Fantasy Football Today - 01/27: More Projections, Senior Bowl Thoughts, Fantasy Football in the Future (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 27, 2020

We'll give a quick thought on a matchup that could decide the Super Bowl (2:24) before we look ahead to the future of Fantasy Football (7:05). What will Fantasy Football look like in the next 10 years...? Should we incorporate Best Ball scoring into seasonal leagues? ... More of Heath's projections (18:00)! Dak Prescott, a disappointing 2019 RB, a young WR with breakout potential and a TE that you shouldn't overlook in drafts ... News and notes (43:50) as we debate if Michael Thomas would be the #1 WR in Fantasy if he has a new QB next season, and Dave gives his Senior Bowl thoughts (50:16), observations and stories ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go!
Starting point is 00:01:18 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, big game this weekend. Welcome to the show. It is Super Bowl week, and we are pumped up. The coverage starts on HQ today and throughout the week. Live shows all throughout the day. Download that CBS Sports HQ app to tell you more about fantasy football today on HQ a little bit later. Right now it's podcast time.
Starting point is 00:01:40 We'll look at some projections. We'll talk about the future of fantasy football. I'm Adam Azer, really excited for what's in store this week. And let's talk to my three friends today. Dave Richard, welcome back from the Senior Bowl, sir. How are you? What's up, Adam? Good to talk to you.
Starting point is 00:01:54 Good to talk to everybody. A lot of stuff to get to from the Senior Bowl. And a big week ahead as far as the Super Bowl. I'm already losing my voice. Yeah. All right. Save that voice. Yes.
Starting point is 00:02:03 We'll get Dave's takeaways from the senior bowl heath cummings is on the show today heath i understand we might be meeting some listeners this week yeah i'm just confused you said three friends are we doing a uh five man pod the producer another one of the producers uh no absolutely we are going to be hanging out this week. Wynwood Brewery, 3 to 5, Thursday afternoon. We're going to be there. Hopefully there are some listeners there as well. And it's a great place, right? You've been there before.
Starting point is 00:02:33 I've been there multiple times. A fantastic brewery. There are multiple breweries within walking distance. And the best tacos I've had in South Florida, also within walking distance. We'll be having some of those. Now I'm interested. Yeah, right. You had me at the Tacos for sure, so we'll be there.
Starting point is 00:02:50 That'll be fun. I hope to meet a lot of you, and we'll give you some more information on Twitter, on our Facebook page, Fantasy Football Today on Facebook. Ben Gretsch, I do feel confident calling him a friend. Ben, thank you for being on the show. Yeah, you should call me a friend. I mean, I think we're at that point. I was more worried about Heath, but it sounds like he let his intentions be pretty clear. Thank you for being a friend, and go Cougs.
Starting point is 00:03:13 All right, so let's talk a little bit about the Super Bowl. Just a quick tease, how we feel about the game. Still don't know for sure who I'm going to pick. Still leaning Chiefs. What's a key matchup or a storyline that could decide the game, Ben? I think it's the San Francisco secondary. They did some really interesting things in the NFC Championship. They used Richard Sherman at right cornerback, I believe, for the first time all season.
Starting point is 00:03:36 And it wasn't just to follow Devontae Adams. They had him out there at least once that I saw on Aaron Jones. So I think that's a really big element of this. When there's so much stuff on tape for teams, for teams that are willing to scheme and do things a little bit differently than what got them all the way there, it can give them a little bit of an edge. And the 49ers being willing on the defensive end
Starting point is 00:03:57 and in their secondary to mix some things up and try to confuse Aaron Rodgers bodes well for what they might have in store in the Super Bowl. I think they have to stop Patrick Mahomes for this to be any kind of game I know they ran the ball amazingly in the NFC championship but if Mahomes can throw I think it's going to be really hard for San Francisco to keep pace offensively so that for me is is the huge element what Robert Sala cooks up on the back end I think it's more about the front end for Sala and and what that pass rush does and how the
Starting point is 00:04:23 Chiefs offensive line holds up to me that's the matchup to watch is Kansas City's offensive line protecting Patrick Mahomes from that unbelievably strong pass rush. And I just looked it up. The Chiefs and the 49ers were only apart by three sacks this year. 49ers, 48 sacks. Chiefs, 45 sacks. So they both did a lot of work at the line of scrimmage and getting to the quarterback.
Starting point is 00:04:45 But I think the 49ers are just much more prepared defensively, and their offensive line is better. So I'm putting it on Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, the guys in between, to hold up and let Patrick Mahomes have time to throw downfield. I think if they do their job, then Kansas City has a chance. I am going to say it's Andy Reid versus his past demons. I saw him getting off the flight when he arrived here in south florida and he was wearing a suit and i don't
Starting point is 00:05:09 like it andy reed's supposed to have a hawaiian shirt on he's not he's supposed to be a little bit more carefree he's got patrick mahomes who's played four playoff games has thrown for 11 touchdowns zero interceptions and like a billion yards there are going to be fourth and twos fourth and threes here from around the 40 andy reed we need good andy not bad andy don't punt don't kick field goals trust patrick mahomes chiefs roll chiefs roll yeah you know what we haven't really talked about like how are you feeling right now are you are you extreme this this is awesome man the super bowl yeah it's uh it's a weird feeling like It's literally never happened in my life. But I do think it's just like Andy Reid coaches as if he has the best offense in the NFL and the Chiefs win. Because I don't think the 49ers are going to stop Patrick Mahomes if they are playing their type of game.
Starting point is 00:05:58 Now, they may not. They could easily lose the game. But I think it's more about them just playing their style of football. So this week on HQ, Fantasy Football Today is at 10 a.m eastern we're doing a live show for an hour from Radio Row in Miami and it's going to be great we're going to have awesome guests tomorrow we're going to have Stefan Diggs on and he faced both teams so I'm curious to know what he thinks about the secondaries and you know I think it's worth asking him how do you think the Niners are going to try to stop Tyreek Hill? I think there's some similarities between Diggs and Hill.
Starting point is 00:06:28 There's only one Tyreek Hill. But I think we'll get some good insight from him. We're going to talk to Jerome Bettis, Dan Marino. We're going to have great interviews. So please check it out on HQ. Just download the CBS Sports HQ app. It's all free. You can watch it on your smart TV, on your devices, whatever it is.
Starting point is 00:06:43 And, yeah, a lot more Super Bowl coverage coming up this week, including a bonus episode. The Pick 6 guys and Heath will be breaking down the Super Bowl with some DFS talks and prop bets and things like that. All right, so email of the day comes from David. Email of the day number one. I'm sure you guys probably know this. It's been out there, but pretty cool stat.
