Fantasy Football Today - 02/11: AAF! Plus AFC Projections and New Coach Tendencies (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 11, 2019

We start with some draft strategies that worked in 2018 and we might use again in 2019 (3:00). Is RB/WR the way to go with your first two picks? Then let's talk a little AAF (5:45) and talk about a new idea for a Fantasy Football league (8:00) ... More 2018 surprises (11:30). Some stats to consider, plus our thoughts on Matt Ryan and Julio Jones (14:00), Saquon Barkley's catches (18:45) and the rookie QBs and their rushing potential (21:50) ... News and notes (27:30) and Heath's AFC projections for a couple of QBs (30:20), RBs (35:50), WRs (38:15) and TEs (41:30). Deshaun Watson over Patrick Mahomes in 4-point per passing TD leagues? Derrick Henry or Sony Michel? Rob Gronkowski or Eric Ebron? And we finish the show with Dave's thoughts on some new play callers (46:30) and what they  might bring to their respective offenses ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Hey, welcome back. This is our Monday show.

And we're going to recap some football here on February 11th. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Hugh Cummings. Hey, how about the AAF? Pretty cool. How about it? Yeah, I liked it. Trent Richardson is back. Well, okay.

He looks like Trent Richardson, apparently. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Listen, it looked like professional football. It did, yeah. I don't know if it was nearly as good as the professional football that we've been talking about. It wasn't, but it could get better. This was their first game.

Anyway, we'll talk a little bit about the AAF. People are interested in it. We've got Heath's AFC projections. We've got some Cam Newton news. We've got some more coordinator hires. And I enjoyed talking about some 2018 surprises on our last show, so I think we're going to talk more about them.

The second highest scoring season of all time. I was kind of surprised it wasn't the highest scoring season of all time. 2013 had it beat 23.4 points per game per team to 23.3 points per game per team. Oh, was that Peyton Manning's 55 touchdown season? Thank you for reading Adam's glorious notes.

Yes, it was. Yes, it was. And, you know, speaking of Peyton Manning, we got a projection on Patrick Mahomes for next year, which I'm going to compare to Peyton Manning's 2014 season when he was coming off his 55 touchdown season. How's everybody feeling today? How was your weekend? Weekend was great. I'm proud to announce that I'm the champion of a daughter who won her soccer league.

It was a rec league. There were only four teams. My daughter scored zero goals all year long. You're the champion of a daughter? My daughter's the champion. I'm the champion dad. Okay. Thank you. And Heath had a sporty weekend Yeah, I coached six basketball games With two teams that

In their first competitive tournament ever And we went 0-6 And had one game within single digits So Lost the last game of the week 42-6 How long are the periods? 14 minutes Is there one period two two 14 minute periods and you guys had six points and did everybody like did you have five players on the court at one time or yes okay uh you like it is and i've done this before my oldest

son we went through this process in his first tournament. They lost every game by at least 25 points, and then eventually they started winning tournaments. The change going from rec league to competitive basketball is absurd. Yeah, well, that's why I never played competitive. I just did rec league, so I knew what I was doing. All right, let's go back in time to 2018. Give me one draft strategy that you employed in 2018 that worked out well, and maybe you'd consider doing it all again. Targeting a tight end.

Yeah. Snips. Seriously, no intentional position. Positional strategy or position strategy? Yes, positional. Positional. And for me, running back wide receiver or wide receiver running back with my first two picks. Which is like the easiest thing in the world to pull off.

But makes sense. Like what 75% of people did. Yeah, but it makes sense. It's good. Because those elite wide receivers are just so much better than the rest of the pack. Yeah, but tell that to the guy that started their draft with Leonard Fournette and Odell Beckham. Well, okay, there's always going to be... You started their draft with Leonard Fournette and Odell Beckham. Okay, there's always going to be... You shouldn't draft LSU Tigers, obviously.

Yes, that's what we'll do. Tell your strategy to the guy who drafted Rob Gronk. Yes. I realized that as soon as I said it. Okay, I thought we'd have a longer discussion about that, but we don't have to. Part of it was I wanted to get a tight end that I thought had great, great potential. Kittle was that guy who I tried to get in a lot of leagues. And I got Ertz in a bunch of... Where did we draft Ertz last year when it was all said and done?

Third or fourth? Yeah. Lay around three, around 35-ish? I was reaching for hertz at one point i don't think kittle really applies like you're talking that was a late round pick with upside you're saying target tight end of the early rounds which okay so here's the groundbreaking analysis here's the tip draft great players late no you're welcome no but i do think i mean i was gonna say tight, you know, prioritize tight end because if you drafted Kelsey or Ertz, you had a huge.

You had a 67% chance of hitting on that strategy. How about Ebron? Well, yeah, I mean. Drafted Ebron late too, you would have been fine. But was that because Jack Doyle got hurt? I mean. He was scoring touchdowns early in the year too. Yeah, of course.

They're always good late-round picks. And they were great mid-to-late-round and free-agent running backs as well. I mean, Nick Chubb won a lot of people leagues, I'm sure. Yeah, I think it was a good reminder this past year that zero running back still works, if applied correctly. Yeah. But we are in a great age of elite running backs as well. All right, so running back wide receiver is a simple way to start your league, and that's something I will be doing, your team.

Most people will be, and no, it's not the wrong thing to do. It might be the popular thing to do, but that doesn't necessarily make it bad. It's not a bad strategy to just start your team with a little bit of balance in those positions. All right, so let's talk about a new type of real football league and then a new type of fantasy football league. So the new type of real football league is the AAF, which I loved, sort of. I say I loved it, but I watched, like, combined 30 minutes.

But I enjoyed those 30 minutes. I watched all of the AAF on CBS. I just didn't see any other. The Saturday night game? Yeah. You know what I was thinking? I. They were very good. I watched all of the AAF on CBS. I just didn't see any other. The Saturday night game? Yeah. You know what I was thinking? I was thinking a few things. One, like Spiro Didis was outstanding because that is you're going in blind.

