Fantasy Football Today - 01/02: 2020 Top 12; DFS Advice! (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 2, 2020

Ready for the playoffs? So are we, and we'll start the show with a few players we love this week and some that we are fading. Can we trust A.J. Brown or Derrick Henry? Do we need to get Michael Thomas in our lineups even with his cost? ... We reveal our Top 12 for 2020 (8:00). Adam, Jamey and Ben Schragger debate their lists. We discuss the troubling trends for WRs in general, particularly Julio Jones. We get into Joe Mixon's value and if the TEs should be drafted in the Top 12 ... News and notes (22:08) and more DFS talk (32:30)! Previewing every game and giving lineups. Adam is falling in love with Josh Allen. Are there any MIN players to start? Is Travis Homer a good value? We cover it all for FanDuel and DraftKings and then we discuss Playoff Challenge formats ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are into 2020. Welcome to the show. It's Fantasy Football today. It is Thursday, right? I've lost track of the days. Thursday, January 2nd. Hope everybody had a happy New Year.

Special guest on the show today, Shraggy B. Ben Schrager. What's going on, man? Not much. Happy New Year. Happy New Year to you. Get a little closer to the mic. Don't be a straighter.

All right, we're in. There you go. Yeah. What are we doing on the show today? You're the producer. We've got some great. They were previewing all the bike. Don't be a stranger. All right, we're in. There you go. Yeah. What are we doing on the show today? You're the producer. We've got some great that we're previewing all the matchups this week,

but the most important thing, top 12 for next year. We'll see where people have Michael Thomas. We'll see what Derek Henry's status is. I don't know what Jamie thinks.

We'll see, but it's going to be a fun show. Is he in your top 12? No. Is he in your top 12? My top 12. In PPR?

Okay. Yeah, actually, I don't think that's the most important thing. I think the DFS stuff is the most important thing, but whatever. They're both going to? My top 12. In PPR? Okay. Yeah, actually, I don't think that's the most important thing. I think the DFS stuff is the most important thing. But whatever. They're both going to be on the show. We also have some news and notes for you.

Jamie's here. Ben's here. I'm Adam. I'm here. Let's get started. Are there players that you really like this week in DFS? We got four games. We got the Bills and the Texans.

We got the Titans and the Patriots. We got the Seahawks at the Eagles. And we got the Saints hosting the Vikings. Who are some players that are popping for you? I'll be playing a lot of Greg Ward and Travis Homer. Those are probably my two favorites for this week based on what their pricing is and

what their roles are. Those are definitely players I looked at because yeah, you're going to need some cheap players. Only four games, right? If you want to get Michael Thomas in your lineup, I think a lot of people are going to be heavy on the Saints, right? So Ward usually gets about seven targets. Most wide receivers who get seven targets against the Seahawks do well. Not Greg Ward, though.

He had six catches for 40 yards. And then with Homer, is there any chance he's going to score a rushing touchdown? Doesn't matter. He's going to catch probably five or six passes. Yeah, I like him more in DraftKings than FanDuel. Get the full PPR. We can talk both. Yeah, we'll talk both.

Yes, we're talking both. How about you? Michael Thomas. Got to lock in Michael Thomas at home. The guy's been unbelievable. Nine-plus catches in every game at home this year. Only one game under 10 catches at home. And it's the playoffs.

It's Drew Brees heating up. Michael Thomas is locked in. He might be be the chalk and i don't care i def like are we highest on the saints i mean it's the highest it's the highest um you know the highest favorite yeah so i haven't looked at the team told you oh they're the biggest favorite right and okay so brie like breeze on draft kings is a great value he's like a hundred dollars more than josh allen he's the second cheapest quarterback second most expensive i think russell wilson's more expensive than him on fanduel breeze is pretty pricey you gotta pay off for him but that's the guy that i want if not him if you're gonna pivot to another offense to me

i really like josh allen i like what josh allen's done in primed and like show in spotlight games this year played Played great against the Patriots. Played great at Dallas. Played pretty well at Pittsburgh. I think he's got a chance here. I just like Josh Allen. I thought there was some issue with Vandal that you couldn't do both the whole

slate. No, I got it. Should be the four-game slate. There were some complaints about that, though. It was not easy to find. And, you know, that was interesting. But, no, go in there and just make sure you select the Sunday main slate. And, you know, I got my lineup. It's got Drew Brees.

It's got Michael Thomas. John Brown I really like. Oh, it's the millionaire tournament you can't do. Okay, millionaire. All right. How about players we don't like? Ben, anyone you're fading on DFS this week?

I really don't like the Vikings wide receivers. Thielen finally played a ton of snaps in Week 16 and did nothing. Goose egg. Diggs' production went down when Thielen returned. So I'm staying away. Even though they're going to be trailing, they're going to be throwing the ball, I don't like either of their receivers.

Jamie? AJ Brown. I think it's going to be a tough game for him. I think Tannehill's history in Foxborough is something you want to avoid. The Vikings guys, I think, you know, Dalvin Cook should be fine, hopefully, with the shoulder injury. But, you know, I think that's going to be the Saints' focus is probably try and take him away.

So, you know, as we've seen, one hit to his shoulder, it's been a problem for him. So that's something I think could be an issue that if he takes a hit the wrong way, you don't want to deal with that. Also, we forgot to mention a player that we actually really like. It's kind of a sneaky one. If Zach Ertz is out,

Josh Perkins is a tight end. And he's really cheap. And he played one game without Ertz and he had a really good game against the Giants in Week 17. So that's someone you could save money on. We'll talk much more about these in a little bit. I don't think I'm going to have any Dalvin Cook.

Yeah, you can't trust the health. And the Saints run defense has still been ridiculous, even in three games since Sheldon Rankin got hurt. And Dalvin Cook's averaging like 3.3 yards per carry in his last six games. They just haven't been a very good running team lately. And then Derrick Henry's really interesting, guys, because in wins, in nine wins, he's averaging 129 rushing yards per game, 5.74 yards per carry. In six losses, Derrick Henry is averaging 63.5 rushing yards per game.

It's basically half of his average in wins and 3.77 yards per carry. They could win. They could win. But that stat does stand out to me and his non-ppr fantasy points and losses 15 10 13 2 21 and 8 the game they had 21 fantasy points actually had three catches 36 yards and a receiving touchdown he's michael thomas he's michael thomas so i don't think i'm gonna be playing derrick henry and the patriots don't give up rushing touchdowns either ever that's what one to a running back all year i believe unless no they didn't give up rushing touchdowns either. Ever. So that's a huge error. But one to a running back all year, I believe.

Unless, no, they didn't give up one in week 17 to a running back. Yeah, that's amazing. All right, so we'll come back. We'll give you some DFS lineups, some more tips, and get into that. We got three episodes. You know, Ben always tells me what to promote. Why don't you promote it today, Ben? All right, we got three episodes a week, all offseason, plus bonus pods.

So any big news that comes out jamie's hopping on adam's hopping on heath dave everybody's hopping on for these bonus podcasts about that jamie so we're all ready for that and then we also have the award show next tuesday tuesday the 7th we're gonna vote in the facebook group fantasy football today on facebook you could vote for the comeback the uh biggest rookie of the year, the best waiver wire pickup, the worst waiver wire pickup. I know we had a good discussion on that. Is it Mike Boone, Brian Hill, Ty Johnson?

No, it's Ty Johnson. No, it's Mike Boone. It's Ty Johnson. You spent all your fab on Ty Johnson. He was 93% owned. You did. No, I didn't spend. I was like, screw that.

I'm getting JDd mckissick and we were i was obviously wrong too but people spent so much fab on ty johnson and he was terrible and he was only he was probably only started one week what about all the money they couldn't spend when they lost their championship because they started mike boone yeah it was mike boone's the worst well you know what we'll let the people decide so hop in the facebook group vote on that you can leave an apple pot review to vote on the biggest bust of the year. People aren't saying Juju, but I think Juju should be up there despite the Roethlisberger injury. People give him a break.

