Fantasy Football Daily - Where Are the Rookies Going? Early High-Stakes Redraft ADP Breakdown (w/ Alan Seslowsky) 📊

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

On this episode of Fantasy Football Daily, special guest Alan Seslowsky joins the show to break down the earliest redraft ADP for 2025 rookies in high-stakes leagues. Who’s rising too fast? Who’s a sneaky value? And how should fantasy managers attack this rookie class in drafts? 🧠 Key rookie ADP takeaways: Ashton Jeanty going 8th overall 🔥 Omarion Hampton (RB16), TreVeyon Henderson (RB19), and RJ Harvey (RB21) in the top-60 Tet McMillan vs. Travis Hunter — which WR is the better pick at cost? Colston Loveland (TE12) and Tyler Warren (TE8) as viable TE targets Late-round rookie flyers: Jaydon Blue, Bhayshul Tuten, Jayden Higgins, and more Whether you're prepping for redraft, best ball, or just monitoring early market trends, this episode gives you the rookie ADP edge you need. 🎧 Subscribe to Fantasy Football Daily for smart, daily insights all offseason long. Where to find us: ⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/TheOGFantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://twitter.com/AlanSeslowsky Join the Discord here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/discord#/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find Our Podcasts here: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/media/podcasts#/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to Fantasy Points for FREE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com/plans#/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Fantasy Points Website - ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠ NEW! Data Suite - ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://data.fantasypoints.com⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter - ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/FantasyPts⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fantasypts⁠⁠⁠⁠ #fantasypoints #nfl #fantasyfootball #dynastyfantasyfootball #FantasyFootballAdvice #dynastypoints #dynasty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Theo Greminger with Fantasy Points, Fantasy Football Daily, joined today by Alan Sisslowski. Second time I've had Alan on this show. So, Alan, you did a few things well, the first show. We're going back at it again. I always love chopping it up with Alan. Like, it seems like we're doing this at least like once a month this time of year on each other's channels.

But, Alan, we actually competed in a draft last night and not a dynasty rookie draft. actual redraft draft. Yeah, I mean, Lindy's Magazine, which is a legacy magazine, they put out a draft of experts every year. And to their credit, they wanted to get a bunch of guys, new school guys in there. It's traditionally been all the heavyweights in that magazine, you know, Matthew Berry's, Andy Barron's.

So they want to mix up, get some new blood in. So they invited us in that magazine, the Lindy's magazine, will be out in the summertime. You can get it at any airport. And you and I, which obviously I dominated that draft over you. So I think, but what's cool is I picked that. one end at the one spot and you picked at the other end, the 12 spot. Yeah, and that was a fun one and we got to write it up. And I sort of, I've liked both ends. I'm actually in a big FFPC draft this Wednesday evening, the Hardway draft, which is always

one of the hardest drafts of the year for me. I've won it twice, but it's a mix of of high stakes players in FFPC with a few industry people, Davis Maddoch, John Daigle's in it, Mike Schope is in it. but there's also like the Go Bills guys that have won the FFPC men event twice, a B bag, Batoba, who took down the $350 tournament twice, Austin Martin took down the postseason tournament, and I've won this league twice. So this is always like a kind of a bragging rights league for me. What's the entry fee?

It's 350, but it's sort of one of those. So they go into the overall, you technically could have a team that could qualify for the overall. I had a team that was like top 100 when I won it. But when you're going against these guys, you're not going to put together like the greatest ever team. It's just that ship sort of sails. It's more of a bragging rights league. And we're sort of, we attempt to set early ADP. So that'll be a lot of fun.

I'm actually going to be joined by John Daigle on this channel to kind of review our draft. So today this is going to be fun, though, Alan. Like you mentioned the draft that we were in. We're not going to specifically look at that board. Instead, we're going to look at some boards that are high entry fee, kind of, of level boards where we're talking about $350 FFPC big gorilla contests. And this is tight end premium,

but we're really going to look at the tight ends in the context of the overall. And we're going to talk about where some of these rookies have settled in. And people are going to say this is way, way, way too early. We have seven drafts in the books. And we talked about this in the pre-show. Like ADP changes over the summer, but not really quite as much as people think.

like we're talking about early May ADP versus end of August. I mean, how different do you think things are going to be specifically when we're talking about like first and second round guys? Yeah, that's not going to change. I mean, the most that could happen is, you know, a player that's being drafted in like the early third round moves into the middle of the second round, like a Brise Hall type, right, Theo? Yeah.

It's pretty clear that the jets are going to ride Breece Hall's wheels off because this is the last year on his school. They're not going to, there's no fifth year option. He was a second round draft pick. and he's basically paying for a contract. And we know what happens was running backs that play next to running quarterback. So someone like that could shoot up the boards. And that's, you know, air quote, shoot up the boards.

But for the most part, the top 24 players, top 30 players are going to be the 30 guys that we all want in fantasy in some order. Yeah, no, I completely agree with you. And we do see some changes like obviously injuries will come into play. Obviously some of these backfields that are like ambiguous or there's a backfield competition. if one player sort of runs away with the job, that player can leapfrog maybe two rounds. But at the end of the day, if you look at underdog NFFC,

FFPC, ADP right now, and then you look at it on August 1st, and you look specifically at like the top 20 players, it's going to be about 18 of the top 20 stay settled in, no matter really what happens. It's just ADP as a way of settling in, and then it creates the sort of group think that follow it as a map and continue to kind of draft

along the lines of it, and specifically like a lot of these big contests like bestball mania or the ffPC 350 the nfc 350s these can influence every day a adp whether it's a yahoo or a sleeper league it's like we sort of like get in these routines where you draft about the same guys every time would you sort of agree with that as well as alan the biggest of the only movers are the rookies right because if cam scadaboo is named the unquestioned giant starter he moves up three rounds right Like that's just how it happened. So rookies are the only piece of this that are volatile.

And rookies, you know, like Ashen Gentie is a top 10 player overall in single quarterback fantasy. He's not moving too much a couple spots up, maybe a couple spots down depending if they signed someone. But yeah, like the mid-round, the late-round rookies, I mean, the best example of that is pre-draft RJ Harvey versus post-draft R.J. Harvey. Pick 124 to pick 64, something like that. So those are the rocket fuel moves.

the nuclear moves that we'll see is only the rookies and the unknowns. Yeah, and when we talk about these like top of the line rookies, we might as well start out with Ashton Genty. We're seeing a similar parallel with Genty as we did with Sequin Barclay and Ezekiel Elliott during their rookie seasons where these guys start out in the first round, but you start seeing people really, really plant their flags and drive these guys up to excessively high ADPs. Right now in the last seven days, now I've updated it.

There's been eight drafts in the books. And a couple of these drafts are slow drafts, so they're not completed. But for the first round, guys, we basically have eight drafts of data. You're seeing Ashton Genti in FFPC settling in at the 108. 107. I just pulled up the gorilla. It's 107 now. It's 107.

107. 7.29. So Genti has steamed up. And specifically when you're looking at Genti, he's now the RB4. So Bejohn, Sequin, and Jemir Gibbs are running backs one through three. Then there's usually a little small gap where Justin Jefferson, C.D. Lamb, go ahead of Genty. But then there's actually a huge tier drop between Genty and the RB5. There's a six-player gap between Genty and then a tier that features Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, and Devon A-chan.

Of those three, Devon A-chan is my favorite back. So this is interesting. Like if you want Gentie, it seems to me, Alan, he's the one that is steaming up towards the top five. And really you're having to make a head-to-head decision between a Jamir Gibbs and an Ashton Genty, between a Justin Jefferson and Ashton Genty. We're basically drafting him like he can average 20 points per game this year and finish as the RB1. Are you this enthusiastic about Gentie? Do you think this is warranted?