Right? You've obviously got time to learn the players. But if any of us went and did play-by-play for an NFL game, we would know most of the important players who were catching passes and intercepting balls and making tackles and sacks. You've got nothing if you're Spiro Didis and that broadcast cast crew. So kudos to them. They were great. And then I was also

thinking, this would be so hard to do fantasy football with. Again, you have nothing to go off of. Could you imagine? You're going blind, basically. You can go off the coaches.

You can get a semblance of an idea of just how, like Steve Spurrier is the coach of the Orlando franchise. Yeah. And you know that he's going to be aggressive with the ball. His team put up a lot of points. And Mike Martz was the coach of the coach that's, whoever, San Diego. Yeah. And they scored like six

points. They did terrible. They did better than Memphis. You don't know who's good, though. Do you know if Christian Hackenberg is good? Okay, we know that. Anyway, I just thought that was kind of interesting. How would you even go about doing

A season of Fantasy League I think you would do Fantasy AAF with the draft after the first Two weeks of the year You get two weeks to watch these guys play And then you've got to put a team together We're not going to do that, right? I would

You would? I would, but with the caveat that I'm just not going to be watching the games like I normally do. But if we just want to go on stats, yeah. It could be fun. All right. Who's going to put it together? Not it. Yeah, not it.

Thanks, Heath. I didn't ever offer that I would play. Heath hasn't talked in like six minutes. He's too busy thinking about it. Right about the time. Game plans for his basketball team. Okay, so let's— How do we score eight points?

Let's talk about a new type of fantasy football league. Unless this is completely normal and a lot of people do it and I just don't know about it. But it's an email of the day from Richard at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. It's called the Vampire League. Is this something you guys have heard of before? I have heard of it, yes. Yeah, I think our good buddy Scott Fish does some Vampire Leagues. All right.

I've never done it. The Vampire League runs similar to other leagues except the Vampire. We can determine how the Vampire is selected or someone volunteers. Does not draft a team. The Vampire selects his team from the free agents immediately following the draft. Obviously, that vampire is going to have a worse team. Teams play head-to-head each week, and obviously one team would be playing the vampire each week. Here's where it gets interesting, fun, and hopefully exciting.

If the vampire wins their matchup, theire gets to trade with the team they beat. The Vampire gets to pick one of their starters from the week's matchup and trade that player for one of the opponent's starters for that week. Over the course of the season, the Vampire gets stronger by winning and taking players from their opponent. If the Vampire loses, nothing happens except for the standings. There are several different ways to establish rules for trades. FAB, IR, etc., plus the overall type of league.

PPR, non-PPR, flex, whatever you want to do. That could be sorted out and finalized before establishing the league. But I think that's really fun. You guys have never done a vampire league? I have not, but I'm open to the idea. I just wonder if you're playing for something, does the vampire have to put in as much as everyone else? Right. If there's a league fee, does the vampire have to put in as much as everyone else right if there's a league fee does the vampire get it waived how does does because i don't know if i'm willing to volunteer to be the vampire and pay the same league fee as everybody else i feel like

that gives me a decided disadvantage i'd love to know how the vampires do because i feel like all you have to do is win maybe four times, and you all of a sudden have a really good team. Yeah, sure. I'd also, shouldn't the Vampire have an edge with maybe a couple extra bench spots? Because remember, you're picking after 150 players are taken on draft day. Yeah.

It's a challenge. It's a challenge that maybe we should try. But by the time you win four games, it might be week 10. I would definitely want to be the vampire for the fun of it. It'd be fun to do vampire listener leagues where each of us are the vampire in a league with listeners. Now, I've also heard of leagues where if you win, you get to take a player off of the team that you beat. Yeah, that's the concept, right? Well, no, but that's for everybody in the league.

Oh. So if I beat you in a week, Adam, I get your best player. But next week I lose to Heath, Heath might get that same player. Oh, that would be fun. And I've also heard of, I believe they're called guillotine leagues, where if you're the lowest scoring team you're out kick them out of the league you're out of the league you're gone for the entire that's a heathcubbing specialty right there i well i think richard wants to actually get a vampire league going so it's something we can talk about throughout the off season might be interested in vampiring that thing up all right let's talk about some 2018 surprises, continuing a segment from last week, last episode.

So just some statistics that really stand out. 2018 was the second highest scoring season of all time, just barely behind 2013, which was Peyton Manning's big year, 55 touchdowns. NFL teams ran the fewest plays in nine years. That surprised me. But 2018 set the record for most yards per play. We also had the record for the fewest rush attempts per game in NFL history, but the most rushing yards per attempt. So both with plays and rush attempts, the numbers were down, but the efficiency was way up there. So, yeah, what do you guys think about all those stats?

A lot of scoring, but I think what really jumped out was not a lot of plays. Fewest plays in nine years, despite the second highest scoring season of all time. Blame Adam Gase. Like, the Cardinals and Dolphins ran like 50 plays per game the ravens ran like 74 or something well but if you run 50 plays per game that usually means your opponent is running 70 well it's you're just you're just bleeding the clock more because you're up big and also part of it could be blame patrick mahomes because the chiefs didn't run very many plays for the opposite reason as the cardinals and the dolphins because early in the year it only took them like four plays to score each time they hit the ball. Do you think we're going to have, like I said, 2018 is the second highest scoring season.

2013 is number one. 2014, the ninth highest scoring season of all time. So, I don't know. I feel like the scoring was a little fluky this year. I know people are going to point to the penalties, and just the way the game was officiated basically is why the scoring was up. But I feel like things sort of normalized late in the year maybe. Did I miss anything about how many penalties were called this year?

I didn't see that. I didn't see that. I didn't mention that. I would say that any time there is a the most ever or the second most ever, I would expect it to go backwards a little bit the next year. Is that going to influence drafts at all? Like maybe quarterback's not going to be as deep as we think because the offensive production will be down. Just spitballing. For me, it looks even deeper than it did last year.

