Fantasy Football Daily - What Teams can be Playoff Spoilers? | Take Talk Podcast

Episode Date: December 27, 2023

In a special three-man Take Talk booth, Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield), Steve O'Rourke (@callmesteveo7), and Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) review some of the biggest games from Week 16 and highlight a favorite playoff sleeper in each conference. SIGN UP FOR FANTASY POINTS IN 2024 AT OUR EARLY-BIRD RATE, INCLUDING OUR NEW ALL-IN PACKAGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I am your host, Brett Whitefield. My usual co-Cose, Stephen O'Rourke, is here on vacation, live from vacation. and then we got a guest today joining us, Chris Weck, the usual guest. Guys, how was your Christmas? It was good. It was very busy, of course, with all the games going on. But, you know, it was good. Christmas is still a great day of the year regardless.

And, yeah. So we're all established men of stature here, but do you guys still get Christmas gifts from your parents? Yes. It's cool. I do not. my dad were worth past that. See, I have four kids, though. Yeah, you have four kids.

I've burdened him quite a bit with people to buy gifts for, which is cool. But my mother-in-law, so my wife's mom, they still get me gifts. It's kind of crazy. I got like, I got a meter. I got a couple cool utensils for the kitchen, basically. And then like, a hundred bucks cash. And I'm like, she's like, you need to buy something for yourself. You wouldn't buy for yourself because she knows I won't.

So, right. Okay. Cool. 100 bucks cash and some some kitchens. It's really nice, though. I can't believe I'm 36 years old and my in-laws are still buying me Christmas gifts. Yeah, that's very nice. And now you'll have one less, whatever bill of your choosing won't cost as much.

She made me promise I wouldn't spend it on a bill. So I think my wife got me money for like a tattoo. So I think I'm just going to throw the hundred bucks in the fund to get a new tattoo on a while. And I need to get like my left arm finished. So there you. I like that. Yeah, we got a record player from my parents. Oh, nice.

Which is a phone. Like a modern one. Yeah. Yeah. So it's cool. It's fun. But yeah, we still do guests, but like same thing. Like we don't have any kids.

So. Yeah. You know, they still get gifts for us. But I think that it's probably going to the wayside here quickly. Yeah. By the way, guys, like having four kids on Christmas Day. the level of damage that can be done to your house is insane. My wife and I have spent hours cleaning since Christmas,

and it doesn't matter. It's just there is stuff everywhere, and then they get into new toys that haven't opened. It is crazy. Just the clutter and the mess that's going on in the house. It's the way it's supposed to be, though, isn't it? I know. That's like, if it's not, it's like, well, this doesn't feel right?

I'm someone, I don't deal with anxiety at all unless the house is like kind of messy. like I get I get clutter anxiety and it's got to be pretty bad for me to feel it but like I walked out of my bedroom this morning was like oh my god I just spent like three hours yesterday trying to clean this what what is happening right now so anyways for those of you without kids yet listening you have a lot to look forward to when your house gets absolutely nuked on Christmas day yeah you got to open you got to open every gift and play with every toy at least once it's a necessity it's true well what's crazy is we do Christmas Eve with my wife's dad and he like spoiled the kids. So they had a ton of toys and I was making a joke that we should like not give them our gifts on Christmas day and just space them out. You know, like there's no way you can possibly enjoy everything you got in one day. So why don't we just wait to unwrap these like a week or two goes by. You get sick of the toys you just got and then we'll we'll bust them all out. But my wife is not in favor of that idea.

So no. No, you got to like forget what you got and then you're, you know, you're, you're, you know, you're kid, you go back under the tree, like, oh, I forgot I even unwrap this. It's like, it's just like never ending. Yep. All right. Well, let's get into some playoff slash review discussion. We are in the final hours of the NFL season, week 17 coming up. And this is a big one for a lot of teams. Let's go far. Guys, we still only have what, five teams that have clinched playoff spots. No, we're at six now. Two in the AFC and four in the NFC and four in the NACs. NFC. So in the AFC, you got Ravens and the Dolphins and the NFC. We got the 49ers, Eagles,

Lions, Cowboys, which is funny because those have been the four top teams kind of competing for that one seed the whole year. But it's still pretty open. There's still a lot of races to be won here. Yeah, I don't know. Let's dive in. I don't know where we should start. You just want to start with reviewing some games and then talking about playoff implications from there. Yeah. I mean, there was a pretty, there was one really big game. This past week that basically shifted, I think, the entire NFL landscape on its head. You talking Baltimore 49ers? Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah, let's talk about fraud purdy in the 49ers, and we'll just go from there. So the Baltimore Ravens traveled to San Francisco on Christmas Day to take out the San Francisco 49ers of score 33 to 19. This was a shalacking, too. The score wasn't even that close. No. I should say the game wasn't even that close.

Actually, did Sam Darnold put up more points than Purdy? He was even, I think, right? Yeah, because they scored the one touchdown, and then if... They both got a touchdown. It was close. Pretty put up 10, Donald put up 7. The fact we're even having the debate is concerning for Purdy. Yeah, Purdy, Purdy turnover regression.

smashed in the face like it did, I don't know, eight games ago or whatever. He had four picks in this game, got sacked a couple times. Just the decision making was not good. I know not every pick he threw was his fault, but he had three or four turnover really throws in this game that were just of the bad variety. Some were not picked off even. They could have been worse. Right.

