Fantasy Football Today - 01/14: RB Reflections; Diggs vs. Thielen Debate (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 14, 2020

Today we're looking back at the RB position in 2019 which had a lot of Round 1 busts, but also a lot of elite players. How would we sum up the RB position in just a few sentences (3:05)? What did thos...e Round 1 busts teach us about drafting RBs? We kick the show off with some RB analysis before giving it a more thorough look later ... Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence (11:15), Heath's defense of his selections for the All-Decade Team (18:00) with Christian McCaffrey drawing some scrutiny, plus news and notes (26:00) and a good Stefon Diggs vs. Adam Thielen debate (31:40) ... More RB thoughts (37:35) to finish the show. Sleepers, breakouts and busts. The importance of catches. The importance of being on a good offense. And of course we discuss Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry and so many more ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:18 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Today we talk running backs on Fantasy Football Today, as opposed to all of our other shows where we never talk about running backs, right? But this time we're going to talk about running backs for most of the show. Looking back at the position in 2019, what did we learn? What takeaways can we take away? Well said there, Adam. And also, Heath is back! Heath, you're back! When the heck was the last time we spoke to you, Heath Cummings? Welcome back! I don't remember the last time I spoke to you heath cummings welcome back i don't remember the last time i spoke to you which was really really nice i feel very rested um it would have been sometime week 17 you've not talked to me since the playoffs started for sure and yeah it was a good uh good two-week hiatus welcome back you know
Starting point is 00:02:00 it wasn't as fun to criticize your terrible all-decade team without you on the show. You know what's funny, though? I don't even want to debate whether my team is terrible. Just why you think my team is terrible when you have half of the same players, including one who you wouldn't have even had if you hadn't seen the statistic I provided when I picked him. You know, there could be – I'll get Dave and Ben Grinch out in a moment.
Starting point is 00:02:26 You had such a good team, but the Larry Fitzgerald pick just ruined it. I mean, I think that was it. And also Christian McCaffrey, that's so weak. So Fitzgerald, McCaffrey had two spots out of what, like seven people out of seven spots? There were eight. So 25% bad. I have no defense
Starting point is 00:02:46 of Larry Fitzgerald other than the one that I gave that I assume you read on the podcast last time. I've got a defense built for Christian McCaffrey that is going to change your mind by the time this podcast is over. All right. Dave Richard, good morning. Good morning, Adam. How is Zoe? How's the cat?
Starting point is 00:03:02 Oh, see, you know, Dave said I missed yesterday's show because my cat is sick. You know, you shouldn't joke about that because one day she might be sick and it won't be funny, Dave Richard. I know, I know. Ben Gretsch. Ben is here. What's up, Ben Gretsch? What is going on? I'm looking at these all-decade teams and I don't't put Calvin Johnson in because he was the wide receiver one in ADP at least for pretty much at least the first half of the decade. I would say half the decade.
Starting point is 00:03:32 Once upon a time, we talked about whether or not Calvin Johnson was the best wide receiver to ever play in the National Football League. We had a debate of Calvin Johnson versus Jerry Rice. It was a long time ago. But at the time, Calvin Johnson was dominating. That seems pretty silly now, though, doesn't it? It kind of does now. But who knows if Calvin never had gotten hurt toward the end of his career
Starting point is 00:03:52 and kept playing a little longer, he might have been the number one guy. Yeah. And yeah, you know what? That's why Heath's team is really bad. So we'll get into that. Sum up the running back position in one to three sentences a weird task to start the show ben gretch sum up the running back position in one to three sentences yeah i'll say there there was 15 backs who caught 45 passes and top the top four in ppr were all in
Starting point is 00:04:19 that group derrick henry was fifth and and it's kind of that big outlier but i don't want to draw too many conclusions from that eight of the top 10 were all from that 15-player sample. You want guys that catch passes and PPR. using their running back in the passing game and it could be a league-wide thing moving forward and that would make me excited and i think it's going to be a not like super deep like you're not going to be able to get a stud running back in round four but i think you're going to see good running backs go into round two and if people just aren't sold on the non michael thomas wide receivers in round one they're going to take running backs then. Did you purposefully use ands and buts instead of pauses? So that one long sentence would be one long sentence. That's how it's done.
Starting point is 00:05:11 I think there was a semicolon in there if I'm not mistaken. I use semicolons when I write. The only constant at running back is change that continues. And I think the window for their production is getting even shorter. And I would say that, okay, here's my one sentence, or two sentences. Six of the top seven non-quarterbacks in PPR are running backs this year. What else is there to say? I mean, that to me tells you why you chase running backs.
Starting point is 00:05:39 They could just dominate your leagues more than anyone else. Just look at the top. Look at round one in CBS ADP. Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey, Zeke, James Conner, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson. I think you could argue there are five busts out of those seven. Round two was Chubb, Gurley, Mixon, Cook, Fournette. That's better. But I think you could argue five busts there out of the seven running backs in around one i also also think it's important just to point out what you did there because yes
Starting point is 00:06:10 six of the top seven in ppr were running backs six of the top 12 were also running backs um the next five players were wide receivers and there was a difference oh i want to i want to make another argument on what he just did he said six out of the top seven skill position players were running backs and then went on to say and said that's why you chase running backs and then went on to say that five of the seven in the first round were bus which means that some of those running backs weren't actually guys that we were chasing they went later that's true i don't know what that's true no i thought you chased them throughout the draft you don't just chase them in round one. I mean, I know that, Ben, you always talk about the dead zone,
Starting point is 00:06:48 which was a really interesting point that you brought up. But you've got to get a lot of running backs because they could have the most impact on your team. That was the point I was trying to make. Not necessarily the ones we take earliest, but the running backs in general. You get that running back that pops. You get that running back that gets a ton of touches,
Starting point is 00:07:04 a ton of catches,, ton of touchdowns. They have more impact on your fantasy team than anyone else. That was my point. Sure. The Aaron Joneses and Derrick Henrys and I guess Austin Eckler, he finishes the top five in PPR running back. So those types of players, those are the ones you've got to weed out and find.
Starting point is 00:07:22 So you're saying we should go wide receiver, wide receiver and draft those guys this year? It's a possible, well, if you know who they're going to be, and find. So you're saying we should go wide receiver, wide receiver, and draft those guys this year? It's a possible – well, if you know who they're going to be, of course, but you're not going to know. I think receiver, receiver could be a tough task this year. I'm looking forward to it. Well, you never shy away from tough tasks, see?
