Fantasy Football Today - 02/19: Year 2 RB Forecasts (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 19, 2019

Rookie RBs had a big Fantasy impact in 2018, so what will 2019 bring? We start with sophomore RBs we expect to take a step up (2:55) and those we expect to take a step back (7:45). Jamey weighs in on Nick Chubb and Dave on Phillip Lindsay, among others ... More on this group of RBs as we get into guys like Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel (14:30), Ronald Jones and Derrius Guice (17:35), Kalen Ballage and Jaylen Samuels (23:53) and more ... Who are the most talented QBs in the NFL (28:50)? Plus news and notes (36:30) including trade rumors and a Chris Godwin item ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, everybody. We welcome you back from a long weekend.

This is Fantasy Football Today. You know, those rookie running backs, they were really good last year. Saquon Barkley was the number one running back in PPR. He actually scored more fantasy points in PPR than Todd Gurley did in 2017. Sonny Michel was really good in stretches. Nick Chubb was awesome. Ronald Jones, never mind, forget about Ronald Jones. We're going to talk about him and the rest of the year two running backs today.

Jamie's back. Hey, Jamie. Hey, buddy. Actually, you know, I didn't give you the proper intro that you deserve. Today, for the first time in two weeks, ladies and gentlemen, he is Jamie Eisenberg. We say... Welcome back. Welcome back, Jamie.

Yeah, first time in two weeks that I've been working. First time in a month that I've actually been on a full show. Oh, wow. You cut me off for my Pro Bowl and Super Bowl appearances. I like the timely reference, Adam. And you'll cut me off, I'm sure, next week from the Combine also, right? Oh, what, you're not going to be here? You're going to the Combine?

Yes. That's fun. Have you been to the Combine before? No, it'll be first time. I would have gone last year, except I had a child. Dave, have you gone to the Combine? Never in my life. Have you guys been to Indianapolis before? Never in my

life. Yes, I've covered a Colts practice. Colts Bears joint practice. Well, they have this restaurant there. It's got a little bit of everything. It's got beef and

dessert. It's called Steak and Shake. I ate there. It's terrific. I've heard one of our coworkers had an interesting experience there that I cannot share. I was just kidding because Steak and Shake is everywhere. Yeah.

That's my inside Indianapolis advice. Okay. Give me a – Thank you. I'll be sure to attend. I love Steak and Shake. We are going to have a lot of great coverage coming from the Combine. Our entire staff of NFL writers will be there, our our draft guys will be there.

By the way, for those of you who are looking for some great NFL draft coverage, Ryan Wilson is a one of our NFL bloggers. He is taking the lead role in our draft coverage. And Ryan's doing a fantastic job. He was at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, and he will have every little tidbit you'll ever need about the NFL draft all on CBSSports.com. Excellent. We're going to be talking more and more about that starting with the combine. Okay, you're two running back who will take a step up.

Jamie, who's going to take a step up next year? He was one of my favorite guys going into the draft or coming out of the draft last year, going into the draft as well, but Kerryon Johnson. Maybe you heard me say I like him. I was impressed the way he was starting to pick things up before he suffered his knee injury,

and hopefully he will pick up that pace when he's back on the field, which all reports indicate that he should be fine. He scored at least 14 PPR points in four of his last five games, finally starting to get, I think, a hold of the offense and getting used the right way. But he was catching passes out of the backfield. He had at least three catches in three of his final four games. Two of those games, he had at least six catches. So I think he's going to be very, very successful as a full-time running back in Detroit. And that's the key is that he becomes a full-time running back.

And that was something that we were very worried about last year. And then when he got that opportunity, he did very well with it before he got hurt. Darryl Bevel's the new offensive coordinator there. You guys know Bevel's track record with running the football. He had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. Those guys were great. I think if Kerryon Johnson just plays exactly like he did

toward the end of last season, it's a no-brainer that he will be very productive, very good for fantasy. I've got him ranked ahead of Derek Henry, Leonard Fournette, Darius Geis, and so on and so forth. 17th among non-PPR running backs. Am I crazy for taking Kerryon Johnson ahead of Sonny Michel?

In PPR, no. In non-PPR, yes. But it's close. Close in non-PPR. I mean, we have to see Michel catch the ball. We have to see what the Patriots running back group looks like. It'll be at least White and Michel. I hope the Lions don't do something stupid

and add somebody else. Riddick should be out the door, yes. LeGarrette Blount's out the door. Don't go crazy, Detroit. Don't start drafting running backs in round two or something to have a split workload. Well, they're going to add someone.

You can't trust Gary on Johnson's situation. I would be more concerned about if they signed somebody like Mark Ingram. Yeah, let's let Kerryon Johnson spread his wings. He had three games with, I think, 15 or more carries, and he was awesome in all three of them. Had 87 or more yards in all three. Had a touchdown and one at 158 yards against Miami. All right, let's go to Dave's guy.

Dave, running back that's going to take a step up in year two. Ito Smith is going to be a top 100 fantasy pick this year. I believe that Tevin Coleman is going to move on from Atlanta. I don't think they want to pay him after they overpaid Devontae Freeman, and I think they're going to keep Devontae Freeman. And they'll go with Freeman and Smith as their one-two power couple at running back. Freeman could get hurt again, and that'll open the door for Ito to be in the old Tevin Coleman role where he's getting all the work, and I think he was pretty good with it.