Yeah. Some were not picked off for sure. What were your guys' main takeaways from this game? It was, I mean, it honestly kind of went the way that. that I thought. I mean, I thought that the Ravens defense was going to muck things up and make Purdy really drop back and read a defense.

And it kind of had him in shambles. I mean, oh, it just like you could see that if his first read wasn't open, he kind of got lost. And it just, that's where it just started going haywire for him. I mean,

yeah, it's credit to the, to the Ravens defense as a whole and the guys that they have. but yeah, they made pretty work for it, and he didn't do anything with it. Yeah, we talked about it last week. This was, we were both pretty much in agreement that we thought the Ravens would be able to move the ball on the Niners, maybe not to the degree that they did and how they did. But that we were both in agreement.

We both said the game would be decided on would Purdy, what would the Ravens defense do to Purdy? And it basically, like Brett said, the regression just hit him really hard. and things just went off the rails quickly. Purdy very much seems like a guy that when things are going good, they like continue to get better. Like he's a snowball QB. When things trend in whatever direction that they're going and they just keep rolling that way.

Yeah, so the Ravens came out and they played a ton of two high coverages, like a ton. Some exotic looks in there too, some disguises. I thought it was interesting though. Those safeties basically were squatting on all of that deep stuff. The 49ers do. all of those pose, the corners, the seams, the overs, like they had, they had safeties ready to go on all of that stuff and kind of just shut it down,

which, you know, when you have the athletes to play against the 49ers athletes, I think it sounds simple, but it was easy to take them away. And Purdy just kind of looked like he was in shambles. But man, some of those exotic coverage looks that the Ravens presented Purdy. It just really confused him. I mean, just made him pause, hold the ball a little longer. How do you think this game affects his MVP status? I mean, is he officially off the ballot?

Oh, yeah. His odds were dropping during the game, like just more and more and more. I think I think Lamar is now the clear favorite. And Purdy is now, let's see. Yeah, he's got to be around like plus 400-ish would be my guess. And I don't see how he could possibly win now. Um, when you guys talked, uh, MVP last week, wasn't Lamar my number one? He was, wasn't he?

Yeah. Yes. Yeah. So Lamar was my number one going into the week. Purdy was my number five. And now Purdy is definitely off the ballot. He's, yeah, he's behind Tua in the market right now. Good.

And it should have been that way already, to be honest. But the thing about Purdy is when, when that, uh, turnover regression hits, he's cost him, his team games. So like, yeah. So when you have the debate of like what makes a truly premium quarterback, it's like we've talked about a lot, but it's guys you can win because of. So when everything's not going right, do you have a quarterback that can lift your team up and win games? Purdy's never really been that guy to me, not even close. And in fact, he's gone the opposite way two or three times this year where they've literally lost because of him for no other reason than Purdy just couldn't get the job done or cost a team with turnovers. I think that's concerning to me.

And if you're a quarterback that's cost your team multiple games, I don't think you can. be an MVP. Yeah. I heard someone say this the other day, and I think it's really a really great tape. The award needs to really change from most valuable player to most outstanding player of that season, because we all get wrapped up in like, all right, well, you know, Mahomes would still be the first pick off of if you reset all the teams every single time. So if you, and I think that clouds, a guy like Purdy, I could see him winning a most

outstanding player of the year award. because he could have a really good season in that offense and all the weapons he has. But if the ward is most valuable player, I don't see how he could ever win it, barring him continuing to really grow as a pastor, which he's done, but it has to happen a lot more for him to, like you just see what Lamar is doing this year.

I know the numbers aren't gaudy or super big, but you can tell this is one of the best Ravens' offenses he's ever played in. they are he's more methodical with how he's approaching he always looks like he knows what what needs to happen on every play never looks frazzled he i mean yeah i think he's by far playing the best football of all the of all the cubies this year right now yeah and it's it's like going off the cliche but like you can tell that in this offense with the new munkin and then obviously they still have a little bit of the flavor of gregg roman's offense in there like the game is slowing down has like officially slowed down for Lamar where he looks confident he's scrambling with a purpose

it's not just it's not just like immediate like first reads gone pressure gone he's starting to get outside the pocket and look down field and it's run at the last resort or run when he sees when he sees open space and that's where i think that he's become like that like the most valuable player is that that decision making of he's providing like positive plays almost no matter what he's doing you know, like he, for a while there, he'd get kind of lost and am I going to scramble? I look down in field and that's where he used to have like fumble issues and he'd get into some of some interception issues and like that used to be when he was, you know, in the early years, but now you can tell that he's all, he has a plan with every snap.

There's a game plan of where he's going to go and what he's going to do. And it's circling like with that most valuable player, like that's where you get into the of like, well, shouldn't we give Patrick Mahomes because the chief's off, the chief's team would be an absolute disaster on offense if they didn't have Mahomes. And it's like that whole debate of, well, if you take this player away. And I do agree that like it should just be the most outstanding player that year. Because the most valuable is such a, it's just such a different discussion. And it's hard to measure as well.

The best performer of that year. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So this game was fun for me because, EPA bros down bad, you know? So I love that. I think we should have a little discussion about the EPA stat that some of these analytics nerds, sorry Chris, throw out there. But EPA expected points added as the stat. And Brock Purdy's been basically like doubling up everybody this year. And people keep wielding the stat as some type of individual player stat. And I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it.

