Fantasy Football Today - 03/25: Gronk Reaction; Regression Candidates; NFL Draft TE Talk (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 26, 2019

The best TE in NFL history is retiring, so what is the Fantasy impact? Is Tom Brady definitely going to be less productive, or does recent history suggest otherwise? Is Sony Michel going to move up in the rankings? After our Gronkowski discussion, Dave will tell you one player who will take a step back in 2019 (13:40) with more to come ... News and notes (17:00) as we touch on Le'Veon Bell and Jay Ajayi. Then Dave has two other regression candidates (22:31). Why isn't he pumped up about Jared Cook's move to NO and Derrick Henry's awesome finish to 2018? ... Ryan Wilson joins us to talk about the TE class in the NFL Draft (28:50). We've got some good ones this year! Then Jamey comes on from Phoenix (37:25) to give his thoughts on Gronkowski and give us three players who will take a step back in 2019 ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today.

Gronkless Fantasy Football Today. The end of an era. The greatest tight end in football today. Gronkless fantasy football today. The end of an era. The greatest tight end in football history. That is not even a debate. He is retiring and we are talking about it. And meanwhile, the second best tight end in football history, Jared Cook, is probably on his way to the Saints. Welcome to Dave Richard. I'm Adam Azer. What's up, Dave? Always sad when a big guy leaves the ranks of the National Football League. Gronk is one of those guys.

I enjoyed having him on my fantasy teams for a long, long time. And now I look forward to watching him at WrestleMania. Yeah, that'll be fun. And did you say Jared Cook is the second best tight end in history?

Oh, my. Well, I think it's debatable. I guess I shouldn't make it such a. You think it's debatable? OK. Hey, today on the show, we're going to have Ryan Wilson on to talk about tight ends in the NFL draft. And we'll have Jamie on. Jamie's not here at the moment.

He is in Phoenix for the owners meeting. And we talked about bounce backback candidates on our last show, so today we'll talk about players who are going to take a step back in 2019. So Dave will give us three, and Jamie will come on later and give us three. Let's talk about this Gronk thing, though. That is the biggest news item. Also, Jarek McKinnon will stay with San Francisco. That is obviously big news.

And Jared Cook close to signing with the Saints as of right now. Doug Baldwin is going to have surgery next month. So that boy is banged up. Anyway, stat of the day number one. In three games in 2018 without Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordon had 100, 130, and 81 yards. Three excellent games. Three of his four best yardage games of the season. In his other games, he only had one game with more than 70 receiving yards. Three excellent games. Three of his four best yardage games of the season. In his other

games, he only had one game with more than 70 receiving yards. Only two games with more than 58 receiving yards in nine games. Well, I guess eight with the Patriots without Gronkowski, but those three games without Gronk, Josh Gordon was great. Okay, so Josh Gordon may not

be a Patriot next year. And the big question now for fantasy purposes, who is most impacted by Gronk's absence in a good or bad way? It's Tom Brady. It's kind of obvious. Tom Brady, when he was at his best, obviously in 2007 he had Randy Moss. When Tom Brady's been at his best for fantasy, he's had at least one difference maker on the field,

just an unbelievable talent that really forced defenses to change the way that they played. And when you go back and watch the Patriots last year, the year before, any time this decade, the way that defenses played them when Gronk was healthy versus when Gronk wasn't healthy, there was a difference. Defenses had a hard time defending Gronk on a regular basis. I think people know this.

And when you run off that stat about Josh Gordon, Adam, it made me realize, A, Josh Gordon does have the potential to be a very good player. I don't know about a difference maker, but maybe close to that if he really had his head on straight and was really focused and really met his potential. But the other thing that I thought about is the Patriots might not let go of him because you look at everybody else that they have in that offense,

you know, about Julian Edelman and he's gonna have his role but there is there even a decent number two option in the passing game that's not a running back that tom brady's gonna have if you know the season starts now and i think josh gordon would have to be it and maybe there's a chance josh gordon makes his way back to the Patriots before everything's all said and done. If you're in a best ball draft, why not take Josh Gordon with one of your last two picks? So I knew that you were going to say Tom Brady would be the most affected.

And I think it's pretty obvious. I think my dog knew that I was going to say Tom Brady. Okay, but I think that Edelman is most affected in a positive way. I think the biggest mover to me would be Edelman because last year we saw him catch touchdowns at a rate that we had never seen before, and you might, and I feel like Heath will probably say that's fluky. I don't really want to speak for him,

but I feel like I've had this discussion with him before. But I would say that's the product of Rob Gronkowski not really being all that involved. Gronkowski caught three touchdowns in 13 games, 47 catches, 682 yards. How about this for Tom Brady, Dave? So he was the number 11 quarterback in four-point, number 12 in six-point last year. Still had a pretty good season, but only 29 touchdown passes in 16 games. And, you know, which is something that's becoming sort of typical for him as a late season slump. But 2017, Tom Brady was a top three quarterback. It was a down year for quarterbacks. He wasn't really that good. In fact, if you take his 2017 total, put it in 2018, he's the number nine quarterback

in fantasy. But here's something that really stands out. 2016, he only played 12 games. He was suspended for the first four games. You take a look at what Brady did in those 12 games in 2016, and you give him 16 games of that production, and Tom Brady would have been the number three quarterback in fantasy. What happened that year? New England was third in the NFL in rush attempts, just like they were in 2018. That was Blunt's 18 touchdown year, if I'm not mistaken. And Rob Gronkowski played only eight games that season. Yes, he did. Look at what Tom Brady did. His passer rating was 112.2. 28 touchdowns, two interceptions in 12 games. His leading receiver was Julian Edelman, 1,100 yards and three touchdowns. His second leading receiver in one of his best seasons, 2016, was Martellus Bennett, 701 yards and seven touchdowns. After that, Chris Hogan, James

White, Rob Gronkowski with between 540 and 680 yards. So look, there's no way that Brady is better without Gronk. But I just want to point out that just two seasons ago, I guess now three seasons ago, he was one of the best

quarterbacks in football, and he basically did it with Gronk being not much of a factor at all. But he still had Martellus Bennett. Whatever. There was still a solution at tight end, and for what it's worth, he got four touchdowns out of Malcolm Mitchell, four touchdowns out of Danny Amendola, four touchdowns out of Chris Hogan. He had a semblance of a group of receivers on top of Julian Edelman.

