Fantasy Football Today - 02/13: Hunt is In, Brown Wants Out, Flacco the Bronco (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 13, 2019

Reacting to the big news as CLE signs Kareem Hunt (0:55) and Antonio Brown asks for a trade (6:45). Who is the best RB in CLE this year and in dynasty leagues? Is Ben Roethlisberger going to tumble in our rankings? Where do we want to see Brown end up? We break down every angle ... The Broncos acquire Joe Flacco for some reason (11:42)! Is this good for anyone in DEN? ... A new stat that Adam is pumped about (16:00) plus more of Heath's AFC projections at QB (20:00), RB (24:20), WR (28:40) and TE (33:00). We'll get into Lamar Miller, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and more ... News and notes including some NFL Draft notes and a ridiculous trade proposal (35:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! Your friends don't play fantasy? LOL. What a bunch of nerds. Let's go!

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We were not expecting to have a breaking news podcast on February 13th, but here we are. First of all, we're not going to be podcasting tomorrow, so Dave Heath, happy Valentine's Day. Thanks, Adam. Be mine. Oh, all right. Sorry. If that was an awkward way to start. Would you? Yeah, well, I could be quarterback for the Broncos. They'll take anybody these days. I'd rather do that. Joe Flacco is getting traded

to the Broncos, according to reports that are just breaking. Also, Kareem Hunt is on Cleveland, and Antonio Brown requested a trade. So we're going to get through all of that. Here's my first fantasy question for you. Who would you rather have in a dynasty league? Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb?

Chubb. I'll take the guy that's not going to get suspended over the guy who is going to be starting running back say seasonal i said dynasty who do you like long term they're chubb chubb chubb chubb okay what the hell why why cleveland why because they're in the business of trying to win football games. And this is a player that the general manager has been very familiar with for a long time, who was available, and can play football at a pretty high level. We've seen that.

26 touchdowns in 28 career games, 15 games with over 100 total yards. Now, we can definitely make the argument that that was because of the offense he was in in Kansas City. But even if he goes into a part-time role in Cleveland, that's still a hell of a player to have in a part-time role. There's the obvious PR hit, and it should last a lot longer than it will last. My thoughts on this are John Dorsey drafted Kareem Hunt. He believes that Kareem hunt deserves a second chance he's got a lot of goodwill in cleveland right now because he has baker mayfield

and things are moving the right direction he took this pr hit kareem hunt's going to sit out the first half of the year he will make some plays for them in the second half and then he will turn into a third round pick before 2020 meaning they they trade him or they just let him go. Well, they have his restricted rights. Right. So it's going to be by 2021. Well, they could keep him for two years at a pretty cheap rate. But this has to bump Nick Chubb down, right?

It bumps Nick Chubb down. I was considering him in the first round. I would still not let him fall out of the second round. I am very hopeful he's now going to fall to the third round, and I'm going to be dancing in the streets. There's not a chance, if you're in a draft with me, that you're going to get Nick Chubb in the third round. Honestly, it moved him behind some wide receivers for me,

but I'm not confident enough in some of the other running backs that are ranked behind Chubb to put him ahead. We don't know how long cream hunt's going to be out for he's just speculated half the season okay let's maybe it could be more it could be the whole year let's do it based on a guess let's say it's half the season let's say you know at some point cream hunt's going to be part of this backfield i'm not so sure he's going to dominate it like he did in kansas city so we won't i don't think there's any chance he does oh i think he might bump duke johnson out there's any chance he does. Oh, of course not.

I think he might bump Duke Johnson out of playing time because Kareem Hunt's a hell of a pass catcher. Well, he can be. Yeah, they didn't quite use him that way all the time. He caught 26 passes in 11 games. His rookie season, he caught 53 in 16 games. Nick Chubb wasn't really that involved in the passing game, but he did have a stretch of three straight games with three catches for 33 to 44 yards

and two touchdown catches in those three games. So he showed that he can do that. By the way, so Nick Chubb had two touchdown catches. 17 running backs caught three or more touchdowns in 2018. That's just something you want to consider when you're thinking about where to rank these guys, when to draft these guys. Are they going to get three or more touchdown catches? 17 did.

Are they going to have zero touchdown catches? You know, that's going to put them behind a lot of players. That's kind of a side note. I think one thing with Chubb, though, to keep in mind, because I've looked at a lot of the Brown stuff just looking at the Freddie Kitchens portion of the Brown season. And his 16-game pace for receptions during the Freddie Kitchens portion of the season, 42 targets, 36 catches, 278 yards, and four touchdowns in the year. Four would be very nice. And also his 16-game pace in the 10 games after the Carlos Hyde trade,

you're talking about certainly a top-five running back. He would have had 1,300 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. That would have been the second-most rushing yards in the NFL behind Ezekiel Elliott. So you're talking close to elite territory there, not necessarily in PPR, though. All right, so let's compare chubb to some other guys that are going in that range uh philip lindsey chubb yeah okay um are we doing this in

ppr or not let's do ppr. Well, there's two different ranges here. Who is joining him? Melvin Gordon. I'll take Melvin. Melvin. Okay, how about Sonny Michelle in non-PPR? I need better names here. I think Dalvin Cook's a good one.

