. We have got games on Thursday, games on Saturday, games on Sunday. I've got bets going every day of this entire slate here. But I've got to be honest, T, bro. I had some trouble digging through the numbers and finding props that I really liked. I've got a teaser going again. The Kansas City Chiefs, I am just, I am on tilt when it comes.

to the Kansas City Chiefs, and we will talk about that in a little bit of all the problems that I have been having with them. But it was a two-and-two week for me, including somehow we cashed an over bet on George Kittle in that God-awful Thursday game. But we hit the number. I'm not going to apologize for winning money because when you hear my- Not a whole lot of overs, not a whole lot of overs cash in that game. So we'll take it. When you hear my Thursday night bet this week, let's just say, if I wasn't behold into making one. I wouldn't have made one. It's the Chargers and the Broncos, Chargers hosts in the Broncos. Broncos catching two and a half three, 41 and a half the total. Tom, I do not

have a bet on the side or the total here. Do you have a lean though if you were to get one? It's floating between two and a half so you can get even odds at two and a half, but you can find threes out there if you want the Denver Broncos. Yeah, my lean is towards the Broncos catching the three here. My ATS picks were kind of crappy last week, but hopefully we turned them around here, starting on Thursday night. But I couldn't get on this game. I was hoping maybe three and a half some pop up,

but the line has actually moved towards the Broncos in this one. And I think people kind of have the same concerns here with this Chargers offense. Haven't been able to run the ball much since JK Dobbins went out of the lineup. A lot of the offense has been on Justin Herbert here. So Denver Broncos have been pretty. good at stopping the run anyway and the secondary is pretty stout overall anyway. So I think this is going to lean towards more of a close showdown here. Pretty pivotal game here in the AFC playoff hunt. Both of these teams are in the back end here. Obviously, Kansas City has got the AFC West

wrapped up, but both of these teams want to get into the playoffs, maybe avoid that two spot. So you don't have to play the Chiefs or the Bills. Not that the sixth spot is necessarily any better, but still a very pivotal game here. But yeah, my lean is towards the Broncos in this one. It's a good game, Tom, but when I struggled to find any sort of like really big advantage. So I want to throw that out there to the people. I'm putting it on my record for the best bets.

By the way, I do track it. And if you want to know, I am 23 and 26 on the season. Tom, you have done considerably better than that. And I'm pretty sure good friend Trey's one and 13. So you can, but he's always cooking up the wild. slop and we're going to talk about something that he discussed really early in the off season for our podcast. But I have a really just crappy bet.

And this is a callback to one of my all-time favorite prop bets, Tom Raleigh, that you and I made together. It was in Super Bowl 50. It was the game between the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers. And you and I both hit because there are absolute garbage props in the Super Bowl, which is why we love it so much. I'm pretty sure we hit Fossey Whitaker over six and a half receiving yards, something like that.

Early in the game, he catches a dump ball from Cam Newton, takes it 14 a yards. You and I are hooting and hollering. It was like, Fossey Whitaker, baby, cash that over. It was his only catch of the postseason. He had only two catches in the postseason in his entire career,

but that was one of them. Thank you, Fossey Witton for doing that bad. We're still gambling because of it. This is awful. Okay, where are we going? I have Kamani Vidal over eight and a half receiving yours. Okay. I mean, I was just talking about how this backfield's been a mess.

So it seemed like they were trying to get him more involved a little bit last week because Snapshare was very much in his favorite, 67% Joe. Yeah, I mean, just look, he gives them maybe a little bit of explosiveness that Gus Edwards doesn't give them, that Hassan Haskins doesn't give them that they haven't had since Jakey Dobbins went down. So, hey, as we've saw with our man Fosy Whitaker, one checkdown can take care of this. Yeah, and digging into the numbers a little bit,

the Broncos are giving up the seventh most receiving yards per game to running backs here at 40 overall. Won't really press there last week with Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson, but this has been a spot where, you know, it's been tough to run on the Broncos. So maybe they have to do some other ways to get the ball in the hands of the running backs get out on the screen, whatever they need to do here. So I kind of like this. And yeah, the Vidal, you know, 67% snapshare last week because it was more of a negative game script.

