Fantasy Football Today - 01/09: QB Reflections; DFS Advice (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 9, 2020

We've got players we love (2:40) and players we're avoiding (5:45) in DFS this week. Damien Williams will be in our lineups. What about Aaron Jones? And are we paying up for Lamar Jackson this week? We've got also got the latest news (10:00) with Offensive Coordinator hires, more on the DAL offense and injuries to know for this weekend's games (16:25) ... We reflect on the QB position in 2019 (19:40). What takeaways can we apply to 2020? Are we seeing a changing of the guard at QB? Can pocket passers still be great for Fantasy? Who are the late-round picks we'll be most excited about (33:55)? ... More DFS talk as we give some lineup suggestions and discuss each position (39:12). George Kittle might be risky. Deebo Samuel is a great value. Will Fuller is enticing. We're also joined by meteorologist Kevin Roth of RotoGrinders.com for a look at how the weather may affect the games (1:00:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Four games to talk about this upcoming weekend. Dave Richard, which game are you most excited about this weekend? I'm kind of curious to see how the Titans deal with the Ravens and whether or not they can do something to slow them down. It's not the game that I think will be the closest. I think Baltimore is probably going to end up winning big, but I'm interested to see how that looks.

What kind of answer is that? They're going to crush them. That can't be the end. You can only watch one game this weekend. Which one is it? That's not what you asked me. You asked me what game am I most interested in, and that matchup seems interesting to me. Okay, then a new question.

I almost feel like we're just writing off the Titans again, and I think a lot of people did that last week, and look what happened. No, I certainly didn't. I thought they could win. All right, you won't answer the question I want you to answer, so I will bring on Ben Gretsch. No, I'm not giving you the answer that you want me to answer.

Correct, right. Ben Gretsch will. Ben, if you could watch one game this weekend, what is it? It's definitely Kansas City and Houston. I mean, Mahomes versus Deshaun, for me, would be the one that I would watch. But Rodgers versus Wilson would be a good one as well. That's the one that,

if I could only watch one game this weekend, that's the one I would take, would be the Seahawks at the Packers. That's not what you asked me. That's not what I asked you, I guess. If I could only not watch one game this weekend, it would be the Ravens game. The other three games, I'm very excited about.

And you know what? I love watching the Ravens. I've got Lamar Jackson in my FanDuel lineup. I want some Lamar Jackson. Let's talk DFS. Now, the two things that we're talking about today. Well, we'll do some news and notes, some coordinator stuff, and I'll give you the injury updates as we get into the divisional games.

We're also going to look at the quarterback position. We're going to kind of recap what we saw at quarterback. And I'll tell you, the top eight quarterbacks rushed for 200 or more yards. So that's a big theme this year. Very different from last year. Last year was more of a pocket passer year. This year, not so much. Very different. Just things change. So we'll talk about quarterback, look ahead a little bit to 2020. But what we noticed, the busts, the breakouts, what was legit in 2020. And, of course, we'll talk DFS. DFS will be mostly in the second half of the show. Give me, though, a player you like or players you like,

and then we'll talk about ones we don't like just to kick it off a little bit. So, Ben, I'll start with you. DFS, FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever it is, who do you like and then we'll talk about ones we don't like just to kick it off a little bit so ben i'll start with you dfs fanduel draft kings whatever it is who do you like this week well i always get attracted to more contrarian names so i'll lead right off the top with my favorite like off the board play and it's alan lazard he really came on as the wide receiver too for green bay this year i think he went up over 75 snaps in the last few games i think he went up over 75% snaps in the last few games. I think he's like pretty clearly their second best option down the field right now. And he's just not really on the map as much. You don't get a lot of guys like that by, by post-season time that, that the casual fan might not know about. So that's a guy that I think he can sneak into some lineups.

Three quarters of the snaps each of the last three games so that's that's a pretty good call i think dave you know if you want to go with mahomes or jackson especially jackson you really need some discounts and if you want to go with derrick henry or dalvin cook you need some discounts this week and probably you know like davante adele it's hard i think it's a tough week i had a tough time loving my line yeah same. So you need guys like Alan Lazard. I have him in my DraftKings lineup. How about you? Well, and Lazard's a good call just because of the targets on top of the playing time. He has 17 targets in his last two games.

He's caught nine of them. You'd wish that number would be a little bit higher. And he had a 28-yard touchdown against the Lions. I think the Seahawks will be a little bit tougher of a challenge, but you can't judge Seattle's defense based on last week because of how they played and who they played against, obviously. I love the price for Deebo Samuel. I see it on DraftKings. It's cheap.

It's under $5,500, I believe. It might be $5,600. But I think that he's just got a great opportunity to return some high value against the Vikings. I think the weakness of the Vikings' defense right now is their secondary, specifically their corners. And I could see Kyle Shanahan trying to take advantage of that with Sanders and Samuel. But we've seen Debo Samuel come up with three times value in three of his past four games. The price is $5,200 on DraftKings. I think that he's an excellent guy

to put in your lineup when you want somebody who's not going to be super rich. Yep. I have to be both Samuel as well. So the guy that I have in both my FanDuel and my DraftKings lineup, actually, I think I have Samuel in both, but it's Damian Williams because, you know, you want to lead running back. Well, you look on DraftKings, Derrick Henry's 8,200, Dalvin Cook, 8,000, Aaron Jones, 7,,400 Mark Ingram, 6,700. And then there's Damian Williams at 6,000. And it's a similar story on FanDuel. He's the fifth most expensive running back. He's 6,900 bucks.

Derek Henry's 9,600. So I know Ben, Ben Gretz, you gotta be feeling Damian Williams this week. Oh, I mean, definitely him and most are, are the little bit of discount.

RB ones are both at least touchdown favorites at home, Oh, I mean, definitely. Him and Mostert are the little bit of discount RB1s. They're both at least touchdown favorites at home, which is typically a really good sign for a lead running back to hit value and have a big game. I think they're going to be a little bit more popular than even the high-priced guys like Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook, who are both big road dogs. So, yeah, I love Williams. I agree with you.

All right. Dave, who don't you like this week? Who are you fading in DFS? One name that I'm going to fade, let's see. Tyler Lockett makes sense to me as a fade. And I think DK Metcalf has a chance to have a better game. I don't know if he's going to start drawing the type of attention that Lockett has been getting.

We know that Lockett, at least on DraftKings, has been under three times value in seven of his last eight games, and he's still being priced like a top-to-middle-tier wide receiver. And Ben Gretsch, who don't you like? I'll go with Aaron Jones, who I think is a good option, probably in a vacuum a better option being a home favorite than Cook and Henry, who I just mentioned. But I'm concerned about Jamal Williams being back. Jones only played over 65% of the snaps in four games all year.

And all four of those games he hit that were games that Jamal Williams either missed, which was two of them, or left early, which was the other two. He had about 45 more yards from scrimmage per game in that four game sample than his other 12 games definitely a different player when he's only getting about half the snaps which is roughly what i'm expecting with williams back you know i i wonder if i wonder if that happens and jamal williams does get half the snaps but i also wonder if aaron jones getting a week off just has more energy than we've seen from him before and this seattle defense i know they looked okay last week against the eagles without carson wentz for most of that game they allowed multiple touchdowns to running backs in

their previous four games and that's where aaron jones lives he's giving you at least 17 points in draft kings each of his last four games four times value in two of them. I think there's some decent upside with him, at least on DraftKings. I wouldn't shy away from him there. He's playing so well. He's got 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games, 23 carries at Minnesota, 25 at Detroit. Now, Ben obviously mentioned this is with Jamal Williams out. Yeah, I don't know, man.