Okay. Dalvin Cook. I'll take Chubb. I think I'll still take Chubb. Aaron Jones. Chubb. Chubb. So you don't think Kareem Hunt comes back in week nine and gets— All of a sudden lights the world on fire and puts Nick Chubb on the bench?

No, he doesn't have to put him on the bench, but he gets— Nick Chubb's carries go from 18 per game to 14 per game. And he might lose a goal line carry here or there. But Hunt will take much more on the passing situations. When he comes back, it's going to be Chubb as the main back, Hunt as the secondary back, Duke Johnson as the guy you wish you didn't spend a late-round pick on. Any other angle you want to cover here?

It's good for Baker Mayfield, by the way. This is just another talented player in the offense. And, of course, this is all dependent on him being suspended for only half the year and not the whole year. There's still a chance that the NFL could come down quite hard on Kareem. Okay, how about Antonio Brown? Antonio Brown requesting a trade. So there's that. Dave, you did a

Twitter fill-in-the-blank. Where do you want to see Antonio Brown go? Where would you be happy? If you're going to spend a first-round pick on Antonio Brown, where do you want him to go? And? Tons. The results are all over the map. A lot of people

don't want to take him in the first round no matter where he goes. Some people only want to take him if he's with the Steelers or the Patriots. And some people will take him no matter where he goes. I would say, because there was a report that came out that said they will not trade him to the AFC North and they will not trade him to the Patriots. So eliminating the patriots i would say that the couple of places that come to mind um indianapolis is he a first round pick there though i would say he's very cool i mean i i don't have him in the first round pick right now

if he's in pittsburgh he's not a first rounder? Right. He's not my number one wide receiver like he is yours. San Francisco is a place where he could go get 180 targets again with a seemingly good quarterback. I don't want him to go there because I want to have Jimmy Garoppolo arguments with you, Heath, the entire offseason. I really look forward to that. And we won't be able to have those arguments if Brown's there because everybody's going to love Jimmy Garoppolo. Yep. Yeah, so I'm rooting against that. But in all honesty, for fantasy, that would be great.

Any place you think would be bad for him that's realistic? Or is he that good? Oakland. It doesn't matter. Well, I think Oakland wouldn't be great, but I think he'd get a ton of targets in Oakland. I don't know if he's going to get 170 targets in Indianapolis or Green Bay or San Francisco. Oh, Green Bay would be...

I think San Francisco he would for sure. Green Bay would be good or bad. I think it would be bad. I don't think it would be good. I don't think it would be first-round good. I don't know if there's a spot other than the Patriots that would be first-round good. Well, he ain't going there, as of now. We'll see.

Get over it. Belichick could just drop pick 32 overall in Mike Tomlin's lap and say, what do you think of this, Mike? Seattle would be bad. What? Seattle would be bad. They're going to throw the ball like 400 times. Let's recap Antonio Brown recently.

In the last five seasons, he's been the number one wide receiver in PPR four times. And the other time was last year. He was number three, and he was second in points per game. In non-PPR, he's been top three five straight years. Three times he's been number one. Twice he's been number one. And in two of the three years, he wasn't number one. Twice he's been number one. And in two of the three years he wasn't number one.

He was actually number one in points per game. Antonio Brown has been on just an unbelievable run. 101 or more catches in six straight seasons. 1,284 yards or more. Eight or more touchdowns. And that's like low for him. 1,300 yards, eight touchdowns is low. Four seasons out of his last six with 1,499 or more receiving yards.

But is he declining? 12.5 yards per catch last year was low. But I will remind you, it was 12.1 in 2016. And then 2017, he was incredible. He had 15.2 yards per catch. He was having basically his best season. His catch rate, on the other hand, 62% two straight seasons. That's pretty low for Antonio Brown.

It was 68.8% or better the three prior years. And last year, 62%. Basically, two years in a row, 62%. So that's a question you've got to ask. Is he on the decline? He might be. And that's something you have to keep in mind with him. And just Pittsburgh was a great situation for him. You know he had a great rapport with Ben Roethlisberger.

Ben Roethlisberger is even a top 12 quarterback next year without Antonio Brown. Pending what else they do at the position, no. The difficult part is they threw the ball so much over the last two years. I mean, 640 attempts seems very reasonable. If he throws it that many times and just has Juju and James Washington and James Conner,

he's still probably a top 12 quarterback for me. But certainly not like top five. No, right now I've got him third, so I'd have to drop him a little. All right, in a four-point-per-passing touchdown league, rank the AFC North quarterbacks if Brown is not on the Steelers. And they don't replace him. And they draft a wide receiver in the first round,

which usually doesn't mean all that much in a rookie year. I would be surprised if they would do that. They're good at finding receivers later on on draft day. But I think it would be baker ben lamar dalton which is how i have it now anyway just the gap between ben and lamar would shrink and there would be a bigger gap between baker and ben a browns quarterback the number one quarterback in the afc north and fantasy okay let's go to our next news item. Joe Flacco is reportedly being traded to

the Denver Broncos. Here's my bold prediction. This is John Elway's last year as in the front office. He will be fired at the end of the 2019 season. Who's firing John Elway? The Broncos. I don't know. They've got

a lot of ownership issues right now that they might not want to try and make the whole franchise. Yeah, he's gone. This is going to be a terrible decision. Turned upside down. One failed quarterback after another from a former quarterback. It's terrible. They're going to be awful.

