Fantasy Football Today - 05/09: More Sleepers/Breakouts/Busts and When to do a Rookie Draft (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 9, 2019

Jamey gives us a bold prediction about the Rams WRs (3:00) and we discuss why Cooper Kupp could provide great draft value. And why do some people do Dynasty rookie-only drafts so early (8:40)? Why not wait until the preseason begins? ... News and notes (12:30), and we try to figure out the three best receiving units in the NFL (15:35). Hello Cleveland! ... Sleepers (20:00) including Jimmy Garoppolo, breakouts (27:30) including Baker Mayfield and busts (35:40) including Le'Veon Bell. And on an unrelated note, if you were at a baseball game would you rather witness history or see your team win (44:00)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It is T-minus three days until Game of Thrones, but we're not going to talk about that today.

We're going to talk about fantasy football on Thursday, May 9th. What's up, everybody? Adam, Dave, and Jamie here. What's up, Dave and Jamie? What's up, Adam? Oh, not much. We got a bold prediction from Jamie. You know, he... He wasn't willing to give it on Tuesday's show,

so I'm forcing him to do it on Thursday's show. We are also doing a mock draft later today. I picked the least bold of all of them because I felt like we sort of talked about it. I'll give you all the rundown of what Jamie suggested, and then I'll tell you which one I picked. But we kind of talked about all the others in previous shows. We're also going to look at two of Jamie's sleepers, two of his breakouts, two of his busts. This was done before the NFL draft.

We'll see if anything has changed. And, you know, we did a similar thing a few weeks ago, but I've picked, obviously, different sleepers, breakouts, and busts. Dave, I understand you've been watching a lot of New York Giants film. How's that going? That's right. I was intrigued when Mike Shula made a comment to the media this week about how he sees his receivers as interchangeable. And Shepard and Tate, we know these guys to be slot receivers over the course of their careers. And now they're apparently going to mix and match.

So that got me to thinking I could do a little bit of research just to see how well they did. And I've got some numbers that lead me to believe that one will play in the slot more often than the other, like way more. Yeah, I mean, Tate. Tate is their slot guy. He better be. That's where he was at his best in Detroit. Everybody knows that.

When he played out wide, even in Detroit, the results were not that great. Whereas Shepard, when he played out wide last year, both with Odell and without Odell, great receiving average, and he kind of looks the part. I know that he's done great running out of the slot, but he's got good speed, real good hands.

His routes were crisp. Had a bunch of downfield throws. Some of them were his doing. One time a defensive back fell down, whatever. I think he's going to end up being their most targeted wide receiver. Maybe not necessarily their most targeted player, but he'll line up outside and might have a good receiving average on top of it. So who do you like better? I'm leaning towards Shepard at this point. Jamie, who do you like better?

Which is not reflected in my rankings, so I've got some changes to make. I'll take Tate. Okay, I thought you guys were going to say Tate PPR, Shepard non-PPR. What did it feel like to be me for however long you were watching all these Giants games? I smelled so bad because I hadn't showered.

Yeah, that is a tough one. Tough to deal with sometimes. Alright, Jamie's bold prediction. So here were the options. One, Gronk plays. We actually have an email about that later. I did not choose Gronk plays. Jameis Winston finishes as a top five quarterback.

Leonard Fournette, a top five running back. Geronimo Allison, a top 20 wide receiver. Cooper Cup is the best Rams wide receiver. I picked Cooper Cup as the best Rams wide receiver. I picked Cooper Cup as the best Rams wide receiver. That's the least bold one of them all. I said it, but we've talked about I think Winston and Fournette we did during the previous Sleepers Breakout show

and Geronimo Allison I feel like is the new drinking game. We drink every time we talk about him. So Cooper Cup is the best Rams wide receiver and take it away, Jamie. I mean, just look at the numbers he was putting up last year before the injury. You know, you take that over 16 games, he would have scored 16 touchdowns.

I think like 1,400 yards, if I'm not mistaken. No, no. He had eight touchdowns last year? Did he? Well, he played six games healthy. Okay, I had him at seven games healthy. No, he played six healthy games. He caught five touchdowns in six games healthy. Okay. I had him at seven games healthy. No, he played six healthy games. He caught five touchdowns in six healthy games.

You guys are crazy. I've got him at eight games. Eight games, but healthy games. He played eight games. Yes. But he played one of them unhealthy, so he threw it out. He left two of them. I see.

Okay. And I know he left one of them, the Broncos game, where he had zero catches on one target after only playing 38% of the snaps. So I took it as seven games out of eight, and then I did a 16-game sample, a 16-game proration. I don't know if that's a word. Anyway, I cut you off. Go ahead.

My bad. I was trying to find the numbers here. I've got a number if you want me to spew it out while you're looking for your numbers 14 nope 283 just kidding the number is six cooper cup was top six in consistency last year uh sixth in leagues where it's 10 points consistency and if you're looking for 12 or more points uh he was second he was awesome a touchdown machine. He gave you solid numbers every single week, including one week with 15, one week with 28. The ACL really, really stunk.

Heard a lot of people that had Cooper Cup on their teams, and if he can come back from it as good as new, a couple weeks of practice under his belt, again, this is the least of the bold predictions As good as new? A couple weeks of practice under his belt? Again, this is the least of the bold predictions Jamie gave because I think it's a slam dunk that he'll be the best fantasy receiver. A slam dunk? Slam dunk. Wow. It's not a slam dunk, but I think you look at he averaged 7.8 targets per game.

So if you take the six games over a 16-game pace, he would have finished with 93 catches, 1,405 yards, and 16 touchdowns. All right, can I nitpick here? Because I've got the one game that I know we probably shouldn't count. That was the Broncos. He left the Denver game and the Seattle game where he tore his ACL. So how much did he play in the Seattle game? Because he put up good numbers, five catches for 39 yards on eight targets.

Like, I counted that game. That's an eight-target game, you know? So I feel like that should be part of the... I'll look up the snapchat. It's however you want to... Sure, nitpick it. That's fine. If we count that game, he was on pace for 90-something catches and 1,200

yards. By the way, both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods had 80-86 catches and right around 1,200 yards. Obviously, they played half the season without Cooper Cup, but what I really love is that Cooper Cup had 12 red zone targets in

six, seven games. He did go back last year, too. His first two years. Who led the team in red zone targets last year was actually Todd Gurley with 19, but Cup would have led the team in red zone. They love him near the end zone. Okay, there we go.