Starting point is 00:07:02 First Super Bowl in seven years without C.J. Anderson or LeGarrette Blunt. How weird is that? Anderson was in the Super Bowl in 2013, 15, and 18. Blunt was in the Super Bowl in 2014, 16, and 17. We're going to miss those guys, won't we? I had no idea that this was actually a thing. I thought we'd already discussed this on the podcast like last week um but yeah definitely this is a thing i thought so maybe not maybe it's
Starting point is 00:07:30 somewhere else that i was discussing it but yeah it's uh it's fun it's i'm trying to think like who's the most cj anderson slash lagarrette bunt player in the game and there is a most for he mosted another udFA running back who's going to play. He's all I mean, if you compare it. Yeah, sure. From that angle, that's true. He's been elusive at least this year, right? These guys are more physical churners. Is it Tevin Coleman
Starting point is 00:07:55 then? Is Coleman that guy or is it might be Kyle Uschek? Okay. Yeah. Oh, he's a better pass catcher than either of those guys. That's true. More on that in a little bit. Email of the day number two comes from Brian Tarbell. I thought this was a better pass catcher than either of those guys. That's true. More on that in a little bit. Email of the day number two comes from Brian Tarbell. I thought this was a cool email, fun subject. So he listened to our resolutions podcast,
Starting point is 00:08:15 New Year's resolution podcast three weeks ago. And he said, with 2020 being the start of a new decade, I wanted you guys to give – I wanted to give you the idea of doing resolutions for the whole decade where you want to see fantasy football going long-term, both for you guys on the show and the industry in general. So what do you think, guys? Like, Ben, where is this? This is quite a question.
Starting point is 00:08:34 Where is the industry? Where is fantasy football going? And I think a big part of it is that we're going to have a 17-game season, perhaps. So that's going to change the sport of fantasy football a little bit but what do you think ben get your crystal ball out what's it looking like in the future well and i don't even know if this is what will happen but i have strong opinions on what should happen and i i think one of the biggest things one of the biggest issues i have with fantasy football as we play it now is
Starting point is 00:08:59 i don't think the the the lineups are are large enough i think it's interesting we we try to keep like one quarterback and two running backs and two to three receivers and match what is typically on the field. But if you look at like fantasy basketball, they don't just do five players. If you look at fantasy baseball, they don't just do one player for each position. They add additional outfielders and infielders for those, you know, obviously many of our listeners probably also play fantasy baseball. I think what's really interesting about
Starting point is 00:09:25 football, yeah, there's more players on the field, but on offense, there's really only five skill position players, a quarterback and five offensive linemen. It's essentially the same as like five basketball players who can create all the stats. I just don't understand why our lineups are so limited. I think we should probably start two quarterbacks. We should probably start three running backs, maybe five receivers. I have some pretty extreme beliefs about that. More flexes, if not more rigid positional elements. But I think that's why we see things like when we were looking at the win percentage last week, how high it was for the draft slots where Christian McCaffrey went. Christian McCaffrey should be a huge piece of your team, but he shouldn't be such
Starting point is 00:09:59 a huge piece. It's also why people hate defense special teams and kicker because they have such a huge impact. I want more running backs. backs i want more receivers i want a second quarterback i want a lot of more players in our lineups i was going to say the same exact thing absolutely and we're the funny thing about that the funny thing about that is i don't know if there's going to be a a hardened fast way that people across the board will take to adding more players like i think super flex is coming on pretty strong and i think maybe two or three years from now a lot of people are going to play super flex fantasy leagues and as long as the scoring is okay and it's not like super obvious two quarterback leagues i get it but we're starting to see so many mutations of
Starting point is 00:10:40 fantasy football now whereas 10 years ago ppr wasn't even as big as it is now and it was pretty much two running backs two wide receivers and a flex in every single league that was out there and it was pretty much a straightforward way of playing there were a couple of idp leagues and now there are just so many different ways to play which i like but it's also just going to make it more complex when you ask a fantasy question it's not going to be as easy as saying oh yeah i'm in a PPR league here. I need to start two of these three. It's I'm in a super flex tiered PPR with three running backs, three wide receivers and two flexes.
Starting point is 00:11:13 Who do I start at this, this and this? And it's just it'll be a little more complicated from that regard. But certainly the mutations are what makes fantasy football more fun. So I'm curious to see what those mutations will be. And I think the first one that you'll see will be the Superflex. Yeah, more Superflex, more IDP, more Dynasty. I think probably the key, though, will be there's going to be more best ball because people are realizing that when you play in a best ball league,
Starting point is 00:11:38 you don't have to make some of those lineup decisions throughout the season. So I can play in 10 best ball leagues. Or I can play in even... So I think that was probably going to continue to grow and then i i would hope and like to see more of and i we've done this once or twice um it's basically dfs but also season long where you're playing contests against the same group of 12 people and you get a score for that week and that score is going to go into your season long. And so you're playing for a small little pot this week
Starting point is 00:12:07 and then a big pot for the rest of the season with friends and people that you know. I think that we did that, I think it was two years ago was when we had the biggest one where we kept it running, and that was one of the more enjoyable experiences I've had. That's a fun way to play DFS without worrying about if you're going up against somebody dropping 2,000 lineups in the same contest. So you get that experience of DFS without worrying about if you're going up against somebody dropping 2000 lineups in the same contest. So you get that experience of DFS, you know, who else is playing? Everybody
Starting point is 00:12:31 gets one lineup and that's fun. And as for best ball, I've kind of talked every now and then about the idea of doing best ball in seasonal leagues where you, me, Ben, Adam, and some of our buddies get together. We put our lineups together. We can make trades. We can make ad drops. But every week, there's no lineup setting. Right. And some people bristle at that because they like that. Well, some people love the idea of not having to set a lab, and then your best players get points, and may the best team win.
Starting point is 00:12:57 May the best fantasy owner win. It's like the NFL. But sure. Sometimes Tevin Coleman's a guy. Sometimes Raheem Mostert's a guy. Sometimes Matt Breed is. But they've got all those guys, so they can all help their team. Sure, but there are some people, and Adam, I know you're one of these people who love making the lineup decisions.
Starting point is 00:13:11 You live and die with making those lineup decisions. It might be the difference in your team going 8-5 and 6-7 over the course of a fantasy season, and that takes some of the fun out of fantasy. I wonder how people feel about it when i when i've talked to people about it in the past i'd say about two-thirds of the people are interested in doing a best ball seasonal league which and one third of the people say right you're oh yeah i'm still playing this week and adam next week but then there's a third of people that say oh you're a bunch of nabby pambies you know put your big boy pants on and start a line and make your own tough decisions already so i see both sides of, and I've been playing so long where I've been making my own lineup decisions anyway
Starting point is 00:13:47 that it's not going to affect me, but I bet there's people out there that would be interested in doing some sort of best ball format with their friends, and that way you can't forget to set a lineup either. You've got your lineup already set no matter what. Yeah, I've never called anyone a Namby Pamby or whatever that was, but I think that's so lame. I mean, that's the hardest.
Starting point is 00:14:06 That's the best part of fantasy football. You got to make the lineup decisions. I don't know if it's the best part. It's not the best part, but it's such an integral part. If you take that out of fantasy football, you're playing a completely different game. I'm making the lineup decisions. It's half the battle. But there's a medium here.
Starting point is 00:14:21 There's a medium here, and I think we talked about it during the season, but I like an idea of just having like one or two players that you can set as your best ball. Essentially your backups. You have a starting lineup and you have a backup. And I think especially with such a narrow starting lineup like we have in fantasy football, it goes back to the first point. The worst thing is when a guy gets hurt right away. I had Will Fuller and DJ Moore in championship weekend on multiple teams, and both of them got hurt in the first quarter, I think, and got me zero. And it's like, well, I built a great team all year. I had tough lineup decisions. I know I played DJ Moore over some
Starting point is 00:14:54 really good receivers that I benched. And then I can't do anything about that because he gets injured. And like to his point, in real life, you have backups for a reason. If you have good players on your bench, you should be able to insert them. I think setting one or two lineup spots as your backups that are best ball, you still have to make decisions, right? You still have to do that, but you can't just optimize your whole roster for best ball every week and have like five quarterbacks to make sure you're getting the most points at the most important position or the highest scoring positions.
