Fantasy Football Daily - Week 4 Lineup Advice (Fantasy Football Start Sit)

Episode Date: October 2, 2026

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Starting point is 00:01:33 on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. I am Brett, and I'm joined by Scott. Of course, we're diving into the remaining five games of this week for StartSit. We accidentally did a 4 p.m. game in yesterday's show. Make sure you guys watch that show. We cover all 16 games throughout two different shows.
Starting point is 00:02:00 And we left some time today. That's why we balance it a certain way. We left some time so we get to some questions from the listeners. And we're going to do that. Scott, how are you? I'm doing good. I'm doing good, Brett. How are you feeling today?
Starting point is 00:02:12 You feeling okay? I'm feeling better today. Yeah. Are you good? You know what I realized? Because I'm starting to get under the weather too. Strep throat has been running through my house. It is the time of year where the cold comes back, right?
Starting point is 00:02:24 It's kind of fall now. And maybe not down in Texas, but it's a little chilly in Michigan in the morning. It's wet. kids are back in activities mixing with other kids things spread around a little bit better yeah man it's that time of year well i think it's funny that that youtube chat keeps diagnosing me with various ailments uh my friend was watching the show and his wife walked by and she's like oh is scott dealing with uh histamine issues again does is he having a mass cell activation flare up or something he texted me like oh it's funny you mentioned that yeah he's like oh you're going
Starting point is 00:02:57 take vitamin C, you're going to take an antihistamine pill. You got to, and then yesterday, I just kept going like this and you're like, do you have a migrant? I'm like, yes. I have a killer migrant. Was the person whose wife guest, was that somebody I know? Yeah, yeah. I guess it was it JP? Yeah, it was JP. All right, all right. Shout out JP. Shout out JP. Well, let's dive in. Listen, we do this every single day, every single week on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel, Fantasy Football Daily's helping you win fantasy leagues every day. If you're not currently a subscriber, which like data-wise, 70% of you aren't, go ahead and subscribe to the channel.
Starting point is 00:03:35 Turn notifications on. Don't miss a single video. We're breaking it down every single day for you. All right, let's go. Kansas City Chiefs in division game against the loss. Wait, what is this show, Brett? What do you mean? What is this?
Starting point is 00:03:46 Who are, who are you? Why do I care what you have to say? Who am I? Oh, we got to do this? Okay, I, you are Scott Barrett. you're the the analytics darling of the fantasy community you uh darling you watch games via spreadsheet and you you proudly wear that badge and it's crazy because i would normally clown on somebody who only lives in a spreadsheet for their football takes but you your football takes are
Starting point is 00:04:15 better than 99% of the film experts i know so i think this is amazing and you and you are one of the best film experts in the game so many times you had to take like puka nakua coming out of college hey this guy reminds me of justin jefferson this guy is easily around two caliber pick he goes day three i'm like you're an idiot this guy's a nobody he never had a 50% route share low and behold pukinakua is awesome and you've done that like 50 hundred times so we got more recent examples now but i know puka's the crown jewel because he's so good well i just have him on all my dynasty teams and I'm just dominating everyone, so thank you for that. Yeah, and, you know, fantasy points data wouldn't exist without you.
Starting point is 00:04:58 And so basically it should be a meeting of the minds analytics fantasy football nerd, film expert, and then you watch this, it's like getting a PhD in fantasy football. Like if you want to be a fantasy football genius, you've come to the right place. Heck yeah. And you know, we're going to be breaking down game by game. Who are your starts helping you with your starts? sit decisions. These are off of Chris Wex fantasy projections, which were best in the industry last year, helped someone win a million dollars playing DFS. And yeah, we have people who watch this show
Starting point is 00:05:34 who don't play fantasy, who just make bets. If we're really high in a guy, you know, you could ladder him. You could throw him into a parlay. So there's a lot of different stuff you can do. Right on. All right. The Chiefs, we're diving in. The Chiefs are traveling to Las Vegas to play the Three and O Raiders. This is incredible. The Raiders start today or this season has been unbelievable. It's crazy what coaching does for you, where, like, Kubiak is clearly this culture guy,
Starting point is 00:06:04 and he's elevating the roster around him. Kurt Cousins is running the offense. All that to say, it's a tough matchup for the Chiefs. I'm sure when the schedule came out, they didn't earmarked their two Raiders games as tough matchups, but here we are. Casey's currently favored by four and a half on the road. that's pretty wild. The over under in this game is 48, which is one of the highest numbers of
Starting point is 00:06:24 the week. We're calling everyone on the chiefs basically a start, at least the four you guys you see on the screen, Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Rashi, and Travis Kelsey. And I do think to some degree, these are all obvious, right? You obviously have to start Kenneth Walker. You're obviously starting Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelsey also. What about Rashi at Widerstreet receiver 15? I know we're not, we're not debating whether he's a start or not. But do you? Do you think 15's a little high here? Yeah, of course I do. This is the one player that Chris refuses take the L on.
Starting point is 00:06:57 And he was like close to getting there last week. But then Rishi had a big game. I know Xavier Worthy got hurt in that game. Andy Reid afterwards said he's fine. It was nothing. He only missed a few snaps. But it looked like he was back in the role of old. So week one, Rishie Rice had only a 7.4% target share.
Starting point is 00:07:16 That's awful. And the next week, 10.6. I'm taking victory laps. Chris, you're wrong. Take the L. It's over for Rishi Rice. Last week, 37.5% target share. Heavy led the team in screen targets.
Starting point is 00:07:30 So it really looked like he was back into that role of old. So, you know, I still think he's too high. But, you know, given that amends target share, I can't be too mad at it. Okay. Yeah, there's really not much here. It's tough to say what we have in the Raiders, because they were so bad last year. They've already matched their win total from a season ago.
Starting point is 00:07:54 Isn't that crazy? They won three games last year. You're muted. Yeah, that's certainly crazy, but it's not just that. It's like looking at all the various metrics. So we have Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Rishi, Travis Kelsey, all his super starts, like high-end, mid-range, QB-1, RB1, tight-end one. And I get it.
Starting point is 00:08:17 They rank seventh best in EPA per drop. back third best in EPA per run. But I'm looking at this Raiders defense, Brett. They rank second best in EPA per play aloud. Second best. Like that's in between the Vikings best defense to Seahawks elite defense. They have nine turnovers. No one else has over six.
Starting point is 00:08:38 Even if you schedule adjust it, like that is freaking insane. Their pass rush looks incredible. Max Crosby looks unstoppable. Is it possible? And you, a four point. five point spread for a team that only won three games last year. And this is one of my big takes coming into the year is just like, I think Clint Kubiak's a genius. And this team is going to massively overperform.
Starting point is 00:09:00 Is it possible the Raiders win this game? Is it possible the Raiders just really make life difficult and we're a little too bullish on all these players? Oh, is it possible? Yeah. I think it's possible. I have the Chiefs like, is it likely? Is it probably? I wouldn't say it's likely or probably.
Starting point is 00:09:19 I think the spread's a little out of whack here. Four and a half seems... What do you think it should be? Three. Oh, okay. Two and a half. Yeah. Two and a half.
Starting point is 00:09:28 Yeah. That's great. Yeah. Dude, Casey's a road... They're a road favorite by four and a half points. You just don't see that a lot in the NFL, especially when they're going against a team. That's three and oh. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:37 And then you look at the chief schedule. Like, they haven't really been tested yet. Denver played... In week one, Denver played more bad than the Kansas City Chiefs played good, if that makes sense. Like Denver lost that game more than Casey won it. Yeah. And then they played the Colts and the Dolphins after that.