There were 18 guys I was fine with last year. As of right now, it looks like there's 21. All right, let's talk about a surprise I wanted to get to last week but did not. Matt Ryan was the number two quarterback in fantasy. That was definitely a surprise. His numbers look pretty similar to what he did in his MVP season. About 4,900 yards both years, 38 touchdowns three seasons ago, 35 touchdowns this year, seven interceptions both times. And I think both times he was the number two quarterback in fantasy. And, of course, sandwiched in between these two amazing years for Matt Ryan was a 4,100-yard 20-touchdown season in 2017.

So what the heck do we do with Matt Ryan, and how do you explain his production in 2018? He was comfortable with the offense. The offensive coordinator was comfortable running it. They learned how to work in the red zone, which is something that they couldn't get done in 2017. And he took a step forward. And that's why he had such a great year.

Top five in consistency as well. Exactly the type of fantasy quarterback you love because you draft them late and you start them. Changing offensive coordinators again, it's going to be Dirk Cutter now calling the plays, but he's been with Dirk before. There's going to be a good comfort level there. I'm reasonably optimistic that he can be a top 10 quarterback again, if not a top 5.

I think he's probably top 10. The one thing I will say that was different from his MVP season, he threw the ball 534 times that season, and he threw it 529 in 2017. The entire Falcons defense got hurt in the first four weeks of the season and he threw 608 passes this year he was actually at 9.3 yards per attempt 7.1 touchdown rate in 2016 that mbp year and we called for some regression and there was way too much probably last year he was at 8.1 yards per attempt 5.8 touchdown rate those are a little bit more normal i just have real questions about whether he throws 600 passes again what

happens with the run game in atlanta this offseason that's really what it comes down to me do they clean house and bring in somebody brand new do they just let tevin coleman walk do they cut devante freeman and bring tevin coleman? They're going to have a run game, obviously. I just don't know if they're going to have one that they will commit to to the point where Matt Ryan's under 550 pass attempts. I think they'll be much more likely to commit to it if they're not giving up 35 points a game. Hey, they had the third fewest rush attempts in the NFL in 2018. So that is a big number.

An important number to keep in mind for the Atlanta Falcons. Those are sort of negatives. Their defense gets better, their running game gets better, would take away from Matt Ryan. But I think a positive is Calvin Ridley, who brings something to this offense that they hadn't really had. He had a nice rookie season. Calvin Ridley was certainly inconsistent.

But 64 catches, 821 yards, and 10 touchdowns. So that bodes well, I think, having another dynamic playmaker out there. It'll help, but I think it's that volume that really helped Matt Ryan out. All right, another surprising thing. Julio Jones caught eight touchdowns in his final nine games. His only eight touchdowns of the season.

But that's amazing. No touchdowns for seven weeks and then eight touchdowns in his final nine games. His only eight touchdowns of the season. But that's amazing. No touchdowns for seven weeks and then eight touchdowns in his final nine games. And finished as a top, I think he was third in PPR and fourth in non-PPR. Fifth in non-PPR. Yeah. Top five in every format and, like you said, third in PPR. Yeah. He had a monster year.

113 catches, 1,677 yards, eight touchdowns, which is really good for him, eight touchdowns. How come nobody's talking about Julio Jones as the number one receiver off the board next year? I think it's partially because he doesn't have a chance at getting 10. One time when he did get 10 touchdowns, I believe it was Cutter who was his coordinator. But why doesn't he have a shot at getting 10 although one time when he did get 10 touchdowns i believe it was cutter who was his coordinator but why doesn't he have a shot at getting 10 yeah i wouldn't say he doesn't have a chance it just feels like it's never going to happen because it hasn't happened

for so many i look if he's got if he has eight touchdowns in nine games he's got a chance to get double digit touchdowns he's got a chance to be a. I think the problem is you can't it's very difficult to project Julio for more than eight touchdowns. And the guys like you would expect DeAndre Hopkins is probably going to score double digit touchdowns. You would expect like Odell Beckham if he plays 16 games

is probably going to score double digit touchdowns. He's also older Julio Jones. He's 30 right now. So I get it. But I think it was surprising to see him go on that touchdown bench. Well, I don't know what was more surprising, the first half or the second half. The first half. No touchdowns in seven games is ridiculous.

He surprised us twice. And he was still good. He was still very good for fantasy in that run. Yeah. Saquon Barkley was second among running backs in receptions with 91. Only Christian McCaffrey had more with 107. And what stands out is we knew he'd be involved in the passing game, but I don't think we thought Barkley would have 91 catches as a rookie.

No, not that many. But it's what will help fuel him to be the number one overall pick in 2019. Did we talk about his splits before the bye and after the bye? I can never remember. No. All right, I'll try to pull up the exact numbers. But bottom line is, he had basically—they had a week nine bye. So eight games before, 8 games after. And he had basically the same amount of touches.

But, oh, here we go. First 8 games, he averaged 14 carries. Was on pace for 116 catches. Last 8 games, he averaged 18.8 carries. And was on pace for only 66 catches. Didn't the defense play better in the second half? Defense played better in the second half. I think part of it—

No Beckham in the second half. They came out of their bye, and they added an offensive lineman, Jermon Brown, who played, I think, right guard for them and actually did okay. Their left guard, their rookie, Will Hernandez, started to get even better. And they said we have to be a running team. I think they were 1-7. I don't know. Yeah, they were 1-7. We have to be a running team. So Barkley, the total

yards were almost the same. The touches were almost the same. The production was great both times, but he was probably a better fantasy option the first eight games because he was better in PPR. He was on pace for 116 catches as opposed to 66 catches. The funny thing is Dave mentioned Odell Beckham. And in the first 12 weeks of the season with Beckham, Barkley averaged 7.6 targets per game.

