Fantasy Football Today - 01/22: Championship Round Recap; Winningest Players from 2018; Mailbag (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 22, 2019

Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings and Dave Richard recap the AFC and NFC Championship Games, look at the top players based on win percentage from 2018 and answer your emails. ... We start the show with ...an email related to Todd Gurley and Damien Williams for 2019 and if Gurley's stock is down based on his playoff performance, as well as if Williams is on the rise. ... For news and notes, we talk about the health of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon for 2019 (12:40) based on a report from CBS NFL Analyst Pete Prisco at the Senior Bowl. ... The Saints highlight our conversation about the NFC Championship Game (21:00), including Drew Brees' value for 2019, Alvin Kamara potentially cracking the Top 4 overall picks and if Michael Thomas can be the No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver. For the AFC Championship Game (29:03), we focus on the Chiefs and where Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill should be drafted next season, including some combo choices for Mahomes and Kelce. ... In breaking down the players with the best win percentage from 2018, we show why it pays to wait on a quarterback (39:40), talk James Conner and Jaylen Samuels and their role for 2019 (40:55), the outlook for Robby Anderson and Dante Pettis (42:35) and if Hunter Henry can be the breakout tight end for next year (44:48). And we answer your emails. ...  Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Super Bowl 53 is set.
Starting point is 00:00:21 I know one person on this show is probably not going to be very happy about that. This is your Fantasy Football Today podcast. It is Tuesday, January 22nd, two days after the AFC and NFC Championship games. We have the Patriots and the Rams going to the Super Bowl in Atlanta.
Starting point is 00:00:38 Not the Chiefs. I'm sorry for you, Heath Cummings. How are you holding up two days later? Oh, I was fine until you started talking about it. Now all the feelings come rushing back. I watched the Celtics play last night. I've written two fantasy baseball articles this morning. I haven't even been thinking about it. It's perfectly
Starting point is 00:00:54 fine. I haven't been thinking about Dee Ford being like six inches offside. If he even was, we never actually saw an angle that was down the line on that. That's true. We also saw a very strange roughing the passer penalty on Tom Brady where somebody just did a john scene in front of his eyes i mean it is funny because we hear so much in the nba about how the warriors have run the nba because everybody just knows that every year the warriors are going to the finals and nobody else
Starting point is 00:01:20 has a chance in the nba it's been took years of this with the Patriots. This is their ninth Super Bowl under the Belichick-Brady reign. The first one, ironically enough, was in 2002 when the Patriots beat the Rams 20-17. Tom Brady was the MVP of that game. This will be the third year in a row that the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl. They are 1-1 in their last two. And, yeah, we'll see how this all unfolds. I'm sure the Saints, talking about some bad calls, are probably not thrilled. The Rams beat the Saints 26-23.
Starting point is 00:01:50 Both games went to overtime. We'll break down all those games as we go throughout the course of the show. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings. We are taking the ship one more time from Adam Azer, who will be back, I believe, one week from yesterday. So he will be on our, not our next show, but the following show after that. But what we're going to do today, we're going to go through the AFC and NFC championship games.
Starting point is 00:02:12 We're going to look at the winningest players from 2018. I know a lot of you guys like when we talk about that list and the players who contributed to the most playoffs, the most championships, the most successful seasons from the 2018 season. And we will answer your emails. Dave, any thoughts on what you saw with the games before we get to it in a little bit?
Starting point is 00:02:28 They were fun as hell. I know the results. If you're a Saints fan, you're probably even angrier than Heath is right now, but they were very entertaining games, and we were hoping that they were coming because the playoffs were really crappy until this past weekend. So happy that we had some great games and some great moments. Yeah, I think that makes a good point that the games were phenomenal.
Starting point is 00:02:55 The endings to both games did not live up to what the rest of the game had been. One was mired in ridiculous controversy, and the other one just brought up the whole overtime issue. Right. You would have liked to see the Chiefs have a chance to maybe tie, or obviously, as the overtime would have unfolded, maybe win. I know nobody likes, or football fans are not supposed to like soccer, but I don't
Starting point is 00:03:16 know why they can't just have the same overtime that soccer does. Or college. Well, college is a little wonky with the start of the ball at the 25, but why not just have, just play a quarter? If it's tied, play another quarter. If it's still tied, then you can go set at death. Well, they can't do that in the regular season because they want to get these games over with.
Starting point is 00:03:31 But in the playoffs, I don't think that that's necessarily a bad thing. What if it's where if you score a touchdown and convert two, the game's over? If you score a touchdown and kick the extra point, the other team still gets a chance. You're still determining the game by a coin flip. Okay. I don't think it's necessarily determined by a coin flip.
Starting point is 00:03:49 I don't have a major problem with the way OT rules are right now. Listen, I go to the NFL owners' meetings every year. I'll be there again this year. I'm sure it'll be something for the competition committee that Dave, you've been there a few times, too. Can you get in that room maybe and say something? Yes. Give them my idea. I'll sneak in and say, Dave, you've been there a few times, too. Can you get in that room, maybe, and say something? Yes. Give him my idea. I'll sneak in and say, soccer, soccer over here.
Starting point is 00:04:10 So I want to start with a quick email here. This comes to us from Andrew from a city in northwest Iowa. Dave? I don't know where Sioux City is, but we'll say it. We'll say Sioux City, Iowa. So Andrew from Sioux City, Iowa. Hello, Johnson, Holmes, Hunt, and Charles. Sioux Falls, Iowa. Sioux Falls, Iowa. Excuse me. Those are Chiefs running backs? Those are Chiefs running backs. Larry, Johnson, Holmes, Hunt, and Charles. Sioux Falls, Iowa.
Starting point is 00:04:25 Excuse me. Those are Chiefs running backs? Those are Chiefs running backs. Larry, Priest, Kareem, and Jamal. I'm in a three-player keeper non-PPR league. So a three-player keeper non-PPR league. And Andrew's in a pickle. Who does he keep?
Starting point is 00:04:40 His lineup is two wide receivers, one running back, and one flex. And here are his choices levion bell todd gurley james connor damian williams keenan allen doug baldwin cooper cup and travis kelsey can only keep three of those guys so levion todd gurley james connor damian williams keenan allen doug baldwin cooper cup and travis kelsey and andrew uh did say that he won the title last year for the second year in a row. He does not have to give up any draft picks later in the draft, but he does pick last for the first three rounds in the snake draft.
Starting point is 00:05:14 So which of those three guys would you consider keeping? Well, you can't do all three of the running backs. There's four running backs here. You can't pick three of them because you can only start one and a flex. I think Kelsey's got it. Is there no tight end? He didn't list a tight end either, so Kelsey would have to be the flex. Right, unless he just didn't indicate it,
Starting point is 00:05:33 but it could be wide receiver, tight end. But I'm going to assume no. This is a little tricky because of those rules. I think Gurley's got to be in there. I think that goes without saying. I think I would go Gurley, Connor, Keenan Allen. In non-PPR, just to keep the one receiver? I think so.
Starting point is 00:05:50 I think I'd go Gurley, Connor, Kelsey. Gurley, Connor, Kelsey. So you guys are now, I think if I had it correctly, you had Bell over Connor, though. Yeah, but this is a keeper league, so if I can keep Connor for long term, I'll take him over. You have to get out of your mind long term.
Starting point is 00:06:06 Whenever we get keeper questions, you always go this. Most of them, unless they indicate to us, though, it's usually one year. So keeping for one season. All right, so you're going Gurley, Connor, and Kelsey. Kelsey, you're going? Gurley, Connor, Allen. Gurley, Connor, Allen. I'm going to go Gurley, Connor, and I may go Le'Veon even though I'm not thrilled.
Starting point is 00:06:26 I don't see where he ends up. And if it's strictly a thing where you can only keep these players for one year, that's it. Then put Bell in over Connor. Okay. All right. So the reason I brought this email up is because I think the perception that we have when we go through the playoffs, maybe not us per se, but a lot of people that play fantasy and maybe watch the playoffs of the Super Bowl and then don't watch or don't care about football until they come to their draft is the perception that you're left
Starting point is 00:06:49 with. We get this at the end of the regular season. We get this in the playoffs. And Gurley is coming off a struggling situation for the last couple of games following the injury, whereas Damian Williams is coming off monster performances. Now, Gurley did say he was healthy. There was some question about, is his knee bothering him? And he said that, I was sorry as hell today, talking about his performance. And he did say that CJ Anderson was playing better. So he wanted CJ Anderson to continue doing the work. Gurley in the championship game, four carries, 10 yards and a touchdown, one catch on three yards. Damian Williams in his championship game, 10 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown, five catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets.
