Fantasy Football Daily - Wide Receiver Prospect Model with Dwain McFarland | On the Clock! NFL Draft Podcast

Episode Date: April 7, 2023

Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) and Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) of @MBFantasyLife dig into the incoming 2023 rookie wide receiver draft class using Dwain's proprietary prospect model. BRETT WHITEFIELD'S 2023 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT GUIDE IS FREE TO READ WITH A NO-CHARGE LOGIN AT FANTASY POINTS. Interested in playing Best Ball in 2023? There's no better place than Underdog Fantasy. Use our code FANTASYPTS to sign up for a new account at Underdog, and not only will you get a 100% deposit match up to $100... but you'll get a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for only $5! https://www.fantasypoints.com/underdog --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome in to another episode of On the Clock. I am your host, Brout Whitefield. And today we are joined by an analytical wizard. That's right.

he's a he's a Jedi of the analytics his name is dwayne macfarlane from fantasylife dot com he's the creator of the utilization report dwayne how are you my friend man i am doing good it's so awesome to be on here with you you have some really good guests that come on this pod like i was looking at your history i was like holy crap like you bring the hitters so yeah i feel honored to be here i guess that's one benefit of working in the space for like over a decade is you you get to meet a lot of people and they want to come on your pod for some reason. So you get to join the list, Duane, because you're a heavy hitter too, my man. Well, thanks, man.

I really appreciate it. Well, I know our paths, we've got some similarities. We both did the PFF thing for a while. And so, yeah, man, a lot of respect for your work as well. Heck yeah, man. And I did refer to Duane as a Jedi because we just watched the Assocato trailer in the pre-show meeting that we had. Because it just came out, and I'm very excited.

I'm a huge Star Wars geek. so but for for all intensive purposes dwayne is a wizard though so yeah i like the jedi we'll go with jenni jenni jenni of the analytics you be the jenni i'll be the wizard on this one i will do that sounds good all right so dwayne is a you know he builds these models and these models are super data data driven and then from what i've gathered dwayne you once you do your rankings uh post draft you kind of adjust for some film stuff as well. So you are mixing a little bit of film in with the analytics, but for the most part, you let your model speak for itself, no? Yeah, I do because I just trust the data and my work on

that side more than my capabilities as someone that watches film. That's not to say that there aren't other people in the industry that could do the total opposite, right? So I really do try to also look at what the scouts are saying. I try to listen. Now, I try to watch the players first. then I go back and see, because that's also how I'm trying to work and become better like as a film analyst, see, okay, what did I see that lined up? What did I see that maybe I didn't see the same way as someone else?

I may even reach out to them, you know, and ask, and sometimes, you know, you get a response. So always just trying to figure out ways to become better. But I watch the film as I do the model. So the way I create the model is pretty simple. It's really driven by fantasy. So I'm looking at the first three years of fantasy production,

average points per game. And I'm basically, looking for how often they finish right top 36 top 24 top 12 for receivers for tight ends i break it down down on the top 12 so it's it's nine to 12 then your next three your next three and your and then your top three finishes is how i do the tight ends but essentially i let the correlation right between you know all the different metrics that i study to those first three years of production really drive everything for the model and the way that the model gets weighted and it kind of is what it is it's not perfect but i don't try to like I have in the past like sit around like well if I tweak this way this this way and this

way like do my percentiles get even better right as far as beating draft capital and things like that and what I found is sometimes you'll just end up overtightening the model to some to a variable that may be there for two years right and then it's gone again and so now I try to I'll even back off a little bit from what it tells me exactly the way the waiting should be like I'll keep it a little bit looser than that be a little more conservative I create some overlap and some data points that similar to one another just because the way that they may affect the model. So my main goal, right, is to have a model that's really thorough. I try not to let people fall through the cracks.

But I don't get like overly hell bent on saying, oh my God, this is the one thing. Like this is the thing that matters, you know, for everyone. Now, there are, I'll share with some of them with you guys as we go, like the things for each position like that pop the most after draft capital. I'm happy to share some of that. But yeah, that's how I approach the model. And then as far as watching the film, you know, I'm just looking. Like so especially I like using the data to help lead me when I watch the film as well, right?