In the last four games of the season, Barkley averaged 7.5 targets per game. And now I'd like to know how many carries he had with Odell and without Odell. Do you have that? Yeah. Without Odell, he averaged 16.5 carries per game. And with him, he averaged 16.3. So nothing really changed the last four weeks. There was a weird stretch from week 9 through 12 where he had at least 20 carries in three of those games

and no more than four targets in three of those games. And those are with Beckham? Yes, and that's really what throws off the first half, second half, because the last four games look a lot like the beginning of the year. How many carries in those four games, those last four? In his last four? Yeah. 16.5, which was two more than what he averaged the first 12 weeks.

That's pretty interesting. Different ways to slice it, I guess. He had two games with single-digit fantasy points and non-PPR. Yeah. One was with Tennessee. Oh, no. Week 10, week 15. I don't know.

Whatever the heck it was. All right. So how many catches do you think for Barkley next year? 70. 86. All right, he had 91 as a rookie. Last thing that jumped out as a surprise, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 695 for Jackson, 631 for Josh Allen. I mean,

these guys, when you just look at their starts, because Jackson had some rushing yards before he started, like they, okay, and if you splice up Allen's season to before his injury and after, you know, these guys could rush for over 1,000 yards based on what they did this year. It was amazing. For Allen and Jackson to lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards really popped out to me.

And while Allen was kind of strutting his stuff at the end of the year, last six games, I believe, after coming back from injury, he was the number two quarterback in fantasy in both four-point and six-point per passing touchdown leagues. What do you think? I'm going to try and draft Josh Allen with my last pick in every draft.

Oh, please. Josh Allen is going way before that. Well, wherever he ends up going, I'm going to try and get him. Okay. Because I think he's got that Mahomes. When I say Mahomes type of potential, I don't mean 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. I mean a late-round quarterback that you'll end up starting and being very pleased with. Yeah, my only concern about Allen, I mean I have concerns about Jackson too.

I've got concerns about them both. My concern with Allen and the rushing production specifically is that Jackson was doing it with 15 design runs per week and not really averaging very many yards per carry for for a running quarterback i think he's right around five 4.7 in his seven starts that's not that nothing about that screams unsustainable other than being worried about getting getting him hurt alan a lot of his came on scrambles where he just had one massive long scramble in a game. And I don't know how sustainable that feels. In fact, I do. It doesn't feel sustainable.

Does it make you feel any better that he did run a decent amount in college and now he's still willing to do that? I don't know. You're right. It's not sustainable to count him to have a run of 30-plus yards every single week. But 12 touchdowns in his last 25 games in college on the ground, 700 yards and change in those games, I think it's part of who he is. Not to the extent of Lamar Jackson. I wouldn't be surprised if he finished next year with 375 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.

I'll keep it conservative. I think if he goes 375 and three on the ground, you're going to want no part of him on your fantasy team. It's possible. I mean, gosh, did Josh Allen throw a lot of interceptions? He threw 12 interceptions in 11 starts. And, you know, I don't want to judge him too harshly then of course there was lamar jackson whose fantasy production was actually okay in the chargers game in the playoffs but i think anybody who watched it saw something pretty alarming that was the first time that he

faced an opponent for the second time and they really did a great job against lamar jackson there's kind of a fourth quarter comeback that inflated the numbers. I was really frustrated by the Ravens in that game and their lack of creativity until it was desperation time because they just didn't make any effort to throw the ball on the field. Well, get ready for the 2019 Ravens. I expect he's going to throw slightly more often than he did last year. He needs better weapons. Yes, so that's part of it is he needs better weapons.

But they've made Greg Roman their offensive coordinator. And this is the guy that did work with Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo, Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. Great rushing numbers from the quarterback. There are flashes of great plays downfield, but not enough to feel great about the upside of the receivers there, nor the quarterback. I'm worried about Lamar Jackson. Even if you give him great rushing numbers,

I don't know if the passing numbers are going to be there. So who do you guys rank higher? Obviously Dave seems to prefer Josh Allen. Who do you rank higher next year? I've got them back-to-back right now. They're both 17 and 18, and the projections, I've got them back-to-back right now. They're both at 17 and 18. And the projections, I've got Allen just a little bit ahead of Jackson.

I have Allen at 17 and Jackson at 20. Okay. And that's six points for passing touchdown? Yes. Yes. Yeah. I mean, these guys are obviously going to be higher at four points, right? I've got four points right here. I'd say about 13-14. Okay. All right. We've got four-point right here. I'd say about 13-14. Okay.

All right, we've got news and notes. We've got Heath's AFC projections, which will certainly be a multi-week series. Cool. It's a mini-series. Yeah, there you go. Some notes on new coordinators and their tendencies and your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.

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Must be legal drinking age. Cam Newton said he could not throw the ball more than 30 yards. And it's easy to forget how good Cam Newton was before things really came apart late in the season. But he was on pace for his second best season of all time, or of his career, of his career. So, yeah, Cam Newton finished about 12th, 13th in six points, 12th in four points. What do you think about him? I mean, this injury obviously was really serious.

And we've talked about him before, so I'll make it quick. But we are getting more knowledge about the extent of the injury. It completely hampered him. Can you fairly judge Cam Newton from last year's production? Sure, because he had some really nice games before the shoulder really became a problem. I think the offense agreed with him. Trying to

bring up his numbers from the year. I'll just say that... Oh, go ahead. Well, I was going to give you time to pull up his numbers. If you give him... If he gets full clearance by OTAs, he'll be in my top six. If he gets full clearance by the start of camp, he'll be in my top six. He'll probably get that. He completed 68% of his passes last year, which is like –

Amazing. 2017, 59.1. 2016, 52.9. I can keep going back if you want. He had two years where he was at like 61% or 60%. So this was just totally out of the norm. I don't think he was attempting nearly as many deep passes. I would say he was attempting about the same amount of passes per game.