Starting point is 00:07:39 So, you know, you talk, Ben, about the catches. I actually thought that this year kind of bucked the trend a little bit because in each of the previous two seasons, 2017 and 2018, we did not have a top five running back with less than 50 catches. This year we had Derrick Henry. I think we had four running backs in the top 12 that had less
Starting point is 00:07:58 than 40 catches. And that was really surprising, Ben. So I actually thought... And we finally, after going up like four years in a row in terms of the number of running backs who caught 50 passes, we went down a little bit this year. We went five, eight, 11, 14, 16. Those are the 50 catch running backs in the last five seasons going into 2019. And then we went down to 13 this year, which is the lowest in three seasons. You mentioned 45 catches. I always use 50, whatever 50 whatever but catch so the huge takeaway for me catching the ball and the quality of offense didn't matter as much this year uh ben what would your you know what do you say about that gretch
Starting point is 00:08:39 well i mean yeah the cutoff you use is you know it, it's relevant to Aaron Jones, who had 49 catches and was right up there at the top of the list. I think using 50 just cuts out Jones, and that's kind of silly. But if you do use 50, there's only 13 players who caught 50 balls. So when you say six out of the top 10 didn't do it, I mean, are our expectations that those 13 players finished literally one through 13? Because that's a very small sample. 50 catches for a running back is a very, very good season. are our expectations that those 13 players finished literally one through 13? Because that's a very small sample. 50 catches for a running back is a very, very good season. And I will note that of those six out of four of 12 that you said,
Starting point is 00:09:14 I think it was four of 12. So I would flip that the other way and say, under 40, four of 12 or under 40. So I did not, because I noticed the Aaron Jones at 49, which is why I didn't include him in there. So I'm talking about Derek Henry, Nick Chubb at 36 catches. Mark Ingram had 26 catches. Chris Carson at 37 catches.
Starting point is 00:09:30 All those guys finished as top 12 running backs in PPR. You go top 15, you got Joe Mixon and Todd Gurley with 35 and 31 catches. So it was a strange year in that sense. It was a little bit of a departure from previous years where the catches didn't, they still matter, but not as much as they did in 17 and 18 i just real quick want to add it's it's important to note that you're using a rb12 or rb15 cutoff look at where these guys specifically finished derrick henry was a monster rb5 nick chubb rb8 and then everyone else is outside the top 10 there are b11 12 13 14 these are the guys that you're mentioning those are are not elite seasons. Well, I have Derek Henry.
Starting point is 00:10:05 He was two. Was he five? Yeah. It's so close, though, with Henry. But you're right. He was, what was he, RB five in PPR? He was RB two in non-PPR. And yeah, he was five in PPR.
Starting point is 00:10:20 All right. So we'll get back to running backs in a little bit. We got to go through some news and notes. We got to talk a little bit about last night's college football game, which was really crappy. Yeah, boring. Was it boring? Was it crappy? It was just non-competitive.
Starting point is 00:10:33 It was fine. It was non-competitive. A few things to promote. Leave in our Apple podcast reviews your best fantasy loser punishments. We'd love to know what you made your league mates do or what you had to do for losing your league, for being the worst player in your league. If you're not familiar with the 24 hours in Waffle House thing, you guys familiar with this, guys?
Starting point is 00:10:52 Yeah. Reading the tweets about it is incredible. It comes from Cyrus. Cyrus had to, right, he finished last in his league. He had to spend 24 hours in a waffle house for each waffle that he ate he got to subtract one hour from his stay in the waffle house and you just read the thread of of his stay at waffle house and uh it's very entertaining it's very funny and and in an interesting punishment as well i wonder if that's something
Starting point is 00:11:23 that could catch on and waffle House can be the official punishment restaurant of fantasy football. Oh, yeah. Well, that wouldn't be such a bad thing. What a slogan. The official punishment restaurant of fantasy football. I mean, if that doesn't get you up in the morning to take your family out to a delicious breakfast,
Starting point is 00:11:42 I don't know what does. So tell us the punishment, the best punishments in your league. And also it's a great time to listen to the cover three podcast because, you know, you want to hear that reaction on Joe Burrow's game, Joe Burrow's season. And he's obviously going to be the number one pick Joe bangle and listen to
Starting point is 00:11:58 the cover three podcast. You can get a complete list of our podcast at CBS sports.com slash podcast came across this cool stat alvin camara has had exactly 81 catches in all three of his nfl seasons how about that guys 81 yeah there you go there's your stat and then i did want to talk about last night because here's this twitter poll i got wrong i got so wrong i answered this but no i wasn't the only one uh this came from the CBS Sports account. If Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow were both eligible for the NFL draft,
Starting point is 00:12:29 who would you draft number one overall? So I voted Trevor Lawrence, and I voted right around kickoff. And I think at that point Trevor Lawrence had like 52% of the vote. By the end of it, Joe Burrow had 54% of the vote. And there are thousands of people voting here. So people were sway% of the vote. There are thousands of people voting here. So people were swayed by the performance. I don't know when they closed the poll, but it was after the game started, I'm pretty sure. How good is Joe Burrow? I could not believe. I mean, this guy, all season long, you've seen it. He makes amazing pinpoint throws down the field, contested throws.
Starting point is 00:13:03 I'm blown away by how good this guy was. And it's fantasy relevant, obviously, because he's going to be a Bengal next year. And he just, he arguably completed the greatest season in college football history for a quarterback. And he just looks so NFL ready and so good. I think this is really difficult because he was arguably the greatest quarterback in college football history. But when he was Trevor Lawrence's age, he was arguably the greatest quarterback in college football history but when he was trevor lawrence's age he was a backup like trevor lawrence is what four three or four years younger than he is and so the fact that lawrence is doing this at this age makes me want to pick lawrence um i think it's very difficult i'd probably pick lawrence i think i would too but
Starting point is 00:13:40 that's not to take anything away from joe bur. He could be an impact player right away in 2020. Think about the Bengals and all the offense that they already have there. And I think Burrow can mesh with them pretty quickly. It's just a matter of how easily he can pick up the playbook and how that offensive line can protect him. But I'm actually optimistic about a Bengals quarterback. It's been a long time since I felt this way. Burrow's so interesting because he was so unquestionably amazing, right?
Starting point is 00:14:11 But he took such a step forward this season. He's older than Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson just had arguably the best fantasy season by a quarterback in the NFL. Imagine if Lamar Jackson was still in college this season, what he might have done. So it's pretty fascinating to me I think Burrow is extremely good he shows all the traits but he's very old because of his transfer uh to to finally broken out and played at this level I think he absolutely deserves to be the number one pick but I do think that's a an extremely important note that he's brought up and
Starting point is 00:14:39 Trevor Lawrence is now playing two national title games uh he's only through his true sophomore season he's not even draft eligible yet. I mean, this guy has a really high ceiling as well. That's a good point. And also, Joe Burrow had the best offensive line in the country. It was named the best offensive line in the country. That's a huge factor. The receivers are great.
Starting point is 00:14:58 And just so we have it out there, Adam, Burrow's 23. He just turned 23 in December. Trevor Lawrence is 20 20 he turned 20 last october trevor lawrence was born oh my god four months before i started my job my tenure at cbs sports that's that's crazy that makes me feel pretty i pretty pretty old i think I have a kid older than Trevor Lawrence. When's your kid's birthday? August of 99? Yeah. Your daughter?
Starting point is 00:15:32 Yeah, your daughter's older than Trevor Lawrence. I could be Trevor Lawrence's dad. That's great. All right, Heath. So how did you enjoy your time away? What did you do while you were away from us making this all-decade? Well, you made the all-decade team before you went on vacation, so there's really no excuse for it. But we missed you, man.
Starting point is 00:15:53 What have you been up to? Let's see. The best things I did, I went to the Everglades and went camping and had a phenomenal time at Flamingo Park. Stayed right on the Florida Bay. Went canoeing with crocodiles and manatees. Whoa. It was outstanding.