I just wonder if they're saying, okay, it's time to turn Aaron Jones loose. He's kind of like what the Patriots did last year in their Super Bowl run with Sonny Michel. I'm wondering if the Packers might do that with Aaron Jones and just ride him. They don't have to conserve him anymore, right? Just ride him. He might be their best offensive option right now. I mean, it's funny to say with Aaron Rodgers on the team, but they might be the best version of themselves if they're a power run team behind Aaron Jones. And that might be what they plan on doing, Adam. But I wonder if just game flow is really going to come down to whether or not that comes to fruition. And giving him more work than Jamal Williams, that makes sense. But when you started saying this is the playoffs and they want to let aaron go there's that split second in time before you said jones where i thought you might have said rogers and where aaron rogers you're you're letting you're letting a viper like this guy into the playoffs i know he hasn't played like

himself this year i wonder if there's a chance now for him to to be given the onus of the offense and for Matt LaFleur to say okay big dog this is your time bring us home against Seattle do your thing Aaron Rodgers I don't have him in any of my lineups not yet anyway but I I think there's a chance that we could see Aaron Rodgers potentially take over the offense and I think that would help Aaron Jones as well because he can be a factor in the passing game. We'll get more into DFS later. Should you put Aaron Rodgers in your lineup? If you do go with Rodgers or Russell Wilson,

it's going to make it a lot easier to get a stud running back, stud-wide receivers in your lineup. We'll talk about that. So do either of you have Amazon Alexa? You guys Alexa households? I went on vacation in the hotel room that I stayed in had an Amazon Alexa in it. It's pretty cool, right? Yeah.

Ben, I don't think you have Amazon Alexa. I don't, no. Do you know what it is? I often have to tell you what things are on this show. You know what it is. Like I'm 85 years old. Of course I know what an Alexa is. i yeah i have uh i have friends who have alexis okay good well look a lot of people have amazon alexa and you could say to amazon alexa

you could say play fantasy football today and it'll start playing our podcast so i just want to let y'all know that if you have alexa and you're just sitting in your kitchen or wherever you go hey alex, play fantasy football today. Bam, our podcast is going to come up. So that's pretty cool. Take advantage of that. Let's do some news and notes. Quarterback news.

All right, first of all, Sean Payton said Drew Brees is still playing at a high level and New Orleans also wants to keep Teddy Bridgewater, but you could see the same kind of quarterback room for them next year. That's a lot of money to spend on quarterbacks next year for them. You can't see a scenario where Breeze is not back, right? No.

Unless he retires, but I'd be surprised. You can, Ben? I would say what Dave said, yeah. I think there's a chance that he could decide to hang him up. Well, Tom Brady says he has more to prove, so we should expect to see him in 2020. Kellen Moore is expected to remain the Cowboys offensive coordinator under Mike McCarthy. And McCarthy, Ben, he said the offense will be built around making Dak Prescott successful,

which of course he was this year as a top four quarterback. He was number two, depending on the format. Yeah, I think it was number two and four point, number four and six point. I might have that switched. Yeah, so Ben, what do you make of that if they keep kellen moore uh who was great for dac and but also obviously have mike mccarthy there dave wrote a great piece about this up on the site uh yesterday what mccarthy's impact might be and he and i chatted a lot about this but one of the things that that he noticed in the in the press conference that was pretty interesting was he m was McCarthy was asked about play calling duties and he wouldn't specify. Now, my take on that, and I think both of our

take on that was that it seems like he kind of wants to take that over. And that's something that was always a big storyline when he was in Green Bay. Obviously, saying that he wants to build the offense around Dak is a positive. It's nice to hear. I do think if he starts to push Kellen Moore out, that's probably not great because Kellen Moore in his first year as offensive coordinator had this offense as the top total yardage offense in the NFL. I know a lot of that was some garbage time production and some tougher games and some big blowouts against some weaker teams, but they were very good. They changed to more of a vertical passing game,

and it did improve things quite a bit. So I would like to see Kellen Moore still have a lot of influence on this offense. And I'm hoping that's what we see. I would be stunned if Mike McCarthy – first of all, I would have been stunned if he had said anything other than the offense is going to revolve around Dak because McCarthy fancies himself as a quarterback whisperer type.

He resurrected Favre's career. He helped make Aaron Rodgers who he is. And I think his goal there, and one of the reasons why they hired him in Dallas, was to help make Dak Prescott a more efficient quarterback. And I think we can see that. I think Kellen Moore's creativity meshed with what Mike McCarthy wants to do following his year off of calling plays could end up being very good for the Cowboys offense.

So I'm hoping that Moore stays. I doubt that Moore will call the plays. I think McCarthy, who once relinquished plays, and then got so furious over Tom Clements calling plays that he took the job back with four weeks to play. And then he said he would never, ever do do that again I would imagine that McCarthy will call the shots here he's about a 60 percent of the time pass caller it's going to be good for Dak I don't know if he's going to get close to 600 pass attempts like he did last year but 550 could

be in the in the hunt and just a good offense around him it's really a great spot for McCarthy to do his thing and be a better play caller and for Dak to resume being a good fantasy quarterback and just to follow up on what we talked about a couple of days ago we don't think that this is bad for Zeke because you know if no if he's going to build an offense all right this isn't I I think hearing that comment I'm going to build the offense around Dak, I don't think that should be construed as Dak's going to throw the ball all the time. And when you go and you look back at the running backs that Mike McCarthy dealt with in Green Bay, there was nobody even close. No disrespect to Eddie Lacy, but no one even close to Ezekiel Elliott, talent-wise, skill set-wise.

He's a different breed. And he talked about Zeke. He said he's going to give Zeke the ball a lot. I don't have the exact quote. I'm paraphrasing. But Ezekiel Elliott is going to get a lot of work in this offense, and I think he gets 50 catches for the third year in a row too. All right.

Cowboys were 10th in the NFL in pass attempts this year. I think they had the second best passing game in the NFL. They were really good. And still, Zeke had a very good fantasy season. Two more notes here. Ben, Matt Rule, new Panthers coach. He didn't commit or rule out Cam Newton in 2020. And Ron Rivera didn't exactly commit to Dwayne Haskins.

They could draft a quarterback, I suppose. They're also going to hire Scott Turner as their offensive coordinator. So what's your take on those situations, Cam Newton, Dwayne Haskins? Yeah, I mean, I think they're tough reads. They're going to have to kind of wait and see on both. I think Newton obviously is going to come down to health. If he's healthy, he's pretty clearly their best option. We didn't see a lot from Kyle Allen to suggest that he's ready to lead the team

or Will Greer, the small sample we got late. And Greer's a guy that I liked as a prospect, but we didn't really see a lot to suggest that he's ready to lead the team in 2020. They could also potentially draft another new quarterback. And maybe they will, but they, I think, would be well-served to still go with Cam while they groom that draft pick um as long as cam's healthy but you know that's where we don't really know what if cam's body's breaking down cam's cap

value for 2020 ranks 14th among quarterbacks in the nfl so he's actually kind of a bargain provided that he can play football and stay in the pocket and and do what you know it's going to be asked of him to do we don't know if the team's going to ask him to run less. We've been down that road before with him. There's a lot of variables there. I would be a little surprised if the Redskins drafted, say, Tua in the draft with the number two overall pick. They'd have to figure that he's just a perfect fit

for what Scott Turner's going to do. Scott Turner is the son of Norv Turner, so it's an assumption, but it's probably going to be the same type of offense that Norv's been running his whole life. That's usually a pretty good prolific one. Maybe Haskins can do it. Probably Tua could do it. It really just comes down to how the Redskins feel about who the better fit is for that offense. All right, let's get into the divisional games and the injuries. We got Mark Andrews and Travis Kelsey. Andrews has an ankle issue. Kelsey has a sore knee. Dave, do you think that's enough to fade them in DFS this week?