For the better part, he was a part-time guy. I can't say he was good with a full-time role. He never really had it. Knows for the end zone, patient runner. I think the opportunity will be there. I've got him ranked 85th overall in non-PPR. That's interesting. Do you anticipate drafting Ido Smith? Same issue that we had with Tevin Coleman. It was tough to draft Tevin Coleman if you didn't have Devontae Freeman. You knew

if there was an injury to Freeman, there was tremendous upside. And he ended up with over 1,000, about 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns this year. But you knew if Devontae Freeman didn't get hurt, you were probably going to have a guy that you would rather have on your bench. So I assume Ido Smith, he certainly will go later than Tevin Coleman was going. Would you only want to pair the two, or would you take them independently, Freeman and Ito Smith in this scenario? I don't mind taking Ito independently. Freeman, if I'm getting Freeman, I'm hopefully getting him in round five.

I don't know if I'm going to get him in round five. If I do, then I'm going to try and get Ito right around the curve in 7-8, somewhere in there. Freeman in round five, I was thinking more he'd be like around three late three early four pick maybe he moves up that where do you go where do you have freeman i haven't done my rankings yet but um i would imagine freeman is going to go around four okay maybe he will fall around five you never know i think a lot of people are going to be scared off of freeman yeah but if he's healthy you're going to get a great value pick and i think you look at dirt

cutter's history he's going to probably lean on one guy more so than Sarkeesian did. So we'll see how, you know, Edo Smith does independently of an injury. All right, let's go to your two running back who will take a step back. Dave, let's start with you. Who's your guy who's taking a step back as a sophomore? I'm a little nervous about Phillip Lindsey after a 10-touchdown season with over five yards per carry in an offense that will now be piloted by Joe Flacco. I'm not going to guarantee that he's going to split work with Royce Freeman again, but I would say odds are that he won't be in every down back. And I'm kind of spooked by the entire Broncos offense at this point. The line has a lot

of questions the receiving core is questions and I'm just worried that it could be too many factors for Lindsay to overcome it's kind of amazing that he had the season that he did Philip Lindsay was 13th in PPR 11th and non-PPR and a stat that really jumped out at me, Denver was third in the NFL in yards per carry behind Carolina and Green Bay. Really surprising. They're often stunk. So it does feel a little bit difficult to believe they're going to run the ball that effectively next year,

but maybe it's just a testament to how good Phillip Lindsay is. 5.4 yards per carry. I think Dave mentioned that. He had the 17th most carries in the NFL. He missed one game, hurt his wrist in Week 16. And Royce Freeman is still there, and he's another year two running back we'll talk about. Jamie, do you also think Philip Lindsay takes a step back? Yeah, slightly.

I mean, I think, you know, you have a total change. New offensive coordinator, new head coach. The one thing that Philip told me he was excited about with the coaching change was that they're keeping his running backs coach or keeping the Broncos running backs coach. So he thinks that continuity will help that group. But he himself said for their team to be better, he would like to see more out of Royce Freeman.

You know, he said if Devontae Booker is there, more out of Booker. You know, just getting more production. So probably take the load off of him. He's also coming off a pretty significant injury. His wrist is still in a cast. Who knows if he's going to be ready for OTAs. That's something that could be a problem for him. The flexor injury is not exactly an easy recovery, as he's proving right now.

So he hasn't been able to do any of the rehab stuff. I do think, though, his situation is fascinating because he is, I got the chance to speak to him essentially twice, once at the Pro Bowl, once at the Super Bowl. He was on Radio Row. And he just comes across as, you know, you hear these stories all the time about guys that are really self-motivated and trying to prove themselves he still lives with his parents he's an nfl player that still lives with his parents he has no money you know i mean by comparison to these guys because he's an undrafted free agent he's lucky enough to have played his high school ball and his college ball and in denver and now is obviously his nfl career so he's looking to you know establish himself as

as a guy in this league, and I think he proved himself pretty successful in his rookie campaign. He said his one goal was to be able to play on special teams, and clearly he got an opportunity to show he can play in this game, play in this league, and is proving himself. So I like the player. I just think the scenario is going to bring him down a little bit. We'd like to see him catch the ball more too. Seems like he'd be good in that role. He only had three

catches, Philip Lindsay. I'm trying to think, who are the best undrafted free agent running backs? In recent history, Alfred Morris was one, right? Or was he a seven-round pick? No, he was a six-round pick. Yeah, I'm trying to think. And then he had a great rookie year and just got kind of worse every year.

But Lindsay really looks good. I mean, he really looked a part. And he wasn't invited to the combine, which is just dumb. Makes the combine look kind of, the process look silly. So, Jamie, who's your guy that's going to take a step back? I don't believe Preece Holmes was drafted, by the way. Like, I don't know why that's the first name that comes to mind for great undrafted running backs, but there's one.

All right, here we go. I'm going to look this up. The 25 best undrafted running backs, but there's one. All right, here we go. I'm going to look this up. The 25 best undrafted players in NFL history, according to Fox Sports, Cameron DeSilva, from August 2017. So I will take a look at this. Jamie, tell me the running back who's going to take a step back next year. I mean, it's clearly contingent on whatever the suspension Kareem Hunt gets, but Nick Chubb is in trouble if it's not 12 games for Kareem Hunt.