Starting point is 00:15:20 I think you'd still have to keep long-term players and make decisions about injured players, but you could set one or two guys that could be substituted in if you had an unfortunate injury or something like that. I like that a lot. Hold on, Adam. What do you think about that one, Adam? Because you're the one that's anti-best ball. Well, here's the scenario, right?
Starting point is 00:15:40 You're playing. It's week 16 or whatever. It doesn't matter, but let's say it's week 16. Use the scenario you just had. Your opponent starts DJ Moore, and DJ Moore has three catches for 70 yards late in the third quarter, and then he gets hurt. And his backup, who your opponent didn't start, but the backup in this scenario scores 15 fantasy points,
Starting point is 00:16:04 20 fantasy points, whatever. You're going to lose because DJ Moore played almost three full quarters, got hurt, wasn't having as good a game as the backup. I mean, I don't know, man. From my perspective. That would bother me. in putting together a roster that has multiple players at each position depth that can have big weeks than there is choosing between two running backs who have a projection that is half a point apart. But it's still skill setting the lineup no matter what a projection says.
Starting point is 00:16:39 I don't necessarily agree, no, personally. I think the solution is starting more players, like what Ben was saying. If you add two extra flexes, yeah, then you don't really have to sweat it as much. What if we just eliminate benches then? Everybody you have on your team gets fantasy points. I like that too. We were going to do a league this year in the office. We were going to do a league this year in the office where everybody got one bench spot.
Starting point is 00:17:06 15 rounds. You start 14 players, one bench spot. I like it. Maybe. Okay. All right. We're on to something here. And the one thing I can see happening in terms of the industry is that by the year 2024,
Starting point is 00:17:18 there will be over 5,000 fantasy football podcasts out there. So we hope you stick with us when you have 5,000 other options. It seems like there's a new one sprouting up every day. A couple of things I want to promote here. The weekly punishment, well, the yearly or weekly punishment in your league for the loser. Please tell us in an Apple podcast,
Starting point is 00:17:36 or if you've gotten some fun ones from Kuhn, the weekly punishment in his league, the low score of the week has to dump a beer on their head and send a video. And the last place for the season, this is great, has to play an instrument on a street corner until they make $25. That's good. That's terrific. That's a good one. The worst one I've heard, I think I've said it on the podcast before, is there's a bunch of guys in a fantasy league in Boston.
Starting point is 00:18:06 The last place team has to pay for a bus ride to Omaha and then take the bus to Omaha from Boston, which I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't even join the league if I had to risk that as the punishment for finishing in last. Riding a bus? To Omaha, Nebraska from Boston, Massachusetts. That might sound like fun to you. I didn't say like fun, but they probably have Wi-Fi on the bus. You could just watch movies the whole time.
Starting point is 00:18:30 Put some headphones on. Nobody will bother you. Then you got to fly back. I don't know. I might ride the bus right back and just watch some more movies. Yeah. So go play in the league and finish in last, and we'll see how much you like it then.
Starting point is 00:18:43 Yeah. Just go inune for the world series and that's really it's really not that bad uh and also the pick six podcast i mentioned that they're going to have an episode in our feed on saturday with heath but all week long pick six podcast is covering uh the super bowl from south beach not only was will brinson going to be podcasting daily actually more than daily for will he's going to have great interviews with nfl legends throughout the week they'll have today they're going to be podcasting daily. Actually, more than daily for Will. He's going to have great interviews with NFL legends throughout the week. Today, they're going to have a Super Bowl week preview,
Starting point is 00:19:08 and tomorrow, a recap of everything that went down on opening night. And we know you probably want to gamble on the big game, so later in the week, the Pick 6 will have a Mega Picks, props, and DFS episode. Download and subscribe wherever you listen to FFT. All right, let's get into some of Heath's projections now. We're going to do this for as long as we need content, I guess. So Dak Prescott, Heath gave me a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
Starting point is 00:19:36 Dak Prescott, QB3, you have him projected for. This year, he threw for 4,900 yards. You have him at 4,568. This year, he threw 30 touchdowns. You have,568. This year he threw 30 touchdowns. You have him for 28. This year he rushed for three. You have him at four rushing touchdowns. Pretty similar numbers, but let's say about 350 fewer, 340 fewer passing yards.
Starting point is 00:19:59 But QB3, he was QB2 this year. So, yeah, another stellar year. You know what really jumped out to me, Heath, though, was like, I look at your projections, right, and you don't have the turnovers. You didn't give me the turnovers, but whatever. Let's say they're not a huge part of it. But 4,568 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 268 rushing yards, four touchdowns. Like, that's a great year. But when I saw those raw numbers, they seem, like, four touchdowns. That's a great year.
Starting point is 00:20:25 But when I saw those raw numbers, they seemed fairly attainable. But you know what I mean? It didn't blow me away as quarterback. So are you saying that my projection sounds good? Yeah, no. I'm just saying I don't really know. This is not a criticism of your projections at all. No, it sounds like a compliment.
Starting point is 00:20:44 Yeah, it is. It is. Well, it says to me, if that's going to be the third best quarterback, I feel like there will probably be a lot of quarterbacks that are within that, that aren't that far from Dak and Scott. That's the really strange thing. And one thing that I'll say about this, quarterback projections are now up on the site. They just were published.
Starting point is 00:21:04 I'm getting ready to tweet it out so you can see the projections for all of the quarterbacks, including Patriots QB, because I don't have anybody's name there yet. But I think a couple of things. One, projections are always going to pull everyone back just a little bit.
Starting point is 00:21:19 You're not going to project a 50-touchdown season for Patrick Mahomes. We're not going to project what Lamar Jackson just did. And each year after those types of seasons happen, I'm the guy that's trying to kill fun and saying, no, he's going to regress. He's not going to be that good again. So we're pulling back back a little bit,
Starting point is 00:21:37 but as for there's going to be a lot of quarterbacks in that range. The thing that I wrote about was he's kind of on an island in where he is on the projections because mahomes and lamar jackson are the clear top two but the difference between prescott at number three and russell wilson at number five is bigger than the difference between wilson at five and drew breeze at 14 so he is kind of with that projection on a little bit of an island between the top two and the next tier of quarterbacks, which is a really big tier. He has been pretty consistent, really. It's just that the volume was never there. Last year, it threw 596 passes.
Starting point is 00:22:20 League average was 575. I would be very concerned if their offensive coordinator wasn't coming back, if Mike McCarthy was going to call plays. But as of right now, what we have to expect is that the offense is going to be more like it was last year than what it was in 2017 and 2018, which is huge for him.
Starting point is 00:22:37 Again, I dropped him down to 586, which is kind of right in the middle between what league median was last year and what he was. But that gives him a really good chance to throw for 4,500 yards, and we know he's going to do something with his legs. So I think he's an easy top five, but number three for me right now. I think the interesting thing here, and Heath obviously touched on all this, but how vertical the offense got last year as well.