I don't think you have to. My guess is that by the time the injury reports come out, they'll either be off it or they'll be questionable, but it'll look like they'll play. I'm not worried about them like I am Mark Ingram. Okay, that was my next question. Ben, Mark Ingram's got the calf injury. I think he's a pretty good price if he were fully healthy. I'd be excited about him. He's been so good this year, but I'm a little nervous about using him if he plays. How about you? Yeah, it's tricky because if they do pull away late, like Dave said, something we've seen from Baltimore all year is that they are really happy to just go to Gus Edwards and use the other backs. Ingram, there's several games this year where Ingram didn't play much in the second half. So that would be the concern. And I think Edwards has a little

bit of salary-saving appeal because of that. More more news so do we know jamal williams he's expected to play where they talked about that will fuller's status is uncertain i do like his price if he does play yeah but can you trust him do you really i i guess he's just one of a handful of those boom bust type plays yeah you start in a tournament i don't know if i'd like him as much in a cash game stefan diggs is sick, and Adam Thielen hurt his ankle, and now they are priced very similarly, whereas last week he had a little bit of a Thielen discount. Not so much this week.

Dave, should we just avoid the Vikings wide receivers this week? I am. Thielen, he got a cut on his ankle. I don't think it's going to be something that costs him the game. We're just going to have to wait and see whether or not he practices throughout the remainder of the week. Diggs has an illness. Mike Zimmer was optimistic that he would play.

Diggs just hasn't been good. His price tag this week, $5,600. He's given you three times that value on DraftKings only once in his last eight games. Very hard to trust against a 49er secondary that's getting healthier and going to be pretty good it's this is a tough game for minnesota oh yeah san francisco's defense is

the whole thing is getting healthier than minnesota yeah minnesota's pretty healthy too uh so they were counted out last week and i wonder if they're counted out this week and if they should be because i you know i think think New Orleans is better than San Francisco. This game will come down to how the 49ers offense operates. If the 49ers offense can put points on the board, it's going to be an easy win for them. But if they give the game away like the Saints did, the Vikings will go right in there and win.

Speaking of which, the Vikings will be without one of their cornerbacks, Mackenzie Alexander. The Packers, they need Kenny Clark, their defensive tackle. I don't know if they need him against the Seahawks, but they could use him. Very good player. He's got a back issue. And how about this stat?

Ryan Tannehill became one of four quarterbacks to pass for fewer than 75 yards while attempting at least 15 passes in a playoff win, according to ESPN stats and information. Tannehill had one of the worst games ever for a winning quarterback in the playoffs at New England, and now he's at Baltimore. More on that later. Also, after I'm done with Dave and Ben,

I'm going to have Kevin Roth come on for an audio-only portion. You might be watching this on video on youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today, but at the very end of the show, I'll have Kevin Roth. He's a meteorologist. He's going to join me just for a few minutes to talk about the weather in this weekend's games and if it should affect any of your lineups. But that'll be the very end of the show. So let's talk quarterback.

As I mentioned, in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, each of the top eight quarterbacks rushed for more than 200 yards. The top three quarterbacks, Jackson, Watson, and Wilson, they rushed for 342 or more yards. You go to four point per passing touchdown leagues, it's very similar. Each of the top nine quarterbacks rushed for more than 200 yards.

Ben, give me an overall takeaway on quarterback in 2019. Well, I think that's a big one. I mean, there's no denying those numbers. Obviously the running ability of your fantasy quarterback, it was never more important than it was in 2019. The, the other one that I'm looking at is the whole late round quarterback strategy, right? So it's every year we do this. We, we talked about Patrick Mahomes this off season as the superstar number one quarterback we're going to do it next year with Lamar Jackson but if we look back four of the last

past five seasons the NFL MVP has been a quarterback that was a late rounder in in fantasy football who came out of nowhere and had a really breakout season it was Lamar this this year or I don't know if they've announced that yet but i think we're pretty confident it's pretty much gonna be all right yeah and then mahomes last year 2017 that didn't apply 2016 it was the matt ryan year and 2015 it was cam newton all of those guys are drafted at least quarterback 10 or later uh matt ryan was quarterback newton was 10 matt ryan was 16 mahomes was 15 lamar was 14 so these are guys that we're not even taking as quarterback once in drafts and i we can all we

can talk about the position and make our best guesses we're all trying to figure out who these quarterbacks are but it's you look at those years it was hard we we knew cam newton had upside way back in 2015 we knew lamar jackson had upside this past offseason we knew mahomes did last offseason but there were also concerns and that's just it's hard to handicap when that team's going to be the breakout team that year no one really thought the panthers are going to go to the super bowl that year or the falcons the next year with matt ryan they were an upside team but it's just a reminder to keep in mind that there are going to be teams that surprise next year no matter how hard we try to pinpoint who those quarterbacks are. And it's OK to wait and try to hit a home run on those guys.

But only one person is going to have the number one quarterback. You know, I want to know how many of the top, let's say, 10 were not drafted as top 10 quarterbacks. You know what I mean? But but this year. Yeah, no, I was just. Yeah, good. I have some other good names. I mean, this year, Lamar, Jameis and Dak were all the top ones. Right. Last year it was Mahomes, but it was also Ben Roethlisberger, a late round name. 2017, it wasn't the the MVP, the MVP wasn't that guy. But Kirk Cousins was a top five name and Alex Smith had a big year that year.

And then you go back to 2016, you had the Matt Ryan year. I don't think there was another name at the top there. But 2015 with newton you also had blake bortles having a top three year we've seen guys have these spike seasons from late rounds where they're not even as good as the mvp but i it is interesting that the overall you know top uh season in several of these years has been a late round guy yeah but but right but this year in particular was just really upside down. I mean, if you just look at the top 12 quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jameis, Mahomes, Allen, Wentz, Rogers, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan. I don't know if I'm out of, out of names yet. Then Tom Brady, uh, you know, David,

it was, it was not only about these Russian quarterbacks, but I think it was also about Andrew Luck retiring. Aaron Rodgers not really playing that well. Tom Brady having a horrible second half. Ben Roethlisberger getting hurt. Drew Brees was one of the elite quarterbacks, but he got hurt and he missed too much time. Phillip Rivers was awful.