Cooper Cup. He will give you the best value probably because he's the last to go, but he does go sort of back-to-back very close to Brandon Cooks. So the bold prediction that he was going to be the best receiver on the Rams for fantasy, could we go bolder? Could we say that he could finish as a top 15 fantasy receiver, top 12 fantasy receiver? If he stays healthy on the consistency rate that he had last year, he'd be on fire. Yeah, he'd be a top five receiver.

I think he'd cakewalk his way to the top 12. And, yeah, to Jamie's point, going back to 2017, he was third in the NFL in red zone targets. So that's awesome. Makes me love him more. Hopefully he's there for training camp. I know there's talk that he might not be ready for it. No, they said all along that he's going to be fine.

All right. Let's see you there, Cooper. Okay. Want to promote Sportsline. Sportsline is a really cool website. A lot of data-driven stuff and just gambling experts. A big staff of people, too, and fantasy writers. Some best ball content you might see on Sportsline.

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to get your first month of picks for only $1. Promo code is SWING $1 for your first month on Sportsline. That's only $9.99 after that. Email of the day. Boy, we're getting a lot of Dynasty emails lately, and that is awesome. This is from The Beast from

Joe Flacco Country. Got some options there. Where do you think Joe Flacco Country. Got some options there. Where do you think Joe Flacco Country is? Delaware. Yeah. Denver. I don't think it's Denver. That's definitely not Joe Flacco Country.

It is now. It's Denver or Baltimore. It's Delaware or Baltimore. I'll take Baltimore. Listening to your earlier episode, I'm listening to Dave and Heath discuss their trade in the rookie-only dynasty draft. I'm the commissioner of my dynasty league, and I hold my rookie draft right before the season starts,

so we have time to see the rookies play in the preseason and make a better informed decision. What would be the advantage of doing the rookie-only draft now, so far before the season starts? To do a draft now? I mean, obviously, that makes more sense. Which does. His way makes more sense. But at the same time, the idea of a dynasty league is to plan throughout the offseason. So NFL teams are another luxury of,

let's do more tryouts. I guess, but wouldn't it be like holding the NFL draft before the Combine? They've talked like holding the NFL draft before the combine? They've talked about doing the NFL draft right after the combine. No, before the combine. No, that doesn't make any sense. Of course, but that's what I'm saying. It's like doing a dynasty rookie-only draft before preseason.

No, wait a minute. We have the benefit of seeing the combine, and not to mention watching all the guys playing college. No, but okay. We have the benefit of seeing the combine and not to mention watching all the guys play in college. No. But, okay, the NFL obviously has the ability to see players play in college. Then they have the combine, which is their key to evaluating the prospects and pro days and all that. And then they draft. If we did a dynasty draft before the preseason, that would be like the NFL doing the draft,

the NFL draft before the combine. See the analogy there? It's like any draft. Anybody's going to do it whenever they feel the most comfortable. This, like I said,

makes more sense to do it as close to the season as you can. But, you know, I think the fun of dynasty leagues is to hold these drafts right after the NFL draft happens because it works both ways.

Look, you're going to get situations where Alvin Camara gets drafted in the second round or the third round of a rookie draft because nobody's expecting him to be great because he's the third guy on the team. Yeah. Is it too complicated to have one round after the NFL draft one one round in mid-June, and then the rest of your rookie draft right before the season starts? No, that's interesting.

I mean, look, you do it any way you want to. When we first did this league, we did three drafts because we were trying to make sure everybody was covered. I love how Jamie dropped a... Boring! That was awesome. I made a trade in our Dynasty League that I think you'd like, Adam. Oh, okay.

So I moved up three spots in the third round and traded next year's third round pick for Bryce Love. I, Bryce Love it. I figured you would. Yeah. And it's funny because I made the trill with Will Brinson. And so he's like, you know, huh? Did you say trill? trill with Will Brinson. And so he's like, you know, huh? Did you say trill?

No. Trill Brinson? I think you said I made the trill with Will. Did I? Yeah, I think so. I made the trade with Will Brinson. Yeah. And he said, you know, I think I'm just going to stay here. Bryce Love's been on the board way too long.

And I didn't say anything to him. Well, first I offered him to swap, to move up three picks and six rounds. We go six rounds because it's IDP. So I said, I'll give you my third and sixth round pick. He said, nah. I said, okay, third and fifth. Maybe. I said, third and fourth.

Okay. He said, I think I'm just going to stay here and take Bryce Love. I said, fine, third and third next year. So he goes, you really want Bryce Love? I said, no, there's somebody else. Oh, you lied. That's awesome. Good for you.

How did he react after you took Bryce Love? He said, you're the worst liar. Here's some news and notes. I was happy about it. Cam Newton said his shoulder's feeling good. I guess we'll certainly find out. But, you know, they drafted Will Greer. And he had the shoulder issue last year.

He says it's feeling good. So knock on wood. Well, you knew that he would now. Yeah. A.J. Green expects to be ready for training camp. You just got that? No, I got it. But I couldn't place it.

And so as I was reading the A.J. Green sentence, I got it, but I couldn't place it. And so as I was reading the A.J. Green sentence, I knew that he would. Oh, I got you. Okay. A.J. Green expects to be ready for training camp after December toe surgery. Seattle agreed to a deal with Ziggy Ansah. He may not be ready for the start of the season, though. They need a pass rusher.

Martavis Bryant will apply for reinstatement soon. Does this have any fantasy effect, guys? It may be nice if he plays for his sake and serve for the Raiders, but no. He'll have one or two really nice plays in 2019 if he gets reinstated. Jason Pierre-Paul may miss the season with a fractured neck after his car accident, so we're hoping for the best. The Patriots are going to sign offensive tackle Jared Veldier, who will probably be an all-pro with them. season with a fractured neck after his car accident, so we're hoping for the best. The Patriots are going to sign offensive tackle Jared Veldier, who will probably be an all-pro with them.