But I also think they kind of realize Gus Edwards stinks right now. And they need to get this guy more, you know, Kamani Vidal, more reps here. They might, they might need them down the stretch going into the playoffs. So maybe they, maybe he's featured a little bit more here in that Thursday night game. I would like to see it in that Thursday night game, Tom. I know you've got an absolute crap going in this game as well. So lay it on me because there was not a whole lot that I liked here. Yeah, the one I was looking at was a Gus Edwards under rushing yards. It moved a little bit too much for me to bet on it.

It was about 41 and a half and it's moved all the way down to like 35 and a half, 34 and a half by Wednesday afternoon. So I didn't give it out anymore. But one I think might not move so much, but I think it should move down a little bit. is Stone Smart. And he's been, you know, pretty active here the last two weeks. Got 50 plus yards against the Chiefs and Tampa Base since Will Disley went out of the lineup.

But, you know, it's going way under the radar because it's, it's Hayden Hearst. But Hayden Hurst is off the IR looking to play on Thursday. He's back in practice. Was full in practice on Tuesday and Wednesday here. So it's looking like he's going to be back in the mix. and we'll see if Stone Smart is able to maintain the huge, you know, the big role he's had here the last two games after the Disley injury. Even if it's just reduced a little bit here,

I'm looking at him to go under his mark here. Chiefs and the Buccaneers have been, they've given up the first and the second most receiving yards per game. So not only was he elevated into a big role, but he also stepped into a role against the two defenses you want to play against to rack up production. as a tight end. So now we look at Denver, they're giving up the 10th fewest receiving guards per game to the position at 44.4. So looking at Stone Smart, I wrote him up for a waiver wire. I think he,

you know, in deeper formats, but this total feels a little bit high. I think it should have been closer to 30 and a half, somewhere in that range. So I'm going to look for Stone Smart to go under his receiving guards prop. Most people probably didn't even, you know, probably haven't even heard of Stone Smart. until two weeks ago whenever he caught a couple of passes on that Sunday night game. But we're going to go back to him on a Thursday night and bet is under. Tom, we're going to come back, talk about the Saturday and Sunday slate after a brief word from our sponsors. Ella McKay, coming to theaters December 12th. Your father's here. Why?

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Hey guys, welcome back to the show. Now, I would be completely remiss if I didn't mention this. Tom Broley's Best Betts articles, the WaverWire article up at FantasyPoints.com, every article up at FantasyPoints.com. You can get in for the rest of the 2024 season and all of 2025. No strings attached for the lowest rate we're going to be offering on our early bird special, 20% off any fantasy points NFL or college football subscription, which includes our all-in package, which that has every piece of fantasy points content, every tool, and every stat from the fantasy points data suite, plus more for 20% off. Now through Super Bowl Sunday, get the rest of 2024 if you're not already subscribed. and all of 2025, no strings attached, early bird special, no code required. Just go to FantasyPoints.com and sign up for the 2025 season, 20% off.

You will be glad you did. It's a great stocking stuffer. I guess you can print it out or something. We don't offer physical. Do people stop printers too? I don't know. I don't know. A 3D printer or something.

There you can print. You can print Tray's face out on a 3D printer and stuff it in somebody stocking. T-bro, we got a Saturday slate. normally I wait until the end of the second segment before we welcome Trey in to break down the Dolan teaser of the week. This is a new segment that I probably shouldn't have introduced because the Dolan teaser of the week is now, I believe, one and four on the season. Now it is typically involved the Kansas City Chiefs. Early, it was the Chiefs. I tease their side and lost both of those. Now, this time, last week, I teased against them. I got Jamest. James has been benched.