I think I'm there. Yeah, normally I'm a rookie hater. You know that. like fade, fade rookies, you're usually going to win. But this is very different when it's a running back with top six,

top five real NFL pedigree. You talked about Zique, right? Even Trent Richardson, who's like the jokeyest joke first round pick, was good his rookie year for fantasy football. These rookie running backs are the best when they start out and then they decline as their career goes on,

opposite of wide receivers who traditionally might need, you know, a year or two just to get to their peak. And then they held a couple of year peak. So Ash and Genty in a serious XM expert's draft, I took him at pick five. I got laughed out of the room, but I said, why are you, this is where it's going anyway, right? Like they're like, oh, how could you take them over Gibbs? I'm like, so where would you take them?

Pick eight, you know, that's how I bit back. So I'm taking him at five, big deal. A lot of credible projections across the industry. I'm short fantasy points, you know, Mike Clay at ESPN. They have Ash and Genty leading the NFL in carries with around 255, sprinkling in 34, he catches. I mean, he's too big to fail. All right, fine. If Bejohn Robinson out produces him, you know, I'll have made the wrong pick. But Ash and Genty, I think is such a high floor player. And the upside is like it's so, you know, we were talking about Lindy's magazine. Isn't it easy

to see right now next year's magazine will have Ashen Genty on the cover? So, yeah, I'm, I think, I think, like, we want to be your head when we're drafting guys. And I think when it comes to Gentie, you can make a legitimate case for him being the 101 in 2026. It's not going to take a whole lot. If he simply scores equally to Bejohn, Jemir Gibbs, Sequan Barclay, he's the one-on-one next to your hands down. And it's interesting you bring up the total number of Kerry's projections. I think that's completely accurate because when you look at Jemir Gibbs, exceptional talent, a player that I love, but he does have David Montgomery in the backfield. We also have the offensive coordinator change. So like Gibbs here is, it's a high pick for Gibbs.

It's one I'm comfortable making, but in terms of backfield competition, it's not even close. The only player of those three that has the lack of backfield competition is really Sequin Barclay. But Barclay has to deal with Jalen Hertz on the tush push goal line. So for me, like Genti, his backup right now is 32 year old Rahim Moster. Like, Mostert is pretty cooked. So let me ask you this. If Gentie does get a backfield mate, like a Nick Chub, would that cool you at all? Or is that, like, good?

You want a basically broken Nick Chub behind him. That's exactly. I mean, obviously what we have right now with Gentie, Rahim Moster and Sir McCormick, that's ideal. But if they add Cam Acres, if they add Nick Chub, would that change anything for you? That's the real question here. No, not at all.

I think that the only thing that could really change things for Ashton Genty and his projections, for me, if we're going to bet on him to finish as the RB1 overall, then your 30, 40 catches has to go up. The RB1 overall, not last year with Barkley. not in the Jonathan Taylor year, but most years the RB one overall, you're talking about 60 catches or more. Gentiles doesn't have to do that, but he's got to get you about 50 catches. Or like 20 touchdowns, one of the other.

Or 20 touchdowns also does the trick. But end of the day, I want to see him used as a receiver because I think he's very good in that role. And when you look at Vegas, Bowers, Jacoby Myers, Jack Betch, it's not like there is a Devante Adams there at the wide receiver spot. that's going to be 150 target guy. So Bowers would be a safe bet to lead tight ends in targets this year, probably him or McBride leading in targets.

So after that, like there's going to be room for Gentry to get some work as a receiver. For me, that's the only, like if they added like Austin Echler gets cut, ends up there as like the backup. And that's a, Echler rolls out of bed, gets just, get just 40 passes. Like, Theo, let me ask you this. So I think you and I have talked about this catch thing. So if a college running back gets 20 reception.

in a season. To me, I know they can catch the ball. Like, that's my benchmark. You know these college stats backwards and forward. You study this stuff like it, like it's, you know, like it's the law. Do you realize that Ash, well, Ashton Jente had 23 catches in his 24 seasons. Do you know how many catches he had in the 23 season, receptions? I believe he was at like 39. 43. I mean, that's right there. Right. And then you could say, oh, his catches went down, but his yardage doubled. And they didn't need to, and it's, it was simple as they didn't need to utilize like that. But he was extremely efficient as a receiver. He had a ton of games with multi-catch games in that that 2023 season as well where he had like multiple games of like five

catchers or more. He's a he's a flawless prospect and a great one. So we're both giving you the go ahead, the green light. Go ahead and get yourself some Ashton Genti when he's available like the 101. You're going to have to take him before that. Let's say you draw the 105 and you want him. Would you be okay if someone took him ahead of Bejohn? So Bejohn's probably the one where I would be a little uncomfortable pushing them up because I think Atlanta is going to take a big step forward. And Bejon also is a sure thing for receptions. They really utilized him in that role last year under Zach Robinson.

Year two is Zach Robinson. Year three for Bejohn. Like, Bejon would be the one where I wouldn't really want to push him ahead. But when it comes to Sequin, I always got a little bit of ageist in me, Alan, a little bit of ageist. And we also see regression from the RB1 over. overall. RB1 overall, it's a very difficult position to repeat, very, very difficult. Injuries happen, regression happens. I love Sequin. I think Sequin's great, but I think he's being drafted like nine, ten spots ahead of where he was last year. Gibbs and Bejohn, I mean,

Gibbs and Gensi, that's a conversation we sort of just had. So I guess I'm comfortable drafting Genty inside of the top half of the first round. And I think he's a very high upside pick. So I want some exposure to him. If I'm drafting several teams, I want to make sure have at least some gentie, because in an overall contest, I think he could really, really deliver. We're going to take a quick break. We come back. We're talking about the other running backs, as well as Tet McMillan and Travis Hunter. See you after this. Welcome back, Fantasy Football Daily, Theo Greminger with Alan Soslowski. Alan, what do you drop in? What's your podcast schedule and everything you've got going on at Rotowire this time of year? I do a Rotowire dynasty podcast.

which you've been on many times, are going to have you back. That usually is a live stream on the Rotowire YouTube page every Friday, 10.30 a.m. But it can be viewed, listen to any time on repeat. That's what we're doing right now.

I believe we set an all-time views record for that show last year. So maybe we're going to look to do that again, this off season. Always love coming and chopping up with you. Big shout out to Jim Coventry as well. I podcasted with him a lot. Rota Wire, you guys are really doing some awesome stuff over there.

Let's keep this conversation going. dealer's choice, Alan, you want to stay at the running back or do you want to talk about these top end wide receivers? No, I mean, you know, we have to have an Omerian Hampton conversation. I mean, that's, you know, we've never, this is where he goes in drafts, Theo. This is usually where rookie running backs, even in first round go. That's why the Genty thing versus Hampton is a very interesting conversation for people that won in on rookies. Okay, so let's talk about it.

O'Marian Hampton is settled in and a big shout out to fantasy mojo, Darren Armani. The site fantasy mojo is probably the industry's leader in great ADP information. It's specific on FFPC drafts, but if you're in any sort of high stakes or competitive league, there's going to be some stuff over Fantasy Mojo that really helps you out. So big shout out to Darren Armani for letting us access this data for this show. So Armine Hampton has settled in at 37 overall. And we're not really going to talk about our picks from the draft that we did yesterday. But spoiler alert, I drafted Hampton.

Yeah, where'd you got him, though? You could say where you got it. Right about the same spot as he's going in FFPC. So I was at the... 36. Yeah, 36 or 37. I took him right there. So like Hampton, to me at this range in the draft is money.