Now I don't know if he's got that. You don't think he can get five touchdowns out of Philip Dorsett? Yes, I think he can get five touchdowns out of Philip Dorsett. Can you name three other receivers on that team who can get it? James White. I'm not talking about James White. Obviously, they're going to have to make an addition. They're going to have to.

Chris Hogan's still there, right? I mean, Hogan, Dorsett. He's a free agent. All right. He is not still there. They can move on from the Chris-ter. I was going to say the Hulk-ster, but he's not a good Hogan. So tell me rankings now.

Tell me the impact. Did you make any adjustments to players or what? Well, Gronk's out. Yeah. So that happened. No, Brady wasn't in my top 12 to begin with. Where is he? I think he's like 15th, maybe 13th, but he shouldn't even be that high. There's just so many other quarterbacks that carry more upside. And I'll tell you who this affects that we haven't even brought up, and it's Sonny Michelin. It might be for the exact reason that I talked about when I said LeGarrette Blount in 2016 had 18 touchdowns.

It was 18 touchdowns, Adam? Yeah, I believe so, yeah. 18 touchdowns. Ran the ball. I'll look it up to see how often he ran the ball. He had 299 carries, 1,161 yards, and 18 touchdowns. There it is. So if the Patriots are going to morph into a team that runs the ball more,

I'd like to have that running back on my squad. That means Sonny Michel in round three at the absolute latest. If really nothing changes with the Patriots and Sonny Michel gets rave reviews in training camp, and Isaiah Wynn comes back healthy on that offensive line, we could talk about Sonny Michel in late round two.

We could talk about him ahead of Damian Williams, for example. I really wish there had been more of a sample size, but yeah, when I looked at the three games that Gronk did not play, the player that was affected the most was definitely Josh Gordon. Edelman has his role. James White has his role. Gordon was the one who, like I said, had three of his four best yardage games

without Rob Gronkowski. Would you take James White or Tevin Coleman in PPR? I currently have Coleman ranked higher. Okay. Okay. It's under the assumption that Coleman is going to be the best running back in San Francisco and that James White doesn't get 12 touchdowns in 2019.

Would you take James White or Chris Carson in PPR? I have Carson higher. Where do you have White? I've got him just outside the top 24 running backs in full PPR. Okay, Dave. Now that's one that could obviously change, but like you, I'm expecting the Patriots to do something for their passing game,

and I would expect significant regression from James Light. Well, Gronkowski really changed fantasy football. I mean, he and Jimmy Graham, not to say they were the first great tight ends, but it just, those and Jimmy Graham, not to say they were the first great tight ends, but it just those two guys were game changers at the position. Why don't you reflect on Rob Gronkowski? I remember when he came into the NFL and remember that big dance he did with his family on draft day when the Patriots took him. And I wish you had told me I'd have the chance to do this, Adam, because I would have gone back in my notes and found what I wrote about Gronkowski.

But I remember this. I remember thinking before the 2011 fantasy draft and going over in the podcast and all that saying Gronk has just this different type of size and body type, and he's got a great quarterback in Brady, and he's got a chance to be really good. Go get him. And I remember drafting him in a bunch of leagues in 2011, and he ended up coming up big then,

and pretty much big every year since then. And now teams are trying to find that next Gronk. I think that's what the Lions are trying to do when they got Jesse James, who's 6'7". I think that's what teams are going to do when they draft TJ Hawkinson and Noah Fant in the first round. I think that teams want to find that chess piece, and they'll find it at any position they can. But at tight end, if you can find a guy that's 6'6", 270 and runs like he's 6'2", 240 and can block and be a nuisance in the red zone, that's what Gronk was. And the other thing that I'm seeing is how people like Belichick and Josh McDaniels

and even Robert Kraft, they loved Gronk. They loved being around Gronk. Apparently that infectious personality that we saw on the field and maybe in the occasional press conference, that was him all the time, every day. Guy loves to party. He even partied when the Patriots lost the Super Bowl way back when. Remember that?

There's a video of him dancing shirtless in a club the night of the Super Bowl and the Patriots lost. Guy's never had a bad day. And now fantasy owners are going to have a bad time not having Gronk around. A couple things to promote real quick. Sportsline. Go to sportsline.com. Take a look.

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Dave, I asked you for three players who will take a step back. I'll ask you for two more in a bit, but give me one right now. The one I'll give you right now is Phillip Lindsey, who was great last year and could be in line for more work this year, but I'm a little worried about his durability. I'm still worried about him being in every down back. I think he'll still continue to share with at least Royce Freeman, if not Freeman and still Devante Booker. I'm not a fan of the new offensive coordinator in Denver. I'm not a fan of how that offensive line is looking in Denver. And I'm certainly not a fan of Joe Flacco being the quarterback there. He will be a little more chancy with the football he'll throw downfield not necessarily lean on lindsey out of the backfield i could see i could see lindsey taking a step back and

see him more as a round four or even around five type of fantasy running back and not around wow yeah i'm not i'm that's going to be somebody that i'm just not going to end up getting i'll be in too many drafts with people who want to try and cash in on him for the second year in a row. And he's a fun dude. He seems cool and definitely kind of upbeat. People root for those types of players. Certainly has the underdog vibe.

But I just don't see him matching what he did last year. Lindsey was the number 11 running back in non-PPR, number 13 in PPR. He did have only 43% of his team's carries inside the five-yard line. We'd like to see that number go up. And he's got, you know, he had the wrist injury, and he will not be ready for OTAs. So, Phillip Lindsey says, Dave says he will take a step back. He's definitely not, yeah. I mean, he's like a second round pick right now you're definitely

not getting him no okay uh i have a segment called adam saw a movie and i really want to talk about it real quick so was this on netflix in the comfort of your home or did you actually venture out to a movie theater it was on jet blue on the ride on the way back from Fort Lauderdale. So JetBlue, you've got a screen in the seat in front of you that's like three inches wide. Yeah, it's very small. By two inches tall. Right. Okay.