I'm going to tease against the Kansas City Chiefs again, and this is a Saturday game. This is a Saturday game. Yes, it is. One o'clock, yep. I'm teasing the other Saturday game as well. Give me the Houston Texans getting nine points. I know Patrick Mahomes is trending to play, but nine is a lot for this Kansas City Chiefs team against anybody who's not going to turn the ball over six times like James Winston. and I just think the Stee's. I know George Pickens might not play, and you can maybe be a little upset about this. I don't know what you're going to tell me about this, but I think the Steeze getting 12 in a teaser

is too much in a division game against the Ravens. I like the Ravens to win the game, but I think the Steelers getting 12 points in a six-point teaser is too much. So I have in a 6-point two-team teaser, I have the Texans getting nine, and the Steelers getting 12. on the Saturday slate of games. I love the Texan side of this.

Like a dummy, I believe the reports about, you know, Patrick Mahomes having a high ankle sprain. I took the Texans when they were laying points earlier this week. Probably the worst bet I've made all season long here. Line has moved, I think, six points on me here. So please don't, please don't follow that now. I should probably put a note in my article that I would no longer bet this prop. But so I am with you on that Texans one.

If Mahomes is compromised at all, I like it. And I also like the Steelers one as well. I was thinking about betting them six, six and a half. But I also bet them last week against the Eagles that did not work out very well for me. I was not standing in front of the Eagles. No. And I'm still, I'm pretty worried about the Steelers offense, though. It does look like George Pickens is going to miss another game here.

He's yet to practice. So that would be my concern. with this Steelers game? Do they have enough firepower to stay with this Ravens offense? They were able to ugly up the game last time in Pittsburgh. They also lucked out. Justin Tucker missing some field goals in that game to keep the Steelers ahead or, you know, really close. It was a neutral game script for much of the game there. So, you know, I am leaning heavily on your side here on both of these bets, though. I like this parlay. Hopefully, my Steelers have enough offense here to keep it close with the Ravens.

So Tom, I don't know if you have anything from the Saturday slate. Your Sties are probably, it's a long day for you on Saturday. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, and I probably have to do a little bit of work on Saturday just because the holiday week is, you know, right after that. And I got to kind of work ahead. So I got to work on Saturday night. So, you know, by the way, everybody out there, Merry Christmas. The next edition we'll have is after Christmas.

So I guess, you know, Merry Christmas. everybody. Yeah, certainly, Merry Christmas, Happy holiday, whatever it is you celebrate, but certainly Christmas, look, the NFL has made it, the NFL has made Christmas an NFL day because everything has to be an NFL day. You know, this time of year, I would like a day off every now and again, but I know, I know, but we don't have it. I like sitting around watching football on holidays too, so I'll give them, I'll give them credit there. But anyway, Tom, your Cs play at 430. Yes. And our NITs play in the playoff at noon. Yes, and we have an NFL game at 1 o'clock. And I got a bet for that one o'clock game.

Oh, I have an Isaiah Pacheco under 57 and a half rushing yards. Just, you know, I was expecting him to kind of take over this backfield, but it really hasn't happened just yet. They're still splitting these carries with Kareem Hunt. It's been basically a 50-50 split. We've even seen, you know, Somaget P. Ryan is still very much staying active in this backfield. So I'm looking at Pache. to go under his rushing yards here.

We haven't projected for about 43 receiving yards. If we look into some of the numbers here, 55 or fewer yards and four of his not five games so far, including the first three since he's come back from his leg fracture. 46% snap share or worse in the first three games he's been back as well. So very much a time share here. And then if we look up at the matchup as well here, Houston has been pretty good against the run. season long, giving up the second fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt from our fantasy points data at 1.44 yards and the ninth fewest rushing yards per game to running backs at 81.9.

So the numbers look good. We know about this Chiefs offensive line. It's really struggling right now. That's why Patrick Mahomes is struggling with a ankle injury right now because he can't stay upright behind this offensive line. We'll see if they can open up any holes. But I'm I'm thinking they're going to struggle a little bit in this one. So look for Pacheco under his rushing yards. I could see this getting down into the low 50s. That's about where I would stop, about 51.5. So if it does tick down here a little bit, I still like it.