This is like when we're talking about Hampton, you're talking about a guy that had back-to-back seasons of 1,500 rushing yards with 15 rushing scores at UNC, had the all-time leader in combined yardage at UNC in a single season. He had over 2,000 this past, season. And he's got the size. He's got the athleticism. And now he's got this excessive draft capital. It's the, we've seen LA kind of draft running backs in the first round several times. It was Lidney and Tomlinson, Melvin Gordon, Ryan Matthews, but they haven't done it for 10 years.

And they do it in year two of Jim Harbaugh. And the thing that I think is interesting, Alan, is last year, L.A. was 11th overall in rush attempts. And they were doing that with like J.K. Dobbins, had basically had a kind of a bounce back season for him, Gus Edwards, like there was a lack of overall running back talent. This offseason, they sort of tell you what they told you what they wanted to do. They went out and signed Najee Harris and then they draft Omar and Hampton. Like Hampton, to me at this range in the draft, if you're swinging for the fences and looking for a guy I can finish top five in running back scoring, I'm all over Hampton in this range. There's some people pushing back on me and they'll say Theo, Najee Harris is there.

Where are you at with Hampton? Is it an optimistic glass half full or is there a pessimist in you that says Naji is going to be a pain in the butt? So this is a draft structure, roster construction question, because let's say he goes pick 36, which is the end of round three. So if you start your draft at the one two turn with two receivers or like you did in that Lindy's draft, you went elite tight end receiver, Hampton is an easy pick there, right? He possesses all the upside to be a top 12 running back of fantasy football right away for all the reasons you described.

But if you split, if you go one and one one receiver and basically you're in one running back, Hampton's a tougher call because what you're passing on at that one-two turn really is there's tier breaks at the receiver position. There's there's proven commodities in Devante Adams and Mike Evans or if you're going for the elite quarterbacks, if that's if your style of drafting, that's who you're basically passing on. Because the end of the day, you pass on like a Lamar Jackson for Marion Hampton

and it like seems like fun because you have Jared Goff like 15 rounds later. But then week one, Lamar comes out and scores 48. You're like, oh, Jesus, Marian Hampton got seven calories. What the hell did I do here? So just real quick, Theo. I don't think that Najee is really an impediment to Hampton.

But I was, I was someone brought us, Scott Connor, our friend over TV fantasy football, brought to my attention that there was a very unique tender put on J.K. Dobbins, and there's a very good chance that he comes back to the Chargers. Now you have Dobbins added to the mix this summer. You have, and then you have the other two backs. That does murky it up a little bit, at least in the month of September.

Yeah, and I think you nailed it with the month of September. And it reminds me a little bit about the Jonathan Taylor situation, where Jonathan Taylor had Marlon Mack around him. And of course, Marlon Mack ended up getting hurt. So this is sort of, it was a moot argument. but there was a lot of arguments for Marlon Mack is going to hold back Jonathan Taylor. This is going to be a not necessarily like a split backfield, but a pain in the pain in the butt backfield where he's going to limit the ceiling, the touch ceiling for Taylor. Again, the ship sailed because Matt got got banged up and Taylor ended up winning you the league.

But if I'm chasing league winning upside, I'm not going to worry so much about the players necessarily around him. because I'm going to believe that I'm right when I'm making this pick when it comes to Hampton and that he's going to nuke the players around him. And when we think about it, this has also been a like Harbaugh at heart, I think is a bell cow running back coach. You talk about Blake Corum at Michigan, his incredible success. And people say, well, that's college. But when when Harbaugh was in San Francisco, that was sort of Frank Gore centric, like 300 carries a year, Frank Gore time. I think that they drafted Hampton. Like the way that, that I think this offseason went for L.A.

is I think that they signed Najee Harris because he was the best available free agent running back. And then when Hampton fell to them, that sort of plan completely shifted. And now they get this younger back with juice. I think at the end of the day, it's going to be Hampton. Maybe the first six weeks are annoying to you

and you're really looking at a kind of an RB2. But I think that this is a guy that when the money is on the line, back half of the season, you're looking at a locked in steady RB1 with top five running back upside. He's also an underrated receiver, Alan. We talk about Amarian Hampton. This is a guy who can catch some passes out of the backfield, really, really talented back and able to absorb volume.

And I don't have to worry about it in L.A. You've got Justin Herbert at quarterback. You've a very strong offensive line. Ladd-McConkie is a wide receiver. They've added Trey Harris. This is an offense that I think is going to have red zone opportunities. And at the end of the day, I think O'Marion Hampton is going to be the one who benefits the most of them. Yeah, I like that you called attention to O'Mareen Hampton's receiving prowess, 38 receptions that last year, well over the 20 to be capable.

I mean, he's a prolific pass catcher, 29 and 2023. So check, check, plus there. And the other piece of this is that you were talking about like Najee Harris. Like, he's exactly who you want if you have a Morian Hampton, right? Now, the downside is Najee Harris doesn't miss games. I don't think he's missed one in his whole career. So he's not like you're going to get that injury upside. I mean, anyone can get hurt at any time.

But Najee obviously understands how to take care of his body and not to take hits. Now, probably that's also related to his low ceiling. And he's not like this elite, elusive guy. But, you know, there's not someone that's going to threaten and push him out of the way. Najee is like basically a better version of Gus. O'Mary Hampton is a way better version than J.K. Dobbins. So they put the blueprint in last year, the Chargers. And now they figured out.

out how to put gasoline on that. Yeah, very reasonable ADP there. You know what this is like? Ashton Genty is almost like the Marvin Harrison pick last year. Like some people are very uncomfortable with it because, and then Malik neighbors, whoever loved the ADP, this is more like the Hampton spot from last year. Yeah, I think that's a great analogy. But Hampton is not the only back we need to discuss. We also saw Trayvion Henderson go off the board inside of the top 40 for New England.

This was a pick that I thought was super exciting, Alan, because we weren't really projecting New England's draft a running back in that range, but they did. And instead of passing on multiple wide receivers that would have been like plug and play guys for them, they go with Henderson, who's a dynamic Jemir Gibbs light type runner,

but he also has big time past catching ability in an offense that needs playmakers. Then you factor in, you've got the mobile quarterback in Drake May who could maybe unlock some of those home run hitting, you know, big play runs for Henderson. Henderson settles in at running back 19. So he's a mid-R-B-2 in this situation.

Interesting ADP for him. Where are you out on him in this sort of elevated ADP? Because just to put it in perspective, you're taking him ahead of Devontas Smith, ahead of Chuba Hubbard, ahead of Cortland Sutton, ahead of Zay Flowers, guys that we can kind of project to be either strong,

wide receiver twos or running back last year who finished as an RB1. he's going very, very close to Joe Mixon and Kenneth Walker. And this is sort of like we talk about 80 peak and shift a little bit. Like if Trayvion Henderson has a really, really strong OTAs or has a really strong coach speak in the next month or so, I think he flips the Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixin, Alvin Kamara, and he settles in at like running back 15. People are chasing the Jemir Gibbs repeat season here. We're seeing it in Dynasty rookie drafts where I'm seeing a lot of trades to move up. to select Henderson, a lot of like pushing through tiers to get Henderson.

And I think it's going to be reflected in best ball and redraft as well. Your thoughts on him. Yeah, Henderson, he was supposed to come out last year and ended up going back to college. So he was pro ready last year for some reason. And not to interrupt you. I had like I did my initial. So at the time, not for fantasy points for player profiler. I did my initial, like initial class rankings thinking Emeka, Bucca and Trayvian

Henderson were coming out. I had Henderson ahead of Jonathan Brooks and ahead of Breeland Allen. in that initial ranking. Like I was really high on him. He ends up going back to school. And I think it was the smart decision because he ends up being the 38th overall pick. Where last year, I think he would have been a day two pick, but I'm not sure he would have been a second rounder. Yeah.