The newer planes have bigger TVs. This one, no, not so much. So, you know, you've got to keep that in mind because it doesn't really help the experience. But I loved this movie. I recommend it. This is a very popular movie. But if you haven't seen it, you have to see it. Have you seen A Star is Born? No.

Oh, my God. It is so good. It is so good. I can't stop talking about it. All I want to do is talk about it with people who have seen the movie. Well, that's not me. I'm sorry. I'm not a...

I don't know. I haven't seen that movie. I know everybody thinks I have bad takes. This is a good take. That movie is awesome. Wasn't it nominated for a bunch of Grammys? I'm sure. I mean, Lady Gaga basically seduced Bradley Cooper on stage at the Oscars.

We all saw that. Did you see that? No. It's pretty funny. Like, they're singing the song together, and it's just so romantic. It's like, you're married. Okay. Anyway, see the movie.

Injuries, news, and notes. New Orleans is close to signing Jared Cook. More on him in a moment. Jared McKinnon will stay with San Francisco. Mwah, mwah. Why is that a mwah, mwah? What do you mean? That sucks.

Maybe. Sucks. You're still bullish on Tevin Coleman. I think he's the, the healthiest running back that they've got. I think he's the most capable of playing three downs. I don't, I don't think there's any question about it.

I think, I think the 49ers tried to take a swing with McKinnon and they, uh, missed before the season even started. And now they know that they can't lean on him too heavily. If they're going to lean on one back heavily, I think it's going to be Coleman, who's got everything going for him. I don't think he's either.

He's barely has a thousand touches over his career or he's just over and he's he's capable of playing three downs. Maybe the 49ers end up mixing and matching their running backs and it'll be a little bit of a headache. But I would expect Tevin Coleman to be the best running back in San Francisco. And I want that running back on my fantasy team. I want the best Kyle Shanahan back on my squad. Doug Baldwin will have sports hernia surgery next month.

Are you going to treat him as if he has a clean bill of health or as an injury-prone, kind of broken-down guy? He's on the backside of his career. I think it's come to this. Great player when he was breaking out in the year after that, but I don't see Doug Baldwin being a top 15 type of fantasy receiver. He's a player you'll take right around 55th overall. Doug Baldwin.

All right. Former Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Todd Haley said the Jets are going to have to get used to Le'Veon Bell's running style, and that's interesting. You know, I mean, is he going to have time to wait behind the offensive line, read a book, eat some popcorn, and then get going? Because he's not going to be running behind the Steelers' offensive line. No. And that's one of the reasons to not pick Le'Veon Bell. And on top of that, not only did Todd Haley say that, and it's true what Todd Haley's saying,

basically he's saying that the offensive line has to sustain its blocks for a little bit longer than it normally would there will definitely be times where Le'Veon is hit behind the line more than you'd like to see and you know in Pittsburgh maybe for every two times he was hit by mine he had one real nice explosive play maybe that turns into a three toto-one ratio with the Jets. Adam Gase also said, and maybe Jamie will bring this up at the coach's breakfast in Arizona, that he plans on limiting

Le'Veon's reps. He doesn't want to burn them out. That's not good. We want Le'Veon to get burned out. Yeah, but you knew that he was going to say that because he never would have signed with the Jets if they weren't going to ease up on the reps. That was the biggest reason he sat out last year. Please, he signed with the Jets because they offered him the most money.

Okay, but he obviously— If they offered him the most money and they're going to give him lots of reps, he will take those reps. Okay. He'll get plenty of reps. Marshawn Lynch will make a decision about his future after the NFL draft. Jay Ajayi, there are rumors about the Colts. He's still talking to Philadelphia.

Don't go to the Colts. Leave Marlon Mack alone. Dallas Center Travis... He might end up being depth by the time the season starts. He's too good to be just depth. He might be depth, I'm saying. I mean, you're right, but it's not like... I mean, I'd rather them have...

If I like a starting running back, I don't want that team to get Jay Ajayi. Even though I know Ajayi would be the second stringer, he'd obviously be a very good second stringer. Just think about the two teams that we're talking about. It's Indianapolis and Philadelphia. These are two teams that like to rotate their backs anyway. And obviously Frank Reich from Philadelphia. Yep.

Dallas center Travis Frederick expected to be ready for offseason workouts, according to The Athletic. That's good news. It's really good news. The Rams matched an offer sheet for running back Malcolm Brown. I can't remember if I cut him or not in my Dynasty League. I think I may have, which is disappointing, because I have Gurley in that league.

Go get him back. Yeah, I'd like to. Houston signed left tackle Matt Khalil. Antonio Gates could return this season. Buffalo released Chris Ivory. John Gruden said tight end Darren Waller will get the chance of a lifetime. Did I say anything recently that has made you excited? Absolutely not.

Not even Gates returning because I think he would be made you excited? Absolutely not. Not even Gates returning because I think he would be what if I called him the mascot? He's basically the mascot for the Chargers offense. Mascot will catch a couple of touchdowns every year. Not somebody who will be... His best fantasy days

are done. How about Antonio Gates lasting longer in the NFL than Rob Gronkowski? Well, in terms of age, not even close. Tampa Bay could cut Gerald McCoy. He's still a good defensive tackle. Darren Sproles could be back with the Eagles in 2019. Marquise Lee, I mean, this must have been a real serious injury. He may not be ready until late in the preseason.

Marquise Lee for the Jaguars. And Darius Geis expected to be ready for training camp. Jamie's going to come on later and talk about the Redskins running backs. Dave, two more players who will take a step back, and then we will talk to Ryan Wilson about the NFL draft and the tight ends there. So you gave us Phillip Lindsay. Let's talk about Jared Cook. Assuming he is on the Saints, you're still not really feeling it.