But if it gets down to the 40s, that's probably where I shut it off. Tom, I've been a little bit distracted here on this show. I've got to be honest, I'm looking out to the northeast here down here in Greenville, South Carolina. And it looks like, I know they've been talking about the drones. in Jersey. Yes. Like, like,

I love how the aliens, they're going to invade our country. New Jersey. And in our world. And they have chosen to come to Jersey. But it certainly looks like they're invading in South Carolina. Thunderstorms out of absolutely nowhere. And I have been traumatized enough this year by storms knocking out my power.

So I'm going to try to hustle through this as fast as I possibly can. I'm going to the Sunday slate. And in my column last week, my wide receiver cornerback column, I got to admit, I did not call a goose egg, but I said, Cooper Cup against the 49ers, bad matchup, you know, outside funnel, Diomador-Lanore, he's a stud. Well, Cooper Cup's line now is down not as low as you'll find it, 58 and a half. And I understand the concerns about Cooper Cup. You know, Pooka Nakuwa has kind of become the number one, and I get that. But Cooper Cup, by the way, Jake Tribby brought this up.

he's also sitting at his lowest draft king's price since 2021. The Jets, though, rank is the single soft-dischedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot receivers over the last five weeks. And a neutral matchup for outside receivers. This jet secondary is not the lockdown unit. It was, obviously, this Jets team has collapsed across the board. By the way, the Jets also have given up a lot of points. They gave up 25. They gave up a big game to Brian Thomas last week against Mac Jones.

And I just feel like there might be a little greasy wheel to squeak here. Uh, or a squeaky wheel to grease, not a greasy wheel to squeak. Uh, it got squeaked last week. Give me Cooper cop over 58 and a half receiving yards in this game. I like the matchup. I like the narrative. Um, and, and I don't, and I like him coming off of a, of a goose. Yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to kind of go against you kind of. I don't know. Maybe we can both get our props to hit here. I like Puka Nakua in this in this game. I, you know, it's not going out on a limb here.

I like Puka Nakua, but 85 and a half yards is his number. Just like what I'm seeing here, the Jets are playing a lot more man coverage. And they're playing about 35% of the time, which is the seventh highest rate in the NFL. And Puka is absolutely killing man coverage this year, averaging 4.39. yards per route run with a 44% target share against man coverage. So maybe the Jets will rethink that strategy. Maybe they won't want to play so much man coverage against Puka. But if they do and when they do, I would expect Puka to get the ball. If we look at what the Jets have done here, this, you know, this works for you, Joe, too. The last two weeks here, 99 or more yards to Brian Thomas Jr.,

Jalen Waddle and Tyree Kill. So this secondary, as you noted, they're playing in some more shooting. out here. Totals at 46 and a half. The last I looked, so it's one of the higher totals on the board. Aaron Rogers is playing pretty decent as well. So, you know, we went a little bit of a track meet here for a little more passing in this game. So looking at, you know, his overall games here, 97 or more yards in six of his eight games since returning to the lineup. So everything is kind of checking out here for another big Pooka game. Just hope there's enough passing volume to go around. so we get both of our bets to hit, Joe. Yeah, look, Pook is a stud right now.

He's a locked in first round pick next year. I'm not going to argue against that, but I felt like Cooper Cuck could do this in addition to Pook and Nakua coming out and doing it. So T-Brow, Sunday slate, Monday slate, anything else that tickles your pickle here on the card? Yeah, I got, let's go with one more, another guy that we, everybody's going to be talking about this week.

Took a Jemir Gibbs over his rushing yards number. It was 85 and a half. earlier today on Wednesday. It does look like it has been bet up a little bit, but we have him projected for close to 105 yards in this game. Of course, David Montgomery looks like he's going to be done for the season. I did see he's getting a second opinion,

but he's for sure not playing this week, which matters for this bet. He's actually getting a third opinion. Oh, a third opinion. Okay, okay. He's getting all kinds of opinions to see if that knee is all right. But if you're going that deep for opinions, it's probably looking pretty iffy here for David Montgomery the rest of the way. But looking at Gibbs's numbers from last year whenever Monty missed, average 100 yards per game.

That was his average. And we look at Chicago here. Their run defense has been absolutely shredded here. Giving up the second most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, 2.52 yards. giving up 4.9 yards per carry and the second most rushing yards per game to running backs at 115. So I'm expecting him to see most of the work here. Maybe we'll see a little bit of Craig Reynolds. Maybe we'll see a little bit of Cioni Viyaki.