If we're talking six games or fewer, then Nick Chubb's in trouble. You don't add the NFL's leading rusher from two years ago, and he doesn't see the field, especially when the GM's the guy who drafted him. I hope it's a, from Nick Chubb's standpoint, for a dynasty owner that have Nick Chubb, that it's a 12-plus game suspension. But if it's single digits and low single digits, then it's going to be a messy situation for Nick Chubb

to be a great fantasy option. I think Hunt's going to have to earn every step of it, and I think that there's a better chance that Hunt takes work away from Duke Johnson than he does Nick Chubb. He's going to take away from both of them. I mean, again, he'd be the best talent in that backfield. That's an interesting debate. Yeah, I don't know if I'd agree with that.

Well, he's a more successful complete running back. So he proved that his rookie season compared to Chubb's rookie season. So I think you look at what Kareem Hunt's skill set would be. If, in fact, he's going to be active for 10-plus games, then it's going to be tough for Nick Chubb to build off of what he did as a rookie. Don't you think that a little bit of the success for Hunt was because of the offense that he played in?

Sure, you could say the same thing for Chubb. I mean, he played a good offense, too. Yeah, but it wasn't as good. Well, sure. I mean, that's the difference between a guy running for 1,300 yards and a guy running for 900 yards. Like, sure. Damian Williams didn't just step in. And the guy running for 900 yards. Like, Duke Johnson was in this offense for several years.

He had one good season. And Chubb gets his opportunity. And Hyde got off to a good start. But Duke Johnson's a different player. But Carlos Hyde's a good example. Carlos Hyde, in my opinion, was not nearly as good as Nick Chubb. Well, Chubb's better than Carlos Hyde. Yeah, yeah. Right.

So it's not, you know. Okay, there are two undrafted free agent running backs on this top 25 list. Priest Holmes. Go ahead. I never heard of Ryan Foster. Is that how you pronounce it? Arian Foster.

Arian Foster. They have Priest Holmes ahead, but yeah. What else? How could we forget about Danny Woodhead? Chicago's very own Pierre Thomas. LeGarrette Blunt. All right. LeGarrette Blunt was undrafted?

Yeah, remember the punch? I didn't realize that he was undrafted. Okay, number one on the list is Warren Moon, by the way. The best undrafted free agent ever. Just ahead of Kurt Warner. All right, good list. Thank you, Fox Sports. All right, good list. Thank you, Fox Sports. All right, so look,

those are Kerryon Johnson, Ido Smith, Nick Chubb, and Phillip Lindsay. They are just four of a big group of running backs. I'm going to go through the rest of them, and you guys can tell me

quickly or not quickly, whatever you deem appropriate, how you think they're going to do, better or worse next year. Saquon Barkley, number three, I believe, in non-PPR, number one in PPR last year. Better or worse next year? Saquon Barkley, number three, I believe, in non-PPR, number one in PPR last year.

Better or worse in 2019? Same. He's going to be awesome. He is worth the number one overall pick in fantasy. Here's a guy I really want to take some shots on. Rashad Penny. Thoughts? Yeah, so we're doing these videos.

You can find them on CBS Sports HQ. Pete Prisco and I are breaking down every NFL team and their free agent needs. And then a fantasy storyline. That's one we talked about yesterday. Pete's opinion. Drink, by the way. Pete's opinion is that they're going to give Rashad Penny a lot more work. And he makes sense in how he is explaining it that he didn't know the playbook as a rookie,

and he's going to have a lot more time now to clearly grasp things. So it's going to just make things a little bit more problematic for our perspectives because Chris Carson was so good to close the season. And you think that he's going to get every opportunity to be the guy to open the season. But if Penny does understand things more and he's on the field, I think it's a good call out of him. I think he's in that same kind of category as Ido Smith. You know, somebody that you're going to take with the chance of becoming something potentially great.

And if, in fact, that happens, then you have a star. Yeah. Did you guys feel when you were watching Rashad Penny just a few plays, you're like, whoa. But this guy is a highlight, right? He's a different runner than Chris Carson by far. And he only had two games with double digits and carries. That's going to change. He's got to stay healthy too.

Yeah. Check this stat out. The Seahawks were second in the NFL in rush attempts behind the Ravens. I'm going to assume they were first before the Lamar Jackson switch. But the Ravens averaged 34.2 rush attempts per game with their quarterback getting a ton of them. The Seahawks averaged 33.4 rush attempts per game. The Patriots were third, 29.9.

I mean, that is a huge drop from two to three in rush attempts per game. They ran the ball a ton. Dave, a quick thought on Penny? Penny, for your thoughts? Damn it! I think if the Seahawks had their way, they'd use both Carson and Penny, and whoever had the hotter hand is who would get more carries on a week-to-week basis. You could almost make the same case for Penny as you could for Ido Smith,

that it's better to just wait to get him in the round 7-8 range than it would be to take the presumed starter to begin the year. Carson will be more expensive than Devontae Freeman on draft day. He'll get picked ahead of Freeman. We have Sonny Michel, our last round one running back from 2018's draft. Sonny Michel, better or worse? Better. I think he'll be more involved in the passing game. Agreed.