So, you know, are we seeing a changing of the guard? Are we seeing a fluky year? Because, you know, 2018 was a much more conventional year where you had your top 12 in 2018 were Mahomes, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Luck, Watson, Goff, Wilson, Breeze, Rogers, Rivers, Cousins, Brady. Much more conventional passers. What do you make of the current trend? Is this a trend or is this a one-year outlier I guess of these like younger more rushing quarterbacks taking over I don't know if it's necessarily about rushing specifically but we are talking about young quarterbacks Mahomes last year Lamar this year Dak this year their their strengths are being implemented in their offenses and it's leading to really good numbers and these are guys that are being put in systems that and it's leading to really good numbers and these are guys that are being put in systems that they're familiar with from their college days i think the influence from college into the nfl is larger now than maybe it's ever been before in the history

of the game and i think we could continue to see it so things that you've heard about like rpos and zone reads and spread offenses and and even new stuff that's coming out. You know, the pistol, you know, once upon a time was a big deal. Now everybody's doing it. You're going to continue to see things that come out of the college game evolve into the pro game with the quarterbacks that succeeded in those systems doing so in the NFL. And I think that that's what you're going to certainly try and capitalize on in draft day. What quarterbacks are in systems that they know really well and that they thrived in in college or already in the pros?

And it just bells go off when I say that. And I think about Kyler Murray. And it's one of the reasons why I love Kyler Murray. And he finishes a top 10 quarterback this year, believe it or not uh and and i that's one of the reasons why i think he's going to end up being somebody that people are just going to climb other over other fantasy managers for on draft day the other point i wanted to make is i i this was a weird year for quarterbacks now obviously we know about the studs like jackson dack russell wilson was qb3 aaron rogers was qb7 i just want to let that hang out there for a second what do you have are you sure about that i'm that's what i have in front of me but what you have i have him as qb10 i am

as 10 okay i'll double check my numbers and see but what i'm looking at it has them yeah it that's the other thing is that there is a huge glob of quarterbacks that scored between 285 and 320 fantasy points. Rodgers is at the top of that group. So, okay, so here's what I have. Looking at CBS Sports, six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston. That's your top five. Then there's kind of a step down to Patrick Mahomes at six

and then Josh Allen at seven, who's almost tied with Patrick Mahomes. Then at eight, you've got Wentz, Rogers, and Kyler Murray, who are all within six fantasy points. I feel like Rogers might be eight. I don't know how he would be seven

because that's where I have Josh Allen, who's considerably ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Okay. Okay, fine. Strike my comment from the record, and I'll go double-check that. Maybe I got my numbers from a different league. Still top 12. Kind of can't believe that.

But, like, bad. But he just didn't play well. You know, he had some huge games. He had, like, four or five huge games, but not a reliable player for the number eight quarterback in fantasy. No way. No, no. And we need to see more consistency from everybody.

Once upon a time, 30 passing touchdowns used to be a big number. Three of the past four years, we've had only, we've had three to five quarterbacks reach 30 passing touchdowns. There were only four this year. And what's interesting is Lamar Jackson, you might not realize this, Lamar Jackson actually led the NFL in passing touchdowns. So, you know, he had such a great year, but it wasn't just his rushing. He led the NFL in passing touchdowns. Ben, let's talk about breakout performers and what was legit. So obviously Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott threw for about more than a

thousand more yards than he had thrown before. Those those were the two biggest breakouts i'd say uh how legit do you think those performances are jackson finishing as qb1 and prescott you know pretty close to qb2 but officially qb4 in six point leagues yeah i think both those guys are are kind of here to stay and i agree with what both both of you were saying about kind of the changing of the guard at the position i'm not going to be drafting probably ever again tom brady or philip rivers or drew breeze you know whichever of them are back i just those guys are all very much on the downside of their career they're well into their 40s i am i'd probably throw ben roethlisberger into that group as well if he comes back even though i i do think he has a little bit more you know passing yardage upside probably than than those other guys but i i'm i'm looking at lamar and dac and

kyler murray and uh baker mayfield who i like for a bounce back year as guys that i want to be looking at in 2020 but yeah i i think lamar is absolutely here to stay his rushing floor gives him his rushing production gives him such a high floor it also gives him the massive ceiling dac i'm optimistic about. I mean, I think he has good weapons. He showed a lot as a passer this year, and we should be optimistic about him going forward as well. Dave, what do you think about Jameis Winston?

He was QB5. He may not even have a starting job next year. Oh, I bet he has a starting job next year. He had a ton of games with 300 yards and a bunch of touchdowns. So the interceptions stink i think the bucks really don't have a choice but to use one of the tags on them i think they'll be scared to give them a mega rich deal and they're going to see if they can try and cut down on the turnovers but if he stays in tampa bay it's a great spot for him there's just a lot of weapons around him to take advantage of

they can certainly improve the offensive line. I just don't know how much he can really change. I think he can come down from 30 interceptions, but he could still have 20 next year. The thing that would scare me the most is if Jameis stays in Tampa and they also draft a quarterback. They spend a round two or a round three pick on someone like Jalen Hurts or something like that that would be that would be concerning because then that means they've got a plan b

for the weeks where jamis doesn't get his act together and i'm sure something like that could happen and that would make me nervous to draft jamis winston in fact you almost think that it's gonna happen especially if they tag him because then they have him for one year, and then they can move on from him. They can ditch his interception-throwing butt and go with a younger guy that won't do that. So Arians is going to put on his shroud like Emperor Palpatine, and soon I'll have a new quarterback.

He'll say that, but he'll say it in his rambunctious way. I don't really get the reference. I mean, I know it's Star Wars. Yeah, because you're not a Star Wars fan. Ben, are you a Star Wars fan? What's going on? Yeah, I'm not a huge fan, but I went and saw the new movie, and I definitely got the reference.

I'm surprised Adam, who's always giving me crap for not being in on a cultural thing, is sitting here saying he doesn't get an Emperor Palpatine reference. That's pretty bad. Do you know who Darth Vader is? Do you know who Darth Vader is? I think I know. I think I know who Darth Vader is.

Pretty sure I do. He's the guy who goes, Lone Star! Yeah, so Jameis led the NFL in pass attempts. Ben, that's a Spaceballs reference. Spaceballs was an 80s movie with Mel Brooks. Jameis Winston led the NFL in pass attempts. Ohballs was an 80s movie with Mel Brooks. Jameis Winston led the NFL in pass attempts.

Oh, wow. All right. I'm impressed. If they bring David Johnson over, they upgrade their running game. I think that could hurt Jameis Winston as well. Ben, let me throw it to you for the guys who struggled this year. And it's mostly pocket passes. I mean, Baker Mayfield is one of the biggest busts in football.

Jared Goff led the NFL. He was tied with Jameis for the most pass attempts in football, and he was pretty crappy this year. I don't even think he was a top 15 quarterback. Aaron Rodgers struggled. Phil Rivers. Who do you think can bounce back? Give me a bounce back candidate or maybe two or three or whatever for 2020. Yeah, the number one for me is Baker. I will say real quick on golf too, though. Early in the year, we felt like a lot of teams were matching what New England did in the Super Bowl. And we felt like he was – McVay's offense was figured out from what the Patriots did. Later in the year, they got some things going through Tyler Higbee. And I think Sean McVay over an offseason to reflect on that, we'll find ways to improve this passing offense. And he has a lot of potential to bounce back as well. But Baker for me is the guy in 2020 that I think is the potential late round QB that could

be the overall QB one. I think almost all of their problems were related to their coaching staff. You hear about just so many problems, but one of the big ones for me was Todd Monk, the offensive coordinator, who was a big reason we were all so excited about this offense. There were reports at the end of you know, he was never calling anyone out, but they just got more and more dejected. It was very clear he did not have a voice in there. And it was pretty much all Freddie Kitchens trying to do this himself. I don't believe that Freddie Kitchens did a very good job with that. I don't think the scheme was good. Mayfield, we saw very early on, was holding the ball way too long, especially with an offensive line that they need to address this offseason. But we get him in a system, or with a head coach, we don't know who that is yet, but in a system that will actually help him with some quick reads and some easy throws, help him, teach him to get through reads and get through down to a check down.