That's a joke, but they always get the best out of their guys. They're about to get their tight end, too. Who? Benjamin Watson. They're going to sign Ben Watson? Well, he visited there. A little reunion tour for him. Look, it's springtime in New England.

Well, he's apparently not going to retire. Okay. Dallas center Travis Frederick looks good, according to coach Jason Garrett. That's great. Philadelphia rookie wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside may not play much as a rookie, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia.

I guess we'll see what happens with Nelson Aguilar. We have a draft coming up today, and we'll let you know next week where all these rookies go. Sean McVay said he overprepared for the Super Bowl. And people were really giving him a lot of flack on Twitter, making jokes like, I studied too hard but I get it he said he watched too much film and you know

I understand what he was trying to say I think yeah it's just it's one of those things that the headline looks worse than what the comments are and I also think you know, the Rams obviously didn't do very well

offensively in that game. It was 3-3 going into the fourth quarter. And then they had that play that should have been a pass interference. Yeah, and also Jared Cook missed Brandon Cook's wide open in the end zone. Wait, which? That was not the one

that was supposed to be pass interference? God, that game was so boring. I've blocked it out of my memory. And apparently Atlanta was shopping Mohamed Sanu. That's according to former GM Michael Lombardi. But now they are keeping him. They should. They might have the best receiving core in the NFL.

Let's challenge that. Who has the best... Oh, okay, the Rams. Rams are better. Not many factor in the tight end, though. Let's go top three receiving Corps in the NFL Giants

Rams Redskins Redskins are one Not close How about the Texans Would they rank up there Texans are good Do running backs count in this

I'd say no I like the Texans are good. Do running backs count in this? I'd say no. No. No. Okay, I like the Texans. Cleveland? Yeah, Cleveland. Yeah, Cleveland. How about Detroit?

We're going to do a segment on CBS Sports HQ on Monday. Pick up your water, Adam. Pete Prisco's doing his 10 NFL breakout candidates. So not fantasy related. And I was talking to him about it today. And he thinks Antonio Callaway is going to score nine touchdowns for the browns no i said i said so he's telling me his list i go hey all right so stop on cali for a second where the targets come from he's like he's going to get you know uh third or fourth in terms of targets but he says he's going to average over

17 yards per catch and score nine touchdowns. I go, wow! Baker Mayfield is going to have a monster season. I like the yards per catch. He might go higher than that, but I'm not thinking nine. Four? Maybe five if you want to be generous. Okay, I got the Rams, the Browns,

the Falcons we'll put up on that list. Who else did we say? Oh, the Vikings, I think, are an easy one. The Lions, maybe. But the Vikings just have the two guys. Yeah, they're pretty good. We'll see if Irv Smith...

I don't think they'd win. We'll see if Irv Smith is good. They drafted tight end early. We're including tight ends. Yeah, but not running backs. Well, if Tyreek Hill plays, doesn't Kansas City register then? Wouldn't Philadelphia also?

No. I don't think they're going to make the top three. That's true. Arcega-Whiteside's not going to play much as a rookie. I just heard that somewhere. Colts? Oh, Houston. I don't know somewhere. Colts? Oh, Houston. I don't know about the Colts.

Yeah, the Colts. All right, so my top three would be the Rams, the Browns. Really tough. I think the Chargers may have a case, too. But I won't put... The Texans. The Texans. No, I'd take the Falcons over the Texans. Why?

Especially when you factor Hooper. Yeah, but I like Hopkins better than Julio, and I like Fuller better than Calvin. I don't think a lot of people like Fuller better than Calvin, though. No. I think I'd go Atlanta. Cleveland might be next for me. God, I can't believe Cleveland's receiving corps is good enough to put in this conversation. Absolutely.

Cleveland might be one. Yeah, they might be one. LA's got to be up there, too. I had the Rams one, but I think the Browns should be one, now that I'm thinking about it. Yeah, with Ned Jokovic. Yeah. And Callaway with his nine touchdowns. Okay, and I like Fuller better on a per-game basis than Calvin Ridley, but in drafts, you know he's not playing 16 games.

I get it. All right, sleepers, breakouts, and busts. We'll take a quick break on fantasy football today. When we come back, yeah, Jimmy Garoppolo. No, Le'Veon Bell, maybe. All right, we'll talk about that. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM,

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Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario Helpline at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Jamie's Sleepers, Jamie's Breakouts, Jamie's Busts. There's a whole column about it.

It was before the NFL draft, so we'll find out what's changed. But your two sleepers that I wanted to highlight were Jimmy Garoppolo and Ito Smith. And I can't imagine Garoppolo's no longer on this list after they drafted two wide receivers early. Yeah, I don't know why there's not more Garoppolo buzz right now. Just got to stay healthy. That's

the big thing. I saw this somewhere, if I have it correctly, that Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen all played more games so far in their NFL careers than Jimmy Garoppolo. That is interesting. Health has been an issue for him. Remember when he had the chance to play the four games for Tom Brady when he was suspended for deflategate,

he only played in two and a half of those. So he had the shoulder injury there, had the ACL last season. There's a ton of upside. You look at what the offense produced between the three quarterbacks in San Francisco last season. There's a ton of upside. You know, you look at what the offense produced between the three quarterbacks in San Francisco last season. I believe it was nine games with 20 or more fantasy points between the three of them. Okay.

Garoppolo had two of them. Maybe more than that. Garoppolo had two with 20 plus. Yeah. And then, you know. In three games. In three games. In three games, yeah. And then I think Beathard had two, and Mullins, I think, had two.

It can't be that, more than that. Well, look, Nick Mullins didn't throw a lot of touchdowns, but he had the seventh most passing yards per game and the fifth most yards per attempt, minimum 200 pass attempts. Like Garoppolo is going to just tear it up. Yeah, Mullins had four games with 20-plus. Garoppolo had two, and then I think it's...

They combined for seven between Beathard and Mullins, so it was nine total between the three guys. So where do you have Garoppolo ranked? Too low, but it's because the quarterback position is very deep you know and that's part of the problem is like you know when you start to get past i think what will probably be a consensus 10 once we get to adp and it starts to register and i think you see the the the you may want to stretch it out to 12, but it's like what's better? Who has more upside, Garoppolo or Roethlisberger?