He was the number five tight end in fantasy last year. He was the number five tight end in fantasy and the number one option in Oakland's passing game, especially after Amari Cooper got traded away. And that's not going to be the case in New Orleans. And I'll pose this question to you, Adam. When's the last time a Saints tight end was very relevant for fantasy? It was only three years ago. It was Ben Watson. He was a top eight tight end. And what were the numbers for him? He had 74 catches, 825 yards, and 6 touchdowns on 109 targets in 16 games.

That's Ben Watson. He was 7th in non-PPR, 5th in PPR in 2015. Since then, it's been Fleener with 631 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fleener with 295 yards and 2 touchdowns. And then Watson with 402. 400 yards and 2 touchdowns. So three straight years of terrible tight end production. So it was actually four years ago when Ben Watson was top seven tight end.

I think Jared Cook can finish in the top ten, but I think it will be numbers that are right around the six touchdowns. That's what Ben Watson had three years ago, six. Yeah. And Cook had six touchdowns, that's what Ben Watson had three years ago? Six? Yeah. And Cook had six touchdowns last year, but he had almost 900 yards with it. I don't think there's any chance he even gets close to 800 yards. I think he's going to be like 700 yards, six touchdowns. The weeks where he scores, great.

He'll be awesome for your fantasy team. But he's not going to be relied upon in the same way as he was last year in Oakland. Career high, 101 targets. Career high, 68 catches. Career high, 896 yards. How many targets do you think? Because Watson had 109 targets in 2015. Yeah, I think it'll be under 100 for sure.

I think it might be closer to like 85. I think there's going to be some weeks where Cook is a non-factor or maybe he only gets three targets and he scores a touchdown. He's not going to be that number two guy for them. They've gotten by mixing and matching who their number two is week after week. Or maybe it's simple as saying that Michael Thomas is the number one and Alvin Kamara is the number two. So maybe we're talking about who's going to be that third option. Maybe Cook will be the best of their guys, but there will be weeks where he disappears. There were weeks last year where he disappeared.

And that's when he was the number one guy in that team's passing game. Sure, sure. Does he affect Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara negatively, do you think? No. Okay. But the next, if the Saints add another big time, no, big time, if the Saints add another player that could see a lot of playing time

and a lot of targets, then yeah, that'll start to weigh on Thomas and Kamara. Hey, real quick programming announcement. I believe our second show this week will be on Friday. It will be somewhat of a mailbag. It will be a Dynasty show. We're going to talk a lot about Dynasty. That is the goal. So please stay tuned for that on Friday.

Your last player who will take a step back, you've already given me Philip Lindsay and Jared Cook. How about Derek Henry and his massive game four touchdowns like gosh I don't remember 220-ish yards against the Jaguars it started the end of a it was the beginning of the end of the season and that end run

for him was just outstanding so yeah Derek Henry taking a step back and he didn't really take a step back even after those two big games. He finished those four games with almost 600 rushing yards, seven touchdowns. Pretty crazy.

I think that that's just unsustainable. I don't think that that's saying anything. I just don't think fantasy managers should lose sight over what he did before that, which was averaging right around 40 rush yards a game, five touchdowns in 12 games.

It took him forever to score last year. I still believe he's going to end up splitting carries. I still think this offense is going to be a quagmire. I don't think Marcus Mariota will get the job done to make defenses worry about the passing game. Definitely don't love the offensive coordinator situation i think derrick henry is gonna just he's gonna have to run like a man possessed like he did last year in those last four games and i don't see it happening so i'm hoping that people don't buy in to derrick henry based on how last season ended and uh look at him more as a as a player who's gonna grind for the occasional

great game handful of good games and a lot of subpar games as i look at the fantasy pros consensus rankings i see carry on johnson chris carson derrick henry davante freeman damian williams yeah williams is ahead of all those guys for me. I think the one that I would take Henry over is Carson. They're back-to-back for me. I've still got Carson a notch ahead. Who do you like, Henry or Devontae Freeman? I've got Henry ahead of Freeman.

Okay. And I have Henry a spot ahead of Fournette, two spots ahead of Marlon Mack, three ahead of Tevin Coleman. I guess what I'm saying is if it's late round three and you need a running back, Derek Henry might be the best you can get. But I wouldn't target him with that second round pick or even that early third round choice. And in PPR, he's going to take an even steeper step back because he's just not catching enough passes. I was hesitant and careful actually not to name this a bust episode because it's not like these guys are going to be bad. They're taking a step back.

There are circumstances where I will draft these guys. I just expect others to take them before I do. All right, Dave. Good stuff. Let's talk NFL draft. The Patriots could be in the market for a tight end, in case you haven't heard. And there are some good ones. So we'll bring on our NFL draft expert, Ryan Wilson, right now to talk about it.

Welcome back, CBS Sports NFL draft writer, Ryan Wilson. How's it going? Hey, Adam. Thanks for having me. You should have to call me by my CBS Sports podcast host, Adam Azer. We're very formal here. CBS Sports podcast host, Adam Azer. I should point out quickly, I know we're short on time here,

but I was scolded last week by Will Brinson by not mentioning that I often appear on the Pick 6 podcast, which is for CBS Sports Podcast family. So let me do that quickly before I get yelled at. All right, Azer, continue. I'm sorry for that public service announcement. And Will, just so you know, Will Brinson, and so everybody else knows, I did ask Will to come on the show today,

but he unfortunately couldn't make the times work. He was watching Robbie. I'm sure he'd take Robbie to the park. Swim lessons. Of course. All right. Tell us about the tight ends, the ones we really need to know about for the NFL draft. All right.

