Fantasy Football Daily - Week 17 Start/Sit Decisions | Championship Week Lineup Locks & Risky Fades

Starting point is 00:00:00 Yo, welcome to the fantasy football daily feed. I am Graham Barfield, and you're listening to the Week 17 Start, Sit podcast. If you've made it this far, you're in the finals. Congratulations, pat yourself on the back. it's been a fun long fantasy season obviously injuries have you know they're always a part of the conversation in fantasy football just managing those have been is always a part of the fun but especially this season especially in the back half of this year so congratulations getting this far and what has objectively been a pretty tough fantasy season week 17 man i love fantasy finals week

Starting point is 00:00:55 pressure's on and it is always a lot of fun they say that pressure is a privilege lean into that don't tilt and enjoy the football this weekend merry christmas happy holidays and happy new year to everybody celebrating or not celebrating over this holiday weekend hopefully you guys absolutely crush in your leagues and we are here this week to walk through the week 17 slate. Start sits this week I think are pretty straightforward in that like running back is once again very strong. I was looking through our projections led by Chris Wecht here at fantasy points and yeah I mean 24 of the top 50 plays on this slate at flex positions are our running backs. I think it's just an amazing week there. Receiver we've got some obvious must start receivers at the

Starting point is 00:01:53 top. However, I think quarterback and tight end are the two kind of trickier spots to figure out this week. So we're going to spend a little more time on the onesie positions on the show than we typically do. So let's get into it. Let's get started with quarterback. And like I was saying, I think it's probably the trickiest position to figure out this week. We've got a very clear top eight in terms of the projections, top nine. This week, Drake, May, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Dack Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hertz are the very clear must-starts. And then from there, I think we've just got this, like, massive tier of quarterbacks that kind of pooled together from like QB10 to QB16.

Starting point is 00:02:44 So let's get started and sort through that tier. And I think, you know, last week, Jacoby Berset finally failed us right like this is a guy we have been relying on for consistent value and volume for every single start that he's made and he's delivered finishes a top 12 scoring quarterback in nine out of his last 10 games last week though the volume finally dried up Atlanta dominated the time of possession in that game they held the ball for 36 minutes limiting the Cardinals to just 54 plays. And prior to last week, I mean, the volume was literally some of the best we've seen in NFL history.

Starting point is 00:03:26 Brissette averages 46.3 pass dropbacks per game. And obviously, this is just a great shootout game environment here. Bengals, Cardinals has the highest team, excuse me, over under on the slate. Cardinals, pretty good team total. Bengals have the highest team total on the slate at 30. points. So with Burrow pushing, the bengal is pushing the scoring pace, obvious bounce back spot for Brissette. And, you know, Cincinnati's just been getting torn up all over the field on the second most passing fantasy points per game. So I think Brissette, after Hertz and Stafford

Starting point is 00:04:07 and Purdy, I think pretty clearly he's like at worst, QB9 or QB10 on this slate. There might be some questions on our Sunday Start Sit show with myself and John and Tom about Berset, but I'm pretty much treating him as a must-start quarterback this week, borderline must-start. One quarterback we've liked is a streamer quite a bit over the last couple weeks, and he really popped. Again, last week was Tyler Shuck. He's just been solid, man, like solid, real-life quarterback. I think the armed talent is very clear with him.

Starting point is 00:04:39 You know, he still makes a couple, like, head-scratching plays. He'll take a couple bad sacks, but the good is, you know, way more valuable than his handful of bad plays. He's QB 15 by fantasy points per game since week nine. He's just a few tents behind Bo Nix and Justin Herbert in that span. And once again, he's the best streaming quarterback option on this slate. I'd treat him as like QB11 or QB12 in the rankings this week. New Orleans just completely abandoned their run game.