Garoppolo or Brady? Rivers versus Garoppolo? Prescott versus Garoppolo? Kyler Murray? There's just a slew of guys that I think you can make a case can all be top 12 and in some cases top 10 and maybe even top 5. So it's just, again, not to give away too much of our magazine, but you did something, Adam, which I think a lot of people are going to end up doing

with certain quarterbacks, and the one you did it with was Cam Newton. You drafted Cam, and then you drafted Garoppolo. And we're doing this article, which we do every year. We're expanding it a little bit where I ask all of the people in the draft to, you know, something about their team or their strategy, and the question posed to you was, do you feel like you needed to get a second quarterback with Cam Newton? I won't answer for you, but I think that's a good pairing of getting two guys that could be complete superstars or two guys that may not play 16 games, maybe combined, you know,

just based on what injuries they're coming off of or in Cam's case, still dealing with. So, you know, I think Garoppolo is one of those guys you absolutely take a chance on if you're so inclined to take two quarterbacks. And it would not be a shock if he is a top 12 guy by the end of the year. In 2017, he made five starts. In four of those starts, Garoppolo threw for 292 or more yards. He completed 67.4% of his passes. In the one game where he didn't throw for 292 or more yards. He completed 67.4% of his passes. In the one game where he didn't throw for 292 or more yards, it was Jacksonville. We know how good their defense was that year.

And he actually had a very good game. He had a rushing touchdown against Jacksonville. He beat them, I believe. Yeah, yeah, because they couldn't play on the West Coast. And he had 25 fantasy points in that game. Fantasy points weren't there because the touchdowns weren't really there. But I think that's pretty fluky. I like to see the yards

and just how good he was as a passer. He was really good in two of three games last year after a bad start at Minnesota. You have Ido Smith as another sleeper. Did that change after the NFL draft? No, not at all. They drafted a running back, but I don't think that's going to crack the top

two, barring health. Just given the investment that they made in their offensive line, two guys in the first round, two guys in free agency, it's a rebuild offensive line that should be better, an offense that should continue to be explosive. You know, Smith didn't show a ton last year, clearly. But the biggest thing I think that's working in his favor is Devontae Freeman's had a hard time staying healthy. You know, so Freeman only played two games last year. He was banged up the year before with the knee and the concussions.

And so if he goes down and then Smith is thrust into the Tevin Coleman role, and even if he doesn't go down, Coleman has been very productive three years in a row with at least 900 total yards and eight touchdowns. So they're going to use both guys. You know that's the way that the Falcons operate, no matter who the offense coordinator has been. From Shanahan to Sarkeesian,

I think you'll see the same thing out of Dirk Cutter. So I think Ido Smith is just one of those guys you should absolutely target with a mid-round pick. You'd rather have him as your fourth running back than your third, but easily somebody that can be productive for you throughout the course of the season. It's more about opportunity than it is talent, too. Because I don't know. He averaged like three and a half yards per carry last year.

He really just doesn't have a half yards per carry last year. He really just doesn't have a lot of speed to him, but if he's getting volume in that offense, absolutely you'd want to have that on your team. And I agree with Jamie. I think that there's going to be a lot of games where you're going to see him get seven to ten touches with Devontae Freeman healthy. I think the Falcons know that they can't lean too heavily on Freeman at this point.

So Ido Smith was a fourth-round pick in 2018. They took Kadri Olesen out of Pittsburgh in the fifth round this year. But it looks like Olesen was 152nd overall, and Smith was 126th overall. Not a huge difference there in terms of draft capital, maybe what to expect. I'm seeing him at 5'9", 195. Oleson is 6'1", 228. In the event that Devontae Freeman misses time, is it possible that Oleson would be the primary ball carrier

and Ido Smith would stay in a complementary role? Absolutely. We'll have to see how this all shakes out. But for right now, based on what Dan Quinn told me when I sat with him at the owner's meeting, based on what he said at the combine, they are seemingly in the Ido Smith camp. Now, that was before the NFL draft, so who knows what's changed. But they seem to be Freeman 1, Smith 2, and then we'll see what shakes out at 3.

And they also like Brian Leonard. That's one thing Quinn told me. In 2016 and 17, Devontae Freeman did stay pretty healthy. He was a top five running back in 2016. He was a top 13 running back in 2017. He played 14 games, really more like 13. He got hurt early in one game. Tevin Coleman finished those years as top 22 running back.

So that was as a mostly complementary role now listen a lot of that was in 2017 at least when freeman got hurt coleman came in it was great but that's part of the sleeper appeal for edo smith sure and just for full disclosure they also have kenyan barner on their roster right now jeremy lankford you guys remember him he's still there and uh brian hill running, is still there for them. So they've got six guys that they're going to go to camp with. You know that three of them are going to be Freeman, Ito, and Ollison. So the others are probably battling for once. But it'll be Barner, is my guess, is the fourth guy.

All right, breakouts. Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield. Let's talk about Chris Godwin first. And I understand the breakout appeal. I wonder, though, do you think he's going too early? Because I think we're starting to see him around, like, 40th overall, in between 40 and 50 for Chris Godwin. 40 would be the high end.

But middle of round four in a 12-team league, I'm starting to see he gets in my queue. Somebody might take him. Is there going to be too much hype on Godwin? Yes. Unfortunately. I think it's going to be warranted. Where's the sweet spot for him? Fifth round.

I guess it depends on format, too. PPR, the receivers will get pushed up. Do you have any concerns, or do you just think this is just like a natural, we got rid of Deshaun Jackson, we got rid of Adam Humphreys, he's going to fill that role? He's a typical

slot receiver for Bruce Arians. A bigger guy. Doesn't necessarily run to the level of a burner, but runs enough. Good red zone threat. You've seen the numbers when Deshaun Jackson hasn't been there. That's the exciting part of it, what the offense should be in terms of explosiveness with Ariant.

And it may take a step back even, which is not necessarily a bad thing because they were so good throwing the ball last season with Todd Mocken. But I just think there's targets to be had. You lose Humphreys, you lose Jackson. Hopefully Howard's healthy, but that's been a hard thing for him to do, to stay on the field for the last two seasons. And I think Jameis Winston's going to lean on that spot. So I'm very excited about Chris Godwin entering his third year in the NFL.