Well, when you're running back and catching 100 passes, that's going to help, right? Sure. Christian McCaffrey is going to help. But no, it was a huge outlier. So that was a huge part of it. Touchdown production wasn't great. Turnovers were still an issue. Well, listen, Dave.

And then there's the rushing on top of it with Cam, which wasn't very good last year. He played 14 games. His first 11 games were great. If you look at his first 11 games, Cam Newton's 16-game pace, 3,926 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, plus another 607 rushing yards and six more touchdowns. So that's good enough to be a top three quarterback. Would you guys rank Cam or Matt Ryan higher next year? I already have Ryan.

I have Ryan higher, but that won't be the case once Cam's given full clearance. The Dolphins hire Chad O'Shea as their offensive coordinator. More on that later. And Raiders wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Free agent wide receiver Josh Gordon could be reinstated by the start of training camp, according to NFL.com.

Alright, Heath's AFC projections. I don't think we'll get to all these guys, but let's start with your Patrick Mahomes projections. Then I want to talk about Deshaun Watson and a few others. So Mahomes, you do have him projected as the number one quarterback next year, right? Yes, in six-point prepass touchdown leagues. What about four? He would be number two.

Behind? The next guy we're going to talk about. Deshaun Watson. So, yeah, you bumped him down considerably. About 500 yards, 15 touchdowns. Rushing total is pretty much the same. We were talking about those Matt Ryan numbers from his MVP season and the yards per attempt and the touchdown percentage.

Mahomes was at 8.8 yards per attempt last year. For the projection, I bumped him down to 8. 8 is still incredible. It's still, if you do that over your career, you're basically the best quarterback of all time. And then touchdown percentage, I went from 8.6 down to 6, which, again, if you have a 6% touchdown rate over your entire career, you're basically the best quarterback ever.

So I don't think that Patrick Mahomes is going to regress and be bad in any way. I just don't think, it's not very likely at all that he repeats what he did last year. But I'd give him more than 35 touchdowns. It's a little bit better than two per game. You've got him at 289 passing yards per game. I guess that's probably right about what we should expect, 4,600 yards. That's what you have him for. That's probably right in line with what you should expect.

It is a tougher schedule for them next year. The road defenses that he'll face include the Jaguars, Patriots, and Bears. He'll tilt towards the Patriots. Maybe. He should, but on the road, I think it's going to be a little bit tougher for him. He's done it twice, right? Done it twice, and he's played against them twice.

Once at home, once in Foxborough. And I would imagine the Patriots probably have a good formula for, at least a good starting point on how to try and limit him after playing him twice. Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, I'm trying to think of a player who was influenced by his schedule. I had it off the top of my head, but now I don't remember. But, no, it's a good point.

And at the Bears, at the Jaguars, not going to be easy. All right, and Mahomes, to compare to Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning in his amazing season, he had 5,500 yards roughly. The next year, 4,700. He went from 55 touchdown passes to 39. He went from 10 interceptions to 15. He was still awesome. I mean, 4,700 yards, 39 touchdowns, 15 interceptions.

That's a great year, but it's just so hard to do what he did in 2013. It'll be hard for Mahomes to do what he did in 2018. All right, so Deshaun Watson finished the year as the number five quarterback in fantasy, and I think what jumps out to me is he had the 15th most pass attempts in the NFL, despite playing 16 games. So do you really think Watson will throw the ball enough to be the number two quarterback and six point per passing touchdown leads the number one quarterback and four point? I think he throws the ball a little bit more than he did last year. I think I've got basically one more attempt per game, which gets him up to right around 520. It's not really that outlandish to

think a guy that's basically played a year and a half now is going to get a little bit longer leash in terms of throwing the football. And hopefully he doesn't get sacked quite as often, so he just gets to throw it a little bit more often. I think job number one this offseason for the Texans is improving that offensive line. And job number two is going to be finding a whole new run game. And the better they do at fixing their run game,

the fewer attempts that'll be there for Deshaun Watson. Well, I don't think he's going to throw it less than 500. I mean, he threw 505 times last year. That's pretty low. I could see it. Bill O'Brien likes to keep it conservative. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he fell below that number, even if he plays 16 games. But it comes down to how they fix the run game.

They let Lamar Miller go. They don't trust Deontay Foreman to be that guy. They either draft somebody or they make a splash in free agency. I could see them doing that. They're a team that needs a new RB1. I will say over the last three years that O'Brien's been there in Houston, 506 is the lowest. They threw 525 times in 2016, or 17,

and they threw 583 times in 2016. And I think a player that's going to impact Deshaun Watson a lot is Will Fuller, who hopefully will be back and ready to go. But he's just better with Will Fuller. His 16-game pace based on eight games with Fuller, 4,571 yards, 32 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. Not as much rushing production. He only had one rushing touchdown in those eight games.

But still, I mean, he's going to put – like he threw for 41 – 4,165 yards this year. Based on the eight games with Will Fuller, you give him 16, it's 4,571. That's 400 more yards and six more touchdown passes. So I think that would help too if he can get a healthy Will Fuller. But I'm sure going into the year, we'll be like, there's no way Will Fuller's staying healthy. Well, the great thing is I liked what we saw from Kiki Kuti last year. The fact that he goes into the season with those three at wide receiver,

even if Fuller goes down, he's got two good receivers. And if Fuller stays healthy, he has one of the top six or seven receiving cores in the NFL. Let's go to some running backs and talk about Derek Henry and Sonny Michel. Who do you like better based on your projections, Derek Henry or Sonny Michel? I've got Henry ahead of Michel right now. I just got a little bit concerned looking at the Patriots because I don't think there's any reason to think that they're going to be a lot different next year. They were in the playoffs in terms of giving the ball to Michel,

but Burkhead was still pretty heavily involved. And so I worry about their sneakiness at the goal line and who's going to get the touchdowns on a given week. Going through this process actually made me a little bit more concerned about Michelle than I was coming off the playoff high. Really? Interesting. Yeah, in Tom Brady's 18 seasons, the Patriots have had 5,000-yard rushers, and it was Antoine Smith, Corey Dillon, Ben Jarvis, Green Ellis, Stephen Ridley,

and LeGarrette Bl blunted that on 299 carries. In fact, Green Ellis was the only of those 5,000-yard rushers who had fewer than 287 carries. I don't know if that means anything. 5,000-yard rushers in 18 seasons, I don't know if that's good or bad. I don't think it's that bad. It seems really bad. You think so? I think a lot of franchises struggle with that, having 1,000-yard rushers.