Starting point is 00:07:25 He closed the season on just an absolute tear, 100 yards, total yards or a touchdown in each of his last seven games, including the playoffs. So we've talked about this quite a bit. If Gurley has competition, not necessarily in terms of role, but in terms of somebody taking touches away, like C.J. Anderson, like we've seen the last couple of games, and on the positive side, if Damian Williams is is the guy has he now elevated himself to a point where we have to consider him first 36 overall picks and in terms of girly do we have to now downgrade him to maybe closer to number five as opposed to number one i want to tackle damian williams first because it's it's a little more fun, a little more upbeat. That's the positive side, sure.
Starting point is 00:08:07 I don't see what he's done in these last seven games in a row, you said, Jame? I believe so. Six or seven. He's been on fire where he doesn't deserve a chance to be their lead back going into 2019. As long as they don't spend big capital free agency money one of their top 100 draft picks so someone outside of the first three rounds on a quality running back
Starting point is 00:08:34 i think he's gonna have that job again and he should he's been great and i don't know about top 36 i think he might be more like top 24 so top two yeah i mean we did see him in one of our and i think if we're drafting i'm sorry jamie I think if we're drafting, I'm sorry, Jamie. I think if we're drafting now, he's got to be a second-round pick. And you don't feel the same way? I don't feel the same way. He was awesome in this game. And I think he is top 36 if they don't spend a top 100 pick
Starting point is 00:08:59 or add a free agent that you're concerned about. I think the most likely situation is we have a really tough decision to make because they spend a third round pick on a running back right and it's a guy we're kind of excited about but we don't know for sure if he's a starting nfl running back and we're going to go through the same thing we did with hunt and where in the two years ago williams probably won't have that injury that where it is and so it's going to be a little bit messy possibly but no he this game was further convincing that he deserves a shot absolutely he does and we could be looking at a situation where Damian Williams is somewhere between 20th and 30th
Starting point is 00:09:33 overall because as much as we love how he played it makes sense for the Chiefs to add another running back they can't go into next year with Daryl Williams and Spencer Ware behind them they'd want to get somebody sure a little more juice and probably healthier knees. It's just the way that it is at running back in the NFL. Teams are constantly refreshing that position. So you get to pick 24 and Damian Williams, Travis Kelsey, and Patrick Mahomes are all there.
Starting point is 00:09:56 They won't be. I probably took a running back in the first round. There's no way Kelsey's going to 24. Yeah, I'm probably going to... If Kelsey's there, I'm taking Kelsey. Mahomes will be there in our drafts, maybe not the most standardized. Now, Gurley, on the other hand, again, the injury is probably a factor for how he's been performing. He was good against Dallas, obviously, with whatever the conditioning issues that he was working through, over 100 yards rushing and a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:10:20 C.J. Anderson just happened to be better. Are we now going to downgrade Todd Gurley from what should be the consensus number one overall pick to maybe two, maybe three, maybe four or five? Who knows? Depending on how it all shakes out with guys in comparison of that range, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, maybe one of the two.
Starting point is 00:10:37 One of potential two or three receivers. The decision for me will be third or fourth. Because I think Barkley and Elliott are going to be one and two. You're already making that? Yeah. Okay. And I think it comes down to Gurley and McCaffrey, and it comes down to, like, what do we hear?
Starting point is 00:10:53 I don't really – and I'm not calling Todd Gurley a liar. I'm not calling the Rams liars. I don't believe he's fully healthy. It may be a situation where he's not right, but he is healthy. I would not be – like, none of us would be surprised if he had his knees scoped in the next 60 days. Or drained or something. We find out there's something that just wasn't right. But I think there's a decent chance C.J. Anderson, somebody like that, is going to be there with him.
Starting point is 00:11:17 And one of the great things about Todd Gurley over the last two years is that he didn't have to share. And he didn't have to share a little bit that I'm putting behind Barkley and zeke and mccaffrey's one that's going to be tough you there also i'm i've thought about it with saquon and i think i can do something like that where i just go you know what i know that saquon barkley's not going to share or if he does share it's going to be three or four carries and zeke too i mean zeke's not going to share i think if girly does have some sort of procedure in the next 60 days like heath is talking about that will that will make the rams want to take some load off of him sure and just in terms of if you know who knows cj anderson is playing himself now into a contract
Starting point is 00:11:56 if he has another big game in the super bowl by contract i mean with another team you know he is a year removed from a thousand yards rushing you know hopefully he's in better shape by the time next offseason comes. He can end up with a job somewhere, especially with all the Sean McVay disciples around the league that may be wanting just to get a piece of what this Rams offense is. And if they do decide to bring him back, then that speaks to we trust him enough that we can spell Gurley a little bit. Remember, Gurley now, this is two playoff runs for him in back to back years. Last year, only one game, but this year a significant run. So we'll see how it all unfolds for Gurley. But yeah, it's something to consider. And again, I think a lot of
Starting point is 00:12:27 people look at what the playoffs and the Super Bowl and all those things, and that kind of stays fresh in your mind. Right now, Gurley is on a downswing. I think if he's coming off monster performances, we probably are not having this conversation, even if CJ Anderson is doing what he's doing. All right, let's get to some news and notes. Our colleague Pete Prisco drink is at the Senior Bowl. He spoke with 49ers General Manager manager John Lynch Lynch told Pete that Jimmy Garoppolo and Jarek McKinnon should be ready for the start of offseason workouts Garoppolo suffered a torn ACL in week three at Kansas City last year Jarek McKinnon did not make it to week one he suffered a torn ACL right before the start of the season so with Garoppolo I believe in the PPR draft we did a few weeks ago the first draft we did following
Starting point is 00:13:03 the end of the season, he was drafted as a number one quarterback. Do you guys have any interest in maybe moving him up into that range if we find out by training camp he's healthy? No. There are too many other quarterbacks I like better. Only if the Antonio Brown of San Francisco news becomes true. If that happens, then yes. He's probably a top eight or nine guy.
Starting point is 00:13:25 Yeah, that would certainly help. For now, I'm going to leave him around 15. If he has Marquise Goodwin and Antonio Brown, Dante Pettis, we'll see what they do with Pierre Garçon. Georgie Kittle. Obviously, Georgie Kittle and McKinnon at the back. First off, our thoughts and prayers to the Goodwin family for what they dealt with last year, losing two twins.
Starting point is 00:13:40 That's just awful. Second year in a row they've lost a child. Just a terrible, terrible situation. Hopefully Marquise Goodwin is okay. His family is okay. Again, we are thinking of you from what we do in our little part of the world. Jared McKinnon, can he creep back into the number two running back range? Last year he was borderline number one guy at one point. I know I was very high on him. Any interest in him if he's 100% healthy for training camp? I'm worried about his workload because I think the 49ers will probably pair him
Starting point is 00:14:09 with somebody else. He might be the guy that gets the most. Sure. Assuming Breida's healthy and his ankle can hold up. But you're probably looking at around – he's going to be one of the running backs with 15-touch potential, may not work at the goal line, will catch a lot of passes, will be a top four. And we had that one email last week about
Starting point is 00:14:27 the Packers running backs versus the 49ers running backs, and Heath, you said you'd rather have the 49ers guys, right? I think I said I'd rather have the Packers, but I'm not sure. Yeah, I was a Packers guy. I think both of them are going to be valuable, but I think it's going to be more McKinnon's high-end flex, Breed is a
Starting point is 00:14:43 low-end flex, and then one of those guys is going to get hurt on a semi-weekly yeah well i mean look mckinnon did make it through the 2017 season relatively unscathed when they needed him with uh with dalvin cook going down so we'll see again i think you look at the system that was why i was very high on mckinnon and the system for kyle shannon has been great uh espn reports that multiple teams are interested in kareem hunt and Bears coach, who was the former Chiefs Office Coordinator Matt Nagy, said he would be interested in a reunion with Hunt. That would probably be bad for
Starting point is 00:15:12 Jordan Howard and Tariq Cohen if that happens, but we'll see. This is how this all unfolds. The NFL Network said the length of Hunt's suspension will be determined before the start of free agency. So let's just assume at minimum it's a six-game suspension. If he does sign somewhere, where do you think he will start to come off the board?