Godwin or Cup? They're close for me, but I think Cup's got a little bit more upside. It's just a matter of how healthy you are. I've got Godwin higher for now because of the health. Godwin or Sammy Watkins, if you were drafting right now. It's very similar. I would take Godwin first, but Sammy Watkins, again, if there's no Tyree Kill, is expected, and he does play 16 games.

If you look at Sammy Watkins' numbers last season, Watkins, again, to tease our magazine, Watkins is a breakout candidate in the magazine version of the story. If you look at Watkins' numbers, he would have over 16 games, which he's only done once. But if you do project his numbers over 16 games, last year he would have put up exactly what Odell Beckham did, almost to the number. But Beckham in 12 games. And Beckham did 12 games. Yeah.

Like, yeah, Watkins was good in his own right, even with Tyreek Hill. Sure. He wasn't great, but he was very good. Yep. All right, so that brings us, you know, speaking speaking of Beckham let's go to Baker Mayfield I I try to find reasons not because I don't believe it because I I need to be able to bring up the other side of the story if there is one I don't know where I don't know what to say about Mayfield, like from a negative standpoint, what could go wrong for Mayfield? Like, why wouldn't he break out?

Statistically, it could be the run game in the red zone. Touchdowns aren't there for him. But yeah, you know, and, and, and just maybe in fighting Beckham and Landry fighting for the ball, you know, seem to be the case because they seem to really genuinely have a strong friendship. So I can't imagine that targets would become a problem for them unless it goes a significant stretch for just one guy getting the ball too much. But yeah, we just talked about it. Best receiving core in the NFL, at least in the conversation. He was exceptional as a rookie last year. As a matter of fact, a friend of mine is in the middle of a dynasty draft right now,

wanted to offer, I said no, he was giving me pushback, but wanted to offer Aaron Jones a third round pick and a fourth round pick for Baker. And my argument is that... In a startup draft? No. So the third and fourth picks were rookie picks? Rookie only.

So third and fourth rookie draft picks. Third round and fourth round. Aaron Jones for Baker Mayfield. His current quarterback is Trubisky. I felt like that's giving up too much because what we see from quarterbacks, like I said to him... You'd rather have the Aaron Jones side, right?

Yes. I said next year will be Tua. The year after that will be Lawrence. The year after that will be whoever the next guy is. You know, you can probably get a veteran guy that you can get cheap that may complement Trubisky, maybe better than Trubisky, that you don't have to give up so much for it. So it's all a matter of what your preference is. But, you know, look, Baker could be the number one quarterback

in fantasy for the next five years. I don't think that will happen, but it's not a stretch. I did find one stat, just to be like, here's the downside. They played eight games with Freddie Kitchens as the coach. They went five and three. In the five wins, Baker Mayfield attempted 27.2 passes per game and threw for 232 passes per game and threw for 237 yards per game.

Not very good. Like the ratio is good, you know, but not a lot of production, not a lot of volume. I mean, those games, did Odell Beckham play? He averaged almost three touchdowns per game in those wins. Yes, I know. In the three losses, he threw 42 passes per game and averaged 323 yards per game in those wins. Yes, I know. In the three losses, he threw 42 passes per game and averaged 323 yards per game.

So if you are a person who believes touchdowns are fluky, and you just want to look at pass attempts and yards, they didn't throw the ball very much when they were winning. Is that going to be... And again, I'm not really... I don't buy that this is what's actually going to happen. So it's just conversation during the offseason. You're being the devil.

Yes. You're being an advocate for him. You're the advocate for him. I'm the advocate. Is that going to be their philosophy where they just try to – if they're going to win some games, they're just going to try to get ahead and pound the ball and not throw the ball that much?

That's – it could happen. It's certainly going to be the case for some games. You know, that's just the NFL. Yeah. But you're hoping for one of the best receivers in the NFL being dropped in his lap while still having very good complementary options. I think really one of my biggest concerns

is the offensive line going to be as good. Valid concern, definitely. You know, so you lose Leit Valid concern. Definitely. So you lose Lightler, new, new left tackle. So there, there's things that you could just look at and say, same, I'll say, excuse me, but it's Greg Robbins, right? I apologize. Um, you were wishing is, is, is, uh, is that going to have any bearing on, on what it is? But I, I still think, and again, you know, uh uh just to kind of look at the godwin situation one guy we just mentioned they now have todd monken so you have another voice

in that room who loves downfield throws loves explosive plays and you know that should only enhance what freddie kitchen does i'll give you a negative turn. I think he'll throw a bunch of interceptions. He had 14 in 14 games last year. But that's a rookie, though. I know. And it's, again, a receiving core without a well-groomed stud receiver like Odell Beckham. He's a bit of a gambler.

He's a bit of a gambler. Yeah. It would be surprising if he finished the year with 16 turnovers. It's not enough to deter you from taking him. I'm just saying that it's a little bit of a strike against him. I wonder if people are going to like Baker Mayfield. It's cute now, but once he becomes one of the faces of the NFL and he starts doing some of his antics and the media coverage is going to change,

it's going to be more negative, I think. I wonder how people are going to feel about him. I don't know if it's going to turn out that way. It'll be a lightning rod. You saw some things with Beckham's outfit at the Met Gala. How do you say it? Gala. Gala.

What the hell is the Met Gala? I saw one tweet that the Browns are no longer the Browns, because now they're the style points and all those things. Yeah, now they're the Met Gala with a cut-off sleeve tuxedo. Busts. I have a random question. I'll ask it after we do the bust. People want to hear about football.