Goodbye. That's how I'm feeling right now. I feel similarly. This is not good for anyone is it no no it's uh it's it's a mess they're gonna draft another quarterback so i think you have to view joe flacco not as elite but more as like stopgap elite but Or just view him as exactly the same guy they had last year. Now, that's interesting that you would say that. Same guys last year.

Have you compared the two? Yes. Case Keenum has been better than Joe Flacco since Case Keenum joined the NFL. He has averaged more yards per attempt. His adjusted yards per attempts are a half yard higher. He has the same touchdown rate. He has a better interception rate. He has a better quarterback rating.

Joe Flacco has one year in his career with more than 4,000 passing yards. They're giving up something to get Joe Flacco, too. This isn't a free agent sign. Even if it's a seventh-round pick, Adam, it's ridiculous. Flacco won't even start more than nine games they're going to be bad offensively their poor defense they've got so

much talent it's going to go to waste and uh yeah this does not make me want to draft courtland sutton it makes me cold on deshaun ham. It makes me nervous on Philip Lindsay. And we haven't even gotten to who's calling the plays for Denver. Well, let me just talk about wide receivers under Joe Flacco recently. There have been some success stories, nothing huge. Last year, John Brown in Flacco's nine games, John Brown was on pace for 1,068 yards. I don't think he was going to get there because it was just getting worse and worse for him. He got off to a hot start. Four of his last five games with Flacco were terrible.

But he was on pace for 1,068 yards. Maybe he would have gotten there. Mike Wallace in 2016 had 1,000 yards, just over 1,000 yards. Steve Smith had 1,065 yards in 2014. And in 2015, he was really crushing it. He had 670 yards in only seven games. So Smith was really an example of a number one receiver who did very well with Joe Flacco. Torrey Smith in 2013 had 1,100 yards, actually 1,128. Just a promise, touchdowns aren't there.

I mean, to be fair, Flacco is probably, throughout his career, he really has not been surrounded by great talent. Maybe the group of receivers that he'll have next year with Denver will be better than any group he's had with Baltimore. So I don't know. Does it crush every wide receiver there? Is there anyone who can thrive? It's not worse than Case Keenum particularly. I mean, a little bit, but it's not like any such thing is a significant downgrade from Case Keenum particularly. I mean, a little bit, but it's not like there's any such thing

as a significant downgrade from Case Keenum. So I'm not going to move them in my rankings likely from where I had them with Case Keenum. Where'd you have Cortland Sutton? Was he a top 30 receiver for you? No. Top 40? I think he was in the 30 to 40 range.

Right. I had him at 39th. I'm going to keep him there. Non-PPR. Yeah, and Emmanuel Sanders had 868 yards, four touchdowns in 12 games, then he tore his Achilles. So we're not really talking about him. Do you think he will be on the Broncos?

Sanders? Yeah. Not sure. Yeah, it's up in the air. He is a potential cap casualty. He would have been that way even if he didn't get hurt. Well, there are your big headlines. Busy week in the NFL.

Hey, if you need more NFL coverage, make sure you check out the Pick 6 podcast. Will Brinson does a great job, and they do five shows a week even during the offseason. So hardcore football fans, you're going to love the Pick 6 podcast. Check it out. Here is a cool stat I never knew about. Somehow, I look at the red zone carries, passes, targets page on Pro Football Reference a lot. And I never noticed this column because I'm dumb. You can look at the percentage of a total team rush attempts inside the opponent's five-yard line for a player.

In other words, how many carries inside the five-yard line did Nick Chubb get out of the entirety of the Browns' rush attempts inside the five-yard line? It was actually pretty low for Nick Chubb. He split some time with Carlos Hyde, obviously. I think it was like 33.3%. So who led in this category? David Johnson had 100% of his team's carries inside the five-yard line. All right. Arizona did something right with David Johnson after all.

I didn't think that was true, though, because wasn't there that game? Chase Edmonds. Where Edmonds had two touchdowns? Were they inside the five? Don't know. It could have been from the six or the seven-yard line. Yeah, look it up. Look it up.

That does not seem correct. I think you just found a cool new stat that's not right. It's possible. That game would be week 13, so you can look into that. Chris Carson, 86.7%. Saquon Barkley, 80%. Now, I will say, even if these stats are not right, and I suspect that some of this red zone data is not right,

I think it's close. Peyton Barber, Joe Mixon, 75%. Todd Gurley, 72%. I'm sure it was much more than that before the final few games. Leonard Fournette, 71.4%. Jordan Howard, 68.8%. And LeGarrette Blount, 68.8% among the leaders. But I think Chris Carson.