Starting point is 00:23:03 He said the volume, and they threw a little bit more, but it was a lot more vertical, a lot more downfield, and we saw Dak blow away his previous career high in passing yardage. And this is something Heath, you know, I project every year as well. I have not started at all, and it's very commendable that Heath has already finished the entire league in January. I think that's awesome. But we see this every year.
Starting point is 00:23:22 I've had this with Cam Newton a lot of years, where a quarterback that can get, can be reasonably projected for a decent amount of rushing production. Right. And then has at least some passing upside. Now there's going to be guys that don't necessarily have much passing upside. And Dak has been that guy in the past. And maybe Josh Allen will be that guy.
Starting point is 00:23:41 I don't think he's really profiles as a 5,000 yard passer. He's never thrown for 300 yards in a game, But now that Dak has shown that kind of upside, he was very nearly at 5,000 yards last year. He's going to look very, very good in a projection. He should look very good in a projection because he has a stable number in passing yards and in rushing production and in all the different categories. And that's all going to add up positively for him. I think he should be a top five quarterback. I do also think that he's the type of quarterback that projections might overvalue a little bit. And I think this is closer to what his ceiling might be as attainable as it looks, like Adam said, than what other players who might be, you know, have the potential to have a spike season, what their ceilings might
Starting point is 00:24:20 be relative to their own projections. And I think what you can worry about is that Dak, he had the career year, just like Ben said, and just like we all know, is that the spike year? Have we already seen the best of Dak Prescott? And so the numbers that you're projecting for him, there needs to be some context as to how it relates to all the other quarterbacks in fantasy football in 2020. Now, I'm encouraged by Kellen Moore staying on as the offensive coordinator and by Mike McCarthy being the head coach because McCarthy's done a lot of really good work with Favre and Aaron Rodgers. And I think he's going to be able to help Dak just a little bit, make him a little bit more efficient as a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:24:58 And as long as Cooper's there, as long as Dak's back there and that offensive line looks all right, I agree. I think he's a top five fantasy quarterback and I almost think that the projections that you have for him are good I think he can beat him I think it won't be quite what he had last year but I would say he'll be closer to the 30 touchdowns and 4,900 yards he had last year rather than numbers that you're putting out for him in 2020 the Cowboys ran a lot more plays last year. This is where they've been in his four seasons in terms of total plays. They've been 20th, 18th, 11th, and 6th in the NFL. They were
Starting point is 00:25:31 sixth in the NFL in plays. And I thought when I saw Dak's passing totals, because in pass attempts per game, they've been 30.2, 30.8, 32.9, 37.3 in four seasons. So a huge jump. I wanted to see if that really came at the expense of the running game. And they still had 28.1 carries per game, eighth most in the NFL. Not quite what it was three or four years ago, where it was more than 30. But still, that's a lot. So we'll see if they can keep that pace up. That would be nice. And Dak Prescott, number two quarterback and four point per passing touchdown
Starting point is 00:26:03 leagues, number four and six point. To your point about the offense being as good as it was, they had more total yards this year than any team since the Peyton Manning Denver Broncos in 2013. They had more than the Chiefs in 2018 when Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdowns. Their total yardage was really, really high because they chased in a lot of games that they probably should have been in and been leading in and winning. So that's something else to keep in and and been leading in and winning so that's something else to keep in mind if their whole offense comes down like you said it didn't
Starting point is 00:26:28 it wasn't at the expense of their run game will back be able to throw for as many yards okay our next projection levion bell so yeah really bad year for him obviously what did you project for levion in 2000 in 2020 so completely and entirely uncomfortable with this projection or any projection for levion bell in 2019 so you guys can try to convince me to move this one direction or another in ppr i've got him as the number nine running back 256 carries 974 rush yards that's 3.8 yards per carry which both seems too low and too high 71 catches on 89 targets 548 receiving yards and 2.7 receiving touchdowns so you have him on a different team than the Jets I have on the Jets so he's gonna get those numbers with the Jets he the thing is
Starting point is 00:27:22 and that's the difficulty with him is like on a per game basis the touches are pretty much what they gave him last year yes and so he was at 3.2 yards per carry last year i don't really project anyone unless they're only a short yardage back for that low of a rush yardage because generally speaking that's going to come up or you're not going to be a running back in the nfl anymore um so i most teams that are that bad get better the next year at running the ball so maybe he should i guess that would be my question is what would you project for levion bell on a per carry basis next year i think he would be no higher than four yards per carry i got him at 3.8 okay so and then that yeah 3.8. Okay. So, and then that, yeah, 3.8 to 4.0. That seems just fine.
Starting point is 00:28:07 Give me the number of carries you have for him again. 256. He had 245. And he had 245 in 15 games last year. So 256 doesn't seem weird at all. Catches. You had him for a bunch of catches. I have him for 71. Oh, and he only had 66 last year.
Starting point is 00:28:20 In 15 games. So very close to the pace. So you're basically giving him the same pace as last year but you're expecting him to be more efficient is that because you're expecting the offensive line to get better you're expecting the jets just to be better as a run game i don't know what the reason will be yet it's mostly because if you're that bad running the ball and you get the work again the next year you're generally better especially when you've got a career of the guy at 4.9 for a couple of years and 4.2 for like sure he i don't think he's ever going to reach those heights again but i wouldn't expect him to be as bad and again the same thing with the yards per reception he was at seven last year um a career low no he had one year where he was
Starting point is 00:29:01 worse yep um i boosted him back to 7.7 which is still like 10 percent worse i mean career average two longer catches makes the difference there between 7.0 and 7.7 i don't know if we sometimes we overrate those averages a little bit and then he scored four touchdowns last year on 311 touches i i guess the the bone that i'd pick would be that you've got him at RB9. That seems like you would take him with a top 15 pick. That's where he projects. Right, that's where he projects.
Starting point is 00:29:37 Would you feel comfortable taking him in early round two? Well, I wouldn't say I'll. No, probably not. Okay. So that means that. Why is he going to not be that good is the question. Because I wouldn't feel comfortable with drafting him. There is not a reason that I would adjust someone's projection. Okay.
Starting point is 00:29:51 So the first thing that comes to mind is just how infuriating it was to have him on a fantasy team last year. He was never the reason why your team dominated over the course of several weeks. You know, he had a big game occasionally i can look it up but it was really more of a lot of 15 point games which in ppr is good for a number two running back but not what you want from a guy that you would take with the top 15 he was running back 16 last year he was in 15 games um all projections right now are for 16 games if he'd played 16 games last year he'd have probably been a couple of spots maybe higher but top let's say 16 if you just improve his yards per carry by half a yard his yards per catch by half a yard you're talking 300 touches that's going to move him up if you expect him to
Starting point is 00:30:36 score one or two more touchdowns that's going to move him up and that's how he gets into that top 12 argument i have him in my top 20 not in my top 15 so as of now and this is with him saying with the jets and the jets not doing a ton to improve their offensive line but so you think he's going to be worse than he was last year i think he'll be right around where he was but i'm expecting a lot of other running backs to pass him up so yes technically he'll be worse than he was last year so he was on a per game basis sorry ben he was on a per-game basis. Sorry, Ben. He was on a per-game basis, actually the number 18 running back in PPR. You're right. If he had played 16 games, would have bumped up a little bit.