I don't know. Sure. Some do, some don't. But you know that the Patriots like to throw to their running backs. So just because a guy doesn't run for 1,000 yards shouldn't— But do they like to throw to Sonny Michel? No. James White is the one this past year who had right a ton of yards he had an

outlier season for sure double digit touchdowns too but sony can make play he can catch the football i just wonder if that's something that could expand in 2019 i like sony better than derrick henry you do yeah quick i'm nervous about what the tit Titans offense is going to be. After I dug into Arthur Smith as their new offensive coordinator, there's a lot I just don't like. I'm concerned about the Titans offense, but I feel pretty confident Derrick Henry is going to be an enormous part of it. You project Henry and Michelle for about 1,200 yards, Henry about 80 more yards rushing.

It's similar crappy production in the passing game, but you have Henry for 11 touchdowns and Michelle for nine. Yeah, and nine touchdowns is not a bad year. It's just I have more concern about somebody stealing some of Michelle's touchdowns than I do Derek Henry's. How about some wide receivers? And Juju Smith-Schuster, let's go to him. You have him projected to be your number two receiver in both non-PPR and PPR.

110 catches, 1,528 yards, and nine touchdowns for Juju. Can somebody be the number two receiver with only nine touchdowns, Heath? Well, okay, here's the thing that you have to remember about projections. You're not going to project a lot of guys to catch 13 touchdowns, but somebody's probably going to. Yeah. So I don't have a lot of wide receivers projected for double-digit touchdowns because not a lot are going to do it,

and it's not particularly likely for anyone. But I think you look at what he did last year. 111 catches 1,400 yards and only seven touchdowns after scoring seven touchdowns the year before on 58 917 i i think he has as good a chance to catch double digit touchdowns as almost anyone did you project him with antonio brown not being a teammate nope wow so i can't imagine what those numbers would be if Browns moved on and he's the number one guy and their next best receiver is a journeyman. It could be someone like Golden Tate who they plop into the slot

or they just go with James Washington. You know what I'm saying? Right. I think it could go up 10%. It could go up more than that, especially in the touchdown range. The touchdown range, yes. I don't think it's really likely because I've got him projected for 164 targets right now. I can't imagine projecting him for more than 180 targets.

Just curious, do you have Antonio Brown's projections? 106 catches, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns. How many targets? 171. You got the Steelers going crazy through the air this year. Just like they did last year. What do you have, Roethlisberger as the number three quarterback? Four or five, which is where I had him last year.

Yeah, and he finished, I think, third. And not to be too repetitive, because we talked about Juju on our previous show, but he was second in the NFL in red zone targets and fourth in targets inside the 10-yard line. So he definitely should have had more touchdowns last year. He only had seven. All right, more wide receivers.

One more. Landry or Edelman, you decide. Oh, it's definitely Julian Edelman, especially right now, because the only definite pass catchers the Patriots are going to have back are James White, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski. They will add other receivers,

and if one of those receivers is actually good, then White, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski. They will add other receivers, and if one of those receivers is actually good, then that would lower Edelman's projection. But right now, it looks very similar to what it was in 2018 where he was really the only good wide receiver on the team once Josh Gordon was gone. I think Edelman is in great shape if Gronk leaves because now the middle of

the field is all his. And every time we've seen him get 150 targets, he's gotten over 1,000 yards. The touchdowns haven't been great for him, but he's going to be a guy you'll start every single week, no matter what, if he's averaging 10 targets a game. And you have Edelman as your 14th in non-PPR, 10th in PPR, 96 catches,

1,084 yards, 7 touchdowns. Right. But, you know, couldn't you see the touchdowns go up? Because he really is the only major option right now. Well, I'm still projecting that Gronk's going to be on the team. What do you project? Okay, fine. Then let's transition right into your gronkowski projection

you have him as the number four tight end 59 catches 881 yards and six touchdowns that's interesting yeah and there's not a huge gap from i mean there's a big gap for the top three and then from four through eight or nine there's not really a huge gap he's got far more upside than this the problem is it's also a 16 game projection and he probably shouldn't project 16 games for gronk but i as long as he's there i think he's probably a top five guy how many yards per game do you have for gronk in the 50s i'm doing the math right now it It's in the 50s. 55. So if he's a top five tight end,

you've got him projected as your number four behind Kelsey or Skittle. If he averages 55 yards per game for 12 games, it's 660 yards. Yeah. I don't think anybody wants to sign up for him. Which is really close to basically every tight end below him. Sure. Most tight him. Sure. Most tight ends.

Sure. So when do you have to draft Rob Gronkowski? Fifth round? You have to draft Rob Gronkowski? I don't know. I mean, the other thing is, this is a... If you were drafting today, it's a different story. Because we don't know if he's coming back.

So you couldn't draft him based on what he's projected for. True. But once he said he's coming back, I think fifth round. I've got him in round seven, non-PPR. One more tight end. Eric Ebron, you have him as the ninth best tight end in non-PPR, tenth in PPR, 54 catches. So just to compare to Gronkowski,

Heath has Gronk projected for 59 catches, Ebron for 54, both for six touchdowns, but he projects Gronkowski for 881 yards and 609 yards for Eric Ebron. So what is your Jack Doyle thought, that he's on the Colts? That Jack Doyle is on the Colts is my current thought. If he's not, that would obviously make things much better for Eric Ebron.