So there's certain things I'm going to be looking for. If I know certain elements of a player's game really drove them up in the model, but then I really want to be looking for those things on film where they did they happen to be running wide open on those plays because of busted coverage. And if I see something like that, I'll put that in the notes for the player writeups for the tears. I'm feeling shots fired for Jalen Hyatt already. Oh yeah. Yeah, lots of stack formations for Jalen, even when he was on the outside. like if you go watch the game against Kentucky

like he had two plays where basically like his cornerback just got lost on the stack formation. There were three plays like that in the season. Now what I will say for Jalen is once you make a mistake with him like it's over like he's gone. Like you're not catching up. So that's still

Jalen. And I want your thoughts here because you watch a lot of film. So Jalen's a really interesting one to start with because when you watch him and he plays against the SEC, he is really getting over the top of some of the the best players in the league. Now, the team did everything they could to give him free releases and scheme him up all day long. Kept him in the slot. He was off the ball almost all the time.

I mean, over 90% of the time, I think he lined up off ball, 88% of his career in the slot. So they didn't put him on the line of scrimmage. So our sample size is pretty small. Like, can he be any sort of physical press coverage? We're not sure. Like, when I watched him do it and the data, it's a small sample, it wasn't terrible. Like he was okay at it. But you don't know. Did the team do that because he can't win that way? Or just because, you know what, he's the best player on our team. We're just going to scheme him up. You don't always know.

Yeah, the speed is so special. I mean, I call this FU play calling. It's like, we're, yeah, their scheme is funny. You know this play is called, but it doesn't matter because you can't stop it. And that was true. I mean, he absolutely roasted Alabama. And a lot, some of it was scheme, but some of it is just, you know, it's the F you. I've never seen such wide splits.

Like, they're like lined up on the damn sideline out there. with that stack formation with him and Tillman. And Tillman was a big part of him getting open, by the way. They'll literally go like a straight up bunch outside the numbers. And in college football, there is from the center point of the numbers, there's eight yards between the center point in the sideline. And they'll have three receivers out that wide. Yeah, it's like so, I mean, we're either going straight or we're breaking in.

But it, hey, it worked for them. So when I watch a guy like Jalen Hyatt, Dwayne, I'm looking for, is there anything translatable to his game to the NFL other than just peer speed? What I see from him is like really, really good start stoppability, really good change of direction skills and that explosive first step. So that tells me he has all the tools he needs to be a functioning route runner. Now, unfortunately, we don't have tape to see how good he is at playing through contact, how good he is at absorbing that, getting off of tight coverage at the top of his stem,

shaking that loose. Those are things that he is going to have a developmental runway for sure. But I still like the guy because the physical traits are out of this world. And he produced at such a high level. It's like we can't throw the baby out with the bathwater. We realize that a lot of that was manufactured production. Dude, a thousand, 85 yards and 13 touchdowns were on plays with a step or more of separation last year. It's insane, man.

337 of his 387 routes were aligned off of the line of scrimmage. So it is hard. It's crazy. And you know what's even crazier? He's, I mean, he's faster than he tested. Oh, yeah. I want to know that. Yeah, when I saw people complaining about the 40 time, the 4-4, I didn't.

I was not worried at all that because I had already watched him. And I was like, dude, just go watch. I mean, he's just hosting SEC players. And it's not all free releases. There are times when he, a guy has perfect responsibility and has set up and Jalen just blows by him. And they're good players. So I'm not worried about that. He's definitely faster than that 4-4.

Yeah. And his high school track record speaks of, well, college track record even too, early in his career. and then Zebra Technologies has put out he hit 22 plus miles an hour several times last year which go look at the NFL list yeah you got what four not even four guys that hit that mark so he'll be a top of your who's your comp will fuller okay I had will fuller in there too Lance zero line had Deshawn Jackson which I see I just you know it's tough when you get to praise like that because Deshawn played for so long was such a difference maker you know for multiple

teams but Will Fuller actually was a name that I wrote that I said that hey Kim comes to mind the most when I watch you know Hyatt play yeah Hyatt can catch those the the difference there like liability it's funny I've seen some people like really busting on Hyatt uh god what was there was a game where they played him with a ton of off cover he had one really bad game where he had several drops it didn't show up like in every game I can't remember now who it was and they actually shut him down they played a ton of off coverage on him I can't remember if it was but the model itself gave him a range of James Washington to Christian Watson Like when I watch him and then add like, you know, what I'm seeing on film, I go Will Fuller.