But then a sports question to think about. Alright, we got Chris Carson and Le'Veon Bell. So how about Carson first? Still a bust? Yeah. What I did with the bust was I went off of fantasy pros and where the consensus ranking is because once we get to the draft season,

I'll use ADP because I think that's a little bit more relevant. But Carson's still being ranked inside the top 20 in running backs. I think you're going to get more rashad penny um that's going to be a big factor for him and i think the offense is going to struggle a little bit you know this is this is a receiving core that's that's changing uh you know hopefully um you have uh you know healthy will disley but the tight end isn't it isn't very attractive tyler lockett still has to prove to me he's more than just a downfield threat that he can be be a complete receiver, especially now that he's going to be the number one guy. And I think that's definitely the case with DJ Metcalf. So, you know, everybody knows Seattle

wants to run the ball. You still have to stop them. But if he's not getting the same amount of touches and same amount of carries, I think he's going to be a little bit overdrafted. They are talking like they want to be more aggressive downfield. And the whole motivation for them to draft DK Metcalf was so that they had another option besides Tyler Lockett to push the ball with it's almost like they're realizing that they've got an all-pro quarterback and they want to do more than just let him hand off to the running back which is kind of refreshing I'd love to see it come into fruition I don't know if I'm buying it so fast uh first nine games of the year how many double digit fantasy point games did chris carson have

oh uh three three is correct hey go go me now the last seven games how many did he have six six is correct you look this i swear i'm just totally guessing yeah i, I'm on fire. He had an amazing finish to last year. Penny, for what it's worth, didn't play much or at all the last few games. Although if you look at his stats, you'd think he didn't really play at all except for one game.

We know Mike Davis isn't there anymore. I kind of like Chris Carson. I think the coaches know what they have in him. I think he's proved that he's capable of being the main back. I know for a fact that Rashad Penny, unless he flubs training camp again, is going to get a decent chunk of the work.

I think if you're drafting Carson, this goes back to what Jamie really started with, which is where are you drafting him? And if you're getting him... Is he a top 20 running back for you, Dave? Yes. Okay. But it's with the caveat that maybe late round

four, round five, that's where you're going to feel... He's not a round three pick despite being a top 20 running back. Alright, so Le'Veon Bell is the last bust we'll talk about, and he is RB10 right now on the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings. I believe he is 12th overall.

So as a borderline first-round pick, why are you nervous about Le'Veon Bell, I guess, with that value? As a first-round pick? Yeah, first, early second. I just worry about a guy taking a year off in a different offense that is not going to be as dominant as the one he was in. I mean, he had one of the best offensive lines during that stretch. Hall of Fame quarterback.

Tremendous receiving core. I mean, think about the Steelers receiving core when we're having that conversation. Where would they rank if Brown is still there? One. One. Yeah. So, look, I like what the jets have done that you know they they've enhanced their offensive line darnold should be better in the second year the receiving core slight upgrade but still better with jameson crowder joining that group um hopefully herndon takes uh the next step

but and adam gaze you know i think will be a competent play caller but it's still is bell going to have the one thing that makes me nervous about bell is they did not use him in the goal line situations like most top tier backs have been used in pittsburgh and even last year was an indication of that they gave connor all those those touchdown chances they just didn't do it with levy on bell whatever it is yep so can he score 10 plus touchdowns maybe but will he stay healthy for 16 games? The fact that he didn't show up already for voluntary workouts, for whatever reason, why not?

I just don't want to take a chance on somebody that seems to be motivated more by money than what his production should be on the field. I could understand that. I would say that he probably didn't really have a top receiving core because when Le'Veon Bell was there, they never had two guys for a

full season. They did have Juju the first year, but he wasn't Juju at that point. Last year was the best receiving core, I think, in the Pittsburgh Steel or Le'Veon Bell era, and of course he didn't play. At least off the top of my head. Well, but in terms of production versus talent,

that's a different conversation. The talent on the field around him has always been exceptional. Yeah, but like Martavis Bryant was an exceptional talent. Did he ever play more than eight games? Did Martavis ever play more than eight games with Le'Veon Bell? But did Le'Veon ever play 16? I mean, you know, it's just a matter of what the guys around him were doing and threatening.

Well, I just wonder if it's like, okay, he doesn't have as much talent, there's more eyeballs on him now, or he doesn't have much talent, like who else are they going to throw to? He should catch at least 80. He could catch 100 balls. He could? I don't think he will. That's a high number.

But I think he should catch 80 passes. Do you? If he's healthy for a full season, he's going to have an opportunity to put up big numbers. I am all over the map on Le'Veon Bell. I go back and forth on him. The thing that I'm most concerned about is offensive line. It's not even close to being as good as what he had in Pittsburgh.

And the quarterback's not as good. Quarterback is obviously not as good, but I don't know how big of a detriment Sam Darnold is. This isn't like if he was going to Miami, where it's Josh Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick, and you go, oh crap, it's going to be stacked boxes play after play. Is Robbie Anderson going to be a big enough threat to take the top off and force the safeties to play back every play?

I don't know if I'm buying that. I don't think Jamison Crowder will help that either. And the other issue that I have is I just don't trust Adam Gase. Yeah. And he's already talked about how well we need to be smart about how we use Le'Veon Bell. They got to load him up. And I think that if they load him up and they give him six catches a game and 16 carries a game, that's the only way that he will get to the types of numbers that he had before.

There's one more. But we're not drafting him to get there. And this is where it comes into my third issue. Who are you taking ahead of him in late round one? You can make a case for a ton of players, but who are you taking ahead of him that you are very confident will outperform and be less of a headache than Le'Veon Bell? I don't know if it's outperform, but who I feel more confident in.

I would take Joe Mixon over him. I would take James Conner over him. I would take four or five receivers for sure over him. See that the receivers, I think that's when it becomes a tougher issue because I feel like I feel like going Connor Mixon and then Bell and then Nick Chubb makes sense. You know, if Kareem Hunt weren't lingering, then you'd probably take Chubb over Bell, too. But the way the Fantasy Pros rankings go right now, it's Todd Gurley, James Conner, Joe Mixon, Le'Veon Bell, three wide receivers, a tight end, and Nick Chubb. So I do think that a lot of people are going to be sitting there late in round one going, do I want Le'Veon Bell or are the receivers looking better right now?

That's going to be a tough call. Sure. And we've talked about this forever. When you pick it, maybe as early as nine, but 10, 11, 12, and you see seven or eight guys you know that you want or feel comfortable with, you take the one you don't think is going to come back to you. Yeah. And if you are inclined to take Bell at 14 or 15, then you take him in round one I'm not going to be surprised if he goes in round one and I'm not going to tell anybody not to take him in round one if that's what you want to do

Bell or Gurley? Right now, Bell Gurley's going to have to fall a little bit in the consensus rankings Alright, those are some sleepers, breakouts, and busts Sports question I'm at a Sorry, if you listened to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, you already heard this story.