And it's very possible that one of these guys is not on the Colts this year. They could make either of those happen with very little pain at all. But assuming both guys are on the team, you look at what was going on with Ebron when Doyle was there. He was scoring touchdowns, but the targets were not there. And really, looking at Eric Ebron last year compared to Eric Ebron's career, he's averaged 11.2 yards per reception for his career. He averaged 11.4 last year. He catches about 60% of his passes.

He caught exactly 60% of his passes last year. He just scored a ton of touchdowns. And I don't think that's very likely that happens again. How many touchdowns do you have him projected for? Six. I'll take the over. I think that he finds the end zone seven or eight times. They like using him down there.

It's a specialty. They're going to add another piece. Doyle could be back like we talked about. The run game could be a little bit better. There's no chance it's going to be double digits. But I think seven or eight scores is definitely right in the range of possibilities for you, Brian. Well, Andrew Luck has had two great fantasy seasons. 2014, 4,700 yards, 40 touchdowns. And last year, 4,600 yards and 39 touchdowns.

In those two seasons, a combined 79 touchdown passes, 38 of them, excuse me, went to tight ends. About half of his touchdowns in his best seasons went to tight ends. In between 2016, he threw 12 touchdowns to tight ends out of 31. So it certainly hasn't been 50% throughout his career. But I just thought that was interesting. He just loves tight ends. And it's not just Ebron. Eric Swope will get in there. Mo Alley-Cox will get in there. That's why I would say six touchdowns for Ebron feels low, even if Doyle's there. Because Luck is going to throw touchdowns to tight ends,

unless maybe they go out and add a really good number two receiver. But short of that, I expect a lot of red zone targets for Ebron. And I think he probably throws three touchdowns to tight ends that nobody has on their fantasy roster. And I've got five to Doyle. So that's 11 plus three, that's 14. Maybe there's one or two more there.

What's three to get to 14? 11 between Doyle and Ebron and three to some tight end that nobody's using. Okay, alright. Dave, coaching tendencies, you want to do them today or you want to save them for Wednesday or Thursday? If you want, we can divide them up and do the head coaches that will call plays today and the offensive coordinators on Wednesday.

Okay, I'm into that. That sound good? Yeah. I rank them based on how I think they'll be for fantasy purposes, who to be excited about, who not to be excited about. And to me, the best new head coach and play caller is in Tampa Bay with Bruce Arians. Arians isn't calling the plays. It's going to be Byron Lefwich, but Lefwich has learned everything from Arians.

In fact, he said that his approach is no risk it, no biscuit, part two, just like Arians who had that famous line about it. Expect a lot of passing. Arians threw the ball 60% of the time three of his last four seasons in Arizona, 60% on the dot overall with the Cardinals. Running back receptions became a huge part of the offense in Arizona. It was 23% of the reception total three of the last four seasons. Tight ends really don't contribute much in that offense.

So let me stop you. So who benefits from the running back reception? He's not on the team. Okay. Whoever it is, it's not Peyton Barber. Although Barber does have the type of body that Arians tends to prefer in his running backs. I just think they'll draft somebody.

Or add somebody. I think Le'Veon in Houston would be even better. And then also, the second one on a lower level, I would love, love, love to see Mark Ingram there. Oh, yeah, that would be fun. Somebody who's not on the team. Okay. And I think O.J. Howard could get to maybe 20% of the team's total catches,

but I think he'll be a lot like ebron in that they'll look for more in the red zone than they will be elsewhere in the game number two coach is freddie kitchens in cleveland uh he was 59 41 pass run in his eight games in three losses 73 percent of the time they threw the ball which is excellent for baker mayfield uh running backs did not get a lot of carries with freddie kitchens.8 per game, a little bit more when they won. But they caught nearly 30 percent of all the catches under Freddie Kitchens. And a lot of it went to Duke, but some of it went to Nick Chubb. Najoku saw more targets with Todd Haley than he did with Kitchens. Landry saw more targets with Haley than he did with Kitchens.

I think Kitchens likes to spread the ball around. So keep that in mind when you're drafting these guys. I think it's going to be great for Baker. I think it's going to be really good for Nick Chubb. I think he has an outstanding year. I think the Browns win a lot, certainly more than they have been. But I don't know if I'm ready to dig into David Njoku again on draft day.

Don't think Jarvis Landry or Antonio Callaway are going to be must-have guys unless you're talking mid-round. Okay, interesting. Green Bay's got Matt. Hold on, would you take O.J. Howard or David Njoku? I'll take Howard over Njoku. Yeah, I actually am not as discouraged about Howard as I was

before I went through the whole projections exercise just because if you look at running back targets in arian's offense before david johnson they weren't as high and then he got an elite pass catching running back and he threw the ball to the running back more he didn't have a very good tight end in arizona now he's got as adam azer has said the very best tight end ever and so i would expect he's going to throw the ball to the tight end more he's not stupid i would love it here's the problem the biggest problem is that they've got a lot of mouths to feed which is great for bruce arians and byron lefwich and great for jamis winston but it's gonna suck for fantasy owners yeah oh yeah but but it's harder for wide receivers i think because yards and catches

matter so much for tight ends it so often just comes down to touchdowns. Howard, which is great there. It's why you can't spend that early to middle round pick on O.J. Howard. You've got to let somebody else do it. Let's see what this receiving core ends up looking like come August. Everything can change by August. So Arians, Kitchens,

and? Malaflor is next in Green Bay. I don't know how much we should judge him off of what he did in Tennessee because they were really two different teams, one through the first 12 games of the year, and then when they realized how to use Derrick Henry, they became run first. The thing that I'll point out is that tight ends caught 23% of the catches

in 2018, and that's with Delaney Walker barely playing. I would imagine that LaFleur is going to lean on Aaron Rodgers. They're going to bootleg him out, use his mobility, protect him better in the pocket. They need to find a good second target for him, whether they cultivate one from the rookies last year or they add somebody in free agency. Devonta Adams is going to get targeted a bazillion times.