The other thing I'll say about the model is I'm only going back to the 2017 class, which is the other reason I don't over tighten in this one because like my goal has been, there's so many really good models that are already out there. Like Scott Barrett does a great one for you guys. JJ Zacharisen has an amazing model that has really good hit rates. And so one thing that I was looking to do is try to use, you know, really the advanced data that we have. And I know Scott's doing this as well. And I'm really trying to lean into that more than like anything with the,

combine or things like that. So like explosive playmaking really matters to me. You know, now it's not perfect because I'm taking your explosive target rate. Well, if your quarterback is bad, that's going to, that's going to impact your explosive target rate. So just like a 40 time, you know, is not, I'd much rather, I will say this. This has way more signal in the model than a 40 time or even a speed score. So I still like it better, but it's not perfect. So trying to piece the things together, right? So explosive play rate's really big, but there's two components of that, right? Can you attack downfield? So part of that, your average depth of target, which we've seen really wide receivers and tight-ins typically

own that. Sometimes you'll see a little more variance in college or when they make the transition to the NFL, but then the other component is yards after the catch, right? Which brings me to another guy. I really am curious with you like this, Quentin Johnston, because like he has this rare, yes, he can stretch the field. There are some issues there, but like after the catch, like that little spin movie has and he's so thick down low, like the first tackler on those hitch routes, the slant routes, when he reverses out of it. You don't see a lot of guys that can do both of those things.

Now, he has work to do on both of those areas, but like the raw ability, like, looks really good for Quentin Johnson. Yeah, Johnson is still my wide receiver one. Okay. He's a guy I really, really like. He, I mean, his physical traits are special. You don't see guys his size with the ankle flexibility, the hip sync that he has. So I think he has the trades to be like an elite level route runner at the NFL level.

Now he doesn't play really to his size at the catch point Some of that was Max Duggan Max was not on target very often And put QJ in some really awkward spots But ultimately I think You know QJ reminds me a lot of Christian Watson The guy you already invoked He does have that yards after catchability

And he's gonna I just think he's a really good playmaker And his ceiling is so high to me Because of the things he can do with his body at his size I don't think it's fair to the NFL if he develops Yeah, I agree hands career average depth of target of 15.6 and just to like give some context so like when I look at average depth of target and I look at yards after the catch like they really typically as your a dot goes up your yards after the catch comes down right a lot of things change like the your your catch rate's going to go down as your a dot goes up your contested catch rate goes up as your a dot goes up and it makes sense right you're if you're going deeper down the field you're dealing with especially against a lot of zone coverages you're going to be dealing with a cornerback plus a safety by the time the ball gets there. But what was really interesting for me with Quentin Johnston was the fact that, you know, even though he had a plus 14 average depth of target, the average, right? Over the last, since 2014, is 4.9 yards after the catch for wide receivers with that kind of average depth of target. And they had to have at least, you know, 100, sorry, 250 routes to get to this. But 8.3 was the yards after the catch for Johnson on his career. So almost, you know, double. doubling, not quite doubling, but you know, 3.4 yards above, you know, what the average is.

So, I mean, there's just, it's rare to see someone that can do both of those things. And so I do. And the other thing I would ask you is like, I hear a lot of people, way he plays small, he body catches. And I'm like, you know, I used to really get hung up on body catching. But like, the longer I've watched film, like, I'd rather a guy be able to pluck it in front of them all the time. I think that's, I think it is a plus. But for a big guy like him, like, and I grew up watching Michael Irvin. Like, I grew up. watching the Cowboys. You know,

my dad was a huge cowboy fan. And, like, Michael Irvin caught, body caught a ton of stuff, like on hitch routes, slant routes. And that's mostly where I see Johnston doing that.

And he's big. He's boxing out the defender. And it doesn't seem, he does have some focus drops. But, like, his overall drop rate was not bad, especially,

again, for his average depth of target. Yeah, when you, when you scout him from a technique standpoint, like, he does greet the football awkwardly. He does clap at a lot of footballs.