It starts at the top with TJ Hawkinson out of Iowa. He and his teammate at Iowa, Noah Fant, are the two number one guys both almost certainly first round picks t.j hawkinson could actually be a top 10 pick he's that good he's a fantastic blocker fantastic pass catcher and he reminds a lot of people of rob gronkowski he's more travis kelsey to me but i figure fantasy wise those guys will work out if you're looking for a tight end. Noah Fant, his teammate in college, isn't a blocker so much, but he is every bit the pass-catching phenom that Evan Ingram is for the Giants when Evan Ingram has someone to throw him the ball. So those are two first-round talents, different skill sets. Both can go down the field, both super athletic. After that, it's Irv Smith Jr. out of Alabama, who is a little smaller.

He's like 6'2", 245-ish. He reminds me a little bit of Delaney Walker in his prime. He's another guy. You didn't see him do a lot at Alabama because that's because Alabama is so unbelievably talented. But he can block, and he can certainly catch and create mismatch problems in the middle of the field. He's a fringe first-round guy. He'll probably end up going in round two, but I know a lot of teams like him and a lot of teams like him for his

versatility. And, um, the last guy I'll mention quickly here, and I had him going at the, with the 64th pick in my two round mock draft came out Monday, Jay Sternberger out of Texas A&M. He's a one-year production guy.

Cause he transferred in, uh, play to Kansas, Kansas or Kansas state. I can't remember early in his career. And then went to junior college. But he's not much of a blocker, but he is a fantastic athlete down the field, contested catch guy.

And while he won't replace Gronk in terms of the whole thing that Gronk brings to the field, his athleticism and his ability to make plays down the field and create mismatches is something I would imagine that would appeal to Bill Belichick. I was taken back by how fast these guys were at the combine, especially Noah Fant. I think his straight line speed was in the 4.5 range, which is outstanding for a tight end. that's NFL ready where, and maybe it's, it's Hawkinson where they, they can get drafted to a team, be a starter week one and be a contributor to that passing game in week one. Sorry, I was on mute there. I did that. I think you're exactly right, Dave. It is, it starts with Hawkinson who can, I've had him going as high as seven and mock drafts, which come out every week.

I had him going seven to the Jaguars a few weeks ago. And that makes a lot of sense to me because if they're sick with Nick Foles, they desperately need help. They don't have much in the way of tight ends. And he's a guy who could roll out of bed and immediately contribute. But also I think Noah Fant could also in the right system. If he goes to the Raiders, for example, where they'll just let Jared Cook get away to the Saints, he's a guy who could play, doesn't play in line. He could split in, play in the slot, and be a huge contributor in the same way that Evan Ingram was early in his career. And those two guys sort of jump off the page of me as guys who could contribute sooner rather than later.

And I love you got Hawkinson going to the Packers at 12 in your latest mock draft. That would be terrific. Wow. If we could do some comparisons, I was just looking at a scouting report of O.J. Howard from NFL.com by Bucky Brooks from a few years ago. And Bucky Brooks called him the most complete tight end prospect in 10 years. And he's got some quotes from some scouts, head coaches, just loving O.J. Howard, who slipped a little bit in the draft. I can't remember, what did he go, like 17th, 18th or something to the Bucs?

But do you think that these guys are – how does Hawkinson, I guess, since he's the best prospect, compare to O.J. Howard as a prospect? He's much more developed. He doesn't look like O.J. Howard. O.J. Howard as a prospect? He's much more developed. He doesn't look like O.J. Howard. O.J. Howard looks like a grown man. And Hawkinson, you know, he's 6'5", 250 or whatever every tight end seems to be. He ran a 4'7". And at first glance, you might think, oh, that's a little slow,

but that's what Zach Hertz ran, and Zach Hertz is doing okay. And so he's not physically imposing like O.J. Howard. I think he's more developed. I think he's a better route runner. I think he does all the little things a little better. Because the thing with O.J. Howard is he was going to come in and sort of be the big play down the middle of the field guy that the Bucs were hoping Jameis Winston could use. It hasn't worked out to that effect just yet. But I feel like Hoggison is more NFL ready, if that makes sense.

And like I mentioned, he's more Travis Kelsey in terms of his development. And that, I would imagine, is appealing to a lot of teams. It's exciting. Where does he rank among wide receivers? Like if you had to rank Hockinson along with the DK Metcalfs and if I were Brown, where does he rank among them? Would he be at the top of the list by any chance? That's a great question, Dave.

If I were the Patriots, for example, and I could take either a tight end or a wide receiver first because they need both, I would take TJ Hawkinson over DK Metcalf. I don't even hesitate much on that question. Now, someone like Marquise Brown, the smaller wide receiver at Oklahoma who compares to Tyreek Hill, if he's healthy, I'm taking him. Akeem Butler's another 6'5 wide receiver at Iowa State who's a playmaker down the field. I might be 50-50, but I think pushed on the issue, I'm taking Hawkinson just because you feel so comfortable in what you're getting and there's no concerns like there are

with DK Metcalf in terms of him having to learn how to run routes because he knew that Ole Miss or the durability issues or the fact that he's so raw yeah that's a that's a great question Dave how how good of a route runner is Hawkinson fantastic I mean the way scouts talk about it you think uh they were talking about OJ Howard as sort of Acer just read out those scouting reports. But legitimately, people are really excited about this guy. And he sort of came out of not nowhere, but the conversation coming into 2018 was Noah Fant, because who's insanely athletic. And Fant had a good season. Hawkinson had a good season, too.

And that's more of a function of Iowa's offense. But when people started studying them both deeper and watching their games, Hawkinson jumps out at you. He does everything well. And the only difference between him and Fant, one of the issues, is that Fant's two-tenths of a second faster than the 40, and Fant's not quite the blocker. Fant can block, but he's less of an in-line guy.

And Hawkinson, by all accounts, you watch him play, there's nothing this guy can't do. Well, really, Ryan, this whole segment was just an excuse for me to talk about how much I love O.J. Howard. So thank you for giving me that opportunity. We appreciate it, man. It's good stuff. And rookie tight ends, they can be a little risky, but you know what?

Sometimes they pay off. And Ryan Wilson, I'm sure we'll have you on at a later date. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, guys. All right, we're going to take a quick break. Dave, thank you, by the way, for joining the show. Hey, my pleasure.