I mean, so he improved his draft stock just by, I mean, that was exactly what his plan was and he executed it. And it seems like he could still get his, even if there's another running back last year at Ohio State. It was quit Sean Junkins. He still shows up to be a dynamic player. So we're not as worried about remandre Stevens being there. If you want to get in on the rookie running back thing and you just don't like the ADP on the other two guys, this is where you should land, right? Whether even if it's a little higher than you're more comfortable this way, if you take him what, the fourth round, fifth round, Theo, you don't have to worry because you already have three guys you feel really good about. And what's good is by all accounts, Travion Henderson is an elite pass blocker for where he's at.

he's not afraid. He's willing to take the contact. So what's the easiest way for guys to get on the field and get a lot of playing time? It's to put your helmet into another guy's chest and be a pass blocker. It seems like that, you know, where some of these other guys, Hampton, we're not sure about September. Henderson, you don't have to take him in the first round like Gentie and you're certainly going to get production right off the bat. It's so much better to be three and one after September than it is one and three. I mean, exaggeration for clarification. but with Henderson, it seems like you're going to get it right away. I wouldn't have a problem if someone took Henderson over Hampton in redraft. 14 picks after Omari and Hampton for Trevion Henderson. So you do get a little bit of a gap there. I think Henderson's the one where he's going to be super interesting to see if this ADP kind of shifts around. So if you're in early drafts, and certainly on Underdog,

I think it's in your best interest to pack some Trayvion Henderson bags now. Like I don't see a situation where Ramandre gains. some value and Henderson loses some value. I think that this is a really interesting play and a way for you to get a lot of high upside. And Alan, a lot of times we talk about like these RB2s who beat their ADP. They do it because they catch a ton of passes and he's got that in his framework. One other thing I think that's interesting is, and you want to get your opinion on this,

when we think about Mike Vrable, if I told you Mike Vrable is going to draft to running back in this draft, you probably would have thought like a shock pick for Gentie at the top or maybe he goes and gets a real bruiser of the back. Judkins. Well, he didn't have the job. Do you think if he would have had the choice he would have taken Judkins over Henderson? No, I think that they were locked in in Henderson because there was a lot of reports saying that Chicago tried to move up to get Henderson to leapfrog New England.

So Chicago knew that New England wanted Henderson. They attempted to trade up. It was just too, the cost was too prohibitive. And then they stood pat and they took burden. And so what I think is interesting is when we think about Vrable, we think about like one of this like former player, ultimate tough guy, true alpha kind of guy, like a Dan Campbell type when you think about Vrable. Vrable had Derek Henry, the ultimate big bell cow. Vrable takes a year off of football, comes back, hires Josh McDaniels. And it seems like him and McDaniels had this player circled.

And it's interesting, does the year away from football make Mike Vrable say, I want to, guy who's like a Jamir Gibbs, like a Devon A-chan, this is the style of football I want to embrace because we've always sort of associated him with, you know, 10 yards and five yards in a cloud of dust when it comes to Derek Henry, give your big back the ball 25 to 30 times and go win the game. It seems like there's maybe a more aggressive, more nuanced offensive approach with the new Mike Frable. Yeah, what by all accounts, though, that Henderson is that Derek Henry, like mentality in a past catching backs body. So if anyone that listens to Bill Simmons podcast will know this story, but supposedly

Mike Vrable gets in there with his guys, right, like with the big lineman, and then has them run into him just to kind of feel what they feel like when they push around. I mean, Bill Simmons told the story about Vrable. And you could see it right now. You can visualize your head. Frable getting in there with the rookies, with Henderson, pushing each other to kind of see how solid they are. If Mike Vrable, and by the way, he didn't take a year off.

I'm laughing at that. He got forced out. It was crazy. Well, yeah, he got forced out, but it was still essentially a sabbatical where he was around Ohio State around. Yeah, so. I wish the Jets would have, I mean, they should have fired Robert Sala, which they did anyway in like week five, whatever it was. The Vrable hiring should have happened the beginning of that year, but that's just bitter jet fan. Yeah, man, I think Henderson is going to be like a prototypical Vrable guy, New England Patriot.

You know, it's, he get the best of both worlds. You get the Jamir Gibbs dynamism, but you get the, you know, the Derek Henry mentality, the guy who loves to stick his helmet and people in pass block. Let's take a quick break. We come back. We're talking about the other running backs. So Trayvion Henderson is not the only running back who is steamed up in ADP. People are very, very enthusiastic about this draft class.

You actually see three more running backs have settled in as RB2s. R.J. Harvey, who had the sort of. to Nuts Landing spot, ends up at RB21, Denver Broncos back, second round pick. Quinn Sean Judkins, who was actually the highest, the number three running back off the board behind only Gentie and Hampton, settles in at running back 22, but he goes at 59 overall.

People are scared of this Cleveland Brown's offense. And then Caleb Johnson, who was a third round pick, has steamed up to running back 24. He's the 68th overall pick. So basically have this group of players going between picks 58 and picks 68. There's three of them. They're all inside of running back two land. Which of these three are you most excited to draft right now?

Harvey, Judkins, or Caleb Johnson? I think Harvey and here's why. You know, most of us that do fantasy work and listen to some of the, you know, the real NFL, like mockers, like the Mel Kiper types and Tom McShay's, I think we all thought Harbour. he was a third, maybe even four, third round running back. The fact that Sean Payton comes up into the second

round there and takes him does not surprise us because we saw this the year before with Bo Nix. Everyone was persuaded that Bo Nix was a second round quarterback. Oh, it's a big reach to take him at 12th overall. So Sean Peyton has now earned the, hey, I'm going to take him around earlier if this is

the guy I want. There is no touch competition that we're really nervous about with McLaughlin in Denver. And now, we like the setup there, the offensive line. We like the lack of options. Basically, the offense is made to be built around Harvey. So even if you didn't like Harvey or thought Harvey is what was not worthy of a second

round pick, this is a Sean Peyton confidence pick for me. So that's why I want him over those other guys. Yeah. And redraft. Redraft. Yeah. Harvey, Harvey at RB21 seems like a really, really strong value. the only other veteran back sort of sandwich between these guys is James Connor,

who was very good last year, but again, you're betting on James Connor, staying healthy again, James Connor at sort of an inflated ADP versus where you've gotten in the last two years, and also James Connor producing just as well, you know, at age 30. When it comes to RJ Harvey, I agree with you. And I think RJ Harvey is actually benefits from Judkins where he was drafted because it's it's creating like a head-to-head for a lot of managers who were way ahead on Quinchon Judkins in the pre-draft process. RJ Harvey's always been sort of a fantasy points guy.

I know that Brett Whitefield had a business RB3 overall heading into the NFL draft. Wow. I had a RB6. Scott Barrett had a RB 5. You talked to people from some other sites. They were like RJ Harvey could be a day three pick. We were always sort of pushing back on that one. So that one we definitely got right.

A big shout at to Brett Whitefield for having him so high. What was it about Harvey that he liked specifically? specifically and at all you guys liked. Just everything. Harvey, like, with the production, the big playability, the receiving ability, Brett saw him as like a really, really complete back and one that was going to be successful right away. And we always sort of thought he would get into round two. But, Alan, we didn't project me to be a Denver Bronco.

So, like, I'll say, RJ Harvey is a Denver Bronco, complete wheels up. This has been a situation where if we just give him the Giovante Williams workload, Javante was top five in targets last year at the running back position. We just didn't notice it because Devante is so mid right now. But RJ Harvey, like in this offense, I think he could end up being a top 15, top maybe even RB1. So he's my favorite of this group. And then you mentioned the backfield competition.

When I look at, when I look at Caleb Johnson, like I love Caleb Johnson. But Jalen Warren has been an RB2 only two seasons ago. He's the veteran there. Like I think Caleb Johnson in the Najee Harris role, makes sense. But is it going to be an exact Najee Harris, 270 carries role for him?