Starting point is 00:09:55 It's like they really haven't been tested. That Dolphins game, I've said it a thousand times this week, was way closer than the score of 24 to 10. That was a nail biter, you know, well into the fourth quarter there for the Chiefs. So yeah, I think there is a chance the Raiders win this game, and I certainly think they cover the spread. So my one concern now flipping over to the Raiders side, though, is like, well, Spagnolo is a freaking maddenial.
Starting point is 00:10:19 scientist wizard on the defensive side can he take brock bowers out of this game and like will they have a game plan that isn't taking brock powers out of this game no they won't spagnolla is going to come out with the sole intent of i will make you beat us 11 different ways but i will not let brock bowers beat us do you think they can do that uh to great success why not well i wanted to kind of pause here and and hover over this a little bit um you said something on our Monday morning show that you know all these people out here saying Brock Bowers is a wide receiver that's that's not true and then you look at the the stats like all of his targets came when lined up me X in the slot yeah uh you have Ben Solac you
Starting point is 00:11:09 have Mina Kimes you don't Dan Orlovsky don't do this to me all gushing over him being not a tight end but being a real wide receiver And then you have my guy, Max Descano, remember the tight ends substack. He's always been very critical of this. He's like, you don't understand. Like the worst wide receiver is like exponentially better at playing the wide receiver position than the best pass catching tight end. Like this is such a misnomer. It's not a real thing.
Starting point is 00:11:38 And then Max watched the tape. And he was like, oh, baby. This is this is literally Drake London 2.0. Or better yet, it looks like he dropped 15 pounds from a season ago. looks like he dropped 15 pounds and now he's jordy nelson and what did you see you saw 39% target share 95% route run raiders playing 12 personnel over 50% of the time and guess what their EPA per play from 12 personnel is second best in the league 11 personnel their bottom five so this really looks like the best fit for the offense michael mayer by the way interesting stat in fbs history there's only
Starting point is 00:12:14 two tight ends to have multiple 800 receiving yard seasons in their college career. One is Brock Bowers. The other is Michael Mayer. So both very strong tight ends. And yeah, 10 catches, 116 yards, one touchdown. It was a career high 39.4% target share. Very interesting, Brett. His first ever game with Clint Kubiak, career high in Target share. When you had Ryan Pagnetty who said last year, their goal for the season was to get Brock Bowers to break the record for receptions for a tight end in a single season. And so, yeah, I'm thinking back to when you said, you know, it's actually really, it's so much easier to scheme a tight end out of the game when he's your number one receiver than it is a wide receiver. You just put, you just put a top cornerback on him
Starting point is 00:13:05 and he's done. But what if that tight end is Drake London? with a tight end designation? What if it's Shorty Nelson with a tight end designation? And a year from now, if Brock Bowers agent has his way, we're not calling him a tight end. We're calling him a wide receiver. Or is this, is this really stupid? People have tried this. They tried it with Mark Andrews. They tried it with Mike Gisicki. They even tried it with Tray McBride. It's not happening. He's going to be designated as a tight end. He plays tight end. Even these reps against at the X receiver role you're talking about, defenses as of right now, are still treating him like a tight end out there.
Starting point is 00:13:44 And they're not, yeah. I don't want to rehash this entire conversation. He's a tight. He's a move. I think it's a good conversation. It's not because it's just a bunch of people on Twitter repeating the same tropes over and over and over. It's the biggest names on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:13:57 And I don't care. I don't care. I don't care. You have to prove your point here. Yeah. I already have. How have you? Because he's not being used any differently than Trey McBride or Mark Andrew.
Starting point is 00:14:11 or Mike Jaseki. We've seen this time and time again. Go, just Scott, I know you don't watch football, but go turn on the tape, watch the 11 catches he had. It's a hitch in the middle of the field, completely uncovered zone. He had like one catch, I think,
Starting point is 00:14:25 where he actually won a route. Everything else was freely given to him. It was off play action. There was a glance behind a corner on play action. There's, you know, he has to win a contested ball out on the boundary on an out route. The first throw of the game was an outrout underneath coverage. They ran a stick with him a ton.
Starting point is 00:14:43 They ran spot with him a ton. And the one thing he does really, really well, too, is the transition from catch to run is elite. But he, he's being used exactly like a tight end would be used. He just uses a move tight end. Not he's not being used like Drake London. You mentioned Jordy Nelson. I just want to punch you through the screen.
Starting point is 00:15:00 There is literally no similarities between Brock Bowers and Jordan Nelson. I can think of one big one. Yeah, exactly. That's why you made the freaking reference. They tan really easily. Because I come off looking like I don't like Brock Bowers. Brock Bowers is awesome. I know.
Starting point is 00:15:16 So why he's awesome? I don't hate him. I just hate calling him a X wide receiver. That's not what he is. So he had eight targets last week lined up out wide. He had four from the slot. He had two in line. Kind of kind of looks like he's an ex receiver to me.
Starting point is 00:15:30 Okay. Tell me about those out wide X alignments. Go ahead. Well, I could just go into fantasy points data suite 2.0 and hit export on, the route report and see what those routes were. Right. I just told you what they were.
Starting point is 00:15:46 I just told you what they were. They're reducing him close to the tackle box, right? So he's playing X, but he's basically a detached tight end. So is he not playing the JSN role? Because all the fantasy nerds on Twitter are telling me it's the JSN role. No, it's not the JSN. Maybe in target volume alone, it's the JSN roll. So you're Steve Spagnolo, one of the most underrated
Starting point is 00:16:09 defensive coordinators of all time. I think he has the record for most Super Bowl wins or appearances by a coordinator. How do you stop the Raiders? I bracket and double Brock Bowers on every play. The same thing I did to Jalen Waddle in week one. Okay. And you do that with a cornerback? It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:16:34 Do you know what a bracket is? It's not double coverage. It's so it's zone. basically. Okay. So if Brock Bowers lines up in a two by two formation, you're going to naturally play three defenders over those two receivers. So you're going to take away inside, you're going to take away an outside pass, and you're going to take away the over the top pass. And I'm going to play bracket. And even if I'm in cover three, I'm still bracketing within that cover three. And I'm rolling my safety to his side. Yeah. And if you're going to ISO and play like a one by three with him as
Starting point is 00:17:05 the ISO, which happened in this game, yeah, I'm going to come up. I'm going to get a body on him at the line of scrimmage. There's going to be a linebacker taking away his inside leverage. We're not just going to let them dink and dunk with him down the field, which is what happened in this game, by the way. This was dink and dunk. I think he had one intermediate target, maybe two. Maybe the glance was beyond 10 yards, but one deep out and then one, uh, one glance. Everything else was dink and dunkin. So we have bowers projected for 17.4 fantasy points. That's probably, that really could be the most we've ever projected him for. I could pull it up later, but, um, Do you think that's high?