And it sounds like Jimmy Graham is going to be back, but I'm not that excited about him. Even if he does get 20% of the catches, I don't think there's going to be a lot of yardage there. And he's going to be kind of what he's been the past couple of years, which is a touchdown needy tight end. I think that's what he's become. The floor is one of the ones I've kind of got a red flag next to as far as the new guys. Just because I agree with Dave, it's hard to make much out of 2018 because of the situation and how it changed mid-year. I don't know how much credit to give him for 2017 because, I mean, he wasn't calling plays.

No, he was just coaching the quarterbacks in L.A. Right. So it's a little bit. Or he was the offensive coordinator in L.A., but he wasn't going to play. Air quotes offensive coordinator. That's what he was, not the quarterback's coach. But it's a little bit of a tricky situation. Yeah, it absolutely is.

I think it's weird. It's somewhat of a weird hire, but we don't know his tendencies yet. I mean, he's going to adapt to the players that he has. He's got Aaron Rodgers now. Right. Most coaches, the good coaches adapt. The bad ones who don't last very long don't. It would be stunning if Matt LaFleur arrives in Green Bay and says,

we're going to be an Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams team. You know they're going to throw the ball. Of course. It's just a matter of who's going to end up getting it and where the play calls go. If LaFleur's smart, he lets Aaron Rodgers really take the wheel most of the time anyway. Arizona's going to be interesting. These are where the offenses are going to be very interesting. These might be the red flag offenses. Cliff Kingsbury, you know what he's done in college.

Spread formations very, very heavy toward wide receivers. 82% of the receptions in each of the last five years with Texas Tech went to wide receivers. And he really, until very recently, specialized in small, fast receivers. KikiQT was one of those guys for him. There's a couple other ones. They're not on the tip of my tongue right now but very fast very small type of wide outs that he did great things with and neglected running backs kind of in the process 23.3 running back carries per game in college that's pretty low deandre washington did have back-to-back thousand yard seasons

despite that number i do think david johnson will be an anomaly for Kingsbury. He should try and find ways to lean. Running the ball shouldn't be a problem. He should obviously do that probably more than he would have in college, but he's going to find ways to utilize him in the passing game as well. I think Christian Kirk is the best fit based on who's on the roster now for Arizona. And I do think there is potential, especially once they get the line fixed, to have that offense really start to get fired up. There could be some really, in theory, there should be some really great numbers coming their way. I just wonder if it's not going to happen in the first half of 2019 because they're still adjusting. We don't

know how great that offensive line will be. We don't know how Josh Rosen's going to be. And we don't know just how many great weapons. They need so many things that in time it could be a lot of fun to watch, but to start the year and for fantasy drafting purposes, the only two that are on my list are going to be Johnson in round two, and I think he could be a great bargain there, and Christian Kirk a little later on. Fitzgerald will get targets and catches, but he doesn't have the speed.

Yeah, Fitzgerald stinks. Heath, you picked Fitzgerald in a draft that was a terrible pick. You said it was your favorite pick. It was terrible. I took him in round 13. That's a great pick. That's an awful pick. He took him in round 13 because we weren't sure if he was going to play.

It was non-PPR, right? I think it was that, too. Yeah, it was a terrible pick. Now where would you take Larry Fitzgerald in a non-PPR, right? I think it was that, too. Yeah, it was a terrible pick. Now where would you take Larry Fitzgerald in a non-PPR draft? Round 18. Seven? Yeah, I'm probably going to be past round seven. We'll talk a lot about him.

All right, so the rest we can directly go to the website. I've got two more coaches that I can get through real quickly. One is Adam Gase. People aren't going to be a big fan of his anyway. Only twice in his play-calling career has he had a running back with over a thousand yards he's he tends to be pass friendly could be good for sam darnold could be very good for robbie anderson assuming he stays quincy and no one the slot think about the slot receivers in miami and how they've done under gaze i think quincy and no one can be that guy and then zach taylor's taking over

in cincinnati he's got great weapons around him. You know that offense is loaded. I really like Tyler Boyd. I think Tyler Boyd is going to step up under Zach Taylor, working in the slot. A.J. Green should get good numbers as well. Joe Mixon should be okay. Andy Dalton, deeper leagues, two quarterback leagues,

you'll draft him there. Are you guys ranking Dalton ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson? No, but he's right in that same range. Okay. I do currently have him ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo. I've got him behind him. You have him ahead of

Jimmy Garoppolo? Yes. I don't. I've got Garoppolo ahead. Wow. What a dreadful take. Oh, yeah. But then again, Adam, we are talking about a time in fantasy football where there's a ton of quarterbacks that are going to look good on a roster. Oh, yeah. Let's take the veteran who's basically never been great for fantasy except for like three times.

No, except for like one lucky season. Wait, when you said a veteran that's basically never been good for fantasy, were you talking about the 28-year-old quarterback? No, I'm talking about the guy that we know who Andy Dalton is. We know it. We've seen him be a top five quarterback like three different times. No way has Andy Dalton been a top five quarterback. Not over a full season, but over a 12-game stretch here, a 10-game stretch here, and then one time for a full season.

Yeah, one time. That's three more stretches than we've seen it from Jimmy G. No, Jimmy G over a, what, five-game stretch at the end of... Okay, so there's that. So let's count the number of five-game stretches Andy Dalton had at the top five. Come on, dude, you know it's about upside.

Come on, Heath. There's a lot of upside for Andy Dalton if everybody's healthy. I mean, like how – Top five. All right, next week we have to do the Jimmy Garoppolo projection. Oh, this is fun. Oh, I missed this stuff. All right, we'll come back on Wednesday or Thursday with our second episode of the week.

Thanks for tuning in, everybody. I didn't get to email us today, but I got a bunch of them saved for our next show. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. For Dave, for Heath, I'm Adam. Talk to you