EPA is a team stat to me. It cannot be yielded as a player stat. Anytime, you know, I hate the way it's phrased to, like Brock Purdy leads the league in EPA per dropback. No, he does not. The San Francisco 49ers lead the league in EPA per dropback when Brock Purdy's at quarterback. It's a total team stat. If Trent Williams doesn't block his ass off on that play, Brock Purdy's EPA can't go up.

Like, it's so frustrating. And then when you see tweets like we got today with, was it the rushing EPA, Chris? This was funny. Yes. So Matt, without naming names, one of the community's big analytics guys is always making these EPA arguments. And in that argument, it was revealed that Matt Stafford has the second highest rushing EPA in the NFL. And Lamar Jackson's like down at like 10 or something. it just shows you how stupid it is

because what EPA doesn't account for is basically how what you do affects the defense you're playing. So Lamar may be not super efficient running the ball this year, but it doesn't account for the fact that some of those wide open seam balls he hits to Mark Andrews and Zayflowers

and Isaiah likely, they're there because Lamar can run the football. And there's just little, there's basically all the nuance in X's and O's to football can't be accounted for with an EPA stat. So I just think it's complete garbage. Yeah, we just, we've seen, we've seen literally in this exact offense,

Jimmy Garoppolo being near the top of the list year after year. And nobody ever considered that Jimmy Garoppolo should be MVP. The NFL market doesn't think he's an MVP caliber QB. He's never signed a big deal anywhere. Like, I know, yeah, I'm the most analytics guy on this thing. But even I would agree that you, you can't just take one thing. and say that is the gospel. It has to be blended with everything else.

There's constantly, we have no problem doing it when, you know, Devon A-Chain rips off, you know, yards per carry of like 15 for, we have no problem saying, yeah, well,

that's probably not sustainable. And probably not, doesn't mean he's the greatest running back of the, in the NFL right now. Yeah. It seems like with EPA, we,

the community as a whole has a hard time realizing that that is not just, the players doing and not a team stat like you said yeah it would be different too if you had um maybe like an eight game sample of sam darnald and then an eight game of brock purdy and the EPA per dropback with purdy was you know whatever point three nine and then sam darnell's like point one three you could then say wow this is a measurable stat here where brock purdy's adding this much value to their past game but we don't we don't really have that with with the mvp caliber discussion because if you're an MVP candidate, you've likely played all or most of the games.

So it's just not, there's no way to like really dissect it on that level. Sam Narnel did come in and throw a touchdown right away. He did. He did do that. It's almost like if you drop any quarterback into that offense. And if anything, if anything for the 49ers, EPA for their offense is a Kyle Shanahan stat. Oh, 100%. Kyle Shanahan's the true EPA bro of that, of that team.

because of the players he's acquired and because of the situations that he puts him in the way he's able to isolate players. If you want to give an award to the Niners, give Kyle Shanahan coach of the year. That makes way more sense than Brock Purdy for MVP. Agree. All right, so what does this mean?

So the Ravens, to me, they're the cream of the crop in the AFC, right? Other than maybe a surging buffalo here down the stretch. Is there a team that's really scary in the AFC other than the Ravens and the Bills? Miami is interesting. I think their defense is really starting to come on recently. The problem is their O-line is just constantly in shambles that I think that is probably going to bite them at some point.

Tyreek is also, I don't think he's super banged up, but he's definitely a little limited. He's been a little quiet in recent weeks since he got rolled up on. And we know like Tyreek is also an MVP candidate. And if he's not full go, that's going to that's going to derail them at some point. as well. And Waddle can't seem to ever stay healthy. So they're a little banged up right now. At full strength, I think Miami is definitely in contention there as well. But right now, I think the Ravens are in a tier of their own. Yeah, I think Miami's for sure good. I'm in the playoffs, anything can happen. I just, yeah, I think the O-line stuff really concerns me. But,

um, yeah, I think Baltimore's a tier above them right now. I'd probably put Buffalo and Miami on the same bucket though. I think that's fair. Yeah. And they have, I mean, they have a big game to finish the season that arguably could, you know,

could be a preview of what we're going to see in the playoffs. Because I mean, Buffalo took it to Miami already this season. And so it'll be interesting to see if Miami has something to play for, which they should, probably like a home field, home field advantage in the first round. I think that that it will be an interesting game to see where Miami's

defense is against the bills this time around and how Miami's offense, you know, is able to hit hit their stride against the bill. So I think that's a big game coming down the stretch to see, like, to kind of gauge where both those teams are heading into the playoffs. But I think it is the, it's the Ravens pretty much head and shoulders above, you know, everyone. And the games that they lost this year, you know, they were kind of, almost all of them were kind of fluky. I mean, they lost an overtime to the Colts. They lost to the Steelers in a game where their receivers dropped. I think it was like eight passes.

And they definitively should have won that game by about 20 points. So like they've every game that has kind of mattered towards the end of this, they've really gone out and taken it to quite a few teams. And you're not really seeing that from a lot of teams as much this season outside of like the 49ers doing it to the Cowboys. but you're not really seeing a lot of teams really go out and beat handily a lot of winning teams with winning records. Yeah, I would say other than the Ravens, maybe this is why they're the clear cream of the crop to me. Other than the Ravens, every other playoff team or contender has had a really rough stretch of football this year.