Starting point is 00:17:40 Do you think that's low? It sounds like you're a little more pessimistic here. It's not that I think it's high or low. It's like I feel like we're not considering the fact that Spagnolo is his, bro, he probably hasn't slept this week figuring out how he's going to take him out of the game. There is no other options on the Raiders offense. Zero. Like I can live with one-on-one-man coverage on Trey Tucker,
Starting point is 00:18:03 on Jalen Naylor. He's a good deep threat. Great. You still have to, it's still a low. percentage play is good of a deep threat to see is it still loads percentage play i'll give up one field flipper for the sake of taking brock bowers out of the game yeah yeah yeah so yeah so i just feel like we're not consider it's worth talking about yeah obviously you're starting brock bowers you can't like you're starting him you're probably very happy you get to start him but
Starting point is 00:18:30 youtube chat let me know do you hate this this like nuanced uh discussion where we're trying to Just nuanced winging about. Yeah, yeah. Or do you just just shut up and just tell me to start Brock Bowers? You could have said that in two seconds. He's awesome. He's tight end one in your rankings this week, start him. That's part of the show.
Starting point is 00:18:52 We want to add context to the obvious guys. Little context. I mean, I like it, but do you like it? That's the question. Yeah. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive. The price is right for. Fortune Pick. BetMGM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly.
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Starting point is 00:20:21 Cousins, QB27 sit, Trey Tucker, Wider Super 49 sit. But Gentie, running back 9 as a start, obviously you're starting Gentie, but we have them clearly as an RB1 on the week. You cool with that? Yeah, that's fine. He's he's second an XFP per game, but he's his efficiency is awful. And that's kind of just what we've seen through him all throughout his career per sources. You know, like that that might just be who he is. I put him on the Naji-Harris spectrum, which is to say like maybe early career Leonard for Nett spectrum, which is like the volume is going to be awesome.
Starting point is 00:20:57 And he's always going to fall a little short of that. But volume is the most important thing at the end of the day. Kansas City is a really tough defense, especially on the ground. But yeah, still, yeah, and he's dealing with an ankle, so that could explain a lot of the lack of efficiency. But yeah, you're starting him as a low-end RB1. I think it's possible we're underrating Kirk Cousins, who has three touchdowns in every game now as Brock Bowers. I think it's possible we're underrating Trey Tucker, at least from like a DFS perspective or a, I don't know, parlay perspective or something. Just he reminds me of like Kirk Cousins new Dardell Mooney.
Starting point is 00:21:35 And I said that to to Ryan Heath after his big game. And Ryan's like that, well, that's not encouraging at all. I'm like, I mean that in a complimentary way. Because I'm remembering 24, Kirk Cousins had Dardell Mooney and Drake London. London averaged 2.25 yards per route run. Mooney averaged 2.03. Like it should never have been that close.
Starting point is 00:21:56 Why was it? It's a good stylistic fit. So if the Chiefs and their, one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, sell it to stop Brock Bowers, which they should. It could leave Trey Tucker on man coverage, which is a winnable matchup. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:11 By the way, you know who my comp for Darnell Mooney was coming out? Who was it? Jameson Crowder. Oh, interesting. You know who Kirk Cousin's favorite receiver he played with in Washington was? James and Crowder. Wow.
Starting point is 00:22:24 The best wide receiver named Jameson of all time. And the stream. On the show. Denver travels to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. The spread is favoring the 49ers at home by two and a half, over under a 47.5. This is an interesting one because, you know, starting on the Bronco side of the ball,
Starting point is 00:22:50 they can't run the football, Scott. You see that in the projections. Dobbins RB 32, Harvey, RB 33. It has been wild how bad they've been in the trenches on both sides of the ball this year. It makes me wonder if that's maybe fake. It's still early in the season. Maybe they figured that out as time goes on.
Starting point is 00:23:07 But for now, at least, they can't run the football. But we also don't love Bo Nix in this game, QB11. Where are you at on Nix? I have an interesting take, but I want to know what you think. Yeah, Bo Nix to me is like trailer park, Tyler Shuck, where he, he's like a fringe QB1 every single week, even though he stinks. Bro, he stinks. Since he came into the league, he's bottom five and everything, catchable throw rate, completion percentage over expectation. But he runs a little bit, drop packs per game.
Starting point is 00:23:39 He's always going to be very high. And his pressure to sack is really good. But that's it. Otherwise, bottom five and everything. So he could just get there on volume, even though he stinks. So I really can't get to. Go ahead. This is my theory on Nix and why I think we need to slowly start fading him in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:23:58 Yeah. Last year he led the NFL in dropbacks. Do you know why? Why? Because the defense was phenomenal, and the defense gave them a lot more cracks at the apple. Go look this year. He's 21st in dropbacks.
Starting point is 00:24:13 And that's a trend that seems like it's going to continue. They cannot control the line of scrimmage the way they used to. Interesting. They're getting run on at a really high rate. Their pass rush isn't as good as it was. Patrick Sertain just gave up, you know, had his worst game as a pro. and that's because the line of scrimmage isn't being taken care of. And so I think if we're living in a lower volume world with Bo Nix,
Starting point is 00:24:34 he's probably not a QB1, Scott. Yeah, but I think the volume is going to be there this week because I think the 49ers are going to push them, put points on the board. And you saw it last week, right? There was a ton of play volume. You got to be able to sustain drives, though. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:52 Well, what's really interesting and could be a reason why we're, too high on Bo Nix and actually not high enough on Jake Hed-Ovins and R.J. Harvey is the 49ers, interestingly, are the league's biggest run funnel by pass rate over expectation and by a fairly wide margin. You know, weird things can happen when you get its three straight blowouts, but it does seem like offenses are preferring to pick on them on the ground than through the air. I don't know if you think there's anything to that. And J.K. Dobbins, yeah, the efficiency hasn't been there. Although it's been there every year of his career. yards per carry or better just about always this year not but he had 17 carries two targets
Starting point is 00:25:33 last week all right you want to hear another crazy thing about the Denver Broncos offense yeah just just leaning into my point here last year they were top five in punts drives that ended in punts in three and out percentage this year they are also top five what is the big difference in production. Last year, their defense was good. This year, their defense is bad. So the other team that's getting the ball, they're sustaining drives, their scoring points on Denver. Meanwhile, that's killing clock and Denver's playing with the slower pace of play. So I really think this is a big deal to watch long term. If their defense continues to falter the way it has, we need to be way more sour on this entire offense than we were at the start of the year. So.
Starting point is 00:26:24 that's my thing. I mean, could it just be that the Broncos have had a tough strength of schedule, Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams? It very well could be that. But it's something to watch for sure. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think their past defense should remain good,
Starting point is 00:26:46 but their run defense is bad and going to be bad, right? Mm-hmm. Yeah. All right. We're starting Jalen Wals. despite everything I just said this is the first we're probably too low on him right because I think so yeah because you said well week one they sold out to stop him week two he goes off week three these sold out to stop him and in the 49ers do
Starting point is 00:27:09 not have the horses to commit to take him out of the game especially when you consider Nick Bosa and Michael Williams are still both gonna miss this game they don't have the pass oh wow it sounds like the 49ers are running bad with injury luck That's interesting. Yeah, exactly. They don't practice next to Chernobyl. Yes, they do. They do.