You can give him a pass. Injuries are always kind of... It was bad. It was really bad. So I'm voting for Le'Veon Bell. What was I wrong? David Johnson. I think David Johnson.

Oh, that's right. I think you kind of convinced me. David Johnson's the number one, right? I don't know. Because like you said, David Johnson, I would say that before the Kenyon-Drake trade, David Johnson was definitely better than Le'Veon Bell, right? I don't know, definitely.

I don't think it was close, because he was scoring. He was a top eight running back. Yeah, and we did a mid-season mock draft, and we all had him, I believe. Well, he went in the top 10. Does Ben Gretsch take some... He would have gone in the first round. He's top 20 for next year.

He's got David Johnson 12th. Does he really? No. So I still think it was Bell because Johnson, before the Drake trade, was a must-start guy and played like a must-start guy. Bell would play like a low-end number two running back all year. And, you know, all right, we'll see. Let the people decide. All right, let's do our uh top 12 for 2020 this is in ppr christian mccaffrey

one yes log in yeah yeah right who's ben have uh christian mccaffrey one all right i'll let jamie uh give you the uh the rights here to the the first top 12 um this will be on the site we did this on cbs sports hq as well um christian mccaffrey michael thomas saquon barkley dalvin cook ezekiel elliott deandre hopkins davante adams julio jones alvin kamara nick chubb travis kelsey george kill for me okay now let's do it again and a little slower mccaffrey thomas who is the third saquon barkley go ahead zeke. Zeke. Zeke. Dalvin. Dalvin. DeAndre. Hopkins.

Adams. Adams. By the way, I had to write a very funny sentence on the wide receivers that Adam likes Cooper better than Adams in breaking down the wide receivers. Yeah. You have a Marty Cooper ahead of Devontae Adams. Yeah, I feel about that, but I'll explain. Go ahead.

Hopkins. Adams. Julio. Kamara, Chubb, Kelsey, and Kittle. Kelsey and Kittle making your first round. Kelsey, by the way, was a full point better per game in PPR than Kittle. Kelsey was, I believe he would have been wide receiver 13 this year. I have this in my notes somewhere. And because i was considering him as well did not quite make the cut i think one thing that's so interesting and jamie you have

let's see you mcafree thomas so thomas two hopkins at six adams at seven julio at eight four wide receivers in your first round this was a terrible year for wide receivers. It comes off of 2018, which was a great year for wide receivers. But I think there are really easy arguments against DeAndre Hopkins and against Julio Jones. And Devonta Adams just didn't have that good of a year. Well, if you take their points per game, and if you take it in the sample sizes, I think that matter. So for Adams, if you take his numbers post- post toe injury yeah he would have been the number three receiver in ppr points per game right but it was but it was a down year oh you for the position yes but but and like how many games he had a turn how many games did he have how many games did he

have in that stretch after the toe injury with like less than 40 yards or less than 50 yards i don't know my internet's not working right now. So, yeah. So it was just kind of weird. He just wasn't himself. And then you look at Hopkins with Fuller, Hopkins all season having. So he, his three great seasons, 2015,

16, 18, over 20 fantasy points per game. This was his worst year, non broadcast weather. Right. He's like 17 fantasy, but he's like three points per game. P his worst year non-broadcast weather right he's like 17 fantasy but he's like

three points per game ppr worse this year than he was in his three very consistent very awesome you know number one ish and he was still a top five receiver because the position was so down yeah like chris godwin was better than everybody except for thomas, he was second best receiver. Okay, so what's your top 12? Top 12, McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, Zeke Elliott, Kamara, Hopkins, Derek Henry, Julio Jones, Mixon, Fournette, Tyree Kill. Fournette, wow. That's interesting.

McCaffrey, Barkley, Cook, Thomas, Zeke, Kamara. So five running backs in your first six. Then Hopkins, then Henry, Julio, Mixon, Fournette, and Hill. Wow. Talk about 10, 11, 12. Mixon, Fournette, and Hill. Mixon, I mean, he was RB4 from week 10 on, and it's Joe Burrow time. So, I mean, he did better with the better quarterback

and andy dalton playing so i don't see why he's going to be outside the top 10 of running backs jamie what do you think mixin next uh i think he's a second round pick um and you're the only one of the five other people that have ranked mixin that have him in the top 12 uh he does not have him in his top 10 running backs you don't have him in his top 10 running backs. You don't have him in your top 10 running backs? No, I think I have him 11. Ben Gretsch does not have him in his top 10 running backs. It's a strong group.

Not even a first-round pick. No, but it's a strong group. He could easily finish. I have Aaron Jones ahead of him. I have Derrick Henry ahead of him. He was great in the second half of the season. He did that with both quarterbacks. It started with Ryan Finley, then it went to Dalton when Dalton got the job back.

He did it without Jonah Williams playing the entire season. You know, so offensive line should be better. I would imagine they addressed that position as well, at least with it, you know, hopefully something on the right side. They just paid their center. So there's a lot to like about Joe Mixon. It's just a matter of, you know, you've talked about this a lot, his numbers, wins and losses. I think he sort of dispelled that this year about this a lot his numbers wins and losses i think he sort of dispelled that this year about how he's performed yeah because he was so good but um he's

not a huge catch guy uh no but he can be four catches you know i don't think he's going to be a six catch guy you know he could be on a good day you know four to five catches on a bad day two to three definitely a guy that was tough to leave out of a top ten at running back. I don't think he's a first-round pick, but, again, like, to you, Joe Mixon is kind of like how I feel about Miles Sanders, I think. Just love Miles. Well, he did a, believe it or not, I don't know, three weeks, final three weeks of the season at some point,

where he said Mixon's not a top 20 pick. And I sort of chastised him a little bit because, you know, you're taking the easy way out by saying he's not a second-round pick. I mean, he's a second-round pick. He said he would take him non-PPR, I think, 22, 23, and I think PPR early round three. Would you take him over Josh Jacobs? I do.

Very similar touches't and he's gonna catch the ball more but as of now it looks that way I think that they'd be smarter to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game but they're very similar it's just yeah I don't really have a strong preference if you that's the thing like I said to Jamie New Year's resolution nobody's gonna tell me I reached on someone if I want someone I'm taking him if you want Joe Mixon in the first round, take him. It's totally justified. There are, I think, of the five of us who I wrote about,

there was seven running backs, I think, that we all agreed on, which were McCaffrey, Saquon, Cook, Zeke, Kamara, Chubb, and Henry, that we all had ranked in the top 10. And then there were three guys, three or four guys that we all differed on. Like for me, I had Aaron Jones, Mixon, and Fournette rounding out my top 10. You had Sanders, Jacobs, and Jones rounding out your top 10. Ben had Jones. He had to have Sanders.

Jones, Sanders, and maybe Mixon for him. I think it was him. Heath didn't have Mixon. He had Fournette. He put Gardner Minshut running back. But he had Fournette. I forget who else it was. But anyway, there was a different guy for almost everyone.

I was surprised, though, the people that left out Mixon. And the other question is, Austin Eckler is not on our radar right now in the first round. If there's no Melvin Gordon, is there any chance we take him early second, late first? Late second. He was. What did he finish in PPR? Like the number four running back or something?

It's not just they're letting Gordon walk. They're going to bring somebody else in because they're not going to go with just Jackson and Eckler as the top two guys. They'll bring in somebody else to compete with Jackson for that. I mean, it's not that crazy, but I think what is interesting, though, is that Aaron Jones is the number two running back in both formats. And he's barely a top ten running back for a lot of us. It's one of the responses I got was, you guys, if this is the ranking for Aaron Jones, then he's going to be a steal. And I think I had him the highest seven. I just don't, I mean, people look at that.

He scored so many touchdowns, so many touchdowns. He just doesn't get the touches. It's plain and simple. All right, so my top 12 is McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb. Oh, yeah, you guys didn't have Chubb in your first round, right? Yeah, I did. Oh, you did?