Starting point is 00:05:09 They basically said, screw it. We're not going to do anything with Adrogastime. We're not going to design anything for Evan Hall. we're going to go super pass-heavy they called their most past heavy game plan of the year with a plus 17% pass rate over expectation. And I expect that to continue. And it's not just because of the backup running backs. We'll talk Taysom Hill a little bit later. But this is just a worst possible matchup for the Norland's run game.

Starting point is 00:05:33 Titans have a bottom five, you know, yards per carry allowed. They're amazing in terms of their success rate allowed since Jeffrey Simmons returned to the lineup a few weeks ago. truly a difference maker there in the interior of that defensive line. Titans have been awesome against the run as of late. So I think they shut down the Saints run game and Shuck has to throw a ton this week. Right after Shuck I let Caleb Williams is like the QB12, QB13. This is a player that we've had on the sit list for basically the last month and rightfully so. He's been just basically like a middling QB2.

Starting point is 00:06:10 Over the last month, he's QB 16 by fantasy points per game in that space. but impossible not to love this matchup. It's kind of like the Jacoby-Berset corollary. Just a huge potential shootout here, 52.5 over-under against the Niners. I think Caleb Williams has a huge ceiling here, especially since San Francisco has allowed seven different quarterbacks

Starting point is 00:06:33 to finish top 12 and weekly scoring against them this season. And obviously, Old Man Rivers last week just threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns. If you haven't already, go listen to the first. Philip Rivers miced up on YouTube. It is some classic grade A Philip Rivers content. You love to see the guy back.

Starting point is 00:06:54 He's legitimately hilarious. But Caleb Williams, really strong quarterback one play this week, like him a lot more than I typically do. And it's just game environment matchup. Last eight weeks, San Francisco has no pass rush. Basically, none. 27% pressure rate forced by far the league low in that span. Purdy's must start. I like Caleb Williams quite a bit as well.

Starting point is 00:07:22 On the lower end of things, one quarterback, I definitely like a lot less than I typically do. And especially last week, we loved Justin Herbert in that matchup. I think anybody who's played fantasy this season like Justin Herbert in that matchup, but yeah, got there with a huge 30-point fantasy burger. in the semis to get us to the finals round. So, you know, you might be tempted to go back to it. I just can't do it here. And it's not anything to do with Herbert.

Starting point is 00:07:52 I still think he's playing really well. It's just this offensive line could get completely overwhelmed. The Texans are second pressure rate at 45%. They just don't blitz. They just, like, get there with their front four. And that is like the worst possible news for Justin Herbert, right? I mean, they're, you know, back to their third string right tackle. obviously left tackle has been out as well all season so i mean it's just uh it's a brutal spot

Starting point is 00:08:18 for herbert he projects is like qb 18 qb 19 in our projections this week and honestly i might have him just a little bit lower houston is that good finally this this pains me but i don't like jackson dart this week i can't believe those words are coming out of my mouth this has been our guy at fantasy points we've all loved jackson dart as a sight and he's proven us right all year. However, the last three games since he returned from injury, the Giants have like not tried to throw the ball. And it wasn't just last week. You look at their last three games. They have a negative 11% pass rate under expectation by far the lead low. And it's just completely torpedoed darts passing volume. And the only thing that's really leaving him on

Starting point is 00:09:07 the QB1 radar this week is the rushing upside. And that's kind of limited now too. They've really He has just 15 carries in 90 yards over the last three weeks. I know it seems like a good spot against the Raiders. Giants still have a pretty decent implied team total. But Dart is like kind of in that Justin Herbert pocket for me this week. QB18, QB19. You play them in Superflex leagues for sure, but I really question the upside in one quarterback leagues this week.

Starting point is 00:09:37 We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, We will be talking through running backs and receivers here on the Fantasy Football Daily podcast. Stick with us. Welcome back. Running back this week like I was saying is once again completely loaded. It is very clear at the top who the best plays on this slate are. Christian McCaffrey, Jemir Gibbs, Bejohn Robinson, and James Cook. Then after that, honestly, I would put Ashton Jancy as like RBC.B.C. This is just, I mean, you can't ask for a better layout, right? Like, goes ham against Texans last week, proves everybody, including myself wrong.