Starting point is 00:27:33 They do practice next to Chernobyl. Yeah, their stadium, that's in the Bermuda triangle, right? That's where they. Bro, this is my thing. Like, I'm not a 49ers fan, but like, my heart bleeds for you. Like, if you had just like average injury luck, you would have more Super Bowls than Patrick Mahomes easily. you guys are cursed or it's the the haunted 5G EMF substation or both yeah all right on the 49er side of the ball
Starting point is 00:28:06 brock pretty we're too low on Brock Purdy I knew you're going to say that but that seems that seems right the efficiency he's playing it and as we've laid out the Broncos defense hasn't been scary at all this year McCaffrey or B two so yeah so Brock Purdy's current the overall QB2 in fantasy points per game he's like the QB3 over his last 10 games 22.8 fantasy points per game he gets about 30 rushing yards every week now and you said the Broncos defense isn't as imposing he's he's having one of the best starts to a season ever like by EPA per dropback adjusted net yards per attempt so I think he's a start yeah I think he's a start as well I'd start him over Bo Nix for sure I would too I'd have him
Starting point is 00:28:54 over Jalen Hertz as well. Okay, that's fine, yeah. I'd probably have a pretty like QB8. Yeah. And then I would drop Bo Nix, you know, a little low. I'd at least get Bryce Young ahead of Bo Nix. So. All right, Christian McCaffrey, RB2.
Starting point is 00:29:11 So we're projecting- Are we starting Christian McCaffrey this week, bro? I just think it's notable that he's ahead of either Bejan or Gibbs. I haven't looked to see which one, but that's interesting. Well, his snapshot jumped to 82% in what was, San Francisco's first competitive game. This looks to be competitive. 49ers are favored, but only by two and a half points.
Starting point is 00:29:31 And then a big question is, do the Broncos suck against the run? And boy, do they? They're giving up the second most rushing yards per game to running backs and the second most receiving yards per game to running backs. And that is important for a running back like Christian McCaffrey, who can do it all. And especially will he do it all when they don't have to be. have any wide receivers who are healthy. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:58 Where I think maybe we're a little low is Debo Samuel. Mike Evans is out. I know George Kittles a monster, but Debo doesn't play, like he's not going to get a certain shadow. He travels too much for that. You think wide receiver 33 is a little low? Yeah, I thought he looked good last week on that touchdown run. Didn't look like fat, Debo.
Starting point is 00:30:22 He looked like fast Debo. I love that he had an infinity yards per target average. He had zero targets, 80 receiving yards. But it is a little worrisome. He had zero targets, you know. I mean, you got a target from Mike Evans. He didn't get one from Brock Purdy, despite all the injuries. Instead, it was just locking on to George Kittle.
Starting point is 00:30:43 So I think this is on point. I think George Kittle is a top three tight end. I think Debo Samuel is on the fringes, unfortunately. But theoretically, like I had heavy Devo Samuel and DeVos Samuel and DeVille. FFS last week. I thought he was a great play, but he had zero targets, whereas George Kittle had a 46% target share after Evans went down. It makes me feel more confident in him, surely. Pretty rare to, you know, start a guy in DFS, have him get zero targets and him still put up
Starting point is 00:31:12 14 points. Yeah. All right, the Los Angeles Chargers travel to the Seattle Seahawks to go 0 and 4 Seattle's favored by 7 in this game at home. The overrunners 43. This is gross. As you can see on the screen right now, if you're watching a YouTube or Spotify, there's a lot of red. We're saying sit Justin Herbert, sit Amarine Hampton, flex Ladd-McConkie, sit QJ and sit Irronday Gadsden. Gadsden. But I want to have a conversation about Ladd-McConkey. Wide Receiver 25, so high-end wide receiver 3 slash low-end wide receiver 2. you're still comfortable with this, even though we're saying sit the whole thing.
Starting point is 00:31:55 Yeah, yeah. It comes down to the Tyreek Hill role, which is one of the most valuable roles in fantasy. I love what I have seen from Ladd McConkey. The only issue is, I don't know that he's fully healthy. He was up to an 84% route share last week, but with this injury, it's very possible. He's shying away from contact,
Starting point is 00:32:19 you know, wearing the flack jacket. you know, scared to get hit too hard. And so, yeah, I don't know that we're going to see like full on Max Powers Ladd McConkey like we saw in week one, which is awesome. It was like, you know, it was like the Zay Flowers role, really, for just a shittier offense. But last week, he trailed Quentin Johnson. He trailed Trey Harris and targets. I don't think that ever happens if he's 100%. So I feel like wide receiver 25 is a good hedging. And then yeah, dude, it's it's bad out here in these streets in a tough matchup to be fair but you have all of these guys and sits and it looks like your take in the offseason was one of the best one out there it's
Starting point is 00:33:01 the if boy thing is real justin herbert is massively overrated one and then two mike mcdaniel is the biggest fake sharpened football he's not a good offensive play caller and wow look at all that red. On the other side of this, the Seahawks side, a lot more red. Obviously, you're starting JSN. JSN is probably the most matchup-proof player in fantasy right now. And on top of that, he's the most role-proof player. It doesn't matter what their game script is or what they're doing.
Starting point is 00:33:33 This dude is eating. I wanted to ask you about Judarian Price, though. Long-term this season, he's clearly a sit this week, in my opinion. But long-term this season, how worried are you now? remember before the season started we were kind of on the fence with him versus jeremiah i love where it's like 50% chance price scores more than love this year oh man was that a bad take yeah well jsn i think is embarrassingly low like i don't think he should ever be lower than two yeah in any matchup he he averages 35 fantasy points per game the next closest wide receiver
Starting point is 00:34:10 is at 25. He's an outlier, rightfully so. We need to treat him as such. He's on a warpath. Yeah, well, he's averaging 4.22 yards per team pass attempt, which is just like a proxy for yards per route run that lets you have that stat, you know, back in like the 1950s. And his 4.22 yards per team pass attempt would be the most since the 1950s.
Starting point is 00:34:34 Lance Allworth in 1965 is second. And then JSN's 2025 is third. Like if I had an MVP vote, I'm betting, I'm putting it on JSA. Over your boy, Brock Purdy? Yeah. Yeah. Wow. Okay.
Starting point is 00:34:49 Yeah. The role he has is akin to like if Devante Adams had the same role he has for an entire season or if Puka had that role for an entire like that's, they don't have anybody else. There's no number two guy coming. Well, that's what I was saying is is like since the start of last season, throw out JSM, throw out the ramp. receivers. The number one wide receiver is I'm on Ross St. Brown with 0.63 fantasy points per route run. But JSN is over 0.8. And then the Rams wide receivers, when one of them is out, are over 0.9. Those are like...
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Starting point is 00:37:21 I know. The over-under is the second highest total on the week. Detroit has the highest implied point total on a team basis, I believe. At least last time I looked, they did. So on the Detroit side, it is pretty easy. Start them if you got them. However, I will say this. We are egregiously low on Jameson Williams this week.
Starting point is 00:37:40 And I've been dying to talk to you about this. And I actually called Christopher Wecht. Okay. Our projections. We talked about this. Chris is doing good. He actually, bro, he actually just built the sickest Chrome extension for my charting team. Oh.
Starting point is 00:37:52 That makes their life so easy. It's unbelievable. Anyways, I'll tell you about that off air. But I got into the Jameson Williams thing with him. And he agrees. We are a little low on Jameson. He thinks Williams is going to have a big week. But here's the problem.