11. Oh, 11, okay. Chubb, I have seven. Then I have DeAndre Hopkins, eight. Julio Jones, nine. Miles Sanders, 10. Tyreek Hill, 11. And I don't really like Amari Cooper at 12,

but I currently have him at 12. We don't have a Bucs wide receiver. It's just like 12 is so interchangeable. Are you reaching for Sanders? I'm not reaching for Sanders. I'm not. I'm not at all. He's the man.

Let me tell you something about Julio Jones, by the way. 16-game pace with Calvin Ridley. 92 catches. 1,355 yards, five touchdowns on 145 targets. It was his lowest. I have different numbers for points per game, but his points per game was first time under 18 since 2012. It's almost everyone. It just was a bad year for receivers.

I think he can bounce back, but his last three games, he had 45 targets. He had two touchdowns in those games, and they were both in one game at San Francisco when he had 20 targets. But they came without Calvin Ridley. So I think you saw Fuller step up a little bit when he was healthy. You saw Ridley step up, and it did hurt Hopkins, and it did hurt Julio Jones. We still have him in the first round because you don't just go by what happened this current year. He's the one that makes me a little nervous because he's going to be 31.

This is the point where receivers tend to start to dip a little bit. And so you wonder if Ridley's improvement, what they do with Hooper, which is going to be big, he's a free agent, do they upgrade the backfield with maybe a different guy that could be a better pass catcher? Not that Devontae Freeman obviously struggles in that regard, but could they add somebody else that maybe takes away a little bit from Julio? And Ryan's going to be older.

So there are some things you look at and say, okay, it's not going to be a huge decline unless he gets hurt, but it could be a little bit of the this is where the Andre Johnson dip comes in, the Larry Fitzgerald dip comes in. You know, the elite wide receivers. I don't know why I use Andre Johnson, but, you know, he's great. But where the top tier guys start to show some flaws and you wonder if this is when it starts to happen julio i hope not i'm not ranking it that way but wouldn't surprise me and then does calvin really get a huge boost then you think next year's no i don't think really i mean really still has a long way to go i don't think this is um you know the passing of the torch where the second guy becomes the lead guy you know uh like we saw it didn't happen in terms of the touchdowns but you know juju was

better than antonio brown and almost everything else uh their their final year together which antonio can't let go of um but you know i i don't think that's gonna happen yet but it could you know i mean ridley's got to really take a huge leap for that to happen. Yeah. You know, none of us had Lamar Jackson. Where would you take him? I honestly wouldn't take him because I'm not going to take him in the first three rounds. And I think he's going to go in the first three rounds. I just think it's going to be so tough for him to repeat as number one. There hasn't been a quarterback to repeat as number one since, I believe, 2012 with Drew Brees.

Wow. And that's just really scary because Patrick Mahomes did really well last year, and he was good this year. He wasn't number one. Lamar Jackson could be number one again next year. I don't think he's repeating these numbers, so I wouldn't take him. Jamie, what about you? No, he's a late second-round pick.

Same where I was telling people to take Mahomes, but he's not going to make it. He's a first-round pick. I mean, there's nothing we could say, do, we could scream at the top of our lungs. He's going to go in the first round. We'll get into sort of just the running back position in a later podcast, but some trends that have really changed. The last two years, you've had the number one running back in fantasy

be on a mediocre offense. That is really unusual. It was the same guy. It was the same guy. He was basically tied with Saquon Barkley in 2018, and their offenses were basically tied in points scored, but they were around 17th overall. So going into 2019, the number one running back in non-PPR

had been on offenses that ranked 5th, 1st, 6th, 1st, and 2nd in scoring. McCaffrey was not number one in non-PPR last year. I believe it was Gurley. The number one running back in PPR the last five seasons. I don't think so. The number one running back in PPR over the last five seasons. Offenses going into 2019. The offenses were 7th, 1st, 6th, 1st, and 14th in scoring.

It was Christian McCaffrey. This year, McCaffrey was on the 20th-ranked scoring offense. Aaron Jones was the number two running back. He was on the 15th-ranked scoring offense. Also, we finally had a reduction in 50 catch running backs. It's gone from 2014 on from 5 to 8 to 11 to 14 to 16 to 13 this year. Still an important number, but that was less important this year, the catch totals.

For some guys it mattered a lot. For some guys it didn't. It did, but we had four running backs finish in the top 12 with less than 40 catches, which was surprising. I think where Fournette and Kamara would be if they didn't have their catches. No, no, it's very important. It just wasn't like, I keep going back to Derrick Henry. 18 catches for him to be this good

in a normal year, you just wouldn't expect that. You wouldn't expect somebody to be this impactful. Well, if he leads the NFL in rushing, he'll still be up there. Yeah. Yeah, but still. What was he on a per-game basis in PPR? RB7 or 8?

That's why I think there's huge... On per-game basis in PPR? RB7 or 8? You know, that's why I think there's huge... RB5. Per-game? RB4, PPR. No. Derrick Henry? Yep. So, it depends.

Okay. So, in non-decimal scoring, I think he's RB8, but I think he's within half a point of RB4. So, I will give it to you, Ben Schrager. RB4, but I just think there's a ton of bus potential with a guy who doesn't catch 20 passes that's a lot that's a that's not a lot it's not enough well you look back to laguerre blunt was the last guy to be that good without catching passes right and then when he scored a bunch of one yard touchdowns but then what happened we know it's not the same situation but yeah no it's it's it's the same concept all right let's do some news and notes and then we'll

uh get into uh we'll get into DFS for the week, and some emails and some Apple Podcast questions. Dalvin Cook says... What do you mean by playoff challenge? Playoff challenge, yes. Dalvin Cook says he's at full strength. I'm not sure I believe him, but that's fine. I'm sure he is at full strength.

He said something like, no matter what percent I'm at, I'd go out and play. It's just a matter of what his pain tolerance is going to be with the hits that he takes. It's the nature of this injury until he gets significant rest. Maybe he has. I mean, maybe the three weeks off has helped him. Maybe.

Zach Ertz was limited in practice but still not cleared for contact. So it just seems unlikely that he's going to be able to play, but we'll see. Miles Sanders mispracticed. That did like a low-level ankle sprain. They didn't actually practice. It was an estimation. So are we more hopeful for Sanders than Ertz?

I think so. I'm going to guess they both play. J.J. Watt will play, but it doesn't seem like he's going to get his full share of snaps, right? No. And that's important because their run defense is a lot better with him. So I think the Bills still might be able to run the ball, I think, on the Texans. But Watt should be in there on the obvious passing downs. And the Texans are really bad against receiving backs,

and Singletary is going to be on the field for those downs. So I think regardless, Singletary is a nice play this week. Will Fuller making progress, so we're hopeful for him. Tennessee cornerback Adoree Jackson practiced. Looks like they'll get him back this week finally. Freddie Kitchens. I think everybody practiced for them but Adam Humphreys. Okay.

Freddie Kitchens and Todd Monken, their offensive coordinator, were, quote, never on the same page, according to The Athletic. This was kind of an explosive article. I mean, bottom line, dysfunction this year in cleveland oh it should be better chicago fired their offensive are we debating which job would be better the other day yeah spoke to some of our nfl guys they don't think the browns job is attractive at all why because of the owner yeah okay um and that they don't know if baker's really that good do you care about mark halfridgerich being fired, Jamie?

No, because this is the scapegoat. This is, I couldn't get Matt Nagy to work. I mean, Matt Nagy is saying I couldn't get Mitchell Trubisky to work, so this is your fault, and it's your fault, and it's your fault, when it's his fault. By the way, okay, I got some cool stats for you. So according to CBS Sports Research, I'm just reading this verbatim from our website. According to CBS Sports Research, Bill Belichick is 14-13 as a head coach

when facing one of his former assistants or former players. He's 12-13 in the regular season. He's 2-0 in the postseason. The two playoff victories came against Eric Mangini and Bill O'Brien. While 14-13 is still a winning record, it's hardly the type of winning percentage that New Englanders have been accustomed to when speaking about Belichick. In fact, his recent totals are a bit more alarming.