Starting point is 00:31:10 But a lot of guys didn't play that. So he was 18th on a per-game basis behind Todd Gurley, behind James Conner, just ahead of Joe Mixon. It's not a bad group there, right? But, yeah, I mean, it's interesting because it's just it's hard to have that many touches and be that bad. So if he does get that work again, seriously, to score only four touchdowns to average 3.2 yards per carry, it's comically bad. If you look at the top five PPR running backs and how many touches they had, McCaffrey had 403. Bell was on pace for 331 in 16 games. McCaffrey had 403.
Starting point is 00:31:46 But Bell had more than Derrick Henry. He had more than Aaron Jones. He had less than Ezekiel Elliott by about 30. He had more than Dalvin Cook. Those are your top five running backs in PPR. He had more than Austin Eckler. Yeah, obviously. But it's just unbelievable that he was on pace for 331
Starting point is 00:32:02 touches and had that bad of a year. So what you said, Dave, about would you take him with a top 15 pick and then, you know, and the projections make me think that actually he might become
Starting point is 00:32:13 somewhat of a steal depending on where he goes. If it's a round later, if it's late in the third round or something like that and nobody wants him, if he's getting that workload, he's probably going to be
Starting point is 00:32:22 a good value because he can't be this bad. And that's the range where I bet he does end up going toward the toward the end of round three right and this is an example of like if you had asked me don't look at any numbers just give me your top 15 running backs for 2020 levy on bell would not have been somebody i would have said because i didn't want to i don't want any of that jets offense it's terrible uh but when you do the projections you're like well that's i probably should and you didn't
Starting point is 00:32:45 call him a buy low all all season like i did because of all the reasons you guys said it's hard to have this type of workload and be this bad consistently but he managed to do it the whole year so to dave's point as disappointing as he was he's not really someone that i'm going to be looking at drafting he's another guy that uh along with dak prescott i would say that the projections are going to probably overrate at this stage. There's going to be players, young players specifically, who we can't necessarily project for full-time roles. Think of Miles Sanders after he got drafted with the Eagles last year. We didn't know how many touches he would get. But by the fantasy playoffs, he was playing a full-time role and was elite or had very, very high upside, at least, if you don't want to give him the elite tag.
Starting point is 00:33:23 But very good. And an upside that Le'Veon Bell never had. Le'Veon Bell's going to project for a consistent number of touches all season. But I think when you step back from that projection, there's a reason why he could project in the top 10, but also not be someone you'd want to draft in the top 10. And I think when you look at his whole career as well and step back from just 2020 and what he will project at, you can see that he's getting older. He didn't come back from his year off and be as efficient. So maybe there is a career decline that we need to bake in some risk there.
Starting point is 00:33:51 Yes, I agree with Heath completely that we should regress his efficiency positively and expect him to be better in that element. But I'm looking at it from a big picture and saying, Le'Veon Bell may never be Le'Veon Bell again. He's not in a good offense and he's getting older and might have more injury risk. He's not somebody that I want to even touch even in the third round. And last but not least, that offensive line is a huge factor because if they don't improve it and they don't have a line that is tailored to his style of running, which is that patient, wait an extra second behind the
Starting point is 00:34:19 line of scrimmage before deciding where to go, he's going to get buried again. And that's what happened last year. That's why he didn't have a lot of touchdowns. That's why he averaged 3.2 yards per carry. All right, our next projection is Christian Kirk. In PPR, Heath has Christian Kirk projected as wide receiver 19, 89 catches, 976 yards, and six touchdowns. I actually want to give Ben the first word here because I feel like Ben is a Christian Kirk believer.
Starting point is 00:34:45 How do you feel about this projection? Top 20 wide receiver, Christian Kirk. Yeah, it was a very productive player in college at a young age, which is something that we talk about a lot. And we'll be talking about more as we go into prospects this offseason for the 2020 class. And that was always a positive sign with Christian Kirk. He came in and was very efficient on a per target basis in his rookie season, which also a very good sign now he stepped way back this year his efficiency dropped very substantially but he was hurt the offense uh maybe didn't mesh I really like Christian Kirk next year because I believe in Kyle Murray I think he showed enough this year that we should expect him to be a guy who steps forward in year two he's the kind of guy that I hope might have the
Starting point is 00:35:23 potential to take the Dak Prescott passing yardage jump and he's a quarterback because of his rushing ability and that potential ceiling at passing that i will be we're drafting a ton of even though he's going to be a very popular breakout candidate uh he might be my my number one quarterback target right now as we sit in january and if he's my number one quarterback target and i think this arizona offense can continue to move forward and and be more efficient as they kind of got their sea legs under them late with kenyan drake at running back and things were a little bit better if he's my number you know my number one quarterback target that christian kirk is number one receiver and and with fitzgerald back he those two guys are going to be back i think he's not going to have any real competition i think
Starting point is 00:36:03 christian kirk is going to definitely take a step forward i love this projection i i don't love it i i don't think he's a top 20 receiver and i don't see him being a guy that i can reliably start in ppr leagues now he did start last season three straight games with 10 plus ppr points and two of them i believe he was at or over 15 but this is a team that's got a lot of depth at wide receiver heath i know you know this better than anybody that on top of uh keshaun johnson who was a training camp um hero last year andy isabella still there hakeem butler's still there larry fitzgerald is still there who knows where they'll add pieces along the way i think there is competition and
Starting point is 00:36:45 i think christian kirk will be a regular part of the offense but i don't know if he's going to get to a point where he's getting 900 yards is that where you're coming out on him in your projection yeah and if you and how many catches on top of that 89 i i think it's going to be hard for him to get to those numbers i i see him more i'd much rather have him as a flex than a number two wide receiver because i think spreading the ball around is something have him as a flex than a number two wide receiver because i think spreading the ball around is something we're going to see in arizona i think the key a couple of keys one last year his 16 game pace was 432 targets and i expect the arizona cardinals are going to throw more passes and run more offensive plays this year
Starting point is 00:37:20 they wanted to last year and they didn't succeed they were a below average offense i think they did what they thought their offense could do right um i think also that we see a lot of times first year nfl coaches they are running things a little bit slower just because they're not processing everything quite as fast i think kingsbury will be a little bit better this year as well i don't know if i agree with that with kingsbury but go ahead i I'm sorry. I don't mean to cut you off. No, that's okay. This projection, I think, is probably too low. If he takes a leap, then we're going to see that rookie year efficiency, which was so bad last year because they couldn't block anyone, so they couldn't really target anybody downfield. I think we'll see the yards per target go up.