Starting point is 00:38:07 Jameson sucks? No, at wide receiver 35. We're the highest in the industry on him already. Yeah. So there's not a lot of it doesn't behoove us to move him up too much higher than that like if we're aiming for Obviously our goal is to be the most accurate for you guys But you know we have to think about hedging a little bit right so I hate that. No, let's let's let's just you know Put it drop her nuts on the table and he's he's he's moving him up. He's told me he's moving him up. Don't worry about it Hey, so I
Starting point is 00:38:36 I I hate Jameson and I like hating Jameson. I enjoy that and Guess what? It's never burned me just because he's so overrated. But so the argument against him is like Sam Leporta just totally out alpha's him. Their last 12 games together, Leporta out targets in 68 to 59. But he is like one of the biggest regression candidates in fantasy. Right now he's the wide receiver 59 by fantasy points per game. And the wide receiver 18 by XFP per game. So it kind of looks like Chris just split the difference in that.
Starting point is 00:39:09 And I can't really be too mad at that. What looks to be a pass heavy shootout, what looks to be like the biggest up and pace game there is. Like you're going to see like, it could be like 150 plays total in this game. And so, yeah, I think I think kind of everyone's a start. I think even on the opposite side, I think I disagree with that. It's like I kind of just want to start everyone. Well, we'll get, we'll get there on the Carolina side. My last point on JMO, it's schematically a great match for him.
Starting point is 00:39:39 Carolina's been living in single high coverage, a lot of coverage. a lot of cover three. Jamo has torched that throughout his career. His biggest games have come when he catches these types of matchups against the single high stuff. Not to mention, both of Carolina's starting outside cornerbacks went on IR this week. J.C. Horn and Mike Jackson, Jr.
Starting point is 00:39:56 This is one of the best cornerback tannums in the league. This is already a bad defense, Scott. And they just lost their two starting outside cornerbacks for it looks like eight games apiece. Not great. Jameson Williams is going off in this game, Scott. telling you right now this is my my bold ass call of the week he is going to have a huge ass and we'll have we'll be celebrating a jameson williams monster outing cool you're muted
Starting point is 00:40:25 again uh can tell scott has a cold because he's riding the mute button yeah we're it's it's uh yeah it's it's tough out here in these streets i'm gonna disagree with you brett i'm gonna give me the give me the under on jameson because he's staying his line is 50 yards. You want the under on 50 yards? No. He's going to have a 50, at least one 50 yard reception in this. Yeah, yeah, that's all he'll do.
Starting point is 00:40:54 All right. All right. You win this one. On the other side. I mean, he's not going to have a, it's not going to do too much more than that. But six receptions, 110 yards, and a touchdown. Minimum. Three for 63.
Starting point is 00:41:07 You're wrong. And a touchdown. On the other side of this, Bryce Young, QB14. I did talk to Chris about this. as well. I think Chris is going to nudge Bryce up a little bit. I think he's going to get him above at least Bo Nix. But I think you have to, I don't know how you can tell our subscribers to sit Bryce Young against this line's defense in this potential game script. Yeah, bro, it's crazy. He just had three of his seven best ever games by passing yards have come these past three weeks.
Starting point is 00:41:38 You see massive play volume way up in pass rate over expectation. He looks good. And then it's a Detroit Lions defense that's given up over 100 passing yards more than any other defense. And they're giving up the most rushing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks as well. It's just... Bryce Young doesn't run. No. He scores rushing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:42:03 Bryce Young or Brock Purdy this week? Purdy's playing Denver. I'd say it's a coin flip. Okay, Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud? Young. Bryce Young or Boenix? Young. Bryce Young or Jalen Hertz?
Starting point is 00:42:21 Probably hurts. Really? Against L.A.? Yeah. Really? I think I'll take Bryce over all those guys not named Brock Purdy. He's firmly a QB1 for me. Chuba Hubbard, stardom. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:42:38 Like, we're projecting me as a running back one. an RB1. I don't love that. Detroit's really good against the run. Well, here's a stat for you. He's finished top 12 and fantasy points at the position every single week. Only other running back who could say that is Jemir Gibbs. It has an 84% snaps here. He gets 82% of the backfield XFP. I like it. You're starting him anyways because, you know. But yeah, yeah, you're probably right. Okay. Ted McMill and Jalen Coker, we're projecting wide receiver 22 and 23. That is interesting. to say the least.
Starting point is 00:43:13 Yeah, well, we talked about McMillan on the Bilo episode. I don't like that Darren Waller had more targets than him last week, but he did have a career high routes run from the slot and the offensive play caller was like, yeah, he said basically what you're saying is like defenses are selling out to stop him. So we need to move him around and get him into more favorable matchups more often. He's also just running really bad. He is the worst catchable target rate in the league.
Starting point is 00:43:38 What's crazy about that is it's like a fraction of that of Jalen Coker. So Jalen Coker's running hot. He's a negative regression candidate. Tett McMillan major positive regression candidate. Lions are getting destroyed by the deep ball. They've given up the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers on deep passes. So Xavier Leggett, then, fire up. I mean, that's, you know, that was Ted McMillan last year. That's been a lot of Jalen Coker this year. I like Darren Waller way better than tight in 26. I'm not going to say go ahead and start him, but if you're like in a big time tight end crisis and got to grab a guy off waivers i think waller is a fine start this week Detroit is given up at least 90 yards in two
Starting point is 00:44:21 touchdowns to tight ends every game this season Scott well Ryan McDowell had the best stat i've seen the lions have given up five tight end one performances this season three games yeah so hey Darren waller just led the team and targets brother giving them 33.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends. That's 60% worse than the next closest defense. So yeah, I would have them like probably wide, I'd be tight end 14 somewhere around there is the lowest I would go. Nice. All right. That leaves us with last but not least, the Atlanta Falcons traveling to New Orleans to play the Saints. New Orleans is favored at home by two and a half. Good over under though, projecting 47 and a half points. I like that.
Starting point is 00:45:11 This should... Yeah, give me the over, actually. Yeah, give me the over. I think the Falcons defense, while they have played out of their mind so far this year, I think it's a little bit built on glass. And so I think New Orleans will definitely give them all they can handle, especially with that pace of play they run at. I like the over in this one, too.
Starting point is 00:45:32 Let's start on the Falcons side of the ball. Pennix to sit, obviously, at QB25. Probably don't know how much more I like him. What are you laughing at? Bro, look at Kyle Pitts. He's not a start. He's not a sit. I talked to Chris about this.
Starting point is 00:45:49 I talked to Chris about this. I was like, bro, tight end 33, you buried him. Yeah. You know he hasn't had a 10% target share in any game this year? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:57 Yeah. What? Bro, Austin. I mean, like Austin Hooper is outscoring him by like a good amount. You know what's crazy too? It's a lot of times
Starting point is 00:46:04 when you get a backup quarterback on the field, they throw a lot to the tight end. Yeah. Because it's like close to the line of scrimmon. a little bit more secure than ripping it over the middle to a wide receiver. Bro, this is rough. He's like the second highest paid tight end in the league or something. Oh, God.
Starting point is 00:46:22 Well, this isn't, for the record, this is not a Kyle Pitts problem. It's not? No, I think Kyle Pitts is a fantastic player. I don't know about that. Okay. So who's, you also think James and Williams is bad. Well, quarterback play has been a big issue. This is a fantasy show, okay?