He was 25th in non-PPR, 33rd in PPR, with the 14th most carries in the NFL, but only seven catches. And he missed some time with the knee problems. Yes, he did. And you also have an aging quarterback that's going to run the ball a little bit more. And I think it's going to be interesting to see what happens with Gronk if he's not there and they don't upgrade the receiving core. Then it's going to be, I think, early Tom Brady career around him.

You know, just play defense, run the ball, and not necessarily ask Brady to have to do everything. Yeah. Like I said, they did run the ball third most in the NFL. Okay, round two running backs. We talked about two of these guys, Chubb and Kerryon Johnson. The other two who were drafted in round two last year, this is obviously the NFL draft, Ronald Jones and Darius Geis.

Darius Geis was almost as productive as Ronald Jones, and he missed the entire season. How hopeful are you for these two? I'm hopeful for Geis. I like the fact that he's running now and seems to be on track to getting back on the field. We will see if Adrian Peterson remains a teammate of his in 2019 if he is that would be a problem if he's not and that's great news for darius geis who has

potential to be the 65 playing time running back for a bad redskins team they got to figure out the quarterback situation to determine how good Geist can potentially be. It's not going to be good. Well, I mean, it doesn't necessarily have to be awful, though. If they get a competent veteran, like a Tyrod Taylor maybe, Tannehill, Bridgewater, those are the guys you're looking at. And I think at least it's not going to be – like Kyler Murray is going to be on their draft board unless they really move up and get Haskins. That's, I think, going to determine the ceiling for Geis. But I think you're getting him as a low-end number two flex type of running back,

and there's a lot to like about his upside. Ronald Jones has just got way too much to prove. Bruce Arians obviously gets a lot of numbers out of his, his, his rushers. Uh, I don't know if he's going to be the guy though, cause that's not going to be somebody that he's going to be fond of.

He is nothing like the type of running back that Arians goes for. Arians likes thicker built guys, certainly versatile guys. Jones is still a work in progress as a pass catcher. He really, uh, he flamed out way too soon. Yeah, but I mean they're –

And this is a completely different coaching staff, so they're not going to have any reason to justify the Ronald Jones pick. But it's the same GM, and he took him in the second round. He also took a kicker. Yeah, right, right, right. How many years did they give him? At this point, the GM should just be happy that he's got the gig. Oh, yeah, for sure.

And when it comes to picking players in the draft, here's his move. What do you want to do, Bruce? They should just stop. They should just cancel the second round for Tampa Bay. Yeah, they only gave Aguayo one year. I just was trying to remember what his name was. Jeremy McNichols in the fifth round of the 2017 draft, and I believe they cut him in training camp.

So they're not necessarily tied to some of their draft picks. All right, round three, only one running back went in round three. I'm going to double check to make sure that's right. It was Royce Freeman. And Freeman averaged four yards per carry at 130 yards, 521 rushing – 130 carries, sorry, 521 rushing yards and five touchdowns. So sometimes week 17 statistics can sort of get away from me because we don't do the recap show.

He had eight catches in week 17 out of 14 for the season. That's amazing. Yeah. That was without Lindsey. Did Lindsey have a game with even – how many games did he have with four or more catches? Because that's wild. I think you'd be surprised.

I think he probably had – Booker was a leading receiver out of the backfield, right? Booker had five catches in Week 17. But Lindsey had – but Freeman had eight, which was weird. What kind of role do you think Freeman has? And also, I can get into it a little bit if you care. I broke down Lindsey versus Freeman in the red zone, inside the 10, and inside the 5 in the final, I think, seven games of the season after Freeman returned from injury. But yeah, what kind of role do you think Royce Freeman has?

Is he somebody worth drafting? Oh, 100%. Well, so, I mean, I get it that someone needs to draft him i don't really want it to be me you know why you wouldn't do it with a mid to late round pick no because i was never the guy who took tevin coleman because i i really think that in this scenario with um in this scenario with royce freeman you need a phil need a Phillip Lindsey injury for him to be worth starting. Otherwise, you're going to have a guy who at the end of the year accumulates some fantasy points, finishes, probably is a top 24 running back. But when you say not drafting, you wouldn't take him in double-digit rounds?

I guess. You wouldn't take him after 100th overall? Well, yeah. You would. Okay, maybe. Because trust me, the running backs that are left at that point aren't going to be very pretty. And at least here's one who's a second-year player who showed some flashes and has some potential. When I say I don't want to draft him, I mean I anticipate his value will be too high for me because I just think Lindsey's so much better.

Whereas I compare that to Rashad Penny, and I like his chances of overtaking the starter much more. Penny will go sooner. I think you're looking at it maybe from the wrong perspective, or at least the perspective of not drafting him where you expect his ADP to be. If his ADP is in the range, I guess, of what you're saying, then sure, you'll pass on him. But I don't think it's going to be that high. What do you think it'll be?

I think it'll be round 10 to 12. I think it'll be before then. What do you... Late round 9, round 10. So this is Royce Freeman we're talking about. Is that when you would take him? And what do you think his role will be? I've got him at 103rd overall.

Well, I'm thinking more PPR. I don't think people are looking at him in PPR as somebody that's going to have the chance to help you barring an injury. In non-PPR, it's different because the touchdowns will help him. He's the only round three running back taken last year.