Starting point is 00:16:13 I, on Sunday, actually went to the Maple Bacon Coffee Porter Fest at Funky Buddha. Oh. That was outstanding. It's their annual release. They only released that beer. They only released it once, and it's one of the best beers I've ever had in my entire life. I watched all of Jack Ryan and finally watched the first season of The Sopranos and caught up on Homeland. That's good.
Starting point is 00:16:36 Yeah, that's pretty good. I've never seen The Sopranos. What did you think of the first season? I'd never seen The Sopranos. I know, I know. But sure, what did you think? It's been outstanding. It's great.
Starting point is 00:16:48 It's been everything that I had hoped for, and most people have told me that the first season is one of the worst seasons, and it's going to get better. So I'm looking forward to it. Jack Ryan was a little bit tough because it was coming off of Homeland, and it's a little bit of a Homeland knockoff except not as good but it's still really okay so any close calls with alligators or crocodiles while in the everglades no and actually there were no croc alligators there there's only one place where alligators and
Starting point is 00:17:16 crocodiles live together in florida and we were not there so this was all crocodiles okay so it was awesome but but no you didn't like have one like come up to your canoe and like snap it. No, we had manatees and they're actually a little bit scarier because they could easily tip you over and there are crocodiles in the water. Oh, wow. Oh, man. They could work together to take you out. They could.
Starting point is 00:17:35 Wow. They could have eaten me if they wanted to. I had alligator recently. I tasted alligator. It's delicious. So good. I felt like it was just like chicken, but the way that it was prepared, I guess it was like a little too salty. Well, and it's a little
Starting point is 00:17:47 chewy, too. I didn't get the chewy. Crocodile's even saltier because they live in the salt water. Okay, that makes sense. Look at you. You're a regular skinner from 1990s WWE. Hey, Ben Gretch, what's your favorite... Let's get to know Ben Gretch. What's your favorite TV show of all time?
Starting point is 00:18:03 If you were going to recommend... That's a separate question. What's your favorite TV show of all time? If you were going to recommend – I don't know. It's a separate question. What's your favorite TV show of all time, like a binge-worthy TV show? I mean originally I probably would have said The Wire, but there's been a lot of really good shows the last few years. I think The Good Place, which is on right now, is a great one. Yeah, it's such a – I have no idea what that is. That is like so Gretchy right there.
Starting point is 00:18:26 No idea what the good place is. I think Chris towers is a huge fan of that as well. I watched an episode of it on the plane ride during my winter break to Hawaii. And it was very, very good. I've not, I've not seen the wires yet, but the wires next on my list after the Sopranos,
Starting point is 00:18:40 you guys have so much time to watch TV. It's unbelievable. Okay. So he's, much time to watch TV. It's unbelievable. Okay, so he's all-decade team. This is the time, Dave. It's January. No, I'm busy watching football. There's two games, four games a week.
Starting point is 00:18:57 What are you talking about watching football? College football. College football. Oh, come on. There's no college football right now. There is for me.
Starting point is 00:19:03 I haven't watched much from the 2019 season. I got to go and watch it now. Drew Brees is There's no college football right now. There is for me. I haven't watched much from the 2019 season. I got to go and watch it now. Drew Brees is Heath's quarterback. Everybody had him. Christian McCaffrey and LaShawn McCoy. I think three of the four of us had McCoy. Heath, I think, was the only one on McCaffrey. You will admit, Adam, that you chose
Starting point is 00:19:18 McCoy because of the number that I provided when I chose McCoy, right? Absolutely not. I will say that you opened my eyes a little bit to McCoy, but no. I chose McCoy, right? Absolutely not. I will say that you opened my eyes a little bit to McCoy, but no, I chose McCoy because he had like four top six finishes or six top four finishes, something like that. He was really good. You have Antonio Brown, which was right.
Starting point is 00:19:36 You have Julio Jones, which was wrong. That should be Calvin Johnson. Jimmy Graham, which I agree with you on. And boy, Jamie really came after me on the Jimmy Graham thing. And Larry Fitzgerald, which is just with you on. And boy, Jamie really came after me on the Jimmy Graham thing. And Larry Fitzgerald was just awful. Go ahead, Heath. Let's just address the Christian McCaffrey situation. Because I think that's the most important one.
Starting point is 00:19:53 I'm not going to make any defense of Larry Fitzgerald over Calvin Johnson. That was a mistake, and I should have Calvin Johnson there. I'll just accept that. Christian McCaffrey is the correct answer. Here's why. He had two of the top five seasons of the decade his 2019 was 63 fantasy points better than any other running back this decade the main guys you guys chose instead were Todd Gurley Ezekiel Elliott Adrian Peterson Le'Veon
Starting point is 00:20:19 Bell he had two seasons better than any Todd Gurley, Elliott, or Peterson season. And Le'Veon Bell crushed fantasy owners almost as often as he helped them. He was a bust in 2015, 2018, and 2019. That's the same number of top five seasons that he had. Christian McCaffrey didn't have any bust seasons and had two of the top five seasons. You can't have an all-decade season without the best running back of the decade. You're going off of PPR scoring? Yes.
Starting point is 00:20:47 This was the decade that PPR scoring became the most popular scoring format, so I thought it was fitting to use that format. That's a good argument for that because I went away from that. I wanted something that was a little more pure. In non-PPR, Christian McCaffrey had the very best season of the decade in non-PPR. Okay. Listen, I thought about McCaffrey, too, and I just thought that he just didn't play enough to warrant being on the list.
Starting point is 00:21:10 I thought it was interesting. Ezekiel Elliott played one more season than McCaffrey. That's true. He scored 84 more fantasy points. McCaffrey scored 84 more than Ezekiel. No, Elliott did. Yeah. But he had another season.
Starting point is 00:21:20 I picked Elliott because of his consistency. The fact that he gave you 10 non-PPR in 91% of his games, that's something that I couldn't overlook. I had to put him on my all-decade team. Was that Mercedes Lewis's name? Was that Mercedes Lewis's name? Yeah, I don't know why Mercedes Lewis was on the graphic, Dave. Because I knew that everybody else was going to pick Gronk,
Starting point is 00:21:43 or at least I thought everybody else was going to pick Gronk so i put mercedes lewis in as my tight end but obviously it's for me it was gronk but it's not as obvious now because i know adam heath you guys chose jimmy graham ahead of rob gronkowski i understand why you did it i just wouldn't have done it i would have picked gronk but i was just i was just fooling around, but our graphics department decided to play the joke on me and put Mercedes Lewis as the tight end. Yeah, he's not really the tight end I would pick. I'll say I don't understand why any of you would take Jimmy Graham over Gronk. And I don't understand why on an all-decade fantasy team you guys care about who scored
Starting point is 00:22:20 the most points in the decade. Like McCoy's career overlapped really nicely with the start to the end of the decade. But like in fantasy, we play single seasons. Rob Gronkowski averaged, and if you look at single games, averaged over three points, I think it is. But you can't look at games.