It looks accurate. Oh, really? What do you got? Chase Edmond had two carries from the six-yard line, two carries from the eight-yard line, but I don't see any carries inside the five. That's cool. All right.

I'm happy. This is a great new stat. Love it. Adam, do you have any surprisingly low percentages? Derrick Henry, 56.5%. Say that again? Derrick Henry, 56.5%. Say that again? Derrick Henry, 56.5%. And I'm sure that percentage would be much higher in the last four games of the year.

Christian McCaffrey, 57.1%. I'm sure that factors in Cam Newton. Let's see, what else? Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore were both at 50%. Aaron Jones was at 44.4%. Here's one. Phillip Lindsey, 42.9%. And if I had time, you know, like we could do this later,

we can dig into the game log. You can see every red zone rushing play for Phillip Lindsey, and you can see maybe later in the year, he started getting more close to the goal line. Sonny Michel only 41.4%. Alvin Kamara 39.4%. So, yeah, I think there's something there. I didn't really make a segment out of it,

but it's a cool tool for fantasy football people out there. Just go to pro football. Do a Google search. Pro football reference red zone stats. You can do passing, receiving, and rushing. And rushing is broken down by inside the 20, inside the 10, and inside the 5. And have fun with it.

Have fun with Heath's AFC projections. We will get to some of those right after this. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play.

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and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations security in canada.ca security in canada insurance designed for life all right let's start with baker mayfield so now we know he's uh your your highest ranked uh quarterback in the afc north what are you projecting baker mayfield for heath he is not currently my highest ranked quarterback in the AFC North because I've not adjusted Roethlisberger without Antonio Brown. But I do have him projected

for 4,279 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 177 yards on the ground, and a rushing touchdown. That's good for QB9 in standard CBS scoring leagues, just ahead of guys like Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott,

Tom Brady, just behind Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston. And that's a 16-game projection for Cam. I don't actually have him ranked there, but that's the projection. Okay. So for Baker Mayfield, 4,279 yards, 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. Dave, does that seem cool? Dare I say that you are predicting touchdown regression for Baker Mayfield? Because last year, in his 13 starts, he had 27 passing touchdowns,

a little more than two per game. It sounds like you're giving him a little less than two per game. That would be, if he played 16 games, just as little less than two games. As possible. As possible. Yeah, let's look at what his touchdown rate was. It was 5.6%, which is very, very good for a quarterback, and it's possible that he could repeat that.

But I do have him a little bit lower than 5.6%. I've got him somewhere between 5 and 5.5. So Mayfield, one thing that stood out to me, why I think Week 17 was so encouraging, he had six games last year. He started 13 games. He had six games with 21 or more fantasy points in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. If you don't play in that format, 21 fantasy points isn't great, but it won't kill you. I think at this point you probably want to be at like 23 or more, just a guess. But six games with 21 or more fantasy

points, four of those six opponents were the three worst, or I guess the three best matchups in fantasy. Bengals twice, Falcons bucks. Another one of those games was against the Chiefs. They were 10th worst against quarterbacks. So I guess you could say five of his six best games was against the Chiefs. They were 10th worst against quarterbacks. I guess you could say five of his six best games came against easy competition. Four of his six best games came against the easiest competition. But then there was Week 17 and he had the third best game

all year against the Ravens of any quarterback. Only Andy Dalton and Cam Newton scored more fantasy points. He did throw three interceptions, but he had a big game against the Ravens in Week 17. He also only completed 55% of his passes in that game. So it wasn't a great game by any means. It was a loss, tons of turnovers. He's not a finished product. I'm projecting him as a top 12 fantasy quarterback based on Cleveland making a move additionally on offense to help their passing game. And it doesn't seem like Duke Johnson's absence will really be a huge issue.

He wasn't all that involved last year. He had just 47 catches, 429 yards, three receiving touchdowns. If he's even absent. Yeah, he might not be. He might not be. Might be on the team. I'm not 100% convinced that Kareem Hunt would be better for Baker Mayfield because I could see them saying,

hey, we got two of the best running backs in football. Let's run the hell out of the ball. They could. They absolutely could. And they might do that in the scenario that Kareem Hunt gets a minimal suspension and comes back looking great and plays like he did when he was in Kansas City I do think that Baker was so efficient last year like I have him as a top 10 quarterback and he has the second fewest pass attempts of anybody that I projected of anybody that I have in the top 10 he's good we like him he's got a bright future all right

running back uh james connor and lamar miller so you're you gave me these james connor projections earlier in the week as the number five running back in non-ppr number seven in ppr 1185 rushing yards 576 receiving yards a monster monster year, 13 touchdowns. Anything change without Antonio Brown? You know, I think it's possible if Antonio Brown's not replaced by another good wide receiver that you could see his yards per carry go down just a little bit. If teams are able to stack the box a little bit more against them, he's at 4.5 is what I've got him projected for right now.