Starting point is 00:15:31 I believe, Dave, you took him around nine or ten, I think, in the last draft. I'll double-check that right now. I think once he actually gets picked to a team, he'll go earlier. You took him around 11, so okay. Right. I'm thinking he would be around seven, around eight type. Even with a six-game suspension? Even with a six-game suspension. Even with a 6-game suspension. Round 8. Let's call it round 8.
Starting point is 00:15:47 A hard pass. Because he's not in the Andy Reid system? Well, he's not in the Andy Reid system. I think that's a justifiable reason too. But also, I think the bigger issue is if he signs with a team, they know they have to have a starting running back for 6 weeks. Especially if it's the Bears.
Starting point is 00:16:04 He's not getting 20 touches a game for the Bears, probably. So I don't think there's a very likely situation where he sits out the first six to eight weeks of the season, and then he's a workhorse back for the second half of the season. No, but it could be a, I'm just, you know, thinking right now, but like the Jets, for example, where you have an unsettled backfield, for example, with Crowell and McGuire. And, you know, clearly if he comes in with fresh legs, again, personal stuff aside, football-wise, he could easily take over that backfield. So there are some teams, I think, that could be looking to acquire somebody that,
Starting point is 00:16:36 as we saw, Damian Williams being the best example, you know, fresh legs at the end of the season could be fantastic for a running back and their fantasy value. So that's something we're going to keep an eye on throughout the course of the off season. We don't have to spend a lot of time on these notes, but I'll just say them and I'll ask you guys some questions. If you feel free to incline to comment, Alex Smith was spotted at Monday's wizards Pacers game with a giant brace
Starting point is 00:16:54 on his right leg. We know that he broke his leg and some complications with infections following the surgery. Do you anticipate Washington having a new quarterback this season? Yeah. I don't, I don't like saying yeah to that, but yeah. I do too.
Starting point is 00:17:06 It's going to be interesting to see what they do. The Cowboys part ways with offense coordinator Scott Linehan. Scott Linehan, excuse me. Jason Garrett could call plays. Does this change anything for you on Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, or Mark Cooper, or status quo? It could actually get better for all three of them. If Jason Garrett's calling the plays?
Starting point is 00:17:20 Well, if it's Kelly Moore or John Kinn. If anybody other than Scott Linehan is calling the plays. If it's Garrett, then I don't think it changes anything. If it's almost literally any other person that's ever worked in the NFL, I'd be a little more excited. I think they're talking about promoting their tight ends, Coach, which just tells me that they're going to keep the playbook and just have a different person.
Starting point is 00:17:37 Yeah, I think a lot of people are talking Kellen Moore, too, and John Kittena just joined the staff as a quarterback's coach. A lot of people are actually saying, why don't they go sign Tony Romo to be their offensive coordinator? I don't think that's going to happen. But Romo had an unbelievable game in calling the Chiefs-Patriots game. The Titans promoted tight ends coach Arthur Smith to offensive coordinator. He's replacing Matt LaFleur.
Starting point is 00:17:56 I don't think anything's going to change with the main guys, but I'll go back to a conversation we've had previously. When a tight ends coach gets promoted, does that help Delaney Walker, John DeSmith, maybe just what their outlook could be? Theoretically. Most likely Walker, obviously, coming back. Theoretically, it could help them. I don't really know a lot about Arthur Smith. He's been an assistant with the Titans through different regimes.
Starting point is 00:18:15 I think this is now his third head coach that he's worked under. Well, that's interesting. That tells me that they're going to keep the West Coast offense that they've had, and they're just having a different guy call the plays. I don't think this is ideal for Tennessee. My guess is this isn't exactly what they want. Sorry, go ahead. I'll be excited about Jonu if Delaney retires.
Starting point is 00:18:34 But if Delaney's there, I kind of feel like they're both going to play, and neither of them is going to be – one of them will be a top 12 guy, but not somebody I'm going to target. I think Delaney's probably the safer one just based on track record if he's healthy. And again, just in comparing, the Browns took a basically no-named offensive coach and made him now their head coach in Freddy Kitchens.
Starting point is 00:18:53 So it doesn't necessarily mean you have to have the pedigree of being an offense coordinator to call plays. Cameron Braid had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. He's expected to be ready by June for the start of minicamp, and we'll see what his impact is on the Bucs. They are anticipating bringing him back. We kind of said that that might be the case. They may move on from him, which could obviously still happen as well. We got an interesting email from Glenn, and he wants to know if any of us are going to the Pro Bowl.
Starting point is 00:19:15 Yes, Glenn, I will be there. And Glenn is going to the Pro Bowl. He used the promo code in SeatGeek to get great Pro Bowl tickets. He's flying down from Western Canada with his two boys, who are huge NFL and fantasy football fans. And Glenn loves listening to the podcast. Glenn, thank you very much for listening. I'll reach out to you via email, and you gave us a good segue. Let's talk about SeatGeek, because we love SeatGeek. It's a great way to save money.
Starting point is 00:19:37 And by the way, if you want to take $10 off your first SeatGeek purchase, just download the app and use the code FFT. That's code FFT for $10 off your first purchase. Like Glenn, you can use SeatGeek for all kinds of tickets. We'll be right back. Remember, you can save $10. Just download the SeatGeek app and enter the promo code FFT. That's promo code FFT for $10 off your first SeatGeek purchase. SeatGeek, life's an event. We have the tickets. Let's get to the NFC Championship game. Rams win 26-23 in overtime. Any controversy with that game?
Starting point is 00:20:19 No? Okay, so we'll move on. We've got an update from Darren Reveau. Okay. Attorney Frank D'Amico has filed a civil suit in New Orleans on behalf of Saints season ticket holders to make the right call and bring both teams back to replay the end of the game.
Starting point is 00:20:32 Yeah, I'm sure that will happen. Yeah, good luck with that. We have a co-worker, Stan Januska, whose brother-in-law is Mike Westhoff, and I spoke to Stan this morning, and he said Mike is just crushed. He's the special teams coach for the Saints. Just, you know, you feel for those guys having to lose a game that way.
Starting point is 00:20:49 I think you look at it as some of the play calling at the end of the game. Final two minutes was a little bit questionable for the Saints and how it all unfolded. But to have a blatant call like that not go their way, a year after they lose on the Minneapolis Miracle when Stephon Diggs catches what is virtually an unbelievable touchdown. So I feel for you guys in new Orleans and St. Fans,
Starting point is 00:21:08 congratulations to the Rams. Obviously you, you, you made the plays to win the game, but officiating is never a good thing when it determines the outcome. And that appears to be the case with this game. So let's talk about the Rams and the saints guys. We'll spend more time on the saints.
Starting point is 00:21:21 Jared golf goes for two 97, one and one Todd Gurley. As we talked about four catches, four carries for 10 yards and a touchdown, one catch for three yards. If you want to listen to more about Gurley, go back to the beginning of the show. C.J. Anderson, 16 carries for 44 yards, one catch for five yards on one target. Brandon Cooks, another revenge game. He has another one on the docket with the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:21:39 Seven catches for 107 yards on eight targets. Robert Woods, six catches for 33 yards on 10 targets. Josh Reynolds, four for 74 on seven targets. And then the tight ends, Gerald Everett, two for 50 on eight targets. Robert Woods, six catches for 33 yards on 10 targets. Josh Reynolds, four for 74 on seven targets. And then the tight ends, Gerald Everett, two for 50 on four targets. Tyler Higbee, four catches for 25 yards and a touchdown on four targets. Anything more to say about the Rams, guys, or we can just save that for following the Super Bowl? You can save it for following the Super Bowl,
Starting point is 00:21:58 but Jared Goff looked like a completely different quarterback after the first quarter. Really, after the fake punt, that really changed everything for the Rams. And Goff, to me, Goff, all right, fine. The reason why the Rams probably won the game is because of that call, the pass interference call. But I think Jared Goff played a really good game. The stats don't necessarily bear it out because he had 297 yards and just the one touchdown.