If you are interested in the red zone data, after Freeman missed two games, November 18th, he came back. At that point, Philip Lindsay had 13 red zone carries. Royce Freeman had eight. Philip Lindsay had seven carries inside the 10. Royce Freeman had three. Philip Lindsay had three carries inside the five. Royce Freeman had two. So that was pretty even. I guess my impression was that after he got hurt and Lindsey showed what he could do, that it was basically Lindsey's job in all areas of the field.

And not 100% true. All right, round four running backs from 2018's draft. Naeem Hines, the arrested Mark Walton, Ido Smith, Kalen Balazs, Chase Edmonds. Go ahead, Jamie. Make your comment about Mark Walton, where he went to school. He did. He did go to Miami. That's true.

So do these guys get drafted? Hines, Walton, Ito, Balazs, and Edmonds? Balazs is going to be popular. If he's the guy. Well, Io, Balazs, and Edmonds. Balazs is going to be popular. If he's the guy. Well, I mean, I think you look at it, if they don't add anybody, and you're just talking about Kenyon Drake and Kalen Balazs as the top two guys, then yes, he's going to be popular. Because his skill set can be fantastic if he gets the workload.

I like him. Me too. Yeah, let him go. Let him fly. All right, that's round four. Round five, Jalen Samuels and Jordan Wilkins. Jalen Samuels and Jordan Wilkins. Well, Wilkins was a flop.

He didn't take advantage of the opportunity when Marlon Mack was hurt. You're talking maybe last round pick if he comes in as the number two guy behind Mack. And that's a big if. Indianapolis has a lot of money to spend. They could easily sign one of these free agent running backs. Yeah, I would hope they don't.

Put everybody else on ice. Let Marlon Mack do what he did last year because he was great. Samuel is interesting just with the standpoint of if he's second on the depth chart. James Conner showed last year he couldn't hold up for 16 games. And so if, in fact, Samuels, who is getting a former member of his coaching staff at NC State, now on the Steelers coaching staff, that will help things for him. I think he's somebody you're going to handcuff to Conner. He's going to be the next Steelers backup running back that everybody's

going to fall for. By the way, Jordan Wilkins averaged 5.6 yards per carry. A lot of that was benefited by some long runs. Yeah, it was. YPC for life, and I don't care. I'm not entirely YPC for life. Running backs went around six last year.

John Kelly to the Rams, Boston Scott to New Orleans, Trenton Cannon to the Jets. And then around seven, David Williams to Denver, Bo Scarborough to Dallas, Nick Baudin to Detroit, and Justin Jackson, the only one that actually did anything, to the Chargers. It's funny. Scott and Kelly were very popular in the preseason.

Kelly with the thought of if something happens to Todd Gurley, then he could be the guy. And Boston Scott was one of the names that was talked about as the potential Mark Ingram replacement. And neither of them did anything. Boston Scott ended up on a different team. So did David Williams. So did Bo Scarborough.

Yeah, Bo Scarborough, right. Yeah, Justin Jackson was, oh, I remember when he scored that touchdown in, what was it, Week 15? It was the most exciting fantasy moment of my life. It was the Thursday night game. It was against the Chiefs. He was terrible. And then he saved it all in the fourth quarter. And ended up with a pretty big game. And then, of course, there was Phillip Lindsay as an undrafted free agent.

All right Alright good job There is one more Undrafted rookie free agent You should keep an eye on next year Who we got? Chris Warren Go on For the Raiders

They don't have anybody really of significance at all in their backfield right now And he was great in the preseason They redshirted him basically I would just keep an eye on him. If he's available and you can make a transaction in your dynasty league, go pick him up. All right, we got some emails. Fantasy Baseball.

Nope. Nope, wrong. Fantasy Football at CBSi.com, although you should be listening to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. We're going to have to react to the Manny Machado news tomorrow. Fantasy Football at CBSi.com. You'd be surprised, man. His OPS away from home

throughout his career, not good. This is a really potentially big deal. It would have been much better if he ended up with the White Sox. Yes. Are you going to play him at short or third? I think third. But he'll

be eligible in short. All righty. Anyway, we'll read some emails, do some news and notes right after this. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play.

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Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Here's our email of the day. It is from Trevor from the fifth most unaffordable city to live in In the world Sleepy Hollow, New York Yeah, that's what I was going to say

Sleepy Hollow Dear Dan, Brett, Payton, and Tom Quarterbacks Alright, he wants us to settle some arguments That he's having with his buddies Argument number one One person feels that quarterbacks need to sit out at least their first year to understand the game and be better prepared.

They feel that historically quarterbacks that sit at least one season, Patrick Holmes, Brad Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, have a higher chance of becoming a superstar and a franchise quarterback. The other person believes it's all about the coaches and sitting or not playing plays no factor. The coaches either put them in a position to win or not. So let's start with that argument. What do you guys think? So it has absolutely nothing to do with

the makeup of the player himself. It's either the coaches or it's the waiting that determines whether or not a quarterback... I mean, I'm sure there's a maturity factor too, so age. Yes.

I guess you could throw Kurt Warner in there, too, right? In terms of successful guys that didn't play right away. Dante Culpepper didn't play right away. I mean, Peyton Manning was pretty good, right? Peyton Manning was terrible his rookie year. Doesn't matter, though. He played right away. Exactly, yeah, played right away.