Starting point is 00:37:58 I do think he can get to 140 targets in this offense, and he might be an 1,100-yard, eight-touchdown guy. There are so many questions with the cardinals i i think it makes sense to suggest all right they're going to get a bunch of offensive linemen they need it they've got to do it they don't have to go and draft other wide receivers because they did that last year already so one of those three guys should mature and help out i i i like the way that that offense changed their fundamentals during the year they realized that they couldn't just lean on kyler murray game after game after game and they got their run game going
Starting point is 00:38:33 from time to time it wasn't consistent with kenyan drake but they managed to make that part of their offense you remember the game with chase edmunds too where edmunds got going they said okay this is how we're gonna attack teams this week and and I think that they are good at scheming up, and I think Kingsbury did pick it up. I think he'll get better at it next year. I think Kirk is going to be a good flex. I don't see him making this leap close to 1,000 yards in his third season. Well, look, he's very interesting because based on last year,
Starting point is 00:39:00 just look at the numbers and the fact that he had four touchdowns and three of them came in one game against the Buccaneers. He was pretty disappointing last year, but people, look, there's obviously reason to get excited. I just want to take a look at where Christian Kirk went in the mock draft we did a few weeks ago. A PPR mock draft, of course, went to Ben Gretsch,
Starting point is 00:39:18 but a pretty reasonable spot. So there was this, there were two wide receivers that went in the middle of this round, round six in a 12-team league. So we're talking picks 61 to 72, and they were, well, let's look at, geez, a lot of wide receivers in this round.
Starting point is 00:39:33 My goodness. Michael Gallup, Jarvis Landry, DJ Chark, then the two that caught my eye, AJ Green and T.Y. Hilton, and then Tyler Boyd goes after that, and then we start getting to the upside, like younger, less proven upside. We've got Christian Kirk, John Brown in there, but Terry McLaurin, Will Fuller.
Starting point is 00:39:50 We're going into round seven now. Ben, I thought it was funny that you took Kirk ahead of McLaurin. I kind of felt like McLaurin should have gone first, but then you took McLaurin three picks later, so it worked out. But there's a lot of wide receivers there. He's going after A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton before Terry McLaurin and Will Fuller and John Brown. You know, does he deserve that?
Starting point is 00:40:12 What do you think? I would take McLaurin over Kirk now. Right. As I say here, we did that mock a couple of weeks ago. And, yeah, I mean, I'll definitely say that I probably made a mistake there. I don't know. I can't recall at the time, but maybe I was thinking, man, I should have taken McClure. And then when he came back around, I took him.
Starting point is 00:40:28 But yeah, I think he belongs in this group. I think he belongs at the back of this group. I don't think he's the step down this year in efficiency and also the fact that he played through injury, which probably impacted his efficiency. But it's another marker. I think he was banged up a little bit in his rookie season. Maybe he's not going to be the healthiest receiver. Maybe he is on that Will Fuller trajectory where, you know, hopefully he's good when he's on the field, but we don't know how frequently his body can hold up. And, you know, I, I don't shy too much away from injuries, but I do think guys like McLaurin,
Starting point is 00:41:00 I I'm going to value more because I don't have that type of concern for him, but I do think he's on this in this tier i don't think you should feel bad for passing on terry mcclure in there because everybody that passed on him for the two rounds prior to that should have taken him i wasn't in that draft uh no i think mcclure is not in this group of wide receivers but i have like i have a hard time worrying about christian kirk's health when we're talking about a tier of receivers that includes AJ Green and TY Hilton. So I think I will take yeah and Will Fuller. I take Kirk second amongst the group. It'd be McClure and then Kirk
Starting point is 00:41:31 for me. Okay. All right. Let's move on to our last projection from Heath for the day. Will Disley. I don't forget how good he was when he was healthy this year. What do you have? Will Disley projected for not just this year like Will disley is pretty the few times that he has played football in the nfl he's pretty much been awesome and i right now
Starting point is 00:41:52 i'm just projecting everyone for 16 games everything i've read about his rehab is that it's going well so i'm gonna expect that he's ready for the start for camp and the start of the season i've got him at 52 catches 622 yards and five touchdowns that makes him a top 10 tight end i believe he's the only tight end um help currently on the seahawks roster they may still have ed dixon as well but jacob holster i believe is a free agent so i if he could stay healthy and play a full season with russell wilson i would expect him to be a starting caliber tight end i mean he's the perfect type of tight end to wait for on draft day it does depend on who seattle begins the season with on their schedule if it's a tough schedule to begin the year they're playing a lot
Starting point is 00:42:33 of great safeties and outside linebackers that i'm not sure will disley will be as exciting of a pick to make but we don't know what that is yet and so for now i think he does carry some top 12 tight end potential as long as you basically ignore the injury issues yeah i mean he played he started last year and he played against cincinnati which they've been good against tight ends we we liked him in that matchup against him he was terrible one catch for 12 yards but then he goes to pittsburgh catches five for 50 and two touchdowns, faces New Orleans, goes six for 62 and a touchdown. He's scored... I think he's
Starting point is 00:43:10 basically his 16 game pace for his career is around 650 yards, and that includes three games that he left early with injury. And you're right about the tight ends. Let me give you his 16 game pace based on just his five healthy games, right right because he didn't play much
Starting point is 00:43:26 in weeks this will be good this is fun 74 catches 838 yards 13 touchdowns on 83 targets for Will Disley Will Disley is the best tight end in football many people are yeah we've often said that
Starting point is 00:43:41 Kelsey Kittle put him on the all decade team Put him on the all decade team. Put him on the all decade team already. Well, look, if Mercedes Lewis made it, then. Yeah, exactly. Ben, you have a quick thought on Will Disley? I mean, not really. It makes sense that you can project him here.
Starting point is 00:43:58 My concern will be that they kind of go back to a rotation and tight end, which they didn't in some prior years before Jimmy Graham. They would mix like Luke Wilson with like, I don't know if you guys remember Cooper health fit and some other, um, tight ends that they would just mix in. If they bring back Hollister, I think they might use both tight ends and they might cannibalize each other a little bit. But right now, yeah, it makes sense that Disley looks like the main tight end. And I agree with Heath. I mean, he should project pretty well. He's been very good. Cool. Everybody agrees with Heath. Beautiful day here. All right. So interesting news and here. Alright, so, interest, news, and
Starting point is 00:44:26 notes, and then we'll talk about the Senior Bowl a little bit. And I had some stuff I wanted to talk about today, but we'll save it for perhaps tomorrow or later on in the week. Like, Kenny Galladay's catches. Kenny Galladay is the only wide receiver in the last three
Starting point is 00:44:42 seasons, I believe, to be top five in non-PPR or top 10 in PPR with fewer than 80 catches, something like that. And I want to talk about some past catching running backs that maybe have the potential to do a little bit more next year, but we'll save that for another show. So the news and notes, Antonio Brown was arrested and Kareem Hunt was pulled over for speeding and was found to have marijuana in his car. So from a dynasty perspective, what does this mean if you're holding on to Antonio Brown and or Kareem Hunt, Dave? You can hang on to Antonio Brown for as long as you want. And you should hang on right now because, I mean, what's the harm in it at this point in the year?
Starting point is 00:45:20 But I think there's a pretty real chance he doesn't make it back into the NFL again. I think there's a pretty real chance Kareem Hunt stays in the NFL despite this recent incident that he has. But he's a restricted free agent with the Browns. Pretty sure they're going to tag him, not franchise tag him, but use a high-level tender. And so he will probably spend 2020 with Cleveland. I would be surprised if a team, given the draft prospects that are out there running back, would give up, say, a second-round pick to get Kareem Hunt,
Starting point is 00:45:51 especially with this newfound baggage on him. I end up, I'm ranking him and projecting him, and I don't know if you are, Heath, as if he's going to be part of a two-headed monster in Cleveland this year. Yeah, I have not ranked, or I ranked him, but i didn't project him um i'm hopeful that he gets his own job there were some questions when this whole report came out and i don't know that we have all the details about the kareem hunt situation um so i i'm just not sure that we really know the full story i don't i don't think it's going to be a big deal i don't think it's going to have
Starting point is 00:46:23 any impact on him i agree and if it doesn't to be a big deal. I don't think it's going to have any impact on him. I agree. And if it doesn't, then I'm hopeful that he goes and gets it. And there's also some questions about his free agency. Oh, he's a restricted free agent. I have seen that in several places. I've also seen that he's an unrestricted free agent in a couple of places. So I don't...