Starting point is 00:22:38 If you're going to say we play seasons because he did have games. No, he got hurt a lot. Right. Yeah, but I mean, we're talking yeah that was part of it 15.5 points per game to 12.2 points per game over their careers that's a big difference among the top end of the tennis and i think it's the same reason for the sean mccoy do the sean mccoy ever finishes the rb1 i mean you don't you have a guy in there who was literally never a league winner
Starting point is 00:23:02 or like the number one running back. I don't think. No, he didn't. But he was a top four running back four times. He was a top three running back three times. He finished number two once. So that's pretty good. Six top 12 finishes, four top four finishes.
Starting point is 00:23:22 I do think he was a league winner even if he wasn't the number one running back. Yeah. So I like McCoy there. And for Zeke, the difference between, you give that point about the fantasy points of McCaffrey versus Zeke, but Zeke has had four seasons where he has been a must-start every single week total stud,
Starting point is 00:23:34 whereas McCaffrey's only had two. So it's not that he's played one more season, but McCaffrey wasn't really anything really in his rookie season. So it's four to two for Zeke. And honestly, I think that Arian Foster has a better case than Christian McCaffrey that's absurd because Arian Foster that is the most ridiculous thing you've said so many terrible things on this podcast and that is the most ridiculous thing Arian Foster is more deserving than Christian
Starting point is 00:23:58 McCaffrey because he played four and a half seasons to Christian McCaffrey's three seasons this decade you're wrong he was he was RB1 and He was RB1, and then he was RB3, and then he was RB3. Three straight top three finishes. Then he had a bad year, and then he came back and he was RB6. That is four out of five as a top six. Three straight as a top three. And look at his fantasy points per game in his four good seasons. 24.7, 23.8, 19.1, and 21.0.
Starting point is 00:24:25 And guys didn't do that consistently like Arian Foster. That was like eight years before Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey just averaged 29 fantasy points per game. But it's a different era. It's a different era. Nobody else did it. Arian Foster's season is still the third best season in the decade. None of the guys this year were doing what McCaffrey was doing.
Starting point is 00:24:47 He had four top six seasons. He outscored every other running back by 70 points for this decade in that season last year. 70 points better than any other running back. That's one year. That's one year. The year before was the fifth best season this decade. The single best year ever.
Starting point is 00:25:04 Yeah, I like the MacArthur intake. Come on, man. I want to throw in another name, though. What about Jamal Charles? I feel like you guys kind of overlooked him. Another injury-prone guy, but a guy who was absolutely elite early in the decade and so much fun to own in fantasy, especially if you had him in 2013 when he had that huge, I think it was a six touchdown,
Starting point is 00:25:22 five of them were receiving touchdowns if i'm recalling it right uh week 15 oh sorry ben only two seasons in the top five for him so like he just got hurt too much i i thought about him but i just couldn't do it with charles like i think like going back to the jimmy graham gronk thing just because i wasn't here for that big debate and I knew that would be a fight over who the tight end of the decade was. And I could make a case for either guy, but I don't think it's fair to Jimmy Graham to not consider him. I almost feel like if he had just retired a couple of years ago, we'd view him as a much better candidate for the all-decade team. Gronk has the best season of the decade. Jimmy Graham has the second and the fourth best seasons of the decade.
Starting point is 00:26:09 Then Gronk has six and eight. Then Jimmy Graham has 14 and 17, which were better than any other Gronk season. So they were right there for a period of time, and Graham was more reliable. Okay. Yeah, they both had five top five finishes. They both had combined four top two finishes.
Starting point is 00:26:27 Gronk had three number ones, and Graham had two number ones. But yeah, very, very close there. And I went with Graham, and I couldn't believe it, because as I said on this show last week, my first reaction was like, Heath is crazy. And then I was like, oh my God, Heath is right. So Heath, you were right, buddy. Good for you. Happy New Year, Adam. We're starting things off on a good foot. Yeah, you were right, buddy. Good for you. Happy New Year, Adam.
Starting point is 00:26:45 We're starting things off on a good foot. Yeah, happy New Year to you. Jimmy Graham played 38 more games and scored 90 more points in the decade. How many points did he score in his last 16? Like 12? Yeah, I mean, he's been bad at the end. I agree with you that he's good, but I disagree with Adam that you're right. I think you're both wrong.
Starting point is 00:27:04 We got some news to get to around the NFL. By the way, our email address is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Let's get to the news real quick here. Oh, yeah, there were some coordinator things going on. Bill Lazor to the Bears. Lazor. And, oh, John DiFilippo. Did you talk about John DiFilippo yesterday?
Starting point is 00:27:21 We did. It broke while we were on the air. And Jamie surmised that it just means that they've they've got a different guy in mind to come in and defilippo got the boot they're going to bring somebody else in we'll find out who that somebody else is guesses are welcome but uh defilippo on the move again going to be on his third team in as many years i i hope that they have somebody else like planned and ready to go and has agreed to take the job because i think you made a good point i don't know why anybody that has proven they are good at this job would take this job
Starting point is 00:27:48 i'll tell you why because there are only 32 play callers in the nfl and a bunch of them are head coaches oh so somebody who wants the first chance yes right and so i'm thinking what if it's todd monken who he's been offensive coordinator he's been offensive he didn't call plays he didn't call plays in cleveland he did barely a year and Dirk, and then Dirk Cutter didn't like him anymore. That's the only time. So I wonder if he's getting another chance to do it, and I think that that would be good for Jacksonville if he's the guy. We know it won't be Pat Shermer, and I guess that's a good thing.
Starting point is 00:28:17 Or Bill Lazor. No, that's a bad thing. I wanted to say yesterday, Pat Shermer is the man. That is awesome for Denver. Pat Shermer is a great offensive coordinator. He has made Eli Manning look good. He has made Case Keenum look good. He's got so much more out of Daniel Jones than we ever thought he would get in his rookie year.
Starting point is 00:28:36 Pat Shermer is the man. That's a great hire. Do you worry about Pat Shermer leaving for Daniel Jones? Yes, because the Giants are idiots. They are stuck in the 1950s. The way Joe Judge is talking, the way Dave Gettleman wants to put his team together,
Starting point is 00:28:53 they are going to try to ground and pound. They are going to be a high-run team if they have the defense for it, which they probably won't. That'll save Daniel Jones. But yes, I hate the developments. I hate the things I'm hearing from Joe Judge. I can't believe we're going down this path. The Giants need to get with it.
Starting point is 00:29:07 I know they hired four, quote, computer folks, but they need to get with it and get into 2020 because they sound like an archaic team that doesn't understand how to win football games. And yet they see how the 49ers and Titans are winning games, and they're going, that's what we got to be. Mike Shula has been a name that's been rumored to be with the Giants. Now, if that doesn't get you excited for Giants football 2020,
Starting point is 00:29:36 I don't know what will. I'll be through 2020, because Mike Shula is a blast from the past. No, but he is the coordinator for the Giants. Marvin Lewis is still available, right? You think he did get an OC job? Yeah, he was the coordinator under Schirmer. Well, but he wasn't calling the plays, I don't believe. I think Schirmer was the one calling the plays.