49ers lost three in a row earlier in the year. They did not look good against the Ravens. The Eagles are in the middle of their, I would say, their bad stretch. so they're looking to get right. The lions, I mean, shoot, there's games with that defense makes me want to throw myself off a bridge. I mean, the Cowboys have at times looked super fraudulent all year long, and when they don't get in a positive game script, they're really easy to beat, it seems like. Yeah.

I mean, we can go down the line. The Chiefs obviously have their issues. Like, every one of these teams, though, has had really, really weird stretches of football, where it's just like, oh, oh. Yeah, usually there's like two or three teams that have kind of had Ravens-type. seasons where yeah they've got a loss here and there but you never there's never a stretch where you're like man I don't I don't know what to believe anymore this year there's everyone besides them has had those stretches it's weird because it's been so strange that each fan base of these teams feel like that

stretch of games was disqualifying I shouldn't say in aggregate like I think a lot of 49ers fans still think they're the best team but there's a lot of 49ers fans who are really nervous because this team can get run on because when you have offensive tackle that can pass protect. You can throw on them as well. And, you know, I've seen a lot of Eagles fans that are really concerned about the Eagles. Obviously, they're in the middle of their rough stretch right now.

Lions fans, there's, Steve, there's what? Like, 80% of Lions fans still think they stink? Like, I mean, they're really happy about the results, but they're like, you listen to local radio. I mean, like, oh, my God, they think this team is terrible. Go ahead, Steve. Oh, there's still a faction of people that want to go after Aaron Glenn. Like, that's, you know, I think if you asked probably,

50 Lions fans, at least half of them would say that Aaron Glenn needs to be fired and we need to bring in a new defensive court, or they need to bring in a new defensive coordinator and have, you know, someone else take over because, you know,

the defense has looked so bad at times. I mean, there's no other way to put it. They've just looked bad at times and they can get thrown on. They can not so much run on, but it doesn't matter because teams can throw on them. So they don't even have to get into run game to worry to, you know, move the ball against the lions. It's just each team,

each contender is like deeply flawed in their own special way and that's what that's what i think that's what made this season so interesting is that you never know when that flaw is going to rear its ugly head in a game like this week was probably a foot and it's probably a 49ers fan's worst nightmare like this is the culmination of everything that you were that you that you would like had the fears of for this team brock pretty turnover aggressing pass rush not getting home the fact that they do have primarily pass rushers on that defensive line. And if a team can get into a script where they can run the ball on them, it doesn't matter. They don't have to even really drop back because Hargrave's not good in the middle against the run.

And Chase Young's not the best run defender. Nick Bosa is probably a plus run defender, but that's about it. You just run away from Bosa. And you know, you can you can get yourself in a good game script where you're kind of taking control getting into second and five, third and one situation. right on yeah I totally agree so I want to get into one more game really quick and then I have two other teams I want to break down and get your feedback on some surprising teams but first I wanted to do Detroit Minnesota really quick this was a a game kind of like an emotional ending for me because of the Detroit ties obviously they had not won a division championship since I was four years old which is kind of crazy to think about um it's actually really, or sorry, I was five years old. That's really crazy to think about. But this game was for the division.

Detroit wins. This offense, like everyone was really nervous about how this offense would respond to Brian Flores' defense and this offense responded beautifully. They were super methodical the entire day. They only had, what, one explosive pass play in this game. And they still just moved the ball at will against the Vikings. It was impressive. And on the flip side, guys, I really felt like there.

defense, even though they gave up 411 passing cards, their defense was actually really good in this game, minus a couple just circus catches from Justin Jefferson. They gave up 17 yards rushing, which is 1.5 yards of carry. I mean, that's actually crazy, right? I really, I came away from this game feeling better about the lions, I think, than most people. What did you guys think? I mean, I still think the defense is a major issue. I've told you guys a million times that I would move on from Aaron Glenn if I know they're not going to do that because they're winning.

But the best thing that could happen to the Lions this offseason is him getting a head coaching job somewhere. John Gain in effect? Although maybe that wasn't such a good idea for you guys. Well, yeah, because the Cardinals are awesome. But yeah, they definitely can stop the run, not. denying that at all. And I know Justin Jefferson does make circus catches, but even if you take some of those out, giving up, let's take, take 100 yards off the board, Nick Mullen still threw for 300 yards. And the Vikings run game has been absolutely terrible all season. So not

shocking that the Lions held them to that. The offense is not a problem at all. I mean, yeah, the Lions offense, I think the biggest thing is as an Eagles fan, the biggest thing I'm afraid of is going to Detroit in the playoffs, more than going to San Francisco. more than going to Dallas. Any of those things would be better than going to Detroit right now, I think, in my eyes. But if there's one, yeah, if there's something that I would still be terrified of, it's that Lions defense just getting torn up by some passing game. Yeah.