But like in Jameer Gibbs here, this is Jemir Gibbs season. He's going to be winning a lot of fantasy leagues the next couple of weeks here. So looking for him to go off here in this matchup. I had 87 yards on Thanksgiving Day. on that noon 1230 kickoff on Thanksgiving Day and did it on just nine carries. So I'm expecting at least, you know, probably about double those carries. And all he needs is just a little bit of room and he can break a long one. So looking for Jemir Gibbs to go over his rushing yards this weekend. Yeah. So Jemir Gibbs obviously probably going to have like 75% of the workload. And as Scott Barrett

broke down in his everything report, if he gets 75% of the workload and he's just baseline efficient in this offensive environment, he's going to break leagues. And if he's himself efficient, he's going to be an all-time great over these next two weeks. So could be a historical couple of weeks for Jemir Gibbs. Anything else on the Sunday slate, Tom, or are we going to talk to our resident Falcons fan, good friend Trey? I'll give out one more here. Why not? Why not? There's one I like a little deeper here. I actually have two from this game.

Why not? Let's give them out. It's the holiday season. I got both Brenton Strange over 34 and a half receiving yards and Amir Abdula over 13 and a half receiving yards. We're going to that icky, disgusting battle for the number one overall pick here. Who's going to lose it? We got Jacksonville in Las Vegas. Nobody's going to want to watch this game. But we're going to have two player props from that to make it a little bit more interesting.

Breton Strange, the new number one tight end in Jacksonville since Evan Ingram went out of the lineup. saw 12 targets last week. Was that a 26% target share and a 78% route share without Evan Ingram? He was basically the number two receiver here. Mack Jones, it's been either targeting Brian Thomas Jr. Or we're targeting tight end since he became the quarterback three weeks ago. So thinking a lot of Brian Thomas Jr.

And just enough Breton Strange here. And the matchup's great. Las Vegas has given up the fourth most receiving yards per game to the position at 65 and giving up 12.3 yards per reception to tight ends. So essentially this number, if you know, average that 12.3, just need three catches from Brent and Strange here tonight on Sunday. So like that one, over 34 and a half. And Amir Abdullah, this one, it just feels a little bit light here since Scott Turner took over. He's been a lot more involved in the passing game. has hit 14 or more yards in five of his last six games with a 51% route share in that span.

We know Sincere McCormick is no longer going to play. He's done for the season, unfortunately. And if we look at the matchup here, Jacksonville's giving up the second most receiving yards per game to running backs, 43.1. And 16 individual running backs have hit 13 or more receiving yards against Jacksonville in 14 games. So a lot of action going on here in that Jacksonville, Las Vegas game. Going to make it interesting. Amir Abdullah over 13 and a half receiving yards and Breton Strange over 34.5 receiving yards.

Forgive me, Lord, for my sins. I don't know what it is, but I guess my gambling in the state of South Carolina is not appeasing to the big man. Because it's hailing here. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. It sounds like my house is about to fall down. And maybe that's a good omen for good friend Trey, who's one in 14 on his bets of the year. Let's hope my house stays up through this break.

And then we'll welcome in Good Friend Trey to maybe carry the rest of the podcast. Welcome back to the podcast. It feels like I might have just survived a near-death experience here. And maybe that's a good sign that I should be betting on Good Friend Trey's slop of the week here at Fantasy Points.com and the best bet show. Good friend Trey. I want to throw this back to something you had in week one, I believe. Before week one. Yeah, it was a preseason edition, yeah.

Having to do with Michael Pennix. And we have now gotten to the point that it is week 16, your Atlanta Falcons are technically still alive. The Buccaneers have a pretty sizable schedule advantage and a game advantage in the NFC South. But the Buc, but the Falcons here coming off of victory, have decided to bench Kirk Cousins. throw us back to the prophet tray in the preseason yeah like what your original bet here on

michael panics was and i kind of just want to circle back about all the process here for the falcons which has once again been a big topic of discussion uh on social media here this week i've got plenty of thoughts i'll definitely try to keep it brief as much as i can but uh if you will recall early in the early in the preseason with two weeks to go before the season I did mention that it was very strange. I even threw up the wind horse fingers. It was very strange that no word had come out about Kurt Cousins and his health. And they had benched Michael Pennix for the preseason.