I think, a lot of people Matt Waldman told me Matt Waldman I asked him about Quentin Johnson and he said he called him a clapper

so you guys are on the same page he was on the pod Wednesday so we talked all about that but a couple of guys that greet the football

similarly to QJ are Terry McLaren and Mark Andrews and obviously it hasn't stopped them from having success Deonté Johnson's in there too he's a little bit of a body catcher

a little bit of a clapper I am not a drop Nazi, so to speak. It doesn't probably be that much because it's like the difference between a guy who drops a lot of passes and doesn't is like four plays a year. Like honestly. Yeah.

I'm with you. Yeah. So like if it's really, really bad, yeah, it's going to hurt your score in my, in my, numeric scoring system, but it's not going to crush you. And so I'm not super worried about it with him. And I think some of it's simple fixes too, right? It's not, I don't think he's possible. He has, he has great.

ball tracking skills, great ball skills. Yeah, he's not Stephen Hill. I remember back in the day scouting Stephen Hill, and I really was worried about his drops because I would just see him always struggle to locate the ball, like when he would turn around. Like his eyes, like they would be so huge and he's like, where is it?

It would be like in his face mask, you know? I'm with you. I didn't see that with Quentin Johnston. Yeah. Let me ask you a question about your model. How do you adjust for a level of competition? Because this is the big debate. Yeah.

Yeah, so Power 5, and that's something that I want to tighten down. So I just reworked the whole thing this year and having the kind of data that I really want. So I'll be honest, like right now, it's more of a manual adjustment. I'm just, I'm taking all the guys that didn't play against a lot of the Power 5 and I just auto, I'm auto adjusting them down. But it's not based on like, hey, this great big study that I did about what should a Power 5 guy look like. Now, you've done this long enough and I've done it long enough. I know when I'm looking at an FCS yards per route run and it's like a five.

Like, I've seen it a lot. Like, you don't see it when you don't see it. you're looking at guys that play the power five so you know it's there but as far as like how much to adjust it down that's one of my goals for the model next year is like to just actually make that more precise and so uh we've got someone on our team um that's going to help me with that like with actually digging into these models next year even more from like a mathematical perspective but yeah i just i adjust it down so right now like and it depends basically i'm taking 10% off um of their final score so if you came out as a 78 right 78th percent of

Tile, I'm taking 7.8 off of your score for being, you know, someone that never really played against Power 5. So like that hurts Tucker Kraft, guys like that, Nathaniel Dell, all those types of guys that didn't have many snaps against Power 5. Yeah. That's interesting. So like Christian Watson's a good example of a guy. I was higher on than everybody last year. I had a first round grade on him. I think I was the first person to give him a top 50 grade even. And all like all my analytical friends thought I was crazy. Like, you know. Yeah.

Well, and that's why you have to, you really do have to be careful with it. I liked Christian Watson as well. I think it sounds like you know film better than I do, but when I watched him what I could get my hands on, like Christian Watson, it was tougher.

There wasn't as much film. But yeah, I did like him. And I loved this, I loved with the landing spot. I loved when he went to Green Bay just with what they had going on. So yeah, I do think you have to be careful.

And so I'll probably need to talk to you more. next off season. What are the things that you think are most translatable, that kind of thing? Like when we're watching these guys that come from the smaller schools,

that's something I talk a lot to Matt Waldman about too. Yeah, for sure. Matt's a great guy to talk about that. His process is very similar to mine, actually, very criteria-driven. And then,

you know, that's why I love his, is I can see everything that came to a grade, you know, on a player. Most these scouts don't give you any of that, you know,

and you just get blurb sound bites. Not saying they don't do the work, but you don't get to, to see it. You get to see all of mats. So yeah. Yeah, that's cool. Yeah, for receivers, I have like nine traits that I score them on, you know, functionality and then also repeatability. So, okay. But yeah, what about, so we talked QJ, we talked Hyatt. Who are some other guys that your, your model? Give me your top five, if you don't mind. Yeah, I don't mind. So JSN is number one. He came out in 90th percentile in the model, which is a really good score. Now, this is that the ones,

the scores I'm giving you right now are also, I'm using expected draft capital as well. So I've went ahead and included that based on the latest mock stuff. So I use grinding the mocks for the top guys. And then I use, you know, mock draft database, you know,

as well for some of these guys that aren't over on grinding the mocks. And then, yeah, so JSNs at the top. I'm sure you've talked about Hemeton. I have QJ number two. I've got Jordan Addison out of USC formerly pit at number three. Jalen Hyatt is,