Starting point is 00:29:55 So that's their way of trying to keep some lineage going, I guess. Right. All right. And by the way, with DiFilippo, let's not forget, because you and I talked about this very briefly a few weeks ago. I said Leonard Fournette would definitely have a decrease in his catches. And you said, because I cited Ezekiel Elliott from 2018 and 2019, you correctly pointed out, well, he had a different offensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:30:20 Well, I think I feel very safe in saying Leonard Fournette is not going to catch 76 passes. He did that in 15 games. I think that number is coming down. I think he's going to be in the, I don't know, 55. Do you think his carries go up? Maybe. Right now, Adam, I would say you're probably right. Let's see who they hire and what they say.
Starting point is 00:30:40 They should continue to throw it to him a lot more, but we'll see if they do. He did have 265 carries over 15 games. That average is not quite a career high for him, but pretty close, 17.7 per game. It might go up a little bit. I'm a little worried about the catches coming down, but again, it just depends who's there and what that Jacksonville defense ends up looking like.
Starting point is 00:31:03 Remember, the way it left last year was horrible. We'll see how does ben gretch let's talk about the vikings real quick because mike zimmer said he lost his offensive coordinator uh but he says he wants to run the same offensive system he wants some continuity for kirk cousins man i mean that offensive system that's how i feel not like it was not entertaining that offensive system was not entertaining. I don't know what we expect. Yeah, it's meh. Changing coordinators and play callers but not changing the playbook is not usually a good thing. But a good way to keep the offensive system in place
Starting point is 00:31:42 is to take your senior assistant who's been calling plays his entire life and make him the offensive coordinator and the play caller. And that would be making Gary Kubiak the offensive coordinator in Minnesota. That would make me a little bit more excited and a little bit more confident that Minnesota could at least keep its momentum going on offense from what we saw from this year, which was a pretty good year for Kirk Cousins. I just don't know what to make of Diggs and Thielen if this is the case, and they're both back. With Kubiak as the play caller or with a completely – Well, just with Zimmer still being – Zimmer's in charge of the offense. Zimmer fired DiFilippo because he wanted to run the ball more.
Starting point is 00:32:18 He installed someone that would run the ball. Now he's saying we're going to get somebody that's going to run the ball. I didn't ever really – Diggs and Thielen both had their moments this year it's true but i don't i'm not gonna feel comfortable with them next year as top 15 wide receivers i'll bring it up again i brought it up on the podcast yesterday uh theelin was a round three pick are you taking adam theelin ppr round three i probably won't i didn't last year, though. Okay. Diggs round four, yes or no? Diggs should go ahead of Thielen by a lot.
Starting point is 00:32:51 I think he should. All right, hold on. Stop right there, because Jamie keeps bringing it up that Jamie got our top ten wide receivers from everyone, and he keeps saying that Ben putting Stefan Diggs in the top ten is like the one thing that stands out more than anything. So Ben, you just said something that is completely insane. You said Stefan Diggs should go ahead of Adam Thielen. I suppose you have not been paying attention to fantasy football for the last three seasons. So go ahead and explain yourself, Ben. Wait, what? Adam Thielen hardly played this
Starting point is 00:33:22 year. Stefan Diggs is about to be, I think, 26. He came into the league at 21. He's been very, very good through the early part of his career. Adam Thielen's about to be 30. So you're talking about a 30-year-old receiver who's been banged up all year against a guy who got his entire role changed. In 2018, Stephon Diggs' average depth of target was 8.6 yards. The league average for a wide receiver is 11.1. It was well below that number receivers 11.1 it was
Starting point is 00:33:45 well below that number in 2019 it was 14 something it was way above the league average all of a sudden he was a deep threat when when Stefanski took over and they changed it into more of a running and play action passing game he didn't even get 100 targets this year but his line his his line is exactly almost exactly the same as the average Deshaun Jackson 16-game pace through Deshaun Jackson's peak. It's the same number of receptions and touchdowns. It was like 10 yards less. He became an elite deep threat. Deshaun Jackson is, in my opinion, the best deep threat of our generation.
Starting point is 00:34:16 He made almost every quarterback he played with better. He got changed into a deep threat who didn't even get 100 targets and immediately became a lead at it. I think he was the league leader in yards per target or top three Diggs can do everything if you look at it from a long perspective I mean I understand being concerned about the lack of 100 targets but if you look at it from a long perspective this guy is an elite receiver he's a he's a top 10 real life receiver he might be a top five real life receiver and if if Stefanski's gone if they do throw more and they almost have to throw more because they threw very, very little this year, I think he only has room to get better. But yeah, I mean, I don't know how you don't like how good he's been in every role he's played in. Because he hasn't been that
Starting point is 00:34:53 good for fantasy. Because Adam Thielen, when they're on the field together, Adam Thielen has been better every single year when they've played together. Adam Thielen is always better in fantasy. And as much as you want to say about Deshahaun Jackson Deshaun Jackson wasn't really that great of a fantasy wide receiver overall he he's a his deep being a deep threat is not necessarily a good thing for fantasy I mean it's just you know it's just too inconsistent not enough catches and I think the main thing for me is just that Thielen outperforms Diggs in fantasy when they're on the field it happens every year now i would agree that i would take digs over theelin next year um i do think it's probably crazy to take either of them amongst the top 12 wide receivers with zimmer saying what he said about the offense because
Starting point is 00:35:36 i think he has complete control and i think that means another low volume here yeah i probably i'm probably high on digs and i i'll just tell you right now, I'm sure I'm going to end up dropping him as we go into the offseason. But I do think, to Adam's point about Thielen beating Diggs every year, that wasn't true this year. Thielen was hurt this entire season. And Thielen's 30 now. Diggs is going into his prime. When they're on the field together. But 30's not old.
Starting point is 00:36:02 And Thielen outperforms him. And that's just what I'm saying. Like, Ds is targets. Digs is pretty, this year digs was pretty bad when he played with Adam Thielen. Like he was a total bust. The only thing that saved him was the feeling injury. I don't think that's totally accurate either.
Starting point is 00:36:15 I've been trying to look these numbers up the whole time we've been on it and I've not quite got it done yet, but before the end of the show, I will have digs and feel and numbers in games that Thielen played at least 10 snaps. How about just bottom line games played, Diggs had a better average per game than Thielen. Oh, for sure. It was close to non-PPR. Because Thielen kept leaving with injuries.
Starting point is 00:36:38 You can't count the Kansas City game. You can't count the Detroit game. I started him in those games, so why can't we count those games? Okay, I understand that injuries hurt Adam Thielen, but when Thielen was healthy and when he played, he was better than Stephon Diggs. Now, Diggs had the
Starting point is 00:36:53 seven catches, 167 yards, and three touchdowns against Philadelphia in week six. That was his only game in the first six games. Thielen played the first six games before getting hurt. His only game with more than eight fantasy points in non-PPR. He had two games with double-digit fantasy points in PPR. The first six games. Dillon played the first six games before getting hurt. His only game with more than eight fantasy points in non-PPR. He had two games with double-digit fantasy points in PPR. The first six games?