Dating back to just the start of the 2018 season, Belichick has faced O'Brien, Patricia, Vrabel, and Brian Flores, all either former assistants or former players. In that time, the Patriots are 2-4. They've outscored their opponents 136-135, but that's largely thanks to a 43-0 victory over the Dolphins. If you take out that game, former Patriots assistants or players are outproducing Belichick-led teams 135-93 over this recent stretch.

How about that? He's obviously facing— So you're picking the Titans to win? No, but I can't imagine, like, the fact that I feel so— the fact that I feel such little confidence in the Patriots right now is, you know, it's just different. It's because of what you've seen. I mean, they haven't looked good offensively really all season or at least the latter half of the season.

And the defense has shown the flaws that we thought that they could show when they faced some tougher opponents. And Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tannehill's just playing, like, really well. His history in Foxborough is awful. Now, obviously, that came as a member of the Dolphins when the Dolphins were bad.

But it's hard to imagine them losing at home to the Titans. That said, the Titans once went into, with Marcus Mariota, they went into Arrowhead and they beat the Chiefs when everybody thought that was impossible. It was the Alex Smith-led Chiefs. I don't think they're going to lose.

I think the Patriots are going to win. I think the Patriots win. I think the spread is, at least on our site, is four and a half. I took the Titans to cover. I don't think they're going to run away with it. I don't think it's going to be a game that they have in hand late in the game. And as we saw, they allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to drive the length of the field with under two minutes to beat them in a game that they typically don't lose. I did hear somebody say this, which I think is funny, that Belichick is allowing his former assistants to win, so it makes his coaching tree record look better.

But no, those guys know what he likes to do. They know the inner workings of that team, especially the guys recently, like Flores. So we'll see. We'll see how Mike Vrabel does. What scares me a bit about the Patriots, if I'm anyone other than the Patriots, is that after this game, if they win, whoever the Patriots face, they will have already played them. And they are 2-3 against the rest of the field. They beat the Bills twice, but they lost to the Ravens. They lost to the Chiefs.

They lost to the Texans. But do you really want a rematch against Bill Belichick? I don't know. I mean, look, they have the toughest road because they have to go through Arrowhead if everybody holds. Go through Arrowhead and go through Baltimore. I think they're going to beat the Chiefs. As of right now, I think they're going to beat the Chiefs.

Because if they beat them last year, I don't know. It feels right. They should have lost. Those two teams, as good as the Chiefs were last year, they look better this year. They look better defensively. They don't look as good offensive the Chiefs were last year, they look better this year. They look better defensively. They don't look as good offensively.

Look at the numbers. Well, obviously they don't. I don't think it's that much of a fall off based on what they should be able to do. And they're not going to have to put up that many points against this Patriots offense that hasn't been great. Yeah. Here's the other stat I wanted to give. Bill O'Brien 100% tanked. Wanted to lose. Not just lose.

Wanted to lose by double digits in Week 17, and he did. He lost 35-14 to Tennessee. So this is something I found after— You want to lose? I'll tell you why. This is something I found after—who did they—they lost by—oh, after the Broncos game. They lost by double-digit points. So this was from a few weeks ago from Sean Pendergrass of Houston Press.

The Texans are currently 10-1. It's now 11-1 because they rebounded after the Broncos loss. So the Texans are currently now 11-1 in games following double-digit regular season losses that are played while the Texans are still mathematically alive for a post-season birth this data sort eliminates the slew of double digit losses in december 2017 after a watsonless and wattless team was eliminated from the postseason but bill bryan has a great track record of bouncing back after losses particularly double digit losses double digit point losses he tanked big but i think they're gonna to lose. They're a favorite, right?

They are a three-point favorite. I like the Bills in that game, ladies and gentlemen. A lot of people do. They're better. I don't know if they're better. Oh, I do. Well, it starts with quarterback, and I think the Texans have the better quarterback. Everything else, you can make an argument that

the Bills are better maybe outside of the receiving core. I'm not a huge Deshaun Watson guy. I've got to confess. You're starting a team right now. You're taking Josh Allen over Deshaun Watson? Yes. Interesting. I'll take Watson.

I know everybody would. I want to see him. Well, he's actually great in prime time. He kind of shines there. I don't know. I want to see something from him. The Saturday afternoon playoff game is owned by the Texans. Is it?

Every single year. They're in it, but do they win it? No, no, no. Yeah, yeah. Because nobody wants to watch it. I think it's the most intriguing playoff game, though, to be honest with you. Agreed. Yeah?

Ben and I were talking earlier. I just – I'm not feeling – It's not a great slate. Obviously, I'm going to watch every game, and I'm always excited, and I'll love fantasy. Not that great of a slate. Yeah, I just don't know. There's something about Watson. I don't love him.

I don't know. I just don't love him. But he's great for fantasy. Maybe because he dominated the league. He's very good. I don't know if he's like a great. I don't think he's an elite quarterback. So you think Josh Allen's elite then?

No. But I think Josh Allen has a better chance of being elite. You said Michael Thomas wasn't a star until this year and that you don't think Deshaun Watson's elite. I don't think he's elite. I think he's elite for fantasy because of the rushing. I don't think he's an elite quarterback. I will have to send this one to Heath. Oh, God.

Heath thinks that Mariota's better than Tannehill and that Eli Manning's better than Daniel Jones. Because he believes that makes you better. No. So he makes him wrong. That's all. Jason Witten's going to make a decision about his future soon. How many elite quarterbacks are there in the NFL? All right.

Let's do the elite quarterbacks. Uh-huh. Okay. Right now, Mahomes, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson. This is not fantasy. Not fantasy. Elite quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers has – listen, listen, listen.

He has not played like an elite quarterback this year. That's why I didn't have Devontae Adams in my top 12. I'm going to still put Rodgers there, but he is missing throws. He is missing a lot of throws. He is really struggling. He's just not playing that well. He is missing a lot of throws. He is really struggling. He's just not playing that well. He has not had an elite year. I'll say that.

He has not had an elite year. I agree with that. His track record makes Rodgers an elite quarterback, but he 100% has not had an elite year. Who else am I missing? I said Breeze Mahomes and Wilson. Brady's the elite? No. Is Lamar Jackson elite?

Yes. Lamar Jackson's elite. This is not easy to do off the top of your head, you know. Daniel Jones. Deshaun Watson's not elite. I mean, most people would say he is. I don't really think that he's an elite quarterback. And you want to stand by the, I'll take Josh Allen to start a franchise over Deshaun Watson.

Look, I'm telling you, Josh Allen is the next one. I love Josh Allen. I think he's going to be just tremendous. Daniel Jones elite? You know, once upon a time, I was the only one who thought Od Josh Allen. I think he's going to be just tremendous. Daniel Jones elite. You know, once upon a time, I was the only one who thought Odell Beckham was this good. I got heat for saying that he was better than Dez Bryant. People were like jumping all over me.

Dez was really good. Not as good as Beckham. Was that a better career? Dez, but it's a long way from settled. And Rashad Penny had more than just an ACL tear, but Chris Carson is expected back for training camp, Des, but it's a long way from settled. And Rashad Penny had more than just an ACL tear, but Chris Carson is expected back for training camp, and Carson does not need surgery.

That's good news. All right, so let's talk about these games. Let's talk about who we like in DFS. Houston Buffalo, we'll start with that. So which quarterback do you like better? Let's get some prices up here. Start with FanDuel here. We've got Watson at 8100 and josh allen at 7800 it goes breeze at 85 watson 81 wentz 79 wilson 79 josh allen 78 tannahill 78 cousin 76 brady 76 there's not

enough of a price difference to go josh allen over to sean watson unless you're you um there's who would you rank higher this week watson watson even with the you know bills are a lot better than the texans they're a lot better than the texans yes defensively but right he's he's a lot better than aj mccarran and in any sort of dfs are you looking for josh allen's 20.4 and 22 point upside i don't think he has 22 point upside well in four point per passing you know it's all four point for passing touchdown leagues don't think he has 22-point upside. Well, in four-point-per-passing. It's all four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. I mean, he has one game over 25 points this year, and it was against the Dolphins. Yeah, but he scored 25 against the Patriots, right?