Fast forward. I'm at the Yankees game last night with three other Yankees fans, losing 5-0. Yusei Kikuchi has a no-hitter in the sixth inning, I believe. And I asked them, would you rather see him throw a no-hitter or have the Yankees come back and win?

I was the only one that said no-hitter. You're so... What? That's your team. I was at the game. If I was watching on TV, I'd rather them come back and win, but I was at the game. I've never seen a no-hitter. I never will see a no-hitter, probably.

Yes, you will. I doubt it. I've seen a perfect game. I've seen a no-hitter. You've seen a perfect game, what, in Ronan's T-ball? No, Roy Holiday. You were there? I saw Nolan Ryan's sixth no-hitter.

Did you really? Well, what the hell? Well, if you didn't see those, don't I deserve a no-hitter or a perfect game? Do you really want to see Kiki T throw a no-hitter? Honestly, on May 8th, you would have said

you'd rather have your team come back and win rather than witness history? Yes. I don't have a problem with your answer. If I'm there, of course I want to see

my team win. Timing matters so much in these things. If it's September and your team needs a win to help keep pace If it's September and your team needs a win,

you could have had the win in May when you came back and beat the Kiki Ute with a no-hitter. Kikuchi. But it was 5-0. You're resigned to the fact that you're going to lose in May when he came back and beat Kiki Kuti with a no hitter. Kikuchi. But it was 5-0. Like, you're resigned to the fact that you're going to lose the game. The Yankees in Yankee Stadium.

They're not really the Yankees. They're like the Giovanni Urshela, Cameron Maybin Yankees. Not when Lo Saiga's pitching. Lo Saiga. Loser. Lo Saiga versus Kiki Kuti last night, apparently. We chose poorly. But I think that I think that being at the game

is more reason to root for the no-hitter. Like, it's easy to say, come back and win when you're at home. Sure, but you're not doing that until, like, the eighth inning at the absolute earliest. No, once it was 5-0 in the sixth inning, I said, I gotta tell you,

I'm rooting for the no-hitter. And, of course, it got broken up because you know how I operate. Kaibosh. No mush. Yeah, I have the mush. You've seen because you know how I operate. A kibosh. A mush. Yeah, a mush. You've seen A Bronx Tale, I assume. Mm-hmm.

Would you see the Broadway show? Where's this podcast going? Last thing. I mean, Chaz Palminteri's in it, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, he's amazing. Last thing before I read emails. I want to know where it's going.

That scene when they close the door in the bars. Yeah, it's pretty cool, but I really don't think they would have won that fight. I feel like the bikers would have kicked the crap out of them. No, they were probably armed, though. Who? Well, they all were armed, I think. Yeah. So.

That usually wins most fights. Are your kids going to go see the Pokemon movie? Mine, no. Where is this podcast going? My friend going my friend's going may 9th my friend wrote the pokemon movie um really yeah very early reviews have been very good my it's like my best friend i've known him yeah i know what you're talking about yeah i'm really like very proud of him he wrote all right so now we gotta go see it his His name is Dan Hernandez. Yes, go see it. You know what Pokemon you'd be, Adam.

I don't know any of the Pokemon except for Pikachu. You'd be Bonanza Dopa. This is from Andy in Seattle. Dear Ray, Rod, Jerry, and Dorothy. Romantic comedy, Jerry Maguire. My league recently voted to get rid of kickers, something I've been proposing for a couple of years, but instead of a super flex, we decided to go with IDP. Very high scoring, splash scoring, six point per sack, etc.

But we're only doing one IDP. So how would you approach it with only one IDP? Should I treat it like kickers and just stream week to week? You could stream. Yeah, that's an option. I'd want to know what tackles count for. I think you have enough. It's 12 teams, I'm assuming?

I don't know. Well, I mean, okay, so 10 to 14. If it's one IDP guy. There's going to be so many IDPs out there. Right. You should be able to have one stud, and then if that guy's not producing after maybe two weeks, you could decide to move on.

But there should be enough at your disposal. I'm in another magazine draft where we have to draft four IDP guys, and there are so many players that you just don't have to take those guys and draft them. I was so mad at myself because I took Aaron Donald and Luke Keekly in spots in the draft where I was like,

why? It didn't make sense. As great as those guys are, it pissed me off that I took them. But in this format, I actually think you should. Well should well okay i think that you could at least discuss it here go for the high end idp because you're only starting one they're going to make up a higher percentage of your fantasy points the question is how many elite ones are there if they're only like

if it's like tight end then then you should reach Darius Leonard led in our standard scoring. Darius Leonard led the way with 198 fantasy points. Corey Littleton, Rams linebacker, was number two last year. But stop there. Because in our in most draft,

most leagues, Corey Littleton was a free agent. Yeah. A lot of these guys were, but will you be able to identify those free agents? I don't know. You don't understand what I'm saying? You're only starting one, so if there are three or four truly elite IDPs,

maybe you reach them. To Dave's point, it's not just tackles. How heavy are sacks weighted? How heavy are interceptions weighted? Are they all six points? Well, I can't answer those questions. Maybe getting one of those stud linebackers or safeties would be the way to go. Or if sacks are, you know, rewarded heavily, that's where guys like Aaron Donald

come into play, and they're just huge. Yeah, but the thing about Donald is that he's huge because defensive tackles. He's good by himself, but defensive tackles so bad. Or defensive line. Usually. He stands out, but if you only need one. If you're only starting one IDP, it doesn't matter. It's different if you're starting

one at each position. Like one defensive lineman, one linebacker. That's the move that you make, Andy. You put one of those. You expand to three positions. One defensive lineman, one linebacker, and one defensive back. Because having just one IDP, you can go in a million different directions. Aaron Donald probably

does not need to be drafted. But not unless sacks are heavily weighted. Well, they are. They're six points. And he did have 20 and a half. I don't know. All right. But in our standard IDP scoring, he was like a top 20 player, top 15.