Starting point is 00:46:39 If he's restricted, maybe they tender him? I don't know. I would be stunned if they didn't. I know they like him a lot there. A couple of quarterback notes for you here. Drew Brees did not commit to returning, and Robert Kraft said the Patriots plan on bringing Tom Brady back. Let's talk about, Ben, let's talk about Drew Brees. How about this?
Starting point is 00:46:58 If Drew Brees does not return and Teddy Bridgewater is the quarterback next season for the Saints, is Michael Thomas still the number one wide receiver in fantasy on draft day? That's a loaded question. I mean, that's a good, good question. Thomas was still very, very good when Teddy Bridgewater started. He was still very productive, didn't lose much off his pace. I think that's kind of a small sample situation,
Starting point is 00:47:23 and I don't think that if Bridgewater is your starting quarterback for 16 games, you can expect as much passing as accurate of passing. Obviously, I mean, that's not even to knock Bridgewater, but compared to Breeze, I think it almost absolutely has to impact Michael Thomas's target ceiling and probably that really high catch rate that he's been able to post the last two years, which are the two best seasons in NFL history among a wide receiver with over 100 targets in terms of catch percentage. So you expect that to fall down a little bit with a different quarterback. I mean, he just kind of has to. But even – it's tough because we do have a – you know, a little bit of that sample was with Bridgewater, and he was still very good with Bridgewater.
Starting point is 00:48:02 I think he could have a little bit of optimism. I would have a hard time taking him at least overall. I have him number three right now. If Breeze is back, I wouldn't take him that high at all. I'd be taking running backs. If, if Breeze was gone.
Starting point is 00:48:15 So let me give you the numbers. He played six games with Teddy Bridgewater. First, let's do season long numbers for Michael Thomas compared to the six games with Teddy Bridgewater and obviously taking those six games and putting them on a 16-game pace. So season-long, he had 185 targets. With Bridgewater, he was on pace for 173.
Starting point is 00:48:35 For the season, he had 149 catches. With Bridgewater, he was on pace for only 139 catches. For the season, he had 1,725 yards. With Bridgewater, he was only on pace for 1,707 yards, guys, okay? 22 fewer yards. What's my math here? Sorry, 18 fewer yards. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:48:58 And for the season, he had nine touchdowns. With Bridgewater, he was on pace for only eight touchdowns so the numbers were pretty close to identical however however this is what happens with small sample sizes right uh he had a 182 yard game 182 yards two touchdowns against Tampa Bay game in there and look he was great but in six games without with Bridge, he had two 100-yard games. In the other 11 games, he had 100 yards in nine games. So I do think if you had played more games with Bridgewater, there would have been a much bigger gap between the season-long numbers
Starting point is 00:49:36 and the Bridgewater numbers. But Dave Heath, Michael Thomas, would he still be the number one wide receiver in fantasy for you? Assuming that Bridgewater's the quarterback? I think he would be, but I think there'd be a much closer gap. I wouldn't be as inclined to take him with a top five or six pick in PPR. Yeah. He definitely would be in PPR for me.
Starting point is 00:49:59 I've got him 40 points higher than any other wide receiver in that format right now. In non-PPR, he might not. You know, in non-PPR, he was less than a half a point better on a per-game basis than Chris Godwin. He was not a runaway winner at the position, whereas in PPR, he was about three and a half points better. He's one of my favorite players to project, because I know I just put nine touchdowns in,
Starting point is 00:50:21 and that's how many touchdowns he's going to score. And then I just have to figure the rest out. Dave, how are you feeling about Gary Kubiak being named Minnesota's new offensive coordinator? Love it. Love it, love it, love it. I think it's great for the Vikings. Kubiak's got a great track record of being a shrewd play caller, making the most of his offense. I wonder, and this is a question for Stefan Diggs, how much of what the Vikings did
Starting point is 00:50:45 on offense had Kubiak's fingerprints on it versus Stefanski's? Because it wasn't the, I know Dalvin Cook had a huge year, but there were plenty of games where Kirk Cousins was throwing and playing very well. So I wonder just how much influence Kubiak had, and now he's got all the influence. I would expect it to still be very balanced as close to you know 55 45 as you can get but certainly efficient and definitely smart as to how they utilize the receivers uh looking forward to talking to stefan diggs about that and will fuller had sports hernia surgery and let's just hope this man can stay healthy he's got a ton of talent he's good for deshaun Watson. So the Senior Bowl.
Starting point is 00:51:25 How was it, Dave? How was your week in Mobile? It was fun. It was great. I knew some of the prospects. I knew of some of the prospects going into the week, but there were a lot of other guys that I had not been exposed to, and I got to watch them practice and then play in the game.
Starting point is 00:51:42 And there was a lot of eye-opening. is this is and this is more for dynasty leaguers than anybody else but certainly we can spin it toward everybody that plays fantasy we're getting a large class of wide receivers coming into the national football league it's going to push out a lot of veteran receivers that you guys maybe you'll recognize the names for years they're going to get pushed out there are a lot of very good receivers in the class the best ones weren't even at the senior bowl but there were some there were a couple of amazing route runners van jefferson from florida kj hill from ohio state you're going to hear a lot about ohio state receivers um in the next couple of of months
Starting point is 00:52:20 and maybe years because they're starting to churn them out in a major way of course michael thomas was one of those guys once upon a time um so i i think the wide receiver class is going to be good the tight end class might be a little underrated i'm just not sure we're going to get a big time playmaker out of this group this year and maybe ever but guys that can contribute maybe streaming type of tight ends and the running back back group is nice. Not necessarily as good as the top names in the class, but there are going to be enough running backs in the 2020 class that will push out veteran running backs, again, like the receivers, guys that you've known and used as streaming options. Was there anything?
Starting point is 00:52:58 I don't really have much to contribute here. What about the quarterbacks? How did the quarterbacks look to you? Yeah, what did you think about Herbert? I thought Herbert was good. There were a couple of the biggest negative that I can take away What about the quarterbacks? How did the quarterbacks look to you? Yeah, what did you think about Herbert? I thought Herbert was good. There were a couple of the biggest negative that I can take away from the week on Herbert is where are the deep throws? And in practice, he made a couple of them, and they were really sharp.
Starting point is 00:53:20 He did have a couple of throws that weren't good, and there was one in the game itself. But during the game and for a lot of Oregon's season, it's a lot of short area passing. And that can work with just about any scheme in the NFL. But I really wanted to see more of that deep throwing that he could do. I know he can do it. It's just a matter of him doing it at a very high level and a consistent level. The other question I had, Herbert was the first guy I watched on film before I went to the Senior Bowl, was when it was crunch time in Oregon, I felt like he was a letdown. That he kind of struggled in those types of clutch situations.