Starting point is 00:10:22 Jainty goes off. It just seemed like the Raiders' offense was completely dead against the Eagles the prior week. But here they are, one and a half point favorites over the Giants. And the Giants have been the league's worst run defense all season. And that's been especially the case of the last five weeks, giving up six yards per carry. JT is among the best running back plays on the slate along with Chase Brown and RJ Harvey I wrote them both up as must starts along with Devon Achan I know we've got some you know offensive concerns with the dolphins but still Achan remains must start great

Starting point is 00:10:55 matchup bucks giving up the fifth most yards per carry over the last eight weeks and then JT Barclay are right on that like must start fringe I think Barclay is pretty clearly must start with Elaine Johnson back, like he doesn't project as nearly as well as Bijan or Gibbs or McCaffrey, but I think you can make an argument for him scoring almost like those players this week with lane back and in that matchup, Bill's run defense is terrible. Travis CTN, man, I mean, it's just like the top 15. It's just completely loaded. Travis CTN is a part of that group, just going to get a Belcal workload. from then on two players that kind of stood out to me as better RB2s than usual we like

Starting point is 00:11:41 tyrone Tracy quite a bit last week just going right back to it it's the same analysis as last week giants have been super run heavy he's gotten a pretty good role 65% of the snaps and three out of his last four games like tyrone Tracy is among the best RB2 plays on the slate along with ken gain well you know we're going to see this offense even more condensed around these running backs without D.K. Metcalfe. Gainwell is probably the best RB2 on this slate. Target chair has been really good. Six more looks and five out of his last six. And Cleveland's run defense has really kind of been cracked as of late six most rushing yards per game over the last two weeks. So really great spot for Gainwell and

Starting point is 00:12:25 Warren. Two running backs that I also like a bit more than usual this week are the Seattle running backs. I know everybody has, you know, pretty much given up on this backfield at varying points in times this season. Last week, they pulled us back in again. Ken Walker, 164 yards on just 14 touches. Obviously, Charbonnet got the goal line touchdown on the opening drive, which is just hilarious because we're accustomed to it with Seattle at this point. But listen, I think both these guys are upside flex options. Obviously Walker has more standalone and upside. Carolina is a bottom 10 run defense by yards per game and success rate allowed over the last eight weeks. So if you think Seattle kind of controls this game, there's seven point

Starting point is 00:13:11 favorites. I kind of do. I think they control this game. It's a very, very good spot for Walker and Charbonnet. I think Walker is low-end derby-two. Charbonnet, a pretty good flex. Michael Carter has gotten a very good role over the last two weeks without Bam Knight. He's handled 67% of the snaps, gotten 64% of the carries. Like I'm a little more than typically. I like any Cardinals running back all this season. It's the role. You know, they're just down to Amari Di Mercado.

Starting point is 00:13:44 And I think, you know, this week, this matchup is just so good. Bengals getting crushed on the ground, giving up 5.1 yards per carry. Over the last eight weeks, love Michael Carter in this matchup. the Cardinals could win this game for sure. They could keep this game close and potentially win it. Now, everybody was kind of on Carter last week. He disappointed us a little bit, but the role has been so good. Just going right back to that.

Starting point is 00:14:13 One final quick note on running back this week, Trevion Henderson might miss, unfortunately, with a concussion. Keep your notifications on, see what the case is over this weekend. But if he misses, I think Romander Stevenson will be, must start in my start sit article he'll be like right up there with you know r j harvey chase brown devon a chan saquan barclay in terms of his projection just going to get a huge workload attached to obviously a great patriot's offense all right let's keep moving to receiver this week we've got obviously chase json puka just in unbelievable spots those three