Starting point is 00:22:22 But I thought he played a really good game. He should have a second touchdown to Robert Woods, who tripped going at the end of the game and just the one touchdown. But I thought he played a really good game. Should have a second touchdown to Robert Woods, who tripped going at the end of the game there in the fourth quarter. I really do think that they were the better team from the second quarter on. Yep, and we'll see how they do against the Patriots. For the Saints, you have Drew Brees, 249-2-1. He did say that he will play in 2019, so that's great news to hear for him. He just turned 40.
Starting point is 00:22:46 Alvin Kamara, eight carries for 15 yards, 11 catches for 96 yards on 13 targets. Mark Ingram goes for big day. I don't even know what I wrote down here, so we'll skip Mark Ingram's stats. Nine carries, 31 yards, and two catches for six yards on two targets. Yes, thank you. I wrote nine for three, 12, and six, so I thought he went off. Michael Thomas, four catches for 36 yards on seven targets. Ted Ginn, three catches for 58 yards on six targets.
Starting point is 00:23:12 This is the last year of his deal. Ingram's going to be a free agent this offseason. He'll be 29. Traquan Smith, one catch for 10 yards on two targets. And Benjamin Watson did not play because of an illness. And unfortunately, we will never see Benjamin Watson again. He is expected to retire. So let's talk about Drew Brees next year.
Starting point is 00:23:28 Is there any thought of him being a top five quarterback going into the season? He has the chance, obviously, to finish as one, which he did this year. He passed for 3,992 yards, first time in New Orleans, going for less than 4,000 yards, 32 touchdowns and five interceptions. Now he did only play 15 games because he did not play in week 17. So your thoughts on Drew Brees? Is he just a safe number one fallback option or somebody that I have to have Drew Brees
Starting point is 00:23:52 on my fantasy team? No, I think he's the safe fallback option, but he might be the top of the quarterbacks that you would consider safe fallback options. Yeah, he is right in between that tier of guys that, man, I really want to go get him, and guys that, great, I don't have to draft a quarterback until the 10th round. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:08 He's just right in the middle. It's going to be weird. I expect he's going to be good. I don't think with their approach outdoors he has a chance to be the number one quarterback. Although he had some good moments in the game against Cincinnati, one of those that just come to mind. But he is one of those guys that as he gets older, hopefully he continues to play at a high level.
Starting point is 00:24:26 That offensive line is great. And, you know, hopefully keep that union intact. Bushrod may retire, but that's something that we have to keep an eye on. Alvin Camara, does he have a chance to crack the top four overall?
Starting point is 00:24:36 Now it looks as if the top four are probably going to be in some order. Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Camara, probably coming in at number five format, obviouslyquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Kamara probably coming in at number five. Format obviously is dependent.
Starting point is 00:24:49 They could move on from Mark Ingram. They could bring Mark Ingram back. But as they've shown us over the last couple of years, they're not afraid to add to their backfield. We didn't expect them to draft Kamara in the third round. He's obviously been a star. We didn't expect them to sign Adrian Peterson. And they made that move.
Starting point is 00:25:02 So do you anticipate them bringing in somebody else to compliment Kamara? Would that even matter to you if there's a second guy there? I would be surprised if they turned Alvin Kamara into a regular 15-carry-plus guy per week because he hasn't really been that for them. He's had some games with 15 or over 15 carries. Well, this is – I mean, again, he didn't play Week 17 either, so this is essentially a 200-carry season for him and back-to-back years of 81 catches.
Starting point is 00:25:28 So he's essentially going to be 275 total touches. That puts him, I think it keeps him right at five. No chance of jumping the other four. I don't think he jumps McCaffrey. They're kind of the same guy, but at least we've seen Carolina commit to McCaffrey. For them to commit to Kamara, they'd have to do... They'd have to get rid of Mark Ingram. They wouldn't have to
Starting point is 00:25:50 bring in another back. So if it's the Dwayne Washington and Mike Gillislees... It could end up being Dwayne Washington. It could end up being some undrafted guy that we just don't know about yet. It could be Taysom Hill. Well, I think that Kamara... Unless they just absolutely go all in and make it clear that they're going to feature him, he's going to be number five overall.
Starting point is 00:26:10 Yeah, or if Todd Gurley has a major procedure. Sure. Those are the only things. Okay, so five right now, assuming the four are fine in front of him, is the ceiling for Kamara. He may be behind a couple guys, too. That goes without saying as well. Which, by the way, makes for a pretty good number five overall pick on draft day. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:26:31 It's not a bad place to pick. Michael Thomas coming off an amazing season. 125 catches for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns on 147 targets he caught. I believe it's 85% of his targets that were thrown to him. I think it's 85 percent of his uh targets that were thrown to him i think it's higher than that why not thomas as the number one fantasy wide receiver going into next year because i think we all have in some order uh at least dave as of now antonio brown but uh brown i have davante adams and you have deandre hopkins why not michael thomas ahead of those guys
Starting point is 00:27:02 touchdowns i think that's really it. And he scored nine this year, which certainly isn't a bad year, but he still hasn't had a double digit season. And that's not saying that he can't, but it does seem like the Saints, a little bit like the Falcons, like to spread it around a little bit once they get inside the red zone. And I think that's the only thing holding him back. And what did you talk about with Drew Brees when he goes on the road? When he's outdoors, it's a different type of mindset from the Saints' offense. And I think that hurts Michael Thomas' upside a little bit.
Starting point is 00:27:30 Yeah, I mean, again, I don't think you're going to be upset with Michael Thomas on your fantasy team, but the other two guys or three guys, depending on how you view it, touchdowns, I think for all of us will be a top five wide receiver. Oh, yeah, I may even have him in PPR. I think he should probably be number two. Yeah, I mean, he's pencilman for 100-plus catches.
Starting point is 00:27:47 It's just a matter of how high he goes there. And we'll see if Ted Ginn stays healthy, Trey Kwan Smith takes the next step. We know how they tweak this receiving core a little bit. But Michael Thomas is locked in. And as we know, you can't guard Mike. Before we get to the AFC Championship game, let's talk a little bit about Robinhood.
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Starting point is 00:29:01 Heath, you want to leave the room for this one? No, I'm good. Okay, Patriots beat the Chiefs 37-31 in overtime. For the Patriots, Tom Brady, 348 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions. Again, he's going to his ninth Super Bowl. Just absolutely unbelievable. Sonny Michel, 29 carries, 113 yards, and two touchdowns. I want to talk about Michel in a minute, but I'll just run through the stats.
Starting point is 00:29:21 Rex Burkhead, 12 for 41 and two touchdowns, four catches for 23 yards on four targets james white six for 23 on the ground four for 49 on six targets julian edelman seven catches for 96 yards on 10 targets it just seemed like he was open on every crucial play rob gronkowski six for 79 on 11 targets grock was not ready to retire uh philip dorsett we told you he had a chance to play well not the best game but did find the end zone on one catch for 29 yards with three targets. And Chris Hogan also had some big catches, five for 45 on seven targets. So Sonny Michel has dominated the playoffs, five touchdowns in two games. He is as much as Rex Burkhead played well in terms of his, you know, finding the end zone 12 for 41 for him.
Starting point is 00:30:00 This was Michel carrying this backfield once again. Why not Sonny Michel being considered as a number one running back next year, especially non-PPR, and maybe comparing him to Nick Chubb or Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon or now Damien Williams? Is the hesitation because he doesn't catch the ball very much? Or at all. Well, and not just that, but he's also not guaranteed to get the goal line carries. Eight catches this regular season and postseason combined
Starting point is 00:30:25 for sony michelle i think i think if rex burkhead moves on sony michelle will probably be feature back type guy in new england where he could certainly have some weeks with big time workloads over 20 touches and working the goal line this was his best this was his best road game. Most of his big games have come at home. Now, granted, young player. Again, he's kind of pigeonholed into this role. I think you could see his passing game work expand a little bit, but never to the point where it's going to be, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:55 he's Alvin Kamara, obviously. But he could be a 25-catch guy, 30-catch guy. I think things work out in an optimal situation for him. Yeah, and I like the fact that obviously his last two games, 53 carries combined, at least 24 carries in each of the games. That's helped him get five touchdowns, but he's had 15 or more carries in three, four, five, six of his last eight. So you know that he can handle that feature-type job in New England.
Starting point is 00:31:20 That offensive line is only going to get better. They're going to have – what's the rookie that got hurt? They took a rookie in the first round to tackle, and I'm just blanking on his name right now. You know who I'm talking about. And the kid from San Francisco replaced him. They'll be back, and that line will be stronger. And I think he's going to be a huge part of this offense moving forward.