Starting point is 00:53:53 And there weren't really any clutch situations in practice. I mean, he's not even allowed to get touched in practice, so he's going to look great there. And in the game, he really looked great in the game. He didn't play that much in the game. He's going to be a first-round pick. He's going to be a first round pick he's going to be a top 10 pick i think he's got a chance to be a like like a quarterback eventually that you'll take as a second option uh in a non-super flex league and obviously in super flex leagues he'll he'll get he'll start at least 10 games next year no matter where he ends up and i think he is pretty close to being a capable starter he's just not on the level of Joe Burrow.
Starting point is 00:54:26 He's just not going to be quite there yet. Okay. By the way, Chris Olave is not draft eligible, but you want to talk about Ohio State wide receivers you're going to be talking about. That guy's awesome. Brian Hartline is the wide receiver coach at Ohio State, and he's helping these guys.
Starting point is 00:54:43 Oh, really? He's helping these guys just run unbelievably good routes. I mentioned K.J. Hill. There was another receiver there from Ohio State named Austin Mack. His first day of practice, he was just as good as K.J. Hill was. These are guys that are going to be right around six feet tall and can be contributors as a slot guy right away. And in the case of Van Jefferson, who didn't go to Ohio State,
Starting point is 00:55:05 but I just kind of lump him in as one of these kind of slick, route-running types of receivers, they're not necessarily going to time well at the Combine. They're not going to be like four or three guys at the Combine, but they're going to be contributors sooner than later. And I'm kind of excited about Van Jefferson because I think he does have a chance to be more than a slot guy. I think K.J. Hill will be a very good slot guy for his entire career.
Starting point is 00:55:28 But Jefferson, who's the son of Sean Jefferson, former NFL receiver, I think he's got a chance to be maybe the fourth or fifth best receiver in the whole class. So he was the guy who opened my eyes the most at wide receiver. I didn't really name names at tight end and running back. I can do that for you if you want adam i would yeah give us that and then wrap up the show with uh some fun senior bowl stories okay um coming into the week joshua kelly was my least favorite running back and as the week went on i realized that he was the best running back at the senior bowl and that a lot of the problems that he had at ucla had to do with his line. And now that he's playing behind an offensive line at the Senior Bowl with a bunch of all-stars from around the country,
Starting point is 00:56:09 he played a lot better, had over 100 yards in the game. Just a real, real – he's a good accelerator. He was the most physical of the running backs that were there. I liked him the best coming out of the Senior Bowl. So total flip on Joshua Kelly over the course of the week. Keyshawn Vaughn from Vanderbilt was my second favorite guy. He didn't play in the game, but he had some good moments in the practice that he did participate in, just a little bit smaller. A lot of these running backs were small.
Starting point is 00:56:35 So I think that just about every other running back that you saw in the Senior Bowl, they'll be guys that can be like part-time backs. I think Kelly's the one who's going to come closest to being a full-time back in the NFL. And then at tight end, my favorite one was Steven Sullivan from LSU. Didn't really do a whole heck of a lot in the game, but in practices, he was the best blocker and pass catcher on the field. I think he had the most speed.
Starting point is 00:56:59 Isn't necessarily a prototypical type of tight end. He's 6'5", 245. A lot of the other tight ends were either the same weight or a little bit heavier. I think he's more of a type of tight end he's uh 6'5 245 a lot of the other tight ends were either the same weight or a little bit heavier i think he's more of a receiver than tight end so i think he'll be better than than uh a typical tight end i think he's a better fantasy tight end than an nfl tight end his blocking can be good i thought it was good in practice adam trotman from dayton was another guy i got to talk to He's a former quarterback who chose on his own to train as a tight end when he got to Dayton. And he was a man among boys playing at Dayton. And
Starting point is 00:57:31 Dayton's not a big time school. They're not playing Ohio State or any Power Five conference teams very often. But his film was great. He was great. He's got the type of mentality that I think coaches are going to look for. And I think he's going to end up being one of those trendy picks in draft conversations. And he'll end up being like a second round pick in the NFL draft and someone that people might take a shot on on draft day in their redraft leagues. And certainly in round two in their dynasty rookie drafts. Okay, Dave. I know you had some entertaining moments last week. Okay.
Starting point is 00:58:03 So what do you think rick spielman's i watched the practices in the press box so there's gms and coaches everywhere i was fanboying like crazy but you know that was on the inside because if i do it on the outside i'll get kicked out spielman's phone went off during the practice what do you think his ringtone is that this is the gm of the minnesota vikings for those that don't know. Stairway to Heaven. It's the Vikings. I knew it. I was going to guess that.
Starting point is 00:58:35 That's awesome. That's exactly what it was. And it's real quiet in the press box when we're watching practice, and then all of a sudden you hear that go off, and it's Spielman,, he's got this aw shucks look on his face and he leaves the press box. That was kind of funny. My hotel room was interesting. You know, you go into a hotel room. It's pretty typical.
Starting point is 00:58:53 You've got your TV on top of the chest of drawers. And then there's a desk. Then there's a chair. And then there's a bed. And then there's a jacuzzi two feet from the bed. You know, pretty typical. Romantic. I think they gave me the honeymoon suite at the hotel that I stayed. Very nice.
Starting point is 00:59:09 Well, I mean, I wish I could have really taken advantage of it. I didn't do it. But I thought that was definitely amusing for sure. I had some great barbecue while I was in town. Adam, what else did I tell you to ask me about on this thing? I'm blanking right now. Well, I just got to, like, a jacuzzi in a hotel room for me is a hell no. I will never, ever, ever participate in that.
Starting point is 00:59:32 What about the hot tub at the pool at the hotel? Yeah, I will do. That's a public venue. Like, you can see what people are doing in there. I know what happens in a hotel jacuzzi, and I'm just not interested in that. Yes, hot tub is fine. Yeah, I didn't go in. But it was there the whole time.
Starting point is 00:59:49 That was certainly. You told me that you. Oh, the flight in? You told me about the bathroom, Dave. That was the bathroom too. I mean, I've got to put this as eloquently as I can. You know, people go to the bathroom. It's a normal thing.
Starting point is 01:00:04 So I'm normal. I'm in the bathroom. On the plane? No, no. This is at the stadium. And who takes the stall next to me but Mike Brown, the owner of the Cincinnati Bengals. So that was kind of cool. But it's the bathroom. You can't strike up a conversation in the bathroom, can't strike up a conversation in the bathroom can you that seems a little no i hope you did so who are you guys taking with the first pick yeah so right um i didn't do that but uh you know just you know two guys that probably really like football a
Starting point is 01:00:40 lot doing what nature intended we're not here no there's nothing there's nothing else you want to know i think that's fine are you sure i think we covered it yeah i think so we got we got all the all the goods i mean marino was sitting right in front of me we could we could start talking about what he was doing at the senior bowl we're gonna talk to dan marino this week on cbs sports hq he was watching he didn't do anything out of the ordinary his cell phone didn't go off. He was not in a jacuzzi. His cell phone ring is probably the Ace Ventura theme song.
Starting point is 01:01:09 That is Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and Ben Gretsch. I'm Adam Azer. Thanks a lot for listening. We'll be back later in the week with another episode, and we'll be on HQ tomorrow morning. And my ringtone is... See you then. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na.
Starting point is 01:01:21 Na, na, na, na, na, na.

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