He may be closer to 4, the rush, but you also may see his targets go up a little bit as well if we don't see another adequate replacement for Brown. So he could be closer to 100 targets instead of the uh 85 i haven't projected for now anybody have any doubts about james connor being a top seven running back the track record of running backs in pittsburgh is very strong the The potential that Connor, forget about potential, what he showed last year was that he's capable of being just an amazing stat producer for fantasy. He's not Le'Veon Bell, but he can still move the chains,

push piles, score touchdowns. And the fact that now the Steelers have to replace 170 targets in their offense, it's 170 pass plays or just plays in general that have to go somewhere else. This helps James Conner. And he's not Le'Veon Bell, but he did have 4.5 yards per carry and 9 yards per reception on a pretty decent volume considering he only played 13 games. How many targets and catches did he have last year, Heath?

71 targets, 55 receptions. So there's room for that to go up. Well, yeah, because it was only 13 games. Oh, yeah. There's real chance for that to go up. Do you think that they say, oh, hey, Jalen Samuels is pretty good. We need to get him more involved. They might.

That's a possibility. I think we would see that. We would hear about it playing out in training camp, and we would probably see it in one preseason game next projection lamar miller i mean he's lamar miller heath you know was this a hard projection to make um a little bit because like he was really good last year and i've got him basically projected like lamar miller which is not bad he's a great fallback option as your number two running back historically he falls farther than he should in drafts and then he bores his way to a uh top 24 running back finish he was really good last year

he was he he was more efficient last year than he had been the previous couple years in Houston. He had a great six-week, maybe seven-week stretch, starting at Jacksonville in Week 7, ending against the Colts in Week 14. So he could have carried you in those games. Overall, 973 rushing yards, 163 receiving yards in 14 games i mean the real problem for him in terms of making the next step is that he's not scored more than six touchdowns in fact he scored exactly six touchdowns every year he's been in houston total he's a he is a that's low-end number two fantasy running back,

regardless of format, who could be replaced. Oh, you know what I want to see? A movie? 35.7% of his team's carries inside the five-yard line. Deshaun Watson also had 35.7%. Alfred Blue had 28.6%. See, I like this stat. I like it.

I'm doing the math to try to make sure that equals 100%. I think there's somebody else that had a carry. Yeah, there could be someone else there. Yes, we have Deontay Foreman had, oh, 0%. No, I think that's it. I think it's just those three. 36%, 36%, 28% basically. Does that work?

Yeah. We'll go ahead and say yes. They could save over $6 million in cap space if they want to let him go. We'll see how much the coaches like him. We'll see if they agree that he was a good running back last year. 4.6 yards per carry. YPC for life. How about wide receiver Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen?

Let's talk about them. So now Landry, a lot of brown stuff lately. Jarvis Landry you have projected as a number three wide receiver. Only 69 catches is your projection for Jarvis Landry. And I actually don't even remember what his final numbers were last year. So let's go ahead and look that up. But, yeah, talk about your projection for Landry and I actually don't even remember what he what his final numbers were last year so let's go ahead and look that up but yeah talk about your projection for Landry well again I talked about how I'd done a lot of stuff looking at the Browns after Freddie Kitchens arrived and

what happened was the ball got spread around and Jarvis Landry did not see anywhere close to the same number of targets once Kitchens was there basically averaging six targets per week his catch his catch rate went down it was just really bad for his value i don't know for sure that we're going to see that again but he saw about 20 of the team's targets after that pittsburgh game which is way down for his career he's only had one year where he really was used heavily in the red zone so i i think he's probably falls short of a thousand yards and finishes somewhere in that five to six touchdown range so let's just take those games those eight games after the pittsburgh game and his 16 game pace would have been 64 catches on 110 targets you have him for 69 catches. He would have had 896 yards and four touchdowns,

and you have him for 888 and five. So, yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense as a projection for Landry. And, yeah, he was a guy that I was concerned about because I thought that for sure one of Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry would end up being a bust. I just did not think they'd be able to sustain both. And they both were busts, even though Jarvis Landry got traded.

Hypothetical question. Let's live in a world for a second where Antonio Brown becomes a Cleveland Brown. What does that do to Jarvis Landry? Does it open him up to be in single coverage all the time in an easy short area target for Baker Mayfield? And he has a chance to just volume his way up closer to 1,000 yards like he did this past year. I'm just not sure Baker Mayfield is looking for that type of throw like Ryan Tannehill was.

Yeah. My other argument against Landry was that it just felt like Miami was such a perfect situation for him. He was the best receiver. He had a quarterback other than Jay Cutler. He had a quarterback who struggled to throw the ball downfield. But he had his best numbers with Cutler. He had his touchdowns with Cutler, yeah.

I just thought he wasn't the kind of guy who was going to go to a new place as a number one wide receiver and really be a number one wide receiver. It just didn't feel that way to me. I don't think he's – he's fine. didn't feel that way to me. He's fine. He's not a great player. He's fine. But can he be a PPR stud? Not if he's catching 69 passes, which is what Heath has him for.