Starting point is 00:14:59 have been the clear top three receivers in terms of projections for the last number of weeks. I think you could also lump Chris Olave, like the low end portion of that grouping. The volume has just been incredible, 25% or more of the targets in five out of his last six. Then we've got the Cowboys receivers, Lions receivers, and Cortland Sutton, along with AJ Brown, kind of wrapping up the wide receiver one pool. I think if you've got Drake London, if you survived last week, you just, go right back to it. The volume was okay, got the targets, just shaking off the rust. Atlanta's obviously going to have to, you know, they're going to be in trail mode,

Starting point is 00:15:38 you know, trying to chase the Rams, chase this game script. Moving on down to the wide receiver two pile, though, that's where it kind of gets interesting this week, y'all. Jalen Waddle, I like quite a bit. I think Quinn Ewers has just been serviceable. That's all Waddle really needs this week, right, is just serviceable. Quinn Ewers has delivered a 79% catchable throw rate on his 41 dropbacks this season according to fantasy points data. Obviously, we're comparing two vastly different sample sizes, but to a tag of a low is catchable throw rate only 76% this season. So at least it's been like on par. Waddle has gotten amazing volume, 26% or more of the targets and fight about

Starting point is 00:16:21 of his last six games. So this, you know, this entire passing off, is just going to continue to flow through him, and the Bucks, you know, they've just been kind of trashed by receivers, tight ends as of late, given up the 11th most yards per game, and fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. Staking with the Dolphins real quick, I still do kind of like Darren Waller as well. We'll lump him in in this conversation too. You know, the role has just been middling. He's been like tied in two by volume since returning, but last five weeks bucks have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends they've gotten killed by pretty much everybody every good titan they face mcbride kyle pitts have both crushed them uh you know

Starting point is 00:17:06 you can question the upside here because waller's still kind of a part-time player but i did want to throw him in this discussion with wattle while we're talking dolphins just because he did kind of stand out a little bit to me in terms of the matchup when i was going through research last week we finally got some life out of these cult receivers after Daniel Jones went down. Kind of seemed like Pittman and Pierce were, you know, trending to like unusable wide receiver three, four territory. Rivers obviously can't push the ball super far downfield, but he can still get into the intermediate areas on time and rhythm 10, 15, 20 yards down the field. And that's all we really need in this matchup. It's just like a perfect matchup for Pittman and Pierce. Jags are giving up

Starting point is 00:17:50 the third most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers. And Pierce and Pittman were both pretty strong. In the last game, they had against the Jags with Riley Leonard. Pierce had five catches, 80 yards. Pittman had nine for 79. Like Pittman and Pierce's low-end wide receiver two's, I put them maybe just a step below. Jalen Waddle is, you know, the kind of the wide receiver two guys this week that we like

Starting point is 00:18:14 a little bit more. Stefan Diggs as well. I put, you know, Diggs ahead of Pittman and Pierce. Not too, too far, maybe a point or two behind those guys. Coles should obviously have to throw a ton in this matchup. Jags are touchdown favorites. I think you can also throw in Josh Downs as like a wide receiver three or flex and PPR leagues this week.

Starting point is 00:18:37 He doesn't project as well. I don't believe as Pittman and Pierce do just because the matchup is so good and the volume should be pretty strong for both those guys. But Downs, you know, he's been playing a lot more with Rivers. They finally have just gone with full. three wide receiver personnel run around on 82 and 84% of the past plays over the last two weeks. We've seen rivers hit downs on those kind of timing patterns underneath a number

Starting point is 00:19:02 of times through these last two weeks. So, you know, it's kind of easy to paint a picture for both Pittman and Pierce along with Downs. You know, Downs obviously doesn't project as near as well, doesn't have as much upside, big play upside as Peter Swart Pittman, but he's still on the board as a wide receiver three or flex. All right, we're going to keep moving to tight end. Tight end this week is

Starting point is 00:19:28 kind of tricky to figure out after really just the top number of tight ends. Like at the top, we've got Trey McBride and Harold Fanon. Those are the only two must start tight ends that I see. Brock Bowers is out for the season. They shut him down with his knee injury. George Kittle is very question.