They weren't going to play him. So I was a little bothered by this. I said, I don't think Kirk's 100%. I think we're going to have some issues here. And clearly we did. I don't think that's even up for debate right now. He was never healthy. Things were not looking good from him from the jump.

And just to keep it super brief, this is my biggest issue. I'm not upset that the Falcons played him even though he was hurt. Okay? I'm not upset that he's been bad. I'm not upset that they drafted Michael Pennix and had him. I'm upset at the arrogance. That's what I'm upset about. I'm upset at the fact that the Falcons really sat down and they thought we could play

Kurt Cousins who can't throw the ball faster than 30 miles an hour and nobody's going to notice. not the fans, not the media, not the league, no one will notice. And they noticed about five quarters into the NFL season. So shame on the Falcons for their arrogance. Michael Pennix probably should have been playing the whole season, but I digress. And you did have a bet on like Pennix to win an offensive rookie of the year, right? Like, uh, is there still a chance?

Maybe throw us out a thousand yards. Yeah, it was to lead the league and passing yards amongst rookies. So, uh, you know, never say never, but you know, got to throw out, uh, uh, I have a couple of... Got to have a whole of a couple games here. If he ends up leading rookies and passing yards, he will run rookie of the year, by the way, even if he does it in just three games.

But, you know, Michael Pennix, I think this is circling back to the podcast here. I have to, I have to think that he's part of your slop for this week. He is part of my slop this week. And he's a part of several parts of the slop. So let me just dive in here. So the first part, this is going to be the easiest. leg. They're never easy for me, but this is the easiest leg. We got Pennix over one and a half

passing touchdowns. Okay. We forget kind of that this is actually a good offense, right? And Michael Pennix comes in and what was the what was the book on Pennix when he was drafted? He's maybe the most pro ready quarterback in college football other than potentially Bo Nix. So we know he's ready to play right now. So I feel like this isn't your typical rookie coming out, you know, the first game, and especially since it's against the Giants, I feel pretty confident that he's going to, he's going to put on a pretty nice game and look pretty good in his first outing. So that is the first leg of the bet.

Yeah, no issues there. I mean, they're big favorites here against the Giants. Did you agree with the line moving towards the Giants when they announced Pennix as the start? I guess that's a little bit of surprise, but I think people are worried about a rookie making his first start, but I don't know. It can't be worse than what Kirk's doing. Kirk can, there's sections of the field he's not able to throw.

row to. So just having that option should raise this healing regardless of who the quarterback is out there. It's been atrocious with Kirk. So yeah, I'm surprised to see it shift in that direction. What's the, uh, what's the second part of this? So we got the passing touchdowns. I'm going to go for the yards too, or are we going somewhere else? We're going to go for some yards. But first, before I get into the real, there's kind of a skeleton key to this play. I'll save that for the last pick. But the next pick is I'm going to go to the other side of the game, actually, with Malik neighbors. Okay. We're going to take. take malik neighbors for 80 receiving yards okay it's going to be plus 165 he leads the team in

routes out wide about 75% of the time and the falcons actually are giving up a league worse 6.3 schedule just at fantasy points per game to wide receivers out wide bolstered probably a little bit by that Vikings game i would have to imagine uh but they're the falcons are bad they're they're struggling against the past i know the quarterback question is is a little concerning but malik neighbors is a dog. I think 80 yards is doable, especially if we're assuming that Pennix is going to have two touchdowns. It's going to be a little bit of a high scoring game for the Falcons, at least. The Giants are going to have to keep up by throwing the football. Give me Malik neighbors. Yeah, we know he's going to get every target from the end. It looks like Drew, Drew Locke's going to be the

quarterback this week. So yeah, he's going to get targeted a lot. So if we get two touchdowns from the Falcons, they're going to be chasing, should see, you know, I'll pencil them in for about 13 targets in this game. This third leg, okay? This is one of those rare plays where I feel like there's reason to believe that you've got a really good shot at hitting this one particular leg, and it's a plus 750 leg by itself. Oh, gosh.