Starting point is 00:46:39 I don't, I don't care. James and Williams is like, well, if this is the fantasy show, then don't, then don't push me on my Kyle Pitts take. So James and Williams is poor man, Will Fuller,
Starting point is 00:46:50 where he helps the offense, even when he doesn't get the ball, just because he, he threatens you deep. You have to play them differently. And it blocks his ass off. And, yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:01 For fantasy, he's overrated every year. Kyle Pitts is just a fraud. It's just every year we do this. Every year he's drafted as the tight end seven. And every year he, gets cucked by
Starting point is 00:47:13 Austin Hooper and like every year every year Drake London stays healthy and is on the field yes
Starting point is 00:47:21 okay well Drake London doesn't stay healthy very often Scott okay well he's healthy this week do you know
Starting point is 00:47:28 Kyle Pitts has more receiving yards than any other tight end by their 26th birthday and NFL history that's that's kind of crazy
Starting point is 00:47:36 but I mean he also has was like one of the youngest tight ends ever to come in the league so so yeah okay the stat applies for fifth year tight ends as well okay he has he has one 100 yard game over the last four years so that arbitrary benchmark of 100 yards is what determines the players good or bad uh dawson knox all have like twice or three times as many uh instances col come and dawson knox play on way better offenses
Starting point is 00:48:07 Falcons have been a dumpster fire. It's actually been a very fantasy friendly offense given like the amount of targets up for grabs. Because it's super consolidated. Bro, the number, yeah, the number two, that's huge. The number two receivers, John Dodson. It doesn't mean the offense is good.
Starting point is 00:48:22 Kyle Pitts is on pace for 113 receiving yards this year. And do you think that's Kyle Pitts's fault exclusively? Yeah. I think this guy stinks. Okay. And he can't block. He's only a past catcher. He was awesome. He like coming out go why bro watch his his old miss game his final year of college
Starting point is 00:48:46 It's like I would have taken this guy first overall like he was unbelievable But you know injuries surgeries Confidence issues I don't know he he's rip I think that's on point tight end 33 buried You want me to list off some some tight ends he's behind in the projections I got it right is this is this is this is this too painful for Darnell Washington oh hell yeah Colby Parkinson sick yep Evan Ingram Greg Dulcich yep yeah Gunner Helm oh that's a dagger yeah Gunner freaking Elm Mike Jasecky Darren Waller Tyler Higby Michael Mayer mayor mayor's
Starting point is 00:49:26 he's two spots ahead of Zach Hertz Zach Ertz Zach Ertz Austin Hooper's 42 maybe we should move Hooper up. Yeah. All right. This one's really simple, guys. Start Bejohn Robinson, start Drake London, sit everybody else. Yeah, man. On the New Orleans side, I had a good stat.
Starting point is 00:49:53 I like everyone but the running backs, but. Bejohn Robinson averages 24.6 fantasy points per game, and Michael Pennick starts. That would easily lead all running backs. Saints are giving up the six most fantasy points per game to running back. second worst in success rate on the ground. Drake London. He's hit 100 yards in six of his last seven games started by Michael Pennex. Average is 121 yards per game, 24.8 fantasy points per game. Dude, Michael Pennings, I don't think is any good, but he is gangbusters for the Falcon superstar playmakers. Cool. Tyler Shuck, we're starting. We're projecting QB3 in this?
Starting point is 00:50:35 Yep. Whoa, Scott, that's, you like that, you're comfortable with that? I think so, yeah, this is, this is part of my justification for why I think this, this, this game goes over. The Falcons are, to me, a major pass funnel. Their run defense is top three and everything. EPA per run, the rate at which running backs are contacted behind the line of scrimmage, blah, blah, blah. And like that's exactly how the Saints want to play it or should be playing it. You know, they just lost Travis Etienne.
Starting point is 00:51:14 And we were saying like what's going on with this the fourth quarter thing where the Saints are a bottom three offense. The first three quarters, their top three. What's going on there? I think it's they just abandoned the run, which they should have done a lot sooner and let Tyler Shuck ball out. Over his last 10 games, Tyler Shuck ranks third and XFP per game. The volume is great.
Starting point is 00:51:36 Ranked sixth in fantasy points per game. He had four touchdowns last week. And so, like, yeah, the Lions game, I want to start everyone. I think that's a pass-heavy shootout with a ton of play volume. Same thing here. I think this is a pass-heavy shootout with a ton of play volume. And I kind of want to start everyone except, well, yeah, I don't want to start Kyle Pitts. I don't want to start the running backs on New Orleans side, but everyone else I'm very bullish on.
Starting point is 00:52:00 It's crazy because the Falcons, you said it's the past. Well, they've been pretty good against the past still. So excellent pass rush, yards per target, EPA per dropback. They're really good in all those metrics. But I do think, like I said, I think this is a house of cards. Like I think the Falcons defense will start to get exposed. And the saints have a way of doing that with the way they play and the pace they operate at. Chris Oliva wide receiver six, that feels right.
Starting point is 00:52:27 Devon Vele, wide receiver 20. Is that 29? Yeah. That feels right. start them in a flex spot joan johnson tight end nine i like that joan's been balling you're a joan hater though so hey i i like this projection you know right now he's top three and among tight ends and fantasy points per game it's just like not consistent it's not going to stick uh he only only has a 13.6% target share he's like a 63% route share but he leads the position in end zone targets
Starting point is 00:53:03 and I think it routes run as well. So I don't know, this is what I would have in that is for now, low end tight and one. In a great spot for Tyler Shuck. And then obviously sitting Kendra Miller and then Alvin Camara. Well, not obviously. I mean, he split the work with Alvin Kamara 50-50 last week. I would actually pinch these guys a little bit closer. Would you?
Starting point is 00:53:25 Yeah. So I mean, neither I'm excited to start. But like if you're, if you have a marriage, well, I'd probably still. still start at Marion Hampton. But if you lost Devon A. Chan and Breece Hall and you're desperate, you can do a lot worse. Okay. A flex play at running back potentially or a replacement player. All right.
Starting point is 00:53:47 Our fantasy commission says for him it's all about the friendships. Cute, Kevin. But I disagree. Like with about 365. I get paid the second my team goes up big with early payout and can cash out at any time before the game ends. No hard feelings. Kevin. Just faster payouts from Bet365. The home of
Starting point is 00:54:07 winning early. Must be 19 and older. Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you were someone you know is concerns about gambling, visit connectsonterio.ca or call 18665 through 1.2600. Terms and conditions apply. New from Nespresso. Blend wellness into your coffee routine with a coffee plus range infused with functional benefits. Choose the coffee
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Starting point is 00:54:57 Grow is built with AI embedded at its core, working across every system and it's ready to go from day one so you can hit the ground running bring it with sap grow AI cloud ERP for any size business i think that's it for the start set this week are we going to hit some questions sure all right let's let's do a couple so a couple all right this one we got is a good question but it's kind of a mouthful and so we're going to have to parse it out slowly but i'm going to read through it one time try to retain as much information as you can, Scott. There are two types of offensive coordinators, those who concentrate
Starting point is 00:55:36 targets of their best players, but you don't know how they will do it, guys like McVeigh, Kubiak, versus those who spread targets around, but you don't know who is getting the ball, guys like Ben Johnson, Kyle Shaneahan, Matt and Mike LaFleur. Last year for Kubiak, it was all about JSN. For the first game he was healthy, it was all about Bowers. So my question is this, what are the similarities and differences in how Kubiak's scheming touches for Bowers versus JSN is Bowers really in the JSN role? We kind of answered this already, but I wanted to bring up the question because I like the juxtaposition between these, quote, unquote, two types of offensive coordinators.