So Aaron Donald. But he was, I'm guessing, I'll tell you right now, the number one defensive lineman. I cannot imagine he wasn't, but by how much? Oh, by only half a point over J.J. Watt. And then by 17 points over to Neil Hunter. Next email. From Josh

in the Crossroads of America. Sounds like Omaha. Dear Carter, LeBeau, Kincheloe, and Newkirk. King? Who are they? Hogan's Heroes. When I was a kid, I tuned in thinking that it was going to be like a Hulk Hogan show,

like wrestling, and it wasn't. I was disappointed. I'm part of a CBS fantasy League that combines tight ends and wide receivers into one position. It's more or less a PPR league. Where would you rank Ertz, Kelsey, and the other elite tight ends in direct relation to wide receivers?

So you talked about this recently. Kelsey was what? The number eight receiver? I got it all for you. Kelsey was eight. I'm going to say non-PPR, then PPR. He was 8-9. Ertz was 13-11. Kittle was 12-14.

Ebron was 18-18. Jared Cook was 29-27. So they were all top 30. Three of them were top 15, Kelsey, Ertz, and Kittle, if you just compare them to wide receivers. Were there any other top 50 wide receivers slash tight ends at the tight end position? No in non-PPR, but in PPR, I'd have to do this again because I may have miscounted, but it seems like Austin Hooper, Kyle Rudolph, Trey Burton, and David Njoku were all top 50.

But none stood out except for Kelsey, Ertz-Kittle, top 15, Ebron 18th, and Jared Cook just inside the top 30 when you compare his fantasy points to wide receivers. I think if I saw it correctly, Ebron's 14 total touchdowns, third all-time for the position. Wow. And you had the two single-season receiving yard leaders at tight end last year, all time,

with Kittle and Kelsey. The question is, would you rank Kelsey, Ertz, and Kittle as top 15 tight ends again? Or, sorry, wide receivers? Yes. Yeah. Yeah, okay. Especially, you know...

Especially PPR. Kelsey with the potential lack of Tyreek Hill. You might be able to make an argument for Kelsey to be in the top 10. Yeah, he was last year. I don't see why he can't do it again. Okay. Scott in Nashville, home of the greatest draft of all time. Dear Steve, Eddie, Frank, and

Javon. Those sound like former Titans. Who's Frank? Wycheck. Okay. I joined a startup and Javon. Those sound like former Titans. Who's Frank? White Shack. Okay. I joined a startup dynasty league with a setup I've never experienced before. 32 teams deep

and we have two drafts. The first draft is taking your team. That consists of quarterback, DST, and kicker. The second draft is filling out your roster with RB, wide receiver, and kicker. The second draft is filling out your roster with RB, wide receiver, and tight end. So it's team? Who are some good teams to target

if I get an early pick in the team draft? Okay, so I think it's team quarterback, team DST, and team kicker. That's a good one. Which quarterback are you going to downgrade? Probably one. Why? Why would you downgrade? The Rams would probably be one. Why? Why would you downgrade the quarterbacks?

Because their defense is awesome. Their quarterback is very good. Their kicker could be the best. You get all three. I'm an idiot. I'm sorry. Everybody knows I'm an idiot, but now it's confirmed. So, yeah, it's the quarterback, DST, and the kicker.

Take the Rams, quarterback, kicker, DST unit over... Of course. Who's your number one QB? Is it Aaron Rodgers? I'd take it over Green Bay's unit. You're weighing DST and kicker DST unit over... Of course. Who's your number one QB? Is it Aaron Rodgers? I'd take it over Green Bay's unit. You're weighing DST and kicker that much. But I think it's the whole thing. Well, of course, ideally.

I mean, Goff was a top six quarterback last year, so it's not like he's awful. It's Houston. No, it's not Houston. It's not Houston. No, but Cleveland... Houston would be a great one. Cleveland's defense should be better.

We'll see about the kicker. I think Indy's defense could be better. Indy's got the kicker. I think Indy's defense could be better. They've got a pretty good kicker. Indy's absolutely in the conversation, sure. Kansas City made a lot of improvements to their defense. They did? They got Frank Clark. And they lost Dee Ford. Frank Clark is better than Dee Ford.

Not statistically last year. I don't love that they're changing to Steve Spagnuolo, but whatever. At least Bob Sutton's not there. Look, I would lean heavily toward the quarterback rankings, just as they are. And if you see a quarterback with a defense and a kicker that just makes you puke, then you just skip over them. I wouldn't weigh the DST and kicker element into it too much.

I'd weigh the whole thing, and I'd take the Rams first. And we're done. Thanks for listening, everybody. We got a draft today. What happened Sunday? What do you think? Give me your predictions. All right, spoilers. Spoilers, okay. It's not, everybody. We got it drafted. What happened Sunday? What do you think? Give me your predictions. All right, spoilers.

Spoilers, okay. It's not a spoiler. It's a prediction. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but if you don't want to hear anything, the rest of the show is Game of Thrones, so thank you very much for listening, and we'll talk to you on Monday or Tuesday.

I have no idea, and I love that. You have no idea? I have no idea what's going to happen. I feel I love it. I think it's very unpredictable could go a lot of directions over under 30 gray worm kills he's gonna be so mad yeah he's gonna go crazy dude i don't know i don't know i didn't watch this i never watched

the uh coming up on the you know scenes from the next episode so i really don't know if Jon Snow, is the army going to be there? Yeah, they're there. Is the Iron Islands involved? Is she coming back? You would think so. I think that I think the Hound of the Mountain will meet this week.

Dude, I swear to God, I have no idea what's going to happen. I don't. Me neither. I'm curious, me neither. Yeah. I'm curious, based on the time travel ability that they have now, that Jamie makes it back in time. Right. Yeah, he'll catch up.

He'll take an Uber. Who does he fight? He'll Uber. But does he want to save Cersei? Does he care? Or does he just want to save his baby? He wants to save Cersei? Does he care? Or does he just want to save his baby? He wants to save Cersei.

I don't know how that one's going to go. I feel like he's going to turn good and he's going to kill her and kill his own baby. And then he and Brienne go live happily ever after? Yes. Sir Jaime and Sir Brienne? And no, even better. Then he goes and joins Star Wars and she becomes captain phasma i don't get that joke but i'm sure it's very funny okay now we're done thanks everybody we'll talk to you on monday or tuesday have a great weekend happy mother's day and goodbye