Or is it going to be more like a 225 carries and they use Warren a little bit more creatively? This one, to me, could be a little bit more of an annoying split than some people are projecting. Like, don't get to be wrong. When it comes to watching Caleb Johnson run,

this is one of the best pure runners in the class. It really looks awesome running the football. But a third round picks have sort of let us down a little bit recently at the running back spot. We think last year, Trey Benson, Blake Corum, a lot of these guys don't always fire off

coming out of the third round. I just worry that Caleb Johnson might be a little bit overdraft at this point because he's being drafted like Jalen Warren is going to be way, way, way less of a thing. Am I being extremely pessimistic on this or is this sort of your thoughts on him as well? Caleb seems like he's the most polarizing guy.

Harvey is the easy steenup guy. Caleb is going to have the most, you know, the most split on the, because before the draft, he was as high as like running back too in a lot of popular rankings, has the less than expected combine falls down the rankings and then lands in the nut spot where people, you know when I say the nut spot, but where people wanted to see him just a round later, right? Everyone thought it would be round two. It's round three.

So then he gets vaulted back up. Now, the Steelers offensive line, that's not a top 12 line. So it's either average at best or you can even say a little bit less. Now, I think the bigger problem is if you don't have a quarterback play there to take any pressure off of that run, now, we can't assume Aaron Rogers is going to show up there. So if it's Mason. Well, one interesting, one interesting thing with Caleb Johnson. Caleb Johnson has been working out with Aaron Rogers. Very cool.

I don't know if this is a, like it was kind of a random one, but it's Caleb Johnson's been working out there and Rogers. I don't know, Alan, this is one where I think it's going to be Aaron Rogers. But yeah, you're absolutely right. If it's not Aaron Rogers, then then it's hard. hard to bet on this office in general. Totally. So and Ann Rogers played really well at the end of last year. If it is Rogers, that negates this argument. But if you're drafting today, you said you're doing the guerrilla draw. I don't think you can make that assumption. I think you can like give it a percentage like, hey, 35% 40% chance. But if they're going in to the year with Will Howard

and Mason Rudolph, I think that's just another knock against kill. But his, his price reflects it. You don't have to take him in the fifth round. He's like what, a six or seventh round pick at this Point. Yeah, I mean, he's he's, he's 10 spots behind these guys. So he's going 68 overall. And but if you're just talking about opportunity costs, like Caleb Johnson is sandwiched between Roma Dunzee and Jalen Waddle. And he goes ahead of David Montgomery and Aaron Jones. Now, certainly David Montgomery. Can we sidebar for a second there? Because you just said something. I don't want to skip it. Do you agree with me that Jalen Waddle is like the best value in all fantasy football so far in the first eight rounds? Well, I love the jail. I love Jailen Waddle because we've

seen three out of four years where he was a thousand years. Yeah, I don't want to get two sidetrack. You said his name and I have him every draft except the one last night that we did with Lindy's and I'm pissed because I love that guy at his price. Like six seven times. I'm kidding me. You also could see a potential Tyree kill cut after June 1st. Yeah. And then it would be Jill and Wattle would rise up 15 spots in ADP. I had to sidebar you there just to see if I was seeing it the same way you were back to Caleb Johnson. Go ahead. So let's keep going with the running backs. go a little bit lower here. One backfield, which I'm sure we're going to be talking about a ton.

Certainly this is going to get a lot of attention because it's the New York media, but fantasy managers are also going to have this one circled. One of last year's rookie running back darlings was Tyrone Tracy, a huge ADP win in redraft, also a huge dynasty win. He's settled in as RB30. Cam Scadaboo is directly behind him at RB 32. This is an interesting one, Alan. Scadaboo was a fourth round pick,

but there's a lot to like about the profile. I bring up the fumbles because Tyrone Tracy, I think, was really good last year, but he had five fumbles. Cam Scataboo had one fumble in like 290 carries last year, something absurd. So like Scataboo, I think is a little cleaner with the ball. There's also potential this could be a split. Like to me, this is kind of a mess right now. Where are you at on your lean?

I think I lean Scataboo if I have to pick one or the other. Yeah, I'm going to take Scataboo, but it's also this was the four. fourth round picky's got higher draft pedigree than Tracy had in the fifth round the year before. I mean, you know, fourth, fifth round, who the hell makes, you know, who knows, right? But it seems like Tracy was almost forced into this leadback role just because nothing else was working last year. And the great irony, Theo, was they weren't even using him as a pass catcher that much. And that's what Tracy does best.

So they get Scadaboo, who is a proper lead in a committee, right? big, you know, tough nose runner, goal line prowess. Now they could possibly put Tracy into that Antonio Gibson role. We've always wanted to deceive him, right? With like, you know, receiver converted to running back and have 60 70 receptions, 50, 60 receptions. And this could be a good one too. I don't think there's going to be a wrong answer here.

If things work out the way that Brian Daibble wants, Scataboo will be the guy who has nine touchdowns and Tracy will be the guy who has 58 receptions and they'll both pay off in PPR weeks. Yeah, for me, it's interesting. I think that for me, I want to, by the end of the summer, I'm sure I'll have a little bit more clarity and be able to make a big bet on it. But this is a backfield where I think that there is some hidden value, Alan,

because I think both of these guys, like last year we saw Tracy have the juice. And Scottaboo is a guy who I know you loved in the buildup process. I know Scott Barrett did as well. So Scott was a little bit upset that, you know, he didn't land on day two. But he loved the landing spot. So we're watching. Day two, now it doesn't matter. Like this is the guy Brian Dable wanted.

He got him three picks ahead of round of day two. Why is there a hard line between pick, you know, the third round and the second round? Who knows what the tier break are? If Brian Dable had a pick at the late second round, he might, the late third round, he probably would have taken him there, right?

So at this point, that stuff doesn't matter. In my judgment. There's been some media reports saying that the Giants want to use this sort of like a Jamir Gibbs, David Montgomery split. So that could end up being the case. A split like that, but in a much worse, worse offense. But still an interesting one to see the way those touches are divvied up.

Does Tyrone Tracy take a step forward as a receiver? It's just to me, like Scadaboo is much more well-rounded in terms of his prospect profile. And also we have to think about self-preservation from Ryan Daibel. Like, does Daible want to go committee with his job on the line? Or is it going to be one of these backs that he trusts early on? not so sure which way this goes. We're going to keep an eye on this all offseason, though. Yeah, I just, I hear this narrative, Brian Dable's job on the line.

I don't think his job's on the line. He has like a great parachute with Jackson DART. The minute things go south, if they're two and six, Theo, all they have to do is deploy Jackson DART. They're going to get three games of DART not being able to be like good. But if DART finishes the final four games of the season and looks good, Brian Dable's going to get all of the credit for that. And even if the Giants win six games,

five games and Dart looks good, they're going to want to keep continuity in my judgment with Daible, who's a quarterback whisperer. He's a good quarterback coach by all accounts. And so I think that his job isn't, you know, we've heard this all offseason and it makes a lot of sense why it would be. But drafting Jackson Dart in the 25th, whatever, the 20 something pick, it just gives them a parachute and a soft landing. So I think they'll be there for at least this year and next.

Yeah, absolutely. Very, very interesting one to look at. And then the DART situation, that's a whole other ballgame. Does DART potentially get on the field game one? I don't know. It's interesting. I don't know. It's an interesting one in New York because every time they talk to Dable about this,

Dable points out that Wilson and Winston are also new to his system. So he's kind of giving a little bit of a lifeline to this. It's whatever, any way you want to cut it, it's going to be a circus this summer for New York at that quarterback job. Let's talk about another running back down in your neck of the woods in Jacksonville. talking about Bachel Tutin. And Tutin is actually now the highest drafted Jacksonville Jaguars running back in these early FFPC 350s. He's going in at RB 36, directly behind him is Travis E.TN at RB 37.