now that ends tier one for me. You could technically separate JSN into his own tier. I have them all three in one tier. JSA is a 90th percentile, and I've got Addison and Quentin Johnson are both at the 87th percentile, you know, in the model. So, and over 85 percent, and my model is really good. So Jalen Hyatt is the beginning of tier two. Then I have Zayflowers, and then I've got Josh Downs,

and I've got Marvin Menz as wide receiver seven. Mems is the guy that actually pop the most in the model. So despite having expected third round draft capital, he's still grading out in tier two. Draft capital is the number one factor, right? I mean, it's just proven. It's the thing that's going to matter the most when you're talking about fantasy points, and there's a lot of reasons for that.

Part of it is like the NFL does, they know what they're doing a decent amount of time, but the other part is once you get the draft capital, you know, you get more chances. You get more chances to prove yourself and move forward. But with Mems, he's a guy that in the model when you, remove draft capital like he he's borderline tier one um now so he's a guy I spent a lot of time watching so I'm very curious to hear what your thoughts are on him but the things that made him really pop in the model he did show that he could stretch the field um so his explosive play rate is really high

but then when I watch him like the speed is good but it's not like tantalizing like and a lot of his production came on like deep crossers where he was basically cut loose in the secondary so that worried me a little bit with him versus a lot of the vertical stuff, a lot of acrobatic catches. He made some fantastic catches for sure, like some great body adjustment, that kind of stuff. But I do worry a little bit. Like at the next level, will he really be able to stretch the defense out like he did

at Oklahoma if he can't play something more like a slot where he can work those deep crossers? Stuff, more horizontal deep stuff versus just true vertical route tree, like, you know, goes and things like that. But my model, the three comps I had, Christian Kirk, then would deep. E.J. Chark would really be the second. And then the final will be Di Amy Brown. We're still kind of early in his career, but hasn't worked out so far with the commanders. Yeah, I'm a big Marvin Mims guy. I think he scored it as my sixth best receiver in this class. Okay, nice. Well, you're making me feel good. He's right there. I know.

Scott loves him too, so that made me feel good. If you both of you guys are on board, that makes me feel better. Scott's on the pod next week, and I don't want to do, I don't want to spoiler his model, but I know he has Mims even higher than both of us. I love what I see on tape from MIMS. I do think the expected draft capital thing is interesting because I think he's a guy who's going to get drafted higher than the community says he's going to get drafted. Well, if he gets a second round pick, like, to give you, like, because I did put expected in the model,

like if he gets a second round pick, even with second round capital, he'll be borderline on that tier one that I talked about. Like he would come in, like if I gave him a high second round pick, like if I put it in the model right now, he comes out 84th percentile. So 85th is my cutoff.

So, yeah. I'll make you a deal. If he doesn't go in the second round, I will drink a beer out of my shoe. Oh, man. Okay. I'll take it. Do I have to do anything in return? Like, you're just offering to do this?

This is how confident I am. The NFL is going to see him the same way I do. Well, I hope so. I don't know why they wouldn't, to be honest. Like, looking at his profile, I really don't get it. Like, again, honestly, I was hunting for things on film because I'm like, why is there a third round grade on this guy? I just, I couldn't come to terms with it.

Yeah, it's, some of it is fatigue, draft fatigue. So, like, he's been touted as this amazing player since he was in high school. He broke every Texas high school record there is. Five-star guy goes Oklahoma, you know, plays quarterback musical chairs his entire career, leads them in receiving three years in a row. It's just, I think it's fatigue for a lot of people. I mean, yeah, I mean, he, as a freshman, like, he had a great year. Yes. You know, I know a lot of the dynasty community is like, well, they never got to the 30th percentile.

dominator. Like, that's not a hard and fast rule for me. Everything's on a scale. Like, I do care. Like, and they get points for that, for hitting a breakout age over that 30th percentile, but everything still is really on a scale. So I wasn't that concerned about that. Like, he's handled over 30% of their touchdowns and 30% of their yards in separate seasons.

I think there's a lot to lie. I didn't think his underneath game was that great. Like, he has the speed to beat angles and things, but it's not going to break a lot of tackles, doesn't juke a lot of people. I don't see a ton of miss. tackle ability. I see an ability like if he catches it with a little bit of speed already going, like he definitely has the speed to take away angles and things like that and create big plays. But I didn't think like he was like, he didn't like wow me on the underneath route stuff.