Starting point is 00:56:17 It's something worth talking about. I think there's more than that. You have, you know, those are all the good coordinators, right? But I do think there's a few more archetypes. Um, do you have anything you want to say here? It's just purely for me. Uh, you go and then I'll pick it up. There's a few things I want to touch him.
Starting point is 00:56:34 Okay. So as far as the Bowers versus JSN thing, Bowers is not playing the JSN role. We've, I laid that out at the beginning of the show. Right. We, he's playing the Jordy Nelson role. We got it. Yeah. No, he's, he's playing, um, a dominant target hog, tight end role.
Starting point is 00:56:54 Trey McBride. Mark Anderson is prime just with the deployment alignment and stuff but yeah nothing it's nothing downfield though and JSN is like a ton of stuff downfield so it's it's all pretty is out to the boundary stuff like that that's not not really what Bowers is doing so anything you want to add yeah so I think this is a really interesting framing it's the guys who spread the ball round guys who feature it to just the one and I always gravitated to like Like it's stupid to just feature your one because teams can just sell out to stop them. And then your offense can't do anything.
Starting point is 00:57:33 You see that with Jalen Waddle. You know, sold out to stop in week one. The offense sucks. Sold out to stop in week three. The offense sucked. It was dead. And, and yeah. And so like this was my argument against JSN.
Starting point is 00:57:45 I'm like, hey, listen, I think he's unbelievable. No one was higher on him than I was when he was coming out. And he, you. He just had like what I said I would have voted for him for MVP last year. It's incredible. But it was this can't be sustainable. They have literally nothing else. The ball is going to JSN every passing play.
Starting point is 00:58:08 And the defense knows the ball's going to JSN every pass play. And yet there's no regression, Brett. Like it just keeps working. And not only is it working, it's working in spectacular fashion. True lock stinks. True lock is a dummy. We've been over this. But just throwing the ball to,
Starting point is 00:58:26 JSN 50% of time turns it turns him into a top five quarterback like either JSN is like literally the best wide receiver since Jerry Rice and this is insane or there's something else at play here and I don't get it it doesn't make sense to me like how how can't you just like bracket him can't you just cloud coverage him can't you just what how is this working it's blowing my mind Are you asking me? Yes. Well, so if you remember like early in the off season, we did the show where I talked about all of these, you know, play calling hacks, my four main buckets or whatever. Well, what you've seen from Seattle is it is, it's just an element of disguise.
Starting point is 00:59:12 It's, they use this heavy personnel stuff to get into these favorable matchups where you do have JSN on an island because you have to respect the Seattle run game. And so there's the element of surprise there. They mix up the personnel groupings. They add the play action stuff in. They motion him around when they need to to get the matchups they want. They implement early down passing. There was a game last year where I think JSN caught seven passes on first down. It's like whatever they need to do to get the favorable matchups and give you the element of surprise,
Starting point is 00:59:43 that's what they will do to get him the football. And it's continued through three weeks this year with the new coordinator. Is it O'Leary? Is that his name? What is his name? It doesn't even matter, but. Brian Fleury? There you go.
Starting point is 00:59:57 Brian Florey. O'Leary, Fleury. Same thing. I knew it was Irish. It's always Irish. It's always Irish. But yeah, so it's really just like a high implementation of the play calling hacks, and they do it as needed as well.
Starting point is 01:00:13 So like there's some games Seattle doesn't implement early down passing, right? But in a game we're like, hey, we respect the hell out of these cornerbacks. And it's going to be tough to get JSM the ball. We'll go early down passing to make sure we can get JSM the ball. And then guess what? Now our run game opens up because they're expecting pass on first down and we're running the ball. And then the cherry on top is that JSN is just a bad man. He's awesome.
Starting point is 01:00:38 So he's a team willing to get favorable matchups for him and he can win those matchups at will. It's a great combination. Yeah. So how can defenses can sell out to stop Waddle? to kill the Broncos offense. Is it because Dragon Webb stinks? Dragon Webb? Well, let me ask you this.
Starting point is 01:01:00 Can the Denver Broncos run the football? No, not right now. Can, right, can the Denver Broncos can't run the football? Do they implement 12 and 13 personnel at a high level? No. No. No. So is the play action game work at all?
Starting point is 01:01:17 No. No. So I mean the Seahawks have the worst running game in football this year by EPA per run. Yeah, but that's, that's not, so it matters and it doesn't matter. Over a long stretch, that will matter eventually. But right now it doesn't because we believe the team identity of Seattle is they want to run the ball on early downs.
Starting point is 01:01:39 So teams load up the box to stop that run. As teams, if that continues, right, and they suck at running the ball, yeah, teams will back off. And then that's when it gets harder to throw to JSN. But for right now, it works. Interesting. All right, let's ask you one. Oh.
Starting point is 01:02:00 Looking at the top 12 and XFP per game through the first three weeks, we haven't seen this much opportunity for the top running backs and wide receivers and fantasy points data history. What is going on here? Do you think top end players will continue to be this dominant? How does this impact the general fantasy landscape and trade market in dynasty and redraft? Obviously focus it on redraft, but you can you can throw in a little dynasty note here there too. Yeah. I would go to a weekly reports, Trey, and then I would change the category in the top
Starting point is 01:02:31 left to fantasy points, the stat to XFP, and then I'd take quarterbacks out and just sort by XFP per game. And so if you do that, you see Jemir Gibbs at 29 XFP per game. That would be the most ever by like, I think by two or three points. I think it's possible that sticks. If he says, stays healthy, which is a fairly significant if. And JSN, right below him at 26.8, it's the same thing. It's just like, the game of fantasy football is decided by outliers. And so it's a big mistake across the industry for fantasy analysts to be like, and hey, I'm guilty of it. JSN's going to regress to the mean. It's just not possible what he did last year for that to. And it's like, no, no, no, you lose out on the power law players who swing championships if you treat it that way so so these two
Starting point is 01:03:28 guys like it's very possible that they just break in wreck fantasy this year they just need to stay healthy um chris olive uh ashen gentie kenneth walker i do worry that comes down chriselavae i I know you don't, but I still worry about Jordan Tyson, still worry about Tyler Shuck falling back down to Earth a little bit, maybe the defense tightening up a little bit more, strength of schedule changing. Ashton Genty, again, he's, I'm 90% sure he just had the worst EPA season by a running back since Trent Richardson.
Starting point is 01:04:07 I worry he's on the Naji Leonard Fernette spectrum. And maybe he's on the highest end of that spectrum. which means he's still like a mid-range RB one every week. But just because the efficiency has been so poor, granted, maybe the ankle's bothering him. I do think we see Mike Washington mix in more. Certainly if you're looking for explosives in the run game, that's your better bet. Kenneth Walker, I worry about him staying healthy. I worry about, hey, if he has, Edwin used to think it was a sports hernia that would flare up from time to time.
Starting point is 01:04:41 It was like groin and then shoulder. If anything like that pops up, I think you see more of a committee or they take it easier on him. That really worries me. But no, it looks like the chief's new offensive identity is through Kenneth Walker for the most part. CD Lamb, yeah, that's going to come down. Pickens, I think is going to come up. And so, yeah, and then once you've regressed those, it's like fairly in line with what we've seen in years past. And that's just kind of the case.
Starting point is 01:05:11 Like if you look at a three-week sample size, like right, you could look at weeks one through three. You could look at weeks seven through nine. You're going to see guys with like a 29 XFP per game. But across a full 17-game sample, everyone kind of just regresses closer to like the top end is going to regress closer to like 20. And I think that's what we'll see. Okay. It's a good answer. Do you think, and this ties into another question we got, but do you think the 12 and 13 personnel stuff is helping these wide receipts?