I don't think there's a right or wrong to this. Marino, Elway, those guys played right away? I used to argue with Prisco about it. Oh, hold on. I got my water. I used to argue with Pete Prisco about it. I will drink in a second. Because he was like, let him play.

Let the kid play. Let the kid play. You know, it doesn't always work like that. Sometimes it's better not to. We had this conversation, again, on these videos that we're doing about Josh Rosen, who got destroyed, essentially. He got beat up behind a bad offensive line with lack of weapons and poor coaching and all those things that could destroy a young guy. And so we'll see how he does bouncing back if, in fact, he stays

in Arizona with the thought of maybe them moving on from him and drafting Kyler Murray or Haskins or whoever. I think that those are the interesting case studies. Look at Jared Goff. He had a terrible scenario his rookie season. He only played half the year. And then he came back as a sophomore with better coaching, better talent. Better line. He's been great.

And so it's probably no rhyme or reason to it. I wish we could settle the argument for you. But there's examples on both sides of going either way and how these things tend to work out. I think if a quarterback plays too soon and isn't mentally stable or mentally prepared, he'll be ruined for his entire career. Right.

There's more downside probably to playing a guy early. Well, again, you look at recent examples, Goff being one. We'll see how rosen does i think josh allen's a good example too you know he was miserable to start the season and then he had the injury and came back and he was a star donald trubisky was bad his rookie year right and that one you can put on the coaches right yeah in fact you might say that he was he was better this year because of the coaches. Oh, of course. Meaning that I don't know if he's as good as we think he is because of the play calling that he's got. But again, more talent.

They added weapons. All right, the second argument, in regards to just arm talent alone, not stats, not situation, not results, arm talent alone, who are the top five quarterbacks of 2018 um i think that just means like who are the top five quarterbacks you know today one person thinks it's aaron rogers matthew stafford and carson wentz for top three not my homes yeah i think is that my homes is obviously the number one right yeah he's clearly number one on this list. I had the chance to speak to both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey. I'm doing a story on the Holmes, I think for our magazine,

but at some point it will be on the site as well. And I spoke to a bunch of defensive backs at the Pro Bowl, and then Kelsey and Tyreek Hill. And we had a panel discussion with them and just asking them, what's it like when the ball comes out from all these different angles? And Travis Kelsey was just like, you never know where it's coming. It could be lefty, it could be sidearm, it could be underneath. He's so unique in how he gets the job done.

I have a good Travis Kelsey story about the offense, comparing it to Alex Smith. You want me to tell it? Oh, you want to wait for. You want me to tell it? Oh, you want to wait for Thursday? I'll wait for Thursday. All right. Okay, cool. He had one of the best analogies I've ever heard.

Oh, that'll be fun. All right, so Mahomes is clearly number one in terms of arm talent. I don't know what constitutes arm talent. It can't just be arm strength, right? Because, like, Breeze and Brady. No, accuracy's got to be in it. Yeah, Breeze and Brady are so accurate. Breeze is amazing.

The way he puts the right amount of touch seems like on every pass. Right. Now his arm strength might be declining a little bit. No, it's declining. But he completed 74% of his passes this past year. Yeah, I think you've got to put him up there. Now, interestingly enough, you probably wouldn't put Kirk Cousins

on this list, right? Like, not even close. I don't know. He seems like he's got a nice little arm. Top five, though? No way. I would not. He is second in completion percentage at 70%.

But, of course, the argument for that is that a lot of his passes were short little darts to Adam Thielen. Yeah, yeah. Okay, Aaron Rodgers goes on there. Even though his completion percentage, I. Okay, Aaron Rodgers goes on there, even though his completion percentage, I feel like it wasn't so great. It was worse than Nick Mullins. Carson Wentz does have a great arm.

That guy's got arm talent. But top five, I'm not sure. No. Can you put Andrew Luck on this list? Yes. For top five? Yes. Well, see, you normally would, but I think if you

just look at what he did in 2018 there was probably a long enough time where he still wasn't throwing the ball downfield but yeah he's he's by the end of the season though he was back to being maybe not the same arm strength but back to the same okay so mahomes rogers breeze luck portals Rogers, Breeze, Luck. Bortles. And Bortles. I think Philip Rivers had an amazing season. But he's got such a bad arm. No, he's just got a bad technique. He has a bad delivery. It works for him.

I don't know if he's talking. I love this argument. This is a fun one. Roethlisberger and Ryan are interesting. I think Ryan you can make an argument for. I think if it's just for 2018, Ryan belongs. I feel like I'm missing someone big. Eli?

What about Goff? Eli? Beckham? Goff kind of slipped a little bit toward the end of the season. But his arm talent didn't get worse. Could he fall into the same category as Trubisky where his play caller helped push

him along? Yeah. For sure. Alright, thank you. Great email. And he says, P.S. I love the Vampire League idea. I'm hoping to do a few of those leagues next year. I was thinking about that. I think you'd want to be the Vampire League. I 100% want to. I will only do it if I'm the Vampire. Yeah. I'm into it. I only do it if to be the vampire. I 100% will. I will only do it if I'm the vampire.

Yeah, I'm into it. Wah! I only do it if it gets my way. Wah! That's right. Watch out. I'm a vampire. Dangerous man.