Yeah. It's, I mean, yeah, the passing game is on defense is a definitive issue. I think that the surge of iffy Melifonwu is big for this defense, having a guy. that I think that they can trust in the middle of the field and as a safety, I think, has kind of change the defense a little bit. You're seeing them utilize him in the box, a lot of blitzes. Aaron Glenn has really kind of switched up how he's getting pressure with that defense the last few weeks. You can see that he's really making an effort to go away from the straight up four-man rush. And he's sending a lot of, you know, dog blitzes, a lot of like overloading one side and

having a defensive end drop into coverage and sending, you know, two blitzers from that side and overloading it. So he's getting a little bit more methodical and unique with the way he's trying to get pressure. And I think that's helping. But the defense really is predicated on creating turnovers. Like the games where that team creates turnovers, and I know it's that way for most teams, but it seems like it's a very boomer bust for the Lions defense where if they can't create turnovers, that's where teams move the ball on them. They take advantage and try to jump on, you know, being able to get to turnover, get their offense the ball back and let them go. When they can't create turnovers, when they aren't getting pressure, that's where teams are able to

really drop back and pick apart that defense because you're seeing that the talent deficit on defense is still there a little bit for the Lions. And I think that that got glossed over at times in the off season just because the, you know, the ascension of Aidan Hutchinson and the development of Ali McNeil, you were hoping to see, you know, them bringing in Cam Sutton and things like that. We kind of, we as a football community, I think, kind of overlooked that they still didn't have that many dudes on defense. And that shows itself semi-frequently with that defense. Yeah, they've invested way more into the offensive side of the ball.

Brad Holmes has been here. It's actually, I mean, and you see the results of that, right? Great offense, very, very suspect defense. So I guess the big question is, is this Lions team, are they able to compete in an NFC where none of the other contenders can stop the run? San Francisco struggles, Dallas struggles, Philly, for whatever reason, it struggled lately stopping the run early in the year. That wasn't a thing, but now they're giving up a lot.

Can this Lions' offense compete against those guys? Yeah, absolutely they can. Yeah. There's not a team that should feel like the lines are an easy W if they see them in the playoffs for sure. Yeah. Back to the EPA discussion too, guys. I mean, and this is a little tongue in cheek here, but if you really want an EPA bro MVP, it's Frank Ragnow. Look at the splits with Ragnow on the field and when he's off the field.

It's actually insane. EPA per play, yards per play. any efficiency metric you can possibly think of the Lions jump to number one in the NFL when he's on the field in every single category. They dropped to like 30th without him. In certain metrics, yep. It's pretty nuts.

It's pretty nuts. The trenches matter a ton. And the Lions are a team that, at least on the offensive side of the ball, that's their defensive line is just not other than Aiden Hutchinson. And even he can be a little highly variant. You know, some games he's getting pressure all the time. time and other games, it's a little quieter. There's teams literally committing three bodies to blocking him now because they have nobody

else. Right, exactly. So that, yeah, if there's something that you win the trenches, you are going to be a competitive team all the way up to the Super Bowl at the very least. And the lines certainly can do that on the offensive side of the ball. All right. What does this mean for Minnesota? You guys think they got a shot to make the playoffs still?

They're currently sitting at the eighth spot. They play the Packers this week, which could help their chances. if they win? I mean, I guess, but what does it matter? Do you think you're just fodder for whoever they play in the first round if they make it? Yeah, yeah. I mean, they were last year and they were a better team. They weren't that good last year.

They got beat by the Giants. I would, you know, so who are the some of the Seahawks are a better team. The Packers. Rams. Rams are certainly a better team. The Packers are. are probably in that same tier, but I'd probably still be more afraid of the Packers than the Vikings.

Yeah. Does anyone else, any other NFC team? I guess the Falcons are still in, the Bucks are going to win the division. Yeah. Falcons are technically, yeah,

technically still in it. Yeah, I guess I'm more afraid of the Vikings than those teams. But so, so they're, you know, they're going to be, so they'll probably be the seven,

seed at best, right? Because the Rams will be ahead of them then. Yes. Seahawks have a tough game this week. Well, tough-ish against Pittsburgh. I mean, it's not that tough, but they could definitely lose because it's the Seahawks. So if they lose and the Vikings win, I'm pretty sure they leapfrog, right? Yeah, they do. Yeah. So that's what they're, they're fighting with the, yeah, the Seahawks pretty much. I guess the Rams could lose. The Rams play the Giants. They should win that, but they could easily lose to the Niners in week 18. Yeah. And then I don't know how all the tiebreakers work, but that's the path.

There's too many. Yeah. Yeah, they're not a super threatening team. Yeah, the Rams are staring down a situation now where the 49ers actually have to play for something week 18. And so it's going to be a competitive game. If they had beat the Ravens, they were potentially staring down, you know, the 49ers, potentially resting starters, not, you know, who knows what.

But now that game actually matters for the Niners. no the game well yeah it does yeah it 100% does it depends what happens this week but yeah i mean yeah that's assuming that every like lions the eagles and lions would have to win or yeah actually they both have to lose for it not to matter eagles lines are both have to lose yep which definitely possible the lions lose probably not possible the eagles lose but um all right one thing about the lions do you know what the their super bowl odds are right now no and do you do you do you do you know what teams are, I guess you know, they are only 1% ahead of the Cleveland Browns. Okay.