Starting point is 00:19:46 to play with an ankle injury. If Kittle does play, you just, you have to play him. I'm going to play Kittle on my teams where I still have, still have him, and I'm just dressing him in finals lineups. Pitts, Juan Johnson are the clear tight-in three and tight-in four. They don't project like must start, but that's just kind of where they land because we've kind of been cleaned out by injuries at the position here.

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Starting point is 00:21:23 One guy I would clearly have as the tight end five on this slate, I guess if Kittle doesn't play, he'd be the tight end six if Kittle is in. It's Dalton Schultz. He's just been solid, man, like really solid. I keep talking to John Hanson about this. Like, no one really cares about it, but Schultz is tied in 7 by fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks. He's tied in 6 by targets per game. He just continues to get it done. The volume continues to be pretty good. And it's an ideal schematic matchup for him, too, Chargers.

Starting point is 00:21:54 Basically, don't play any man coverage, and that's great news for Dalton Schultz. He's averaging two yards per route run versus zones compared to under one yard per route run against the man coverage. Like I was saying, I think Schultz is at worst. The tight end six, seven, on this slate and honestly i could make a pretty decent argument for him slightly higher slightly higher than than juan johnson at least from there on it's kind of a bunch of streamers honestly um yeah it's just it's a it's a very very tricky layout Travis kelsey obviously very very hard to trust with the chiefs going to their backup quarterback Dallas goddard's been good but now he's in like a worst possible matchup. Obviously, you know, targets have kind of condensed

Starting point is 00:22:42 around he and AJ Brown as of late, but the bills have been excellent against tight ends, giving up just 2.8 receptions per game to tight ends. So I think Dallas Goddard is off the board. I would also eliminate bills tight ends. Dolan Kincaid is not 100% healthy, still dealing with in the injury. He is probably going to be a part-time player for the rest of the season. Got one target, didn't catch it last week, and the Eagles, in my opinion, are the best defense against tight ends this year, just playing awesome in the middle of the field, giving up the fewest yards per game. So we've got, you know, some tight ends that we've been kind of relying on is back-in tied-in ones and just, like, brutal matchups. So a few tight-ins that I like more is, like, streamer types than usual Hunter Henry really stood out to me in early research. Seems like Kay Sean Booty is going to miss this game.

Starting point is 00:23:34 He could miss this game with a concussion. and that will really help target volume, obviously, just condense around Stefan Diggs and Hunter Henry. Henry has six or more targets in four out of his last five games and, you know, a decent volume coming his way. He's a good streaming tied-in this week. I like him as the number one streamer, and I would have him as like tied in eight, tied in nine on this slate. Jets have allowed these six most yards per game to tight-ins over the last five weeks. You know, Henry's certainly got some big playoff. side in this matchup.

Starting point is 00:24:08 Plus, obviously, we've seen the touchdown, you know, upside with Henry plenty of times as well. This feels like point chasing. Like, I'm just going to be honest with Taysom Hill. It really feels like point chasing because he's been completely dead all year, right? Like, coming back from the ACL, he's 35. Like, I get why he's really been a non-factor. But out of nowhere, the Saints brought back the old Taysam role with no Kamara, no Kendrae

Starting point is 00:24:33 Miller no devon neal they said screw it audracuse me avon hole we don't we don't trust you guys we're just going to play tason hill he got you know team high 12 carries he had 42 yards he also had four catches for 36 he threw a touchdown to alave on that play that was awesome and he got 43% of the snaps so yeah it feels like you're yeah he's still just a part-time player 43% of the snaps like you know he could score just like five or six points if he doesn't score a touchdown but I think if you don't have if we don't have kiddle we don't have bowers like we are really looking for upside on this slate and obviously we've seen Tayson score 18 20 fantasy points in this type of role before I think you can chase it I it doesn't like in terms of process it's it's not the best process to chase these types of plays I like Hunter Henry a little more that's why I was mentioning Darren Waller a second ago as well it's like once we get into after tight-in five or six, it's really shaky this week. I think you can make an argument for Hill

Starting point is 00:25:37 inside the top 12 tight-ins this week, even on this kind of limited role. And obviously, he could score two goal-line touchdowns. They've been using Tyler Shook, you know, near the goal line on design runs, you know, using him in the Reds-Oen and design runs. But they could obviously do the same thing with Taysam Hill. I think the touchdown upside is real.