He scored—I'll get it right now. Let's take a look at Mr. Josh Allen, future superstar. He's just playing really well. He scored 24 points at New England. He scored 25 points at Dallas. That's what six points for Festive. Six points, yeah. So, no, he doesn't have a super high ceiling.

But I'm not – look, bottom – I don't like starting quarterbacks against the Bills. So I don't want to start Sean Watson in FanDuel or DraftKings. Do you? I wouldn't mind going Watson and then running it back with Singletary. He would not be my favorite quarterback, but of this game, I would take him over Josh Allen. Okay.

So, which running backs? Do we ever start a Texans running back? No. I mean, this is the interesting part of this game because that's the weakness of the Bills' defense is their run defense. Now, that could still be Watson taking advantage of it, but they're a little in the middle but they got much back

uh thank you thank you um devin singletary is on fan duel a tremendous value uh henry camara cook sanders michelle boston scott carlos hy, all more expensive than Devin Singletary. And you've made a great point about the receiving game, Ben. He's a shoo-in. 96% of snaps in Week 16, and then what did we see in Week 17 when none of their starters played? Frank Gore still was heavily involved. They don't care about using Frank Gore.

It's going to be a Singletary game. But he is more expensive comparatively on DraftKings. It's Henry, Cook, Kamara, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary. They forget to throw to him sometimes, which is so frustrating. Now they did a better job toward the end of the season, but it's maddening sometimes what they do. Texans run defense was really bad without J.J. Watt. So you have to ask yourself how much you think he's going to play,

how good is he going to be. I think Singletary is a really good fan dual value. Wide receivers in this game, are we fading Hopkins? He's the second most expensive wide receiver. It's not the smartest play to use him against your Davias White, but he's not horrible. He's a good contrarian play if people are going to shy away from it from that standpoint. We'll see a fuller plays. He's, according to Bill O'Brien, trending in the right direction, but it's an interesting slate with the receivers across the board.

It really is. You have some tough choices to make if you want to use one of the top-tier guys. He would not be the one I would choose, though. Who would? In this game? No, a top-tier. Oh, Michael Thomas. I mean, he's the chalk.

So Thomas is 8,900 on FanDuel, and Hopkins is 8,300. On DraftKings, Thomas is 9,300, and Hopkins is 7,700. So it's harder to get Thomas in your lineup on DraftKings than it is in FanDuel. This is Clemson LSU, by the way, also. Who's, wait, who's? Tredavis White. Oh, Tredavis White. Oh, versus Hopkins.

Okay, I thought you were talking quarterback or something. No. All right, and then Will Fuller. You're talking about the team that does the best against big pass plays. They don't give up. They have the fewest 40-plus yard pass plays allowed, second fewest 20-plus yard pass plays allowed. And a guy, if active, may not play the whole game.

Right. It's the same situation. So this is why I wonder why you would take Watson over Allen. Like Hopkins. I would still take Watson and Hopkins over Allen, Brown, and Beasley, even facing the Bills defense. All right. Because from a.

And that might not be the smartest thing, but that's just what I would do if I'm looking at it where I'm going to spend my money because I still think that there's. I mean, look at the prices for Brown and Beasley. Again, it's not – if you factor in everything, then it's logically better to go with the Bills guys. But I still think in a playoff spot where you need these guys to step up and make plays, we've seen Drew Davis give up some production, Devontae Parker in particular. Hopkins is going to see an uptick in targets. Will Fuller is not there.

I would imagine even across the board, if fuller plays this is uh i'm better than the guy across from me and we're going to win this game with you and me that's probably what hopkins and watson are saying all right do we like a tight ends they're kind of interesting is sneaky but i wouldn't try and play any of them no i, I mean, Aikens had 54 yards in the previous game and then 0, 7, and 49. So you're going to get nothing or high. He's cheap. Take him off the bells. John O'Smith is not cheap, unfortunately.

He's not cheap enough. He's the fourth or fifth most expensive tight end. But they're not like a ton of tight ends. But that's why Josh Perkins, if Zach Ertz is out, could be really good. Or maybe I'm trying to pay up for Jared Cook because we want Saints. And then the DSTs, Bills. For the week or this game? For this game.

For the week. Yeah, let's do it. Which DST do you like this week, guys? I think the Texans are sneaky just from the standpoint of despite the fact that Josh Allen's the next Hall of Famer. I can't wait for Monday's show. I wonder how he's going to do it. I'm's show. I wonder how he's going to do— I'm curious, but I wonder how he's going to do in his first playoff game. You know what I mean?

He could melt down on the road. You never know how long— That's why I have faith in him because I think he really answered the call at Pittsburgh on that Sunday night game. I think he answered the call at Dallas on Thanksgiving. It was sort of a coming-out party for him. He played great. I think he answered it at the Patriots on Saturday.

He almost went into Foxborough and beat them, and that's hard to do even though Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, so that's why I'm starting to really feel it with Josh Allen, but I understand why people aren't. The Texans defense is a little more attractive if J.J. Watt plays, force Josh Allen to throw the ball a little more, force some turnovers, but neither of them are my favorite. So I think John Brown, you know, the numbers haven't been great lately, but he's faced some really good opponents. And he's blown some of those. He has.

Sometimes it's been one catch. He almost had 100 yards against the Steelers, though. So, you know, he's faced Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, New England, some really good opponents, and he's had 53 or fewer yards in those four games, but I don't know. But he scored against Chris Harris. It was his only catch. And he scored against Stephon Gilmore.

It was his only catch. So I feel like they go back a little bit more towards Brown rather than Beasley in this game. You would think. I mean, again, same thing like Hopkins. If I'm Josh Allen, I'm going to probably have some shot plays to John Brown or some ways to get him in space and see what he can do. But there's always touchdown potential for him.

All right, let's go to Tennessee and New England here england here and ben what do you like who do you like in this game i would you start a quarterback in this game i'm not touching the quarterbacks in this game i don't want to touch derrick henry and i don't really want to touch sony michelle i think james white is a value play and edelman is a huge value play yeah edelman's cheap, and also if he's healthy, he's going to be the guy. We've seen it in the playoffs all the time. And he says he's healthy. He says he is. He feels good.

I think Edelman's a great play, and I do like James White. Particularly on DraftKings for Edelman, he's the sixth most expensive receiver. Full PPR. Because James White's not going to do anything running the ball. So if there's touchdown potential from those guys, it's coming from Brady. Right. So Brady's a sneaky play i think i had to choose between james white and i'll tell you one second um adam theelin in on fanduel i think they're the same price i actually went with adam i've had james white in

there and i took him out because james white he has 10 catches combined in his last three games i think we've been overrating him a little bit. But I do also feel like he's kind of a big gamer, you know? Right. But I went with Thielen. I think they'll be chasing points. I think Diggs would get tougher coverage at this point. And I'm hopeful that Thielen is healthier now.

Sat out week 17. We can't forget what Thielen's been for basically two and a half seasons before this injury. He really has been one of the best wide receivers. We don't. So, you know, he was the last guy I put in my lineup. I had 6,200 bucks go out. White, Thielen is kind of a gut feeling. You know, I think white is safer.

But as the number two, I think number two receivers in a catch-up game, a chasing points kind of game, you know, when the number one cornerback is so good, probably going to be more on Diggs. I think Thielen's got a chance there. But I understand White would be safer. And don't forget, now, Janoris Jenkins hopefully is up to speed too. Yeah, it's true.