All right, so that's Dave and Ryan. When we come back, we'll talk to Jamie Eisenberg and wrap things up here on Fantasy Baseball today. Remember to email us. Or Fantasy Football. Fantasy Football today. Remember to email us, fantasyfootball at cbsi.com, and we will be right back. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM,

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It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. What's going on, Jamie Eisenberg? How are you, Adam Azer? I am... I'm good. I'm good. I'm really good. I'm excited for opening day. Excited to share a couple of fantasy baseball teams with you and then also football there's that too uh yes football is typically what we talk about here but i'm excited about our fantasy baseball teams as well good i know i just kind of forgot where i was for a second which podcast i was

hosting so listen you've already heard from dave you already heard from ryan wilson here's jamie's turn uh before we get into jamie's players that are going to take a step back this year, you had a chance to speak to Mike Vrabel about Derrick Henry? Yes. I'm going to paraphrase because it literally just happened within the last hour or so, so I haven't gone through my conversation with him. But the gist of it is, I said, what clicked for him last year toward the end of the season? How does that carry over this year? And he said, basically, he started to run a little bit more angry, a little bit more with a purpose. He said everything around him started to click a little bit better.

He referenced kind of the downfield blocking. And he said, we had some three-yard to five-yard runs that turned into 10 to 15-yard runs. And so he said everything was just kind of working in a consistent group down the field. But he said he's got to have that same approach, and everybody has that same approach. So I think if you have realistic expectations for what Derrick Henry is and not the 200-yard game or whatever he had against Jacksonville, thinking you're going to get that guy for 16 games,

I think he can sort of build off what he did last year but not necessarily be the number one or top five running back that we saw at the end of last season. With the news that Jarek McKinnon is going to stick with the 49ers, are you taking Derek Henry or Tevin Coleman? Oh, Henry. Yeah, Coleman is – I'm still a little bit curious how this is all going to work out, but yes, definitely going to take Derek Henry ahead of Tevin Coleman.

Okay, after the 238-yard game, I may have mentioned this already, but he had 33 carries, 170 yards, and two touchdowns against the Giants. And then 21 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown against Washington. See, that's the guy I think you're going to get.

If they're in competitive games and able to lean on their ground game, then you're in good shape getting those type of numbers. That, I think, is not necessarily the ceiling, but I think that's kind of on the hopeful, optimistic end of what you can think that you're going to get a good game at him. Yeah, it's 21 carries, 84 yards, and a touchdown. And Adrian Peterson is another guy who had some 20-carry games.

Let's take a look right now. First week of the season, 26 carries, 20 fantasy points. Let's see. Seventh week of the season, 24 carries, 9 fantasy points, 107 total yards. Eighth week, 26 carries, 24 fantasy points. This is all non-PPR. We know he doesn't catch the ball much. And last game of the season, or second to last, 26 carries, 11 fantasy points with 127 total yards.

He also had a couple games with 19 carries, three games with 19 carries, in fact. And he mostly produced when he got to work. But this is a guy that you are saying, Adrian Peterson, will take a step back in 2019. Well, I mean, the obvious reason is because of Darius Geist being healthy. Jay Gruen talked about that today, saying that he expects him to be ready for training camp. Hopefully he's going to get some work in OTAs. But if you just look at having the competition of what Geist should be, that's going to be something that will significantly hurt Peterson.

You understand it from the team standpoint, why they bring Peterson Peterson back because you don't know what Geis will be. But if in fact he's anything that we hoped he could be before the ACL injury last year, then that's going to make Peterson's role less important and less valuable. So it hurts both of their fantasy values. Oh, man. I mean, even if Geis is not healthy, I want nothing to do with Adrian Peterson. Although I suppose... Okay, I want nothing to do with him and not PPR. I suppose when we start getting around pick 100 in a PPR league, you know, if he's in line to get a bunch of carries, he could still do okay. If Geis is healthy?

If Geis is not healthy or if Geis is healthy but not really a big factor, an eight-carry-a-game kind of guy. If Adrian Peterson is still the primary ball carrier for Washington, we are talking about what's going to be a terrible offense. So you wonder how many scoring opportunities they're going to have. You're talking about a guy who catches about one ball per game. Jamie, no. No.

No on Peterson for me. Yeah, no, same here. Okay, who else? Damian Williams. This one's a lot more interesting. He'll take a step back, and he was just putting up some crazy numbers. His last four games, 18 fantasy points. PPR, 18 fantasy points against Baltimore.

29 against the Chargers 24 at Seattle 12 against Oakland Damien Williams And then the playoffs And then the playoffs Oh yeah I forget the playoffs Yeah

We're nuts The playoffs were just ridiculous 25 against the Colts 35 against the Patriots Those are all PPR Look he's He's in a good spot

But I think you noted this on one of our shows previously His career high in carries was 50 45 against the Patriots. Those are all PPR. Look, he's in a good spot. But I think you noted this on one of our shows previously. His career high in carries was 50 for a season. A season high in carries was 50. So you're asking a guy to step into a situation where he's got to do that over 16 games. The last time he had this opportunity was when he was with Miami. Jay Ajayi was traded. He was competing with Kenny and Drake.

Obviously, you can look at the two guys and say Drake, probably the more explosive player of the two. But at the time, Williams, I think, was 24 years old. I think he's 26 or 27 now. He had the chance to take advantage of that opportunity. He got hurt. And so you just have to wonder, can he stay healthy? Can he hold off Carlos Hyde?

And I don't think that they're done adding to their backfield. So I think if you get him in the right spot, I'd be okay with him round four. But we've seen round two. I think you're going to end up seeing his average draft position, if we were drafting now, probably round three. To me, that's just too expensive. One question I have about Damian Williams is really about how good Carlos Hyde is. He's certainly someone who I feel like people don't think he's such a great running back.