Keenan Allen you have as a top 10 wide receiver, but toward the bottom. 10th in non-PPR, 9th in PPR. What are you projecting for Keenan Allen? 102 catches, 1263 yards, and six touchdowns. I'd love to see him score more touchdowns. I'm afraid with Mike Williams and Hunter Henry back and the way they threw all the running backs last year

and the way they like to hand it off to Melvin Gordon in the red zone, it's going to be difficult for him to be a big touchdown guy. But it's going to be difficult for defenses to clamp down on him once they're back at full strength offensively now they they basically were for this much of this past season but not until mike williams got on the radar and that wasn't until a few weeks into the year and hunter henry coming back is going to change things even more i think he can have more than six touchdowns yeah i would take the over on keenan allen having he has had more seven plus more than six touchdowns. I would take the over on Keenan Allen having seven plus. He has had more than six touchdowns once in his career. It was his rookie

year. Yeah, and he only had 15 red zone targets last year, only seven targets inside the 10-yard line. That's not very good. Go back to 2017. I know in 2017, Phillip Rivers threw the ball a ton in the red zone, and Keenan Allen actually had the second most red zone targets and the second most targets inside the 10-yard line. And he caught six touchdowns both years. So the targets being close to the end zone didn't matter for Keenan Allen. Six touchdowns in 2017 in 16 games. 2018, 16 games, six touchdowns.

Yeah, that's interesting. And then I guess it transitions into your Hunter Henry projection. So we'll go to that. That's the only tight end we're going to talk about today. But you project him for six touchdowns. You've talked about that. You've talked about how Henry's addition could affect the running backs and their receptions and obviously how it could affect Keenan Allen.

And I tried to be a little bit cautious with my Hunter Henry projection. I think he does have upside beyond this, but I've got him for 50 catches, 644 yards, and six touchdowns, which is basically a low end. Not low end, but mid-range number one tight end. What do you think, Dave? 50 catches, 644 yards, six touchdowns from Hunter Henry. That's not so good.

That's not somebody that people should be reaching for on drafts. No, that seems a little low. And I wonder if part of that projection is kind of rooted in what you remember from Hunter Henry in 2017, which is to say that there were several games where he was either barely targeted or not targeted at all. And Anthony Lynn responded to that at the time by saying, well, it's just the time by saying, well, it's just the way that those games went,

but boy, we really should have get Hunter Henry more involved. And then you, you just, you're reminded of what we just talked about three minutes ago with so many weapons in the offense. There's no reason to pummel Henry with targets unless the defense dictates it.

So I, I hate to say that he's not going to be a week-in and week-out fantasy starter. He will probably be drafted by somebody in every league to be that guy. If you draft him, hopefully you're getting him at a decent rate and you're not taking him too soon. I think when I took him in our most recent draft before that, I got him as the eighth tight end off the board. I'm perfectly fine with him there.

50, 6, 44, and 6 is pretty close to the eighth tight end usually. Well, but what round? Eight, 780? Yeah, that feels pretty reasonable. Because there obviously is upside. Oh, right. But it's basically also what Trey Burton gave you last year, just a few more yards.

His upside is? No, that projection. The projection. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I have him in late round six, but this is without any rookies, without free agency taking place. So he'll fall into round seven, I think. And I think that's, I guess that's okay.

That's going to be the spot where people start speculating a little bit more on tight end. What is a good yards per catch for a tight end? Because he's at 13 yards per catch. I feel like that's pretty good. That's very good. Awesome. That's what Travis Kelsey had exactly last year.

Yeah, that's in his career, 13. 13.3 as a rookie, 12.9 in 2017. All right, how about some news and notes from around the NFL, and then we'll finish it off with your emails. Kyler Murray is going to play football. The A's are not 100% convinced, but Kyler Murray's going to play football, it seems. Poor A's.

Yeah, it sucks. Detroit doesn't want to do hard knocks. They were like, I think Oakland's great for hard knocks. That was kind of funny. And they're also open to drafting a quarterback at number eight overall. And they also want to upgrade a tight end. They got a lot of things to do in Matt Patricia's last year before he and John Elway team up to be analysts on ESPN in 2020. Patricia will be right back with the Patriots.

Maybe. There's no way he's going to be an analyst. This is also Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's last year, just so you know. Oh, my gosh. They win another Super Bowl. They set the record. They break the Steelers win another Super Bowl. They set the record. They break the Steelers record and they head off into the sunset.

2020 is going to be a very different year. Houston released Demarius Thomas. Your thoughts? Probably the right thing for them to do. It's never good practice to overpay old injured wide receivers. Kiki Kuti or Will Fuller next year, who do you take first? Fuller.

Yeah, I think it's Fuller. I think there's a decent chance that Kuti's better in PPR. He might be better in PPR because he plays more games. I think that's the only way that he's better than Will Fuller next year. Mississippi State defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons reportedly tore his ACL. This is a guy who had top 20 pick potential, and that's a good defensive tackle off the board. Fascinating prospect.

Arizona says they will not select Kyler Murray with the number one pick. You buying it? Yes. I don't think you'd take a guy who's 5'9", number one overall. Okay. What about you? I tend to agree with you, but I do know that Cliff Kingsbury loves him. Everybody's seen the video of him saying,

if I had the chance to pick this guy at first, I would, whatever he said. Yep. Something like that, where he was talking up Kyler Murray. Yeah, I think just because Arizona is not going to take him number one overall doesn't mean he's not going number one overall too. Right, they trade. But I don't know. So who needs the number one pick?