He's certainly better than Eli Apple. So, Jamie, how do you feel about Derek Henry? And how do you feel about Sonny Michel? Sonny Michel is just too tough to trust. You know, I mean, give him credit. He finished the season with three straight games of 100 total yards or touchdowns. You know, so he's been getting better based on what his numbers were the majority of the year. But I just think that this is not the spot to say, oh, I'm going to go trust Sonny Michel.

You know, so I don't love him. Henry, I think, you know, he's going to be the game plan for Belichick. I don't think he's going to say we're going to take our chances losing to Ryan Tannehill. They're going to say we're going to stop. They'll say we'll take our chances losing to Ryan Tannehill. They're going to try and stop Henry. So it's tough to spend the money for him based on if he doesn't score. Now, that's hard to say because he scores more.

He scores all the time. Their run defense has been really good lately, except one game. They struggled against Joe Mixon. They did pretty well against Zeke. They did well against McCoy. They held Devin Singletary to three yards per carry. So their run defense is playing very well.

And I just don't see how you justify spending $1,300 more on Henry than Kamara. No, $1,100 more than Henry on Kamara and FanDuel and $800 more on Henry than Kamara and DraftKings, which is PPR. So I just don't see how you justify that. Any wide receivers? AJ Brown, no. It's just, you know, why would you again again, take the chance of him versus Gilmore? And he's the one guy that the Patriots have to really worry about. I mean, John Dewe Smith could play well.

Why did I put John Dewe Smith in the other game when we were talking about tight ends? We're just comparing them. I just realized that. Weird. I'm sorry. Yeah. You know, Corey Davis, Tajay Sharp, they can make plays. But, you know, if you're the Patriots, it's stop Henry, stop A.J. Brown,

and then you sort of cripple this offense a little bit if you could take those two guys away. As crazy as it sounds, I don't mind Corey Davis as a cheap play. Just under five targets a game the last four games. You think they take A.J. Brown out with Gilmore. They're not going to be able to run the ball. I think Corey Davis could find the end zone. Obviously don't love him, but he's cheap.

All right, Minnesota, New Orleans, the last three Saints home playoff games, they've all been the last two seasons. They played three games at home. They beat Carolina 31-26. They beat the Eagles 20-14. They lost in overtime to the Rams 26-23, so they haven't blown those opponents out.

They scored 31, 20, and 23 points in those games. They're just playing so well right now, and they're completely rolling. Jamie, do you want a quarterback in this game? Yes. You just pay up for Breeze? Yes. You believe Russell Wilson's more expensive than Breeze on DraftKings? Doesn't make sense.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense. Only 200, but still, it makes no sense. You pay up for Michael Thomas on DraftKings. Look at the price differences, though, on DraftKings. Doesn't matter. Okay. Tough to get him in your though, on DraftKings. Doesn't matter. Okay. Tough to get him in your lineup. No, it's not.

Yeah, much easier on FanDuel. Kamara. How do we feel about Kamara? Still not a ton of touches. Yes. Ben, how do you feel about Kamara? I like him, and I don't mind playing Breeze and Kamara because Kamara's going to catch so many passes that you can play both of them.

Who's a better value? I lied to you before. I did do a lineup on DraftKings a couple days ago, and I have Breeze, Kamara, Thomas Stack. Oh, all right. I'm interested. Can I get the rest of it? Sure. Travis Homer is the other running back.

Beasley and Greg Ward at receiver. Dallas Goddard at tight end. I'm playing Aikens at flex because he needs to buy cheap and hopefully catches a couple passes. And then Texans, DST. What's the price difference Aikens versus perkins and would you go with perkins um i don't know if i'd play goddard and perkins but it's it's something to consider for sure yeah and it would only be if urts is out with perkins i assume perkins is 2,900 on draft kings akins is 2,800 yeah so i would play perkins over akins okay if uh urts is out i have a camara breeze lineup i don't have michael thomas in there i

have james white edelman dk metcalf john brown jared cook johnny smith at flex and the saints dst so you know i don't mind that either because if you get jared cook in there you're not going to want jared cook michael thomas and camara with breeze but one of his past catching weapons and camara is a great way to go that That was a DraftKings lineup. I have Breeze and Michael Thomas on FanDuel. I'll give that lineup in a little bit. Do we like any Vikings? I mean, you like Thielen?

I do like Thielen. I think he's interesting. I like him more as kind of a desperation play, and I like him more on FanDuel than DraftKings. I mean, if you tell me Davin Cook's playing four quarters at what he usually does, I'd play him, but that's just the risk. You just don't know. Yeah.

And how cheap is Madison? Let's find out. Well, we don't know that Madison's going to play. He's expected. He's expected to play, and if Dalvin Cook is limited in any way, we know he'll be on the field. 5,200 on FanDuel, 48 on DraftKings. The only way you're playing Madison is if Dalvin Cook is limited in any way, we know he'll be on the field. 5,200 on field, 48 on draft. The only way you're playing Madison is if you know Cook is going to miss time

because they're going to give Dalvin Cook every touch that they usually do. So it's just I don't think it's worth it. Unless, of course, he's not going to play. I mean, it's only sitting or not sitting. By the way, I think Diggs has like 11 targets in his last two games since Dillon came back, so he's risky, or not sitting. By the way, I think Diggs has like 11 targets in his last two games since Dillon came back. So he's risky, obviously.

Jared Cook is the third most expensive tight end. Would you start Cook or Goddard if Ertz is out? Goddard. I'd play Goddard and go to the Michael Thomas route. What did Goddard do in Week 17? Wasn't great, right? He had an amazing catch. He was solid.

Because I feel like he's been 4 for 65 on 10 targets. I'll take the 10 targets and see what happens. Saints are bad against tight ends. All right, and then let's go to the last game. I kind of feel like this is the toughest one to figure out from a DFS standpoint. What do you think? This is the Seahawks at the Eagles. I think Russell Wilson's worth playing.

We've seen enough from this Eagles defense. I know they've played better of late, but it's still Russell Wilson in a playoff game. I think he's... Look at these prices on FanDuel. Tell me what you like the best. Breeze, 85. Watson, 81. Wentz and Wilson are 79. Josh Allen, 78. I would put Wilson second behind Breeze.

I agree. You talk about low upside for Josh Allen. Russell Wilson in six-point leagues, more than 23 fantasy points once in his last 10 games. He threw 40 passes, 45 passes against the Niners, and he scored 23 points. So the Eagles' defense is confusing because they had a horrible stretch,

and then they've been really good lately. Pass rush has been great, and that's going to be a problem for Russell Wilson. But I think, again, you just look at what the limited options you have available to you. Watson against the Bills could be okay. Josh Allen's first playoff game on the road could be okay. You guys talked about what the ceiling has been for Josh Allen. Russell Wilson's got really a two game sample size now if his running game falling apart the game where it happened was against

arizona and the game without them against san francisco if you tell me just like you said 10 targets for dallas guard you tell me russell wilson's thrown 40 times against the eagles i'll sign up for that yeah no i mean i definitely considered that and then who would you rather pair him with metcalf or lockett uh probably still Lockett just based on the big playability. But the targets in Week 17 were interesting. The fact that Metcalf had 11 and I think Lockett had 7, that kind of tells you, I think, where they're trying to go a little bit more as the season has gone on. Well, but then you go back one week earlier.

And it was a Lockett show. I think they're so close that you should back one week earlier. And it was a locket show. I think that Arizona put Peterson in Metcalf. I think they're so close that you should just save the money. The price is definitely something to consider. Because Metcalf is considerably cheaper. Yeah, and now Malik Turner and Jerron Brown are both hurt. Or David Moore's hurt. I forget which one.

Jerron Brown is hurt. Brown. So you have some probably target consolidation coming to those guys that could help. I think Travis Homer is a great play. Just based on the cost and what he did. Maybe Marshawn Lynch gets a bigger role this week. Do you think he's a great play in FanDuel? Because the catches are what's attractive.