Yeah, I could see that. I think he is a really nice jump cut move that could help him at the next level. He didn't get to use a lot of. But yeah, he's a he's an angle eroder for sure. That's his game in the open field. I do think Mims is going to go ahead of Josh Down. I'll make that bold thing. I think he should. Yeah. Yeah, I'm a little bit lower on downs than most. Where did your model?

Yeah. Right now, with the expected draft capital, which he's basically overcoming, he's seven. But that's with a third round capital. If I put, like I said, second in there, he immediately moves to the top of this tier ahead of Jalen Hyatt. He would be my number four. Downs, that's downs? No, no, no, no. Sorry, that was MIMS.

Downs is just one spot above MIMS. He's 78th percent. MIMS is 75th percentile. But downs has second round capital. MIMS has third. Okay. Raw and the model, you remove, sorry, you remove draft capital, MIMS is way above downs.

Okay. Cool. That's good then because I do think MIMS will go ahead of downs. But, um, so what about Kishon? What do you think about Kishon? Kishon. I'm out on Kishon.

Are you? Okay. Heard some things, health related that are not good. With the ankle. And it's tough to talk about on a podcast because it's not necessarily verified information. So I don't want to be speculative at all. But I do trust most of my sources.

But yeah, he just never, that athleticism he showed as a freshman, he never got that back. It, like it was just not there the year after, was not there this year. It showed up at the Combine when he basically talking about the biggest job interview of your lifetime. I would say he utterly failed that job interview. I, you know, I think there's definitely some smoke there. I don't necessarily love it. And even the high end of his game when he was feeling himself, it was okay. It wasn't special to me.

Yeah. He had the early breakout, obviously, like you're talking about. But I agree with what you're talking about as far as what did that look like as his career went on. And basically what you're hoping is that it was due to health and now he can get it back. But if there are real concerns that like that's just gone, period, then that would be bad. I did notice over the last two years, like a lot of his separation was really late in the routes. you know, like just, you know, as the ball, like, is leaving the quarterback's hand, he's just finding that little bit of separation.

Now, played against a lot of really good corners, too. So that was part of it. But, yeah, I can see where you're going. I still feel like he has a chance. I agree on the combine thing, failing the combine. My model doesn't really care about the combine. So that's a cool thing where Scots will be different, you know, than mine. I'm kind of on this, you know, warpath of trying to figure out ways to use more of the

advanced stuff to not need the combine. But yeah, I think all the things you said are legit concerns. Right on. Before we let you go, where does your model have guys that I'm high on that we don't have a ton of film for? So like I'm Michael Wilson from Stanford. Hang on one second. Let me pull it back up. He's down. So again, a lot of the stuff that drives, you know, my model.

You know, so yards per team pass attempt, right, is really big for the wide receivers. The career explosive target rate is a. in their, you know, their breakout age is part of it. So with, let's see, I have my, so where do you have? I have him 22. You probably have him way higher than me. I have a day too great on him. I think he's like 16 or 17 or something like that.

Yeah, age is definitely hurting him. You know, he'll be 23 and a half. So there are several guys that a lot of the scouting community likes, like Cedric Tillman. Tillman comes in 12th, AT Perry's 13th. I love to. You know, so those guys are getting hurt by their, by their age. So like if you, and you can go over to fantasylife.com and you can see the model. We're trying to make it better.

But right now it's, you know, with the, with what we have that we can use on the site, we do have it color coded. You know, where basically you can, you know, it's kind of like a heat map when you're looking at it. And you'll, you'll start to see where the tear breaks are. You see the guys that are all blue and you see the red start to creep in. But that first group of guys that have the red, like they still have a lot of blue and all the data points like, you know, they're, they're, they're dominators. their target shares, all that kind of stuff, but the age, right, is creeping up. And so that's really one of the things for me on Michael Wilson. And I'll be honest, I have not watched a lot of Michael Wilson, but now that you told me about him,

I'll have to, he's a guy that I'll have to go back and watch more. Yeah, I've got, he passes all the vibe checks for me. I know it's hard to quantify, but like when I showed up at Senior Bowl Week, this dude was out on the field, just grinding footwork drills for an hour before practice started. just looks incredible doing it and I know it's on air and there's nobody covering him so my opinion of him started to grow

before I even watched the tape but then when you turn on the tape and I saw him at senior ball practice all week you see like these super high level release game that he's got I would say he's arguably the best route runner in the class especially from the outside

from an outside position just phenomenal stuff so like I'm a sucker for good route running if you're a good route runner you're going to score high in my system love it What about his career averaged up the target was 9.2, which is really low for wide receiver.