The New York football giants. They're not going to take him because he's too short. Denver's not going to take him because he's too short Denver's not going to take him because he's too short Just like the track record Of both of those franchises Track record of John Elway Look at all the quarterbacks The shortest quarterback he's had is Keenum

And he's 6'1 Here's what happens Here's what happens Here's Adam's mock draft The Cardinals trade Josh Allen Cardinals trade Josh Allen. Cardinals got Josh Allen? Josh Rosen.

Okay. And the number one pick. Wow. To the Oakland Raiders. For both of the Raiders' first-round picks this year, they have two, right? They have three. For all three of their first-round picks.

And at four overall, they select Kyler Murray. Yes. That might be the worst prediction ever made. I mean, come on, let's break that down. The Raiders get their quarterback in Josh Rosen. Uh-huh. And they get the number one pick, which could be Nick Bosa. They've already agreed to pay Derek Carr

$20 million. Yeah. Oakland is committed to Derek Carr, I believe. They'll develop Kyler Murray. Oh my gosh. Sorry, they'll develop Josh Rosen. They're not getting Kyler Murray. The Cardinals are getting Kyler Murray at four. All right. I think if there's a team that's willing to take a big chance at quarterback

based on data metrics that say that you don't have to have height as part of the quarterback equation, and they move up in the draft to do it, it's Jacksonville. Jacksonville has the third pick, right? Oh, no, they have – oh, I'm sorry. I'm looking at a mock draft that has a trade. They have the seventh pick. Sixth, yes.

Sixth? I thought they were seventh. I could say... You know, everybody's pinning Nick Foles to Jacksonville, and maybe it'll end up that way for a year or two. But I could see them making... They could say, well, you know, stat X, Y, and Z says that Kyler Murray's going to be dominant,

and they want to sell tickets and they want a totally unique type of quarterback and playmaker and they go up and they get kyler murray yeah i think what'll be interesting is uh you know after the college football season ended it didn't seem like it was a great quarterback draft nobody really deserving of a top 10 pick necessarily and then once the evaluations come in and the combine comes in and everybody goes quarterback crazy, Murray, Haskins, Locke. I mean, they could all be top 15 picks.

Just these guys get pushed up so much. Jaguars have the seventh pick right now, right behind the Giants, who are the only team in the top six that have an obvious need for a quarterback um yeah because it's Arizona San Francisco Jets Raiders Bucks that's also a pretty unique thing none of those teams really needing a quarterback so expect a lot of trades a few more notes uh Ole Miss wide receiver DK Metcalf. Holy cow. Did you guys see the picture? He's the biggest.

He's got to be the most buff wide receiver in NFL history. More than David Boston. Yes, much more than David Boston. He makes David Boston look like David North Attleboro. I thought you were going to say he's going to make him look like David Richard. Oh, no, I didn't. I could have gone there. I went with a smaller Massachusetts city.

Oakland could still play in the Bay Area this year. The NFL is reportedly opening the season with Bears-Packers to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the league instead of a Patriots game. They won the Super Bowl, so that's different. Patriots are going to play the disrespect card, and then that means that they're going to play the underdog card, and then that means they're going to start chanting, we're still here, and, you know? Yeah. I guess we just keep underestimating New England.

And Thanksgiving games will be Miami at Dallas and Chicago at Detroit. Plus the third one, right? Yeah, I'm assuming. I went back and watched the Leon Lett highlight yesterday. It is so funny. The guy in the broadcast goes, Leon Lett? No!

It is so funny. It is the funniest play in football history. Alright, how about some emails? Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com First email, I don't even have Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. First email, I don't even have a name. Give me a name. Dolores.

From Dolores. Mulva. He says, hey, Navarro, Michael, Jerry, and Ronnie. Those are players who played for the 49ers and Raiders both. Did you cheat or did you know that? Well, they are, right? Yes. That's what I'm right.

Half PPR. Would you keep Mike Evans or Nick Chubb? I already have Zeke and Saquon. Evans. Chubb. From Julian. One quarterback league, startup dynasty draft. When should you take your first quarterback dynasty?

I'm probably still waiting. I think you can wait. I used to tighten up on that, though. In a dynasty league, you want to make sure that you've got a great quarterback for years to come. But there are a lot of great quarterbacks with lots of long potential. You could probably wait and get two of them. I might be tempted to take Mahomes at the end of the second. I would expect he's going to

go much earlier than that. Our next question is from Anan in the UK. Hey, Peter, Paul, and Steven and John. Peter, Paul, Steven, and John. I have a two-quarterback dynasty league. Peter, Paul, Stephen, and John. I have a two-quarterback dynasty league.