He's like 9 catches, 10 catches in his last two games. Something like that. Like I said, we know who's going in at the goal line. But again, look at the pricing. He's only $100. Singletary had $100 more, but if you are looking to save a couple dollars, if it's, you know, you want to play Singletary and Homer,

and then you can get probably Breeze and Thomas in your lineup that way. So would you rather play Singletary in the Bills defense or Homer in the Seahawks defense? Probably Homer in the Seahawks defense? Probably Homer in the Seahawks defense. Just because while Wentz has been amazing, you just never know. Because he's just got such little weapons. If Ertz is out and Sanders is out, Boston Scott was amazing. But can he do that again?

And we saw, you know that they did a i think the weather was the biggest thing but they they did keep wentz contained a little bit and that was also with dillard playing at right tackle uh when lane johnson was i think it was or no left one of the tackles uh one of the tackles was out lane johnson pretty sure um and so dillard did a nice uh didn't do a good job in that game no he struggled in that game i think it was dillard so let's look at let's look at these kind of like almost punt plays at wide receiver on FanDuel. Will Fuller, Greg Ward, Traquan Smith,

who continues to catch touchdowns, particularly at home with Drew Brees. Muhammad Sanu, Corey Davis, Nikhil Harry, et cetera. Jamie, who do you like in that group? Greg Ward. This is targets. Yeah. 100%.

Greg Ward. Yeah. He's Greg Ward. Yeah. He's pretty good if you need to save some money. No question. Anything else this game? Jacob Hollister. Hollister had a touchdown the first time. You know, I think we've seen enough.

The Eagles defense. Caden Smith had a good game against them, right? Week 17? I don't remember. I don't think he did. Let's find out. I thought he did. I thought he had 80 yards.

He may have. They're okay. I think they're top five against tight ends in terms of fantasy points. Oh, good call. He had 98 yards. That's right. Yeah, eight for 98 on 11. That's what we talked about that in Evan Ingram's future.

It's a big game for Caden Smith. Hollister should have scored against him in the first one. Russell Wilson just completely missed him in the end zone and he's Hollister still scored against the 49ers as well you know getting tackled at the goal line I think the yeah it's true

I don't think he's going to get a ton of targets because Lockett's been getting more lately in that first game against the Eagles if he's thrown 40 times with the guys that are out he'll get 6 Lockett only had 2 targets in the first game and he's thrown 40 times with the guys that are out, he'll get six. Lockett only had two targets in the first game, and he's had seven or more in three straight games. Alright, so let's do

some lineups here. I gave you a DraftKings lineup for me. It was Breeze, Kamara, James White, Edelman, Metcalf, John Brown, Jared Cook, John Newsmith at Flex, and the Saints. And on FanDuel, Breeze, Singletary, and Miles Sanders.

Obviously, he'll be plays. Michael Thomas, DK Metcalf, and John Brown. Jared Cook, Adam Thielen, and the Bills. So for me, Breeze and either Kamara or Michael Thomas are musts. John Brown will be in my lineups. I do like Jared Cook as a third Saint. And then, yeah, James White is interesting, more interesting in PPR. I think Devin Singletary is a really good value. Ben, what are you looking at this week? Exactly what you just said, but hammer the Devin Singletary.

I think that's the key play. And then I think Homer and Seahawks defense is a stack that I'm going with all the time. I think the 67% of snaps last week, I don't think it's going down. Lynch did not impress outside of the red zone carry. I think Homer's going to be a great play with the Seahawks defense. And then the Saints, Strubrees, Kamara, Thomas, get them in the lineup. Okay. Jamie, you got lineups?

I gave you the one on DraftKings, so I'm just doing one on Fandle right now. What do we got so far? We can fill it out together. Russell Wilson, Kamara, Singletary, Thomas, Metcalf, Greg Ward, Hollister. And then I need two more spots. All right. You need a DST and a flex.

Go ahead and pick that DST, and then we'll all flex together. The flex is probably going to be Travis Homer. By the way, while Jamie's filling this out, I saw Uncut Gems yesterday. What did you think? What did you think? It was good. It was – I don't know if this happens to you a lot. Sometimes there are movies, you don't know how you feel about it until like hours later.

And as more time has passed, I've liked it more and more. Because it's such an intense movie that you have to like decompress. Reflect a little bit. Yeah, it's just like nonstop just intensity. So it's good. It's stressful, but it's a really good movie. I recommend it. Uncut Gems, ladies and gentlemen. Did I give you enough time, Jamie?

I went for a run yesterday, Ben. First time running. I had my Noble shoes. It went really well. It was like 7.30 in the morning. Weather was really nice. Nice little breeze. Had some music playing. Some 90s rock, like Spotify mix there. Beautiful day. the morning weather was really nice nice little breeze had some music playing some 90s rock like

spotify mix there um a beautiful day it was good you know it's just good to be able to get outside you were up north i was up terrible up there i didn't want to go on a run exactly back in florida i'll be running all the time how long does it take to pick a flex i'll just let you talk okay what do you got i went with james white james white okay cool. In a vacuum, James White or Travis Homer this week? James White. James White. Okay. Playoff challenge.

So we do it on NFL.com. I do a few different ones. Some private ones. We usually have like an office league on NFL.com, and the way it works is cumulative points throughout the playoffs, and you start like – There are different ones. That one in particular, but yeah, go ahead. All right, but yeah, the cumulative points throughout the playoffs and you start... There are different ones. That one in particular. But yeah, go ahead.

The cumulative points throughout the playoffs and you get bonuses. If you had Drew Brees in your lineup in week one, well, let's take somebody who's not playing. Lamar Jackson. Let's say you're Lamar Jackson. The goal would be three games. If you can get three games out of a guy, that's ideal. Yeah, but

all three games aren't created the same. If you get three games out of a guy, that's ideal. Yeah, but all three games aren't created the same. If you get three games out of Lamar Jackson, you're not getting anything in week one. But in week two, you're getting double his points. In week three, you're getting triple. Well, you're talking about bonuses. I'm just talking about in general. You want to get three games out of your team. The fun part about these playoff challenges is you're not just picking players.

You're picking games. You're trying to figure out who's going to go to the Super Bowl. The biggest thing you've got to do. Yeah. It doesn't matter who's going to win the Super Bowl. out who's going to go to the Super Bowl. The biggest thing you got to do. Yeah. It doesn't matter who's going to win the Super Bowl. You just need who's going to the Super Bowl.

And the Saints are really interesting because how do they do? They win week one assuming they win. How do they do probably at Green Bay? Well, it would be at Green Bay. At Green Bay in week two

in potentially horrible weather, outdoors. I think that's kind of interesting and maybe a trap. And they're so much better than Green Bay, in my opinion. They're so much better. But do they win that game? I think Green Bay stinks.

Not stinks. I think they're the Deshaun Watson of they're good, not great. How do they do in that? Does that scare you off from putting a lot of Saints in your lineup? I think that's the one that you look at and say, I want four games of Drew B drew breeze four games of the saints but i'll take my lumps with a low potential low scoring game in the divisional round because of the weather so that you hope they pull it out because they've got to win that game to provide the value

right and if they do pull it out they could could have a chance to host the NFC Championship game because as the three, if the 49ers get upset. So let's talk about who the 49ers would play. Or not play the winner of the Eagles-Seahawks game. Unless the Vikings beat the Saints. Well, we're assuming the Saints are winning. Yeah, and then they would play. Right. They could lose to the Seahawks.

I don't think they'd lose to the Eagles. But they've played the Seahawks twice. They'd have to beat them three times in one year. They've played two very close games against them. So the Saints. They lost at home. They lost to the Seahawks? They lost in San Francisco.

They just won in Seattle. I thought they won in overtime. Oh, you're right. They lost in overtime. Right. They're one and one. So obviously they could lose to the Seahawks. So the Saints, if they can get by Green Bay in that. Oh, you're right. They lost in overtime. They're 1-1. Obviously, they could lose to the Seahawks. The Saints, if they can get by Green Bay in that

second game, I think we'd have a decent chance. They went toe-to-toe, obviously. It was in New Orleans. That was the surprise game. The 49ers game we're talking about. 49ers Saints. 49ers did lose at home to Atlanta. Let's just talk about it. Let's just shorten this because we're going to run out of time.