Starting point is 00:31:40 And you talked about this, Heath, in terms of Brady's fantasy value, that if they don't upgrade the receiving core, let's say Gronk does retire, it's Edelman, it's Dorsett, they bring in somebody mid-level type of guy that goes through the Patriots car wash and maybe becomes good but not great, they could go back to what they were in the earlier days of this Super
Starting point is 00:31:56 Bowl run, which was run heavy. That's what they've been here, yeah. Especially what we've seen. I mean, look, Brady does have back-to-back 300-plus games, 300-plus yard games, and he closed Week 17 with a 300-yard game. Isaiah went. Isaiah went. That's the tackle guy. And his teammate at Georgia. So, I mean,
Starting point is 00:32:12 could this be Sonny Michel as maybe, I don't want to say the best Patriots fantasy option next year, but the best Patriots fantasy option next year? Well, who would you take ahead of him on draft day? Nobody. No. He would be the Patriots. I mean, Edelman, maybe PPR, potentially. I don't think he would get that high, but that's kind of in there.
Starting point is 00:32:28 I think the two things that scare people off from going after Sonny Michel is, number one, the fact that he hasn't effectively caught the ball on a regular basis. Sure. And two, he's a Patriots running back. And you know that it could be a fumble in week two, and we don't see him again until week eight. So for the Chiefs, you have Mahomes, 295-3. Damian Williams we talked about again.
Starting point is 00:32:48 If you want to listen to more on him, go back to the beginning of the show. Tyree Kill, disappointing game, one catch for 42 yards on three targets. Travis Kelsey did score, only had five targets, three catches for 23 yards. Sammy Watkins was the big performer in the receiving core, four catches for 114 yards on eight targets. He did have a long catch of 54 yards. So for the Chiefs, I mean, I think we kind of know who they are outside of what Damian Williams could be, if, in fact, he's the feature guy.
Starting point is 00:33:13 It's more, I think, for their fantasy value for 2019 is where they will go. So what's the earliest you would consider drafting these guys? Are they all second-round picks in an optimal situation? In an optimal situation, I'm taking them home to where I did in our last mock draft, which was beginning round three. I think Kelsey should... Is he a first-round pick in PPR? He's definitely a first-round pick in tight end premium,
Starting point is 00:33:38 which a lot of the high-stakes leagues are. I think Tyreek is a mid-to-late second, most likely, and Kelsey's a high end second. So I want to before we get into Sammy Watkins, just a couple scenarios, because again, I think Tyreek Hill is going to be a second round pick. Maybe early third, but that's kind of the range for him, regardless.
Starting point is 00:33:55 Kind of that same range where we're kind of looking at Mahomes. At least in the second draft. I think so. I think you look at Tyreek Hill is going to be anywhere from probably number six to ten ranked among my receivers. I don't think he's going to creep into the top five. I don't think he's going to fall past ten. So you kind of know what he is.
Starting point is 00:34:14 And in a 12-team draft, somewhere between 20th overall and 30th overall. Is that safe to say? I think it's higher than that. I think it's before 30th most of the time. I think between 20th and 25th. Will it be before 20th? 18 to 26. I think that's closer. I think that's going to be the same the time. I think between 20th and 25th. Well, it would be before 20th. 18 to 26. I think that's closer.
Starting point is 00:34:26 I think that's going to be the same kind of range for Mahomes too. I want to give you a couple of scenarios for Mahomes and Kelsey. So this is using our most recent draft. So would you rather have this scenario? Would you rather have Patrick Mahomes in the third round and DJ Moore in the seventh round? Or Sonny Michel in the third round and Drew Brees in the seventh round? Which combination would you rather have?
Starting point is 00:34:48 Don't everybody answer it once. Well, I'm kind of processing it. I think I'd probably go Michel Brees. I think that that's probably the best for the bottom line of just scoring points on your fantasy team. But the biggest difference maker in the group is going to be Mahomes. Potentially, depending on the regression. And obviously, Sonny Michel, as we just talked about, has a ceiling that we may not have seen yet if he decides that, or if they let him be more involved in the passing game.
Starting point is 00:35:13 The Mahomes, DJ Moore, I don't know if you recall this, Heath, that's what you did. You took Mahomes in the third, DJ Moore in the seventh. It wasn't actually Michel in the third, I believe it was, but it was Breeze in the seventh. I think I just moved up. It was Marlon Mack. I don't think it would be as exciting if it was Marlon Mack. So that's why I changed it a little bit. Alright, another scenario is Travis Kelce in the second
Starting point is 00:35:30 round and Kenyon Drake in the sixth. And we're talking non-PPR here, but it can be PPR as well. Or Hunter Henry in the sixth round and Dalvin Cook in the second. So we either have the tight end premium or the running back premium here. In this case, the tight end premium. So Kelsey and Kenyon Drake supersedes. If I change the running back, I might change my answer.
Starting point is 00:35:47 Yeah, I'd rather go Cook and Henry because of the running back Drake. And Henry, again, he could get to a point where he's not Kelsey, but maybe not far off. I would take Michelle and Breeze and Henry and Cook myself just because I think their value is a little bit better for the running back in that scenario and the running back versus receiver in the first scenario. All right, so Sammy Watkins comes off a season where he did not play the final five games,
Starting point is 00:36:08 but he had 40 catches for 519 yards and three touchdowns on 55 targets. We kind of talked about him a little bit. I took him. You guys are going to spend a little bit of time on this draft on our next show on Thursday. I took him in round 10. I think he was the fourth receiver I drafted. You see him going higher than that in most scenarios just based on what the upside could be yeah how high round six round seven i think i think six seven as a high end number three wide receiver and there's a lot of upside for sammy
Starting point is 00:36:35 watkins if he could have a year where he stayed healthy but we don't see sammy watkins stay healthy very often if he can have a year where he stays healthy uh if the sky is blue uh yeah that's obviously the key with sammy wat. But you saw the upside. This was his best game in terms of yards as a Chief. So hopefully this is something he could build on. He seemed like he was limping around a little bit too at the end of the game. Probably the foot bothering him. We'll find out, I'm sure, if there's going to be a procedure coming
Starting point is 00:36:55 up for him. The answer is yes. For him, it seems like there's one every option. Alright, so let's talk about the winningest players from 2018 right after this. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone
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Starting point is 00:38:16 Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. So the winningest players, what we typically do with this, I'll write the story on this in a couple weeks following the Super Bowl, is these are the players that contributed to the most wins for your fantasy team. It does not necessarily mean championships,
Starting point is 00:38:46 but these players were on rosters that had the highest win percentage. I know we talk about this usually year over year. It could be a little bit confusing. I understand that. But these are the players that had the highest win percentage. Does that make sense in what I'm saying, how I'm describing it? Yeah, you got it. So I'm going to give you the top 20 overall,
Starting point is 00:39:01 and then we'll get into some of the positions. But the top 20 overall highest win percentage guys are Damian Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Jamal Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Robbie Anderson, Dante Pettis, James Conner, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey, Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen, Jalen Samuels, Alvin Kamara, Devante Adams, Elijah McGuire, Zach Ertz, Juju Smith-Schuster, Melvin Gordon, and Spencer Ware. I'll just go through again quickly. Williams, Mahomes, Gurley, Jamal Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Anderson Pettis, Connor Hill, Kelsey Barkley, Thielen, Samuels, Kamara, Adams, McGuire, Ertz, Juju, Gordon, and Ware. And so what you hear on that list is several waiver wire guys that were added at the end of the season to successful fantasy rosters. So Damian and Jamal Williams, Robbie Anderson, Pettis, Samuels, McGuire, and Ware. I don't think we stress enough how much the waiver wire means the difference in winning your fantasy leagues.
Starting point is 00:39:55 We don't? We talk about it, but I don't think – people get so amped up about the draft and I have to have a good draft and my draft is the biggest key. This shows you that you can find guys late as long as you're, I mean, didn't you, was this year or last year you had a team that was a sub 500, you won a championship? It seems right, yeah. Yeah, I mean, you can kind of just get by and then you add the right guys toward the end of the season and it makes such a huge difference. I had one of those sub 500 team in the regular season. Then I made a run with Damian Williams.