He had a really hard time on some key plays early in the season getting to his check down, just throwing to a running back that was wide open at times. To me, a lot of that is on coaching with a young quarterback. I still think Baker Mayfield has plenty of physical talent. I think he's also, you know, also to blame for some of these things, but you get a coach in there that will actually work with him. I think there's, this guy's the limit for this offense and for him to bounce back. I agree on Baker. The one concern I have with with baker and this is just off the top of my head is that there were a ton of plays where i think he melted down in the pocket where i don't think

he did that as much as a rookie so the offensive line will be a huge factor and who who the new coaches there will be a big factor as well uh i'm curious to see what the next step is for daniel jones and you you think about running quarterbacks. Daniel Jones did a little bit of that this year. And I wonder if Daniel Jones can take the next step in New York. We know Joe Judge is the new head coach. There's already talk that Jason Garrett could be the offensive coordinator. I don't know if I love that because we know that Jason Garrett is a play caller.

Look at Dak's numbers. They were okay until this year. And then Kellen Moore took over, and he was great. I wonder if the change in playbooks and Jason Garrett and the conservative nature could hurt Daniel Jones, or Jason Garrett can say,

you know what? I know what I did wrong in Dallas. I haven't called plays in a while. I want to try and be a head coach again in the NFL. I need to start showing that I can evolve, and he can let Daniel Jones cut loose. Because we know know that the Giants offensive line, they're like Cleveland. They've got some issues there. But the rest of that offense has got some talent.

And I think Daniel Jones has a live arm. And I'd like to see Daniel Jones be put in a position where he can throw the ball out. And if that defense doesn't improve a lot this offseason, he's going to have to throw a lot because they're going to be chasing points. So Jones is another quarterback that could be a sneaky guy to draft late on draft day. Okay. And if there are any other names that come to you as quarterbacks

who could really break out next year or just bounce back, like Aaron Rodgers is pretty interesting because he's going to be a borderline top 10 quarterback, I think, in drafts. And his rushing total way down this year, 183 rushing yards. This is usually a guy who gets you 260 or so. He's been about 260 or more in each of his last eight seasons with 15 or 16 games, down to 183. So that's bad. Meanwhile, four straight seasons where he's averaged 7 to 7.4 yards per attempt, which is like it's fine but it's not it's not elite by any means his completion rate has dropped three straight seasons

62 if you just look on paper you are not talking about an elite quarterback but we know who aaron rogers is they need desperately another receiver on that team just one just one they they need a They need a new tight end if they want to try and exploit that. Or they get a lot out of Jay Sternberger next year. And they definitely need multiple new receivers there. Rodgers missed a couple of throws this year, too. Many, many throws. Many. Okay, fine.

He missed many throws. I was trying to be a little nice and get the benefit of the doubt. He did. Okay. He did. But his receiver certainly didn't help him either. So I want to see what happens there. And I wonder if Matt LaFleur tries to spread his wings a little bit more next year and say,

okay, this year we leaned really heavily on the run. Maybe they kind of had to just because they didn't have anything at wide receiver, but they still have Aaron Rodgers and if they still have confidence in his arm they should just let him do his thing and find some receivers to go along with him to try and rejuvenate him kind of like Brett Favre needed to be rejuvenated late in his career the other quarterback that came to my mind is Sam Darnold and I wonder if you kind of write off 2019 for him because of the mono issue that knocked him out and he was up and down toward the end of the season but he had some

really good games and he had some really good moments don't know if robbie anderson's going to be back in new york it sounds like robbie wants out it looks like adam gaze is going to stay in that continuity should help him it's an offense that could be decent next year i mean a lot of moving parts there we don't know if levion's gonna stay but donald is there a worse is there a worst is there a worst coach is there a worst coach for quarterback i mean for offensive production he is the freddie kitchens freddie kitchens i was gonna yeah kitchens i think was worse but i was gonna ask is continuity with adam gaze actually a positive I'm not sure. I kind of wish that he would have just gotten fired and they could have started over with someone.

But on Rodgers, I'm probably going to be out on him too. When he was at his peak, Adam noted it. He would add some rushing value and he had the elite passing efficiency. There's multiple elements here that we haven't seen either of, or we've seen the rushing decline and we have not seen the efficiency. Maybe he dave said gets back to pass and a little bit better next year i don't think the running's coming back i don't see qb1 upside him anymore in the rest of his career that's fair to say and as for donald he did have a stretch in the second half of the qb1 for aaron rogers you do well wait wait sometimes people say qb1 meaning like the number one quarterback that's what i meant ben right okay that's what I meant. That's what you meant, Ben.

Right? Yeah, that's what I meant because he was the QB1 for like five seasons in a row, taking out the one year that he was injured with the collarbone. I mean, he was literally either the one or the two for five seasons in a row or something like that. What would it take for you to believe that Aaron Rodgers could be a QB5, a top five guy? What would it take? It would take a massive improvement at receiver for me to even think about that. Because he's not going to get the rushing work. So he's got to have the efficient passing line again.

And you're right. He needs better pass catchers to do that. Yeah. That's going to wrap it up. It's going to put a little bow on it. You know, based on the mock drafts that we just did this week, I'm going to have a lot of Josh Allen because he went super late. Ryan Tannehill could be trendy. So we'll see what he does against Baltimore and what kind of taste that leaves in fantasy owners' mouths

as we get into 2020. But we got to talk about DFS here. And our favorite play is this week. So, you know, I don't know if we need to break down all the games, but let's, you know, you guys have lineups you want to share? We'll start with that. Sure. I've got one for DraftKings.

Well, let me start with this. Oh, okay. Who's the quarterback you want? The quarterback I want or the quarterback I'm settling for? The quarterback I want is Lamar Jackson. The problem is that if I go with Lamar Jackson, I've got to go really cheap everywhere else I'm having a hard time building a lineup that I'm confident in with LJ aid is my

quarterback I how do you like this lineup it's a fan to a lineup it's half PPR Lamar Jackson his lineup really bad yeah that's all this is yeah yeah yeah here's what i'm doing yeah uh lamar jackson damian williams raheem mostert tyreek hill will fuller who will become marquise brown if he doesn't play debo samuel mark andrews emmanuel sanders and the 49ers dst that sounds like a tournament lineup to the max. I wouldn't run that in a 50-50 with your money. But, I mean, the upside is there. You've got the wide receivers that have that type of boom-bust potential, and they're inexpensive, and that allows you to go with Lamar Jackson, who should be minimum 30 points.

So I see what you're doing with it and that's that's pretty much what you have to do to try and strike it rich in a tournament ben how great is my lineup your lineup's good uh i you know i i was listening to the names and i liked most of the plays i'm it sounded pretty heavily correlated with a lot of 49ers, right? And then obviously a lot of Ravens. Yeah. Because you have Debo and Sanders. No, I don't have Kittle. I have Mark Andrews and Mostert. I have Mostert, Debo, and Emmanuel Sanders.