Starting point is 00:37:09 Biggs had seven for 108 against the Bears. He had a fumble. So, okay. He had a fumble. That was the 15-point game in week four. Yes. So, okay. Do what you will with that. But he... Look at the game log. 37, 49, 15, 108, 108 44 167 yards that's not
Starting point is 00:37:28 very good for six games though yeah he only had you know what we gotta talk running backs this team threw 11 passes in a game this year it was the fewest in any game in the last like five years i mean you can say look at digs game log but you have to put into context the fact that this was a super run heavy team and when they did throw the ball and when he did get targets he was amazingly efficient he's very very good right i don't think anybody's questioning that it's just questioning the opportunities and just the focus of the vikings offense about how they want to be run centric and you could argue that theolin in 2018 the reason why he had a monster year was because cook was on and off the field and they didn't have a good run game to replace him latavius was why he had a monster year was because Cook was on and off the field,
Starting point is 00:38:05 and they didn't have a good run game to replace him. Latavius was there. He had some okay moments. Now I'm thinking, even if Dalvin Cook were to miss time, you can't rub your hands together and say, okay, it's Thielen's turn to put up huge numbers, because I think they'd run it just the same with Madison, especially with Madison going into his second season and understanding what the offense is all about. All right, guys.
Starting point is 00:38:29 Moving on here. Good discussion. Fun stuff. All I know is one thing I can take away from this discussion is that Arian Foster had a better decade than Christian McCaffrey. So we go to running backs and the questions about the running back position. You know, Heath, I'm going to throw this one to you since you're the strategy guy. Do you have a running back strategy yet here in January? No, not at all. I'm looking forward to putting together my definitive strategy for redraft and a different strategy for dynasty and then one for PPR, half PPR, and I'll follow it exactly no matter what everyone else does in the draft room, but I haven't come up with it yet. I just think I'm going to chase running backs pretty heavily this year.
Starting point is 00:39:05 Going to want a lot of them. But, I mean mean that that's me that's what i always do so i i can't imagine after the year that receivers had i'm gonna say yep this is the year receivers had a good year they had a good year it wasn't like the best time of year they had less busts than running backs and half of the top 12 players were receivers were they as productive as they were last year um some of them were some of them were all right but in as productive as they were last year? Some of them were. Some of them were. Right, but in general, as a position, were they? I don't know how you would want to quantify.
Starting point is 00:39:31 What would be the top 12 fantasy points, the top 13 through 24, and so on and so forth? I felt like there was only one receiver that was amazing this year, and everyone else had good moments, but they weren't Michael Thomas weren't michael thomas basically is what it's true and i think that there were a lot of running backs terrible they were terrible they were a few of us i mean almost every almost every top 12 wide receiver i
Starting point is 00:39:57 feel like was a bust i mean julio jones julio jones was the number three wide receiver in PPR, right? But it wasn't that strong of a year for him. 1,406 for Julio Jones. He outscored all but five running backs. Or all but six, I'm sorry. In PPR, you're saying? In PPR, right. Obviously not in non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:40:18 Like, DeAndre Hopkins had one of his worst years. He had less than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. That's crazy. Where's Odell Beckham? Where is, who else was it? Where's Devontae Adams? He was a bust this year. Juju was a horrible bust, absolutely.
Starting point is 00:40:37 It was a terrible year for wide receivers. Remember, we kept saying that. I don't understand the different level. We're talking about how great running backs were and how terrible wide receivers were, but like Chris Godwin,
Starting point is 00:40:51 Julio Jones, Cooper cup, Deandre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, all outscored like two thirds of the running backs drafted in the first over. It's over. I'm going to tell you right now why this is over.
Starting point is 00:41:04 All right. PPR scoring. Chris Godwin was the number two wide receiver in fantasy in PPR. He scored 272 points. He would have been 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. He would have been 10th last year. The number two wide receiver in 2019 would have finished 10th in 2018. Game over.
Starting point is 00:41:22 So I guess running back was just really bad too? Because he would have been the same. No, I think you can make the case that outside of those big six running backs, there were some discrepancies and some problems there, especially when you compare them. Well, not the big six we drafted. No, no, no. The big six we drafted mostly finished.
Starting point is 00:41:38 I tend to agree with that. When you roll it over into 2020, I think it's interesting because we can also look at a lot of really good young seasons at wide receiver this year. We talked a lot about the rookie class, but there was a lot of second-year, third-year guys. That middle tier of the DJ Moores and Will Fuller was hurt, but I think he had a good year when he was healthy. And obviously Godwin we just mentioned. There's so many more names in this group that I'm not thinking of. Tyler Boyd had another good season in my opinion.
Starting point is 00:42:04 It makes wide receiver so deep next year. You asked about running back strategy. I'm going to be a lot more willing to take a couple of running backs at the top of drafts. Last year, I did a lot of one running back and then avoiding the position all through the dead zone. I'm going to be a lot more likely to take two running backs, at least in the first three rounds, and then hit receiver in rounds four, five, five six there's going to be so much receiver value in that range and the top 12 ppr receivers average 16.3 fantasy points per game that is down 2.1 points from 2018 so that that that's a big just macro qualifier for me as to why the position how were running backs compared to last year they were also down but i believe it was by about a point maybe less than a point i'm gonna look right now i think scoring was just down this year right
Starting point is 00:42:49 that might be the overall takeaway you know except a quarterback because i think the quarterbacks scored as many i think they might have been down when you look at the uh when you look at the best offenses in football this is what was so interesting, right? The top five scoring offenses in football, they didn't really give us good fantasy running backs. You're talking about the 49ers. Can somebody please pull up the top five scoring offenses? But I think that was a big difference. It was the Ravens, the Niners, the Saints, the Bucs, and the Chiefs. We only got one top 12 non-PPR running back and two top 12 PPR running backs from those offenses. So that was kind of strange.
Starting point is 00:43:41 Kamara was top 12 in PPR, but he was very disappointing this year. Maybe that's why it just felt different because we didn't get those leading offenses giving us those feature running backs. They may have had good running games, but they didn't give us great fantasy running backs. Ben, let me ask you this. Top 12 running back in 2020, that's most likely to be a bust. I mean, I have to say Derrick Henry. Let's talk about him. What do you think about him? Top 12 running back in 2020 that's most likely to be a bust? I mean, I have to say Derrick Henry. Let's talk about him. What do you think about him?
Starting point is 00:44:13 I mean, so he's like the biggest outlier. He's going to be the easiest counter that you guys can make to any point that I'll want to make all offseason about my trap stat or about the running back dead zone. He was the perfect storm of anti how i look at running back but i and i think he's an extremely special running back i think he's like very clearly an outlier i wrote an article about him a couple of weeks ago kind of uh d like deconstructing why he broke all of all of the molds of all the things i look at and and and part of it is this guy is six three 250 pounds and runs a four five ish i think 40 i mean he he's one of the most physically
Starting point is 00:44:51 imposing running backs of all time and that means that he can probably sustain things that other running backs can't it's not really probably fair to compare him to other running backs or use big broad rules on him but the issue for me is and will remain that he only caught 18 passes. That's a very low number. He almost has to be an amazingly efficient rusher and be an amazingly efficient touchdown scorer, which he was all season. He had 18 touchdowns this year. That's going to be a really hard thing to duplicate.