We're going deep. Ray Ray McLeod to have 80 receiving yards, 80 plus receiving yards in this game. And I will tell you the logic behind this play, okay? The Giants are surprisingly decent against the pass as far as schedule adjusted fantasy points per game are concerned. However, if they're vulnerable anywhere, it's out wide, specifically out wide to the left. Ray Ray McLeod is second in the team in routes from out left. Darnell Mooney's first, barely, and then it's Ray Ray Ray McLeod playing out wide on the left side of the field. Also, which you don't see very often, Michael Pennix is lefty.

He's left-handed. So. Oh, man, this is deep. Mooney potentially is the better play here. But for the price and for the value, it could be Ray Ray Ray McLeod. And you'd be surprised. No, maybe not. Ray Ray Ray McLeod has had 90 receiving yards in two of his last three games.

You might be surprised to know that. Yeah, I would be. How much of that is because, though, Kirk Cousins can't throw the football? Well, here's what I would say. Well, probably a good chunk of it. But, and it could be a London game. London gets a sizable amount of his out wide routes out left as well. One of these guys is going to blow up.

They're pretty even as far as the routes are concerned. And one of the players just has like the tastiest line of ever. You know, the other guys are floating in the 60s and he's down in the 30s. So I could definitely see Ray Ray Ray McLeod putting on. on a little bit of a clinic here. And like I said, this is the skeleton key to this play. That's what bumps the final number so far up. And if you're not feeling the rest of this,

take some Ray Ray MacLeod ladders. Take really any of the Falcons wide receiver ladders, but I'd start with Ray Ray MacLeod because the value there is just, it's too juicy. Now, I don't know if you guys have noticed here. You know, sometimes your brain plays a little trick on you. Michael Pennix's name looks like another word. Yes.

I've noticed that. Have you? Yeah, I have. Sometimes your brain does play a little trick on you and you see, I've got a nickname for him now. On this podcast, henceforth, he shall be known as the third leg. Yeah, the third leg. So, Michael, the third leg, panics.

Well, he will be, he will absolutely, you will stamp that in gold. We're going to get a T-shirt made. What are the odds on a podcast? If good friend T-Trey hits this. I thought for sure you'd go with a London or a Mooney. I didn't think you'd be sick and twisted enough to go with the Ray Ray McLeod. Final leg.

What is that? What's that all pay out there? If we got a plus 750 leg with Ray Ray MacLeod, what are we looking at? So Seizers was a little scared to let me parlay that, actually. They wouldn't let me put that together. But using an odds calculator, it was about in the 4,000 range. I don't know. Depending on, yeah, what the book is and how the legs.

correlate and specific book practices. It might be higher or lower. But yeah, again, like Mooney is probably the best play based on this thesis, but just the value's not quite there if you're trying to get up into that number. So in London, another great play if you're buying into what I'm buying into right here. But yeah, Ray Ray looks almost as good, not as much name value, but that plus 750, that can do a lot of good for you. Speaking from personal experience, there are no third legs sitting here in this room.

Just three guys. We're not wise. We're just guys. But I hope everybody enjoyed this edition of the Best Betts podcast. Good friend Trey bringing it with Michael Pennix. T. Bro and his Best Betts article, remember to check out Fantasy Points.com for that early bird special running now through Super Bowl Sunday. You will be glad you did. You get all of the 2025 season.

no strings attached for whatever package you decide to get 20% off. That's Tom Broly, that's good friend, Trey. My name is Joe. Merry Christmas. Happy holidays. Happy Hanukkah, from what I understand it, starts on the same day as Christmas this year. Happy Kwanza, the happy college football playoff. Yeah.

Happy NFL Saturday season. All of that stuff. I hope Sandy Claus treats you well. I hope Santa Brawley treats you well. And everybody, please have a safe and healthy holiday. Thank you.