And Emmanuel Sanders can always have a good game. He still gets the targets, and then he shows up with one of those big games every now and then. So he's much more of a tournament play. So I guess my criticism would be, well, if you like Debo and you like Emmanuel Sanders, why not go with Garoppolo as your quarterback and then spend up somewhere else? Maybe get Will Fuller slash Hollywood Brown out of there and put in a receiver that's a lot more reliable.

There's no real way that both Debo and Emmanuel Sanders and Mostert all hit value. I mean, that's a scenario where the 49ers scored 30-plus points, right? Or maybe even 40 and just blew out Minnesota. Then you want Garoppolo. Right. Right. Okay. All right.

So here's another option. You keep Damian Williams and Mostert. You keep Tyreek Hill and Debo Samuel and Mark Andrews. You keep the 49ers DST. I'm going to keep Will Fuller in there for now because I think if he plays at 5,600, I really want him. You keep Tyreek Hill and Debo Samuel and Mark Andrews. You keep the 49ers DST. I'm going to keep Will Fuller in there for now because I think if he plays at 5,600, I really want him. He almost got three touchdowns last time he played at Kansas City. Okay, so now I've replaced Lamar Jackson with Patrick Mahomes.

And for my flex, I have a lot of money to spend. I got 6,800 bucks. I can go with Stefan Diggs. I probably won't. I can go with Tyler Lockett. I like won't. I'd go with Tyler Lockett. I like Tyler Lockett. He's gotten six to eight targets in four straight games. I can go with, I think it would actually only be Tyler Lockett.

So I can upgrade from Emmanuel Sanders to Tyler Lockett. So the question is, which combo do you like better? Lamar Jackson and Emmanuel Sanders or Patrick Mahomes and Tyler Lockett? I'd rather have the Jackson-Sanders combo. Me too. Because you're getting that excitement of Lamar Jackson and the potential. And Tyler Lockett does not get me fired up right now. I don't believe he's got a chance.

I think this could be a game. Pete Carroll talked about Marshawn Lynch getting more work this week, and we know that the Packers' run defense has had its troubles this year. What if beast mode gets going this week? That would be really bad for Tyler Lockett for sure. My hot take on the quarterbacks is Patrick Mahomes is going to outscore Lamar Jackson in a vacuum. It doesn't even matter that he's cheaper. We're all forgetting about Patrick Mahomes' upside.

He had an injury season we went back to I went back to their last game and it was uh week six or seven and I went back and read my stealing signals recap of it and it was interesting because I noted then that he aggravated his ankle injury early in that game for the second time in three games we were forgetting that he had ankle injuries all early in the season because then he dislocated his kneecap. And that's the injury that we are all kind of remembering. I'm sure some of you might, might remember better than I do,

but I forgot about the ankle injuries a little bit. They were bad in that game. And if you go back and look at it, they only had the ball for about 20 minutes, but it was a fluky game. A lot of penalties on both sides. Houston had seven drives of nine plus plays those drives managed uh totaled over 38 minutes of game clock almost two-thirds of the game on seven really long

drives both teams had more than 10 penalties mahomes threw an interception on a play that was um widely criticized where he thought he had a free play they picked up the flag travis kelsey was basically tackled so that was a really weird game houston went into kc and won i think we're gonna see a lot of revenge that was also tyreek hill's return i mean we forget that tyreek hill was injured so now now kansas city's had some time to get healthy damian williams is in place now as their lead back tyreek hill is in place and healthy i think they're gonna just absolutely shred Houston's past defense, which isn't good. And I think we're going to see a Patrick Mahomes,

300 and 350 yard for touchdown game that I don't. Oh God. I'd love to see that. Cause that's who I have in my lineup on draft Kings. I think he he's got the easiest matchup of any quarterback this week. He just doesn't have the rushing upside to support his number. Like Lamar Jackson does. So if you're going to spend a lot on a quarterback and you just can number like Lamar Jackson does. So if you're going to spend a lot on a quarterback and you just can't afford Lamar, you go with Mahomes.

And I do think Mahomes has a chance at a very nice game. Both of them will do well, but you spend down a little bit to get the matchup with Mahomes against Houston. Yeah. Now, the Kansas City run defense is still not great, but it seems to be better than it was when they faced the Texans. Can they keep Carlos Hyde in check because the Texans and other teams have been able to run the ball successfully and keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes. I got to ask though, how do you feel about Deshaun Watson?

Because he is a step down in price from both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes and it's not easy to go to Arrowhead uh we know that but he did play pretty well in that game if I recall so he's actually a bigger discount on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel but how do you feel about Deshaun Watson this week I'm okay with him I think I'd rather just spend up for Mahomes slash Jackson like I don't want to land on Deshaun Watson I don't want to go above him or below him he's been under three times value in two of his past three games he's given you about 19 points on DraftKings in four of his past five I do think this is a game where Houston's gonna have to throw the football they they can't ride Carlos Hyde to a victory that

just doesn't make a lot of sense and hyde hasn't been amazing to begin with so this it could be a duke johnson game and i i think deshaun push comes shove we saw last week he's a gamer he'll step up when when the team needs him and it's tough of a matchup as it as it is may be. I do think he can come through with good numbers, just not necessarily great numbers. Can he get you three times value? That would be 20 points on DraftKings. I think it's possible. I think I'd rather just have Mahomes given the price differential.

On a small slate like this, I'm not necessarily looking at three times value. I'm looking at who has the potential to be the highest scoring quarterback. And I think, Dave, you were talking right into what I'm thinking is Deshaun Watson's upside, which is he is a huge gamer. He plays better when they're down, when his back's against the wall. And the stats actually back that up. But it's also something that we all know just from watching him. I think his ceiling is very high with Will Fuller back. If Mahomes has the type of game I had,

and this turns into a bit of a shootout that I mentioned, and this turns into a bit of a shootout, I think he can add a lot of stats late. The note I wanted to give on Fuller earlier, both times he came back from missing games this year, he played 90% or more of the snaps in his first game back. Now, I'm not guaranteeing that will happen. Those are both hamstring injuries. This is a groin injury. But it is interesting that they seem to hold him out until he was ready to go 90% or more of the snaps. Okay, so we got to finish up on quarterbacks. We got about 10 minutes left in the show here. So just tell me if you're not going to play one of the big three quarterbacks, Ben, who's a cheaper quarterback that you think could be really good this week?

I mean, I, you know, I like Wilson. I, I will go with Kirk Cousins as like a really contrarian one. I think he might be the lowest owned quarterback. And that's the reason I'm saying it. He's a, he's a very contrarian option for big tournaments. I think Cousins is a really streaky player. I've always thought that about him. And there might be some potential that he builds some confidence on, on what they did last week and has a really good game again this week. You remember the, you like that season. He was very good in Washington, helped them make the playoffs that year and went onto a huge streak. I think he has a little bit of like Eli Manning or Nick Foles playoff run potential, but be prepared to lose all your

money. If you use that in a tournament, it's, it's a, it's a large field option. If you ever put Eli Manning and Nick Fals in the same sentence again you are off the show all right go ahead dave who's your who's your guy your love race guy in a in a large field in a tournament i'd go with garoppolo because i think there's what what but that the 49ers win this game by gashing the Vikings with the run? There's a chance it happens. It could be in the 40% chance realm, range, whatever. I think there's room here for Garoppolo to put up decent numbers, maybe even good numbers.