News and notes. Sucks the life out of every show. Rob Gronkowski has been a regular at Gillette Stadium, according to ESPN's Mike Rice. Mike Reese. Damn it! Screwed up every time. He's getting treatment. I don't think that is anything you need to read into about what his future holds.

Any inkling? You were around him at the Super Bowl. No. I mean, I don't think he's indicated yet what he's going to do. I don't know if he's indicated it personally to his or privately to his teammates, but I would get the sense that he's going to retire. I'm also doing this story on tight ends, so talking to George Kittle and Greg Olson and Kelsey and these guys, they would like to see him come back and play because of what he's meant to that position.

But you've got to hope that the fact that he felt, and I guess his teammates publicly said it, that he felt rejuvenated about the postseason run, maybe that gets him to come back for one more season. I have a challenge for you, Jamie. Yes, sir. Break the Gronkowski news. That's it?

Yeah, that's it. Yeah, big career challenge for you. All right, the Patriots pursued Odell Beckham Jr. before acquiring Josh Gordon. The 49ers have been very interested in acquiring Beckham, according to Pro Football Talk, and, of course, Jay Glazer made a bold prediction that Beckham would get traded this offseason.

As a Giants fan, do you want to see him traded? No. No. What if it was two firsts, one of them being a top ten pick? Yes. Yes. You would do it for that? Yeah, I'd say so.

I'm ready for the Evan Ingram era. The Redskins were also interested in Joe Flacco before the Broncos acquired him. Oh, darn. They missed out. Yeah. The Jaguars picked up Calais Campbell's option. He was the number seven defensive lineman in our IDP league. I'm sure all IDP leagues have different scoring,

but Calais Campbell has been awesome. He's also one of the nicest human beings you could ever come across. I had a chance to. My kids were on the practice field at the Pro Bowl, and Calais Campbell was so nice to my oldest son, my six-year-old, Ronan. Oh, cool. Don't forget where he went to school. That's right.

He was the only football player I ever hung out with at Miami. And he was like... Oh, what did that look like? Did he go in the forerunner? No, he did not. He probably tipped over the forerunner. He's huge. He was so nice, though.

He was such a normal dude. Yes. Arizona signed Charles Clay to a one-year $3.25 million deal. Well, now Josh Rosen's safe. And their offensive line coach, Sean Kugler, Kugler, Kugel, says that they will run the ball a lot this year. I love Kugel. Yeah.

And Patrick Peterson will shadow wide receivers. Good. What an amazing idea. And Chris Godwin could be Tampa Bay's slot receiver. Adam Humphreys is gone. Good. That's good? We want him in the slot?

Oh, yes. Okay, good. Does that open up a spot outside then for Tampa Bay? They keep Deshaun Jackson, which they would like to do now apparently. Oklahoma wide receiver Marquise Brown had Lisfranc surgery, so he's going to miss his pro day. He's going to miss the combine. He is a very good wide receiver Marquise Brown Had Lisfranc surgery so he's going to miss his Pro day he's going to miss the combine He is a very good wide receiver prospect

We'll see where he gets drafted now He's a very fast wide receiver prospect And I hope everybody saw San Diego Fleet quarterback Phillip Nelson With his no look Backwards pass to Gavin Escobar In the AAF

Do you see there was something going around? I think it was a high school game that they actually did as a play. No. Yeah, it was a fake field goal. Oh, and they threw it. The kid threw it over his head. Same exact thing. But it was by design.

It wasn't like he was wrapped up. They've done that in college. I've seen that in college. Because it came in this very controversial, right? You snapped the ball. Maybe it was college. I don't that in college because it came in this very controversial, right? You snapped the ball. Maybe it was college. I don't know. I didn't pay attention to what the tweet was.

You snapped the ball to the holder on the field goal. The kicker then runs like behind the holder, and the holder throws it over his head to the kicker, hits him in stride. Yep. But it was controversial. No, no, no. This was the exact same thing in terms of the –

Quarterbacks running down. The holder was – turned his back to the line of scrimmage and threw it over everybody to somebody in the end zone. Oh, well, that's so strange. But you know what the controversy is with the college play that I was referencing? Yeah. His knee's on the ground. And in college, when your knee's on the ground, you're down,

and the holder starts to play. So that's an exception to the rule. He's allowed to get up. Would that be funny if, like, every field goal was just down immediately and a miss because the holder's knee was on the ground? Okay, anyway, last note. Didn't put this in the show notes, but I'm going to tell you now. I saw an advertisement for a snack yesterday on tv a new and improved butterfinger

and it was the ad was basically acknowledging how crappy butterfinger is and it's like hey we're better now so are you going to try one i mean i think it's a result of your campaign probably probably i mean that's why this diehard stuff got so mainstream. Do you know that Butterfinger came to us with an offer and then they listened to our show and they said no? $5 million podcast sponsorship. Do you think you'd be fired over that?

100%. Jamie, you're hosting the podcast permanently. Why? Well, Butterfinger's a sponsor. Oh, I get it. Yeah. Nobody better lay a finger on my job security. And I am willing to lose another bet and try the new Butterfinger.

All right. Let's finish out with some emails here. Some keeper questions. This is from Alex. We can keep up to four players. They cannot be drafted in rounds one through three, and they can be kept for two additional years. So pick up to four of these guys. It's PPR, and it's a three-receiver league.