Starting point is 00:40:23 Oh, yeah, I beat you in the championship. Right, but there was even another league. I guess I just absolutely sucked in the regular season in a bunch of my leagues, but there was another league where I made the championship and I won that one. Playing the waiver wire is crucial. You can't just draft and then slack off. I don't think the people listening
Starting point is 00:40:39 to our show do that, but again, I think it's just, you know, you can still be very successful as these guys show you. It's got to be the number one secret to fantasy football. It might be a little instructive to think of it as maybe you should focus on the first four weeks of the season a little more when you're drafting. That's a great point, is, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:57 try and get the guys that have good schedules early and be successful that way. And then the problem with that, though, is if you're successful early, you don't have the waiver claims if it's not draft. If you're not in the fab, right. So it kind of hurts you successful that way. And then the problem with that, though, is if you're successful early, you don't have the waiver claims if it's not draft. If you're not a fab, right. So it kind of hurts you in that regard. All right, so let's go a little bit by position here.
Starting point is 00:41:10 So the top five quarterbacks based on win percentage, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston. That kind of goes to what we were just saying. The highest drafted guy of that list was Big Ben. This is going by CBS Sports ADP. He was in round six everyone else was round nine or later and in lamar jackson's case and i'm sure at times with james winston
Starting point is 00:41:30 waiver wire guys so um again waiting on a quarterback tends to prove itself right once again just in terms of this particular data it's gonna be so hard this year yeah it really is because we've done two it'll be one guy i mean think you see Rodgers and Luck, at least in our two drafts, didn't go until round five. But even then, you know that there's going to be great quarterbacks later on. It's waiting for those guys, but you'll know before you pick those guys. Am I really so in love with Rodgers or Luck that I can't wait to get a breeze two rounds later or a golf four rounds later?
Starting point is 00:42:02 Something like that. It's going to be something that we wrestle with. Yep, it'll be an interesting conversation once again. And quarterback just keeps getting better and better with, as we talked about earlier, guys like Garoppolo coming back healthy. And we'll see what Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, these young guys are able to do in year number two. The top five running backs, Damian Williams, Todd Gurley, Jamal Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and James Conner. I want to talk about the Steelers guys for a second because we anticipate Le'Veon Bell being gone and Conner and Samuels.
Starting point is 00:42:34 Do we see maybe a committee coming for those guys or is it going to be just the James Conner show like it's been the Le'Veon Bell show and the Steelers just kind of do what they do? I think it will be Conner with a little bit of Samuels. Yeah, I don't think the Steelers know how of do what they do. I think it'll be Connor with a little bit of Samuels. Yeah. I don't think the Steelers know how to have a committee. I mean, uh,
Starting point is 00:42:49 true, but is Connor did enough in our minds to solidify himself as the guy, as the Le'Veon Belair going into training camp? I think the answer is yes. It is fair to say that if Connor doesn't look sharp in training camp and Samuels does, you know, Samuels now has a full off season to work on his game.
Starting point is 00:43:06 Remember how he didn't have a game with like 15 carries since high school or even maybe in his life, something like that, where he never had a lot of carries. I don't remember exactly what the number was, but I know that he wasn't a very experienced running back put into a position where he has to be the featured back for an NFL team. And he did great. So I I'm interested to see how he progresses. And if he does really well and he goes to La Trobe next July and he looks great, they could figure out a way
Starting point is 00:43:34 to make a committee out of those two. And one thing that we didn't really talk about, which could be an impact on Jalen Samuels, is the Steelers have hired their new running backs coach was the running backs coach from NC State where Jalen Samuels played. Interesting. That is interesting. So we'll see if – or was he the tight ends coach at NC State?
Starting point is 00:43:56 He knows Jalen Samuels. Either way, he knows Jalen. He knows Jalen Samuels. So that's something to just keep in mind. And if James Conner struggles at any point, we could see Jalen Samill's game at work. Top five wide receivers based on win percentage, Robbie Anderson, Dante Pettis, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, and Devontae Adams. So Robbie Anderson and Pettis are two guys, I think,
Starting point is 00:44:15 that have, as we saw, a ton of upside. How much upside, though, will you consider them, or how much value will you place on them going into next year, given that Anderson has a new coach with Adam Gase and Sam Darnold getting better, and Dante Pettis, hopefully a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo? These guys that could be number two wide receivers or more number three with the quote-unquote upside tag next to them?
Starting point is 00:44:36 I think they could both be number two wide receivers. I think Pettis, especially if they don't go at a number one, has an excellent chance to be a top 25. So if it's Goodwin, Pettis, Garcon, that would be all. Or they could even add somebody for Garcon and just make a good slot guy, like Adam Humphries or something like that. Gotcha. But wouldn't that be bad, though, for Pettis?
Starting point is 00:44:54 That would be bad for Pettis because he needs to be in the slots. They can add an outside guy that's not a number one. Does he have to be in the slots? I don't know if he has to be. His most success came when he was the de facto slot guy once Garcon was out. So it would make sense to keep him in the slot because he's got experience there. He did that in college. I keep thinking about Antonio Brown going there and just...
Starting point is 00:45:12 Oh, he could ruin it. Just drawing up targets for Dante Pettis. He'd get great coverage. Well, I mean, let's be fair. We've seen number two guys, the high end of Juju, and some guys in the mid-level next to Antonio Brown, like Martavis Bryant at times. There could still be successful number two guys opposite antonio brown and let's keep in mind it'd be a whole new system for brown a whole new offense for brown
Starting point is 00:45:32 quarterback for brown so it wouldn't necessarily be like status quo for him but yeah i think dante pettis probably has the higher ceiling although robbie anderson as we saw with with what sam donald showed to him showed him if everything goes right his ceiling would certainly supersede what Dante Pesce does. I'm sorry, this is very confusing right there. Right, especially if the Jets don't add another receiver. And they already extended Quincy Anunua, so I don't think they probably do. I think it's probably going to be Robbie Anderson, Quincy Anunua, and one other guy.
Starting point is 00:45:56 I don't think they're adding a number one. Well, they have a lot of money to spend. They could. And the reason why they could is because I think Anunua goes back to the slot. Oh, for sure. And Anderson stays outside, so then they would need another outside guy. And the hope would be is that you get, in terms of Adam Gase, you get high-end Kenny Stills numbers from Robbie Anderson
Starting point is 00:46:15 and certainly what Sam Darnold started to do with Robbie Anderson toward the end of the season. The top five tight ends, based on win percentage, Travis Kelsey, Zach Ertz, George Kittleittle eric ebron and then the surprise cameron bright of the tight ends that we're looking at this is kind of a broad question is there one guy you think that cracks the top four because i think the top three are going to be kind of locked in is ebron going to be drafted as the number four guy because now oj howard may have a little bit of a downgrade we don't know about hunter henry is there somebody else that
Starting point is 00:46:41 you're looking at that is kind of off the radar a little bit that could be a top five tight end next year? Well, I think Henry definitely has the best chance as long as he gets through this offseason healthy. I think Henry could be right up there with Kaelin Hurts. It's hard to stump for O.J. Howard. He's coming off an injury. Bruce Arian's track record certainly has not featured the tight end like others, although he was in Pittsburgh when Heath Miller had some good years. And this is a much better athlete.
Starting point is 00:47:07 I think Bruce would tell Byron Leff. Remember, Bruce isn't calling the plays anymore. It's Byron Leff, so it's going to be Bruce telling Byron what to do. I think they will find ways to make O.J. Howard a good tight end, but I don't know if it's enough to put him ahead of Hunter Henry. Yeah, and we'll see if Ebron can avoid the regression that I'm sure you're going to predict for him coming into 2019. So as there's usually good, there's also bad. So I just wanted to run through the bottom 10 overall in terms of win percentage,
Starting point is 00:47:37 and there's probably no surprise with some of the names on this list. Duke Johnson, this is in descending order. So Duke Johnson, Jordan Reed, Sammy Watkins, Devin Funches, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Isaiah Crowell, LaShawn McCoy, Deshaun Jackson, and Michael Crabtree. Obviously, Brady was a disappointment based on where we thought he would be going into the season. Top three, top five overall quarterback. McCoy, we kind of warned you, could be some red flags for him. That actually happened. Jordan Reed, health.