Starting point is 00:45:21 And he still only finished RB5 in PPR, right? So he was RBb2 in in standard but you almost have to be the absolute league leader in all these rushing categories rushing yards rushing touchdowns rushing attempts and stay healthy uh if you only catch 18 balls so that's that's the big problem for me you guys talked about him yesterday dave when i was tending to my sick cat apparently um about Derek Henry and how he has to be a first round pick in every format do you agree with that I don't know if you actually I think Ben no I said that I think there's a spot for him in the first round of every format it's
Starting point is 00:45:57 just a matter of when you want to take the chance on him and listen just because he only caught 18 balls this year doesn't mean that he can't catch 30 or 40 next year. Tennessee's clearly going to have to try and come up with some things to make their offense a little bit better. And I think that Derrick Henry does have potential to improve his game and be more versatile. I'm not suggesting that he's going to become a pop-pass quarterback, Tim Tebow style, like we saw against Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:46:21 But I do think that he's got a chance to still improve in other areas where he hasn't improved yet. And I think that the offensive line is going to be in really good shape. They might even address it further in the draft. I don't think Tennessee is going to look at what they're doing and say, all right, we made it to a Final Four spot in the NFL playoffs. Let's start developing our passing game more. And let's get another weapon to go with A.J. Brown and Corey Davidson.
Starting point is 00:46:47 Let's turn Ryan Tannehill into the next Patrick Mahomes. I think their identity is going to be with Derrick Henry. If anything, they might go and add another physical running back to go alongside with Derrick Henry and have in case Derrick Henry does get hurt. He's a little risky as a first round pick, but of the top 12 running backs, I think there's some others that we could name that have a little bit as a first-round pick, but of the top 12 running backs, I think there's some others that we could name that have a little bit more bust potential than DeHaan. Who?
Starting point is 00:47:09 Mark Ingram for me because that's a team that I think could take carries off of his plate and bring in others. And we talked about this on Monday as well. He's also 30. And I could see that team take a big step in their evolvement on offense. I think they could be a little bit different there than they were this year. And Ingram is kind of like Derrick Henry Light.
Starting point is 00:47:32 He was kind of touchdown needy, and he never got the type of carries that Henry had. And he finishes a top 12 running back in PPR. I think that he's got a very good chance of not being a top 12 running back next year. Yeah, Ingram would have been my first choice just because he's 30 years old and got banged up this year and is even more likely to get a running back. They've got two other running backs behind him.
Starting point is 00:47:51 I mean, yeah, Justice Hill didn't show us a whole lot this year when he got the ball, but hopefully he shows us more next year. I guess I'll go with Chris Carson just because of the injury history and because they have other options there who also have injury histories. And I just have this hope deep down in my soul that the Seahawks, as they're reviewing this year, they'll say, man, we sure moved the ball effectively in the fourth quarter when we'd worked ourselves into a two-score deficit
Starting point is 00:48:16 over and over and over again. Maybe if we let our best player throw the football more. No, they probably won't do that. There's probably still a lot of rush attempts available in Seattle, but I think Carson's probably my, like Ingram would be my number one, Carson would be my number two. I agree with that. And then I think the jury's still out on Austin Eckler
Starting point is 00:48:34 because we don't know what role he's going to have for the Chargers next year. None of those three running backs are going to go. I mean, maybe Carson goes in the second or third round. Ingram's going to be probably a fourth-round pick. I think he was in our early mock, and Eckler's probably not going to go i mean maybe carson goes in the second or third round ingram's going to be probably a fourth round pick i think he was in our early mock and eckler's probably not going to go earlier than that um they were all rb1s last year i actually thought adam was asking who who like a first round pick for next year might be that would be a bust uh but yeah i think those guys they all have their red flags but they're all i think they're all going to go a little bit later so it'll make them interesting gambles as well yeah i actually was ben asking
Starting point is 00:49:05 that but i realized halfway through the segment that they're different interpretations and i guess it didn't really matter uh but yeah i mean i i like i like the question that ben answered better i suppose like who do you think is going to go too early next year because carson and ingram won't go that high but henry certainly will but obviously keep in mind for the listeners, the three guys that were named are not big pass catchers. So that's always something we're going to be looking at. That matters in non-PPR and PPR. It's just valuable touches, valuable yards, a few extra touchdowns perhaps. Let's spin it, though, more positive.
Starting point is 00:49:40 Who could really – who could Dalvin cook it next year? Who could get himself into the conversation of being a top five overall pick? You know, not going to be this year, but could be the following year. Who could really break out Heath? I mean, I think there's a couple of rookies that kind of did in the second half of last year that you could see doing it this year. And it'd be Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary. I exclude Josh Jacobs because I think he's almost kind of viewed
Starting point is 00:50:06 in that top 10 range already. But either of those guys, if their coaches will give them 15 to 20 touches per game and they prove they can hold up to 16 games of that, I almost think it's a foregone conclusion they're going to be top 12 guys if those two things happen. I think Melvin Gordon is another candidate.
Starting point is 00:50:22 No, not top 12, though. Oh, sorry. Sorry, Dave, not top 12. I'm talking top five. I said it's a foregone conclusion they're going to be top 12 if that happens, which gives them the potential to be top five. Okay, but do you see superstar potential
Starting point is 00:50:36 with those guys? I think there's superstar potential with Sanders, for sure. I think there is with Singletary as well. I'm not as certain of that yet, but... Well, he's got everything that you're looking for. He's on a team that likes to run the football. He can catch passes out of the backfield. Once Frank Gore is out of there,
Starting point is 00:50:53 he can start working at the goal line a little bit more. He might lose some touchdowns in short range. But I think he's got a lot of potential to get valuable touches. And I think that that's what makes devin singletary a little bit better than miles sanders at this point will they give him those touches though because they were giving those touches to frank gore if gore's gone i don't know who else is going to get well there's there'll be a dozen running backs that are free agents that are available for a million dollars that are as good as frank and if they do that then that that would obviously sting
Starting point is 00:51:21 devin singletary but i also think that he's just he's a very talented back and he's going to get a lot why wouldn't they that's the way that i feel about it too why didn't they i don't know why especially after four had a dozen opportunities it seemed like and he couldn't score on any of them yeah it was crazy josh allen though the catch is concerned me josh allen takes his touchdowns yeah alan will yeah, Josh Allen has two of the top 10 all-time quarterback rushing touchdown seasons through two years. This year, he had 11 carries inside the 10-yard line. Singletary had four all year. I mean, Josh Allen is their goal lineback.
Starting point is 00:51:53 He's Cam Newton in a younger version of Cam Newton. Inside the five-yard line, Frank Gore had 11 carries. Josh Allen had five. Devin Singletary only had two. So I do think based on this year, there were plenty of goal line
Starting point is 00:52:10 carries to go around, but Frank Gore got most of them, and that will not happen next year. No chance. Unless it does, which would suck. They won't. In Devin Singletary's last six games of the season, he wasn't a top 15 running back,
Starting point is 00:52:26 but that's because he didn't score a rushing touchdown. But he had the fourth most carries in the NFL. He had the fifth most rushing yards. And he just didn't score. Ben, let's talk about Leonard Fournette because he's always a guy that's going to get a lot of work. And he just was so unlucky with touchdowns. He had the fifth most carries, I think, in the NFL. And he only had eight carries inside the five-yard line,
Starting point is 00:52:47 which was extremely low. They never got in the red zone. Dave was talking about that a lot down the stretch. Can Leonard Fournette be someone that goes Dalvin Cook on us and becomes elite in fantasy? And Ben, would you take him ahead of those younger guys, Singletary, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs? So I actually have Sanders ahead of Jacobs at this point, and it is the receiving value.