Damian Williams in the 14th round for two years. Hunter Henry in the 15th round for two years. Nick Chubb in the 10th for two years. Darius Geis in the 8th for two years. Adam Thielen in the 10th for two years, Darius Geis in the 8th for two years, Adam Thielen in the 7th for one year, and Sonny Michel in the 6th for two years. Just four of those? Up to four.

Up to four. Chubb's a must. Michel's a must. I don't know if Henry's a must when you've got these other guys. And that value, if he's a breakout tight end, 100%. Look at Damian Williams. If he's the lead back in Kansas 100%. Look at Damian Williams. If he's the lead back in Kansas City.

He's not going to be that for two years. Oh, why? I'll take it for one. I would take Williams over Michel. Thielen is a must. I know it's only one year, but seventh round. Thielen, Henry, and Williams were the three that jumped out to me first, and then I'd say Chubbs was the fourth guy. Chubbs, Michel, Thielen, and currently Damian Williams.

Yeah, I'll go Williams, Henry, Chubbs, and Thielen and currently Damian Williams. Yeah, I'll go Williams, Henry, Chubb, and Thielen. Okay, so Dave is taking a 6th round Michelle over a 14th or 15th round Hunter Henry. That's the only difference. The other three are going to be Chubb, Thielen, and you said Damian Williams, Dave? Yeah. Okay, so that's the three that they have in common.

Josh Warren is in a 10-team keeper league. Everyone keeps three players. Half PPR. Wide receiver heavy league with one running back, three wide receivers, and a flex, which can be a running back, receiver, or tight end. So again, it's 10 teams, and it's three keepers, half PPR. I'm already keeping Melvin Gordon, A.J. Green, and T.Y. Hilton. Should I trade Melvin Gordon and the 46th overall pick

for Juju Smith-Schuster and the second overall pick? David Johnson, Philip Lindsay, they could be available. Dalvin Cook. Oh, my God. Yes, you're doing this. 100%. Yes, Josh. Easy trade.

Who would you rather have straight up in a keeper league right now, Melvin Gordon or Juju? Standard or PPR? Or non-PPR? Half PPR in this case. I'll take Gordon. Huh? It's half, you said? To me, it doesn't matter, but this is a half-point PPR league. So, you're essentially trading Gordon and...

Your late round four pick. Yeah, but there's keepers involved, so it's not even that. It's basically like an eighth round pick. So, yeah, there's much better value with the Juju set of things. This is from Cody. Where's Cody from? Wait a minute. You asked if it's Gordon or Juju.

Which one would I rather have? Yes. Obviously, in the trade, I want the second overall pick. Yeah, no, I was asking a separate question. Right. Who's more, yeah. Do the trade. Give up Melvin Gordon. But I wanted to know who you value more, just straight melvin gordon or juju smith schuster in a in a keeper

redraft situation where it's just a one season thing i'd rather have gordon and dynasty league i'd rather have juju okay and where's cody from dave columbus ohio i think he's probably from canada because he says dear ricky julian, Randy, and Mr. Leahy. And I think those are the Trailer Park boys, and I think they're from Canada. Yeah, they are. 12-team keeper league. You can keep up to four players.

We do an auction draft. So in order to keep a player, you have to pay five more dollars than you drafted him for the previous year or five more FAB dollars than you spent on him in free year or five more fab dollars than you spent on him in free agency. So we have a $200 budget. I'm keeping Mahomes, Aaron Jones, and Zach Ertz for a combined $27. It's terrific.

One more spot. Let's see. This league has two running backs, two receivers. Okay, normal. Non-PPR, pick one. $45 Devontae Adams. Joe Mixon for $39. Kareem Hunt for $11. Stefan Diggs for $34.

Mike Evans for $36. What's the budget? $100 or $200? $200. $200. Which makes it far more palatable for Devontae. The thing is that Mixon is a pretty good value too, but you've already got Jones. Mahomes and Ertz are on your team.

I just feel like you'll be a little more well-rounded if you keep Devontae Adams. And you said you're keeping all those three guys for $27, right? Yes. So then if your fourth guy puts you at, if it's Adams, at 7272,000, is that right? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

No, no. 60. Oh, yeah, yeah, $72,000, yeah. So that leaves you $138 left for the rest of your team? Mm-hmm. Whatever you said, sure, I agree. $128 for the rest of your team. Who sends one email to the Seabist Sports fan? I think you can get away with Adams.

If you want to save a few bucks, depending on what you want to get, Evans or Diggs aren't bad. But who do you take first in a draft, especially in non-PPR, Mixon or Adams? Adams. Adams. You do? Okay. All right, guys. I talked to Adams about being the number one fantasy receiver.

He's my number one fantasy receiver, and he was, like, awesome. He was really excited about it. It was funny. I'm almost positive he was number one going into Week 17, which he missed. He was. Yeah. So, cool. All right, guys.

Thank you very much. That's Jamie and Dave. I am Adam. We're back on Thursday. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. What? Oh, yeah. I'm rusty.

You forgot. What did I miss? Huh? What. What? Oh, yeah. I'm rusty. You forgot. What did I miss? Huh? What did I miss? You know. I do know. Yeah. Am I supposed to say it?

No. Just let it linger. Gotta go. Bye. Dave, play us out. Na, na, na, na. Na, na, na.