And then Tank Bigsby has settled in as RB 45. So they're all really, really close to one another. I think drafters really, really are rooting for Bachel Tutin. We saw it last year with Bucky Irving under Liam. Cohen. Tudin has the elite athleticism. This is a fun backfield to bet on, Alan, because they're all cheap relatively. And we think Jacksonville could take a really big step this year. We're going to talk about Travis Hunter in a minute. But if you had to bet on one of these Jaguars running backs, and you could pick one for your fantasy team, who would it be? I mean, you got to say Tudin here,

right? Like who the hell wants to get in the Trem business if you don't have to, if you're not forced into it? It's like him, Najee Harris, all these guys like the, you know, they've already failed. in a sense where they haven't met expectation, but they've been good enough, right, to have on your team. Now here's the question, right? The easy comparison is Liam Collins' offensive last in Tampa Bay.

Now he's in Jacksonville. Let's try to pair these guys up. We have Tank Biggsby, we have E.N and we have Bachel Tutton. Who's the one-for-one best weekend matches up? Is Tutin the Bucky Irving? Does that make sense? I don't know if it's going to be quite as cut and dry as we have like a, this guy's this guy.

Let's just try. If you have to, is Biggsby the... Well, I think I think the... I think Tutton's... the Irving in that sense because a lot of what pushed Bucky Irving to get more time in the Liam Cohen offense is he values really big plays. Rashad White was a very solid compiler type in 2023,

but yards per carries and also rushing runs over 10 yards, runs over 25 yards. However you have a metric for big plays, Rashad White didn't have it. Bucky Irving was a big play waiting to happen every single time he touched the ball. And if we'll recall, Bucky Irving had that big run the first game of the year where the Tampa Bay crowd was chanting Bucky, Bucky, Bucky, Bucky. It sort of was a slow drip.

You also have the Todd Bowles factor where I think Todd Bowles was the one like Rashad White was sort of his guy. And it took a while to sort of get Bucky Irving, that sort of trust there. Now it's Liam Cohen from the get go. Also James Gladstone, the GM specifically said that they love the big playability from Bachel Tootin. So they are very analytics driven in Jacksonville. And I know every team's using analytics, but they're talking about the 32-year-old GM who gave up the fortune to go get Travis Hunter

to sort of supercharge this offense. Like, I think that they're going to embrace a running back who, they're not as concerned about a guy who can consistently get four yards as a guy who can get you run, run, and then occasionally break off a 40-yarder. Right. And, you know, just going narrative for a second here, you just said the crowd last year was chanting Bucky Bucky, Bucky,

you could easily see that chant being basial, basial, or tootin-tootin, right? Tutin-toot-tun sounds better. Yeah, to-you-can hear it now. Yeah, it's the answer to your original question. I mean, how the hell do you not take basal tootin over any of these guys? Bigsby is just like a waiver-wire pickup when the other two guys are hurt.

You're not drafting him in any leagues. And Travis E.TN, man, he's just like, oh, man, I only have one running back and we're in round eight. All right. He's a guy that's, you know, going to get nine to 14 carries a game or touches a game. So, yeah, I think that's an easy one. Let's take a quick break and we come back. We're talking about the wide receivers and tight ends. Welcome back, Theo Greminger, Alan Sislavski.

We're talked to a lot about the running backs. Let's quickly rip through these wide receivers. Jalen McMillan and Travis Hunter have actually settled into, I think, an appropriate range. I think that there's some value in drafting both of them, though, Alan. When you talk about Ted McMillan coming in at 46 overall, you saw them drafted inside of the top 10, clear wide receiver one, Carolina. He's going off the board as wide receiver 23. I actually have him circled as a big value. I drafted him last night in our draft. So I'm really into him. And then Travis Hunter was actually the second overall pick. They said he's going to play wide receiver predominantly.

And he's checked in as wide receiver number 25. So it's McMillan at 23, Hunter at 25. They're going between picks 46 and picks 53. So sort of at that late fourth, early fifth round ADP. Which of these two are you more excited to pick if you had to pick one? Yeah, I agreed with most of what you said. The one thing I might snap my head back was draft them both. I don't think you should draft both of these guys if you have the opportunity to. I think that, you know, I could look foolish if we're sitting here in Halloween and they're both like in the top eight. But man, I don't want to take that risk. I want to take the risk. I want to pick one. And then obviously I want to have the proven commodity is in my other two

wide receivers if we're starting three wide receivers. I'm going for Hunter here, right? Because he's the one that could easily be knocking on the Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson tier in our long-term keeper in dynasty leagues and certainly be a first-round pick, like has a chance to be the Malik neighbors this year. You know, the reason he's a fourth or fifth-round pick, Theo, is because the market has not caught up with the idea that they are forcing him to be a wide receiver, and then he's going to, you know, sprinkle in on defense.

Like I was talking with Bob Harris the other day of football guys. He was like, well, I'm not sure yet what they're going to do with. I'm like, Bob, you're not sure yet. Like we have and he made a good. And again, I don't think Bob's wrong, but you need to act before the price goes up. You need to buy Bitcoin before it goes, you know, all the way to the moon, right? This is the time to buy Travis Hunter because if there is a, you know, let's say in game one, he goes six for 80 and a touchdown.

There's no trading for him, right? Like, that's it. So this is the cheapest he's ever going to be in his career, Travis Hunter. I think he's, again, too big to fail. Now, McMillan, it's a weird situation because I heard somebody make a great case that Xavier Leggett is going to be the number one receiver. No way. In my mind, right.

Of course, I agree with you. But what if we're wrong, Theo? Like, the guy was a first round pick. I don't agree with it either. But what if we're wrong? I would be shocked if Xavier will get out targets. Like, for me, Ted McMillan is the highest draft. wide receiver in the history of the franchise. And you compare Ted McMillan's college career to

Xavier Liggett, who broke out in like year five at South Carolina as a 23 year old. Like by all mean, Xavier Ligette is an unbelievable athlete, big, big body player. I expect him to improve on his rookie year numbers. But when we look at what Bryce Young's done, he's hyper targeted his number one option continually. Did it with Adam Thielen as a rookie. Did it without him feeling to end last season. Alan, we podcast together. We talked about Adam Thielen last year at the end of the year. Adam Thieland wide receiver one usage and putting up wide receiver two numbers. Like for me, McMillan is terribly underrated right now at this ADP.

I love Hunter like you do. I think both of these guys are. And when we talk about like you say, don't take both of them. I don't know, Alan, because the end of the day, the players that break through ADP, rookies, rookie wide receivers have continually been ADP killers. happened last year. Brian Thomas Jr. Ladd-McConkie, Malik neighbors, all completely crushed their their redraft ADPs the year before it happened. And we've seen it, Alan, where four out of the last five years, you've had a top six score at the wide receiver spot that's been a rookie. And last year,

we had two of them. And we had Ladd-McConkie, who averaged 15 points per game, who didn't even get there. Like, for me, I'm going to bet on Ted McMillan, and I'll take the narrative that he, dominates targets in Carolina. 150 targets, 140 targets is in the wheelhouse. Travis Hunter, you're betting on him being extremely explosive and getting

a high number of touchdowns. Sort of his target ceiling is a little bit limited because of the presence of Brian Thomas Jr. Maybe. Yeah. Right. Maybe. It is, I just, you are a known rookie enthusiast. You study the tape, you look at the data, and I am

a, I take more of a rookie's probably will fail approach, right? So we're coming at this from two different viewpoints. Neither one of them are wrong. I remember a couple of years ago, you and I were having a conversation in a high-stakes draft, and you kind of mocked me for not taking, I can't believe I just lost his name, who's the wide receiver on the Chargers, the rookie from a couple years ago that nobody likes anymore? I can't believe it. Oh, Quentin Johnson. Quentin Johnson, right? Yeah, I cannot believe that. And you mocked me for not taking Quentin Johnson. And we had this same argument. I said, Quentin Johnson, I'm assuming he's going to fail.

you're assuming he's right now forget like the outcome that i i dominated you on that conversation forget that for a second let's let's let back there yeah i just want to for the record i was not a quentin johnson bagholder i think at the time it was a it was an argument for yeah it was it was an argument for taking your wide receiver six and like nfc and swing swing for the fences with it or like an aaron jones type or someone like that right yeah yeah yeah so again outcome i i i crushed it on that argument there theo dominated you this i mean you shamed you in that but no the point is that if you are a rookie enthusiast, there's nothing wrong with Tet McMillan. My thing would say, hey, just take one of these lottery tickets.