Starting point is 00:53:10 And they were close in PPR. I think I would take Sanders over Fournette. I'd probably take Fournette over Jacobs. I think Fournette's a really interesting guy to contrast from Derrick Henry, because he only finished, they both played 15 games. He only finished about 40 points behind him for the full season, even though he scored three touchdowns and Derrick Henry scored 18 touchdowns. But receiving and non-touchdown scoring, I don't know, best example of where you, like what the floor is when you have that type of a workload. Obviously, he has room to grow from that if he can score more than three touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:54:01 I mean, that's just pretty wild for a lead running back. Yeah, I would take Fournette over all the guys I mentioned. I wasn't counting him because he was the number seven running back this year. So I didn't think he factored into the make the leap into the top five. It would be moving up two spots from where he ranked this year. I meant top five overall picks, you know, the truly elite players in fantasy. And Fournette wasn't really close to that in non-PPR. He was 13th, but he was 7th in PPR. But I know you
Starting point is 00:54:29 always like Leonard Fournette. Can he stay healthy? Are they going to change things? We shall see. Dave, let's talk about some other guys. Philip Lindsay, Le'Veon Bell. Le'Veon Bell, his 16-game pace was 331 touches. So, it's still really, for him, that's kind of low,
Starting point is 00:54:48 but that's still a ton of touches. It is. Maybe he can jump back in. Kenyon Drake finished strong. David Montgomery is a rookie. We haven't talked about James Conner exists. I actually really – as we did the mock drafts, I really liked the running backs that were going in rounds four and five.
Starting point is 00:55:03 There was a lot of success in that range, I think, last season. What do you think about some of those guys I just mentioned? I think Drake is going to be an interesting one. I think a lot of the running backs that you mentioned, we just have to see what happens with where they're playing in 2020. And is Le'Veon Bell a sure thing to stay with the Jets? Hopefully not. If he is, hopefully not, right.
Starting point is 00:55:23 Let him find another place to play with an offensive line that can do a better job blocking for his style of running drake is someone who i'd love to see him stay in arizona and work on that offense but if david johnson's going to get healthy and contribute now we've got a pretty significant two-headed monster in that backfield i'm i just think that there's just there are factors that have to be played out this offseason before we can really come to a conclusion on any of those guys you know it's funny because like we i spent most of the offseason hyping up kenyan drake as either a breakout or a sleeper depending on where his adp was and i think it ended up being fifth or sixth round in most
Starting point is 00:56:02 drafts um he was a complete and total disaster in Miami, as everything was in Miami, and then he was a league winner that was available off the waiver wire. I think he's probably going to be drafted in a similar spot in the fifth or sixth round, and all the same arguments are going to apply to him again. I've got a lot more interest. Assuming we don't hear something from Arizona saying, no, David Johnson had this wrong. We expect him to be the same next year.
Starting point is 00:56:26 Assuming they bring back Kenyon Drake, I think I'd rather have Drake than Bell for sure. Look at the third round last year in CBS ADP. Karyon Johnson, Damian Williams, Chris Carson, Devontae Freeman, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones. So, you know, pretty good. Obviously, Kary on was injured, but when he played, he wasn't that efficient, but he was still worth using.
Starting point is 00:56:48 Damian Williams is so interesting. He's going to, he's going to drive us crazy again, this off season, depending on what the chiefs do. And then we, we haven't even talked about Aaron Jones. Like Aaron Jones finishes the number two running back in PPR,
Starting point is 00:57:00 I think, or maybe number three in PPR, number three, he's a top three running back, whatever the heck it was. And I think it's just, people are scared of maybe number three in PPR, number three. He's a top three running back, whatever the heck it was. And I think it's just people are scared of the touches, Ben. So how do you feel about Aaron Jones? What do you make of the fact that they just rode him in that playoff game,
Starting point is 00:57:16 didn't even give Jamal Williams a look? Yeah, no, that was a great sign because prior to that, Aaron Jones was way way way better during this season in the two games jamal williams missed and the two that jamal williams left early like substantially better i think it was about 40 total yards or yards from scrimmage more on average in those four games compared to the other 12 games it was nice to see that with jamal williams back and relatively healthy they really wanted wanted to ride Jones. And we might be expecting that going into the off season that he's done enough this year to earn more trust, but they do seem to really like Jamal Williams and they do want him to have a role,
Starting point is 00:57:54 especially as a pass blocker. It seems like, and he plays on passing downs that cuts into Jones of receiving, um, that there, there's some concern for me with Jones if, if Williams is healthy. Yeah. I think the thing is thing is it didn't surprise me too much that they used the running backs like they did in the playoffs because Aaron Jones is better than Jamal Williams. But I don't know that Matt LaFleur or the Packers want to see 25 touches per game over a 16-game season for Aaron Jones. I think they'd like to let him loose like that later in the year maybe.
Starting point is 00:58:24 So I still expect he's probably going to be in that 15 touch range early in the year again. Yeah. And if you look at the splits, the catches, he had 27 catches in 12 games with Devante Adams. He had 22 catches in four games without Devante Adams. That's Aaron Jones. So we'll be talking about that for sure. Any final thoughts, guys? Dave, give me a final thought on running backs. I'm still concerned about some of the teams that are going to continue to split going into next year, but I think the rookie class is going to be really interesting. It'll be especially good if Travis Etienne ends up declaring, but we've got a nice crop of young rookies coming in don't be surprised if one or two of
Starting point is 00:59:05 them end up finishing as top 12 fantasy running backs yeah i would say don't be surprised if we get to like june 1st and there are a dozen teams where we legitimately do not know who the starting running back there are a ton of free agents there is a huge draft class coming in and there were already a lot of situations that were semi committee so i think that like early in the summer there could be a lot of argument over who's going to lead what team and running back touches ben i mean yeah you brought up damian williams i'm gonna i'm gonna kind of piggyback on what both of those guys said and say that i think the chiefs are gonna add a rookie running back to that rookie running back is
Starting point is 00:59:45 going to be a top five player next season. Ooh. Oh, Hey, okay. A bold prediction to end the show. Well, it was great to have Heath back.
Starting point is 00:59:55 Thank you to Heath, Dave and Ben for being on today. Thank you all so much for listening and watching on YouTube at youtube.com slash fantasy football today. And thanks to our video crew for always doing a great job. We will talk to you on Thursday with some wide receiver reflections and some DFS talk for the upcoming games. And I'm going to try to squeeze in a Friday show because I really want to do a call-in show. That's going to happen pretty soon, but at least at the very least, we'll be back on Thursday. All right. Take it easy, everybody. Dave.

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