According to the New York Times model right now, behind the chiefs, bills, eagles, cowboys, dolphins, ravens, niners. I think that's, I think that's. Yeah, that's a little much. And how are the, all right, I'm going on a little rant, how are the cowboys still ahead of every team but the dolphins, ravens, and niners? What are we doing here? we we know we have now met like give me one career defining win

Dak Prescott has in his career and there there isn't one there is never a time where you're like man I can't think of one yeah there's no time where you're like wow Dak like he pulled off that big win against that tough opponent and pulled it out in the end it just doesn't do it they're they're completely different teams on the road and at home and they're going to have to go on the road most likely three times in a row to just get to the Super Bowl. And as good as their defense can be, they literally cannot stop the run.

And news flash, the 49ers, the Eagles, the Lions, the Rams, they all run the football. I don't know who, I don't even know who Dallas is beating in the playoffs in round. So they'll get the NFC South winner, which most likely would be the bucks. I think they can definitely beat the box. As it stands right now, right? Yeah. Yeah. Well, they're not going to fall from the five seed.

well yeah i guess i shouldn't say that because they could they could lose out and the rams could win out and i don't know what the tiebreaker would be but that's that's the only only way um that is interesting who do they play in week 18 i don't know they play the commanders all right they're not losing out so they're going to be the five so they're going to get the bucks most likely in round one and they can definitely beat the bucks. That's a good matchup for them too, unfortunately. Yeah, exactly. But then they will go, if they win,

they will go to either the, most likely the Niners, unless another wildcard team wins. And if that happens, then they would go to the Eagles or Lions. And then if they win that one, then they'd go to whichever one they didn't go to in the championship game. Yep. Their easiest matchup won't come outside of the NFC South winner until the Super Bowl. Yeah, and that potentially is a bloodbath of them, too.

Yeah. All right. Lions still have an outside shot to get the one seat, actually. This is probably worth discussing. They kind of control their own destiny here. If they beat Dallas and then beat the Vikings again, they're right in the mix. 49ers would have to lose to the Rams in that week 18 game. But there's a non-zero chance lines wind up the.

the one seed and there's a decent chance they wind up the two seed, Chris. How does that make you feel as an Eagles fan? Like you would have to play through Detroit to get to the NFC championship game. Well, it's not ideal, obviously. I'm going to be actually, I guess, rooting for the Cowboys this week that the Lions actually lose, which doesn't feel good. But I think that, I mean, yeah, because the Eagles would have to lose to the Giants in week 18 for them to not get the division at this point.

So I guess I'm a Cowboys fan this week. Yeah. That doesn't sound fun. But I already told you, I don't want to have to go to Detroit. I don't think any team should want to have to go to Detroit. And but yeah, it's great. I mean, I feel like we were talking a few weeks ago and the Lions were like, oh, yeah, they'll be the three seed.

Like that was pretty much like locked in and nobody considered anything else. And now I'm like, shoot, I need them to lose. Yeah, it's kind of weird how fast that changed. Yeah, I mean, for both the Lions and the Cowboys, it's a pretty pointed game for both teams this week. I think that for the Lions, people are looking for them to, can they beat, you know, a legitimate contender? You know, they obviously beat the Chiefs early in the season.

Yeah, on the road. It's indoors, so that's good for Jared Goff and that offense. But, you know, can their defense stop the Cowboys passing? game. That's, I mean, a huge matchup in that game. And then can the Cowboys even sniff out the run game a little bit for the lines? Because this is a game where you could see Montgomery and Gibbs going over 100 yards and Jared Goff have 25 passing attempts at most and them just trying to control the game on the ground and force DAC to have every drive really mean something. And him have to really go of his way to make plays because I think

the Cowboys run game has been that has had moments of being non-existent at times this year and I think that that's going to probably happen against the Lions. They're very good against the run. So it's just it's, you know, it's a big matchup for both teams as a

measuring stick of what we think of them going into the playoffs. Because I think if the Lions win, you come away from it saying, okay, this is like they're legitimately in the cards for getting to the Super Bowl. the lions get beat up. I think then it's like, okay, they're a fun team that gives teams trouble,

but when it comes down to it, a good team is going to beat them. Yep. All right, let's move on before we sign off for the day here. I want to talk about two teams, two underdogs right now, that I think can make some serious noise. I want your guys take. They are both currently quarterbacked by the last two remaining gunslingers, the old school QB.

We're talking the Los Angeles Rams, Matthew Stafford-led offense, and the Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns. Let's freaking go to gunslingers. This type of quarterback no longer exists in the NFL guys. They're the last two remaining. But both these teams are scary with Stafford playing the way he is and with Flacco apparently, apparently the issue in New York last year is what just the offensive line was that bad?

He couldn't, I mean, Cleveland O'Lines giving him time and he is just dicing up teams. Like what is going on here? Give me your thoughts on both of these teams. Start with you, Steve. The Rams, I think, are legitimately scary. I think that the offense is humming. I think Stafford looks the best he's looked since their Super Bowl season.

And it's a product of him having a productive run game. I think that that's a huge benefit to that offense. And I think that it's a big benefit. one of those things where we're, we as football fans were so deprived of ever seeing Stafford with a run game that now you're seeing it and how efficiently an offense with him dropping back to pass while also having a semi-potent run game is legitimately scary. I think they can put up points on anybody.