Maybe he's like he's fine. But nobody thought Damian Williams was any good. Oh, it's Andy Reid. Andy Reid is obviously going to give him a ton of opportunities. It's just a matter of he's, I think, a little bit limited in just the type of upside play that he is. Which one? Williams. Okay.

That's my concern. I would rather let someone else take Williams and regret it, but settle for Carlos Hyde three rounds later. Okay. And who's your last guy who's going to take a step back? You have to remind me because I texted you. There's a million things going on here.

Eric Ebron. Oh, yes. Yes, that guy. Look, 14 touchdowns was amazing last year, but they added another red zone piece with Devin Funchess. I spoke to Frank Reich about that. He said he's another guy that has a big catch radius, big target. I got a chance to speak to one of the Colts beat writers who I trust. Prior to the coaches speaking, he said, you know,

that's going to be a red zone threat for Andrew Luck, who likes those big targets. So, you know, if Ebron stays in the same catch range and yards range but comes down, let's say, four or five touchdowns, which I think is probably on the low end. I think he probably comes down six or seven touchdowns. You're talking about still a good player, still a number one tight end, but I think he's going to get possibly overdrafted

with the hope that he does that again. And you also have, hopefully, Jack Doyle coming back 100%. What if I told you that if you took seven touchdowns away from Eric Ebron, got to make sure my math is right here, that he would have been the number five. Yeah. He's number four. You took seven away from him, he'd be the number five tight end in fantasy.

Oh, I think he's still the number one guy. But your question was, who's the regression guy? And he screams off the page just because of what the touchdown tells me let's just say it's worse let's say you know doyle comes back and takes let's say four of those touchdowns and devin funchess comes in and takes five of those touchdowns and then iran just by the nature of what his game is drops uh or loses another touchdown just without you know those guys just taking it away so you're talking maybe it's nine touchdowns, maybe it's ten touchdowns. Who knows what it could be?

He's never done this before. So there's a lot of risk with chasing just those numbers. Yeah, and here's the thing. So the way tight end finished last year is Kelsey, Ertz, Kittle, Ebron, and then a little bit of a gap. Well, Kelsey, Ertz, Kittle, gap, Ebron, gap, Cook, huge gap. Everyone else, basically. So even though Ebron would have been the number five tight end instead of number four,

if you take away seven of his touchdowns, you are really talking about the Austin Hooper, Kyle Rudolph, Trey Burton range. And obviously those guys were not players that you wanted to start every week. Fact is, there just were basically three, I would say, Ebron, there were four tight ends that we were definitely starting every week. Jared Cook became one. We've talked a lot about him. Why don't you give your reaction to the tight end news, Jamie? The Gronkowski news, the Jared Cook news. And first, who's affected the most, do you think, either positively or negatively right now by the Rob Gronkowski retirement? Well, I think negatively clearly is Brady because you look at this receiving core, what it is, it's ugly.

You have Julian Edelman. Philip Dorsett had some good moments when he had at least five targets last season. You figure he's going to be in that range. He's not a bad guy that could benefit from this that you're looking with a later round pick or later round pick. I think Sonny Michel, you know, James White, those guys based on their specific roles, White in the passing game, Michel clearly carrying the ball is, you know, you'd think that's the focus of what this offense is going to be. Edelman was the number 22 PPR receiver last year with missing four games. So, you know, if he's able to play 16 games, that puts him closer to maybe the top 10. Oh, yeah.

Yep. So it's kind of the two-sided coin with how this works. But Brady was already going to be drafted as a number two quarterback, I think, or ranked as a number two quarterback. Whether he's going to be drafted that way remains to be seen. But there's also, now this puts them in play, there are four first-round caliber tight ends. The two kids from Iowa, the kid from Alabama,

and then I'm sure Ryan covered this, you know, the four guys that will potentially go in the first round. And the Patriots will be in play for one of those guys, for sure. TJ Hawkinson, a Noah fan from Iowa. Herb Smith Jr. from Alabama. Jay Sternberger from Texas A&M. Sternberger, yeah. I couldn't think of where he was from.

I didn't want to say the wrong school. Don't worry about it. We don't have that many Aggies listening. It's all good. So, yeah, and Dave is not really feeling Jared Cook. Even going to New Orleans, he just doesn't trust the guy who's been so inconsistent in his career. I think you have to know what to expect. You're going to get probably five really good games and probably three to five really awful games.

And then, what is that, ten? So six mediocre games. Who do you like better, Cook or Ebron? Still Ebron. What do you make of this stat? Back to Eric Ebron. Jack Doyle played in six games last year. Eric Ebron caught seven touchdowns in those six games.

Yeah, I think when both guys were healthy, they were able to use Ebron outside a little bit more, but now you have what I would figure just a touchdown hog or somebody who could share the touchdown role in Funchess. And it's almost like, you know, you probably heard this phrase a lot, the Patriots car wash. You know, you take a guy that has been bad someplace else and put him on a better franchise. I think Ebron had that situation for him, and I think Funchess will as well. And so he's on this one-year prove-it deal for the Colts. I just think that's going to impact.

It makes Andrew Luck that much more attractive. Okay, and then last thing, just to further the point. So yes, while Ebron did have seven touchdowns in six games with Jack Doyle, in those six games, he only had more than 51 yards at once. So he really, really needed those touchdowns. And I haven't gotten in on the fun. I haven't given a guy who I think is going to be worse next year, going to take a step back. So I don't know who I want to say, but I will. Well, I mean, there are the obvious ones of, you know,

guys that we talked about, Todd Gurley. Mahomes was probably the poster child for this, I think. He's the headliner. Because you just can't have a year like that. You just can't do it again. I'm sorry. 5,100 yards, 50 touchdowns? No way.

I don't know if he's getting 40 touchdowns. Yeah. I'm doing – we did two editions of our magazine the first edition is going to have at least the plan is to have mahomes on on the cover and i'm writing the story i've been working on it since the the pro bowl i spoke to andy reid about him in particular and he said you know defenses are obviously now seeing a year of what he can do um they're well aware of uh you know just the type of player he He's like, but we are going to add wrinkles to the offense and certainly have the ability to put him in better situations.