I don't know if it's going to be like the game he had against the Saints about a month ago, but I think that Jimmy Garoppolo, if you're going to go cheap at quarterback, he's the one that carries a lot of upside and and all he needs to get you if he gets his 17 points on draft kings that's that's three times value right there it's not a whole lot okay let's skip running back and wide receiver for now and knock out tight end and dst which dst do you like this week dave i i kind of like the way that Minnesota's been producing and I know this sounds silly because I just got done suggesting Jimmy Garoppolo as a you know a sneaky

high upside type of tournament play they've had at least eight fantasy points five of their past six games and that's all you need for them so if they can get to Garoppolo three times three sacks a turnover on top of that. Maybe they hold San Francisco to under 30 points and they don't have the game where Mostert and Debo and Emmanuel Sanders go off like you've gotten your FanDuel lineup at them. I think that there are a decent punt play when you're talking about defenses this week. You just changed my lineup. I just went down from San Francisco to Minnesota and I upgraded from Mark Andrews to Travis Kelsey.

Thank you. Much appreciated. There you go. Wait, wait, now you have three 49ers and the Vikings defense in the same lineup. Adam, let's play ahead.

Yes. That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense, but I think in this scenario, I think in a four-game slate, you can have dead spots on your team, right? If you get great, great players, you can stink at defense. If you don't think there's going to be that big of a difference between the Niners and the Vikings defensively, it makes sense to go from Andrews to Kelsey.

Obviously, Andrews could be great, but also he could have three targets. Kelsey should be awesome. This comes down to what type of a game you're playing. If it's you versus me head-to-head, yes, you can get away with a couple of dead spots. If you're trying to win a million bucks this week, you can't have that.

The million-dollar lineup will not have any dead spots. Garoppolo's a little turnover-prone. Oh, yeah. No, we're jacks. Right, sure. And that's the other side of it. That's why I think you can get eight or nine points out of the Vikings' defense this week.

It's not asking a lot. 49ers can still score 21 points on them, and the Vikings can still score nine points on DraftKings. Both of these things can happen. The 21 points thing is a key. I mean, weird things can happen on small slates and it's okay. Way more than it is in a bigger regular season slate to play one of your players against the defense that he's facing.

You should not play three of your players on one team against the defense because you're, there's just almost no, they would have to have two return touchdowns. I think probably because they also have to give up 30 points for all your offensive players to produce. So it's a really challenging way to thread that needle. Okay, new lineup.

We're going to take out Emmanuel Sanders. This is impossible. It's a tough week. This is a very tough week. I know. That's why I think I have to – this sucks. This is why you've. This is a very tough week. I know. That's why I think I have to... This sucks. This is why you've got to go get Alan Lazard. You've got to take Ben up on his suggestion.

I did. You know what? I've got to get rid of Lamar Jackson. I'm sorry. We're going to Patrick Mahomes now. We're saving $800. We're going to go Patrick Mahomes. Let's get the 49ers defense back in there. You're so excited to share this lineup,

and your old lineup's going to end up winning. You're so excited to share it. We've changed the whole thing. I'm in a lot of trouble here, guys. I've got to figure out a new lineup. So how about tight end? What do we do with tight end this week? I'm only interested in the big three, Kelsey, Kittle, and Andrews.

Now, Kittle has a really tough matchup. The Vikings, and you might say he's matchup proof, he's matchup proof. Well, the Vikings give up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Kittle faced the team that gives up the second fewest points to tight ends. That was Baltimore. He had two catches for 17 yards in Week 13. They have faced, the Vikings have faced, Evan Ingram, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelsey, Jared Cook.

All four of those guys had between 42 and 62 yards and no touchdowns. They did give up big games in weeks one and three to Hooper and Waller. Since then, really, really tough matchup for tight ends. I don't think I want to play Kittle. I think I want Kelsey or Andrews. Andrews is a bit of a discount. Do you guys agree? Disagree?

What do you think? It makes me want to start Debo Samuel even more, just because knowing that the Vikings do a good job of scheming away tight ends with their linebackers and their safeties i kind of like rudolph if adam thielen ends up well if adam thielen doesn't play then you gotta love rudolph he's been giving you good nut games uh for the six matchups that he's played without thielen this year when thielen either was out or left very early I I also think that there's a chance that Rudolph can be kind of a check down option for for Minnesota because the Vikings I know this might sound crazy to you maybe they have a hard time

getting their run game going with Dalvin Cook against the 49ers and the 49ers run defense they've had a couple of um bad spots leading up to this game but they had a week off and i think they're pretty much healed up i think kwan alexander has a chance to play it makes me wonder if kirk cousins push comes to shove and he's got to throw the ball a little bit he leans on the check down to rudolph and his price is cheap so if i'm gonna if i'm gonna punt at tight end that's the direction I'm going to go. Well, are you punting it? I've been going way too long.

So we got like five minutes left. I did punt at tight end. Yes, I did. All right. Ben, running back. Hold on. Let me get running back from you. Do you want Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones or Dalvin Cook?

Do you want the high end guys? I want to pay down more if I can. If Ingram's healthy, he's definitely in consideration, but he's tough. But I think Damian and Mostert are good salary-saving options on the slate, and you can pay up for guys like Tyreek Hill and some of the top tight ends. I will play some of the higher-priced guys, but I want to pay down. What about Marshawn Lynch? They said they're going to use him more.

Packers have struggled against the run. He's probably not going to catch the ball. Travis Homer, on the other hand, look, he had the two games with five or six catches. And then last week he was very uninvolved, but they were winning pretty much the whole game or as a close game. Whereas the two previous games, they lost to Arizona. They lost San Francisco in a very close game, but they were coming from behind. David, maybe the game script's better for Homer and PPR to get those five catches. Would you go with a Seahawks running back? I wouldn't plan on it. And I think Lynch is cheaper than Homer.

I know he is on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he's more expensive by 500. Okay. So if I'm going to go with one, it's going to be, oh, Marshawn is more expensive than Homer on FanDuel by 500. I wonder if Pete Carroll's statement on Marshawn Lynch had something to do with them not being happy with what Homer gave them last week. But you don't want to play them, right?

I'm not going to begin setting my lineup with the Seahawks running back. Williams and Mostert, to echo what Ben said, seem like the best values. Are there any other guys that really stand out? I mean, Jamal Williams at 5,100 is interesting. Obviously, if Mark Ingram's out, Gus Edwards is going to be a slam dunk for everyone. But what if Ingram plays? What about Gus Edwards then, Ben? I still think he's an option.

Yeah, we talked about that. He still plays plays and he still gets eight to ten carries he's been an efficient runner all year and if ingram is playing but we get an indication that he's not 100 especially in an outcome where the ravens end up winning by a couple of touchdowns i would expect edwards to end up leading the team in rushes i don't think they would push ingram in the second half if the Ravens pull away. So Edwards is very much in play in that scenario. I like that call. Wide receiver, Dave.

Oh, okay. Sure. Sorry. Let's go to wide receiver. I know I'm rushing, but we do have a hard out today, and I apologize for that. Devontae Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyree Kill, they're the three most expensive. Do you want one of them, two of them? Who do you like?