They just put it. I mean, they just hung 31 on the Ravens. And I think that that's probably the most points the Ravens have given up all year. And so they're legitimately scary. the Browns, Joe Flack was a revelation. He had an 11.5 a dot on Sunday. And I mean, granted, he had two picks.

And I think he's had picks in almost every game he's played this year. But he's not afraid to push the ball down the field. And Mari Cooper is legit, is legit. Like him going for over 250. And I think I saw a stat today where 211 of those yards came through the air, which was, I think, the most ever recorded. really yeah for for a receiver like you know obviously getting that many yards but like none of it came through screens or anything which is crazy it was all middle of the field deep down the field and joe flacco clearly trusts marie cooper and he's not afraid to get it to him both of these teams i think can give any team a run for their money the browns specifically because their defense can really turn it on when they want to and they can shut down any offense they've had games where they get by and teams are able to move the ball on them, but that's not that frequent.

Their defense is legitimately scary. I think both of these teams are legitimate upset contenders and could go on a run, you know, akin to, like, you know, when the Steelers won the Super Bowl as a wild card team, as like the seven seed. I think it's a legitimate scenario that you can see because just because of the Brown's defense can shut down anyone and the Rams offense can keep up with anyone. Yeah, the on the Browns, I do think we are seeing a little bit of like the Josh Dobbs effects with Flacko. Like it does, he is throwing picks. I think every game so far that he's played in with them. I do think it's probably going to fall off the rails a little bit at some point. That's probably going to be their ultimate downfall in the end, which I don't think should surprise anyone.

I mean, Joe Flacco was not on an NFL team for a reason. but he by far is the best QB they've had all season. He's playing better than Deshaun Watson was for sure. And Amari Cooper still has games where he can go off. Elijah Moore is still a solid role player. Minjoku has flashed at time. Like they've got enough weapons where if Flacco is having a good game, that the offense can put up points.

And I think Stefansky has proven that he can put a good offensive scheme out there, no matter who's at QB really. I do the Browns defense is definitely good but I don't think it is to the level of this defense can win you a championship team. I mean they've fallen off. Yeah, so the Ravens put up over 30 points on them. The Seahawks put 24. The Rams put 36. The Broncos put 29.

The Jags put 27. Houston just put up 22 with Case Keenum and QB. The Colts put 30 up at eight up on them earlier. in the season. I don't, I don't think this is a type of defense that will be able to sustain. We're going to hold you to 17 points and Joe Flacco is going to help us put up 24 multiple times throughout the playoffs. They definitely could give teams trouble.

They'll be what the, the five or six seat. I guess we don't know yet. So they're going to get a matchup with the chiefs or the dot, no, not the Dolphins or the, the the winner of the AFC South, I guess we don't know yet. Any of those teams could have bad games. The Dolphins would probably be the one that I think they would be most afraid of. I don't know if they could stop that offense.

And I think the Dolphins defense could eat Joe Flacco alive if they're having a good game. So Brown's not so, yeah, definitely threatening for a single game, but I don't think they're championship material. The Rams, Brett, do you remember what you're great on Kyron Williams was coming out of the draft? because I don't think it's that they have a good run game. I think Kyron Williams is just the skeleton key for whatever reason. Day three. It was my great on him.

Some very similar view as Devin Singletary. Thought he had some make you miss potential, but really uninspiring athlete, like all the way around. Like one of the worst athletes to ever come out of the running back position. He's small. Small, bad athlete had no idea. He doesn't look at running the ball.

Like he doesn't mean like a good athlete. He looks at burst. but that's it. Like, yeah. He just great vision, great instincts, good in the past game. Uncanny, make you miss potential for a guy of his size and his athleticism. It's really weird. Yeah.

Besides Todd Gurley and maybe a little bit of Cam Acres, like this offense has looked by far the best when he's been available to them. When he's not, the offense just, it's crazy. I don't think I've ever seen a running back and not, and the one that isn't like a Christian McCaffrey. especially that totally derails an offense if he's not available. Yeah, it is kind of wild. As far as the Browns go, how much do you think Amari Cooper likes Joe Flacco?

He's had 37 targets the last three games since Flacco took over as a starter. His stat lines before that game were 34 yards, 16 yards, 34 yards, and then now he's been averaging like 145 yards a game since Flacco took over. It's crazy when we see this like the backup Q's. be young or old comes in and just throws to best player and you see success. And then it happened with Jefferson and Mullins in the Vikings game. They were getting their teeth kicked in the first half. And then they came out the second half.

They're like, maybe we should throw it to Justin Jefferson. This is a good idea. And Mullins just started chucking yolo balls. And ultimately it cost him, right? Because he ended up throwing a bunch of picks in the fourth quarter. But I mean, they got back into the game by throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson. It's a high variant way to win a game. but when you have a much lesser QB,

it's probably your best shot to win a game. Just throw the ball up to your best player and hope that the ball lands in his hands and not the defenders. Yep. And Cooper's having a career year, by far, by the way. He's already surpassed his yardage total. His yards per catch is two point, or two and a half yards higher than he's ever put up before.