Now, that's not in the model, but it's just kind of context that I like to look at with the explosive target rate because his explosive target rate was only 18%, which comes out in the 23rd percentile, right, since 2017. So those things are hurting him in the model. But having said that, we do see guys that come out that have that kind of intermediate underneath a dot that can be. Target hogs. The only problem is he was never really a target hog either, like in college. So those things are hurting him. Now, he did, he did hit a best dominator of 30%. So he did check some of the boxes. So I'm for sure going to go back and watch him. All right. Who's the next? Deep production is definitely not his game. Like maybe in the red zone, you can throw him some fades and stuff, but he's a short intermediate demon who's just a possession receiver. He's going to live like a possession receiver. So do you like him more than Cedric Tillman? Because a lot of people like. like Cedric Tillman. I saw Lance Zierline mocked Cedric Tillman at the last first pick to the Chiefs in his mock this week. That was interesting.

That was interesting to say the least. I don't see Tillman as a round one guy, but hey. Yeah, I don't either. The model doesn't either. But I was just interested if you have Wilson above Tillman. Because I think Tillman, he has a little bit more vertical

ability, but like still more of a possession receiver in my mind when I watch him. Yes. Yep. And that's You got to see that contrast a little bit towards end of the year with him and Hyatt together. I thought Hyatt did a good job of clearing space and they used Tillman in the what like Tillman beat up Keeley Ringo pretty good this year. Yeah. Which is a good testament.

And all that was short intermediate stuff. I like, he should have big and big games. I will give that to Tillman. Yes. His games against Alabama were he was bawling. For sure. No,

my favorite of the big X type guys is A.T. Perry. Okay. Yeah. I love Perry. He's, uh, I think he's like a DJ Charkish. kind of clone. I know he doesn't have that level of juice downfield,

but the ADOT's there, 15 first career. Explosive target raise a little low for that, 18%. It's a 27th percentile. This is since the 2017 class again. But with Perry, again, a big thing for him, like he checked a lot of boxes for me, the age thing's getting him. He'll be 23.9

when the NFL, almost 24, when the season starts for the NFL, him and Nathaniel Dell and Charlie Jones are the oldest guys. So it's definitely hurting them. But when I watched Perry, I kind of got it. You know, I like the DJ Chark vibe because he's a, although he's tall, he's, he's a little more slender built like a chart. So like I can also see it like in his body type.

I agree. Probably not as much juice. AT Perry's funny. Like when you watch him, like he doesn't look like it doesn't look like it should be working, but it is. Like it's the best way I can explain it. Like he's crafty in his own way. Sorry, what were you saying?

Those long striders are like that, man. Like they don't look fast, but they are just because the, you can, he catches corners off guard too with how quickly he gets on top of them. But he's a really good route runner for like nearly six four. He's really high cut as well, super long legs. Fantastic route runner, which again, I'm a sucker for that. So I don't know that it'll be like a bonafide deep threat the next level, but I think he could give you DJ Chark intermediate dominance, which that's really where Chark has made his money. I know he's been hurt the last two years, so it hasn't been great for Chark. early in charge career it looked like that's where he was going to dominate the NFL

was the intermediate part of the field and I think Perry can give you similar production so yep yep with you on that one cool I think that should do it we'll wrap it up I told you 20 minutes we're at 32 so let's get out here no we're cool man hey I enjoy getting to hear other people talk about these guys to be honest so and I know that from the time you spent and doing the job that you do like I know like man you grind the film and so like I I love coming on these kind of shows. So, man, if you'll be, if you'll have me back at some point, I'll always be glad to come back. Oh, heck yeah.

We will absolutely have you back. All right, people, you can find him on Twitter at Dwayne McFarland. He's on FantasyLife.com. All of his work is there. Go check out his wide receiver tight end model that are up right now. I think that would be a good read for you guys. Dwayne, thank you so much. Yeah, man.

Appreciate you. Have good one. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.