Listen, if you hit double lottery tickets, you're going to be the richest man. You can retire tomorrow. But there's also a chance. Like you're passing on, you know, a good proven, Devante Adams, right? Nobody wants Devante. He's 32 years old, but he's in a good spot here. So, you know, I like to balance my risk reward in that range of the draft, the fourth, fifth round. So it's just a play style of how you're going to play fantasy.

So when we start looking for the other wide receiver that was selected inside of round one, and we'll talk about Igbuka in a minute, but Matthew Golden is wide receiver 44, going off the board as pick number 98. Could the market just be really wrong on Golden? Is he going to be a Henry Ruggs? I don't think he is. And I think the market's sort of treating him like he's a Henry Ruggs type in this offense. you know, it's not like the market is enthusiastic for Jaden Reed.

Basically, Matthew Golden is wide receiver 44. Jaden Reed is wide receiver 49. So the basically the whole ADP market is saying Green Bay is not going to have a wide receiver hit, wide receiver three range, where last year we were enthusiastic about both Reed and Christian Watson, certainly. So is this a great opportunity to take a shot on Matthew Golden at this sort of range? even if you're not the biggest golden enthusiast, I think the opportunity might be there. You're going to run into people that argue.

And by the way, correctly so that Green Bay was a run-heavy team. Jordan Love didn't get as many past attempts as they thought they would. But they addressed it, right? Usually they don't have the personnel to handle that. I think Jaden Reed was more of a situational player plus. Then you have, of course, Wicks, who disappointed. And then Romeo Dobbs, he's almost like a poor man's or equal man to Jacobi Myers. This is a good player, not a great player.

They take a first round receiver. So I don't think we can just one to one. This is what they did last year. This is what they're going to do this year. They get you a first round receiver so you can throw more. That's the idea. Jordan Love can do it. So yeah, I mean, the price is right on Golden.

It's not very often. I mean, this is probably where Pearsall would have gone last year had he not been shot in the preseason. So, yeah, I'm very happy to take Golden on teams. It seems like at very minimum, like, he'll be like a high, upside, low floor player at the minimum. But if not, he just might end up being that guy that, you know, we look at like our rookie drafts in our dynasty leagues they are.

And we like, oh, my God, we got this guy at 202. And he's like producing how like Brandon Ayuk produced when he was producing well, something like that. I think you nailed it. And the Packers haven't drafted a wide receiver since 2002. A lot of people push back. Who was it? Who was it?

Was it Joaquin Walker back then? Javan Walker. Javan Walker. Javon Walker played there like two years and then I think there was a contract dispute and he didn't do it. He was good in Green Bay though. But it just it was a team that a lot of people

projected to select a cornerback. And instead they draft wide receiver like I don't know for me. I'm into Matthew Golden. I've sort of been the Matthew Golden Apologist here. It's kind of funny like Scott Barrett doesn't like him. Rich Rebar didn't like him. What don't they like about them? Give me one thing they don't. I mean

I'll say a lot of the a lot of the people that were very analytically based on their rookie takes. We're anti-Golden heading into the draft. Also, if you're betting on the fastest wide receiver in each round, that's been a good bet to make, like betting against the very fast wide receiver in round one. It's been a lot of the fails of cap in there.

Like, if you look at the last 15 years, like, and Scott and Rich, obviously super, super sharp guys. But I've been sort of the taking a glass half full approach with Matthew Golden. I just think about Christian Watson, Pete Christian Watson in the Matliflor offense, how what a game changer he was. And Jaden Reed has never had a 18% target share, let alone a 20% target share. So Jaden Reed's been a guy that we've really like always liked the talent on for his fantasy analysts. But Matt LaFleard views him as just this sort of Swiss Army knife type that he's never really going to lean on.

So you know, like a Debo Samuel type almost. Let's go quickly, a rapid fire to end this. We've got a mecha at Buka as, wide receiver 47, Luther Burden wide receiver 48, then we've got Jaden Higgins wide receiver 51. These guys are all, and Trey Harris wide receiver 54, these

guys are all in sort of a bunch in about that round 10, round 11 range. If you had to bet on having one of these guys, I think in Dynasty, they're all interesting, but in redraft, if you bet on one of them, who would it be, Alan? Well, I could tell you,

I learned yesterday this is a hot take, Theo, so we'll lightning round this, but Abuca and Burden are off my draft board. I'm not taking them. Someone made the case of, go ahead. Do you want to jump in here? No, I'm, I'm, I had exploding because I would, I would assume that you would have liked these guys.

Go ahead and finish your thought. Well, just, I mean, they're completely buried. And I know that in Dynasty, that's not how we play. But, I mean, Chris Godwin, I know he's coming off the injury. Mike Evans, I mean, you know, put a thousand yards in his back pocket and then add in all the other weaponry, the Bucky Irving stuff. It's like, where's the, and Jalen McMillan, they're not just going to throw him off the field. He proved he could play football, right?

Like so where is it happening for for a Bucca and then Burdens in the same situation worse, right? They have a pass catching titan they took ahead of them. They have all the veterans and then Romadunzei, even if Roma Dunezay did what he did last year. If you're betting on burden, you have to bet that Roma Dunezay stays exactly where he was last year. DJ Moore takes a step back. Colston Loveland is kind of a bust and D'Andre Swift doesn't catch passes. That's the case for burden. I mean, a lot of things have to have.

And Caleb has got it better. So I'll say that with Igbuka, I made the case that I like Igbuka as a best ball target right now because the ages of the wide receivers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, older. We already saw Godwin get injured last year. Saw Evans get injured last year. Both of these guys, it's the oldest pair of starting wide receivers in the league and the fact that they drafted Igbuka at 19 overall. I don't know if they do that, Alan. This is a team that is like, again, it's going to take maybe some contingent upside.

Maybe guys get banged up. but I think if Ibuka does get his foot in the door, you reference Jalen McMillan, how good he was in that offense. Like, I think that these two younger Bucks wide receivers, having a little bit of exposure to them is not the worst idea. And certainly in best ball, I think I'm going to really target Igbuka. I think he's going to be very efficient and put up some spike weeks.

But if he gets a foot in the door and one of these guys misses some time, Egbuka could be a like-for-like score, not 19 points per game that Godwin gave you last year, but Egbuka could be a 15 point per game score. in that Godwin role if for some reason Godwin misses time. And if Mike Evans misses time, one thing that I think is interesting, two years ago, we saw Chris Godwin bump outside and his production went way down. When he played last year in the slot under Liam Cohen, the production went way, way up.