Starting point is 00:25:57 The floor is very, very low, though. So if you're an underdog and you need a streamer, I think Taysam swing for the fences. On the lower end of streamers, Mike Gassicki probably has a slightly higher floor than Taysom Hill, I think, especially if no affant misses. Gassiki has run a route on 75 and 67% of the past plays over the last two weeks. That's both season highs, back-to-back games. And, yeah, I mean, if fan is out again, Gassiki's going to be a near full-time player, attached to Joe Burrow, attached to this Bingle's offense that's implied to score 30 points. obviously this could just be

Starting point is 00:26:33 Jamar Chase or Chase Brown two touchdown game but Gassiki he's got a decent floor just because he's a full-time player targets will find him and this is a really really good matchup Cardinals have struggled to defend the middle of the field. They're giving up the 11th most yards per game to slot receivers

Starting point is 00:26:48 and the six most yards per game to tight ends. So in terms of streamers this week I'd have it Hunter Henry Tason Hill, Mike Gassicki in that order all like tight in nine through tight end 12 um i would i would play all of those guys over Travis Kelsey jacques ferguson dallas goddard bills tight ends uh i would play them over

Starting point is 00:27:15 colby parkinson i probably wouldn't play any of them over britain strange though i think britain strange is a pretty decent you know low end tight-in one kind of around darren in terms of his projection this week similar argument the volume hasn't been great it's just a really good matchup Colts have been bad against tight ends. They've got some very, very slow linebackers and safeties. So I do like strange as like tied in 12, Titan 13 on the slate, Colts giving up the fifth most yards per game. And Ronde Gadsden is kind of dead to me after last week. It was a perfect matchup for him. He played a full route share. Basically didn't earn targets. This has kind have been the case for him over the last couple of weeks really is, you know, the route share

Starting point is 00:28:04 has remained good. He's a full-time player, but he's just not earned the target. They've been spreading out their targets very flat. It's super frustrating for fantasy. They're also playing Troy Harris a lot more. It's become a very, very frustrating passing offense for fantasy. And we're already lower on Justin Herbert this week. One more desperation tight end streamer this week. I think he'd be like tied in 17 or 18 in rankings. Michael Mayer is set for a full-time role. I'm not excited to play Michael Mayer at all, but he has gotten 80% of the routes. If you're just like completely screwed tight end, Gaseki, Taysam, both got gobbled up on waivers. I think mayor will be out there and he's certainly serviceable. We're going to get a, you know, like I said, full-time role.

Starting point is 00:28:47 Giants have been okay against tight-ins this season, so it's not like a great on-paper matchup or anything, but he could lead this team in targets with no Brack Bowers. It's just going to be Trey Tucker and Jack Besh at receiver for the Raiders this weekend. So, Mayor could get six, seven, eight targets and be okay in PPR and tied in premium leagues. Guys, that's going to do it. This has been awesome. We've had 17 straight great weeks here on the Fantasy Football Daily Feed talking starts and sits with myself and Theo Griminger.

Starting point is 00:29:19 Theo is out with his family. this week so I flew solo hopefully gave out some good advice we've had a pretty good year on the show I feel like we've given out some very very strong advice few misses hopefully this week we have

Starting point is 00:29:34 another good week with a lot more hits than misses if you haven't already subscribe to fantasy points you can do so now with our early bird special it is 20% off your 2026 package plus you'll get the rest of

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Fantasy Football Daily - Week 17 Start/Sit Decisions | Championship Week Lineup Locks & Risky Fades

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