His age 30 season or whatever, age 29 season. That's kind of crazy to think about. He's wrecking stuff this year. And he did it on the road. With the Browns, every game they've lost except for the Rams game, their quarterback didn't throw for 200 yards. Every single game they lost. So I feel better about the defense solely because they're not on the field as much

when Joe Flacko was at quarterback. They still did give up to, they still did give up 27 of the Jaguars. I still gave up 36 to the Rams when Joe Flacco was in. But you can see that there are another defense that is just kind of, I mean, it's a Jim Schwartz stable of like just create chaos and turnovers will come from that and, you know, eventually it will wear a team down. And that defensive strategy can give up a lot of points,

but it gives up a lot of points when your offense is going three and out all the time. And that part has changed with Joe Flacco. the offense can actually maintain drives and stay on the field and the defense actually gets a chance to rest a little bit. I mean, in a lot of the games that they lost earlier the year, it felt like the defense was, A, putting up the points for the team, and B, they were on the field constantly. So with Joe, with Joe Flacko, a quarterback, they at least have a chance where it's not solely reliant on the defense to make every single play. They can actually rely on the offense to go and put up points. and the defense can be a little bit more risky and try and go for turnovers

and really get after the passer and things like that. And so I think that that Joe Flacco being a quarterback changes the dynamic of that team quite a bit. Yep. That's fair. Also, Miles Garrett had like a four or five week stretch where he was pretty severely hurt

and he's playing through it. I think he may have missed a game, but he's back fully healthy and he looks really good. Like he completely dominated against Jacksonville, completely dominated against Shacksonville, Chicago. Didn't have a sack this week, but he had multiple tackles for a loss. Like he was a problem in the whole game. So I think if he's healthy, that defense does kind of trend back in the right direction. Denzel Ward also back this week, I think. So that's for them. As far as the Rams go, guys, my last point on the Rams is I think a lot of people are judging them based on their eight and seven record and forget the fact that Matt Stafford missed two games. He was injured beyond those two games, right? he had the bad back, which, you know, flared up on him. We know Stafford does not play well when he's hurt.

I'm just saying all that to say, like, it's possible this team is better than their record. If they get, both those games, they didn't have Stafford. They lost to Pittsburgh and Dallas, right? No, he played in those games. Sorry, what games did he miss? I forget. Anyways, not important. I believe they lost both the games he missed.

So, you know, right there, if you flip those games, that's, there are 10 and 5 teams. I think they're probably better than their 8 and 7 record. So they're definitely scary to me. And I think they have a good shot as any as a wild card to make some noise. Yeah. They're 5 and 1 in their last 6, with their only loss being an overtime loss to the Ravens. There you go.

I think that you don't mind losing to probably. I think so much of it is like we still kind of judge the Rams a little bit based off of last year too. and I think it's forgotten how injured they were last year, how injured they were to start the season, how bad the offensive line had injuries up and down. And now that there's stability on the offensive line, it allows McVeigh to really dig into their run game, which I think is so much of what McVeigh's offense is about.

I think that if you look back to the years when they had early and when they were, you know, Super Bowl contenders, so much of their offense was built off of the, establishing the run and letting Jared Gough playoff of that. He's now, McVeigh is able to get back to that now that they have a solid offensive line now that they're able to run the ball. And you're seeing that that's really who McVeigh is. And, you know, I think a lot of people forgot that that was what McVeigh was all about

just because they did have such a deficit in the run game when they had camakers there. And it was so unproductive and they had to rely so much on the past. You're finally seeing him get back to really ground and pound and then let Stafford to air the ball out off of play action off of that. Yeah, you know what's really helped them too, guys? Offensive line stability. Their offensive line was horrible last year. I know Andrew Whitworth had retired.

They didn't have a good solution at left tackle. Now you've got Kevin Dots and Rob Havenstein are both playing really, really good football. Brian Allen's now been the starter at center for a couple years. Alaric Jackson, one of their middle round draft picks has panned out as a solid offensive tackle. I think that's really helped too because just similar to Jared Gough, when Matthew Stafford doesn't have great offensive line play, and he's just erratic. You just,

he'll have a ton of good games, but a ton of bad games. So I think the, the offensive lines to build. Oh, Steve Avila, what a second or third round pick this year has played. Yeah. Reasonable well for them for a rookie especially.

So I think that's, the offensive line has really helped them out. So anyways, we got to cut it there. Steve, five stats this week? Yes or no? I mean, Chris. Sorry.

Why did I say Steve? Chris, did you put... No, not this week. Not this week. Okay. Well, that's a bummer for our subscribers because that's a great article. That one's free anyways, isn't it? Yeah.

Anyways, one of my favorite articles we do every week because it's short and sweet and to the point and it gives you five bangers that I usually use in every media content I do for the week. So anyways, just trying to make Chris feel bad for not putting it out. But head over to FantasyPoint.com to find all of our cool stuff this week. A lot of great piece. the content coming out. I know Dolan's going to release Matchup Points, which is one of my favorite articles as

well. Data.FantasyPoints.com. You can still get in there. The early bird is going on right now for the all-inclusive package, and I think you're getting a slight discount on data. Don't wait too long, though, because data's going back to full price pretty soon

here, guys. So, like, maybe a week or two, actually. And that's going to cost you a lot more money. So if you go and get it now, you're going to save yourself some money, and you're going to really enjoy the product. You can use it for the last couple weeks of the season. Do your deep dives in the offseason, then you be ready to go for next year. So anyways, that's going to do it for us. I'm Brett Whitefield. This is Stephen O'Rourke and Christopher Wecht, and we are out.

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