Does having McMillan and having Egbuka on the roster make them think that maybe Godwin should bump out? There's a lot of variables for me. Well, that's my thing. You have to twist yourself in a pretzel to get there, right? And then so I know these names are. are names that we hate. Cooper Cup, right? Is a name that nobody. But who's going to have more fantasy points in the first eight weeks of the season?

Cooper Cup, who basically has a clear runway outside of JSN or Abuca, who is the third or fourth wide receiver to start the season. We're not talking about long term. It's a great pick. We love Egbuka, but in fantasy football, where most people quit by week seven, Theo, if they're two and six or week eight, whatever the heck it is. I want fantasy points. I want to be five and two.

four and three. I want to be in a position to make a run. I'm going to pass on a Buka in redraft. Now that can come to bite me. I understand that. But I just don't see how. And burden, forget it. I mean, he's completely buried. If you need to do more than two ifs to get there, it's a bad pick. Okay. So let's specifically look at these guys who landed in wide receiver two situations. Jaden Higgins, Trey Harris, and let's throw Jack Betch.

He's also similar. And let's throw Kyle Williams in there for New England. There's four rookies. These guys are all going in this, like, pretty cheap range, but they're not free. You're talking about having to use an 11th round, 10th round pick on them. Your favorite bet for this year. Yeah, I mean, Trey Harris, right? I mean, I know, yeah, that's the one. He's the one with, like, day one starting job is unique on the roster.

So he would be my favorite. These are the types of ranges I want to take shots on these rookies because, yeah, it's easy to see Jack Betch next year is like, a six-round pick because he has an 80 catch season. So, yeah, any of these guys, Trey Harris would be my favorite because of the setup. And I'll say I like your Trey Harris argument. I like your Jack Betch argument,

but I'm going to say Jaden Higgins. Yeah, it's highest draft capital and also that wide receiver two role in Houston's been money. Lightning round here. Let's just quickly look at the tight ends. The two tight ends were drafted inside the top 15 overall picks. Colson Loveland goes 10 to Chicago. and Tyler Warren goes 14 to Indianapolis.

These guys are not cheap now, Alan. You're talking about inflated price tags. And we're specifically going to be looking at where they land in terms of the overall tight end. So if you're an NFFC drafter, a underdog drafter, this is about where they're going to go. Tyler Warren at tight end eight and Colston Loveland at tight end 12. Are you comfortable taking these players in this sort of really pushed up price tag?

Or is this a reflex? price tag that the market doesn't want to miss out on another Laporta Bauer's situation. So they're going to steam up the rookies. Or is this about where these guys should go? These elite pedigree guys are more likely to be like Trey McBride, Theo, where bad year one, probably a nice leap in year two. So I'm going to be out on those guys. My tight end strategy for redraft for FFPC is get Bowers. If I can't get Bowers, let me find Janu Smith in the fourth, the sixth round. I don't know where he goes in FFPC. Yeah, and it's interesting. So I really like Warren. I really like Loveland. And I wanted to come in here with a argument for these guys. But when I look at it, it's Mark Andrews going in a very similar range. Evan Engram going in a very similar range. David and Joku going in a very similar range. When I look at Engram, when I look at them to each be the number two target on their team. Mark Andrew is probably the number two target on his team. And he was a guy who in that offense, you're betting on a ton of touchdown catches. And then if I look a little bit later, Tucker,

is tight end 14. Like, I think Kraft is a very interesting selection there. You talked about Golden. You talked about Reed. If no one's going to catch the ball at wide receiver like the market is betting on, then Tucker Kraft at tight end 14 is a really, really good one. Alan, let's quickly just look down at the lower ranked tight ends here. We're seeing Mason Taylor at tight end 22 and Elijah Royo at Titan 26.

There's been some glowing reports from OTAs in Seattle that, Seattle really is going to use Arroyo in this sort of wide receiver tight end hybrid role. Really interesting player. And of course, Mason Taylor, I mean, how can Mason Taylor not get targets with this scrap heap of wide receiver twos in New York, even though it's a Justin Fields led offense. Mason Taylor also was the third tight end selected. Do either one of these guys interest you at all? In the best ball, if you're doing a three tight end build, then yes.

But rookie tight end's already a bad bet. Like you said, we got spoiled with Leporta. We got spoiled with Brock Bowers. these guys need a couple of years to incubate. I'd rather have like Hunter Henry with an ascending offense than these guys. But I agree with everything you said. There's reasons to be optimistic. And if it's redraft where you can set the lineup, sure, draft them.

And if it's not working, there's no targets. If the jets throw the ball 22 times in week one and Mason Taylor has two targets for 28 yards, you know, you could drop them. I'll keep an eye on a Royo because Royal, I think I really believe in the talent. tight end too and also Alan if we do start seeing him get these downfield looks maybe he's they're using him in somewhat of a decay light role in some of the routes because you mentioned Cup JSN these guys are sort of superfluous they both need to be inside in the slot like in good word hold on hold on let's not let

that go unchecked right there superfluous I looked it up I want what is that I wanted to sound educated before you came in the pod because what is it bringing the heat what does it mean come on we're Alan we're not we're not we're not diving like kind of like overlapping in a sense. Yeah. I'm going to, can I use that from that one? Yeah, go for it.

Go for it. I don't even how to spell it. You know, Alan, Alan, Alan, Alan, big shout out to Long Island educated, Alan Shalowski where I live as well. I got it. Here you go. Superfluous.

Unnecessary, especially through being more than enough. Yes. So like the Cooper Cup signing when you had JSN, you know, you're basically going to take your best, best weapon was the slot, JSN. We're not going to get into a word.

I love it. No, no, no. I'm, listen, SAT, words, I'll never forget, the word vestibule. I'll never forget what it means now because it was on my SAT vocabular. Do kids even take SAT now? You have children. Yes. Yes, they do. Well, my kids are way off

from having to take the SAT, but they do take it. They do take it. Big shout out to Nassau County, Long Island, where I live and Alan Sislavski is from. Alan, let everyone know once again where they can find your work. They can find me at superfluous.com. Now, they, Rod a Wire,

YouTube page. I help produce, edit. Do all all the back-end work for a lot of the content creators. Making a bunch of stuff myself. We do Rotowire Dynasty podcast every Friday. If you like this conversation, this is the types of stuff we have. We have Theo on there. And then usually in July, Theo, Rotowire has a slot on Series XM.

I'll jump in there on Sundays and host for an hour. We'll talk some stuff. Obviously, we have you on there as a regular as well. Yeah, no, I'm looking forward to all that great stuff. Highly recommend Alan's work. Make sure you're sticking with us here at Fantasy Football Daily. we're going to have John Dagle on a little bit later this week. We're going to break down a big money draft that John and I are going to be in,

try to unpack some of this early ADP. Garrett Price from Dynasty Nerds will be joining me on Dynasty Life. We're talking about some Dynasty trades you need to make right now. You mess with Garrett. Who's a couple of his guys? Who does he like? Well, I did not go over his trade targets with him, but he really was into these Ohio State running backs.

Obviously, he's an Ohio State guy. but they were into the Ohio State running backs for a while. Pretty much Garrett was in line with a lot of our, not too much all over the board. Nobody really stood out. But, you know, he was into Tet McMillan. Oh, good. Okay.

Yeah, into all these runnings. And he was a big Cam Scadaboo guy like yourself. Yeah. Garrett, do you notice he does all his work and then starts listening to the mainstream. So sometimes his stuff is way off, but like not in a bad way. That's why I like Garrett. And if you want to unpack a little bit more of these rookies and their potential impact on their landing spots.

Mike Renner joined Scott Barrett and I on School of Scott. That pod just dropped. And Sigman Bloom from football guys will be joining Scott and I as well this week. We're bringing you awesome podcasts. Make sure you subscribe to all of our podcasts at Fantasy Points. And we'll see you soon.