Starting point is 00:48:05 I don't think there's a lot of big surprises on this list. Any of these guys, though, you look at going into 2019 and say, I'll buy back in just based on either history, track record, or situation. No. Maybe Sammy. But just as a seventh or eighth round pick. And if Deshaun Jackson stays in Tampa or goes to a situation like he goes to San Francisco, that would be a nice fit.
Starting point is 00:48:27 He played at Cal, so I'm sure going back out there would be something he might be interested in. He could be. In going with a young offense. So he could have some moments. And Crabtree also, if he ends up in the right situation. I don't think if he stays in Baltimore, that's going to be the case based on what we saw last season. So we'll see how this all unfolds for a lot of these guys. It would be nice to see Jordan Reed stay healthy, but at this point you can't expect that to happen. All right, let's get some
Starting point is 00:48:47 emails here. This one comes to us from Matt in a small town, Matt from a town in central Massachusetts. So dear Belichick, Parcells, and Barry. Hmm. Tough one. Patriots coaches. I'm playing in a playoff challenge. We can only use a player once for the duration of the playoff. So basically it was an advantage to use players on teams that lost. Going into the Super Bowl, I've already used Brady, White, Sonny Michelle, Edelman, Gronk, and Robert Woods. That means he has the opportunity to use Goff, Cooks, and Gurley. I'm sorry. That means he has Goff, Cooks, and Gurley locked into his lineup.
Starting point is 00:49:20 So choose four from these for one wide receiver, one running back, one tight end, and one flex C.J. Anderson, Rex Burkhead, Josh Reynolds, Chris Hogan Phillip Dorsett, Cordero Patterson, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higby Or James Dedlin, he also said wild card, Johnny Hecker I'm sure that's a joke Alright, so choose one wide receiver from Josh Reynolds, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, or Cordero Patterson I'll take Dorsett, I'll go Reynolds Okay, I'm going to Philip Dorsett, or Cordero Patterson?
Starting point is 00:49:45 I'll take Dorsett. I'll go Reynolds. Okay. I'm going to go Dorsett also just based on what his targets have been. This is now. I think they go after Marcus Peters. He's got six games on the season with at least five targets, and four of them he's gotten 14 more PPR points. So he's been successful in that regard.
Starting point is 00:49:57 All right. So pick a running back out of C.J. Anderson or Rex Burkett. C.J. Anderson. Anderson. That's the easy one. One tight end out of Gerald Everett or Tyler Higby?
Starting point is 00:50:08 Flip a coin. Dave's going to make a guess. I'm going to guess on Higby. Okay. I'll see plays more. I'm going to go Everett just based on upside. Flex. Flex.
Starting point is 00:50:20 So I'm going to guess the choices are Rex Burkett, Reynolds, Dorsett. Reynolds. Well, no Dorsett. Reynolds. Well, no, you already took Reynolds, so you're taking Burkhead. How about Hogan? You're taking Burkhead? You're taking Hogan? I'll take Hogan. I'll take Reynolds since I took Dorsett with the first one.
Starting point is 00:50:37 All right. Next email comes to us from Dave from a city in Oregon. Eugene. Eugene. Eugene. All right. Good morning, Corey, Sean, Topanga, and Mr. Feeney. Boy Meets World. There you go.
Starting point is 00:50:52 First, I want to thank all four of you for the insight that helped me win my first title in my most important league, so we're glad to help you out there. He's the commissioner, so it's also bittersweet because I collected the dues and turned them into nickels, so there's 80 pounds of first-place payout in nickels on my table that I don't get to pawn off into another owner. Fantastic. I've got to keep your question for you. Keep two in the round.
Starting point is 00:51:12 I previously drafted them at two years penalty. So it's 12 team PPR, two, two running backs, three wide receivers, one flex. Uh, what's four points for passage,
Starting point is 00:51:22 four points for pass touchdown. Thank you. So he's got to pick two out of Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Zach Ertz, Tom Brady, Mark Ingram, Kerryon Johnson, or James Conner. Now, Julio would cost him a first-round pick. Evans a second-round pick. Ertz a third-round pick.
Starting point is 00:51:38 Brady a fourth-round pick. Ingram a fifth-round pick. Kerryon an eighth-round pick. Or James Conner a 14th-round pick. And he's leaning Ertz Conner right now. I would go carry on Conner. I think I'd go there's no specials. You don't have to have a tight end, right?
Starting point is 00:51:55 Two running backs, three wide receivers, one flex. Does not have to have a tight end. Carry on and Conner. Yeah, again, you can keep them, assuming I'm reading this right. So carry on and cost a sixth-round pick next year? It says two years without penalty. Oh, two years without penalty. Okay, so yeah, carry on in the eighth round and Connor in the fourth round.
Starting point is 00:52:10 I would go that route as well. All right, next email comes to us from Ian from a city not even in the top 30 rainiest cities. Not even in the top 30s of rainiest cities? Good guess, Heath. Thanks. All right, Heli, D'Angelo, Gabe, Joe, and Robert. I was going the top 30 of Urania cities. Good guess, Heath. Thanks. All right. Hell yeah. D'Angelo, Gabe, Joe, and Robert.
Starting point is 00:52:27 I was going to guess like Death Valley or something. He told us it was Seattle. D'Angelo, Gabe, Joe, and Robert. Any guesses? I don't think I know this one. All right. We'll move on. He loves the January pods.
Starting point is 00:52:42 You guys are doing a great job. Without Adam, thank you. We hope Adam comes back soon. 12-team half-point PPR league. He loves the January pods. You guys are doing a great job without Adam. Thank you. We hope Adam comes back soon. 12-team half-point PPR league. I can keep three players. Their cost is two rounds higher than the previous year for up to three years. Undrafted players from last year cost a 12th-round pick. With 36 players being kept, it eliminates a lot of the second-tier players from the draft pool,
Starting point is 00:53:00 moving everybody's ADP up. With that being said, not sure if I would be able to get Carrion back in the third round. So he's got Carrion Johnson as one of the choices. He does have two first round picks and two third round picks, probably around 6th and 10th. So with that in mind, would you keep Jarek McKinnon as a 12th round pick this year, Derrick Henry as a 4th round pick,
Starting point is 00:53:17 Carrion Johnson as a 3rd round pick, Aaron Jones as a 6th round pick, or Gus Edwards as a 12th round pick? Pick two of those. I'll tell you what, I'm tempted to keep Jarek at that price. I'm sorry, keep three of those. So which one are you throwing back? Well, there's five. I don't think we're keeping Gus Edwards, even though it's pretty
Starting point is 00:53:35 cheap. I'm not keeping Kerry on either. For the third round pick, I think that's a little too rich. So McKinnon in the twelfth, Henry in the fourth, and Aaron Jones in the sixth. Oh, and D'Angelo, Gabe, Joe, and Robert are from the office. From the office. Okay. There you go.
Starting point is 00:53:48 Had one who got that one. All right. From Julian. Julian is from where, Dave? Julian is from Rapid City, South Dakota. All right. Julian from Rapid City, South Dakota. 10-team PPR, Superflex Dynasty League.
Starting point is 00:54:01 He came in second last year. Grade the trade. I traded Marvin Jones,ones cooper cup and the first number nine overall in the 2019 draft for james winston hunter henry and a 2020 first so i gave up marvin jones cooper cup and 1.09 to get james winston hunter henry and a 2021st i think i like it a lot. I originally did not like it. Looking at his roster, I like it more.
Starting point is 00:54:32 So his roster is, and remember, super flex. So he's got Breeze, Mayfield, and Case Keenum. So he can play Breeze and Mayfield. Chubb, Tevin Coleman, Carlos Hyde, Kenneth Dixon, Ty Montgomery, Jalen Samuels, Spencer Ware, Alex Collins, Ido Smith, and C.J. Anderson running back. Hopkins, Jones. Hopkins, Julio. Stephon Diggs, Marvin Jones is now gone.
Starting point is 00:54:56 So the thing I like about this is he's got Hopkins, Julio, and Diggs as his three wide receivers. Right, with Anthony Miller and Josh Reynolds as well. And his tight ends were Jared Cook and Vance McDonald, and now we've got Hunter Henry in a dynasty. Now he has Hunter Henry. He has Jameis Winston now as a third quarterback option. And he's giving up Marvin Jones and Cooper Cupp. And we don't know how healthy Cooper Cupp could be.
Starting point is 00:55:13 And by the time the ninth overall pick comes, there may not be anybody good there. So I like the trade as well. I'm going to give it a B. I'll go B-. B-. Dave will not grade it. Fitz from a suburb of Detroit.