I have Bortles, Watson, Flacco, and Mullins. Would you recommend trying to trade draft picks? Yeah, he's got Watson and crap. Would you recommend trying to trade draft picks for a better quarterback? He won the championship, by the way. He won the championship with those quarterbacks? I guess Mullins came through for him better quarterback. He won the championship, by the way. He won the championship with those quarterbacks? I guess Mullins came through for him

toward the end of last season. Good for him. Yeah, of course. The alternative is to spend one of the draft picks that you were going to trade on one of the quarterbacks that are coming out this year. And it could work out where one of Murray, Haskins, Locke, Jones is there

when you're up in round two. Yeah, I wouldn't trade a first-round pick for a quarterback. What if it's the last pick in the first round, though? Because that's probably what he's got. That's true. That's true. It depends on the quarterback you're getting. Yeah, I think so.

This is the fun of Dynasty is that you get to line up all the quarterbacks that are available to you with the quarterbacks that you think will fall to you at the end of round one. I would probably just draft the quarterback. And, by the way, Peter, Paul, Stephen, and John are like saints or apostles. Something like that. This is from Steve. Where's Steve from? Brooklyn, New York.

Quick question about Philip Lindsay. My Dynasty running back room consists of Chubb, Lindsay, and Drake as my top three. But I've been offered the fifth pick of the first round for Lindsay straight up. So I'm guessing that's the rookie draft. I have the sixth pick

and the twelfth pick. So can I replace Lindsey at pick 105? Most years I would probably do that trade because I don't know about Lindsey's longevity, but I don't so far really love this class that much, so I don't think I would this year. And also Dave was wrong. He's from Korea.

Yeah, he's from Korea. Sorry. He says happy Lunar New Year from Korea. That's my bad. Thanks, Adam adam thanks for setting me up to fail ryan from central michigan says hey some combination of adam dave jamie and heath i am in a 10 team super flex dynasty league with 34 players 11 starters 11 bench and 12 practice squad players those are are drafted rookies. 12 guys on the practice squad? Wow. How much of my $100 fab should I spend to get Damian Williams?

I don't get this. I already have McCaffrey, Mixon, Carrion Johnson, and Marlon Mack. I don't think I'd spend more than 20%. Why isn't he owned? This is your fab for the whole year? And Damian Williams is somehow the agent? Yeah, why isn't he owned? This is your fab for the whole year and Damien Williams is somehow Yeah, why isn't he owned? I don't get it. This email was not sent in week 14

just so you know. I would spend more than 20% but probably not much more than 40%. Okay, this is from I'd go after it a little bit. Last one, Brian...

No, Willie from the home of Mark Twain. It's in Missouri. Maybe Hannibal? I'll look it up for you. Dear Brian, Matt, Eric, and Josh. I think I know that. What do you think it is?

Patriots assistants who became head coaches? Yeah, I think you're right. Also, it does look like Mark Twain's home is in Hannibal, Missouri. It's Florida, Missouri. Florida? Florida, Missouri. The Mark Twain Boyhood Home Museum is in Hannibal. Yeah, that's where the museum is.

That's not necessarily his boyhood home. He was born in Florida, Missouri. That is so confusing. That's where he was born. His home was Hannibal. Make up your mind, Twain. It's the birthplace of Mark Twain. He's in the home of.

That's true. Hemingway got it right. He's from, I think he's from Florida. Florida, Missouri or Florida, Florida? I think he's from Missouri, Florida. First offseason, this is Willie's question. First offseason in a 10-team dynasty league. We had the startup draft last summer.

I've got Dalvin Cook, Sonny Michelle, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Darius Geist, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Gus Edwards, and Jamal Williams. Jeez Louise. We play two running backs and three flexes. I'm fine at wide receiver. Michael Thomas, Kenny Galladay,ory davis calvin ridley sammy walkins courtland sudden and quarterback my initial thought was to trade two running backs and maybe a lower tier wide receiver or tight end for an elite running back what's a decent

package to put together for zeke or camara or a running back of that caliber would say aaron jones darius geis and calvin ridley be enticing no it's so difficult to do this in a 10-team league because everybody has a ton of really good players. Now, probably not as many as you. But this dude's got like a museum. He's got the Missouri, Kentucky, Florida museum of dynasty running backs. I think you may have to do something like Sonny Michel and Aaron Jones. It's going to have to be an overpay willy

sony michelle and aaron jones for name your running back you'll probably get someone get rejected but well who would you which running backs would you give up michelle and aaron jones for i really barclay zeke i'm gonna actually go a different direction. I think I would give up any two of your running backs for Zeke Elliott. Willie, the secret of getting ahead is getting started. Or Saquon Barkley or Todd Gurley, right? Definitely Saquon Barkley, too. Not Todd Gurley. I do. I don't know.

I'm so uncomfortable. You know what? I don't care if Antonio Brown goes to San Francisco because I look forward to months and months of Todd Gurley debates. We've got a lot to look forward to. Thank you, everybody, for listening. We'll have two more shows. Chris Hemingway is from Chicago? Come on, Dave.

How did you not? You're from Chicago. Oak Park, Illinois. Well. Where's his home? Do you guys know where Washington Irving is from? I know where this podcast is going. Sleepy Hollow.

Sleepy Hollow. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na.