I spoke to a lot of defensive players at the Pro Bowl, a lot of guys at the Super Bowl about him. His teammates included Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey. One thing that would certainly drive home your point is Tyreek Hill going to miss any time. And Andy Reid spoke about that at length today saying he doesn't know yet. And so they're still waiting to see whether that situation is going to play itself out. I would say regardless, I mean, there's just statistical regression coming for Patrick Mahomes. You just take a look at Peyton Manning and his record-setting year

and what he did the following year. He was great, but it's hard to put up 50 touchdown seasons back-to-back years. I am interested. But what would you say Mahomes falls to? Number one quarterback, 4,800 yards, 40 touchdowns, something like that. So he loses 10. Yeah, sure. What do you think?

I think he can still get to 45. That's a lot. That's a lot. Oh, total. Yeah. What do you think? I think he can still get to 45. That's a lot. That's a lot. Total. Yeah. I am interested to see if Christian McCaffrey's numbers will go down. I'm nervous with him.

You are? Just the line. The line is so shaky. The line's bad. You've got to figure Cam should be able to throw the ball downfield better. And maybe McCaffrey doesn't get 124 targets. And will he have seven touchdowns? I mean, Cam Newton did not. How many? Do you know off the top of your head

how many rushing touchdowns Cam Newton had? I do not. Okay, so that was a big thing. He just didn't really get four. That's not super low for him, but he has had a couple of double-digit rushing touchdown seasons. And he's missed time, too. Yeah, so I feel like McCaffrey could be double-digit rushing touchdown seasons. And he missed time, too. Yeah.

So I feel like McCaffrey could be the number one pick. Some people might take him number one in PPR. Some people might take him number one. No, no, no. I've seen it. Because when I did the poll, who should be number one? Gurley, Zeke, Barkley, I think, was the poll. And then someone else.

I got a lot of responses that said Christian McCaffrey. Now, this was before Ingram was off the Saints officially, so I bet some people might consider Alvin Kamara there. I don't think it'll be consensus number one, but I think some people will take McCaffrey number one in PPR. Yeah, I mean, look, when I say I'm nervous, I'm still taking him in the first round. That offensive line scares me.

Yeah, I think he might go, like, number two in PPR, maybe ADP. I don't know how you can take him ahead of Barkley or Elliott. Well, you could project 50 more catches than Elliott. Not if you look at what Elliott started to do once they got Cooper, catch the ball. I think 50 is a stretch. So, I mean, Christian McCaffrey scored one fewer fantasy points than Saquon Barkley.

They were basically tied for number one in PPR. Zeke didn't miss any games, did he? No. I don't believe. Did he play week 17? No, he did not. But he scored, sorry, this is he did not. But he scored. Sorry, this is all off the top of my head.

He scored like 57 fewer fantasy points than Christian McCaffrey in PPR. McCaffrey had 107 catches. Zeke had 77. So, man, Zeke had 77 catches? That is sneaky good. Wow. And I don't think his touchdowns are going to be as low as they were a year ago. Hey, listen, I would definitely take Zeke over McCaffrey.

I feel like some people in PPR, you know, 20% of people might do the opposite. Look, if the Panthers are able to fix their offensive line through the draft, anybody that they're able to still sign, it'll certainly help McCaffrey. McCaffrey's not going to be bad. I'm just a little concerned with the guys in front of him. How's Phoenix treating you? Good. Let's see.

I was walking out of a bathroom yesterday and nearly got hit in the face by John Gruden walking into the bathroom. Really? Yes. He was aggressive opening the door. I'm trying to think. Anything else? You've got to be careful with that.

That is just bad etiquette. He should know better. I mean, you know, he's John Gruden. I'm just kidding. Gruden can do whatever the hell he wants. No, the coaches were good. I spent a lot of time focusing on the stuff that I'm going to be doing for our magazine, but I've got a lot of news and notes. We share most of those on on our next show when we have

some more time cool um but uh no it's fun it's always fun to be uh be at these events yeah that's great and i look forward to hearing about i think our next show is gonna be on friday i may have mentioned that already and just so you know full disclosure i'm recording this interview with jamie before the first part of the show so i don't know what I've already mentioned, but I assume I've mentioned. I was going to say something to you when you said this – when you said it before. Like I may have mentioned this. I'm like, just be transparent. Yeah, yeah.

It makes sense, right? You're piecing this show together because we're all over the place. Right. So this is being recorded first. I will say, though, one of – you probably heard me say how much I'm excited about this guy. Bruce Arians is not taking me off the ledge by any stretch with what he said about Chris Godwin today. Oh, really? He said he could see 100 catches from out of the slot.

100 catches. Wow. All right, let's end the show with this. How many wide receivers caught 100 passes last year? I'm going to guess seven. I'm going to guess seven. I was going to say five. Oh, my gosh. We're way off.

Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, Juju, Devante Adams, Antonio Brown, Stefan Diggs. That's eight. Not even close for me. Eight. Well, better than me. I think my guess is Odell would have been on pace for that. What did he play?

12 games? He had 77 catches. Let's do the math. 77 divided by 12 times 16. 103. Good job. And I think maybe A.J. Green, too. Yeah, I think so. But I don't feel like maybe A.J. Green, too? Yeah, I think so,

but I don't feel like doing the math again. Jamie, thank you very much. Thank you for making me get the calculator out. You don't want to go through and continue to do this exercise? I don't think so. I want to thank our listeners, and on Friday,

Jamie's got his notes from the owner's meeting. Wait, did you just say receivers? Because there was a tight end that went over 100 catches. I just said wide receivers. I did. And also Dynasty. That's right.

It's time for our Dynasty show. We'll talk Dynasty on Friday. Zach Ertz, 116. And how many running backs? McCaffrey. That's it. Oh, yeah, McCaffrey. So it was 11 guys.

Unbelievable. That's Jimmy Eskworth guys we are now finishing the show have a great no we're not finishing the show gotta go bye