Which teams would you target in this playoff challenge scenario? So, I mean, I wrote the story. You can see it on site. For me, I have a Baltimore-New Orleans Super Bowl. So I think you're getting three games out of Baltimore, four games out of New Orleans. There's a lot to like about players on those respective teams. I mean, you know, there's no real receiver that you could say for Baltimore.

I have to have. But I think obviously for the Saints, you know, if you're going to draft players, because there are leagues that you just have to do a draft that you can't change guys, you know, you want to try and get Thomas, Kamara, Breeze, Derek Cook, you know, the four main options, if you believe that that's a team that can advance. If you're just going to take chalk, you know, then you look at San Francisco and Baltimore. But I think, you know, you have to sort of look at the tough games, you know. So if you believe in Kansas City getting by New England and Baltimore, then there's a lot to like about the Chiefs guys. If you believe in maybe Green Bay making a run, there's a lot to

like about Aaron Jones and Devontae Adams. So it comes down to really who you think can get to Miami, who can get to Super Bowl 54. And those are the things you want to gravitate toward. If you're able to get a wildcard team to the Super Bowl, you're going to most likely win. So if you think Philadelphia can make a run, if you think Seattle can make a run, two teams that potentially go back and forth in the first run, the Saints. The AFC is a little bit tougher. Yeah, well, let's do this. Let's talk about every team.

Let's do the Super Bowl-o-meter. Zero to ten, the likelihood you see of them going to the Super Bowl. Baltimore. Ten. Nine. Kansas City. Nine. Seven.

New England. Seven. Four. Yeah, I think I'm like a four or five. I can't believe that. And then the thing is, like, I don't think their offense would be that good anyway. So, I don't know that the fantasy points would be that good. They'd do it with defense.

Who's the four? The Texans. Two. Yeah, they're not going to Super Bowl. Come on, they have a crappy quarterback. The Bills. Two. Two.

And the Titans. One. One. Okay, so 49ers. Eight. Seven. They're really interesting. There's something about them that scares me a little bit

i had a conversation on hq with eric cilius uh this was week 15 i think it was and he he said is it just a matter at this point the one seed in the nfc is the team you want to hit your wagon to just because they're playing at home knowing how green bay does away from lambeau at this point knowing how new orleans does away from the Saints do away from New Orleans. And it's a pretty smart choice just because you said it. The Saints having to go to Lambeau Field in January does not sound appealing to what they typically look like. And then we've seen the Packers now.

The Packers will not win in San Francisco. Well, they got blasted, I think, on every West Coast trip that they've made. The Chargers is the one that stands out. And the Niners. And the Niners. But, you know, I mean, the Chargers was the one that was a little bit alarming. You know, so you look at it, can you trust them there? So if San Francisco gets home field, I think the thing that you worry about is that first game

because Philly right now is hot and Wentz is playing great. And then Seattle's played them so-and-so twice in their building. Philly hasn't beaten anyone, though. I mean, that's the thing. But they're still playing. They're hot. They've beaten the Giants, the Redskins, the Cowboys, who really aren't that good, and the Giants again. You're also still talking about, I mean, well, to be fair, you're giving Josh Allen the same credit for beating Dallas.

And, you know, I think you've got to look at it the same way. No, the Dallas game was really impressive. But that was mostly their defense. But it was very impressive. But if this defense shows up for Philadelphia with the way Wentz is playing right now, they can beat anybody. I'm convinced of that. So, okay. So, the Packers, I don't really think they're that good.

But I do think they're a pretty sneaky Super Bowl play to get there. If San Francisco loses, they're going to the Super Bowl. That's what I'm saying. Right. Because I think they have a – well, but that's – you can't say that because you think that the Saints are going to beat them. If San Francisco loses and they get by the Saints, they're going to 0-0. Yes, they will win the NFC Championship game if they're at home. I still think the Saints are going to win that game, though.

I do, too, but it's kind of, I guess, a contrarian play. And I think Aaron Jones would be the guy to really target. I don't really put up big numbers. Oh, I trust Adams at this point. Yeah, yeah. I do too. But he would face Lattimore. I don't care. I do care because he could have 100 yards.

I don't think he's going to have 180 yards and two touchdowns. But again, it's about the longevity of it. You're talking about maybe a one-game sample size. If he's facing Philly's secondary or Seattle's secondary, even San Francisco's secondary at this point. You get multiple games out of a wide receiver one,

you're happy in the playoff challenge. Sure, yeah. I guess I was just saying I don't know that Rodgers would be the one. If I think the Packers are going to make the Super Bowl, I don't think it's Rodgers I'm going with. I know you don't think he's had an elite season. He hasn't. Statistics have not said he's had an elite season.

He's missing throw after throw after throw. He's playing very well said he's had an elite season. He's still playing very well. Throw after throw after throw. He's playing very well because he's not turning it over. All right, let me ask you this. He is not throwing the ball at all. For the postseason. Crazy. For the postseason, forget fantasy.

You're taking Josh Allen over Aaron Rodgers to win a game? No. No, I'm not that crazy. But playoff challenge, are you taking Aaron Rodgers or whoever your AFC team's quarterback is? Lamar Jackson. Yeah. Yeah, I'm taking Lamar Jackson. Yeah, but I still think, like, I said San Francisco is an 8.

I think Green Bay is an 8. I think New Orleans is a 9. You know, I mean, it would not surprise me. I think the top three teams. Oh, we didn't do this for, okay, we didn't do this for all the teams, right? No. All right, so San Francisco. 7.

8. New Orleans. 9. I'm sorry, 9. Green Bay. 7. Philadelphia. 6. Seven. Philadelphia. Six.

One. They could win the first game. They're not winning three games. Seattle. Six. I have faith in them. Minnesota. Minnesota.

Three. One. No faith in Minnesota, which really isn't fair because they haven't been healthy. I don't think they're healthy now. They they are on the field healthy no but it's not healthy as big as a play but oh they're linebacker at kendrick's um they're pretty healthy though they got the one they got cook right now they're they're fairly healthy they sat out week 17 but yeah they're not gonna they're not gonna win they're out they're out week one give me a break i think again for any playoff challenge

you want to take your chances on who you think is going to advance and that's the biggest part of it and then you know look at your scoring format and how those things work like the one I'm in that's run privately is you can only use a guy once so that matters so you know you want to get the most

bang for your buck in week one and then you have to sort of save guys because you can play super flex in this league so you want to save hopefully two quarterbacks this football that's the biggest key i can't believe how long this show went all right ben give me the apple podcast question or question apple podcast question of the day all right i'm going into my second year of a new keeper league finished third this year i need to keep two players dalvin cook 10th pick overall. Derek Henry, 9th round. Tyreek Hill, 3rd round.

Miles Sanders, 5th round. Jarvis Landry, 16th. That's not close. You're taking Derek Henry in the 9th round. Henry in the 9th is a lock. Miles Sanders, what round? 5th round. That'd be my pick. And Landry's in the 10th?

16th for Landry. So you got 16th for Landry, Sanders in the 5th round. Those are close for me So you got 16th for Landry, Sanders in the fifth round. Those are close for me. I'd go Sanders. The better player is Sanders. I'd like to see who the head coach is for Cleveland before I give a final answer on that, but I'd take Sanders for now.

I'll take Sanders as well. Yeah, throw him back to Alvin Cook. All right. All right, cool. So listen, I wanted to read your emails. I didn't get a chance to today, but I promise we'll get them. If we have to do a big mailbag show at some point, we will. I will read most of the emails that come in uh i hope so anyway on the show but

i want to thank ben schrager and jamie eisenberg and thank you all for listening and watching i'm adam azar 2020 has begun let's see what happens this weekend we'll talk to you on monday