I don't hate Adams, who's giving you at least 22 PPR or slash DraftKings points. They're the three most expensive. Do you want one of them, two of them? Who do you like? I don't hate Adams, who's given you at least 22 PPR or slash DraftKings points over his past three against Seattle. I think that Aaron Rodgers, when he does throw, this is who he's going to. The targets are there, and he seems the safest of those three receivers. I love him. I love him. I like all of them actually then i like and the price differential at least on draft kings it's he's 200 more than hill and 400 more than hopkins so if you if you're thinking oh i'm going to be sneaky and go with deandre hopkins well

you're not saving that much money doing so i'd rather just take the safe play with adams i like hopkins the lowest of the three. I like Adams and Hill more. And that's partly because I expect Fuller to come back. And I like Fuller as more of a contrarian play. I like DK Metcalf, but Dave mentioned earlier he wasn't a big fan of Lockett. Lockett's now cheaper on both sites. And I think there's a little bit of we're kind of overlooking Lockett at this point. So I think he's an interesting contrarian option as well in the slate and then sammy watkins is another one if my homes goes off

we might finally see sammy watkins have a decent game no one's gonna play him no i think i think watkins and aj brown are the two tournament receivers to take a long look at because we know with brown he's got the potential to take a short pass and go to the house, and his price isn't terribly expensive. And Watkins, we think he can still do that. We just haven't seen it since week one. But, yeah, if Mahomes is going to have a big game, Watkins is going to see a lot of single coverage. Kelsey isn't 100%.

You can make the case that Watkins is a good tournament play. A.J. Brown on DraftKings, I mean, he's less expensive than Lockett, than Thielen, than Metcalf. But he's not on Fandula. Right, he's not. But the Ravens are not this team that just completely shuts down wide receivers. You can have success against them. If you think that the Ravens are going to have a lead, I think Ryan Tannehill is going to throw more than 15 passes.

So, you know, Brown is really, really interesting. Here we go. We got to end the show. Here it is. Sorry. The final lineup. Patrick Mahomes, Damian Williams, Raheem Mostert, Tyree Kill, Will Fuller, Debo Samuel, Travis Kelsey, Alan Lazard, and the San Francisco DST with $700 remaining.

That lineup is going to win a tournament on FanDuel. I am going to retire. This is my last show. For Ben, for Dave, I'm Adam. I'm going to bring on Kevin Roth in just a minute. Thanks for watching the video portion. We'll have Kevin Roth to talk weather right after this. Metro links and cross links are reminding everyone to be careful

as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe.

And you need to know about the weather for the big games this weekend. We bring on Kevin Roth. He is an old friend of the program. We've had him on before. He's great. You can follow him on Twitter at KevinRothWX. And you can read his column. He'll tell you about how to find

his column on the web. Kevin, welcome back. Why can't we play all the games in San Francisco this week? Wouldn't that just be easier? It would be a little nicer, but honestly, even San Francisco is a little bit worth watching here um as we get later into the year you start to see weather become more and more of a factor you get these big strong cold fronts so you know we've got some temperatures some winds some rain no snow

unfortunately but all in all it's it's a pretty exciting weekend so i think we kind of start breaking it down so just tell us before we get into the weather, how we can follow you and find your content. Yeah, you mentioned that the Twitter is at Kevin Roth WX. And I'm an actual meteorologist, not just a guy playing one. But I focus on sports and I keep updated sports weather on rotogrinders.com. And whether it's, you know, NFL, MLB, college football, whatever it is, if it's and whether it's you know nfl mlb college football whatever it is if it's sports and it's weather uh check me out i've got the info you need rotogrinders.com and it's really useful i already read what you've got right now as of thursday morning but things are going to change so where's the the biggest what are you looking at i guess most closely i think the

ravens one is the one I'm watching the most, and I'll get to that, but I like to build into the drama. So how about we start with Green Bay? We've got temperatures like around 20 there. Yeah, that's like a hot summer's day in this time of year in Green Bay, no? Right, so that's actually what I wanted to discuss is that people see 20 degrees, they think,

oh, wow, this is, you know, it's sub freezing. It's well below freezing. But the cold isn't as important as most people think. I was looking up some numbers here in 31 similar weather gains in Green Bay, similar temperature, similar winds and it's light winds. We've seen the average score drop by one percent. Wow. You see these really cold temperatures and people freak out, but it really does not have a huge impact on overall scoring.

So for fantasy football reasons, I would not worry about it. That's great. That is great to know. And I will confidently have Devontae Adams in my DFS lineups. All right, so we're going to build the drama. That was step one. What's step two? What's the middle of the story?

Yeah, I think kind of the middle here is San Francisco, and you mentioned it. It's not that it's going to be storming or rainy or all that terrible, but we should see about a 15-mile-per-hour sustained wind gusts up to 20. This is borderline. I'm more worried if the sustained wins are 20, but we've got Gus up to 20. I've seen about a 10% drop in passing yards in similar weather games, so it is not ideal,

but we're only talking about maybe a couple really deep throws or a couple really long field goals that are going to be impacted by the weather there. It is certainly not every play and every throw. So in case you haven't figured it out, that means the good weather is in the Chiefs game, apparently. It is. And if this game, the Chiefs game,

had been played on Saturday instead of Sunday, it would have been a snow game. It would have been really interesting. But as it turns out, that game is going to be fine, and it leaves us with just the Ravens game. And I think that's the fun one. Okay. Titans at Ravens Saturday night, 8.15 p.m. Eastern.

Ravens are 9.5-point favorites, and the total is 46.5 as we speak right now. What's the weather situation there? All right, so there's a cold front coming through on Saturday night and into Sunday morning, and when you get a cold front, that means the winds are going to pick up. It means you've got a good chance of rain, obviously temperature dropping. The more I look at this, the more I think that front is going to come just after the game. And so the way I have it now, I've got it at about a 10 to 15 mile per hour sustained wind, gusts over 20, some light rain, but not anything too heavy.

I've seen a 7% decrease to scoring in similar weather games, so it's not huge. But the big caveat here is if this front moves up a few hours and if it gets here during the game, then those winds are going to jump. Then we're going to deal with the heavy rain. So for now, I think it comes just after. But as you said, this is Thursday morning. We're talking about a game on Saturday night. I would not be shocked if the timing of this front does change. So the key here is for now, don't freak out. Don't make any crazy adjustments. But this is the game to watch because if the timing is off just a few hours, we could see significant impacts here. And that's why you've got to follow weather all the way up to right before kickoff. Don't just look at it on Wednesday and decide, oh, everything looks fine.

That never works. Right. You know what's funny about this game, Tennessee and Baltimore, these two teams attempt the fewest passes in the NFL. Yeah, these are two teams that love to run it, exactly. Generally, I would think, okay, well, this is great for the better running team. Both of these teams are great on the ground and want to do that. So I don't even know how much the bad weather will impact it.

That's a great point. Yeah. Kevin, thank you for the info. Much appreciated. Thanks for coming on. Hey, always good to be on. Thanks for having me. At Kevin Roth WX, and he is a meteorologist.

You get a lot of people talking about whether or not they're meteorologists. Kevin knows what he's talking about. He's helped us out throughout the season. If you've been following him on Twitter or following me on Twitter, I've retweeted a lot of stuff from him, and it's very, very useful. And you can read his stuff on rotogrinders.com. All right, that's it for today's show. We will talk to you on Monday with a recap of everything we saw over the weekend

and our thoughts on running backs in 2019. Talk to you then.