Starting point is 00:55:26 Is it Bloomington Hills? Sounds good to me. Dear Carson, Josh, Kurt, and Jake. Those are Cardinals quarterbacks. Those are Cardinals quarterbacks. Why is David Johnson ranked so high every year? Yes, they have a new coaching staff, but it's far from proven. The offensive line is terrible.
Starting point is 00:55:42 They don't have many weapons to take the pressure off of him. And the defense can't stop anyone to use DJ to protect the lead. He shouldn't be ranked ahead of guys like James Conner, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and even Kerryon Johnson next year. I think we're all kind of in agreement with that. Are we not? You're taking David Johnson ahead of Conner? I would definitely take David Johnson ahead of Kerryon.
Starting point is 00:56:02 That's about the only one. I don't think I had him ranked ahead of the other guys. I don't remember. I don't remember if I did either. I don't think I will in March. He did finish as a top 12 running back last year. He was also pretty inconsistent. Right, but the hope would be is that Kingsbury turns things around with the offense,
Starting point is 00:56:19 that the offensive line does get somewhat of an upgrade, and that Josh Rosen takes the next step. I mean, we've seen that with guys going into their second year. And, again, I'm not going to compare Josh Rosen to Jared Goff, but think about how bad Todd Gurley was his second season and how great he was his third season when he had a coaching upgrade and an improved quarterback. So if the offensive line can get any semblance of help,
Starting point is 00:56:37 I think David Johnson has bounce-back material, maybe even like an angry bird. Hey, Birch, Pine, Oak, and Hickory, this is Seth from Nebraska. Dave, pick a city in Nebraska. Omaha. Okay. Currently has Hunter Henry, Trey Burton, and Mark Andrews for my full PPR dynasty team at tight end.
Starting point is 00:56:54 Should I try to make a move to get Kelsey or Ertz, or do you think that Henry, Burton, or Andrews can ever move into that top tier? So essentially we don't know what his team is, but would you try and mortgage some talent at another position to upgrade from henter henry to get to travis kelsey i'm thinking you'd have to give up henry plus something very good to get one of those two tight ends depends on what that something else is um i i don't think burton's ever going to make it. I'm skeptical that Andrews will be a top-tier fantasy tight end. And Henry's got great potential to do it.
Starting point is 00:57:31 So basically, if you don't have to overpay, it might be worth exploring. Right, but the problem is with those tight ends, especially in a long-term meet, you're going to have to overpay. Let's go back to that previous deal. Let's say it's Hunter, Henry, Cooper, Kupp, and 1.09. If you're the Travis Kelsey owner, do you do it? You need a receiver. I'm giving up Henry Hunter Henry Cooper Cup in 1.09. If you're the Travis Kelsey owner, do you do it? You need a receiver. I'm giving up Henry Cup in 1.09. Let's say
Starting point is 00:57:49 Henry Cup, Marvin Jones in 1.09. All for? For Travis Kelsey. Nah, I don't think so. I don't think it's got to be more than that. Unless Hunter Henry's 100%. Because I'm going to guess he's probably a year or two younger than Travis Kelsey. You're getting two receivers. Depending, I guess, on how
Starting point is 00:58:04 inept your receiving core may be. But yeah, I'm probably keeping Travis Kelsey, and you're getting two receivers, depending, I guess, on how inept your receiving core may be. But, yeah, I'm probably keeping Travis Kelsey as well. All right. This is Brian from a city in northeastern Pennsylvania. Susquehanna. Q, Bishop, Steele, and Raheem. You got me. Anything?
Starting point is 00:58:21 Nothing. All right. We know that Andy Dalton is not Big Ben, but assuming AJ Green is healthy, do you believe Tyler Boyd could be the 2019 Juju Smith-Schuster? Not quite the 2019 Juju. First off, he's not Juju Smith-Schuster. Right. And he doesn't have been.
Starting point is 00:58:37 So, no. But it's not like Tyler Boyd was bad by any stretch. No, I think he's going to be. Right. If you want to say poor man's Juju Smith-Schuster, I think that's a very fair comparison. He also has another question. Do you guys believe
Starting point is 00:58:48 it's time for Evan Ingram to leapfrog Sterling Shepard an offensive priority for the Giants since when he gets opportunities, he's shown to be a better threat than Shepard? You know, I thought
Starting point is 00:58:56 that he would have the chance to do that going into training camp this past season. And then he got hurt and I shied away. And I'm worried about it being fool's gold, the way that he finished this year, not being exactly a great contributor.
Starting point is 00:59:15 I'm going to take a look back and just see how he did. But I think Sterling Shepard is who he is. I think he will make occasional flash plays, but is otherwise just a good hand type of short. I think the question from Brian is, can Ingram become the second option in the passing game? And that's what we would hope to see, because then we have another option in a position that definitely needs it. So we'll just kind of wait and see.
Starting point is 00:59:34 I think Ingram is going to be a low end, number one tight end, just based on how the position shakes out. The upside is there. Hopefully the production follows. Bradley from Melbourne, Australia wants to know, Dear Hayne, Dixon, Wilkinson, and Melada? Melada? Oh, yeah, those are all Australian NFL players.
Starting point is 00:59:52 Yes, Heath is on point with these calls here. I play in a dynasty league with 25 roster spots each year. They keep 16 of those 25. I picked up Josh Adams from the waivers during the season and the future looked bright. Come playoff time, he faded away like Marty McFly in Back to the Future 2. What's the deal with Josh Adams? I'm going to guess Josh Adams
Starting point is 01:00:12 is going to have to fight for a roster spot. I agree. I don't think that's going to be one of your top 16. Bradley? The best Eagles running back is probably not on their roster right now. Unless they bring back Ajayi, but I would agree with you. Most likely they're going to upgrade that position. This next one,
Starting point is 01:00:28 our last email, DSP from Bull City, North Carolina. Wants to know, he's the reigning champion of a 14-team half-point PPR Keeper League. Thank you guys for your fantastic commentary in leading me to secure my first fantasy championship this year. Nice.
Starting point is 01:00:43 His question is, which of the three players should I keep? Each player kept is equal to losing a first, second, or third round pick. So keep three of the following. Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, Stefan Diggs, Phillip Lindsey, Dalvin Cook, and James Conner. Remember, he has to give up his first three picks for three of these guys. So Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, Stefan Diggs, Phillip Lindsey, Dalvin Cook, and James Conner. Cook and Conner for sure. To me, it's down
Starting point is 01:01:12 between Tyreek Hill and T.Y. Hilton. I think if T.Y. is still the number one guy in Indianapolis, i.e. they don't bring in Antonio Brown, I'll keep him. I think I'd rather have Tyreek. You keep the same two running backs? Yeah. So, Cook, Connor,
Starting point is 01:01:30 Tyreek. Yep. If it's full PPR, I'd probably go Hilton. Half PPR, I think Tyreek Hill probably has a little bit more upside, just given the fact that Mahomes is just ridiculous. I just worry a little bit. Hilton had a lot of injuries this year. He turns 30 next year. And didn't score touchdowns.
Starting point is 01:01:47 Tyreek's going to be maddeningly inconsistent from time to time, but we just talked about how he was one of the top five most owned wide receivers on championship teams. I think I'm with you on that one. Again, full PPR, I'd probably go T.Y. Hilton. You could also consider keeping one of the running backs. Keep both those receivers,
Starting point is 01:02:01 and then you're in great shape as well. You have a lot of talented players. It's understandable why you won your league. So I am out for a little bit. I will be at the Pro Bowl. I think I will talk to you guys from the Super Bowl. I will be doing the Pick 6 podcast for those of you that listen to that as well. I'll be doing that all week from Atlanta.
Starting point is 01:02:17 But I'm headed to the Pro Bowl. You guys will be doing a show on Thursday, and then Adam is back on Monday. I hope to talk to you from the Super Bowl. I think it will be a lot of fun. But if I don't speak to you for those two shows next week, I'm going to be out for a little bit, taking some vacation.
Starting point is 01:02:32 So it's been fun. I appreciate you guys helping me out with Adam not here, and I appreciate everybody listening. Hopefully we didn't ruin your ears, your eardrums, and this has been a lot of fun. So for Dave, for Heath, I'm Jamie. Gotta go back.

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