Starting point is 01:05:41 though? It depends on the wide receiver, Brett. So like for the highest end wide receivers, it's massive. It's an efficiency cheat code. It's your target per route runs skyrockets and 12 personnel. It goes up even higher and 13 personnel. Why? Because your target competition is less.
Starting point is 01:06:01 It's easier to, if you're all running routes in a play, it's easier to get the target when your target competition is tight ends, rather than wide receivers. Why? Because wide receivers. receivers are just a lot better, better pass catchers than tight ends. Better at getting open, better at creating yak. And so that's a cheat code.
Starting point is 01:06:20 That was a major cheat code for Zay Flowers last year. It is again this year for JSN. That's been the case for, hey, we talk about Puka without Adams or Adams without Puka. Yeah, dude, that's the most valuable role in fantasy. He's competing for targets with like seven different tight ends and occasionally Kanata Mumfield. So, yeah, that's huge. it's also good for tight ends
Starting point is 01:06:42 and it's just bad for depth like you see fewer fantasy relevant wide receivers I think than you used to like the wide receiver threes of the world are less impactful than when we were living in the 11 personnel days the Sean McVeigh days
Starting point is 01:06:59 and so I think that's kind of how it's changed the game of fantasy beautifully done visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive the price is right fortune pick. BetMDM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly. 19 plus to wager.
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Starting point is 01:08:30 All right, let's end it on this question. We've got a couple, you know, people asking for us to talk about. Whoa, we got a super chat here. This is from Big Tony 27. $100 super chat. Wow. Thanks, Tony. That's huge. I really appreciate that.
Starting point is 01:08:45 Supports the channel. Tony wants to know, hey, Brett, why are you bald? That's a great question. Brett, you want to take this one or should I? I'll take it. You actually want to know the real reason? Yeah. Because every other day, I wake up, I get in the shower.
Starting point is 01:09:03 I take shaving cream and I rub it all over my head. And then I take a razor and I shave my head. That's why I'm bald. Wow. But you have like a thick full head of hair if you didn't shave it every day? No, heck no. Heck no. I had when I was in high school, I had dreadlocks. I've seen that. Yeah. Yeah. And so yeah, what ended up happening is my scalp and my poor started storing a certain hormone that kills hair growth. Because it doesn't run in my family on either side. Oh, interesting.
Starting point is 01:09:36 No one bald on my mom's side. No one bald on my dad's side. Usually you get that gene from your mom. believe but yeah full heads of hair everywhere except for me you looked exactly like john frou in uh pc u yeah people shout out pc u pcc is a good movie um it's yeah we'll have to do that as a bet where you take the over and a guy i take the under you have to if you win we'll do cooking with brett for five minutes at the end of our our friday episode and if i win you have to show a picture of you in dreadlocks ooh rough well let's make it the jamo bet set an over under on Jamo receiving yards and let's do it this week. I want some action, bro.
Starting point is 01:10:19 All right. We'll do, I'll take under 70 yards. Under 70? I'll take over gladly. Okay. All right. All right, cool. I can't wait for cooking with Brett.
Starting point is 01:10:29 It's going to be an exciting segment. All right, let's add this on one more question, though. We've got a bunch of people asking about Sequin Barclay. Apparently, we never talk about the guy. You know why? I don't think that's true. Why? He's dead to me.
Starting point is 01:10:39 Oh, is that right? He's dead to me. Yeah. Yeah. What is that? Well, because they got a guy named Drew Kendall starting at center, Tyler Steen at right guard, Cam Jurgens has moved from center to left guard where he's not as good. Lane Johnson's getting old.
Starting point is 01:10:55 This Eagles offense has been incredibly dysfunctional. Yeah, he's dead to me. And on top of that, Sequin Barkley, his nature, his general disposition as a running back is to big play hunt. Yeah. Right? So he takes a lot of- He's always been home run here. He was Kenneth Walker before Kenneth Walker, if we're being honest.
Starting point is 01:11:17 He was better, honestly. Okay, calm down. Right now, yeah, sure. Prime Sequin, do you think Kenneth Walker's better than Prime Sequin? As a runner, I think so. They're both equally frustrating. Whereas Kenneth Walker, at least, force miss tackles. Sequin Barclay doesn't force misdacles?
Starting point is 01:11:37 No, he always never really impressive in that regard. It's just he, in his best years, he would, he would lead the league or rank top three and explosive rushing yards. And that was really like the only stat he popped in. Interesting. Well, anyways, yeah. So because of the, the nature of Sequin Barcliffe, him, big play hunting, it's really hard to be successful with that model when your interior offensive line is garbage. And that's what we've seen. Landon Dickerson's on IR. Juergens is playing out a position. They have a relatively unknown and Drew Kendall playing center. It's tough.
Starting point is 01:12:12 Like, it's really tough watch. And so it's just really not a good blend for, for Saquan Barclay and what he's good at. I think, honestly, I think Tink Bigsby would probably be more, like, better suited for what they have going on on offense right now. As a runner, I think Saquan's a really good receiver. They should definitely use him that way more. They just won't. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:12:35 So if you want to be optimistic, you could say, hey, Saquan Barkley had, what, 2,000 rushing yards two seasons ago. He has 80 rushing yards in two of three games this year. I'd certainly be more pessimistic. He's another one of these guys. The play caller really wants him more involved in the passing game this year. You see it in practice. It's getting a ton of targets.
Starting point is 01:12:58 It doesn't materialize. He has negative receiving yards in two of three games this year. James Cook was like that, not Ty Johnson's running more. routes to him, of course he is. And yeah, it's, it's the running game's a concern. For one thing, the talents are concerned. You know, you had these anonymous coaches, anonymous play callers, GM saying he's a guy who needs it blocked perfectly for him. And I think you saw that when the Eagles had the best offensive line in football in 2024. When it was below average last year, he really struggled. And yeah, so Tank Bigsby might be the better fit. And then, yeah, this isn't a good run blocking
Starting point is 01:13:38 offensive line. It's also like not how they designed the offense. Like we should have seen this coming. He drafted a frail slot wide receiver round one. And then he drafted a past catching only tight end in round two. They want to play a lot of 11 personnel. Dallas Goddard, you know, isn't the best blocking tight end either. So yeah, I think it's right to be bearish on on Saquan, and I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see Teg Biggsby mix in a bit more. You weren't a Mackay-Limon guy? You and I were very anti-Anti-Lemondon.
Starting point is 01:14:15 Yeah, it's true. We're pro-Wix. We like Wix. Yeah. A little too early to Victory Lap that one, but it's looking good for me so far. All right, we're going to get out of here. That's going to do it for week four start sit.
Starting point is 01:14:29 Make sure you leave a reply of your most pressing start-s-s-sit. situation. We'll have our fairy, Fantasy Points Fairy. Matt Donnelly will come give you a response. The Fantasy Points Fairy is going to bless you with a start-sit response. Hopefully, we got like 700 last week, so definitely some people got ignored, but we got a lot of them. All right, guys, that's going to do it for us today. Thank you for sticking with us. We will be back on Monday morning with our week for recap. We are out. In communities across Canada, hourly Amazon employees, earn an average of over $26 an hour. Employees also have the opportunity to grow their skills and their paycheck
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